Waning vaccine protection against influenza A (H3N2) illness in children and older adults during a single season

Reduced effectiveness of repeat influenza vaccination: distinguishing among within-season waning, recent clinical infection, and subclinical infection

Studies have reported that prior-season influenza vaccination is associated with higher risk of clinical influenza infection among vaccinees. This effect might arise from incomplete consideration of within-season waning and recent infection. Using data from the US Flu Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) Network (2011-2012 to 2018-2019 seasons), we found that repeat vaccinees were vaccinated earlier in a season by one week. After accounting for waning VE, repeat vaccinees were still more likely to test positive for A(H3N2) (OR=1.11, 95%CI:1.02-1.21) but not for influenza B or A(H1N1). We found that clinical infection influenced individuals' decision to vaccinate in the following season while protecting against clinical infection of the same (sub)type. However, adjusting for recent clinical infections did not strongly influence the estimated effect of prior-season vaccination. In contrast, we found that adjusting for subclinical infection could theoretically attenuate this effect. Additional investigation is needed to determine the impact of subclinical infections on VE.

Immunogenicity of Enhanced Influenza Vaccines Against Mismatched Influenza Strains in Older Adults: A Review of Randomized Controlled Trials

Antigenic drift is a major driver of viral evolution and a primary reason why influenza vaccines must be reformulated annually. Mismatch between vaccine and circulating viral strains negatively affects vaccine effectiveness and often contributes to higher rates of influenza-related hospitalizations and deaths, particularly in years dominated by A(H3N2). Several countries recommend enhanced influenza vaccines for older adults, who are at the highest risk of severe influenza complications and mortality. The immunogenicity of enhanced vaccines against heterologous A(H3N2) strains has been examined in nine studies to date. In six studies, an enhanced, licensed MF59-adjuvanted trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (aIIV3) consistently increased heterologous antibody titers relative to standard influenza vaccine, with evidence of a broad heterologous immune response across multiple genetic clades. In one study, licensed high-dose trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (HD-IIV3) also induced higher heterologous antibody titers than standard influenza vaccine. In a study comparing a higher dose licensed quadrivalent recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV4) with HD-IIV3 and aIIV3, no significant differences in antibody titers against a heterologous strain were observed, although seroconversion rates were higher with RIV4 versus comparators. With the unmet medical need for improved influenza vaccines, the paucity of studies especially with enhanced vaccines covering mismatched strains highlights a need for further investigation of cross-protection in older adults.

Optimal timing of influenza vaccination in young children: population based cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess optimal timing of influenza vaccination in young children.

DESIGN

Population based cohort study.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Commercially insured children aged 2-5 years who were vaccinated against influenza during 2011-18.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Rates of diagnosis of influenza among children who were vaccinated against influenza, by birth month.

RESULTS

Overall, 819 223 children aged 2-5 received influenza vaccination. Children vaccinated in November and December were least likely to have a diagnosis of influenza, a finding that may be confounded by unmeasured factors that influence the timing of vaccination and risk of influenza. Vaccination commonly occurred on days of preventive care visits and during birth months. Children born in October were disproportionately vaccinated in October and were, on average, vaccinated later than children born in August and earlier than those born in December. Children born in October had the lowest rate of influenza diagnosis (for example, 2.7% (6016/224 540) versus 3.0% (6462/212 622) for those born in August; adjusted odds ratio 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 0.92).

CONCLUSIONS

In a quasi-experimental analysis of young children vaccinated against influenza, birth month was associated with the timing of vaccination through its influence on the timing of preventive care visits. Children born in October were most likely to be vaccinated in October and least likely to have a diagnosis of influenza, consistent with recommendations promoting October vaccination.

Influenza vaccination allocation in tropical settings under constrained resources

Influenza virus seasonality, synchronicity, and vaccine supply differ substantially between temperate and tropical settings, and optimal vaccination strategy may differ on this basis. Most national vaccine recommendations focus on high-risk groups, elderly populations, and healthcare workers despite previous analyses demonstrating broad benefits to vaccinating younger high-contact age groups. Here, we parameterized an age-structured non-seasonal asynchronous epidemiological model of influenza virus transmission for a tropical low-income setting. We evaluated timing and age allocation of vaccines across vaccine supplies ranging from 10% to 90% using decade-based age groups. Year-round vaccination was beneficial when comparing to vaccination strategies focused on a particular time of year. When targeting a single age-group for vaccine prioritization, maximum vaccine allocation to the 10-19 high-contact age group minimized annual influenza mortality for all but one vaccine supply. When evaluating across all possible age allocations, optimal strategies always allocated a plurality of vaccines to school-age children (10-19). The converse however was not true as not all strategies allocating a plurality to children aged 10-19 minimized mortality. Allocating a high proportion of vaccine supply to the 10-19 age group is necessary but not sufficient to minimize annual mortality as distribution of remaining vaccine doses to other age groups also needs to be optimized. Strategies focusing on indirect benefits (vaccinating children) showed higher variance in mortality outcomes than strategies focusing on direct benefits (vaccinating the elderly). However, the indirect benefit approaches showed lower mean mortality and lower minimum mortality than vaccination focused on the elderly.

Measuring waning protection from seasonal influenza vaccination during nine influenza seasons, Ontario, Canada, 2010/11 to 2018/19

BackgroundWaning immunity from seasonal influenza vaccination can cause suboptimal protection during peak influenza activity. However, vaccine effectiveness studies assessing waning immunity using vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals are subject to biases.AimWe examined the association between time since vaccination and laboratory-confirmed influenza to assess the change in influenza vaccine protection over time.MethodsUsing linked laboratory and health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, we identified community-dwelling individuals aged ≥ 6 months who received an influenza vaccine before being tested for influenza by RT-PCR during the 2010/11 to 2018/19 influenza seasons. We estimated the adjusted odds ratio (aOR) for laboratory-confirmed influenza by time since vaccination (categorised into intervals) and for every 28 days.ResultsThere were 53,065 individuals who were vaccinated before testing for influenza, with 10,264 (19%) influenza-positive cases. The odds of influenza increased from 1.05 (95% CI: 0.91-1.22) at 42-69 days after vaccination and peaked at 1.27 (95% CI: 1.04-1.55) at 126-153 days when compared with the reference interval (14-41 days). This corresponded to 1.09-times increased odds of influenza every 28 days (aOR = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.04-1.15). Individuals aged 18-64 years showed the greatest decline in protection against influenza A(H1N1) (aORper 28 days = 1.26; 95% CI: 0.97-1.64), whereas for individuals aged ≥ 65 years, it was against influenza A(H3N2) (aORper 28 days = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.08-1.33). We did not observe evidence of waning vaccine protection for individuals aged < 18 years.ConclusionsInfluenza vaccine protection wanes during an influenza season. Understanding the optimal timing of vaccination could ensure robust protection during seasonal influenza activity.

Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation

During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons. From measurements of antibody levels from serum samples collected each year from 2017 to 2021, we show that the rate of waning of antibody titres against influenza virus during the pandemic was smaller than assumed in predictive models. Taken together, these results partially explain why the re-emergence of seasonal influenza virus epidemics was less dramatic than anticipated and suggest that influenza virus epidemic dynamics are not currently amenable to multi-season prediction.

Waning intra-season vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H3N2) underlines the need for more durable protection

BACKGROUND

The question of whether influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) wanes over the winter season is still open and some contradictory findings have been reported. This study investigated the possible decline in protection provided by the available influenza vaccines.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

An individual-level pooled analysis of six test-negative case-control studies conducted in Italy between the 2018/2019 and 2022/2023 seasons was performed. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to estimate weekly change in the odds of testing positive for influenza 14 days after vaccination.

RESULTS

Of 6490 patients included, 1633 tested positive for influenza. Each week that had elapsed since vaccination was associated with an increase in the odds of testing positive for any influenza (4.9%; 95% CI: 2.0-8.0%) and for A(H3N2) (6.5%; 95% CI: 2.9-10.3%). This decline in VE was, however, significant only in children and older adults. A similar increase in the odds of testing positive was seen when the dataset was restricted to vaccinees only. Conversely, VE waning was less evident for A(H1N1)pdm09 or B strains.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant waning of VE, especially against influenza A(H3N2), may be one of the factors associated with suboptimal end-of-season VE. Next-generation vaccines should provide more durable protection against A(H3N2).

Real world evidence for public health decision-making on vaccination policies: perspectives from an expert roundtable

INTRODUCTION

Influenza causes significant morbidity and mortality, but influenza vaccine uptake remains below most countries' targets. Vaccine policy recommendations vary, as do procedures for reviewing and appraising the evidence.

AREAS COVERED

During a series of roundtable discussions, we reviewed procedures and methodologies used by health ministries in four European countries to inform vaccine recommendations. We review the type of evidence currently recommended by each health ministry and the range of approaches toward considering randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and real-world evidence (RWE) studies when setting influenza vaccine recommendations.

EXPERT OPINION

Influenza vaccine recommendations should be based on data from both RCTs and RWE studies of efficacy, effectiveness, and safety. Such data should be considered alongside health-economic, cost-effectiveness, and budgetary factors. Although RCT data are more robust and less prone to bias, well-designed RWE studies permit timely evaluation of vaccine benefits, effectiveness comparisons over multiple seasons in large populations, and detection of rare adverse events, under real-world conditions. Given the variability of vaccine effectiveness due to influenza virus mutations and increasing diversification of influenza vaccines, we argue that consideration of both RWE and RCT evidence is the best approach to more nuanced and timely updates of influenza vaccine recommendations.

The NFκB signaling system in the generation of B-cell subsets: from germinal center B cells to memory B cells and plasma cells

Memory B cells and antibody-secreting cells are the two prime effector B cell populations that drive infection- and vaccine-induced long-term antibody-mediated immunity. The antibody-mediated immunity mostly relies on the formation of specialized structures within secondary lymphoid organs, called germinal centers (GCs), that facilitate the interactions between B cells, T cells, and antigen-presenting cells. Antigen-activated B cells may proliferate and differentiate into GC-independent plasmablasts and memory B cells or differentiate into GC B cells. The GC B cells undergo proliferation coupled to somatic hypermutation of their immunoglobulin genes for antibody affinity maturation. Subsequently, affinity mature GC B cells differentiate into GC-dependent plasma cells and memory B cells. Here, we review how the NFκB signaling system controls B cell proliferation and the generation of GC B cells, plasmablasts/plasma cells, and memory B cells. We also identify and discuss some important unanswered questions in this connection.

Recommendations for Prevention and Control of Influenza in Children, 2023-2024

This technical report accompanies the recommendations of the American Academy of Pediatrics for the routine use of influenza vaccine and antiviral medications in the prevention and treatment of influenza in children during the 2023-2024 season. The rationale for the American Academy of Pediatrics recommendation for annual influenza vaccination of all children without medical contraindications starting at 6 months of age is provided. Influenza vaccination is an important strategy for protecting children and the broader community against influenza. This technical report summarizes recent influenza seasons, morbidity and mortality in children, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccination coverage, and provides detailed guidance on vaccine storage, administration, and implementation. The report also provides a brief background on inactivated and live-attenuated influenza vaccines, available vaccines this season, vaccination during pregnancy and breastfeeding, diagnostic testing for influenza, and antiviral medications for treatment and chemoprophylaxis. Strategies to promote vaccine uptake are emphasized.

Generation of antigen-specific memory CD4 T cells by heterologous immunization enhances the magnitude of the germinal center response upon influenza infection

Current influenza vaccine strategies have yet to overcome significant obstacles, including rapid antigenic drift of seasonal influenza viruses, in generating efficacious long-term humoral immunity. Due to the necessity of germinal center formation in generating long-lived high affinity antibodies, the germinal center has increasingly become a target for the development of novel or improvement of less-efficacious vaccines. However, there remains a major gap in current influenza research to effectively target T follicular helper cells during vaccination to alter the germinal center reaction. In this study, we used a heterologous infection or immunization priming strategy to seed an antigen-specific memory CD4+ T cell pool prior to influenza infection in mice to evaluate the effect of recalled memory T follicular helper cells in increased help to influenza-specific primary B cells and enhanced generation of neutralizing antibodies. We found that heterologous priming with intranasal infection with acute lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) or intramuscular immunization with adjuvanted recombinant LCMV glycoprotein induced increased antigen-specific effector CD4+ T and B cellular responses following infection with a recombinant influenza strain that expresses LCMV glycoprotein. Heterologously primed mice had increased expansion of secondary Th1 and Tfh cell subsets, including increased CD4+ TRM cells in the lung. However, the early enhancement of the germinal center cellular response following influenza infection did not impact influenza-specific antibody generation or B cell repertoires compared to primary influenza infection. Overall, our study suggests that while heterologous infection/immunization priming of CD4+ T cells is able to enhance the early germinal center reaction, further studies to understand how to target the germinal center and CD4+ T cells specifically to increase long-lived antiviral humoral immunity are needed.

Prevention and Control of Seasonal Influenza with Vaccines: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices — United States, 2023–24 Influenza Season

This report updates the 2022–23 recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) concerning the use of seasonal influenza vaccines in the United States (

MMWR Recomm Rep 2022;71[No. RR-1]:1–28). Routine annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all persons aged ≥6 months who do not have contraindications. All seasonal influenza vaccines expected to be available in the United States for the 2023–24 season are quadrivalent, containing hemagglutinin (HA) derived from one influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, one influenza A(H3N2) virus, one influenza B/Victoria lineage virus, and one influenza B/Yamagata lineage virus. Inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV4s), recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV4), and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV4) are expected to be available.

For most persons who need only 1 dose of influenza vaccine for the season, vaccination should ideally be offered during September or October. However, vaccination should continue after October and throughout the season as long as influenza viruses are circulating and unexpired vaccine is available. Influenza vaccines might be available as early as July or August, but for most adults (particularly adults aged ≥65 years) and for pregnant persons in the first or second trimester, vaccination during July and August should be avoided unless there is concern that vaccination later in the season might not be possible. Certain children aged 6 months through 8 years need 2 doses; these children should receive the first dose as soon as possible after vaccine is available, including during July and August. Vaccination during July and August can be considered for children of any age who need only 1 dose for the season and for pregnant persons who are in the third trimester during these months if vaccine is available

ACIP recommends that all persons aged ≥6 months who do not have contraindications receive a licensed and age-appropriate seasonal influenza vaccine. With the exception of vaccination for adults aged ≥65 years, ACIP makes no preferential recommendation for a specific vaccine when more than one licensed, recommended, and age-appropriate vaccine is available. ACIP recommends that adults aged ≥65 years preferentially receive any one of the following higher dose or adjuvanted influenza vaccines: quadrivalent high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (HD-IIV4), quadrivalent recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV4), or quadrivalent adjuvanted inactivated influenza vaccine (aIIV4). If none of these three vaccines is available at an opportunity for vaccine administration, then any other age-appropriate influenza vaccine should be used

Primary updates to this report include the following two topics: 1) the composition of 2023–24 U.S. seasonal influenza vaccines and 2) updated recommendations regarding influenza vaccination of persons with egg allergy. First, the composition of 2023–24 U.S. influenza vaccines includes an update to the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 component. U.S.-licensed influenza vaccines will contain HA derived from 1) an influenza A/Victoria/4897/2022 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus (for egg-based vaccines) or an influenza A/Wisconsin/67/2022 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus (for cell culture-based and recombinant vaccines); 2) an influenza A/Darwin/9/2021 (H3N2)-like virus (for egg-based vaccines) or an influenza A/Darwin/6/2021 (H3N2)-like virus (for cell culture-based and recombinant vaccines); 3) an influenza B/Austria/1359417/2021 (Victoria lineage)-like virus; and 4) an influenza B/Phuket/3073/2013 (Yamagata lineage)-like virus. Second, ACIP recommends that all persons aged ≥6 months with egg allergy should receive influenza vaccine. Any influenza vaccine (egg based or nonegg based) that is otherwise appropriate for the recipient’s age and health status can be used. It is no longer recommended that persons who have had an allergic reaction to egg involving symptoms other than urticaria should be vaccinated in an inpatient or outpatient medical setting supervised by a health care provider who is able to recognize and manage severe allergic reactions if an egg-based vaccine is used. Egg allergy alone necessitates no additional safety measures for influenza vaccination beyond those recommended for any recipient of any vaccine, regardless of severity of previous reaction to egg. All vaccines should be administered in settings in which personnel and equipment needed for rapid recognition and treatment of acute hypersensitivity reactions are available

This report focuses on recommendations for the use of vaccines for the prevention and control of seasonal influenza during the 2023–24 influenza season in the United States. A brief summary of the recommendations and a link to the most recent Background Document containing additional information are available at

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/acip-recs/vacc-specific/flu.html . These recommendations apply to U.S.-licensed influenza vaccines used according to Food and Drug Administration–licensed indications. Updates and other information are available from CDC’s influenza website ( https://www.cdc.gov/flu ). Vaccination and health care providers should check this site periodically for additional information.

Interseason waning of vaccine-induced hemagglutination inhibition antibody titers and contributing factors to pre-existing humoral immunity against influenza in community-dwelling older adults 75 years and older

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza causes significant morbidity and mortality with a disproportionately high disease burden in older adults. Strain-specific hemagglutination-inhibition (HAI) antibody titer is a well-established measure of humoral immunity against influenza and pre-vaccination HAI titer is a valuable indicator of pre-existing humoral immunity at the beginning of each influenza season in highly vaccinated older adults. While vaccine-induced HAI antibody titers are known to wane over time, accurate assessment of their interseason waning has been challenging. This is because pre-vaccination HAI titers are routinely measured using current season vaccine strain antigens instead of the prior season vaccines with which individuals were immunized; as such, they do not accurately represent residual antibody titers from prior season vaccination. This study took advantage of available pre-vaccination HAI titers measured using both current and prior season vaccine strain antigens in a longitudinal influenza immunization study with participants enrolled for multiple consecutive influenza seasons from 2014 through 2017. Influenza A virus (IAV) H3N2 and influenza B virus (IBV) strains in the vaccine formula changed in 2015 and again in 2016 season. IAV H1N1 vaccine strain remained the same from 2014 through 2016 seasons, but changed in 2017. We also investigated factors contributing to pre-existing humoral immunity.

RESULTS

Interseason waning of HAI titers was evident, but rates of waning varied among vaccine strains and study seasons, from 18% (p = .43) to 61% (p < .01). Rates of waning were noticeably greater when pre-vaccination HAI titers were measured by the routine approach, i.e., using current season vaccine strain antigens, from 33% (p = .12) to 83% (p < .01), adjusting for age at prior study season, sex, race, and education. This was largely because the routinely measured pre-vaccination HAI titers underrepresented residual HAI titers from prior season vaccinations. Moreover, interseason antibody waning and prior season post-vaccination HAI titers had significant and independent associations with pre-vaccination HAI titers.

CONCLUSIONS

The routinely measured pre-vaccination HAI titer overestimates interseason HAI antibody waning as it underestimates residual antibody titers from prior season vaccination when virus strains in the vaccine formula change. Moreover, interseason antibody waning and prior season post-vaccination HAI titers independently contribute to pre-existing humoral immunity in this highly vaccinated, community-dwelling older adult population.

Estimating Waning of Vaccine Effectiveness: A Simulation Study

BACKGROUND

Developing accurate and reliable methods to estimate vaccine protection is a key goal in immunology and public health. While several statistical methods have been proposed, their potential inaccuracy in capturing fast intraseasonal waning of vaccine-induced protection needs to be rigorously investigated.

METHODS

To compare statistical methods for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE), we generated simulated data using a multiscale, agent-based model of an epidemic with an acute viral infection and differing extents of VE waning. We apply a previously proposed framework for VE measures based on the observational data richness to assess changes of vaccine-induced protection over time.

RESULTS

While VE measures based on hard-to-collect information (eg, the exact timing of exposures) were accurate, usually VE studies rely on time-to-infection data and the Cox proportional hazards model. We found that its extension using scaled Schoenfeld residuals, previously proposed for capturing VE waning, was unreliable in capturing both the degree of waning and its functional form and identified the mathematical factors contributing to this unreliability. We showed that partitioning time and including a time-vaccine interaction term in the Cox model significantly improved estimation of VE waning, even in the case of dramatic, rapid waning. We also proposed how to optimize the partitioning scheme.

CONCLUSIONS

While appropriate for rejecting the null hypothesis of no waning, scaled Schoenfeld residuals are unreliable for estimating the degree of waning. We propose a Cox-model-based method with a time-vaccine interaction term and further optimization of partitioning time. These findings may guide future analysis of VE waning data.

Does prior vaccination affect the immune response to seasonal influenza vaccination among older adults? Findings from a prospective cohort study in a Northeastern Province of Thailand

BACKGROUND

We measured the immunogenicity of seasonal trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV3) among older Thai adults and the effect of one-year prior vaccination status on immune responses.

METHOD

Adults aged ≥65 years (n = 370) were vaccinated with Southern Hemisphere IIV3 in 2015. Hemagglutination inhibition assays were performed using goose red blood cells on sera collected from the participants at baseline and after 1, 6, and 12 months of vaccination. Prior year vaccination (in 2014) was verified with the national health security office database. We analyzed the associations between prior vaccination and geometric mean titers (GMT) at each time point using generalized linear regression on logged transformed titers, and seroprotection and seroconversion using Log-binomial regression.

RESULTS

At baseline, previously vaccinated participants (n = 203) had a significantly higher GMT and seroprotection against all three influenza strains than those previously unvaccinated (n = 167) (all p-values <0.001). Seroprotection rates were similar after one month in both groups for A(H1N1)pdm09 (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 1.10, 95% CI 0.97-1.25), and A(H3N2) (aRR 1.08, 95% CI 0.87-1.33), but higher in previously vaccinated persons for B (aRR 1.20, 95% CI 1.08-1.32). At 12 months, 50% or more had seroprotection in previously vaccinated group with no difference between previously vaccinated or unvaccinated persons. Seroconversion was lower in the previously vaccinated group for A(H1N1)pdm09 (aRR 0.62, 95% CI 0.43-0.89), but did not differ between the two groups for A(H3N2) (aRR 0.94, 95% CI 0.69-1.28) and B (aRR 0.85, 95% CI 0.60-1.20).

CONCLUSION

Influenza vaccination elicited good humoral response in older Thai adults. While seroconversion seemed attenuated in persons previously vaccinated for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 (the only vaccine strain not to change), this was not apparent for influenza A(H3N2) and B, and prior vaccination was not associated with any inhibition in seroprotection.

Broadly Protective Neuraminidase-Based Influenza Vaccines and Monoclonal Antibodies: Target Epitopes and Mechanisms of Action

Neuraminidase (NA) is an important surface protein on influenza virions, playing an essential role in the viral life cycle and being a key target of the immune system. Despite the importance of NA-based immunity, current vaccines are focused on the hemagglutinin (HA) protein as the target for protective antibodies, and the amount of NA is not standardized in virion-based vaccines. Antibodies targeting NA are predominantly protective, reducing infection severity and viral shedding. Recently, NA-specific monoclonal antibodies have been characterized, and their target epitopes have been identified. This review summarizes the characteristics of NA, NA-specific antibodies, the mechanism of NA inhibition, and the recent efforts towards developing NA-based and NA-incorporating influenza vaccines.

Potential impacts of prolonged absence of influenza virus circulation on subsequent epidemics

Background

During the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the circulation of seasonal influenza viruses was unprecedentedly low. This led to concerns that the lack of immune stimulation to influenza viruses combined with waning antibody titres could lead to increased susceptibility to influenza in subsequent seasons, resulting in larger and more severe epidemics.

Methods

We analyzed historical influenza virus epidemiological data from 2003-2019 to assess the historical frequency of near-absence of seasonal influenza virus circulation and its impact on the size and severity of subsequent epidemics. Additionally, we measured haemagglutination inhibition-based antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses using longitudinal serum samples from 165 healthy adults, collected before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, and estimated how antibody titres against seasonal influenza waned during the first two years of the pandemic.

Findings

Low country-level prevalence of influenza virus (sub)types over one or more years occurred frequently before the COVID-19 pandemic and had relatively small impacts on subsequent epidemic size and severity. Additionally, antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses waned negligibly during the first two years of the pandemic.

Interpretation

The commonly held notion that lulls in influenza virus circulation, as observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, will lead to larger and/or more severe subsequent epidemics might not be fully warranted, and it is likely that post-lull seasons will be similar in size and severity to pre-lull seasons.

Funding

European Research Council, Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research, Royal Dutch Academy of Sciences, Public Health Service of Amsterdam.

Research in context

Evidence before this study: During the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, the incidence of seasonal influenza was unusually low, leading to widespread concerns of exceptionally large and/or severe influenza epidemics in the coming years. We searched PubMed and Google Scholar using a combination of search terms (i.e., "seasonal influenza", "SARS-CoV-2", "COVID-19", "low incidence", "waning rates", "immune protection") and critically considered published articles and preprints that studied or reviewed the low incidence of seasonal influenza viruses since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and its potential impact on future seasonal influenza epidemics. We found a substantial body of work describing how influenza virus circulation was reduced during the COVID-19 pandemic, and a number of studies projecting the size of future epidemics, each positing that post-pandemic epidemics are likely to be larger than those observed pre-pandemic. However, it remains unclear to what extent the assumed relationship between accumulated susceptibility and subsequent epidemic size holds, and it remains unknown to what extent antibody levels have waned during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both are potentially crucial for accurate prediction of post-pandemic epidemic sizes.Added value of this study: We find that the relationship between epidemic size and severity and the magnitude of circulation in the preceding season(s) is decidedly more complex than assumed, with the magnitude of influenza circulation in preceding seasons having only limited effects on subsequent epidemic size and severity. Rather, epidemic size and severity are dominated by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in the preceding season(s). Similarly, we find that antibody levels waned only modestly during the COVID-19 pandemic.Implications of all the available evidence: The lack of changes observed in the patterns of measured antibody titres against seasonal influenza viruses in adults and nearly two decades of epidemiological data suggest that post-pandemic epidemic sizes will likely be similar to those observed pre-pandemic, and challenge the commonly held notion that the widespread concern that the near-absence of seasonal influenza virus circulation during the COVID-19 pandemic, or potential future lulls, are likely to result in larger influenza epidemics in subsequent years.

Recommendations for Prevention and Control of Influenza in Children, 2022-2023

This technical report accompanies the recommendations of the American Academy of Pediatrics for the routine use of influenza vaccine and antiviral medications in the prevention and treatment of influenza in children during the 2022 to 2023 season. The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends annual influenza vaccination of all children without medical contraindications starting at 6 months of age. Influenza vaccination is an important strategy for protecting children and the broader community as well as reducing the overall burden of respiratory illnesses when other viruses, including severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2, are cocirculating. This technical report summarizes recent influenza seasons, morbidity and mortality in children, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccination coverage, and provides detailed guidance on storage, administration, and implementation. The report also provides a brief background on inactivated and live attenuated influenza vaccine recommendations, vaccination during pregnancy and breastfeeding, diagnostic testing, and antiviral medications for treatment and chemoprophylaxis. Updated information is provided about the 2021 to 2022 influenza season, influenza immunization rates, the effectiveness of influenza vaccination on hospitalization and mortality, available vaccines, guidance for patients with history of severe allergic reactions to prior influenza vaccinations, and strategies to promote vaccine uptake.

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections, COVID-19 related hospitalizations and deaths, among individuals aged ≥65 years in Portugal: A cohort study based on data-linkage of national registries February-September 2021

Background

Using data from electronic health registries, this study intended to estimate the COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the population aged 65 years and more, against symptomatic infection, COVID-19-related hospitalizations, and deaths, overall and by time since complete vaccination for the period February to September 2021

Methods

We established a cohort of individuals aged 65 and more years old, resident in Portugal mainland, using the National Health Service User number to link eight electronic health registries. Outcomes included were symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections, COVID-19-related hospitalizations or deaths. The exposures of interest were the mRNA vaccines (Comirnaty or Spikevax) and the viral vector (Vaxzevria) vaccine. Complete schedule VE was estimated as one minus the confounder adjusted hazard ratio, for each outcome, estimated by time-dependent Cox regression with time-dependent vaccine exposure.

Results

For the cohort of individuals aged 65–79 years, complete scheme VE against symptomatic infection varied 43 (95%CI: 37–49) (Vaxzevria) and 65 (95%CI: 62–68) (mRNA vaccines). This estimate was slightly lower in the ≥80 years cohort (53, 95%CI: 45–60) for mRNA vaccines). VE against COVID-19 hospitalization varied between 89% (95%CI: 52–94) for Vaxzevria and 95% (95%CI: 93–97) for mRNA vaccines for the cohort aged 65–79 years and was 76% (95%CI: 67–83) for mRNA vaccines in the ≥80 years cohort. High VE against COVID-19-related deaths was estimated, for both vaccine types, 95% and 81 (95%CI:76–86) for the 65–79 years and the ≥80 years cohort, respectively. We observed a significant waning of VE against symptomatic infection, with VE estimates reaching approximately 34% for both vaccine types and cohorts. Significant waning was observed for the COVID-19 hospitalizations in the ≥80 years cohort (decay from 83% (95%CI:68 to 91) 14–41 days to 63% (95%CI:37 to 78) 124 days after mRNA second dose). No significant waning effect was observed for COVID-19-related deaths in the period of follow-up of either cohort.

Conclusions

In a population with a high risk of SARS-CoV-2 complications, we observed higher overall VE estimates against more severe outcomes for both age cohorts when compared to symptomatic infections. Considering the analysis of VE according to time since complete vaccination, the results showed a waning effect for both age cohorts in symptomatic infection and COVID-19 hospitalization for the 80 and more years cohort.

Prevention and Control of Seasonal Influenza with Vaccines: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices - United States, 2022-23 Influenza Season

This report updates the 2021–22 recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) concerning the use of seasonal influenza vaccines in the United States

(MMWR Recomm Rep 2021;70[No. RR-5]:1–24). Routine annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all persons aged ≥6 months who do not have contraindications. For each recipient, a licensed and age-appropriate vaccine should be used.With the exception of vaccination for adults aged ≥65 years, ACIP makes no preferential recommendation for a specific vaccine when more than one licensed, recommended, and age-appropriate vaccine is available. All seasonal influenza vaccines expected to be available in the United States for the 2022–23 season are quadrivalent, containing hemagglutinin (HA) derived from one influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus, one influenza A(H3N2) virus, one influenza B/Victoria lineage virus, and one influenza B/Yamagata lineage virus. Inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV4s), recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV4), and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV4) are expected to be available. Trivalent influenza vaccines are no longer available, but data that involve these vaccines are included for reference.

Influenza vaccines might be available as early as July or August, but for most persons who need only 1 dose of influenza vaccine for the season, vaccination should ideally be offered during September or October. However, vaccination should continue after October and throughout the season as long as influenza viruses are circulating and unexpired vaccine is available. For most adults (particularly adults aged ≥65 years) and for pregnant persons in the first or second trimester, vaccination during July and August should be avoided unless there is concern that vaccination later in the season might not be possible. Certain children aged 6 months through 8 years need 2 doses; these children should receive the first dose as soon as possible after vaccine is available, including during July and August. Vaccination during July and August can be considered for children of any age who need only 1 dose for the season and for pregnant persons who are in the third trimester if vaccine is available during those months

Updates described in this report reflect discussions during public meetings of ACIP that were held on October 20, 2021; January 12, 2022; February 23, 2022; and June 22, 2022. Primary updates to this report include the following three topics: 1) the composition of 2022–23 U.S. seasonal influenza vaccines; 2) updates to the description of influenza vaccines expected to be available for the 2022–23 season, including one influenza vaccine labeling change that occurred after the publication of the 2021–22 ACIP influenza recommendations; and 3) updates to the recommendations concerning vaccination of adults aged ≥65 years. First, the composition of 2022–23 U.S. influenza vaccines includes updates to the influenza A(H3N2) and influenza B/Victoria lineage components. U.S.-licensed influenza vaccines will contain HA derived from an influenza A/Victoria/2570/2019 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus (for egg-based vaccines) or an influenza A/Wisconsin/588/2019 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus (for cell culture–based or recombinant vaccines); an influenza A/Darwin/9/2021 (H3N2)-like virus (for egg-based vaccines) or an influenza A/Darwin/6/2021 (H3N2)-like virus (for cell culture–based or recombinant vaccines); an influenza B/Austria/1359417/2021 (Victoria lineage)-like virus; and an influenza B/Phuket/3073/2013 (Yamagata lineage)-like virus. Second, the approved age indication for the cell culture–based inactivated influenza vaccine, Flucelvax Quadrivalent (ccIIV4), was changed in October 2021 from ≥2 years to ≥6 months. Third, recommendations for vaccination of adults aged ≥65 years have been modified. ACIP recommends that adults aged ≥65 years preferentially receive any one of the following higher dose or adjuvanted influenza vaccines: quadrivalent high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (HD-IIV4), quadrivalent recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV4), or quadrivalent adjuvanted inactivated influenza vaccine (aIIV4). If none of these three vaccines is available at an opportunity for vaccine administration, then any other age-appropriate influenza vaccine should be used

This report focuses on recommendations for the use of vaccines for the prevention and control of seasonal influenza during the 2022–23 influenza season in the United States. A brief summary of the recommendations and a link to the most recent Background Document containing additional information are available at

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/acip-recs/vacc-specific/flu.html. These recommendations apply to U.S.-licensed influenza vaccines used according to Food and Drug Administration–licensed indications. Updates and other information are available from CDC’s influenza website (https://www.cdc.gov/flu). Vaccination and health care providers should check this site periodically for additional information.

Waning Vaccine Protection against Influenza among Department of Defense Adult Beneficiaries in the United States, 2016–2017 through 2019–2020 Influenza Seasons

The objective of this study was to assess inactivated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) by time since vaccination in adults aged ≥ 18 years using a test-negative design. All data were obtained from the US Department of Defense Global Respiratory Pathogen Surveillance Program over four influenza seasons, from 2016–2017 through 2019–2020. Analyses were performed to estimate VE using a generalized linear mixed model with logit link and binomial distribution. The adjusted overall VE against any medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza decreased from 50% (95% confidence interval (CI): 41–58%) in adults vaccinated 14 to 74 days prior to the onset of influenza-like illness (ILI), to 39% (95% CI: 31–47%) in adults vaccinated 75 to 134 days prior to the onset of ILI, then to 17% (95% CI: 0–32%) in adults vaccinated 135 to 194 days prior to the onset of ILI. The pattern and magnitude of VE change with increasing time since vaccination differed by influenza (sub)types. Compared to VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza B, the decrease of VE against influenza A(H3N2) was more pronounced with increasing time since vaccination. In conclusion, based on the analysis of 2536 influenza-positive cases identified from 7058 adults over multiple influenza seasons, the effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccine wanes within 180 days after 14 days of influenza vaccination.

Estimation of Relative Vaccine Effectiveness in Influenza: A Systematic Review of Methodology

BACKGROUND

When new vaccine components or platforms are developed, they will typically need to demonstrate noninferiority or superiority over existing products, resulting in the assessment of relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE). This review aims to identify how rVE evaluation is being performed in studies of influenza to inform a more standardized approach.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Google Scholar, and Web of Science for studies reporting rVE comparing vaccine components, dose, or vaccination schedules. We screened titles, abstracts, full texts, and references to identify relevant articles. We extracted information on the study design, relative comparison made, and the definition and statistical approach used to estimate rVE in each study.

RESULTS

We identified 63 articles assessing rVE in influenza virus. Studies compared multiple vaccine components (n = 38), two or more doses of the same vaccine (n = 17), or vaccination timing or history (n = 9). One study compared a range of vaccine components and doses. Nearly two-thirds of all studies controlled for age, and nearly half for comorbidities, region, and sex. Assessment of 12 studies presenting both absolute and relative effect estimates suggested proportionality in the effects, resulting in implications for the interpretation of rVE effects.

CONCLUSIONS

Approaches to rVE evaluation in practice is highly varied, with improvements in reporting required in many cases. Extensive consideration of methodologic issues relating to rVE is needed, including the stability of estimates and the impact of confounding structure on the validity of rVE estimates.

A Retrospective Test-Negative Case-Control Study to Evaluate Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Preventing Hospitalizations in Children

BACKGROUND

Vaccination is the primary strategy to reduce influenza burden. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) can vary annually depending on circulating strains.

METHODS

We used a test-negative case-control study design to estimate influenza VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalizations among children (aged 6 months-17 years) across 5 influenza seasons in Atlanta, Georgia, from 2012-2013 to 2016-2017. Influenza-positive cases were randomly matched to test-negative controls based on age and influenza season in a 1:1 ratio. We used logistic regression models to compare odds ratios (ORs) of vaccination in cases to controls. We calculated VE as [100% × (1 - adjusted OR)] and computed 95% confidence intervals (CIs) around the estimates.

RESULTS

We identified 14 596 hospitalizations of children who were tested for influenza using the multiplex respiratory molecular panel; influenza infection was detected in 1017 (7.0%). After exclusions, we included 512 influenza-positive cases and 512 influenza-negative controls. The median age was 5.9 years (interquartile range, 2.7-10.3), 497 (48.5%) were female, 567 (55.4%) were non-Hispanic Black, and 654 (63.9%) children were unvaccinated. Influenza A accounted for 370 (72.3%) of 512 cases and predominated during all 5 seasons. The adjusted VE against influenza-related hospitalizations during 2012-2013 to 2016-2017 was 51.3% (95% CI, 34.8% to 63.6%) and varied by season. Influenza VE was 54.7% (95% CI, 37.4% to 67.3%) for influenza A and 37.1% (95% CI, 2.3% to 59.5%) for influenza B.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccination decreased the risk of influenza-related pediatric hospitalizations by >50% across 5 influenza seasons.

Recommendations for Prevention and Control of Influenza in Children, 2021-2022

This technical report accompanies the recommendations of the American Academy of Pediatrics for the routine use of the influenza vaccine and antiviral medications in the prevention and treatment of influenza in children during the 2021-2022 season. Influenza vaccination is an important intervention to protect vulnerable populations and reduce the burden of respiratory illnesses during circulation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, which is expected to continue during this influenza season. In this technical report, we summarize recent influenza seasons, morbidity and mortality in children, vaccine effectiveness, vaccination coverage, and detailed guidance on storage, administration, and implementation. We also provide background on inactivated and live attenuated influenza vaccine recommendations, vaccination during pregnancy and breastfeeding, diagnostic testing, and antiviral medications for treatment and chemoprophylaxis.

Simulating influenza epidemics with waning vaccine immunity

Observational studies indicate that vaccine-induced immunity can decline over time. However, few researchers have incorporated this kind of waning effect into their virus spread models. In this study, we simulate an influenza epidemic that considers the effects of waning immunity by fitting epidemiological models to CDC secondary historical data aggregated on a weekly basis, and derive the transmission rates at which susceptible individuals become infected over the course of the influenza season. Using a system of differential equations, we define four groups of individuals in a population: susceptible, vaccinated, infected, and recovered. We show that a larger number of initially infected individuals might not only bring the influenza season to an end sooner but also reduce the epidemic size. Moreover, any influenza virus that entails a faster recovery rate does not necessarily lead to a smaller epidemic size. We illustrate how simulation helps in understanding the effects of influenza epidemiological model in the presence of waning influenza vaccine immunity.

Prevention and Control of Seasonal Influenza with Vaccines: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, United States, 2021-22 Influenza Season

This report updates the 2020–21 recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) regarding the use of seasonal influenza vaccines in the United States (MMWR Recomm Rep 2020;69[No. RR-8]). Routine annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all persons aged ≥6 months who do not have contraindications. For each recipient, a licensed and age-appropriate vaccine should be used. ACIP makes no preferential recommendation for a specific vaccine when more than one licensed, recommended, and age-appropriate vaccine is available. During the 2021–22 influenza season, the following types of vaccines are expected to be available: inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV4s), recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV4), and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV4).

The 2021–22 influenza season is expected to coincide with continued circulation of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. Influenza vaccination of persons aged ≥6 months to reduce prevalence of illness caused by influenza will reduce symptoms that might be confused with those of COVID-19. Prevention of and reduction in the severity of influenza illness and reduction of outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and intensive care unit admissions through influenza vaccination also could alleviate stress on the U.S. health care system. Guidance for vaccine planning during the pandemic is available at https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pandemic-guidance/index.html. Recommendations for the use of COVID-19 vaccines are available at https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/acip-recs/vacc-specific/covid-19.html, and additional clinical guidance is available at https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/clinical-considerations/covid-19-vaccines-us.html.

Updates described in this report reflect discussions during public meetings of ACIP that were held on October 28, 2020; February 25, 2021; and June 24, 2021. Primary updates to this report include the following six items. First, all seasonal influenza vaccines available in the United States for the 2021–22 season are expected to be quadrivalent. Second, the composition of 2021–22 U.S. influenza vaccines includes updates to the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and influenza A(H3N2) components. U.S.-licensed influenza vaccines will contain hemagglutinin derived from an influenza A/Victoria/2570/2019 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus (for egg-based vaccines) or an influenza A/Wisconsin/588/2019 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus (for cell culture–based and recombinant vaccines), an influenza A/Cambodia/e0826360/2020 (H3N2)-like virus, an influenza B/Washington/02/2019 (Victoria lineage)-like virus, and an influenza B/Phuket/3073/2013 (Yamagata lineage)-like virus. Third, the approved age indication for the cell culture–based inactivated influenza vaccine, Flucelvax Quadrivalent (ccIIV4), has been expanded from ages ≥4 years to ages ≥2 years. Fourth, discussion of administration of influenza vaccines with other vaccines includes considerations for coadministration of influenza vaccines and COVID-19 vaccines. Providers should also consult current ACIP COVID-19 vaccine recommendations and CDC guidance concerning coadministration of these vaccines with influenza vaccines. Vaccines that are given at the same time should be administered in separate anatomic sites. Fifth, guidance concerning timing of influenza vaccination now states that vaccination soon after vaccine becomes available can be considered for pregnant women in the third trimester. As previously recommended, children who need 2 doses (children aged 6 months through 8 years who have never received influenza vaccine or who have not previously received a lifetime total of ≥2 doses) should receive their first dose as soon as possible after vaccine becomes available to allow the second dose (which must be administered ≥4 weeks later) to be received by the end of October. For nonpregnant adults, vaccination in July and August should be avoided unless there is concern that later vaccination might not be possible. Sixth, contraindications and precautions to the use of ccIIV4 and RIV4 have been modified, specifically with regard to persons with a history of severe allergic reaction (e.g., anaphylaxis) to an influenza vaccine. A history of a severe allergic reaction to a previous dose of any egg-based IIV, LAIV, or RIV of any valency is a precaution to use of ccIIV4. A history of a severe allergic reaction to a previous dose of any egg-based IIV, ccIIV, or LAIV of any valency is a precaution to use of RIV4. Use of ccIIV4 and RIV4 in such instances should occur in an inpatient or outpatient medical setting under supervision of a provider who can recognize and manage a severe allergic reaction; providers can also consider consulting with an allergist to help identify the vaccine component responsible for the reaction. For ccIIV4, history of a severe allergic reaction (e.g., anaphylaxis) to any ccIIV of any valency or any component of ccIIV4 is a contraindication to future use of ccIIV4. For RIV4, history of a severe allergic reaction (e.g., anaphylaxis) to any RIV of any valency or any component of RIV4 is a contraindication to future use of RIV4.

This report focuses on recommendations for the use of vaccines for the prevention and control of seasonal influenza during the 2021–22 influenza season in the United States. A brief summary of the recommendations and a link to the most recent Background Document containing additional information are available at https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/acip-recs/vacc-specific/flu.html. These recommendations apply to U.S.-licensed influenza vaccines used according to Food and Drug Administration–licensed indications. Updates and other information are available from CDC’s influenza website (https://www.cdc.gov/flu); vaccination and health care providers should check this site periodically for additional information.

Waning Vaccine Effectiveness Against Influenza-Associated Hospitalizations Among Adults, 2015-2016 to 2018-2019, United States Hospitalized Adult Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network

We observed decreased effectiveness of influenza vaccine with increasing time since vaccination for prevention of influenza A(H3N2), influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, and influenza B/Yamagata-associated hospitalizations among adults. Maximum vaccine effectiveness (VE) was observed shortly after vaccination, followed by an absolute decline in VE of about 8%-9% per month postvaccination.

The Human Antibody Response to the Influenza Virus Neuraminidase Following Infection or Vaccination

The influenza virus neuraminidase (NA) is primarily involved in the release of progeny viruses from infected cells—a critical role for virus replication. Compared to the immuno-dominant hemagglutinin, there are fewer NA subtypes, and NA experiences a slower rate of antigenic drift and reduced immune selection pressure. Furthermore, NA inhibiting antibodies prevent viral egress, thus preventing viral spread. Anti-NA immunity can lessen disease severity, reduce viral shedding, and decrease viral lung titers in humans and various animal models. As a result, there has been a concerted effort to investigate the possibilities of incorporating immunogenic forms of NA as a vaccine antigen in future vaccine formulations. In this review, we discuss NA-based immunity and describe several human NA-specific monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that have a broad range of protection. We also review vaccine platforms that are investigating NA antigens in pre-clinical models and their potential use for next-generation influenza virus vaccines. The evidence presented here supports the inclusion of immunogenic NA in future influenza virus vaccines.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness: New Insights and Challenges

Methods for assessing influenza vaccine efficacy and effectiveness have evolved over six decades. Randomized trials remain the gold standard for licensure, but observational studies are needed for annual assessment of vaccine effectiveness (VE). The test-negative design (TND) has become the de facto standard for these field studies. Patients who seek medical care with acute respiratory illness are tested for influenza, and VE is estimated from the odds of vaccination among influenza cases versus test-negative controls. VE varies across seasons, populations, age groups, and products, but VE estimates are consistently higher for A(H1N1)pdm09 and type B compared with A(H3N2). VE studies are increasingly used in combination with molecular epidemiology to understand the viral and immune system factors that drive clinical efficacy and effectiveness. The emerging field of immunoepidemiology offers the potential to understand complex host-virus interactions that affect vaccine protection, and this knowledge will contribute to universal vaccine development.

Effects of Influenza Vaccination in the United States During the 2018-2019 Influenza Season

BACKGROUND

Multivalent influenza vaccine products provide protection against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), and B lineage viruses. The 2018-2019 influenza season in the United States included prolonged circulation of A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses well-matched to the vaccine strain and A(H3N2) viruses, the majority of which were mismatched to the vaccine. We estimated the number of vaccine-prevented influenza-associated illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths for the season.

METHODS

We used a mathematical model and Monte Carlo algorithm to estimate numbers and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of influenza-associated outcomes prevented by vaccination in the United States. The model incorporated age-specific estimates of national 2018-2019 influenza vaccine coverage, influenza virus-specific vaccine effectiveness from the US Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Network, and disease burden estimated from population-based rates of influenza-associated hospitalizations through the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network.

RESULTS

Influenza vaccination prevented an estimated 4.4 million (95%UI, 3.4 million-7.1 million) illnesses, 2.3 million (95%UI, 1.8 million-3.8 million) medical visits, 58 000 (95%UI, 30 000-156 000) hospitalizations, and 3500 (95%UI, 1000-13 000) deaths due to influenza viruses during the US 2018-2019 influenza season. Vaccination prevented 14% of projected hospitalizations associated with A(H1N1)pdm09 overall and 43% among children aged 6 months-4 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccination averted substantial influenza-associated disease including hospitalizations and deaths in the United States, primarily due to effectiveness against A(H1N1)pdm09. Our findings underscore the value of influenza vaccination, highlighting that vaccines measurably decrease illness and associated healthcare utilization even in a season in which a vaccine component does not match to a circulating virus.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness and Waning Effect in Hospitalized Older Adults. Valencia Region, Spain, 2018/2019 Season

Influenza vaccination is annually recommended for specific populations at risk, such as older adults. We estimated the 2018/2019 influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) overall, by influenza subtype, type of vaccine, and by time elapsed since vaccination among subjects 65 years old or over in a multicenter prospective study in the Valencia Hospital Surveillance Network for the Study of Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses (VAHNSI, Spain). Information about potential confounders was obtained from clinical registries and/or by interviewing patients and vaccination details were only ascertained by registries. A test-negative design was performed in order to estimate IVE. As a result, IVE was estimated at 46% (95% confidence interval (CI): (16%, 66%)), 41% (95% CI: (−34%, 74%)), and 45% (95% CI: (7%, 67%)) against overall influenza, A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2), respectively. An intra-seasonal not relevant waning effect was detected. The IVE for the adjuvanted vaccine in ≥75 years old was 45% (2%, 69%) and for the non-adjuvanted vaccine in 65–74 years old was 59% (−16%, 86%). Thus, our data revealed moderate vaccine effectiveness against influenza A(H3N2) and not significant against A(H1N1)pdm09. Significant protection was conferred by the adjuvanted vaccine to patients ≥75 years old. Moreover, an intra-seasonal not relevant waning effect was detected, and a not significant IVE decreasing trend was observed over time.

Chimeric Hemagglutinin-Based Live-Attenuated Vaccines Confer Durable Protective Immunity against Influenza A Viruses in a Preclinical Ferret Model

Epidemic or pandemic influenza can annually cause significant morbidity and mortality in humans. We developed novel chimeric hemagglutinin (cHA)-based universal influenza virus vaccines, which contain a conserved HA stalk domain from a 2009 pandemic H1N1 (pH1N1) strain combined with globular head domains from avian influenza A viruses. Our previous reports demonstrated that prime-boost sequential immunizations induced robust antibody responses directed toward the conserved HA stalk domain in ferrets. Herein, we further followed vaccinated animals for one year to compare the efficacy and durability of these vaccines in the preclinical ferret model of influenza. Although all cHA-based immunization regimens induced durable HA stalk-specific and heterosubtypic antibody responses in ferrets, sequential immunization with live-attenuated influenza virus vaccines (LAIV-LAIV) conferred the best protection against upper respiratory tract infection by a pH1N1 influenza A virus. The findings from this study suggest that our sequential immunization strategy for a cHA-based universal influenza virus vaccine provides durable protective humoral and cellular immunity against influenza virus infection.

Waning of Influenza Vaccine Protection: Exploring the Trade-offs of Changes in Vaccination Timing Among Older Adults

BACKGROUND

In recent studies of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE), lower effectiveness with increasing time since vaccination was observed, raising the question of optimal vaccination timing. We sought to evaluate the estimated number of influenza-associated hospitalizations among older adults due to potential changes in vaccination timing.

METHODS

Using empirical data and a health state transition model, we estimated change in influenza-associated hospitalizations predicted to occur among the US population aged ≥65 years if vaccination were delayed until October 1. We assumed the vaccination timing, coverage, and effectiveness observed in 2012-2013 as a prototypical influenza season, approximately 7% monthly waning of VE, and that between 0% and 50% of individuals who usually get vaccinated earlier than October failed to get vaccinated. We also assessed change in influenza-associated hospitalizations if vaccination uptake shifted substantially toward August and September.

RESULTS

In a typical season, delaying vaccination until October increased influenza hospitalizations if more than 14% of older adults usually vaccinated in August and September failed to get vaccinated. The consequences of delayed vaccination depended heavily on influenza season timing, rate of waning, and overall VE. A shift toward vaccination in August and September led to, on average, an increase in influenza-associated hospitalizations, but this result was also sensitive to influenza season timing.

CONCLUSIONS

Consequences of delayed vaccination varied widely. Uncertainties about vaccine waning and effects of a delay on vaccine coverage suggest it is premature to change current vaccine recommendations, although it may be prudent to prevent a substantial shift toward early vaccination.

Projecting influenza vaccine effectiveness: A simulation study

The impact of influenza vaccination is largely measured by estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE), which vary in different seasons. Strain mutations and waning immunity present two key mechanisms affecting VE. We sought to quantify the relative effect of these mechanisms by projecting VE and the reduction of illness due to vaccination. We developed a stochastic age-structured agent-based simulation model of influenza transmission dynamics to encapsulate intraseason waning of immunity post-vaccination, and mutation-induced antigenic distance between circulating strains and vaccine strains. Parameterizing the model with published estimates, we projected the temporal and overall VE during an epidemic season, and estimated the reduction of infection for high (70%) and low (30%) vaccine efficacies to reflect the levels of vaccine-induced protection in randomized control trials. Both temporal and overall VE decreased as the attack rate increased, with lower median values for epidemics starting with strains that were antigenically more distant from vaccine strains. We observed a higher rate of temporal decline with considerably lower median values of the overall VE in the presence of intraseason waning of immunity compared with only the antigenic distance effect. The highest benefit of vaccination in preventing influenza infection was achieved at moderate attack rates in the range of 6%-15%. The results show that even when VE is relatively low in the population and almost negligible for older age groups (i.e., 50+ years), vaccination can still prevent significant illness in high-risk individuals; thereby reducing healthcare resource utilization and economic burden. Our study indicates that early vaccination remains an important strategy for alleviating the burden of seasonal influenza. Policy discussions on optimal timing of vaccination to reduce the effect of intraseason waning of immunity should be considered in the context of strain mutations within the epidemic course.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of influenza vaccination during pregnancy in Japan

BACKGROUND

Pregnant women and infants are known as high risk groups for influenza. WHO recommend pregnant women be vaccinated with inactivated influenza vaccine. In Japan, some municipalities started to give subsidy to encourage pregnant women to receive a shot on their own accord, which has made the introduction of seasonal antepartum maternal vaccination program (AMVP) into the routine vaccination list a current topic in health policy and has raised the need to evaluate the value for money of such possibility.

METHODS

We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to evaluate the efficiency of conducting AMVP in Japan. A decision tree model was adopted taking into consideration the duration of single-year vaccine effectiveness for infants and for mothers. The program targeted pregnant women aged 20-49 years old at or over 12 weeks gestation during October 1 through March 30. Estimated probabilities of treatments received due to influenza for pregnant/postpartum women or their infants varied by calendar time, vaccination status, and/or gestational age. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) compared with current no-AMVP from societal perspective was calculated. Transition probabilities, utility weights to estimate quality-adjusted life year (QALY), and disease treatment costs were either calculated or extracted from literature. Costs per vaccination was assumed at ¥3,529/US$32.1.

RESULTS

AMVP reduces disease treatment costs, while the reduction cannot offset the vaccination cost. Incremental QALYs were at 0.00009, among them 84.2% were from infants. ICER was ¥7,779,356/US$70,721 per QALY gained. One-way sensitivity analyses revealed that vaccine effectiveness for infant and costs per shot were the two main key variables affecting the ICER.

CONCLUSION

We found that vaccinating pregnant women with influenza vaccine to prevent unvaccinated infants and pregnant/postpartum women from influenza-associated disease in Japan can be cost-effective from societal perspective, under the WHO-suggested "cost-effective" criteria (1-3 times of GDP).

Mandatory employee vaccination as a strategy for early and comprehensive health care personnel immunization coverage: Experience from 10 influenza seasons

BACKGROUND

Influenza is responsible for thousands of deaths in the United States and presents particular challenges in health care facilities with a greater prevalence of people at increased risk for adverse outcomes. Annual influenza vaccination has long been recommended, and employer policies influence the likelihood health care personnel are immunized.

METHODS

This is a review of vaccination data maintained by a large health care organization to assess the effects of a mandatory health care personnel vaccination policy implemented during 2008-2009. Vaccination rates, timing of immunizations, and requests for medical or religious exemptions were assessed from 2006-2007 to 2017-2018.

RESULTS

The health care personnel vaccination rate was 70% during the influenza season before the mandatory policy was implemented and increased to 98.4% immediately afterward. Vaccination rates exceeded 97% during the subsequent 9 years. Religious and medical exemptions decreased at academic medical centers and remained consistent at community hospitals. Among immunized employees, the peak date for vaccination shifted to late September or early October compared to late October or early November before the mandatory policy.

CONCLUSIONS

Requiring vaccination led to sustained increases in staff vaccination coverage at academic medical centers and community hospitals. The mandatory policy also appeared to encourage earlier vaccination.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Among Children for the 2017-2018 Season

BACKGROUND

The 2017-2018 influenza season was of high severity. Circulating influenza strains change periodically, making it important to determine vaccine effectiveness on an annual basis, especially for susceptible populations. The primary aim of our study was to estimate the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine among children. Secondary aims were to assess the effect of previous season vaccination and intraseasonal waning of immunity.

METHODS

Children 6 months to 17 years of age tested for influenza during the 2017-2018 season were included. Clinical charts were reviewed, and immunization status was confirmed via the Louisiana Immunization Registry. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) was estimated in a test-negative design by comparing vaccination status of influenza-positive vs influenza-negative cases.

RESULTS

A total of 3595 children were included, 26% of whom tested positive for influenza, mostly type A (79%); 15% had received an influenza vaccine prior to illness: 8% among the influenza-positive and 17% among influenza-negative cases (P <.0001). IVE for the 2017-2018 influenza season was 52% overall (95% confidence interval, 38%-62%), 49% for influenza A, and 60% for influenza B. While receiving current year (2017-2018) vaccine had the most effect, receiving the previous year (2016-2017) vaccine had a small benefit and no interference. We found no evidence of waning immunity of the vaccine for the 2017-2018 season.

CONCLUSIONS

IVE was moderate for children. Previous year vaccination had a small but significant benefit and there was no evidence of waning immunity in our cohort. Ongoing national and local surveillance is important to understand the benefit of influenza vaccination.

Prevention and Control of Seasonal Influenza with Vaccines: Recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices - United States, 2020-21 Influenza Season

This report updates the 2019–20 recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) regarding the use of seasonal influenza vaccines in the United States (MMWR Recomm Rep 2019;68[No. RR-3]). Routine annual influenza vaccination is recommended for all persons aged ≥6 months who do not have contraindications. For each recipient, a licensed and age-appropriate vaccine should be used. Inactivated influenza vaccines (IIVs), recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV4), and live attenuated influenza vaccine (LAIV4) are expected to be available. Most influenza vaccines available for the 2020–21 season will be quadrivalent, with the exception of MF59-adjuvanted IIV, which is expected to be available in both quadrivalent and trivalent formulations.

Updates to the recommendations described in this report reflect discussions during public meetings of ACIP held on October 23, 2019; February 26, 2020; and June 24, 2020. Primary updates to this report include the following two items. First, the composition of 2020–21 U.S. influenza vaccines includes updates to the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, influenza A(H3N2), and influenza B/Victoria lineage components. Second, recent licensures of two new influenza vaccines, Fluzone High-Dose Quadrivalent and Fluad Quadrivalent, are discussed. Both new vaccines are licensed for persons aged ≥65 years. Additional changes include updated discussion of contraindications and precautions to influenza vaccination and the accompanying Table, updated discussion concerning use of LAIV4 in the setting of influenza antiviral medication use, and updated recommendations concerning vaccination of persons with egg allergy who receive either cell culture–based IIV4 (ccIIV4) or RIV4.

The 2020–21 influenza season will coincide with the continued or recurrent circulation of SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus associated with coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]). Influenza vaccination of persons aged ≥6 months to reduce prevalence of illness caused by influenza will reduce symptoms that might be confused with those of COVID-19. Prevention of and reduction in the severity of influenza illness and reduction of outpatient illnesses, hospitalizations, and intensive care unit admissions through influenza vaccination also could alleviate stress on the U.S. health care system. Guidance for vaccine planning during the pandemic is available at https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pandemic-guidance/index.html.

This report focuses on recommendations for the use of vaccines for the prevention and control of seasonal influenza during the 2020–21 season in the United States. A brief summary of the recommendations and a link to the most recent Background Document containing additional information are available at https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/hcp/acip-recs/vacc-specific/flu.html. These recommendations apply to U.S.-licensed influenza vaccines used within Food and Drug Administration (FDA)–licensed indications. Updates and other information are available from CDC’s influenza website (https://www.cdc.gov/flu). Vaccination and health care providers should check this site periodically for additional information.

Intraseason Waning of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness

BACKGROUND

In the United States, it is recommended that healthcare providers offer influenza vaccination by October, if possible. However, if the vaccine's effectiveness soon begins to wane, the optimal time for vaccination may be somewhat later. We examined whether the effectiveness of influenza vaccine wanes during the influenza season with increasing time since vaccination.

METHODS

We identified persons who were vaccinated with inactivated influenza vaccine from 1 September 2010 to 31 March 2017 and who were subsequently tested for influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) by a polymerase chain reaction test. Test-confirmed influenza was the primary outcome and days-since-vaccination was the predictor of interest in conditional logistic regression. Models were adjusted for age and conditioned on calendar day and geographic area. RSV was used as a negative-control outcome.

RESULTS

Compared with persons vaccinated 14 to 41 days prior to being tested, persons vaccinated 42 to 69 days prior to being tested had 1.32 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11 to 1.55) times the odds of testing positive for any influenza. The odds ratio (OR) increased linearly by approximately 16% for each additional 28 days since vaccination. The OR was 2.06 (95% CI, 1.69 to 2.51) for persons vaccinated 154 or more days prior to being tested. No evidence of waning was found for RSV.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that effectiveness of inactivated influenza vaccine wanes during the course of a single season. These results may lead to reconsideration of the optimal timing of seasonal influenza vaccination.

End-of-season outbreaks of nosocomial influenza caused by waning vaccine immunity

The waning of vaccine protection may be responsible for outbreaks toward the end of the influenza season. Three of five outbreaks occurred at the beginning of April following an interval of >100 days from the date of vaccination; the reported index case was a nurse or office worker, and >50% of those affected were healthcare workers. The results are consistent with intra-seasonal waning of vaccine immunity that resulted in outbreaks at the end of season.

Early Bird Gets the Flu: What Should Be Done About Waning Intraseasonal Immunity Against Seasonal Influenza?

Recently published studies highlight the growing evidence for waning immunity within a single influenza season among vaccinated individuals. However, the public health efforts to increase vaccination coverage has resulted in earlier administration of vaccines. We find this approach to be suboptimal, as the benefits of early vaccination could be lost during peak months of influenza activity. Immunity generated by influenza vaccines is a complex scientific issue with many contributing factors. We advocate for a nuanced approach to the seasonal vaccine program- one that considers duration of immunity as much as it considers coverage. As we strive for higher rates of vaccination, we must also improve the efficacy of the vaccine and the public health programs that are responsible for distributing and administering the vaccine.

Estimation of the Effectiveness of Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccines by Distinguishing Between Influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 and Influenza A (H3N2) Using Rapid Influenza Diagnostic Tests During the 2018-2019 Season

Objective To estimate the effectiveness of quadrivalent influenza vaccines during the 2018-2019 season for influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 and A (H3N2) in all age groups. Methods A test-negative case-control study was performed. Patients A total of 1,331 participants were divided into 4 groups (younger children: ≤6 years, older children: 7-15 years, younger adults: 16-64 years, and older adults: ≥65 years). Results For all children, the adjusted vaccine effectiveness (VE) was significant against any influenza [41.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 19.7-57.2%)], total A [A (H1N1) pdm09 and (H3N2); 38.3% (95% CI: 15.1-55.1%)], and A [H3N2; 39.8% (95% CI: 13.8-57.9%)]. In younger children, the adjusted VE against any influenza was 44.8% (95% CI: 14.1-64.5%) and against total A was 43.8% (95% CI: 12.5-63.9%). For all adults, the adjusted VE was significant against any influenza was 42.3% (95% CI: 17.9-59.5%); total A, 39.3% (95% CI: 13.5-57.4%); A (H1N1) pdm09, 56.7% (95% CI: 19.1-76.8%); and A (H3N2), 33.2% (95% CI: 1.5-54.6%). In younger adults, the adjusted VE against any influenza was 43.4% (95% CI: 17.3-61.2%), total A, 41.7% (95% CI: 14.4-60.3%); A (H1N1) pdm09, 56.2% (95% CI: 14.9-77.5%); and A (H3N2), 34.5% (95% CI: 0.3-56.9%). In both older children and older adults, no significant VE was observed. Conclusion This study is the first to report on the VE against all types of influenza in all age groups using a rapid influenza diagnostic test. The VE varied with both age and influenza subtype.

Depletion-of-susceptibles Bias in Analyses of Intra-season Waning of Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness

Bias arises in studies of waning vaccine effectiveness when higher-risk individuals are depleted from the at-risk population at different rates between study groups. We examined how this bias arises and how to avoid it. A reanalysis of data from California confirmed a finding of intra-season waning of influenza vaccine effectiveness.

The human antibody response to influenza A virus infection and vaccination

The adaptive immune response to influenza virus infection is multifaceted and complex, involving antibody and cellular responses at both systemic and mucosal levels. Immune responses to natural infection with influenza virus in humans are relatively broad and long-lived, but influenza viruses can escape from these responses over time owing to their high mutation rates and antigenic flexibility. Vaccines are the best available countermeasure against infection, but vaccine effectiveness is low compared with other viral vaccines, and the induced immune response is narrow and short-lived. Furthermore, inactivated influenza virus vaccines focus on the induction of systemic IgG responses but do not effectively induce mucosal IgA responses. Here, I review the differences between natural infection and vaccination in terms of the antibody responses they induce and how these responses protect against future infection. A better understanding of how natural infection induces broad and long-lived immune responses will be key to developing next-generation influenza virus vaccines.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza-associated hospitalization in children: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Vaccination remains the most effective way to prevent influenza infection, albeit vaccine effectiveness (VE) varies by year. Compared to other age groups, children and elderly adults have the highest risk of developing influenza-related complications and requiring hospitalization. During the last years, "test negative design" (TND) studies have been implemented in order to estimate influenza VE. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to summarize the findings of TND studies reporting influenza VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza-related hospitalization in children aged 6 months to 17 years. We searched the PubMed and Embase databases and identified 2615 non-duplicate studies that required detailed review. Among them, 28 met our inclusion criteria and we performed a random-effects meta-analysis using adjusted VE estimates. In our primary analysis, influenza vaccine offered significant protection against any type influenza-related hospitalization (57.48%; 95% CI 49.46-65.49). When we examined influenza VE per type and strain, VE was higher against H1N1 (74.07%; 95% CI: 54.85-93.30) and influenza B (50.87%; 95% CI: 41.75-59.98), and moderate against H3N2 (40.77%; 95% CI: 25.65-55.89). Notably, influenza vaccination offered higher protection in children who were fully vaccinated (61.79%; 95% CI: 54.45-69.13), compared to those who were partially vaccinated (33.91%; 95% CI: 21.12 - 46.69). Also, influenza VE was high in children less than 5 years old (61.71%; 95% CI: 49.29-74.12) as well as in children 6-17 years old (54.37%; 95% CI: 35.14-73.60). In conclusion, in the pediatric population, influenza vaccination offered significant protection against influenza-related hospitalization and complete annual vaccination should be encouraged.

The Use of Test-negative Controls to Monitor Vaccine Effectiveness: A Systematic Review of Methodology

BACKGROUND

The test-negative design is an increasingly popular approach for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) due to its efficiency. This review aims to examine published test-negative design studies of VE and to explore similarities and differences in methodological choices for different diseases and vaccines.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search on PubMed, Web of Science, and Medline, for studies reporting the effectiveness of any vaccines using a test-negative design. We screened titles and abstracts and reviewed full texts to identify relevant articles. We created a standardized form for each included article to extract information on the pathogen of interest, vaccine(s) being evaluated, study setting, clinical case definition, choices of cases and controls, and statistical approaches used to estimate VE.

RESULTS

We identified a total of 348 articles, including studies on VE against influenza virus (n = 253), rotavirus (n = 48), pneumococcus (n = 24), and nine other pathogens. Clinical case definitions used to enroll patients were similar by pathogens of interest but the sets of symptoms that defined them varied substantially. Controls could be those testing negative for the pathogen of interest, those testing positive for nonvaccine type of the pathogen of interest, or a subset of those testing positive for alternative pathogens. Most studies controlled for age, calendar time, and comorbidities.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review highlights similarities and differences in the application of the test-negative design that deserve further examination. If vaccination reduces disease severity in breakthrough infections, particular care must be taken in interpreting vaccine effectiveness estimates from test-negative design studies.

Effects of Influenza Vaccination in the United States During the 2017-2018 Influenza Season

BACKGROUND

The severity of the 2017-2018 influenza season in the United States was high, with influenza A(H3N2) viruses predominating. Here, we report influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) and estimate the number of vaccine-prevented influenza-associated illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths for the 2017-2018 influenza season.

METHODS

We used national age-specific estimates of 2017-2018 influenza vaccine coverage and disease burden. We estimated VE against medically attended reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction-confirmed influenza virus infection in the ambulatory setting using a test-negative design. We used a compartmental model to estimate numbers of influenza-associated outcomes prevented by vaccination.

RESULTS

The VE against outpatient, medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza was 38% (95% confidence interval [CI], 31%-43%), including 22% (95% CI, 12%-31%) against influenza A(H3N2), 62% (95% CI, 50%-71%) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, and 50% (95% CI, 41%-57%) against influenza B. We estimated that influenza vaccination prevented 7.1 million (95% CrI, 5.4 million-9.3 million) illnesses, 3.7 million (95% CrI, 2.8 million-4.9 million) medical visits, 109 000 (95% CrI, 39 000-231 000) hospitalizations, and 8000 (95% credible interval [CrI], 1100-21 000) deaths. Vaccination prevented 10% of expected hospitalizations overall and 41% among young children (6 months-4 years).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite 38% VE, influenza vaccination reduced a substantial burden of influenza-associated illness, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States during the 2017-2018 season. Our results demonstrate the benefit of current influenza vaccination and the need for improved vaccines.