Shingles in Alberta: before and after publicly funded varicella vaccination

Research Note: A Novel Sullivan Method Projection Framework With Application to Long COVID

Originally developed for estimating healthy life expectancy, the traditional Sullivan method continues to be a popular tool for obtaining point-in-time estimates of the population impacts of a wide range of health and social conditions. However, except in rare data-intensive cases, the method is subject to stringent stationarity assumptions, which often do not align with real-world conditions and restrict its resulting estimates and applications. In this research note, we present an expansion of the original method to apply within a population projection framework. The Sullivan method projection framework produces estimates that offer new insights about future trends in population health and social arrangements under various demographic and epidemiologic scenarios, such as the percentage of life years that population members can expect to spend with a condition of interest in a time interval under different assumptions. We demonstrate the utility of this framework using the case of long COVID, illustrating both its operation and potential to reveal insights about emergent population health challenges under various theoretically informed scenarios. The traditional Sullivan method provides a summary measure of the present, while its incorporation into a projection framework enables preparation for a variety of potential futures.

Herpes Zoster Recurrence: A Narrative Review of the Literature

INTRODUCTION

Herpes zoster (HZ; shingles) is a painful, cutaneous disease caused by reactivation of the varicella zoster virus, which causes varicella (chickenpox) typically during childhood. The considerable healthcare burden of HZ is relatively well documented, with approximately one in three individuals experiencing at least one episode during their lifetime, debilitating symptoms including neuropathic pain, and complications such as post-herpetic neuralgia, vision loss, and rarely, stroke, and increased severity in immunocompromised individuals. However, we are not aware of a comprehensive review of literature specifically examining the burden of HZ recurrence.

METHODS

We conducted a PubMed search (1 January 2003-2 February 2023) to assess available literature on the incidence, risk factors, and clinical features of HZ recurrence.

RESULTS

The incidence of HZ recurrence reported by the studies identified was wide ranging. Studies in general populations of immunocompetent or immunocompetent/immunosuppressed (mixed) populations with an initial HZ episode estimate that approximately 1.2-9.6% of individuals may experience HZ recurrence, with an incidence rate of 1.7-16.6 cases per 1000 person-years. HZ recurrence was reported in 0.0-18.2% of immunocompromised individuals with HZ, with an incidence rate of 17.0-55 cases per 1000 person-years. Incidence rates varied according to study design, follow-up, and study populations. Recognized risk factors for HZ recurrence include immunocompromised status, female sex, family history, and comorbidities such as diabetes. Other factors that may predispose individuals to recurrence include long-lasting pain after the initial HZ episode and the presence of herpes zoster ophthalmicus.

DISCUSSION

Our review underlines that following an initial HZ episode, individuals remain at risk of HZ recurrence, adding to the disease burden in a population. As HZ is preventable by vaccination, national HZ vaccination recommendations should include the need for and timing of vaccination in both immunocompetent and immunocompromised individuals who have a history of HZ.

The necessity for popularizing varicella-zoster virus vaccine programs worldwide: An age-period-cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

Varicella-zoster virus (VZV) causes varicella and herpes zoster (VHZ), which is endemic worldwide. Although infection with VZV represents a considerable health threat, the global, regional and national burden of VZV infection, especially the probable relationship between VZV vaccines and the epidemiology of VZV infection, is poorly known. We sought to estimate the global spatial patterns and temporal trends of VHZ burden in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Numbers and age-standardized rates (ASR) of VHZ incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were estimated using data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2019. Spatiotemporal trends in ASR were evaluated by estimated annual percentage change (EAPC).

RESULTS

Worldwide, in 2019, there were approximately 84.0 million incidence and 0.9 million DALYs due to VHZ. The corresponding ASIR (age-standardized incidence rate) and ASDR (age-standardized DALY rate) drastically decreased in children (aged <20 years old), while the ASIR and ASDR of VHZ significantly increased in middle- and old-aged adults (aged >50 years old), with highest ASIR and ASDR in the High-income Asia Pacific and Western Sub-Saharan Africa, respectively. From 1990-2019, the corresponding EAPC in ASIR were 0.03 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 0.02-0.04). Whereas the global EAPC in ASDR decreased in all regions (-1.59, 95% UI: -1.64 to -1.55), expect for Australasia (0.46, [0.05, 0.88]). Notably, in 2019, age-specific rates of VHZ DALYs presented a rapid growth trend after 70 years old.

CONCLUSION

The spatiotemporal trends of VHZ were heterogeneous across countries from 1990 to 2019. The spatiotemporal trend in ASIR is highest in the High sociodemographic index (SDI) region, however the EAPC in ASDR is lowest, in part probably due to VHZ vaccination. Therefore, reducing morbidity and burden strategies such as vaccines programs for the prevention of VHZ should be promoted in those regions with high growth incidence and/or burden, especially for the population after 70 years old.

Equivalent Cellular and Humoral Immunity to Varicella Zoster Virus in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease and Healthy Older Adults for Whom Immunization Is Recommended

INTRODUCTION

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are at an increased risk of herpes zoster (HZ). HZ is caused by reactivation of the varicella zoster virus (VZV) and is prevented by strong VZV-specific cell-mediated immunity. The aim of our study was to evaluate whether patients with IBD had lower or equivalent protection compared with healthy controls (HCs) at age 50 years and older.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional study at a single academic center and evaluated cellular and humoral immunity to VZV in patients with IBD at age 35-49 years vs HCs aged 50-59 years. All patients with IBD were on stable medication regimens for at least 3 months. VZV-specific cell-mediated immunity was measured via ELISPOT, and humoral immunity was measured via a quantitative VZV antibody enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay assay.

RESULTS

Seventy-seven patients with IBD and 12 HCs were enrolled in the study. There was no significant difference in ELISPOT counts between patients with IBD and HCs (P = 0.54). In addition, there was also no significant difference between ELISPOT counts in immunosuppressed patients with IBD (N = 45) and HCs (P = 0.32). We also found no correlations between ELISPOT counts and age (Spearman rho 0.014; P = 0.90). Patients with IBD had similar IgG VZV antibody levels (median 19 mIU/mL; range 0.5-218) compared with HCs (median 23.5 mIU/mL (range 4-34); P = 0.54).

DISCUSSION

Young patients with IBD have equivalent cellular and humoral immunity to VZV as healthy older adults in whom HZ immunization is recommended.

Effect of universal varicella vaccination and behavioral changes against coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on the incidence of herpes zoster

Background

Since 2014, universal varicella vaccination has reduced the varicella and herpes zoster (HZ) incidence in vaccine recipients and increased the incidence in the child-rearing generation until 2017.

Objective

This study aimed to understand the future epidemiologic trends of HZ after the disappearance of varicella epidemics and during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Methods

The Miyazaki Dermatologist Society has been monitoring and analyzing the incidence of HZ patients after universal vaccination since 1997.

Results

The HZ incidence in Oka varicella vaccine recipients aged 0–4 years decreased with the reduction in chickenpox incidence. The HZ incidence among those aged 5–9 years increased between 2015 and 2017 and decreased thereafter. From 2014–2020, the HZ incidence continued to increase to 36.6%, 51.3%, 70.2%, 56.7%, and 27.3% among those aged 10–19, 20–29, 30–39, 40–49, and 50–59 years, respectively. The HZ incidence in patients aged ≥ 60 years increased by 2.3% annually from 2014 to 2020, corresponding to an annual 2% increase since 1997, and was unaffected by varicella epidemics. COVID-19 infection control measures, lifestyle changes and the resulting stress did not affect the HZ incidence in 2020.

Conclusion

Universal varicella vaccination eliminated varicella epidemics, and HZ was reduced in vaccine recipients. The HZ incidence for those aged 10–59 years increased from 2014 to 2020, in contrast to those aged ≥ 60 years, which is attributable to booster immunity expiration due to varicella contact in this age group.

The impact of varicella vaccination on paediatric herpes zoster epidemiology: a Canadian population-based retrospective cohort study

The impact of universal varicella vaccination on herpes zoster (HZ) risk in unvaccinated and vaccinated children, and its long-term influence on HZ epidemiology, remains unknown. We conducted a retrospective cohort study using population-based administrative health data for children born between 1993 and 2018 (n = 924,124). We calculated age-specific cumulative HZ incidence rates by vaccination status for cohorts born before (1993–1999) and after (2000–2018) programme implementation; results were used to calculate relative risk of HZ by age group, vaccination status and vaccine availability period. Annual HZ incidence rates were calculated for 1993–2018. HZ risk was higher among unvaccinated children compared to vaccinated children across age groups; 64% higher before universal vaccination (RR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.33, 0.39), and 32% higher after universal vaccination (RR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.73). Among unvaccinated children, HZ risk was 60% lower after vaccine programme implementation (RR: 0.40, 95% CI: 0.38, 0.43). Two-dose receipt corresponded with a 41% lower risk of HZ compared to one-dose receipt (RR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.53, 0.65). Crude annual HZ incidence rates declined 64% after programme implementation, with decreases observed across age groups. Universal varicella vaccination programme implementation corresponds to decreased paediatric HZ incidence across age groups, in both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. Results from this study can be used to help inform varicella vaccination programme decision-making in other countries.

A systematic literature review of herpes zoster incidence worldwide

We conducted a systematic review to characterize the incidence rate of herpes zoster (HZ) in the general population, specifically in individuals ≥50 years of age. A total of 69 publications were included in the review. We found a cumulative incidence of HZ ranging from 2.9–19.5 cases per 1,000 population and an incidence rate of HZ ranging from 5.23–10.9 cases per 1,000 person-years. The cumulative incidence (3.22–11.2 versus 2.44–8.0 cases per 1,000 population) and incidence rates (6.05–12.8 versus 4.30–8.5 cases per 1,000 person-years) were higher in females than males. Studies revealed a trend of increasing incidence of HZ with increasing age and over time. Variations in incidence estimates can be attributed to the various study designs, case ascertainments, age distributions of the population and year of the study. HZ is associated with a substantial disease burden and is expected to increase due to population aging.

Incidence of Hospitalizations and Emergency Department Visits for Herpes Zoster in Immunocompromised and Immunocompetent Adults in Ontario, Canada, 2002-2016

BACKGROUND

Immunocompromised adults are at .increased risk of herpes zoster (HZ) infection and related complications. We aimed to assess the incidence of hospital-attended HZ (ie, seen in hospital or emergency department) in immunocompromised populations and compare it to immunocompetent populations.

METHODS

We calculated incidence rates (IRs) of hospital-attended HZ in Ontario, Canada, between 1 April 2002 and 31 August 2016 in adults ≥18 years of age categorized as immunocompromised or immunocompetent. We repeated these analyses by type of immunocompromising condition and provided incidence rate ratios (IRRs) comparing to immunocompetent adults. We also calculated IRs and IRRs of HZ complications by immunocompromised status.

RESULTS

There were 135 206 incident cases of hospital-attended HZ during the study period. Immunocompromised adults accounted for 13% of these cases despite representing 3% of the population. The risk of hospital-attended HZ was higher for immunocompromised adults compared with immunocompetent adults (IRR, 2.9 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.9-3.0]) and ranged across type of immunocompromising conditions, from 2.6 (95% CI, 2.6-2.7) in those with a solid tumor malignancy to 12.3 (95% CI, 11.3-13.2) in those who had undergone hematopoietic stem cell transplant. The risk of any HZ complication was higher in immunocompromised adults (IRR, 3.6 [95% CI, 3.5-3.7]) and highest for disseminated zoster (IRR, 32.8 [95% CI, 27.8-38.6]).

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of hospital-attended HZ and related complications was higher in immunocompromised populations compared with immunocompetent populations. Our findings underscore the high-risk nature of this population and the potential benefits that may be realized through HZ vaccination.

Incidence of varicella and herpes zoster after inclusion of varicella vaccine in national immunization schedule in Turkey: time trend study

The aim of the study was to investigate changes in the incidences of Varicella and Herpes Zoster (HZ) following introduction of single dose Varicella vaccine (VV) in Turkey. Changes in the incidences of varicella and HZ per 100,000 population were compared with pre (2011-2012) and post-VV period (2018-2019) throughout years between years 2011 and 2019 both for children and adults. In children ≤5 years of age, the annual incidences of varicella significantly decreased from 290 per 100000 children in 2011 to 24 per 100000 children in 2019 [p = .0001]. Also, for children ≤5 years the mean annual incidence of varicella decreased significantly [326/100000 ±51/100000 vs 23/100000 ± 1/100000; p = .014] between pre- and post-VV period. Moreover, the annual incidences of varicella significantly decreased from 43 per 100000 children in 2011 to 26 per 100000 children in 2019 in children age between 6 and 17 years. On the other hand, incidence of varicella in adult population (age >17 years) did not change significantly. Besides, the annual incidences of Herpes Zoster did not change significantly in children age stratas but significant increment observed in adult population. This increment was significant in adult age strata of 18-44 years, but non-significant in age strata of 45-64 years and >64 years. Thus, our study showed a significant reduction in the incidences of Varicella in children age stratas whereas significant increment in the incidence of HZ in adult population after the implementation of VV into the NIP of Turkey.

Incidence of varicella and herpes zoster after inclusion of varicella vaccine in national immunization schedule in Turkey: time trend study

The aim of the study was to investigate changes in the incidences of Varicella and Herpes Zoster (HZ) following introduction of single dose Varicella vaccine (VV) in Turkey. Changes in the incidences of varicella and HZ per 100,000 population were compared with pre (2011-2012) and post-VV period (2018-2019) throughout years between years 2011 and 2019 both for children and adults. In children ≤5 years of age, the annual incidences of varicella significantly decreased from 290 per 100000 children in 2011 to 24 per 100000 children in 2019 [p = .0001]. Also, for children ≤5 years the mean annual incidence of varicella decreased significantly [326/100000 ±51/100000 vs 23/100000 ± 1/100000; p = .014] between pre- and post-VV period. Moreover, the annual incidences of varicella significantly decreased from 43 per 100000 children in 2011 to 26 per 100000 children in 2019 in children age between 6 and 17 years. On the other hand, incidence of varicella in adult population (age >17 years) did not change significantly. Besides, the annual incidences of Herpes Zoster did not change significantly in children age stratas but significant increment observed in adult population. This increment was significant in adult age strata of 18-44 years, but non-significant in age strata of 45-64 years and >64 years. Thus, our study showed a significant reduction in the incidences of Varicella in children age stratas whereas significant increment in the incidence of HZ in adult population after the implementation of VV into the NIP of Turkey.

Herpes zoster in older adults in Ontario, 2002-2016: Investigating incidence and exploring equity

Older adults are at increased risk of herpes zoster (HZ) and post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) and HZ vaccines are available to help prevent infection. The objective of our study was to provide updated data on incidence of HZ and PHN related to clinical and demographic factors in older adults to inform immunization practices. We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study and included all cases of HZ seen in outpatient, emergency department, and hospital settings for adults aged 65 years and over between April 1, 2002 to August 31, 2016 in Ontario, Canada. We calculated the incidence of HZ and PHN, and estimated the proportion within each subgroup that developed PHN. We also assessed incidence by neighbourhood-level income quintile before and after the availability of vaccine for private purchase. The average annual incidence of HZ in any setting was 59.0 per 10,000 older adults, with higher incidence in outpatient as opposed to hospital settings. Incidence was higher in the oldest age groups, females, and those classified as immunocompromised or frail. Relative to the pre-vaccine era, the disparities in incidence of HZ by neighbourhood-level income increased, with higher rates of HZ and PHN seen in those residing in lower income quintiles. Additional prevention efforts should be targeted toward adults who are immunocompromised, frail, and those living in lower socioeconomic quintiles. Future work should assess the impact of the zoster vaccine program with a particular focus on equity in the publicly-funded era.

What We Know Now: An Economic Evaluation of Chickenpox Vaccination and Dose Timing Using an Agent-Based Model

OBJECTIVES

The value of chickenpox vaccination is still debated in the literature and by jurisdictions worldwide. This uncertainty is reflected in the inconsistent uptake of the vaccine, where some countries offer routine childhood immunization programs, others have targeted programs, and in many the vaccine is only privately available. Even across the countries that have universal funding for the vaccine, there is a diversity of schedules and dosing intervals. Using an agent-based model of chickenpox and shingles, we conducted an economic evaluation of chickenpox vaccination in Alberta, Canada.

METHODS

We compared the cost-effectiveness of 2 common chickenpox vaccination schedules, specifically a long dosing interval (first dose: 12 months; second dose: 4-6 years) and a short dosing interval (first dose: 12 months; second dose: 18 months).

RESULTS

The economic evaluation demonstrated a shorter dosing interval may be marginally preferred, although it consistently led to higher costs from both the societal and healthcare perspectives. We found that chickenpox vaccination would be cost-saving and highly cost-effective from the societal and healthcare perspective, assuming there was no impact on shingles.

CONCLUSION

Chickenpox vaccine was cost-effective when not considering shingles and remained so even if there was a minor increase in shingles following vaccination. However, if chickenpox vaccination did lead to a substantial increase in shingles, then chickenpox vaccination was not cost-effective from the healthcare perspective.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against herpes zoster in Canada: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Two vaccines against herpes zoster are currently authorized for use in Canada: the recombinant subunit zoster vaccine and live attenuated zoster vaccine. We compared the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of these 2 vaccines.

METHODS

We used a decision analytic static cohort model parametrized with Canadian epidemiologic and economic data. We performed the economic analysis from the health care system perspective, using a lifetime horizon and a 3% discount rate for costs and benefits. The primary outcome was the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, relative to no vaccination. We ran 30 000 simulations varying all model parameters, including vaccine costs, efficacy and waning.

RESULTS

The number needed to vaccinate (NNV) was higher for the live attenuated zoster vaccine than for the recombinant subunit zoster vaccine for all herpes zoster-related events at all ages. For example, in persons exactly 65 years old, for herpes zoster, median NNV was 21 (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 13-31) versus 8 (90% UI 6-18), and for postherpetic neuralgia, NNV was 64 (90% UI 33-93) versus 31 (90% UI 23-73). For the recombinant vaccine, the median cost-effectiveness ratios varied between cost-saving and $25 881 per QALY gained for adults aged 50 years or older. For the live vaccine, the cost-effectiveness ratios varied between cost-saving and $130 587 per QALY gained and were less than $45 000 per QALY gained only for those 65 to 75 years old. Given its higher efficacy, we estimated that the cost for the complete series of the recombinant vaccine could be $150 to $200 more than the cost of the live vaccine and still be considered cost-effective.

INTERPRETATION

Our model predicted that the recombinant subunit zoster vaccine is likely cost-effective in Canada for adults 60 years or older, and is likely more cost-effective than live attenuated zoster vaccine. These results have informed updated national and provincial recommendations on herpes zoster vaccination.

Do varicella vaccination programs change the epidemiology of herpes zoster? A comprehensive review, with focus on the United States

Introduction: Policy-makers in many countries have been wary of introducing varicella vaccination programs because of concerns that reduced exposures to varicella-zoster virus could increase herpes zoster (HZ) incidence. The U.S. introduced varicella vaccination in 1996 and has empiric evidence regarding this concern. Areas covered: This comprehensive review provides background emphasizing the epidemiology of varicella and of HZ in the U.S. before and after the introduction of their respective vaccines. The epidemiology is complex, and interpretation is complicated by methodologic challenges, by unexplained increases in age-specific HZ incidence that preceded varicella vaccination, and by introduction of vaccines for prevention of HZ. Nonetheless, observations from studies using different platforms and designs have yielded consistent findings, suggesting they are robust. Expert opinion: There has been no evidence that the U.S. varicella vaccination program increased HZ incidence in the general adult population over baseline trends. Furthermore, HZ incidence in children is declining. The U.S. experience can inform the development of new generations of models to predict HZ trends. More importantly, it provides reassurance for countries considering varicella vaccination that an effective program can reduce varicella morbidity and mortality while reducing the likelihood of HZ among children, and potentially, over time, across the entire population.

Incidence of Herpes Zoster Among Children: 2003-2014

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

After the 1996 introduction of routine varicella vaccination in the United States, most studies evaluating pediatric herpes zoster (HZ) incidence reported lower incidence over time, with varying degrees of decline. Using the combined databases of 6 integrated health care organizations, we examined HZ incidence in children over a 12-year period in the varicella vaccine era.

METHODS

This study included children aged 0 through 17 years from 2003 through 2014. Using electronic medical records, we identified HZ cases through International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision diagnosis code 053. We calculated HZ incidence rates per 100 000 person years of health plan membership for all children and among children who were vaccinated versus unvaccinated. We calculated rates for the 12-year period and examined temporal trends. Among children who were vaccinated, we compared HZ rates by month and year of age at vaccination.

RESULTS

The study included 6 372 067 children with ≥1 month of health plan membership. For the 12-year period, the crude HZ incidence rate for all subjects was 74 per 100 000 person years, and the rate among children who were vaccinated was 38 per 100 000 person years, which was 78% lower than that among children who were unvaccinated (170 per 100 000 person years; P < .0001). Overall HZ incidence declined by 72% (P < .0001) from 2003 through 2014. Annual rates in children who were vaccinated were consistently lower than in children who were unvaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

With this population-based study, we confirm the decline in pediatric HZ incidence and the significantly lower incidence among children who are vaccinated, reinforcing the benefit of routine varicella vaccination to prevent pediatric HZ.

Trends in U.S. Community hospitalizations due to herpes zoster: 2001-2015

BACKGROUND

In 2007, based on decisions by the U.S. Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, the CDC recommended a booster dose at 4-6 years in the varicella vaccine schedule. In 2008, a herpes zoster vaccine was recommended for use in persons age ≥60 years. The purpose of this study was to examine trends in herpes zoster hospitalization rates and assess the impact of both policy recommendations using U.S. hospital discharge data.

METHODS

Nationwide Inpatient Sample discharge data from 2001 to 2015 were used to identify primary or secondary herpes zoster diagnoses. Trends in annual total and age-specific herpes zoster hospitalization rates and average length of stay were examined. Average annual rates for the pre (2001-2005) and post (2012-2015)-zoster vaccine policy eras were compared. Absolute change in herpes zoster hospitalizations were calculated.

RESULTS

The rate difference of U.S. herpes zoster hospitalizations in the post vs. pre-zoster vaccine policy era was -1.9 per 100,000 population (6,200 fewer hospitalizations in 2015 than expected). Key age group rate differences: 0-3 years (-0.4 per 100,000; 50 fewer), 4-6 years (-0.6 per 100,000; 50 fewer), 7-14 years (-1.3 per 100,000; 400 fewer), 50-59 years (0.7 per 100,000; 300 more), 60-69 years (-2.5 per 100,000; 900 fewer), 70-79 years (-10.2 per 100,000; 2,000 fewer), 80+ years (-29.9 per 100,000; 3,600 fewer).

CONCLUSIONS

Reduction of wild-type varicella due to the 2-dose varicella vaccination recommendation may have impacted declining herpes zoster hospitalization rates among children ≤14 years. The 2008 herpes zoster vaccine may have impacted declining herpes zoster hospitalization rates for adults age ≥60 years despite vaccination coverage <31% by 2015.

Global impact of varicella vaccination programs

Although varicella is usually a mild and self-limited disease, complications can occur. In 1998, the World Health Organization recommended varicella vaccination for countries where the disease has a significant public health burden. Nonetheless, concerns about a shift in the disease to older groups, an increase in herpes zoster in the elderly and cost-effectiveness led many countries to postpone universal varicella vaccine introduction. In this review, we summarize the accumulating evidence, available mostly from high and middle-income countries supporting a high impact of universal vaccination in reductions of the incidence of the disease and hospitalizations and its cost-effectiveness. We have also observed the effect of herd immunity and noted that there is no definitive and consistent association between vaccination and the increase in herpes zoster incidence in the elderly.

Understanding the role of exogenous boosting in modeling varicella vaccination

INTRODUCTION

The exogenous boosting (EB) hypothesis posits that cell-mediated immunity is boosted for individuals reexposed to varicella-zoster virus (VZV). Historically, mathematical models of the impact of universal childhood varicella vaccination (UVV) have used limited data to capture EB and often conclude that UVV will temporarily increase herpes zoster (HZ) incidence.

AREAS COVERED

We updated a 2013 systematic literature review of 40 studies to summarize new evidence from observational or modeling studies related to EB and its parameterization. We abstracted data on observational study designs and mathematical model structures, EB frameworks, and HZ-related parameter values.

EXPERT COMMENTARY

This review identified an additional 41 studies: 22 observational and 19 modeling studies. Observational analyses generally reported pre-UVV increases in HZ incidence, making it difficult to attribute post-UVV increases to UVV versus other causes. Modeling studies considered a range of EB frameworks, from no boosting to full permanent immunity. Mathematical modeling efforts are needed in countries with long-standing vaccination programs to capture the dynamics of VZV transmission and temporal changes that may affect HZ incidence. Use of real-world pre-/postvaccination data on varicella and HZ incidence to validate model predictions may improve approaches to EB parameterization and understanding of the effects of varicella vaccination programs.

Herpes Zoster Burden in Canadian Provinces: A Narrative Review and Comparison with Quebec Provincial Data

Background

The main aim of this review was to assess incidence rates and trends of medically attended and death cases of herpes zoster in Canada.

Methods

The search was conducted in five databases (PubMed, Cochrane, Embase, PsycNET, and Web of Science). Data on herpes zoster-related consultations and hospitalisations and deaths were also extracted from three Quebec provincial administrative databases (RAMQ, MED-ECHO, and ISQ).

Results

The electronic search yielded 587 publications. Seventeen publications satisfied inclusion criteria. These publications reported data from eleven studies. Ten studies used provincial databases, and one study used the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network electronic database. Seven studies evaluated overall rates of medically attended cases (consultations and hospitalisations). Four of these studies reported an increase in rates of medically attended cases during the study period; one study reported stable rates, and two studies reported only an average rate. The rates varied from 316 to 450/100,000 p.y. The Quebec analysis shows similar rates with a slight decreasing trend (from 369 to 350/100,000 p.y.). Incidence rates of consultations were reported separately in three studies. Two studies reported an increase in rates (from 258 to 348/100,000 p.y. and from 324 to 366/100,000 p.y.), and the third study reported a decrease (from 525 to 479/100,000 p.y.). Hospitalization rates were reported separately in two studies, both reporting a decrease (from 12 to 8 cases/100,000 p.y. and from 9 to 4 cases/100,000 p.y.). Quebec data also showed a decrease, from 9 to 6 cases/100,000 p.y. One study reported herpes zoster-related deaths. In this study, the reported death rate was 0.7/1,000,000 p.y. in the overall population and 5.5/1,000,000 p.y. in those aged ≥65 years. Quebec analysis showed a death rate of 1.2/1,000,000 p.y. in the overall population and 8.6/1,000,000 p.y. in those aged ≥65 years.

Conclusions

The results of the reviewed studies and our analysis of Quebec provincial data indicate important variations in the reported overall incidence rates of medically attended herpes zoster cases in Canada. The trends in time are heterogeneous in studies in which hospitalisations and medical consultations were pooled together. We observed a decrease in hospitalization rates and a slight increase in consultation rates in studies reporting hospitalisations and consultations separately. These results consolidate the understanding of the herpes zoster burden in Canada and might be used as a tool in decision-making regarding future preventive interventions.

Summary of the NACI Update on Herpes Zoster Vaccines

BACKGROUND

Steep increases in herpes zoster (HZ) incidence, hospitalization due to HZ and the risk of post-herpetic neuralgia as a complication of HZ occur in people over 50 years of age. Two HZ vaccines are currently authorized for use in those 50 years of age and older in Canada: a live attenuated zoster vaccine (LZV) authorized in 2008; and a recombinant subunit vaccine (RZV) authorized in October 2017.

OBJECTIVES

To review current evidence and develop guidance on whether the previously authorized LZV (Zostavax®) and/or the recently authorized RZV (Shingrix®) vaccine should be offered to Canadians 50 years of age and older: 1) at a population-level, in publicly funded immunization programs; and 2) at an individual-level, to individuals wishing to prevent HZ, or by clinicians wishing to advise individual patients about preventing HZ.

METHODS

The National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI) Herpes Zoster Working Group developed a predefined search strategy to identify all eligible studies, assessed their quality, and summarized and analyzed the findings. A Cost Utility Analysis of LZV and RZV was also conducted from a health care system perspective. Recommendations were proposed according to NACI's evidence-based process. The strength of these recommendations was defined, and the Grade of evidence supporting them was identified. In light of the evidence, the recommendations were then considered and approved by NACI.

RESULTS

Five recommendations were developed for public health and individual-level decision-making. 1) RZV should be offered to populations/individuals >50 years of age without contraindications (Strong NACI Recommendation, Grade A evidence). 2) RZV should be offered to populations/individuals >50 years of age without contraindications who have previously been vaccinated with LZV (Strong NACI Recommendation, Grade A evidence). Re-immunization with two doses of RZV may be considered one year after LZV (Discretionary NACI Recommendation, Grade I evidence). 3) RZV should be offered to populations/individuals >50 years of age without contraindications who have had a previous episode of HZ (Strong NACI Recommendation, Grade B evidence). Immunization with two doses of RZV may be considered one year after the HZ episode (Discretionary NACI Recommendation, Grade I evidence). 4) LZV may be considered for immunocompetent populations/individuals >50 years of age without contraindications when RZV is contraindicated, unavailable or inaccessible (Discretionary NACI Recommendation, Grade A evidence). 5) RZV (not LZV) may be considered in immunocompromised adults >50 years of age on a case-by-case basis (Discretionary NACI Recommendation, Grade I evidence).

CONCLUSION

Both vaccines have been shown to be safe and immunogenic and to reduce the incidence of HZ and post-herpetic neuralgia. Vaccine efficacy of LZV against HZ decreases with age at, and time since vaccination. The vaccine efficacy of RZV remains higher and appears to decline more slowly than vaccine efficacy of LZV across all age groups. Both vaccines are cost-effective in those 50 years of age and older compared with no vaccination, especially in those 65-79 years of age. RZV is more cost-effective than LZV.

Trends in herpes zoster epidemiology in Germany based on primary care sentinel surveillance data, 2005-2016

Herpes zoster (HZ) is caused by reactivation of the varicella-zoster-virus (VZV). Childhood varicella vaccination, as recommended in Germany in 2004, may reduce the risk of HZ in vaccinated children but also virus circulation and thus the booster possibility of latent infected persons. In this context we analyzed age-specific trends in HZ epidemiology in Germany using data on HZ-associated outpatient consultations in participating sentinel sites and HZ-associated cases in all hospitals since 2005. We analyzed two separate time periods that differed in sentinel management and data integrity. For the period 2005-2010, we found a decrease in HZ-associated outpatient consultations in 1- to 4-year-olds (IRR = 0.72, 95%CI 0.63-0.81, p<0.001). For the period 2013-2016, we observed a decrease in HZ-associated outpatient consultations in 10- to 14-year-olds (IRR = 0.85, 95%CI 0.78-0.93, p<0.01). Moreover, we detected an increase in the age groups 20 years and older except for the group 30-39 years. HZ-associated hospitalizations showed similar trends for the second time period (here 2012-2015). The decrease in HZ-associated outpatient consultations and hospitalizations in children started and continued over cohorts eligible for varicella vaccination and could be a result of their reduced HZ-risk. Whether the observed steady increasing HZ incidences for adults are associated with the varicella vaccination in children remains unclear and could not be investigated with our data.

Evaluation of the effect of chickenpox vaccination on shingles epidemiology using agent-based modeling

BACKGROUND

Biological interactions between varicella (chickenpox) and herpes zoster (shingles), two diseases caused by the varicella zoster virus (VZV), continue to be debated including the potential effect on shingles cases following the introduction of universal childhood chickenpox vaccination programs. We investigated how chickenpox vaccination in Alberta impacts the incidence and age-distribution of shingles over 75 years post-vaccination, taking into consideration a variety of plausible theories of waning and boosting of immunity.

METHODS

We developed an agent-based model representing VZV disease, transmission, vaccination states and coverage, waning and boosting of immunity in a stylized geographic area, utilizing a distance-based network. We derived parameters from literature, including modeling, epidemiological, and immunology studies. We calibrated our model to the age-specific incidence of shingles and chickenpox prior to vaccination to derive optimal combinations of duration of boosting (DoB) and waning of immunity. We conducted paired simulations with and without implementing chickenpox vaccination. We computed the count and cumulative incidence rate of shingles cases at 10, 25, 50, and 75 years intervals, following introduction of vaccination, and compared the difference between runs with vaccination and without vaccination using the Mann-Whitney U-test to determine statistical significance. We carried out sensitivity analyses by increasing and lowering vaccination coverage and removing biological effect of boosting.

RESULTS

Chickenpox vaccination led to a decrease in chickenpox cases. The cumulative incidence of chickenpox had dropped from 1,254 cases per 100,000 person-years pre chickenpox vaccination to 193 cases per 100,000 person-years 10 years after the vaccine implementation. We observed an increase in the all-ages shingles cumulative incidence at 10 and 25 years post chickenpox vaccination and mixed cumulative incidence change at 50 and 75 years post-vaccination. The magnitude of change was sensitive to DoB and ranged from an increase of 22-100 per 100,000 person-years at 10 years post-vaccination for two and seven years of boosting respectively (p < 0.001). At 75 years post-vaccination, cumulative incidence ranged from a decline of 70 to an increase of 71 per 100,000 person-years for two and seven years of boosting respectively (p < 0.001). Sensitivity analyses had a minimal impact on our inferences except for removing the effect of boosting.

DISCUSSION

Our model demonstrates that over the longer time period, there will be a reduction in shingles incidence driven by the depletion of the source of shingles reactivation; however in the short to medium term some age cohorts may experience an increase in shingles incidence. Our model offers a platform to further explore the relationship between chickenpox and shingles, including analyzing the impact of different chickenpox vaccination schedules and cost-effectiveness studies.

"One of the greatest medical success stories:" Physicians and nurses' small stories about vaccine knowledge and anxieties

In recent years, the Canadian province of Alberta experienced outbreaks of measles, mumps, pertussis, and influenza. Even so, the dominant cultural narrative maintains that vaccines are safe, effective, and necessary to maintain population health. Many vaccine supporters have expressed anxieties that stories contradicting this narrative have lowered herd immunity levels because they frighten the public into avoiding vaccination. As such, vaccine policies often emphasize educating parents and the public about the importance and safety of vaccination. These policies rely on health professionals to encourage vaccine uptake and assume that all professionals support vaccination. Health professionals, however, are socially positioned between vaccine experts (such as immunologists) and non-experts (the wider public). In this article, I discuss health professionals' anxieties about the potential risks associated with vaccination and with the limitations of Alberta's immunisation program. Specifically, I address the question: If medical knowledge overwhelmingly supports vaccination, then why do some professionals continue to question certain vaccines? To investigate this topic, I interviewed twenty-seven physicians and seven nurses. With stock images and small stories that interviewees shared about their vaccine anxieties, I challenge the common assumption that all health professionals support vaccines uncritically. All interviewees provided generic statements that supported vaccination and Alberta's immunisation program, but they expressed anxieties when I asked for details. I found that their anxieties reflected nuances that the culturally dominant vaccine narrative overlooks. Particularly, they critiqued the influence that pharmaceutical companies, the perceived newness of specific vaccines, and the limitations of medical knowledge and vaccine schedules.

The effectiveness of shingles vaccine among Albertans aged 50 years or older: A retrospective cohort study

PURPOSE

We assessed the effectiveness of shingles vaccine in preventing incident shingles among Alberta residents aged 50 years or older over the period 2009 - 2015, using administrative health data.

METHODS

The cohort comprised of Albertans from the Alberta Health Care Insurance Plan Registry (AHCIP) as of June 30, 2009 and aged 50 years or older. Those who received shingles vaccine were identified from the provincial pharmaceutical information network. The occurrence of incident shingles was identified through both inpatient and outpatients/community care data. Incident shingles was defined as the earliest dated record of ICD 9-CM 053 or ICD-10-CA B02. Starting on November 1, 2009, individuals with no history of shingles or shingles vaccination were followed until Nov 1, 2015 (6 years), or until shingles incidence, death, or AHCIP cancellation (including leaving Alberta). Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was estimated as the inverse of the relative risk of developing incident shingles in each year following vaccination compared to time at risk without vaccination, while adjusting for age, sex, income quintile, and immune compromising conditions (identified from physician claims, inpatient, and cancer registry data).

RESULTS

There were 1,094,236 individuals in the cohort, with 85,439 (7.80%) vaccinated individuals. The shingles incidence rate was 9.03 [95% CI: 8.95, 9.11] cases per 1,000 person years (49,243 cases). Adjusted VE in the first year following immunization was 50.02% [95% CI: 44.71%, 54.83%] against incident shingles, decreasing to no effect by the fifth year (VE = 14.00% [95% CI: -20.99%, 38.88%]).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings are consistent with observations from other population based studies and provide population level data for policy-makers to review when making decisions related to public funding of shingles vaccine.

Post-herpetic neuralgia - a review of current management and future directions

Post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) is common and treatment is often suboptimal with less than half of patients achieving adequate 50% pain relief. As an area of unmet clinical need and as an archetype of neuropathic pain, it deserves the attention of clinicians and researchers. Areas covered: This review summarises the epidemiology, pathophysiology, risk factors and clinical features of varicella infection. It describes the current and possible future management strategies for preventing varicella infection and reactivation and for treating PHN. Expert opinion: A highly successful Varicella Zoster (VZV) vaccine has not been universally adopted due to fears that it may increase Herpes Zoster (HZ) incidence - and thus PHN - in older, unvaccinated generations. This is a controversial theory but advances in the efficacy of vaccines against HZ may allay these fears and encourage more widespread adoption of the VZV vaccine. Treatment of PHN, as for any neuropathic pain, must be multidisciplinary and multimodal. Advances in sensory phenotyping technology and genomics may allow more individualised treatment. Traditional research methodologies are ill-suited to assess the kind of complex interventions that are necessary to achieve better clinical outcomes in this challenging field.

Trends in Nationwide Herpes Zoster Emergency Department Utilization From 2006 to 2013

Importance

The effect of vaccination on emergency department (ED) utilization for herpes zoster (HZ) has not been examined to date.

Objective

To determine trends in US ED utilization and costs associated with HZ.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The Nationwide Emergency Department Sample data set was examined for temporal trends in the number of visits and costs for treatment of HZ in EDs in the United States from January 1, 2006, through December 31, 2013. Cases of HZ were identified using validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision-Clinical Modification diagnosis codes. Patients were stratified by age: less than 20 years (varicella vaccine recommended), 20 to 59 years (no vaccine recommended), and 60 years or older (HZ vaccine recommended). Population-based rates were estimated using sampling weights.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Population-based incidence rates of HZ-related ED visits, charge for ED services, and total charges.

Results

A total of 1 350 957 ED visits for HZ were identified between 2006 and 2013, representing 0.13% of all US ED visits. Of these patients, 563 200 (51.7%) were male; mean (SE) age was 54.0 (0.1) years. Between 2006 and 2013, the percentage of HZ-related ED visits increased from 0.13% to 0.14% (8.3%). This growth was driven by patients aged 20 to 59 years (increase of 22.8% [from 0.12% to 0.14% of ED visits]) while the proportion of ED HZ visits decreased for patients aged less than 20 years and 60 years or older, from 0.03% to 0.02% (-39.6%) and from 0.28% to 0.25% (-10.9%), respectively. For all age groups, there was an increase from 2006 to 2013 in overall adjusted total (from $92.83 to $202.47 million) and mean charges (from $763 to $1262) for HZ-related ED visits.

Conclusions and Relevance

The number of ED visits and total cost associated with HZ increased between 2006 and 2013. Greater use was driven by an increased number of visits by patients aged 20 to 59 years, but populations recommended for vaccination (<20 and ≥60 years) demonstrated decreased ED utilization. Per-visit and total costs increased across all age groups. Vaccination may be associated with a reduction of ED utilization. Further research is required to confirm these results and examine the drivers of increased ED costs.

How well do ICD-9 physician claim diagnostic codes identify confirmed pertussis cases in Alberta, Canada? A Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) Study

Background

Rates of Bordetella pertussis have been increasing in Alberta, Canada despite vaccination programs. Waning immunity from existing acellular component vaccines may be contributing to this. Vaccine effectiveness can be estimated using a variety of data sources including diagnostic codes from physician billing claims, public health records, reportable disease and laboratory databases. We sought to determine if diagnostic codes from billing claims (administrative data) are adequately sensitive and specific to identify pertussis cases among patients who had undergone disease-specific laboratory testing.

Methods

Data were extracted for 2004–2014 from a public health communicable disease database that contained data on patients under investigation for B. pertussis (both those who had laboratory tests and those who were epidemiologically linked to laboratory-confirmed cases) in Alberta, Canada. These were deterministically linked using a unique lifetime person identifier to the provincial billing claims database, which contains International Classification of Disease version 9 (ICD-9) diagnostic codes for physician visits. We examined visits within 90 days of laboratory testing. ICD-9 codes 033 (whooping cough), 033.0 (Bordetella pertussis), 033.1 (B. parapertussis), 033.8 (whooping cough, other specified organism), and 033.9 (whooping cough, other unspecified organism) in any of the three diagnostic fields for a claim were classified as being pertussis-specific codes. We calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values.

Results

We identified 22,883 unique patients under investigation for B. pertussis. Of these, 22,095 underwent laboratory testing. Among those who had a laboratory test, 2360 tested positive for pertussis. The sensitivity of a pertussis-specific ICD-9 code for identifying a laboratory-confirmed case was 38.6%, specificity was 76.9%, PPV was 16.0%, and NPV was 91.6%.

Conclusion

ICD-9 codes from physician billing claims data have low sensitivity and moderate specificity to identify laboratory-confirmed pertussis among persons tested for pertussis.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12913-017-2321-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The temporal impact of aging on the burden of herpes zoster

Background

The risk of Herpes Zoster (HZ) increases with age and various studies have also demonstrated an increasing HZ incidence globally. Simultaneously, the global trend of an aging population has placed a greater burden on the healthcare system. This study aims to estimate the potential burden of HZ over time accounting for the increasing trends of both HZ incidence and global aging.

Methods

A recent systematic review on HZ incidence identified studies that evaluated the temporal effects of HZ incidence. Data from the identified studies were extracted to estimate the trend of HZ incidence in the ≥65-year-old age cohort. The incidence rates were estimated up to the year 2030 using two scenarios: a linear extrapolation and a last observation carried forward. Three countries were chosen to perform the analysis on: Australia, Japan and the United States.

Results

The incidence data from the three countries showed an average annual increase between 2.35 and 3.74% over the time period of the studies selected. The elderly population for the US, Japan and Australia are expected to increase by 55, 10 and 53% respectively by the year 2030 compared to the levels in 2015. Under the first scenario between 2001 and 2030, the number of annual incident cases of HZ in those aged ≥65 years is expected to increase by +343% (293,785 to 1,303,328), +176% (158,616 to 437,867) and +376% (18,105 to 86,268) in the US, Japan and Australia respectively while those for the second scenario are +150%, +83% and +223% respectively. In the US alone, the estimated annual cost of HZ-related cases in the ≥65 age cohort is approximately 4.74 Billion US$ in 2030.

Conclusions

The increasing incidence of HZ coupled with the demographic trends (i.e., aging population and greater life expectancy) in many countries are likely to imply a rising economic burden of HZ on already constrained healthcare budgets.

Cost of shingles: population based burden of disease analysis of herpes zoster and postherpetic neuralgia

Background

Around 30% of the population will experience herpes zoster (HZ), 10% of whom develop postherpetic neuralgia (PHN). Together, these illnesses produce a significant economic burden to the healthcare system.

Methods

Administrative healthcare data collected over the period of April 1^st 1997 to March 31^st 2014 were analyzed to determine the healthcare system burden of HZ using direct medical costs. Episodes of HZ were identified using international classification of disease (ICD) codes. Trends in age-adjusted (AA) HZ-rates were analyzed by piecewise-regression. Total annual and per-episode costs were determined for drug treatment, medical care, and hospitalizations within each year.

Results

The incidence of HZ increased by 49.5% from 1997/98 to 2013/14. Piecewise-regression of AA-rates revealed a steady AA-rate of 4.7 episodes/1000 person-years (PY) from 1997/98 to a breakpoint in 2008/09, after which rates began to increase reaching 5.7 episodes/1000 PY in 2013/14.

Drug costs rose significantly (p <0.03) from $89.77/episode (95% CI: $82.96, $96.59) to $127.34/episode (95% CI: $117.24, $137.44). Medical costs increased (p <0.0001) from $57.98/episode (95% CI; $55.26, $60.70) to $78.84/episode (95% CI; $74.08, $83.61). Hospitalization rates declined from 3.10% in 1997/98 to 1.36% in 2011/12, resulting in cost dropping from $397/episode (95% CI; $284, $511) to $195/episode (95% CI; $129, $260).

Total annual costs of HZ and PHN were $1,997,183 in 2011/12, 4.7% lower than the 1997/98 costs of $2,095,633.

Conclusion

A significant increase in annual number of HZ cases was observed, driven largely by demographic factors. A 21% increase in the AA-incidence reveals changes in HZ rates beyond those expected by population shifts.

The large increase in incidence of HZ, with rising per episode medical and prescription costs were offset by dramatic drops in hospitalization rates, the net effect of which has been to hold the total costs relatively constant. However, the decrease in hospitalization rates slowed over the last half of the study, settling at 1.3% in the last 4 study years. The likely future of HZ burden is one of rising costs, primarily driven by the demographic shifts of an increasing and aging population.

Increasing incidence associated with herpes zoster infection in British Columbia, Canada

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have shown an increasing incidence of herpes zoster (HZ) infection, which may be related to the introduction of varicella vaccination programs in children. We examined the epidemiology and treatment costs of HZ and post-herpetic neuralgia (PHN) over time in British Columbia, Canada.

METHODS

The cohort consisted of all cases with HZ infection from January 1, 1997 and December 31, 2012. Incident zoster was defined as a case (ICD-9 053 or ICD-10 B02) without a previous episode of HZ or PHN in the previous 12 months. We determined the incidence for HZ and PHN and the age-sex standardized rate for the overall population. We determined the association between the varicella vaccination program and increased HZ rates by evaluating the rate ratios in the publicly-funded varicella vaccine period compared to the non-publicly funded period in a regression model. We evaluated the hospitalization rates, treatment by GPs and their associated yearly costs for HZ and PHN.

RESULTS

HZ incidence increased for the entire study period from 3.2 per 1000 population in 1997 to 4.5 in 2012. HZ rates were higher for females than males and all age groups had an increased incidence rate, except the 0-9 year olds, where the rate decreased. Crude and age-sex standardized incidence rates of PHN demonstrated very similar patterns to HZ incidence. Based on the regression model, rates of HZ were higher in the older individuals. No significant increase with HZ incidence was seen during the publically funded varicella vaccination program compared to the non-publicly funded period. From 1997 to 2012, the annual HZ-related costs associated with hospitalizations and GP visits were over $CDN4.9 million and $CDN537,286, respectively; treatment costs for hospitalizations have increased significantly over time. Majority of PHN-related cases are managed by GPs, with a steady increase over time in number of cases and associated annual costs.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of zoster and PHN is increasing with time, particularly in the elderly population and the risk is greater in the over 65 year olds. Treatment costs for both HZ and PHN represent a significant burden on the Canadian healthcare system.

Varicella zoster virus related deaths and hospitalizations before the introduction of universal vaccination with the tetraviral vaccine

OBJECTIVE

To characterize varicella zoster virus-related deaths and hospitalizations in Brazil before universal vaccination with the tetravalent (measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella) vaccine, attempting to collect baseline data on varicella morbidity and mortality in order to evaluate the impact of the varicella vaccination program.

METHODS

Varicella-associated mortality data were evaluated between 1996 and 2011 and varicella zoster virus-associated hospitalizations between 1998 and 2013. Data were gathered from the Informatics Department of the Unified Health System, considering the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, code B01. All age groups were assessed. Varicella-specific mortality rates were calculated and seasonality of varicella-zoster virus-associated hospitalizations was described.

RESULTS

There were 2334 varicella deaths between 1996 and 2011, 19.3% in infants aged less than 1 year and 36% in children from 1 to 4 years. In infants under 1 year, varicella mortality rates reached 3.2/100,000/year. In children aged 1-4 years, varicella mortality rates reach 1.64/100,000/year. Average annual mortality rates for varicella in Brazil are 0.88/100,000 in infants under 1 year and 0.40/100,000 in children aged 1-4 years. The total number of hospitalizations associated with varicella zoster virus was 62,246 from 2008 to 2013. Varicella-associated hospitalizations have a seasonal distribution in children, peaking in November. In the elderly, monthly averages of herpes zoster-associated hospitalizations present no significant seasonal variation.

CONCLUSIONS

Varicella is associated, in the pre-vaccine period, to significant morbidity and mortality in Brazil. The universal vaccination program is expected to decrease the disease burden from varicella.

HPV Vaccine utilization, Alberta 2008/09-2013/14 School year

BACKGROUND

In Canada both bivalent (bHPV) vaccine and quadrivalent HPV vaccine (qHPV) are authorized for use. In Alberta, while both vaccines are available for private purchase, only qHPV is publicly funded for school girls in grades 5 and 9 as of 2013. We describe HPV vaccine uptake in Alberta, by school year, from the start of the publicly funded program in the Fall of 2008 through to August 31(st) 2014 and estimate the cumulative proportion of the female population who were vaccinated by the end of the 2013/14 school year.

METHODS

We used data from the Alberta Ministry of Health Immunization and Adverse Reaction to Immunization repository (publicly funded vaccine), the population-based Pharmaceutical Information Network information systems (privately purchased vaccine) for the period September 1, 2008 to August 31, 2014 and demographic data from the Alberta Health Care Insurance Plan Registry. We estimate vaccine uptake rates and explore them by attributes of person, time, place, vaccine funding, and number of doses received. We estimated the cumulative proportions of the female population (by age group and number of doses received) who had received HPV vaccine by the end of the 2013/14 school year.

RESULTS

Of the 169,259 unique individuals who received one or more doses of HPV vaccine over the period, 98.3% were females, and 83.8% received publicly funded vaccines. Vaccine uptake increased over the period. The cumulative proportion of females aged 9-26 years as of 2013/14 who had received two or more doses of vaccine was 34.3%; for those aged 10-11 years 59.6% and for those aged 14-15 years, 76.0%. For those aged 9-26 years, 31.3% had received three doses of vaccine.

CONCLUSION

HPV vaccine uptake rates have increased in Alberta over the study period, most prominently among the age groups targeted by the publicly funded school-girl vaccine program.

Twenty Years of Medically-Attended Pediatric Varicella and Herpes Zoster in Ontario, Canada: A Population-Based Study

OBJECTIVE

To determine if reductions in medically-attended pediatric varicella and herpes zoster occurred in Ontario, Canada, after publicly-funded varicella immunization was implemented in 2004.

METHODS

For fiscal years (FY) 1992-2011, we examined data on varicella and herpes zoster physician office visits, emergency department (ED) visits, hospitalizations (including for varicella-associated skin and soft tissue infections [SSTI]), and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, among those aged <18 years. The pre-vaccine, privately-available, and vaccine program eras were FY1992-1998, FY1999-2003, and FY2004-2011, respectively. We used Poisson regressionand Kruskal-Wallis tests (all at the p<0.05 level of significance), and compared rates using incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Incidence of varicella office visits declined over the study period from a high of 25.1/1,000 in FY1994 to a low of 3.2/1,000 in FY2011. ED visits and hospitalizations followed similar patterns of decreasing rates later in the study period. IRRs comparing the vaccine program versus pre-vaccine eras were 0.29 (95%CI: 0.26-0.32) for office visits, 0.29 (95%CI: 0.21-0.40) for ED visits, and 0.41 (95%CI: 0.10-1.69) for hospitalizations. Annual declines in varicella office visits were 7.7%, 9.1%, 8.4%, and 8.4% per year among children aged <1 year, 1-4 years, 5-11 years, and ≥12 years, respectively (all p<0.001). Age-specific rates of varicella-associated SSTI declined significantly among children <12 years (p<0.001) and rates of ICU admissions decreased significantly for children <1 year (p = 0.02). (p<0.001) over the study period. For children aged 5-17 years, herpes zoster office visits decreased whereas ED visits increased (both p<0.001) and there was a small, non-significant (p = 0.07), decrease in hospitalizations.

CONCLUSION

Medically-attended varicella decreased during the study period, particularly since varicella vaccine was publicly-funded. Results suggest immunization program-related changes in varicella epidemiology, including herd effects, demonstrated by reductions in varicella in program-ineligible age groups. We did not observe a consistent impact on herpes zoster.

Herpes zoster vaccine (HZV): utilization and coverage 2009 - 2013, Alberta, Canada

BACKGROUND

Herpes zoster vaccine (HZV) is not publicly funded in the province of Alberta, Canada. We estimated vaccine coverage among those aged 60 years or older for 2013, as well as vaccine utilization rates per hundred thousand population over the period 2009 - 2013. We explored for factors associated with HZV dispensing rates.

METHODS

We used administrative data from the Alberta Pharmaceutical Information Network (PIN) database to identify unique persons for whom HZV had been dispensed from community pharmacies over 2009 - 2013. PIN data were also used to estimate the pharmacy/population ratios for rural and urban Alberta over the period. Denominators for rates were estimated using mid-year population estimates from the Alberta Health Care Insurance Plan Registry. Income quintile data were estimated from the 2006 Census of Canada. Crude, age, sex, geographic (rural vs. urban), income-quintile and year specific rates of HZV vaccine dispensing were estimated per 100,000 population. Rates were adjusted for pharmacy/population ratio. Vaccine coverage for persons aged 60 years or older was estimated using counts of all unique persons for whom the vaccine was dispensed over the period in the numerator and a 2013 mid- year population denominator.

RESULTS

HZV dispensing rates rose annually from 2009 - 2013. Vaccine coverage was estimated to be 8.4% among persons aged 60 years or older. Rates of dispensing were highest for persons aged 60-69 years and were higher for females than males and for persons from higher compared to lower income quintiles. Dispensing rates were lower for rural than for urban residents. About 2% of vaccine was dispensed for persons aged less than 50 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of HZV dispensing are increasing rapidly in Alberta despite a lack of public funding. A small proportion of the vaccine may be dispensed off-label.

Risk of febrile seizures after first dose of measles-mumps-rubella-varicella vaccine: a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The combination measles-mumps-rubella-varicella (MMRV) vaccine currently used in Canada (Priorix-Tetra) may increase the risk of febrile seizures relative to the separate vaccines (MMR and varicella) previously administered. We determined the risk of febrile seizure after the first dose of MMRV, as well as any additional risk for children at high risk for seizures because of pre-existing medical conditions.

METHODS

In this retrospective, population-based cohort study, we compared the risk of seizures after the first dose of MMRV with the risk after same-day administration of separate MMR and varicella vaccines (MMR+V) in children 12 to 23 months of age in the province of Alberta. We deterministically linked vaccination data to health service utilization data for seizures. We used Poisson regression, with adjustment for age and calendar year, to determine the risk for the full cohort and for high-risk children.

RESULTS

The risk of seizures 7 to 10 days after vaccination was twice as high with MMRV as with MMR+V (relative risk [RR] 1.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.30-3.05). The excess absolute risk of seizures was 3.52 seizures per 10 000 doses of MMRV relative to MMR+V. In high-risk children, the risk was not differentially higher for MMRV (RR 1.30, 95% CI 0.60-2.79).

INTERPRETATION

Despite an increased risk of febrile seizures following MMRV (compared with MMR+V), the absolute level of risk was small. Policy-makers need to balance these findings with the potential benefits of administering the combination vaccine or determine whether the choice of vaccine rests with clinicians and/or parents.

Systematic review of incidence and complications of herpes zoster: towards a global perspective

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to characterise the incidence rates of herpes zoster (HZ), also known as shingles, and risk of complications across the world.

DESIGN

We systematically reviewed studies examining the incidence rates of HZ, temporal trends of HZ, the risk of complications including postherpetic neuralgia (PHN) and HZ-associated hospitalisation and mortality rates in the general population. The literature search was conducted using PubMed, EMBASE and the WHO library up to December 2013.

RESULTS

We included 130 studies conducted in 26 countries. The incidence rate of HZ ranged between 3 and 5/1000 person-years in North America, Europe and Asia-Pacific, based on studies using prospective surveillance, electronic medical record data or administrative data with medical record review. A temporal increase in the incidence of HZ was reported in the past several decades across seven countries, often occurring before the introduction of varicella vaccination programmes. The risk of developing PHN varied from 5% to more than 30%, depending on the type of study design, age distribution of study populations and definition. More than 30% of patients with PHN experienced persistent pain for more than 1 year. The risk of recurrence of HZ ranged from 1% to 6%, with long-term follow-up studies showing higher risk (5-6%). Hospitalisation rates ranged from 2 to 25/100 000 person-years, with higher rates among elderly populations.

CONCLUSIONS

HZ is a significant global health burden that is expected to increase as the population ages. Future research with rigorous methods is important.