Dynamic Advisor-Based Ensemble (dynABE): Case study in stock trend prediction of critical metal companies

Stock trend prediction is a challenging task due to the market’s noise, and machine learning techniques have recently been successful in coping with this challenge. In this research, we create a novel framework for stock prediction, Dynamic Advisor-Based Ensemble (dynABE). dynABE explores domain-specific areas based on the companies of interest, diversifies the feature set by creating different “advisors” that each handles a different area, follows an effective model ensemble procedure for each advisor, and combines the advisors together in a second-level ensemble through an online update strategy we developed. dynABE is able to adapt to price pattern changes of the market during the active trading period robustly, without needing to retrain the entire model. We test dynABE on three cobalt-related companies, and it achieves the best-case misclassification error of 31.12% and an annualized absolute return of 359.55% with zero maximum drawdown. dynABE also consistently outperforms the baseline models of support vector machine, neural network, and random forest in all case studies.

Live and Let Die? Life Cycle Human Health Impacts from the Use of Tire Studs

Studded tires are used in a number of countries during winter in order to prevent accidents. The use of tire studs is controversial and debated because of human health impacts from increased road particle emissions. The aims of this study are to assess whether the use of tire studs in a Scandinavian studded passenger car actually avoids or causes health impacts from a broader life cycle perspective, and to assess the distribution of these impacts over the life cycle. Life cycle assessment is applied and the disability-adjusted life years indicator is used to quantify the following five types of health impacts: (1) impacts saved in the use phase, (2) particle emissions in the use phase, (3) production system emissions, (4) occupational accidents in the production system, and (5) conflict casualties from revenues of cobalt mining. The results show that the health benefits in the use phase in general are outweighed by the negative impacts during the life cycle. The largest contribution to these negative human health impacts are from use phase particle emissions (67⁻77%) and occupational accidents during artisanal cobalt mining (8⁻18%). About 23⁻33% of the negative impacts occur outside Scandinavia, where the benefits occur. The results inform the current debate and highlight the need for research on alternatives to tire studs with a positive net health balance.

Cyanide Scavenging by a Cobalt Schiff-Base Macrocycle: A Cost-Effective Alternative to Corrinoids

The complex of cobalt(II) with the ligand 2,12-dimethyl-3,7,11,17-tetraazabicyclo-[11.3.1]heptadeca-1(17)2,11,13,15-pentaene (CoN4[11.3.1]) has been shown to bind two molecules of cyanide in a cooperative fashion with an association constant of 2.7 (±0.2) × 10(5). In vivo, irrespective of whether it is initially administered as the Co(II) or Co(III) cation, EPR spectroscopic measurements on blood samples show that at physiological levels of reductant (principally ascorbate) CoN4[11.3.1] becomes quantitatively reduced to the Co(II) form. However, following addition of sodium cyanide, a dicyano Co(III) species is formed, both in blood and in buffered aqueous solution at neutral pH. In keeping with other cobalt-containing cyanide-scavenging macrocycles like cobinamide and cobalt(III) meso-tetra(4-N-methylpyridyl)porphine, we found that CoN4[11.3.1] exhibits rapid oxygen turnover in the presence of the physiological reductant ascorbate. This behavior could potentially render CoN4[11.3.1] cytotoxic and/or interfere with evaluations of the antidotal capability of the complex toward cyanide through respirometric measurements, particularly since cyanide rapidly inhibits this process, adding further complexity. A sublethal mouse model was used to assess the effectiveness of CoN4[11.3.1] as a potential cyanide antidote. The administration of CoN4[11.3.1] prophylactically to sodium cyanide-intoxicated mice resulted in the time required for the surviving animals to recover from "knockdown" (unconsciousness) being significantly decreased (3 ± 2 min) compared to that of the controls (22 ± 5 min). All observations are consistent with the demonstrated antidotal activity of CoN4[11.3.1] operating through a cyanide-scavenging mechanism, which is associated with a Co(II) → Co(III) oxidation of the cation. To test for postintoxication neuromuscular sequelae, the ability of mice to remain in position on a rotating cylinder (RotaRod test) was assessed during and after recovery. While intoxicated animals given CoN4[11.3.1] did recover ∼30 min more quickly than controls given only toxicant, there were no indications of longer-term problems in either group, as determined by continuing the RotaRod testing up to 24 h after the intoxications and routine behavioral observations for a further week.

Global flows of critical metals necessary for low-carbon technologies: the case of neodymium, cobalt, and platinum

This study, encompassing 231 countries and regions, quantifies the global transfer of three critical metals (neodymium, cobalt, and platinum) considered vital for low-carbon technologies by means of material flow analysis (MFA), using trade data (BACI) and the metal contents of trade commodities, resolving the optimization problem to ensure the material balance of the metals within each country and region. The study shows that in 2005 international trade led to global flows of 18.6 kt of neodymium, 154 kt of cobalt, and 402 t of platinum and identifies the main commodities and top 50 bilateral trade links embodying these metals. To explore the issue of consumption efficiency, the flows were characterized according to the technological level of each country or region and divided into three types: green ("efficient use"), yellow ("moderately efficient use"), and red ("inefficient use"). On this basis, the shares of green, yellow, and red flows in the aggregate global flow of Nd were found to be 1.2%, 98%, and 1.2%, respectively. For Co, the respective figures are 53%, 28%, and 19%, and for Pt 15%, 84%, and 0.87%. Furthermore, a simple indicator focusing on the composition of the three colored flows for each commodity was developed to identify trade commodities that should be prioritized for urgent technical improvement to reduce wasteful use of the metals. Based on the indicator, we discuss logical, strategic identification of the responsibilities and roles of the countries involved in the global flows.

Tracking the metal of the goblins: cobalt's cycle of use

Cobalt is a vital element in many technological applications, which, together with its increasing end-use in batteries, makes it important to quantify its cycle of use. We have done so for the planet as a whole and for the three principal cobalt-using countries - China, Japan, and the United States - for 2005. Together, China, Japan, and the United States accounted for approximately 65% of the cobalt fabricated and manufactured into end-use products (a total of 37 Gg Co). A time residence model allowed calculations of in-use stock accumulation and recycled and landfilled flows. China had the largest accumulation of in-use stock at some 4.3 Gg Co, over half of which was comprised of consumer battery stock. More than half of the stock accumulation in the United States was estimated to be in aircraft, rocket, and gas turbine engines, with a total in-use stock accumulation of approximately 3 Gg Co. The largest amounts of cobalt landfilled in China, the United States, and the planet were from the "chemical and other uses" category, and Japan's largest landfilled flow was in consumer batteries.

Material availability and the supply chain: risks, effects, and responses

Many authors suggest that market forces are inadequate to successfully manage the problems of resource availability and use. The fundamental question is whether these inadequacies are intrinsic to the market or if they arise from a failure of firms to detect and respond to subtle market signals. This paper explores the latter by describing (1) mechanisms that can limit materials availability, (2) effects of such limits on the firm, (3) preliminary metrics to diagnose these risks, and (4) strategies to reduce a firm's risk exposure. Case analyses of two materials systems are used to suggestthat private firm interests, when properly informed, can motivate strategies that drive toward sustainable materials use. These strategies include (1) improving production efficiency, (2) developing technology to use more sustainable substitute materials, and (3) facilitating a more effective materials recycling infrastructure.