Association of Slopes of Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate With Post-End-Stage Renal Disease Mortality in Patients With Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease Transitioning to Dialysis

Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor Therapy and Risk of Kidney Function Decline and Mortality in Inflammatory Bowel Disease

Importance

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is associated with adverse clinical outcomes, including chronic kidney disease and mortality, due in part to chronic inflammation. Little is known about the effects of anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy on kidney disease progression and mortality among patients with new-onset IBD.

Objective

To examine the association of incident use of TNF inhibitors with subsequent decline in kidney function and risk of all-cause mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study used data from the US Department of Veterans Affairs health care system. Participants were US veterans with new-onset IBD enrolled from October 1, 2004, through September 30, 2019. Data were analyzed from December 2022 to February 2024.

Exposures

Incident use of TNF inhibitors.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were at least 30% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and all-cause mortality.

Results

Among 10 689 patients (mean [SD] age, 67.4 [12.3] years; 9999 [93.5%] male) with incident IBD, 3353 (31.4%) had diabetes, the mean (SD) baseline eGFR was 77.2 (19.2) mL/min/1.73 m2, and 1515 (14.2%) were newly initiated on anti-TNF therapy. During a median (IQR) follow-up of 4.1 (1.9-7.0) years, 3367 patients experienced at least 30% decline in eGFR, and over a median (IQR) follow-up of 5.0 (2.5-8.0) years, 2502 patients died. After multivariable adjustments, incident use (vs nonuse) of TNF inhibitors was significantly associated with higher risk of decline in eGFR (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.34 [95% CI, 1.18-1.52]) but was not associated with risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.86-1.21]). Similar results were observed in sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of US veterans with incident IBD, incident use (vs nonuse) of TNF inhibitors was independently associated with higher risk of progressive eGFR decline but was not associated with risk of all-cause mortality. Further studies are needed to elucidate potentially distinct pathophysiologic contributions of TNF inhibitor use to kidney and nonkidney outcomes in patients with IBD.

Associations between abrupt transition, dialysis-requiring AKI, and early mortality in ESKD among U.S. veterans

BACKGROUND

Mortality is high within the first few months of starting chronic dialysis. Pre-ESKD trajectory of kidney function has been shown to be predictive of early death after dialysis initiation. We aim to better understand how two key aspects of pre-dialysis kidney function-an abrupt transition pattern and an episode of dialysis-requiring AKI (AKI-D) leading directly to ESKD-are associated with early mortality after dialysis initiation.

METHODS

We extracted national data from U.S. Veterans Health Administration cross-linked with the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) to identify patients who initiated hemodialysis during 2009-2013. We defined abrupt transition as having a mean outpatient eGFR ≥ 30 ml/min/1.73m2 within 1 year prior to ESKD. AKI-D was identified using inpatient serum creatinine measurements (serum Cr increase by at least 50% from baseline) along with billing codes for inpatient receipt of dialysis for AKI within 30 days prior to the ESKD start date. We used multivariable proportional hazards models to examine the association between patterns of kidney function prior to ESKD and all-cause mortality within 90 days after ESKD.

RESULTS

Twenty-two thousand eight hundred fifteen patients were identified in the final analytic cohort of Veterans who initiated hemodialysis and entered the USRDS. We defined five patterns of kidney function decline. Most (68%) patients (N = 15,484) did not have abrupt transition and did not suffer an episode of AKI-D prior to ESKD (reference group). The remaining groups had abrupt transition, AKI-D, or both. Patients who had an abrupt transition with (N = 503) or without (N = 3611) AKI-D had the highest risk of early mortality after ESKD onset after adjustment for demographics and comorbidities (adjusted HR 2.10, 95% CI 1.66-2.65 for abrupt transition with AKI-D; adjusted HR 2.10, 95% CI 1.90-2.33 for abrupt transition without AKI-D). In contrast, patients who experienced AKI-D without an abrupt transition pattern (N =  2141 had only a modestly higher risk of early death (adjusted HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.01-1.40).

CONCLUSIONS

An abrupt decline in kidney function within 1 year prior to ESKD occurred in nearly 1 in 5 incident hemodialysis patients (18%) in this national cohort of Veterans and was strongly associated with higher early mortality after ESKD onset.

Adaptive Weight Dynamic Butterfly Optimization Algorithm (ADBOA)-Based Feature Selection and Classifier for Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) Diagnosis

Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) are a universal issue for the well-being of people as they result in morbidities and deaths with the onset of additional diseases. Because there are no clear early symptoms of CKD, people frequently miss them. Timely identification of CKD allows individuals to acquire proper medications to prevent the development of the diseases. Machine learning technique (MLT) can strongly assist doctors in achieving this aim due to their rapid and precise determination capabilities. Many MLT encounter inappropriate features in most databases that might lower the classifier’s performance. Missing values are filled using K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN). Adaptive Weight Dynamic Butterfly Optimization Algorithm (AWDBOA) are nature-inspired feature selection (FS) techniques with good explorations, exploitations, convergences, and do not get trapped in local optimums. Operators used in Local Search Algorithm-Based Mutation (LSAM) and Butterfly Optimization Algorithm (BOA) which use diversity and generations of adaptive weights to features for enhancing FS are modified in this work. Simultaneously, an adaptive weight value is added for FS from the database. Following the identification of features, six MLT are used in classification tasks namely Logistic Regressions (LOG), Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), KNNs, Naive Baye (NB), and Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN). The CKD databases were retrieved from MLT repository of UCI (University of California, Irvine). Precision, Recall, F1-Score, Sensitivity, Specificity, and accuracy are compared to assess this work’s classification framework with existing approaches.

Machine Learning Case Study: Patterns of Kidney Function Decline and Their Association With Clinical Outcomes Within 90 Days After the Initiation of Renal Dialysis

A case study explores patterns of kidney function decline using unsupervised learning methods first and then associating patterns with clinical outcomes using supervised learning methods. Predicting short-term risk of hospitalization and death prior to renal dialysis initiation may help target high-risk patients for more aggressive management. This study combined clinical data from patients presenting for renal dialysis at Fresenius Medical Care with laboratory data from Quest Diagnostics to identify disease trajectory patterns associated with the 90-day risk of hospitalization and death after beginning renal dialysis. Patients were clustered into 4 groups with varying rates of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline during the 2-year period prior to dialysis. Overall rates of hospitalization and death were 24.9% (582/2341) and 4.6% (108/2341), respectively. Groups with the steepest declines had the highest rates of hospitalization and death within 90 days of dialysis initiation. The rate of eGFR decline is a valuable and readily available tool to stratify short-term (90 days) risk of hospitalization and death after the initiation of renal dialysis. More intense approaches are needed that apply models that identify high risks to potentially avert or reduce short-term hospitalization and death of patients with a severe and rapidly progressive chronic kidney disease.

Medical nutrition therapy using plant-focused low-protein meal plans for management of chronic kidney disease in diabetes

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Nearly half of all Americans with chronic kidney disease (CKD) also have type-2-diabetes (T2D). Whereas traditional and emerging pharmacotherapies are increasingly frequently used for the management of CKD in diabetes (CKD/DM), the role of integrated or multimodal interventions including the potentially synergistic and additive effect of diet and lifestyle modifications in addition to pharmacotherapy has not been well examined, in sharp contrast to the well-known integrated approaches to heart disease.

RECENT FINDINGS

Low-carbohydrate low-fat diets are often recommended in T2D, whereas low-protein diets (LPD) are recommended by guidelines for nondiabetic CKD with increasing emphasis on plant-based protein sources. High-protein diets with greater animal protein lead to glomerular hyperfiltration, especially in patients with T2D, and faster decline in renal function. Guidelines provide differing recommendations regarding the amount (low vs high) and source (plant vs animal) of dietary protein intake (DPI) in CKD/DM. Some such as KDIGO recommend 0.8 g/kg/day based on insufficient evidence for DPI restriction in CKD/DM, whereas KDOQI and ISRNM recommend a DPI of 0.6 to <0.8 g/kg/day. A patient-centered plant-focused LPD for the nutritional management of CKD/DM (PLAFOND), a type of PLADO diet comprising DPI of 0.6 to <0.8 g/kg/day with >50% plant-based sources, high dietary fiber, low glycemic index, and 25-35 Cal/kg/day energy, can be implemented by renal dietitians under Medical Nutrition Therapy.

SUMMARY

Potential risks vs benefits of high vs low protein intake in CKD/DM is unknown, for which expert recommendations remain opinion based. Randomized controlled studies are needed to examine safety, acceptability and efficacy of PLAFOND.

Association between renal function and cardiovascular mortality: a retrospective cohort study of elderly from health check-up

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate the relationship between cardiovascular mortality in elderly Asians and decline in renal function.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Community-based health examination database from Taipei city.

PARTICIPANTS

At the beginning, the database included 315 045 health check-up visits of 97 803 elderly persons aged ≥65 years old from 2005 to 2012. After excluding missing values and outliers, there were 64 732 elderly persons with at least two visits retained for further analyses.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Kidney function indicators include estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine protein, and rapid decline in eGFR was defined as slope ≤ -5 mL/min/1.73 m² per year. The endpoint outcome was defined as the cardiovascular deaths registered in the death registry encoded by the International Classification of Diseases. We applied a Cox proportional hazards model to analyse the association between renal function and cardiovascular mortality.

RESULTS

In this study, we found 1264 elderly persons died from cardiovascular diseases, for whom the data included 4055 previous health check-up visits. We observed significant and independent associations of eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m² (HR (95% CI) of 60>eGFR≥45 and eGFR<45 in males: 2.85 (1.33 to 6.09) and 3.98 (1.84 to 8.61); in females: 3.66 (1.32 to 10.15) and 6.77 (2.41 to 18.99)), positive proteinuria (HR (95% CI) of +/-, +,++ and +++, ++++ in males: 1.51 (1.29 to 1.78) and 2.31 (1.51 to 3.53); in females: 1.93 (1.54 to 2.42) and 4.23 (2.34 to 7.65)) and rapid decline in eGFR (HR (95% CI) in males: 3.24 (2.73 to 3.85); in females: 2.83 (2.20 to 3.64) with higher risk of cardiovascular mortality. The joint effect of increased concentration of urine protein and reduced eGFR was associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Renal function and rapid decline in renal function are independent risk factors for cardiovascular mortality in the elderly.

Association of Pre-ESKD Hyponatremia with Post-ESKD Outcomes among Incident ESKD Patients

BACKGROUND

Hyponatremia is one of the most common electrolyte disturbances in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients and has been shown to be associated with higher mortality risk. However, the relationship between hyponatremia during late-stage CKD and the risk of poor outcomes after ESKD transition is unknown.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study including 32,257 US veterans transitioning to ESKD from October 1, 2007 to March 30, 2015. We evaluated adjusted associations between the 3-month averaged pre-transition to ESKD serum sodium and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes included cardiovascular (CV) mortality, infection-related mortalities, and hospitalization rate.

RESULTS

Cohort mean±SD serum sodium was 139 ± 3 mEq/L, mean age was 67 ± 11 years, 98% were male, and 32% were African American. Over a median follow-up of 702 days (296, 1301) there were 17,162 deaths. Compared to the reference of 135-<144 mEq/L, the lowest serum sodium group (<130 mEq/L) had a 54% higher all-cause mortality risk (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.54, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.34, 1.76) in the fully adjusted model. Associations were similar for CV and infection-related mortality, and hospitalization outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Hyponatremia prior to ESKD transition is associated with higher risk of all-cause, CV, and infection-related mortalities and hospitalization rates after ESKD transition. Future studies evaluating management of pre-ESKD hyponatremia may be indicated to improve patient outcomes for those transitioning to ESKD.

Different kidney function trajectory patterns before dialysis in elderly patients: clinical implications and outcomes

Background. Identifying trajectories of kidney disease progression in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients may help to deliver better care. We aimed to identify and characterize trajectories of renal function decline in CKD patients and to investigate their association with mortality after dialysis.

Methods. This retrospective cohort study included 378 CKD patients who initiated dialysis (aged 65 years and over) between 2009 and 2016. Were considered mixed models using linear quadratic and cubic models to define the trajectories, and we used probabilistic clustering procedures. Patient characteristics and care practices at and before dialysis were examined by multivariable multinomial logistic regression. The association of these trajectories with mortality after dialysis was examined using Cox models.

Results. Four distinct groups of eGFR trajectories decline before dialysis were identified: slower decline (18.3%), gradual decline (18.3%), early rapid decline (41.2%), and rapid decline (22.2%). Patients with rapid eGFR decline were more likely to have diabetes, more cognitive impairment, to have been hospitalized before dialysis, and were less likely to have received pre-dialysis care compared to the patients with a slower decline. They had a higher risk of death within the first and fourth year after dialysis initiation, and after being more than 4 years in dialysis.

Conclusions. There are different patterns of eGFR trajectories before dialysis initiation in the elderly, that may help to identify those who are more likely to experience an accelerated decline in kidney function, with impact on pre ESKD care and in the mortality risk after dialysis.

Association of Pre-ESRD Serum Bicarbonate with Post-ESRD Mortality in Patients with Incident ESRD

BACKGROUND

Serum bicarbonate or total carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations decline as chronic kidney disease (CKD) progresses and rise after dialysis initiation. While metabolic acidosis accelerates the progression of CKD and is associated with higher mortality among patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD), there are scarce data on the association of CO2 concentrations before ESRD transition with post-ESRD mortality.

METHODS

A historical cohort from the Transition of Care in CKD (TC-CKD) study includes 85,505 veterans who transitioned to ESRD from October 1, 2007, through March 31, 2014. After 1,958 patients without follow-up data, 3 patients with missing date of birth, and 50,889 patients without CO2 6 months prior to ESRD transition were excluded, the study population includes 32,655 patients. Associations between CO2 concentrations averaged over the last 6 months and its rate of decline during the 12 months prior to ESRD transition and post-ESRD all-cause, cardiovascular (CV), and non-CV mortality were examined by using hierarchical adjustment with Cox regression models.

RESULTS

The cohort was on average 68 ± 11 years old and included 29% Black veterans. Baseline concentrations of CO2 were 23 ± 4 mEq/L, and median (interquartile range) change in CO2 were -1.8 [-3.4, -0.2] mEq/L/year. High (≥28 mEq/L) and low (<18 mEq/L) CO2 concentrations showed higher adjusted mortality risk while there was no clear trend in the middle range. Consistent associations were observed irrespective of sodium bicarbonate use. There was also a U-shaped association between the change in CO2 and all-cause, CV, and non-CV mortality with the lowest risk approximately at -2.0 and 0.0 mEq/L/year among sodium bicarbonate nonusers and users, respectively, and the highest mortality was among patients with decline in CO2 >4 mEq/L/year.

CONCLUSION

Both high and low pre-ESRD CO2 levels (≥28 and <18 mEq/L) during 6 months prior to dialysis transition and rate of CO2 decline >4 mEq/L/year during 1 year before dialysis initiation were associated with greater post-ESRD all-cause, CV, and non-CV mortality. Further studies are needed to determine the optimal management of CO2 in patients with advanced CKD stages transitioning to ESRD.

Comparison of annual eGFR decline among primary kidney diseases in patients with CKD G3b-5: results from a REACH-J CKD cohort study

BACKGROUND

Disease-specific trajectories of renal function in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) are not well defined. Here, we compared these trajectories in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) by CKD stages.

METHODS

Patients with multiple eGFR measurements during the 5-year preregistration period of the REACH-J study were enrolled. Mean annual eGFR declines were calculated from linear mixed effect models with the adjustment variables of baseline CKD stage, age, sex and the current CKD stage and the level of proteinuria (CKDA1-3).

RESULTS

Among 1,969 eligible patients with CKDG3b-5, the adjusted eGFR decline (ml/min/1.73 m²/year) was significantly faster in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) patients and polycystic kidney disease (PKD) patients than in patients with other kidney diseases (DKD, - 2.96 ± 0.13; PKD, - 2.82 ± 0.17; and others, - 1.95 ± 0.05, p < 0.01). The declines were faster with higher CKD stages. In DKD patients, the eGFR decline was significantly faster in CKDG5 than CKDG4 (- 4.10 ± 0.18 vs - 2.76 ± 0.20, p < 0.01), while these declines in PKD patients were similar. The eGFR declines in PKD patients were significantly faster than DKD patients in CKDG4 (- 2.92 ± 0.23 vs - 2.76 ± 0.20, p < 0.01) and in CKDA2 (- 3.36 ± 0.35 vs - 1.40 ± 0.26, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Our study revealed the disease-specific annual eGFR declines by CKD stages and the level of proteinuria. Comparing to the other kidney diseases, the declines in PKD patients were getting faster from early stages of CKD. These results suggest the importance of CKD managements in PKD patients from the early stages.

Laxative Use and Risk of Dyskalemia in Patients with Advanced CKD Transitioning to Dialysis

BACKGROUND

Patients with advanced CKD experience increased intestinal potassium excretion. This compensatory mechanism may be enhanced by laxative use; however, little is known about the association of laxative use with risk of dyskalemia in advanced CKD.

METHODS

Our study population encompassed 36,116 United States veterans transitioning to ESKD from 2007 to 2015 with greater than or equal to one plasma potassium measurement during the last 1-year period before ESKD transition. Using generalized estimating equations with adjustment for potential confounders, we examined the association of time-varying laxative use with risk of dyskalemia (i.e., hypokalemia [potassium <3.5 mEq/L] or hyperkalemia [>5.5 mEq/L]) versus normokalemia (3.5-5.5 mEq/L) over the 1-year pre-ESKD period. To avoid potential overestimation of dyskalemia risk, potassium measurements within 7 days following a dyskalemia event were disregarded in the analyses.

RESULTS

Over the last 1-year pre-ESKD period, there were 319,219 repeated potassium measurements in the cohort. Of these, 12,787 (4.0%) represented hypokalemia, and 15,842 (5.0%) represented hyperkalemia; the time-averaged potassium measurement was 4.5 mEq/L. After multivariable adjustment, time-varying laxative use (compared with nonuse) was significantly associated with lower risk of hyperkalemia (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.79; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.76 to 0.84) but was not associated with risk of hypokalemia (aOR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.95 to 1.07). The results were robust to several sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Laxative use was independently associated with lower risk of hyperkalemia during the last 1-year pre-ESKD period. Our findings support a putative role of constipation in potassium disarrays and also support (with a careful consideration for the risk-benefit profiles) the therapeutic potential of laxatives in hyperkalemia management in advanced CKD.

The change in kidney function was associated with carotid artery plaque in a community-based population: A cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

We performed the current study to evaluate the association between dynamic change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and the risk of carotid artery plaque (CAP) in a community-based population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total number of 37,093 Chinese adults (21,790 men and 15,303 women, aged 42.6 ± 11.6 years) free of chronic kidney diseases were enrolled. The change in eGFR was calculated based on two measurements in 2013 and 2014 (mean interval: 1.2 y). Participants were further classified into three groups based on the change in eGFR: fast-decrease (<-3.3%), stable (from -3.3% to 3.3%), and fast-increase (≥3.3%). CAP was annually assessed by ultrasound B model throughout the study (2013-2018). We have identified 1,624 new cases of CAP (16.0 per 1000 person-year) during follow up. Compared to participants with stable eGFR, participants in both fast-decrease and fast-increase groups were associated with 1.99 folds (HR = 1.99, 95% CI: 1.54, 2.57) and 3.15 folds (HR = 3.15, 95% CI: 2.38, 4.16) higher likelihood of developing CAP. The association between continuous change in eGFR and the risk of CAP demonstrate a "U" shape. Sensitivity analysis generated similar results with main analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Both fast decrease and increase in eGFR were associated with the risk of developing CAP in Chinese adults.

Laxative use in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease transitioning to dialysis

BACKGROUND

Constipation is highly prevalent in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), particularly among those with end-stage renal disease (ESRD), partly due to their dietary restrictions, comorbidities and medications. Laxatives are typically used for constipation management; however, little is known about laxative use and its associated factors in patients with advanced CKD transitioning to ESRD.

METHODS

In a retrospective cohort of 102 477 US veterans transitioning to dialysis between October 2007 and March 2015, we examined the proportion of patients who filled a prescription for any type of laxative within each 6-month period over 36 months pre- and post-transition to ESRD. Factors associated with laxative use during the last 1-year pre-ESRD period were identified by multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

The proportion of patients prescribed laxatives increased as patients progressed to ESRD, peaking at 37.1% in the 6 months immediately following ESRD transition, then remaining fairly stable throughout the post-ESRD transition period. Among laxative users, stool softeners were the most commonly prescribed (∼30%), followed by hyperosmotics (∼20%), stimulants (∼10%), bulk formers (∼3%), chloride channel activator (<1%) and several combinations of these. The use of anticoagulants, oral iron supplements, non-opioid analgesics, antihistamines and opioid analgesics were among the factors independently associated with pre-ESRD laxative use.

CONCLUSION

The use of laxatives increased considerably as patients neared transition to ESRD, likely mirroring the increasing burden of drug-induced constipation during the ESRD transition period. Findings may provide novel insight into better management strategies to alleviate constipation symptoms and reduce medication requirements in patients with advanced CKD.

Laxative Use and Change in Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate in Patients With Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease

OBJECTIVES

Constipation is highly prevalent in advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), due in part to dietary (e.g., fiber) restrictions, and is often managed by laxatives; however, the effect of laxative use on kidney function in advanced CKD remains unclear. We aimed to examine the association of laxative use with longitudinal change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in patients with advanced CKD.

DESIGN AND METHODS

In a retrospective cohort of 43,622 US veterans transitioning to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) from 2007 to 2015, we estimated changes in eGFR (slope) by linear mixed-effects models using ≥2 available outpatient eGFR measurements during the 2-year period before transition to ESRD. The association of laxative use with change in eGFR was examined by testing the interaction of time-varying laxative use with time for eGFR slope in the mixed-effects models with adjustment for fixed and time-varying confounders.

RESULTS

Laxatives were prescribed in 49.8% of patients during the last 2-year pre-ESRD period. In the crude model, time-varying laxative use was modestly associated with more progressive eGFR decline compared with non-use of laxatives (median [interquartile interval] -7.1 [-11.9, -4.3] vs. -6.8 [-11.6, -4.0] mL/min/1.73 m²/year, P < .001). After multivariable adjustment, a faster eGFR decline associated with laxative use (vs. non-use of laxatives) remained statistically significant, although the between-group difference in eGFR slope was minimal (median [interquartile interval] -8.8 [-12.9, -5.9] vs. -8.6 [-12.6, -5.6] mL/min/1.73 m²/year, P < .001). The significant association was no longer evident across different types of laxatives (i.e., stool softeners, stimulants, or hyperosmotics).

CONCLUSIONS

There was a clinically negligible association of laxative use with change in eGFR during the last 2-year pre-ESRD period, suggesting the renal safety profile of laxatives in advanced CKD patients.

First-year estimated glomerular filtration rate variability after pre-end-stage renal disease program enrollment and adverse outcomes of chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND

Scarce evidence associates the first-year estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) variability and longitudinal change scales concomitantly to the risk of developing end-stage renal disease (ESRD), acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and death following pre-ESRD program enrollment in chronic kidney disease (CKD).

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of 5092 CKD patients receiving multidisciplinary care between 2003 and 2015 with careful ascertainment of ESRD, ACS and death during the follow-up. First-year eGFR variability and longitudinal change scales that were based on all first-year eGFR measurements included coefficient of variation of eGFR (eGFR-CV), percent change (eGFR-PC), absolute difference (eGFR-AD), slope (eGFR-slope) and area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 786 incident ESRD, 292 ACS and 410 death events occurred during the follow-up. In the multiple Cox regression, the fully adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of progression to ESRD for each unit change in eGFR-CV, eGFR-PC, eGFR-AD, eGFR-slope, eGFR-AUC were 1.03 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.04], 1.04 (1.03-1.04), 1.16 (1.14-1.18), 1.16 (1.14-1.17) and 1.04 (1.03-1.04), respectively. The adjusted HRs for incident ESRD comparing the extreme with the reference quartiles of eGFR-CV, eGFR-PC, eGFR-AD, eGFR-slope and eGFR-AUC were 2.67 (95% CI 2.11-3.38), 8.34 (6.33-10.98), 19.08 (11.89-30.62), 13.08 (8.32-20.55) and 6.35 (4.96-8.13), respectively. Similar direction of the effects on the risk of developing ACS and mortality was observed. In the 2 × 2 risk matrices, patients with the highest quartile of eGFR-CV and concomitantly with the most severely declining quartiles of any other longitudinal eGFR change scale had the highest risk of all outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

The dynamics of eGFR changes, both overall variability and longitudinal changes, over the first year following pre-ESRD program enrollment are crucial prognostic factors for the risk of progression to ESRD, ACS and deaths among patients with CKD. A risk matrix combining the first-year eGFR variability and longitudinal change scales following pre-ESRD enrollment is a novel approach for risk characterization in CKD care. Randomized trials in CKD may be required to ascertain comparable baseline eGFR dynamics.

Prognostic significance of pre-end-stage renal disease serum alkaline phosphatase for post-end-stage renal disease mortality in late-stage chronic kidney disease patients transitioning to dialysis

Background

Higher serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels have been associated with excess mortality in patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (NDD-CKD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). However, little is known about the impact of late-stage NDD-CKD ALP levels on outcomes after dialysis initiation.

Methods

Among 17 732 US veterans who transitioned to dialysis between October 2007 and September 2011, we examined the association of serum ALP levels averaged over the last 6 months of the pre-ESRD transition period ('prelude period') with all-cause, cardiovascular and infection-related mortality following dialysis initiation, using Cox (for all-cause mortality) and competing risk (for cause-specific mortality) regressions adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, medications, estimated glomerular filtration rate and serum albumin levels over the 6-month prelude period, and vascular access type at dialysis initiation.

Results

During a median follow-up of 2.0 (interquartile range, 1.1-3.2) years following dialysis initiation, a total of 9196 all-cause deaths occurred. Higher ALP levels were incrementally associated with higher all-cause, cardiovascular and infection-related mortality. Compared with patients in the lowest ALP quartile (<66.0 U/L), those in the highest quartile (≥111.1 U/L) had multivariable-adjusted hazard/subhazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of 1.42 (1.34-1.51), 1.43 (1.09-1.88) and 1.39 (1.09-1.78) for all-cause, cardiovascular and infection-related mortality, respectively. The associations remained consistent in various subgroups and after further adjustment for liver enzymes, serum phosphorus and intact parathyroid hormone levels.

Conclusions

Higher pre-ESRD serum ALP levels are independently associated with higher post-ESRD mortality risk. Further studies are warranted to determine if interventions that lower pre-ESRD ALP levels reduce mortality in incident dialysis patients.

Machine Learning to Identify Dialysis Patients at High Death Risk

Introduction

Given the high mortality rate within the first year of dialysis initiation, an accurate estimation of postdialysis mortality could help patients and clinicians in decision making about initiation of dialysis. We aimed to use machine learning (ML) by incorporating complex information from electronic health records to predict patients at risk for postdialysis short-term mortality.

Methods

This study was carried out on a contemporary cohort of 27,615 US veterans with incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD). We implemented a random forest method on 49 variables obtained before dialysis transition to predict outcomes of 30-, 90-, 180-, and 365-day all-cause mortality after dialysis initiation.

Results

The mean (±SD) age of our cohort was 68.7 ± 11.2 years, 98.1% of patients were men, 29.4% were African American, and 71.4% were diabetic. The final random forest model provided C-statistics (95% confidence intervals) of 0.7185 (0.6994–0.7377), 0.7446 (0.7346–0.7546), 0.7504 (0.7425–0.7583), and 0.7488 (0.7421–0.7554) for predicting risk of death within the 4 different time windows. The models showed good internal validity and replicated well in patients with various demographic and clinical characteristics and provided similar or better performance compared with other ML algorithms. Results may not be generalizable to non-veterans. Use of predictors available in electronic medical records has limited the assessment of number of predictors.

Conclusion

We implemented and ML-based method to accurately predict short-term postdialysis mortality in patients with incident ESRD. Our models could aid patients and clinicians in better decision making about the best course of action in patients approaching ESRD.

Development and Validation of Prediction Scores for Early Mortality at Transition to Dialysis

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a risk prediction model that would help individualize treatment and improve the shared decision-making process between clinicians and patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We developed a risk prediction tool for mortality during the first year of dialysis based on pre-end-stage renal disease characteristics in a cohort of 35,878 US veterans with incident end-stage renal disease who transitioned to dialysis treatment between October 1, 2007, and March 31, 2014 and then externally validated this tool among 4284 patients in the Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) health care system who transitioned to dialysis treatment between January 1, 2007, and September 30, 2015.

RESULTS

To ensure model goodness of fit, 2 separate models were selected for patients whose last estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) before dialysis initiation was less than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or higher. Model discrimination in the internal validation cohort of veterans resulted in C statistics of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.70-0.72) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.65-0.67) among patients with eGFR lower than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² and 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or higher, respectively. In the KPSC external validation cohort, the developed risk score exhibited C statistics of 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.79) in men and 0.74 (95% CI, 0.71-0.76) in women with eGFR lower than 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67-0.74) in men and 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) in women with eGFR of 15 mL/min per 1.73 m² or higher.

CONCLUSION

A new risk prediction tool for mortality during the first year after transition to dialysis (available at www.DialysisScore.com) was developed in the large national Veterans Affairs cohort and validated with good performance in the racially, ethnically, and gender diverse KPSC cohort. This risk prediction tool will help identify high-risk populations and guide management strategies at the transition to dialysis.

Predialysis Kidney Function and Its Rate of Decline Predict Mortality and Hospitalizations After Starting Dialysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether kidney function level and its rate of decline in the immediate predialysis period among veterans transitioning to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) predict postdialysis mortality and hospitalization.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In 19,985 veterans transitioning to ESRD during the period October 1, 2007, to March 30, 2014, we examined kidney function and its slope over the final year of the pre-ESRD(prelude) period. Two categories of low vs high estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR, dichotomized at 10 mL/min/1.73 m²) and slow vs fast slope (dichotomized at -10 mL/min/1.73 m²/y) were combined into 4 groups. Their associations with 12-month post-ESRD all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality and hospitalization rates were examined in adjusted models accounting for clinical characteristics and laboratory measurements at transition.

RESULTS

Patients, 66±11 years old, and 34% blacks, had a median (interquartile range) eGFR at transition and slope of 9.7 (7.1-13.3) mL/min/1.73 m² and -10.5 (-18.8 to -5.9) mL/min/1.73 m²/y, respectively. Patients with a low eGFR and slow slope had the lowest 12-month all-cause and CV mortality risks and hospitalization rate. Conversely, patients with high eGFR and fast slope had the highest risk of all-cause and CV mortality and hospitalization rate compared with patients with a low eGFR and slow slope. This relationship persisted in sensitivity analyses, including propensity scoring.

CONCLUSION

A kidney profile of a low eGFR and slow slope in the prelude period is associated with favorable early dialysis outcomes in veteran patients. Trials to examine a more conservative approach to dialysis are warranted.

Hypoglycemia-Related Hospitalizations and Mortality Among Patients With Diabetes Transitioning to Dialysis

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Diabetic patients with declining kidney function are at heightened risk for hypoglycemia. We sought to determine whether hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations in the interval before dialysis therapy initiation are associated with post-end-stage renal disease (ESRD) mortality among incident patients with ESRD with diabetes.

STUDY DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

US veterans from the national Veterans Affairs database with diabetes and chronic kidney disease transitioning to dialysis therapy from October 2007 to September 2011.

EXPOSURE

Hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations during the pre-ESRD period and antidiabetic medication regimens.

OUTCOME

The outcome of post-ESRD all-cause mortality was evaluated relative to pre-ESRD hypoglycemia. The outcome of pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalization was evaluated relative to antidiabetic medication regimens.

ANALYTIC APPROACH

We examined whether the occurrence and frequency of pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations are associated with post-ESRD mortality using Cox regression models adjusted for case-mix covariates. In a subcohort of patients prescribed 0 to 2 oral antidiabetic drugs and/or insulin, we examined the 12 most commonly prescribed antidiabetic medication regimens and risk for pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalization using logistic regression models adjusted for case-mix covariates.

RESULTS

Among 30,156 patients who met eligibility criteria, the occurrence of pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalization(s) was associated with higher post-ESRD mortality risk: adjusted HR (aHR), 1.25; 95% CI, 1.17-1.34 (reference group: no hypoglycemia hospitalization). Increasing frequency of hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations was independently associated with incrementally higher mortality risk: aHRs of 1.21 (95% CI, 1.12-1.30), 1.47 (95% CI, 1.19-1.82), and 2.07 (95% CI, 1.46-2.95) for 1, 2, and 3 or more hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations, respectively (reference group: no hypoglycemia hospitalization). Compared with patients who were prescribed neither oral antidiabetic drugs nor insulin, medication regimens that included sulfonylureas and/or insulin were associated with higher risk for hypoglycemia.

LIMITATIONS

Residual confounding cannot be excluded.

CONCLUSIONS

Among incident patients with ESRD with diabetes, a dose-dependent relationship between frequency of pre-ESRD hypoglycemia-related hospitalizations and post-ESRD mortality was observed. Further study of diabetic management strategies that prevent hypoglycemia as patients with chronic kidney disease transition to ESRD are warranted.

Dialysis Provider and Outcomes among United States Veterans Who Transition to Dialysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Veterans with ESKD initiate dialysis under the Veterans Health Administration (VHA), an integrated health system, or are outsourced to non-VHA providers. It is unknown whether outcomes differ according to their dialysis provider at initiation. We sought to evaluate the association between dialysis provider and mortality and hospitalization among United States veterans initiating dialysis.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

Among 68,727 United States veterans who initiated dialysis in 2007-2014, we examined the association of dialysis provider (VHA versus non-VHA) at initiation with mortality and hospitalization rates in the first 12 months post-initiation. Associations were examined across adjusted models, accounting for demographics and comorbidities.

RESULTS

Patients were 72±11 years, 5% were women, 24% were black, and 10% (n=7584) initiated at VHA dialysis centers. VHA dialysis center patients were younger, more likely to be black, had fewer cardiovascular comorbidities, and lower eGFR at dialysis initiation. VHA provider patients were more likely to be hospitalized in the first 12 months (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.14), but had lower all-cause mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.83 to 0.93) in fully adjusted models.

CONCLUSIONS

Veteran patients initiating dialysis with a VHA dialysis provider appear to have a lower mortality risk but higher hospitalization rates than veterans initiating dialysis at non-VHA dialysis units.

Association of Pre-ESRD Serum Calcium With Post-ESRD Mortality Among Incident ESRD Patients: A Cohort Study

Albumin-corrected serum calcium (cSCa) decline at late stages of chronic kidney disease and rise after dialysis initiation. Although hypercalcemia is associated with higher mortality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD), there are scarce data on the impact of pre-ESRD cSCa on post-ESRD mortality. Therefore, we used a large national cohort of 21,826 US veterans who transitioned to dialysis in all US Department of Veterans Affairs health care facilities over 2009 to 2014 to examine the associations with all-cause and cause-specific post-ESRD mortality of (1) cSCa concentrations averaged over the last 6 months and (2) its rate of decline during the last 12 months before dialysis initiation. Mean concentrations and median rate of decline of cSCa were 9.3 ± 0.7 mg/dL and -0.15 (interquartile range -0.39 to 0.07) mg/dL/year, respectively. A total of 9596 patients died during the follow-up period (mean 1.9 years; total 41,541 patient-years) with an incidence rate of 23.1 per 100 patient-years. There was an independent linear association between higher cSCa with higher mortality (p_trend < 0.001). The mortality risk associated with cSCa ≥9.0 mg/dL was attenuated among active vitamin D users (p_interaction < 0.001). Patients with faster decline in cSCa showed lower mortality irrespective of baseline cSCa concentrations. These cSCa-mortality associations were stronger for noncardiovascular versus cardiovascular death. In conclusion, lower pre-ESRD cSCa and faster decline in cSCa were consistently and linearly associated with better post-ESRD survival among US veterans, especially for noncardiovascular death. Further studies are needed to determine if correcting hypocalcemia is beneficial or harmful and which intervention is preferred when indicated among patients transitioning to ESRD. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Decline of kidney function during the pre-dialysis period in chronic kidney disease patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Purpose

Substantial heterogeneity exists in reported kidney function decline in pre-dialysis chronic kidney disease (CKD). By design, kidney function decline can be studied in CKD 3–5 cohorts or dialysis-based studies. In the latter, patients are selected based on the fact that they initiated dialysis, possibly leading to an overestimation of the true underlying kidney function decline in the pre-dialysis period. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the kidney function decline during pre-dialysis in CKD stage 3–5 patients, in these two different study types.

Patients and methods

We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science and Cochrane to identify eligible studies reporting an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline (mL/min/1.73 m²) in adult pre-dialysis CKD patients. Random-effects meta-analysis was performed to obtain weighted mean annual eGFR decline.

Results

We included 60 studies (43 CKD 3–5 cohorts and 17 dialysis-based studies). The meta-analysis yielded a weighted annual mean (95% CI) eGFR decline during pre-dialysis of 2.4 (95% CI: 2.2, 2.6) mL/min/1.73 m² in CKD 3–5 cohorts compared to 8.5 (95% CI: 6.8, 10.1) in dialysis-based studies (difference 6.0 [95% CI: 4.8, 7.2]).

Conclusion

To conclude, dialysis-based studies report faster mean annual eGFR decline during pre-dialysis than CKD 3–5 cohorts. Thus, eGFR decline data from CKD 3–5 cohorts should be used to guide clinical decision making in CKD patients and for power calculations in randomized controlled trials with CKD progression during pre-dialysis as the outcome.

Association of Pre-End-Stage Renal Disease Hemoglobin with Early Dialysis Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Incident hemodialysis patients have a high mortality risk within the first months after dialysis initiation. Pre-end-stage renal disease (ESRD) factors like anemia management may impact early post-ESRD outcomes. Therefore, we evaluated the impact of pre-ESRD hemoglobin (Hgb) and pre-ESRD Hgb slope on post-ESRD mortality and hospitalization outcomes.

METHODS

The study included 31,472 veterans transitioning to ESRD. Using Cox and negative binomial regression models, we evaluated the association of pre-ESRD Hgb and Hgb slope with 12-month post-ESRD all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and hospitalization rates using 4 levels of hierarchical multivariable adjustment, including erythropoietin use and kidney decline in slope models.

RESULTS

The cohort was 2% female, 30% African-American, and on average 68 ± 11 years old. Compared to Hgb 10-< 11 g/dL, both low (< 10 g/dL) and high (≥12 g/dL) levels were associated with higher all-cause mortality after full adjustment (HR 1.25 [95% CI 1.15-1.35] and 1.09 [95% CI 1.02-1.18], respectively). Similarly, Hgb exhibited a U-shaped association with CV mortality, while only lower Hgb was associated with a higher hospitalization rate. Neither an annual pre-ESRD decline in Hgb nor increase was associated with higher post-ESRD mortality risk after adjustment for kidney decline. However, we observed a modest J-shaped association between pre-ESRD Hgb slope and post-ESRD hospitalization rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower and higher pre-ESRD Hgb levels are associated with a higher risk of early post-ESRD mortality, while there was no association between the pre-ESRD slope and mortality. An increase in pre-ESRD Hgb slope was associated with higher risk of post-ESRD hospitalization. Additional studies aimed at anemia management prior to ESRD transition are warranted.

Abrupt Decline in Kidney Function Precipitating Initiation of Chronic Renal Replacement Therapy

INTRODUCTION

Abrupt declines in kidney function often occur in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease and may exacerbate the need to initiate dialysis treatment. It is unclear how frequently such events occur in patients transitioning to chronic dialysis therapy, and what outcomes they are associated with.

METHODS

We examined a national cohort of 23,349 US veterans with incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and with available pre-ESRD estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to identify abrupt declines in kidney function, defined as an unexpected >50% decrease in eGFR at the time of chronic dialysis transition. Associations with all-cause mortality and with renal recovery were examined in Cox proportional hazard and competing risk regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 4804 (21%) patients experienced an abrupt decline in kidney function at dialysis transition. Renal recovery occurred in 586 (12.2%) and 297 (1.6%) patients with and without an abrupt decline, respectively (adjusted subhazard ratio: 4.42; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.72-5.27; P < 0.001). In the first 6 months after dialysis transition 1178 patients (24.5%) with abrupt decline died (annualized mortality rate 574/1000 patient-years), compared with 2354 deaths (12.7%) in patients without abrupt decline (274 deaths/1000 patient-years). An abrupt decline was associated with 45% higher mortality after multivariable adjustments (hazard ratio: 1.45; 95% CI: 1.33-1.57).

CONCLUSION

Abrupt declines in kidney function are common in patients transitioning to chronic dialysis, and are associated with higher mortality. Patients with abrupt declines also experience a higher rate of renal recovery; hence, careful attention to residual kidney function is warranted in these patients.

Pre-end-stage renal disease visit-to-visit systolic blood pressure variability and post-end-stage renal disease mortality in incident dialysis patients

OBJECTIVES

Higher SBP visit-to-visit variability (SBPV) has been associated with increased risk of adverse events in patients with chronic kidney disease, but the association of SBPV in advanced nondialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease with mortality after the transition to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) remains unknown.

METHODS

Among 17 729 US veterans transitioning to dialysis between October 2007 and September 2011, we assessed SBPV calculated from the SD of at least three intraindividual outpatient SBP values during the last year prior to dialysis transition (prelude period). Outcomes included factors associated with higher prelude SBPV and post-transition all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortality, assessed using multivariable linear regression and Cox and competing risk regressions, respectively, adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, medications, cardiovascular medication adherence, SBP, BMI, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and type of vascular access.

RESULTS

Modifiable clinical factors associated with higher prelude SBPV included higher SBP, use of antihypertensive medications and erythropoiesis-stimulating agents, inadequate cardiovascular medication adherence, and catheter use. After multivariable adjustment, higher prelude SBPV was significantly associated with higher post-ESRD all-cause and infection-related mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality [hazard/subhazard ratios (95% confidence interval) for the highest (vs. lowest) quartile of SBPV, 1.08 (1.01-1.16), 1.02 (0.89-1.15), and 1.41 (1.10-1.80) for all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortality, respectively].

CONCLUSION

High pre-ESRD SBPV is potentially modifiable and associated with higher all-cause and infection-related mortality following dialysis initiation. Further studies are needed to test whether modification of pre-ESRD SBPV can improve clinical outcomes in incident ESRD patients. VIDEO ABSTRACT:.

Association between vascular access creation and deceleration of estimated glomerular filtration rate decline in late-stage chronic kidney disease patients transitioning to end-stage renal disease

Background

Prior studies have suggested that arteriovenous fistula (AVF) or graft (AVG) creation may be associated with slowing of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline. It is unclear if this is attributable to the physiological benefits of a mature access on systemic circulation versus confounding factors.

Methods

We examined a nationwide cohort of 3026 US veterans with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) transitioning to dialysis between 2007 and 2011 who had a pre-dialysis AVF/AVG and had at least three outpatient eGFR measurements both before and after AVF/AVG creation. Slopes of eGFR were estimated using mixed-effects models adjusted for fixed and time-dependent confounders, and compared separately for the pre- and post-AVF/AVG period overall and in patients stratified by AVF/AVG maturation. In all, 3514 patients without AVF/AVG who started dialysis with a catheter served as comparators, using an arbitrary 6-month index date before dialysis initiation to assess change in eGFR slopes.

Results

Of the 3026 patients with AVF/AVG (mean age 67 years, 98% male, 75% diabetic), 71% had a mature AVF/AVG at dialysis initiation. eGFR decline accelerated in the last 6 months prior to dialysis in patients with a catheter (median, from -6.0 to -16.3 mL/min/1.73 m2/year, P < 0.001), while a significant deceleration of eGFR decline was seen after vascular access creation in those with AVF/AVG (median, from -5.6 to -4.1 mL/min/1.73 m2/year, P < 0.001). Findings were independent of AVF/AVG maturation status and were robust in adjusted models.

Conclusions

The creation of pre-dialysis AVF/AVG appears to be associated with eGFR slope deceleration and, consequently, may delay the onset of dialysis initiation in advanced CKD patients.

History of psychosis and mania, and outcomes after kidney transplantation - a retrospective study

History of psychosis or mania, if uncontrolled, both represent relative contraindications for kidney transplantation. We examined 3680 US veterans who underwent kidney transplantation. The diagnosis of history of psychosis/mania was based on a validated algorithm. Measured confounders were used to create a propensity score-matched cohort (n = 442). Associations between pretransplantation psychosis/mania and death with functioning graft, all-cause death, graft loss, and rejection were examined in survival models and logistic regression models. Post-transplant medication nonadherence was assessed using proportion of days covered (PDC) for tacrolimus and mycophenolic acid in both groups. The mean ± SD age of the cohort at baseline was 61 ± 11 years, 92% were male, and 66% and 27% of patients were white and African-American, respectively. Compared to patients without history of psychosis/mania, patients with a history of psychosis/mania had similar risk of death with functioning graft [subhazard ratio (SHR) (95% confidence interval (CI)): 0.94(0.42-2.09)], all-cause death [hazard ratio (95% CI): 1.04 (0.51-2.14)], graft loss [SHR (95% CI): 1.07 (0.45-2.57)], and rejection [odds ratio(95% CI): 1.23(0.60-2.53)]. Moreover, there was no difference in immunosuppressive drug PDC in patients with and without history of psychosis/mania (PDC: 76 ± 21% vs. 78 ± 19%, P = 0.529 for tacrolimus; PDC: 78 ± 17% vs. 79 ± 18%, P = 0.666 for mycophenolic acid). After careful selection, pretransplantation psychosis/mania is not associated with adverse outcomes in kidney transplant recipients.

Pre-End-Stage Renal Disease Hemoglobin Variability Predicts Post-End-Stage Renal Disease Mortality in Patients Transitioning to Dialysis

BACKGROUND

Hemoglobin variability (Hb-var) has been associated with increased mortality both in non-dialysis dependent chronic kidney disease (NDD-CKD) and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients. However, the impact of Hb-var in advanced NDD-CKD on outcomes after dialysis initiation remains unknown.

METHODS

Among 11,872 US veterans with advanced NDD-CKD transitioning to dialysis between October 2007 through September 2011, we assessed Hb-var calculated from the residual SD of at least 3 Hb values during the last 6 months before dialysis initiation (prelude period) using within-subject linear regression models, and stratified into quartiles. Outcomes included post-transition all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortality, assessed in Cox proportional hazards models and adjusted for demographics, comorbidities, length of hospitalization, medications, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), type of vascular access, Hb parameters (baseline Hb [i.e., intercept] and change in Hb [i.e., slope]), and number of Hb measurements.

RESULTS

Higher prelude Hb-var was associated with use of iron and antiplatelet agents, tunneled dialysis catheter use, higher levels of baseline Hb, change in Hb, eGFR, and serum ferritin. After multivariable adjustment, higher prelude Hb-var was associated with higher post-ESRD all-cause and infection-related mortality, but not cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratios [95% CI] for the highest [vs. lowest] quartile of Hb-var, 1.10 [1.02-1.19], 1.28 [0.93-1.75], and 0.93 [0.79-1.10], respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

High pre-ESRD Hb-var is associated with higher mortality, particularly from infectious causes rather than cardiovascular causes. Further research is required to clarify the underlying mechanisms and true causal nature of the observed association.

Modeling longitudinal data and its impact on survival in observational nephrology studies: tools and considerations

Nephrologists and kidney disease researchers are often interested in monitoring how patients' clinical and laboratory measures change over time, what factors may impact these changes, and how these changes may lead to differences in morbidity, mortality, and other outcomes. When longitudinal data with repeated measures over time in the same patients are available, there are a number of analytical approaches that could be employed to describe the trends and changes in these measures, and to explore the associations of these changes with outcomes. Researchers may choose a streamlined and simplified analytic approach to examine trajectories with subsequent outcomes such as estimating deltas (subtraction of the last observation from the first observation) or estimating per patient slopes with linear regression. Conversely, they could more fully address the data complexity by using a longitudinal mixed model to estimate change as a predictor or employ a joint model, which can simultaneously model the longitudinal effect and its impact on an outcome such as survival. In this review, we aim to assist nephrologists and clinical researchers by reviewing these approaches in modeling the association of longitudinal change in a marker with outcomes, while appropriately considering the data complexity. Namely, we will discuss the use of simplified approaches for creating predictor variables representing change in measurements including deltas and patient slopes, as well more sophisticated longitudinal models including joint models, which can be used in addition to simplified models based on the indications and objectives of the study as warranted.

Pre-ESRD Depression and Post-ESRD Mortality in Patients with Advanced CKD Transitioning to Dialysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Depression in patients with nondialysis-dependent CKD is often undiagnosed, empirically overlooked, and associated with higher risk of death, progression to ESRD, and hospitalization. However, there is a paucity of evidence on the association between the presence of depression in patients with advanced nondialysis-dependent CKD and post-ESRD mortality, particularly among those in the transition period from late-stage nondialysis-dependent CKD to maintenance dialysis.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

From a nation-wide cohort of 45,076 United States veterans who transitioned to ESRD over 4 contemporary years (November of 2007 to September of 2011), we identified 10,454 (23%) patients with a depression diagnosis during the predialysis period. We examined the association of pre-ESRD depression with all-cause mortality after transition to dialysis using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for sociodemographics, comorbidities, and medications.

RESULTS

Patients were 72±11 years old (mean±SD) and included 95% men, 66% patients with diabetes, and 23% blacks. The crude mortality rate was similar in patients with depression (289/1000 patient-years; 95% confidence interval, 282 to 297) versus patients without depression (286/1000 patient-years; 95% confidence interval, 282 to 290). Compared with patients without depression, patients with depression had a 6% higher all-cause mortality risk in the adjusted model (hazard ratio, 1.06; 95% confidence interval, 1.03 to 1.09). Similar results were found across all selected subgroups as well as in sensitivity analyses using alternate definitions of depression.

CONCLUSION

Pre-ESRD depression has a weak association with post-ESRD mortality in veterans transitioning to dialysis.

Blood Pressure Before Initiation of Maintenance Dialysis and Subsequent Mortality

BACKGROUND

Mortality is extremely high immediately after the transition to dialysis therapy, but the association of blood pressure (BP) before dialysis therapy initiation with mortality after dialysis therapy initiation remains unknown.

STUDY DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

17,729 US veterans transitioning to dialysis therapy in October 2007 to September 2011, with a median follow-up of 2.0 years.

PREDICTOR

Systolic (SBP) and diastolic BP (DBP) averaged over the last 1-year predialysis transition period as 6 (<120 to ≥160mmHg in 10-mmHg increments) and 5 (<60 to ≥90mmHg in 10-mmHg increments) categories, respectively, and as continuous measures.

OUTCOMES & MEASUREMENTS

Postdialysis all-cause mortality, assessed over different follow-up periods (ie, <3, 3-<6, 6-<12, and ≥12 months after dialysis therapy initiation) using Cox regressions adjusted for demographics, comorbid conditions, medications, cardiovascular medication adherence, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and type of vascular access.

RESULTS

Mean predialysis SBP and DBP were 141.2±16.1 (SD) and 73.7±10.6mmHg, respectively. There was a reverse J-shaped association of SBP with all-cause mortality, with significantly higher mortality seen with SBP<140mmHg. Mortality risks associated with lower SBP were greatest in the first 3 months after dialysis therapy initiation, with multivariable-adjusted HRs of 2.40 (95% CI, 1.96-2.93), 1.99 (95% CI, 1.66-2.40), 1.35 (95% CI, 1.13-1.62), 0.98 (95% CI, 0.78-1.22), and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.57-1.00) for SBP <120, 120 to <130, 130 to <140, 150 to <160, and ≥160 (vs 140-<150) mmHg, respectively. No consistent association was observed between predialysis DBP and postdialysis mortality.

LIMITATIONS

Results cannot be inferred to show causality and may not be generalizable to women or the general US population.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower predialysis SBP is associated with higher all-cause mortality in the immediate postdialysis period. Predialysis DBP showed no consistent association with postdialysis mortality. Further studies are needed to clarify ideal predialysis SBP levels among incident dialysis patients as a potential means to improve the excessively high early dialysis mortality.

Association of Glycemic Status During Progression of Chronic Kidney Disease With Early Dialysis Mortality in Patients With Diabetes

OBJECTIVE

Although early trials suggested that intensive glycemic targets reduce the number of complications with diabetes, contemporary trials indicate no cardiovascular benefit and potentially higher mortality risk. As patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) transitioning to treatment with dialysis were excluded from these studies, the optimal glycemic level in this population remains uncertain. We hypothesized that glycemic status, defined by hemoglobin A_1c (HbA--_1c) and random glucose levels, in the pre-end-stage renal disease (ESRD) period is associated with higher 1-year post-ESRD mortality among patients with incident diabetes who have ESRD.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Among 17,819 U.S. veterans with diabetic CKD transitioning to dialysis from October 2007 to September 2011, we examined the association of mean HbA--_1c and random glucose levels averaged over the 1-year pre-ESRD transition period with mortality in the first year after dialysis initiation. All-cause mortality hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using multivariable survival models. Secondary analyses examined cardiovascular mortality using competing risks methods.

RESULTS

HbA--_1c levels ≥8% (≥64 mmol/mol) were associated with higher mortality in the first year after dialysis initiation (reference value 6% to <7% [42-53 mmol/mol]): adjusted HRs [aHRs] 1.19 [95% CI 1.07-1.32] and 1.48 (1.31-1.67) for HbA--_1c 8% to <9% [64-75 mmol/mol] and ≥9% [≥75 mmol/mol], respectively). Random glucose levels ≥200 mg/dL were associated with higher mortality (reference value 100 to <125 mg/dL): aHR 1.34 [95% CI 1.20-1.49]). Cumulative incidence curves showed that incrementally higher mean HbA--_1c and random glucose levels were associated with increasingly higher cardiovascular mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with diabetes and CKD transitioning to dialysis, higher mean HbA--_1c and random glucose levels during the pre-ESRD prelude period were associated with higher 1-year post-ESRD mortality. Clinical trials are warranted to examine whether modulating glycemic status improves survival in this population.

Potential Benefit Associated With Delaying Initiation of Hemodialysis in a Japanese Cohort

Introduction

Late referral to a nephrologist, the type of vascular access, nutritional status, and the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at the start of hemodialysis (HD) have been reported as independent risk factors of survival for patients who begin HD. The aim of this study was to clarify the influence of the HD-free interval from the time of an eGFR of 10 ml/min per 1.73 m² (I_GFR10-HD) on patient outcome.

Methods

We enrolled 124 patients aged older than 20 years who had HD initiated in a general hospital. The predictive factor was the HD-free I_GFR10-HD. The primary outcome was the relationship of the HD-free interval on death or the onset of a cardiovascular event. Survival analysis was performed using the Cox regression model.

Results

The median I_GFR10-HD was 159 days (range: 2–1687 days). The median eGFR at the initiation of HD was 5.48 ml/min per 1.73 m². Sixty-seven of 124 patients (54.0%) reached the primary outcome. Of these, 29 died and 38 experienced a cardiovascular event. In univariate analysis, older age, a history of cardiovascular disease, nephrologic care for <6 months, higher modified Charlson comorbidity index score, poor performance status, temporary catheter, edema, diabetic retinopathy, and nonuse of erythropoiesis-stimulating agent were statistically related to the primary outcome. The unadjusted hazard ratio per log-transformed I_GFR10-HD was 0.393 (95% confidence interval [CI]; 0.244−0.635; P < 0.001) and the hazard ratio adjusted for confounding factors was 0.507 (95% CI: 0.267−0.956; P = 0.036).

Discussion

A longer HD-free I_GFR10-HD was associated with a lower risk of death or a cardiovascular event. The interval could be considered an independent prognostic factor for outcomes in patients on HD.

Effect of Age on the Association of Vascular Access Type with Mortality in a Cohort of Incident End-Stage Renal Disease Patients

BACKGROUND/AIMS

All hemodialysis (HD) patients are generally recommended to create a fistula first; but to create a mature arteriovenous fistula (AVF) can be challenging in elderly individuals. It is unclear if elderly incident HD patients derive a survival benefit from an AVF over an arteriovenous graft (AVG) or a tunneled central venous catheter (TDC).

METHODS

We examined the association of vascular access type (AVF, AVG, and TDC with and without a maturing AVF/AVG at dialysis transition) at HD initiation with all-cause, cardiovascular (CV), and infection-related mortality in 46,786 US veterans using Cox models with adjustment for confounders. Effect modification by age was examined by examining associations in pre-specified age subgroups (<60, 60-<70, 70-<80, and ≥80 years old), and by including interaction terms.

RESULTS

Patients numbering 8,940 (19%) started HD with an AVF, 1,090 (3%) with an AVG, 8,262 (18%) with a TDC and a maturing AVF/AVG and 28,494 (61%) with a TDC without a maturing AVF/AVG. A total of 13,303 all-cause, 4,392 CV, and 1,058 infection-related deaths were observed in the first year after HD transition. Compared to patients with AVF, those with AVG and TDC with and without maturing AVF/AVG had incrementally higher overall risk of all-cause mortality and CV mortality. Only TDC use was associated with higher infection-associated mortality. These associations were not modified by age.

CONCLUSION

Although most of our patients consisted of male veterans and the results may not be generalized to the general population, the use of TDCs is associated with poor outcomes even in the most elderly incident HD patients.

Early Mortality Associated with Inpatient versus Outpatient Hemodialysis Initiation in a Large Cohort of US Veterans with Incident End-Stage Renal Disease

BACKGROUND

Mortality in the immediate post-hemodialysis transition period is extremely high. Many end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients in the US start dialysis in an inpatient setting, but the characteristics of patients starting dialysis as inpatients, and the association of inpatient hemodialysis transition with mortality remain unclear.

METHODS

We examined 48,261 US veterans who transitioned to hemodialysis between October 2007 and September 2011. Associations of inpatient hemodialysis starting with all-cause mortality were examined in Cox proportional hazard models, with adjustments for demographics, comorbidities, vascular access type, pre-dialysis nephrology care and medication use, and last pre-ESRD estimated glomerular filtration rate and hemoglobin.

RESULTS

A total of 22,338 (46.3%) patients received the first hemodialysis treatment in an inpatient setting. Inpatient hemodialysis transition was associated with older age, presence of a tunneled catheter, higher comorbidity burden, and lack of pre-dialysis nephrology care. A total of 8,674 patients died (mortality rate 405/1,000 patient-years, 95% CI 397-413) during the first 6 months after transition to hemodialysis. The starting of inpatient vs. outpatient hemodialysis was associated with significantly higher crude all-cause mortality, but this association was attenuated after multivariable adjustments.

CONCLUSIONS

Transition to hemodialysis in an inpatient setting is more common in older and sicker individuals, and in patients without pre-dialysis nephrology care and those who used a catheter for vascular access. Future studies are needed to determine if a higher proportion of patients could start hemodialysis treatment in outpatient clinics, through interventions targeting modifiable risk factors such as timely vascular access placement or earlier nephrology referrals.

Low lean tissue mass is an independent risk factor for mortality in patients with stages 4 and 5 non-dialysis chronic kidney disease

Background: Mortality in patients with stages 4 and 5 chronic kidney disease (CKD) is higher than in the general population. Body composition predicts mortality. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of body composition on mortality in patients with stages 4 and 5 non-dialysis CKD. Methods: We performed a prospective study of 356 patients with stages 4 and 5 non-dialysis CKD. At baseline, we recorded general characteristics, history of cardiovascular events, body composition, serum inflammatory markers, nutrition and cardiac biomarkers. Body composition was analysed using bioimpedance spectroscopy. We recorded the lean tissue index (LTI), fat tissue index (FTI) and overhydration (OH). During a median (range) follow-up of 22 (3-49) months, we recorded mortality, cardiovascular events and progress to renal replacement therapy. Results: At baseline, mean (± standard deviation) age was 67 ± 13 years (men 64%; diabetes 36%). Mean body mass index was 28.2 ± 12.8 kg/m2, the FTI was 12.3 ± 5.6 kg/m2, the LTI was 15.7 ± 3.4 kg/m2 and median (interquartile range) OH was 0.6 (-0.4 to 1.5) L. Sixty-four (18%) patients died during follow-up. The univariate Cox analysis showed an association between mortality and age, low LTI, high Charlson comorbidity index, previous cardiovascular events, OH, low albumin and prealbumin levels, and high C-reactive protein levels. Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed higher survival in patients with a higher LTI (log-rank, 9.47; P = 0.002). The multivariate Cox analysis confirmed an association between mortality and low LTI (P = 0.031), previous cardiovascular events (P = 0.003) and high Charlson comorbidity index (P = 0.01). We did not find any association between body composition and cardiovascular events or renal replacement therapy. Conclusions: A low LTI is an independent factor for mortality in patients with stages 4 and 5 CKD.

Transition of care from pre-dialysis prelude to renal replacement therapy: the blueprints of emerging research in advanced chronic kidney disease

In patients with advanced (estimated glomerular filtration rate <25 mL/min/1.73 m2) non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (CKD) the optimal transition of care to renal replacement therapy (RRT), i.e. dialysis or transplantation, is not known. Mortality and hospitalization risk are extremely high upon transition and in the first months following the transition to dialysis. Major knowledge gaps persist pertaining to differential or individualized transitions across different demographics and clinical measures during the 'prelude' period prior to the transition, particularly in several key areas: (i) the best timing for RRT transition; (ii) the optimal RRT type (dialysis versus transplant), and in the case of dialysis, the best modality (hemodialysis versus peritoneal dialysis), format (in-center versus home), frequency (infrequent versus thrice-weekly versus more frequent) and vascular access preparation; (iii) the post-RRT impact of pre-RRT prelude conditions and events such as blood pressure and glycemic control, acute kidney injury episodes, and management of CKD-specific conditions such as anemia and mineral disorders; and (iv) the impact of the above prelude conditions on end-of-life care and RRT decision-making versus conservative management of CKD. Given the enormous changes occurring in the global CKD healthcare landscape, as well as the high costs of transitioning to dialysis therapy with persistently poor outcomes, there is an urgent need to answer these important questions. This review describes the key concepts and questions related to the emerging field of 'Transition of Care in CKD', systematically defines six main categories of CKD transition, and reviews approaches to data linkage and novel prelude analyses along with clinical applications of these studies.

Pre-ESRD Dementia and Post-ESRD Mortality in a Large Cohort of Incident Dialysis Patients

BACKGROUND

Conservative management may be a desirable option for elderly, fragile, or demented patients who reach end-stage renal disease (ESRD), yet some patients with dementia are placed on renal replacement therapy nonetheless.

METHODS

From a nationwide cohort of 45,076 US veterans who transitioned to ESRD over 4 contemporary years (October 1, 2007 to September 30, 2011), we identified 1,336 (3.0%) patients with International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification code-based dementia diagnosis during the prelude (predialysis) period. We examined the association of prelude dementia with all-cause mortality within the first 6 months following transition to dialysis, using a propensity-matched cohort and Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

In the entire cohort, the overall mean ± standard deviation age at baseline was 72 ± 11 years, 95% were male, 23% were African-American, and 66% were diabetic. There were 8,080 (18.5%) deaths (mortality rate, 412; 95% confidence interval [CI], 403-421/1,000 patient-years) in the dementia-negative group, and 396 (29.6%) deaths (mortality rate, 708; 95% CI, 642-782/1,000 patient-years) in the dementia-positive group in the entire cohort in the first 6 months after dialysis initiation. Presence of dementia was associated with higher risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.12-1.38) compared to dementia-free patients in the first 6 months after dialysis initiation.

CONCLUSION

Pre-ESRD dementia is associated with increased risk of early post-ESRD mortality in veterans transitioning to dialysis.

Constipation and Incident CKD

Constipation is one of the most prevalent conditions in primary care settings and increases the risk of cardiovascular disease, potentially through processes mediated by altered gut microbiota. However, little is known about the association of constipation with CKD. In a nationwide cohort of 3,504,732 United States veterans with an eGFR ≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m², we examined the association of constipation status and severity (absent, mild, or moderate/severe), defined using diagnostic codes and laxative use, with incident CKD, incident ESRD, and change in eGFR in Cox models (for time-to-event analyses) and multinomial logistic regression models (for change in eGFR). Among patients, the mean (SD) age was 60.0 (14.1) years old; 93.2% of patients were men, and 24.7% were diabetic. After multivariable adjustments, compared with patients without constipation, patients with constipation had higher incidence rates of CKD (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.11 to 1.14) and ESRD (hazard ratio, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.18) and faster eGFR decline (multinomial odds ratios for eGFR slope <-10, -10 to <-5, and -5 to <-1 versus -1 to <0 ml/min per 1.73 m² per year, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.20; 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04 to 1.09; and 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.03, respectively). More severe constipation associated with an incrementally higher risk for each renal outcome. In conclusion, constipation status and severity associate with higher risk of incident CKD and ESRD and with progressive eGFR decline, independent of known risk factors. Further studies should elucidate the underlying mechanisms.