A prospective, Internet-based study of the effectiveness and safety of influenza vaccination in the 2001–2002 influenza season

Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States

Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997-2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection dynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity.

Effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccine in elementary and middle schools: a 10-year follow-up investigation

BACKGROUND

Influenza spreads from schools to the rest of society. Thus, we conducted questionnaire surveys of influenza vaccination in elementary and middle schools in a district for 10 years to determine immunization rates and infection conditions among students who were potential sources of infection at home.

METHODS

The questionnaire-based survey on influenza vaccine administration, influenza infection, and influenza types contracted, as well as influenza immunization history, was conducted in 10 seasons over a period of 10 years.

RESULTS

In elementary schools, vaccination was associated with lower morbidity in most years, whereas in middle schools, morbidity increased among students who were vaccinated every year. Our study did not find consistent trends among faculty and staff. In addition, we found that morbidity was significantly higher among elementary (P < 0.001) and middle (P < 0.05) school students who had been vaccinated since infancy than among those who had not been vaccinated since infancy.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study suggest that vaccinating infants for influenza may increase the risk of contracting influenza later in life.

Influenza Vaccination Effectiveness in Paediatric ‘Healthy’ Patients: A Population-Based Study in Italy

Background: Seasonal influenza can cause serious morbidity, mortality, and financial burden in pediatric and adult populations. The influenza vaccine (IV) is considered the most effective way to prevent influenza and influenza-like-illness (ILI) complications. Objective: To assess the effectiveness of the IV in a cohort of healthy children in Italy. Methods: From the Pedianet database, all healthy children aged six months–14 years between 2009–2019 were enrolled. Cox proportional-hazards models were fitted to estimate hazard ratios and the 95% confidence interval for the association between IV exposure during each season of interest (from October to April of each year) with incident influenza/ILI. Exposure was considered as a time-varying variable. Vaccine effectiveness (VE) was calculated as (1-HR) × 100. The additive and prolonged effects of IV were evaluated across the seasons. Results: We found a high IV effectiveness among healthy children. No additional or prolonged effects were found. Conclusion: Our data indicates that IV was effective in preventing influenza/ILI in healthy children. Therefore, IV should be encouraged and provided free of charge to healthy children in all the Italian regions every year, reducing disease spread and lowering the burden on the pediatric population.

Epidemiology and burden of illness of seasonal influenza among the elderly in Japan: A systematic literature review and vaccine effectiveness meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Elderly populations are particularly vulnerable to influenza and often require extensive clinical support. In Japan, nationwide passive surveillance monitors seasonal influenza but does not capture the full disease burden. We synthesized existing evidence on the epidemiology, vaccine effectiveness (VE), and economic burden of seasonal influenza in the elderly population.

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE, and ICHUSHI were searched for articles on seasonal influenza in Japan, published between 1997 and 2018, in English or Japanese. Grey literature was also assessed. A random-effects meta-analysis characterized VE of influenza vaccines among studies reporting this information.

RESULTS

Of 1,147 identified articles, 143 met inclusion criteria. Reported incidence rates varied considerably depending on study design, season, study setting and, most importantly, case definition. In nursing homes, the maximum reported attack rate was 55.2% and in the 16 articles reporting mortality rates, case fatality rates varied from 0.009% to 14.3%. Most hospitalizations were in people aged >60; healthcare costs were partially mitigated by vaccine administration. Meta-analysis estimated overall VE of 19.1% (95% CI: 2.3% - 33.0%) with a high proportion of heterogeneity (I2 : 89.1%). There was a trend of lower VE in older people (40.1% [-57.3-77.2] in the <65 group; 12.9% [-8.0-29.8] in those 65; P = .21).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite differences between studies that make comparisons challenging, the influenza burden in elderly Japanese is significant. While vaccines are effective, current vaccination programs offer suboptimal protection. Health economic data and cost-effectiveness analyses were limited and represent areas for policy-relevant future research.

Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy children

BACKGROUND

The consequences of influenza in children and adults are mainly absenteeism from school and work. However, the risk of complications is greatest in children and people over 65 years of age. This is an update of a review published in 2011. Future updates of this review will be made only when new trials or vaccines become available. Observational data included in previous versions of the review have been retained for historical reasons but have not been updated because of their lack of influence on the review conclusions.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects (efficacy, effectiveness, and harm) of vaccines against influenza in healthy children.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (the Cochrane Library 2016, Issue 12), which includes the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections Group Specialised Register, MEDLINE (1966 to 31 December 2016), Embase (1974 to 31 December 2016), WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP; 1 July 2017), and ClinicalTrials.gov (1 July 2017).

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials comparing influenza vaccines with placebo or no intervention in naturally occurring influenza in healthy children under 16 years. Previous versions of this review included 19 cohort and 11 case-control studies. We are no longer updating the searches for these study designs but have retained the observational studies for historical purposes.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Review authors independently assessed risk of bias and extracted data. We used GRADE to rate the certainty of evidence for the key outcomes of influenza, influenza-like illness (ILI), complications (hospitalisation, ear infection), and adverse events. Due to variation in control group risks for influenza and ILI, absolute effects are reported as the median control group risk, and numbers needed to vaccinate (NNVs) are reported accordingly. For other outcomes aggregate control group risks are used.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 41 clinical trials (> 200,000 children). Most of the studies were conducted in children over the age of two and compared live attenuated or inactivated vaccines with placebo or no vaccine. Studies were conducted over single influenza seasons in the USA, Western Europe, Russia, and Bangladesh between 1984 and 2013. Restricting analyses to studies at low risk of bias showed that influenza and otitis media were the only outcomes where the impact of bias was negligible. Variability in study design and reporting impeded meta-analysis of harms outcomes.Live attenuated vaccinesCompared with placebo or do nothing, live attenuated influenza vaccines probably reduce the risk of influenza infection in children aged 3 to 16 years from 18% to 4% (risk ratio (RR) 0.22, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.11 to 0.41; 7718 children; moderate-certainty evidence), and they may reduce ILI by a smaller degree, from 17% to 12% (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.80; 124,606 children; low-certainty evidence). Seven children would need to be vaccinated to prevent one case of influenza, and 20 children would need to be vaccinated to prevent one child experiencing an ILI. Acute otitis media is probably similar following vaccine or placebo during seasonal influenza, but this result comes from a single study with particularly high rates of acute otitis media (RR 0.98, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.01; moderate-certainty evidence). There was insufficient information available to determine the effect of vaccines on school absenteeism due to very low-certainty evidence from one study. Vaccinating children may lead to fewer parents taking time off work, although the CI includes no effect (RR 0.69, 95% CI 0.46 to 1.03; low-certainty evidence). Data on the most serious consequences of influenza complications leading to hospitalisation were not available. Data from four studies measuring fever following vaccination varied considerably, from 0.16% to 15% in children who had live vaccines, while in the placebo groups the proportions ranged from 0.71% to 22% (very low-certainty evidence). Data on nausea were not reported.Inactivated vaccinesCompared with placebo or no vaccination, inactivated vaccines reduce the risk of influenza in children aged 2 to 16 years from 30% to 11% (RR 0.36, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.48; 1628 children; high-certainty evidence), and they probably reduce ILI from 28% to 20% (RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.79; 19,044 children; moderate-certainty evidence). Five children would need to be vaccinated to prevent one case of influenza, and 12 children would need to be vaccinated to avoid one case of ILI. The risk of otitis media is probably similar between vaccinated children and unvaccinated children (31% versus 27%), although the CI does not exclude a meaningful increase in otitis media following vaccination (RR 1.15, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.40; 884 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). There was insufficient information available to determine the effect of vaccines on school absenteeism due to very low-certainty evidence from one study. We identified no data on parental working time lost, hospitalisation, fever, or nausea.We found limited evidence on secondary cases, requirement for treatment of lower respiratory tract disease, and drug prescriptions. One brand of monovalent pandemic vaccine was associated with a sudden loss of muscle tone triggered by the experience of an intense emotion (cataplexy) and a sleep disorder (narcolepsy) in children. Evidence of serious harms (such as febrile fits) was sparse.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

In children aged between 3 and 16 years, live influenza vaccines probably reduce influenza (moderate-certainty evidence) and may reduce ILI (low-certainty evidence) over a single influenza season. In this population inactivated vaccines also reduce influenza (high-certainty evidence) and may reduce ILI (low-certainty evidence). For both vaccine types, the absolute reduction in influenza and ILI varied considerably across the study populations, making it difficult to predict how these findings translate to different settings. We found very few randomised controlled trials in children under two years of age. Adverse event data were not well described in the available studies. Standardised approaches to the definition, ascertainment, and reporting of adverse events are needed. Identification of all global cases of potential harms is beyond the scope of this review.

Vaccines for preventing influenza in the elderly

BACKGROUND

The consequences of influenza in the elderly (those age 65 years or older) are complications, hospitalisations, and death. The primary goal of influenza vaccination in the elderly is to reduce the risk of death among people who are most vulnerable. This is an update of a review published in 2010. Future updates of this review will be made only when new trials or vaccines become available. Observational data included in previous versions of the review have been retained for historical reasons but have not been updated because of their lack of influence on the review conclusions.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effects (efficacy, effectiveness, and harm) of vaccines against influenza in the elderly.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (the Cochrane Library 2016, Issue 11), which includes the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections Group's Specialised Register; MEDLINE (1966 to 31 December 2016); Embase (1974 to 31 December 2016); Web of Science (1974 to 31 December 2016); CINAHL (1981 to 31 December 2016); LILACS (1982 to 31 December 2016); WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP; 1 July 2017); and ClinicalTrials.gov (1 July 2017).

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs assessing efficacy against influenza (laboratory-confirmed cases) or effectiveness against influenza-like illness (ILI) or safety. We considered any influenza vaccine given independently, in any dose, preparation, or time schedule, compared with placebo or with no intervention. Previous versions of this review included 67 cohort and case-control studies. The searches for these trial designs are no longer updated.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Review authors independently assessed risk of bias and extracted data. We rated the certainty of evidence with GRADE for the key outcomes of influenza, ILI, complications (hospitalisation, pneumonia), and adverse events. We have presented aggregate control group risks to illustrate the effect in absolute terms. We used them as the basis for calculating the number needed to vaccinate to prevent one case of each event for influenza and ILI outcomes.

MAIN RESULTS

We identified eight RCTs (over 5000 participants), of which four assessed harms. The studies were conducted in community and residential care settings in Europe and the USA between 1965 and 2000. Risk of bias reduced our certainty in the findings for influenza and ILI, but not for other outcomes.Older adults receiving the influenza vaccine may experience less influenza over a single season compared with placebo, from 6% to 2.4% (risk ratio (RR) 0.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.27 to 0.66; low-certainty evidence). We rated the evidence as low certainty due to uncertainty over how influenza was diagnosed. Older adults probably experience less ILI compared with those who do not receive a vaccination over the course of a single influenza season (3.5% versus 6%; RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.47 to 0.73; moderate-certainty evidence). These results indicate that 30 people would need to be vaccinated to prevent one person experiencing influenza, and 42 would need to be vaccinated to prevent one person having an ILI.The study providing data for mortality and pneumonia was underpowered to detect differences in these outcomes. There were 3 deaths from 522 participants in the vaccination arm and 1 death from 177 participants in the placebo arm, providing very low-certainty evidence for the effect on mortality (RR 1.02, 95% CI 0.11 to 9.72). No cases of pneumonia occurred in one study that reported this outcome (very low-certainty evidence). No data on hospitalisations were reported. Confidence intervaIs around the effect of vaccines on fever and nausea were wide, and we do not have enough information about these harms in older people (fever: 1.6% with placebo compared with 2.5% after vaccination (RR 1.57, 0.92 to 2.71; moderate-certainty evidence)); nausea (2.4% with placebo compared with 4.2% after vaccination (RR 1.75, 95% CI 0.74 to 4.12; low-certainty evidence)).

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Older adults receiving the influenza vaccine may have a lower risk of influenza (from 6% to 2.4%), and probably have a lower risk of ILI compared with those who do not receive a vaccination over the course of a single influenza season (from 6% to 3.5%). We are uncertain how big a difference these vaccines will make across different seasons. Very few deaths occurred, and no data on hospitalisation were reported. No cases of pneumonia occurred in one study that reported this outcome. We do not have enough information to assess harms relating to fever and nausea in this population.The evidence for a lower risk of influenza and ILI with vaccination is limited by biases in the design or conduct of the studies. Lack of detail regarding the methods used to confirm the diagnosis of influenza limits the applicability of this result. The available evidence relating to complications is of poor quality, insufficient, or old and provides no clear guidance for public health regarding the safety, efficacy, or effectiveness of influenza vaccines for people aged 65 years or older. Society should invest in research on a new generation of influenza vaccines for the elderly.

Spread of predominant neuraminidase and hemagglutinin co-mutations in the influenza A/H3N2 virus genome

Genetic variation of influenza neuraminidase (NA), unlike for hemagglutinin (HA), has not been fully characterized. Therefore, we determined the relation between mutations in the NA and HA genome segments of 205 influenza A/H3N2 viruses isolated from patients in Japan during the five seasons from 2010 to 2015. The amino acid (AA) sequences of the NA and HA proteins in these isolates were then determined. In the 2011-2012 season, there was the emergence of isolates with NA and HA sequences containing AA93G (NA93G) and AA278K (HA278K), respectively (24/48 isolates, 50.0%). This was in contrast to NA93D-HA278N being detected exclusively in the previous 2010-2011 season (24/24 isolates, 100.0%). The isolates with the NA93G-HA278K substitutions became predominant in the following 2012-2013 season (95.8%, 46/48 isolates). The NA and HA phylogenetic trees of the 2011-2012 and 2012-2013 seasons were segregated by clades with NA93D-HA278N or NA93G-HA278K. In the subsequent 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 seasons, the strong relationship between NA93D-HA278N and NA93G-HA278K observed in the previous seasons, was no longer present and NA93G-HA278N (33/52 isolates, 63.5% in the 2014-2015 season) became predominant. In addition, the clades within the NA and HA trees could no longer be segregated based on NA AA93 and HA AA278. These findings suggest that the co-mutation of NA and HA AA sequences is present and may contribute to the formation of an epidemic lineage.

Vaccine epidemiology: Its role in promoting sound immunization programs in Japan

In Japan, the Vaccine Epidemiology Research Group created by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare has played an important role in demonstrating the solid scientific basis for vaccine efficacy and safety since 2002. Members of the group, including epidemiologists, clinicians and microbiologists, have been conducting collaborative studies on vaccines for influenza, pertussis, rotavirus gastroenteritis, polio and pneumonia. So far, the group has achieved several works and contributed to the national vaccination program, including research on the immunogenicity of low doses of influenza vaccine among young children, the immunogenicity and effectiveness of the 2009 influenza pandemic vaccine among various risk groups, the interchangeability of live/inactivated polio vaccines, the health impact of influenza on pregnant women, and the monitoring of influenza vaccine effectiveness using case-control studies with a test-negative design. As part of the 18th Annual Meeting of the Japanese Society of Vaccinology, these accomplishments were featured in the Vaccine Epidemiology Symposium. This report summarizes the recent epidemiological studies on vaccine in Japan as a prologue to the next six papers collected from the symposium.

Trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine effective against influenza A(H3N2) variant viruses in children during the 2014/15 season, Japan

The 2014/15 influenza season in Japan was characterised by predominant influenza A(H3N2) activity; 99% of influenza A viruses detected were A(H3N2). Subclade 3C.2a viruses were the major epidemic A(H3N2) viruses, and were genetically distinct from A/New York/39/2012(H3N2) of 2014/15 vaccine strain in Japan, which was classified as clade 3C.1. We assessed vaccine effectiveness (VE) of inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV) in children aged 6 months to 15 years by test-negative case–control design based on influenza rapid diagnostic test. Between November 2014 and March 2015, a total of 3,752 children were enrolled: 1,633 tested positive for influenza A and 42 for influenza B, and 2,077 tested negative. Adjusted VE was 38% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 28 to 46) against influenza virus infection overall, 37% (95% CI: 27 to 45) against influenza A, and 47% (95% CI: -2 to 73) against influenza B. However, IIV was not statistically significantly effective against influenza A in infants aged 6 to 11 months or adolescents aged 13 to 15 years. VE in preventing hospitalisation for influenza A infection was 55% (95% CI: 42 to 64). Trivalent IIV that included A/New York/39/2012(H3N2) was effective against drifted influenza A(H3N2) virus, although vaccine mismatch resulted in low VE.

Effect of seasonal vaccination on the selection of influenza A/H3N2 epidemic variants

The effect of vaccination on the dynamics of influenza virus variants remains largely unknown in humans, unlike in poultry. In this study, we compared influenza hemagglutinin (HA) gene sequences isolated from vaccinated and unvaccinated populations with the yearly vaccine strains. In total, 181 influenza A/H3N2 virus samples isolated from 82 vaccinated and 99 unvaccinated patients (2011-15, four Japanese influenza seasons) were genetically analyzed using a next-generation sequencer. Amino acid (AA) differences from corresponding vaccine strains were found in 74 of 329 HA1 sites. There was a maximum of four AA differences within the epitopes in the former three seasons (2011-14) and fifteen in the latter season (2014-15). Deviation to a greater number of AA differences was found more significantly in the isolates from vaccinated patients as compared to unvaccinated patients (P=0.0005 in 2011-14; P=0.0096 in 2014-15). AA difference rates within epitopes were also significantly higher in the isolates from vaccinated patients than from unvaccinated patients (2.64% vs. 2.14% for 2011-14, P=0.033; 7.78% vs. 6.59% for 2014-15, P=0.058). The AA differences at seven sites (48I-278K, 128A-142G, 145S, 158K, and 193S) became dominant in the following seasons. In all of these sites, the dominance was retained during the mismatch of isolates with the vaccine strains and was lost after vaccine match. Our data suggest that in humans, immune pressure induced by vaccination works to select influenza variants genetically distant from vaccine strains.

Effectiveness of Trivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccine in Children Estimated by a Test-Negative Case-Control Design Study Based on Influenza Rapid Diagnostic Test Results

We assessed vaccine effectiveness (VE) against medically attended, laboratory-confirmed influenza in children 6 months to 15 years of age in 22 hospitals in Japan during the 2013-14 season. Our study was conducted according to a test-negative case-control design based on influenza rapid diagnostic test (IRDT) results. Outpatients who came to our clinics with a fever of 38 °C or over and had undergone an IRDT were enrolled in this study. Patients with positive IRDT results were recorded as cases, and patients with negative results were recorded as controls. Between November 2013 and March 2014, a total of 4727 pediatric patients (6 months to 15 years of age) were enrolled: 876 were positive for influenza A, 66 for A(H1N1)pdm09 and in the other 810 the subtype was unknown; 1405 were positive for influenza B; and 2445 were negative for influenza. Overall VE was 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 39-52). Adjusted VE against influenza A, influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, and influenza B was 63% (95% CI, 56-69), 77% (95% CI, 59-87), and 26% (95% CI, 14-36), respectively. Influenza vaccine was not effective against either influenza A or influenza B in infants 6 to 11 months of age. Two doses of influenza vaccine provided better protection against influenza A infection than a single dose did. VE against hospitalization influenza A infection was 76%. Influenza vaccine was effective against influenza A, especially against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, but was much less effective against influenza B.

After adjusting for bias in meta-analysis seasonal influenza vaccine remains effective in community-dwelling elderly

OBJECTIVE

To compare the performance of the bias-adjusted meta-analysis to the conventional meta-analysis assessing seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness among community-dwelling elderly aged 60 years and older.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Systematic literature search revealed 14 cohort studies that met inclusion and exclusion criteria. Laboratory-confirmed influenza, influenza-like illness, hospitalization from influenza and/or pneumonia, and all-cause mortality were study outcomes. Potential biases were identified using bias checklists. The magnitude and uncertainty of biases were assessed by expert opinion. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated using random effects model.

RESULTS

After incorporating biases, overall effect estimates regressed slightly toward no effect, with the largest relative difference between conventional and bias-adjusted ORs for laboratory-confirmed influenza (OR, 0.18; 95% CI: 0.01, 3.00 vs. OR, 0.23; 95% CI: 0.03, 2.04). In most of the studies, CIs widened reflecting uncertainties about the biases. The between-study heterogeneity reduced considerably with the largest reduction for all-cause mortality (I(2) = 4%, P = 0.39 vs. I(2) = 91%, P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

This case study showed that after addressing potential biases influenza vaccine was still estimated effective in preventing hospitalization from influenza and/or pneumonia and all-cause mortality. Increasing the number of assessors and incorporating empirical evidence might improve the new bias-adjustment method.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccine in children in day-care centers of Sapporo

BACKGROUND

We conducted a retrospective cohort study for evaluating the effectiveness of the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) among children aged 0-6 years in the 2011-2012 season in Sapporo City, Japan, because of scarce evidence.

METHODS

From 10 day-care centers in Sapporo City, Japan, 629 parents participated in the study. Each parent of the subjects described whether a subject received TIV once or twice in the 2011-2012 season, as well as the exact dates of receiving TIV from records in a maternal and child health handbook marked by a pediatrician. The incidence of influenza was defined as being affected with influenza as diagnosed by a pediatrician. Cox's proportional model was used for calculating a hazard ratio (HR) and its 95% confidence interval (95%CI) of TIV on an influenza incidence.

RESULTS

After adjusting potential confounding variables, such as the day-care center, presence of comorbidity, size of household, number of siblings, and number of smokers in the home in addition to the age and sex of the child, HR was significantly reduced in the subjects aged 1 year (HR = 0.22, 95%CI 0.09-0.54) as well as in the total subjects (HR = 0.72, 95%CI 0.52-0.99). Consequently, the effectiveness of TIV was calculated as 78% for the subjects aged 1 year and 28% for the total subjects.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that TIV is effective, especially in subjects aged 1 year. Further studies are necessary in different seasons, places, and populations to clarify the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine in children.

A review of the evidence to support influenza vaccine introduction in countries and areas of WHO's Western Pacific Region

Background

Immunization against influenza is considered an essential public health intervention to control both seasonal epidemics and pandemic influenza. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), there are five key policy and three key programmatic issues that decision-makers should consider before introducing a vaccine. These are (a) public health priority, (b) disease burden, (c) efficacy, quality and safety of the vaccine, (d) other inventions, (e) economic and financial issues, (f) vaccine presentation, (g) supply availability and (h) programmatic strength. We analyzed the body of evidence currently available on these eight issues in the WHO Western Pacific Region.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Studies indexed in PubMed and published in English between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2010 from the 37 countries and areas of the Western Pacific Region were screened for keywords pertaining to the five policy and three programmatic issues. Studies were grouped according to country income level and vaccine target group. There were 133 articles that met the selection criteria, with most (90%) coming from high-income countries. Disease burden (n = 34), vaccine efficacy, quality and safety (n = 27) and public health priority (n = 27) were most frequently addressed by studies conducted in the Region. Many studies assessed influenza vaccine policy and programmatic issues in the general population (42%), in the elderly (24%) and in children (17%). Few studies (2%) addressed the eight issues relating to pregnant women.

Conclusions/Significance

The evidence for vaccine introduction in countries and areas in this Region remains limited, particularly in low- and middle-income countries that do not currently have influenza vaccination programmes. Surveillance activities and specialized studies can be used to assess the eight issues including disease burden among vaccine target groups and the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccine. Multi-country studies should be considered to maximize resource utilization for cross-cutting issues such as vaccine presentation and other inventions.

Vaccination against seasonal influenza is effective in Japanese patients with rheumatoid arthritis enrolled in a large observational cohort

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the effectiveness of influenza vaccination in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) from a large practice-based cohort.

METHOD

Patients with RA enrolled in the Institute of Rheumatology, Rheumatoid Arthritis (IORRA) cohort completed self-administered questionnaires as part of the April IORRA surveys of 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2007, which included their influenza vaccination status and occurrence of an actual influenza attack. Vaccine coverage rate and attack rates were calculated in each season. Relative risks (RRs) of vaccination for an actual influenza attack were evaluated and risk factors for influenza infection were determined by multiple logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

Data from 3529, 4518, 4816, and 4872 patients in the 2000/01, 2001/02, 2002/03, and 2006/07 seasons, respectively, were analysed. Coverage rates were increased from 12.2% in the 2000/01 season to 38.7% in the 2006/07 season. For each season, the attack rates in vaccinated patients trended lower than the rates in unvaccinated patients but the differences were not significant; however, by combining these four seasonal results, the attack rate was significantly lower for vaccinated patients [RR 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.95, p < 0.01]. Male gender [odds ratio (OR) 1.48, 95% CI 1.25-1.76, p < 0.001] was associated with increased risk whereas vaccination was associated with reduced risk for influenza attack (OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.63-0.91, p < 0.01). There were no associations between influenza attacks and RA disease activity, treatment with methotrexate (MTX) or corticosteroids.

CONCLUSION

Influenza vaccination was effective in patients with RA regardless of disease activity or treatment.

Implementing an influenza vaccination programme for adults aged ≥65 years in Poland: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Influenza is a common respiratory disease occurring in seasonal patterns, and may lead to severe complications in frail populations such as the elderly. In Poland, influenza vaccination is recommended for people aged ≥65 years; however the vaccine coverage rate in the elderly is very low. The fact that influenza vaccine is neither reimbursed by the National Health Insurance (Narodowy Fundusz Zdrowia [NFZ]) nor financed via a National Immunization Program (NIP) could be a reason for the low coverage rate. This study assessed the cost effectiveness of the full reimbursement of an influenza vaccination programme in Poland for people aged ≥65 years.

METHODS

A decision-analytic model was developed to compare costs and outcomes associated with the current situation in which influenza vaccination is not reimbursed and a new situation in which it would be fully covered by the NFZ. The model was parameterized to Poland using data from the literature and from the Central Statistic Office of Poland. Within the elderly population, 50% were considered to be at high risk of influenza complications. An influenza attack rate of 3.5% was used for calculation purposes. Influenza-associated hospitalizations and death rates were estimated at 439.9 per 100 000 person-years and 79.1 per 100 000 person-years, respectively. Cost estimates were derived from a cost study conducted in Poland. Costs are presented in Polish Zloty (PLN) [2009 mean exchange rate: 1 PLN = €0.232]. Only direct medical costs were included to fit to the NFZ perspective. To reflect the seasonality of influenza, a time horizon of 1 year was chosen. Life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) accumulated over future years were discounted at a rate of 5% as recommended by Polish guidelines. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

In Poland, the introduction of the public funding of influenza vaccination for people aged ≥65 years would cost PLN 79 million when an increase in coverage rate from 13.5% to 40% is assumed. 23 900 cases of influenza, 1777 hospitalizations and 548 premature deaths would be averted each year due to the influenza vaccination programme. Fifty-seven persons would need to be vaccinated to prevent one case of influenza. To prevent one hospitalization and one death due to influenza, 842 and 2809 individuals would need to be vaccinated, respectively. The new strategy would be very cost effective compared with the current situation with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of PLN26 118/QALY, which is below the 2009 yearly gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Deterministic sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the most influential variables for the ICER were vaccine efficacy against death, excess hospitalization rate, utility norms, influenza attack rate, vaccine efficacy against hospitalization, and discount rates. All ICERs computed were below the threshold of 3 GDP per capita. From the probabilistic analysis, the proposed new influenza vaccination programme, if implemented, was predicted to be cost effective from the NFZ perspective with a probability of 100%, given the same threshold.

CONCLUSION

Implementing a vaccination programme in Poland in which influenza vaccination would be fully reimbursed by the NFZ for people aged ≥65 years would be a very cost-effective strategy.

Increased symptom severity but unchanged neuraminidase inhibitor effectiveness for A(H1N1)pdm09 in the 2010-2011 season: comparison with the previous season and with seasonal A(H3N2) and B

BACKGROUND

No studies of the clinical symptoms before starting therapy or of the effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) have been carried out of the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 seasons that compare A(H1N1)pdm09 or the three circulating types of influenza virus.

METHODS

The clinical symptoms and duration of fever (body temperature ≥37·5°C) after the first dose of an NAI (oseltamivir, zanamivir, laninamivir) were analyzed. PCR was carried out for 365 patients with A(H1N1)pdm09 in the 2009-2010 season and for 388 patients with one of the three types of influenza circulating in the 2010-2011 season. IC50 for the three NAIs was also analyzed in 51 patients in the 2010-2011 season.

RESULTS

The peak body temperature was significantly higher in 2010-2011 than in 2009-2010 for patients under 20 years with A(H1N1)pdm09, and in the 2010-2011 season for children 15 years or younger with A(H1N1)pdm09 than for those with other virus types. The percentage of A(H1N1)pdm09 patients with loss of appetite or fatigue was significantly higher in 2010-2011 than in the previous season. The duration of fever was not affected by the kind of NAI or by age in multiple regression analysis. The percentage of patients afebrile at 48 hours after the first dose of NAI was significantly higher for A(H1N1)pdm09 than for A(H3N2) (laninamivir) or B (oseltamivir and laninamivir).

CONCLUSION

Although the clinical symptoms of A(H1N1)pdm09 were slightly more severe in the 2010-2011 season, the effectiveness of the NAIs remained high in comparison with 2009-2010 and with other types of seasonal influenza.

Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy children

BACKGROUND

The consequences of influenza in children and adults are mainly absenteeism from school and work. However, the risk of complications is greatest in children and people over 65 years of age.

OBJECTIVES

To appraise all comparative studies evaluating the effects of influenza vaccines in healthy children, assess vaccine efficacy (prevention of confirmed influenza) and effectiveness (prevention of influenza-like illness (ILI)) and document adverse events associated with influenza vaccines.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2011, Issue 3) which includes the Acute Respiratory Infections Group's Specialised Register, OLD MEDLINE (1950 to 1965), MEDLINE (1966 to November 2011), EMBASE (1974 to November 2011), Biological Abstracts (1969 to September 2007), and Science Citation Index (1974 to September 2007).

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), cohort and case-control studies of any influenza vaccine in healthy children under 16 years of age.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Four review authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 75 studies with about 300,000 observations. We included 17 RCTs, 19 cohort studies and 11 case-control studies in the analysis of vaccine efficacy and effectiveness. Evidence from RCTs shows that six children under the age of six need to be vaccinated with live attenuated vaccine to prevent one case of influenza (infection and symptoms). We could find no usable data for those aged two years or younger.Inactivated vaccines in children aged two years or younger are not significantly more efficacious than placebo. Twenty-eight children over the age of six need to be vaccinated to prevent one case of influenza (infection and symptoms). Eight need to be vaccinated to prevent one case of influenza-like-illness (ILI). We could find no evidence of effect on secondary cases, lower respiratory tract disease, drug prescriptions, otitis media and its consequences and socioeconomic impact. We found weak single-study evidence of effect on school absenteeism by children and caring parents from work. Variability in study design and presentation of data was such that a meta-analysis of safety outcome data was not feasible. Extensive evidence of reporting bias of safety outcomes from trials of live attenuated influenza vaccines (LAIVs) impeded meaningful analysis. One specific brand of monovalent pandemic vaccine is associated with cataplexy and narcolepsy in children and there is sparse evidence of serious harms (such as febrile convulsions) in specific situations.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccines are efficacious in preventing cases of influenza in children older than two years of age, but little evidence is available for children younger than two years of age. There was a difference between vaccine efficacy and effectiveness, partly due to differing datasets, settings and viral circulation patterns. No safety comparisons could be carried out, emphasising the need for standardisation of methods and presentation of vaccine safety data in future studies. In specific cases, influenza vaccines were associated with serious harms such as narcolepsy and febrile convulsions. It was surprising to find only one study of inactivated vaccine in children under two years, given current recommendations to vaccinate healthy children from six months of age in the USA, Canada, parts of Europe and Australia. If immunisation in children is to be recommended as a public health policy, large-scale studies assessing important outcomes, and directly comparing vaccine types are urgently required. The degree of scrutiny needed to identify all global cases of potential harms is beyond the resources of this review. This review includes trials funded by industry. An earlier systematic review of 274 influenza vaccine studies published up to 2007 found industry-funded studies were published in more prestigious journals and cited more than other studies independently from methodological quality and size. Studies funded from public sources were significantly less likely to report conclusions favourable to the vaccines. The review showed that reliable evidence on influenza vaccines is thin but there is evidence of widespread manipulation of conclusions and spurious notoriety of the studies. The content and conclusions of this review should be interpreted in the light of this finding.

Field effectiveness of pandemic and 2009-2010 seasonal vaccines against 2009-2010 A(H1N1) influenza: estimations from surveillance data in France

BACKGROUND

In this study, we assess how effective pandemic and trivalent 2009-2010 seasonal vaccines were in preventing influenza-like illness (ILI) during the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic in France. We also compare vaccine effectiveness against ILI versus laboratory-confirmed pandemic A(H1N1) influenza, and assess the possible bias caused by using non-specific endpoints and observational data.

METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We estimated vaccine effectiveness by using the following formula: VE  =  (PPV-PCV)/(PPV(1-PCV)) × 100%, where PPV is the proportion vaccinated in the population and PCV the proportion of vaccinated influenza cases. People were considered vaccinated three weeks after receiving a dose of vaccine. ILI and pandemic A(H1N1) laboratory-confirmed cases were obtained from two surveillance networks of general practitioners. During the epidemic, 99.7% of influenza isolates were pandemic A(H1N1). Pandemic and seasonal vaccine uptakes in the population were obtained from the National Health Insurance database and by telephonic surveys, respectively. Effectiveness estimates were adjusted by age and week. The presence of residual biases was explored by calculating vaccine effectiveness after the influenza period. The effectiveness of pandemic vaccines in preventing ILI was 52% (95% confidence interval: 30-69) during the pandemic and 33% (4-55) after. It was 86% (56-98) against confirmed influenza. The effectiveness of seasonal vaccines against ILI was 61% (56-66) during the pandemic and 19% (-10-41) after. It was 60% (41-74) against confirmed influenza.

CONCLUSIONS

The effectiveness of pandemic vaccines in preventing confirmed pandemic A(H1N1) influenza on the field was high, consistently with published findings. It was significantly lower against ILI. This is unsurprising since not all ILI cases are caused by influenza. Trivalent 2009-2010 seasonal vaccines had a statistically significant effectiveness in preventing ILI and confirmed pandemic influenza, but were not better in preventing confirmed pandemic influenza than in preventing ILI. This lack of difference might be indicative of selection bias.

[Flu vaccination in the elderly]

Seasonal flu is a very serious public health problem in the elderly due to its morbidity and mortality and financial and social costs arising from this. The aim of this review is to describe the magnitude and importance of seasonal flu in this population group, and its prevention by means of vaccination. For this reason, an updated account of the composition of the vaccine, its dosage and administration route, vaccine safety and the evaluation of the immunogenicity and effectiveness of vaccination. There is variation between different countries and official organisations on the age at which flu vaccination must be established in the elderly. New flu vaccination strategies need to be introduced, to further improve flu vaccination cover in Spain.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness in primary school children in Japan: a prospective cohort study using rapid diagnostic test results

A low-cost, prospective cohort study using the results of rapid diagnostic test performed at local clinics was conducted to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in school children (6-12 year-olds). All children in four primary schools in Tsuchiura City, Ibaraki, Japan were enrolled (n = 2607). Vaccination status and other risk factors were obtained with a baseline questionnaire. Participants were encouraged to visit a clinic to have a rapid test when they developed an influenza-like illness during the winter season in 2006-2007, and 88.6% of those who reported influenza to the school had been tested. The result of the test was obtained with another questionnaire. The attack rate of influenza A and B was 5.4% and 11.9%, respectively. Logistic regression was used to model the association between influenza vaccination and rapid-test-confirmed influenza after adjusting for potential confounders. Influenza VE was calculated as (1- adjusted odds ratio) × 100. VE for total influenza was 21% (95% confidence interval -8 to 42), which was a combination of VE for influenza A (44%, 8-66) and VE for influenza B (5%, -37 to 34). Among several possibilities that would account for rather low VE estimates in this study, low sensitivity of the rapid test, and differential propensity to seek vaccination or medical care between the vaccinated and nonvaccinated were considered to be important. This study was able to estimate influenza VE at very low cost with high specificity in case ascertainment by collecting the readily available data on influenza rapid test with questionnaires.

Vaccines for preventing influenza in the elderly

BACKGROUND

Vaccines have been the main global weapon to minimise the impact of influenza in the elderly for the last four decades and are recommended worldwide for individuals aged 65 years or older. The primary goal of influenza vaccination in the elderly is to reduce the risk of complications among persons who are most vulnerable.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effectiveness of vaccines in preventing influenza, influenza-like illness (ILI), hospital admissions, complications and mortality in the elderly. To identify and appraise comparative studies evaluating the effects of influenza vaccines in the elderly. To document types and frequency of adverse effects associated with influenza vaccines in the elderly.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), which contains the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) Group's Specialised Register (The Cochrane Library 2009, issue 4); MEDLINE (January 1966 to October Week 1 2009); EMBASE (1974 to October 2009) and Web of Science (1974 to October 2009).

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-RCTs, cohort and case-control studies assessing efficacy against influenza (laboratory-confirmed cases) or effectiveness against influenza-like illness (ILI) or safety. Any influenza vaccine given independently, in any dose, preparation or time schedule, compared with placebo or with no intervention was considered.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We grouped reports first according to the setting of the study (community or long-term care facilities) and then by level of viral circulation and vaccine matching. We further stratified by co-administration of pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV) and by different types of influenza vaccines. We analysed the following outcomes: influenza, influenza-like illness, hospital admissions, complications and deaths.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 75 studies. Overall we identified 100 data sets. We identified one RCT assessing efficacy and effectiveness. Although this seemed to show an effect against influenza symptoms it was underpowered to detect any effect on complications (1348 participants). The remainder of our evidence base included non-RCTs. Due to the general low quality of non-RCTs and the likely presence of biases, which make interpretation of these data difficult and any firm conclusions potentially misleading, we were unable to reach clear conclusions about the effects of the vaccines in the elderly.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

The available evidence is of poor quality and provides no guidance regarding the safety, efficacy or effectiveness of influenza vaccines for people aged 65 years or older. To resolve the uncertainty, an adequately powered publicly-funded randomised, placebo-controlled trial run over several seasons should be undertaken.

On the use of hemagglutination-inhibition for influenza surveillance: surveillance data are predictive of influenza vaccine effectiveness

The hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay is the main tool used by epidemiologists to quantify antigenic differences between circulating influenza virus strains, with the goal of selecting suitable vaccine strains. However, such quantitative measures of antigenic difference were recently shown to have poor predictive accuracy with respect to influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in healthy adults. Here, we re-examine those results using a more rigorous criterion for predictive accuracy -- considering only cases when the vaccine (V) and dominant (D) circulating strains are antigenically different -- and greater numbers of HI titers. We find that the Archetti -- Horsfall measure of antigenic difference, which is based on both the normalized HI titer (NHI) of D relative to antisera raised against V and the NHI of V relative to D, predicts VE very well (R(2)=0.62, p=4.1x10(-3)). In contrast, the predictive accuracies of the NHI of D relative to V alone (R(2)=0.01), and two other measures of antigenic difference based on the amino acid sequence of influenza virus hemagglutinin (R(2)=0.03 for both measures) are relatively poor. Furthermore, while VE in the elderly is generally high in cases when D and V are antigenically identical (VE=35%, S.E.=5%), in other cases VE appears to increase with the antigenic difference between D and V (R(2)=0.90, p=2.5x10(-5)). This paradoxical observation could reflect the confounding effects of prior immunity on estimates of VE in the elderly. Together, our results underscore the need for consistently accurate selection of suitable vaccine strains. We suggest directions for further studies aimed at improving vaccine-strain selection and present a large collection of HI titers that will be useful to such studies.

The effect of misclassification on evaluating the effectiveness of influenza vaccines

Misclassification is a measurement error and can be considered a type of information bias. Misclassification can occur at both exposure and outcome levels. Nondifferential misclassification causes only a dilution effect leading to underestimation, whereas differential misclassification can have more complicated and serious consequences. To avoid nondifferential diagnosis misclassification, it is necessary to use highly specific diagnostic examinations or criteria such as virus detection to exclude 'false positive' cases, and to limit the observation period to an intensive epidemic period if using less specific diagnostic criteria such as symptoms of influenza-like illness (ILI) or absence from school or workplace. To avoid differential diagnosis misclassification, vaccinated and unvaccinated groups must be equally scrutinized, and such scrutiny is more important than the specificity of diagnosis. So, passive findings from patients with influenza at clinics can cause complicated differential misclassification despite use of highly specific diagnostic procedures because vaccinated and unvaccinated patients may participate differently. Also important is standardization of diagnostic procedure that vaccination anamnesis does not influence diagnosis of influenza, or examination of the influence. Exposure misclassification would mainly underestimate vaccine effectiveness in most situations. Consequently, misclassification of diagnosis, especially differential misclassification, affects evaluation of influenza vaccine effectiveness.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness among elderly persons living in the community during the 2003--2004 season

To examine the effectiveness of influenza vaccine among community-dwelling elderly (65-79 years old), we conducted a population-based cohort study during the 2003--2004 influenza season. A total of 4787 elderly individuals were interviewed regarding acute febrile illness, hospital visits, hospitalization and death by telephone every month. The vaccination status and physician-diagnosed clinical influenza (hereinafter referred as clinical influenza) were determined based on data obtained from the city office and hospitals, respectively. After adjusting for confounders, the odds ratio (OR) of vaccination for influenza-like illness (ILI) with high-fever, which was defined as an acute febrile illness (> or =38.5 degrees C) during the epidemic period, was 0.38 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.17-0.85) and the OR for clinical influenza was 0.76 (95%CI, 0.28-2.06). Due to the inadequate sample size, ORs for preventing hospitalization for influenza or pneumonia (OR, 0.37; 95%CI, 0.09-1.47) and death (OR, 3.68; 95%CI, 0.75-18.12) were not conclusive. These results suggested that vaccination was therefore effective for elderly persons living in the community.

Essential tools for assessing influenza vaccine efficacy in improperly conducted studies: a Japanese perspective

The fundamental issue in assessing influenza vaccine efficacy is to observe all study subjects with equal intensity throughout the surveillance period. The case definition can be adopted within the scope of the budget and the logistics of the study; however, there is no doubt that culture-proven influenza is currently the best outcome index. More pronounced vaccine efficacy can be detected if stricter case definition criteria are applied and/or if observations are confined to the peak epidemic period. Patients identified through passive case-finding in clinics do not properly represent all influenza cases that occur in the study subjects. Almost all non-randomized studies which have so far been conducted by Japanese clinicians do not take confounders into consideration. Even though laboratory-confirmed influenza is identified, vaccine efficacy should primarily be estimated based on the presence of any influenzal illness, since efficacy calculated by virus type or subtype often results in loss of statistical power. The results from post hoc subgroup analysis may not offer a solid base for assessing vaccine efficacy and should be cautiously interpreted.

History of influenza vaccination programs in Japan

In 1976, influenza mass vaccination among schoolchildren was started under the Preventive Vaccination Law, which was intended to control epidemics in the community. However, in the late 1980s, questions about this policy and vaccine efficacy arose, and a campaign against vaccination began. In 1994, influenza was excluded from the target diseases list in the Preventive Vaccination Law, without considering the immunization policy with respect to the common indications in high-risk groups. In 2001, the Law was again amended, specifying target groups, such as the elderly aged 65 or over, for influenza vaccination. In the 2005--2006 season, vaccine coverage among the elderly reached 52%. This shows that the need for vaccination has gradually become understood. However, the anti-vaccination campaign, which claims that the influenza vaccine has no efficacy, is still active. Vaccine efficacy studies that were not properly conducted are also being reported. In 2002, the Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare organized a research group on vaccine efficacy consisting of epidemiologists. The present symposium, as part of the 9th Annual Meeting of the Japanese Society for Vaccinology in 2005, was planned to further introduce epidemiological concepts useful in studying influenza vaccine efficacy.

Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy children

BACKGROUND

The consequences of influenza in children and adults are mainly absenteeism from school and work. However, the risk of complications is greatest in children and people over 65 years old.

OBJECTIVES

To appraise all comparative studies evaluating the effects of influenza vaccines in healthy children; assess vaccine efficacy (prevention of confirmed influenza) and effectiveness (prevention of influenza-like illness) and document adverse events associated with influenza vaccines.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2007, issue 3); OLD MEDLINE (1950 to 1965); MEDLINE (1966 to September 2007); EMBASE (1974 to September 2007); Biological Abstracts (1969 to September 2007); and Science Citation Index (1974 to September 2007).

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs), cohort and case-control studies of any influenza vaccine in healthy children under 16 years of age.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two review authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data.

MAIN RESULTS

Fifty-one studies with 294,159 observations were included. Sixteen RCTs and 18 cohort studies were included in the analysis of vaccine efficacy and effectiveness. From RCTs, live vaccines showed an efficacy of 82% (95% confidence interval (CI) 71% to 89%) and an effectiveness of 33% (95% CI 28% to 38%) in children older than two compared with placebo or no intervention. Inactivated vaccines had a lower efficacy of 59% (95% CI 41% to 71%) than live vaccines but similar effectiveness: 36% (95% CI 24% to 46%). In children under two, the efficacy of inactivated vaccine was similar to placebo. Variability in study design and presentation of data was such that a meta-analysis of safety outcome data was not feasible. Extensive evidence of reporting bias of safety outcomes from trials of live attenuated vaccines impeded meaningful analysis.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccines are efficacious in children older than two but little evidence is available for children under two. There was a marked difference between vaccine efficacy and effectiveness. No safety comparisons could be carried out, emphasizing the need for standardisation of methods and presentation of vaccine safety data in future studies. It was surprising to find only one study of inactivated vaccine in children under two years, given current recommendations to vaccinate healthy children from six months old in the USA and Canada. If immunisation in children is to be recommended as a public health policy, large-scale studies assessing important outcomes and directly comparing vaccine types are urgently required.

A change in the effectiveness of amantadine for the treatment of influenza over the 2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006 influenza seasons in Japan

A retrospective study of the 2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006 influenza seasons was done to investigate the effectiveness of amantadine and oseltamivir for treating influenza A. Commercial antigen detection kits were used for diagnosis and data were collected from 44 clinics throughout Japan, using an Internet-based system. Oseltamivir was administered to 2775 patients and amantadine to 781 patients. The durations of fever, from the time of the first drug administration and from the onset of fever, were calculated for each patient. In the 2005-2006 season, the duration of fever from the first drug administration was longer for patients who received amantadine than for those who received oseltamivir when the patients were grouped by the time from onset of fever to the start of treatment (P < 0.001 for groups administered at 0-12, 13-24, 25-36 h from the onset) and by patient age (P < 0.001 for under 16 years and P < 0.05 for 16-64 years). Mean values of duration of fever from the first drug administration were 31.3 h, 31.3 h, and 31.9 h for oseltamivir therapy, and 33.3 h, 42.7 h, and 53.3 h for amantadine therapy, in the 2003-2004, 2004-2005, and 2005-2006 seasons, respectively. Reduction in the effectiveness of amantadine over the three influenza seasons were also observed in each age group of 0-6, 7-15, and 16-64 years. The studied season was an independent factor associated with the effectiveness of amantadine by multiple regression analysis. In conclusion, the effectiveness of oseltamivir did not change, but the effectiveness of amantadine was progressively reduced over the three influenza seasons.

A comparison of the effectiveness of zanamivir and oseltamivir for the treatment of influenza A and B

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness of zanamivir with oseltamivir for influenza A and B.

METHODS

1113 patients with influenza A or B were enrolled in the 2006-2007 influenza season. The duration of fever (temperature, >or=37.5 degrees C) and the percentage of patients afebrile at 24 and 48 h after the first dose of zanamivir or oseltamivir were calculated. Virus persistence after zanamivir therapy was also evaluated.

RESULTS

There were marginally significant differences between the duration of fever after the first dose of zanamivir (31.8+/-18.4h) and oseltamivir (35.5+/-23.9h) for influenza A (p<0.05). The duration of fever after starting zanamivir therapy (35.8+/-22.4h) was significantly shorter than that of oseltamivir (52.7+/-31.3h) for influenza B (p<0.001). There were no significant differences between influenza A and B in the percentage of patients afebrile at 24 or 48 h after the first inhalation of zanamivir. The reisolation rate after zanamivir therapy showed marginally significant differences between influenza A and B (<0.05). By multiple regression analysis, therapy (zanamivir or oseltamivir) was the major determinant affecting the duration of fever for influenza B.

CONCLUSION

Zanamivir therapy is more effective than oseltamivir for the treatment of influenza B infection.

Cost–effectiveness analysis of influenza vaccination for people aged 65 and over in Japan

In 2001, Japan launched a national influenza immunisation program for the elderly which provides a subsidy. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the strategy taken in this current program which provides 71% subsidy for all and explore alternative strategies, authors carried out a cost-effectiveness analysis. Authors compared strategies with different levels of subsidy and the use of risk-base targeting by constructing a decision tree model based on the literature. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of alternative strategies were estimated deterministically and probabilistically from societal perspective. Probabilistically estimated mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of current strategy is US$ 15,535 per YOLS, which can be concluded that current program is cost-effective. Authors also conclude that switching from current strategy to strategy which provides 100% subsidy for all, or strategy which provides 100% subsidy for high-risk elderlies only, can be cost-effective as well.

Influenza pandemic preparedness in France: modelling the impact of interventions

BACKGROUND

Influenza pandemics result in excess mortality and social disruption. To assist health authorities update the French pandemic plan, the authors estimated the number of health events (cases, hospitalisations, and deaths) in a pandemic and compared interventions in terms of impact and efficiency.

METHOD

A Monte Carlo simulation model, incorporating probability distributions of key variables, provided estimates of health events (HE) by age and risk group. Input variables were set after literature and expert consultation. The impact of targeted influenza vaccination and antiviral prophylaxis/treatment (oseltamivir) in high risk groups (elderly, chronic diseases), priority (essential professionals), and total populations was compared. Outcome measures were HE avoided, number of doses needed, and direct cost per HE avoided.

RESULTS

Without intervention, an influenza pandemic could result in 14.9 million cases, 0.12 million deaths, and 0.6 million hospitalisations in France. Twenty four per cent of deaths and 40% of hospitalisations would be among high risk groups. With a 25% attack rate, 2000-86,000 deaths could be avoided, depending on population targeted and intervention. If available initially, vaccination of the total population is preferred. If not, for priority populations, seasonal prophylaxis seems the best strategy. For high risk groups, antiviral treatment, although less effective, seems more feasible and cost effective than prophylaxis (respectively 29% deaths avoided; 1800 doses/death avoided and 56% deaths avoided; 18,500 doses/death avoided) and should be chosen, especially if limited drug availability.

CONCLUSION

The results suggest a strong role for antivirals in an influenza pandemic. While this model can compare the impact of different intervention strategies, there remains uncertainty surrounding key variables.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness in healthy 6- to 21-month-old children during the 2003-2004 season

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical effectiveness of influenza vaccine in preventing influenza-like illness (ILI) office visits.

STUDY DESIGN

We analyzed billing and immunization registry data for healthy 6- to 21-month-olds from 5 Denver, Colorado pediatric practices (n = 5193). ILI and pneumonia/influenza (a subset of ILI) were defined from International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification codes for office visits occurring during peak influenza season. Partially vaccinated (PV) and fully vaccinated (FV) patients were defined as having 1 shot and 2 shots, respectively, more than 14 days before the first ILI visit. The likelihood of an ILI visit was determined using a Cox proportional hazards model accounting for patient characteristics, practice site, and immunization status.

RESULTS

A total of 28% of the patients had an ILI office visit, and 5% had a pneumonia/influenza visit. Hazard ratios (HRs) for FV versus UV were 0.31 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.3 to 0.4) for ILI and 0.13 (95% CI = 0.1 to 0.2) for pneumonia/influenza, corresponding to a vaccine effectiveness (1 - HR x 100) of 69% for ILI and 87% for pneumonia/influenza. The corresponding HRs for PV versus UV were 1.0 (95% CI = 0.9 to 1.2) and 1.1 (95% CI = 0.8 to 1.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Although 2 doses of vaccine were 69% effective against ILI office visits and 87% effective against pneumonia/influenza office visits, 1 dose did not prevent office visits during the 2003-2004 influenza season.

Vaccines for preventing influenza in the elderly

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccination of elderly individuals is recommended worldwide and has been targeted toward the elderly and those at serious risk of complications.

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to review the evidence of efficacy, effectiveness and safety of influenza vaccines in individuals aged 65 years or older.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched the following databases on The Cochrane Library, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness (Issue 1, 2006); MEDLINE (January 1966 to March Week 3 2006); EMBASE (Dialog 1974 to 1979; SilverPlatter 1980 to December 2005); Biological Abstracts (SilverPlatter 1969 to December 2004); and Science Citation Index (Web of Science 1974 to December 2004).

SELECTION CRITERIA

We considered randomised, quasi-randomised, cohort and case-control studies assessing efficacy against influenza (laboratory-confirmed cases) or effectiveness against influenza-like illness (ILI) or safety. Any influenza vaccine given independently, in any dose, preparation or time schedule, compared with placebo or with no intervention was considered.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We grouped reports first according to the setting of the study (community or long-term care facilities) and then by level of viral circulation and vaccine matching. We further stratified by co-administration of pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV) and by different types of influenza vaccines. We analysed the following outcomes: influenza, influenza-like illness, hospital admissions, complications and deaths.

MAIN RESULTS

Sixty-four studies were included in the efficacy / effectiveness assessment, resulting in 96 data sets. In homes for elderly individuals (with good vaccine match and high viral circulation) the effectiveness of vaccines against ILI was 23% (6% to 36%) and non-significant against influenza (RR 1.04: 95% CI 0.43 to 2.51). We found no correlation between vaccine coverage and ILI attack rate. Well matched vaccines prevented pneumonia (VE 46%; 30% to 58%), hospital admission (VE 45%; 16% to 64%) and deaths from influenza or pneumonia (VE 42%, 17% to 59%). In elderly individuals living in the community, vaccines were not significantly effective against influenza (RR 0.19; 95% CI 0.02 to 2.01), ILI (RR 1.05: 95% CI 0.58 to 1.89), or pneumonia (RR 0.88; 95% CI 0.64 to 1.20). Well matched vaccines prevented hospital admission for influenza and pneumonia (VE 26%; 12% to 38%) and all-cause mortality (VE 42%; 24% to 55%). After adjustment for confounders, vaccine performance was improved for admissions to hospital for influenza or pneumonia (VE* 27%; 21% to 33%), respiratory diseases (VE* 22%; 15% to 28%) and cardiac disease (VE* 24%; 18% to 30%); and for all-cause mortality (VE* 47%; 39% to 54%). The public health safety profiles of the vaccines appear to be acceptable.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

In long-term care facilities, where vaccination is most effective against complications, the aims of the vaccination campaign are fulfilled, at least in part. However, according to reliable evidence the usefulness of vaccines in the community is modest. The apparent high effectiveness of the vaccines in preventing death from all causes may reflect a baseline imbalance in health status and other systematic differences in the two groups of participants.

Influenza vaccination health impact and cost effectiveness among adults aged 50 to 64 and 65 and older

BACKGROUND

Influenza causes approximately 36,000 deaths per year in the United States despite the presence of an effective vaccine. This assessment of the value of influenza vaccination to the U.S. population is part of an update to the 2001 ranking of clinical preventive services recommended by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force. The forthcoming ranking will include the new recommendation of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices to extend influenza vaccination to adults aged 50 to 64 years.

METHODS

This service is evaluated on the two most important dimensions: burden of disease prevented and cost effectiveness. Study methods, described in a companion article, are designed to ensure consistency across many services.

RESULTS

Over the lifetime of a birth cohort of 4 million, it is estimated that about 275,000 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) would be saved if influenza vaccination were offered annually to all people after age 50. Eighty percent of the QALYs saved (220,000) would be achieved by offering the vaccine only to persons aged 65 and older. In year 2000 dollars, the cost effectiveness of influenza vaccination is $980 per QALY saved in persons aged 65 and older, and $28,000 per QALY saved in persons aged 50 to 64. When the costs of patient time and travel are excluded, the cost effectiveness ratio of vaccinating 50- to 64-year-olds decreases to $7200 per QALY saved, and vaccinating those aged 65 and older saves $17 per person vaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccination is a high-impact, cost-effective service for persons aged 65 and older. Vaccinations are also cost effective for persons aged 50 to 64.

Influenza vaccine in patients with asthma

Influenza virus continues to be a major cause of respiratory infection and is an important contributor to morbidity and mortality in at-risk populations, including those with underlying pulmonary conditions such as asthma. Vaccination with inactivated influenza vaccine remains the most popular method in controlling influenza through prevention. Current guidelines recommend the administration of the influenza vaccine to all patients with asthma. However, a third or fewer of those patients with asthma are currently receiving this vaccine. In this review, the risk-versus-benefit of influenza vaccination in children and adults with asthma is evaluated, based on the current evidence.

Quantifying influenza vaccine efficacy and antigenic distance

We introduce a new measure of antigenic distance between influenza A vaccine and circulating strains. The measure correlates well with efficacies of the H3N2 influenza A component of the annual vaccine between 1971 and 2004, as do results of a theory of the immune response to influenza following vaccination. This new measure of antigenic distance is correlated with vaccine efficacy to a greater degree than are current state of the art phylogenetic sequence analyses or ferret antisera inhibition assays. We suggest that this new measure of antigenic distance be used in the design of the annual influenza vaccine and in the interpretation of vaccine efficacy monitoring.

Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy children

BACKGROUND

In children and adults the consequences of influenza are mainly absences from school and work, however the risk of complications is greatest in children and people over 65 years old.

OBJECTIVES

To appraise all comparative studies evaluating the effects of influenza vaccines in healthy children; assess vaccine efficacy (prevention of confirmed influenza) and effectiveness (prevention of influenza-like illness) and document adverse events associated with receiving influenza vaccines.

SEARCH STRATEGY

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library Issue 1, 2005); OLD MEDLINE (1966 to 1969); MEDLINE (1969 to December 2004); EMBASE (1974 to December 2004); Biological Abstracts (1969 to December 2004); and Science Citation Index (1974 to December 2004). We wrote to vaccine manufacturers and a number of corresponding authors of studies in the review.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Any randomised controlled trials (RCTs), cohort and case-control studies of any influenza vaccine in healthy children under 16 years old.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors independently assessed trial quality and extracted data.

MAIN RESULTS

Fifty-one studies involving 263,987 children were included. Seventeen papers were translated from Russian. Fourteen RCTs and 11 cohort studies were included in the analysis of vaccine efficacy and effectiveness. From RCTs, live vaccines showed an efficacy of 79% (95% confidence interval (CI) 48% to 92%) and an effectiveness of 33% (95% CI 28% to 38%) in children older than two years compared with placebo or no intervention. Inactivated vaccines had a lower efficacy of 59% (95% CI 41% to 71%) than live vaccines but similar effectiveness: 36% (95% CI 24% to 46%). In children under two, the efficacy of inactivated vaccine was similar to placebo. Thirty-four reports containing safety outcomes were included, 22 including live vaccines, 8 inactivated vaccines and 4 both types. The most commonly presented short-term outcomes were temperature and local reactions. The variability in design of studies and presentation of data was such that meta-analysis of safety outcome data was not feasible.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccines are efficacious in children older than two years but little evidence is available for children under two. There was a marked difference between vaccine efficacy and effectiveness. That no safety comparisons could be carried out emphasizes the need for standardisation of methods and presentation of vaccine safety data in future studies. It was surprising to find only one study of inactivated vaccine in children under two years, given recent recommendations to vaccinate healthy children from six months old in the USA and Canada. If immunisation in children is to be recommended as public-health policy, large-scale studies assessing important outcomes and directly comparing vaccine types are urgently required.

Efficacy and effectiveness of influenza vaccines in elderly people: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Influenza vaccination of elderly individuals is recommended worldwide. Our aim was to review the evidence of efficacy and effectiveness of influenza vaccines in individuals aged 65 years or older.

METHODS

We searched five electronic databases to December, 2004, in any language, for randomised (n=5), cohort (n=49), and case-control (n=10) studies, assessing efficacy against influenza (reduction in laboratory-confirmed cases) or effectiveness against influenza-like illness (reduction in symptomatic cases). We expressed vaccine efficacy or effectiveness as a proportion, using the formula VE=1-relative risk (RR) or VE*=1-odds ratio (OR). We analysed the following outcomes: influenza, influenza-like illness, hospital admissions, complications, and deaths.

FINDINGS

In homes for elderly individuals (with good vaccine match and high viral circulation) the effectiveness of vaccines against influenza-like illness was 23% (95% CI 6-36) and non-significant against influenza (RR 1.04, 0.43-2.51). Well matched vaccines prevented pneumonia (VE 46%, 30-58) and hospital admission (VE 45%, 16-64) for and deaths from influenza or pneumonia (VE 42%, 17-59), and reduced all-cause mortality (VE 60%, 23-79). In elderly individuals living in the community, vaccines were not significantly effective against influenza (RR 0.19, 0.02-2.01), influenza-like illness (RR 1.05, 0.58-1.89), or pneumonia (RR 0.88, 0.64-1.20). Well matched vaccines prevented hospital admission for influenza and pneumonia (VE 26%, 12-38) and all-cause mortality (VE 42%, 24-55). After adjustment for confounders, vaccine performance was improved for admissions to hospital for influenza or pneumonia (VE* 27%, 21-33), respiratory diseases (VE* 22%, 15-28), and cardiac disease (VE* 24%, 18-30), and for all-cause mortality (VE* 47%, 39-54).

INTERPRETATION

In long-term care facilities, where vaccination is most effective against complications, the aims of the vaccination campaign are fulfilled, at least in part. However, according to reliable evidence the usefulness of vaccines in the community is modest.

Assessment of the efficacy and effectiveness of influenza vaccines in healthy children: systematic review

BACKGROUND

We aimed to assess evidence of efficacy and effectiveness of live attenuated and inactivated influenza vaccines in children up to 16 years of age.

METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Library, MEDLINE, EMBASE Biological Abstracts, and Science Citation Index to June, 2004, in any language, and contacted vaccine manufacturers and authors of relevant studies to identify additional data. We included randomised, cohort, and case-control studies comparing efficacy of vaccines against influenza (reduction in laboratory-confirmed cases), effectiveness of vaccines against influenza-like illness (reduction in symptomatic cases), or both, with placebo or no intervention. We analysed the following outcomes: influenza, influenza-like illness, admissions, school absences, complications, and secondary transmission.

FINDINGS

We included 14 randomised controlled trials, eight cohort studies, one case-control study, and one randomised controlled trial of intraepidemic use of the vaccines. Live attenuated influenza vaccines had 79% efficacy and 38% effectiveness in children older than 2 years compared with placebo or no immunisation. Inactivated vaccines had lower efficacy (65%) than live attenuated vaccines, and in children aged 2 years or younger they had similar effects to placebo. Effectiveness of inactivated vaccines was about 28% in children older than 2 years. Vaccines were effective in reducing long school absences (relative risk 0.14 [95% CI 0.07-0.27]). Studies assessing the effects of vaccines against secondary cases, lower-respiratory tract disease, acute otitis media, and hospital stay suggested no difference with placebo or standard care, but lacked statistical power.

INTERPRETATION

Influenza vaccines (especially two-dose live attenuated vaccines) are efficacious in children older than 2 years. Efficacy and effectiveness of the vaccines differed strikingly. Only two small studies assessed the effects of influenza vaccines on hospital admissions and no studies assessed reductions in mortality, serious complications, and community transmission of influenza. If influenza immunisation in children is to be recommended as public-health policy, large-scale studies assessing such important outcomes and undertaking direct comparisons of vaccines are urgently needed.