Accelerated SARS-CoV-2 intrahost evolution leading to distinct genotypes during chronic infection

The consequences of SARS-CoV-2 within-host persistence

SARS-CoV-2 causes an acute respiratory tract infection that resolves in most people in less than a month. Yet some people with severely weakened immune systems fail to clear the virus, leading to persistent infections with high viral titres in the respiratory tract. In a subset of cases, persistent SARS-CoV-2 replication results in an accelerated accumulation of adaptive mutations that confer escape from neutralizing antibodies and enhance cellular infection. This may lead to the evolution of extensively mutated SARS-CoV-2 variants and introduce an element of chance into the timing of variant evolution, as variant formation may depend on evolution in a single person. Whether long COVID is also caused by persistence of replicating SARS-CoV-2 is controversial. One line of evidence is detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA and proteins in different body compartments long after SARS-CoV-2 infection has cleared from the upper respiratory tract. However, thus far, no replication competent virus has been cultured from individuals with long COVID who are immunocompetent. In this Review, we consider mechanisms of viral persistence, intra-host evolution in persistent infections, the connection of persistent infections with SARS-CoV-2 variants and the possible role of SARS-CoV-2 persistence in long COVID. Understanding persistent infections may therefore resolve much of what is still unclear in COVID-19 pathophysiology, with possible implications for other emerging viruses.

SARS-CoV-2 genomic evolution during a severe and long-lasting omicron infection under antiviral therapy

BACKGROUND

Prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection observed in immunocompromised individuals even in the presence of antiviral treatment provides opportunities for viruses to evolve in immune escape and drug-resistant variants.

CASE PRESENTATION

A 72-year-old male with IgG4-related disease was admitted to the Emergency Department of a city Hospital in Milan and then transferred to Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico in December 2023, due to respiratory distress due to SARS-CoV-2 infection diagnosed in November 2023. After 117 days since the onset of the infection, and two cycles of sotrovimab/remdesivir combined therapy, the clinical improvement allowed the hospital discharge, notwithstanding the persistent SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Fifteen days later, the patient was re-admitted to the hospital due to worsening clinical conditions. After a third cycle of sotrovimab/remdesivir combined therapy prolonged with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, nasopharyngeal load dropped and clinical conditions improved, ending with a successful discharge. SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequences, obtained at six time-points of infection, showed an FL.1.5.1 recombinant form infection and a genetic distance of median (IQR) 0.00052 (0.00041-0.00066) similar to the genetic distance observed among the 43 contemporaneous FL.1.5.1 recombinant forms (p = 0.098). De novo SNPs were observed at all time points, with a peak (n = 70) at day 133 of infection, corresponding to the time of the second hospitalization. Six non-synonymous mutations (three in the RdRp and three in the spike protein, four of them known to be associated with drug resistance) appeared transiently, after the third and fourth course of sotrovimab 500 mg/remdesivir combination. Five de novo SNPs, three of them in the spike protein, were fixed over the long-lasting infection. The spike N856K, associated with reduced fusogenicity and infectivity in Omicron BA.1, was completely replaced by constitutive N at day 136.

CONCLUSIONS

This clinical case confirms the intra-host evolution dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in an immunocompromised, prolonged-infected individual, involving positions associated with drug resistance and fusogenic traits of SARS-CoV-2. These results underscore the importance of the early detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection in immunocompromised individuals, and its rapid containment using highly effective treatment, to limit serious complications and the risk of new and potentially concerning viral variants emergence.

Intra-host variability of SARS-CoV-2: Patterns, causes and impact on COVID-19

Intra-host viral variability is related to pathogenicity, persistence, drug resistance, and the emergence of new clades. This work reviews the large amount of data on SARS-CoV-2 intra-host variability accumulated to date, addressing known and potential implications in COVID-19 and the emergence of VOCs and lineage-defining mutations. Topics covered include the distribution of intra-host polymorphisms across the genome, the corresponding mutational signatures, their patterns of emergence and extinction throughout infection, and the processes governing their abundance, frequency, and type (synonymous, nonsynonymous, indels, nonsense). Besides, evidence is reviewed that the virus can replicate and mutate in isolation at different anatomical compartments, which may imply that what we have learned from respiratory samples could be part of a broader picture.

Evolutionary Mechanisms of the Emergence of the Variants of Concern of SARS-CoV-2

The evolutionary origin of the variants of concern (VOCs) of SARS-CoV-2, characterized by a large number of new substitutions and strong changes in virulence and transmission rate, is intensely debated. The leading explanation in the literature is a chronic infection in immunocompromised individuals, where the virus evolves before returning into the main population. The present article reviews less-investigated hypotheses of VOC emergence with transmission between acutely infected hosts, with a focus on the mathematical models of stochastic evolution that have proved to be useful for other viruses, such as HIV and influenza virus. The central message is that understanding the acting factors of VOC evolution requires the framework of stochastic multi-locus evolution models, and that alternative hypotheses can be effectively verified by fitting results of computer simulation to empirical data.

Adaptive evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during a persistent infection for 521 days in an immunocompromised patient

Immunocompromised patients struggle to adequately clear viral infections, offering the virus the opportunity to adapt to the immune system in the host. Here we present a case study of a patient undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation with a 521-day follow-up of a SARS-CoV-2 infection with the BF.7.21 variant. Virus samples from five time points were submitted to whole genome sequencing. Between the first detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection and its clearance, the patient's virus population acquired 34 amino acid substitutions and 8 deletions in coding regions. With 11 amino acid substitutions in the receptor binding domain of the virus' spike protein, substitutions were 15 times more abundant than expected for a random distribution in this highly functional region. Amongst them were the substitutions S:K417T, S:N440S, S:K444R, S:V445A, S:G446N, S:L452Q, S:N460K, and S:E484V at positions that are notorious for their resistance-mediating effects. The substitution patterns found indicate ongoing adaptive evolution.

No evidence that mutations in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern derive from homologous fragments in gut microbiota

Understanding the origin and evolution of mutations in SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) is a critical area of research. B. Cao, X. Wang, W. Yin, Z. Gao, and B. Xia (mBio 15:e03187-23, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1128/mbio.03187-23) proposed that these mutations originated from bacterial sequences incorporated into the viral genome through stochastic template-switching by the viral RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp). Their analysis suggested that 62% of the viral mutation fragments (VMFs) in key SARS-CoV-2 proteins were identical to bacterial protein sequences. Given the implications of this finding, we re-examined the methods employed and argue that they resulted in false-positive findings. Specifically, the short query length of VMFs, seven amino acids, leads to spurious matches in large protein databases, as indicated by high BLAST Expect values. Furthermore, we analyzed the nucleotide sequence of VMFs, revealing no unique homology between SARS-CoV-2 and bacterial sequences. Consequently, the evidence does not support the hypothesis that bacterial sequences contribute to the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs. Instead, the emergence of these variants is more plausibly attributed to factors intrinsic to viral replication and evolution, such as the error-prone nature of RdRp, intrahost diversity, and recombination of related viral sublineages.

Long-term chronic infection of a young immunocompromised patient by the SARS-CoV-2 P.2 VOI

An immunocompromised patient was infected by the SARS-CoV-2 variant of interest named Zeta (P.2) in February 2021. More than one year later, he suffered from symptomatic COVID-19 and sequencing revealed the same variant, which accumulated 23 substitutions. This case illustrates intra-host evolution of a particular SARS-CoV-2 variant, highlighting the importance of genomic surveillance of immunocompromised patients.

Multi-Organ Spread and Intra-Host Diversity of SARS-CoV-2 Support Viral Persistence, Adaptation, and a Mechanism That Increases Evolvability

Intra-host diversity is an intricate phenomenon related to immune evasion, antiviral resistance, and evolutionary leaps along transmission chains. SARS-CoV-2 intra-host variation has been well-evidenced from respiratory samples. However, data on systemic dissemination and diversification are relatively scarce and come from immunologically impaired patients. Here, the presence and variability of SARS-CoV-2 were assessed among 71 tissue samples obtained from multiple organs including lung, intestine, heart, kidney, and liver from 15 autopsies with positive swabs and no records of immunocompromise. The virus was detected in most organs in the majority of autopsies. All organs presented intra-host single nucleotide variants (iSNVs) with low, moderate, and high abundances. The iSNV abundances observed within different organs indicate that the virus can mutate at one host site and subsequently spread to other parts of the body. In agreement with previous data from respiratory samples, our lung samples presented no more than 10 iSNVs each. But interestingly, when analyzing different organs we were able to detect between 11 and 45 iSNVs per case. Our results indicate that SARS-CoV-2 can replicate, and evolve in a compartmentalized manner, in different body sites, which agrees with the "viral reservoir" theory. We elaborate on how compartmentalized evolution in multiple organs may contribute to SARS-CoV-2 evolving so rapidly despite the virus having a proofreading mechanism.

Positive selection, genetic recombination, and intra-host evolution in novel equine coronavirus genomes and other members of the Embecovirus subgenus

There are several examples of coronaviruses in the Betacoronavirus subgenus Embecovirus that have jumped from an animal to the human host. Studying how evolutionary factors shape coronaviruses in non-human hosts may provide insight into the coronavirus host-switching potential. Equids, such as horses and donkeys, are susceptible to equine coronaviruses (ECoVs). With increased testing prevalence, several ECoV genome sequences have become available for molecular evolutionary analyses, especially those from the United States of America (USA). To date, no analyses have been performed to characterize evolution within coding regions of the ECoV genome. Here, we obtain and describe four new ECoV genome sequences from infected equines from across the USA presenting clinical symptoms of ECoV, and infer ECoV-specific and Embecovirus-wide patterns of molecular evolution. Within two of the four data sets analyzed, we find evidence of intra-host evolution within the nucleocapsid (N) gene, suggestive of quasispecies development. We also identify 12 putative genetic recombination events within the ECoV genome, 11 of which fall in ORF1ab. Finally, we infer and compare sites subject to positive selection on the ancestral branch of each major Embecovirus member clade. Specifically, for the two currently identified human coronavirus (HCoV) embecoviruses that have spilled from animals to humans (HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1), we find that there are 42 and 2 such sites, respectively, perhaps reflective of the more complex ancestral evolutionary history of HCoV-OC43, which involves several different animal hosts.IMPORTANCEThe Betacoronavirus subgenus Embecovirus contains coronaviruses that not only pose a health threat to animals and humans, but also have jumped from animal to human host. Equids, such as horses and donkeys are susceptible to equine coronavirus (ECoV) infections. No studies have systematically examined evolutionary patterns within ECoV genomes. Our study addresses this gap and provides insight into intra-host ECoV evolution from infected horses. Further, we identify and report natural selection pattern differences between two embecoviruses that have jumped from animals to humans [human coronavirus OC43 and HKU1 (HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1, respectively)], and hypothesize that the differences observed may be due to the different animal host(s) that each virus circulated in prior to its jump into humans. Finally, we contribute four novel, high-quality ECoV genomes to the scientific community.

Community-level variability in Bronx COVID-19 hospitalizations associated with differing population immunity during the second year of the pandemic

The Bronx, New York, exhibited unique peaks in the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and hospitalizations compared to national trends. To determine which features of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus might underpin this local disease epidemiology, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of the genomic epidemiology of the four dominant strains of SARS-CoV-2 (Alpha, Iota, Delta, and Omicron) responsible for COVID-19 cases in the Bronx between March 2020 and January 2023. Genomic analysis revealed similar viral fitness for Alpha and Iota variants in the Bronx despite nationwide data showing higher cases of Alpha. However, Delta and Omicron variants had increased fitness within the borough. While the transmission dynamics of most variants in the Bronx corresponded with mutational fitness-based predictions of transmissibility, the Delta variant presented as an exception. Epidemiological modeling confirms Delta's advantages of higher transmissibility in Manhattan and Queens, but not the Bronx; wastewater analysis suggests underdetection of cases in the Bronx. The Alpha variant had slightly faster growth but a lower carrying capacity compared to Iota and Delta in all four boroughs, suggesting stronger limitations on Alpha's growth in New York City (NYC). The founder effect of Iota varied between higher vaccinated and lower vaccinated boroughs with longer delay, shorter duration, and lower fitness of the Alpha variant in lower vaccinated boroughs. Amino acid changes in T-cell and antibody epitopes revealed Delta and Iota having larger antigenic variability and antigenic profiles distant from local previously circulating lineages compared to Alpha. In concert with transmission modeling, our data suggest that the limited spread of Alpha may be due to a lack of adaptation to immunity in NYC. Overall, our study demonstrates that localized analyses and integration of orthogonal community-level datasets can provide key insights into the mechanisms of transmission and immunity patterns associated with regional COVID-19 incidence and disease severity that may be missed when analyzing broader datasets.

SARS-CoV-2 within-host population expansion, diversification and adaptation in zoo tigers, lions and hyenas

SARS-CoV-2 rapidly adapts to new hosts following cross-species transmission; this is highly relevant as novel within-host variants have emerged following infection of susceptible wild and domestic animal species. Furthermore, SARS-CoV-2 transmission from animals (e.g., white-tailed deer, mink, domestic cats, and others) back to humans has also been observed, documenting the potential of novel animal-derived variants to infect humans. We investigated SARS-CoV-2 evolution and host-specific adaptation during an outbreak in Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica), African lions (Panthera leo), and spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta) at Denver Zoo in late 2021. SARS-CoV-2 genomes from longitudinal samples collected from 16 individuals were evaluated for within-host variation and genomic signatures of selection. The outbreak was likely initiated by a single spillover of a rare Delta sublineage subsequently transmitted from tigers to lions to hyenas. Within-host virus populations rapidly expanded and diversified. We detected signatures of purifying and positive selection, including strong positive selection in hyenas and in the nucleocapsid (N) gene in all animals. Four candidate species-specific adaptive mutations were identified: N A254V in lions and hyenas, and ORF1a E1724D, spike T274I, and N P326L in hyenas. These results reveal accelerated SARS-CoV-2 adaptation following host shifts in three non-domestic species in daily contact with humans.

Chronic infections can generate SARS-CoV-2-like bursts of viral evolution without epistasis

Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants have arisen during the first years of the pandemic, often bearing many new mutations. Several explanations have been offered for the surprisingly sudden emergence of multiple mutations that enhance viral fitness, including cryptic transmission, spillover from animal reservoirs, epistasis between mutations, and chronic infections. Here, we simulated pathogen evolution combining within-host replication and between-host transmission. We found that, under certain conditions, chronic infections can lead to SARS-CoV-2-like bursts of mutations even without epistasis. Chronic infections can also increase the global evolutionary rate of a pathogen even in the absence of clear mutational bursts. Overall, our study supports chronic infections as a plausible origin for highly mutated SARS-CoV-2 variants. More generally, we also describe how chronic infections can influence pathogen evolution under different scenarios.

Characterisation of the antibody-mediated selective pressure driving intra-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in prolonged infection

Neutralising antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) protein are major determinants of protective immunity, though insufficient antibody responses may cause the emergence of escape mutants. We studied the humoral immune response causing intra-host evolution in a B-cell depleted, haemato-oncologic patient experiencing clinically severe, prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection with a virus of lineage B.1.177.81. Following bamlanivimab treatment at an early stage of infection, the patient developed a bamlanivimab-resistant mutation, S:S494P. After five weeks of apparent genetic stability, the emergence of additional substitutions and deletions within the N-terminal domain (NTD) and the receptor binding domain (RBD) of S was observed. Notably, the composition and frequency of escape mutations changed in a short period with an unprecedented dynamic. The triple mutant S:Delta141-4 E484K S494P became dominant until virus elimination. Routine serology revealed no evidence of an antibody response in the patient. A detailed analysis of the variant-specific immune response by pseudotyped virus neutralisation test, surrogate virus neutralisation test, and immunoglobulin-capture enzyme immunoassay showed that the onset of an IgM-dominated antibody response coincided with the appearance of escape mutations. The formation of neutralising antibodies against S:Delta141-4 E484K S494P correlated with virus elimination. One year later, the patient experienced clinically mild re-infection with Omicron BA.1.18, which was treated with sotrovimab and resulted in an increase in Omicron-reactive antibodies. In conclusion, the onset of an IgM-dominated endogenous immune response in an immunocompromised patient coincided with the appearance of additional mutations in the NTD and RBD of S in a bamlanivimab-resistant virus. Although virus elimination was ultimately achieved, this humoral immune response escaped detection by routine diagnosis and created a situation temporarily favouring the rapid emergence of various antibody escape mutants with known epidemiological relevance.

Intrahost evolution leading to distinct lineages in the upper and lower respiratory tracts during SARS-CoV-2 prolonged infection

Accumulating evidence points to persistent severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in immunocompromised individuals as a source of novel lineages. While intrahost evolution of the virus in chronically infected patients has previously been reported, existing knowledge is primarily based on samples from the nasopharynx. In this study, we investigate the intrahost evolution and genetic diversity that accumulated during a prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection with the Omicron BF.7 sublineage, which is estimated to have persisted for >1 year in an immunosuppressed patient. Based on the sequencing of eight samples collected at six time points, we identified 87 intrahost single-nucleotide variants, 2 indels, and a 362-bp deletion. Our analysis revealed distinct viral genotypes in the nasopharyngeal (NP), endotracheal aspirate, and bronchoalveolar lavage samples. This suggests that NP samples may not offer a comprehensive representation of the overall intrahost viral diversity. Our findings not only demonstrate that the Omicron BF.7 sublineage can further diverge from its already exceptionally mutated state but also highlight that patients chronically infected with SARS-CoV-2 can develop genetically specific viral populations across distinct anatomic compartments. This provides novel insights into the intricate nature of viral diversity and evolution dynamics in persistent infections.

Rapid intra-host diversification and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in advanced HIV infection

Previous studies have linked the evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) genetic variants to persistent infections in people with immunocompromising conditions, but the processes responsible for these observations are incompletely understood. Here we use high-throughput, single-genome amplification and sequencing (HT-SGS) to sequence SARS-CoV-2 spike genes from people with HIV (PWH, n = 22) and people without HIV (PWOH, n = 25). In PWOH and PWH with CD4 T cell counts (i.e., CD4 counts) ≥ 200 cells/μL, we find that most SARS-CoV-2 genomes sampled in each person share one spike sequence. By contrast, in people with advanced HIV infection (i.e., CD4 counts < 200 cells/μL), HT-SGS reveals a median of 46 distinct linked groupings of spike mutations per person. Elevated intra-host spike diversity in people with advanced HIV infection is detected immediately after COVID-19 symptom onset, and early intra-host spike diversity predicts SARS-CoV-2 shedding duration among PWH. Analysis of longitudinal timepoints reveals rapid fluctuations in spike sequence populations, replacement of founder sequences by groups of new haplotypes, and positive selection at functionally important residues. These findings demonstrate remarkable intra-host genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in advanced HIV infection and suggest that adaptive intra-host SARS-CoV-2 evolution in this setting may contribute to the emergence of new variants of concern.

Publication-ready single nucleotide polymorphism visualization with snipit

SUMMARY

Snipit is an analysis and visualization tool designed for summarizing single nucleotide polymorphisms in sequences in comparison to a reference sequence. This tool efficiently catalogues nucleotide and amino acid differences, enabling clear comparisons through customizable, publication-ready figures. With features such as configurable colour palettes, customizable record sorting, and the ability to output figures in multiple formats, snipit offers a user-friendly interface for researchers across diverse disciplines. In addition, snipit includes a specialized recombi-mode for illustrating recombination patterns, which can highlight otherwise often difficult-to-detect relationships between sequences.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION

Snipit is an open-source python-based tool that is hosted on GitHub under a GNU-GPL 3.0 licence (https://github.com/aineniamh/snipit). It can be installed from PyPi using pip. Source code and additional documentation can be found on the GitHub repository.

Phylogenetic signatures reveal multilevel selection and fitness costs in SARS-CoV-2

Background

Large-scale sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 has enabled the study of viral evolution during the COVID-19 pandemic. Some viral mutations may be advantageous to viral replication within hosts but detrimental to transmission, thus carrying a transient fitness advantage. By affecting the number of descendants, persistence times and growth rates of associated clades, these mutations generate localised imbalance in phylogenies. Quantifying these features in closely-related clades with and without recurring mutations can elucidate the tradeoffs between within-host replication and between-host transmission.

Methods

We implemented a novel phylogenetic clustering algorithm ( mlscluster, https://github.com/mrc-ide/mlscluster) to systematically explore time-scaled phylogenies for mutations under transient/multilevel selection. We applied this method to a SARS-CoV-2 time-calibrated phylogeny with >1.2 million sequences from England, and characterised these recurrent mutations that may influence transmission fitness across PANGO-lineages and genomic regions using Poisson regressions and summary statistics.

Results

We found no major differences across two epidemic stages (before and after Omicron), PANGO-lineages, and genomic regions. However, spike, nucleocapsid, and ORF3a were proportionally more enriched for transmission fitness polymorphisms (TFP)-homoplasies than other proteins. We provide a catalog of SARS-CoV-2 sites under multilevel selection, which can guide experimental investigations within and beyond the spike protein.

Conclusions

This study provides empirical evidence for the existence of important tradeoffs between within-host replication and between-host transmission shaping the fitness landscape of SARS-CoV-2. This method may be used as a fast and scalable means to shortlist large sequence databases for sites under putative multilevel selection which may warrant subsequent confirmatory analyses and experimental confirmation.

Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and viral intra- and inter-host evolution in COVID-19 hospitalized patients

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) persistence in COVID-19 patients could play a key role in the emergence of variants of concern. The rapid intra-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2 may result in an increased transmissibility, immune and therapeutic escape which could be a direct consequence of COVID-19 epidemic currents. In this context, a longitudinal retrospective study on eight consecutive COVID-19 patients with persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection, from January 2022 to March 2023, was conducted. To characterize the intra- and inter-host viral evolution, whole genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were performed on nasopharyngeal samples collected at different time points. Phylogenetic reconstruction revealed an accelerated SARS-CoV-2 intra-host evolution and emergence of antigenically divergent variants. The Bayesian inference and principal coordinate analysis analysis showed a host-based genomic structuring among antigenically divergent variants, that might reflect the positive effect of containment practices, within the critical hospital area. All longitudinal antigenically divergent isolates shared a wide range of amino acidic (aa) changes, particularly in the Spike (S) glycoprotein, that increased viral transmissibility (K417N, S477N, N501Y and Q498R), enhanced infectivity (R346T, S373P, R408S, T478K, Q498R, Y505H, D614G, H655Y, N679K and P681H), caused host immune escape (S371L, S375F, T376A, K417N, and K444T/R) and displayed partial or complete resistance to treatments (G339D, R346K/T, S371F/L, S375F, T376A, D405N, N440K, G446S, N460K, E484A, F486V, Q493R, G496S and Q498R). These results suggest that multiple novel variants which emerge in the patient during persistent infection, might spread to another individual and continue to evolve. A pro-active genomic surveillance of persistent SARS-CoV-2 infected patients is recommended to identify genetically divergent lineages before their diffusion.

SARS-CoV-2 mutant spectra as variant of concern nurseries: endless variation?

Introduction

SARS-CoV-2 isolates of a given clade may contain low frequency genomes that encode amino acids or deletions which are typical of a different clade.

Methods

Here we use high resolution ultra-deep sequencing to analyze SARS-CoV-2 mutant spectra.

Results

In 6 out of 11 SARS-CoV-2 isolates from COVID-19 patients, the mutant spectrum of the spike (S)-coding region included two or more amino acids or deletions, that correspond to discordant viral clades. A similar observation is reported for laboratory populations of SARS-CoV-2 USA-WA1/2020, following a cell culture infection in the presence of remdesivir, ribavirin or their combinations. Moreover, some of the clade-discordant genome residues are found in the same haplotype within an amplicon.

Discussion

We evaluate possible interpretations of these findings, and reviewed precedents for rapid selection of genomes with multiple mutations in RNA viruses. These considerations suggest that intra-host evolution may be sufficient to generate minority sequences which are closely related to sequences typical of other clades. The results provide a model for the origin of variants of concern during epidemic spread─in particular Omicron lineages─that does not require prolonged infection, involvement of immunocompromised individuals, or participation of intermediate, non-human hosts.

SARS-CoV-2 evolution during prolonged infection in immunocompromised patients

Prolonged infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in immunocompromised patients provides an opportunity for viral evolution, potentially leading to the generation of new pathogenic variants. To investigate the pathways of viral evolution, we carried out a study on five patients experiencing prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection (quantitative polymerase chain reaction-positive for 79-203 days) who were immunocompromised due to treatment for lymphoma or solid organ transplantation. For each timepoint analyzed, we generated at least two independent viral genome sequences to assess the heterogeneity and control for sequencing error. Four of the five patients likely had prolonged infection; the fifth apparently experienced a reinfection. The rates of accumulation of substitutions in the viral genome per day were higher in hospitalized patients with prolonged infection than those estimated for the community background. The spike coding region accumulated a significantly greater number of unique mutations than other viral coding regions, and the mutation density was higher. Two patients were treated with monoclonal antibodies (bebtelovimab and sotrovimab); by the next sampled timepoint, each virus population showed substitutions associated with monoclonal antibody resistance as the dominant forms (spike K444N and spike E340D). All patients received remdesivir, but remdesivir-resistant substitutions were not detected. These data thus help elucidate the trends of emergence, evolution, and selection of mutational variants within long-term infected immunocompromised individuals.

IMPORTANCE

SARS-CoV-2 is responsible for a global pandemic, driven in part by the emergence of new viral variants. Where do these new variants come from? One model is that long-term viral persistence in infected individuals allows for viral evolution in response to host pressures, resulting in viruses more likely to replicate efficiently in humans. In this study, we characterize replication in several hospitalized and long-term infected individuals, documenting efficient pathways of viral evolution.

VIPERA: Viral Intra-Patient Evolution Reporting and Analysis

Viral mutations within patients nurture the adaptive potential of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) during chronic infections, which are a potential source of variants of concern. However, there is no integrated framework for the evolutionary analysis of intra-patient SARS-CoV-2 serial samples. Herein, we describe Viral Intra-Patient Evolution Reporting and Analysis (VIPERA), a new software that integrates the evaluation of the intra-patient ancestry of SARS-CoV-2 sequences with the analysis of evolutionary trajectories of serial sequences from the same viral infection. We have validated it using positive and negative control datasets and have successfully applied it to a new case, which revealed population dynamics and evidence of adaptive evolution. VIPERA is available under a free software license at https://github.com/PathoGenOmics-Lab/VIPERA.

Intra-Host Evolution Analyses in an Immunosuppressed Patient Supports SARS-CoV-2 Viral Reservoir Hypothesis

Throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, several variants of concern (VOCs) have been identified, many of which share recurrent mutations in the spike glycoprotein's receptor-binding domain (RBD). This region coincides with known epitopes and can therefore have an impact on immune escape. Protracted infections in immunosuppressed patients have been hypothesized to lead to an enrichment of such mutations and therefore drive evolution towards VOCs. Here, we present the case of an immunosuppressed patient that developed distinct populations with immune escape mutations throughout the course of their infection. Notably, by investigating the co-occurrence of substitutions on individual sequencing reads in the RBD, we found quasispecies harboring mutations that confer resistance to known monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) such as S:E484K and S:E484A. These mutations were acquired without the patient being treated with mAbs nor convalescent sera and without them developing a detectable immune response to the virus. We also provide additional evidence for a viral reservoir based on intra-host phylogenetics, which led to a viral substrain that evolved elsewhere in the patient's body, colonizing their upper respiratory tract (URT). The presence of SARS-CoV-2 viral reservoirs can shed light on protracted infections interspersed with periods where the virus is undetectable, and potential explanations for long-COVID cases.

Within-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2: how often are de novo mutations transmitted from symptomatic infections?

Despite a relatively low mutation rate, the large number of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections has allowed for substantial genetic change, leading to a multitude of emerging variants. Using a recently determined mutation rate (per site replication), as well as within-host parameter estimates for symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, we apply a stochastic transmission-bottleneck model to describe the survival probability of de novo SARS-CoV-2 mutations as a function of bottleneck size and selection coefficient. For narrow bottlenecks, we find that mutations affecting per-target-cell attachment rate (with phenotypes associated with fusogenicity and ACE2 binding) have similar transmission probabilities to mutations affecting viral load clearance (with phenotypes associated with humoral evasion). We further find that mutations affecting the eclipse rate (with phenotypes associated with reorganization of cellular metabolic processes and synthesis of viral budding precursor material) are highly favoured relative to all other traits examined. We find that mutations leading to reduced removal rates of infected cells (with phenotypes associated with innate immune evasion) have limited transmission advantage relative to mutations leading to humoral evasion. Predicted transmission probabilities, however, for mutations affecting innate immune evasion are more consistent with the range of clinically estimated household transmission probabilities for de novo mutations. This result suggests that although mutations affecting humoral evasion are more easily transmitted when they occur, mutations affecting innate immune evasion may occur more readily. We examine our predictions in the context of a number of previously characterized mutations in circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2. Our work offers both a null model for SARS-CoV-2 mutation rates and predicts which aspects of viral life history are most likely to successfully evolve, despite low mutation rates and repeated transmission bottlenecks.

Prevalence of persistent SARS-CoV-2 in a large community surveillance study

Persistent SARS-CoV-2 infections may act as viral reservoirs that could seed future outbreaks1-5, give rise to highly divergent lineages6-8 and contribute to cases with post-acute COVID-19 sequelae (long COVID)9,10. However, the population prevalence of persistent infections, their viral load kinetics and evolutionary dynamics over the course of infections remain largely unknown. Here, using viral sequence data collected as part of a national infection survey, we identified 381 individuals with SARS-CoV-2 RNA at high titre persisting for at least 30 days, of which 54 had viral RNA persisting at least 60 days. We refer to these as 'persistent infections' as available evidence suggests that they represent ongoing viral replication, although the persistence of non-replicating RNA cannot be ruled out in all. Individuals with persistent infection had more than 50% higher odds of self-reporting long COVID than individuals with non-persistent infection. We estimate that 0.1-0.5% of infections may become persistent with typically rebounding high viral loads and last for at least 60 days. In some individuals, we identified many viral amino acid substitutions, indicating periods of strong positive selection, whereas others had no consensus change in the sequences for prolonged periods, consistent with weak selection. Substitutions included mutations that are lineage defining for SARS-CoV-2 variants, at target sites for monoclonal antibodies and/or are commonly found in immunocompromised people11-14. This work has profound implications for understanding and characterizing SARS-CoV-2 infection, epidemiology and evolution.

SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance and evolution varies by type and severity of immunodeficiency

Despite vaccination and antiviral therapies, immunocompromised individuals are at risk for prolonged severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, but the immune defects that predispose an individual to persistent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remain incompletely understood. In this study, we performed detailed viro-immunologic analyses of a prospective cohort of participants with COVID-19. The median times to nasal viral RNA and culture clearance in individuals with severe immunosuppression due to hematologic malignancy or transplant (S-HT) were 72 and 40 days, respectively, both of which were significantly longer than clearance rates in individuals with severe immunosuppression due to autoimmunity or B cell deficiency (S-A), individuals with nonsevere immunodeficiency, and nonimmunocompromised groups (P < 0.01). Participants who were severely immunocompromised had greater SARS-CoV-2 evolution and a higher risk of developing resistance against therapeutic monoclonal antibodies. Both S-HT and S-A participants had diminished SARS-CoV-2-specific humoral responses, whereas only the S-HT group had reduced T cell-mediated responses. This highlights the varied risk of persistent COVID-19 across distinct immunosuppressive conditions and suggests that suppression of both B and T cell responses results in the highest contributing risk of persistent infection.

Antibody and B Cell Responses to SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Vaccination: The End of the Beginning

As the COVID-19 pandemic has evolved during the past years, interactions between human immune systems, rapidly mutating and selected SARS-CoV-2 viral variants, and effective vaccines have complicated the landscape of individual immunological histories. Here, we review some key findings for antibody and B cell-mediated immunity, including responses to the highly mutated omicron variants; immunological imprinting and other impacts of successive viral antigenic variant exposures on antibody and B cell memory; responses in secondary lymphoid and mucosal tissues and non-neutralizing antibody-mediated immunity; responses in populations vulnerable to severe disease such as those with cancer, immunodeficiencies, and other comorbidities, as well as populations showing apparent resistance to severe disease such as many African populations; and evidence of antibody involvement in postacute sequelae of infection or long COVID. Despite the initial phase of the pandemic ending, human populations will continue to face challenges presented by this unpredictable virus.

Rapid Emergence and Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Variants in Advanced HIV Infection

Previous studies have linked the evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) genetic variants to persistent infections in people with immunocompromising conditions1-4, but the evolutionary processes underlying these observations are incompletely understood. Here we used high-throughput, single-genome amplification and sequencing (HT-SGS) to obtain up to ~103 SARS-CoV-2 spike gene sequences in each of 184 respiratory samples from 22 people with HIV (PWH) and 25 people without HIV (PWOH). Twelve of 22 PWH had advanced HIV infection, defined by peripheral blood CD4 T cell counts (i.e., CD4 counts) <200 cells/μL. In PWOH and PWH with CD4 counts ≥200 cells/μL, most single-genome spike sequences in each person matched one haplotype that predominated throughout the infection. By contrast, people with advanced HIV showed elevated intra-host spike diversity with a median of 46 haplotypes per person (IQR 14-114). Higher intra-host spike diversity immediately after COVID-19 symptom onset predicted longer SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding among PWH, and intra-host spike diversity at this timepoint was significantly higher in people with advanced HIV than in PWOH. Composition of spike sequence populations in people with advanced HIV fluctuated rapidly over time, with founder sequences often replaced by groups of new haplotypes. These population-level changes were associated with a high total burden of intra-host mutations and positive selection at functionally important residues. In several cases, delayed emergence of detectable serum binding to spike was associated with positive selection for presumptive antibody-escape mutations. Taken together, our findings show remarkable intra-host genetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 in advanced HIV infection and suggest that adaptive intra-host SARS-CoV-2 evolution in this setting may contribute to the emergence of new variants of concern (VOCs).

Mutational signature dynamics indicate SARS-CoV-2's evolutionary capacity is driven by host antiviral molecules

The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterised by sequential variant-specific waves shaped by viral, individual human and population factors. SARS-CoV-2 variants are defined by their unique combinations of mutations and there has been a clear adaptation to more efficient human infection since the emergence of this new human coronavirus in late 2019. Here, we use machine learning models to identify shared signatures, i.e., common underlying mutational processes and link these to the subset of mutations that define the variants of concern (VOCs). First, we examined the global SARS-CoV-2 genomes and associated metadata to determine how viral properties and public health measures have influenced the magnitude of waves, as measured by the number of infection cases, in different geographic locations using regression models. This analysis showed that, as expected, both public health measures and virus properties were associated with the waves of regional SARS-CoV-2 reported infection numbers and this impact varies geographically. We attribute this to intrinsic differences such as vaccine coverage, testing and sequencing capacity and the effectiveness of government stringency. To assess underlying evolutionary change, we used non-negative matrix factorisation and observed three distinct mutational signatures, unique in their substitution patterns and exposures from the SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Signatures 1, 2 and 3 were biased to C→T, T→C/A→G and G→T point mutations. We hypothesise assignments of these mutational signatures to the host antiviral molecules APOBEC, ADAR and ROS respectively. We observe a shift amidst the pandemic in relative mutational signature activity from predominantly Signature 1 changes to an increasingly high proportion of changes consistent with Signature 2. This could represent changes in how the virus and the host immune response interact and indicates how SARS-CoV-2 may continue to generate variation in the future. Linkage of the detected mutational signatures to the VOC-defining amino acids substitutions indicates the majority of SARS-CoV-2's evolutionary capacity is likely to be associated with the action of host antiviral molecules rather than virus replication errors.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in immunosuppression evolves sub-lineages which independently accumulate neutralization escape mutations

One mechanism of variant formation may be evolution during long-term infection in immunosuppressed people. To understand the viral phenotypes evolved during such infection, we tested SARS-CoV-2 viruses evolved from an ancestral B.1 lineage infection lasting over 190 days post-diagnosis in an advanced HIV disease immunosuppressed individual. Sequence and phylogenetic analysis showed two evolving sub-lineages, with the second sub-lineage replacing the first sub-lineage in a seeming evolutionary sweep. Each sub-lineage independently evolved escape from neutralizing antibodies. The most evolved virus for the first sub-lineage (isolated day 34) and the second sub-lineage (isolated day 190) showed similar escape from ancestral SARS-CoV-2 and Delta-variant infection elicited neutralizing immunity despite having no spike mutations in common relative to the B.1 lineage. The day 190 isolate also evolved higher cell-cell fusion and faster viral replication and caused more cell death relative to virus isolated soon after diagnosis, though cell death was similar to day 34 first sub-lineage virus. These data show that SARS-CoV-2 strains in prolonged infection in a single individual can follow independent evolutionary trajectories which lead to neutralization escape and other changes in viral properties.

SARS-CoV-2 shedding and evolution in immunocompromised hosts during the Omicron period: a multicenter prospective analysis

Background

Prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infections in immunocompromised hosts may predict or source the emergence of highly mutated variants. The types of immunosuppression placing patients at highest risk for prolonged infection and associated intrahost viral evolution remain unclear.

Methods

Adults aged ≥18 years were enrolled at 5 hospitals and followed from 4/11/2022 - 2/1/2023. Eligible patients were SARS-CoV-2-positive in the previous 14 days and had a moderate or severely immunocompromising condition or treatment. Nasal specimens were tested by rRT-PCR every 2-4 weeks until negative in consecutive specimens. Positive specimens underwent viral culture and whole genome sequencing. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess factors associated with duration of infection.

Results

We enrolled 150 patients with: B cell malignancy or anti-B cell therapy (n=18), solid organ or hematopoietic stem cell transplant (SOT/HSCT) (n=59), AIDS (n=5), non-B cell malignancy (n=23), and autoimmune/autoinflammatory conditions (n=45). Thirty-eight (25%) were rRT-PCR-positive and 12 (8%) were culture-positive ≥21 days after initial SARS-CoV-2 detection or illness onset. Patients with B cell dysfunction had longer duration of rRT-PCR-positivity compared to those with autoimmune/autoinflammatory conditions (aHR 0.32, 95% CI 0.15-0.64). Consensus (>50% frequency) spike mutations were identified in 5 individuals who were rRT-PCR-positive >56 days; 61% were in the receptor-binding domain (RBD). Mutations shared by multiple individuals were rare (<5%) in global circulation.

Conclusions

In this cohort, prolonged replication-competent Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infections were uncommon. Within-host evolutionary rates were similar across patients, but individuals with infections lasting >56 days accumulated spike mutations, which were distinct from those seen globally.

SARS-CoV-2 Viral Clearance and Evolution Varies by Extent of Immunodeficiency

Despite vaccination and antiviral therapies, immunocompromised individuals are at risk for prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection, but the immune defects that predispose to persistent COVID-19 remain incompletely understood. In this study, we performed detailed viro-immunologic analyses of a prospective cohort of participants with COVID-19. The median time to nasal viral RNA and culture clearance in the severe hematologic malignancy/transplant group (S-HT) were 72 and 40 days, respectively, which were significantly longer than clearance rates in the severe autoimmune/B-cell deficient (S-A), non-severe, and non-immunocompromised groups (P<0.001). Participants who were severely immunocompromised had greater SARS-CoV-2 evolution and a higher risk of developing antiviral treatment resistance. Both S-HT and S-A participants had diminished SARS-CoV-2-specific humoral, while only the S-HT group had reduced T cell-mediated responses. This highlights the varied risk of persistent COVID-19 across immunosuppressive conditions and suggests that suppression of both B and T cell responses results in the highest contributing risk of persistent infection.

The effects of amino acid substitution of spike protein and genomic recombination on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Over three years' pandemic of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), multiple variants and novel subvariants have emerged successively, outcompeted earlier variants and become predominant. The sequential emergence of variants reflects the evolutionary process of mutation-selection-adaption of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Amino acid substitution/insertion/deletion in the spike protein causes altered viral antigenicity, transmissibility, and pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2. Early in the pandemic, D614G mutation conferred virus with advantages over previous variants and increased transmissibility, and it also laid a conservative background for subsequent substantial mutations. The role of genomic recombination in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 raised increasing concern with the occurrence of novel recombinants such as Deltacron, XBB.1.5, XBB.1.9.1, and XBB.1.16 in the late phase of pandemic. Co-circulation of different variants and co-infection in immunocompromised patients accelerate the emergence of recombinants. Surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 genomic variations, particularly spike protein mutation and recombination, is essential to identify ongoing changes in the viral genome and antigenic epitopes and thus leads to the development of new vaccine strategies and interventions.

SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Is Capable of Inducing Cell-Cell Fusions Independent from Its Receptor ACE2 and This Activity Can Be Impaired by Furin Inhibitors or a Subset of Monoclonal Antibodies

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), which was responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, efficiently spreads cell-to-cell through mechanisms facilitated by its membrane glycoprotein spike. We established a dual split protein (DSP) assay based on the complementation of GFP and luciferase to quantify the fusogenic activity of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. We provide several lines of evidence that the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, but not SARS-CoV-1, induced cell-cell fusion even in the absence of its receptor, angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). This poorly described ACE2-independent cell fusion activity of the spike protein was strictly dependent on the proteasomal cleavage of the spike by furin while TMPRSS2 was dispensable. Previous and current variants of concern (VOCs) differed significantly in their fusogenicity. The Delta spike was extremely potent compared to Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Kappa, while the Omicron spike was almost devoid of receptor-independent fusion activity. Nonetheless, for all analyzed variants, cell fusion was dependent on furin cleavage and could be pharmacologically inhibited with CMK. Mapping studies revealed that amino acids 652-1273 conferred the ACE2-independent fusion activity of the spike. Unexpectedly, residues proximal to the furin cleavage site were not of major relevance, whereas residue 655 critically regulated fusion. Finally, we found that the spike's fusion activity in the absence of ACE2 could be inhibited by antibodies directed against its N-terminal domain (NTD) but not by antibodies targeting its receptor-binding domain (RBD). In conclusion, our BSL-1-compatible DSP assay allowed us to screen for inhibitors or antibodies that interfere with the spike's fusogenic activity and may therefore contribute to both rational vaccine design and development of novel treatment options against SARS-CoV-2.

Viral infections at the animal-human interface-Learning lessons from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

This Lilliput explores the current epidemiological and virological arguments for a zoonotic origin of the COVID-19 pandemic. While the role of bats, pangolins and racoon dogs as viral reservoirs has not yet been proven, a spill-over of a coronavirus infection from animals into humans at the Huanan food market in Wuhan has a much greater plausibility than alternative hypotheses such as a laboratory virus escape, deliberate genetic engineering or introduction by cold chain food products. This Lilliput highlights the dynamic nature of the animal-human interface for viral cross-infections from humans into feral white tail deer or farmed minks (reverse zoonosis). Surveillance of viral infections at the animal-human interface is an urgent task since live animal markets are not the only risks for future viral spill-overs. Climate change will induce animal migration which leads to viral exchanges between animal species that have not met in the past. Environmental change and deforestation will also increase contact between animals and humans. Developing an early warning system for emerging viral infections becomes thus a societal necessity not only for human but also for animal and environmental health (One Health concept). Microbiologists have developed tools ranging from virome analysis in key suspects such as viral reservoirs (bats, wild game animals, bushmeat) and in humans exposed to wild animals, to wastewater analysis to detect known and unknown viruses circulating in the human population and sentinel studies in animal-exposed patients with fever. Criteria need to be developed to assess the virulence and transmissibility of zoonotic viruses. An early virus warning system is costly and will need political lobbying. The accelerating number of viral infections with pandemic potential over the last decades should provide the public pressure to extend pandemic preparedness for the inclusion of early viral alert systems.

Web Resources for SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Database, Annotation, Analysis and Variant Tracking

The SARS-CoV-2 genomic data continue to grow, providing valuable information for researchers and public health officials. Genomic analysis of these data sheds light on the transmission and evolution of the virus. To aid in SARS-CoV-2 genomic analysis, many web resources have been developed to store, collate, analyze, and visualize the genomic data. This review summarizes web resources used for the SARS-CoV-2 genomic epidemiology, covering data management and sharing, genomic annotation, analysis, and variant tracking. The challenges and further expectations for these web resources are also discussed. Finally, we highlight the importance and need for continued development and improvement of related web resources to effectively track the spread and understand the evolution of the virus.

Immunosuppression as a Hub for SARS-CoV-2 Mutational Drift

The clinical course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), is largely determined by host factors, with a wide range of outcomes. Despite an extensive vaccination campaign and high rates of infection worldwide, the pandemic persists, adapting to overcome antiviral immunity acquired through prior exposure. The source of many such major adaptations is variants of concern (VOCs), novel SARS-CoV-2 variants produced by extraordinary evolutionary leaps whose origins remain mostly unknown. In this study, we tested the influence of factors on the evolutionary course of SARS-CoV-2. Electronic health records of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 were paired to viral whole-genome sequences to assess the effects of host clinical parameters and immunity on the intra-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2. We found slight, albeit significant, differences in SARS-CoV-2 intra-host diversity, which depended on host parameters such as vaccination status and smoking. Only one viral genome had significant alterations as a result of host parameters; it was found in an immunocompromised, chronically infected woman in her 70s. We highlight the unusual viral genome obtained from this woman, which had an accelerated mutational rate and an excess of rare mutations, including near-complete truncating of the accessory protein ORF3a. Our findings suggest that the evolutionary capacity of SARS-CoV-2 during acute infection is limited and mostly unaffected by host characteristics. Significant viral evolution is seemingly exclusive to a small subset of COVID-19 cases, which typically prolong infections in immunocompromised patients. In these rare cases, SARS-CoV-2 genomes accumulate many impactful and potentially adaptive mutations; however, the transmissibility of such viruses remains unclear.