Moving north in China: The habitat of Pedicularis kansuensis in the context of climate change

Assessment of Chinese suitable habitats of Amomum tsao-ko in different climatic conditions

Introduction

Amomum tsao-ko Crevost et Lemaire is not only a traditional Chinese medicine but also a significant cash crop in the border regions of southwest China. However, challenges pertaining to its growing environment, yield, and overall quality have considerably impeded its development. This paper investigates the responses of A. tsao-ko to climatic challenges, aiming to contribute to the long-term stability and sustainability of the industry.

Methods

The MaxEnt model, combined with ArcGIS software, was utilized to analyze key environmental factors and predict potential suitable habitats for A. tsao-ko under various climatic conditions. Furthermore, the volatile oils in A. tsao-ko samples from high-suitable habitats were analyzed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS).

Results

The results indicated that Bio04 (Temperature seasonality (standard deviation * 100)), Bio17 (Driest quarterly precipitation), and Bio12 (Precipitation of the wettest month) were the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of A. tsao-ko. Under future climatic scenarios, it is expected to gradually adapt to new environmental conditions, with suitable habitats progressively shifting northward. The volatile oil extraction and GC-MS analysis revealed that the sample from Xishuangbanna (S8) exhibited not only the highest extraction rate (32.6 μL/g) but also the highest relative content of terpenes, particularly eucalyptol (29.26%).

Discussion

S8 is regarded as a source of high-quality production that fulfills the criteria outlined in the Chinese Pharmacopoeia. The results show that Xishuangbanna can be used as a high-quality production area for A. tsao-ko planting, and large-scale artificial planting can be carried out to realize the sustainable development of A. tsao-ko industry and ecology.

Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activity on the Habitat Distribution of Metasequoia glyptostroboides

Extensive evidence supports that global climate change influences shifts in species habitats due to alterations in hydrothermal conditions; however, neglecting dispersal capacities and limits significantly heightens uncertainties regarding spatial distribution patterns among different organisms. In this study, we compared the spatial distribution of Metasequoia glyptostroboides Hu & W.C. Cheng (M. glyptostroboides) in the current Anthropocene context to that in a climate-only context, providing new insights into the effects of climate change, dispersal potential, and dispersal barriers on the habitat changes for M. glyptostroboides. By utilizing optimized MaxEnt and MigClim models, we predicted Mid-Holocene (MH) conditions and potential colonizable habitats under three emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) for both the medium and long term. We also assessed habitat distribution and variation differences in future warm-wet conditions and the Anthropocene context. The results revealed that (1) The Precipitation of driest month (BIO14), Mean diurnal range (Bio2) and human footprint (HFP) are the primary factors influencing the expansion or contraction of the habitats of M. glyptostroboides. Human footprint, farmland, roads, and construction land are the main contributors to habitat loss and fragmentation. (2) Habitats of M. glyptostroboides are expected to experience significant loss in the future. There is potential for recovery in South China under the SSP126 emission scenario, but human activities may hinder this recovery. Moderate human intervention is necessary in regions, such as Hubei, Hunan, Anhui, and Sichuan basins. (3) Due to human influence, the habitat and high-suitability areas for M. glyptostroboides are projected to migrate northeastward. Under the SSP126 scenario, a trend of reverse migration may be observed in the long term. This study minimizes the uncertainty in predicting species distribution under climate change while providing theoretical support for future habitat conservation of M. glyptostroboides.

Hydrophobic Pedicularis Kansuensis/graphene aerogel with solar thermal effect enables efficient removal of sulfadiazine and oil from water

The contamination of water resources by organic pollutants is a significant factor contributing to the scarcity of water resources. Furthermore, the various forms and quantities of organic pollutants present a considerable challenge to their management and remediation. Antibiotics and oil are two typical organic pollutants in water, which have a serious impact on the environment and biological health. It is thus imperative to eradicate these two principal pollutants from the aquatic environment. The remediation of polluted water by adsorption represents an effective approach, with the adsorbent's performance determining the process's efficacy. In this study, Pedicularis Kansuensis/graphene aerogel (PKGA) was prepared, and its adsorption performance of sulfadiazine (SDZ) with low concentration and oil with high concentration was investigated. The results demonstrated that PKGA has good adsorption and removal ability for both SDZ and oil in water. The porous structure, hydrophobicity, and oleophilicity of PKGA facilitate the effective elimination of organic contaminants from aqueous media. The adsorption of SDZ by PKGA is an endothermic spontaneous process. The equilibrium adsorption of SDZ by PKGA increased with increasing temperature and the theoretical maximum equilibrium adsorption at 35 °C was 70.67 mg/g. Additionally, the adsorption capacity of PKGA for oil ranged from 51.27 to 120.71 g/g, indicating its potential for oil-water separation. Notably, PKGA, a representative carbon-based material, exhibits a photothermal effect that enhances its adsorption capabilities for removing SDZ and viscous oil from water. This study offers a novel perspective on organic pollutant adsorption and removal in water.

Predicting the potential distribution of the invasive species, Ophelimus maskelli (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), and its natural enemy Closterocerus chamaeleon (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), under current and future climate conditions

Invasive species pose a threat to ecosystems and humans worldwide, which is exacerbated by climate change, causing the expansion of species distributions. Ophelimus maskelli (Ashmead) (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) causes leaf drying and shedding in eucalyptus trees, forming blister-like galls that negatively impact the growth of the trees. Closterocerus chamaeleon (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) is a recognized parasitoid of O. maskelli. This study used the MaxEnt and CLIMEX models to predict the potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios for O. maskelli and its natural enemy, C. chamaeleon. The MaxEnt model result indicated that isothermality was the most critical factor predicting the distribution of O. maskelli, while the mean temperature of the driest quarter was the most critical factor predicting the distribution of C. chamaeleon. Under current climate conditions, the CLIMEX model predicted a wider potential distribution for O. maskelli and a smaller distribution for C. chamaeleon than the MaxEnt model. MaxEnt and CLIMEX prediction results indicated that South America and Africa were suitable for O. maskelli and C. chamaeleon. The MaxEnt model indicated that under SSP245 climate conditions, the potentially suitable regions for these species expanded, while under the SSP126 climate scenario, the region contracted significantly. The CLIMEX model indicated that under the A1B and A2 climate scenarios, the marginally suitable areas increased, while the moderately and highly suitable areas decreased. This study provides a theoretical basis for creating early monitoring, quarantine, and control methods for invasive pests.

Impacts of climate change on the suitable habitat of Angelica sinensis and analysis of its drivers in China

Climate change is shifting optimal habitats for medicinal plants, potentially compromising the efficacy and therapeutic value of herbal remedies. Global warming and increased extreme weather events threaten the sustainability and pharmaceutical integrity of Angelica sinensis (Oliv.) Diels (A. sinensis). Despite its importance in traditional herbal medicine, there is limited research on adaptation of A. sinensis to climate challenges. This study systematically collected occurrence data of A. sinensis through field expeditions and online databases, using the Maxent ecological niche modeling tool and ArcGIS software to forecast suitable habitats. A total of 402 species occurrence points and 21 environmental variables were selected for modeling, resulting in 1,160 distribution models, of which only one met the stringent 5% odds ratio (OR) standard. The optimal model exhibited a pROC value of 0, an OR of 0.0196, and an AICc score of 9,287.133. The model, run ten times for robustness, showed an average AUC of 0.980, indicating high accuracy and reliability. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitats for A. sinensis cover approximately 13% of mainland China, primarily in Gansu (73.77%), Qinghai (14.73%), and Sichuan (11.18%) provinces. Environmental factors such as altitude, humidity, and temperature significantly influence the geographical distribution of A. sinensis. The future climate scenario predictions suggest that suitable habitats will generally shift towards higher latitudes, with areas of moderate to high suitability primarily distributed across the provinces of Gansu and Qinghai. The interactions between environmental factors, characterized by mutual and nonlinear enhancement, further influence the spatial differentiation of suitability zones. Overlay analysis with 2020 land cover data indicated that 861,437 km² of arable and forest land are suitable for A. sinensis cultivation. Future predictions under four SSP scenarios show varying changes in suitable habitat areas, with the most significant expansion under SSP370 between 2080 and 2100, covering 14.54% of mainland China. These findings provide critical insights for optimizing A. sinensis cultivation regions and quality assessments in response to climate change.

Using ecological niches to determine potential habitat suitability for Psacothea hilaris (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) and its natural enemies in China under future climates

Climate change impacts the distribution of pests and its natural enemies, prompting this study to investigate the dynamics and shifts in distribution under current and future climate conditions. The spatial pattern of Psacothea hilaris (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in China was analyzed, and the MaxEnt model was optimized to predict the potential geographic distribution of P. hilaris and its two natural enemies (Dastarcus helophoroides (Fairmaire) (Coleoptera: Bothrideridae) and Dendrocopos major (Linnaeus) (Piciformes: Picidae)) in China, to further analyze the key environmental factors affecting the survival of P. hilaris and its natural enemies, and to determine the potential of using D. helophoroides and D. major as natural enemies to control P. hilaris. The results showed that the suitable ranges of P. hilaris and natural enemies are expanding under the influence of climate change, and both have migrated to higher latitudes. The potential ranges of D. helophoroides, D. major, and P. hilaris are highly similar. It is noteworthy that the potential range of D. helophoroides completely covers the potential range of P. hilaris. This indicates that D. helophoroides and D. major can be employed as biological control agents to manage P. hilaris populations. This study provides a theoretical framework and empirical evidence for the development of early warning and green control strategies for P. hilaris.

Simulation of Pseudostellaria heterophylla distribution in China: assessing habitat suitability and bioactive component abundance under future climate change scenariosplant components

Background

Pseudostellaria heterophylla is used in traditional Chinese medicine, so ensuring an adequate supply of plant material with high levels of bioactive components is important.

Methods

Using an optimized maximum entropy niche model and assays of bioactive components from cultivation samples, this study started from the plant's natural distribution area and estimated correlations of ecological factors with not only abundance of the plant but also abundance of polysaccharides and heterophyllin B. These correlations were combined with the spatial analysis function in ArcGIS to generate maps of the suitability of different habitats in China for cultivating P. heterophylla under current climate conditions and different models of climate change.

Results

The following ecological factors emerged as particularly important for habitat suitability: precipitation of driest month and driest quarter, annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, temperature seasonality, and mean temperature of coldest quarter, contributing to a cumulative total of 87%. Under current climate conditions, optimum habitats of P. heterophylla were mainly distributed in the southwestern region (Guizhou) and eastern regions (Anhui, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangsu) of China, and only 0.197×106 km2 of these areas were optimum habitat. In future climate change scenarios, the optimal habitat area of P. heterophylla exhibited an increase across different time periods under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario. By the 2090s, distribution area of high heterophyllin B content under SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios will increase significantly, distribution area of high polysaccharide content had little change under all three climate scenarios (SSP 1-2.6, 2-4.5, 5-8.5). The center of mass of suitable habitat migrates southwestward under scenario SSP 1-2.6 and SSP 2-4.5, while it migrates northward under scenario SSP 5-8.5. Under the three climate scenarios, the center of mass of suitable habitat migrated consistently with that of high polysaccharide content but differed from that of high heterophyllin B content.

Conclusion

These findings provide a crucial foundation for cultivating P. heterophylla with superior medicinal properties, developing adaptive management strategies to enhance conservation efforts, and ensuring sustainable utilization in the face of global climate change.

MaxEnt and Marxan modeling to predict the potential habitat and priority planting areas of Coffea arabica in Yunnan, China under climate change scenario

Introduction

Coffea arabica (Arabica coffee) is an important cash crop in Yunnan, China. Ongoing climate change has made coffee production more difficult to sustain, posing challenges for the region's coffee industry. Predictions of the distribution of potentially suitable habitats for Arabica coffee in Yunnan could provide a theoretical basis for the cultivation and rational management of this species.

Methods

In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution of suitable habitat for Arabica coffee in Yunnan under current and future (2021-2100) climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) using 56 distributional records and 17 environmental variables and to analyze the important environmental factors. Marxan model was used to plan the priority planting areas for this species at last.

Results

The predicted suitable and sub-suitable areas were about 4.21×104 km2 and 13.87×104 km2, respectively, accounting for 47.15% of the total area of the province. The suitable areas were mainly concentrated in western and southern Yunnan. The minimum temperature of the coldest month, altitude, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, slope, and aluminum saturation were the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of Arabica coffee in Yunnan Province. Changes in habitat suitability for Arabica coffee were most significant and contracted under the SSP3-7.0 climate scenario, while expansion was highest under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario. Priority areas for Arabica coffee cultivation in Yunnan Province under the 30% and 50% targets were Pu'er, Xishuangbanna, Honghe, Dehong, and Kunming.

Discussion

Climate, soil, and topography combine to influence the potential geographic distribution of Arabica coffee. Future changes in suitable habitat areas under different climate scenarios should lead to the delineation of coffee-growing areas based on appropriate environmental conditions and active policy measures to address climate change.

Spatiotemporal distribution prediction of the relict and endangered plant Tetraena mongolica in inner Mongolia, China under climate change

Climate change significantly affects the distribution of plant species, particularly that of relict plants. Tetraena mongolica Maxim. is a first-class endangered relict plant in China, primarily found in Inner Mongolia. This study explored the impact of multiple factors on its potential distribution under climate change. Considering a comprehensive set of 42 potential influencing variables, including climate, soil, net primary productivity (NPP), human activities, and topography, 29 variables were selected. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to construct separate climate and soil niche models, and an "overlay function" was employed to construct a dual-suitability model. By establishing five different scenarios, we analyzed the effects of climate, human activities, and NPP on T. mongolica distribution. The results showed that climate is the most significant factor, soil constraints limit its distribution, and human activities reduce its suitable habitats. Although the direct influence of NPP is limited, it may indirectly affect T. mongolica distribution by improving habitat conditions. Future climate change is expected to sharply reduce suitable habitat areas, with the center of distribution migrating eastward. The study's findings imply that climate change, human activities, and soil conditions significantly impact the distribution and survival of the endangered plant T. mongolica, necessitating comprehensive conservation measures to mitigate habitat loss and ensure its preservation.

Vulnerability and driving mechanism of four typical grasslands in China under the coupled impacts of climate change and human activities

Understanding of how different grasslands types respond to climate change and human activities across different spatial and temporal dimensions is crucial for devising effective strategies to prevent grasslands degradation. In this study, we developed a novel vulnerability assessment model for grasslands that intricately evaluates the combined impact of climate change and human activities. We then applied this model to analyze the vulnerability and driving mechanism of four representative Chinese grasslands to climate change and human activities. Our findings indicate that the vulnerability of the four grasslands would show a pattern of higher in the west and lower in the east under the influence of climate change alone. However, when human activities are factored in, the vulnerability across the four grasslands tends to homogenize, with human activities notably reducing the vulnerability of alpine grasslands in the west and, conversely, increasing the vulnerability of grasslands in the east. Furthermore, our study reveals distinct major environmental drivers of grasslands vulnerability across different regions. The two western alpine grasslands exhibit higher vulnerability to annual mean temperature and isothermality compared to the eastern temperate grasslands, while their vulnerability to precipitation of the coldest quarter is lower than that of the eastern temperate grasslands. These findings are helpful for understanding the multifaceted causes and mechanisms of grasslands degradation, providing a scientific foundation for the sustainable management and conservation of grassland resources.

Spatial Distribution Pattern of Aromia bungii Within China and Its Potential Distribution Under Climate Change and Human Activity

Aromia bungii is a pest that interferes with the health of forests and hinders the development of the fruit tree industry, and its spread is influenced by changes in abiotic factors and human activities. Therefore, exploring their spatial distribution patterns and potential distribution areas under such conditions is crucial for maintaining forest ecosystem security. This study analyzed the spatial differentiation characteristics of the geographic distribution pattern of A. bungii in China using Moran's I and the Getis-Ord General G index. Hot spot distribution areas were identified using Getis-Ord Gi*. An optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution areas of A. bungii within China under four shared economic pathways by combining multivariate environmental data: (1) prediction of natural environmental variables predicted under current climate models; (2) prediction of natural environmental variables + human activities under current climate models; and (3) prediction of natural environmental variables under the future climate models (2050s and 2070s). Meanwhile, MigClim was used to simulate the unoccupied suitable area in the presence of obstacles under future climate change. The results showed that human activities, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and precipitation of the wettest month had positive effects on the distribution of A. bungii. However, in the current period, human activities drastically reduced the survival area of A. bungii, and its suitable distribution area was mainly concentrated in the eastern and central regions of China. Under the influence of climate change in the future, the habitat of A. bungii will gradually increase. Additionally, the MigClim model indicates that the area unoccupied by A. bungii has been on a continuous increasing trend. This study provides a positive reference for the prevention and control of A. bungii and the maintenance of forest health and ecosystem security, and provides important theoretical guidance for researchers, policymakers, and governments.

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution of Endangered and Endemic Changnienia amoena (Orchidaceae) Using Ensemble Modeling and Gap Analysis in China

Climate change has significant impacts on the distribution of orchids. The endemic and endangered orchids are more susceptible to climate change than widely distributed orchids. To date, little is known concerning the response of endangered Changnienia amoena, endemic to China, to different climate scenarios. Here, we build an ensemble model comprising random forest model, maximum entropy model, and gradient boosting model in Biomod2 package to project its potential distribution in China, evaluate its current protective effectiveness, and identify its conservation gaps in China by determining the C. amoena population range within the natural protected areas. The outcomes showed that the four key environmental factors influencing its distribution were mean diurnal temperature range, minimum temperature of the coldest month, temperature seasonality, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. This orchid was currently distributed mainly in southern Anhui, central and western Hubei, western Hunan, southern Shaanxi, and eastern Sichuan province. The total suitable area of C. amoena was 58.33 × 104 km2, only accounting for 6.08% of China's total territory, which is larger than known. However, only 4.48% of the suitable area is located within national nature reserves and 3.33% within provincial nature reserves, respectively. During the last inter glacial and mid-holocene, its suitable areas were larger than the current. Under six future climate scenarios, its suitable areas may decrease averagely by 2.26% relative to the current, with severe habitat fragmentation. Collectively, the centroid of C. amoena is expected to shift towards the southeast in the future. Therefore, our findings demonstrate that climate change has an adverse effect on its potential distribution. We recommend expanding protected areas or establishing new conservation sites for C. amoena in China. Furthermore, our study can help to inform the development of conservation management strategies for other endangered Chinese endemic orchids under climate change.

Modeling future changes in potential habitats of five alpine vegetation types on the Tibetan Plateau by incorporating snow depth and snow phenology

Although snow cover is a major factor affecting vegetation in alpine regions, it is rarely introduced into ecological niche models in alpine regions. Snow phenology over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was estimated using a daily passive microwave snow depth dataset, and future datasets of snow depth and snow phenology were projected based on their sensitivity to temperature and precipitation. Furthermore, the potential habitats of five alpine vegetation types on the TP were predicted under two future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) by using a model with incorporated snow variables, and the driving factors of habitat change were analyzed. The results showed that the inclusion of snow variables improved the prediction accuracy of MaxEnt model, particularly in alpine meadow habitats. By the end of the 21st century, the potential habitats of steppes, meadows, shrubs, deserts, and coniferous forests on the TP will migrate to higher latitudes and altitudes, in which the potential habitats of alpine desert will recede (replaced by alpine steppe), and the potential habitats of other four vegetation types will expand. The random forest importance analysis showed that the recession of potential habitat was mainly driven by the increase in average annual temperature, and the expansion of potential habitat was mainly driven by the increase in precipitation. With the gradual increase in temperature and precipitation in the future, the snow depth and snow cover duration days will decrease, which may further lead to the transition of vegetation types from cold-adapted to warm-adapted on the TP. Our study highlights both that the prediction accuracy of alpine vegetation was improved by incorporating snow variables into the species distribution model, and that a changing climate will likely have a powerful influence on the distribution of alpine vegetation across the TP.

Impacts of climate change and human activity on the potential distribution of Aconitum leucostomum in China

Aconitum leucostomum is a poisonous grass that disturbs grassland populations and livestock development, and its spread is influenced by climate change and human activities. Therefore, exploring its potential distribution area under such conditions is crucial to maintain grassland ecological security and livestock development. The present study initially selected 39 variables that may influence the spatial distribution of A. leucostomum, including bioclimate, soil, topography, solar radiation, and human footprint data; the variables were screened by Spearman's correlation coefficient and the jackknife method. Twenty variables were finally identified, and three types of models based on the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model were constructed to predict the distribution of A. leucostomum within China under three shared economy pathways (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585): A: prediction of environmental variables under the current climate model; B: prediction of environmental variables + human footprint under the current climate model; and C: prediction of environmental variables under the future climate model (including the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s). The effects of human activities and climate change on the potential geographic distribution of A. leucostomum were explored separately. The results show that precipitation seasonality, human footprint, solar radiation and mean diurnal range are the main factors affecting the distribution of A. leucostomum. Human activities inhibit the spread of A. leucostomum, and climate change promotes its growth, with areas of high suitability and area variation mainly in northern Xinjiang and northern Yunnan. With climate change, in the future, the distribution center of A. leucostomum shows a tendency to migrate to the southeast on the horizontal gradient and to move to higher altitudes on the vertical gradient. This study provides a positive reference value for the control of A. leucostomum and the maintenance of grassland ecological security.

Differential distribution shifts in two subregions of East Asian subtropical evergreen broadleaved forests-a case of Magnoliaceae

Aim

East Asian subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests (EBLFs) are composed of western and eastern subregions with different topographical and environmental conditions. The distribution shifts over time of plants in the two subregions are predicted to be different, but the difference has seldom been investigated.

Methods

Potential distributions of 53 Magnoliaceae species (22 in the western and 31 in the eastern subregion) during the last glacial maximum (LGM), present, and the 2070s were predicted using MaxEnt based on 58 environmental variables. The changes in the distribution range size and centroid over time were analyzed. Species-level potential habitats were overlaid to uncover species diversity distribution, and the distributions over time were overlaid to discover long-term refugia.

Results

At present, the potential distributions are significantly larger than those shown by the occurrence points. During the LGM, 20/22 species in the western subregion experienced increases in range size through downwards and southward migrations, while decreases in range size in the eastern subregion (27/31 species) were accompanied by northward and eastward migrations. In the future, range size declines and northward shifts will both be found; northwestward shifts will exist in most (20/22 species) species in the western subregion, while both northwest- and northeastward shifts will occur in the eastern subregion. The diversity hotspots experienced a slight southward shift in the past and upwards to the mountain region in the future in the western subregion; in the eastern subregion, shrinks occurred in eastern China in the past and shrinks were shown in all regions in the future. Long-term refugia-preserving diversity was found in the mountains across the entire EBLFs region.

Main conclusions

Significant differences in distribution shifts from past to present and similar distribution shifts from present to future are revealed in the two subregions. Species diversity in both subregions experienced no significant shifts from past to future, and Magnoliaceae plants could be preserved in mountainous regions throughout the EBLFs.

Predicting potential distribution of the Rhinoncus sibiricus under climatic in China using MaxEnt

In recent years, buckwheat (Fagopyrum spp.) is being increasingly damaged by the Siberian tortoise beetle (Rhinoncus sibiricus Faust). Adults and nymphs feed on leaf tissues and caulicles, thus damaging its stems and leaves. In this study, we investigated the habits, distribution, and environmental impact of R. sibiricus using MaxEnt, an ecological niche model. Geographic information about the infestation site from previous field surveys and climatic data from 2013 to 2018 were organized and optimized using R. The impact factors were calculated using MaxEnt software. The results indicate that population fluctuations in R. sibiricus are related to changes in temperature, humidity, and their spatial distribution. Under current climatic conditions, R. sibiricus is mainly distributed in northern China, with sporadic distribution in south-western China. The values for a survival probability threshold > 0.3 were: precipitation during the wettest month (bio13), 70.31-137.56 mm; mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), -15.00-0.85°C; mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), 11.88-23.16°C; precipitation during the coldest quarter (biol9), 0-24.39 mm. The main factors contributing > 70% to the models were precipitation during the wettest month and coldest quarter, and mean temperature during the warmest and coldest quarters. Under both future climate models, the center of the fitness zone moves northward. Our results will be useful in guiding administrative decisions and support farmers interested in establishing control and management strategies for R. sibiricus. This study could also serve as a reference for future research on other invasive pests.

Effect of Epichloë Endophyte on the Growth and Carbon Allocation of Its Host Plant Stipa purpurea under Hemiparasitic Root Stress

Epichloë endophytes not only affect the growth and resistance of their host plants but also confer nutrient benefits to parasitized hosts. In this study, we used Pedicularis kansuensis to parasitize Stipa purpurea, both with and without endophytic fungi, and to establish a parasitic system. In this study, endophytic fungal infection was found to increase the dry weight of the leaf, stem, and leaf sheath, as well as the plant height, root length, tiller number, aboveground biomass, and underground biomass of S. purpurea under root hemiparasitic stress. Meanwhile, the 13C allocation of the leaf sheaths and roots of S. purpurea increased as the density of P. kansuensis increased, while the 13C allocation of the leaf sheaths and roots of E+ S. purpurea was lower than that of E- S. purpurea. The 13C allocation of the stem, leaf sheath, and root of E+ S. purpurea was higher than that of its E- counterpart. Furthermore, the content of photosynthetic 13C and the 13C partition rate of the stems, leaves, roots, and entire plant of S. purpurea and P. kansuensis transferred from S. purpurea increased as the density of P. kansuensis increased. These results will generate new insights into the potential role of symbiotic microorganisms in regulating the interaction between root hemiparasites and their hosts.

Two Species Delimitation of Pseudaulacaspis (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) Based on Morphology, Molecular Clustering, and Niche Differentiation

Pseudaucalaspis pentagona and P. prunicola are notorious pests and commonly feed on various ornamental plants and fruit trees worldwide. The two species share many host-plant species, and are similar in morphological characteristics and life cycle, making it difficult to distinguish to distinguish between them. In this study, morphological characteristics, molecular evidence, and ecological niches were used to define these species. We performed PCA analysis on 22 morphological characteristics that allowed the delineation of the species. We then sequenced the COI gene of both species revealing five populations of P. pentagona and one population of P. prunicola, and the higher support rate could distinguish the two species. We also identified the potential distribution area of the two species based on the MaxEnt niche model, which showed that the degree of niche overlap was high, but that they occupied different niches. Ultimately, we combined three lines of evidence to show that the two species are distinctly different. This study supports species definition using combined morphology, genetics, and ecology and provides a theoretical basis for the effective control of these two pests in the future.

Prediction of the potentially suitable areas of Ligularia virgaurea and Ligularia sagitta on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau based on future climate change using the MaxEnt model

Ligularia virgaurea and Ligularia sagitta are two species of poisonous plants with strong invasiveness in natural grasslands in China that have caused considerable harm to animal husbandry and the ecological environment. However, little is known about their suitable habitats and the key environmental factors affecting their distribution. Although some studies have reported the distributions of poisonous plants on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and predicted their potential distributions at local scales in some regions under climate change, there have been few studies on the widespread distributions of L. virgaurea and L. sagitta. In this study, we recorded 276 and 118 occurrence points of L. virgaurea and L. sagitta on the QTP using GPS, and then used the MaxEnt model to predict the distribution of suitable habitats. Results showed that (1) under current climate conditions, L. virgaurea and L. sagitta are mainly distributed in southern Gansu, eastern Qinghai, northwestern Sichuan, eastern Tibet, and southwestern Yunnan, accounting for approximately 34.9% and 39.8% of the total area of the QTP, respectively; (2) the main environmental variables affecting the distribution of suitable habitats for L. virgaurea and L. sagitta are the Human Footprint Index (52.8%, 42.2%), elevation (11%, 4.4%), soil total nitrogen (18.9%, 4.2%), and precipitation seasonality (5.1%, 7.3%); and (3) in the future, in the 2050s and 2070s, the area of habitat of intermediate suitability for L. virgaurea will spread considerably in northwest Sichuan, while that of high suitability for L. sagitta will spread to eastern Tibet and western Sichuan.

Interactive effects of changes in UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems, biogeochemical cycles, and feedbacks to the climate system

Terrestrial organisms and ecosystems are being exposed to new and rapidly changing combinations of solar UV radiation and other environmental factors because of ongoing changes in stratospheric ozone and climate. In this Quadrennial Assessment, we examine the interactive effects of changes in stratospheric ozone, UV radiation and climate on terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles in the context of the Montreal Protocol. We specifically assess effects on terrestrial organisms, agriculture and food supply, biodiversity, ecosystem services and feedbacks to the climate system. Emphasis is placed on the role of extreme climate events in altering the exposure to UV radiation of organisms and ecosystems and the potential effects on biodiversity. We also address the responses of plants to increased temporal variability in solar UV radiation, the interactive effects of UV radiation and other climate change factors (e.g. drought, temperature) on crops, and the role of UV radiation in driving the breakdown of organic matter from dead plant material (i.e. litter) and biocides (pesticides and herbicides). Our assessment indicates that UV radiation and climate interact in various ways to affect the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems, and that by protecting the ozone layer, the Montreal Protocol continues to play a vital role in maintaining healthy, diverse ecosystems on land that sustain life on Earth. Furthermore, the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment are mitigating some of the negative environmental consequences of climate change by limiting the emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting the carbon sequestration potential of vegetation and the terrestrial carbon pool.

An exotic plant successfully invaded as a passenger driven by light availability

Invasive exotic plant species (IEPs) are widely distributed across the globe, but whether IEPs are drivers or passengers of habitat change in the invaded spaces remains unclear. Here, we carried out a vegetation and soil survey in 2018 and two independent field experiments (Pedicularis kansuensis removal in 2014 and 2015, and fertilization experiment since 2012) and found that the invasive annual P. kansuensis was at a disadvantage in light competition compared with perennial native grasses, but the successful invasion of P. kansuensis was due to the sufficient light resources provided by the reduced coverage of the native species. Conversely, nitrogen enrichment can effectively inhibit P. kansuensis invasion by increasing the photocompetitive advantage of the native species. sP. kansuensis invasion did not reduce species richness, but did increase plant community coverage, productivity and soil nutrients. Furthermore, the removal of P. kansuensis had little effect on the plant community structure and soil properties. Our results suggest that the passenger model perfectly explains the benign invasive mechanism of P. kansuensis. The invasion "ticket" of P. kansuensis is a spare ecological niche for light resources released by overgrazing.

Comparison of the effect of temperature and water potential on the seed germination of five Pedicularis kansuensis populations from the Qinghai-Tibet plateau

Temperature and water potentials are considered the most critical environmental factors in seed germinability and subsequent seedling establishment. The thermal and water requirements for germination are species-specific and vary with the environment in which seeds mature from the maternal plants. Pedicularis kansuensis is a root hemiparasitic weed that grows extensively in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau's degraded grasslands and has seriously harmed the grasslands ecosystem and its utilization. Information about temperatures and water thresholds in P. kansuensis seed germination among different populations is useful to predicting and managing the weed's distribution in degraded grasslands. The present study evaluated the effects of temperature and water potentials on P. kansuensis seed germination in cool and warm habitats, based on thermal time and hydrotime models. The results indicate that seeds from cool habitats have a higher base temperature than those from warm habitats, while there is no detectable difference in optimum and ceiling temperatures between habitats. Seed germination in response to water potential differed among the five studied populations. There was a negative correlation between the seed populations' base water potential for 50% (Ψ _b(50)) germination and their hydrotime constant (θ _H). The thermal time and hydrotime models were good predictors of five populations' germination time in response to temperature and water potentials. Consequently, future studies should consider the effects of maternal environmental conditions on seed germination when seeking effective strategies for controlling hemiparasitic weeds in alpine regions.

Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of two relict Liriodendron species by coupling the MaxEnt model and actual physiological indicators in relation to stress tolerance

Climate change has a crucial impact on the distributions of plants, especially relict species. Hence, predicting the potential impact of climate change on the distributions of relict plants is critical for their future conservation. Liriodendron plants are relict trees, and only two natural species have survived: L. chinense and L. tulipifera. However, the extent of the impact of future climate change on the distributions of these two Liriodendron species remains unclear. Therefore, we predicted the suitable habitat distributions of two Liriodendron species under present and future climate scenarios using MaxEnt modeling. The results showed that the area of suitable habitats for two Liriodendron species would significantly decrease. However, the two relict species presented different habitat shift patterns, with a local contraction of suitable habitat for L. chinense and a northward shift in suitable habitat for L. tulipifera, indicating that changes in environmental factors will affect the distributions of these species. Among the environmental factors assessed, May precipitation induced the largest impact on the L. chinense distribution, while L. tulipifera was significantly affected by precipitation in the driest quarter. Furthermore, to explore the relationship between habitat suitability and Liriodendron stress tolerance, we analyzed six physiological indicators of stress tolerance by sampling twelve provenances of L. chinense and five provenances of L. tulipifera. The composite index of six physiological indicators was significantly negatively correlated with the habitat suitability of the species. The stress tolerance of Liriodendron plants in highly suitable areas was lower than that in areas with moderate or low suitability. Overall, these findings improve our understanding of the ecological impacts of climate change, informing future conservation efforts for Liriodendron species.

Predictions Based on Different Climate Change Scenarios: The Habitat of Typical Locust Species Is Shrinking in Kazakhstan and Xinjiang, China

Climate change, especially climate extremes, can increase the uncertainty of locust outbreaks. The Italian locust (Calliptamus italicus (Linnaeus, 1758)), Asian migratory locust (Locusta migratoria migratoria Linnaeus, 1758), and Siberian locust (Gomphocerus sibiricus (Linnaeus, 1767)) are common pests widely distributed in the semidesert grasslands of Central Asia and its surrounding regions. Predicting the geographic distribution changes and future habitats of locusts in the context of climate warming is essential to effectively prevent large and sudden locust outbreaks. In this study, the optimized maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, employing a combination of climatic, soil, and topographic factors, was used to predict the potential fitness areas of typical locusts in the 2030s and 2050s, assuming four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the CMIP6 model. Modeling results showed that the mean area under the curve (AUC) and true statistical skill (TSS) of the MaxEnt model reached 0.933 and 0.7651, respectively, indicating that the model exhibited good prediction performance. Our results showed that soil surface sand content, slope, mean precipitation during the hottest season, and precipitation seasonality were the key environmental variables affecting locust distribution in the region. The three locust species were mainly distributed in the upstream region of the Irtysh River, the Alatao Mountain region, the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, around Sayram Lake, the eastern part of the Alakol Lake region, the Tekes River region, the western part of Ulungur Lake, the Ili River, and the upstream region of the Tarim River. According to several climate projections, the area of potential habitat for the three most common locust species will decrease by 3.9 × 10⁴-4.6 × 10⁴ km² by the 2030s and by 6.4 × 10⁴-10.6 × 10⁴ km² by the 2050s. As the climate becomes more extreme, the suitable area will shrink, but the highly suitable area will expand; thus, the risk of infestation should be taken seriously. Our study present a timely investigation to add to extensive literature currently appearing regarding the myriad ways climate change may affect species. While this naturally details a limited range of taxa, methods and potential impacts may be more broadly applicable to other locust species.

Climate Change and Dispersal Ability Jointly Affects the Future Distribution of Crocodile Lizards

Crocodile lizards (Shinisaurus crocodilurus) are an endangered, 'living fossil' reptile from a monophyletic family and therefore, a high priority for conservation. We constructed climatic models to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of crocodile lizards for the period 2000 to 2100 and determined the key environmental factors that affect the dispersal of this endangered species. For the construction of climatic models, we used 985 presence-only data points and 6 predictor variables which showed excellent performance (AUC = 0.974). The three top-ranked factors predicting crocodile lizard distribution were precipitation of the wettest month (bio13, 37.1%), precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19, 17.9%), and temperature seasonality (bio4, 14.3%). Crocodile lizards were, just as they are now, widely distributed in the north of Guangdong Province in China and Quảng Ninh Province in Vietnam at the last glacial maximum (LGM). Since the LGM, there has been an increase in suitable habitats, particularly in east-central Guangxi Province, China. Under future global warming scenarios, the potential habitat for crocodile lizards is expected to decrease significantly in the next 100 years. Under the most optimistic scenario, only 7.35% to 6.54% of suitable habitat will remain, and under the worst climatic scenario, only 8.34% to 0.86% of suitable habitat will remain. Models for no dispersal and limited dispersal showed that all crocodile lizards would lose habitat as temperatures increase. Our work contributes to an increased understanding of the current and future spatial distribution of the species, supporting practical management and conservation plans.

Predicting the potential distribution of four endangered holoparasites and their primary hosts in China under climate change

Climate change affects parasitic plants and their hosts on distributions. However, little is known about how parasites and their hosts shift in distribution, and niche overlap in response to global change remains unclear to date. Here, the potential distribution and habitat suitability of four endangered holoparasites and their primary hosts in northern China were predicted using MaxEnt based on occurrence records and bioclimatic variables. The results indicated that (1) Temperature annual range (Bio7) and Precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17) were identified as the common key climatic factors influencing distribution (percentage contribution > 10%) for Cynomorium songaricum vs. Nitraria sibirica (i.e., parasite vs. host); Temperature seasonality (Bio4) and Precipitation of driest month (Bio14) for Boschniakia rossica vs. Alnus mandshurica; Bio4 for Cistanche deserticola vs. Haloxylon ammodendron; Precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18) for Cistanche mongolica vs. Tamarix ramosissima. Accordingly, different parasite-host pairs share to varying degree the common climatic factors. (2) Currently, these holoparasites had small suitable habitats (i.e., moderately and highly) (0.97-3.77%), with few highly suitable habitats (0.19-0.81%). Under future scenarios, their suitable habitats would change to some extent; their distribution shifts fell into two categories: growing type (Boschniakia rossica and Cistanche mongolica) and fluctuating type (Cynomorium songaricum and Cistanche deserticola). In contrast, the hosts' current suitable habitats (1.42-13.43%) varied greatly, with highly restricted suitable habitats (0.18-1.00%). Under future scenarios, their suitable habitats presented different trends: growing type (Nitraria sibirica), declining type (Haloxylon ammodendron) and fluctuating type (the other hosts). (3) The niche overlaps between parasites and hosts differed significantly in the future, which can be grouped into two categories: growing type (Boschniakia rossica vs. Alnus mandshurica, Cistanche mongolica vs. Tamarix ramosissima), and fluctuating type (the others). Such niche overlap asynchronies may result in severe spatial limitations of parasites under future climate conditions. Our findings indicate that climate factors restricting parasites and hosts' distributions, niche overlaps between them, together with parasitic species identity, may jointly influence the suitable habitats of parasitic plants. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account the threatened holoparasites themselves in conjunction with their suitable habitats and the parasite-host association when developing conservation planning in the future.

Seed Germination Ecology of Semiparasitic Weed Pedicularis kansuensis in Alpine Grasslands

The semiparasitic weed Pedicularis kansuensis Maxim. has rapidly spread in the alpine grasslands of northern China over the past twenty years and has caused serious ecological problems. In order to effectively halt the spread of this weed, a thorough understanding of the dormancy type and the seed-germination ecology of P. kansuensis is required. We have conducted a series of experiments to investigate the effects of plant growth regulators (gibberellin (GA₃) and strigolactone synthesis (GR24)), as well as different abiotic (temperature, light, cold stratification, and drought) and biotic (aqueous extracts of three native dominant plants) factors on the seed-germination characteristics of P. kansuensis. The seed-germination percentages ranged from 2% to 62% at all of the temperatures that were examined, with the highest occurring at 25/10 °C. The light conditions did not significantly affect the germination percentage. The seed germination was greatly improved after two to eight weeks of cold stratification. The seed germination decreased dramatically with an increasing polyethylene glycol (PEG-6000) concentration, from 55% to 0%, under 10% and 20% PEG-6000. The seed germination was improved at a proper concentration of GA₃, GR24, and the aqueous extracts of Festuca ovina L., Stipa purpurea L., and Leymus secalinus (Georgi) Tzvel. Furthermore, in the pot experiment, the seedling emergence of P. kansuensis was also improved by the cultivation of these three dominant grasses. These findings indicate that the dormancy type of P. kansuensis seeds is non-deep physiological dormancy, and such findings will help in paving the way for the creation of effective weed management strategies, based on a thorough knowledge of germination ecology.

Predicting Climate Change Impacts on the Rare and Endangered Horsfieldia tetratepala in China

Global climate change has become a major threat to biodiversity, posing severe challenges to species conservation. This is particularly true for species such as Horsfieldia tetratepala that have extremely small populations in the wild. Little is known about the species distribution of H. tetratepala in the current climate, as well as how that will change with potential future climates. The key environmental factors that influence its expansion, especially its habitat sustainability and its potential to adapt to climate change, are also unknown, though such information is vital for the protection of this endangered species. Based on six climate factors and 25 species distribution points, this study used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate the potential distribution for H. tetratepala in three periods (current, 2050s, and 2070s), and to investigate the changes in distribution patterns and the main environmental factors affecting species distribution. The modeling results show that the most important bioclimatic variables affecting H. tetratepala were precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio_18) and temperature seasonality (Bio_4). The suitable areas for H. tetratepala will gradually be lost in Yunnan but will be generally offset in the northeastward direction, expanding in Hainan, Guangzhou, and Taiwan provinces under the future climate conditions. Therefore, we recommend protecting the habitats of H. tetratepala in Yunnan and strengthening the in-depth species investigation and monitoring in areas (Hainan, Guangzhou, and Taiwan) where no related reports of H. tetratepala have been reported. The results improve our understanding of this species’ response under the changing climate and benefit strategies for its conservation.

Identification of risk areas for Orobanche cumana and Phelipanche aegyptiaca in China, based on the major host plant and CMIP6 climate scenarios

Parasitic broomrape of the genus Orobanche poses a formidable threat to producing many crops in Europe, Africa, and Asia. Orobanche cumana and Phelipanche aegyptiaca are two of China's most destructive root parasitic plants, causing extreme sunflower, tomato, melon, and tobacco damage. However, the potentially suitable areas of O. cumana and P. aegyptiaca in China have not been predicted, and little is known about the important environmental factors that affect their extension. Due to their invasiveness and economic importance, studying how climate change and host plants may affect broomrapes’ distribution is necessary. In the study, we first predicted the potentially suitable areas of the invasive weeds (O. cumana and P. aegyptiaca) and their susceptible host plants (Helianthus annuus and Solanum lycopersicon) using MaxEnt. Then, the risk zones and distribution shifts of two broomrapes under different climate conditions were identified by incorporating the distribution of their susceptible host plants. The results highlighted that the potential middle‐ and high‐risk zones for O. cumana and P. aegyptiaca amounted to 197.88 × 10⁴ km² and 12.90 × 10⁴ km², respectively. Notably, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia were the highest‐risk areas within the distribution and establishment of O. cumana and P. aegyptiaca. Elevation and topsoil pH were the decisive factors for shaping O. cumana distribution; precipitation seasonality and annual precipitation were the dominant bioclimatic variables limiting the spread of P. aegyptiaca. The potentially suitable areas and risk zones of O. cumana would decrease significantly, and those of P. aegyptiaca would fluctuate slightly under future climate change scenarios. Overall, our study suggested that the two broomrapes’ risk zones will significantly northward to higher latitudes. The results will provide suggestions for preventing O. cumana and P. aegyptiaca.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Meconopsis punicea and Its Influence on Ecosystem Services Supply in the Southeastern Margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Meconopsis punicea is an iconic ornamental and medicinal plant whose natural habitat has degraded under global climate change, posing a serious threat to the future survival of the species. Therefore, it is critical to analyze the influence of climate change on possible distribution of M. punicea for conservation and sustainable utilization of this species. In this study, we used MaxEnt ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution of M. punicea under current and future climate scenarios in the southeastern margin region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Model projections under current climate show that 16.8% of the study area is suitable habitat for Meconopsis. However, future projections indicate a sharp decline in potential habitat for 2050 and 2070 climate change scenarios. Soil type was the most important environmental variable in determining the habitat suitability of M. punicea, with 27.75% contribution to model output. Temperature seasonality (16.41%), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.01%), and precipitation of wettest month (13.02%), precipitation seasonality (9.41%) and annual temperature range (9.24%) also made significant contributions to model output. The mean elevation of suitable habitat for distribution of M. punicea is also likely to shift upward in most future climate change scenarios. This study provides vital information for the protection and sustainable use of medicinal species like M. punicea in the context of global environmental change. Our findings can aid in developing rational, broad-scale adaptation strategies for conservation and management for ecosystem services, in light of future climate changes.

The potential habitat of desert locusts is contracting: predictions under climate change scenarios

Desert locusts are notorious for their widespread distribution and strong destructive power. Their influence extends from the vast arid and semiarid regions of western Africa to northwestern India. Large-scale locust outbreaks can have devastating consequences for food security, and their social impact may be long-lasting. Climate change has increased the uncertainty of desert locust outbreaks, and predicting suitable habitats for this species under climate change scenarios will help humans deal with the potential threat of locust outbreaks. By comprehensively considering climate, soil, and terrain variables, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential habitats of solitary desert locusts in the 2050s and 2070s under the four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in the CMIP6 model. The modeling results show that the average area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) reached 0.908 ± 0.002 and 0.701, respectively, indicating that the MaxEnt model performed extremely well and provided outstanding prediction results. The prediction results indicate that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of the potential habitat of solitary desert locusts. With the increase in radiative forcing overtime, the suitable areas for desert locusts will continue to contract, especially in the 2070s under the SSP585 scenario, and the moderately and highly suitable areas will decrease by 0.88 × 10⁶ km² and 1.55 × 10⁶ km², respectively. Although the potentially suitable area for desert locusts is contracting, the future threat posed by the desert locust to agricultural production and food security cannot be underestimated, given the combination of maintained breeding areas, frequent extreme weather events, pressure from population growth, and volatile sociopolitical environments. In conclusion, methods such as monitoring and early warning, financial support, regional cooperation, and scientific prevention and control of desert locust plagues should be further implemented.

Chemo-taxonomic and biological potential of highly therapeutic plant Pedicularis groenlandica Retz. using multiple microscopic techniques

Pedicularis groenlandica is one of the most important medicinal plant of Deosai Plateau (Gilgit-Baltistan) Pakistan. The present study was aim to evaluate the micromorphological features, phytochemical screening and pharmacological potential of P. groenlandica by using multiple microscopic techniques. Six different solvents were used to prepare P. groenlandica extracts. Phytochemical and antioxidant activities were determined calorimetrically. To investigate antidiabetic, α-amylase inhibition assay was performed. Cytotoxicity was tested using brine shrimp assay. Anti-leishmanial via MTT assay. Disc-diffusion assay was used for protein kinase inhibitory, antibacterial and antifungal activities. Palyno-anatomical study showed significant variation for the authentication and correct identification of this highly therapeutic plant by using light and scanning electron microscopic techniques. All extracts were found rich in phytochemicals, significant amount of phenolic and flavonoid contents were found in methanol extract (PGM) 95.78 mg GAE/g and 66.90 mg QE/g. Highest DPPH scavenging potential with IC₅₀ 88.65 μg/mL, total antioxidant capacity (60.33 mg AAE/g sample) and total reducing power (83.97 mg AAE/g) were found for PGM. Disc-diffusion method showed significant antibacterial and antifungal activities. Noticeable growth inhibition in L. tropica was displayed by n-hexane extract (IC₅₀ 112 μg/mL). Brine shrimp with highest LD₅₀ (67.65 μg/mL) in ethyl-acetate extract. Ethanol extract gives persuasive protein kinase inhibition (26 mm) against Streptomyces 85-E hyphae. Highest alpha-amylase inhibition (74.10%) was found in n-hexane extract. In conclusion, our findings scientifically support the ethno-medicinal and biological potential of P. groenlandica. In future, the plant needs to be explored for further identification and isolation of bioactive compounds to develop new drugs to treat several aliments.

Environmental effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, UV radiation, and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, Update 2020

This assessment by the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP) of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) provides the latest scientific update since our most recent comprehensive assessment (Photochemical and Photobiological Sciences, 2019, 18, 595-828). The interactive effects between the stratospheric ozone layer, solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and climate change are presented within the framework of the Montreal Protocol and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. We address how these global environmental changes affect the atmosphere and air quality; human health; terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; biogeochemical cycles; and materials used in outdoor construction, solar energy technologies, and fabrics. In many cases, there is a growing influence from changes in seasonality and extreme events due to climate change. Additionally, we assess the transmission and environmental effects of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which is responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, in the context of linkages with solar UV radiation and the Montreal Protocol.

Prediction of the Suitable Area of the Chinese White Pines (Pinus subsect. Strobus) under Climate Changes and Implications for Their Conservation

White pines (Pinus subsect. Strobus) play important roles in forest ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. Species of this group are narrowly distributed or endangered in China. In this study, we used a species distribution model (SDM) to project and predict the distribution patterns of the 12 species of Chinese white pine under a variety of paleoclimatic and future climate change scenarios based on 39 high-resolution environmental variables and 1459 distribution records. We also computed the centroid shift, range expansion/contraction, and suitability change of the current distribution area to assess the potential risk to each species in the future. The modeling results revealed that the suitable habitat of each species is consistent with but slightly larger than its actual distribution range and that temperature, precipitation, and UV radiation are important determining factors for the distribution of different white pine species. The results indicate that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) greatly affected the current distribution of the Chinese white pine species. Additionally, it was predicted that under the future climate change scenarios, there will be a reduction in the area of habitats suitable for P. armandii, P. morrisonicola, and P. mastersiana. Furthermore, some of the current distribution sites of P. armandii, P. kwangtungensis, P. mastersiana, P. morrisonicola, P. sibirica, and P. wallichiana were predicted to become more unsuitable under these scenarios. These results indicate that some Chinese white pine species, such as P. armandii, P. morrisonicola, and P. mastersiana, may have a very high risk of population shrinkage in the future. Overall, this study provided relevant data for the long-term conservation (both in situ and ex situ) and sustainable management of Chinese white pine species.

Wetlands rise and fall: Six endangered wetland species showed different patterns of habitat shift under future climate change

Degradation and loss of species' suitable habitats in response to global warming are well documented, which are assumed to be affected by increasing temperature. Conversely, habitat increase of species is little reported and is often considered anomalous and unrelated to climate change. In this study, we first revealed the climate-change-driven habitat shifts of six endangered wetland plants - Bruguiera gymnorrhiza, Carex doniana, Glyptostrobus pensilis, Leersia hexandra, Metasequoia glyptostroboides, and Pedicularis longiflora. The current and future potential habitats of the six species in China were predicted using a maximum entropy model based on thirty-year occurrence records and climate monitoring (from 1960 to 1990). Furthermore, we observed the change of real habitats of the six species based on eight-year field observations (from 2011 to 2019). We found that the six species exhibited three different patterns of habitat shifts including decrease, unstable, and increase. The analysis on the main decisive environmental factors showed that these patterns of habitat shifts are counter to what would be expected global warming but are mostly determined by precipitation-related environmental factors rather than temperature. Collectively, our findings highlight the importance of combining multiple environmental factors including temperature and precipitation for understanding plant responses to climate change.

Predicting the potential distribution of the parasitic Cuscuta chinensis under global warming

Background

The climate is the dominant factor that affects the distribution of plants. Cuscuta chinensis is a stem holoparasitic plant without leaves or roots, which develops a haustorium and sucks nutrients from host plants. The potential distribution of the parasitic plant C. chinensis has not been predicted to date. This study used Maxent modeling to predict the potential global distribution of C. chinensis, based on the following six main bioclimatic variables: annual mean temperature, isothermality, temperature seasonality, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter.

Results

The optimal annual average temperature and isothermality of C. chinensis ranged from 4 to 37 °C and less than 45, respectively, while the optimal temperature seasonality and precipitation seasonality ranged from 4000 to 25,000 and from 50 to 130, respectively. The optimal precipitation of the warmest season ranged from 300 to 1000 mm and from 2500 to 3500 mm, while that of the coldest season was less than 2000 mm. In Asia, C. chinensis is mainly distributed at latitudes ranging from 20° N to 50° N. During three specific historical periods (last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and 1960–1990) the habitats suitable for C. chinensis were concentrated in the central, northern, southern, and eastern parts of China. From the last glacial maximum to the mid-Holocene, the total area with suitability of 0.5–1 increased by 0.0875 million km²; however, from the mid-Holocene to 1960–1990, the total area with suitability of 0.5–1 decreased by 0.0759 million km². The simulation results of habitat suitability in the two representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 (i.e., the low greenhouse gas emissions pathway) and 8.5 (i.e., the high greenhouse gas emissions pathway) indicate that the habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. Compared with RCP2.6, areas with averaged suitability and high suitability for survival (RCP8.5) decreased by 0.18 million km².

Conclusion

Suitable habitats of C. chinensis are situated in central, northern, southern, and eastern China. The habitat suitability of C. chinensis decreased in response to the warming climate. These results provide a reference for the management and control of C. chinensis.

Predictive modelling of the distribution of Clematis sect. Fruticella s. str. under climate change reveals a range expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum

Background

The knowledge of distributional dynamics of living organisms is a prerequisite for protecting biodiversity and for the sustainable use of biotic resources. Clematis sect. Fruticella s. str. is a small group of shrubby, yellow-flowered species distributed mainly in arid and semi-arid areas of China. Plants in this section are both horticulturally and ecologically important.

Methods

Using past, present, and future environmental variables and data with Maximum Entropy (Maxent) modeling, we evaluated the importance of the environmental variables on the section's estimated distributions, thus simulating its distributional dynamics over time. The contractions and expansions of suitable habitat between the past and future scenarios and the present were then compared.

Results and Discussion

The models revealed that the areas with high and moderate suitability currently encompass about 725,110 km². The distribution centroid location varies between points in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia during the different scenarios. Elevation, Mean UV-B of Lowest Month, Precipitation of Coldest Quarter, and Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter were major factors determining the section's distribution. Our modeling indicated that Clematis sect. Fruticella underwent a significant range contraction during the last interglacial period, and then expanded during the last glacial maximum (LGM) to amounts like those of the present. Cold, dry, and relatively stable climate, as well as steppe or desert steppe environments may have facilitated range expansion of this cold-adapted, drought-resistant plant taxon during the LGM. Predicted future scenarios show little change in the amounts of suitable habitat for Clematis sect. Fruticella. This study aids understanding of the distributional dynamics of Clematis sect. Fruticella, and the results will help the conservation and sustainable use of these important woody plants in Chinese arid and semiarid areas.