Multilevel cycle of anthropogenic copper

Deep-learning-assisted theoretical insights into the compatibility of environment friendly insulation medium with metal surface of power equipment

Exploring a new generation of eco-friendly gas insulation medium to replace greenhouse gas sulphur hexafluoride (SF₆) in power industry is significant for reducing the greenhouse effect and building a low-carbon environment. The gas-solid compatibility of insulation gas with various electrical equipment is also of significance before practical applications. Herein, take a promising SF₆ replacing gas trifluoromethyl sulfonyl fluoride (CF₃SO₂F) for example, one strategy to theoretically evaluate the gas-solid compatibility between insulation gas and the typical solid surfaces of common equipment was raised. Firstly, the active site where the CF₃SO₂F molecule is prone to interact with other compounds was identified. Secondly, the interaction strength and charge transfer between CF₃SO₂F and four typical solid surfaces of equipment were studied by first-principles calculations and further analysis was conducted, with SF₆ as the control group. Then, the dynamic compatibility of CF₃SO₂F with solid surfaces was investigated by large-scale molecular dynamics simulations with the aid of deep learning. The results indicate that CF₃SO₂F has excellent compatibility similar to SF₆, especially in the equipment whose contact surface is Cu, CuO, and Al₂O₃ due to their similar outermost orbital electronic structures. Besides, the dynamic compatibility with pure Al surfaces is poor. Finally, preliminary experimental verifications indicate the validity of the strategy.

Win-Win: Anthropogenic circularity for metal criticality and carbon neutrality

Resource depletion and environmental degradation have fueled a burgeoning discipline of anthropogenic circularity since the 2010s. It generally consists of waste reuse, remanufacturing, recycling, and recovery. Circular economy and "zero-waste" cities are sweeping the globe in their current practices to address the world's grand concerns linked to resources, the environment, and industry. Meanwhile, metal criticality and carbon neutrality, which have become increasingly popular in recent years, denote the material's feature and state, respectively. The goal of this article is to determine how circularity, criticality, and neutrality are related. Upscale anthropogenic circularity has the potential to expand the metal supply and, as a result, reduce metal criticality. China barely accomplished 15 % of its potential emission reduction by recycling iron, copper, and aluminum. Anthropogenic circularity has a lot of room to achieve a win-win objective, which is to reduce metal criticality while also achieving carbon neutrality in a near closed-loop cycle. Major barriers or challenges for conducting anthropogenic circularity are deriving from the inadequacy of life-cycle insight governance and the emergence of anthropogenic circularity discipline. Material flow analysis and life cycle assessment are the central methodologies to identify the hidden problems. Mineral processing and smelting, as well as end-of-life management, are indicated as critical priority areas for enhancing anthropogenic circularity.

ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL

Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at 10.1007/s11783-023-1623-2 and is accessible for authorized users.

Assessing China's potential for reducing primary copper demand and associated environmental impacts in the context of energy transition and "Zero waste" policies

To conserve resources and enhance the environmental performance, China has launched the "Zero waste" concept, focused on reutilization of solid waste and recovery of materials, including copper. Although several studies have assessed the copper demand and recycling, there is a lack of understanding on how different waste management options would potentially reduce primary copper demand and associated environmental impacts in China in the context of energy transition. This study addresses this gap in view of a transition to low-carbon energy system and the optimization of copper waste management combining MFA and LCA approaches. Six types of waste streams (C&DW, ELV, WEEE, IEW, MSW, ICW) are investigated in relation to various "Zero waste" strategies including reduction, reuse (repair, remanufacturing or refurbishment), recycling and transition from informal to formal waste management. Under present Chinese policies, reuse and recycling of copper containing products will lead to a somewhat lower dependency on primary copper in 2100 (11187Gg), as well as lower total GHG emissions (64869 Gg CO2-eq.) and cumulative energy demand (1.18x10^12 MJ). Maximizing such "Zero waste" options may lead to a further reduction, resulting in 65% potential reduction of primary copper demand, around 55% potential reduction of total GHG emissions and total cumulative energy demand in 2100. Several policy actions are proposed to provide insights into future waste management in China as well as some of the challenges involved.

Forecast of the U.S. Copper Demand: a Framework Based on Scenario Analysis and Stock Dynamics

In a world of finite metallic minerals, demand forecasting is crucial for managing the stocks and flows of these critical resources. Previous studies have projected copper supply and demand at the global level and the regional level of EU and China. However, no comprehensive study exists for the U.S., which has displayed unique copper consumption and dematerialization trends. In this study, we adapted the stock dynamics approach to forecast the U.S. copper in-use stock (IUS), consumption, and end-of-life (EOL) flows from 2016 to 2070 under various U.S.-specific scenarios. Assuming different socio-technological development trajectories, our model results are consistent with a stabilization range of 215-260 kg/person for the IUS. This is projected along with steady growth in the annual copper consumption and EOL copper generation driven mainly by the growing U.S. population. This stabilization trend of per capita IUS indicates that future copper consumption will largely recuperate IUS losses, allowing 34-39% of future demand to be met potentially by recycling 43% of domestic EOL copper. Despite the recent trends of "dematerialization", adaptive policies still need to be designed for enhancing the EOL recovery, especially in light of a potential transitioning to a "green technology" future with increased electrification dictating higher copper demand.

Monitoring of metal phytofiltration performance by micro-XRF methodology

In this work, micro-XRF was considered as a possible technique for monitoring the rate of incorporation of Cu and Zn into aquatic plants of a laboratory-scale phytofiltration system. This system employed Salvinia biloba Raddi under controlled conditions of light and nutrients. This aquatic plant is being considered as an efficient hyperaccumulator of Cu and Zn and is widely spread in South American lakes and rivers. One set of plants was exposed to 40 ppm w/w of Cu and another to 40 ppm w/w of Zn. The analytical procedure was based on the periodic in vivo quantitative analysis of Cu and Zn at selected points in the plants using micro-XRF. The accuracy of this quantification was effectively improved with the assistance of the Monte Carlo XMI-MSIM simulation code. In order to establish the input parameters of this software, careful measurements of the experimental parameters necessary for the correct modeling of the micro-XRF spectrometer were performed. After that, specially manufactured standards made of tissue equivalent material were employed to validate the configuration of the simulation code and input parameters. It was fulfilled by the comparison of measured and simulated micro-XRF spectra of these standards. Once the configuration code and input parameters were verified, two strategies were considered for the application of Monte Carlo simulation for elemental quantification in plants: an iterative process and inverse method established with external virtual standards. Benefits and drawbacks of both approaches to improve the monitoring of phytofiltration systems were carefully discussed.

Material Flow Analysis from Origin to Evolution

Material flow analysis (MFA), a central methodology of industrial ecology, quantifies the ways in which the materials that enable modern society are used, reused, and lost. Sankey diagrams, termed the "visible language of industrial ecology", are often employed to present MFA results. This Perspective assesses the history and current status of MFA, reviews the development of the methodology, presents current examples of metal, polymer, and fiber MFAs, and demonstrates that MFAs have been responsible for creating related industrial ecology specialties and stimulating connections between industrial ecology and a variety of engineering and social science fields. MFA approaches are now being linked with environmental input-output assessment, scenario development, and life cycle assessment, and these increasingly comprehensive assessments promise to be central tools for sustainable development and circular economy studies in the future. Current shortcomings and promising innovations are also presented, as are the implications of MFA results for corporate and national policy.

Characterizing copper flows in international trade of China, 1975-2015

Since the economic reform, China has actively participated in the global market with rapid industrialization and gradually dominated the utilization and consumption of some critical materials, one of which is copper. China has reigned the global anthropogenic cycle of copper since 2004. We explore copper flows along with the international trade of China during 1975-2015, through life cycle lens, from ore to final products. Our main finding is that China has become more active in the copper-related trade, indicated by its great increase in trade volume and the number of trade partners. The physical volume of copper flows through trade increased over 119 times between 1975 and 2015, mainly because of more imported raw materials of copper and exported copper products. Generally, China is a net importer of copper, with increasing import dependence through the study period, whereas the degree of dependence slightly decreased from 2010 to 2015. The indicator of Export Support Rate took a decreasing percentage, which has fallen about 35% since 2010. It suggests China's changing position in the global resource and manufacturing market. In terms of trade price of different copper products, the price of imported copper concentrate was noticeably higher than that of exported one, revealing the poor copper resource endowment of China; while the different trend of copper semis in recent years signifies that China is in urgent need to improve its capability of producing high value-added semis. From international trade perspective, the copper resource of China presented stable supply as well as demand. The One Belt One Road strategy proposed by the state will further expand both the resource and market of copper.

Assessment of the Secondary Copper Reserves of Nations

The sustainable use of metals demands consideration not only of primary metals in the natural environment but also of secondary metals in society as alternative resources. This study applied our proposed classification framework of secondary resources to copper (1) to investigate the applicability of the framework and (2) to assess the secondary copper reserves and resources of selected countries. To estimate secondary copper reserves, we introduced the variable "secondary reserve ratio": the fraction of in-use copper stocks that is technically and economically recoverable. Our estimates showed that the United States and China have secondary copper reserves of 44 and 33 Mt, respectively, and showed that global secondary copper reserves are about 30% of global primary reserves. The application of the classification framework showed that considerable amounts of secondary copper resources are in landfills, which are potential targets of future extraction of secondary copper through landfill mining. Overall, the classification framework provides a better understanding of the current size of available secondary resources and waste deposits. It also highlights the need for integrated management of primary and secondary resources.

The Copper Balance of Cities: Exploratory Insights into a European and an Asian City

Material management faces a dual challenge: on the one hand satisfying large and increasing demands for goods and on the other hand accommodating wastes and emissions in sinks. Hence, the characterization of material flows and stocks is relevant for both improving resource efficiency and environmental protection. This article focuses on the urban scale, a dimension rarely investigated in past metal flow studies. We compare the copper (Cu) metabolism of two cities in different economic states, namely, Vienna (Europe) and Taipei (Asia). Substance flow analysis is used to calculate urban Cu balances in a comprehensive and transparent form. The main difference between Cu in the two cities appears to be the stock: Vienna seems close to saturation with 180 kilograms per capita (kg/cap) and a growth rate of 2% per year. In contrast, the Taipei stock of 30 kg/cap grows rapidly by 26% per year. Even though most Cu is recycled in both cities, bottom ash from municipal solid waste incineration represents an unused Cu potential accounting for 1% to 5% of annual demand. Nonpoint emissions are predominant; up to 50% of the loadings into the sewer system are from nonpoint sources. The results of this research are instrumental for the design of the Cu metabolism in each city. The outcomes serve as a base for identification and recovery of recyclables as well as for directing nonrecyclables to appropriate sinks, avoiding sensitive environmental pathways. The methodology applied is well suited for city benchmarking if sufficient data are available.

Industrial metabolism of chlorine: a case study of a chlor-alkali industrial chain

Substance flow analysis (SFA) is applied to a case study of chlorine metabolism in a chlor-alkali industrial chain. A chain-level SFA model is constructed, and eight indices are proposed to analyze and evaluate the metabolic status of elemental chlorine. The primary objectives of this study are to identify low-efficiency links in production processes and to find ways to improve the operational performance of the industrial chain. Five-year in-depth data collection and analysis revealed that system production efficiency and source efficiency continued increasing since 2008, i.e., when the chain was first formed, at average annual growth rates of 21.01 % and 1.01 %, respectively. In 2011, 64.15 % of the total chlorine input was transformed into final products. That is, as high as 98.50 % of the chlorine inputs were utilized when other by-products were counted. Chlorine loss occurred mostly in the form of chloride ions in wastewater, and the system loss rate was 0.54 %. The metabolic efficiency of chlorine in this case was high, and the chain system had minimal impact on the environment. However, from the perspectives of processing depth and economic output, the case study of a chlor-alkali industrial chain still requires expansion.

Analysis of copper flows in China from 1975 to 2010

By applying substance flow analysis (SFA), the paper attempts to illustrate how copper utilization pattern has changed in the anthroposphere of China from 1975 to 2010. An analytical framework is firstly established and the detailed copper cycles of the specific years 1975, 1985, 1995, 2005 and 2010 are then characterized. Major conclusions include the following: (1) Chinese copper industry has made significant progress driven by large domestic copper demand since 1970s, especially after 1990s. Also the structure of copper industry has shifted from a basic industry to a processing industry. The share of secondary copper production in total refined copper has risen from 20% in 1975 to 38% in 2010; (2) the Chinese society has experienced a rapid copper accumulation since 1990s. The annual input flow to use stage jumped from only 334 Gg (that is 0.36 kg per capita copper consumption) in 1975 to 7,916 Gg (5.90 kg per capita) in 2010; (3) a large amount of copper has to be imported to meet the huge demand, mainly involving in copper concentrate, refined copper and copper scrap. And the NIR (Net Import Ratio) of the three was 53.0%, 38.7% and 63.0% in 2010, respectively; (4) domestically produced copper scrap increased from 74.5 Gg in 1975 to 711.2 Gg in 2010. Comparing it with import scrap and domestic new scrap we found that at current stage the in-use stock is still too small to generate high quantities of copper scrap for domestic secondary copper production. (5) Major copper losses occurred through copper Mining, Refining and WM&R, with the Mining exhibited the lowest copper utilization efficiency (CUE) among the three processes, and may have the great potential for increasing copper utilization rate in China.

Effect of copper on pro- and antioxidative reactions in radish (Raphanus sativus L.) in vitro and in vivo

The generation of superoxide radicals, lipid peroxidation (as measured by malone dialdehyde formation) and the activity of selected antioxidant enzymes (superoxide dismutase, catalase, ascorbate peroxidase) were assessed in radish (Raphanus sativus L.), in response to elevated concentrations of copper ions in the culture medium in vitro and in vivo. Experiments were performed on 7-day-old seedlings and 5-week-old calluses grown on media supplemented with CuSO4 in concentrations of 10, 100 and 1000μМ. The exposure to elevated Cu concentrations in the medium significantly reduced both callogenesis and the proliferation of radish calluses in vitro. Cu treatment resulted in the increased generation of the superoxide radical (O2(-)) in radish seedlings and calluses indicating the occurrence of oxidative stress in radish cells, whereas the level of lipid peroxidation (LPO) remained unchanged. Both in calluses and in radish seedlings in vivo, the relative level of oxidative stress was maximal at micromolar Cu concentrations and became attenuated with increasing Cu concentrations. Stronger oxidative stress occurred in the radish seedlings in vivo, compared with radish calluses in vitro. The observed lower sensitivity of calluses to Cu-induced oxidative stress and their ability to proliferate upon exposure to Cu concentrations of up to 1000μМ demonstrate the potential of in vitro cell-selection to obtain metal-tolerant radish plant lines.

Mapping the global journey of anthropogenic aluminum: a trade-linked multilevel material flow analysis

Material cycles have become increasingly coupled and interconnected in a globalizing era. While material flow analysis (MFA) has been widely used to characterize stocks and flows along technological life cycle within a specific geographical area, trade networks among individual cycles have remained largely unexplored. Here we developed a trade-linked multilevel MFA model to map the contemporary global journey of anthropogenic aluminum. We demonstrate that the anthropogenic aluminum cycle depends substantially on international trade of aluminum in all forms and becomes highly interconnected in nature. While the Southern hemisphere is the main primary resource supplier, aluminum production and consumption concentrate in the Northern hemisphere, where we also find the largest potential for recycling. The more developed countries tend to have a substantial and increasing presence throughout the stages after bauxite refining and possess highly consumption-based cycles, thus maintaining advantages both economically and environmentally. A small group of countries plays a key role in the global redistribution of aluminum and in the connectivity of the network, which may render some countries vulnerable to supply disruption. The model provides potential insights to inform government and industry policies in resource criticality, supply chain security, value chain management, and cross-boundary environmental impacts mitigation.

Cross-border impacts of the restriction of hazardous substances: a perspective based on Japanese solders

Despite the relevance of the global economy, Regulatory Impact Assessments of the restriction of hazardous substances (RoHS) in the European Union (EU) are based only on domestic impacts. This paper explores the cross-border environmental impacts of the RoHS by focusing on the shifts to lead-free solders in Japan, which exports many electronics to the EU. The regulatory impacts are quantified by integrating a material flow analysis for metals constituting a solder with a scenario analysis with and without the RoHS. The results indicate that the EU regulation, the RoHS, has triggered shifts in Japan to lead-free solders, not only for electronics subject to this regulation, but for other products as well. We also find that the RoHS leads to a slow reduction in environmental emissions of the target, lead, but results in a rapid increase in the use of tin and silver in lead-free solders. This indicates the importance of assessing potential alternative substances, the use of which may increase as a result of adhering to the RoHS. The latter constitutes a negative impact because of recent concerns regarding resource criticality.

Dynamic analysis of global copper flows. Global stocks, postconsumer material flows, recycling indicators, and uncertainty evaluation

We present a dynamic model of global copper stocks and flows which allows a detailed analysis of recycling efficiencies, copper stocks in use, and dissipated and landfilled copper. The model is based on historical mining and refined copper production data (1910-2010) enhanced by a unique data set of recent global semifinished goods production and copper end-use sectors provided by the copper industry. To enable the consistency of the simulated copper life cycle in terms of a closed mass balance, particularly the matching of recycled metal flows to reported historical annual production data, a method was developed to estimate the yearly global collection rates of end-of-life (postconsumer) scrap. Based on this method, we provide estimates of 8 different recycling indicators over time. The main indicator for the efficiency of global copper recycling from end-of-life (EoL) scrap--the EoL recycling rate--was estimated to be 45% on average, ± 5% (one standard deviation) due to uncertainty and variability over time in the period 2000-2010. As uncertainties of specific input data--mainly concerning assumptions on end-use lifetimes and their distribution--are high, a sensitivity analysis with regard to the effect of uncertainties in the input data on the calculated recycling indicators was performed. The sensitivity analysis included a stochastic (Monte Carlo) uncertainty evaluation with 10(5) simulation runs.

Ore grade decrease as life cycle impact indicator for metal scarcity: the case of copper

In the life cycle assessment (LCA) of products, the increasing scarcity of metal resources is currently addressed in a preliminary way. Here, we propose a new method on the basis of global ore grade information to assess the importance of the extraction of metal resources in the life cycle of products. It is shown how characterization factors, reflecting the decrease in ore grade due to an increase in metal extraction, can be derived from cumulative ore grade-tonnage relationships. CFs were derived for three different types of copper deposits (porphyry, sediment-hosted, and volcanogenic massive sulfide). We tested the influence of the CF model (marginal vs average), mathematical distribution (loglogistic vs loglinear), and reserve estimate (ultimate reserve vs reserve base). For the marginal CFs, the statistical distribution choice and the estimate of the copper reserves introduce a difference of a factor of 1.0-5.0 and a factor of 1.2-1.7, respectively. For the average CFs, the differences are larger for these two choices, i.e. respectively a factor of 5.7-43 and a factor of 2.1-3.8. Comparing the marginal CFs with the average CFs, the differences are higher (a factor 1.7-94). This paper demonstrates that cumulative grade-tonnage relationships for metal extraction can be used in LCA to assess the relative importance of metal extractions.

Assessment of the effects of the Japanese shift to lead-free solders and its impact on material substitution and environmental emissions by a dynamic material flow analysis

Lead-free electronics has been extensively studied, whereas their adoption by society and their impact on material substitution and environmental emissions are not well understood. Through a material flow analysis (MFA), this paper explores the life cycle flows for solder-containing metals in Japan, which leads the world in the shift to lead-free solders in electronics. The results indicate that the shift has been progressing rapidly for a decade, and that substitutes for lead in solders, which include silver and copper, are still in the early life cycle stages. The results also show, however, that such substitution slows down during the late life cycle stages owing to long electronic product lifespans. This deceleration of material substitution in the solder life cycle may not only preclude a reduction in lead emissions to air but also accelerate an increase in silver emissions to air and water. As an effective measure against ongoing lead emissions, our scenario analysis suggests an aggressive recycling program for printed circuit boards that utilizes an existing recycling scheme.

Anthropogenic cycles of the elements: a critical review

A cycle is the quantitative characterization of the flows of a specific material into, within, and from a given system. An anthropogenic elemental cycle can be static (for a point in time) or dynamic (over a time interval). The about 350 publications collected for this review contain a total of 1074 individual cycle determinations, 989 static and 85 dynamic, for 59 elements; more than 90% of the publications have appeared since 2000. The cycles are of varying quality and completeness, with about 80% at country- or territory-level, addressing 45 elements, and 5% at global-level, addressing 30 elements. Despite their limitations, cycles have often been successful in revealing otherwise unknown information. Most of the elements for which no cycles exist are radioactively unstable or are used rarely and in small amounts. For a variety of reasons, the anthropogenic cycles of only perhaps a dozen elements are well characterized. For all the others, with cycles limited or nonexistent, our knowledge of types of uses, lifetimes in those uses, international trade, losses to the environment, and rates of recycling is quite limited, thereby making attempts to evaluate resource sustainability particularly problematic.

Metal lost and found: dissipative uses and releases of copper in the United States 1975-2000

Metals are used in a variety of ways, many of which lead to dissipative releases to the environment. Such releases are relevant from both a resource use and an environmental impact perspective. We present a historical analysis of copper dissipative releases in the United States from 1975 to 2000. We situate all dissipative releases in copper's life cycle and introduce a conceptual framework by which copper dissipative releases may be categorized in terms of intentionality of use and release. We interpret our results in the context of larger trends in production and consumption and government policies that have served as drivers of intentional copper releases from the relevant sources. Intentional copper releases are found to be both significant in quantity and highly variable. In 1975, for example, the largest source of intentional releases was from the application of copper-based pesticides, and this decreased more than 50% over the next 25 years; all other sources of intentional releases increased during that period. Overall, intentional copper releases decreased by approximately 15% from 1975 to 2000. Intentional uses that are unintentionally released such as copper from roofing, increased by the same percentage. Trace contaminant sources such as fossil fuel combustion, i.e., sources where both the use and the release are unintended, increased by nearly 50%. Intentional dissipative uses are equivalent to 60% of unintentional copper dissipative releases and more than five times that from trace sources. Dissipative copper releases are revealed to be modest when compared to bulk copper flows in the economy, and we introduce a metric, the dissipation index, which may be considered an economy-wide measure of resource efficiency for a particular substance. We assess the importance of dissipative releases in the calculation of recycling rates, concluding that the inclusion of dissipation in recycling rate calculations has a small, but discernible, influence, and should be included in such calculations.

Tracking the metal of the goblins: cobalt's cycle of use

Cobalt is a vital element in many technological applications, which, together with its increasing end-use in batteries, makes it important to quantify its cycle of use. We have done so for the planet as a whole and for the three principal cobalt-using countries - China, Japan, and the United States - for 2005. Together, China, Japan, and the United States accounted for approximately 65% of the cobalt fabricated and manufactured into end-use products (a total of 37 Gg Co). A time residence model allowed calculations of in-use stock accumulation and recycled and landfilled flows. China had the largest accumulation of in-use stock at some 4.3 Gg Co, over half of which was comprised of consumer battery stock. More than half of the stock accumulation in the United States was estimated to be in aircraft, rocket, and gas turbine engines, with a total in-use stock accumulation of approximately 3 Gg Co. The largest amounts of cobalt landfilled in China, the United States, and the planet were from the "chemical and other uses" category, and Japan's largest landfilled flow was in consumer batteries.

Metal spectra as indicators of development

We have assembled extensive information on the cycles of seven industrial metals in 49 countries, territories, or groups of countries, drawn from a database of some 200,000 material flows, and have devised analytical approaches to treat the suite of metals as composing an approach to a national "materials metabolism." We demonstrate that in some of the more developed countries, per capita metal use is more than 10 times the global average. Additionally, countries that use more than the per capita world average of any metal do so for all metals, and vice versa, and countries that are above global average rates of use are very likely to be above global average rates at all stages of metal life cycles from fabrication onward. We show that all countries are strongly dependent on international trade to supply the spectrum of nonrenewable resources that modern technology requires, regardless of their level of development. We also find that the rate of use of the spectrum of metals stock is highly correlated to per capita gross domestic product, as well as to the Human Development Index and the Global Competitiveness Innovation Index. The implication is that as wealth and technology increase in developing countries, strong demand will be created not for a few key resources, but across the entire spectrum of the industrial metals. Long-term metal demand can be estimated given gross domestic product projections; the results suggest overall metal flow into use in 2050 of 5-10 times today's level should supplies permit.

Anthropogenic phosphorus flow analysis of Hefei City, China

The substance flow analysis (SFA) method was employed to examine phosphorus flow and its connection to water pollution in the city of Hefei, China, in 2008. As human activity is the driving force of phosphorus flux from the environment to the economy, the study provides a conceptual framework for analyzing an anthropogenic phosphorus cycle that includes four stages: extraction, fabrication and manufacturing, use, and waste management. Estimates of phosphorus flow were based on existing data as well as field research, expert advice, local accounting systems, and literature. The total phosphorus input into Hefei in 2008 reached 7810 tons, mainly as phosphate ore, chemical fertilizer, pesticides, crops and animal products. Approximately 33% of the total phosphorus input left the area, and nearly 20% of that amount was discharged as waste to surface water. Effluent containing excessive fertilizer from farming operations plays an important role in phosphorus overloads onto surface water; the other major emission source is sewage discharge. We also provide suggestions for reducing phosphorus emissions, for example reducing fertilizer use, recycling farming residues, and changing human consumption patterns.

Outlook of the world steel cycle based on the stock and flow dynamics

We present a comprehensive analysis of steel use in the future compiled using dynamic material flow analysis (MFA). A dynamic MFA for 42 countries depicted the global in-use stock and flow up to the end of 2005. On the basis of the transition of steel stock for 2005, the growth of future steel stock was then estimated considering the economic growth for every country. Future steel demand was estimated using dynamic analysis under the new concept of "stocks drive flows". The significant results follow. World steel stock reached 12.7 billion t in 2005, and has doubled in the last 25 years. The world stock in 2005 mainly consisted of construction (60%) and vehicles (10%). Stock in these end uses will reach 55 billion t in 2050, driven by a 10-fold increase in Asia. Steel demand will reach 1.8 billion t in 2025, then slightly decrease, and rise again by replacement of buildings. The forecast of demand clearly represents the industrial shift; at first the increase is dominated by construction, and then, after 2025, demand for construction decreases and demand for vehicles increases instead. This study thus provides the dynamic mechanism of steel stock and flow toward the future, which contributes to the design of sustainable steel use.

Evaluating the economic viability of a material recovery system: the case of cathode ray tube glass

This paper presents an analysis of the material recovery system for leaded glass from cathode ray tubes (CRTs) using a dynamic material flow analysis. In particular, the global mass flow of primary and secondary CRT glass and the theoretical capacities for using secondary CRT glass to make new CRT glass are analyzed. The global mass flow analysis indicates that the amount of new glass required is decreasing, but is much greater than the amount of secondary glass collected, which is increasing. The comparison of the ratio of secondary glass collected to the amount of new glass required from the mass flow analysis indicates that the material recovery system is sustainable for the foreseeable future. However, a prediction of the time at which the market for secondary glass will collapse due to excess capacity is not possible at the moment due to several sources of uncertainty.

Global mapping of Al, Cu, Fe, and Zn in-use stocks and in-ground resources

Human activity has become a significant geomorphic force in modern times, resulting in unprecedented movements of material around Earth. An essential constituent of this material movement, the major industrial metals aluminium, copper, iron, and zinc in the human-built environment are mapped globally at 1-km nominal resolution for the year 2000 and compared with the locations of present-day in-ground resources. While the maps of in-ground resources generated essentially combine available databases, the mapping methodology of in-use stocks relies on the linear regression between gross domestic product and both in-use stock estimates and the Nighttime Lights of the World dataset. As the first global maps of in-use metal stocks, they reveal that a full 25% of the world's Fe, Al, Cu, and Zn in-use deposits are concentrated in three bands: (i) the Eastern seaboard from Washington, D.C. to Boston in the United States, (ii) England, Benelux into Germany and Northern Italy, and (iii) South Korea and Japan. This pattern is consistent across all metals investigated. In contrast, the global maps of primary metal resources reveal these deposits are more evenly distributed between the developed and developing worlds, with the distribution pattern differing depending on the metal. This analysis highlights the magnitude at which in-ground metal resources have been translocated to in-use stocks, largely from highly concentrated but globally dispersed in-ground deposits to more diffuse in-use stocks located primarily in developed urban regions.

Linking material flow analysis and resource policy via future scenarios of in-use stock: an example for copper

A key aspect to achieving long-term resource sustainability is the development of methodologies that explore future material cycles and their environmental impact. Using a novel dynamic in-use stock model and scenario analysis, I analyzed the multilevel global copper cycle over the next 100 years. In 1990, the industrialized world had an in-use copper stock about twice as large as the developing world and a per capita in-use stock of about six times as large. By 2100, the developing world will have an in-use copper stock about three times as large as the industrialized world, but the industrialized world will maintain a per capita stock twice that of the developing world. Under a scenario of no material substitution or technological change in copper products, global in-use stock in 2100 will be about as large as currently known copper resources. However, current scrap recycling trends and exploration will alleviate absolute supply pressure but not environmental impacts from decreasing copper are grades. Additionally, unexpected emergent properties of dematerialization are observed from the in-use stock model that arise solely from the properties of stock dynamics, an infrequently discussed cause of dematerialization in the literature.

Quantifying life cycle environmental benefits from the reuse of industrial materials in Pennsylvania

Local reuse of waste materials from industrial processes has many potential environmental benefits, but these have been difficult to aggregate and measure across industries on a broad geographic scale. Nonhazardous industrial waste is a high volume flow principally constituted of wastewater with some solid materials. The state of Pennsylvania produced some 20 million metric tons of these residual wastes in 2004. An innovative reporting requirement for industrial generators implemented and compiled by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection has resulted in a rich database collected since 1992 of residual waste generation, detailing the fate of more than 100 materials. By combining these records with life cycle inventory (LCI) data, the current and potential environmental benefits of residual waste use have been assessed. Results for Pennsylvania indicate a savings in 2004 of 13 PJ of primary energy, 0.9 million metric tons of CO2eq, 4300 tons of SO2eq, and 4200 tons of NOx emissions from reuse of residual wastes. While these energy savings constitute less than 1% of total industrial primary energy use in the state, it is a greater quantity of energy than that generated by the state's renewable energy sector. The framework and constraints surrounding reuse of residualwaste in Pennsylvania are discussed.

Anthropogenic nickel cycle: insights into use, trade, and recycling

The anthropogenic nickel cycle for the year 2000 was analyzed using a material flow analysis at multiple levels: 52 countries, territories, or country groups, eight regions, and the planet. Special attention was given to the trade in nickel-containing products at different stages of the cycle. A new circular diagram highlights process connections, the role and potential of recycling, and the relevance of trade at different life stages. The following results were achieved. (1) The nickel cycle is dominated by six countries or territories: USA, China and Hong Kong, Japan, Germany, Taiwan, and South Korea; only China also mines some of its nickel used. (2) Nickel is mostly used in alloyed form in stainless steels (68%). (3) More scrap is used for the production of stainless steels (42%) than for other first uses (11%). (4) Industrial machinery is the largest end use category for nickel (25%), followed by buildings and infrastructure (21%) and transportation (20%). (5) 57% of discarded nickel is recycled within the nickel and stainless steel industries, and 14% is lost to other metal markets where nickel is an unwanted constituent of carbon steel and copper alloy scrap.

A systemic health risk assessment for the chromium cycle in Taiwan

Health risk assessment (HRA) has been recognized as a useful tool for identifying health risks of human activities. In particular, this method has been well applied to spatially defined units, such as a production plant, a treatment facility, and a contaminated site. However, the management strategies based on the risk information will be more efficient if the comprehensive picture of total risks from all kinds of sources is depicted. In principle, the total risks can be obtained when all risk sources are assessed individually. Apparently, this approach demands huge amount of efforts. This study develops a methodology that combines substance flow and risk estimation to facilitate examination of risk in a systemic way and provide comprehensive understanding of risk generation and distribution corresponding to flows of substances in the anthroposphere and the environment. Substance flow analysis (SFA) and HRA method is integrated to produce a systemic risk assessment method, from which substance management schemes can be derived. In this study, the chromium cycle in Taiwan is used as an example to demonstrate the method, by which the associated substance flow in the economy and the risk caused by the substance in the environmental system is determined. The concentrations of pollutants in the environmental media, the resultant risks and hazard quotients are calculated with the widely-used CalTOX multimedia model.