Umbrella species: critique and lessons from East Africa

Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) Indicate Mammalian Abundance Across Broad Spatial Scales

Ongoing ecosystem change and biodiversity decline across the Afrotropics call for tools to monitor the state of biodiversity or ecosystem elements across extensive spatial and temporal scales. We assessed relationships in the co-occurrence patterns between great apes and other medium to large-bodied mammals to evaluate whether ape abundance serves as a proxy for mammal diversity across broad spatial scales. We used camera trap footage recorded at 22 research sites, each known to harbor a population of chimpanzees, and some additionally a population of gorillas, across 12 sub-Saharan African countries. From ~350,000 1-min camera trap videos recorded between 2010 and 2016, we estimated mammalian community metrics, including species richness, Shannon diversity, and mean animal mass. We then fitted Bayesian Regression Models to assess potential relationships between ape detection rates (as proxy for ape abundance) and these metrics. We included site-level protection status, human footprint, and precipitation variance as control variables. We found that relationships between detection rates of great apes and other mammal species, as well as animal mass were largely positive. In contrast, relationships between ape detection rate and mammal species richness were less clear and differed according to site protection and human impact context. We found no clear association between ape detection rate and mammal diversity. Our findings suggest that chimpanzees hold potential as indicators of specific elements of mammalian communities, especially population-level and composition-related characteristics. Declines in chimpanzee populations may indicate associated declines of sympatric medium to large-bodied mammal species and highlight the need for improved conservation interventions.Changes in chimpanzee abundance likely precede extirpation of sympatric mammals.

Beyond overlap: Considering habitat preference and fitness outcomes in the umbrella species concept

Umbrella species and other surrogate-species approaches to conservation provide an appealing framework to extend the reach of conservation efforts beyond single species. For the umbrella species concept to be effective, populations of multiple species of concern must persist in areas protected on behalf of the umbrella species. Most assessments of the concept, however, focus exclusively on geographic overlap among umbrella and background species, and not measures that affect population persistence (e.g., habitat quality or fitness). We quantified the congruence between the habitat preferences and nesting success of a high-profile umbrella species (greater sage-grouse, Centrocercus urophasianus, hereafter "sage-grouse"), and three sympatric species of declining songbirds (Brewer's sparrow Spizella breweri, sage thasher Oreoscoptes montanus, and vesper sparrow Pooecetes gramineus) in central Wyoming, USA during 2012 - 2013. We used machine-learning methods to create data-driven predictions of sage-grouse nest-site selection and nest survival probabilities by modeling field-collected sage-grouse data relative to habitat attributes. We then used field-collected songbird data to assess whether high-quality sites for songbirds aligned with those of sage-grouse. Nest sites selected by songbirds did not coincide with sage-grouse nesting preferences, with the exception that Brewer's sparrows preferred similar nest sites to sage-grouse in 2012. Moreover, the areas that produced higher rates of songbird nest survival were unrelated to those for sage-grouse. Our findings suggest that management actions at local scales that prioritize sage-grouse nesting habitat will not necessarily enhance the reproductive success of sagebrush-associated songbirds. Measures implemented to conserve sage-grouse and other purported umbrella species at broad spatial scales likely overlap the distribution of many species, however, broad-scale overlap may not translate to fine-scale conservation benefit beyond the umbrella species itself. The maintenance of microhabitat heterogeneity important for a diversity of species of concern will be critical for a more-holistic application of the umbrella species concept.

The selection of indicator species of birds and mammals for the monitoring of restoration areas in a highly fragmented forest landscape

Indicator species are frequently used to monitor restoration areas. However, species of conservation concern are usually absent in highly fragmented landscapes, making the selection of indicator species a challenging task. Here, we select indicator species of birds and mammals to be used for the evaluation of restoration sites in a highly fragmented landscape, the Capivara-Taquaruçu Dams region located in north Paraná, Brazil. By using the Index of Biotic Integrity (IBI), we show that the Capivara-Taquaruçu Dams landscape has low IBI values and bird richness when compared with two other landscapes in the north of Paraná. Therefore, we used the Individual Indicate Value to identify birds and mammals associated with forest fragments in the Capivara-Taquaruçu Dams landscape. Six bird and four mammal species were selected as indicators of forest fragments, none of which were of conservation concern. However, monitoring of these species could help evaluate the recovery of restoration sites in the Capivara-Taquaruçu Dams region. Lastly, several species of birds and mammals were frequently recorded in the restoration sites, including vulnerable species such as the lowland tapir (Tapirus terrestris). This is indicative that restoration sites can be important habitats in highly fragmented landscapes despite the loss of biodiversity.

Assessing Global Efforts in the Selection of Vertebrates as Umbrella Species for Conservation

The umbrella-species strategy has been proposed as an attainable tool to achieve multi-species and community conservation with limited investment. There have been many umbrella-related studies since the concept's inception; thus, a summary of global study efforts and recommended umbrella species is important for understanding advances in the field and facilitating conservation applications. Here, we collated 213 recommended umbrella species of terrestrial vertebrates from 242 scientific articles published during 1984-2021 and analyzed their geographic patterns, biological features, and conservation statuses to identify global trends in the selection of umbrella species. We found a considerable geographic bias: most studies and, consequently, recommended umbrella species are from the Northern Hemisphere. There is also a strong taxonomic bias, with grouses (order Galliformes) and large carnivores being the most popular umbrella species and amphibians and reptiles being largely overlooked. In addition, wide-ranging and non-threatened species were frequently recommended as umbrella species. Given the observed biases and trends, we caution that appropriate species need to be chosen for each location, and it is important to confirm that popular, wide-ranging species are effective umbrella species. Moreover, amphibians and reptiles should be investigated for their potential as umbrella species. The umbrella-species strategy has many strengths and, if applied appropriately, may be one of the best options in today's conservation research and funding landscape.

Ecological Drivers of Habitat Use by Meso Mammals in a Miombo Ecosystem in the Issa Valley, Tanzania

Vast stretches of East and Southern Africa are characterized by a mosaic of deciduous woodlands and evergreen riparian forests, commonly referred to as “miombo,” hosting a high diversity of plant and animal life. However, very little is known about the communities of small-sized mammals inhabiting this heterogeneous biome. We here document the diversity and abundance of 0.5–15 kg sized mammals (“meso-mammals”) in a relatively undisturbed miombo mosaic in western Tanzania, using 42 camera traps deployed over a 3 year-period. Despite a relatively low diversity of meso-mammal species (n = 19), these comprised a mixture of savanna and forest species, with the latter by far the most abundant. Our results show that densely forested sites are more intensely utilized than deciduous woodlands, suggesting riparian forest within the miombo matrix might be of key importance to meso-mammal populations. Some species were captured significantly more often in proximity to (and sometimes feeding on) termite mounds (genus Macrotermes), as they are a crucial food resource. There was some evidence of temporal partitioning in activity patterns, suggesting hetero-specific avoidance to reduce foraging competition. We compare our findings to those of other miombo sites in south-central Africa.

Predicting wildlife corridors for multiple species in an East African ungulate community

Wildlife corridors are typically designed for single species, yet holistic conservation approaches require corridors suitable for multiple species. Modelling habitat linkages for wildlife is based on several modelling steps (each involving multiple choices), and in the case of multi-species corridors, an approach to optimize single species corridors to few or a single functional corridor for multiple species. To model robust corridors for multiple species and simultaneously evaluate the impact of methodological choices, we develop a multi-method approach to delineate corridors that effectively capture movement of multiple wildlife species, while limiting the area required. Using wildlife presence data collected along ground-based line transects between Lake Manyara and Tarangire National Parks, Tanzania, we assessed species-habitat association in both ensemble and stacked species distribution frameworks and used these to estimate linearly and non-linearly scaled landscape resistances for seven ungulate species. We evaluated habitat suitability and least-cost and circuit theory-based connectivity models for each species individually and generated a multi-species corridor. Our results revealed that species-habitat relationships and subsequent corridors differed across species, but the pattern of predicted landscape connectivity across the study area was similar for all seven species regardless of method (circuit theory or least-cost) and scaling of the habitat suitability-based cost surface (linear or non-linear). Stacked species distribution models were highly correlated with the seven species for all model outputs (r = 0.79 to 0.97), while having the greatest overlap with the individual species least-cost corridors (linear model: 61.6%; non-linear model: 60.2%). Zebra was the best single-species proxy for landscape connectivity. Overall, we show that multi-species corridors based on stacked species distribution models achieve relatively low cumulative costs for savanna ungulates as compared to their respective single-species corridors. Given the challenges and costs involved in acquiring data and parameterizing corridor models for multiple species, zebra may act as a suitable proxy species for ungulate corridor conservation in this system.

Umbrella effect of monitoring protocols for mammals in the Northeast US

Developing cost-effective monitoring protocols is a priority for wildlife conservation agencies worldwide. In particular, developing protocols that cover a wide range of species is highly desirable. Here we applied the 'umbrella species' concept to the context of ecological monitoring; specifically testing the hypothesis that protocols developed for the American marten would contextually allow detecting occupancy trends for 13 other mammalian species (i.e., an umbrella effect). We conducted a large-scale four-year camera trapping survey across a gradient of forest disturbance in Maine, USA. We sampled 197 sites using a total of 591 cameras and collected over 800,000 photographs to generate detection histories for the most common terrestrial species. By combining multi-season occupancy modelling and power analyses, we estimated the required sampling effort to detect 10%, 25% and 50% declines in the fourteen species. By conducting a spatially explicit comparison of sampling effort, we found evidence that monitoring protocols for American marten would provide an umbrella effect for up to 11 other mammal species. The capacity of the umbrella effect varied among species, with fisher, snowshoe hare, red squirrel, and black bear consistently covered under several scenarios. Our results support the application of the umbrella species concept to monitoring (here defined as 'umbrella monitoring species'), providing empirical evidence for its use by management agencies.

Incorporating Species-Conditional Co-Occurrence When Selecting Indicator Species to Monitor Restoration after Mangrove Removal from the Siangshan Wetland, Taiwan

This paper presents an approach for incorporating species-conditional co-occurrence into models used for the selection of marine indicator species. Mangrove invasion within the Siangshan Wetland in Hsinchu, Taiwan, has changed the original structures and functions of habitats for benthic organisms. The Hsinchu City Government ran a large-scale mangrove removal project from October 2015 to March 2016 to restore the wetland. From October 2015 to September 2016, we investigated the biological effects of mangrove removal on benthic crabs and their adjacent habitats. Density, number of species, Shannon–Weaver index (H′) and Palou’s evenness index (J′) were calculated and compared between mangrove and non-mangrove regions. The results showed that values for these attributes in the non-mangrove regions were higher than those of the mangrove regions. After mangrove removal, species returned to their original habitats and the related density increased significantly. Using conditional co-occurrence algorithms, we identified five indicator species (Mictyris brevidactylus, Macrophthalmus banzai, Uca arcuata, Uca lacteal and Uca borealis) with high co-occurrence probabilities, whose population responses provided direct evidence of the benefits of mangrove removal for wetland restoration. The results indicate that mangrove removal is an appropriate habitat rehabilitation strategy for benthic organisms, and that the chosen indicator species may provide valuable ecological information for coastal managers seeking to control the spread of mangroves.

Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya

Climate change is projected to have significant effects on the distribution of species globally, but research into the implications in parts of Africa has been limited. Using species distribution modelling, this study models climate change-related risks to the terrestrial biodiversity (birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians and plants) of Kenya’s economically-important and ecologically diverse Tana River Basin. Large reductions in species richness are projected with just 2°C warming (relative to preindustrial levels) with birds and plants seeing the greatest impact. Potential climate refugia for biodiversity are identified within the basin, but often overlap with areas already converted to agriculture or set aside for agricultural expansion, and the majority are outside protected areas. Similarly, some protected areas contain no projected refugia at higher levels of global warming, showing they may be insufficient to protect the basin’s biodiversity as climate changes. However, risks to biodiversity are much smaller if the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to ‘well below 2°C’ warming, rather than 2°C only, is met. The potential for refugia for plants and animals decreases strongly with warming. For example, 82% of the basin remaining climatically suitable for at least 75% of the plants currently present at 1.5°C warming, as compared with 23% at 2°C and 3% at 4.5°C. This research provides the first assessment of the combined effects of development plans and climate change on biodiversity of the Tana River Basin, including identifying potential areas for restoration, and contributes to a greater understanding of biodiversity protection and adaptation options in Kenya.

Eciton Army Ants—Umbrella Species for Conservation in Neotropical Forests

Identification of priority areas for conservation is crucial for the maintenance and protection of biodiversity, particularly in tropical forests where biodiversity continues to be lost at alarming rates. Surveys and research on umbrella species can provide efficient and effective approaches to identify potential areas for conservation at small geographical scales. Army ants of the genus Eciton are keystone species in neotropical forests due to their major role as top predators and due to the numerous vertebrate- and invertebrate associated species that depend upon their colonies for survival. These associates range from the iconic army ant-following birds to a wide range of arthropod groups, some of which have evolved intricate morphological, behavioural and/or chemical strategies to conceal their presence and integrate into the colony life. Furthermore, Eciton colonies require large forested areas that support a diverse leaf litter prey community and several field-based and genetic studies have demonstrated the negative consequences of forest fragmentation for the long-term maintenance of these colonies. Therefore, Eciton species will not only act as umbrella for their associates but also for many other species in neotropical forests, in particular for those that require a large extent of forest. This review summarises past and recent accounts of the main taxonomic groups found associated with Eciton colonies, as well research assessing the impact of forest fragmentation on this army ant, to encourage the adoption of Eciton army ants as umbrella species for the identification of priority areas for conservation and assessments of the effect of disturbance in neotropical forests.

The Lisu people's traditional natural philosophy and its potential impact on conservation planning in the Laojun Mountain region, Yunnan Province, China

In this study, we explored a conservation process from an ethnoprimatological perspective for the management of national parks and nature reserves. We accumulated attitude and knowledge data on the traditional culture, religion, and current attitudes to conservation of rural and urban groups of ethnic Lisu people, who live in the village of Liju or have migrated to urban areas, respectively. The data clearly indicated that most of the interviewees had similar feelings and attitudes toward the conservation of Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys (Rhinopithecus bieti) and Laojun Mountain National Park (LMNP), irrespective of whether they live in or have moved away from their home village, or if their educational background differs. Both the rural (96.6%) and urban (100%) interviewees expressed their deep affection for Yunnan snub-nosed monkeys and supported (90.3% and 89.0%, respectively) the seasonal closure of mountainous areas for conservation purposes. The Lisu peoples culture, history, and traditions were evaluated with regards to the developing trend for environmentalism, and their advanced attitudes toward environmental protection and resource utilization exceeded our expectations. The results of this study show huge potential for the optimal mitigation of human-animal conflict in the context of conservation planning not only for LMNP but also for other national parks and nature reserves.

Use of surrogate species to cost-effectively prioritize conservation actions

Conservation efforts often focus on umbrella species whose distributions overlap with many other flora and fauna. However, because biodiversity is affected by different threats that are spatially variable, focusing only on the geographic range overlap of species may not be sufficient in allocating the necessary actions needed to efficiently abate threats. We developed a problem-based method for prioritizing conservation actions for umbrella species that maximizes the total number of flora and fauna benefiting from management while considering threats, actions, and costs. We tested our new method by assessing the performance of the Australian federal government's umbrella prioritization list, which identifies 73 umbrella species as priorities for conservation attention. Our results show that the federal government priority list benefits only 6% of all Australia's threatened terrestrial species. This could be increased to benefit nearly half (or 46%) of all threatened terrestrial species for the same budget of AU$550 million/year if more suitable umbrella species were chosen. This results in a 7-fold increase in management efficiency. We believe nations around the world can markedly improve the selection of prioritized umbrella species for conservation action with this transparent, quantitative, and objective prioritization approach.

Untapped potential: The utility of drylands for testing eco-evolutionary relationships between hosts and parasites

Drylands comprise over 41% of all terrestrial surface area and are home to approximately 35.5% of the world's population; however, both free-living and parasitic fauna of these regions remain relatively understudied. Yet, the very conditions that make these regions challenging to study – extreme environmental conditions and low population density for various organisms – also make them potentially untapped natural laboratories for examining eco-evolutionary relationships between hosts and parasites. Adaptations and ecological patterns illustrated by desert parasite communities can serve as exemplars within the extremes regarding the evolution of virulence, breadth of host spectra, and lifecycle strategies. This review provides relevant examples for each of these three topics using parasites from dryland regions in order to encourage future empirical tests of hypotheses regarding parasite ecology and evolution within dryland ecosystems and stimulate wider investigation into the parasitofauna of arid regions in general. As global climate changes and anthropogenic disturbance increases, desertification is a growing problem which has been labeled as a threat to global health. Thus, deserts not only provide useful natural laboratories in which to study parasite transmission but understanding parasite transmission within these habitats becomes increasingly important as larger, likely highly resource insecure, populations are projected to live on the margins of desert regions in the future.

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Drylands comprise over 41% of Earth's surface but their parasites are understudied.

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Desert parasite communities are exemplars within the extremes of parasite ecology.

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Can test hypotheses of virulence evolution, host spectra, and lifecycle strategies.

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Drylands can provide increasingly important insight into parasite transmission.

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Larger human populations are projected to live in arid regions as climate changes.

Systematic Review of the Roost-Site Characteristics of North American Forest Bats: Implications for Conservation

Continued declines in North American bat populations can be largely attributed to habitat loss, disease, and wind turbines. These declines can be partially mitigated through actions that boost reproductive success; therefore, management aimed at promoting availability of high-quality roosting habitat is an important conservation goal. Following the principles of the umbrella species concept, if co-occurring species share similar roost-tree preferences, then management practices targeting one species may confer conservation benefits to another. We conducted a systematic review of roost-site characteristics of thirteen species inhabiting eastern temperate forests to: (1) synthesize existing knowledge across species; (2) assess niche overlap among co-occurring species; and (3) evaluate the potential for currently protected species to serve as conservation umbrellas. We performed multivariate ordination techniques to group species based on the seven most-reported roost-site characteristics, including tree species, diameter at breast height, tree health, roost type, tree height, canopy closure, and roost height. Species sorted into three roosting guilds: (1) southern wetland inhabitants; (2) foliage specialists; and (3) dead tree generalists. Myotis septentrionalis and Perimyotis subflavus had significant roost-niche overlap with five and four other species respectively, and their existing protections make them suitable umbrellas for other bats in the North American eastern temperate forests.

A landscape-scale assessment of tropical mammals reveals the effects of habitat and anthropogenic disturbance on community occupancy

With biodiversity facing unparalleled threats from anthropogenic disturbance, knowledge on the occurrences of species and communities provides for an effective and fast approach to assess their status and vulnerability. Disturbance is most prominent at the landscape-level, for example through habitat loss from large-scale resource extraction or agriculture. However, addressing species responses to habitat changes at the landscape-scale can be difficult and cost-ineffective, hence studies are mostly conducted at single areas or habitat patches. Moreover, there is a relative lack of studies on communities, as opposed to focal species, despite the former may carry more comprehensive information. Here, we used a multi-region, multi-species hierarchical occupancy model to study a meta-community of mammals detected by camera traps across five distinct areas within a heterogeneous landscape in Tanzania, and aimed to assess responses to human disturbance and environmental variables. Estimated species richness did not vary significantly across different areas, even though these held broadly different habitats. Moreover, we found remarkable consistency in the positive effect of distance to human settlements, a proxy for anthropogenic disturbance, on community occupancy. The positive effect of body size and the positive effect of proximity to rivers on community occupancy were also shared by communities. Results yield conservation relevance because: (1) the among-communities consistency in responses to anthropogenic disturbance, despite the heterogeneity in sampled habitats, indicates that conservation plans designed at the landscape-scale may represent a comprehensive and cost-efficient approach; (2) the consistency in responses to environmental factors suggests that multi-species models are a powerful method to study ecological patterns at the landscape-level.

The role of the spectacled bear (Tremarctos ornatus) as an umbrella species for Andean ecoregions

Context The concept of umbrella species has been proposed as a surrogate for the conservation of a wider range of species and ecosystems. This concept has, however, frequently been questioned by researchers because of the lack of empirical evidence to support it. Aims The aim of the present study was to test the role of the spectacled bear, Tremarctos ornatus (FG Cuvier, 1825), also known as Andean bear, as a putative umbrella species for the 12 Andean ecoregions it inhabits. Methods The number of threatened vertebrates, as well as the total number of vertebrate species (mammals and birds) existing in areas where the spectacled bear is present (distribution range) and absent, were compared within each ecoregion to assess the role of spectacled bear as an umbrella species, using geographical information systems. Key results In absolute terms, the spectacled bear could be considered an umbrella species, because 20.6% of the area of the 12 ecoregions was covered by the bear’s distribution range, and the total numbers of both vertebrate species richness and threatened species were higher in areas where the bears were present than in those where they were absent. However, the results showed that the differences with regard to the number of species in areas in which the bears were present and absent depended on the ecoregion and the targeted taxa. Conclusions These results suggest that the effectiveness of the spectacled bear as an umbrella species is not widespread, because conserving the areas in which bears are present may not always equate to greater conservation benefits (higher species richness) in all the ecoregions for all the taxa. Implications If spectacled bear is used as an umbrella species, it is necessary to consider both the ecoregions and the targeted taxa whose conservation would be improved as a result of the preservation of the spectacled bear’s distribution range.

Identifying Holes in the Greater Sage-Grouse Conservation Umbrella

The umbrella species concept, wherein multiple species are indirectly protected under the umbrella of a reserve created for one, is intended to enhance conservation efficiency. Although appealing in theory and common in practice, empirical tests of the concept have been scarce. We used a real-world, semi-protected reserve established to protect a high-profile umbrella species (greater sage-grouse [Centrocercus urophasianus]) to investigate 2 potential mechanisms underlying the concept's successful application: reserve size and species similarity. We estimated how much habitat protection the established reserve provided to 52 species of conservation concern associated with vegetation communities where greater sage-grouse occur. To illustrate the importance of reserve size, we compared the effectiveness of the established reserve to alternative greater sage-grouse reserves of various sizes and to simulated reserves of equal size but sited with no regard for greater sage-grouse. We further assessed whether key species' traits were associated with different levels of protection under the umbrella reserve. The established umbrella reserve protected 82% of the state's greater sage-grouse population and 0-63% of the habitat of the background species examined. The reserve outperformed equally sized, simulated reserves for only 12 of 52 background species. As expected, larger alternative reserves served as better umbrellas, but regardless of reserve size, not all species received equal protection. The established reserve was most effective at protecting the habitat of species that were most similar to the umbrella species (i.e., avian species, those highly associated with sagebrush plant communities, and those with widespread habitat). In contrast, the habitat of species with restricted distributions, particularly when combined with vegetation associations not closely matching the umbrella species, was not protected as well by the umbrella reserve. Such species require additional, targeted attention to achieve conservation objectives. Successful application of the umbrella species concept requires careful consideration of the characteristics of the umbrella species, the reserve delineated on its behalf, and the similarity of the umbrella species to its purported background species.

AN INVERTEBRATE ECOSYSTEM ENGINEER UNDER THE UMBRELLA OF SAGE-GROUSE CONSERVATION

Conservation practitioners often rely on areas designed to protect species of greatest conservation priority to also conserve co-occurring species (i.e., the umbrella species concept). The extent to which vertebrate species may serve as suitable umbrellas for invertebrate species, however, has rarely been explored. Sage-grouse (Centrocercus spp.) have high conservation priority throughout much of the rangelands of western North America and are considered an umbrella species through which the conservation of entire rangeland ecosystems can be accomplished. Harvester ants are ecosystem engineers and play important roles in the maintenance and function of rangeland ecosystems. We compared indices of the abundance of western harvester ants (Pogonomyrmex occidentalis) and Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) at 72 sites in central Wyoming, USA in 2012. The abundance of harvester ant mounds was best predicted by a regression model that included a combination of local habitat characteristics and the abundance of sage-grouse. When controlling for habitat-related factors, areas with higher abundances of sage-grouse pellets (an index of sage-grouse abundance and/or habitat use) had higher abundances of ant mounds than areas with lower abundances of sage-grouse pellets. The causal mechanism underlying this positive relationship between sage-grouse and ant mound abundance at the fine scale could be indirect (e.g., both species prefer similar environmental conditions) or direct (e.g., sage-grouse prefer areas with a high abundance of ant mounds because ants are an important prey item during certain life stages). We observed no relationship between a broad-scale index of breeding sage-grouse density and the abundance of ant mounds. We suspect that consideration of the non-breeding habitat of sage-grouse and finer-scale measures of sage-grouse abundance are critical to the utility of sage-grouse as an umbrella species for the conservation of harvester ants and their important role in rangeland ecosystems.

Incorporating abundance information and guiding variable selection for climate-based ensemble forecasting of species' distributional shifts

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on species’ distributions worldwide. Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To estimate species’ distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts using four global circulation models, four representative concentration pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of temperate North American quail. The Gambel’s quail (Callipepla gambelii) was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to influence species’ distributions. Special attention should be given to selecting variables for ENMs, and tests of model performance should be used to validate the choice of variables.

Conservation of snow leopards: spill-over benefits for other carnivores?

In high-altitude settings of Central Asia the Endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia has been recognized as a potential umbrella species. As a first step in assessing the potential benefits of snow leopard conservation for other carnivores, we sought a better understanding of the presence of other carnivores in areas occupied by snow leopards in China's Qilianshan National Nature Reserve. We used camera-trap and sign surveys to examine whether other carnivores were using the same travel routes as snow leopards at two spatial scales. We also considered temporal interactions between species. Our results confirm that other carnivores, including the red fox Vulpes vulpes, grey wolf Canis lupus, Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx and dhole Cuon alpinus, occur along snow leopard travel routes, albeit with low detection rates. Even at the smaller scale of our camera trap survey all five carnivores (snow leopard, lynx, wolf, red fox and dhole) were observed. Kernel density estimates suggested a high degree of temporal overlap between the snow leopard and the fox, and the snow leopard and the lynx, as indicated by high overlap coefficient estimates. There is an opportunity to consider protective measures at the local scale that would benefit various species simultaneously. However, it should also be recognized that snow leopard conservation efforts could exacerbate human–wildlife conflicts through their protective effect on other carnivore species.

Evaluating multispecies landscape connectivity in a threatened tropical mammal community

Habitat corridors are important tools for maintaining connectivity in increasingly fragmented landscapes, but generally they have been considered in single-species approaches. Corridors intended to facilitate the movement of multiple species could increase persistence of entire communities, but at the likely cost of being less efficient for any given species than a corridor intended specifically for that species. There have been few tests of the trade-offs between single- and multispecies corridor approaches. We assessed single-species and multispecies habitat corridors for 5 threatened mammal species in tropical forests of Borneo. We generated maps of the cost of movement across the landscape for each species based on the species' local abundance as estimated through hierarchical modeling of camera-trap data with biophysical and anthropogenic covariates. Elevation influenced local abundance of banded civets (Hemigalus derbyanus) and sun bears (Helarctos malayanus). Increased road density was associated with lower local abundance of Sunda clouded leopards (Neofelis diardi) and higher local abundance of sambar deer (Rusa unicolor). Pig-tailed macaque (Macaca nemestrina) local abundance was lower in recently logged areas. An all-species-combined connectivity scenario with least-cost paths and 1 km buffers generated total movement costs that were 27% and 23% higher for banded civets and clouded leopards, respectively, than the connectivity scenarios for those species individually. A carnivore multispecies connectivity scenario, however, increased movement cost by 2% for banded civets and clouded leopards. Likewise, an herbivore multispecies scenario provided more effective connectivity than the all-species-combined scenario for sambar and macaques. We suggest that multispecies habitat connectivity plans be tailored to groups of ecologically similar, disturbance-sensitive species to maximize their effectiveness.

Vigorous dynamics underlie a stable population of the endangered snow leopard Panthera uncia in Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia

Population monitoring programmes and estimation of vital rates are key to understanding the mechanisms of population growth, decline or stability, and are important for effective conservation action. We report, for the first time, the population trends and vital rates of the endangered snow leopard based on camera trapping over four years in the Tost Mountains, South Gobi, Mongolia. We used robust design multi-season mark-recapture analysis to estimate the trends in abundance, sex ratio, survival probability and the probability of temporary emigration and immigration for adult and young snow leopards. The snow leopard population remained constant over most of the study period, with no apparent growth (λ = 1.08+-0.25). Comparison of model results with the "known population" of radio-collared snow leopards suggested high accuracy in our estimates. Although seemingly stable, vigorous underlying dynamics were evident in this population, with the adult sex ratio shifting from being male-biased to female-biased (1.67 to 0.38 males per female) during the study. Adult survival probability was 0.82 (SE+-0.08) and that of young was 0.83 (SE+-0.15) and 0.77 (SE +-0.2) respectively, before and after the age of 2 years. Young snow leopards showed a high probability of temporary emigration and immigration (0.6, SE +-0.19 and 0.68, SE +-0.32 before and after the age of 2 years) though not the adults (0.02 SE+-0.07). While the current female-bias in the population and the number of cubs born each year seemingly render the study population safe, the vigorous dynamics suggests that the situation can change quickly. The reduction in the proportion of male snow leopards may be indicative of continuing anthropogenic pressures. Our work reiterates the importance of monitoring both the abundance and population dynamics of species for effective conservation.

A tool for protected area management: multivariate control charts 'cope' with rare variable communities

Performance assessment, impact detection, and the assessment of regulatory compliance are common scientific problems for the management of protected areas. Some habitats in protected areas, however, are rare and/or variable and are not often selected for study by ecologists because they preclude comparison with controls and high community variability makes meaningful change detection difficult. Shallow coastal saline lagoons are habitats that experience comparatively high levels of stress due to high physical variability. Lagoons are rare, declining habitats found in coastal regions throughout Europe (and elsewhere) where they are identified as one of the habitats most in need of protected area management. The infauna in the sediments of 25 lagoons were sampled. Temporal and spatial variation in three of these [protected] lagoons was investigated further over 5 years. In a multivariate analysis of community structure similarities were found between some lagoons, but in other cases communities were unique or specific to only two sites. The protected lagoons with these unique/specific communities showed significant temporal and spatial variation, yet none of the changes observed were attributed to human impacts and were interpreted as inherent variability. Multivariate control charts can operate without experimental controls and were used to assess community changes within the context of 'normal' lagoon variability. The aim of control chart analysis is to characterize background variability in a parameter and identify when a new observation deviates more than expected. In only 1 year was variability more than expected and corresponded with the coldest December in over 100 years. Multivariate control charts are likely to have wide application in the management of protected areas and other natural systems where variability and/or rarity preclude conventional analytical and experimental approaches but where assessments of condition, impact or regulatory compliance are nonetheless required.

Science-driven management of protected areas: a Philippine case study

The lack of scientific baseline information hinders appropriate design and management of protected areas. To illustrate the value of science to management, we consider five scenarios for the 202.0 km² Puerto Princesa Subterranean River National Park, Philippines: (1) closure to human activities, (2) and (3) two levels of increase in unplanned human activities, (4) creation of a forest corridor and (5) additional allocation of land for permanent or shifting agriculture. We then use habitat-specific bird density estimates to simulate the net effect of each scenario on 18 focal bird populations. Closure has significant benefits-populations of five species are predicted to increase by >50 % and nine by >25 %, but two secondary forest flycatchers, including the endemic and 'Vulnerable' Palawan flycatcher, decline dramatically, while the creation of a 4.0 km² forest corridor yields average increases across species of 2 ± 4 % (SD). In contrast, heavier unplanned park usage produces declines in all but a few species, while the negative effects of an extra 2.0 km² of shifting cultivation are 3-5 times higher than for a similar area of permanent agriculture and affect species whose densities are highest in primary habitats. Relatively small changes within the park, especially those associated with agricultural expansion, has serious predicted implications for local bird populations. Our models do not take into account the full complexities of bird ecology at a site, but they do provide park managers with an evidence base from which to make better decisions relating to biodiversity conservation obligations which their parks are intended to meet.

Assessing the value of the umbrella-species concept for conservation planning with meta-analysis

The umbrella-species concept, which suggests that conservation strategies designed for one species may benefit co-occurring species, has been promoted as a framework for conservation planning. Nevertheless, there has been considerable variation in the outcome of empirical tests of this concept that has led researchers to question its value, so we used data from 15 published studies in a meta-analysis to evaluate whether conservation of putative umbrella species also conserves co-occurring species. We tested the effectiveness of putative umbrella species categorized by taxonomic group, taxonomic similarity to co-occurring species, body size, generality of resource use, and trophic level to evaluate criteria proposed to guide the selection of umbrella species. We compared species richness and number of individuals (by species and higher taxonomic group) between sites with and without putative umbrella species to test whether more co-occurring species were present in greater abundances when the area or resource needs of umbrella species were met. Species richness and abundance of co-occurring species were consistently higher in sites where umbrella species were present than where they were not and for conservation schemes with avian than with mammalian umbrella species. There were no differences in species richness or species abundance with resource generalist or specialist umbrella species or based on taxonomic similarity of umbrella and co-occurring species. Taxonomic group abundance was higher in across-taxonomic umbrella species schemes than when umbrella species were of the same taxon as co-occurring species. Co-occurring species had similar, or higher, species richness with small-bodied umbrella species relative to larger-bodied umbrella species. The only significant difference among umbrella species categorized by trophic level was that species richness was higher with omnivorous than it was with carnivorous avian umbrella species. Our results suggest there is merit to the umbrella-species concept for conservation, but they do not support the use of the criteria we used to identify umbrella species.