Studies on the 1967-8 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. The relation of weather to the spread of disease

A critical review on bioaerosols-dispersal of crop pathogenic microorganisms and their impact on crop yield

Bioaerosols are potential sources of pathogenic microorganisms that can cause devastating outbreaks of global crop diseases. Various microorganisms, insects and viroids are known to cause severe crop diseases impeding global agro-economy. Such losses threaten global food security, as it is estimated that almost 821 million people are underfed due to global crisis in food production. It is estimated that global population would reach 10 billion by 2050. Hence, it is imperative to substantially increase global food production to about 60% more than the existing levels. To meet the increasing demand, it is essential to control crop diseases and increase yield. Better understanding of the dispersive nature of bioaerosols, seasonal variations, regional diversity and load would enable in formulating improved strategies to control disease severity, onset and spread. Further, insights on regional and global bioaerosol composition and dissemination would help in predicting and preventing endemic and epidemic outbreaks of crop diseases. Advanced knowledge of the factors influencing disease onset and progress, mechanism of pathogen attachment and penetration, dispersal of pathogens, life cycle and the mode of infection, aid the development and implementation of species-specific and region-specific preventive strategies to control crop diseases. Intriguingly, development of R gene-mediated resistant varieties has shown promising results in controlling crop diseases. Forthcoming studies on the development of an appropriately stacked R gene with a wide range of resistance to crop diseases would enable proper management and yield. The article reviews various aspects of pathogenic bioaerosols, pathogen invasion and infestation, crop diseases and yield.

Control technologies to prevent aerosol-based disease transmission in animal agriculture production settings: a review of established and emerging approaches

Transmission of infectious agents via aerosols is an ever-present concern in animal agriculture production settings, as the aerosol route to disease transmission can lead to difficult-to-control and costly diseases, such as porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome virus and influenza A virus. It is increasingly necessary to implement control technologies to mitigate aerosol-based disease transmission. Here, we review currently utilized and prospective future aerosol control technologies to collect and potentially inactivate pathogens in aerosols, with an emphasis on technologies that can be incorporated into mechanically driven (forced air) ventilation systems to prevent aerosol-based disease spread from facility to facility. Broadly, we find that control technologies can be grouped into three categories: (1) currently implemented technologies; (2) scaled technologies used in industrial and medical settings; and (3) emerging technologies. Category (1) solely consists of fibrous filter media, which have been demonstrated to reduce the spread of PRRSV between swine production facilities. We review the mechanisms by which filters function and are rated (minimum efficiency reporting values). Category (2) consists of electrostatic precipitators (ESPs), used industrially to collect aerosol particles in higher flow rate systems, and ultraviolet C (UV-C) systems, used in medical settings to inactivate pathogens. Finally, category (3) consists of a variety of technologies, including ionization-based systems, microwaves, and those generating reactive oxygen species, often with the goal of pathogen inactivation in aerosols. As such technologies are typically first tested through varied means at the laboratory scale, we additionally review control technology testing techniques at various stages of development, from laboratory studies to field demonstration, and in doing so, suggest uniform testing and report standards are needed. Testing standards should consider the cost-benefit of implementing the technologies applicable to the livestock species of interest. Finally, we examine economic models for implementing aerosol control technologies, defining the collected infectious particles per unit energy demand.

Airborne transmission of common swine viruses

The transmission of viral aerosols poses a vulnerable aspect in the biosecurity measures aimed at preventing and controlling swine virus in pig production. Consequently, comprehending and mitigating the spread of aerosols holds paramount significance for the overall well-being of pig populations. This paper offers a comprehensive review of transmission characteristics, influential factors and preventive strategies of common swine viral aerosols. Firstly, certain viruses such as foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV), porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV), influenza A viruses (IAV), porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) and pseudorabies virus (PRV) have the potential to be transmitted over long distances (exceeding 150 m) through aerosols, thereby posing a substantial risk primarily to inter-farm transmission. Additionally, other viruses like classical swine fever virus (CSFV) and African swine fever virus (ASFV) can be transmitted over short distances (ranging from 0 to 150 m) through aerosols, posing a threat primarily to intra-farm transmission. Secondly, various significant factors, including aerosol particle sizes, viral strains, the host sensitivity to viruses, weather conditions, geographical conditions, as well as environmental conditions, exert a considerable influence on the transmission of viral aerosols. Researches on these factors serve as a foundation for the development of strategies to combat viral aerosol transmission in pig farms. Finally, we propose several preventive and control strategies that can be implemented in pig farms, primarily encompassing the implementation of early warning models, viral aerosol detection, and air pretreatment. This comprehensive review aims to provide a valuable reference for the formulation of efficient measures targeted at mitigating the transmission of viral aerosols among swine populations.

Airborne Transmission of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus: A Review of Past and Present Perspectives

The primary transmission route for foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), a contagious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals, is by direct contact with infected animals. Yet indirect methods of transmission, such as via the airborne route, have been shown to play an important role in the spread of the disease. Airborne transmission of FMD is referred to as a low probability- high consequence event as a specific set of factors need to coincide to facilitate airborne spread. When conditions are favourable, airborne virus may spread rapidly and cause disease beyond the imposed quarantine zones, thus complicating control measures. Therefore, it is important to understand the nature of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) within aerosols; how aerosols are generated, viral load, how far aerosols could travel and survive under different conditions. Various studies have investigated emissions from infected animals under laboratory conditions, while others have incorporated experimental data in mathematical models to predict and trace outbreaks of FMD. However, much of the existing literature focussing on FMDV in aerosols describe work which was undertaken over 40 years ago. The aim of this review is to revisit existing knowledge and investigate how modern instrumentation and modelling approaches can improve our understanding of airborne transmission of FMD.

Investigations into a trigger-based approach for initiating emergency vaccination to augment stamping out of foot-and-mouth disease in New Zealand: a simulation study

AIMS

To investigate an adaptive management approach to the deployment of emergency vaccination as an additional measure to stamping out (SO) during simulated outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in New Zealand.

METHODS

A simulation modelling (n=6000 simulations) approach was used. The study population comprised all known farms in New Zealand with FMD-susceptible livestock. Each simulation started with infection seeded into a single randomly selected farm. Each outbreak was randomly assigned to one of four control strategies, comprising SO only; trigger-based vaccination (TRV) where SO was augmented with vaccination if an early decision indicator trigger operating between Days 11-35 of the response indicated a large outbreak was developing; SO plus vaccination started randomly on Days 11-35 of the response (VACr); and SO plus vaccination with a fixed start on Day 21 of the response (VACf). Other parameters, such as the number of personnel available were also varied randomly. Generalised additive models (GAM) were used to evaluate variables associated with the number of infected premises (IP) and epidemic duration.

RESULTS

The mean number of IP was 29 (median 9, min 1, max 757), while epidemics lasted on average 26.9 (median 18, min 1, max 220) days. These excluded 303 extreme outbreaks larger than the UK 2001 FMD epidemic (2,030 cases). Univariable analysis of the pooled vaccination results vs. SO, showed that vaccination significantly reduced the number of IP (p<0.001) and outbreak duration (p<0.001). GAM of large outbreaks revealed that only the TRV strategy was significantly protective compared to SO alone, reducing the odds of a large outbreak by 22% (OR=0.78; 95% CI=0.63-0.96). The number of veterinarians was non-linearly associated with large outbreaks, with low numbers increasing the odds of a large outbreak, but above 200 veterinarians, the odds reduced. Time to first detection was also non-linearly associated with large outbreaks, with detections <13 days protective and longer detection times increasing the odds of a large outbreak. GAM of long outbreaks showed similar findings, except that all three vaccination strategies significantly reduced duration. Overall, the TRV strategy resulted in the smallest and shortest epidemics.

CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE

An adaptive management approach that deployed vaccination in response to a trigger when a large outbreak was developing outperformed SO and reduced the odds of large or long outbreaks more than the other two vaccination strategies, although the differences between the three vaccination strategies were statistically small. This study provides highly relevant insights into the dynamics of disease establishment and spread that will guide New Zealand's readiness for responding to highly infectious disease incursions such as FMD.

Analysis of the Spread of COVID-19 in the USA with a Spatio-Temporal Multivariate Time Series Model

With the rapid spread of the pandemic due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the virus has already led to considerable mortality and morbidity worldwide, as well as having a severe impact on economic development. In this article, we analyze the state-level correlation between COVID-19 risk and weather/climate factors in the USA. For this purpose, we consider a spatio-temporal multivariate time series model under a hierarchical framework, which is especially suitable for envisioning the virus transmission tendency across a geographic area over time. Briefly, our model decomposes the COVID-19 risk into: (i) an autoregressive component that describes the within-state COVID-19 risk effect; (ii) a spatiotemporal component that describes the across-state COVID-19 risk effect; (iii) an exogenous component that includes other factors (e.g., weather/climate) that could envision future epidemic development risk; and (iv) an endemic component that captures the function of time and other predictors mainly for individual states. Our results indicate that maximum temperature, minimum temperature, humidity, the percentage of cloud coverage, and the columnar density of total atmospheric ozone have a strong association with the COVID-19 pandemic in many states. In particular, the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and the columnar density of total atmospheric ozone demonstrate statistically significant associations with the tendency of COVID-19 spreading in almost all states. Furthermore, our results from transmission tendency analysis suggest that the community-level transmission has been relatively mitigated in the USA, and the daily confirmed cases within a state are predominated by the earlier daily confirmed cases within that state compared to other factors, which implies that states such as Texas, California, and Florida with a large number of confirmed cases still need strategies like stay-at-home orders to prevent another outbreak.

Biosecurity in pig farms: a review

The perception of the importance of animal health and its relationship with biosecurity has increased in recent years with the emergence and re-emergence of several diseases difficult to control. This is particularly evident in the case of pig farming as shown by the recent episodes of African swine fever or porcine epidemic diarrhoea. Moreover, a better biosecurity may help to improve productivity and may contribute to reducing the use of antibiotics. Biosecurity can be defined as the application of measures aimed to reduce the probability of the introduction (external biosecurity) and further spread of pathogens within the farm (internal biosecurity). Thus, the key idea is to avoid transmission, either between farms or within the farm. This implies knowledge of the epidemiology of the diseases to be avoided that is not always available, but since ways of transmission of pathogens are limited to a few, it is possible to implement effective actions even with some gaps in our knowledge on a given disease. For the effective design of a biosecurity program, veterinarians must know how diseases are transmitted, the risks and their importance, which mitigation measures are thought to be more effective and how to evaluate the biosecurity and its improvements. This review provides a source of information on external and internal biosecurity measures that reduce risks in swine production and the relationship between these measures and the epidemiology of the main diseases, as well as a description of some systems available for risk analysis and the assessment of biosecurity. Also, it reviews the factors affecting the successful application of a biosecurity plan in a pig farm.

Multilevel model for airborne transmission of foot-and-mouth disease applied to Swedish livestock

The foot-and-mouth disease is an ever-present hazard to the livestock industry due to the huge economic consequences following an outbreak that necessitates culling of possibly infected animals in vast numbers. The disease is highly contagious and previous epizootics have shown that it spreads by many routes. One such route is airborne transmission, which has been investigated in this study by means of a detailed multilevel model that includes all scales of an outbreak. Local spread within an infected farm is described by a stochastic compartment model while the spread between farms is quantified by atmospheric dispersion simulations using a network representation of the set of farms. The model was applied to the Swedish livestock industry and the risk for an epizootic outbreak in Sweden was estimated using the basic reproduction number of each individual livestock-holding farm as the endpoint metric. The study was based on comprehensive official data sets for both the current livestock holdings and regional meteorological conditions. Three species of farm animals are susceptible to the disease and are present in large numbers: cattle, pigs and sheep. These species are all included in this study using their individual responses and consequences to the disease. It was concluded that some parts of southern Sweden are indeed preconditioned to harbor an airborne epizootic, while the sparse farm population of the north renders such events unlikely to occur there. The distribution of the basic reproduction number spans over several orders of magnitudes with low risk of disease spread from the majority of the farms while some farms may act as very strong disease transmitters. The results may serve as basic data in the planning of the national preparedness for this type of events.

Temporal and geographic distribution of weather conditions favorable to airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease in the coterminous United States

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious viral disease of cloven-hoofed animals. FMD outbreaks have the potential to cause significant economic consequences, and effective control strategies are needed to minimize the damage to livestock systems and the economy. Although not the predominant route of infection, airborne transmission has been implicated in previous outbreaks. Under favorable weather conditions, airborne spread of FMD can make the rapid containment of an outbreak more difficult. Our objective was to identify seasonal and geographic differences in patterns of conditions favorable to airborne FMD spread in the United States. Data from a national network of surface weather stations were examined for three study years (December 2011-November 2012, December 2012-November 2013, December 2014-November 2015). Weather conditions were found to be most frequently favorable to airborne spread during the winter (December, January, February). Geographically, conditions were most frequently favorable to airborne FMD spread in the upper Midwestern United States, a region where swine and cattle populations are common. Across study years, conditions for airborne FMD spread were more frequently favorable when weather conditions were generally mild with few extremes with respect to temperature and precipitation (e.g., 2014-2015). However, national patterns in risk areas for airborne FMD spread were similar across study years even though the degree of risk differed based on variations in weather patterns among study years. Our findings suggest that airborne transmission could contribute to FMD spread between livestock premises in the event of an outbreak in the coterminous United States, and that some geographic areas are at an increased risk particularly in seasons with conducive weather conditions. To our knowledge, this is the first study to characterize the risk of airborne FMD spread on a national scale in the United States. The findings presented here can be used to enhance preparedness and surveillance activities by identifying specific geographic areas in the United States where airborne spread is most likely to be a risk factor for transmission during an outbreak.

Culturable bioaerosols along an urban waterfront are primarily associated with coarse particles

The source, characteristics and transport of viable microbial aerosols in urban centers are topics of significant environmental and public health concern. Recent studies have identified adjacent waterways, and especially polluted waterways, as an important source of microbial aerosols to urban air. The size of these aerosols influences how far they travel, their resistance to environmental stress, and their inhalation potential. In this study, we utilize a cascade impactor and aerosol particle monitor to characterize the size distribution of particles and culturable bacterial and fungal aerosols along the waterfront of a New York City embayment. We seek to address the potential contribution of bacterial aerosols from local sources and to determine how their number, size distribution, and taxonomic identity are affected by wind speed and wind direction (onshore vs. offshore). Total culturable microbial counts were higher under offshore winds (average of 778 CFU/m³ ± 67), with bacteria comprising the majority of colonies (58.5%), as compared to onshore winds (580 CFU/m³ ± 110) where fungi were dominant (87.7%). The majority of cultured bacteria and fungi sampled during both offshore winds (88%) and onshore winds (72%) were associated with coarse aerosols (>2.1 µm), indicative of production from local sources. There was a significant correlation (p < 0.05) of wind speed with both total and coarse culturable microbial aerosol concentrations. Taxonomic analysis, based on DNA sequencing, showed that Actinobacteria was the dominant phylum among aerosol isolates. In particular, Streptomyces and Bacillus, both spore forming genera that are often soil-associated, were abundant under both offshore and onshore wind conditions. Comparisons of bacterial communities present in the bioaerosol sequence libraries revealed that particle size played an important role in microbial aerosol taxonomy. Onshore and offshore coarse libraries were found to be most similar. This study demonstrates that the majority of culturable bacterial aerosols along a New York City waterfront were associated with coarse aerosol particles, highlighting the importance of local sources, and that the taxonomy of culturable aerosol bacteria differed by size fraction and wind direction.

Aerosol transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus Asia-1 under experimental conditions

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) control measures rely on understanding of virus transmission mechanisms. Direct contact between naïve and infected animals or spread by contaminated fomites is prevented by quarantines and rigorous decontamination procedures during outbreaks. Transmission of FMDV by aerosol may not be prevented by these control measures and this route of transmission may allow infection of animals at distance from the infection source. Understanding the potential for aerosol spread of specific FMDV strains is important for informing control strategies in an outbreak. Here, the potential for transmission of an FMDV Asia 1 strain between pigs and cattle by indirect aerosol exposure was evaluated in an experimental setting. Four naïve calves were exposed to aerosols emitted from three infected pigs in an adjacent room for a 10h period. Direct contact between pigs and cattle and fomite transfer between rooms was prevented. Viral titres in aerosols emitted by the infected pigs were measured to estimate the dose that calves were exposed to. One of the calves developed clinical signs of FMD, whilst there was serological evidence for spread to cattle by aerosol transmission in the remaining three calves. This highlights the possibility that this FMDV Asia 1 strain could be spread by aerosol transmission given appropriate environmental conditions should an outbreak occur in pigs. Our estimates suggest the exposure dose required for aerosol transmission was higher than has been previously quantified for other serotypes, implying that aerosols are less likely to play a significant role in transmission and spread of this FMDV strain.

Diagnostic assays developed for the control of foot-and-mouth disease in India

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically devastating disease of livestock, primarily affecting cattle, buffalo and pigs. FMD virus serotypes O, A and Asia1 are prevalent in India and systematic efforts are on to control and eventually eradicate the disease from the country. FMD epidemiology is complex due to factors like co-circulation, extinction, emergence and re-emergence of genotypes/lineages within the three serotypes, animal movement, diverse farm practices and large number of susceptible livestock in the country. Systematic vaccination, prompt diagnosis, strict biosecurity measures, and regular monitoring of vaccinal immunity and surveillance of virus circulation are indispensible features for the effective implementation of the control measures. Availability of suitable companion diagnostic tests is very important in this endeavour. In this review, the diagnostic assays developed and validated in India and their contribution in FMD control programme is presented.

Aeromicrobiology

Biological material including microorganisms and toxins can be found in air or the atmosphere, and the study of this area is termed “aeromicrobiology.” Airborne biological materials are known as bioaerosols. This chapter introduces the basics of aeromicrobiology including the nature of bioaerosols and fundamentals of the aeromicrobiological (AMB) pathway. The nature of the atmosphere as a microbial habitat, and the factors that influence microbial survival in the air are described. This is followed by a discussion of extramural aeromicrobiology related to aerosolization of indigenous soil pathogens; influenza pandemics; microbiology in the clouds; agriculture; waste disposal; and airborne toxins. Intramural microbiology within buildings is discussed with respect to public health within buildings, hospitals and laboratories. Finally, measures to control bioaerosols including biosafety in the laboratory are documented.

Bayesian analysis for inference of an emerging epidemic: citrus canker in urban landscapes

Outbreaks of infectious diseases require a rapid response from policy makers. The choice of an adequate level of response relies upon available knowledge of the spatial and temporal parameters governing pathogen spread, affecting, amongst others, the predicted severity of the epidemic. Yet, when a new pathogen is introduced into an alien environment, such information is often lacking or of no use, and epidemiological parameters must be estimated from the first observations of the epidemic. This poses a challenge to epidemiologists: how quickly can the parameters of an emerging disease be estimated? How soon can the future progress of the epidemic be reliably predicted? We investigate these issues using a unique, spatially and temporally resolved dataset for the invasion of a plant disease, Asiatic citrus canker in urban Miami. We use epidemiological models, Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo, and advanced spatial statistical methods to analyse rates and extent of spread of the disease. A rich and complex epidemic behaviour is revealed. The spatial scale of spread is approximately constant over time and can be estimated rapidly with great precision (although the evidence for long-range transmission is inconclusive). In contrast, the rate of infection is characterised by strong monthly fluctuations that we associate with extreme weather events. Uninformed predictions from the early stages of the epidemic, assuming complete ignorance of the future environmental drivers, fail because of the unpredictable variability of the infection rate. Conversely, predictions improve dramatically if we assume prior knowledge of either the main environmental trend, or the main environmental events. A contrast emerges between the high detail attained by modelling in the spatiotemporal description of the epidemic and the bottleneck imposed on epidemic prediction by the limits of meteorological predictability. We argue that identifying such bottlenecks will be a fundamental step in future modelling of weather-driven epidemics.

Reanalysis of the start of the UK 1967 to 1968 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic to calculate airborne transmission probabilities

The aims of this study were to statistically reassess the likelihood that windborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus (FMDV) occurred at the start of the UK 1967 to 1968 FMD epidemic at Oswestry, Shropshire, and to derive dose-response probability of infection curves for farms exposed to airborne FMDV. To enable this, data on all farms present in 1967 in the parishes near Oswestry were assembled. Cases were infected premises whose date of appearance of first clinical signs was within 14 days of the depopulation of the index farm. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between infection status and distance and direction from the index farm. The UK Met Office's NAME atmospheric dispersion model (ADM) was used to generate plumes for each day that FMDV was excreted from the index farm based on actual historical weather records from October 1967. Daily airborne FMDV exposure rates for all farms in the study area were calculated using a geographical information system. Probit analyses were used to calculate dose-response probability of infection curves to FMDV, using relative exposure rates on case and control farms. Both the logistic regression and probit analyses gave strong statistical support to the hypothesis that airborne spread occurred. There was some evidence that incubation period was inversely proportional to the exposure rate.

Vaccination strategies for emerging disease epidemics of livestock

Well-designed immunization programs have an important role in the control of disease outbreaks in cattle. The success of these immunization programs depends on the coordinated and effective use of an efficacious vaccine along with other required control measures. Efforts to improve key characteristics of vaccines (such as onset of immunity, duration of immunity, and basic safety and efficacy) will allow greater utility of the vaccines for outbreak control.

Airborne particulate matter from livestock production systems: a review of an air pollution problem

Livestock housing is an important source of emissions of particulate matter (PM). High concentrations of PM can threaten the environment, as well as the health and welfare of humans and animals. Particulate matter in livestock houses is mainly coarse, primary in origin, and organic; it can adsorb and contain gases, odorous compounds, and micro-organisms, which can enhance its biological effect. Levels of PM in livestock houses are high, influenced by kind of housing and feeding, animal type, and environmental factors. Improved knowledge on particle morphology, primarily size, composition, levels, and the factors influencing these can be useful to identify and quantify sources of PM more accurately, to evaluate their effects, and to propose adequate abatement strategies in livestock houses. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of PM in and from livestock production systems. Future research to characterize and control PM in livestock houses is discussed.

Predicting infection risk of airborne foot-and-mouth disease

Foot-and-mouth disease is a highly contagious disease of cloven-hoofed animals, the control and eradication of which is of significant worldwide socio-economic importance. The virus may spread by direct contact between animals or via fomites as well as through airborne transmission, with the latter being the most difficult to control. Here, we consider the risk of infection to flocks or herds from airborne virus emitted from a known infected premises. We show that airborne infection can be predicted quickly and with a good degree of accuracy, provided that the source of virus emission has been determined and reliable geo-referenced herd data are available. A simple model provides a reliable tool for estimating risk from known sources and for prioritizing surveillance and detection efforts. The issue of data information management systems was highlighted as a lesson to be learned from the official inquiry into the UK 2007 foot-and-mouth outbreak: results here suggest that the efficacy of disease control measures could be markedly improved through an accurate livestock database incorporating flock/herd size and location, which would enable tactical as well as strategic modelling.

Airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease--model intercomparison

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spreads by direct contact between animals, by animal products (milk, meat and semen), by mechanical transfer on people or fomites and by the airborne route, with the relative importance of each mechanism depending on the particular outbreak characteristics. Atmospheric dispersion models have been developed to assess airborne spread of FMDV in a number of countries, including the UK, Denmark, Australia, New Zealand, USA and Canada. These models were compared at a Workshop hosted by the Institute for Animal Health/Met Office in 2008. Each modeller was provided with data relating to the 1967 outbreak of FMD in Hampshire, UK, and asked to predict the spread of FMDV by the airborne route. A number of key issues emerged from the Workshop and subsequent modelling work: (1) in general all models predicted similar directions for livestock at risk, with much of the remaining differences strongly related to differences in the meteorological data used; (2) determination of an accurate sequence of events on the infected premises is highly important, especially if the meteorological conditions vary substantially during the virus emission period; (3) differences in assumptions made about virus release, environmental fate and susceptibility to airborne infection can substantially modify the size and location of the downwind risk area. All of the atmospheric dispersion models compared at the Workshop can be used to assess windborne spread of FMDV and provide scientific advice to those responsible for making control and eradication decisions in the event of an outbreak of disease.

Foot-and-mouth disease: A review of intranasal infection of cattle, sheep and pigs

In an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) it is important to identify animals at risk from airborne virus. Investigations have been carried out over the years to determine the dose required to infect cattle, sheep and pigs by the intranasal route. This paper reviews the results of investigations for animals which have been infected by instillation or spraying a virus suspension into the nostrils or by exposure to affected animals through a mask or by indirect contact. The lowest doses were found by use of a mask. With virus from affected pigs given through a mask, doses of 18 infectious units (IU) in cattle and 8 IU in sheep were found to cause infection and give rise to lesions. Overall, cattle required the least amount of virus followed by sheep. Pigs required a dose of 22 IU to cause infection and a dose of 125 IU to give rise to lesions. In many experiments pigs failed to become infected. With all three species the dose varied with the individual animal and the virus strain. For modelling previous outbreaks and in real time, a dose of 8 IU or 10 and 50% infectious doses (ID50) could be used where cattle and sheep were involved. Experience in the field, combined with the results from experiments involving natural infection, indicate that pigs are not readily infected by the intranasal route. However, for modelling purposes a dose of about 25 IU should be used with care. Investigations are needed to determine doses for virus strains currently in circulation around the world. In addition, the nature of the aerosol droplets needs to be analysed to determine how the respective amounts of infective and non-infective virus particles, host components and, in later emissions, the presence of antibody affect the survival in air and ability to infect the respiratory tract. Further work is also required to correlate laboratory and field findings through incorporation of the doses into modelling the virus concentration downwind in order that those responsible for controlling FMD are provided with the best available assessment of airborne spread. Finally, the doses found for infection by the intranasal route could be applied to other methods of spread where virus is inhaled to assess risk.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus forms a highly stable, EDTA-resistant complex with its principal receptor, integrin alphavbeta6: implications for infectiousness

The initial stage of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) infection is virus binding to cell surface integrins via the RGD motif in the GH loop of the VP1 capsid protein. As for all ligand/integrin interactions, the initial contact between FMDV and its integrin receptors is cation dependent and hence inhibited by EDTA. We have investigated this binding process with RGD-containing peptides derived from the VP1 capsid protein of FMDV and discovered that, upon binding, some of these peptides form highly stable, EDTA-resistant associations with integrin alphavbeta6. Peptides containing specific substitutions show that this stable binding is dependent on a helical structure immediately C terminal to the RGD and, specifically, two leucine residues at positions RGD +1 and RGD +4. These observations have a biological consequence, as we show further that stable, EDTA-resistant binding to alphavbeta6 is a property also exhibited by FMDV particles. Thus, the integrin-binding loop of FMDV appears to have evolved to form very stable complexes with the principal receptor of FMDV, integrin alphavbeta6. An ability to induce such stable complexes with its cellular receptor is likely to contribute significantly to the high infectiousness of FMDV.

Foot-and-mouth disease: measurements of aerosol emission from pigs as a function of virus strain and initial dose

Measurements of airborne foot-and-mouth disease virus have been made using 20 pigs that had either O UKG or C Noville injected into their heel-pads to determine if the kinetics of virus emission are related to the virus strain and dose administered in the challenge inoculum. Viable virus was detected in aerosol emissions for 3 days regardless of the strain or dose of virus given. No correlation was found between the peak level of virus emission and dose, but pigs infected with a lower dose of virus had a delayed onset of aerosol emission and emitted a greater total amount of aerosolised virus. Irrespective of the dose, both the total amount and the peak level of virus emission were higher from pigs infected with C Noville compared to those infected with O UKG. The results suggest that care should be taken when extrapolating from laboratory derived data to the field; this is particularly the case in the early days of an outbreak when the aerosol characteristics of the virus involved may be unknown and the amount of virus that an individual animal has been challenged with remains uncertain.

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (O/UKG/2001) is poorly transmitted between sheep by the airborne route

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) can be spread by the airborne route and therefore atmospheric dispersion models have been developed to predict where the virus might spread during a disease outbreak. Airborne transmission between sheep of the FMDV strain involved in the outbreak in Europe in 2001 (O/UKG/2001) was studied experimentally. Recipient animals were exposed to two donor sheep excreting virus for 2, 4, 6, 8 or 24 h. Although FMDV was detected in air samples collected during challenge, none of the recipient sheep became infected. These data suggest that O/UKG/2001 is not efficiently transmitted by the airborne route between sheep.

Space and contact networks: capturing the locality of disease transmission

While an arbitrary level of complexity may be included in simulations of spatial epidemics, computational intensity and analytical intractability mean that such models often lack transparency into the determinants of epidemiological dynamics. Although numerous approaches attempt to resolve this complexity-tractability trade-off, moment closure methods arguably offer the most promising and robust frameworks for capturing the role of the locality of contact processes on global disease dynamics. While a close analogy may be made between full stochastic spatial transmission models and dynamic network models, we consider here the special case where the dynamics of the network topology change on time-scales much longer than the epidemiological processes imposed on them; in such cases, the use of static network models are justified. We show that in such cases, static network models may provide excellent approximations to the underlying spatial contact process through an appropriate choice of the effective neighbourhood size. We also demonstrate the robustness of this mapping by examining the equivalence of deterministic approximations to the full spatial and network models derived under third-order moment closure assumptions. For systems where deviation from homogeneous mixing is limited, we show that pair equations developed for network models are at least as good an approximation to the underlying stochastic spatial model as more complex spatial moment equations, with both classes of approximation becoming less accurate only for highly localized kernels.

Foot-and-mouth disease - quantification and size distribution of airborne particles emitted by healthy and infected pigs

There is strong evidence to suggest that foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) can be transmitted by airborne virus up to many kilometres from a virus source. Atmospheric dispersion models are often used to predict where this disease might spread. This study investigated whether FMD virus (FMDV) aerosol has specific characteristics which need to be taken into consideration in these models. The characteristics and infectiousness of particles emitted by 12 pigs have been studied pre- and post-infection with O UKG 2001 FMDV. Aerosol generated by individual pigs was found log normally distributed in the range 0.015-20.0microm with concentrations between 1000 and 10000cm(-3) at the smallest size and <1cm(-3) above 10microm. No differences in either the total number of particles produced or their size distribution were detected between uninfected and infected pigs. However, a correlation between aerosol concentration and animal activity was found with a more active pig producing significantly greater concentrations than those that were less active. Viable virus was found up to a maximum of 6.3 log TCID(50)/24h/animal. The virus was distributed almost equally across the three size ranges; <3, 3-6 and >6microm. No correlation could be established between the production of virus and animal activity. In general the production of airborne virus closely followed the detection of viraemia in the blood and the presence of clinical symptoms. However, in one instance a pig excreted as much airborne virus as the other animals in the study, but with less virus detected in its blood. The results suggest that there is little merit in including a sophisticated virus release pattern based on physical activity periods or FMDV aerosol size spectrum, together with the appropriate dry deposition calculations, in models used to predict airborne spread of FMD. An estimate of the total daily virus production based on the clinical assessment of disease and virus strain is sufficient as input.

The role of spatial mixing in the spread of foot-and-mouth disease

A model of epidemic dispersal (based on the assumption that susceptible cattle were homogeneously mixed over space, or non-spatial model) was compared to a partially spatially explicit and discrete model (the spatial model), which was composed of differential equations and used geo-coded data (Euclidean distances between county centroids). While the spatial model accounted for intra- and inter-county epidemic spread, the non-spatial model did not assess regional differences. A geo-coded dataset that resembled conditions favouring homogeneous mixing assumptions (based on the 2001 Uruguayan foot-and-mouth disease epidemic), was used for testing. Significant differences between models were observed in the average transmission rate between farms, both before and after a control policy (animal movement ban) was imposed. They also differed in terms of daily number of infected farms: the non-spatial model revealed a single epidemic peak (at, approximately, 25 epidemic days); while the spatial model revealed two epidemic peaks (at, approximately, 12 and 28 days, respectively). While the spatial model fitted well with the observed cumulative number of infected farms, the non-spatial model did not (P<0.01). In addition, the spatial model: (a) indicated an early intra-county reproductive number R of approximately 87 (falling to <1 within 25 days), and an inter-county R<1; (b) predicted that, if animal movement restrictions had begun 3 days before/after the estimated initiation of such policy, cases would have decreased/increased by 23 or 26%, respectively. Spatial factors (such as inter-farm distance and coverage of vaccination campaigns, absent in non-spatial models) may explain why partially explicit spatial models describe epidemic spread more accurately than non-spatial models even at early epidemic phases. Integration of geo-coded data into mathematical models is recommended.

Foot-and-mouth disease: an assessment of the risks facing New Zealand

Although New Zealand has never had a case of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), the threat that this disease poses to the economy of this country has long been recognised. The unprecedented global spread of FMD caused by the type-O PanAsia strain, culminating in the outbreak that occurred in the United Kingdom in early 2001, has refocussed the concerns of biosecurity agencies worldwide. The 3 lines of defence against exotic disease incursions in this country are border controls, surveillance and incursion response capability. This article reviews the pathogenesis, virus survival, routes of infection and methods of spread of FMD virus, and in the light of recent international developments, presents a summary of the major risks of introduction and dissemination of FMD virus and the risk-management measures in place for this country.

The foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Dumfries and Galloway, 2001. 1: Characteristics and control

The foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Dumfries and Galloway in south-west Scotland comprised 177 infected premises (IPS) in 24 geographical clusters, and ran from March 1 until May 23, 2001. Initial seeding of infection was by livestock (predominantly sheep) that had passed through Longtown Market in adjacent Cumbria. Thereafter, spread within existing, and to new, clusters was associated with the movement of personnel and vehicles, with further transmission by Longtown Market contacts and across common boundaries. Sheep and cattle premises were equally affected. After the peak of the epidemic at the beginning of the third week of March, the upper possible limit of attack rates for premises contiguous to IPS, and premises within 3 km, remained around 10 per cent, with new clusters emerging more distantly. Control procedures included traditional methods of slaughter of all animals on IPS and, elsewhere, of animals considered by veterinary assessment to be Dangerous Contacts; movement restrictions; enhanced biosecurity; tracing of potential sources and spread of virus; and surveillance of premises subsequently considered at risk. These methods were supplemented by the novel pre-emptive slaughter, without veterinary assessment, of all susceptible livestock on all premises contiguous to IPS, and of small ruminants and pigs within a 3 km radius (known as the Protection Zone) around IPS. In total, approximately 80,000 cattle, 564,000 sheep, 2600 pigs and 500 goats were slaughtered, the novel methods accounting for 29 per cent of all cattle and 75 per cent of all sheep killed. Limitations of existing national databases necessitated the development of local databases to administer control procedures.

The effects of meteorological factors on atmospheric bioaerosol concentrations--a review

Over land surfaces a quarter of the total airborne particulate may be made up of biological material in the form of pollen, fungal spores, bacteria, viruses, or fragments of plant and animal matter. Meteorological variables affect the initial release of this material and its dispersal once airborne. Temperature and water availability will affect the size of the source and will control the release of some actively released fungal spores. Inertly released material will become airborne when the drying of the surface reduces bonding forces, and when the material is disrupted by sufficiently strong air movement or by mechanical disturbance. The wind speed necessary to disrupt material is noted to be less on a plant surface than on the ground surface. Measurements of the concentrations of airborne material near dominant sources are reviewed for both area sources, and for point sources such as sewage and waste treatment works, agricultural practices, and diseased animals. The concentration of airborne material remote from sources is considered along with the effects of on and off shore winds and some examples of long distance transport of material. The vertical concentration of bacteria is noted to decline less rapidly than that of fungal spores. The short-term variation of pollen, fungal spore, and bacterial concentrations are also considered.

A stochastic-modeling evaluation of the foot-and-mouth-disease survey conducted after the outbreak in Miyazaki, Japan in 2000

When foot-and-mouth-disease (FMD) was identified in Miyazaki prefecture in March 2000, Japan conducted an intensive serological and clinical survey in the areas surrounding the index herd. As a result of the survey during the 21 days of the movement-restriction period, two infected herds were detected and destroyed; there were no other cases in the months that followed. To evaluate the survey used for screening the disease-control area and surveillance area, we estimated the herd-level sensitivity of the survey (HSe) through a spreadsheet model using Monte-Carlo methods. The Reed-Frost model was incorporated to simulate the spread of FMD within an infected herd. In the simulations, 4, 8 and 12 effective-contact scenarios during the 5-day period were examined. The estimated HSes of serological tests (HSeE) were 71.0, 75.3 and 76.3% under the 4, 8 and 12 contact scenarios, respectively. The sensitivity analysis showed that increasing the number of contacts beyond 12 did not improve HSeE, but increasing the number of sampled animals and delaying the dates of sampling did raise HSeEs. Small herd size in the outbreak area (>80% of herds have <20 animals) seems to have helped in maintaining HSeE relatively high, although the serological inspection was carried out before sero-positive animals had a chance to increase in infected herds. The estimated herd-level specificity of serological tests (HSpE) was 98.6%. This HSpE predicted 224 false-positive herds (5th percentile estimate was 200 and 95th percentile was 249), which proved close to the 232 false-positive herds actually observed. The combined-test herd-level sensitivity (serological and clinical inspections combined; CTHSe), averaged 85.5, 87.6 and 88.1% for the 4, 8 and 12 contact scenarios, respectively. Using these CTHSes, the calculated probability that no infected herd was overlooked by the survey was > or =62.5% under the most-conservative, four-contact scenario. The probability that no more than one infected herd was overlooked was > or =89.7%.

Airborne transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus from Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall, Northumberland, during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom

The results of a detailed assessment of the atmospheric conditions when foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus was released from Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall, Northumberland at the start of the 2001 epidemic in the UK are consistent with the hypothesis that the disease was spread to seven of the 12 farms in the immediate vicinity of the source by airborne virus, and airborne infection could not be ruled out for three other premises; the remaining two premises were unlikely to have been infected by airborne virus. The distances involved ranged from less than 1 km up to 9 km. One of the farms which was most probably infected by airborne virus from Burnside Farm was Prestwick Hall Farm, which is believed to have been key to the rapid spread of the disease throughout the country. In contrast, the results of detailed atmospheric modelling, based on a combination of clinical evidence from the field and laboratory experiments have shown that by assuming a relationship between the 24-hour average virus concentrations and subsequent infection, threshold infection levels were seldom reached at the farms close to Burnside Farm. However, significant short-term fluctuations in the concentration of virus can occur, and short-lived high concentrations may have increased the probability of infection and explain this discrepancy.

A point pattern model of the spread of foot-and-mouth disease

The spatial spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is influenced by several sources of spatial heterogeneity: heterogeneity of the exposure to the virus, heterogeneity of the animal density and heterogeneity of the networks formed by the contacts between farms. A discrete space model assuming that farms can be reduced to points is proposed to handle these different factors. The farm-to-farm process of transmission of the infection is studied using point-pattern methodology. Farm management, commercial exchanges, possible airborne transmission, etc. cannot be explicitly taken into account because of lack of data. These latter factors are introduced via surrogate variables such as herd size and distance between farms. The model is built on the calculation of an infectious potential for each farm. This method has been applied to the study of the 1967-1968 FMD epidemic in UK and allowed us to evaluate the spatial variation of the probability of infection during this epidemic. Maximum likelihood estimation has been conducted conditional on the absence of data concerning the farms which were not infected during the epidemic. Model parameters have then been tested using an approximated conditional-likelihood ratio test. In this case study, results and validation are limited by the lack of data, but this model can easily be extended to include other information such as the effect of wind direction and velocity on airborne spread of the virus or the complex interactions between the locations of farms and the herd size. It can also be applied to other diseases where point approximation is convenient. In the context of an increase of animal density in some areas, the model explicitly incorporates the density and known epidemiological characteristics (e.g. incubation period) in the calculation of the probability of FMD infection. Control measures such as vaccination or slaughter can be simply introduced, respectively, as a reduction of the susceptible population or as a reduction of the source of infection.

Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape

Foot-and-mouth is one of the world's most economically important livestock diseases. We developed an individual farm-based stochastic model of the current UK epidemic. The fine grain of the epidemiological data reveals the infection dynamics at an unusually high spatiotemporal resolution. We show that the spatial distribution, size, and species composition of farms all influence the observed pattern and regional variability of outbreaks. The other key dynamical component is long-tailed stochastic dispersal of infection, combining frequent local movements with occasional long jumps. We assess the history and possible duration of the epidemic, the performance of control strategies, and general implications for disease dynamics in space and time.

The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: pattern of spread and impact of interventions

We present an analysis of the current foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain over the first 2 months of the spread of the virus. The net transmission potential of the pathogen and the increasing impact of control measures are estimated over the course of the epidemic to date. These results are used to parameterize a mathematical model of disease transmission that captures the differing spatial contact patterns between farms before and after the imposition of movement restrictions. The model is used to make predictions of future incidence and to simulate the impact of additional control strategies. Hastening the slaughter of animals with suspected infection is predicted to slow the epidemic, but more drastic action, such as "ring" culling or vaccination around infection foci, is necessary for more rapid control. Culling is predicted to be more effective than vaccination.

The importance of immediate destruction in epidemics of foot and mouth disease

Foot and mouth disease is still prevalent in many parts of the world, as emphasised by the recent devastating epidemic in pig farms in Taiwan. A discrete time mechanistic model has been used to describe the spread of infection in both this epidemic and the 1967 to 1968 epidemic in the UK. The force of infection and basic reproduction number are estimated and the sensitivity of these results to the distributions of both the latent and infectious periods of the disease is examined. Epidemic simulations were performed to evaluate the disease control policy whereby all herds are slaughtered on the same day as disease confirmation. These simulations showed that implementing this policy could have resulted in a dramatic reduction (of over 60 per cent) in the number of pig farms affected in the Taiwan epidemic. It is thus imperative that the necessary resources are available to implement this policy, should an outbreak occur.

Modelling the potential impact of exotic diseases on regional Australia

Recent international initiatives for disease control suggest that, in the future, the consequences for trade of an exotic disease outbreak may not be as severe as estimated in the past. If zoning were to be accepted by Australia's trading partners, then the major effects may be felt at the regional rather than the national level. A study, using an integrated epidemiological/economic model, was undertaken to compare the impacts of 3 important exotic diseases (foot-and-mouth disease, classical swine fever and sheep pox) in 3 different regions of Australia. The study demonstrated that there are significant differences between the size and effect of different disease outbreaks. Regional factors influence not only the way that the disease will spread and manifest itself, but also the effects on local communities. Foot-and-mouth disease caused more economic losses than sheep pox or classical swine fever. The major determinant of differences in the effects of the diseases between regions was the nature of the regional economies. The less diversified the economy, the greater the effect of an exotic disease outbreak in relation to the size of that economy.

The epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease: Implications for New Zealand

Foot-and-mouth disease is an acute, highly communicable disease affecting cloven-hoofed animals, both domesticated and wild. It may well be the most contagious disease known in the animal kingdom. The key features that contribute to this include its ability to gain entry and initiate infection through a variety of sites, the small infective dose, the short incubation period, the release of virus before the onset of clinical signs, the massive quantities of virus excreted from infected animals, its ability to spread large distances due to airborne dispersal, and the persistence of the virus in the environment. These features, plus the ability of the virus to be disseminated through the movements of animals, animal products, people, and plant and equipment makes the disease very difficult to control. New Zealand has never experienced a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic, and the economic consequences of an outbreak would be disastrous, due to the eradication costs, the loss of productivity and the impact on the export of animals and animal products. The smuggling of meat products, embryos or semen into the country are perceived as the most likely ways in which the disease could be introduced. The New Zealand Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries therefore operates a two-tier system of defense against foot-and-mouth disease. The first tier involves border protection through stringent import controls to prevent the entry of infectious material. If this barrier is breached, an emergency response programme is activated, involving a stamping-out eradication strategy. This paper attempts to draw on overseas historical outbreak experiences and research findings to gain insights into the epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease as it would relate to New Zealand.

Aeromicrobiology--a review

This article reviews the presence of microorganisms in air and their sources, the relation of airborne dust and endotoxin, the sources of atmospheric microbial contamination in food-processing plants, the mechanisms of airborne particle deposition, the importance of airborne microbes, the survival of microorganisms in air, methods of air sampling, airborne microbial populations in food-processing plants, control of airborne microorganisms in food-processing plants, and the general issue of microorganisms in air and their impact on food safety. The purpose was to bring together scattered information about airborne microorganisms and review their importance in food protection and sanitation.