Global projections of temperature-attributable mortality due to enteric infections: a modelling study

Quantifying national burdens of foodborne disease-Four imperatives for global impact

Estimates of national burdens of the foodborne disease (FBD) inform country-level food safety policies, ranking infectious and non-infectious FBD hazards in terms of health and socioeconomic impact to mitigate FBD burdens. Using relevant publications on FBD burdens from scientific literature, this review contends that four major imperatives (health, economic, planetary boundaries, governance) argue for a sustainable programme to quantify national FBD burdens. FBD disproportionately affects children under five years of age, and low- and middle-income countries. The economic costs are significant and include medical care, child development, lost productivity and international trade losses. Climatic changes and environmental contamination cause socio-ecological disruptions, increasing risk factors for FBD. Good governance promotes food safety initiatives, addressing in part under-diagnosis and underreporting. Strengthening national policies on FBD surveillance and burden estimation can promote food safety policies and address the global and national imperatives for FBD control. Evidence-based educational and regulatory interventions for FBD can promote improvements in the health and socioeconomic circumstances of the most vulnerable.

Global prediction of agricultural soil antibiotic susceptibility and safe boundary for biota

Pervasive anthropogenic activities release substantial quantities of antibiotics into soils, damaging soil organisms, introducing antibiotic resistance, and thus jeopardizing the safe boundaries for biodiversity. Here, by applying advanced geospatial modeling and establishing the planetary boundary (PB), we estimated that, at the baseline year (2015), global agricultural soil antibiotic concentration is 122.0 μg kg-1, within the PB of 153.7 μg kg-1 beyond which the health of soil biota (including bacteria, fungi, invertebrates, and antibiotic-resistance genes) decreases dramatically. In ∼2070, soil antibiotic concentrations increase while the boundaries decrease from SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5 to SSP5-RCP8.5. Under SSP5-RCP8.5, global soil organisms face the adverse antibiotic pollution (148.9 μg kg-1) that has transgressed the boundary (136.1 μg kg-1). Our study reveals the geopolitical inequality arising from antibiotic susceptibility and highlights the urgent need of the sustainable development to avoid catastrophic consequences on global soil organisms.

Environmental Exposures Associated with Enteropathogen Infection in Six-Month-Old Children Enrolled in the ECoMiD Cohort along a Rural-Urban Gradient in Northern Ecuador†

Enteropathogens are major contributors to mortality and morbidity, particularly in settings with limited access to water, sanitation, and hygiene infrastructure. To assess transmission pathways associated with enteropathogen infection, we measured household environmental conditions and assayed 22 enteropathogens using TaqMan Array Cards in stool samples from 276 six-month-old children living in communities along a rural-urban gradient in Northern Ecuador. We utilized multivariable models, risk factor importance, and distance-based statistical methods to test factors associated with infection. Most children (89%) carried at least one pathogen, and 72% carried two or more. Bacterial infections (82% of participants) were more common than viruses (58%) or parasites (9.1%). Infants living in the urban site had decreased infection risks compared to those in rural locations. Improved water and sanitation were most predictive of reduced infection risk. Improved water was associated with decreased enterotoxigenic E. coli prevalence, and improved sanitation was associated with lower prevalence of any infection and specifically norovirus. Animal exposure was associated with increased Salmonella prevalence. Children measured during the rainy season had fewer viral and more bacterial infections. Identifying environmental exposures associated with specific pathogen outcomes provides insights into transmission pathways, which contribute critical information for developing effective strategies to improve child health.

Climate change and Vibrio vulnificus dynamics: A blueprint for infectious diseases

Climate change is having increasingly profound effects on human health, notably those associated with the occurrence, distribution, and transmission of infectious diseases. The number of disparate ecological parameters and pathogens affected by climate change are vast and expansive. Disentangling the complex relationship between these variables is critical for the development of effective countermeasures against its effects. The pathogen Vibrio vulnificus, a naturally occurring aquatic bacterium that causes fulminant septicemia, represents a quintessential climate-sensitive organism. In this review, we use V. vulnificus as a model organism to elucidate the intricate network of interactions between climatic factors and pathogens, with the objective of identifying common patterns by which climate change is affecting their disease burden. Recent findings indicate that in regions native to V. vulnificus or related pathogens, climate-driven natural disasters are the chief contributors to their disease outbreaks. Concurrently, climate change is increasing the environmental suitability of areas non-endemic to their diseases, promoting a surge in their natural populations and transmission dynamics, thus elevating the risk of new outbreaks. We highlight potential risk factors and climatic drivers aggravating the threat of V. vulnificus transmission under both scenarios and propose potential measures for mitigating its impact. By defining the mechanisms by which climate change influences V. vulnificus disease burden, we aim to shed light on the transmission dynamics of related disease-causing agents, thereby laying the groundwork for early warning systems and broadly applicable control measures.

Morbidity Risk of Infectious Gastroenteritis Attributable to Cold and Heat Temperatures: An Analysis of National Surveillance Data in Japan (2000-2019)

Introduction Climate change is a decisive factor affecting human health. While many epidemiological studies have investigated the acute impacts of ambient temperature on mortality and morbidity, the global burden of infectious gastroenteritis linked to temperature changes remains largely unexplored. Therefore, we aimed to examine the exposure-response associations between ambient temperature and infectious gastroenteritis incidence throughout Japan and quantify the temperature-related morbidity burden. Methods Weekly time-series data from 2000 to 2019, encompassing meteorological factors and infectious gastroenteritis cases, were collected from all 47 Japanese prefectures. A two-stage time-series design was employed. In the first stage, quasi-Poisson regression models combined with distributed lag non-linear models were used for each prefecture. In the second stage, a multivariate meta-analysis was conducted to derive national estimates. The attributable fractions were determined for both low and high temperatures, categorized as temperatures below or above the minimum risk temperature, respectively. Results The analysis included 19,571,939 infectious gastroenteritis cases. The exposure-response association between temperature and infectious gastroenteritis cases was non-linear, exhibiting an approximate M-shaped relationship. Overall, 51.7% (95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): 42.6, 58.4) of infectious gastroenteritis cases were attributable to non-optimal temperatures in Japan. The attributable fraction to low temperatures was 47.6% (95% eCI: 38.5, 54.2), whereas that of high temperatures was 4.1% (95% eCI: 2.4, 5.5). Conclusion The majority of the temperature-related infectious gastroenteritis burden in Japan was attributable to lower temperatures. Our findings indicate that public health strategies aimed at mitigating the burden of infectious gastroenteritis should take temperature levels into account.

Estimated prevalence and associations of sexually transmissible bacterial enteric pathogens in asymptomatic men who have sex with men: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

The reservoir of sexually transmissible bacterial enteric pathogens in asymptomatic men who have sex with men (MSM) may impact future outbreaks, and the evolution of antimicrobial resistance. We aimed to estimate the pooled prevalence and explore any factors associated with Shigella spp, Campylobacter spp, diarrhoeagenic Escherichia coli and Salmonella spp in asymptomatic MSM using the random effects model.

METHODS

We searched Embase, MEDLINE, CINAHL and Web of Science Core Collections for manuscripts published up to February 2024. One author screened citations and abstracts; two authors independently conducted a full-text review. We included manuscripts which measured the prevalence of Shigella spp, Campylobacter spp, diarrhoeagenic E. coli and Salmonella spp in asymptomatic MSM. Quality and risk of bias was assessed independently by two authors using the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools. We calculated pooled prevalence and CIs using the random effects model.

RESULTS

Six manuscripts were included in the final review. The manuscripts were from Australia (n=2), the UK (n=2), the Netherlands (n=1) and the USA (n=1) and included data from 3766 asymptomatic MSM tested for bacterial enteric pathogens. The prevalence of Shigella spp was 1.1% (95% CI 0.7% to 1.7%), Campylobacter spp 1.9% (95% CI 1.5% to 2.5%), diarrhoeagenic E. coli 3.8% (95% CI 2.1% to 6.7%) and Salmonella spp 0.3% (95% CI 0.1% to 0.6%). Two manuscripts demonstrated that the detection of bacterial enteric pathogen was more frequent in asymptomatic MSM using HIV-pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), living with HIV, reporting <5 new sexual partners in the past 3 months, reporting insertive oral-anal sex and group sex compared with MSM testing negative.

CONCLUSION

Despite a small number of manuscripts, this review has estimated the pooled prevalence, and highlighted some possible associations with sexually transmissible bacterial enteric pathogens in asymptomatic MSM, which can inform future clinical guidelines, public health control strategies and research to increase our understanding of transmission and the evolution of antimicrobial resistance.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42024518700.

Informing climate-health adaptation options through mapping the needs and potential for integrated climate-driven early warning forecasting systems in South Asia-A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Climate change is widely recognised to threaten human health, wellbeing and livelihoods, including through its effects on the emergence, spread and burdens of climate-and water-sensitive infectious diseases. However, the scale and mechanisms of the impacts are uncertain and it is unclear whether existing forecasting capacities will foster successful local-level adaptation planning, particularly in climate vulnerable regions in developing countries. The purpose of this scoping review was to characterise and map priority climate- and water-sensitive diseases, map existing forecasting and surveillance systems in climate and health sectors and scope out the needs and potential to develop integrated climate-driven early warning forecasting systems for long-term adaptation planning and interventions in the south Asia region.

METHODS

We searched Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus and PubMed using title, abstract and keywords only for papers focussing on climate-and water-sensitive diseases and explicit mention of either forecasting or surveillance systems in south Asia. We conducted further internet search of relevant national climate adaptation plans and health policies affecting disease management. We identified 187 studies reporting on climate-sensitive diseases and information systems in the south Asia context published between 1992 and 2024.

RESULTS

We found very few robust, evidenced-based forecasting systems for climate- and water- sensitive infectious diseases, which suggests limited operationalisation of decision-support tools that could inform actions to reduce disease burdens in the region. Many of the information systems platforms identified focussed on climate-sensitive vector-borne disease systems, with limited tools for water-sensitive diseases. This reveals an opportunity to develop tools for these neglected disease groups. Of the 34 operational platforms identified across the focal countries, only 13 (representing 38.2%) are freely available online and all were developed and implemented by the human health sector. Tools are needed for other south Asian countries (Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan) where the risks of infectious diseases are predicted to increase substantially due to climate change, drought and shifts in human demography and use of ecosystems.

CONCLUSION

Altogether, the findings highlight clear opportunities to invest in the co-development and implementation of contextually relevant climate-driven early warning tools and research priorities for disease control and adaptation planning.

Global burden of enteric infections related foodborne diseases, 1990-2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background

Understanding the global burden of enteric infections is crucial for prioritizing control strategies for foodborne and waterborne diseases. This study aimed to assess the global burden of enteric infections in 2021 and identify risk factors from One Health aspects.

Methods

Leveraging the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, the incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and deaths of enteric infections and the subtypes were estimated, including diarrheal diseases, typhoid and paratyphoid fever, invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella (iNTS) infections, and other intestinal infectious diseases. The estimates were quantified by absolute number, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Thirteen pathogens and three risk factors associated with diarrheal diseases were analyzed.

Results

In 2021, the global age-standardized DALY rate of enteric infections was 1020.15 per 100,000 popultion (95% UI: 822.70-1259.39 per 100,000 population) with an estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of -4.11% (95% confidence interval: -4.31% to -3.90%) in 1990-2021. A larger burden was observed in regions with lower Socio-demographic index (SDI) levels. Diarrheal disease was the most serious subtype with Western Sub-Saharan Africa exhibiting the highest age-standardized DALY rate (2769.81 per 100,000 population, 95% UI: 1976.80-3674.41 per 100,000 population). Children under 5 and adults over 65 years suffered more from diarrheal diseases with the former experiencing the highest global age-standardized DALY rate (9382.46 per 100,000 population, 95% UI: 6771.76-13,075.12 per 100,000 population). Rotavirus remained the leading cause of diarrheal diseases despite a cross-year decline in the observed age-standardized DALY rate. Unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing contributed most to the disease burden.

Conclusion

The reduced burden of enteric infections suggested the effectiveness of previous control strategies; however, more efforts should be made in vulnerable regions and populations through a One Health approach.

Association between precipitation and mortality due to diarrheal diseases by climate zone: A multi-country modeling study

Background

Precipitation could affect the transmission of diarrheal diseases. The diverse precipitation patterns across different climates might influence the degree of diarrheal risk from precipitation. This study determined the associations between precipitation and diarrheal mortality in tropical, temperate, and arid climate regions.

Methods

Daily counts of diarrheal mortality and 28-day cumulative precipitation from 1997 to 2019 were analyzed across 29 locations in eight middle-income countries (Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, India, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, and Thailand). A two-stage approach was employed: the first stage is conditional Poisson regression models for each location, and the second stage is meta-analysis for pooling location-specific coefficients by climate zone.

Results

In tropical climates, higher precipitation increases the risk of diarrheal mortality. Under extremely wet conditions (95th percentile of 28-day cumulative precipitation), diarrheal mortality increased by 17.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.4%, 25.7%) compared with minimum-risk precipitation. For temperate and arid climates, diarrheal mortality increases in both dry and wet conditions. In extremely dry conditions (fifth percentile of 28-day cumulative precipitation), diarrheal mortality risk increases by 3.8% (95% CI = 1.2%, 6.5%) for temperate and 5.5% (95% CI = 1.0%, 10.2%) for arid climates. Similarly, under extremely wet conditions, diarrheal mortality risk increases by 2.5% (95% CI = -0.1%, 5.1%) for temperate and 4.1% (95% CI = 1.1%, 7.3%) for arid climates.

Conclusions

Associations between precipitation and diarrheal mortality exhibit variations across different climate zones. It is crucial to consider climate-specific variations when generating global projections of future precipitation-related diarrheal mortality.

Zika and Chikungunya in Europe 2100 - A GIS based model for risk estimation

BACKGROUND

The spread of vector-borne infectious diseases is determined, among other things, by temperature. Thus, climate change will have an influence on their global distribution. In the future, Europe will approach the temperature optimum for the transmission of ZIKV and CHIKV. Climate scenarios and climate models can be used to depict future climatic changes and to draw conclusions about future risk areas for vector-borne infectious diseases.

METHODS

Based on the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, a geospatial analysis was carried out for the future temperature suitability of ZIKV and CHIKV in Europe. The results were presented in maps and the percentage of the affected areas calculated.

RESULTS

Due to rising temperatures, the risk areas for transmission of ZIKV and CHIKV spread in both RCP scenarios. For CHIKV transmission, Spain, Portugal, the Mediterranean coast and areas near the Black Sea are mainly affected. Due to high temperatures, large areas throughout Europe are at risk for ZIKV and CHIKV transmission.

CONCLUSION

Temperature is only one of many factors influencing the spread of vector-borne infectious diseases. Nevertheless, the representation of risk areas on the basis of climate scenarios allows an assessment of future risk development. Monitoring and adaptation strategies are indispensable for coping with and containing possible future autochthonous transmissions and epidemics in Europe.

Impact of climate change on immune responses and barrier defense

Climate change is not just jeopardizing the health of our planet but is also increasingly affecting our immune health. There is an expanding body of evidence that climate-related exposures such as air pollution, heat, wildfires, extreme weather events, and biodiversity loss significantly disrupt the functioning of the human immune system. These exposures manifest in a broad range of stimuli, including antigens, allergens, heat stress, pollutants, microbiota changes, and other toxic substances. Such exposures pose a direct and indirect threat to our body's primary line of defense, the epithelial barrier, affecting its physical integrity and functional efficacy. Furthermore, these climate-related environmental stressors can hyperstimulate the innate immune system and influence adaptive immunity-notably, in terms of developing and preserving immune tolerance. The loss or failure of immune tolerance can instigate a wide spectrum of noncommunicable diseases such as autoimmune conditions, allergy, respiratory illnesses, metabolic diseases, obesity, and others. As new evidence unfolds, there is a need for additional research in climate change and immunology that covers diverse environments in different global settings and uses modern biologic and epidemiologic tools.

"Long walk to 2030": A bibliometric and systematic review of research trends on the UN sustainable development goal 3

Background

Since the initiation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the United Nations in 2015, researchers worldwide have investigated various aspects of it. One of the key areas of interest is the third SDG, which focuses on health, with its series of indicators.

Objective

This study aims to analyze the contributions of academia by using bibliographic mapping to examine scholarly publications on SDG health from 2015 to 2021.

Methods

We analyzed bibliographic data from The Lens database between 2015 and 2021 using Bibliometrix page and VOSviewer. Our analysis focused on scholarly productivity, bibliometric analysis, and geographic distribution of the outputs.

Results

We retrieved a total of 450 documents from The Lens database, with articles being the most dominant document typology at 99.8%. The mean age of the documents was 3.85 years, with a total of 18,440 citations. The mean citation per document was 40.98, and the mean citation per document per year was 5.85. The leading article, published in The Lancet journal, studied the effect of multiple adverse childhood experiences on health and received 1809 citations in five years. Keyword co-occurrence analysis generated three clusters, with the keyword 'human' appearing in 75.11% of all the publications. The University of London and World Health Organization were the leading institutions, while the United Kingdom, the United States, and Switzerland were the most productive countries.

Conclusion

This study provides policymakers working on SDG health with valuable insights into research gaps within the indicators and funding challenges facing developing countries.

Enhancing health resilience in Japan in a changing climate

Climate change poses significant threats to human health, propelling Japan to take decisive action through the Climate Change Adaptation Act of 2018. This Act has led to the implementation of climate change adaptation policies across various sectors, including healthcare. In this review, we synthesized existing scientific evidence on the impacts of climate change on health in Japan and outlined the adaptation strategies and measures implemented by the central and local governments. The country has prioritized tackling heat-related illness and mortality and undertaken various adaptation measures to mitigate these risks. However, it faces unique challenges due to its super-aged society. Ensuring effective and coordinated strategies to address the growing uncertainties in vulnerability to climate change and the complex intersectoral impacts of disasters remains a critical issue. To combat the additional health risks by climate change, a comprehensive approach embracing adaptation and mitigation policies in the health sector is crucial. Encouraging intersectoral communication and collaboration will be vital for developing coherent and effective strategies to safeguard public health in the face of climate change.

Impact of ambient temperature on adverse pregnancy outcomes: a birth cohort study in Fuzhou, China

Background

Previous studies have identified a series of specific adverse pregnancy outcomes (APOs) linked with temperature extremes. Most of them focus on preterm birth, low birth weight, and stillbirth. Other possible adverse outcomes were under-researched. This study aimed to investigate the impact of ambient temperature on maternal complications, white blood cell count (WBC), newborn hearing, and neonatal jaundice.

Methods

A total of 418 participants were recruited from Fuzhou Maternity & Child Healthcare Hospital in 2016. Participants were invited to fill out a structured questionnaire. The gridded near-surface air temperatures at a resolution of 0.1°* 0.1° for Fuzhou were extracted from a published dataset. Meteorological data and PM2.5 were extracted based on participants' residential addresses using R packages "ncdf4" and "raster." Multivariate logistic regression models were used to quantify the effects of ambient temperature on APOs after controlling for confounders.

Results

Overall, there were 107 APOs, accounting for 25.6% of all participants. Every 1°C increase in mean temperature was associated with a 10.0% increase in APOs (aOR = 1.100, 95%CI 1.006-1.203) during the period of early pregnancy. However, negative associations were observed in the middle pregnancy period, and a 1°C increase in mean temperature was associated 8.8% decrease in APOs (aOR = 0.912, 95%CI 0.846-0.982). Diurnal temperature variation had a significant impact on APOs in the third trimester. Infant jaundice was negatively associated with temperature exposure in the middle and late pregnancy periods. The risk of neonatal jaundice increased at lag weeks 2-9 in the first trimester, with the greatest lagged effect (aOR = 1.201, 95%CI 1.020-1.413) observed at lag week 3. A 1°C increase in mean temperature led to a 29.6% (aOR = 1.296, 95%CI 1.019-1.649) increase in high WBC. A 1°C increase in temperature variation was associated with more than two times (aOR = 2.469, 95%CI 1.001-6.089) increase of high WBC in the first trimester and about five times (aOR = 4.724, 95%CI 1.548-14.409) increase in the third trimester.

Conclusion

Ambient temperature affects neonatal jaundice, newborn hearing loss, and infections during pregnancy. In addition to the identified epidemiologic link and susceptible exposure windows, there is a need to understand the underlying biological mechanisms for better recommendations for climate change adaptation policies.

Identification and antibiotic pattern analysis of bacillary dysentery causing bacteria isolated from stool samples of infected patients

Bacillary dysentery is a type of dysentery and a severe form of shigellosis. This dysentery is usually restricted to Shigella infection, but Salmonella enterica and enteroinvasive Escherichia coli strains are also known as this infection's causative agents. The emergence of drug-resistant, bacillary dysentery-causing pathogens is a global burden, especially for developing countries with poor hygienic environments. This study aimed to isolate, identify, and determine the drug-resistant pattern of bacillary dysentery-causing pathogens from the stool samples of the Kushtia region in Bangladesh. Hence, biochemical tests, serotyping, molecular identification, and antibiotic profiling were performed to characterize the pathogens. Among one hundred fifty (150) stool samples, 18 enteric bacterial pathogens were isolated and identified, where 12 were Shigella strains, 5 were S. enterica sub spp. enterica strains and one was the E.coli strain. Among 12 Shigella isolates, 8 were Shigella flexneri 2a serotypes, and 4 were Shigella sonnei Phage-II serotypes. Except for three Salmonella strains, all isolated strains were drug-resistant (83%), whereas 50% were multidrug-resistant (MDR), an alarming issue for public health. In antibiotic-wise analysis, the isolated pathogens showed the highest resistance against nalidixic acid (77.78%), followed by tetracycline (38.89%), kanamycin (38.89%), amoxicillin (27.78%), streptomycin (27.78%), cefepime (22.22%), ceftriaxone (22.22%), ampicillin (16.67%), ciprofloxacin (16.67%), and chloramphenicol (16.67%). The existence of MDR organisms that cause bacillary dysentery in the Kushtia area would warn the public to be more health conscious, and physicians would administer medications cautiously. The gradual growth of MDR pathogenic microorganisms needs immediate attention, and the discovery of effective medications must take precedence.

Supplementary information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11756-022-01299-x.

Associations between ambient temperature and enteric infections by pathogen: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have quantified the associations between ambient temperature and enteric infections, particularly all-cause enteric infections. However, the temperature sensitivity of enteric infections might be pathogen dependent. Here, we sought to identify pathogen-specific associations between ambient temperature and enteric infections.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis by searching PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus for peer-reviewed research articles published from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2019, and also hand searched reference lists of included articles and excluded reviews. We included studies that quantified the effects of ambient temperature increases on common pathogen-specific enteric infections in humans. We excluded studies that expressed ambient temperature as a categorical or diurnal range, or in a standardised format. Two authors screened the search results, one author extracted data from eligible studies, and four authors verified the data. We obtained the overall risks by pooling the relative risks of enteric infection by pathogen for each 1°C temperature rise using random-effects modelling and robust variance estimation for the correlated effect estimates. Between-study heterogeneity was measured using I², τ², and Q-statistic. Publication bias was determined using funnel plot asymmetry and the trim-and-fill method. Differences among pathogen-specific pooled estimates were determined using subgroup analysis of taxa-specific meta-analysis. The study protocol was not registered but followed the PRISMA guidelines.

FINDINGS

We identified 2981 articles via database searches and 57 articles from scanning reference lists of excluded reviews and included articles, of which 40 were eligible for pathogen-specific meta-analyses. The overall increased risks of incidence per 1°C temperature rise, expressed as relative risks, were 1·05 (95% CI 1·04-1·07; I² 97%) for salmonellosis, 1·07 (1·04-1·10; I² 99%) for shigellosis, 1·02 (1·01-1·04; I² 98%) for campylobacteriosis, 1·05 (1·04-1·07; I² 36%) for cholera, 1·04 (1·01-1·07; I² 98%) for Escherichia coli enteritis, and 1·15 (1·07-1·24; I² 0%) for typhoid. Reduced risks per 1°C temperature increase were 0·96 (95% CI 0·90-1·02; I² 97%) for rotaviral enteritis and 0·89 (0·81-0·99; I² 96%) for noroviral enteritis. There was evidence of between-pathogen differences in risk for bacterial infections but not for viral infections.

INTERPRETATION

Temperature sensitivity of enteric infections can vary according to the enteropathogen causing the infection, particularly for bacteria. Thus, we encourage a pathogen-specific health adaptation approach, such as vaccination, given the possibility of increasingly warm temperatures in the future.

FUNDING

Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Kakenhi) Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research.

Projecting Temperature-Attributable Mortality and Hospital Admissions due to Enteric Infections in the Philippines

BACKGROUND

Enteric infections cause significant deaths, and global projection studies suggest that mortality from enteric infections will increase in the future with warmer climate. However, a major limitation of these projection studies is the use of risk estimates derived from nonmortality data to project excess enteric infection mortality associated with temperature because of the lack of studies that used actual deaths.

OBJECTIVE

We quantified the associations of daily temperature with both mortality and hospital admissions due to enteric infections in the Philippines. These associations were applied to projections under various climate and population change scenarios.

METHODS

We modeled nonlinear temperature associations of mortality and hospital admissions due to enteric infections in 17 administrative regions of the Philippines using a two-stage time-series approach. First, we quantified nonlinear temperature associations of enteric infections by fitting generalized linear models with distributed lag nonlinear models. Second, we combined regional estimates using a meta-regression model. We projected the excess future enteric infections due to nonoptimal temperatures using regional temperature-enteric infection associations under various combinations of climate change scenarios according to representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and population change scenarios according to shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for 2010-2099.

RESULTS

Regional estimates for mortality and hospital admissions were significantly heterogeneous and had varying shapes in association with temperature. Generally, mortality risks were greater in high temperatures, whereas hospital admission risks were greater in low temperatures. Temperature-attributable excess deaths in 2090-2099 were projected to increase over 2010-2019 by as little as 1.3% [95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI): -3.1%, 6.5%] under a low greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 2.6) or as much as 25.5% (95% eCI: -3.5%, 48.2%) under a high greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5). A moderate increase was projected for temperature-attributable excess hospital admissions, from 0.02% (95% eCI: -2.0%, 1.9%) under RCP 2.6 to 5.2% (95% eCI: -12.7%, 21.8%) under RCP 8.5 in the same period. High temperature-attributable deaths and hospital admissions due to enteric infections may occur under scenarios with high population growth in 2090-2099.

DISCUSSION

In the Philippines, futures with hotter temperatures and high population growth may lead to a greater increase in temperature-related excess deaths than hospital admissions due to enteric infections. Our results highlight the need to strengthen existing primary health care interventions for diarrhea and support health adaptation policies to help reduce future enteric infections. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9324.

Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change

It is relatively well accepted that climate change can affect human pathogenic diseases; however, the full extent of this risk remains poorly quantified. Here we carried out a systematic search for empirical examples about the impacts of ten climatic hazards sensitive to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on each known human pathogenic disease. We found that 58% (that is, 218 out of 375) of infectious diseases confronted by humanity worldwide have been at some point aggravated by climatic hazards; 16% were at times diminished. Empirical cases revealed 1,006 unique pathways in which climatic hazards, via different transmission types, led to pathogenic diseases. The human pathogenic diseases and transmission pathways aggravated by climatic hazards are too numerous for comprehensive societal adaptations, highlighting the urgent need to work at the source of the problem: reducing GHG emissions.

Taking globally consistent health impact projections to the next level

Despite intensive research activity within the area of climate change, substantial knowledge gaps still remain regarding the potential future impacts of climate change on human health. A key shortcoming in the scientific understanding of these impacts is the lack of studies that are conducted in a coordinated and consistent fashion, producing directly comparable outputs. This Viewpoint discusses and exemplifies a bottom-up initiative generating new research evidence in a more coordinated and consistent way compared with previous efforts. It describes one of the largest model comparisons of projected health impacts due to climate change, so far. Yet, the included studies constitute only a selection of health impacts in a variety of geographical locations, and are therefore not a comprehensive assessment of all possible impact pathways and potential consequences. The new findings of these studies shed light on the complex and multidirectional impacts of climate change on health, where impacts can be both adverse or beneficial. However, the adverse impacts dominate overall, especially in the scenarios with more greenhouse gas forcing. Overall, the future population at risk of disease and incidence rates are predicted to increase substantially, but in a highly location-specific and disease-specific fashion. Greenhouse gas emission mitigation can substantially reduce risk and resultant morbidity and mortality. The potential positive impact of adaptation has not been included in the models applied, and thus remains a major source of uncertainty. This bottom-up initiative lays out a research strategy that brings more meaningful research outputs and calls for greater coordination of research initiatives across the health community.