The effect of immunization on measles incidence in the Democratic Republic of Congo: Results from a model of surveillance data

A Successful National and Multipartner Approach to Increase Immunization Coverage: The Democratic Republic of Congo Mashako Plan 2018-2020

BACKGROUND

The immunization system in the Democratic Republic of the Congo faces many challenges, including persistent large-scale outbreaks of polio, measles, and yellow fever; a large number of unvaccinated children for all antigens; minimal and delayed funding; and poor use of immunization data at all levels. In response, the Expanded Programme on Immunization within the Ministry of Health (MOH) collaborated with global partners to develop a revitalization strategy for the routine immunization (RI) system called the Mashako Plan.

MASHAKO PLAN DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT

The Mashako Plan aimed to increase full immunization coverage in children aged 12-23 months by 15 percentage points overall in 9 of 26 provinces within 18 months of implementation. In 2018, we conducted a diagnostic review and identified gaps in coordination, service delivery, vaccine availability, real-time monitoring, and evaluation as key areas for intervention to improve the RI system. Five interventions were then implemented in the 9 identified provinces.

DISCUSSION

According to the 2020 vaccine coverage survey, full immunization coverage increased to 56.4%, and Penta3/DTP3 increased to 71.1% across the Mashako Plan provinces; the initial objective of the plan was reached and additional improvements in key service delivery indicators had been achieved. Increases in immunization sessions held per month, national stock of pentavalent vaccine, and supervision visits conducted demonstrate that simple, measurable changes at all levels can quickly improve immunization systems. Despite short-term improvements in all indicators tracked, challenges remain in vaccine availability, regular funding of immunization activities, systematic provision of immunization services, and ensuring long-term sustainability.

CONCLUSIONS

Strong commitment of MOH staff combined with partner involvement enabled the improvement of the entire system. A simple set of interventions and indicators focused the energy of managers on discrete actions to improve outcomes. Further exploration of the results is necessary to determine the long-term impact and generate all-level engagement for sustainable success in all provinces.

Reassessment of Evidence about Coinfection of Chickenpox and Monkeypox (Mpox) in African Children

In west and central Africa, monkeypox occurs mainly in older children, adolescents and young adults. In two large epidemiology studies of monkeypox outbreaks, the investigators observed a sizable number of coinfections of chickenpox (varicella) and monkeypox. Based on a review of the literature, we propose that chickenpox (human herpesvirus-3 infection) is a risk factor for acquisition of monkeypox infection. Our hypothesis states that the chickenpox skin lesion provides an entry site for the monkeypox virus, which is harbored on a fomite in the environment of the patient. The fact that monkeypox can enter via a scratch or abrasion is a known mechanism of spread for three other poxviruses, including mousepox (ectromelia), orf and molluscum contagiosum. There are many similarities in pathogenesis between certain poxviruses and chickenpox, including a viremia with a cellular stress response leading to high levels of the IL-6 cytokine. One very revealing observation in the two epidemiology studies was that the number of pox as well as the severity of disease in children with chickenpox and monkeypox coinfection was not greater than found in children with monkeypox alone. Based on the above observations, we conclude that, when chickenpox precedes monkeypox, priming of the immune system by the earlier chickenpox infection moderates the severity of the secondary infection with monkeypox. This conclusion also has important public health implications about chickenpox surveillance.

Women's Empowerment and Children's Complete Vaccination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A Cross-Sectional Analysis

(1) Background: The empowerment of women contributes to better child health and wellness. This study aimed to examine the association between women’s empowerment and complete vaccination of children, as recommended in the National Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). (2) Methods: In this cross-sectional study, a principal component analysis (PCA) was conducted on data from the Multiple-Indicator Cluster Survey 6 (MICS-6) to determine the dimensions of women’s empowerment. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between women’s empowerment and complete vaccination of children stratified by household wealth. In total, 3524 women with children aged 12–23 months were included in the study. (3) Results: Women’s empowerment was defined by three dimensions, namely intrinsic agency, enabling resources, and social independence. Children of women with high levels of empowerment had higher odds of complete vaccination, with values of 1.63 (p = 0.002) and 1.59 (p = 0.012) for intrinsic agency and enabling resources of the empowerment, respectively, compared to the children of women with low levels of empowerment; however, social independence failed to be associated with the vaccination status of children. After stratification by household wealth, the OR of complete vaccination was higher in women from middle-income households with high levels of intrinsic agency (OR: 2.35, p = 0.021) compared to women from poor households with high levels of intrinsic agency (OR: 1.92, p = 0.004). (4) Conclusions: Higher levels of women’s empowerment, especially intrinsic agency and enabling resources, were associated with complete vaccination in children in the DRC. Household wealth status influenced the associations. The empowerment of women is crucial in promoting the complete vaccination of children and providing equal access to vaccines.

Measles antibody levels among vaccinated and unvaccinated children 6-59 months of age in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2013-2014

Background

Measles is endemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and 89–94% herd immunity is required to halt its transmission. Much of the World Health Organization African Region, including the DRC, has vaccination coverage below the 95% level required to eliminate measles, heightening concern of inadequate measles immunity.

Methods

We assessed 6706 children aged 6–59 months whose mothers were selected for interview in the 2013–2014 DRC Demographic and Health Survey. History of measles was obtained by maternal report, and classification of children who had measles was completed using maternal recall and measles immunoglobulin G serostatus obtained from a multiplex chemiluminescent automated immunoassay dried blood spot analysis. A logistic regression model was used to identify associations of covariates with measles and seroprotection, and vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated.

Results

Out of our sample, 64% of children were seroprotected. Measles vaccination was associated with protection against measles (OR: 0.15, 95% CI: 0.03, 0.81) when administered to children 12 months of age or older. Vaccination was predictive of seroprotection at all ages. VE was highest (88%) among children 12–24 months of age.

Conclusion

Our results demonstrated lower than expected seroprotection against measles among vaccinated children. Understanding the factors that affect host immunity to measles will aid in developing more efficient and effective immunization programs in DRC.

Geospatial variation in measles vaccine coverage through routine and campaign strategies in Nigeria: Analysis of recent household surveys

Measles vaccination campaigns are conducted regularly in many low- and middle-income countries to boost measles control efforts and accelerate progress towards elimination. National and sometimes first-level administrative division campaign coverage may be estimated through post-campaign coverage surveys (PCCS). However, these large-area estimates mask significant geographic inequities in coverage at more granular levels. Here, we undertake a geospatial analysis of the Nigeria 2017-18 PCCS data to produce coverage estimates at 1 × 1 km resolution and the district level using binomial spatial regression models built on a suite of geospatial covariates and implemented in a Bayesian framework via the INLA-SPDE approach. We investigate the individual and combined performance of the campaign and routine immunization (RI) by mapping various indicators of coverage for children aged 9-59 months. Additionally, we compare estimated coverage before the campaign at 1 × 1 km and the district level with predicted coverage maps produced using other surveys conducted in 2013 and 2016-17. Coverage during the campaign was generally higher and more homogeneous than RI coverage but geospatial differences in the campaign's reach of previously unvaccinated children are shown. Persistent areas of low coverage highlight the need for improved RI performance. The results can help to guide the conduct of future campaigns, improve vaccination monitoring and measles elimination efforts. Moreover, the approaches used here can be readily extended to other countries.

Field challenges to measles elimination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

BACKGROUND

During a measles epidemic, the Ministry of Public Health (MOH) of the Democratic Republic of the Congo conducted supplementary immunization activities (2016-SIA) from August 28-September 3, 2016 throughout Maniema Province. From October 29-November 4, 2016, Médecins Sans Frontières and the MOH conducted a reactive measles vaccination campaign (2016-RVC) targeting children six months to 14 years old in seven health areas with heavy ongoing transmission despite inclusion in the 2016-SIA, and a post-vaccination survey. We report the measles vaccine coverage (VC) and effectiveness (VE) of the 2016-SIA and VC of the 2016-RVC.

METHODS

A cross-sectional VC cluster survey stratified by semi-urban/rural health area and age was conducted. A retrospective cohort analysis of measles reported by the parent/guardian allowed calculation of the cumulative measles incidence according to vaccination status after the 2016-SIA for an estimation of crude and adjusted VE.

RESULTS

In November 2016, 1145 children (6-59 months old) in the semi-urban and 1158 in the rural areas were surveyed. Post-2016-SIA VC (documentation/declaration) was 81.6% (95%CI: 76.5-85.7) in the semi-urban and 91.0% (95%CI: 84.9-94.7) in the rural areas. The reported measles incidence in October among children less than 5 years old was 5.0% for 2016-SIA-vaccinated and 11.2% for 2016-SIA-non-vaccinated in the semi-urban area, and 0.7% for 2016-SIA-vaccinated and 4.0% for 2016-SIA-non-vaccinated in the rural area. Post-2016-SIA VE (adjusted for age, sex) was 53.9% (95%CI: 2.9-78.8) in the semi-urban and 78.7% (95%CI: 0-97.1) in the rural areas. Post 2016-RVC VC (documentation/declaration) was 99.1% (95%CI: 98.2-99.6) in the semi-urban and 98.8% (95%CI: 96.5-99.6) in the rural areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Although our VE estimates could be underestimated due to misclassification of measles status, the VC and VE point estimates of the 2016-SIA in the semi-urban area appear suboptimal, and in combination, could not limit the epidemic. Further research is needed on vaccination strategies adapted to urban contexts.

Estimating the effect of measles vaccination on child growth using 191 DHS from 65 low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Childhood vaccinations reduce morbidity and mortality and are highly cost-effective. They may also protect children from malnutrition and lead to improved child growth. Stunting, wasting and underweight are targets used to monitor progress towards the achievement of the sustainable development goals (SDGs).

METHODS

We use data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) covering the period from 1990 to 2017 to estimate the effect of measles vaccination at 12 months of age on stunting, wasting, and underweight. For causal estimation, we use household- and mother-fixed effects, which allows us to compare outcomes across siblings while controlling for all observed and unobserved confounders that are shared by the siblings, such as household social characteristics and home location. In addition, we control for a wide range of sibling-varying confounders, including sex, age, birth order and mother's age at birth, as well as vaccination with diphtheria-tetanus-polio (DPT), as a broad indicator of general likelihood to receive vaccinations.

RESULTS

Our samples include 347,808 individuals in 132 surveys from 59 countries (for stunting), 430,963 individuals in 190 surveys from 65 countries (for wasting), and 353,520 individuals in 130 surveys from 59 countries (for underweight). Measles vaccination is associated with significantly reduced odds of stunting (odds ratio 0.90 [95% CI 0.86-0.94], p < 0.001) and underweight (odds ratio 0.90 [95% CI 0.86-0.95], p < 0.001). The association with wasting is weaker and not statistically significant (odds ratio 0.95 [95% CI 0.89-1.02], p = 0.143). Our results remain robust across several alternative specifications of our regression models.

CONCLUSIONS

Measles vaccination substantially reduces stunting and underweight among children in low- and middle-income countries. Increasing measles coverage from the current low to near-universal levels would provide a large boost to child growth and the attainment of the SDGs.

Changes in childhood vaccination coverage over time in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Despite increased vaccination rates, the burden, morbidity and mortality associated with vaccine preventable diseases remains high. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), potentially unreliable data and geographically varied program provision call for a better understanding of vaccination coverage and its changes over time at the country and province level. To assess changes in the proportion of children who were fully vaccinated over time in the DRC, vaccination histories for children 12-59 months of age were obtained from both the 2007 and 2013-2014 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS). Changes were assessed, both at the country- and province-levels, to identify potential geographic variations. Vaccination coverage improved 70% between the DHS waves: 26% compared to 44% of 12-59 month-old children met full vaccination criteria in 2007 and 2013-2014, respectively (n2007 = 3032 and n2013-14 = 6619). Similarly, there was an overall trend across both DHS waves where as year of birth increased, so did vaccination coverage. There was geographic variation in immunization changes with most central and eastern provinces increasing in coverage and most northern, western and southern provinces having decreased vaccination coverage at the second time point. Using nationally representative data, we identified significant changes over time in vaccination coverage which may help to inform future policy, interventions and research to improve vaccination rates among children in the DRC. This study is the first of its kind for the population of DRC and provides an important initial step towards better understanding trends in vaccination coverage over time.

Predictors of measles vaccination coverage among children 6-59 months of age in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

BACKGROUND

Measles is a significant contributor to child mortality in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), despite routine immunization programs and supplementary immunization activities (SIA). Further, national immunization coverage levels may hide disparities among certain groups of children, making effective measles control even more challenging. This study describes measles vaccination coverage and reporting methods and identifies predictors of vaccination among children participating in the 2013-2014 DRC Demographic and Health Survey (DHS).

METHODS

We examined vaccination coverage of 6947 children aged 6-59 months. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify predictors of vaccination among children reporting vaccination via dated card in order to identify least reached children. We also assessed spatial distribution of vaccination report type by rural versus urban residence.

RESULTS

Urban children with educated mothers were more likely to be vaccinated (OR = 4.1, 95% CI: 1.6, 10.7) versus children of mothers with no education, as were children in wealthier rural families (OR = 2.9, 95% CI: 1.9, 4.4). At the provincial level, urban areas more frequently reported vaccination via dated card than rural areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Results indicate that, while the overall coverage level of 70% is too low, socioeconomic and geographic disparities also exist which could make some children even less likely to be vaccinated. Dated records of measles vaccination must be increased, and groups of children with the greatest need should be targeted. As access to routine vaccination services is limited in DRC, identifying and targeting under-reached children should be a strategic means of increasing country-wide effective measles control.

Prevalence of Rubella Antibodies Among Children in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

BACKGROUND

While generally mild in children, rubella infection in early pregnancy can lead to miscarriage, fetal death or congenital rubella syndrome. Rubella vaccination is not yet available as a part of routine immunization in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and the burden of infection is unknown.

METHODS

In collaboration with the 2013-2014 DRC Demographic and Health Survey, a serosurvey was carried out to assess population immunity to vaccine-preventable diseases. Dry blood spot samples collected from children 6-59 months of age were processed using the Dynex Technologies Multiplier FLEX chemiluminescent immunoassay platform (Dynex Technologies, Chantilly, VA).

RESULTS

Among the 7195 6- to 59-month-old children, 33% were positive and <1% indeterminate for rubella antibodies in weighted analyses. Seroprevalence was positively associated with age of the child and province, with seropositivity highest in Bandundu (53%) and lowest in Kasai-Oriental (20%). In multivariate analyses, serologic evidence of infection was associated with age of the mother and child, socioeconomic status and geographic location.

CONCLUSIONS

Rubella infection is prevalent among children in the DRC, and while most seroconversion occurs in young children, a significant proportion of children remain at risk and may enter reproductive age susceptible to rubella infection. While not currently in place, implementation of a surveillance program will provide improved estimates of both rubella virus circulation and the burden of congenital rubella syndrome. Such information will play an important role in future policy decisions, vaccine delivery strategies and may provide a basis upon which the effectiveness of rubella antigen introduction may be assessed.

Detecting Ebola with limited laboratory access in the Democratic Republic of Congo: evaluation of a clinical passive surveillance reporting system

BACKGROUND

Ebola virus disease (EVD) can be clinically severe and highly fatal, making surveillance efforts for early disease detection of paramount importance. In areas with limited access to laboratory testing, the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) strategy in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) may be a vital tool in improving outbreak response.

METHODS

Using DRC IDSR data from the nation's four EVD outbreak periods from 2007-2014, we assessed trends of Viral Hemorrhagic Fever (VHF) and EVD differential diagnoses reportable through IDSR. With official case counts from active surveillance of EVD outbreaks, we assessed accuracy of reporting through the IDSR passive surveillance system.

RESULTS

Although the active and passive surveillance represent distinct sets of data, the two were correlated, suggesting that passive surveillance based only on clinical evaluation may be a useful predictor of true cases prior to laboratory confirmation. There were 438 suspect VHF cases reported through the IDSR system and 416 EVD cases officially recorded across the outbreaks examined.

CONCLUSION

Although collected prior to official active surveillance cases, case reporting through the IDSR during the 2007, 2008 and 2012 outbreaks coincided with official EVD epidemic curves. Additionally, all outbreak areas experienced increases in suspected cases for both malaria and typhoid fever during EVD outbreaks, underscoring the importance of training health care workers in recognising EVD differential diagnoses and the potential for co-morbidities.

The geography of measles vaccination in the African Great Lakes region

Expanded access to measles vaccination was among the most successful public health interventions of recent decades. All WHO regions currently target measles elimination by 2020, yet continued measles circulation makes that goal seem elusive. Using Demographic and Health Surveys with generalized additive models, we quantify spatial patterns of measles vaccination in ten contiguous countries in the African Great Lakes region between 2009-2014. Seven countries have 'coldspots' where vaccine coverage is below the WHO target of 80%. Over 14 million children under 5 years of age live in coldspots across the region, and a total of 8-12 million children are unvaccinated. Spatial patterns of vaccination do not map directly onto sub-national administrative units and transnational coldspots exist. Clustering of low vaccination areas may allow for pockets of susceptibility that sustain circulation despite high overall coverage. Targeting at-risk areas and transnational coordination are likely required to eliminate measles in the region.

Evidence of Mumps Infection Among Children in the Democratic Republic of Congo

BACKGROUND

Mumps is an acute viral infection and while the infection is usually mild, complications can lead to permanent sequelae including brain damage and deafness. The burden of mumps is currently unknown the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), we therefore assessed susceptibility to mumps infection among children 6-59 months of age.

METHODS

In collaboration with the 2013-2014 DRC Demographic and Health Survey, we conducted a serosurvey to assess population immunity to vaccine preventable diseases. Dried blood spot samples were collected from children 6 to 59 months of age and processed at the UCLA-DRC laboratory in Kinshasa, DRC using the Dynex Technologies Multiplier FLEX chemiluminescent immunoassay platform (Dynex multiplex assay, Chantilly, VA). Logistic multivariate analyses were used to determine risk factors for mumps seropositivity.

RESULTS

Serologic and survey data were matched for 7195, 6-59 month-old children, among whom 22% were positive and 3% indeterminate for mumps antibodies in weighted analyses. In multivariate analyses, the odds of seropositivity increased with increasing age, female gender, number of children in household, increasing socioeconomic status and province (Kinshasa with the highest odds of positive test result compared with all other provinces).

CONCLUSION

These data suggest that mumps virus is circulating in DRC and risk of exposure increases with age. At present, the introduction of a combined measles-mumps-rubella vaccine remains unlikely, as the capacity to maintain adequate vaccine coverage levels for routine immunization must be improved before additional antigens can be considered for the routine immunization schedule.