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He S, Dong W, Fairley CK, Li Z, Wei Y, Lai H, Li R, Lu P, Shen M, Wu Z, Zhang L. Optimizing health resource allocation for improving timely HIV diagnosis in China. J Int AIDS Soc 2024; 27:e26221. [PMID: 38444111 PMCID: PMC10935715 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.26221] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/16/2023] [Accepted: 01/30/2024] [Indexed: 03/07/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) updated the 95-95-95 targets for the HIV endgame in 2030. To achieve the first target in a timely manner, we investigate the optimized strategy of resource allocation to maximize timely HIV diagnosis in 14 populations in China. METHODS We developed a mathematical model by integrating epidemiological, demographical and behavioural data from 12 high-risk and two general populations to evaluate the impact of various resource allocation strategies of HIV testing on HIV incidence in China. We identified the optimized allocation strategy that maximizes the number of HIV diagnoses at an estimated total spending on HIV tests in China and calculated the per-capita cost of new HIV case detection. RESULTS We estimated that 144,795 new HIV cases may occur annually in 14 populations in China, with a total annual spending of US$2.8 billion on HIV testing. The largest proportion of spending was allocated to general males (44.0%), followed by general females (42.6%) and pregnant women (5.1%). Despite this allocation strategy, only 45.5% (65,867/144,795, timely diagnosis rate) of annual new infections were diagnosed within a year of acquisition, with a cost of $42,852 required for each new HIV case detection. By optimizing the allocation of HIV testing resources within the same spending amount, we found that general females received the highest proportion of spending allocation (45.1%), followed by low-risk men who have sex with men (13.9%) and pregnant women (8.4%). In contrast, the proportion of spending allocation for the general males decreased to 0.2%. With this optimized strategy, we estimated that 120,755 (83.4%) of annual new infections would be diagnosed within a year of acquisition, with the cost required for one HIV case detection reduced to $23,364/case. Further spending increases could allow for significant increases in HIV testing among lower-risk populations. CONCLUSIONS Optimizing resource allocation for HIV testing in high-risk populations would improve HIV timely diagnosis rate of new infections and reduce cost per HIV case detection.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shihao He
- China‐Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious DiseasesSchool of Public HealthXi'an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi'anChina
| | - Wei Dong
- National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention (NCAIDS)Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC)BeijingChina
| | - Christopher K. Fairley
- Melbourne Sexual Health CentreAlfred HealthMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
- Central Clinical SchoolFaculty of MedicineMonash UniversityMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
| | - Zengbin Li
- China‐Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious DiseasesSchool of Public HealthXi'an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi'anChina
| | - Yudong Wei
- China‐Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious DiseasesSchool of Public HealthXi'an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi'anChina
| | - Hao Lai
- China‐Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious DiseasesSchool of Public HealthXi'an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi'anChina
| | - Rui Li
- China‐Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious DiseasesSchool of Public HealthXi'an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi'anChina
| | - Pengyi Lu
- China‐Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious DiseasesSchool of Public HealthXi'an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi'anChina
| | - Mingwang Shen
- China‐Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious DiseasesSchool of Public HealthXi'an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi'anChina
- Key Laboratory for Disease Prevention and Control and Health Promotion of Shaanxi ProvinceXi'anChina
- The Interdisciplinary Center for Mathematics and Life SciencesSchool of Mathematics and StatisticsXi'an Jiaotong UniversityXi'anChina
- Key Laboratory of Environment and Genes Related to Diseases (Xi'an Jiaotong University)Ministry of EducationXi'anChina
| | - Zunyou Wu
- National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention (NCAIDS)Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC)BeijingChina
| | - Lei Zhang
- China‐Australia Joint Research Center for Infectious DiseasesSchool of Public HealthXi'an Jiaotong University Health Science CenterXi'anChina
- Melbourne Sexual Health CentreAlfred HealthMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
- Central Clinical SchoolFaculty of MedicineMonash UniversityMelbourneVictoriaAustralia
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Bowring AL, Ten Brink D, Martin-Hughes R, Fraser-Hurt N, Cheikh N, Scott N. Evaluation of the use of modelling in resource allocation decisions for HIV and TB. BMJ Glob Health 2024; 9:e012418. [PMID: 38232992 PMCID: PMC10806894 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-012418] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2023] [Accepted: 11/25/2023] [Indexed: 01/19/2024] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Globally, resources for health spending, including HIV and tuberculosis (TB), are constrained, and a substantial gap exists between spending and estimated needs. Optima is an allocative efficiency modelling tool that has been used since 2010 in over 50 settings to generate evidence for country-level HIV and TB resource allocation decisions. This evaluation assessed the utilisation of modelling to inform financing priorities from the perspective of country stakeholders and their international partners. METHODS In October to December 2021, the World Bank and Burnet Institute led 16 semi-structured small-group virtual interviews with 54 representatives from national governments and international health and funding organisations. Interviews probed participants' roles and satisfaction with Optima analyses and how model findings have had been used and impacted resource allocation. Interviewed stakeholders represented nine countries and 11 different disease programme-country contexts with prior Optima modelling analyses. Interview notes were thematically analysed to assess factors influencing the utilisation of modelling evidence in health policy and outcomes. RESULTS Common influences on utilisation of Optima findings encompassed the perceived validity of findings, health system financing mechanisms, the extent of stakeholder participation in the modelling process-including engagement of funding organisations, sociopolitical context and timeliness of the analysis. Using workshops can facilitate effective stakeholder engagement and collaboration. Model findings were often used conceptually to localise global evidence and facilitate discussion. Secondary outputs included informing strategic and financial planning, funding advocacy, grant proposals and influencing investment shifts. CONCLUSION Allocative efficiency modelling has supported evidence-informed decision-making in numerous contexts and enhanced the conceptual and practical understanding of allocative efficiency. Most immediately, greater involvement of country stakeholders in modelling studies and timing studies to key strategic and financial planning decisions may increase the impact on decision-making. Better consideration for integrated disease modelling, equity goals and financing constraints may improve relevance and utilisation of modelling findings.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - Nick Scott
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
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Nguyen TT, Nguyen HT, Do HP, Ho CSH, Ho RCM. Characterizing the Development of Research Landscapes in Substance Use and HIV/AIDS During 1990 to 2021. Subst Abuse 2023; 17:11782218231177515. [PMID: 37304210 PMCID: PMC10251474 DOI: 10.1177/11782218231177515] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2022] [Accepted: 05/07/2023] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
Mitigating the impacts of Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) and substance use requires comprehensive and systematic thinking in designing interventions and developing policies. This study describes the growth of research publications from 1991 to 2021 in the Web of Science database and points out current research landscapes in the fields of HIV/AIDS and substance use. Latent Dirichlet Allocation was used for classifying 21 359 papers into corresponding topics. The most common topics were HIV transmission, HIV infection, quality of life and mental health of substance users, and the biomedical effect of substance use. Emerging research landscapes include vulnerabilities of people who inject drugs to HIV transmission and related health problems. This study found a lack of research on health services, interdisciplinary and inter-sectoral in combination with clinical evaluation and treatment services. Future investment and implementation of HIV/AIDS and substance use programs should focus on research of health services and clinical evaluation, especially context-specific interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tham Thi Nguyen
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
- Faculty of Medicine, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Hien Thu Nguyen
- Institute for Global Health Innovations, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
- Faculty of Medicine, Duy Tan University, Da Nang, Vietnam
| | - Huyen Phuc Do
- Institute of Health Economics and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Cyrus SH Ho
- Department of Psychological Medicine, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore
| | - Roger CM Ho
- Department of Psychological Medicine, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, National University of Singapore, Singapore
- Institute for Health Innovation and Technology (iHealthtech), National University of Singapore, Singapore
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Giddings R, Indravudh P, Medley GF, Bozzani F, Gafos M, Malhotra S, Terris-Prestholt F, Torres-Rueda S, Quaife M. Infectious Disease Modelling of HIV Prevention Interventions: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis of Compartmental Models. PHARMACOECONOMICS 2023; 41:693-707. [PMID: 36988896 PMCID: PMC10163138 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-023-01260-z] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/26/2023] [Indexed: 05/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The HIV epidemic remains a major public health problem. Critical to transmission control are HIV prevention strategies with new interventions continuing to be developed. Mathematical models are important for understanding the potential impact of these interventions and supporting policy decisions. This systematic review aims to answer the following question: when a new HIV prevention intervention is being considered or designed, what information regarding it is necessary to include in a compartmental model to provide useful insights to policy makers? The primary objective of this review is therefore to assess suitability of current compartmental HIV prevention models for informing policy development. METHODS Articles published in EMBASE, Medline, Econlit, and Global Health were screened. Included studies were identified using permutations of (i) HIV, (ii) pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), circumcision (both voluntary male circumcision [VMMC] and early-infant male circumcision [EIMC]), and vaccination, and (iii) modelling. Data extraction focused on study design, model structure, and intervention incorporation into models. Article quality was assessed using the TRACE (TRAnsparent and Comprehensive Ecological modelling documentation) criteria for mathematical models. RESULTS Of 837 articles screened, 48 articles were included in the review, with 32 unique mathematical models identified. The substantial majority of studies included PrEP (83%), whilst fewer modelled circumcision (54%), and only a few focussed on vaccination (10%). Data evaluation, implementation verification, and model output corroboration were identified as areas of poorer model quality. Parameters commonly included in the mathematical models were intervention uptake and effectiveness, with additional intervention-specific common parameters identified. We identified key modelling gaps; critically, models insufficiently incorporate multiple interventions acting simultaneously. Additionally, population subgroups were generally poorly represented-with future models requiring improved incorporation of ethnicity and sexual risk group stratification-and many models contained inappropriate data in parameterisation which will affect output accuracy. CONCLUSIONS This review identified gaps in compartmental models to date and suggests areas of improvement for models focusing on new prevention interventions. Resolution of such gaps within future models will ensure greater robustness and transparency, and enable more accurate assessment of the impact that new interventions may have, thereby providing more meaningful guidance to policy makers.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | - Mitzy Gafos
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | | | | | - Matthew Quaife
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
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Howes A, Risher KA, Nguyen VK, Stevens O, Jia KM, Wolock TM, Esra RT, Zembe L, Wanyeki I, Mahy M, Benedikt C, Flaxman SR, Eaton JW. Spatio-temporal estimates of HIV risk group proportions for adolescent girls and young women across 13 priority countries in sub-Saharan Africa. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 3:e0001731. [PMID: 37075002 PMCID: PMC10115274 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0001731] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2022] [Accepted: 02/23/2023] [Indexed: 04/20/2023]
Abstract
The Global AIDS Strategy 2021-2026 identifies adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) as a priority population for HIV prevention, and recommends differentiating intervention portfolios geographically based on local HIV incidence and individual risk behaviours. We estimated prevalence of HIV risk behaviours and associated HIV incidence at health district level among AGYW living in 13 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. We analysed 46 geospatially-referenced national household surveys conducted between 1999-2018 across 13 high HIV burden countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Female survey respondents aged 15-29 years were classified into four risk groups (not sexually active, cohabiting, non-regular or multiple partner[s] and female sex workers [FSW]) based on reported sexual behaviour. We used a Bayesian spatio-temporal multinomial regression model to estimate the proportion of AGYW in each risk group stratified by district, year, and five-year age group. Using subnational estimates of HIV prevalence and incidence produced by countries with support from UNAIDS, we estimated new HIV infections in each risk group by district and age group. We then assessed the efficiency of prioritising interventions according to risk group. Data consisted of 274,970 female survey respondents aged 15-29. Among women aged 20-29, cohabiting (63.1%) was more common in eastern Africa than non-regular or multiple partner(s) (21.3%), while in southern countries non-regular or multiple partner(s) (58.9%) were more common than cohabiting (23.4%). Risk group proportions varied substantially across age groups (65.9% of total variation explained), countries (20.9%), and between districts within each country (11.3%), but changed little over time (0.9%). Prioritisation based on behavioural risk, in combination with location- and age-based prioritisation, reduced the proportion of population required to be reached in order to find half of all expected new infections from 19.4% to 10.6%. FSW were 1.3% of the population but 10.6% of all expected new infections. Our risk group estimates provide data for HIV programmes to set targets and implement differentiated prevention strategies outlined in the Global AIDS Strategy. Successfully implementing this approach would result in more efficiently reaching substantially more of those at risk for infections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Adam Howes
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Kathryn A. Risher
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Institute for Global Health, Faculty of Medicine, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany
| | - Van Kính Nguyen
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- Department of Public Health Sciences, Penn State College of Medicine, Hershey, PA, United States of America
| | - Oliver Stevens
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Katherine M. Jia
- Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States of America
| | - Timothy M. Wolock
- Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Rachel T. Esra
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Lycias Zembe
- Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Ian Wanyeki
- Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Mary Mahy
- Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | - Seth R. Flaxman
- Department of Computer Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Jeffrey W. Eaton
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom
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Bershteyn A, Jamieson L, Kim HY, Platais I, Milali MP, Mudimu E, Ten Brink D, Martin-Hughes R, Kelly SL, Phillips AN, Bansi-Matharu L, Cambiano V, Revill P, Meyer-Rath G, Nichols BE. Transmission reduction, health benefits, and upper-bound costs of interventions to improve retention on antiretroviral therapy: a combined analysis of three mathematical models. Lancet Glob Health 2022; 10:e1298-e1306. [PMID: 35961353 PMCID: PMC9380252 DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(22)00310-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2022] [Revised: 06/07/2022] [Accepted: 06/24/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND In this so-called treat-all era, antiretroviral therapy (ART) interruptions contribute to an increasing proportion of HIV infections and deaths. Many strategies to improve retention on ART cost more than standard of care. In this study, we aimed to estimate the upper-bound costs at which such interventions should be adopted. METHODS In this combined analysis, we compared the infections averted, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted, and upper-bound costs of interventions that improve ART retention in three HIV models with diverse structures, assumptions, and baseline settings: EMOD in South Africa, Optima in Malawi, and Synthesis in sub-Saharan African low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We modelled estimates over a 40-year time horizon, from a baseline of Jan 1, 2022, when interventions would be implemented, to Jan 1, 2062. We varied increment of ART retention (25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% retention), the extent to which interventions could be targeted towards individuals at risk of interrupting ART, and cost-effectiveness thresholds in each setting. FINDINGS Despite simulating different settings and epidemic trends, all three models produced consistent estimates of health benefit (ie, DALYs averted) and transmission reduction per increment in retention. The range of estimates was 1·35-3·55 DALYs and 0·12-0·20 infections averted over the 40-year time horizon per additional person-year retained on ART. Upper-bound costs varied by setting and intervention effectiveness. Improving retention by 25% among all people receiving ART, regardless of risk of ART interruption, gave an upper-bound cost per person-year of US$2-6 in Optima (Malawi), $43-68 in Synthesis (LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa), and $28-180 in EMOD (South Africa). A maximally targeted and effective retention intervention had an upper-bound cost per person-year of US$93-223 in Optima (Malawi), $871-1389 in Synthesis (LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa), and $1013-6518 in EMOD (South Africa). INTERPRETATION Upper-bound costs that could improve ART retention vary across sub-Saharan African settings and are likely to be similar to or higher than was estimated before the start of the treat-all era. Upper-bound costs could be increased by targeting interventions to those most at risk of interrupting ART. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Bershteyn
- Department of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA.
| | - Lise Jamieson
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO), University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa
| | - Hae-Young Kim
- Department of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA
| | - Ingrida Platais
- Department of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA
| | - Masabho P Milali
- Department of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA
| | - Edinah Mudimu
- Department of Decision Sciences, University of South Africa, Pretoria, South Africa
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Paul Revill
- Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York, UK
| | - Gesine Meyer-Rath
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO), University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Brooke E Nichols
- Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE2RO), University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa; Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA; Department of Medical Microbiology, Amsterdam University Medical Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands
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Zhang Y, Wang L, Jiang Z, Yan H, Liu X, Gu J, Wang G, Cheng X, Leng Q, Long Q, Liang Z, Wang J, Liang L, Qiu Y, Chen L, Hong H. Estimating Costs of the HIV Comprehensive Intervention Using the Spectrum Model - China, 2015-2019. China CDC Wkly 2022; 4:554-559. [PMID: 35813887 PMCID: PMC9260083 DOI: 10.46234/ccdcw2022.119] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/13/2022] [Accepted: 03/10/2022] [Indexed: 12/03/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION In order to facilitate human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment and prevention, the resource needs for HIV national strategic planning in developing regions were estimated based on Spectrum, the universal HIV cost-effectiveness analysis software. METHODS Based on the theoretical framework of Spectrum, the study developed a cost measurement tool for HIV, and calculated the cost of HIV prevention and control in 6 sampled cities in China during 2015-2019 using the Spectrum model. RESULTS From 2015 to 2019, the average annual costs for HIV prevention and control for Shijiazhuang, Yantai, Ningbo, Zhenjiang, Foshan, and Wuxi cities were 46.78, 47.55, 137.49, 24.73, 74.37, and 58.30 million Chinese yuan (CNY), respectively. The per capita costs were 4.37, 6.73, 17.33, 7.77, 17.56, and 8.91 CNY, respectively. In terms of the cost structure, the ratio of preventive intervention funds to therapeutic intervention funds (antiviral treatment) varied in sampled cities. DISCUSSION Developing comprehensive and systematic HIV fund calculation methods can provide a research basis for rational resource allocation in the field of HIV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Youran Zhang
- School of Health Service Management, Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, Anhui Province, China
| | - Lili Wang
- School of Health Service Management, Anhui Medical University, Hefei City, Anhui Province, China
| | - Zhen Jiang
- Division of Prevention and intervention, National Center for AIDS and STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing Municipality, China,Jiangzhen,
| | - Hongjing Yan
- Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing City, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, China
| | - Xiaoxia Liu
- Zhenjiang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhenjiang City, Jiangsu Province, China
| | - Jing Gu
- Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, China
| | - Guoyong Wang
- Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan City, Jiangsu Province, China
| | - Xiaosong Cheng
- Yantai Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yantai City, Shandong Province, China
| | - Qiyan Leng
- Yantai Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yantai City, Shandong Province, China
| | - Qisui Long
- Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China
| | - Zimian Liang
- Foshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Foshan City, Guangdong Province, China
| | - Jing Wang
- Foshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Foshan City, Guangdong Province, China
| | - Liang Liang
- Hebei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province, China
| | - Yanchao Qiu
- Shijiazhuang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shijiazhuang City, Hebei Province, China
| | - Lin Chen
- Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou City, Zhejiang Province, China
| | - Hang Hong
- Ningbo Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Ningbo City, Zhejiang Province, China
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ten Brink DC, Martin-Hughes R, Minnery ME, Osborne AJ, Schmidt HMA, Dalal S, Green KE, Ramaurtarsing R, Wilson DP, Kelly SL. Cost-effectiveness and impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV among men who have sex with men in Asia: A modelling study. PLoS One 2022; 17:e0268240. [PMID: 35617169 PMCID: PMC9135227 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0268240] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2021] [Accepted: 04/25/2022] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION More than 70% of new HIV infections in Asia occurred in eight countries in 2020: Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Thailand, and Vietnam-with a rising incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM). The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for those at risk of acquiring HIV, yet wide-scale implementation of PrEP, on a daily or event-driven basis, has been limited in Asia. METHODS The Optima HIV model was applied to examine the impact of scaling-up PrEP over five-years to cover an additional 15% of MSM compared with baseline coverage, a target deemed feasible by regional experts. Based on behavioral survey data, we assume that covering 15% of higher-risk MSM will cover 30% of all sexual acts in this group. Scenarios to compare the impact of generic-brand daily dosing of PrEP with generic event-driven dosing (15 days a month) were modelled from the start of 2022 to the end of 2026. Cost-effectiveness of generic versus branded PrEP was also assessed for China, the only country with an active patent for branded, higher cost PrEP. The impact on new HIV infections among the entire population and cost per HIV-related disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted were estimated from the beginning of 2022 to the end of 2031 and from 2022 to 2051. RESULTS If PrEP were scaled-up to cover an additional 15% of MSM engaging in higher-risk behavior from the beginning of 2022 to the end of 2026 in the eight Asian countries considered, an additional 100,000 (66,000-130,000) HIV infections (17%) and 300,000 (198,000-390,000) HIV-related DALYs (3%) could be averted over the 2022 to 2031 period. The estimated cost per HIV-related DALY averted from 2022 to 2031 ranged from US$600 for event-driven generic PrEP in Indonesia to US$34,400 for daily branded PrEP in Thailand. Over a longer timeframe from 2022 to 2051, the cost per HIV-related DALY averted could be reduced to US$100-US$12,700. CONCLUSION PrEP is a critical tool to further reduce HIV incidence in highly concentrated epidemics. Implementing PrEP in Asia may be cost-effective in settings with increasing HIV prevalence among MSM and if PrEP drug costs can be reduced, PrEP could be more cost-effective over longer timeframes.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | - Heather-Marie A. Schmidt
- United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand
- World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | - Shona Dalal
- World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
| | | | | | - David P. Wilson
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
- Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
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Nduva GM, Otieno F, Kimani J, Wahome E, McKinnon LR, Cholette F, Majiwa M, Masika M, Mutua G, Anzala O, Graham SM, Gelmon L, Price MA, Smith AD, Bailey RC, Baele G, Lemey P, Hassan AS, Sanders EJ, Esbjörnsson J. Quantifying rates of HIV-1 flow between risk groups and geographic locations in Kenya: A country-wide phylogenetic study. Virus Evol 2022; 8:veac016. [PMID: 35356640 PMCID: PMC8962731 DOI: 10.1093/ve/veac016] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/26/2021] [Revised: 02/23/2022] [Accepted: 03/01/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022] Open
Abstract
In Kenya, HIV-1 key populations including men having sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID) and female sex workers (FSW) are thought to significantly contribute to HIV-1 transmission in the wider, mostly heterosexual (HET) HIV-1 transmission network. However, clear data on HIV-1 transmission dynamics within and between these groups are limited. We aimed to empirically quantify rates of HIV-1 flow between key populations and the HET population, as well as between different geographic regions to determine HIV-1 'hotspots' and their contribution to HIV-1 transmission in Kenya. We used maximum-likelihood phylogenetic and Bayesian inference to analyse 4058 HIV-1 pol sequences (representing 0.3 per cent of the epidemic in Kenya) sampled 1986-2019 from individuals of different risk groups and regions in Kenya. We found 89 per cent within-risk group transmission and 11 per cent mixing between risk groups, cyclic HIV-1 exchange between adjoining geographic provinces and strong evidence of HIV-1 dissemination from (i) West-to-East (i.e. higher-to-lower HIV-1 prevalence regions), and (ii) heterosexual-to-key populations. Low HIV-1 prevalence regions and key populations are sinks rather than major sources of HIV-1 transmission in Kenya. Targeting key populations in Kenya needs to occur concurrently with strengthening interventions in the general epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- George M Nduva
- Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Faculty of Medicine, Lund University, Box 117 SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden
- Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, KEMRI-Center For Geographic Medicine Research, P.O. Box 230-80108, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Frederick Otieno
- Nyanza Reproductive Health Society, United Mall, P.O. Box 1764, Kisumu, Kenya
| | - Joshua Kimani
- Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 30197-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Max Rady College of Medicine, Room 543-745 Bannatyne Avenue, University of Manitoba (Bannatyne campus), Winnipeg MB R3E 0J9, Canada
| | - Elizabeth Wahome
- Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, KEMRI-Center For Geographic Medicine Research, P.O. Box 230-80108, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Lyle R McKinnon
- Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 30197-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Max Rady College of Medicine, Room 543-745 Bannatyne Avenue, University of Manitoba (Bannatyne campus), Winnipeg MB R3E 0J9, Canada
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Doris Duke Medical Research Institute, Nelson R Mandela School of Medicine, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Private Bag X7, Congella 4013, South Africa
| | - Francois Cholette
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Max Rady College of Medicine, Room 543-745 Bannatyne Avenue, University of Manitoba (Bannatyne campus), Winnipeg MB R3E 0J9, Canada
- National Microbiology Laboratory at the JC Wilt Infectious Diseases Research Centre, Public Health Agency of Canada, 745 Logan Avenue, Winnipeg, Canada
| | - Maxwell Majiwa
- Kenya Medical Research Institute/Center for Global Health Research, KEMRI-CGHR, P.O. Box 20778-00202, Kisumu, Kenya
| | - Moses Masika
- Faculty of Health Sciences 3RD Floor Wing B, KAVI Institute of Clinical Research, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 19676-00202, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Gaudensia Mutua
- Faculty of Health Sciences 3RD Floor Wing B, KAVI Institute of Clinical Research, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 19676-00202, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Omu Anzala
- Faculty of Health Sciences 3RD Floor Wing B, KAVI Institute of Clinical Research, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 19676-00202, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Susan M Graham
- Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, KEMRI-Center For Geographic Medicine Research, P.O. Box 230-80108, Kilifi, Kenya
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Office of the Chair, UW Box # 351619, Seattle, DC, USA
| | - Larry Gelmon
- Department of Medical Microbiology, University of Nairobi, P.O. Box 30197-00100, Nairobi, Kenya
- Department of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, University of Manitoba, Max Rady College of Medicine, Room 543-745 Bannatyne Avenue, University of Manitoba (Bannatyne campus), Winnipeg MB R3E 0J9, Canada
| | - Matt A Price
- IAVI Global Headquarters, 125 Broad Street, 9th Floor, New York, NY 10004, USA
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, Mission Hall: Global Health & Clinical Sciences Building, 550 16th Street, 2nd Floor, San Francisco, CA 94158-2549, USA
| | - Adrian D Smith
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, The University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Headington, Oxford OX3 7BN, UK
| | - Robert C Bailey
- Nyanza Reproductive Health Society, United Mall, P.O. Box 1764, Kisumu, Kenya
- Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Illinois at Chicago, 1603 W Taylor St, Chicago, IL 60612, USA
| | - Guy Baele
- KU Leuven Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory of Clinical and Evolutionary and Computational Virology, Rega-Herestraat 49-box 1040, Leuven 3000, Belgium
| | - Philippe Lemey
- KU Leuven Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory of Clinical and Evolutionary and Computational Virology, Rega-Herestraat 49-box 1040, Leuven 3000, Belgium
| | - Amin S Hassan
- Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Faculty of Medicine, Lund University, Box 117 SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden
- Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, KEMRI-Center For Geographic Medicine Research, P.O. Box 230-80108, Kilifi, Kenya
| | - Eduard J Sanders
- Kenya Medical Research Institute-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, KEMRI-Center For Geographic Medicine Research, P.O. Box 230-80108, Kilifi, Kenya
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, The University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Headington, Oxford OX3 7BN, UK
| | - Joakim Esbjörnsson
- Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, Faculty of Medicine, Lund University, Box 117 SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden
- Nuffield Department of Medicine, The University of Oxford, Old Road Campus, Headington, Oxford OX3 7BN, UK
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Birungi C. Next generation economics of universal HIV treatment. THE LANCET GLOBAL HEALTH 2022; 10:e12-e13. [DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(21)00560-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2021] [Accepted: 11/26/2021] [Indexed: 11/25/2022] Open
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11
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Allel K, Abou Jaoude GJ, Birungi C, Palmer T, Skordis J, Haghparast-Bidgoli H. Technical efficiency of national HIV/AIDS spending in 78 countries between 2010 and 2018: A data envelopment analysis. PLOS GLOBAL PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 2:e0000463. [PMID: 36962380 PMCID: PMC10022340 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000463] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2021] [Accepted: 06/27/2022] [Indexed: 11/18/2022]
Abstract
HIV/AIDS remains a leading global cause of disease burden, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In 2020, more than 80% of all people living with HIV (PLHIV) lived in LMICs. While progress has been made in extending coverage of HIV/AIDS services, only 66% of all PLHIV were virally suppressed at the end of 2020. In addition to more resources, the efficiency of spending is key to accelerating progress towards global 2030 targets for HIV/AIDs, including viral load suppression. This study aims to estimate the efficiency of HIV/AIDS spending across 78 countries. We employed a data envelopment analysis (DEA) and a truncated regression to estimate the technical efficiency of 78 countries, mostly low- and middle-income, in delivering HIV/AIDS services from 2010 to 2018. Publicly available data informed the model. We considered national HIV/AIDS spending as the DEA input, and prevention of mother to child transmission (PMTCT) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) as outputs. The model was adjusted by independent variables to account for country characteristics and investigate associations with technical efficiency. On average, there has been substantial improvement in technical efficiency over time. Spending was converted into outputs almost twice as efficiently in 2018 (81.8%; 95% CI = 77.64, 85.99) compared with 2010 (47.5%; 95% CI = 43.4, 51.6). Average technical efficiency was 66.9% between 2010 and 2018, in other words 33.1% more outputs could have been produced relative to existing levels for the same amount of spending. There is also some variation between WHO/UNAIDS regions. European and Eastern and Southern Africa regions converted spending into outputs most efficiently between 2010 and 2018. Rule of Law, Gross National Income, Human Development Index, HIV prevalence and out-of-pocket expenditures were all significantly associated with efficiency scores. The technical efficiency of HIV investments has improved over time. However, there remains scope to substantially increase HIV/AIDS spending efficiency and improve progress towards 2030 global targets for HIV/AIDS. Given that many of the most efficient countries did not meet 2020 global HIV targets, our study supports the WHO call for additional investment in HIV/AIDS prevention and control to meet the 2030 HIV/AIDS and eradication of the AIDS epidemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kasim Allel
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | | | - Charles Birungi
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom
- United Nations Joint Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS), Harare, Zimbabwe
| | - Tom Palmer
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom
| | - Jolene Skordis
- Institute for Global Health, University College London, London, United Kingdom
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Bershteyn A, Mudimu E, Platais I, Mwalili S, Zulu JE, Mwanza WN, Kripke K. Understanding the Evolving Role of Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision as a Public Health Strategy in Eastern and Southern Africa: Opportunities and Challenges. Curr HIV/AIDS Rep 2022; 19:526-536. [PMID: 36459306 PMCID: PMC9759505 DOI: 10.1007/s11904-022-00639-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 08/16/2022] [Indexed: 12/05/2022]
Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW Voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) has been a cornerstone of HIV prevention in Eastern and Southern Africa (ESA) and is credited in part for declines in HIV incidence seen in recent years. However, these HIV incidence declines change VMMC cost-effectiveness and how it varies across populations. RECENT FINDINGS Mathematical models project continued cost-effectiveness of VMMC in much of ESA despite HIV incidence declines. A key data gap is how demand generation cost differs across age groups and over time as VMMC coverage increases. Additionally, VMMC models usually neglect non-HIV effects of VMMC, such as prevention of other sexually transmitted infections and medical adverse events. While small compared to HIV effects in the short term, these could become important as HIV incidence declines. Evidence to date supports prioritizing VMMC in ESA despite falling HIV incidence. Updated modeling methodologies will become necessary if HIV incidence reaches low levels.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anna Bershteyn
- Department of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, 227 East 30th Street, New York, NY 10016 USA
| | - Edinah Mudimu
- Department of Decision Sciences, College of Economic and Management Sciences, University of South Africa, Pretoria, Gauteng South Africa
| | - Ingrida Platais
- Department of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, 227 East 30th Street, New York, NY 10016 USA
| | - Samuel Mwalili
- Strathmore Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Strathmore University, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - James E. Zulu
- Zambia Field Epidemiology Training Program, Workforce Development Cluster, Zambia National Public Health Institute, Lusaka, Zambia
| | - Wiza N. Mwanza
- Directorate of Public Health and Research, Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia
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13
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Fraser H, Borquez A, Stone J, Abramovitz D, Brouwer KC, Goodman-Meza D, Hickman M, Patterson TL, Silverman J, Smith L, Strathdee SA, Martin NK, Vickerman P. Overlapping Key Populations and HIV Transmission in Tijuana, Mexico: A Modelling Analysis of Epidemic Drivers. AIDS Behav 2021; 25:3814-3827. [PMID: 34216285 PMCID: PMC8560668 DOI: 10.1007/s10461-021-03361-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 06/20/2021] [Indexed: 12/18/2022]
Abstract
Tijuana, Mexico, has a concentrated HIV epidemic among overlapping key populations (KPs) including people who inject drugs (PWID), female sex workers (FSW), their male clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM). We developed a dynamic HIV transmission model among these KPs to determine the extent to which their unmet prevention and treatment needs is driving HIV transmission. Over 2020-2029 we estimated the proportion of new infections acquired in each KP, and the proportion due to their unprotected risk behaviours. We estimate that 43.7% and 55.3% of new infections are among MSM and PWID, respectively, with FSW and their clients making-up < 10% of new infections. Projections suggest 93.8% of new infections over 2020-2029 will be due to unprotected sex between MSM or unsafe injecting drug use. Prioritizing interventions addressing sexual and injecting risks among MSM and PWID are critical to controlling HIV in Tijuana.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hannah Fraser
- Oakfield House, Population Health Sciences - Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 2BN, UK.
| | - Annick Borquez
- School of Medicine, University of California San Diego, San Diego, USA
| | - Jack Stone
- Oakfield House, Population Health Sciences - Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 2BN, UK
| | | | | | - David Goodman-Meza
- David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | - Matthew Hickman
- Oakfield House, Population Health Sciences - Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 2BN, UK
| | | | - Jay Silverman
- School of Medicine, University of California San Diego, San Diego, USA
| | - Laramie Smith
- School of Medicine, University of California San Diego, San Diego, USA
| | | | - Natasha K Martin
- Oakfield House, Population Health Sciences - Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 2BN, UK
- School of Medicine, University of California San Diego, San Diego, USA
| | - Peter Vickerman
- Oakfield House, Population Health Sciences - Bristol Medical School, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 2BN, UK.
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Goscé L, Abou Jaoude GJ, Kedziora DJ, Benedikt C, Hussain A, Jarvis S, Skrahina A, Klimuk D, Hurevich H, Zhao F, Fraser-Hurt N, Cheikh N, Gorgens M, Wilson DJ, Abeysuriya R, Martin-Hughes R, Kelly SL, Roberts A, Stuart RM, Palmer T, Panovska-Griffiths J, Kerr CC, Wilson DP, Haghparast-Bidgoli H, Skordis J, Abubakar I. Optima TB: A tool to help optimally allocate tuberculosis spending. PLoS Comput Biol 2021; 17:e1009255. [PMID: 34570767 PMCID: PMC8496838 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1009255] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/03/2020] [Revised: 10/07/2021] [Accepted: 07/07/2021] [Indexed: 12/02/2022] Open
Abstract
Approximately 85% of tuberculosis (TB) related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries where health resources are scarce. Effective priority setting is required to maximise the impact of limited budgets. The Optima TB tool has been developed to support analytical capacity and inform evidence-based priority setting processes for TB health benefits package design. This paper outlines the Optima TB framework and how it was applied in Belarus, an upper-middle income country in Eastern Europe with a relatively high burden of TB. Optima TB is a population-based disease transmission model, with programmatic cost functions and an optimisation algorithm. Modelled populations include age-differentiated general populations and higher-risk populations such as people living with HIV. Populations and prospective interventions are defined in consultation with local stakeholders. In partnership with the latter, demographic, epidemiological, programmatic, as well as cost and spending data for these populations and interventions are then collated. An optimisation analysis of TB spending was conducted in Belarus, using program objectives and constraints defined in collaboration with local stakeholders, which included experts, decision makers, funders and organisations involved in service delivery, support and technical assistance. These analyses show that it is possible to improve health impact by redistributing current TB spending in Belarus. Specifically, shifting funding from inpatient- to outpatient-focused care models, and from mass screening to active case finding strategies, could reduce TB prevalence and mortality by up to 45% and 50%, respectively, by 2035. In addition, an optimised allocation of TB spending could lead to a reduction in drug-resistant TB infections by 40% over this period. This would support progress towards national TB targets without additional financial resources. The case study in Belarus demonstrates how reallocations of spending across existing and new interventions could have a substantial impact on TB outcomes. This highlights the potential for Optima TB and similar modelling tools to support evidence-based priority setting. Tuberculosis (TB) remains a leading global cause of death and morbidity, and 85% of deaths occur in countries where resources for TB care and control are limited. Many countries cannot finance all TB interventions or technologies, which means difficult decisions on what to prioritise and publically finance. Modelling tools can help decision-makers set priorities based on evidence, in a systematic and transparent way. This study presents Optima TB, a tool that estimates which allocations of spending across interventions will most likely maximise specified objectives—such as minimising TB deaths, prevalence and incidence. In partnership with local decision-makers and stakeholders, Optima TB was applied in Belarus. Recommendations from the model findings include focussing investment on outpatient rather than inpatient care and actively finding people with TB (e.g. through contact tracing) rather than mass testing of the population. The recommended reallocations of spending could reduce TB prevalence and deaths by up to 45% and 50%, respectively, by 2035 for the same amount of spending. Key stakeholders were engaged throughout the analysis and findings and uncertainty around the results were clearly communicated with decision-makers. The timeliness of the results helped inform national dialogue on TB care reform, among other key policy discussions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lara Goscé
- University College London, London, United Kingdom
- * E-mail:
| | | | | | - Clemens Benedikt
- World Bank, Washington, District of Columbia, United States of America
| | | | | | - Alena Skrahina
- The Republican Scientific and Practice Centre for Pulmonology and Tuberculosis, Minsk, Belarus
| | - Dzmitry Klimuk
- The Republican Scientific and Practice Centre for Pulmonology and Tuberculosis, Minsk, Belarus
| | - Henadz Hurevich
- The Republican Scientific and Practice Centre for Pulmonology and Tuberculosis, Minsk, Belarus
| | - Feng Zhao
- World Bank, Washington, District of Columbia, United States of America
| | | | - Nejma Cheikh
- World Bank, Washington, District of Columbia, United States of America
| | - Marelize Gorgens
- World Bank, Washington, District of Columbia, United States of America
| | - David J. Wilson
- World Bank, Washington, District of Columbia, United States of America
| | | | | | | | | | - Robyn M. Stuart
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia
- University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Tom Palmer
- University College London, London, United Kingdom
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Janulis P, Goodreau SM, Birkett M, Phillips G, Morris M, Mustanski B, Jenness SM. Temporal Variation in One-Time Partnership Rates Among Young Men Who Have Sex With Men and Transgender Women. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 2021; 87:e214-e221. [PMID: 33675616 PMCID: PMC8192435 DOI: 10.1097/qai.0000000000002679] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/16/2020] [Accepted: 02/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Volatility in sexual contact rates has been recognized as an important factor influencing HIV transmission dynamics. One-time partnerships may be particularly important given the potential to quickly accumulate large number of contacts. Yet, empirical data documenting individual variation in contact rates remain rare. This study provides much needed data on temporal variation in one-time partners to better understand behavioral dynamics and improve the accuracy of transmission models. METHODS Data for this study were obtained from a longitudinal cohort study of young men who have sex with men and transgender women in Chicago. Participants provided sexual network data every 6 months for 2 years. A series of random effects models examined variation in one-time partnership rates and disaggregated within and between associations of exposure variables. Exposure variables included prior number of one-time partners, number of casual partners, and having a main partner. RESULTS Results indicated substantial between-person and within-person variation in one-time partners. Casual partnerships were positively associated and main partnerships negatively associated with one-time partnership rates. There remained a small positive association between prior one-time partnerships and the current number of one-time partnerships. CONCLUSIONS Despite the preponderance of a low number of one-time partners, substantial variation in one-time partnership rates exists among young men who have sex with men and transgender women. Accordingly, focusing on high contact rate individuals alone may be insufficient to identify periods of highest risk. Future studies should use these estimates to more accurately model how volatility impacts HIV transmission and better understand how this variation influences intervention effectiveness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Patrick Janulis
- Department of Medical Social Sciences, Northwestern University
- Institute for Sexual and Gender Minority Health and Wellbeing, Northwestern University
| | - Steven M Goodreau
- Departments of Anthropology and Epidemiology, University of Washington
| | - Michelle Birkett
- Department of Medical Social Sciences, Northwestern University
- Institute for Sexual and Gender Minority Health and Wellbeing, Northwestern University
| | - Gregory Phillips
- Department of Medical Social Sciences, Northwestern University
- Institute for Sexual and Gender Minority Health and Wellbeing, Northwestern University
| | - Martina Morris
- Departments of Statistics and Sociology, University of Washington
| | - Brian Mustanski
- Department of Medical Social Sciences, Northwestern University
- Institute for Sexual and Gender Minority Health and Wellbeing, Northwestern University
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Nduva GM, Nazziwa J, Hassan AS, Sanders EJ, Esbjörnsson J. The Role of Phylogenetics in Discerning HIV-1 Mixing among Vulnerable Populations and Geographic Regions in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review. Viruses 2021; 13:1174. [PMID: 34205246 PMCID: PMC8235305 DOI: 10.3390/v13061174] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/25/2021] [Revised: 06/09/2021] [Accepted: 06/10/2021] [Indexed: 12/19/2022] Open
Abstract
To reduce global HIV-1 incidence, there is a need to understand and disentangle HIV-1 transmission dynamics and to determine the geographic areas and populations that act as hubs or drivers of HIV-1 spread. In Sub-Saharan Africa (sSA), the region with the highest HIV-1 burden, information about such transmission dynamics is sparse. Phylogenetic inference is a powerful method for the study of HIV-1 transmission networks and source attribution. In this review, we assessed available phylogenetic data on mixing between HIV-1 hotspots (geographic areas and populations with high HIV-1 incidence and prevalence) and areas or populations with lower HIV-1 burden in sSA. We searched PubMed and identified and reviewed 64 studies on HIV-1 transmission dynamics within and between risk groups and geographic locations in sSA (published 1995-2021). We describe HIV-1 transmission from both a geographic and a risk group perspective in sSA. Finally, we discuss the challenges facing phylogenetic inference in mixed epidemics in sSA and offer our perspectives and potential solutions to the identified challenges.
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Affiliation(s)
- George M. Nduva
- Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, 205 02 Malmö, Sweden; (G.M.N.); (J.N.); (A.S.H.)
- Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi 80108, Kenya;
| | - Jamirah Nazziwa
- Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, 205 02 Malmö, Sweden; (G.M.N.); (J.N.); (A.S.H.)
| | - Amin S. Hassan
- Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, 205 02 Malmö, Sweden; (G.M.N.); (J.N.); (A.S.H.)
- Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi 80108, Kenya;
| | - Eduard J. Sanders
- Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI)-Wellcome Trust Research Programme, Kilifi 80108, Kenya;
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, The University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD, UK
| | - Joakim Esbjörnsson
- Department of Translational Medicine, Lund University, 205 02 Malmö, Sweden; (G.M.N.); (J.N.); (A.S.H.)
- Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, The University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD, UK
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Keogh P, Dodds C. Tempering hope with Intimate Knowledge: Contrasting emergences of the concept 'uninfectious' in HIV. SOCIOLOGY OF HEALTH & ILLNESS 2021; 43:1100-1116. [PMID: 33945160 DOI: 10.1111/1467-9566.13264] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2019] [Revised: 11/20/2020] [Accepted: 02/09/2021] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
In this paper, we contrast two emergences of the concept of 'uninfectious' (that pharmaceuticals can render someone living with HIV non-infectious) in HIV. First, using Novas' framing of 'political economies of hope', we describe the deployment of 'uninfectious' as part of global health campaigns. Second, we draw on Raffles' (International Social Science Journal, 2002, 54, 325) concept of 'intimate knowledge' to theorise our own account of 'uninfectious' through a re-analysis of qualitative data comprising the intimate experiences of people living with or around HIV collected at various points over the last 25 years. Framed as intimate knowledge, 'uninfectious' becomes known through people's multiple engagements with and developing understandings of HIV over a prolonged period. As contingent and specific, intimate knowledge does not register within the biomedical/scientific ontological system that underpins discourses of hope employed in global campaigns. The concept of intimate knowledge offers the potential to critique discourses of hope in biomedicine problematising claims to universality whilst enriching biomedical understandings with accounts of affective, embodied experience. Intimate knowledge may also provide a bridge between different epistemological traditions in the sociology of health and illness.
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Affiliation(s)
- Peter Keogh
- Faculty of Wellbeing, Education and Language Studies, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK
| | - Catherine Dodds
- School for Policy Studies, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK
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Phillips DE, Ambrosio G, Batzel A, Cerezo C, Duber H, Faye A, Gaye I, Hernández Prado B, Huntley B, Kestler E, Kingongo C, Lim SS, Linebarger E, Matute J, Mpanya G, Mulongo S, O'Brien-Carelli C, Palmisano E, Rios Casas F, Shelley K, Tine R, Whitaker D, Ross JM. Bringing a health systems modelling approach to complex evaluations: multicountry applications in HIV, TB and malaria. BMJ Glob Health 2020; 5:e002441. [PMID: 33148539 PMCID: PMC7640497 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2020-002441] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/04/2020] [Revised: 09/04/2020] [Accepted: 09/18/2020] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Understanding how to deliver interventions more effectively is a growing emphasis in Global Health. Simultaneously, health system strengthening is a key component to improving delivery. As a result, it is challenging to evaluate programme implementation while reflecting real-world complexity. We present our experience in using a health systems modelling approach as part of a mixed-methods evaluation and describe applications of these models. METHODS We developed a framework for how health systems translate financial inputs into health outcomes, with in-country and international experts. We collated available data to measure framework indicators and developed models for malaria in Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and tuberculosis in Guatemala and Senegal using Bayesian structural equation modelling. We conducted several postmodelling analyses: measuring efficiency, assessing bottlenecks, understanding mediation, analysing the cascade of care and measuring subnational effectiveness. RESULTS The DRC model indicated a strong relationship between shipment of commodities and utilisation thereof. In Guatemala, the strongest model coefficients were more evenly distributed. Results in Senegal varied most, but pathways related to community care had the strongest relationships. In DRC, we used model results to estimate the end-to-end cost of delivering commodities. In Guatemala, we used model results to identify potential bottlenecks and understand mediation. In Senegal, we used model results to identify potential weak links in the cascade of care, and explore subnationally. CONCLUSION This study demonstrates a complementary modelling approach to traditional evaluation methods. Although these models have limitations, they can be applied in a variety of ways to gain greater insight into implementation and functioning of health service delivery.
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Affiliation(s)
- David E Phillips
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Guillermo Ambrosio
- Centro de Investigación Epidemiológica en Salud Sexual y Reproductiva (CIESAR), Guatemala City, Guatemala
| | - Audrey Batzel
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Carmen Cerezo
- Centro de Investigación Epidemiológica en Salud Sexual y Reproductiva (CIESAR), Guatemala City, Guatemala
| | - Herbert Duber
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Adama Faye
- Faculty of Medicine, Universite Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Ibrahima Gaye
- Faculty of Medicine, Universite Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
| | | | - Bethany Huntley
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Edgar Kestler
- Centro de Investigación Epidemiológica en Salud Sexual y Reproductiva (CIESAR), Guatemala City, Guatemala
| | | | - Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Emily Linebarger
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Jorge Matute
- Centro de Investigación Epidemiológica en Salud Sexual y Reproductiva (CIESAR), Guatemala City, Guatemala
| | | | | | - Caitlin O'Brien-Carelli
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Erin Palmisano
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | - Francisco Rios Casas
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
| | | | - Roger Tine
- Faculty of Medicine, Universite Cheikh Anta Diop, Dakar, Senegal
| | - Daniel Whitaker
- Technical Evaluation Reference Group, The Global Fund to Fight AIDS Tuberculosis and Malaria, Genève, Switzerland
| | - Jennifer M Ross
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
- Global Health and Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
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Bozzani FM, Sumner T, Mudzengi D, Gomez GB, White R, Vassall A. Informing Balanced Investment in Services and Health Systems: A Case Study of Priority Setting for Tuberculosis Interventions in South Africa. VALUE IN HEALTH : THE JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR PHARMACOECONOMICS AND OUTCOMES RESEARCH 2020; 23:1462-1469. [PMID: 33127017 PMCID: PMC7640941 DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2020.05.021] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/22/2020] [Revised: 04/27/2020] [Accepted: 05/10/2020] [Indexed: 05/08/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Health systems face nonfinancial constraints that can influence the opportunity cost of interventions. Empirical methods to explore their impact, however, are underdeveloped. We develop a conceptual framework for defining health system constraints and empirical estimation methods that rely on routine data. We then present an empirical approach for incorporating nonfinancial constraints in cost-effectiveness models of health benefit packages for the health sector. METHODS We illustrate the application of this approach through a case study of defining a package of services for tuberculosis case-finding in South Africa. An economic model combining transmission model outputs with unit costs was developed to examine the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening and diagnostic algorithms. Constraints were operationalized as restrictions on achievable coverage based on: (1) financial resources; (2) human resources; and (3) policy constraints around diagnostics purchasing. Cost-effectiveness of the interventions was assessed under one "unconstrained" and several "constrained" scenarios. For the unconstrained scenario, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated with and without the costs of "relaxing" constraints. RESULTS We find substantial differences in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios across scenarios, leading to variations in the decision rules for prioritizing interventions. In constrained scenarios, the limiting factor for most interventions was not financial, but rather the availability of human resources. CONCLUSIONS We find that optimal prioritization among different tuberculosis control strategies in South Africa is influenced by whether and how constraints are taken into consideration. We thus demonstrate both the importance and feasibility of considering nonfinancial constraints in health sector resource allocation models.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fiammetta M Bozzani
- Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, England, UK.
| | - Tom Sumner
- TB Modelling Group, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, England, UK
| | | | - Gabriela B Gomez
- Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, England, UK
| | - Richard White
- TB Modelling Group, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, England, UK
| | - Anna Vassall
- Department of Global Health and Development, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, England, UK; Sanofi Pasteur SA, Vaccine Epidemiology and Modelling, Lyon, France
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Avanceña ALV, Hutton DW. Optimization Models for HIV/AIDS Resource Allocation: A Systematic Review. VALUE IN HEALTH : THE JOURNAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY FOR PHARMACOECONOMICS AND OUTCOMES RESEARCH 2020; 23:1509-1521. [PMID: 33127022 DOI: 10.1016/j.jval.2020.08.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/12/2020] [Revised: 07/23/2020] [Accepted: 08/07/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This study reviews optimization models for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) resource allocation. METHODS We searched 2 databases for peer-reviewed articles published from January 1985 through August 2019 that describe optimization models for resource allocation in HIV/AIDS. We included models that consider 2 or more competing HIV/AIDS interventions. We extracted data on selected characteristics and identified similarities and differences across models. We also assessed the quality of mathematical disease transmission models based on the best practices identified by a 2010 task force. RESULTS The final qualitative synthesis included 23 articles that used 14 unique optimization models. The articles shared several characteristics, including the use of dynamic transmission modeling to estimate health benefits and the inclusion of specific high-risk groups in the study population. The models explored similar HIV/AIDS interventions that span primary and secondary prevention and antiretroviral treatment. Most articles were focused on sub-Saharan African countries (57%) and the United States (39%). There was notable variation in the types of optimization objectives across the articles; the most common was minimizing HIV incidence or maximizing infections averted (87%). Articles that utilized mathematical modeling of HIV disease and transmission displayed variable quality. CONCLUSIONS This systematic review of the literature identified examples of optimization models that have been applied in different settings, many of which displayed similar features. There were similarities in objective functions across optimization models, but they did not align with global HIV/AIDS goals or targets. Future work should be applied in countries facing the largest declines in HIV/AIDS funding.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anton L V Avanceña
- Department of Health Management and Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
| | - David W Hutton
- Department of Health Management and Policy and Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
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Zhu Q, Wang Y, Liu J, Duan X, Chen M, Yang J, Yang T, Yang S, Guan P, Jiang Y, Duan S, Wang J, Jin C. Identifying major drivers of incident HIV infection using recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs) to precisely inform targeted prevention. Int J Infect Dis 2020; 101:131-137. [PMID: 32987184 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.1421] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2020] [Revised: 09/09/2020] [Accepted: 09/11/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Recent infection testing algorithms (RITAs) incorporating clinical information with the HIV recency assay have been proven to accurately classify recent infection. However, little evidence exists on whether RITAs would help in precisely identifying major drivers of the ongoing HIV epidemic. METHODS HIV recency test results and clinical information were collected from 1152 newly diagnosed HIV cases between 2015 and 2017 in Dehong prefecture of Yunnan province, and the efficacy of four different RITAs in identifying risk factors for new HIV infection was compared. RESULTS RITA 1 uses the recency test only. RITA 2 and RITA 3 combine the recency test with CD4+ T cell count and viral load (VL), respectively. RITA 4 combines both CD4+ T cell count and VL. All RITAs identified the MSM group and young people between 15 and 24 years as risk factors for incident HIV infection. RITA 3 and RITA 4 further identified the Dai ethnic minority as a risk factor, which had not been identified before when only the HIV recency test was used. CONCLUSIONS By comparing different RITAs, we determined that greater accuracy in classifying recent HIV infection could help elucidate major drivers impacting the ongoing epidemic and thus inform targeted interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qiyu Zhu
- National AIDS Reference Laboratory, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, China
| | - Yikui Wang
- Department of AIDS Control and Prevention, Dehong Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Mangshi 678400, Yunnan, China
| | - Jing Liu
- National AIDS Reference Laboratory, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Xing Duan
- Department of AIDS Control and Prevention, Dehong Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Mangshi 678400, Yunnan, China
| | - Meibin Chen
- National AIDS Reference Laboratory, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Jin Yang
- Department of AIDS Control and Prevention, Dehong Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Mangshi 678400, Yunnan, China
| | - Tao Yang
- Department of AIDS Control and Prevention, Dehong Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Mangshi 678400, Yunnan, China
| | - Shijiang Yang
- Department of AIDS Control and Prevention, Dehong Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Mangshi 678400, Yunnan, China
| | - Peng Guan
- Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, 110122, China
| | - Yan Jiang
- National AIDS Reference Laboratory, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
| | - Song Duan
- Department of AIDS Control and Prevention, Dehong Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Mangshi 678400, Yunnan, China
| | - Jibao Wang
- Department of AIDS Control and Prevention, Dehong Prefecture Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Mangshi 678400, Yunnan, China.
| | - Cong Jin
- National AIDS Reference Laboratory, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China.
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Assefa Y, Gilks CF. Ending the epidemic of HIV/AIDS by 2030: Will there be an endgame to HIV, or an endemic HIV requiring an integrated health systems response in many countries? Int J Infect Dis 2020; 100:273-277. [PMID: 32920236 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 33] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/13/2020] [Revised: 09/03/2020] [Accepted: 09/04/2020] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
The third Sustainable Development Goal (SDG-3) has a target to end the epidemic of HIV/AIDS by 2030 (Project 2030). This will be achieved when the number of new HIV infections and 'AIDS-related deaths' decline by 90% between 2010 and 2030. So far, the rate of drop in AIDS-related deaths is on track, whereas the rate of drop in new HIV infections is off track to achieve Project 2030. Even if Project 2030 was achieved, HIV would be an endemic health problem. Hence, HIV prevention and control programmes cannot close down for the foreseeable future. This rather demands a paradigm shift from a fully vertical to an integrated health systems response that provides services according to disease burden towards universal health coverage. This will ensure the sustainability of HIV services in the post-2030 era. These all entail unrelenting political commitment, and increased and sustainable funding from both national and global sources.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yibeltal Assefa
- School of Public Health, the University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.
| | - Charles F Gilks
- School of Public Health, the University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
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Vyas S, Songo J, Guinness L, Dube A, Geis S, Kalua T, Todd J, Renju J, Crampin A, Wringe A. Assessing the costs and efficiency of HIV testing and treatment services in rural Malawi: implications for future "test and start" strategies. BMC Health Serv Res 2020; 20:740. [PMID: 32787835 PMCID: PMC7422472 DOI: 10.1186/s12913-020-05446-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/20/2020] [Accepted: 06/03/2020] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Reaching the 90-90-90 targets requires efficient resource use to deliver HIV testing and treatment services. We investigated the costs and efficiency of HIV services in relation to HIV testing yield in rural Karonga District, Malawi. METHODS Costs of HIV services were measured over 12 months to September 2017 in five health facilities, drawing on recognised health costing principles. Financial and economic costs were collected in Malawi Kwacha and United States Dollars (US$). Costs were calculated using a provider perspective to estimate average annual costs (2017 US$) per HIV testing episode, per HIV-positive case diagnosed, and per patient-year on antiretroviral therapy (ART), by facility. Costs were assessed in relation to scale of operation and facility-level annual HIV positivity rate. A one-way sensitivity analysis was undertaken to understand how staffing levels and the HIV positivity rate affected HIV testing costs. RESULTS HIV testing episodes per day and per full-time equivalent HIV health worker averaged 3.3 (range 2.0 to 5.7). The HIV positivity rate averaged 2.4% (range 1.9 to 3.7%). The average cost per testing episode was US$2.85 (range US$1.95 to US$8.55), and the average cost per HIV diagnosis was US$116.35 (range US$77.42 to US$234.11), with the highest costs found in facilities with the lowest daily number of tests and lowest HIV yield respectively. The mean facility-level cost per patient-year on ART was approximately US$100 (range US$90.67 to US$115.42). ART drugs were the largest cost component averaging 71% (range 55 to 76%). The cost per patient-year of viral load tests averaged US$4.50 (range US$0.52 to US$7.00) with cost variation reflecting differences in the tests to ART patient ratio across facilities. CONCLUSION Greater efficiencies in HIV service delivery are possible in Karonga through increasing daily testing episodes among existing health workers or allocating health workers to tasks in addition to testing. Costs per diagnosis will increase as yields decline, and therefore, encouraging targeted testing strategies that increase yield will be more efficient. Given the contribution of drug costs to per patient-year treatment costs, it is critical to preserve the life-span of first-line ART regimens, underlining the need for continuing adherence support and regular viral load monitoring.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seema Vyas
- Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT UK
| | - John Songo
- Malawi Epidemiology and Intervention Research Unit, Lilongwe, Malawi
| | | | - Albert Dube
- Malawi Epidemiology and Intervention Research Unit, Lilongwe, Malawi
| | - Steffen Geis
- Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT UK
- Malawi Epidemiology and Intervention Research Unit, Lilongwe, Malawi
- Institute of Medical Microbiology and Hygiene, Philipps University Margburg, Marburg, Germany
| | - Thokozani Kalua
- Department of HIV and AIDS, Ministry of Health, Lilongwe, Malawi
| | - Jim Todd
- Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT UK
| | - Jenny Renju
- Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT UK
| | - Amelia Crampin
- Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT UK
- Malawi Epidemiology and Intervention Research Unit, Lilongwe, Malawi
| | - Alison Wringe
- Department of Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT UK
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Abstract
PURPOSE OF REVIEW The 90-90-90 targets were launched with the aim of reaching specific milestones by 2020. To support these targets, modeling has shown that additional resources are needed. This review examines what is known about current investments for HIV in low and middle-income countries, resource needs, and the potential for additional investment. RECENT FINDINGS Reaching the 90-90-90 targets would place the global community on track to end the AIDS epidemic by 2030, significantly improving health outcomes and reducing future spending needs. Recent analyses indicate, however, that funding has slowed and there is a significant gap in resources needed to reach targets. While some studies have modeled the potential for additional HIV spending based on normative and theoretical benchmarks, there are limitations to such approaches. Others have looked at the potential to increase efficiencies. Even if spending continues at recent rates, there would still be a gap of $6.4 billion in 2020. SUMMARY There is a significant gap in resources needed to reach the 90-90-90 targets by 2020. It may be possible to reduce the gap through more efficient allocation of resources. In addition, there are efforts underway to mobilize more investment. Ultimately, any gap that remains has implications for health outcomes and future spending.
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Minnery M, Mathabela N, Shubber Z, Mabuza K, Gorgens M, Cheikh N, Wilson DP, Kelly SL. Opportunities for improved HIV prevention and treatment through budget optimization in Eswatini. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0235664. [PMID: 32701968 PMCID: PMC7377429 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0235664] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/13/2019] [Accepted: 06/20/2020] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Eswatini achieved a 44% decrease in new HIV infections from 2014 to 2019 through substantial scale-up of testing and treatment. However, it still has one of the highest rates of HIV incidence in the world, with 14 infections per 1,000 adults 15-49 years estimated for 2017. The Government of Eswatini has called for an 85% reduction in new infections by 2023 over 2017 levels. To make further progress towards this target and to achieve maximum health gains, this study aims to model optimized investments of available HIV resources. METHODS The Optima HIV model was applied to estimate the impact of efficiency strategies to accelerate prevention of HIV infections and HIV-related deaths. We estimated the number of infections and deaths that could be prevented by optimizing HIV investments. We optimize across HIV programs, then across service delivery modalities for voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), HIV testing, and antiretroviral refill, as well as switching to a lower cost antiretroviral regimen. FINDINGS Under an optimized budget, prioritising HIV testing for the general population followed by key preventative interventions may result in approximately 1,000 more new infections (2% more) being averted by 2023. More infections could be averted with further optimization between service delivery modalities across the HIV cascade. Scaling-up index and self-testing could lead to 100,000 more people getting tested for HIV (25% more tests) with the same budget. By prioritizing Fast-Track, community-based, and facility-based antiretroviral refill options, an estimated 30,000 more people could receive treatment, 17% more than baseline or US$5.5 million could be saved, 4% of the total budget. Finally, switching non-pregnant HIV-positive adults to a Dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy regimen and concentrating delivery of VMMC to existing fixed facilities over mobile clinics, US$4.5 million (7% of total budget) and US$6.6 million (10% of total budget) could be saved, respectively. SIGNIFICANCE With a relatively short five-year timeframe, even under a substantially increased and optimized budget, Eswatini is unlikely to reach their ambitious national prevention target by 2023. However, by optimizing investment of the same budget towards highly cost-effective VMMC, testing, and treatment modalities, further reductions in HIV incidence and cost savings could be realized.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Nokwazi Mathabela
- Independent, formerly National Emergency Response Council on HIV/AIDS, Mbabane, Eswatini
| | - Zara Shubber
- World Bank Group, Washington, DC, United States of America
| | - Khanya Mabuza
- National Emergency Response Council on HIV/AIDS, Mbabane, Eswatini
| | | | - Nejma Cheikh
- World Bank Group, Washington, DC, United States of America
| | - David P. Wilson
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia
- Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- University of Maryland, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
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Abstract
Purpose of review To explore the comparative importance of HIV infections among key populations and their intimate partners as HIV epidemics evolve, and to review implications for guiding responses. Recent findings Even as concentrated epidemics evolve, new infections among current and former key population members and their intimate partners dominate new infections. Prevalent infections in the general population grow primarily because of key population turnover and infections among their intimate partners. In generalized epidemic settings, data and analysis on key populations are often inadequate to assess the impact of key population-focused responses, so they remain limited in coverage and under resourced. Models must incorporate downstream infections in comparing impacts of alternative responses. Summary Recognize that every epidemic is unique, moving beyond the overly simplistic concentrated/generalized epidemic paradigm that can misdirect resources. Guide HIV responses by gathering and using locally relevant data, understanding risk heterogeneity, and applying modeling at both national and sub-national levels to optimize resource allocations among different populations for greatest impact. Translate this improved understanding into clear, unequivocal advice for policymakers on where to focus for impact, breaking them free of the generalized/concentrated paradigm limiting their thinking and affecting their decisions.
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Stuart RM, Khan O, Abeysuriya R, Kryvchun T, Lysak V, Bredikhina A, Durdykulyieva N, Mykhailets V, Kaidashova E, Doroshenko O, Shubber Z, Wilson D, Zhao F, Fraser-Hurt N. Diabetes care cascade in Ukraine: an analysis of breakpoints and opportunities for improved diabetes outcomes. BMC Health Serv Res 2020; 20:409. [PMID: 32393341 PMCID: PMC7212677 DOI: 10.1186/s12913-020-05261-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/07/2020] [Accepted: 04/28/2020] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Diabetes is one of the leading causes of poor health and high care costs in Ukraine. To prevent diabetes complications and alleviate the financial burden of diabetes care on patients, the Ukrainian government reimburses diabetes medication and provides glucose monitoring, but there are significant gaps in the care continuum. We estimate the costs of providing diabetes care and the most cost-effective ways to address these gaps in the Poltava region of Ukraine. Methods We gathered data on the unit costs of diabetes interventions in Poltava and estimated expenditure on diabetes care. We estimated the optimal combination of facility-based and outreach screening and investigated how additional funding could best be allocated to improve glucose control outcomes. Results Of the ~ 40,000 adults in diabetes care, only ~ 25% achieved sustained glucose control. Monitoring costs were higher for those who did not: by 10% for patients receiving non-pharmacological treatment, by 61% for insulin patients, and twice as high for patients prescribed oral treatment. Initiatives to improve treatment adherence (e.g. medication copayment schemes, enhanced adherence counseling) would address barriers along the care continuum and we estimate such expenditures may be recouped by reductions in patient monitoring costs. Improvements in case detection are also needed, with only around two-thirds of estimated cases having been diagnosed. Outreach screening campaigns could play a significant role: depending on how well-targeted and scalable such campaigns are, we estimate that 10–46% of all screening could be conducted via outreach, at a cost per positive patient identified of US$7.12–9.63. Conclusions Investments to improve case detection and treatment adherence are the most efficient interventions for improved diabetes control in Poltava. Quantitative tools provide essential decision support for targeting investment to close the gaps in care.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robyn Margaret Stuart
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 5, København Ø, 2300, Copenhagen, Denmark.
| | - Olga Khan
- The World Bank Group, Washington, DC, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Feng Zhao
- The World Bank Group, Washington, DC, USA
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HIV self-testing in Rwanda: awareness and acceptability among male clinic attendees in Kigali, Rwanda: A cross-sectional survey. Heliyon 2020; 6:e03515. [PMID: 32181390 PMCID: PMC7063164 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e03515] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2019] [Revised: 02/11/2020] [Accepted: 02/27/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The Rwandan Ministry of Health recently (in February 2017) recommended the use of HIV self-testing (HIVST) as an additional strategy for hard-to-reach populations such as men. However, the level of awareness and acceptability of this testing strategy among this population in Rwanda is not known. The main objective of this study is to assess the level of awareness and acceptability of HIVST among male clinic attendees in Kigali, Rwanda. Methods A cross-sectional survey was employed to systematically sample and interview 579 male health-facility attendees over a seven-week period. We employed a pretested interviewer questionnaire to collect data. The chi-square test was used to determine associations between explanatory variables. Univariate binary logistic regression analysis was carried out to obtain preliminary insight into the unconditional association of each independent variable and dependent variables (awareness and acceptability). Multiple logistic regression was employed to determine explanatory variables associated with awareness or acceptability status while adjusting for other study variables. All statistical analyses were performed using Stata version 11.2. Results Of the 579 men interviewed, only 21% were aware of HIVST, while 74% found it acceptable. Logistic regression analysis identified the following as factors significantly (p < 0.05) associated with HIVST awareness: having paid or received money for sex in the past month, health-seeking behavior, HIVST knowledge, HIVST attitude, and HIV risk perception. Factors associated with HIVST acceptability include the following: health-seeking behavior, HIVST knowledge, HIVST attitude, and condom use after taking drugs and alcohol. Conclusion The findings reveal low awareness and high acceptability of HIVST among men in Rwanda. Our findings accentuate the need to promote awareness of HIVST as an important intervention for improving the uptake of HIV testing among men, a traditionally hard-to-reach population in Rwanda.
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Stuart RM, Kelly SL, Martin-Hughes R, Wilson DP. Potential health gains in West and Central Africa through savings from lower cost HIV treatment. AIDS 2020; 34:439-446. [PMID: 31996595 DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000002419] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE Prices of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs in lower income countries have decreased substantially over the past two decades, helping to facilitate greatly expanded access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, ART coverage in many parts of the world remains low. We investigate the extent of epidemiological benefits that might be expected if ARV drug prices decline further. DESIGN A modeling study using data from seven countries in West and Central Africa (Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, and Togo). METHODS We investigated how the timing of ARV cost reductions could affect the impact and compared three different possible investment strategies: reinvesting in ART, reinvesting in the HIV response according to historical allocations, and reinvesting with the aim of minimizing HIV incidence and mortality. RESULTS If ARV drug prices fell by 37% relative to 2018 levels (i.e. following continued trend declines), we calculate ART unit costs could decrease by ∼20% (holding other cost components constant). If this could be achieved by 2020 and the savings were reinvested into ART, we estimate that an additional 8% of HIV infections and 11% of HIV-related deaths could be averted over 2020-2030 across the seven countries. Slightly greater gains could be attained if funds were reinvested in ART in combination with primary prevention. Delays in the year of introduction of ARV price reductions would reduce the impact by about 1% per year. CONCLUSION ARV price reductions could free up funds that - if strategically invested - would help countries move closer toward the elimination of HIV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Robyn M Stuart
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
- Burnet Institute
| | | | | | - David P Wilson
- Burnet Institute
- Monash University, Melbourne
- Kirby Institute, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- Department of Microbial Pathogenesis, University of Maryland, Baltimore, USA
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Kate Grabowski M, Lessler J, Bazaale J, Nabukalu D, Nankinga J, Nantume B, Ssekasanvu J, Reynolds SJ, Ssekubugu R, Nalugoda F, Kigozi G, Kagaayi J, Santelli JS, Kennedy C, Wawer MJ, Serwadda D, Chang LW, Gray RH. Migration, hotspots, and dispersal of HIV infection in Rakai, Uganda. Nat Commun 2020; 11:976. [PMID: 32080169 PMCID: PMC7033206 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-14636-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/09/2018] [Accepted: 01/18/2020] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
HIV prevalence varies markedly throughout Africa, and it is often presumed areas of higher HIV prevalence (i.e., hotspots) serve as sources of infection to neighboring areas of lower prevalence. However, the small-scale geography of migration networks and movement of HIV-positive individuals between communities is poorly understood. Here, we use population-based data from ~22,000 persons of known HIV status to characterize migratory patterns and their relationship to HIV among 38 communities in Rakai, Uganda with HIV prevalence ranging from 9 to 43%. We find that migrants moving into hotspots had significantly higher HIV prevalence than migrants moving elsewhere, but out-migration from hotspots was geographically dispersed, contributing minimally to HIV burden in destination locations. Our results challenge the assumption that high prevalence hotspots are drivers of transmission in regional epidemics, instead suggesting that migrants with high HIV prevalence, particularly women, selectively migrate to these areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mary Kate Grabowski
- Department of Pathology, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, 21287, USA.
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 627 North Washington St., Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA.
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Old Bukoba Road, P.O. Box 279, Kalisizo, Uganda.
| | - Justin Lessler
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 627 North Washington St., Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA
| | - Jeremiah Bazaale
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Old Bukoba Road, P.O. Box 279, Kalisizo, Uganda
| | - Dorean Nabukalu
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Old Bukoba Road, P.O. Box 279, Kalisizo, Uganda
| | - Justine Nankinga
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Old Bukoba Road, P.O. Box 279, Kalisizo, Uganda
| | - Betty Nantume
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Old Bukoba Road, P.O. Box 279, Kalisizo, Uganda
| | - Joseph Ssekasanvu
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 627 North Washington St., Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA
| | - Steven J Reynolds
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Old Bukoba Road, P.O. Box 279, Kalisizo, Uganda
- Laboratory of Immunoregulation, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA
| | - Robert Ssekubugu
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Old Bukoba Road, P.O. Box 279, Kalisizo, Uganda
| | - Fred Nalugoda
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Old Bukoba Road, P.O. Box 279, Kalisizo, Uganda
| | - Godfrey Kigozi
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Old Bukoba Road, P.O. Box 279, Kalisizo, Uganda
| | - Joseph Kagaayi
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Old Bukoba Road, P.O. Box 279, Kalisizo, Uganda
| | - John S Santelli
- Heilbrunn Department of Population and Family Health, Columbia University, 60 Haven Avenue, New York, NY, 10032, USA
| | - Caitlin Kennedy
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA
| | - Maria J Wawer
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 627 North Washington St., Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Old Bukoba Road, P.O. Box 279, Kalisizo, Uganda
| | - David Serwadda
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Old Bukoba Road, P.O. Box 279, Kalisizo, Uganda
- Makerere University School of Public Health, Kampala, Uganda
| | - Larry W Chang
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 627 North Washington St., Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Old Bukoba Road, P.O. Box 279, Kalisizo, Uganda
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA
- Department of International Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 615 N. Wolfe St., Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA
| | - Ronald H Gray
- Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, 627 North Washington St., Baltimore, MD, 21205, USA
- Rakai Health Sciences Program, Old Bukoba Road, P.O. Box 279, Kalisizo, Uganda
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Cantelmo CB, Lee B, Dutta A. Smart cascades: using cost analysis to improve HIV care and treatment interventions to achieve global 95-95-95 goals. AJAR-AFRICAN JOURNAL OF AIDS RESEARCH 2020; 18:350-359. [PMID: 31779567 DOI: 10.2989/16085906.2019.1679201] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/22/2022]
Abstract
Background: HIV programmes are achieving significant scale, even as external financing plateaus. Maximising achievement from identification to viral suppression is key to epidemic control and reaching global 95-95-95 goals. Cost and technical efficiency analyses can help programs understand why losses occur along the cascade, which tactics prevent losses, and additional investments required for cost-efficient solutions.Methodology: The PEPFAR- and USAID-funded Health Policy Plus (HP+) project identified cascade failure points and interventions needed in six countries (Ghana, Indonesia, Kyrgyz Republic, Kenya, Tajikistan, Tanzania). Methods included secondary data analysis and expert interviews. HP+ estimated unit costs and effectiveness of tactics to model future costs and cascade outcomes across scenarios. Conclusions across countries are synthesised for overall best practices.Results: In Ghana, Indonesia, Tajikistan, and the Kyrgyz Republic, HIV identification strategies need to evolve to counter diminishing testing yields. Higher-yield testing modes may have higher costs per person tested, yet lower costs per person identified compared to previous strategies. In Kenya, investments in linkage and retention require additional funding, and will reduce the need for expensive loss-to-follow-up activities. In Tanzania, differentiated antiretroviral therapy can improve patient management while reducing facility-level costs.Conclusion: Results from diverse settings suggest that cost-efficiency analyses aimed at smart cascades will help countries identify and resolve reasons for poor outcomes. The analyses are predicated on contextual exploration of how interventions are linked, and should inform prioritisation and investment strategies. While improving the cascade often has incremental costs, it may be cost-efficient versus the long-term cost of poor outcomes.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Bryant Lee
- Health Policy Plus Project (HP+), Palladium, Washington, USA
| | - Arin Dutta
- Health Policy Plus Project (HP+), Palladium, Washington, USA
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Marukutira T, Scott N, Kelly SL, Birungi C, Makhema JM, Crowe S, Stoove M, Hellard M. Modelling the impact of migrants on the success of the HIV care and treatment program in Botswana. PLoS One 2020; 15:e0226422. [PMID: 31940360 PMCID: PMC6961860 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0226422] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2019] [Accepted: 11/26/2019] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Introduction Botswana offers publicly financed HIV treatment to citizens, but not migrants, who comprised about 7% of the population in 2016. However, HIV incidence is not declining in proportion to Botswana’s HIV response. In 2018, Botswana had 86% of citizens living with HIV diagnosed, 95% of people diagnosed on treatment, and 95% viral suppression among those on treatment. We hypothesised that continued exclusion of migrants is hampering reduction of HIV incidence in Botswana. Hence, we modelled the impact of including migrants in Botswana’s HIV response on achieving 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 Fast-Track targets by 2020 and 2030, respectively. Methods The Optima HIV model, with demographic, epidemiological, and behavioural inputs, was applied to citizens of and migrants to Botswana. Projections of new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths were compared for three scenarios to the end of 2030: (1) continued status quo for HIV testing and treatment coverage, and maintenance of levels of linkage to care, loss to follow-up, and viral suppression among citizens and migrants (baseline); (2) with scaled-up budget, optimised to achieve 90-90-90 and 95-95-95 Fast-Track targets by 2020 and 2030, respectively, for citizens only; and (3) scaled-up optimised budget to achieve these targets for both citizens and migrants. Results A baseline of 172,000 new HIV infections and 8,400 HIV-related deaths was projected over 2020–2030. Scaling up to achieve targets among citizens only averted an estimated 48,000 infections and 1,700 deaths. Achieving targets for both citizens and migrants averted 16,000 (34%) more infections and 442 (26%) more deaths. Scaling up for both populations reduced numbers of new HIV infections and deaths by 44% and 39% respectively compared with 2010 levels. Treating migrants when scaling up in both populations was estimated to cost USD 74 million over 2020–2030. Conclusions Providing HIV services to migrants in Botswana could lead to further reductions in HIV incidence and deaths. However, even with an increased, optimised budget that achieves 95-95-95 targets for both citizens and migrants by 2030, the 90% incidence reduction target for 2020 will be missed. Further efficiencies and innovations will be needed to meet HIV targets in Botswana.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tafireyi Marukutira
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia
- Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | | | | | - Charles Birungi
- UNAIDS, Gaborone, Botswana
- University College London, London, England, United Kingdom
| | | | - Suzanne Crowe
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia
- Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Mark Stoove
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia
- Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
| | - Margaret Hellard
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia
- Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- * E-mail:
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Kedziora DJ, Stuart RM, Pearson J, Latypov A, Dierst-Davies R, Duda M, Avaliani N, Wilson DP, Kerr CC. Optimal allocation of HIV resources among geographical regions. BMC Public Health 2019; 19:1509. [PMID: 31718603 PMCID: PMC6849208 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-019-7681-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2019] [Accepted: 09/23/2019] [Indexed: 02/06/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Health resources are limited, which means spending should be focused on the people, places and programs that matter most. Choosing the mix of programs to maximize a health outcome is termed allocative efficiency. Here, we extend the methodology of allocative efficiency to answer the question of how resources should be distributed among different geographic regions. METHODS We describe a novel geographical optimization algorithm, which has been implemented as an extension to the Optima HIV model. This algorithm identifies an optimal funding of services and programs across regions, such as multiple countries or multiple districts within a country. The algorithm consists of three steps: (1) calibrating the model to each region, (2) determining the optimal allocation for each region across a range of different budget levels, and (3) finding the budget level in each region that minimizes the outcome (such as reducing new HIV infections and/or HIV-related deaths), subject to the constraint of fixed total budget across all regions. As a case study, we applied this method to determine an illustrative allocation of HIV program funding across three representative oblasts (regions) in Ukraine (Mykolayiv, Poltava, and Zhytomyr) to minimize the number of new HIV infections. RESULTS Geographical optimization was found to identify solutions with better outcomes than would be possible by considering region-specific allocations alone. In the case of Ukraine, prior to optimization (i.e. with status quo spending), a total of 244,000 HIV-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were estimated to occur from 2016 to 2030 across the three oblasts. With optimization within (but not between) oblasts, this was estimated to be reduced to 181,000. With geographical optimization (i.e., allowing reallocation of funds between oblasts), this was estimated to be further reduced to 173,000. CONCLUSIONS With the increasing availability of region- and even facility-level data, geographical optimization is likely to play an increasingly important role in health economic decision making. Although the largest gains are typically due to reallocating resources to the most effective interventions, especially treatment, further gains can be achieved by optimally reallocating resources between regions. Finally, the methods described here are not restricted to geographical optimization, and can be applied to other problems where competing resources need to be allocated with constraints, such as between diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- David J. Kedziora
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Complex Systems Group, School of Physics, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
| | - Robyn M. Stuart
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia
- Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - Alisher Latypov
- Deloitte Consulting LLP, The USAID HIV Reform in Action Project, Kyiv, Ukraine
| | | | - Maksym Duda
- Deloitte Consulting LLP, The USAID HIV Reform in Action Project, Kyiv, Ukraine
| | | | | | - Cliff C. Kerr
- Burnet Institute, Melbourne, Australia
- Complex Systems Group, School of Physics, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
- Institute for Disease Modeling, Seattle, USA
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Prabhu S, Harwell JI, Kumarasamy N. Advanced HIV: diagnosis, treatment, and prevention. Lancet HIV 2019; 6:e540-e551. [PMID: 31285181 DOI: 10.1016/s2352-3018(19)30189-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 44] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/20/2018] [Revised: 05/06/2019] [Accepted: 05/17/2019] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
Abstract
Substantial progress has been made this century in bringing millions of people living with HIV into care, but progress for early HIV diagnosis has stalled. Individuals first diagnosed with advanced HIV have higher rates of mortality than those diagnosed at an earlier stage even after starting antiretroviral therapy (ART), resulting in substantial costs to health systems. Diagnosis of these individuals is hindered because many patients are asymptomatic, despite being severely immunosuppressed. Baseline CD4 counts and screening for opportunistic infections, such as tuberculosis and cryptococcus, is crucial because of the high mortality associated with these co-infections. Individuals with advanced HIV should have rapid ART initiation (except when found to have symptoms, signs, or a diagnosis of cryptococcal meningitis) and those in treatment failure should switch treatment. Overcoming barriers to testing and adherence through the development of differentiated care models and providing psychosocial support will be key in reaching populations at high risk of presenting with advanced HIV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Sandeep Prabhu
- University of California, San Diego School of Medicine, La Jolla, CA, USA
| | | | - Nagalingeswaran Kumarasamy
- Chennai Antiviral Research and Treatment Clinical Research Site, Voluntary Health Services, Chennai, India.
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Ten Brink D, Martin-Hughes R, Kelly SL, Wilson DP. What is the impact of a 20% funding cut in international HIV aid from the United States? AIDS 2019; 33:1406-1408. [PMID: 31157667 DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000002214] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/25/2022]
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Stopard IJ, McGillen JB, Hauck K, Hallett TB. The influence of constraints on the efficient allocation of resources for HIV prevention. AIDS 2019; 33:1241-1246. [PMID: 30649065 PMCID: PMC6511422 DOI: 10.1097/qad.0000000000002158] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/06/2018] [Revised: 01/08/2019] [Accepted: 01/10/2019] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To investigate how 'real-world' constraints on the allocative and technical efficiency of HIV prevention programmes affect resource allocation and the number of infections averted. DESIGN Epidemiological modelling and economic analyses in Benin, South Africa and Tanzania. METHODS We simulated different HIV prevention programmes, and first determined the most efficient allocation of resources, in which the HIV prevention budget is shared among specific interventions, risk-groups and provinces to maximize the number of infections averted. We then identified the efficient allocation of resources and achievable impact given the following constraints to allocative efficiency: earmarking [provinces with budgets fund pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for low-risk women first], meeting targets [provinces with budgets fund universal test-and-treat (UTT) first] and minimizing changes in the geographical distribution of funds. We modelled technical inefficiencies as a reduction in the coverage of PrEP or UTT, which were factored into the resource allocation process or took effect following the allocation. Each scenario was investigated over a range of budgets, such that the impact reaches its maximum. RESULTS The 'earmarking', 'meeting targets' and 'minimizing change' constraints reduce the potential impact of HIV prevention programmes, but at the higher budgets these constraints have little to no effect (approximately 35 billion US$ in Tanzania). Over-estimating technical efficiency can result in a loss of impact compared to what would be possible if technical efficiencies were known accurately. CONCLUSION Failing to account for constraints on allocative and technical efficiency can result in the overestimation of the health gains possible, and for technical inefficiencies the allocation of an inefficient strategy.
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Affiliation(s)
- Isaac J Stopard
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
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Abou Jaoude GJ, Skordis-Worrall J, Haghparast-Bidgoli H. Measuring financial risk protection in health benefits packages: scoping review protocol to inform allocative efficiency studies. BMJ Open 2019; 9:e026554. [PMID: 31142525 PMCID: PMC6549617 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2018-026554] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/08/2018] [Revised: 04/19/2019] [Accepted: 04/24/2019] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION To progress towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC), countries will need to define a health benefits package of services free at the point of use. Financial risk protection is a core component of UHC and should therefore be considered a key dimension of health benefits packages. Allocative efficiency modelling tools can support national analytical capacity to inform an evidence-based selection of services, but none are currently able to estimate financial risk protection. A review of existing methods used to measure financial risk protection can facilitate their inclusion in modelling tools so that the latter can become more relevant to national decision making in light of UHC. METHODS AND ANALYSIS This protocol proposes to conduct a scoping review of existing methods used to measure financial risk protection and assess their potential to inform the selection of services in a health benefits package. The proposed review will follow the methodological framework developed by Arksey and O'Malley and the subsequent recommendations made by Levac et al. Several databases will be systematically searched including: (1) PubMed; (2) Scopus; (3) Web of Science and (4) Google Scholar. Grey literature will also be scanned, and the bibliography of all selected studies will be hand searched. Following the selection of studies according to defined inclusion and exclusion criteria, key characteristics will be collected from the studies using a data extraction tool. Key characteristics will include the type of method used, geographical region of focus and application to specific services or packages. The extracted data will then be charted, collated, reported and summarised using descriptive statistics, a thematic analysis and graphical presentations. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION The scoping review proposed in this protocol does not require ethical approval. The final results will be disseminated via publication in a peer-reviewed journal, conference presentations and shared with key stakeholders.
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Armstrong R, Campbell White A, Chinyamuchiko P, Chizimbi S, Hamm Rush S, Poku NK. Inclusive engagement for health and development or 'political theatre': results from case studies examining mechanisms for country ownership in Global Fund processes in Malawi, Tanzania and Zimbabwe. Global Health 2019; 15:34. [PMID: 31064386 PMCID: PMC6505082 DOI: 10.1186/s12992-019-0475-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/16/2019] [Accepted: 04/09/2019] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
Background For many countries, including Malawi, Tanzania and Zimbabwe, 2017 was a transition year for support from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria as one funding cycle closed and another would begin in 2018. Since its inception in 2001, the Global Fund has required that countries demonstrate ownership and transparency in the development of their funding requests through specific processes for inclusive, deliberative engagement led by Country Coordinating Mechanisms (CCMs). In reporting results from case study research, the article explores whether, in the context of the three countries, such requirements continue to be fit-for-purpose given difficult choices to be made for financing and sustaining their HIV programmes. Results The findings show how complex, competing priorities for limited resources increasingly strain processes for inclusive deliberation, a core feature of the Global Fund model. Each country has chosen expansion of HIV treatment programmes as its main strategy for epidemic control relying almost exclusively on external funding sources for support. This step has, in effect, pre-committed HIV funding, whether available or not, well into the future. It has also largely pre-empted the results of inclusive dialogue on how to allocate Global Fund resources. As a result, such processes may be entering the realm of ‘political theatre,’ or processes for processes’ sake alone, rather than being important opportunities where critical decisions regarding priorities for national HIV programmes and how they are funded could or should be made. Conclusion To address this, the Global Fund has begun an initiative to shore-up the capabilities of CCMs, with specialised technical and financial support, so that they can both grasp and influence the overall financing and sustainability of HIV programmes, rather than focussing on Global Fund programmes alone. What stronger CCMs could achieve, given the growing HIV-treatment-related commitments in these three countries, remains to be seen. Starting in 2020, the three countries will discover what resources the Global Fund will have for them for the 2021–2023 period. The resource needs for expanding HIV treatment programmes for this period are already foreseeable leaving few if any options for future deliberation should funding from the Global Fund and others not grow at a similar pace. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12992-019-0475-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
- Russell Armstrong
- Health Economics and HIV/AIDS Research Division, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
| | - Arlette Campbell White
- Health Economics and HIV/AIDS Research Division, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Patrick Chinyamuchiko
- Health Economics and HIV/AIDS Research Division, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Steven Chizimbi
- Health Economics and HIV/AIDS Research Division, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | | | - Nana K Poku
- Health Economics and HIV/AIDS Research Division, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
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Krentz HB, Campbell S, Lahl M, Gill MJ. De-simplifying single-tablet antiretroviral treatments: uptake, risks and cost savings. HIV Med 2019; 20:214-221. [PMID: 30632660 DOI: 10.1111/hiv.12701] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 11/05/2018] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES As more HIV-positive individuals receive antiretroviral therapy (ART), payers are seeking options for covering these increased and sustained drug costs. Strategic use of available generic antiretroviral (ARV) formulations may be feasible. De-simplifying a single-tablet co-formulation (STF) into two or more tablets using both brand and generic drugs has been proposed. We determine if voluntary de-simplification of one STF could be utilized as a cost-saving strategy. We report on the challenges, uptake, outcomes and cost savings of this initiative. METHODS Patients stable on the most commonly used STF (Triumeq® ) were offered the option of remaining on Triumeq® or switching to generic abacavir/lamivudine and Tivicay® between 1 January 2015 and 1 January 2018; those starting ART consisting of abacavir/lamivudine/doulutegravir in the same period were offered the option of starting Triumeq® or generic abacavir/laminvudine and Tivicay® . No incentives were provided. We examined the acceptance/decline rates, patient satisfaction, health care outcomes and annual cost savings. RESULTS Of 626 patients receiving Triumeq® , 321 were approached; 177 (55.1%) agreed to de-simplify. Of patients initiating ART, 62.7% chose the generic co-formulation. Patients switching to or starting on the generic co-formulation were more likely to be male, > 45 years old, Caucasian, men who have sex with men (MSM) and more HIV-experienced, and to have more comorbidities (all P < 0.05). Preference for STF was cited for declining de-simplification. No concern about generic ARVs was expressed. The rate of viral load > 500 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL after baseline was 2.7% in switched patients compared with 7.0% in those declining to switch. No de novo resistance occurred. A saving of Cdn$1 319 686 was achieved in the first year. CONCLUSIONS Reliance on altruism, while respecting patient autonomy, achieved de-simplification in > 50% of patients approached, and generated immediate cost savings with no increased risk of adverse events, viral breakthrough or resistance.
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Affiliation(s)
- H B Krentz
- Southern Alberta Clinic, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - S Campbell
- Southern Alberta Clinic, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - M Lahl
- Southern Alberta Clinic, Calgary, AB, Canada
| | - M J Gill
- Southern Alberta Clinic, Calgary, AB, Canada.,Department of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada
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Wilson DP, Gorgens M, Wilson DJ. "Optima attempts to objectively and pragmatically assist countries meet their targets most efficiently and effectively". J Int AIDS Soc 2018; 21:e25190. [PMID: 30318851 PMCID: PMC6186967 DOI: 10.1002/jia2.25190] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2018] [Accepted: 09/17/2018] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
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Affiliation(s)
- R Scott Braithwaite
- Department of Population Health, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY 10016, USA.
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