Why the Scots die younger: synthesizing the evidence

Spatial patterns of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 mortality across waves of infection in England, Wales, and Scotland

Recent studies have established the key individual-level risk factors of COVID-19 mortality such as age, gender, ethnicity, and socio-economic status. However, the spread of infectious diseases is a spatial and temporal process implying that COVID-19 mortality and its determinants may vary sub-nationally and over time. We investigate the spatial patterns of age-standardised death rates due to COVID-19 and their correlates across local authority districts in England, Wales, and Scotland across three waves of infection. Using a Spatial Durbin model, we explore within- and between-country variation and account for spatial dependency. Areas with a higher share of ethnic minorities and higher levels of deprivation had higher rates of COVID-19 mortality. However, the share of ethnic minorities and population density in an area were more important predictors of COVID-19 mortality in earlier waves of the pandemic than in later waves, whereas area-level deprivation has become a more important predictor over time. Second, during the first wave of the pandemic, population density had a significant spillover effect on COVID-19 mortality, indicating that the pandemic spread from big cities to neighbouring areas. Third, after accounting for differences in ethnic composition, deprivation, and population density, initial cross-country differences in COVID-19 mortality almost disappeared. COVID-19 mortality remained higher in Scotland than in England and Wales in the third wave when COVID-19 mortality was relatively low in all three countries. Interpreting these results in the context of higher overall (long-term) non-COVID-19 mortality in Scotland suggests that Scotland may have performed better than expected during the first two waves. Our study highlights that accounting for both spatial and temporal factors is essential for understanding social and demographic risk factors of mortality during pandemics.

Temperature-related mortality and associated vulnerabilities: evidence from Scotland using extended time-series datasets

BACKGROUND

Adverse health impacts have been found under extreme temperatures in many parts of the world. The majority of such research to date for the UK has been conducted on populations in England, whilst the impacts of ambient temperature on health outcomes in Scottish populations remain largely unknown.

METHODS

This study uses time-series regression analysis with distributed lag non-linear models to characterise acute relationships between daily mean ambient temperature and mortality in Scotland including the four largest cities (Aberdeen, Dundee, Edinburgh and Glasgow) and three regions during 1974-2018. Increases in mortality risk under extreme cold and heat in individual cities and regions were aggregated using multivariate meta-analysis. Cold results are summarised by comparing the relative risk (RR) of death at the 1st percentile of localised temperature distributions compared to the 10th percentile, and heat effects as the RR at the 99th compared to the 90th percentile.

RESULTS

Adverse cold effects were observed in all cities and regions, and heat effects were apparent in all cities and regions except northern Scotland. Aggregate all-cause mortality risk in Scotland was estimated to increase by 10% (95% confidence interval, CI: 7%, 13%) under extreme cold and 4% (CI: 2%, 5%) under extreme heat. People in urban areas experienced higher mortality risk under extreme cold and heat than those in rural regions. The elderly had the highest RR under both extreme cold and heat. Males experienced greater cold effects than females, whereas the reverse was true with heat effects, particularly among the elderly. Those who were unmarried had higher RR than those married under extreme heat, and the effect remained after controlling for age. The younger population living in the most deprived areas experienced higher cold and heat effects than in less deprived areas. Deaths from respiratory diseases were most sensitive to both cold and heat exposures, although mortality risk for cardiovascular diseases was also heightened, particularly in the elderly. Cold effects were lower in the most recent 15 years, which may be linked to policies and actions in preventing the vulnerable population from cold impacts. No temporal trend was found with the heat effect.

CONCLUSIONS

This study assesses mortality risk associated with extreme temperatures in Scotland and identifies those groups who would benefit most from targeted actions to reduce cold- and heat-related mortalities.

Microcredit as a public health initiative? Exploring mechanisms and pathways to health and wellbeing

The widening health gap between the best and worst-off in the UK requires innovative solutions that act upon the social, economic and environmental causes of ill-health. Initiatives such as microcredit have been conceptualised as having the potential to act on the social determinants of health. However, pathways that lead to this impact have yet to be empirically explored. People living on low incomes, who are financially-excluded, require access to credit to cope with everyday financial needs. While research shows the connections between debt and health, this link is often focused on over-indebtedness and negative health outcomes. In this paper, we investigate the impact of responsibly-delivered credit on the health and wellbeing of borrowers. In 2016-17, in-depth, semi-structured interviews were undertaken with fourteen borrowers from two microcredit providers offering personal and business microloans, operating in Glasgow, United Kingdom. Findings are presented, using social determinants of health as an analytic lens, and illustrated in a conceptual model explaining the loan mechanisms and pathways connecting microcredit to health and wellbeing. Microcredit, and the mechanisms through which it is delivered, were perceived by participants as positively impacting on their health and wellbeing. Access to flexible, responsibly-delivered, microloans enabled participants to plan and feel secure when faced with (un)expected financial events, reducing the associated stress, sustaining social relationships and empowering borrowers to take greater control over their lives. For some, receiving microcredit was stressful, as it is still a debt that needs to be repaid. Such stress can also be exacerbated by particular aspects of the lending model; for example, group lending. Our results contribute to growing evidence on the impact of financial inclusion approaches on health and wellbeing, highlighting the potential role of microcredit as a public health initiative and the need to support 'alternative' economic spaces in the UK to serve the financially-excluded.

Deaths of despair: cause-specific mortality and socioeconomic inequalities in cause-specific mortality among young men in Scotland

Background

Increasing mortality among men from drugs, alcohol and suicides is a growing public health concern in many countries. Collectively known as “deaths of despair”, they are seen to stem from unprecedented economic pressures and a breakdown in social support structures.

Methods

We use high-quality population wide Scottish data to calculate directly age-standardized mortality rates for men aged 15–44 between 1980 and 2018 for 15 leading causes of mortality. Absolute and relative inequalities in mortality by cause are calculated using small-area deprivation and the slope and relative indices of inequality (SII and RII_L) for the years 2001–2018.

Results

Since 1980 there have been only small reductions in mortality among men aged 15–44 in Scotland. In that period drug-related deaths have increased from 1.2 (95% CI 0.7–1.4) to 44.9 (95% CI 42.5–47.4) deaths per 100,000 and are now the leading cause of mortality. Between 2001 and 2018 there have been small reductions in absolute but not in relative inequalities in all-cause mortality. However, absolute inequalities in mortality from drugs have doubled from SII = 66.6 (95% CI 61.5–70.9) in 2001–2003 to SII = 120.0 (95% CI 113.3–126.8) in 2016–2018. Drugs are the main contributor to inequalities in mortality, and together with alcohol harm and suicides make up 65% of absolute inequalities in mortality.

Conclusions

Contrary to the substantial reductions in mortality across all ages in the past decades, deaths among young men are increasing from preventable causes. Attempts to reduce external causes of mortality have focused on a single cause of death and not been effective in reducing mortality or inequalities in mortality from external causes in the long-run. To reduce deaths of despair, action should be taken to address social determinants of health and reduce socioeconomic inequalities.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12939-020-01329-7.

Who knows best? A Q methodology study to explore perspectives of professional stakeholders and community participants on health in low-income communities

Background

Health inequalities in the UK have proved to be stubborn, and health gaps between best and worst-off are widening. While there is growing understanding of how the main causes of poor health are perceived among different stakeholders, similar insight is lacking regarding what solutions should be prioritised. Furthermore, we do not know the relationship between perceived causes and solutions to health inequalities, whether there is agreement between professional stakeholders and people living in low-income communities or agreement within these groups.

Methods

Q methodology was used to identify and describe the shared perspectives (‘subjectivities’) that exist on i) why health is worse in low-income communities (‘Causes’) and ii) the ways that health could be improved in these same communities (‘Solutions’).

Purposively selected individuals (n = 53) from low-income communities (n = 25) and professional stakeholder groups (n = 28) ranked ordered sets of statements – 34 ‘Causes’ and 39 ‘Solutions’ – onto quasi-normal shaped grids according to their point of view. Factor analysis was used to identify shared points of view. ‘Causes’ and ‘Solutions’ were analysed independently, before examining correlations between perspectives on causes and perspectives on solutions.

Results

Analysis produced three factor solutions for both the ‘Causes’ and ‘Solutions’. Broadly summarised these accounts for ‘Causes’ are: i) ‘Unfair Society’, ii) ‘Dependent, workless and lazy’, iii) ‘Intergenerational hardships’ and for ‘Solutions’: i) ‘Empower communities’, ii) ‘Paternalism’, iii) ‘Redistribution’. No professionals defined (i.e. had a significant association with one factor only) the ‘Causes’ factor ‘Dependent, workless and lazy’ and the ‘Solutions’ factor ‘Paternalism’. No community participants defined the ‘Solutions’ factor ‘Redistribution’. The direction of correlations between the two sets of factor solutions – ‘Causes’ and ‘Solutions’ – appear to be intuitive, given the accounts identified.

Conclusions

Despite the plurality of views there was broad agreement across accounts about issues relating to money. This is important as it points a way forward for tackling health inequalities, highlighting areas for policy and future research to focus on.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-019-3884-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Complex adaptive systems: a new approach for understanding health practices

This article explores the potential of complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory to inform behaviour change research. A CAS describes a collection of heterogeneous agents interacting within a particular context, adapting to each other's actions. In practical terms, this implies that behaviour change is (1) socially and culturally situated; (2) highly sensitive to small baseline differences in individuals, groups, and intervention components; and (3) determined by multiple components interacting 'chaotically'. Two approaches to studying CAS are briefly reviewed. Agent-based modelling is a computer simulation technique that allows researchers to investigate 'what if' questions in a virtual environment. Applied qualitative research techniques, on the other hand, offer a way to examine what happens when an intervention is pursued in real-time, and to identify the sorts of rules and assumptions governing social action. Although these represent very different approaches to complexity, there may be scope for mixing these methods - for example, by grounding models in insights derived from qualitative fieldwork. Finally, I will argue that the concept of CAS offers one opportunity to gain a deepened understanding of health-related practices, and to examine the social psychological processes that produce health-promoting or damaging actions.

Drug-related deaths in Scotland 1979-2013: evidence of a vulnerable cohort of young men living in deprived areas

BACKGROUND

Even after accounting for deprivation, mortality rates are higher in Scotland relative to the rest of Western Europe. Higher mortality from alcohol- and drug-related deaths (DRDs), violence and suicide (particularly in young adults) contribute to this 'excess' mortality. Age-period and cohort effects help explain the trends in alcohol-related deaths and suicide, respectively. This study investigated whether age, period or cohort effects might explain recent trends in DRDs in Scotland and relate to exposure to the changing political context from the 1980s.

METHODS

We analysed data on DRDs from 1979 to 2013 by sex and deprivation using shaded contour plots and intrinsic estimator regression modelling to identify and quantify relative age, period and cohort effects.

RESULTS

The peak age for DRDs fell around 1990, especially for males as rates increased for those aged 18 to 45 years. There was evidence of a cohort effect, especially among males living in the most deprived areas; those born between 1960 and 1980 had an increased risk of DRD, highest for those born 1970 to 1975. The cohort effect started around a decade earlier in the most deprived areas compared to the rest of the population.

CONCLUSION

Age-standardised rates for DRDs among young adults rose during the 1990s in Scotland due to an increased risk of DRD for the cohort born between 1960 and 1980, especially for males living in the most deprived areas. This cohort effect is consistent with the hypothesis that exposure to the changing social, economic and political contexts of the 1980s created a delayed negative health impact.

Mortality, ethnicity, and country of birth on a national scale, 2001-2013: A retrospective cohort (Scottish Health and Ethnicity Linkage Study)

BACKGROUND

Migrant and ethnic minority groups are often assumed to have poor health relative to the majority population. Few countries have the capacity to study a key indicator, mortality, by ethnicity and country of birth. We hypothesized at least 10% differences in mortality by ethnic group in Scotland that would not be wholly attenuated by adjustment for socio-economic factors or country of birth.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We linked the Scottish 2001 Census to mortality data (2001-2013) in 4.62 million people (91% of estimated population), calculating age-adjusted mortality rate ratios (RRs; multiplied by 100 as percentages) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 13 ethnic groups, with the White Scottish group as reference (ethnic group classification follows the Scottish 2001 Census). The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation, education status, and household tenure were socio-economic status (SES) confounding variables and born in the UK or Republic of Ireland (UK/RoI) an interacting and confounding variable. Smoking and diabetes data were from a primary care sub-sample (about 53,000 people). Males and females in most minority groups had lower age-adjusted mortality RRs than the White Scottish group. The 95% CIs provided good evidence that the RR was more than 10% lower in the following ethnic groups: Other White British (72.3 [95% CI 64.2, 81.3] in males and 75.2 [68.0, 83.2] in females); Other White (80.8 [72.8, 89.8] in males and 76.2 [68.6, 84.7] in females); Indian (62.6 [51.6, 76.0] in males and 60.7 [50.4, 73.1] in females); Pakistani (66.1 [57.4, 76.2] in males and 73.8 [63.7, 85.5] in females); Bangladeshi males (50.7 [32.5, 79.1]); Caribbean females (57.5 [38.5, 85.9]); and Chinese (52.2 [43.7, 62.5] in males and 65.8 [55.3, 78.2] in females). The differences were diminished but not eliminated after adjusting for UK/RoI birth and SES variables. A mortality advantage was evident in all 12 minority groups for those born abroad, but in only 6/12 male groups and 5/12 female groups of those born in the UK/RoI. In the primary care sub-sample, after adjustment for age, UK/RoI born, SES, smoking, and diabetes, the RR was not lower in Indian males (114.7 [95% CI 78.3, 167.9]) and Pakistani females (103.9 [73.9, 145.9]) than in White Scottish males and females, respectively. The main limitations were the inability to include deaths abroad and the small number of deaths in some ethnic minority groups, especially for people born in the UK/RoI.

CONCLUSIONS

There was relatively low mortality for many ethnic minority groups compared to the White Scottish majority. The mortality advantage was less clear in UK/RoI-born minority group offspring than in immigrants. These differences need explaining, and health-related behaviours seem important. Similar analyses are required internationally to fulfil agreed goals for monitoring, understanding, and improving health in ethnically diverse societies and to apply to health policy, especially on health inequalities and inequities.

Visualising and quantifying 'excess deaths' in Scotland compared with the rest of the UK and the rest of Western Europe

BACKGROUND

Scotland has higher mortality rates than the rest of Western Europe (rWE), with more cardiovascular disease and cancer among older adults; and alcohol-related and drug-related deaths, suicide and violence among younger adults.

METHODS

We obtained sex, age-specific and year-specific all-cause mortality rates for Scotland and other populations, and explored differences in mortality both visually and numerically.

RESULTS

Scotland's age-specific mortality was higher than the rest of the UK (rUK) since 1950, and has increased. Between the 1950s and 2000s, 'excess deaths' by age 80 per 100 000 population associated with living in Scotland grew from 4341 to 7203 compared with rUK, and from 4132 to 8828 compared with rWE. UK-wide mortality risk compared with rWE also increased, from 240 'excess deaths' in the 1950s to 2320 in the 2000s. Cohorts born in the 1940s and 1950s throughout the UK including Scotland had lower mortality risk than comparable rWE populations, especially for males. Mortality rates were higher in Scotland than rUK and rWE among younger adults from the 1990s onwards suggesting an age-period interaction.

CONCLUSIONS

Worsening mortality among young adults in the past 30 years reversed a relative advantage evident for those born between 1950 and 1960. Compared with rWE, Scotland and rUK have followed similar trends but Scotland has started from a worse position and had worse working age-period effects in the 1990s and 2000s.

Do differences in religious affiliation explain high levels of excess mortality in the UK?

BACKGROUND

High levels of mortality not explained by differences in socioeconomic status (SES) have been observed for Scotland and its largest city, Glasgow, compared with elsewhere in the UK. Previous cross-sectional research highlighted potentially relevant differences in social capital, including religious social capital (the benefits of social participation in organised religion). The aim of this study was to use longitudinal data to assess whether religious affiliation (as measured in UK censuses) attenuated the high levels of Scottish excess mortality.

METHODS

The study used the Scottish Longitudinal Study (SLS) and the ONS Longitudinal Study of England and Wales. Risk of all-cause mortality (2001-2010) was compared between residents aged 35 and 74 years of Scotland and England and Wales, and between Glasgow and Liverpool/Manchester, using Poisson regression. Models adjusted for age, gender, SES and religious affiliation. Similar country-based analyses were undertaken for suicide.

RESULTS

After adjustment for age, gender and SES, all-cause mortality was 9% higher in Scotland than in England and Wales, and 27% higher in Glasgow than in Liverpool or Manchester. Religious affiliation was notably lower across Scotland; but, its inclusion in the models did not attenuate the level of Scottish excess all-cause mortality, and only marginally lowered the differences in risk of suicide.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in religious affiliation do not explain the higher mortality rates in Scotland compared with the rest of the UK. However, it is possible that other aspects of religion such as religiosity or religious participation which were not assessed here may still be important.

Recent cohort effects in suicide in Scotland: a legacy of the 1980s?

BACKGROUND

Mortality rates are higher in Scotland relative to England and Wales, even after accounting for deprivation. This 'excess' mortality is partly due to higher mortality from alcohol-related and drug-related deaths, violence and suicide (particularly in young adults). This study investigated whether cohort effects from exposure to neoliberal politics from the 1980s might explain the recent trends in suicide in Scotland.

METHODS

We analysed suicide deaths data from 1974 to 2013 by sex and deprivation using shaded contour plots and intrinsic estimator regression modelling to identify and quantify relative age, period and cohort effects.

RESULTS

Suicide was most common in young adults (aged around 25-40 years) living in deprived areas, with a younger peak in men. The peak age for suicide fell around 1990, especially for men for whom it dropped quickly from around 50 to 30 years. There was evidence of an increased risk of suicide for the cohort born between 1960 and 1980, especially among men living in the most deprived areas (of around 30%). The cohort at highest risk occurred earlier in the most deprived areas, 1965-1969 compared with 1970-1974.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of suicide increased in Scotland for those born between 1960 and 1980, especially for men living in the most deprived areas, which resulted in a rise in age-standardised rates for suicide among young adults during the 1990s. This is consistent with the hypothesis that exposure to neoliberal politics created a delayed negative health impact.

Conceptualising the public health role of actors operating outside of formal health systems: The case of social enterprise

This paper focuses on the role of actors that operate outside formal health systems, but nevertheless have a vital, if often under-recognised, role in supporting public health. The specific example used is the 'social enterprise', an organisation that seeks, through trading, to maximise social returns, rather than the distribution of profits to shareholders or owners. In this paper we advance empirical and theoretical understanding of the causal pathways at work in social enterprises, by considering them as a particularly complex form of public health 'intervention'. Data were generated through qualitative, in depth, semi-structured interviews and a focus group discussion, with a purposive, maximum variation sample of social enterprise practitioners (n = 13) in an urban setting in the west of Scotland. A method of analysis inspired by critical realism - Causation Coding - enabled the identification of a range of explanatory mechanisms and potential pathways of causation between engagement in social enterprise-led activity and various outcomes, which have been grouped into physical health, mental health and social determinants. The findings then informed the construction of an empirically-informed conceptual model to act as a platform upon which to develop a future research agenda. The results of this work are considered to not only encourage a broader and more imaginative consideration of what actually constitutes a public health intervention, but also reinforces arguments that actors within the Third Sector have an important role to play in addressing contemporary and future public health challenges.

Increasing inequality in age of death at shared levels of life expectancy: A comparative study of Scotland and England and Wales

There is a strong negative correlation between increasing life expectancy and decreasing lifespan variation, a measure of inequality. Previous research suggests that countries achieving a high level of life expectancy later in time generally do so with lower lifespan variation than forerunner countries. This may be because they are able to capitalise on lessons already learnt. However, a few countries achieve a high level of life expectancy later in time with higher inequality. Scotland appears to be such a country and presents an interesting case study because it previously experienced lower inequality when reaching the same level of life expectancy as its closest comparator England and Wales. We calculated life expectancy and lifespan variation for Scotland and England and Wales for the years 1950 to 2012, comparing Scotland to England and Wales when it reached the same level of life expectancy later on in time, and assessed the difference in the level of lifespan variation. The lifespan variation difference between the two countries was then decomposed into age-specific components. Analysis was carried out for males and females separately. Since the 1950s Scotland has achieved the same level of life expectancy at least ten years later in time than England and Wales. Initially it did so with lower lifespan variation. Following the 1980s Scotland has been achieving the same level of life expectancy later in time than England and Wales and with higher inequality, particularly for males. Decomposition revealed that higher inequality is partly explained by lower older age mortality rates but primarily by higher premature adult age mortality rates when life expectancy is the same. Existing studies suggest that premature adult mortality rates are strongly associated with the social determinants of health and may be amenable to social and economic policies. So addressing these policy areas may have benefits for both inequality and population health in Scotland.

The assets-based approach: furthering a neoliberal agenda or rediscovering the old public health? A critical examination of practitioner discourses

The 'assets-based approach' to health and well-being has, on the one hand, been presented as a potentially empowering means to address the social determinants of health while, on the other, been criticised for obscuring structural drivers of inequality and encouraging individualisation and marketisation; in essence, for being a tool of neoliberalism. This study looks at how this apparent contestation plays out in practice through a critical realist-inspired examination of practitioner discourses, specifically of those working within communities to address social vulnerabilities that we know impact upon health. The study finds that practitioners interact with the assets-based policy discourse in interesting ways. Rather than unwitting tools of neoliberalism, they considered their work to be about mitigating the worst effects of poverty and social vulnerability in ways that enhance collectivism and solidarity, concepts that neoliberalism arguably seeks to disrupt. Furthermore, rather than a different, innovative, way of working, they consider the assets-based approach to simply be a re-labelling of what they have been doing anyway, for as long as they can remember. So, for practitioners, rather than a 'new' approach to public health, the assets-based public health movement seems to be a return to recognising and appreciating the role of community within public health policy and practice; ideals that predate neoliberalism by quite some considerable time.

SimAlba: A Spatial Microsimulation Approach to the Analysis of Health Inequalities

This paper presents applied geographical research based on a spatial microsimulation model, SimAlba, aimed at estimating geographically sensitive health variables in Scotland. SimAlba has been developed in order to answer a variety of "what-if" policy questions pertaining to health policy in Scotland. Using the SimAlba model, it is possible to simulate the distributions of previously unknown variables at the small area level such as smoking, alcohol consumption, mental well-being, and obesity. The SimAlba microdataset has been created by combining Scottish Health Survey and Census data using a deterministic reweighting spatial microsimulation algorithm developed for this purpose. The paper presents SimAlba outputs for Scotland's largest city, Glasgow, and examines the spatial distribution of the simulated variables for small geographical areas in Glasgow as well as the effects on individuals of different policy scenario outcomes. In simulating previously unknown spatial data, a wealth of new perspectives can be examined and explored. This paper explores a small set of those potential avenues of research and shows the power of spatial microsimulation modeling in an urban context.

Is there a link between childhood adversity, attachment style and Scotland's excess mortality? Evidence, challenges and potential research

Background

Scotland has a persistently high mortality rate that is not solely due to the effects of socio-economic deprivation. This “excess” mortality is observed across the entire country, but is greatest in and around the post-industrial conurbation of West Central Scotland. Despite systematic investigation, the causes of the excess mortality remain the subject of ongoing debate.

Discussion

Attachment processes are a fundamental part of human development, and have a profound influence on adult personality and behaviour, especially in response to stressors. Many studies have also shown that childhood adversity is correlated with adult morbidity and mortality.

The interplay between childhood adversity and attachment is complex and not fully elucidated, but will include socio-economic, intergenerational and psychological factors. Importantly, some adverse health outcomes for parents (such as problem substance use or suicide) will simultaneously act as risk factors for their children.

Data show that some forms of “household dysfunction” relating to childhood adversity are more prevalent in Scotland: such problems include parental problem substance use, rates of imprisonment, rates of suicide and rates of children being taken into care. However other measures of childhood or family wellbeing have not been found to be substantially different in Scotland compared to England.

Summary

We suggest in this paper that the role of childhood adversity and attachment experience merits further investigation as a plausible mechanism influencing health in Scotland. A model is proposed which sets out some of the interactions between the factors of interest, and we propose parameters for the types of study which would be required to evaluate the validity of the model.

Dying younger in Scotland: Trends in mortality and deprivation relative to England and Wales, 1981-2011

Given previous evidence that not all Scotland's higher mortality compared to England & Wales (E&W) can be explained by deprivation, the aim was to enhance understanding of this excess by analysing changes in deprivation and mortality in Scotland and E&W between 1981 and 2011. Mortality was compared by means of direct standardisation and log-linear Poisson regression models, adjusting for age, sex and deprivation. Different measures of deprivation were employed, calculated at different spatial scales. Results show that Scotland became less deprived compared to E&W between 1981 and 2011. However, the Scottish excess (the difference in mortality rates relative to E&W after adjustment for deprivation) increased from 4% higher (c.1981) to 10% higher in 2010-12. The latter figure equates to c. 5000 extra deaths per year. The increase was driven by higher mortality from cancer, suicide, alcohol related causes and drugs-related poisonings. The size and increase in Scottish excess mortality are major concerns. Investigations into its underlying causes continue, the findings of which will be relevant to other populations, given that similar excesses have been observed elsewhere in Britain.

Developing a new small-area measure of deprivation using 2001 and 2011 census data from Scotland

Material deprivation contributes to inequalities in health; areas of high deprivation have higher rates of ill-health. How deprivation is measured has a great impact on its explanatory power with respect to health. We compare previous deprivation measures used in Scotland and proposes a new deprivation measure using the 2001 and 2011 Scottish census data. We calculate the relative index of inequality (RII) for self-reported health and mortality. While across all age groups different deprivation measures provide similar results, the assessment of health inequalities among those aged 20–29 differs markedly according to the deprivation measure. In 2011 the RII for long-term health problem for men aged 20–24 was only 0.71 (95% CI 0.60–0.83) using the Carstairs score, but 1.10 (0.99–1.21) for the new score and 1.13 (1.03–1.24) for the income domain of Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD). The RII for mortality in that age group was 1.25 (0.89–1.58) for the Carstairs score, 1.69 (1.35–2.02) for the new measure and 1.76 (1.43–2.08) for SIMD. The results suggest that researchers and policy makers should consider the suitability of deprivation measures for different social groups.

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Three measures of deprivation are associated with health similarly across all ages.

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The Carstairs score predicts lower health inequalities for people aged 20–29.

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The different result for the youth is driven by car ownership and overcrowding.

The contribution of a history of heavy smoking to Scotland's mortality disadvantage

Scotland has a lower life expectancy than any country in Western Europe or North America, and this disadvantage is concentrated above age 50. According to the Human Mortality Database, life expectancy at age 50 has been lower in Scotland than in any other developed country since 1980. Relative to 15 developed countries that we have chosen for comparison, Scotland's life expectancy in 2009 at age 50 was lower by an average of 2.5 years for women and 1.6 years for men. We estimate that Scottish women lost 3.6 years of life expectancy at age 50 as a result of smoking, compared to 1.4 years for the comparison countries. The equivalent figures among men are 3.1 and 2.1 years. These differences are large enough for the history of heavy smoking in Scotland to account both for most of the shortfall in life expectancy for both sexes and for the country's unusually narrow sex differences in life expectancy.

Explaining trends in alcohol-related harms in Scotland, 1991-2011 (I): the role of incomes, effects of socio-economic and political adversity and demographic change

OBJECTIVE

This paper tests the extent to which differing trends in income, demographic change and the consequences of an earlier period of social, economic and political change might explain differences in the magnitude and trends in alcohol-related mortality between 1991 and 2011 in Scotland compared to England & Wales (E&W).

STUDY DESIGN

Comparative time trend analyses and arithmetic modelling.

METHODS

Three approaches were utilised to compare Scotland with E&W: 1. We modelled the impact of changes in income on alcohol-related deaths between 1991-2001 and 2001-2011 by applying plausible assumptions of the effect size through an arithmetic model. 2. We used contour plots, graphical exploration of age-period-cohort interactions and calculation of Intrinsic Estimator coefficients to investigate the effect of earlier exposure to social, economic and political adversity on alcohol-related mortality. 3. We recalculated the trends in alcohol-related deaths using the white population only to make a crude approximation of the maximal impact of changes in ethnic diversity.

RESULTS

Real incomes increased during the 1990s but declined from around 2004 in the poorest 30% of the population of Great Britain. The decline in incomes for the poorest decile, the proportion of the population in the most deprived decile, and the inequality in alcohol-related deaths, were all greater in Scotland than in E&W. The model predicted less of the observed rise in Scotland (18% of the rise in men and 29% of the rise in women) than that in E&W (where 60% and 68% of the rise in men and women respectively was explained). One-third of the decline observed in alcohol-related mortality in Scottish men between 2001 and 2011 was predicted by the model, and the model was broadly consistent with the observed trends in E&W and amongst women in Scotland. An age-period interaction in alcohol-related mortality was evident for men and women during the 1990s and 2000s who were aged 40-70 years and who experienced rapidly increasing alcohol-related mortality rates. Ethnicity is unlikely to be important in explaining the trends or differences between Scotland and E&W.

CONCLUSIONS

The decline in alcohol-related mortality in Scotland since the early 2000s and the differing trend to E&W were partly described by a model predicting the impact of declining incomes. Lagged effects from historical social, economic and political change remain plausible from the available data.

The importance of age, sex and place in understanding socioeconomic inequalities in allostatic load: Evidence from the Scottish Health Survey (2008-2011)

BACKGROUND

Given the broad spectrum of health and wellbeing outcomes that are patterned by socioeconomic position (SEP), it has been suggested that there may be common biological pathways linking SEP and health. Allostatic load is one such pathway, which aims to measure cumulative burden/dysregulation across multiple physiological systems. This study aimed to determine the contextual and demographic factors (age, sex and place) that may be important in better understanding the links between lower SEP and higher allostatic load.

METHODS

Data were from a nationally representative sample of adults (18+): the Scottish Health Survey (2008-2011). Higher SEP ('1') was defined as having 'Higher'-level, secondary school qualifications versus having lower level or no qualifications ('0'). For allostatic load, a range of 10 biomarkers across the cardiovascular, metabolic and immune systems were used. Respondents were scored "1" for each biomarker that fell into the highest quartile of risk. Linear regressions were run in STATA, including SEP, age (continuous and as a 7-category variable), sex (male/female), urbanity (a 5-category variable ranging from primary cities to remote rural areas) and geographical location (based on 10 area-level healthboards). Interactions between SEP and each predictor, as well as stratified analyses, were tested.

RESULTS

Lower SEP was associated with higher allostatic load even after adjusting for age, sex and place (b = -0.631, 95 % CI -0.795, -0.389, p < 0.001). There was no significant effect moderation between SEP and age, sex or place. Stratified analysis did show that the inequality identified in the baseline models widened with age, becoming significant at ages 35-44, before narrowing at older ages (75+). There was no difference by sex, but more mixed findings with regards place (urbanity or geographical location), with a mix of significant and non-significant results by SEP that did not appear to follow any pattern.

CONCLUSIONS

Inequalities in allostatic load by educational attainment, as a measure of SEP, are consistent with age, sex and place. However, these stratified analyses showed that these inequalities did widen with age, before narrowing in later life, matching the patterns seen with other objective and subjective health measures. However, effect moderation analysis did not support evidence of a statistically significant interaction between age and SEP. Context remains an important feature in understanding and potentially addressing inequalities, although may be less of an issue in terms of physiological burden.

The human environment and the vitamin D compromise: Scotland as a case study in human biocultural adaptation and disease susceptibility

Year-round human habitation of environments with highly seasonal regimes of ultraviolet B radiation (UVB) depended on adaptive complexes of biological and cultural traits to ensure adequacy of vitamin D. Perturbations of such adaptive complexes resulting from changes in the physical environment, human behavior and culture, or both have had unexpected and untoward consequences for health. Scotland is an excellent case study of the changing nature of human biocultural adaptation to low-UVB environments. Occupation of Scotland after the last Pleistocene glaciation event about 14,000 YBP was made possible by maximally depigmented skin, which facilitated cutaneous biosynthesis of vitamin D3, and by a diet that emphasized foods rich in vitamin D. Changes in human subsistence and diet began with the introduction of agriculture and grazing about 5,000 YBP and accelerated greatly in the last 200 years through industrialization and urbanization. The resulting changes in domiciles, patterns of daily activity and behavior, and diet have led to reduced exposure to UVB and reduced consumption of vitamin D-rich foods. This has perturbed the "vitamin D compromise," an adaptive complex established in Scotland during the Mesolithic and Neolithic. We describe the UVB environment of Scotland from remotely sensed data and combine these data with information from the archaeological record to describe the vitamin D compromise in Scotland. Changes in human exposure to UVB and vitamin D consumption, which occurred as the result of urbanization and the dietary shift away from the consumption of oily fish, are traced. Vitamin D deficiency contributes to increased disease prevalence in Scotland, including that of the autoimmune disease multiple sclerosis, a debilitating neurodegenerative disease caused by demyelination of the central nervous system. These conditions have created an "imperfect storm" of poor health that should command the attention of public health experts and policy makers.

How much of the difference in life expectancy between Scottish cities does deprivation explain?

BACKGROUND

Glasgow's low life expectancy and high levels of deprivation are well documented. Studies comparing Glasgow to similarly deprived cities in England suggest an excess of deaths in Glasgow that cannot be accounted for by deprivation. Within Scotland comparisons are more equivocal suggesting deprivation could explain Glasgow's excess mortality. Few studies have used life expectancy, an intuitive measure that quantifies the between-city difference in years. This study aimed to use the most up-to-date data to compare Glasgow to other Scottish cities and to (i) evaluate whether deprivation could account for lower life expectancy in Glasgow and (ii) explore whether the age distribution of mortality in Glasgow could explain its lower life expectancy.

METHODS

Sex specific life expectancy was calculated for 2007-2011 for the population in Glasgow and the combined population of Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh. Life expectancy was calculated for deciles of income deprivation, based on the national ranking of datazones, using the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Life expectancy in Glasgow overall, and by deprivation decile, was compared to that in Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh combined, and the life expectancy difference decomposed by age using Arriaga's discrete method.

RESULTS

Life expectancy for the whole Glasgow population was lower than the population of Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh combined. When life expectancy was compared by national income deprivation decile, Glasgow's life expectancy was not systematically lower, and deprivation accounted for over 90 % of the difference. This was reduced to 70 % of the difference when carrying out sensitivity analysis using city-specific income deprivation deciles. In both analyses life expectancy was not systematically lower in Glasgow when stratified by deprivation. Decomposing the differences in life expectancy also showed that the age distribution of mortality was not systematically different in Glasgow after accounting for deprivation.

CONCLUSIONS

Life expectancy is not systematically lower across the Glasgow population compared to Aberdeen, Dundee and Edinburgh combined, once deprivation is accounted for. This provides further evidence that tackling deprivation in Glasgow would probably reduce the health inequalities that exist between Scottish cities. The change in the amount of unexplained difference when carrying out sensitivity analysis demonstrates the difficulties in comparing socioeconomic deprivation between populations, even within the same country and when applying an established ecological measure. Although the majority of health inequality between Glasgow and other Scottish cities is explained by deprivation, the difference in the amount of unexplained inequality depending on the relative context of deprivation used demonstrates the challenges associated with attributing mortality inequalities to an independent 'place effect'.

Always looking on the bright side of life? Exploring optimism and health in three UK post-industrial urban settings

BACKGROUND

Many theories have been proposed to explain the high levels of 'excess' mortality (i.e. higher mortality over and above that explained by differences in socio-economic circumstances) shown in Scotland-and, especially, in its largest city, Glasgow-compared with elsewhere in the UK. One such proposal relates to differences in optimism, given previously reported evidence of the health benefits of an optimistic outlook.

METHODS

A representative survey of Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester was undertaken in 2011. Optimism was measured by the Life Orientation Test (Revised) (LOT-R), and compared between the cities by means of multiple linear regression models, adjusting for any differences in sample characteristics.

RESULTS

Unadjusted analyses showed LOT-R scores to be similar in Glasgow and Liverpool (mean score (SD): 14.7 (4.0) for both), but lower in Manchester (13.9 (3.8)). This was consistent in analyses by age, gender and social class. Multiple regression confirmed the city results: compared with Glasgow, optimism was either similar (Liverpool: adjusted difference in mean score: -0.16 (95% CI -0.45 to 0.13)) or lower (Manchester: -0.85 (-1.14 to -0.56)).

CONCLUSIONS

The reasons for high levels of Scottish 'excess' mortality remain unclear. However, differences in psychological outlook such as optimism appear to be an unlikely explanation.

Comparing levels of social capital in three northern post-industrial UK cities

OBJECTIVES

A high level of 'excess' mortality (i.e. that seemingly not explained by deprivation) has been shown for Scotland compared to England & Wales and, in particular, for its largest city, Glasgow, compared to the similarly deprived postindustrial English cities of Liverpool and Manchester. The excess has been observed across all social classes, but, for premature mortality, has been shown to be highest in comparison of those of lowest socio-economic status (SES). Many theories have been proposed to explain this phenomenon. One such suggestion relates to potential differences in social capital between the cities, given the previously evidenced links between social capital and mortality. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether any aspects of social capital differed between the cities and whether, therefore, this might be a plausible explanation for some of the excess mortality observed in Glasgow.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

METHODS

A representative survey of Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester was undertaken in 2011. Social capital was measured using an expanded version of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) core 'Social Capital Harmonised Question Set'. Differences between the cities in five sets of social capital topics (views about the local area, civic participation, social networks and support, social participation, and reciprocity and trust) were explored by means of a series of multivariate regression models, while controlling for differences in the characteristics (age, gender, SES, ethnicity etc.) of the samples.

RESULTS

Some, but not all, aspects of social capital were lower among the Glasgow sample compared to those in Liverpool and Manchester. A number of these differences were greatest among those of higher, rather than lower, SES. Levels of social participation, trust and (some measures of) reciprocity were lower in Glasgow, particularly in comparison with Liverpool. However, assessment of any potential impact of these differences is limited by the cross-sectional nature of the data.

CONCLUSIONS

The analyses suggest it is at least possible that differences in some aspects of social capital could play some part in explaining Glasgow's excess mortality, especially among particular sections of its population (e.g. those of higher SES). However, in the absence of more detailed longitudinal data, this remains speculative.

Elimination of 'the Glasgow effect' in levels of dental caries in Scotland's five-year-old children: 10 cross-sectional surveys (1994-2012)

BACKGROUND

Socioeconomic inequalities in health within Glasgow, Scotland, are among the widest in the world. This is largely attributed to socio-economic conditions. The 'Glasgow Effect' labels the finding that the high prevalence of some diseases cannot be fully explained by a conventional area-based socio-economic metric. This study aimed to investigate whether differences in dental caries between Glasgow's resident children and those in the Rest of Scotland could be explained by this metric and whether differences were of fixed magnitude, over time.

METHODS

Scotland's National Dental Inspection Programme (NDIP) cross-sectional data for five-year-old children in years: 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012 (n = 92,564) were utilised. Endpoints were calculated from the mean decayed, missing and filled teeth score (d3mft) and percentage with obvious decay experience. Socioeconomic status was measured by DepCat, a Scottish area-based index. The Glasgow Effect was estimated by the odds-ratio (OR) of decay for Glasgow versus the Rest of Scotland adjusted by age, gender and DepCat. Inequalities were also assessed by the Significant Caries Index (SIC), SIC 10, and Scottish Caries Inequality Metric (SCIM 10).

RESULTS

Decay levels for deprived Glasgow children have reduced to be similar to those in the Rest of Scotland. In 1993, OR for d3mft > 0 for those living in the Glasgow area was 1.34(1.10, 1.64), p = 0.005. This reduced below unity in 2012, OR = 0.85(0.77, 0.93), p < 0.001. There were downward trends (p < 0.001) in absolute inequality measured by SIC and SIC 10 in each of the geographic areas. The SCIM 10 demonstrated further reductions in inequality across the population. The downward trends for all the inequality measures were larger for Glasgow than the Rest of Scotland.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the interval, Glasgow has eliminated the earlier extra health inequalities. When comparing 'like for like' by socioeconomic status there is now no higher level of dental caries in the Greater Glasgow area.

Comparing Antonovsky's sense of coherence scale across three UK post-industrial cities

OBJECTIVES

High levels of 'excess' mortality (ie, that seemingly not explained by deprivation) have been shown for Scotland compared to England and Wales and, especially, for its largest city, Glasgow, compared to the similarly deprived English cities of Liverpool and Manchester. It has been suggested that this excess may be related to differences in 'Sense of Coherence' (SoC) between the populations. The aim of this study was to ascertain whether levels of SoC differed between these cities and whether, therefore, this could be a plausible explanation for the 'excess'.

SETTING

Three post-industrial UK cities: Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester.

PARTICIPANTS

A representative sample of more than 3700 adults (over 1200 in each city).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

SoC was measured using Antonovsky's 13-item scale (SOC-13). Multivariate linear regression was used to compare SoC between the cities while controlling for characteristics (age, gender, SES etc) of the samples. Additional modelling explored whether differences in SoC moderated city differences in levels of self-assessed health (SAH).

RESULTS

SoC was higher, not lower, among the Glasgow sample. Fully adjusted mean SoC scores for residents of Liverpool and Manchester were, respectively, 5.1 (-5.1 (95% CI -6.0 to -4.1)) and 8.1 (-8.1 (-9.1 to -7.2)) lower than those in Glasgow. The additional modelling confirmed the relationship between SoC and SAH: a 1 unit increase in SoC predicted approximately 3% lower likelihood of reporting bad/very bad health (OR=0.97 (95% CI 0.96 to 0.98)): given the slightly worse SAH in Glasgow, this resulted in slightly lower odds of reporting bad/very bad health for the Liverpool and Manchester samples compared to Glasgow.

CONCLUSIONS

The reasons for the high levels of 'excess' mortality seen in Scotland and particularly Glasgow remain unclear. However, on the basis of these analyses, it appears unlikely that a low SoC provides any explanation.

Mortality and morbidity 15 years after hospital admission with mild head injury: a prospective case-controlled population study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate mortality rate in a population of adults admitted to hospital with mild head injury (MHI) 15 years later.

DESIGN

A prospective case control, record linkage study.

PARTICIPANTS

2428 adults with MHI and an equal number of community controls (CC) were case-matched for age, gender and social deprivation. A further control group admitted with a non-head injury was in addition matched for duration of hospital admission. Controls with a history of head injury prior to study entry were excluded.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Death or survival 15 years poststudy entry.

RESULTS

Mortality per 1000 per year after MHI (24.49; 95% CI 23.21 to 25.79) was higher than in CC (13.34; 95% CI 12.29 to 14.44; p<0.0001) or 'other injury' controls (OIC) (19.63; 95% CI 18.43 to 20.87; p<0.0001). Age at injury was important: younger adults (15-54 years) with MHI had a 4.2-fold greater risk of death than CC; in adults aged over 54, the risk was 1.4 times higher. Gender and social deprivation showed a similar association with death in the MHI and control groups. Repeated head injury was a risk factor for death in the MHI group. The frequency of hospital admission with systemic disease preinjury and postinjury was higher in both injury groups than in CC and higher in MHI than OIC. Prospective data in the MHI group suggest an association between preinjury lifestyle and mortality. Causes of death after MHI were similar to those of the control groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Adults hospitalised with MHI had greater risk of death in the following 15 years than matched controls. The extent to which lifestyle and potential chronic changes in neuropathology explain these findings is unclear. Lifestyle factors do contribute to risk of death after MHI and this finding has implications for lifestyle management interventions.

Explaining the excess mortality in Scotland compared with England: pooling of 18 cohort studies

Background

Mortality in Scotland is higher than in the rest of west and central Europe and is improving more slowly. Relative to England and Wales, the excess is only partially explained by area deprivation. We tested the extent to which sociodemographic, behavioural, anthropometric and biological factors explain the higher mortality in Scotland compared with England.

Methods

Pooled data from 18 nationally representative cohort studies comprising the Health Surveys for England (HSE) and the Scottish Health Survey (SHS). Cox regression analysis was used to quantify the excess mortality risk in Scotland relative to England with adjustment for baseline characteristics.

Results

A total of 193 873 participants with a mean of 9.6 years follow-up gave rise to 21 345 deaths. The age-adjusted and sex-adjusted all-cause mortality HR for Scottish respondents compared with English respondents was 1.40 (95% CI 1.34 to 1.47), which attenuated to 1.29 (95% CI 1.23 to 1.36) with the addition of the baseline socioeconomic and behavioural characteristics. Cause-specific mortality HRs attenuated only marginally to 1.43 (95% 1.28 to 1.60) for ischaemic heart disease, 1.37 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.63) for stroke, 1.41 (95% CI 1.30 to 1.53) for all cancers, 3.43 (95% CI 1.85 to 6.36) for illicit drug-related poisoning and 4.64 (95% CI 3.55 to 6.05) for alcohol-related mortality. The excess was greatest among young adults (16–44 years) and was observed across all occupational social classes with the greatest excess in the unskilled group.

Conclusions

Only a quarter of the excess mortality among Scottish respondents could be explained by the available baseline risk factors. Greater understanding is required on the lived experience of poverty, the role of social support, and the historical, environmental, cultural and political influences on health in Scotland.

"The Glasgow effect?"- the result of the geographical patterning of deprived areas?

The aim of this research was to examine whether the excess mortality found in Glasgow, compared to other cities in the UK ("Glasgow effect"), could be attributed to patterns of the distribution of deprived neighbourhoods within the cities. Data on mortality and deprivation at a neighbourhood scale were used to examine the impact of the patterning of neighbourhood deprivation on mortality in Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester. Analysis using a combination of GIS and statistical approaches, including a Moran׳s I test and Conditional Auto Regressive models to capture residual spatial autocorrelation, was carried out. The pattern of deprivation was found to be more dispersed in Glasgow compared to the other cities. The impact of surrounding deprivation at two different scales shows strong impact on neighbourhood health outcomes in Glasgow and Liverpool but not in Manchester, suggesting that patterning is not a major contribution to the excess mortality in Glasgow.

The English North-South divide: risk factors for cardiovascular disease accounting for cross-sectional socio-economic position

AIMS

Given a North-South divide in mortality in England, we aimed to assess the extent of a North-South divide in risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD), controlling for markers of socio-economic position (SEP).

METHODS

We undertook cross-sectional analyses using respondents from the 2006 Health Survey for England. We assessed mean systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, body mass index (BMI) and smoking prevalence in the two regions. We built nested regression models adding demographic factors, SEP indicators, behavioural risk factors, vascular disease status and CVD preventive medications stepwise into each model. We examined interactions between region, age and gender.

RESULTS

Controlling for demographic variables, we found a northern excess in systolic blood pressure (+1.95mmHg (SE = 0.40)), BMI (0.40kgm(-2) (SE = 0.12)) and smoking prevalence (5.6% (SE = 1.1)). The difference in smoking prevalence was entirely abolished by markers of SEP. Systolic blood pressure and BMI differences were attenuated by SEP, behavioural and disease indicators, but remained (+1.63mmHg (SE = 0.41) and 0.25kgm(-2) (SE = 0.12), respectively). However, they were lost after adjustment for preventive medication. The North-South divide in systolic blood pressure was attributed to differences in men and younger-to-middle-aged groups. Northern respondents were more physically active, especially younger men.

CONCLUSIONS

English North-South differences in smoking can be explained through adverse, cross-sectional SEP. Northern excesses in blood pressure and BMI may be associated with differential clinical management. Risk factor differences may, in part, explain a previously found North-South divide in mortality. Further exploration of geographic inequalities, concentrating on the impact of healthcare, may be warranted.

Trends in termination of pregnancy in Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester

BACKGROUND

Research published in 2010 showed that premature mortality in Glasgow over the period 2003-2007 was 30% higher than that in Liverpool and Manchester, despite the three cities sharing almost identical levels and patterns of socio-economic deprivation. A number of theories have been proposed to explain this discrepancy, including [in the light of US research linking variations in the termination of pregnancy (ToP) rate to differences in social and health outcomes] the suggestion that variations in current levels of mortality across the cities could be influenced by differences in earlier ToP rates.

OBJECTIVES

To undertake further analyses of mortality data for Glasgow, Liverpool and Manchester to assess the likelihood of differences in ToP rates influencing rates of excess mortality in Glasgow; to analyse long-term trends in numbers and ToP rates in the three cities (and, for comparison, between Scotland and England); and to investigate potential explanations for any differences in ToP rates.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Mortality analyses were based on the same age-, sex- and deprivation-standardized data that were used in the previous research on the three cities. ToP data (and population denominator data) covering the period 1980-2009 were obtained from Scottish and English national organizations. Historical national ToP data for the years 1969-1979 were obtained from an additional published source. Rates were calculated per female aged 15-44 years and, for analyses of ToP among teenagers, per female aged 15-19 years. Potential explanations for differences in rates were investigated by means of literature searches and discussions with key informants.

RESULTS

The ToP rate in Glasgow was lower than the ToP rates in Liverpool and Manchester over the total period analysed (as was the case for Scotland compared with England and Wales), although the gap has narrowed considerably, especially among females aged <20 years. This is due to a greater increase in the ToP rate in Glasgow (and Scotland), attributed, in part, to better access to ToP services. The differences in ToP rates do not appear to have been influenced by women travelling to England from Ireland for access to ToP facilities, nor by Glaswegian women travelling outside Scotland for the same reason. However, 90% of 'excess' deaths that took place in Glasgow compared with Liverpool and Manchester between 2003 and 2007 related to individuals born prior to the 1967 Abortion Act; these excess deaths, therefore, are not influenced by earlier variations in ToP rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in ToP rates between the cities are unlikely to impact on variations in later mortality rates. Thus, while the topic of ToP is important, investigation into the reasons behind Glasgow's excess mortality levels should focus on other hypotheses.

Nutrition and ageing: knowledge, gaps and research priorities

Over the past two centuries human life expectancy has increased by nearly 50 years. Genetic factors account for about one-third of the variation in life expectancy so that most of the inter-individual variation in lifespan is explained by stochastic and environmental factors, including diet. In some model organisms, dietary (energy) restriction is a potent, and highly reproducible, means of increasing lifespan and of reducing the risk of age-related dysfunction although whether this strategy is effective in human subjects is unknown. This is ample evidence that the ageing process is plastic and research demonstrates that ageing is driven by the accumulation of molecular damage, which causes the changes in cell and tissue function that characterise the ageing phenotype. This cellular, tissue and organ damage results in the development of age-related frailty, disabilities and diseases. There are compelling observational data showing links between eating patterns, e.g. the Mediterranean dietary pattern, and ageing. In contrast, there is little empirical evidence that dietary changes can prolong healthy lifespan and there is even less information about the intervention modalities that can produce such sustainable dietary behaviour changes. In conclusion, current research needs include (1) a better understanding of the causal biological pathways linking diet with the ageing trajectory, (2) the development of lifestyle-based interventions, including dietary changes, which are effective in preventing age-related disease and disability and (3) the development of robust markers of healthy ageing, which can be used as surrogate outcome measures in the development and testing of dietary interventions designed to enhance health and well-being long into old age.

Social enterprise: new pathways to health and well-being?

In this article we attempt to make sense of recent policy directions and controversies relating to the 'social enterprise' and 'health' interface. In doing so, we outline the unrecognised potential of social enterprise for generating health and well-being improvement, and the subsequent challenges for government, the sector itself, and for the research community. Although we focus primarily upon the U.K. policy landscape, the key message--that social enterprise could represent an innovative and sustainable public health intervention--is a useful contribution to the ongoing international debate on how best to address the challenge of persistent and widening health inequalities.