Tracking the temporal variation of COVID-19 surges through wastewater-based epidemiology during the peak of the pandemic: A six-month long study in Charlotte, North Carolina

Integrating wastewater surveillance and meteorological data to monitor seasonal variability of enteric and respiratory pathogens for infectious disease control in Dhaka city

BACKGROUND

Seasonal meteorological variations influence the spread of infectious diseases. Wastewater surveillance helps understanding pathogen transmission dynamics, particularly in urban areas of climate-vulnerable countries like Bangladesh.

METHODS

We analysed 54 weeks of wastewater surveillance, clinical surveillance, and meteorological data from Dhaka, Bangladesh. Samples from 11 sites were tested for Vibrio cholerae (V. cholerae), SARS-CoV-2, Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi), and Group A rotavirus. Diarrhoeal Disease Surveillance data were sourced from icddr,b, and meteorological data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department. Regression models adjusted for site and time variations were used for statistical analysis.

RESULTS

Proportion of confirmed cholera cases among the diarrhoeal disease surveillance recruits were highest during post-monsoon (coef: 2.53; 95 % CI: 0.41 to 4.67; p = 0.029). V. cholerae log10 concentrations in wastewater were positively associated with pre-monsoon (coef: 0.93; 95 % CI: 0.26 to 1.58; p = 0.010), while SARS-CoV-2 peaked during monsoon (coef: 1.85; 95 % CI: 0.96 to 2.73; p < 0.001). S. Typhi and rotavirus log10 concentrations showed negative associations with pre-monsoon (coef: -0.96; 95 % CI: -1.68 to -0.27; p = 0.011, and -0.84; 95 % CI: -1.17 to -0.50; p < 0.001, respectively). Temperature positively influenced log10 concentrations of V. cholerae (adj. coef: 0.09; 95 % CI: 0.02 to 0.15; p = 0.014) and SARS-CoV-2 (adj. coef: 0.19; 95 % CI: 0.10 to 0.27; p < 0.001), but negatively associated with rotavirus (adj. coef: -0.06; 95 % CI: -0.10 to -0.03; p < 0.001). Similar associations were found between pathogen-positive samples and temperature.

CONCLUSION

Our study shows that seasonal, and meteorological factors (particularly temperature) influence the patterns and abundance of pathogens in wastewater and help in understanding disease transmission across different weather patterns.

Predicting COVID-19 in Ohio: Insights from wastewater, demographic and socioeconomic data

More than four years into the COVID-19 pandemic, clear patterns have emerged showing that the virus does not affect all populations uniformly. Demographic and socioeconomic disparities play a significant role in the vulnerability to and spread of SARS-CoV-2. Analyzing these disparities can offer insights into the pandemic's dynamics, helping to identify critical factors that need to be addressed in efforts to mitigate the pandemic's impact globally. Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS), a crucial tool for tracking the virus, offers a unique perspective on how socioeconomic and demographic factors might influence infection rates across different communities. However, estimating and predicting the extent of the epidemic from WBS results is still challenging. In our study, we tried to address these challenges by analyzing data from 55 sites in Ohio, USA, with populations ranging from 3300 to 654,817, to better understand the pandemic's dynamics and WBS effectiveness in monitoring COVID-19 spread. Factors such as population size, poverty rate, racial demographics (specifically white and black populations), and median income showed the strongest correlations with both clinical cases and wastewater results, with population size being the most important factor. Moreover, among eight evaluated machine learning models, k-Nearest Neighbors (R2 = 0.873), Random Forest (R2 = 0.862), and XGBoost (R2 = 0.854) were the most effective in predicting clinical cases from WBS data across demographic and socioeconomic categories, while Linear (R2 = 0.578) and Ridge+Linear (R2 = 0.595) were least effective. Thus, these findings highlight the potential of machine learning to predict COVID-19 cases from WBS data across a wide range of demographic and socioeconomic categories.

The influence of environmental factors on the detection and quantification of SARS-CoV-2 variants in dormitory wastewater at a primarily undergraduate institution

Testing for the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has been crucial in tracking disease spread and informing public health decisions. Wastewater-based epidemiology has helped to alleviate some of the strain of testing through broader, population-level surveillance, and has been applied widely on college campuses. However, questions remain about the impact of various sampling methods, target types, environmental factors, and infrastructure variables on SARS-CoV-2 detection. Here, we present a data set of over 800 wastewater samples that sheds light on the influence of a variety of these factors on SARS-CoV-2 quantification using droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) from building-specific sewage infrastructure. We consistently quantified a significantly higher number of copies of virus per liter for the target nucleocapsid 2 (N2) compared to nucleocapsid 1 (N1), regardless of the sampling method (grab vs composite). We further show some dormitory-specific differences in SARS-CoV-2 abundance, including correlations to dormitory population size. Environmental variables like precipitation and temperature show little to no impact on virus load, with the exception of higher temperatures for grab sample data. We observed significantly higher gene copy numbers of the Omicron variant than the Delta variant within ductile iron pipes but no difference in nucleocapsid abundance (N1 or N2) across the three different sewage pipe types in our data set. Our results indicate that contextual variables should be considered when interpreting wastewater-based epidemiological data.

IMPORTANCE

Testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), has been crucial in tracking the spread of the virus and informing public health decisions. SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA is shed by symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals, allowing its genetic material to be detected and quantified in wastewater. Here, we used wastewater-based epidemiology to measure SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA from several dormitories on the Appalachian State University campus and examined the impact of sampling methods, target types, environmental factors, and infrastructure variables on quantification. Changes in the quantification of SARS-CoV-2 were observed based on target type, as well as trends for the quantification of the Delta and Omicron variants by sampling method. These results highlight the value of applying the data-inquiry practices used in this study to better contextualize wastewater sampling results.

Wastewater surveillance to assess cocaine and methylenedioxymethamphetamine use trends during a major music festival in Brazil

Wastewater-based epidemiology was applied in northeastern Brazil during a dance festival, revealing that cocaine consumption doubled during the event days. The daily drug loads were 0.95 ± 0.03 to 11.4 ± 0.4 g/day for BE, 1.8 ± 0.4 to 7.6 ± 0.3 g/day for COC, 0.04 ± 0.02 to 0.19 ± 0.02 g/day for COE, and 0.08 ± 0.02 to 0.80 ± 0.02 g/day for MDMA.

Estimating rates of change to interpret quantitative wastewater surveillance of disease trends

BACKGROUND

Wastewater monitoring data can be used to estimate disease trends to inform public health responses. One commonly estimated metric is the rate of change in pathogen quantity, which typically correlates with clinical surveillance in retrospective analyses. However, the accuracy of rate of change estimation approaches has not previously been evaluated.

OBJECTIVES

We assessed the performance of approaches for estimating rates of change in wastewater pathogen loads by generating synthetic wastewater time series data for which rates of change were known. Each approach was also evaluated on real-world data.

METHODS

Smooth trends and their first derivatives were jointly sampled from Gaussian processes (GP) and independent errors were added to generate synthetic viral load measurements; the range hyperparameter and error variance were varied to produce nine simulation scenarios representing different potential disease patterns. The directions and magnitudes of the rate of change estimates from four estimation approaches (two established and two developed in this work) were compared to the GP first derivative to evaluate classification and quantitative accuracy. Each approach was also implemented for public SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring data collected January 2021-May 2023 at 25 sites in North Carolina, USA.

RESULTS

All four approaches inconsistently identified the correct direction of the trend given by the sign of the GP first derivative. Across all nine simulated disease patterns, between a quarter and a half of all estimates indicated the wrong trend direction, regardless of estimation approach. The proportion of trends classified as plateaus (statistically indistinguishable from zero) for the North Carolina SARS-CoV-2 data varied considerably by estimation method but not by site.

DISCUSSION

Our results suggest that wastewater measurements alone might not provide sufficient data to reliably track disease trends in real-time. Instead, wastewater viral loads could be combined with additional public health surveillance data to improve predictions of other outcomes.

Tracking Chlamydia and Syphilis in the Detroit Metro Area by Molecular Analysis of Environmental Samples

This paper describes one of the first studies applying wastewater surveillance to monitor Chlamydia and Syphilis and back-estimate infections in the community, based on bacterial shedding and wastewater surveillance data. Molecular biology laboratory methods were optimized, and a workflow was designed to implement wastewater surveillance tracking Chlamydia and Syphilis in the Detroit metro area (DMA), one of the most populous metropolitan areas in the U.S. Untreated composite wastewater samples were collected weekly from the three main interceptors that service DMA, which collect wastewater and discharge it to the Great Lakes Water Authority Water Resource Recovery Facility. Additionally, untreated wastewater was also collected from street manholes in three neighborhood sewersheds in Wayne, Macomb, and Oakland counties. Centrifugation, DNA extraction, and ddPCR methods were optimized and performed, targeting Chlamydia trachomatis and Treponema pallidum, the causative agents of Chlamydia and Syphilis, respectively. The limit of blank and limit of detection methods were determined experimentally for both targets. Both targets were detected and monitored in wastewater between December 25th, 2023, and April 22nd, 2024. The magnitudes of C. trachomatis and T. pallidum concentrations observed in neighborhood sewersheds were higher as compared to the concentrations observed in the interceptors. Infections of Chlamydia and Syphilis were back-estimated through an optimized formula based on shedding dynamics and wastewater surveillance data, which indicated potentially underreported conditions relative to publicly available clinical data.

Comparative analyses of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in Detroit wastewater quantified with CDC N1, N2, and SC2 assays reveal optimal target for predicting COVID-19 cases

To monitor COVID-19 through wastewater surveillance, global researchers dedicated significant endeavors and resources to develop and implement diverse RT-qPCR or RT-ddPCR assays targeting different genes of SARS-CoV-2. Effective wastewater surveillance hinges on the appropriate selection of the most suitable assay, especially for resource-constrained regions where scant technical and socioeconomic resources restrict the options for testing with multiple assays. Further research is imperative to evaluate the existing assays through comprehensive comparative analyses. Such analyses are crucial for health agencies and wastewater surveillance practitioners in the selection of appropriate methods for monitoring COVID-19. In this study, untreated wastewater samples were collected weekly from the Detroit wastewater treatment plant, Michigan, USA, between January and December 2023. Polyethylene glycol precipitation (PEG) was applied to concentrate the samples followed by RNA extraction and RT-ddPCR. Three assays including N1, N2 (US CDC Real-Time Reverse Transcription PCR Panel for Detection of SARS-CoV-2), and SC2 assay (US CDC Influenza SARS-CoV-2 Multiplex Assay) were implemented to detect SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater. The limit of blank and limit of detection for the three assays were experimentally determined. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations were evaluated and compared through three statistical approaches, including Pearson and Spearman's rank correlations, Dynamic Time Warping, and vector autoregressive models. N1 and N2 demonstrated the highest correlation and most similar time series patterns. Conversely, N2 and SC2 assay demonstrated the lowest correlation and least similar time series patterns. N2 was identified as the optimal target to predict COVID-19 cases. This study presents a rigorous effort in evaluating and comparing SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations quantified with N1, N2, and SC2 assays and their interrelations and correlations with clinical cases. This study provides valuable insights into identifying the optimal target for monitoring COVID-19 through wastewater surveillance.

Public health use and lessons learned from a statewide SARS-CoV-2 wastewater monitoring program (MiNET)

The global SARS-CoV-2 monitoring effort has been extensive, resulting in many states and countries establishing wastewater-based epidemiology programs to address the spread of the virus during the pandemic. Challenges for programs include concurrently optimizing methods, training new laboratories, and implementing successful surveillance programs that can rapidly translate results for public health, and policy making. Surveillance in Michigan early in the pandemic in 2020 highlights the importance of quality-controlled data and explores correlations with wastewater and clinical case data aggregated at the state level. The lessons learned and potential measures to improve public utilization of results are discussed. The Michigan Network for Environmental Health and Technology (MiNET) established a network of laboratories that partnered with local health departments, universities, wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) and other stakeholders to monitor SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater at 214 sites in Michigan. MiNET consisted of nineteen laboratories, twenty-nine local health departments, 6 Native American tribes, and 60 WWTPs monitoring sites representing 45 % of Michigan's population from April 6 and December 29, 2020. Three result datasets were created based on quality control criteria. Wastewater results that met all quality assurance criteria (Dataset Mp) produced strongest correlations with reported clinical cases at 16 days lag (rho = 0.866, p < 0.05). The project demonstrated the ability to successfully track SARS-CoV-2 on a large, state-wide scale, particularly data that met the outlined quality criteria and provided an early warning of increasing COVID-19 cases. MiNET is currently poised to leverage its competency to complement public health surveillance networks through environmental monitoring for new and emerging pathogens of concern and provides a valuable resource to state and federal agencies to support future responses.

Comparison of Different Reverse Transcriptase-Polymerase Chain Reaction-Based Methods for Wastewater Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2: Exploratory Study

BACKGROUND

Many countries have applied the wastewater surveillance of the COVID-19 pandemic to their national public health monitoring measures. The most used methods for detecting SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater are quantitative reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) and reverse transcriptase-droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (RT-ddPCR). Previous comparison studies have produced conflicting results, thus more research on the subject is required.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to compare RT-qPCR and RT-ddPCR for detecting SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater. It also aimed to investigate the effect of changes in the analytical pipeline, including the RNA extraction kit, RT-PCR kit, and target gene assay, on the results. Another aim was to find a detection method for low-resource settings.

METHODS

We compared 2 RT-qPCR kits, TaqMan RT-qPCR and QuantiTect RT-qPCR, and RT-ddPCR based on sensitivity, positivity rates, variability, and correlation of SARS-CoV-2 gene copy numbers in wastewater to the incidence of COVID-19. Furthermore, we compared 2 RNA extraction methods, column- and magnetic-bead-based. In addition, we assessed 2 target gene assays for RT-qPCR, N1 and N2, and 2 target gene assays for ddPCR N1 and E. Reverse transcription strand invasion-based amplification (RT-SIBA) was used to detect SARS-CoV-2 from wastewater qualitatively.

RESULTS

Our results indicated that the most sensitive method to detect SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater was RT-ddPCR. It had the highest positivity rate (26/30), and its limit of detection was the lowest (0.06 gene copies/µL). However, we obtained the best correlation between COVID-19 incidence and SARS-CoV-2 gene copy number in wastewater using TaqMan RT-qPCR (correlation coefficient [CC]=0.697, P<.001). We found a significant difference in sensitivity between the TaqMan RT-qPCR kit and the QuantiTect RT-qPCR kit, the first having a significantly lower limit of detection and a higher positivity rate than the latter. Furthermore, the N1 target gene assay was the most sensitive for both RT-qPCR kits, while no significant difference was found between the gene targets using RT-ddPCR. In addition, the use of different RNA extraction kits affected the result when the TaqMan RT-qPCR kit was used. RT-SIBA was able to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater.

CONCLUSIONS

As our study, as well as most of the previous studies, has shown RT-ddPCR to be more sensitive than RT-qPCR, its use in the wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 should be considered, especially if the amount of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in the population was low. All the analysis steps must be optimized for wastewater surveillance as our study showed that all the analysis steps including the compatibility of the RNA extraction, the RT-PCR kit, and the target gene assay influence the results. In addition, our study showed that RT-SIBA could be used to detect SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater if a qualitative result is sufficient.

Administration of a bacterial lysate to the airway compartment is sufficient to inhibit allergen-induced lung eosinophilia in germ-free mice

The nexus between eosinophils and microbes is attracting increasing attention. We previously showed that airway administration of sterile microbial products contained in dust collected from traditional dairy farms virtually abrogated bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) eosinophilia and other cardinal asthma phenotypes in allergen-sensitized specific pathogen-free (SPF) mice. Interestingly, comparable inhibition of allergen-induced BAL eosinophilia and promotion of airway barrier integrity were found upon administration of a sterile, pharmacological-grade bacterial lysate, OM-85, to the airway compartment of allergen-sensitized SPF mice. Here, we asked whether intrinsic properties of airway-delivered microbial products were sufficient to inhibit allergic lung inflammation or whether these effects were mediated by reprogramming of the host microbiota. We compared germ-free (GF) mice and offspring of GF mice associated with healthy mouse gut microbiota and maintained under SPF conditions for multiple generations (Ex-GF mice). These mice were treated intranasally with OM-85 and evaluated in the ovalbumin and Alternaria models of allergic asthma focusing primarily on BAL eosinophilia. Levels of allergen-induced BAL eosinophilia were comparable in GF and conventionalized Ex-GF mice. Airway administration of the OM-85 bacterial lysate was sufficient to inhibit allergen-induced lung eosinophilia in both Ex-GF and GF mice, suggesting that host microbiota are not required for the protective effects of bacterial products in these models and local airway exposure to microbial products is an effective source of protection. OM-85-dependent inhibition of BAL eosinophilia in GF mice was accompanied by suppression of lung type 2 cytokines and eosinophil-attracting chemokines, suggesting that OM-85 may work at least by decreasing eosinophil lung recruitment.

Wastewater surveillance for viral pathogens: A tool for public health

A focus on water quality has intensified globally, considering its critical role in sustaining life and ecosystems. Wastewater, reflecting societal development, profoundly impacts public health. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as a surveillance tool for detecting outbreaks early, monitoring infectious disease trends, and providing real-time insights, particularly in vulnerable communities. WBE aids in tracking pathogens, including viruses, in sewage, offering a comprehensive understanding of community health and lifestyle habits. With the rise in global COVID-19 cases, WBE has gained prominence, aiding in monitoring SARS-CoV-2 levels worldwide. Despite advancements in water treatment, poorly treated wastewater discharge remains a threat, amplifying the spread of water-, sanitation-, and hygiene (WaSH)-related diseases. WBE, serving as complementary surveillance, is pivotal for monitoring community-level viral infections. However, there is untapped potential for WBE to expand its role in public health surveillance. This review emphasizes the importance of WBE in understanding the link between viral surveillance in wastewater and public health, highlighting the need for its further integration into public health management.

The role of catchment population size, data normalization, and chronology of public health interventions on wastewater-based COVID-19 viral trends

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic presented the most challenging global crisis in recent times. A pandemic caused by a novel pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2 necessitated the development of innovative techniques for the monitoring and surveillance of COVID-19 infections within communities. Wastewater surveillance (WWS) is recognized as a non-invasive, cost-effective, and valuable epidemiological tool to monitor the prevalence of COVID-19 infections in communities. Seven municipal wastewater sampling sites representing distinct sewershed communities were selected for the surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Durham Region, Ontario, Canada over 8 months from March 2021 to October 2021. Viral RNA fragments of SARS-CoV-2 and the normalization target pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) were concentrated from wastewater influent using the PEG/NaCl superspeed centrifugation method and quantified using RT-qPCR. Strong significant correlations (Spearman's rs = 0.749 to 0.862, P < 0.001) were observed between SARS-CoV-2 gene copies/mL of wastewater and clinical cases reported in each delineated sewershed by onset date. Although raw wastewater offered higher correlation coefficients with clinical cases by onset date compared to PMMoV normalized data, only one site had a statistically significantly higher Spearman's correlation coefficient value for raw data than normalized data. Implementation of community stay-at-home orders and vaccinations over the course of the study period in 2021 were found to strongly correspond to decreasing SARS-CoV-2 wastewater trends in the wastewater treatment plants and upstream pumping stations.

A scoping review of global SARS-CoV-2 wastewater-based epidemiology in light of COVID-19 pandemic

Recently, wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) research has experienced a strong impetus during the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. However, a few technical issues related to surveillance strategies, such as standardized procedures ranging from sampling to testing protocols, need to be resolved in preparation for future infectious disease outbreaks. This review highlights the study characteristics, potential use of WBE and overview of methods, as well as methods utilized to detect severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) including its variant in wastewater. A literature search was performed electronically in PubMed and Scopus according to PRISMA guidelines for relevant peer-reviewed articles published between January 2020 and March 2022. The search identified 588 articles, out of which 221 fulfilled the necessary criteria and are discussed in this review. Most global WBE studies were conducted in North America (n = 75, 34 %), followed by Europe (n = 68, 30.8 %), and Asia (n = 43, 19.5 %). The review also showed that most of the application of WBE observed were to correlate SARS-CoV-2 ribonucleic acid (RNA) trends in sewage with epidemiological data (n = 90, 40.7 %). The techniques that were often used globally for sample collection, concentration, preferred matrix recovery control and various sample types were also discussed. Overall, this review provided a framework for researchers specializing in WBE to apply strategic approaches to their research questions in achieving better functional insights. In addition, areas that needed more in-depth analysis, data collection, and ideas for new initiatives were identified.

Beyond linear regression: Modeling COVID-19 clinical cases with wastewater surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 for the city of Athens and Ohio University campus

Wastewater-based surveillance has emerged as a detection tool for population-wide infectious diseases, including coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Infected individuals shed the virus, which can be detected in wastewater using molecular techniques such as reverse transcription-digital polymerase chain reaction (RT-dPCR). This study examined the association between the number of clinical cases and the concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater beyond linear regression and for various normalizations of viral loads. Viral loads were measured in a total of 446 wastewater samples during the period from August 2021 to April 2022. These samples were collected from nine different locations, with 220 samples taken from four specific sites within the city of Athens and 226 samples from five sites within Ohio University. The correlation between COVID-19 cases and wastewater viral concentrations, which was estimated using the Pearson correlation coefficient, was statistically significant and ranged from 0.6 to 0.9. In addition, time-lagged cross correlation was applied to identify the lag time between clinical and wastewater data, estimated 4 to 7 days. While we also explored the effect on the correlation coefficients of various normalizations of viral loads accounting for procedural loss or amount of fecal material and of estimated lag times, these alternative specifications did not change our substantive conclusions. Additionally, several linear and non-linear regression models were applied to predict the COVID-19 cases given wastewater data as input. The non-linear approach was found to yield the highest R-squared and Pearson correlation and lowest Mean Absolute Error values between the predicted and actual number of COVID-19 cases for both aggregated OHIO Campus and city data. Our results provide support for previous studies on correlation and time lag and new evidence that non-linear models, approximated with artificial neural networks, should be implemented for WBS of contagious diseases.

COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths predicted by SARS-CoV-2 levels in Boise, Idaho wastewater

The viral load of COVID-19 in untreated wastewater from Idaho's capital city Boise, ID (Ada County) has been used to predict changes in hospital admissions (statewide in Idaho) and deaths (Ada County) using distributed fixed lag modeling and artificial neural networks (ANN). The wastewater viral counts were used to determine the lag time between peaks in wastewater viral counts and COVID-19 hospitalizations as well as deaths (14 and 23 days, respectively). Quantitative measurement of SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA counts in the untreated wastewater was determined three times a week using RT-qPCR over a span of 13 months. To mitigate the effects of PCR inhibitors in wastewater, a series of dilution tests were conducted, and the 1/4 dilution was used to generate the most successful model. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA counts and hospitalization from June 7, 2021 to December 29, 2021 were used as training data to predict hospitalizations; and wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA counts and deaths from June 7, 2021 to December 20, 2021 were used as training data to predict deaths. These training data were used to make predictive ANN models for future hospitalizations and deaths. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of prediction of deaths from COVID-19 based on wastewater SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA counts using machine learning-based multilayered ANN. The applied modeling demonstrates that wastewater surveillance data can be combined with hospitalizations and death data to generate machine learning-based ANN models that predict future COVID-19 hospital admissions and deaths, providing an early warning for medical response teams and healthcare policymakers.

Effectiveness of environmental surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 as an early-warning system: Update of a systematic review during the second year of the pandemic

The aim of this updated systematic review was to offer an overview of the effectiveness of environmental surveillance (ES) of SARS-CoV-2 as a potential early-warning system (EWS) for COVID-19 and new variants of concerns (VOCs) during the second year of the pandemic. An updated literature search was conducted to evaluate the added value of ES of SARS-CoV-2 for public health decisions. The search for studies published between June 2021 and July 2022 resulted in 1,588 publications, identifying 331 articles for full-text screening. A total of 151 publications met our inclusion criteria for the assessment of the effectiveness of ES as an EWS and early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants. We identified a further 30 publications among the grey literature. ES confirms its usefulness as an EWS for detecting new waves of SARS-CoV-2 infection with an average lead time of 1-2 weeks for most of the publication. ES could function as an EWS for new VOCs in areas with no registered cases or limited clinical capacity. Challenges in data harmonization and variant detection require standardized approaches and innovations for improved public health decision-making. ES confirms its potential to support public health decision-making and resource allocation in future outbreaks.

Wastewater-based surveillance models for COVID-19: A focused review on spatio-temporal models

The evident shedding of the SARS-CoV-2 RNA particles from infected individuals into the wastewater opened up a tantalizing array of possibilities for prediction of COVID-19 prevalence prior to symptomatic case identification through community testing. Many countries have therefore explored the use of wastewater metrics as a surveillance tool, replacing traditional direct measurement of prevalence with cost-effective approaches based on SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater samples. Two important aspects in building prediction models are: time over which the prediction occurs and space for which the predicted case numbers is shown. In this review, our main focus was on finding mathematical models which take into the account both the time-varying and spatial nature of wastewater-based metrics into account. We used six main characteristics as our assessment criteria: i) modelling approach; ii) temporal coverage; iii) spatial coverage; iv) sample size; v) wastewater sampling method; and vi) covariates included in the modelling. The majority of studies in the early phases of the pandemic recognized the temporal association of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration level in wastewater with the number of COVID-19 cases, ignoring their spatial context. We examined 15 studies up to April 2023, focusing on models considering both temporal and spatial aspects of wastewater metrics. Most early studies correlated temporal SARS-CoV-2 RNA levels with COVID-19 cases but overlooked spatial factors. Linear regression and SEIR models were commonly used (n = 10, 66.6 % of studies), along with machine learning (n = 1, 6.6 %) and Bayesian approaches (n = 1, 6.6 %) in some cases. Three studies employed spatio-temporal modelling approach (n = 3, 20.0 %). We conclude that the development, validation and calibration of further spatio-temporally explicit models should be done in parallel with the advancement of wastewater metrics before the potential of wastewater as a surveillance tool can be fully realised.

M. AH, Fernandez S, Huang AT, Vatanaprasan P, Jay DJ, Saethang T, Luk-in S, Storer RJ, Ounjai P, Devanga Ragupathi NK, Kanthawee P, Sano D, Furukawa T, Sei K, Leelahavanichkul A, Kanjanabuch T, Hirankarn N, Higgins PG, Kicic A, Singer AC, Chatsuwan T, Trowsdale S, Abe S, McLellan AD, Ishikawa H. COVID-19 monitoring with sparse sampling of sewered and non-sewered wastewater in urban and rural communities

Equitable SARS-CoV-2 surveillance in low-resource communities lacking centralized sewers is critical as wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) progresses. However, large-scale studies on SARS-CoV-2 detection in wastewater from low-and middle-income countries is limited because of economic and technical reasons. In this study, wastewater samples were collected twice a month from 186 urban and rural subdistricts in nine provinces of Thailand mostly having decentralized and non-sewered sanitation infrastructure and analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 RNA variants using allele-specific RT-qPCR. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration was used to estimate the real-time incidence and time-varying effective reproduction number (Re). Results showed an increase in SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater from urban and rural areas 14-20 days earlier than infected individuals were officially reported. It also showed that community/food markets were "hot spots" for infected people. This approach offers an opportunity for early detection of transmission surges, allowing preparedness and potentially mitigating significant outbreaks at both spatial and temporal scales.

Targeting a free viral fraction enhances the early alert potential of wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2: a methods comparison spanning the transition between delta and omicron variants in a large urban center

Introduction

Wastewater surveillance has proven to be a valuable approach to monitoring the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Recognizing the benefits of wastewater surveillance as a tool to support public health in tracking SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory pathogens, numerous wastewater virus sampling and concentration methods have been tested for appropriate applications as well as their significance for actionability by public health practices.

Methods

Here, we present a 34-week long wastewater surveillance study that covers nearly 4 million residents of the Detroit (MI, United States) metropolitan area. Three primary concentration methods were compared with respect to recovery of SARS-CoV-2 from wastewater: Virus Adsorption-Elution (VIRADEL), polyethylene glycol precipitation (PEG), and polysulfone (PES) filtration. Wastewater viral concentrations were normalized using various parameters (flow rate, population, total suspended solids) to account for variations in flow. Three analytical approaches were implemented to compare wastewater viral concentrations across the three primary concentration methods to COVID-19 clinical data for both normalized and non-normalized data: Pearson and Spearman correlations, Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), and Time Lagged Cross Correlation (TLCC) and peak synchrony.

Results

It was found that VIRADEL, which captures free and suspended virus from supernatant wastewater, was a leading indicator of COVID-19 cases within the region, whereas PEG and PES filtration, which target particle-associated virus, each lagged behind the early alert potential of VIRADEL. PEG and PES methods may potentially capture previously shed and accumulated SARS-CoV-2 resuspended from sediments in the interceptors.

Discussion

These results indicate that the VIRADEL method can be used to enhance the early-warning potential of wastewater surveillance applications although drawbacks include the need to process large volumes of wastewater to concentrate sufficiently free and suspended virus for detection. While lagging the VIRADEL method for early-alert potential, both PEG and PES filtration can be used for routine COVID-19 wastewater monitoring since they allow a large number of samples to be processed concurrently while being more cost-effective and with rapid turn-around yielding results same day as collection.

Recent progress on wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 surveillance: A systematic review of analytical procedures and epidemiological modeling

On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), whose causative agent is the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a pandemic. This virus is predominantly transmitted via respiratory droplets and shed via sputum, saliva, urine, and stool. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been able to monitor the circulation of viral pathogens in the population. This tool demands both in-lab and computational work to be meaningful for, among other purposes, the prediction of outbreaks. In this context, we present a systematic review that organizes and discusses laboratory procedures for SARS-CoV-2 RNA quantification from a wastewater matrix, along with modeling techniques applied to the development of WBE for COVID-19 surveillance. The goal of this review is to present the current panorama of WBE operational aspects as well as to identify current challenges related to it. Our review was conducted in a reproducible manner by following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines for systematic reviews. We identified a lack of standardization in wastewater analytical procedures. Regardless, the reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) approach was the most reported technique employed to detect and quantify viral RNA in wastewater samples. As a more convenient sample matrix, we suggest the solid portion of wastewater to be considered in future investigations due to its higher viral load compared to the liquid fraction. Regarding the epidemiological modeling, the data-driven approach was consistently used for the prediction of variables associated with outbreaks. Future efforts should also be directed toward the development of rapid, more economical, portable, and accurate detection devices.

Wastewater early warning system for SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and variants in a Coruña, Spain

Wastewater-based epidemiology has been widely used as a cost-effective method for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic at the community level. Here we describe COVIDBENS, a wastewater surveillance program running from June 2020 to March 2022 in the wastewater treatment plant of Bens in A Coruña (Spain). The main goal of this work was to provide an effective early warning tool based in wastewater epidemiology to help in decision-making at both the social and public health levels. RT-qPCR procedures and Illumina sequencing were used to weekly monitor the viral load and to detect SARS-CoV-2 mutations in wastewater, respectively. In addition, own statistical models were applied to estimate the real number of infected people and the frequency of each emerging variant circulating in the community, which considerable improved the surveillance strategy. Our analysis detected 6 viral load waves in A Coruña with concentrations between 10³ and 10⁶ SARS-CoV-2 RNA copies/L. Our system was able to anticipate community outbreaks during the pandemic with 8-36 days in advance with respect to clinical reports and, to detect the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants in A Coruña such as Alpha (B.1.1.7), Delta (B.1.617.2), and Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA.2) in wastewater with 42, 30, and 27 days, respectively, before the health system did. Data generated here helped local authorities and health managers to give a faster and more efficient response to the pandemic situation, and also allowed important industrial companies to adapt their production to each situation. The wastewater-based epidemiology program developed in our metropolitan area of A Coruña (Spain) during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic served as a powerful early warning system combining statistical models with mutations and viral load monitoring in wastewater over time.

Exploration on wastewater-based epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2: Mimic relative quantification with endogenous biomarkers as internal reference

Wastewater-based epidemiology has become a powerful surveillance tool for monitoring the pandemic of COVID-19. Although it is promising to quantitatively correlate the SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater with the incidence of community infection, there is still no consensus on whether the viral nucleic acid concentration in sewage should be normalized against the abundance of endogenous biomarkers and which biomarker should be used as a reference for the normalization. Here, several candidate endogenous reference biomarkers for normalization of SARS-CoV-2 signal in municipal sewage were evaluated. The human fecal indicator virus (crAssphage) is a promising candidate of endogenous reference biomarker for data normalization of both DNA and RNA viruses for its intrinsic viral nature and high and stable content in sewage. Without constructing standard curves, the relative quantification of sewage viral nucleic acid against the abundance of the reference biomarker can be used to correlate with community COVID-19 incidence, which was proved via mimic experiments by spiking pseudovirus of different concentrations in sewage samples. Dilution of pseudovirus-seeded wastewater did not affect the relative abundance of viral nucleic acid, demonstrating that relative quantification can overcome the sewage dilution effects caused by the greywater input, precipitation and/or groundwater infiltration. The process of concentration, recovery and detection of the endogenous biomarker was consistent with that of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. Thus, it is necessary to co-quantify the endogenous biomarker because it can be not only an internal reference for data normalization, but also a process control.

Monitoring of COVID-19 in wastewater across the Eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan

Wastewater-based epidemiology is being used as a tool to monitor the spread of COVID-19 and provide an early warning for the presence or increase of clinical cases in a community. The majority of wastewater-based epidemiology for COVID-19 tracking has been utilized in sewersheds that service populations in the tens-to-hundreds of thousands. Few studies have been conducted to assess the usefulness of wastewater in predicting COVID-19 clinical cases specifically in rural areas. This study collected samples from 16 locations across the Eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan from June to December 2021. Sampling locations included 12 rural municipalities, a Tribal housing community and casino, a public university, three municipalities that also contained a prison, and a small island with heavy tourist traffic. Samples were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 N1, N2, and variant gene copies using reverse transcriptase droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (RT-ddPCR). Wastewater N1 and N2 gene copies and clinical case counts were correlated to determine if wastewater results were predictive of clinical cases. Significant correlation between N1 and N2 gene copies and clinical cases was found for all sites (⍴= 0.89 to 0.48). N1 and N2 wastewater results were predictive of clinical case trends within 0-7 days. The Delta variant was detected in the Pickford and St. Ignace samples more than 12-days prior to the first reported Delta clinical cases in their respective counties. Locations with low correlation could be attributed to their high rates of tourism. This is further supported by the high correlation seen in the public university, which is a closed population. Long-term wastewater monitoring over a large, rural geographic area is useful for informing the public of potential outbreaks in the community regardless of asymptomatic cases and access to clinical testing.

Simple methods for early warnings of COVID-19 surges: Lessons learned from 21 months of wastewater and clinical data collection in Detroit, Michigan, United States

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has drawn great attention since the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, not only due to its capability to circumvent the limitations of traditional clinical surveillance, but also due to its potential to forewarn fluctuations of disease incidences in communities. One critical application of WBE is to provide "early warnings" for upcoming fluctuations of disease incidences in communities which traditional clinical testing is incapable to achieve. While intricate models have been developed to determine early warnings based on wastewater surveillance data, there is an exigent need for straightforward, rapid, broadly applicable methods for health departments and partner agencies to implement. Our purpose in this study is to develop and evaluate such early-warning methods and clinical-case peak-detection methods based on WBE data to mount an informed public health response. Throughout an extended wastewater surveillance period across Detroit, MI metropolitan area (the entire study period is from September 2020 to May 2022) we designed eight early-warning methods (three real-time and five post-factum). Additionally, we designed three peak-detection methods based on clinical epidemiological data. We demonstrated the utility of these methods for providing early warnings for COVID-19 incidences, with their counterpart accuracies evaluated by hit rates. "Hit rates" were defined as the number of early warning dates (using wastewater surveillance data) that captured defined peaks (using clinical epidemiological data) divided by the total number of early warning dates. Hit rates demonstrated that the accuracy of both real-time and post-factum methods could reach 100 %. Furthermore, the results indicate that the accuracy was influenced by approaches to defining peaks of disease incidence. The proposed methods herein can assist health departments capitalizing on WBE data to assess trends and implement quick public health responses to future epidemics. Besides, this study elucidated critical factors affecting early warnings based on WBE amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Wastewater-based prediction of COVID-19 cases using a highly sensitive SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection method combined with mathematical modeling

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has the potential to predict COVID-19 cases; however, reliable methods for tracking SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations (CRNA) in wastewater are lacking. In the present study, we developed a highly sensitive method (EPISENS-M) employing adsorption-extraction, followed by one-step RT-Preamp and qPCR. The EPISENS-M allowed SARS-CoV-2 RNA detection from wastewater at 50 % detection rate when newly reported COVID-19 cases exceed 0.69/100,000 inhabitants in a sewer catchment. Using the EPISENS-M, a longitudinal WBE study was conducted between 28 May 2020 and 16 June 2022 in Sapporo City, Japan, revealing a strong correlation (Pearson's r = 0.94) between CRNA and the newly COVID-19 cases reported by intensive clinical surveillance. Based on this dataset, a mathematical model was developed based on viral shedding dynamics to estimate the newly reported cases using CRNA data and recent clinical data prior to sampling day. This developed model succeeded in predicting the cumulative number of newly reported cases after 5 days of sampling day within a factor of √2 and 2 with a precision of 36 % (16/44) and 64 % (28/44), respectively. By applying this model framework, another estimation mode was developed without the recent clinical data, which successfully predicted the number of COVID-19 cases for the succeeding 5 days within a factor of √2 and 2 with a precision of 39 % (17/44) and 66 % (29/44), respectively. These results demonstrated that the EPISENS-M method combined with the mathematical model can be a powerful tool for predicting COVID-19 cases, especially in the absence of intensive clinical surveillance.

Contribution of wastewater-based epidemiology to SARS-CoV-2 screening in Brazil and the United States

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is a valuable tool for investigating the existence, prevalence, and spread of pathogens, such as SARS-CoV-2, in a given population. WBE, proposed as part of the SARS-CoV-2 surveillance strategy for monitoring virus circulation, may complement clinical data and contribute to reducing the spread of the disease through early detection. In developing countries such as Brazil, where clinical data are scarce, information obtained from wastewater monitoring can be crucial for designing public health interventions. In the United States, the country with the largest number of confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases worldwide, WBE programs have begun to be carried out to investigate correlations with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) clinical data and support health agencies in decision-making to prevent the spread of the disease. This systematic review aimed to assess the contribution of WBE to SARS-CoV-2 screening in Brazil and the United States and compare studies conducted in a developed and developing country. Studies in Brazil and the United States showed WBE to be an important epidemiological surveillance strategy in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. WBE approaches are useful for early detection of COVID-19 outbreaks, estimation of clinical cases, and assessment of the effectiveness of vaccination program.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater and comparison to COVID-19 cases in two sewersheds, North Carolina, USA

Wastewater surveillance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may be useful for monitoring population-wide coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections, especially given asymptomatic infections and limitations in diagnostic testing. We aimed to detect SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater and compare viral concentrations to COVID-19 case numbers in the respective counties and sewersheds. Influent 24-hour composite wastewater samples were collected from July to December 2020 from two municipal wastewater treatment plants serving different population sizes in Orange and Chatham Counties in North Carolina. After a concentration step via HA filtration, SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected and quantified by reverse transcription droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (RT-ddPCR) and quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR), targeting the N1 and N2 nucleocapsid genes. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected by RT-ddPCR in 100 % (24/24) and 79 % (19/24) of influent wastewater samples from the larger and smaller plants, respectively. In comparison, viral RNA was detected by RT-qPCR in 41.7 % (10/24) and 8.3 % (2/24) of samples from the larger and smaller plants, respectively. Positivity rates and method agreement further increased for the RT-qPCR assay when samples with positive signals below the limit of detection were counted as positive. The wastewater data from the larger plant generally correlated (⍴ ~0.5, p < 0.05) with, and even anticipated, the trends in reported COVID-19 cases, with a notable spike in measured viral RNA preceding a spike in cases when students returned to a college campus in the Orange County sewershed. Correlations were generally higher when using estimates of sewershed-level case data rather than county-level data. This work supports use of wastewater surveillance for tracking COVID-19 disease trends, especially in identifying spikes in cases. Wastewater-based epidemiology can be a valuable resource for tracking disease trends, allocating resources, and evaluating policy in the fight against current and future pandemics.

Application of neighborhood-scale wastewater-based epidemiology in low COVID-19 incidence situations

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE), an emerging approach for community-wide COVID-19 surveillance, was primarily characterized at large sewersheds such as wastewater treatment plants serving a large population. Although informed public health measures can be better implemented for a small population, WBE for neighborhood-scale sewersheds is less studied and not fully understood. This study applied WBE to seven neighborhood-scale sewersheds (average population of 1471) from January to November 2021. Community testing data showed an average of 0.004 % incidence rate in these sewersheds (97 % of monitoring periods reported two or fewer daily infections). In 92 % of sewage samples, SARS-CoV-2 N gene fragments were below the limit of quantification. We statistically determined 10-2.6 as the threshold of the SARS-CoV-2 N gene concentration normalized to pepper mild mottle virus (N/PMMOV) to alert high COVID-19 incidence rate in the studied sewershed. This threshold of N/PMMOV identified neighborhood-scale outbreaks (COVID-19 incidence rate higher than 0.2 %) with 82 % sensitivity and 51 % specificity. Importantly, neighborhood-scale WBE can discern local outbreaks that would not otherwise be identified by city-scale WBE. Our findings suggest that neighborhood-scale WBE is an effective community-wide disease surveillance tool when COVID-19 incidence is maintained at a low level.

Assessment of Concentration, Recovery, and Normalization of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from Two Wastewater Treatment Plants in Texas and Correlation with COVID-19 Cases in the Community

The purpose of this study was to conduct a correlative assessment of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater with COVID-19 cases and a systematic evaluation of the effect of using different virus concentration methods and recovery and normalization approaches. We measured SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations at two different wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in the Bexar County of Texas from October 2020 to May 2021 (32 weeks) using reverse transcription droplet digital PCR (RT-ddPCR). We evaluated three different adsorption-extraction (AE) based virus concentration methods (acidification, addition of MgCl2, or without any pretreatment) using bovine coronavirus (BCoV) as surrogate virus and observed that the direct AE method showed the highest mean recovery. COVID-19 cases were correlated significantly with SARS-CoV-2 N1 concentrations in Salitrillo (ρ = 0.75, p < 0.001) and Martinez II (ρ = 0.68, p < 0.001) WWTPs, but normalizing to a spiked recovery control (BCoV) or a fecal marker (HF183) reduced correlations for both treatment plants. The results generated in this 32-week monitoring study will enable researchers to prioritize the virus recovery method and subsequent correlation studies for wastewater surveillance.

Implementing wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 on a university campus: Lessons learned

Wastewater surveillance, also known as wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE), has been successfully used to detect SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses in sewage in many locations in the United States and globally. This includes implementation of the surveillance on college and university campuses. A two-phase study was conducted during the 2020-2021 academic year to test the feasibility of a WBE system on campus and to supplement the clinical COVID-19 testing performed for the student, staff, and faculty body. The primary objective during the Fall 2020 semester was to monitor a large portion of the on-campus population and to obtain an understanding of the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The Spring 2021 objective was focused on selected residence halls and groups of residents on campus, as this was more efficient and relevant for an effective follow-up response. Logistical problems and planning oversights initially occurred but were corrected with improved communication and experience. Many lessons were learned, including effective mapping, site planning, communication, personnel organization, and equipment management, and obtained along the way, thereby paving an opportune guide for future planning efforts. PRACTITIONER POINTS: WBE was successful in the detection of many SARS-CoV-2 variants incl. Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, Lambda, Mu, and Omicron. Careful planning and contingencies were essential for a successful implementation of a SARS-CoV-2 monitoring program. A surveillance program may be important for detection and monitoring of other public health relevant targets in wastewater incl. bacteria, viruses, fungi and viruses. Diverse lessons were learned incl. effective mapping, site planning, communication, personnel organization, and equipment management, thereby providing a guide for future planning efforts.

Five-week warning of COVID-19 peaks prior to the Omicron surge in Detroit, Michigan using wastewater surveillance

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is useful in predicting temporal fluctuations of COVID-19 incidence in communities and providing early warnings of pending outbreaks. To investigate the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater and COVID-19 incidence in communities, a 12-month study between September 1, 2020, and August 31, 2021, prior to the Omicron surge, was conducted. 407 untreated wastewater samples were collected from the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) in southeastern Michigan. N1 and N2 genes of SARS-CoV-2 were quantified using RT-ddPCR. Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases for the City of Detroit, and Wayne, Macomb, Oakland counties between September 1, 2020, and October 4, 2021, were collected from a public data source. The total concentrations of N1 and N2 genes ranged from 714.85 to 7145.98 gc/L and 820.47 to 6219.05 gc/L, respectively, which were strongly correlated with the 7-day moving average of total daily COVID-19 cases in the associated areas, after 5 weeks of the viral measurement. The results indicate a potential 5-week lag time of wastewater surveillance preceding COVID-19 incidence for the Detroit metropolitan area. Four statistical models were established to analyze the relationship between SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater and COVID-19 incidence in the study areas. Under a 5-week lag time scenario with both N1 and N2 genes, the autoregression model with seasonal patterns and vector autoregression model were more effective in predicting COVID-19 cases during the study period. To investigate the impact of flow parameters on the correlation, the original N1 and N2 gene concentrations were normalized by wastewater flow parameters. The statistical results indicated the optimum models were consistent for both normalized and non-normalized data. In addition, we discussed parameters that explain the observed lag time. Furthermore, we evaluated the impact of the omicron surge that followed, and the impact of different sampling methods on the estimation of lag time.

Wastewater surveillance in smaller college communities may aid future public health initiatives

To date, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in over 570 million cases and over 6 million deaths worldwide. Predominant clinical testing methods, though invaluable, may create an inaccurate depiction of COVID-19 prevalence due to inadequate access, testing, or most recently under-reporting because of at-home testing. These concerns have created a need for unbiased, community-level surveillance. Wastewater-based epidemiology has been used for previous public health threats, and more recently has been established as a complementary method of SARS-CoV-2 surveillance. Here we describe the application of wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 in two university campus communities located in rural Lincoln Parish, Louisiana. This cost-effective approach is especially well suited to rural areas where limited access to testing may worsen the spread of COVID-19 and quickly exhaust the capacity of local healthcare systems. Our work demonstrates that local universities can leverage scientific resources to advance public health equity in rural areas and enhance their community involvement.

"pySewage": a hybrid approach to predict the number of SARS-CoV-2-infected people from wastewater in Brazil

It is well known that the new coronavirus pandemic has global environmental, public health, and economic implications. In this sense, this study aims to monitor SARS-CoV-2 in the largest wastewater treatment plant of Goiânia, which processes wastewater from more than 700,000 inhabitants, and to correlate the molecular and clinical data collected. Influent and effluent samples were collected at Dr. Helio de Seixo Britto's wastewater treatment plant from January to August 2021. Viral concentration was performed with polyethylene glycol before viral RNA extraction. Real-time qPCR (N1 and N2 gene assays) was performed to detect and quantify the viral RNA present in the samples. The results showed that 43.63% of the samples were positive. There is no significant difference between the detection of primers N1 (mean 3.23 log10 genome copies/L, std 0.23) and N2 (mean 2.95 log10 genome copies/L, std 0.29); also, there is no significant difference between the detection of influent and effluent samples. Our molecular data revealed a positive correlation with clinical data, and infection prevalence was higher than clinical data. In addition, we developed a user-friendly web application to predict the number of infected people based on the detection of viral load present in wastewater samples and may be applied as a public policy strategy for monitoring ongoing outbreaks.

Performance evaluation of virus concentration methods for implementing SARS-CoV-2 wastewater based epidemiology emphasizing quick data turnaround

Wastewater based epidemiology (WBE) has drawn significant attention as an early warning tool to detect and predict the trajectory of COVID-19 cases in a community, in conjunction with public health data. This means of monitoring for outbreaks has been used at municipal wastewater treatment centers to analyze COVID-19 trends in entire communities, as well as by universities and other community living environments to monitor COVID-19 spread in buildings. Sample concentration is crucial, especially when viral abundance in raw wastewater is below the threshold of detection by RT-qPCR analysis. We evaluated the performance of a rapid ultrafiltration-based virus concentration method using InnovaPrep Concentrating Pipette (CP) Select and compared this to the established electronegative membrane filtration (EMF) method. We evaluated sensitivity of SARS-CoV-2 quantification, surrogate virus recovery rate, and sample processing time. Results suggest that the CP Select concentrator is more efficient at concentrating SARS-CoV-2 from wastewater compared to the EMF method. About 25% of samples that tested negative when concentrated with the EMF method produced a positive signal with the CP Select protocol. Increased recovery of the surrogate virus control using the CP Select confirms this observation. We optimized the CP Select protocol by adding AVL lysis buffer and sonication, to increase the recovery of virus. Sonication increased Bovine Coronavirus (BCoV) recovery by 19%, which seems to compensate for viral loss during centrifugation. Filtration time decreases by approximately 30% when using the CP Select protocol, making this an optimal choice for building surveillance applications where quick turnaround time is necessary.