Evolutionary game of inland shipping pollution control under government co-supervision

Enhancing coastal ecosystem resilience amid transboundary marine pollution through collaborative governance: An evolutionary game analysis

The loss of coastal ecosystem resilience caused by protracted marine pollution has prompted local governments (LGs) to govern marine pollution, yet the transboundary nature of marine pollution represents a challenge for collaborative governance action among LGs. This paper employs evolutionary game theory to examine the evolutionary stable strategies of LGs with or without the supervision of the central government (CG). The result shows that LGs choosing collaborative governance and CG choosing passive supervision are the optimal evolutionary stability strategies. Further, the sensitivity analysis reveals that the governance cost is the most significant factor impacting LGs' choice of governance. LGs are more influenced by punishment, while CG is more sensitive to incentives. This study points out targeted pathways to raise the integration of marine pollution collaborative governance, and it offers insights into marine governance policy that foster multi-stakeholder cooperation and enhance the resilience of the coastal ecosystems.

Optimizing environmental regulation policies for digital transformation in energy enterprises in China: An evolutionary game theory approach

In response to the global consensus on achieving carbon reduction, China has introduced a series of policies aimed at accelerating the digital transformation of energy enterprises. However, these policies have revealed shortcomings such as deficiency in regulation methods and insufficient integration of regulation with technologies. This study applies evolutionary game theory (EGT) to evaluate the impacts of different environmental regulatory policies on the digital transformation and verifies the effectiveness of the theory in policy optimization. Utilizing modified real-world data, the study quantitatively examines the effects of alterations in various parameter combinations on players' strategic choices. The results indicate that: (1) increasing the regulatory intensity above 0.8, the carbon tax rate and penalties can promote the digital transformation, stimulating the low-carbon development in energy sector; (2) an interesting finding is that tax incentives such as carbon tax refund ratio can exacerbate enterprises' reliance on government compensation, thereby slowing down their transition process; (3) this study highlights the optimal service provision intensity for technological service providers (TSP) is 0.9, which can expedite system evolution towards the ideal state and foster the construction of a favorable digital regulatory environment. The study provides valuable references for optimizing regulatory policies and promoting digital transformation to realize the decarbonization goal.

Evolutionary game analysis between regional governments and shipping companies: Considering the impact of government subsidy on shipping companies

Maritime agencies are imposing stricter limits on fuel sulfur content, and regional governments are encouraging the reduction of various emissions through subsidies. In this study, an evolutionary game model is constructed to analyze the interaction between regional governments and shipping companies under the fixed and dynamic subsidies. The sensitivity analysis reveals the effect of parameters on stabilization strategies. The results show that the bilateral stakeholders can adopt stabilization strategies under dynamic subsidies. The fines, maximum subsidies and extra cost paid by regional governments have a significant impact on these strategies. To reduce the dependence of shipping companies on subsidy policies, it is recommended to improve the LSFO refining technology in the future. Expanding the implementation scope of LSFO subsidy policies will increase the utilization of LSFO by shipping companies. This study offers insights for governments to optimize the LSFO subsidy policy and shipping companies to choose sulfur oxides reduction approaches.

Stability and energy consumption analysis of arctic fleet: modeling and simulation based on future motion of multi-ship

Ensuring the safety of Arctic shipping and preserving the Arctic ecological environment are emerging as key challenges in the shipping sector. Ship collisions and getting trapped in ice are frequently occurring under dynamic ice conditions due to the Arctic environment, making research on ship navigation in Arctic routes significant. Leveraging ship networking technology, we developed an intelligent microscopic model which considered factors such as the future motion trends of multi-ships in front and the influence of pack ice, and carried out a stability analysis of the model utilizing linear and nonlinear methods. Additionally, the accuracy of the theoretical results was further validated through simulation experiments with diverse scenarios. The conclusions manifest that the model can magnify the anti-disturbance ability of traffic flow. Additionally, the problem of energy consumption due to ship speed is explored, and it is determined that the model has a positive intention in reducing speed fluctuations and ship energy consumption. This paper highlights the potential of intelligent microscopic models in studying the safety and sustainability of Arctic shipping routes, providing targeted initiatives to improve safety, efficiency, and sustainability in Arctic shipping.

A dual-core system dynamics approach for carbon emission spillover effects analysis and cross-regional policy simulation

As carbon emission continue to rise and climate issues grow increasingly severe, countries worldwide have taken measures to reduce carbon emission. However, carbon dioxide is continuously flowing in the atmosphere and is easily influenced by neighboring cities' policies. Therefore, how to solve the problem of carbon emission spillover effect has become the key to improve policy efficiency. Cross-regional carbon governance provides a perspective on solving the carbon emission problem by regulating and guiding the cooperative behavior of cross-regional governance actors. Taking Chengdu-Chongqing area as an example, this study used the SDM to analyze the influencing factors and spatial spillover effects of emission. Then we used the system dynamics method to construct a dual-core carbon emission system, and simulated the spillover effect and emission reduction potential of Chengdu and Chongqing emission reduction policies under different policy schemes. The results reveal that the mobility of population and enterprises have a significant impact on carbon emission prediction. Carbon reduction policies exhibit the phenomena of "carbon transfer" and "free-riding." When Chengdu lowers its economic growth rate, it leads to the transfer of high energy-consuming enterprises to Chongqing, increasing carbon emission in Chongqing. The implementation of comprehensive carbon reduction policies in Chongqing has a positive effect on Chengdu. Emission reduction policies exhibit issues related to their temporal efficacy, as the effects of industrial structural policies in Chengdu yield opposite outcomes in the short and long term. Each city's unique circumstances necessitate tailored carbon reduction policies. In order to reduce carbon emissions, Chengdu and Chongqing require opposite population policies.

Assessment of global shipping risk caused by maritime piracy

Due to the frequent occurrence of piracy incidents, normal trade, and transportation activities have been hindered. This paper uses the Piracy and Armed Robbery dataset in the Global Integrated Shipping Information System to analyze the types and evolutionary characteristics of shipping risk caused by piracy and the piracy behavior patterns in different seas. This study found that there are three regions with high incidence of piracy in the world, and their gathering centers change dynamically over time. Piracy incidents can be divided into four categories based on the quantitative assessment of shipping risk caused by piracy. Shipping risk caused by piracy shows different evolution characteristics in different seas, affected by factors such as the evolution of national political situations and anti-piracy measures. Based on the qualitative assessment of the shipping risk caused by piracy, the piracy corpus reflects the diverse patterns of piracy in different seas. In the process of pirate attacks, the diversity is mainly manifested in violence and selectivity. In the consequences of pirate attacks, the targets that pirates pay attention to vary significantly in different seas. This research will help to strengthen the dynamic monitoring of shipping risk caused by piracy, and further contribute to the research on maritime transport safety.

How to optimize dust pollution control in opencast coal mines: Analysis of a joint social regulation model based on evolutionary game theory

The carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals drive innovation in pollution governance systems, unleashing the potential of social supervisory forces to achieve coordinated governance by multiple stakeholders. In order to improve dust pollution control in opencast coal mines, this study combines prospect theory with evolutionary game theory, analyzing the evolutionary game process of coordinated governance activities of coal mining enterprises, local regulators, and social camps in the management of dust pollution against the backdrop of national supervisions. The research indicates that the perceived value of dust pollution has a significant impact on the strategic choices of the three agents involved in the game. Coal mining enterprises tend to be risk averse, and by reducing the cost of dust pollution control and increasing the additional benefits of pollution control, it can promote pollution control behavior by coal mining enterprises. Local regulators are also risk averse, but not sensitive to risk benefits. Strengthening pollution subsidy incentives and environmental fines can help promote dust pollution control behavior by coal mining enterprises. However, increasing the strength of the rewards strategy is not conducive to local regulators' own regulatory responsibilities, and environmental fines have limited binding effects. The strategic choices of social camps' supervision have a restrictive effect on the strategic choices of coal mining enterprises and local regulators, promoting the evolution of equilibrium results in the direction of maximizing social benefits. When coal mining enterprises actively governance pollution, local regulators strictly regulated, and social camps do not monitor, the system reaches its optimal equilibrium state. The research results clarify the mechanism and specific effects of social supervision of opencast coal mine dust pollution control, guide the participation of the public in dust pollution control, and regulate the behavior strategies of coal mining enterprises and local regulators, providing the scientific basis for management.

Above management: Scale development and empirical testing for public opinion monitoring of marine pollution

The marine eco-environment is receiving increasing attention globally, and the rapid development of network technology has enabled individuals to express their dissatisfaction and appeals for marine pollution through public engagement measures, particularly on network platforms. As a result, chaotic public opinions and information dissemination on marine pollution are becoming more prevalent. Previous studies have mainly focused on practical measures of marine pollution management, with limited exploration of how to prioritize the monitoring of public opinions on marine pollution. This study aims to develop a comprehensive and scientific measurement scale for public opinion monitoring on marine pollution by defining its implications and dimensions, verifying its reliability, validity, and predictive validity. The research defines the implications of public opinion monitoring regarding marine pollution based on previous literature and experience, using empathy theory as an entry point. The study uses text analysis to explore the internal laws of topic data on social media sites (n = 12,653), forming a theoretical conception of public opinion monitoring composed of three Level 1 dimensions (empathy arousal, empathy experience, and empathy memory). Based on research conclusions and related measurement scales, the study compiles the measurement items to develop the initial scale. Finally, the study verifies the scale reliability and validity (n1 = 435, n2 = 465) and predictive validity (n = 257). Results show that the public opinion monitoring scale has good reliability and validity, and the three Level 1 dimensions have a high level of interpretation for public opinion monitoring and good predictive validity. This research expands the application scope of public opinion monitoring theory and emphasizes the significance of public opinion management on the basis of traditional management research, increasing marine pollution managers' attention to the public domain of the network. Furthermore, it provides public opinion monitoring instruments for marine pollution through scale development and empirical research, reducing the occurrence of public trust crises and creating a stable and harmonious network environment.

Impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic on carbon emissions from international shipping

The COVID-19 epidemic made the most countries to take strict lockdown measures, what has seriously caused an unprecedented impact in the shipping industries, whereas these measures have also played a significant impact to control carbon emissions from international shipping. Here, we try to use the threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity and the exponential generalized autoregressive heteroscedasticity to investigate whether the fluctuations of the control variable on carbon emissions from international shipping are asymmetric or not. On this basis, the GARCH-MIDAS model is introduced to discuss whether the newly confirmed cases are independent of control variables and have an impact on the fluctuation of carbon emissions. From the results, we find that the information contained in the newly confirmed cases cannot be covered when adding the other control variables. In addition, the newly confirmed cases have a negative impact on the volatility of carbon emissions, while the other control variables significantly increase carbon emissions. This study provides a quantitative research method for the analysis of the volatility and impact factors on international shipping carbon emissions, which helps to formulate more reasonable emission reduction measures and promote the low-carbon transformations of the global shipping industry.

The coordination of collective and individual solutions in risk-resistant scenarios

ABSTRACT

Human societies are constantly coping with global risks. In the face of these risks, people typically have two options, that is, to respond together as a whole (collective solution) or to respond independently (individual solution). Based on these two solutions, individuals have a variety of behavioral strategies. On the other hand, various regulatory bodies supported by the population limit people's choices and punish individuals who do not contribute to collective solutions. So with different risks, how do the two solutions, the various individual strategies, and the constraints from regulators affect the group's response to risk? This paper proposes an extended public goods game model involving opportunists and the regulator to explore the effectiveness of collective and individual solutions against risks. The results show that requiring individuals to invest more in the collective solution reduces the group' s success in resisting risk. To improve the group's ability to resist risk, investment in individual solution should be at least no less than that in collective solution. The establishment fund and punishment intensity of the regulatory agency have no significant effect on the success of collective and individual solutions. This inspires us to contemplate the role and measures of various types of authorities in coping with global risks.

Watershed Horizontal Ecological Compensation Policy and Green Ecological City Development: Spatial and Mechanism Assessment

Green ecological development has become an inevitable choice to achieve sustainable urban development and carbon neutrality. This paper evaluates the level of green ecological city development in the Xin'an watershed as measured by green total factor productivity (GTFP), analyzes the direct and spatial effects of the Watershed Horizontal Ecological Compensation policy on GTFP, and further examines the moderating effect of the Research and Development (R&D) incentives, industrial structure, and income gap. This paper conducts difference-in-differences (DID) and spatial regression analysis on 27 cities from 2007 to 2019. The results show that GTFP progresses to varying degrees across cities over time, especially in the pilot cities. Crucially, the Watershed Horizontal Ecological Compensation policy significantly improved GTFP, although the effect was slight. Interestingly, the increase in GTFP in pilot cities that implemented the policy spatially suppressed the increase in GTFP in cities that did not implement the policy. Our evidence also shows that the positive effect of the policy is higher in regions with higher R&D incentives and industrial structure upgrading, which indicates that R&D incentives and industrial upgrading are crucial. In comparison, the income gap has not made the expected negative adjustment effect under the Chinese government's poverty alleviation policy. However, the positive policy effect is heterogeneous in the downstream and upstream pilot cities. The "forcing effect" of the policy on the downstream cities is more favorable than the "compensating effect" on the upstream cities. Therefore, policymakers should pay more attention to ensuring the effectiveness of the Watershed Horizontal Ecological Compensation policy in enhancing GTFP as a long-term strategy to guarantee the sustainability of green ecological development in Chinese cities.

Evolutionary game analysis of community elderly care service regulation in the context of "Internet +"

Background

As an upgraded form of the elderly care service industry, "Internet + Community Elderly Care" integrates information technology, artificial intelligence, Internet thinking, and the construction of community elderly care service mechanisms. Research on "Internet + Community Elderly Care" has become a focus.

Methods

The four-party evolutionary game model of elderly service regulations was presented, which consists of the government, providers, platforms, and elderly people. By using Lyapunov stability theory, the stability of each player's strategy selection was analyzed. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis of the key parameters was discussed in detail using system dynamics.

Results and discussion

Online evaluations of elderly people have more positive effects on the regulatory system than offline evaluations. Both the penalties on providers and subsidies on platforms given by the government have thresholds. Moreover, government penalties for providers and subsidies for platforms could curb their speculative behavior and enable effective steering of providers and platforms.

Conclusion

The Omni-feedback mechanism for elderly people can effectively curb the speculative behavior of elderly care service providers and elderly care service information platforms. The government should dynamically adjust penalties and subsidy policies.

Modelling driving factors of PM2.5 concentrations in port cities of the Yangtze River Delta

PM_2.5 is one of the major air pollutants in port cities of the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) of China. Understanding the driving factors of PM_2.5 is essential to guide air pollution prevention and control. We selected 17 major port cities in YRD to study the driving factors of PM_2.5 in 2019 and 2020. Generalized Additive Models were built to model the non-linear effects of single, multiple and interactions of driving factors on the variations of PM_2.5. NO₂, SO₂ and the day of year are most strongly associated with the variation of PM_2.5 concentration when used alone. Anthropogenic emissions play complicated roles in regulating PM_2.5 concentration. Although the effect of cargo throughput (CT) on PM_2.5 concentration is non-monotonic, higher PM_2.5 levels are found to be associated with higher levels of SO₂ and CT. This work can potentially provide a scientific basis for formulating PM_2.5 prevention and control policies in the region.

Supervision for the Public Health Services for Older Adults Under the Background of Government Purchasing: An Evolutionary Game Analysis Framework

As an important measure to involve services for older adults, the government procurement practices have become a key link for public health services. However, the information asymmetry between public health service purchasers and public health service undertakers triggers a supervision dilemma. Based on this background, this study uses the evolutionary game theory to analyze the symbiotic evolution between local governments and public health service institutions under different reward and punishment mechanisms, explore game evolution, strategy adjustment, and influencing factors of different game subjects, and analyze the necessity and appropriate intensity of dynamic rewards and punishment mechanisms. The results show that: under the static condition, the penalty can change the strategies of local governments to a certain extent, but it is still difficult to achieve complete self-discipline management of public health service institutions. If local governments implement a dynamic reward or penalty mechanism in the supervision process of public health services for older adults, the equilibrium between them tends to be evolutionary stable. For three dynamic mechanisms, a dynamic reward mechanism is more conducive to adopting a self-discipline behavior of public health service institutions, which is helpful to realize the supervision of public health services for older adults. Also, there is a positive correlation between the proportion of public health service institutions who adopt a "self-discipline behavior" strategy and the maximum punishment intensity, and a negative correlation with the reward intensity. This study provides theoretical and decision-making references for governments to explore the promotion and implementation of public health services in older adults.

The Tripartite Evolution Game of Environmental Governance under the Intervention of Central Government

Environmental pollution management is about the sustainable development effects of enterprises and the quality of life of people. However, the frequent occurrence of various types of enterprises polluting the environment in recent years has revealed many problems, such as the lack of monitoring by relevant central agencies, the ineffective supervision by local governments, and the failure of public complaints. This paper considers the rent-seeking phenomenon of enterprises in pollution prevention and control, constructs a tripartite evolutionary game model between enterprises, local governments and central government, analyzes the evolutionary stability of each participant’s strategy choice, explores the relationship between the influence of each factor on the strategy choice of the three parties, and further analyzes the stability of the equilibrium point in the tripartite game system. The results show that there is no evolutionary equilibrium strategy in the current Chinese environmental governance system; the reward and punishment policies of the local government and central government have a guiding effect on the strategy choices of enterprises in a short period of time, but the guiding effect will gradually weaken after a period of time, and cannot completely curb the irregular strategies of enterprises; the dynamic reward scheme can effectively alleviate the fluctuation of the game system and make the strategy choices of enterprises converge to the ideal state.

Will nuclear polluted seafood stop selling in the blockchain-enabled market? Lessons from government punishment and social cognition for retailer's selling

In April 2021, Japan's decision to dump nuclear wastewater into the ocean has raised worldwide attention. Therefore, to focus on seafood safety from firm and government in this event, we construct a game model to explore the technology-enabled ways to resolve conflict from domestic product and polluted product. Our analysis reveals the potential equilibrium strategy for the domestic product only and two types of products, respectively. Moreover, from the perspective of government punishment, the result shows the existing motivation of polluted product in the market. Finally, we also investigate the five aspects to find the changes of market share for domestic product, including customer choice, product freshness, market uncertainty, geographical distance, and shoddy product, respectively. In summary, this research provides management implications to resolve conflict between two types of products and to realize the multi-party balance of interests and technology-enabled value.

Evolutionary game analysis of environmental pollution control under the government regulation

This paper studied a tripartite evolutionary game of stakeholders in environmental pollution control. Most previous studies on this issue are limited to a focus on system dynamics with two-party game problems and lack a spatial analysis of strategy evolution. The parameters adopted are too few, and the influencing factors considered are too simple. The purpose of the paper is to introduce more parameters to study, which will have an important impact on the strategy choices of participants and the evolution path of the strategy over time. We construct a tripartite evolutionary game model of sewage enterprises, governments and the public. We establish a payment matrix and replicator equations as our method, and we also implement parameter simulations in MATLAB. In summary, we found that the reward and punishment mechanism plays an important role in environmental pollution control. Specifically: intensifying rewards and penalties will help encourage sewage enterprises to meet the discharge standard and the public to participate in pollution control action. However, increased rewards will reduce government's willingness to adopt incentive strategies; Government's reward for public's participation in the action must be greater than the increased cost of participation; Reducing the cost of sewage enterprise can also encourage them to implement standard emissions. The research presented in this paper further improves standard emissions and designs reasonable reward and punishment mechanism.

The Evaluation of Temporal and Spatial Trends of Global Warming and Extreme Ocean Surface Temperatures: A Case Study of Canada

In recent years, extreme weather has frequently occurred worldwide and caused significant disasters, including large-scale forest fires, rare heat waves, heavy rains, floods, and tornadoes. Those have caused unprecedented losses of human lives and property in some countries, affecting the livelihoods of many people. Climate change and natural disasters are the two hotspots of scientific research today, and there is a certain degree of correlation between the two. Although countries worldwide have long known about climate change and its threats to human existence and have been discussing countermeasures, they have still not been able to carry out concerted and practical actions. The study takes Canada as an example, and selects six representative provinces to evaluate the temporal change characteristics of extreme temperature at different sites. We use MATLAB software to perform multiple linear regression, linear fitting methods, and Pearson correlation analysis to analyze spatial changes and time-space trends. The method studies the relationship between the emergence of extreme weather and climate change and uses the evolutionary game theory to explore whether there is any contradiction between global warming and extreme local cold. The study found: (i) The maximum temperature of most provinces in Canada will be constantly higher, and the minimum temperature will be lower. Generally speaking, the average temperature of each year is slowly decreasing. (ii) The average temperature data of British Columbia (Eastern Pacific) and Quebec (West Atlantic) show that ocean temperature has a specific effect on land temperature in surrounding areas. (iii) Pearson correlation analysis shows that the emergence of extreme weather is closely related to climate change. (iv) The evolution path of the two-party game shows that global warming and the occurrence of extreme local cold are not contradictory. Under the conditions, there is a certain degree of synchronization between the two, interacting and influencing each other.

Estimating the effect of COVID-19 epidemic on shipping trade: An empirical analysis using panel data

The unexpected outbreak of COVID-19 epidemic is an unpredictable event in shipping trade. In this paper, we mainly investigate the gaps that occur in the shipping trade between China and different regions during the period February-October 2020 and to provide useful information for operation management of shipping industry. The data include a panel obtained from the National Statistics Institute to analyze the gap where a selected group of shipping trade in three regions are considered: European Union, North America, and Southeast Asia. On this basis, a dynamic panel data model is proposed to estimate the trend. We observe that government prevention and control measures have a negative impact on export trade, while import trade increases accordingly.