Global change ecology

Effects of seasonal temperature regimes: Does Cyprinus carpio act as a health hazard during the construction of Suki Kinari hydropower project on Kunhar River in Pakistan?

The main purpose of the current study was to assess the levels of trace elements (iron, lead, zinc, copper, and manganese) in both water and fish muscles of common carp (Cyprinus carpio) in the Kunhar River during the development of the Suki Kinari hydropower project (SKHPP). Additionally, the aim was to shed light on the potential health hazards associated with the consumption of fish by residents. Surface water and fish (muscle and liver) from ten specific sampling locations in the Mansehra district (affected by an SKHPP) along the river were examined to determine the levels of trace elements. The findings divulged that the water at all locations exhibited concentration levels of iron (Fe), lead (Pb), and manganese (Mn) that surpassed the benchmarks established by the World Health Organization in 2011. Conversely, the concentration levels of copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) fell beneath the stipulated standards. Moreover, the concentrations of Mn, Zn, and Pb were found to be excessively high. The findings presented in the present study offer a comprehensive comprehension of the spatial and distribution characteristics of trace elements in both water and fish species along the Kunhar River, taking into consideration the impact of the SKHPP. Additionally, our data emphasize the potential health hazards that may arise from the prolonged consumption of fish by the local population.

Global change ecology: Science to heal a damaged planet

Humanity has drastically altered the biophysical systems that sustain life on Earth. We summarize progress and chart future directions in the emerging field of global change ecology, which studies interactions between organisms and their changing environment.

Combined effects of heatwaves and micropollutants on freshwater ecosystems: Towards an integrated assessment of extreme events in multiple stressors research

Freshwater ecosystems are strongly influenced by weather extremes such as heatwaves (HWs), which are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude in the future. In addition to these climate extremes, the freshwater realm is impacted by the exposure to various classes of chemicals emitted by anthropogenic activities. Currently, there is limited knowledge on how the combined exposure to HWs and chemicals affects the structure and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Here, we review the available literature describing the single and combined effects of HWs and chemicals on different levels of biological organization, to obtain a holistic view of their potential interactive effects. We only found a few studies (13 out of the 61 studies included in this review) that investigated the biological effects of HWs in combination with chemical pollution. The reported interactive effects of HWs and chemicals varied largely not only within the different trophic levels but also depending on the studied endpoints for populations or individuals. Hence, owing also to the little number of studies available, no consistent interactive effects could be highlighted at any level of biological organization. Moreover, we found an imbalance towards single species and population experiments, with only five studies using a multitrophic approach. This results in a knowledge gap for relevant community and ecosystem level endpoints, which prevents the exploration of important indirect effects that can compromise food web stability. Moreover, this knowledge gap impairs the validity of chemical risk assessments and our ability to protect ecosystems. Finally, we highlight the urgency of integrating extreme events into multiple stressors studies and provide specific recommendations to guide further experimental research in this regard.

Biofilms and Coronavirus Reservoirs: a Perspective Review

Bats are a key reservoir of coronaviruses (CoVs), including the agent of the severe acute respiratory syndrome, SARS-CoV-2, responsible for the recent deadly viral pneumonia pandemic. However, understanding how bats can harbor several microorganisms without developing illnesses is still a matter under discussion. Viruses and other pathogens are often studied as stand-alone entities, despite that, in nature, they mostly live in multispecies associations called biofilms-both externally and within the host. Microorganisms in biofilms are enclosed by an extracellular matrix that confers protection and improves survival. Previous studies have shown that viruses can secondarily colonize preexisting biofilms, and viral biofilms have also been described. In this review, we raise the perspective that CoVs can persistently infect bats due to their association with biofilm structures. This phenomenon potentially provides an optimal environment for nonpathogenic and well-adapted viruses to interact with the host, as well as for viral recombination. Biofilms can also enhance virion viability in extracellular environments, such as on fomites and in aquatic sediments, allowing viral persistence and dissemination. Moreover, understanding the biofilm lifestyle of CoVs in reservoirs might contribute to explaining several burning questions as to persistence and transmissibility of highly pathogenic emerging CoVs.

Responses of large mammals to climate change

Most large terrestrial mammals, including the charismatic species so important for ecotourism, do not have the luxury of rapid micro-evolution or sufficient range shifts as strategies for adjusting to climate change. The rate of climate change is too fast for genetic adaptation to occur in mammals with longevities of decades, typical of large mammals, and landscape fragmentation and population by humans too widespread to allow spontaneous range shifts of large mammals, leaving only the expression of latent phenotypic plasticity to counter effects of climate change. The expression of phenotypic plasticity includes anatomical variation within the same species, changes in phenology, and employment of intrinsic physiological and behavioral capacity that can buffer an animal against the effects of climate change. Whether that buffer will be realized is unknown, because little is known about the efficacy of the expression of plasticity, particularly for large mammals. Future research in climate change biology requires measurement of physiological characteristics of many identified free-living individual animals for long periods, probably decades, to allow us to detect whether expression of phenotypic plasticity will be sufficient to cope with climate change.

Controls on soil microbial community stability under climate change

Soil microbial communities are intricately linked to ecosystem functioning because they play important roles in carbon and nitrogen cycling. Still, we know little about how soil microbial communities will be affected by disturbances expected with climate change. This is a significant gap in understanding, as the stability of microbial communities, defined as a community's ability to resist and recover from disturbances, likely has consequences for ecosystem function. Here, we propose a framework for predicting a community's response to climate change, based on specific functional traits present in the community, the relative dominance of r- and K-strategists, and the soil environment. We hypothesize that the relative abundance of r- and K-strategists will inform about a community's resistance and resilience to climate change associated disturbances. We also propose that other factors specific to soils, such as moisture content and the presence of plants, may enhance a community's resilience. For example, recent evidence suggests microbial grazers, resource availability, and plant roots each impact on microbial community stability. We explore these hypotheses by offering three vignettes of published data that we re-analyzed. Our results show that community measures of the relative abundance of r- and K-strategists, as well as environmental properties like resource availability and the abundance and diversity of higher trophic levels, can contribute to explaining the response of microbial community composition to climate change-related disturbances. However, further investigation and experimental validation is necessary to directly test these hypotheses across a wide range of soil ecosystems.

The influence of mean climate trends and climate variance on beaver survival and recruitment dynamics

Ecologists are increasingly aware of the importance of environmental variability in natural systems. Climate change is affecting both the mean and the variability in weather and, in particular, the effect of changes in variability is poorly understood. Organisms are subject to selection imposed by both the mean and the range of environmental variation experienced by their ancestors. Changes in the variability in a critical environmental factor may therefore have consequences for vital rates and population dynamics. Here, we examine ≥90-year trends in different components of climate (precipitation mean and coefficient of variation (CV); temperature mean, seasonal amplitude and residual variance) and consider the effects of these components on survival and recruitment in a population of Eurasian beavers (n = 242) over 13 recent years. Within climatic data, no trends in precipitation were detected, but trends in all components of temperature were observed, with mean and residual variance increasing and seasonal amplitude decreasing over time. A higher survival rate was linked (in order of influence based on Akaike weights) to lower precipitation CV (kits, juveniles and dominant adults), lower residual variance of temperature (dominant adults) and lower mean precipitation (kits and juveniles). No significant effects were found on the survival of nondominant adults, although the sample size for this category was low. Greater recruitment was linked (in order of influence) to higher seasonal amplitude of temperature, lower mean precipitation, lower residual variance in temperature and higher precipitation CV. Both climate means and variance, thus proved significant to population dynamics; although, overall, components describing variance were more influential than those describing mean values. That environmental variation proves significant to a generalist, wide-ranging species, at the slow end of the slow-fast continuum of life histories, has broad implications for population regulation and the evolution of life histories.

Assessing the impact of climate variation on survival in vertebrate populations

The impact of the ongoing rapid climate change on natural systems is a major issue for human societies. An important challenge for ecologists is to identify the climatic factors that drive temporal variation in demographic parameters, and, ultimately, the dynamics of natural populations. The analysis of long-term monitoring data at the individual scale is often the only available approach to estimate reliably demographic parameters of vertebrate populations. We review statistical procedures used in these analyses to study links between climatic factors and survival variation in vertebrate populations. We evaluated the efficiency of various statistical procedures from an analysis of survival in a population of white stork, Ciconia ciconia, a simulation study and a critical review of 78 papers published in the ecological literature. We identified six potential methodological problems: (i) the use of statistical models that are not well-suited to the analysis of long-term monitoring data collected at the individual scale; (ii) low ratios of number of statistical units to number of candidate climatic covariates; (iii) collinearity among candidate climatic covariates; (iv) the use of statistics, to assess statistical support for climatic covariates effects, that deal poorly with unexplained variation in survival; (v) spurious detection of effects due to the co-occurrence of trends in survival and the climatic covariate time series; and (vi) assessment of the magnitude of climatic effects on survival using measures that cannot be compared across case studies. The critical review of the ecological literature revealed that five of these six methodological problems were often poorly tackled. As a consequence we concluded that many of these studies generated hypotheses but only few provided solid evidence for impacts of climatic factors on survival or reliable measures of the magnitude of such impacts. We provide practical advice to solve efficiently most of the methodological problems identified. The only frequent issue that still lacks a straightforward solution was the low ratio of the number of statistical units to the number of candidate climatic covariates. In the perspective of increasing this ratio and therefore of producing more robust analyses of the links between climate and demography, we suggest leads to improve the procedures for designing field protocols and selecting a set of candidate climatic covariates. Finally, we present recent statistical methods with potential interest for assessing the impact of climatic factors on demographic parameters.

Effects of climate change and shifts in forest composition on forest net primary production

Forests are dynamic in both structure and species composition, and these dynamics are strongly influenced by climate. However, the net effects of future tree species composition on net primary production (NPP) are not well understood. The objective of this work was to model the potential range shifts of tree species (DISTRIB Model) and predict their impacts on NPP (PnET-II Model) that will be associated with alterations in species composition. We selected four 200 x 200 km areas in Wisconsin, Maine, Arkansas, and the Ohio-West Virginia area, representing focal areas of potential species range shifts. PnET-II model simulations were carried out assuming that all forests achieved steady state, of which the species compositions were predicted by DISTRIB model with no migration limitation. The total NPP under the current climate ranged from 552 to 908 g C/m(2) per year. The effects of potential species redistributions on NPP were moderate (-12% to +8%) compared with the influence of future climatic changes (-60% to +25%). The direction and magnitude of climate change effects on NPP were largely dependent on the degree of warming and water balance. Thus, the magnitude of future climate change can affect the feedback system between the atmosphere and biosphere.

BACI design reveals the decline of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica induced by anchoring

The key species Posidonia oceanica is the dominant endemic seagrass in the Mediterranean Sea and its meadows are considered as one of the most important and productive ecosystems in coastal waters. Covering the seabed from the surface down to about 40 m, meadows of P. oceanica are often affected by mechanical direct damages caused by boat anchoring and mooring activities. Negative effects of these activities have been shown to be recorded by P. oceanica at two different levels: the individual level (phenology of the plant) and the population level (structure of the meadow). We investigated the effect of an anchoring chain system on the P. oceanica meadow of Prelo cove (NW Mediterranean Sea) at two different depths (shallow, deep) and at three different situations of P. oceanica bottom cover (high, medium, low). Several standardized descriptors of the meadow health, working either at the individual or at the population level, were analysed in order to quantify the impact of the deployment of the chain system. A symmetrical BACI design was adopted to detect the impact, where multiple disturbed sites were contrasted with multiple controls in two distinct times, i.e. right few days after the chain settling (early) and 4 months later the disturbance (late). The anchoring chain system has been shown to strongly affect the meadow in terms of shoot density decline and rhizome baring, especially in the deep portions and where the cover of the meadow was low. All descriptors working at the population level proved effective in detecting the impact of the anchoring system. In contrast, descriptors working at the individual level did not show a consistent response to the impact. Our results pointed out the imperative necessity to proper regulate the boat anchoring and mooring activities on the P. oceanica meadows and the adoption of seagrass friendly mooring technology is thus recommended.

The botanist effect revisited: plant species richness, county area, and human population size in the United States

The "botanist effect" is thought to be the reason for higher plant species richness in areas where botanists are disproportionately present as an artefactual consequence of a more thorough sampling. We examined whether this was the case for U.S. counties. We collated the number of species of vascular plants, human population size, and the area of U.S. counties. Controlling for spatial autocorrelation and county area, plant species richness increased with human population size and density in counties with and without universities and/or botanical gardens, with no significant differences in the relation between the two subsets. This is consistent with previous findings and further evidence of a broad-scale positive correlation between species richness and human population presence, which has important consequences for the experience of nature by inhabitants of densely populated regions. Combined with the many reports of a negative correlation between the two variables at a local scale, the positive relation between plant species richness in U.S. counties and human population presence stresses the need for the conservation of seminatural areas in urbanized ecosystems and for the containment of urban and suburban sprawl.

Ecology for transformation

Ecology has a key role in our understanding of the benefits that humans obtain from ecosystems (i.e. ecosystem services). Ecology can also contribute to developing environmentally sound technologies, markets for ecosystem services and approaches to decision-making that account for the changing relationship between humans and ecosystems. These contributions involve basic ecological research on, for example, the resilience of ecosystem services or relationships of ecosystem change to natural disasters. Much of the necessary work involves interdisciplinary collaboration among ecologists, social scientists and decision makers. As we discuss here, ecology should help formulate positive, plausible visions for relationships of society and ecosystems that can potentially sustain ecosystem services for long periods of time.