Predicting individual clinical trajectories of depression with generative embedding

A network-based analysis anticipates time to recovery from major depression revealing a plasticity by context interplay

Predicting disease trajectories in patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) can allow designing personalized therapeutic strategies. In this study, we aimed to show that measuring patients' plasticity - that is the susceptibility to modify the mental state - identifies at baseline who will recover, anticipating the time to transition to wellbeing. We conducted a secondary analysis in two randomized clinical trials, STAR*D and CO-MED. Symptom severity was assessed using the Quick Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology while the context was measured at enrollment with the Quality-of-Life Enjoyment and Satisfaction Questionnaire. Patients were retrospectively grouped based on both their time to response or remission and their plasticity levels at baseline assessed through a network-based mathematical approach that operationalizes plasticity as the inverse of the symptom network connectivity strength. The results show that plasticity levels at baseline anticipate time to response and time to remission. Connectivity strength among symptoms is significantly lower - and thus plasticity higher - in patients experiencing a fast recovery. When the interplay between plasticity and context is considered, plasticity levels are predictive of disease trajectories only in subjects experiencing a favorable context, confirming that plasticity magnifies the influence of the context on mood. In conclusion, the assessment of plasticity levels at baseline holds promise for predicting MDD trajectories, potentially informing the design of personalized treatments and interventions. The combination of high plasticity and the experience of a favorable context emerges as critical to achieve recovery.

Structurally informed models of directed brain connectivity

Understanding how one brain region exerts influence over another in vivo is profoundly constrained by models used to infer or predict directed connectivity. Although such neural interactions rely on the anatomy of the brain, it remains unclear whether, at the macroscale, structural (or anatomical) connectivity provides useful constraints on models of directed connectivity. Here, we review the current state of research on this question, highlighting a key distinction between inference-based effective connectivity and prediction-based directed functional connectivity. We explore the methods via which structural connectivity has been integrated into directed connectivity models: through prior distributions, fixed parameters in state-space models and inputs to structure learning algorithms. Although the evidence suggests that integrating structural connectivity substantially improves directed connectivity models, assessments of reliability and out-of-sample validity are lacking. We conclude this Review with a strategy for future research that addresses current challenges and identifies opportunities for advancing the integration of structural and directed connectivity to ultimately improve understanding of the brain in health and disease.

Breakthroughs and challenges for generating brain network-based biomarkers of treatment response in depression

Treatment outcomes widely vary for individuals diagnosed with major depressive disorder, implicating a need for deeper understanding of the biological mechanisms conferring a greater likelihood of response to a particular treatment. Our improved understanding of intrinsic brain networks underlying depression psychopathology via magnetic resonance imaging and other neuroimaging modalities has helped reveal novel and potentially clinically meaningful biological markers of response. And while we have made considerable progress in identifying such biomarkers over the last decade, particularly with larger, multisite trials, there are significant methodological and practical obstacles that need to be overcome to translate these markers into the clinic. The aim of this review is to review current literature on brain network structural and functional biomarkers of treatment response or selection in depression, with a specific focus on recent large, multisite trials reporting predictive accuracy of candidate biomarkers. Regarding pharmaco- and psychotherapy, we discuss candidate biomarkers, reporting that while we have identified candidate biomarkers of response to a single intervention, we need more trials that distinguish biomarkers between first-line treatments. Further, we discuss the ways prognostic neuroimaging may help to improve treatment outcomes to neuromodulation-based therapies, such as transcranial magnetic stimulation and deep brain stimulation. Lastly, we highlight obstacles and technical developments that may help to address the knowledge gaps in this area of research. Ultimately, integrating neuroimaging-derived biomarkers into clinical practice holds promise for enhancing treatment outcomes and advancing precision psychiatry strategies for depression management. By elucidating the neural predictors of treatment response and selection, we can move towards more individualized and effective depression interventions, ultimately improving patient outcomes and quality of life.

Antidepressant use during pregnancy and birth outcomes: analysis of electronic health data from the UK, Norway, and Sweden

Objectives

To explore the association between antidepressant use during pregnancy and birth outcomes.

Design

Cohort study.

Setting

Electronic health record data.

Participants

2 528 916 singleton births from the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink (1996-2018), Norway's Medical Birth Registry (2009-2020), and Sweden's Medical Birth Register (2006-2020).

Main outcome measures

Stillbirth, neonatal death, pre- and post-term delivery, small and large for gestational age, and low Apgar score five minutes post-delivery.

Results

A total of 120 209 (4.8%) deliveries were exposed to maternal antidepressant use during pregnancy. Maternal antidepressant use during pregnancy was associated with increased odds of stillbirth (adjusted pooled OR (aOR) 1.16, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.28), preterm delivery (aOR 1.26, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.30), and Apgar score < 7 at 5 minutes (aOR 1.83, 95% CI 1.75 to 1.91). These findings persisted in the discordant sibling analysis, but with higher uncertainty. The adjusted predicted absolute risk for stillbirth was 0.34% (95% CI 0.33 to 0.35) among the unexposed and 0.40% (95% CI 0.36 to 0.44) in the antidepressant exposed. Restricting to women with depression or anxiety, the association between antidepressant exposure and stillbirth attenuated (aOR 1.07, 95% CI 0.94 to 1.21). Paternal antidepressant use was modestly associated with preterm delivery and low Apgar score. Most antidepressants were associated with preterm delivery (except paroxetine) and Apgar score (except mirtazapine and amitriptyline).

Conclusions

Maternal antidepressant use during pregnancy may increase the risk of stillbirth, preterm delivery, and low Apgar score, although the absolute risks remained low. Confounding by severity of indication cannot be ruled out, as the severity of symptoms was not available. The modest association between paternal antidepressant use and both preterm delivery and low Apgar score suggests that residual confounding by familial environment cannot be ruled out.

The neuroscience of mental illness: Building toward the future

Mental illnesses arise from dysfunction in the brain. Although numerous extraneural factors influence these illnesses, ultimately, it is the science of the brain that will lead to novel therapies. Meanwhile, our understanding of this complex organ is incomplete, leading to the oft-repeated trope that neuroscience has yet to make significant contributions to the care of individuals with mental illnesses. This review seeks to counter this narrative, using specific examples of how neuroscientific advances have contributed to progress in mental health care in the past and how current achievements set the stage for further progress in the future.

Artificial intelligence significantly facilitates development in the mental health of college students: a bibliometric analysis

Objective

College students are currently grappling with severe mental health challenges, and research on artificial intelligence (AI) related to college students mental health, as a crucial catalyst for promoting psychological well-being, is rapidly advancing. Employing bibliometric methods, this study aim to analyze and discuss the research on AI in college student mental health.

Methods

Publications pertaining to AI and college student mental health were retrieved from the Web of Science core database. The distribution of publications were analyzed to gage the predominant productivity. Data on countries, authors, journal, and keywords were analyzed using VOSViewer, exploring collaboration patterns, disciplinary composition, research hotspots and trends.

Results

Spanning 2003 to 2023, the study encompassed 1722 publications, revealing notable insights: (1) a gradual rise in annual publications, reaching its zenith in 2022; (2) Journal of Affective Disorders and Psychiatry Research emerged were the most productive and influential sources in this field, with significant contributions from China, the United States, and their affiliated higher education institutions; (3) the primary mental health issues were depression and anxiety, with machine learning and AI having the widest range of applications; (4) an imperative for enhanced international and interdisciplinary collaboration; (5) research hotspots exploring factors influencing college student mental health and AI applications.

Conclusion

This study provides a succinct yet comprehensive overview of this field, facilitating a nuanced understanding of prospective applications of AI in college student mental health. Professionals can leverage this research to discern the advantages, risks, and potential impacts of AI in this critical field.

Major depressive disorder associated alterations in the effective connectivity of the face processing network: a systematic review

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is marked by altered processing of emotional stimuli, including facial expressions. Recent neuroimaging research has attempted to investigate how these stimuli alter the directional interactions between brain regions in those with MDD; however, methodological heterogeneity has made identifying consistent effects difficult. To address this, we systematically examined studies investigating MDD-associated differences present in effective connectivity during the processing of emotional facial expressions. We searched five databases: PsycINFO, EMBASE, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science, using a preregistered protocol (registration number: CRD42021271586). Of the 510 unique studies screened, 17 met our inclusion criteria. These studies identified that compared with healthy controls, participants with MDD demonstrated (1) reduced connectivity from the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex to the amygdala during the processing of negatively valenced expressions, and (2) increased inhibitory connectivity from the ventromedial prefrontal cortex to amygdala during the processing of happy facial expressions. Most studies investigating the amygdala and anterior cingulate cortex noted differences in their connectivity; however, the precise nature of these differences was inconsistent between studies. As such, commonalities observed across neuroimaging modalities warrant careful investigation to determine the specificity of these effects to particular subregions and emotional expressions. Future research examining longitudinal connectivity changes associated with treatment response may provide important insights into mechanisms underpinning therapeutic interventions, thus enabling more targeted treatment strategies.

Functional MRI correlates of emotion regulation in major depressive disorder related to depressive disease load measured over nine years

Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) often is a recurrent and chronic disorder. We investigated the neurocognitive underpinnings of the incremental risk for poor disease course by exploring relations between enduring depression and brain functioning during regulation of negative and positive emotions using cognitive reappraisal. We used fMRI-data from the longitudinal Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety acquired during an emotion regulation task in 77 individuals with MDD. Task-related brain activity was related to disease load, calculated from presence and severity of depression in the preceding nine years. Additionally, we explored task related brain-connectivity. Brain functioning in individuals with MDD was further compared to 35 controls to explore overlap between load-effects and general effects related to MDD history/presence. Disease load was not associated with changes in affect or with brain activity, but with connectivity between areas essential for processing, integrating and regulating emotional information during downregulation of negative emotions. Results did not overlap with general MDD-effects. Instead, MDD was generally associated with lower parietal activity during downregulation of negative emotions. During upregulation of positive emotions, disease load was related to connectivity between limbic regions (although driven by symptomatic state), and connectivity between frontal, insular and thalamic regions was lower in MDD (vs controls). Results suggest that previous depressive load relates to brain connectivity in relevant networks during downregulation of negative emotions. These abnormalities do not overlap with disease-general abnormalities and could foster an incremental vulnerability to recurrence or chronicity of MDD. Therefore, optimizing emotion regulation is a promising therapeutic target for improving long-term MDD course.

Dysconnection and cognition in schizophrenia: A spectral dynamic causal modeling study

Schizophrenia (SZ) is a severe mental disorder characterized by failure of functional integration (aka dysconnection) across the brain. Recent functional connectivity (FC) studies have adopted functional parcellations to define subnetworks of large-scale networks, and to characterize the (dys)connection between them, in normal and clinical populations. While FC examines statistical dependencies between observations, model-based effective connectivity (EC) can disclose the causal influences that underwrite the observed dependencies. In this study, we investigated resting state EC within seven large-scale networks, in 66 SZ and 74 healthy subjects from a public dataset. The results showed that a remarkable 33% of the effective connections (among subnetworks) of the cognitive control network had been pathologically modulated in SZ. Further dysconnection was identified within the visual, default mode and sensorimotor networks of SZ subjects, with 24%, 20%, and 11% aberrant couplings. Overall, the proportion of discriminative connections was remarkably larger in EC (24%) than FC (1%) analysis. Subsequently, to study the neural correlates of impaired cognition in SZ, we conducted a canonical correlation analysis between the EC parameters and the cognitive scores of the patients. As such, the self-inhibitions of supplementary motor area and paracentral lobule (in the sensorimotor network) and the excitatory connection from parahippocampal gyrus to inferior temporal gyrus (in the cognitive control network) were significantly correlated with the social cognition, reasoning/problem solving and working memory capabilities of the patients. Future research can investigate the potential of whole-brain EC as a biomarker for diagnosis of brain disorders and for neuroimaging-based cognitive assessment.

Rising early warning signals in affect associated with future changes in depression: a dynamical systems approach

BACKGROUND

Predicting future states of psychopathology such as depressive episodes has been a hallmark initiative in mental health research. Dynamical systems theory has proposed that rises in certain 'early warning signals' (EWSs) in time-series data (e.g. auto-correlation, temporal variance, network connectivity) may precede impending changes in disorder severity. The current study investigates whether rises in these EWSs over time are associated with future changes in disorder severity among a group of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD).

METHODS

Thirty-one patients with MDD completed the study, which consisted of daily smartphone-delivered surveys over 8 weeks. Daily positive and negative affect were collected for the time-series analyses. A rolling window approach was used to determine whether rises in auto-correlation of total affect, temporal standard deviation of total affect, and overall network connectivity in individual affect items were predictive of increases in depression symptoms.

RESULTS

Results suggested that rises in auto-correlation were significantly associated with worsening in depression symptoms (r = 0.41, p = 0.02). Results indicated that neither rises in temporal standard deviation (r = -0.23, p = 0.23) nor in network connectivity (r = -0.12, p = 0.59) were associated with changes in depression symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

This study more rigorously examines whether rises in EWSs were associated with future depression symptoms in a larger group of patients with MDD. Results indicated that rises in auto-correlation were the only EWS that was associated with worsening future changes in depression.

Multimodal predictions of treatment outcome in major depression: A comparison of data-driven predictors with importance ratings by clinicians

BACKGROUND

Reliable prediction models of treatment outcome in Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) are currently lacking in clinical practice. Data-driven outcome definitions, combining data from multiple modalities and incorporating clinician expertise might improve predictions.

METHODS

We used unsupervised machine learning to identify treatment outcome classes in 1060 MDD inpatients. Subsequently, classification models were created on clinical and biological baseline information to predict treatment outcome classes and compared to the performance of two widely used classical outcome definitions. We also related the findings to results from an online survey that assessed which information clinicians use for outcome prognosis.

RESULTS

Three and four outcome classes were identified by unsupervised learning. However, data-driven outcome classes did not result in more accurate prediction models. The best prediction model was targeting treatment response in its standard definition and reached accuracies of 63.9 % in the test sample, and 59.5 % and 56.9 % in the validation samples. Top predictors included sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, while biological parameters did not improve prediction accuracies. Treatment history, personality factors, prior course of the disorder, and patient attitude towards treatment were ranked as most important indicators by clinicians.

LIMITATIONS

Missing data limited the power to identify biological predictors of treatment outcome from certain modalities.

CONCLUSIONS

So far, the inclusion of available biological measures in addition to psychometric and clinical information did not improve predictive value of the models, which was overall low. Optimized biomarkers, stratified predictions and the inclusion of clinical expertise may improve future prediction models.

Predicting treatment outcome in depression: an introduction into current concepts and challenges

Improving response and remission rates in major depressive disorder (MDD) remains an important challenge. Matching patients to the treatment they will most likely respond to should be the ultimate goal. Even though numerous studies have investigated patient-specific indicators of treatment efficacy, no (bio)markers or empirical tests for use in clinical practice have resulted as of now. Therefore, clinical decisions regarding the treatment of MDD still have to be made on the basis of questionnaire- or interview-based assessments and general guidelines without the support of a (laboratory) test. We conducted a narrative review of current approaches to characterize and predict outcome to pharmacological treatments in MDD. We particularly focused on findings from newer computational studies using machine learning and on the resulting implementation into clinical decision support systems. The main issues seem to rest upon the unavailability of robust predictive variables and the lacking application of empirical findings and predictive models in clinical practice. We outline several challenges that need to be tackled on different stages of the translational process, from current concepts and definitions to generalizable prediction models and their successful implementation into digital support systems. By bridging the addressed gaps in translational psychiatric research, advances in data quantity and new technologies may enable the next steps toward precision psychiatry.

Prevalence and Associated Factors of Depression, Anxiety, and Stress in University Students in Paraguay during the COVID-19 Pandemic

We aimed to determine the prevalence of depression, anxiety, and stress in university students in Paraguay during the COVID-19 pandemic. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 293 students from four universities in Paraguay in 2021. The DASS-21 mental health scale was used to measure the outcomes (depression, anxiety, and stress) and evaluate their association with socio-educational variables. A total of 77.1% of the participants were women and 136 (46.4%) were between 21 and 25 years old. The prevalence of depression, anxiety, and stress was 74.7%, 87.4%, and 57%, respectively. We found that being a woman and studying at a public university was positively associated with depression, anxiety, and stress. Receiving COVID-19 training increases the prevalence of mental health problems. In conclusion, high levels of anxiety, depression, and stress were found in university students during the COVID-19 pandemic. Being a woman, studying at a public university, and receiving training on COVID-19 were factors associated with a higher prevalence of presenting all the mental health problems evaluated. Furthermore, students aged 31 and over had a higher prevalence of depression and stress.

Computational approaches to treatment response prediction in major depression using brain activity and behavioral data: A systematic review

Major depressive disorder is a heterogeneous diagnostic category with multiple available treatments. With the goal of optimizing treatment selection, researchers are developing computational models that attempt to predict treatment response based on various pretreatment measures. In this paper, we review studies that use brain activity data to predict treatment response. Our aim is to highlight and clarify important methodological differences between various studies that relate to the incorporation of domain knowledge, specifically within two approaches delineated as data-driven and theory-driven. We argue that theory-driven generative modeling, which explicitly models information processing in the brain and thus can capture disease mechanisms, is a promising emerging approach that is only beginning to be utilized in treatment response prediction. The predictors extracted via such models could improve interpretability, which is critical for clinical decision-making. We also identify several methodological limitations across the reviewed studies and provide suggestions for addressing them. Namely, we consider problems with dichotomizing treatment outcomes, the importance of investigating more than one treatment in a given study for differential treatment response predictions, the need for a patient-centered approach for defining treatment outcomes, and finally, the use of internal and external validation methods for improving model generalizability.

Personalized Diagnosis and Treatment for Neuroimaging in Depressive Disorders

Depressive disorders are highly heterogeneous in nature. Previous studies have not been useful for the clinical diagnosis and prediction of outcomes of major depressive disorder (MDD) at the individual level, although they provide many meaningful insights. To make inferences beyond group-level analyses, machine learning (ML) techniques can be used for the diagnosis of subtypes of MDD and the prediction of treatment responses. We searched PubMed for relevant studies published until December 2021 that included depressive disorders and applied ML algorithms in neuroimaging fields for depressive disorders. We divided these studies into two sections, namely diagnosis and treatment outcomes, for the application of prediction using ML. Structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging studies using ML algorithms were included. Thirty studies were summarized for the prediction of an MDD diagnosis. In addition, 19 studies on the prediction of treatment outcomes for MDD were reviewed. We summarized and discussed the results of previous studies. For future research results to be useful in clinical practice, ML enabling individual inferences is important. At the same time, there are important challenges to be addressed in the future.

Brain structural correlates of recurrence following the first episode in patients with major depressive disorder

Former prospective studies showed that the occurrence of relapse in Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) is associated with volume loss in the insula, hippocampus and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC). However, these studies were confounded by the patient's lifetime disease history, as the number of previous episodes predict future recurrence. In order to analyze neural correlates of recurrence irrespective of prior disease course, this study prospectively examined changes in brain structure in patients with first-episode depression (FED) over 2 years. N = 63 FED patients and n = 63 healthy controls (HC) underwent structural magnetic resonance imaging at baseline and after 2 years. According to their disease course during the follow-up interval, patients were grouped into n = 21 FED patients with recurrence (FEDrec) during follow-up and n = 42 FED patients with stable remission (FEDrem). Gray matter volume changes were analysed using group by time interaction analyses of covariance for the DLPFC, hippocampus and insula. Significant group by time interactions in the DLPFC and insula emerged. Pairwise comparisons showed that FEDrec had greater volume decline in the DLPFC and insula from baseline to follow-up compared with FEDrem and HC. No group by time interactions in the hippocampus were found. Cross-sectional analyses at baseline and follow-up revealed no differences between groups. This longitudinal study provides evidence for neural alterations in the DLPFC and insula related to a detrimental course in MDD. These effects of recurrence are already detectable at initial stages of MDD and seem to occur without any prior disease history, emphasizing the importance of early interventions preventing depressive recurrence.

Functional MRI in major depressive disorder: A review of findings, limitations, and future prospects

Objective diagnosis and prognosis in major depressive disorder (MDD) remains a challenge due to the absence of biomarkers based on physiological parameters or medical tests. Numerous studies have been conducted to identify functional magnetic resonance imaging‐based biomarkers of depression that either objectively differentiate patients with depression from healthy subjects, predict personalized treatment outcome, or characterize biological subtypes of depression. While there are some findings of consistent functional biomarkers, there is still lack of robust data acquisition and analysis methodology. According to current findings, primarily, the anterior cingulate cortex, prefrontal cortex, and default mode network play a crucial role in MDD. Yet, there are also less consistent results and the involvement of other regions or networks remains ambiguous. We further discuss image acquisition, processing, and analysis limitations that might underlie these inconsistencies. Finally, the current review aims to address and discuss possible remedies and future opportunities that could improve the search for consistent functional imaging biomarkers of depression. Novel acquisition techniques, such as multiband and multiecho imaging, and neural network‐based cleaning approaches can enhance the signal quality in limbic and frontal regions. More comprehensive analyses, such as directed or dynamic functional features or the identification of biological depression subtypes, can improve objective diagnosis or treatment outcome prediction and mitigate the heterogeneity of MDD. Overall, these improvements in functional MRI imaging techniques, processing, and analysis could advance the search for biomarkers and ultimately aid patients with MDD and their treatment course.

Test-retest reliability of regression dynamic causal modeling

Regression dynamic causal modeling (rDCM) is a novel and computationally highly efficient method for inferring effective connectivity at the whole-brain level. While face and construct validity of rDCM have already been demonstrated, here we assessed its test-retest reliability—a test-theoretical property of particular importance for clinical applications—together with group-level consistency of connection-specific estimates and consistency of whole-brain connectivity patterns over sessions. Using the Human Connectome Project dataset for eight different paradigms (tasks and rest) and two different parcellation schemes, we found that rDCM provided highly consistent connectivity estimates at the group level across sessions. Second, while test-retest reliability was limited when averaging over all connections (range of mean intraclass correlation coefficient 0.24–0.42 over tasks), reliability increased with connection strength, with stronger connections showing good to excellent test-retest reliability. Third, whole-brain connectivity patterns by rDCM allowed for identifying individual participants with high (and in some cases perfect) accuracy. Comparing the test-retest reliability of rDCM connectivity estimates with measures of functional connectivity, rDCM performed favorably—particularly when focusing on strong connections. Generally, for all methods and metrics, task-based connectivity estimates showed greater reliability than those from the resting state. Our results underscore the potential of rDCM for human connectomics and clinical applications.

Conductance-based dynamic causal modeling: A mathematical review of its application to cross-power spectral densities

Dynamic Causal Modeling (DCM) is a Bayesian framework for inferring on hidden (latent) neuronal states, based on measurements of brain activity. Since its introduction in 2003 for functional magnetic resonance imaging data, DCM has been extended to electrophysiological data, and several variants have been developed. Their biophysically motivated formulations make these models promising candidates for providing a mechanistic understanding of human brain dynamics, both in health and disease. However, due to their complexity and reliance on concepts from several fields, fully understanding the mathematical and conceptual basis behind certain variants of DCM can be challenging. At the same time, a solid theoretical knowledge of the models is crucial to avoid pitfalls in the application of these models and interpretation of their results. In this paper, we focus on one of the most advanced formulations of DCM, i.e. conductance-based DCM for cross-spectral densities, whose components are described across multiple technical papers. The aim of the present article is to provide an accessible exposition of the mathematical background, together with an illustration of the model's behavior. To this end, we include step-by-step derivations of the model equations, point to important aspects in the software implementation of those models, and use simulations to provide an intuitive understanding of the type of responses that can be generated and the role that specific parameters play in the model. Furthermore, all code utilized for our simulations is made publicly available alongside the manuscript to allow readers an easy hands-on experience with conductance-based DCM.

Neurocognitive Measures of Self-blame and Risk Prediction Models of Recurrence in Major Depressive Disorder

BACKGROUND

Overgeneralized self-blaming emotions, such as self-disgust, are core symptoms of major depressive disorder and prompt specific actions (i.e., action tendencies), which are more functionally relevant than the emotions themselves. We have recently shown, using a novel cognitive task, that when feeling self-blaming emotions, maladaptive action tendencies (feeling like hiding and feeling like creating a distance from oneself) and an overgeneralized perception of control are characteristic of major depressive disorder, even after remission of symptoms. Here, we probed the potential of this cognitive signature, and its combination with previously employed functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) measures, to predict individual recurrence risk. For this purpose, we developed a user-friendly hybrid machine/statistical learning tool, which we make freely available.

METHODS

A total of 52 medication-free patients with remitted major depressive disorder, who had completed the action tendencies task and our self-blame fMRI task at baseline, were followed up clinically over 14 months to determine recurrence. Prospective prediction models included baseline maladaptive self-blame-related action tendencies and anterior temporal fMRI connectivity patterns across a set of frontolimbic a priori regions of interest, as well as including established clinical and standard psychological predictors. Prediction models used elastic net regularized logistic regression with nested 10-fold cross-validation.

RESULTS

Cross-validated discrimination was highly promising (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve ≥ 0.86), and positive predictive values over 80% were achieved when including fMRI in multimodal models, but only up to 71% (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve ≤ 0.74) when solely relying on cognitive and clinical measures.

CONCLUSIONS

This study shows the high potential of multimodal signatures of self-blaming biases to predict recurrence risk at an individual level and calls for external validation in an independent sample.

Fifteen years of NESDA Neuroimaging: An overview of results related to clinical profile and bio-social risk factors of major depressive disorder and common anxiety disorders

The longitudinal Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA) Neuroimaging study was set up in 2003 to investigate whether neuroanatomical and functional abnormalities during tasks of primary emotional processing, executive planning and memory formation, and intrinsic brain connectivity are i) shared by individuals with major depressive disorder (MDD) and common anxiety disorders; and ii) characterized by symptomatology-specific abnormalities. Furthermore, questions related to individual variations in vulnerability for onset, comorbidity, and longitudinal course could be investigated. Between 2005 and 2007, 233 individuals fulfilling a diagnosis of MDD, panic disorder, social anxiety disorder and/or generalized anxiety disorder and 68 healthy controls aging between 18 and 57 were invited from the NESDA main sample (n = 2981). An emotional faces processing task, an emotional word-encoding task, and an executive planning task were administered during 3T BOLD-fMRI acquisitions. In addition, resting state BOLD-fMRI was acquired and T1-weighted structural imaging was performed. All participants were invited to participate in the two-year and nine-year follow-up MRI measurement. Fifteen years of NESDA Neuroimaging demonstrated common morphological and neurocognitive abnormalities across individuals with depression and anxiety disorders. It however provided limited support for the idea of more extensive abnormalities in patients suffering from both depression and anxiety, despite their worse prognosis. Risk factors including childhood maltreatment and specific risk genes had an emotion processing modulating effect, apparently stronger than effects of diagnostic labels. Furthermore, brain imaging data, especially during emotion processing seemed valuable for predicting the long-term course of affective disorders, outperforming prediction based on clinical information alone.

TAPAS: An Open-Source Software Package for Translational Neuromodeling and Computational Psychiatry

Psychiatry faces fundamental challenges with regard to mechanistically guided differential diagnosis, as well as prediction of clinical trajectories and treatment response of individual patients. This has motivated the genesis of two closely intertwined fields: (i) Translational Neuromodeling (TN), which develops "computational assays" for inferring patient-specific disease processes from neuroimaging, electrophysiological, and behavioral data; and (ii) Computational Psychiatry (CP), with the goal of incorporating computational assays into clinical decision making in everyday practice. In order to serve as objective and reliable tools for clinical routine, computational assays require end-to-end pipelines from raw data (input) to clinically useful information (output). While these are yet to be established in clinical practice, individual components of this general end-to-end pipeline are being developed and made openly available for community use. In this paper, we present the Translational Algorithms for Psychiatry-Advancing Science (TAPAS) software package, an open-source collection of building blocks for computational assays in psychiatry. Collectively, the tools in TAPAS presently cover several important aspects of the desired end-to-end pipeline, including: (i) tailored experimental designs and optimization of measurement strategy prior to data acquisition, (ii) quality control during data acquisition, and (iii) artifact correction, statistical inference, and clinical application after data acquisition. Here, we review the different tools within TAPAS and illustrate how these may help provide a deeper understanding of neural and cognitive mechanisms of disease, with the ultimate goal of establishing automatized pipelines for predictions about individual patients. We hope that the openly available tools in TAPAS will contribute to the further development of TN/CP and facilitate the translation of advances in computational neuroscience into clinically relevant computational assays.

Model-based prediction of muscarinic receptor function from auditory mismatch negativity responses

Drugs affecting neuromodulation, for example by dopamine or acetylcholine, take centre stage among therapeutic strategies in psychiatry. These neuromodulators can change both neuronal gain and synaptic plasticity and therefore affect electrophysiological measures. An important goal for clinical diagnostics is to exploit this effect in the reverse direction, i.e., to infer the status of specific neuromodulatory systems from electrophysiological measures. In this study, we provide proof-of-concept that the functional status of cholinergic (specifically muscarinic) receptors can be inferred from electrophysiological data using generative (dynamic causal) models. To this end, we used epidural EEG recordings over two auditory cortical regions during a mismatch negativity (MMN) paradigm in rats. All animals were treated, across sessions, with muscarinic receptor agonists and antagonists at different doses. Together with a placebo condition, this resulted in five levels of muscarinic receptor status. Using a dynamic causal model - embodying a small network of coupled cortical microcircuits - we estimated synaptic parameters and their change across pharmacological conditions. The ensuing parameter estimates associated with (the neuromodulation of) synaptic efficacy showed both graded muscarinic effects and predictive validity between agonistic and antagonistic pharmacological conditions. This finding illustrates the potential utility of generative models of electrophysiological data as computational assays of muscarinic function. In application to EEG data of patients from heterogeneous spectrum diseases, e.g. schizophrenia, such models might help identify subgroups of patients that respond differentially to cholinergic treatments. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: In psychiatry, the vast majority of pharmacological treatments affect actions of neuromodulatory transmitters, e.g. dopamine or acetylcholine. As treatment is largely trial-and-error based, one of the goals for computational psychiatry is to construct mathematical models that can serve as "computational assays" and infer the status of specific neuromodulatory systems in individual patients. This translational neuromodeling strategy has great promise for electrophysiological data in particular but requires careful validation. The present study demonstrates that the functional status of cholinergic (muscarinic) receptors can be inferred from electrophysiological data using dynamic causal models of neural circuits. While accuracy needs to be enhanced and our results must be replicated in larger samples, our current results provide proof-of-concept for computational assays of muscarinic function using EEG.

Regression dynamic causal modeling for resting-state fMRI

“Resting‐state” functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs‐fMRI) is widely used to study brain connectivity. So far, researchers have been restricted to measures of functional connectivity that are computationally efficient but undirected, or to effective connectivity estimates that are directed but limited to small networks. Here, we show that a method recently developed for task‐fMRI—regression dynamic causal modeling (rDCM)—extends to rs‐fMRI and offers both directional estimates and scalability to whole‐brain networks. First, simulations demonstrate that rDCM faithfully recovers parameter values over a wide range of signal‐to‐noise ratios and repetition times. Second, we test construct validity of rDCM in relation to an established model of effective connectivity, spectral DCM. Using rs‐fMRI data from nearly 200 healthy participants, rDCM produces biologically plausible results consistent with estimates by spectral DCM. Importantly, rDCM is computationally highly efficient, reconstructing whole‐brain networks (>200 areas) within minutes on standard hardware. This opens promising new avenues for connectomics.

Functional neuroimaging biomarkers of resilience in major depressive disorder

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

In this review we provide an overview of definitions and determinants of resilience in the context of neuroimaging research in major depressive disorder (MDD). We summarize emerging literature on functional neuroimaging biomarkers of resilience in MDD and discuss their clinical relevance and implications for future research.

RECENT FINDINGS

Resilience in MDD is characterized by dissociable profiles of activation and functional connectivity within brain networks involved in cognitive control, emotion regulation, and reward processing. Increased activation of frontal cortical brain regions implicated in cognitive appraisal and emotion regulation is a common characteristic of resilient individuals at high risk for MDD and of individuals with MDD with a favorable illness course. Furthermore, significant associations between fronto-striato-limbic functional connectivity and both positively interpreted stressful life events in resilient high-risk individuals and a favorable response to first-line treatments in depressed individuals suggest that neuro-compensatory changes and experience-dependent plasticity underlie resilience in MDD.

SUMMARY

Emerging research has identified functional neuroimaging biomarkers of resilience in MDD. A continued focus on identifying neurobiological underpinnings of resilience, in the context of dynamic environmental and developmental influences, will advance our understanding of resilience and improve approaches to prevention and treatment of MDD.

Advances in the computational understanding of mental illness

Computational psychiatry is a rapidly growing field attempting to translate advances in computational neuroscience and machine learning into improved outcomes for patients suffering from mental illness. It encompasses both data-driven and theory-driven efforts. Here, recent advances in theory-driven work are reviewed. We argue that the brain is a computational organ. As such, an understanding of the illnesses arising from it will require a computational framework. The review divides work up into three theoretical approaches that have deep mathematical connections: dynamical systems, Bayesian inference and reinforcement learning. We discuss both general and specific challenges for the field, and suggest ways forward.

Biomarkers of Pathological Dissociation: A Systematic Review

Pathological dissociation is a severe, debilitating and transdiagnostic psychiatric symptom. This review identifies biomarkers of pathological dissociation in a transdiagnostic manner to recommend the most promising research and treatment pathways in support of the precision medicine framework. A total of 205 unique studies that met inclusion criteria were included. Studies were divided into four biomarker categories, namely neuroimaging, psychobiological, psychophysiological and genetic biomarkers. The dorsomedial and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, bilateral superior frontal regions, (anterior) cingulate, posterior association areas and basal ganglia are identified as neurofunctional biomarkers of pathological dissociation and decreased hippocampal, basal ganglia and thalamic volumes as neurostructural biomarkers. Increased oxytocin and prolactin and decreased tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α) are identified as psychobiological markers. Psychophysiological biomarkers, including blood pressure, heart rate and skin conductance, were inconclusive. For the genetic biomarker category studies related to dissociation were limited and no clear directionality of effect was found to warrant identification of a genetic biomarker. Recommendations for future research pathways and possible clinical applicability are provided.

Deep Temporal Organization of fMRI Phase Synchrony Modes Promotes Large-Scale Disconnection in Schizophrenia

Itinerant dynamics of the brain generates transient and recurrent spatiotemporal patterns in neuroimaging data. Characterizing metastable functional connectivity (FC) - particularly at rest and using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) - has shaped the field of dynamic functional connectivity (DFC). Mainstream DFC research relies on (sliding window) correlations to identify recurrent FC patterns. Recently, functional relevance of the instantaneous phase synchrony (IPS) of fMRI signals has been revealed using imaging studies and computational models. In the present paper, we identify the repertoire of whole-brain inter-network IPS states at rest. Moreover, we uncover a hierarchy in the temporal organization of IPS modes. We hypothesize that connectivity disorder in schizophrenia (SZ) is related to the (deep) temporal arrangement of large-scale IPS modes. Hence, we analyze resting-state fMRI data from 68 healthy controls (HC) and 51 SZ patients. Seven resting-state networks (and their sub-components) are identified using spatial independent component analysis. IPS is computed between subject-specific network time courses, using analytic signals. The resultant phase coupling patterns, across time and subjects, are clustered into eight IPS states. Statistical tests show that the relative expression and mean lifetime of certain IPS states have been altered in SZ. Namely, patients spend (45%) less time in a globally coherent state and a subcortical-centered state, and (40%) more time in states reflecting anticoupling within the cognitive control network, compared to the HC. Moreover, the transition profile (between states) reveals a deep temporal structure, shaping two metastates with distinct phase synchrony profiles. A metastate is a collection of states such that within-metastate transitions are more probable than across. Remarkably, metastate occupation balance is altered in SZ, in favor of the less synchronous metastate that promotes disconnection across networks. Furthermore, the trajectory of IPS patterns is less efficient, less smooth, and more restricted in SZ subjects, compared to the HC. Finally, a regression analysis confirms the diagnostic value of the defined IPS measures for SZ identification, highlighting the distinctive role of metastate proportion. Our results suggest that the proposed IPS features may be used for classification studies and for characterizing phase synchrony modes in other (clinical) populations.