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de Bondt D, Naslazi E, Jansen E, Kupets R, McCurdy B, Stogios C, de Kok I, Hontelez J. Validating the predicted impact of HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence, cervical lesions, and cervical cancer: A systematic review of population level data and modelling studies. Gynecol Oncol 2025; 195:134-143. [PMID: 40101607 DOI: 10.1016/j.ygyno.2025.03.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2024] [Revised: 02/27/2025] [Accepted: 03/05/2025] [Indexed: 03/20/2025]
Abstract
BACKGROUND We compared model predictions with independently published primary data from population-based studies on the impact of HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence, cervical cancer and its precursors. METHODS We searched Cochrane Library, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Science for studies concerning high-income countries published between 2005 to June 2, 2023. Relative risk (RR) for HPV-related outcomes comparing the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods were collected from observational and modelling studies. The relationship between vaccination coverage and observed relative reductions was determined using meta-regressions, and we compared model prediction to observations. FINDINGS We identified a total of 5649 potential articles, of which one systematic review, 14 observational studies and 32 modelling studies met our inclusion criteria. A clear relation was found between the RR of HPV diseases related outcomes in the pre- versus post-vaccination era and the vaccination coverage, with 23 out of 28 data points and 19 out of 20 data points showing significant reductions in HPV prevalence and CIN2+ prevalence respectively. Around 67 % (n/N = 12/18) of model predictions were more optimistic on HPV prevalence reductions compared to the 95 % CI of the meta-regression derived from observational studies. For CIN2+ lesions, 48 % (n/N = 31/64) of model predictions for CIN2+ outcomes fell within the 95 % CI. INTERPRETATION Model predictions and observational data agree that HPV vaccination can have a substantial impact on HPV related outcomes on a population level. Despite large heterogeneity in observational data and modelling studies, it is particularly encouraging that model predictions on the impact of HPV vaccination on CIN2+ model lesions align with observational studies. FUNDING Ontario Health (formerly known as Cancer Care Ontario).
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniël de Bondt
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
| | - Emi Naslazi
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Erik Jansen
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Rachel Kupets
- Ontario Health (Cancer Care Ontario), Toronto, ON, USA
| | | | | | - Inge de Kok
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands
| | - Jan Hontelez
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Heidelberg Institute of Global Health, Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany
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Luttjeboer J, Simons J, Westra T, Wilschut J, Boersma C, Postma M, van der Schans J. An Updated Analysis of the Impact of HPV Vaccination Based on Long-term Effectiveness in the Netherlands. Infect Dis Ther 2023; 12:2135-2145. [PMID: 37563438 PMCID: PMC10505117 DOI: 10.1007/s40121-023-00851-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/17/2023] [Accepted: 07/18/2023] [Indexed: 08/12/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) is considered the most effective strategy to protect women from cervical cancer. Three HPV vaccines are currently licensed in Europe and, although they are generally supported by favorable health economic outcomes, current models fall short in predicting vaccination benefits. Here, we aim to re-evaluate the health benefits of HPV vaccination, using updated long-term effectiveness data and emphasizing quality of life losses related to pre-cancer disease and treatment. METHODS We used a static Markov model that compared "only screening" (includes unvaccinated girls) and "vaccination" (assumes 100% vaccination coverage with the bivalent HPV vaccine). A lifetime cohort of 100,000 uninfected 12-year-old girls was included, in which the number of cases with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or higher/3 (CIN2+, CIN3), cervical cancer, and cervical cancer deaths per scenario were determined. Furthermore, the reduction in major excisional procedures, the preterm deliveries averted, and the related gain in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) due to vaccination were estimated. RESULTS The bivalent vaccine showed larger reductions in CIN2+, CIN3, cervical cancer cases, cervical cancer deaths, and major excisional treatments, after including long-term efficacy and effectiveness data, compared to previous data. Moreover, we observed an increased amount of QALYs gained due to prevention of major excisional treatment and the negative side effects related to it. CONCLUSIONS Updated health economic models for HPV vaccination, using updated and long-term effectiveness data and including prevention of treatment-related side effects, demonstrate a substantial additional positive effect on vaccination outcomes. Indeed, extrapolation of the bivalent HPV vaccine's updated long-term effectiveness data against HPV-related cervical diseases shows that the positive effects of vaccination may be more substantial than previously estimated. There is a graphical abstract available for this article.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jos Luttjeboer
- University Medical Center, Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713GZ, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Joost Simons
- University Medical Center, Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713GZ, Groningen, The Netherlands.
- GSK, Wavre, Belgium.
| | | | - Jan Wilschut
- University Medical Center, Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713GZ, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Cornelis Boersma
- Open University, Valkenburgerweg 177, 6419AT, Heerlen, The Netherlands
| | - Maarten Postma
- University Medical Center, Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713GZ, Groningen, The Netherlands
| | - Jurjen van der Schans
- University Medical Center, Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713GZ, Groningen, The Netherlands
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Calabro' GE, Carini E, Tognetto A, Giacchetta I, Bonanno E, Mariani M, Ricciardi W, de Waure C. The Value(s) of Vaccination: Building the Scientific Evidence According to a Value-Based Healthcare Approach. Front Public Health 2022; 10:786662. [PMID: 35359753 PMCID: PMC8963736 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.786662] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/30/2021] [Accepted: 01/31/2022] [Indexed: 02/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Objectives To provide a new value-based immunization approach collating the available scientific evidence on the topic. Methods Four value pillars (personal, allocative, technical, and societal) applied to vaccination field were investigated. A systematic literature review was performed querying three database from December 24th, 2010 to May 27th, 2020. It included studies on vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) that mentioned the term value in any part and which were conducted in advanced economies. An in-depth analysis was performed on studies addressing value as key element. Results Overall, 107 studies were considered. Approximately half of the studies addressed value as a key element but in most of cases (83.3%) only a single pillar was assessed. Furthermore, the majority of papers addressed the technical value by looking only at classical methods for economic assessment of vaccinations whereas very few dealt with societal and allocative pillars. Conclusions Estimating the vaccinations value is very complex, even though their usefulness is certain. The assessment of the whole value of vaccines and vaccinations is still limited to some domains and should encompass the wider impact on economic growth and societies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giovanna Elisa Calabro'
- Section of Hygiene, University Department of Life Sciences and Public Health; Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Rome, Italy
- VIHTALI (Value In Health Technology and Academy for Leadership & Innovation), Spin-Off of Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Rome, Italy
| | - Elettra Carini
- Section of Hygiene, University Department of Life Sciences and Public Health; Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Rome, Italy
| | | | - Irene Giacchetta
- Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy
| | - Ester Bonanno
- Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy
| | - Marco Mariani
- Section of Hygiene, University Department of Life Sciences and Public Health; Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Rome, Italy
| | - Walter Ricciardi
- Section of Hygiene, University Department of Life Sciences and Public Health; Catholic University of the Sacred Heart, Rome, Italy
| | - Chiara de Waure
- Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy
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Leidner AJ, Murthy N, Chesson HW, Biggerstaff M, Stoecker C, Harris AM, Acosta A, Dooling K, Bridges CB. Cost-effectiveness of adult vaccinations: A systematic review. Vaccine 2018; 37:226-234. [PMID: 30527660 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.11.056] [Citation(s) in RCA: 87] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2018] [Revised: 10/29/2018] [Accepted: 11/16/2018] [Indexed: 02/08/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Coverage levels for many recommended adult vaccinations are low. The cost-effectiveness research literature on adult vaccinations has not been synthesized in recent years, which may contribute to low awareness of the value of adult vaccinations and to their under-utilization. We assessed research literature since 1980 to summarize economic evidence for adult vaccinations included on the adult immunization schedule. METHODS We searched PubMed, EMBASE, EconLit, and Cochrane Library from 1980 to 2016 and identified economic evaluation or cost-effectiveness analysis for vaccinations targeting persons aged ≥18 years in the U.S. or Canada. After excluding records based on title and abstract reviews, the remaining publications had a full-text review from two independent reviewers, who extracted economic values that compared vaccination to "no vaccination" scenarios. RESULTS The systematic searches yielded 1688 publications. After removing duplicates, off-topic publications, and publications without a "no vaccination" comparison, 78 publications were included in the final analysis (influenza = 25, pneumococcal = 18, human papillomavirus = 9, herpes zoster = 7, tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis = 9, hepatitis B = 9, and multiple vaccines = 1). Among outcomes assessing age-based vaccinations, the percent indicating cost-savings was 56% for influenza, 31% for pneumococcal, and 23% for tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis vaccinations. Among age-based vaccination outcomes reporting $/QALY, the percent of outcomes indicating a cost per QALY of ≤$100,000 was 100% for influenza, 100% for pneumococcal, 69% for human papillomavirus, 71% for herpes zoster, and 50% for tetanus-diphtheria-pertussis vaccinations. CONCLUSIONS The majority of published studies report favorable cost-effectiveness profiles for adult vaccinations, which supports efforts to improve the implementation of adult vaccination recommendations.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Neil Murthy
- National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, CDC, USA; Epidemic Intelligence Service, CDC, USA
| | - Harrell W Chesson
- National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, CDC, USA
| | | | - Charles Stoecker
- School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University, USA
| | - Aaron M Harris
- National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, CDC, USA
| | - Anna Acosta
- National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, CDC, USA
| | - Kathleen Dooling
- National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, CDC, USA
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Ng SS, Hutubessy R, Chaiyakunapruk N. Systematic review of cost-effectiveness studies of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination: 9-Valent vaccine, gender-neutral and multiple age cohort vaccination. Vaccine 2018; 36:2529-2544. [PMID: 29625764 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.03.024] [Citation(s) in RCA: 53] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/17/2017] [Revised: 01/25/2018] [Accepted: 03/07/2018] [Indexed: 10/17/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The success of human papillomavirus (HPV) national immunization program depends on effective strategies in optimizing the uptake of HPV vaccine. Given the increasing number of economic evaluations, this review was conducted to update the economic evidence on HPV vaccination, by focusing on: (i) 9-valent vaccine compared to bi- or quadrivalent vaccine; (ii) gender-neutral vaccination compared to female only vaccination; and (iii) multiple age cohort immunization compared to single age cohort immunization. METHODS Searches were performed until June 2016 using 4 databases: PubMed; Embase; Cochrane Library; and LILACS. The combined WHO, Drummond and CHEERS checklist were used to evaluate the quality of included studies. RESULTS Thirty-four studies were included in the review and most of them were conducted in high-income countries. The inclusion of adolescent boys in vaccination program was found to be cost-effective if vaccine price and coverage was low. When coverage for female was above 75%, gender-neutral vaccination was less cost-effective than when targeting only girls aged 9-18 years. Current evidence does not show conclusive proof of greater cost-effectiveness of 9-valent vaccine compared to the older HPV vaccines as the price for 9-valent vaccine was still uncertain. Multicohort immunization strategy was cost-effective in the age range 9-14 years but the upper age limit at which vaccination was no longer cost-effective needs to be further investigated. Key influential parameters identified were duration of vaccine protection, vaccine price, coverage, and discounting rates. CONCLUSIONS These findings are expected to support policy-makers in making recommendations for HPV immunization programs on either switching to the 9-valent vaccine or inclusion of adolescent boys' vaccination or extending the age of vaccination.
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Affiliation(s)
- Siok Shen Ng
- School of Pharmacy, Monash University Malaysia, Bandar Sunway, Selangor, Malaysia; Department of Pharmacy, Hospital Melaka, Melaka, Malaysia
| | - Raymond Hutubessy
- World Health Organization, Initiative for Vaccine Research, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Nathorn Chaiyakunapruk
- School of Pharmacy, Monash University Malaysia, Bandar Sunway, Selangor, Malaysia; Department of Pharmacy Practice, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Center of Pharmaceutical Outcomes Research (CPOR), Naresuan University, Phitsanulok, Thailand; School of Pharmacy, University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA; Asian Centre for Evidence Synthesis in Population, Implementation and Clinical Outcomes (PICO), Health and Well-being Cluster, Global Asia in the 21st Century (GA21) Platform, Monash University Malaysia, Bandar Sunway, Selangor, Malaysia.
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Rafferty ERS, Gagnon HL, Farag M, Waldner CL. Economic evaluations of vaccines in Canada: a scoping review. COST EFFECTIVENESS AND RESOURCE ALLOCATION 2017; 15:7. [PMID: 28484344 PMCID: PMC5420143 DOI: 10.1186/s12962-017-0069-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/26/2016] [Accepted: 04/28/2017] [Indexed: 01/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study aims to summarise and describe the evolution of published economic evaluations of vaccines in Canada, thereby outlining the current state of this expanding and meaningful research. METHODS Using Arksey and O'Malley's scoping review framework we assembled relevant research from both academic and grey literature. Following abstract and full-text review we identified 60 articles to be included in the final analysis. RESULTS We found that since 1988 there has been a steady increase in the number of economic evaluations on vaccines in Canada. Many of these studies focus on the more recently licensed vaccines, such as influenza (16.7%), human papillomavirus (15.0%) and pneumococcal disease (15.0%). Since 2010 economic evaluations of vaccines have shown increased adherence to economic evaluation guidelines (OR = 4.6, CI 1.33, 18.7), suggesting there has been improvement in the consistency and transparency of these studies. However, there remains room for improvement, for instance, we found evidence that studies who stated a conflict of interest are more likely to assert the vaccine of interest was cost-effective (OR = 7.4; CI 1.04, 17.8). Furthermore, most reports use static models that do not consider herd immunity, and only a few evaluate vaccines post-implementation (ex-post) and traveller's vaccinations. CONCLUSION Researchers should examine identified research gaps and continue to improve standardization and transparency when reporting to ensure economic evaluations of vaccines best meet the needs of policy-makers, other researchers and the public.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ellen R. S. Rafferty
- School of Public Health, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A2 Canada
| | | | - Marwa Farag
- School of Public Health, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A2 Canada
| | - Cheryl L. Waldner
- School of Public Health, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A2 Canada
- Western College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A2 Canada
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Gervais F, Dunton K, Jiang Y, Largeron N. Systematic review of cost-effectiveness analyses for combinations of prevention strategies against human papillomavirus (HPV) infection: a general trend. BMC Public Health 2017; 17:283. [PMID: 28351348 PMCID: PMC5371248 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-017-4076-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2016] [Accepted: 01/26/2017] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Due to the arrival of multi-valent HPV vaccines, it is more and more important to have a better understanding of the relationship between vaccination and screening programmes. This review aimed to: (1) collect published evidence on the cost-effectiveness profile of different HPV prevention strategies and, in particular, those combining vaccination with changes in screening practices; (2) explore the cost-effectiveness of alternative preventive strategies based on screening and vaccination. METHODS A systematic literature review was conducted in order to identify the relevant studies regarding the cost-effectiveness of prevention strategies against HPV infection. Analysis comparing the modelling approaches between studies was made along with an assessment of the magnitude of impact of several factors on the cost-effectiveness of different screening strategies. RESULTS A total of 18 papers were quantitatively summarised within the narrative. A high degree of heterogeneity was found in terms of how HPV prevention strategies have been assessed in terms of their economic and epidemiological impact, with variation in screening practice and valence of HPV vaccination found to have large implications in terms of cost-effectiveness. CONCLUSIONS This review demonstrated synergies between screening and vaccination. New prevention strategies involving multi-valence vaccination, HPV DNA test screening, delayed commencement and frequency of screening could be implemented in the future. Strategies implemented in the future should be chosen with care, and informed knowledge of the potential impact of all possible prevention strategies. Highlighted in this review is the difficulty in assessing multiple strategies. Appropriate modelling techniques will need to be utilised to assess the most cost-effective strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Frédéric Gervais
- Amaris, The Fitzpatrick Building, 188 York Way, London, N7 9AS, UK
| | - Kyle Dunton
- Amaris, The Fitzpatrick Building, 188 York Way, London, N7 9AS, UK.
| | - Yiling Jiang
- Amaris, The Fitzpatrick Building, 188 York Way, London, N7 9AS, UK
| | - Nathalie Largeron
- Sanofi Pasteur MSD, 162 avenue Jean Jaurès, CS 50712, 69367, Lyon, Cedex 07, France
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Chit A, Lee JKH, Shim M, Nguyen VH, Grootendorst P, Wu J, Van Exan R, Langley JM. Economic evaluation of vaccines in Canada: A systematic review. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2016; 12:1257-64. [PMID: 26890128 PMCID: PMC4963050 DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2015.1137405] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2015] [Revised: 12/14/2015] [Accepted: 12/25/2015] [Indexed: 10/27/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Economic evaluations should form part of the basis for public health decision making on new vaccine programs. While Canada's national immunization advisory committee does not systematically include economic evaluations in immunization decision making, there is increasing interest in adopting them. We therefore sought to examine the extent and quality of economic evaluations of vaccines in Canada. OBJECTIVE We conducted a systematic review of economic evaluations of vaccines in Canada to determine and summarize: comprehensiveness across jurisdictions, studied vaccines, funding sources, study designs, research quality, and changes over time. METHODS Searches in multiple databases were conducted using the terms "vaccine," "economics" and "Canada." Descriptive data from eligible manuscripts was abstracted and three authors independently evaluated manuscript quality using a 7-point Likert-type scale scoring tool based on criteria from the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). RESULTS 42/175 articles met the search criteria. Of these, Canada-wide studies were most common (25/42), while provincial studies largely focused on the three populous provinces of Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia. The most common funding source was industry (17/42), followed by government (7/42). 38 studies used mathematical models estimating expected economic benefit while 4 studies examined post-hoc data on established programs. Studies covered 10 diseases, with 28/42 addressing pediatric vaccines. Many studies considered cost-utility (22/42) and the majority of these studies reported favorable economic results (16/22). The mean quality score was 5.9/7 and was consistent over publication date, funding sources, and disease areas. CONCLUSIONS We observed diverse approaches to evaluate vaccine economics in Canada. Given the increased complexity of economic studies evaluating vaccines and the impact of results on public health practice, Canada needs improved, transparent and consistent processes to review and assess the findings of the economic evaluations of vaccines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ayman Chit
- Sanofi Pasteur, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jason K. H. Lee
- Sanofi Pasteur, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Minsup Shim
- Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | - Van Hai Nguyen
- Health Services and Systems Research Program, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School Singapore, Singapore
| | - Paul Grootendorst
- Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
- Department of Economics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
| | - Jianhong Wu
- Center for Disease Modeling, York Institute for Health Research, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Joanne M. Langley
- Canadian Center for Vaccinology and the Departments of Pediatrics and Community Health and Epidemiology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
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Thommes EW, Ismaila A, Chit A, Meier G, Bauch CT. Cost-effectiveness evaluation of quadrivalent influenza vaccines for seasonal influenza prevention: a dynamic modeling study of Canada and the United Kingdom. BMC Infect Dis 2015; 15:465. [PMID: 26503131 PMCID: PMC4623926 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-015-1193-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 27] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2015] [Accepted: 10/07/2015] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The adoption of quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) to replace trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) in immunization programs is growing worldwide, thus helping to address the problem of influenza B lineage mismatch. However, the price per dose of QIV is higher than that of TIV. In such circumstances, cost-effectiveness analyses provide important and relevant information to inform national health recommendations and implementation decisions. This analysis assessed potential vaccine impacts and cost-effectiveness of a country-wide switch from TIV to QIV, in Canada and the UK, from a third-party payer perspective. Methods An age-stratified, dynamic four-strain transmission model which incorporates strain interaction, transmission-rate seasonality and age-specific mixing in the population was used. Model input data were obtained from published literature and online databases. In Canada, we evaluated a switch from TIV to QIV in the entire population. For the UK, we considered two strategies: Children aged 2–17 years who receive the live-attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV) switch to the quadrivalent formulation (QLAIV), while individuals aged > 18 years switch from TIV to QIV. Two different vaccination uptake scenarios in children (UK1 and UK2, which differ in the vaccine uptake level) were considered. Health and cost outcomes for both vaccination strategies, and the cost-effectiveness of switching from TIV/LAIV to QIV/QLAIV, were estimated from the payer perspective. For Canada and the UK, cost and outcomes were discounted using 5 % and 3.5 % per year, respectively. Results Overall, in an average influenza season, our model predicts that a nationwide switch from TIV to QIV would prevent 4.6 % influenza cases, 4.9 % general practitioner (GP) visits, 5.7 % each of emergency room (ER) visits and hospitalizations, and 6.8 % deaths in Canada. In the UK (UK1/UK2), implementing QIV would prevent 1.4 %/1.8 % of influenza cases, 1.6 %/2.0 % each of GP and ER visits, 1.5 %/1.9 % of hospitalizations and 4.3 %/4.9 % of deaths. Discounted incremental cost-utility ratios of $7,961 and £7,989/£7,234 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained are estimated for Canada and the UK (UK1/UK2), both of which are well within their respective cost-effectiveness threshold values. Conclusions Switching from TIV to QIV is expected to be a cost-effective strategy to further reduce the burden of influenza in both countries. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-015-1193-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Edward W Thommes
- GSK, 7333 Mississauga Road, Mississauga, ON, L5N 6L4, Canada. .,Department of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
| | - Afisi Ismaila
- GSK, 7333 Mississauga Road, Mississauga, ON, L5N 6L4, Canada. .,Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.
| | - Ayman Chit
- Sanofi Pasteur, Toronto, Ontario, Canada. .,Leslie Dan Faculty of Pharmacy, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
| | | | - Christopher T Bauch
- Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
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Mendes D, Bains I, Vanni T, Jit M. Systematic review of model-based cervical screening evaluations. BMC Cancer 2015; 15:334. [PMID: 25924871 PMCID: PMC4419493 DOI: 10.1186/s12885-015-1332-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 32] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2014] [Accepted: 04/22/2015] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Optimising population-based cervical screening policies is becoming more complex due to the expanding range of screening technologies available and the interplay with vaccine-induced changes in epidemiology. Mathematical models are increasingly being applied to assess the impact of cervical cancer screening strategies. METHODS We systematically reviewed MEDLINE®, Embase, Web of Science®, EconLit, Health Economic Evaluation Database, and The Cochrane Library databases in order to identify the mathematical models of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer progression used to assess the effectiveness and/or cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening strategies. Key model features and conclusions relevant to decision-making were extracted. RESULTS We found 153 articles meeting our eligibility criteria published up to May 2013. Most studies (72/153) evaluated the introduction of a new screening technology, with particular focus on the comparison of HPV DNA testing and cytology (n = 58). Twenty-eight in forty of these analyses supported HPV DNA primary screening implementation. A few studies analysed more recent technologies - rapid HPV DNA testing (n = 3), HPV DNA self-sampling (n = 4), and genotyping (n = 1) - and were also supportive of their introduction. However, no study was found on emerging molecular markers and their potential utility in future screening programmes. Most evaluations (113/153) were based on models simulating aggregate groups of women at risk of cervical cancer over time without accounting for HPV infection transmission. Calibration to country-specific outcome data is becoming more common, but has not yet become standard practice. CONCLUSIONS Models of cervical screening are increasingly used, and allow extrapolation of trial data to project the population-level health and economic impact of different screening policy. However, post-vaccination analyses have rarely incorporated transmission dynamics. Model calibration to country-specific data is increasingly common in recent studies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Diana Mendes
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, Bloomsbury, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
- Modelling and Economics Unit, Public Health England, 61 Colindale Avenue, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
| | - Iren Bains
- Modelling and Economics Unit, Public Health England, 61 Colindale Avenue, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
| | - Tazio Vanni
- Brazilian Ministry of Health, Esplanada dos Ministérios Bloco G, Brasília-DF, CEP: 70058-900, Brasil.
| | - Mark Jit
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, Bloomsbury, London, WC1E 7HT, UK.
- Modelling and Economics Unit, Public Health England, 61 Colindale Avenue, London, NW9 5EQ, UK.
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Examining Ontario's universal influenza immunization program with a multi-strain dynamic model. Vaccine 2014; 32:5098-117. [DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.06.005] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2014] [Revised: 04/13/2014] [Accepted: 06/02/2014] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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Franceschi S, Baussano I. Naturally acquired immunity against human papillomavirus (HPV): why it matters in the HPV vaccine era. J Infect Dis 2014; 210:507-9. [PMID: 24610878 DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jiu143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 16] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
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13
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Orlando G, Fasolo M, Mazza F, Ricci E, Esposito S, Frati E, Zuccotti GV, Cetin I, Gramegna M, Rizzardini G, Tanzi E. Risk of cervical HPV infection and prevalence of vaccine-type and other high-risk HPV types among sexually active teens and young women (13-26 years) enrolled in the VALHIDATE study. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2014; 10:986-94. [PMID: 24423757 PMCID: PMC4896517 DOI: 10.4161/hv.27682] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022] Open
Abstract
HPV vaccination is expected to reduce the incidence of cervical cancer. The greatest and the earliest health gains will be ensured by high vaccine coverage among all susceptible people. The high costs and the risk of a reduced cost/effectiveness ratio in sexually active girls still represent the main obstacles for a more widespread use of HPV vaccination in many countries. Data on the rate, risk factors, and HPV types in sexually active women could provide information for the evaluation of vaccination policies extended to broader age cohorts. Sexually active women aged 13–26 years enrolled in an Italian cohort study were screened for cervical HPV infections; HPV-DNA positive samples were genotyped by InnoLipa HPV Genotyping Extra or by RFLP genotype analysis. Among the 796 women meeting the inclusion criteria, 10.80% (95% CI 8.65–12.96) were HPV-DNA infected. Age >18 years, lifetime sexual partners >1, and history of STIs were associated to higher risk of HPV infection in the multivariable models adjusted for age, lifetime sexual partners, and time of sexual exposure. The global prevalence of the four HPV vaccine-types was 3.02% (95% CI 1.83–4.20) and the cumulative probability of infection from at least one vaccine-type was 12.82% in 26-years-old women and 0.78% in 18-years-old women. Our data confirm most of the previously reported findings on the risk factors for HPV infections. The low prevalence of the HPV vaccine-types found may be useful for the evaluation of the cost/efficacy and the cost/effectiveness of broader immunization programs beyond the 12-years-old cohort.
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Affiliation(s)
- Giovanna Orlando
- STD Unit; Infectious Diseases I; L Sacco University Hospital; Milan, Italy
| | - Michela Fasolo
- STD Unit; Infectious Diseases I; L Sacco University Hospital; Milan, Italy
| | - Francesca Mazza
- STD Unit; Infectious Diseases I; L Sacco University Hospital; Milan, Italy
| | - Elena Ricci
- Infectious Diseases I; L Sacco University Hospital; Milan, Italy
| | - Susanna Esposito
- Pediatric Clinic I; Department of Pathophysiology and Transplantation; University of Milan; Milan, Italy
| | - Elena Frati
- Department of Biomedical Sciences for Health; University of Milan; Milan, Italy
| | | | - Irene Cetin
- Gynaecology Unit; L Sacco University Hospital; Milan, Italy
| | - Maria Gramegna
- Unità Organizzativa Governo della Prevenzione e Tutela Sanitaria; Direzione Generale Sanità; Regione Lombardia; Milan, Italy
| | | | - Elisabetta Tanzi
- Department of Biomedical Sciences for Health; University of Milan; Milan, Italy
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14
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Vickers DM, Anonychuk AM, De Wals P, Demarteau N, Bauch CT. Evaluation of serogroup C and ACWY meningococcal vaccine programs: projected impact on disease burden according to a stochastic two-strain dynamic model. Vaccine 2013; 33:268-75. [PMID: 24103896 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.09.034] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2013] [Revised: 09/09/2013] [Accepted: 09/18/2013] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Advisory committees in Canada and the United States have updated recommendations for quadrivalent meningococcal conjugate vaccines against serogroups A, C, W135, and Y. Our objective was to evaluate optimally effective meningococcal vaccination policies using a stochastic dynamic model. Canada was used as an example. METHODS Our stochastic dynamic model of Neisseria meningitidis (Nm) transmission in an age-structured population assumed partial cross-immunity among two aggregated serogroup categories: 'AWY' containing A, W135, and Y; and 'Other' containing B, C, and ungroupable types. We compared the impact of monovalent C versus quadrivalent ACWY vaccination on Nm carriage and invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). Our model was parameterized with Canadian epidemiological and demographic data and employed probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS Routine infant immunization at 12 months and boosting at 15 years with a quadrivalent vaccine is projected to have the largest impact on total IMD incidence: a 74% reduction over 40 years. Routine infant immunization with a monovalent vaccine at 12 months only has much less impact and also generates strain replacement appearing after approximately ten years of continuous use. CONCLUSIONS Immunizing infants at 12 months and boosting adolescents at 15 years with an ACWY vaccine is predicted to be most effective at reducing IMD incidence.
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Affiliation(s)
- David M Vickers
- Computational Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon S7N 5C9, Canada; Pythagoras Consulting, Guelph N1H 2L3, Canada
| | - Andrea M Anonychuk
- GlaxoSmithKline Vaccines, 1300 Wavre, Belgium; Abbott Laboratories, Diagnostics Division, Abbott Park, IL 60064, USA
| | - Philippe De Wals
- Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, Laval University, Quebec City G1V 0A6, Canada
| | | | - Chris T Bauch
- Pythagoras Consulting, Guelph N1H 2L3, Canada; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph N1G 2W1, Canada; Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Waterloo, Waterloo N2L 3G1, Canada.
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15
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Shafer LA, Jeffrey I, Elias B, Shearer B, Canfell K, Kliewer E. Quantifying the impact of dissimilar HPV vaccination uptake among Manitoban school girls by ethnicity using a transmission dynamic model. Vaccine 2013; 31:4848-55. [PMID: 23933332 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.07.073] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/19/2013] [Revised: 07/20/2013] [Accepted: 07/30/2013] [Indexed: 11/16/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Gardasil, a human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine, began among grade 6 girls in Manitoba, Canada in 2008. In Manitoba, there is evidence that First Nations, Métis, and Inuit women (FNMI) have higher HPV prevalence, lower invasive cervical cancer (ICC) screening, and higher ICC incidence than all other Manitoban (AOM) women. We developed a mathematical model to assess the plausible impact of unequal vaccination coverage among school girls on future cervical cancer incidence. METHODS We fit model estimated HPV prevalence and ICC incidence to corresponding empirical estimates. We used the fitted model to evaluate the impact of varying levels of vaccination uptake by FNMI status on future ICC incidence, assuming cervical screening uptake among FNMI and AOM women remained unchanged. RESULTS Depending on vaccination coverage, estimated ICC incidence by 2059 ranged from 15% to 68% lower than if there were no vaccination. The level of cross-ethnic sexual mixing influenced the impact that vaccination rates among FNMI has on ICC incidence among AOM, and vice versa. The same level of AOM vaccination could result in ICC incidence that differs by up to 10%, depending on the level of FNMI vaccination. Similarly, the same level of FNMI vaccination could result in ICC incidence that differs by almost 40%, depending on the level of AOM vaccination. CONCLUSIONS If we are unable to equalize vaccination uptake among all school girls, policy makers should prepare for higher levels of cervical cancer than would occur under equal vaccination uptake.
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Affiliation(s)
- Leigh Anne Shafer
- Department of Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada.
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16
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Brisson M, Laprise JF, Drolet M, Van de Velde N, Franco EL, Kliewer EV, Ogilvie G, Deeks SL, Boily MC. Comparative cost-effectiveness of the quadrivalent and bivalent human papillomavirus vaccines: a transmission-dynamic modeling study. Vaccine 2013; 31:3863-71. [PMID: 23830974 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2013.06.064] [Citation(s) in RCA: 39] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2013] [Revised: 06/05/2013] [Accepted: 06/19/2013] [Indexed: 10/26/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The quadrivalent and bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are now licensed in several countries. We compared the cost-effectiveness of the HPV vaccines to provide evidence for policy decisions. METHODS We developed HPV-ADVISE, a multi-type individual-based transmission-dynamic model of HPV infection and disease (anogenital warts, and cervical, anogenital and oropharyngeal cancers). We calibrated the model to sexual behavior and epidemiologic data from Canada, and estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost and costs ($CAN 2010) from the literature. Vaccine-type efficacy was based on a systematic literature review. The analysis was performed from the healthcare provider perspective, and costs and benefits were discounted at 3%. Predictions are presented using the median [10th;90th percentiles] of simulations. RESULTS Under base-case assumptions (vaccinating 10-year-old girls, 80% coverage, $95/dose), using the quadrivalent and bivalent vaccines is estimated to cost $15,528 [12,056;19,140] and $20,182 [15,531;25,240] per QALY-gained, respectively. At equal price, the quadrivalent vaccine is more cost-effective than bivalent under all scenarios investigated, except when assuming longer duration of protection for the bivalent and minimal anogenital warts burden. Under base-case assumptions, the maximum additional cost per dose for the quadrivalent vaccine to remain more cost-effective than the bivalent is $32 [17;46] (using a $40,000/QALY-gained threshold). Results were most sensitive to discounting, time-horizon, differences in durations of protection and anogenital warts burden. CONCLUSIONS Vaccinating pre-adolescent girls against HPV is predicted to be highly cost-effective. If equally priced, the quadrivalent is the most economically desirable vaccine. However, ultimately, the most cost-effective HPV vaccine will be determined by their relative price.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marc Brisson
- SP-POS, Centre de recherche du CHU de Québec, Québec, Canada.
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17
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Thompson A. Human Papilloma Virus, Vaccination and Social Justice: An Analysis of a Canadian School-Based Vaccine Program. Public Health Ethics 2013. [DOI: 10.1093/phe/pht010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/22/2022] Open
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Kawai K, de Araujo GTB, Fonseca M, Pillsbury M, Singhal PK. Estimated health and economic impact of quadrivalent HPV (types 6/11/16/18) vaccination in Brazil using a transmission dynamic model. BMC Infect Dis 2012; 12:250. [PMID: 23046886 PMCID: PMC3517904 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2334-12-250] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/05/2011] [Accepted: 10/01/2012] [Indexed: 02/08/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Cervical cancer is the second most common cancer among women in Brazil. We examined the health and economic impacts of quadrivalent HPV vaccination in Brazil. METHODS We adapted a previously developed transmission dynamic model to estimate the effectiveness of HPV vaccination on cervical cancer, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2 and 3 (CIN2/3), CIN1, and genital warts. We evaluated following vaccination strategies: routine vaccination of 12-year-old girls and routine vaccination in combination with a catch-up vaccination of 12 to 26-year-old women. RESULTS The model projected that the vaccination would reduce the incidence rates of HPV 6/11/16/18-related cervical cancer, CIN2/3, CIN1, and female genital warts by 94% to 98% at year 100. Routine vaccination in combination with a catch-up vaccination could prevent approximately 163,000 cases of cervical cancer, 48,000 deaths from cervical cancer, 2.3 million cases of CIN2/3, and 11.4 million genital warts in the next 50 years. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for female vaccination strategies ranged from R$350 to R$720 (US$219 to US$450) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrates that quadrivalent HPV female vaccination can be a cost-effective public health intervention that can substantially reduce the burden of cervical diseases and genital warts in Brazil.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kosuke Kawai
- Temple University, 3307 N, Broad Street, Philadelphia, PA 19140, USA.
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Ashton T, Sopina E. Value for money from HPV vaccination and cervical screening. Hum Vaccin Immunother 2012; 8:828-30. [PMID: 22739689 DOI: 10.4161/hv.19807] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination programs raises some important questions about the future organization of cervical screening programs. Two studies--from NZ and Canada--have addressed the question of what combination of vaccination and screening strategies might be most cost-effective in preventing cervical cancer. Both studies indicate that some modifications to existing screening programs may be desirable as immunized females enter these programs. Variables in HPV vaccination that are likely to be particularly important for determining the future cost-effectiveness of cervical screening programs include: vaccine uptake rate, compliance with full doses, timely completion of doses, duration of protection, male vaccination and HPV infection rate. If value for money is to be achieved, it is important that the appropriate data are collected so that policy makers can consider the combined impact of these two programs on costs and health outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Toni Ashton
- School of Population Health, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
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