Mortality risks in children aged 5-14 years in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic empirical analysis

A study protocol for predictors of post-discharge mortality among children aged 5-14 years admitted to tertiary hospitals in Tanzania: A prospective observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Globally, millions of children and adolescents die every year from treatable and preventable causes. Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 55% of deaths of children aged 5-14 years in 2017. Despite this high burden, minimal effort has been directed toward reducing mortality among older children and adolescents in comparison to under-fives. Mortality rates of children post-discharge vary between 1-18% in limited-resource countries and are reported to exceed in-hospital mortality. In Tanzania, there is limited data regarding post-discharge mortality and its predictors among children aged 5-14 years.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to determine the post-discharge mortality rate and its predictors among children aged 5-14 years admitted to pediatric wards at MNH, MOI, and JKCI.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This will be a prospective observational cohort study that will be conducted among children aged 5-14 years admitted to pediatric wards at Muhimbili National Hospital, Jakaya Kikwete Cardiac Institue, and Muhimbili Orthopedic Institue in Dar-Es-Salaam, Tanzania. Data will be collected using a structured questionnaire and will include socio-demographic characteristics, clinical factors, and patients' outcomes. Post-discharge follow-up will be done at months 1, 2, and 3 after discharge via phone call. Data will be analyzed using SPSS version 23. The association of demographic, social economic, and clinical factors with the outcome of all causes, 3 months post-discharge mortality will be determined by Cox regression, and survival rates will be displayed through Kaplan-Meier curves.

DISCUSSION

This study will determine post-discharge mortality among children aged 5-14 years and its predictors in Tanzania. This information is expected to provide baseline data that will be useful for raising awareness of clinicians on how to prioritize and plan a proper follow-up of children following hospital discharge. These data may also be used to guide policy development to address and reduce the high burden of older children and adolescent mortality and may be used for future studies including those aiming to develop prediction models for post-discharge mortality among older children and adolescents.

What do children aged 5 to 14 years die from in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil? Trend analysis of the period 2000-2019

Abstract This study investigated the magnitude and trends of cause-specific mortality among children 5 to 14 years of age in the state of Rio de Janeiro (RJ) from 2000 to 2019. We performed an ecological study, using data from the Mortality Information System (MIS). We calculated mortality rates per 100,000 children by chapters, groups, and categories of causes of death (ICD-10). Trends were estimated by joinpoint regression. Mortality rates among children aged 10 to 14 years were higher than those among children 5 to 9. The five leading causes of death were the same in both age groups, but they ranked differently. The two leading ones were external causes and neoplasms (31% and 15% among children aged 5 to 9 years; 45% and 11% among children aged 10 to 14 years). Among children 5 to 9 years, the mortality trend showed an annual decline (8%) from 2011 to 2015. Among children aged 10 to 14 years, the annual decline was 1.3% from 2000 to 2019. Mortality due to external causes decreased in both age groups, except for the category “Assault by unspecified firearm” (boys, 10 to 14 years) and “Unspecified drowning and submersion” (boys, 5 to 9 years). Mortality caused by neoplasms remained steady in both age groups. Infectious and respiratory diseases decreased differently between the two groups. Most causes of death are preventable or treatable, indicating the need for health and intersectoral investments.

What do children aged 5 to 14 years die from in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil? Trend analysis of the period 2000-2019

This study investigated the magnitude and trends of cause-specific mortality among children 5 to 14 years of age in the state of Rio de Janeiro (RJ) from 2000 to 2019. We performed an ecological study, using data from the Mortality Information System (MIS). We calculated mortality rates per 100,000 children by chapters, groups, and categories of causes of death (ICD-10). Trends were estimated by joinpoint regression. Mortality rates among children aged 10 to 14 years were higher than those among children 5 to 9. The five leading causes of death were the same in both age groups, but they ranked differently. The two leading ones were external causes and neoplasms (31% and 15% among children aged 5 to 9 years; 45% and 11% among children aged 10 to 14 years). Among children 5 to 9 years, the mortality trend showed an annual decline (8%) from 2011 to 2015. Among children aged 10 to 14 years, the annual decline was 1.3% from 2000 to 2019. Mortality due to external causes decreased in both age groups, except for the category "Assault by unspecified firearm" (boys, 10 to 14 years) and "Unspecified drowning and submersion" (boys, 5 to 9 years). Mortality caused by neoplasms remained steady in both age groups. Infectious and respiratory diseases decreased differently between the two groups. Most causes of death are preventable or treatable, indicating the need for health and intersectoral investments.

Characteristics and temporal trends of mortality rates in children and adolescents in Mato Grosso and Brazil, 2009-2020

OBJECTIVE

to analyze the characteristics and temporal trend of mortality rates in the population aged 5 to 14 years in Mato Grosso state and in Brazil, from 2009 to 2020.

METHODS

this was an ecological time-series study, based on data taken from the Mortality Information System. Descriptive and trend analyses were performed, using the joinpoint regression model and calculating the average annual percentage change (AAPC).

RESULTS

in Brazil and in Mato Grosso state, deaths were predominantly male, preventable and due to external causes. A falling trend was identified for Brazil (5-9 years AAPC: -2.9; 95%CI -4.3;-1.6 and 10-14 years AAPC: -2.5; 95%CI -3.3;-1.8), while a stationary trend was found in Mato Grosso (5-9 years AAPC: -2.0; 95%CI -5.6;1.7 and 10-14 years AAPC: -0.1; 95%CI -5.9;6.1).

CONCLUSION

the stable trend of mortality at high levels demands urgent interventions to reduce it.

Comprehensive assessment of age-specific mortality rate and its incremental changes using a composite measure: A sub-national analysis of rural Indian women

Background

Diverse socio-economic and cultural issues contribute to adverse health outcomes and increased mortality rates among rural Indian women across different age categories. The present study aims to comprehensively assess age-specific mortality rates (ASMR) and their temporal trends using a composite measure at the sub-national level for rural Indian females to capture cross-state differences.

Materials and methods

A total of 19 states were included in the study to construct a composite age-specific mortality index for 2011 (base year) and 2018 (reference year) and examine the incremental changes in the index values across these years at the sub-national level in India. Sub-index values were calculated for each component age group and were subsequently used to compute the composite ASMR index using the geometric mean method. Based on the incremental changes, the performance of states was categorized into four different typologies.

Results

Improvement in mortality index scores in the 0-4 years age group was documented for all states. The mortality rates for the 60+ age group were recorded to be high for all states. Kerala emerged as the overall top performer in terms of mortality index scores, while Bihar and Jharkhand were at the bottom of the mortality index table. The overall mortality composite score has shown minor improvement from base year to reference year at all India level.

Conclusion

An overall reduction in the mortality rates of rural Indian women has been observed over the years in India. However, in states like Bihar and Jharkhand, mortality is high and has considerable scope for improvement. The success of public health interventions to reduce the under-five mortality rate is evident as the female rural mortality rates have reduced sizably for all states. Nevertheless, there is still sizable scope for reducing mortality rates for other component age groups. Additionally, there is a need to divert attention toward the female geriatric (60+ years) population as the mortality rates are still high.

The shifting rural-urban gap in mortality over the life course in low- and middle-income countries

Studies have shown that children in rural areas face excess risks of dying, but the little research on spatial inequalities in adult mortality has reached mixed conclusions. We examine rural-urban differences in mortality in 53 low- and middle-income countries. We consider how the rural-urban mortality gap evolves from birth to age 60 by estimating mortality based on birth and sibling histories from 138 Demographic and Health Surveys run between 1992 and 2018. We observe excess rural mortality until age 15, finding the largest differences between urban and rural sectors among 1-59-month-olds. While we cannot claim higher mortality among urban adults than those in rural areas, we find a reduced gap between the sectors over the life course and a diminishing urban advantage in adult mortality with age. This shift over the life course reflects a divergence in the epidemiologic transition between the rural and urban sectors.

Nutritional and immunization status of under-five children of India and Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

The nutritional and immunization status of children can play an important role in determining their future health status of a particular country. The aim of the present study is to investigate the nutritional and immunization status of under-five children in India and Bangladesh, and to find the difference in the status between these two countries.

METHODS

We have used the National Family Health Survey data, 2015-2016 of India and Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey, 2017-2018 datasets. The sample sizes are 222,418, among them 8759 and 8759 children for India and Bangladesh respectively. The nutritional status of under-five children is measured by standard anthropometric indicators of height-for-age (HAZ) and weight-for-age (WAZ). Regarding child immunization status, only BCG, DPT, polio and measles vaccinations are considered for the present study. Multiple binary logistic model has been used for analysing the data.

RESULTS

This study reveals that the prevalence of stunting and underweight of under-five children in India are higher than Bangladeshi children. Secondary and higher educated mothers are more likely of having normal HAZ and WAZ children than up to primary educated mothers for both countries. Chances of having normal HAZ and WAZ are higher among non-poor category for both countries. The present study also shows that immunization status of Bangladeshi children is better than Indian children except measles. Religion of mother also shows influence on immunization status of children in India whereas Bangladesh shows no significant results regarding religion. Mother's educational attainment and wealth index show influence on immunization status among children for both countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The study concludes that a remarkable number of under-five children are suffering from under nutrition for both countries, however Bangladeshi children have better nutritional and immunization status compared to Indian children. Higher wealth index, better educational attainment and lower unemployment of Bangladeshi mothers may be the causes for better nutritional and immunization status of children. Mother's socio-economic factors have significant impact on determining the child's health status. Our findings can help to government of Indian and Bangladesh for taking health policy to improve under-five children nutritional and immunization status.

Mortality during and following hospital admission among school-aged children: a cohort study

Background: Far less is known about the reasons for hospitalization or mortality during and after hospitalization among school-aged children than among under-fives in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to describe common types of illness causing hospitalisation; inpatient mortality and post-discharge mortality among school-age children at Kilifi County Hospital (KCH), Kenya.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study of children 5−12 years old admitted at KCH, 2007 to 2016, and resident within the Kilifi Health Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS). Children discharged alive were followed up for one year by quarterly census. Outcomes were inpatient and one-year post-discharge mortality.

Results: We included 3,907 admissions among 3,196 children with a median age of 7 years 8 months (IQR 74−116 months). Severe anaemia (792, 20%), malaria (749, 19%), sickle cell disease (408, 10%), trauma (408, 10%), and severe pneumonia (340, 8.7%) were the commonest reasons for admission. Comorbidities included 623 (16%) with severe wasting, 386 (10%) with severe stunting, 90 (2.3%) with oedematous malnutrition and 194 (5.0%) with HIV infection. 132 (3.4%) children died during hospitalisation. Inpatient death was associated with signs of disease severity, age, bacteraemia, HIV infection and severe stunting. After discharge, 89/2,997 (3.0%) children died within one year during 2,853 child-years observed (31.2 deaths [95%CI, 25.3−38.4] per 1,000 child-years). 63/89 (71%) of post-discharge deaths occurred within three months and 45% of deaths occurred outside hospital. Post-discharge mortality was positively associated with weak pulse, tachypnoea, severe anaemia, HIV infection and severe wasting and negatively associated with malaria. 

Conclusions: Reasons for admissions are markedly different from those reported in under-fives. There was significant post-discharge mortality, suggesting hospitalisation is a marker of risk in this population. Our findings inform guideline development to include risk stratification, targeted post-discharge care and facilitate access to healthcare to improve survival in the early months post-discharge in school-aged children.

Mortality during and following hospital admission among school-aged children: a cohort study

Background: Far less is known about the reasons for hospitalization or mortality during and after hospitalization among school-aged children than among under-fives in low- and middle-income countries. This study aimed to describe common types of illness causing hospitalisation; inpatient mortality and post-discharge mortality among school-age children at Kilifi County Hospital (KCH), Kenya. Methods: A retrospective cohort study of children 5-12 years old admitted at KCH, 2007 to 2016, and resident within the Kilifi Health Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS). Children discharged alive were followed up for one year by quarterly census. Outcomes were inpatient and one-year post-discharge mortality. Results: We included 3,907 admissions among 3,196 children with a median age of 7 years 8 months (IQR 74-116 months). Severe anaemia (792, 20%), malaria (749, 19%), sickle cell disease (408, 10%), trauma (408, 10%), and severe pneumonia (340, 8.7%) were the commonest reasons for admission. Comorbidities included 623 (16%) with severe wasting, 386 (10%) with severe stunting, 90 (2.3%) with oedematous malnutrition and 194 (5.0%) with HIV infection. 132 (3.4%) children died during hospitalisation. Inpatient death was associated with signs of disease severity, age, bacteraemia, HIV infection and severe stunting. After discharge, 89/2,997 (3.0%) children died within one year during 2,853 child-years observed (31.2 deaths [95%CI, 25.3-38.4] per 1,000 child-years). 63/89 (71%) of post-discharge deaths occurred within three months and 45% of deaths occurred outside hospital. Post-discharge mortality was positively associated with weak pulse, tachypnoea, severe anaemia, HIV infection and severe wasting and negatively associated with malaria.  Conclusions: Reasons for admissions are markedly different from those reported in under-fives. There was significant post-discharge mortality, suggesting hospitalisation is a marker of risk in this population. Our findings inform guideline development to include risk stratification, targeted post-discharge care and facilitate access to healthcare to improve survival in the early months post-discharge in school-aged children.

National and Subnational Trends in Mortality and Causes of Death in Chinese Children and Adolescents Aged 5-19 Years From 1953 to 2016

PURPOSE

We aimed to analyze the recent trends of mortality and rankings of causes of death in Chinese children and adolescents from 1953 to 2016.

METHODS

Data on mortality and causes of death in Chinese children and adolescents aged 5-19 years were extracted from the China Health Statistics Yearbook and the Global Burden of Disease Study from 1953 to 2016. Mortality variations were analyzed by year, age, sex, province, and causes of death.

RESULTS

The mortality of Chinese children and adolescents aged 5-19 years declined steadily from 1953 (366.03/100,000) to 2016 (27.21), with the largest reduction in adolescents aged 15-19 years and the smallest reduction in those aged 10-14 years. Large subnational disparities for all-cause mortality existed in national 31 provinces with higher mortality in western regions compared with eastern regions, but with narrowing disparities between 1981 and 2010. Injuries dominated the causes of death compared with noncommunicable diseases and communicable, maternal and neonatal, and nutritional diseases from 1990 (58.13/100,000 vs. 32.10 and 14.31) to 2016 (22.65 vs. 13.00 and 2.93). In 2016, the leading three causes of death were road injuries (8.30/100,000), drowning (7.25), and leukemia (2.60). Drowning was the leading cause of death for 5- to 14-year-olds, but road injuries have been the leading cause for 15- to 19-year-olds of both sexes since 2010.

CONCLUSIONS

Although mortality in Chinese adolescents now stands at just 7% of rates in the 1950s, there is a need to address continuing inequalities across sex, economic status, and region.

Trends and seasonality in cause-specific mortality among children under 15 years in Guangzhou, China, 2008-2018

BACKGROUND

This study analyzed the trends and seasonality in mortality among children aged 0-14 years in Guangzhou, China during 2008-2018. Understanding the epidemiology of this public health problem can guide policy development for children mortality prevention.

METHODS

A population-based epidemiological retrospective study was conducted. Seven thousand two hundred sixty-five individual data of children mortality were obtained from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The Poisson regression was used to quantify the annual average reduction rate and the difference in mortality rate between sex and age groups. Incidence ratio with 95% confidence interval (CI) was estimated to determine the temperaol variations in mortality by month, season, school term, day of the week and between holidays and other days.

RESULTS

Between 2008 and 2018, the children mortality rate in Guangzhou decreased from 54.0 to 34.3 per 100,000 children, with an annual reduction rate of 4.6% (95% CI: 1.1%-8.1%), especially the under-5 mortality rate decreased by 8.3% (95% CI: 4.8%-11.6%) per year. Decline trends varied by causes of death, even with an upward trend for the mortality of asphyxia and neurological diseases. The risk of death among males children was 1.33 times (95% CI: 1.20-1.47) of that of females. The distribution of causes of death differed by age group. Maternal and perinatal, congenital and pneumonia were the top three causes of death in infants and cancer accounted for 17% of deaths in children aged 1-14 years. Moreover, the injury-related mortality showed significant temporal variations with higher risk during the weekend. And there was a summer peak for drowning and a winter peak for asphyxia.

CONCLUSIONS

Guangzhou has made considerable progress in reducing mortality over the last decade. The findings of characteristics of children mortality would provide important information for the development and implementation of integrated interventions targeted specific age groups and causes of death.

Disease spectrum analysis of hospitalized children in China: A study of 18 tertiary children's hospitals

IMPORTANCE

Morbidity and mortality of children are important indicators of the performance of the public health system in any country. In China, the children's disease spectrum has gradually changed in recent years. However, the gender- and age-specific disease spectrum for hospitalized children under 15 years old is still unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To explore the gender- and age-based distribution of diseases in hospitalized children under 15 years in China.

METHODS

Medical records home page data for 2016 to 2018 were collected from 18 tertiary children's hospitals in China. The gender- and age-specific disease spectrum was analyzed, using the tenth revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10).

RESULTS

The most common diseases were those of the respiratory system (25.7% of all 2 232 142 hospitalized children). The top three diseases for boys were diseases of the respiratory system (25.6%), diseases of the digestive system (11.4%) and certain conditions originating in the perinatal period (8.6%). The top three diseases for girls were diseases of the respiratory system (25.9%), certain conditions originating in the perinatal period (10.1%), and factors influencing health status and contact with health services (9.4%). The most common diseases for children under 1 year old were certain conditions originating in the perinatal period (38.1%). For all other age groups, the most common conditions were respiratory diseases (33.8% for those aged 1-3 years, 25.2% for those aged 4-6 years, and 12.2% for those aged 7-14 years).

INTERPRETATION

This study analyzed the medical records home pages of 18 children's hospitals to provide the first overview of the disease spectrum and its gender- and age-specific distribution among children in China.

Effectiveness of a community-based water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) intervention in reduction of diarrhoea among under-five children: Evidence from a repeated cross-sectional study (2007-2015) in rural Bangladesh

Diarrhoea, the most common disease directly related to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), still remains one of the most significant health problems among children under-five worldwide. In this reality, BRAC, the largest NGO in the world initiated a comprehensive WASH intervention in 50 upazilas (sub-districts) of Bangladesh in 2007 which was later scaled up to cover 150 upazilas in two subsequent phases. The intervention period of the programme was 2007-2011. The present study encompassed 30 upazilas of the first phase of intervention. The aim of the study was to investigate the effectiveness of this intervention on reduction of diarrhoea among under-five children, and to identify the factors associated with childhood diarrhoea. A repeated cross-sectional study design was followed, and a population-based survey was carried out on four occasions: baseline (2007), midline (2009), endline (2011), and post-endline (2015) among 4,775 households. This analysis considers only households having at least one under-five children. Absence of handwashing practice with soap after defecation and before eating food, unclean latrine condition, and unsafe disposal of child faeces were identified as significant risk factors associated with under-five diarrhoea from Log-binomial regression. The prevalence of under-five diarrhoea within the past 2 weeks of the survey declined from 13.7% at baseline to 3.6% at end-line (p < 0.001) in the WASH intervention area. However, the progress seemingly stalled after 2011, which may have occurred due to the lack of improvement in unsafe disposal of child faeces and unclean latrine condition after the intervention period. Study findings suggest that, to reduce the prevalence of childhood diarrhoea it is important to promote safe disposal of child faeces, maintaining cleanliness of latrines, and washing hand with soap at critical times, beyond merely increasing the sanitation coverage. Findings also underline the necessity of maintaining a small-scale monitoring component involving local community, such as a WatSan committee (a local committee comprising the user communities for supervising WASH related activities) for periodic monitoring at household level for a certain period after the program intervention works to make the behavioural change more sustainable and to keep the reduction rate of under-five diarrhoeal prevalence steady.

Global, regional, and national mortality trends in older children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from 1990 to 2016: an analysis of empirical data

Background

From 1990 to 2016, the mortality of children younger than 5 years decreased by more than half, and there are plentiful data regarding mortality in this age group through which we can track global progress in reducing the under-5 mortality rate. By contrast, little is known on how the mortality risk among older children (5–9 years) and young adolescents (10–14 years) has changed in this time. We aimed to estimate levels and trends in mortality of children aged 5–14 years in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016.

Methods

In this analysis of empirical data, we expanded the United Nations Inter-agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation database containing data on children younger than 5 years with 5530 data points regarding children aged 5–14 years. Mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 were obtained from nationally representative birth histories, data on household deaths reported in population censuses, and nationwide systems of civil registration and vital statistics. These data were used in a Bayesian B-spline bias-reduction model to generate smoothed trends with 90% uncertainty intervals, to determine the probability of a child aged 5 years dying before reaching age 15 years.

Findings

Globally, the probability of a child dying between the ages 5 years and 15 years was 7·5 deaths (90% uncertainty interval 7·2–8·3) per 1000 children in 2016, which was less than a fifth of the risk of dying between birth and age 5 years, which was 41 deaths (39–44) per 1000 children. The mortality risk in children aged 5–14 years decreased by 51% (46–54) between 1990 and 2016, despite not being specifically targeted by health interventions. The annual number of deaths in this age group decreased from 1·7 million (1·7 million–1·8 million) to 1 million (0·9 million–1·1 million) in 1990–2016. In 1990–2000, mortality rates in children aged 5–14 years decreased faster than among children aged 0–4 years. However, since 2000, mortality rates in children younger than 5 years have decreased faster than mortality rates in children aged 5–14 years. The annual rate of reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years has been 4·0% (3·6–4·3) since 2000, versus 2·7% (2·3–3·0) in children aged 5–14 years. Older children and young adolescents in sub-Saharan Africa are disproportionately more likely to die than those in other regions; 55% (51–58) of deaths of children of this age occur in sub-Saharan Africa, despite having only 21% of the global population of children aged 5–14 years. In 2016, 98% (98–99) of all deaths of children aged 5–14 years occurred in low-income and middle-income countries, and seven countries alone accounted for more than half of the total number of deaths of these children.

Interpretation

Increased efforts are required to accelerate reductions in mortality among older children and to ensure that they benefit from health policies and interventions as much as younger children.

Funding

UN Children's Fund, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, United States Agency for International Development.

Trends in cause-specific mortality among children aged 5-14 years from 2005 to 2016 in India, China, Brazil, and Mexico: an analysis of nationally representative mortality studies

BACKGROUND

With global survival increasing for children younger than 5 years of age, attention is required to reduce the approximately 1 million deaths of children aged 5-14 years occurring every year. Causes of death at these ages remain poorly documented. We aimed to explore trends in mortality by causes of death in India, China, Brazil, and Mexico, which are home to about 40% of the world's children aged 5-14 years and experience more than 200 000 deaths annually at these ages.

METHODS

We examined data on 244 401 deaths in children aged 5-14 years from four nationally representative data sources that obtained direct distributions of causes of death: the Indian Million Death Study, the Chinese Disease Surveillance Points, mortality data from the Mexican Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía, and mortality data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. We present data on 12 main disease groups in all countries, with breakdown by communicable and nutritional diseases, non-communicable diseases, injuries, and ill-defined causes. To calculate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each cause, we applied the national cause of death distribution to the UN mortality envelopes for 2005-16 for each country.

FINDINGS

Unlike Brazil, China, and Mexico, communicable diseases still account for nearly half of deaths in India in children aged 5-14 years (73 920 [46·1%] of 160 330 estimated deaths in 2016). In 2016, India had the highest death rates in nearly every category, including from communicable diseases. Fast declines among girls in communicable disease mortality narrowed the gap by 2016 with boys in India (32·6 deaths per 100 000 girls vs 26·2 per 100 000 boys) and China (1·7 vs 1·5). In China, injuries accounted for the greatest proportions of deaths (20 970 [53·2%] of 39 430 estimated deaths, in which drowning was a leading cause). The homicide death rate at ages 10-14 years was higher for boys than for girls in Brazil, increasing annually by an average of 0·7% (0·3-1·1). In India and China, the suicide death rates were higher for girls than for boys at ages 10-14 years. By contrast, in Mexico it was higher for boys than for girls, increasing annually by an average of 2·8% (2·0-3·6). Deaths from transport injuries, drowning, and cancer are common in all four countries, with transport accidents among the top three causes of death for both sexes in all countries, except for Indian girls, and cancer in the top three causes for both sexes in Mexico, Brazil, and China.

INTERPRETATION

Most of the deaths that occurred between 2005 and 2016 in children aged 5-14 years in India, China, Brazil, and Mexico arose from preventable or treatable conditions. This age group is important for extending some of the global disease-specific targets developed for children younger than 5 years of age. Interventions to control non-communicable diseases and injuries and to strengthen cause of death reporting systems are also required.

FUNDING

WHO and the University of Toronto Connaught Global Challenge.

Puberty and the Evolution of Developmental Science

In recent decades, theoretical and methodological advances have operated synergistically to advance understanding of puberty and prompt increasingly comprehensive models that engage with the temporal, psychosocial, and biological dimensions of this maturational milepost. This integrative overview discusses these theoretical and methodological advances and their implications for research and intervention to promote human development in the context of changing maturational schedules and massive ongoing social transformations.

Child and Adolescent Health From 1990 to 2015: Findings From the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2015 Study

Importance

Comprehensive and timely monitoring of disease burden in all age groups, including children and adolescents, is essential for improving population health.

Objective

To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality and nonfatal health outcomes among children and adolescents from 1990 to 2015 to provide a framework for policy discussion.

Evidence Review

Cause-specific mortality and nonfatal health outcomes were analyzed for 195 countries and territories by age group, sex, and year from 1990 to 2015 using standardized approaches for data processing and statistical modeling, with subsequent analysis of the findings to describe levels and trends across geography and time among children and adolescents 19 years or younger. A composite indicator of income, education, and fertility was developed (Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) for each geographic unit and year, which evaluates the historical association between SDI and health loss.

Findings

Global child and adolescent mortality decreased from 14.18 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 14.09 million to 14.28 million) deaths in 1990 to 7.26 million (95% UI, 7.14 million to 7.39 million) deaths in 2015, but progress has been unevenly distributed. Countries with a lower SDI had a larger proportion of mortality burden (75%) in 2015 than was the case in 1990 (61%). Most deaths in 2015 occurred in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Global trends were driven by reductions in mortality owing to infectious, nutritional, and neonatal disorders, which in the aggregate led to a relative increase in the importance of noncommunicable diseases and injuries in explaining global disease burden. The absolute burden of disability in children and adolescents increased 4.3% (95% UI, 3.1%-5.6%) from 1990 to 2015, with much of the increase owing to population growth and improved survival for children and adolescents to older ages. Other than infectious conditions, many top causes of disability are associated with long-term sequelae of conditions present at birth (eg, neonatal disorders, congenital birth defects, and hemoglobinopathies) and complications of a variety of infections and nutritional deficiencies. Anemia, developmental intellectual disability, hearing loss, epilepsy, and vision loss are important contributors to childhood disability that can arise from multiple causes. Maternal and reproductive health remains a key cause of disease burden in adolescent females, especially in lower-SDI countries. In low-SDI countries, mortality is the primary driver of health loss for children and adolescents, whereas disability predominates in higher-SDI locations; the specific pattern of epidemiological transition varies across diseases and injuries.

Conclusions and Relevance

Consistent international attention and investment have led to sustained improvements in causes of health loss among children and adolescents in many countries, although progress has been uneven. The persistence of infectious diseases in some countries, coupled with ongoing epidemiologic transition to injuries and noncommunicable diseases, require all countries to carefully evaluate and implement appropriate strategies to maximize the health of their children and adolescents and for the international community to carefully consider which elements of child and adolescent health should be monitored.

Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.

METHODS

We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.

INTERPRETATION

At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.