Impact of climate change-induced alterations in peatland vegetation phenology and composition on carbon balance

Global environmental change mediated response of wetland plants: Evidence from past decades

Wetland ecosystems are critically affected by global environmental changes, yet understanding the impact of these changes on wetland plants remains a challenge. This review article employs a comprehensive approach, including bibliographic analysis, utilization of various climate models for historical data retrieval, and extensive literature survey, to investigate the response of wetland plants to environmental shifts over the past decades. The analysis conducted in this study uncovers a multitude of climatic parameters that exhibit an influence on the dynamics of wetland vegetation. Results indicated a significant positive trend in atmospheric CO2 concentration, leading to increased water use efficiency in some plant species, particularly C3 plants. However, C4 plants did not show the same positive response. Nitrous oxide growth rate showed a weaker, less consistent trend than CO2, highlighting the need for further investigation into the complex factors influencing Nitrous oxide emissions from wetlands. Methane growth rate and global mean sea level demonstrated a strong positive linear trend. Ocean pH exhibited a statistically significant downward trend (acidification), while sea surface temperature showed a moderate but statistically significant upward trend. Glacier mass balance revealed a significant negative trend. Although some plants may benefit from increased CO2 initially, but the combined effects of rising sea levels, ocean acidification, and temperature changes pose substantial threats to the overall health and diversity of wetland plant life.

Trend analysis and interactions between surface temperature and vegetation condition: divergent responses across vegetation types

Land surface temperature (LST) trends, influenced by climate change, affect vegetation health and productivity, while vegetation, in turn, alters LST by regulating the surface energy balance. These interactions vary by region and vegetation type. In this study, we aimed to (1) examine long-term trends in vegetation conditions and LST over time, and (2) investigate the interactions between vegetation conditions and LST within distinct vegetation types across the Arasbaran Biosphere Reserve. Sentinel-2 spectral-temporal features and the Random Forest model were employed to classify different vegetation types. Time series data for the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), normalized difference water index (NDWI), and LST were generated using harmonized Landsat data from 1987 to 2023. Various spatial statistical analyses were applied to address the research questions. The results revealed significant spatial and temporal variations in NDVI, NDWI, and LST among vegetation types. The highest volatility in vegetation conditions occurred in dense and sparse forests, while grasslands exhibited the lowest levels of variability. This variability coincided with an overall increasing trend in NDVI, NDWI, and LST, which was most pronounced in dense forests. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation between NDVI, NDWI, and LST was observed, particularly in croplands. These findings collectively indicate a greening trend in the study area, with forests showing the most pronounced increases. The results also underscore the role of forests and dense vegetation in mitigating projected temperature increases. These insights can inform local land management strategies and decision-making.

Greening of a boreal rich fen driven by CO2 fertilisation

Boreal peatlands store vast amounts of soil organic carbon (C) owing to the imbalance between productivity and decay rates. In the recent decades, this carbon stock has been exposed to a warming climate. During the past decade alone, the Arctic has warmed by ∼ 0.75°C which is almost twice the rate of the global average. Although, a wide range of studies have assessed peatlands' C cycling, our understanding of the factors governing source / sink dynamics of peatland C stock under a warming climate remains a critical uncertainty at site, regional, and global scales. Here our focus was on answering two key questions: (1) What drives the interannual variability of carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes at the Bonanza Creek rich fen in Alaska, and (2) What are the internal carbon allocation patterns during the study years? We addressed these knowledge-gaps using an intermediate complexity terrestrial ecosystem model calibrated by a Bayesian model-data fusion framework at a weekly timestep with publicly available eddy covariance, satellite-based earth observation, and in-situ datasets for 2014 to 2020. We found that the greening trend (a relative increase of leaf area index ∼0.12 m2 m-2 by 2020) in the fen ecosystem is forced by a CO2 fertilisation effect which in combination resulted in increased gross primary production (GPP). Relative to 2014, GPP increased by ∼75 gC m-2 year-1 (by 2020; 95% confidence interval (CI): -41.35 gC m-2 year-1 to 213.55 gC m-2 year-1) while heterotrophic respiration stayed constant. Consistent with the observed greening, our analysis indicates that the ecosystem allocated more C to foliage (∼50%) over the structural (A carbon pool consisting of branches, stems and coarse roots; ∼30%) and fine root C pools (∼20%).

Land use land cover change as a casual factor for climate variability and trends in the Bilate Watershed, Ethiopia

Climate change and land use dynamics are critical issues facing many regions worldwide, particularly in developing countries. This study examines the spatiotemporal changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and their impact on climate variability in the Bilate Watershed, Ethiopia, from 1994 to 2024. Utilizing multispectral satellite imagery from Landsat 5, 7, and 8, along with meteorological data from five weather stations, LULC classification was performed using the Random Forest algorithm on the Google Earth Engine platform. To analyze climatic variability and trends, the Mann-Kendall trend test, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Standardized Temperature Index (STI) were employed. The findings indicate a significant decline in forest cover, with an accelerated annual loss of approximately 4681.2 hectares between 2014 and 2024. Concurrently, agricultural land expanded by about 1141 hectares annually, and urban areas grew by 24.3 hectares per year in recent years. Seasonal mean rainfall variation showed significant declines in the upper catchment, with Bega (p = 0.004, Sen's slope =  - 3.819 mm), Belg (p = 0.006, Sen's slope =  - 7.972 mm), and Kiremt (p = 0.005, Sen's slope =  - 7.117 mm), while the lower catchment experienced a notable increase during the Belg season (p = 0.025, Sen's slope = 6.424 mm), highlighting uneven water availability across the watershed. Furthermore, pronounced warming trends were observed in the upper catchment (Bega: p = 0.002, Sen's slope = 0.029; Belg: p = 0.001, Sen's slope = 0.030; Kiremt: p = 0.004, Sen's slope = 0.018), with moderate warming noted in the middle catchment during the Kiremt season (p = 0.020, Sen's slope = 0.016). These LULC changes have significantly impacted climate variability, emphasizing the critical influence of human activities on regional climate dynamics. This study underscores the urgent need for sustainable land management and conservation strategies to mitigate the challenges posed by deforestation, urbanization, and agricultural expansion.

Photosynthetic Responses of Peat Moss (Sphagnum spp.) and Bog Cranberry (Vaccinium oxycoccos L.) to Spring Warming

The rising global temperature makes understanding the impact of warming on plant physiology in critical ecosystems essential, as changes in plant physiology can either help mitigate or intensify climate change. The northern peatlands belong to the most important parts of the global carbon cycle. Therefore, knowledge of the ongoing and future climate change impacts on peatland vegetation photosynthesis is crucial for further refinement of peatland or global carbon cycle and vegetation models. As peat moss (Sphagnum spp.) and bog cranberry (Vaccinium oxycoccos L.) represent some of the most common plant functional groups of peatland vegetation, we examined the impact of experimental warming on the status of their photosynthetic apparatus during the early vegetation season. We also studied the differences in the winter to early spring transition of peat moss and bog cranberry photosynthetic activity. We have shown that peat moss starts photosynthetic activity earlier because it relies on light-dependent energy dissipation through the winter. However, bog cranberry needs a period of warmer temperature to reach full activity due to the sustained, non-regulated, heat dissipation during winter, as suggested by the doubling of photosystem II efficiency and 36% decrease in sustained heat dissipation between the mid-March and beginning of May. The experimental warming further enhanced the performance of photosystem II, indicated by a significant increase in the photosystem II performance index on an absorption basis due to warming. Therefore, our results suggest that bog cranberry can benefit more from early spring warming, as its activity is sped up more compared to peat moss. This will probably result in faster shrub encroachment of the peatlands in the warmer future. The vegetation and carbon models should take into account the results of this research to predict the peatland functions under changing climate conditions.

Universality of ecological memory for local and global net ecosystem exchange, atmospheric CO2, and sea surface temperature

Modeling global net ecosystem exchange is essential to understanding and quantifying the complex interactions between the Earth's terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. Emphasizing the inter-relatedness between the global net ecosystem exchange, global sea surface temperature, and atmospheric CO 2 levels, intuitively suggests that all three systems may exhibit collective environmental memory. Motivated by this, we explicitly identified a collective memory function and showed a similar non-Markovian stochastic behavior for these systems exhibiting superdiffusive behavior in short time intervals. We obtained the values of the memory parameter, μ , and the characteristic frequencies, ν , for global net ecosystem exchange (GNEE) ( μ = 0.94 ± 0.03 , ν = 0.67 ± 0.08 / m o . ), global sea surface temperature (GSST) ( μ = 0.68 ± 0.11 , ν = 0.30 ± 0.18 / m o . ), and atmospheric CO 2 ( μ = 0.78 ± 0.08 , ν = 0.66 ± 0.13 / w k . ). The values of the memory parameter are within the range, 0 < μ < 1 , and thus all three systems are in the superdiffusive regime. We emphasize, further, that these results were consistent with our previous analyses at the ecosystem level (i.e. Great Barrier Reef) suggesting scale invariance for these phenomena. Thus, the observed superdiffusive behavior operating at different scales suggests universality of the collective memory function for these systems.

Detecting Spatial Patterns of Peatland Greenhouse Gas Sinks and Sources with Geospatial Environmental and Remote Sensing Data

Peatlands play a key role in the circulation of the main greenhouse gases (GHG) - methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), and nitrous oxide (N2O). Therefore, detecting the spatial pattern of GHG sinks and sources in peatlands is pivotal for guiding effective climate change mitigation in the land use sector. While geospatial environmental data, which provide detailed spatial information on ecosystems and land use, offer valuable insights into GHG sinks and sources, the potential of directly using remote sensing data from satellites remains largely unexplored. We predicted the spatial distribution of three major GHGs (CH4, CO2, and N2O) sinks and sources across Finland. Utilizing 143 field measurements, we compared the predictive capacity of three different data sets with MaxEnt machine-learning modeling: (1) geospatial environmental data including climate, topography and habitat variables, (2) remote sensing data (Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2), and (3) a combination of both. The combined dataset yielded the highest accuracy with an average test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.845 and AUC stability of 0.928. A slightly lower accuracy was achieved using only geospatial environmental data (test AUC 0.810, stability AUC 0.924). In contrast, using only remote sensing data resulted in reduced predictive accuracy (test AUC 0.763, stability AUC 0.927). Our results suggest that (1) reliable estimates of GHG sinks and sources cannot be produced with remote sensing data only and (2) integrating multiple data sources is recommended to achieve accurate and realistic predictions of GHG spatial patterns.

Biodiversity conservation in the context of climate change: Facing challenges and management strategies

Biodiversity conservation amidst the uncertainty of climate change presents unique challenges that necessitate precise management strategies. The study reported here was aimed at refining understanding of these challenges and to propose specific, actionable management strategies. Employing a quantitative literature analysis, we meticulously examined 1268 research articles from the Web of Science database between 2005 and 2023. Through Cite Spaces and VOS viewer software, we conducted a bibliometric analysis and thematic synthesis to pinpoint emerging trends, key themes, and the geographical distribution of research efforts. Our methodology involved identifying patterns within the data, such as frequency of keywords, co-authorship networks, and citation analysis, to discern the primary focus areas within the field. This approach allowed us to distinguish between research concentration areas, specifically highlighting a predominant interest in Environmental Sciences Ecology (67.59 %) and Biodiversity Conservation (22.63 %). The identification of adaptive management practices and ecosystem services maintenance are central themes in the research from 2005 to 2023. Moreover, challenges such as understanding phenological shifts, invasive species dynamics, and anthropogenic pressures critically impact biodiversity conservation efforts. Our findings underscore the urgent need for precise, data-driven decision-making processes in the face of these challenges. Addressing the gaps identified, our study proposes targeted solutions, including the establishment of germplasm banks for at-risk species, the development of advanced genomic and microclimate models, and scenario analysis to predict and mitigate future conservation challenges. These strategies are aimed at enhancing the resilience of biodiversity against the backdrop of climate change through integrated, evidence-based approaches. By leveraging the compiled and analyzed data, this study offers a foundational framework for future research and practical action in biodiversity conservation strategies, demonstrating a path forward through detailed analysis and specified solutions.

On the distribution and habitat use of the sub-Antarctic fly Hyadesimyia clausa Bigot (Diptera, Tachinidae) according to citizen science

Hyadesimyia clausa Bigot is a morphologically striking tachinid that inhabits the Sub-Antarctic Ecoregion of the Magallanes Region in Chile and Tierra del Fuego province in Argentina. Much of the distributional information about this species is restricted to the Cape Horn islands, which have extreme environmental conditions, but the species' natural history, range limits, and habitat use have never been described or confirmed. Our goals were to describe the distributional limits of this sub-Antarctic fly with the help of citizen science and use this information type to describe this tachinid's habitat use and potential biological interactions with nonvascular and vascular flora. We found that citizen science significantly increased our understanding of the extent of occurrence, expanding the known distributional range by 195 km to the north and 153 km to the west. On the contrary, the values for the area of occupancy were not significant, but the occupancy overlap between different records was very low. We confirmed that H. clausa's habitat uses peatlands and although we have not provided evidence of pollination or movement of spores, we hypothesized, that the walking activity of H. clausa could help move sperm from mosses and pollen from the flowers of vascular plants, so they could act as potential pollinators. Citizen science can reduce and eliminate some scientific knowledge shortfalls and propose new ecological questions that could increase our knowledge of extreme ecosystems.

Prediction of volatility and seasonality vegetation by using the GARCH and Holt-Winters models

Seasonality and volatility of vegetation in the ecosystem are associated with climatic sensitivity, which can have severe consequences for the environment as well as on the social and economic well-being of the nation. Monitoring and forecasting vegetation growth patterns in ecosystems significantly rely on remotely sensed vegetation indices, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). A novel integration of the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and the Holt-Winters (H-W) models was used to simulate the seasonality and volatility of the three different agro-climatic zones in Jharkhand, India: the central north-eastern, eastern, and south-eastern agro-climatic zones. MODIS Terra Vegetation Indices NDVI data MOD13Q1, from 2001 to 2021, was used to create NDVI time series volatility and seasonality modeled by the GARCH and the H-W models, respectively. GARCH-based Exponential GARCH (EGARCH) [1,1] and Standard GARCH (SGARCH) [1,1] models were used to check the volatility of vegetation growth in three different agro-climatic zones of Jharkhand. The SGARCH [1,1] and EGARCH [1,1] models for the western agro-climatic zone experienced the best indicator as it has maximum likelihood and minimal Schwarz-Bayesian criterion and Akaike information criterion. The seasonality results showed that the additive H-W model showed better results in the eastern agro-climatic zone with the optimized values of MAE (16.49), MAPE (0.49), NSE (0.86), RMSE (0.49), and R2 (0.82) followed by the south-eastern and central north-eastern agro-climatic zones. By utilizing the H-W and GARCH models, the finding demonstrates that vegetation orientation and monitoring seasonality can be predicted using NDVI.

Ericoid shrub encroachment shifts aboveground-belowground linkages in three peatlands across Europe and Western Siberia

In northern peatlands, reduction of Sphagnum dominance in favour of vascular vegetation is likely to influence biogeochemical processes. Such vegetation changes occur as the water table lowers and temperatures rise. To test which of these factors has a significant influence on peatland vegetation, we conducted a 3-year manipulative field experiment in Linje mire (northern Poland). We manipulated the peatland water table level (wet, intermediate and dry; on average the depth of the water table was 17.4, 21.2 and 25.3 cm respectively), and we used open-top chambers (OTCs) to create warmer conditions (on average increase of 1.2°C in OTC plots compared to control plots). Peat drying through water table lowering at this local scale had a larger effect than OTC warming treatment per see on Sphagnum mosses and vascular plants. In particular, ericoid shrubs increased with a lower water table level, while Sphagnum decreased. Microclimatic measurements at the plot scale indicated that both water-level and temperature, represented by heating degree days (HDDs), can have significant effects on the vegetation. In a large-scale complementary vegetation gradient survey replicated in three peatlands positioned along a transitional oceanic-continental and temperate-boreal (subarctic) gradient (France-Poland-Western Siberia), an increase in ericoid shrubs was marked by an increase in phenols in peat pore water, resulting from higher phenol concentrations in vascular plant biomass. Our results suggest a shift in functioning from a mineral-N-driven to a fungi-mediated organic-N nutrient acquisition with shrub encroachment. Both ericoid shrub encroachment and higher mean annual temperature in the three sites triggered greater vascular plant biomass and consequently the dominance of decomposers (especially fungi), which led to a feeding community dominated by nematodes. This contributed to lower enzymatic multifunctionality. Our findings illustrate mechanisms by which plants influence ecosystem responses to climate change, through their effect on microbial trophic interactions.

Catchment characteristics control boreal mire nutrient regime and vegetation patterns over ~5000 years of landscape development

Vegetation holds the key to many properties that make natural mires unique, such as surface microtopography, high biodiversity values, effective carbon sequestration and regulation of water and nutrient fluxes across the landscape. Despite this, landscape controls behind mire vegetation patterns have previously been poorly described at large spatial scales, which limits the understanding of basic drivers underpinning mire ecosystem services. We studied catchment controls on mire nutrient regimes and vegetation patterns using a geographically constrained natural mire chronosequence along the isostatically rising coastline in Northern Sweden. By comparing mires of different ages, we can partition vegetation patterns caused by long-term mire succession (<5000 years) and present-day vegetation responses to catchment eco-hydrological settings. We used the remote sensing based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to describe mire vegetation and combined peat physicochemical measures with catchment properties to identify the most important factors that determine mire NDVI. We found strong evidence that mire NDVI depends on nutrient inputs from the catchment area or underlying mineral soil, especially concerning phosphorus and potassium concentrations. Steep mire and catchment slopes, dry conditions and large catchment areas relative to mire areas were associated with higher NDVI. We also found long-term successional patterns, with lower NDVI in older mires. Importantly, the NDVI should be used to describe mire vegetation patterns in open mires if the focus is on surface vegetation, since the canopy cover in tree-covered mires completely dominated the NDVI signal. With our study approach, we can quantitatively describe the connection between landscape properties and mire nutrient regime. Our results confirm that mire vegetation responds to the upslope catchment area, but importantly, also suggest that mire and catchment aging can override the role of catchment influence. This effect was clear across mires of all ages, but was strongest in younger mires.

Water level drawdown makes boreal peatland vegetation more responsive to weather conditions

Climate warming and projected increase in summer droughts puts northern peatlands under pressure by subjecting them to a combination of gradual drying and extreme weather events. The combined effect of those on peatland functions is poorly known. Here, we studied the impact of long-term water level drawdown (WLD) and contrasting weather conditions on leaf phenology and biomass production of ground level vegetation in boreal peatlands. Data were collected during two contrasting growing seasons from a WLD experiment including a rich and a poor fen and an ombrotrophic bog. Results showed that WLD had a strong effect on both leaf area development and biomass production, and these responses differed between peatland types. In the poor fen and the bog, WLD increased plant growth, while in the rich fen, WLD reduced the growth of ground level vegetation. Plant groups differed in their response, as WLD reduced the growth of graminoids, while shrubs and tree seedlings benefited from it. In addition, the vegetation adjusted to the lower WTs, was more responsive to short-term climatic variations. The warmer summer resulted in a greater maximum and earlier peaking of leaf area index, and greater biomass production by vascular plants and Sphagnum mosses at WLD sites. In particular, graminoids benefitted from the warmer conditions. The change towards greater production in the WLD sites in general and during the warmer weather in particular, was related to the observed transition in plant functional type composition towards arboreal vegetation.

Linkages between Sphagnum metabolites and peatland CO2 uptake are sensitive to seasonality in warming trends

Plants produce a wide diversity of metabolites. Yet, our understanding of how shifts in plant metabolites as a response to climate change feedback on ecosystem processes remains scarce. Here, we test to what extent climate warming shifts the seasonality of metabolites produced by Sphagnum mosses, and what are the consequences of these shifts for peatland C uptake. We used a reciprocal transplant experiment along a climate gradient in Europe to simulate climate change. We evaluated the responses of primary and secondary metabolites in five Sphagnum species and related their responses to gross ecosystem productivity (GEP). When transplanted to a warmer climate, Sphagnum species showed consistent responses to warming, with an upregulation of either their primary or secondary metabolite according to seasons. Moreover, these shifts were correlated to changes in GEP, especially in spring and autumn. Our results indicate that the Sphagnum metabolome is very plastic and sensitive to warming. We also show that warming-induced changes in the seasonality of Sphagnum metabolites have consequences on peatland GEP. Our findings demonstrate the capacity for plant metabolic plasticity to impact ecosystem C processes and reveal a further mechanism through which Sphagnum could shape peatland responses to climate change.

Habitat Characteristics and Mineral Nutrition Status of Rubus chamaemorus L. in Latvia

In Latvia, cloudberries are considered a valuable delicacy and have aroused interest in the possibility of commercial cultivation, as currently, they are collected only in the wild. A complex study was carried out to provide insight into the growth conditions of wild cloudberry in Latvia. The knowledge gained would provide a basis for the development of cloudberry cultivation technologies in the hemiboreal zone. Habitat characteristics, composition of surrounding vegetation, and plant mineral nutrition status were investigated in 18 study sites. Overall, the species composition of cloudberry study sites corresponded to two plant community classes: Cl. Vaccinio-Piceetea and Cl. Oxycocco-Sphagnetea. The most common species were Sphagnum magellanicum, Vaccinium myrtillus, and Oxycoccus palustris. The results clearly indicated acidic peat soils with high organic matter content and low degree of decomposition as being most suitable for cloudberry cultivation. High nutrient uptake capacity was found for wild cloudberry growing in nutrient-poor environments, as most of the leaf nutrients corresponded to the optimal levels determined for different cultivated berries. However, balanced fertilization to ensure successful plant vegetative and root growth would be recommended. The first results on wild cloudberry in Latvia indicated that optimization of P, S, B, and Mo should be the main focus.

Alder encroachment alters subsoil organic carbon pool and chemical structure in a boreal peatland of Northeast China

Boreal peatlands have been experiencing increased abundances of symbiotic dinitrogen-fixing woody plants (mainly alder species). However, how alder encroachment alters soil organic carbon (C) pool and stability is unclear. To examine the effects of alder encroachment on soil organic C, we measured soil organic C pool, phenol oxidase (POX) activity, organic C mineralization rate, and organic C chemical structure (alkyl C, O-alkyl C, aromatic C, and carbonyl C) using solid-state ¹³C nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy in the 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm, and 20-40 cm depths in the Alnus sibirica islands and adjacent open peatlands in the north of Da'xingan Mountain, Northeast China. A. sibirica islands had 28 %, 25 %, and 30 % greater POX activity and 36 %, 31 %, and 100 % higher organic C mineralization than open peatlands in the 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm, and 20-40 cm soil depths, respectively. Despite no significant changes in the 0-10 cm and 10-20 cm depths, alder encroachment reduced soil organic C pool in the 20-40 cm depth. Soil organic C pool in the 0-40 cm depth was lower in A. sibirica islands (298 Mg ha^-1) than in the open peatlands (315 Mg ha^-1). Moreover, alder encroachment increased alkyl (7 %) and carbonyl (57 %) C fractions but reduced O-alkyl C fraction (16 %) in the 20-40 cm depth, resulting in increased aliphaticity and recalcitrance indices. These findings suggest that alder encroachment will reduce soil organic C accumulation by accelerating microbial decomposition, and highlight that increased biochemical stabilization would attenuate soil organic C loss after alder expansion in boreal peatlands. Our results will help assess and project future C budgets in boreal peatlands.

Exploring the relative contribution of flood regimes and climatic factors to Carex phenology in a Yangtze River-connected floodplain wetland

Hydrological regimes can combine with climatic factors to affect plant phenology; however, few studies have attempted to quantify their complex influences on plant phenology in floodplain wetlands. We obtained phenological information on Carex vegetation through MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data during 2001-2020, and monthly field investigation during 2011-2020. We then explored how these data were correlated with climatic factors and flood regimes in a Yangtze River-connected floodplain wetland (Dongting Lake, China). Our results showed that warmer temperature tended to advance the start of the pre-flooding growing season (SOS1), with a relative contribution of 76.1 %. Flood rising time strongly contributed to controlling the end of the pre-flooding growing season. Flood recession time and inundation duration were dominant factors determining the start of the post-flooding growing season (SOS2). Earlier flood recession time and shortened inundation duration tended to advance the SOS2. Shortened inundation duration, earlier flood recession time, and lower solar radiation tended to advance the end of the post-flooding growing season. The phenology of Carex distributed at high-elevation areas was more affected by hydrology than that of Carex distributed at low-elevation areas. Thus, climatic factors strongly affect the phenology of Carex during the pre-flooding growing season, whereas flood regimes play a dominant role in determining the phenology in the post-flooding growing season. The different responses of Carex phenology to climatic and flooding factors may provide insights for the conservation and management of floodplain wetlands in Yangtze River because Carex are primary food source and habitat for herbivorous waterfowls.

Will climate change cause the global peatland to expand or contract? Evidence from the habitat shift pattern of Sphagnum mosses

Peatlands play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. Sphagnum mosses (peat mosses) are considered to be the peatland ecosystem engineers and contribute to the carbon accumulation in the peatland ecosystems. As cold-adapted species, the dominance of Sphagnum mosses in peatlands will be threatened by climate warming. The response of Sphagnum mosses to climate change is closely related to the future trajectory of carbon fluxes in peatlands. However, the impact of climate change on the habitat suitability of Sphagnum mosses on a global scale is poorly understood. To predict the potential impact of climate change on the global distribution of Sphagnum mosses, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential geographic distribution of six Sphagnum species that dominate peatlands in the future (2050 and 2070) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The results show that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the driest month, and topsoil calcium carbonate are the main factors affecting the habitat availability of Sphagnum mosses. As the climate warms, Sphagnum mosses tend to migrate northward. The suitable habitat and abundance of Sphagnum mosses increase extensively in the high-latitude boreal peatland (north of 50°N) and decrease on a large scale beyond the high-latitude boreal peatland. The southern edge of boreal peatlands would experience the greatest decline in the suitable habitat and richness of Sphagnum mosses with the temperature rising and would be a risk area for the transition from carbon sink to carbon source. The spatial-temporal pattern changes of Sphagnum mosses simulated in this study provide a reference for the development of management and conservation strategies for Sphagnum bogs.

Can sustainable development policy reduce carbon emissions? Empirical evidence from resource-based cities in China

Resource-based cities (RBCs) have made outstanding contributions to China's social and economic development over recent decades. Nevertheless, with the worsening climate change and the exhausted resources, how to curb carbon emissions of RBCs to deliver their low-carbon transformation is becoming a problem plaguing the world. To facilitate the low-carbon transformation of RBCs, the Chinese government has formulated many policies, including the Sustainable Development Policy of National Resource-based Cities, 2013-2020 (SDPRC). However, the implementation of SDPRC has not yielded a clear environmental influence. Therefore, this study employs the Propensity Score Matching-Difference in Difference to investigate this influence based on the panel data of 285 prefecture-level cities from 2006 to 2017 while exploring the related heterogeneity and impact mechanisms. It is found that: (1) the implementation of SDPRC has significantly reduced carbon emissions and intensities of RBCs, with this effect becoming more conspicuous with the advancement of the policy. A robust test also verifies these findings. (2) Results from the heterogeneity test demonstrate that the implementation of SDPRC has imposed a suppressive effect on CO₂ emissions in eastern, central, and western Chinese regions, especially pronounced in the latter two regions. Except for the growing cities, which are not significantly affected by the policy, the other three types of cities have seen a catalytic effect on CO₂ emission reduction from the implementation of the policy, with the most significant impact observed in the declining cities. (3) Analyses of related mechanisms reveal that thanks to the implementation of SDPRC, RBCs suppress CO₂ emissions mainly by optimizing their industrial structures and relieving their energy intensities. Finally, some policy recommendations are proposed based on the findings of this study to facilitate the low-carbon transformation of RBCs.