Effects of temperature and nutrient load on the interaction of Vibrio parahaemolyticus and plastic pollution in the marine environment

Plastic pollution in the marine environment harbors a diverse community of microorganisms called the plastisphere. The plastisphere has been found to contain potential pathogenic species of concern to both marine organisms and human health. This study examines the ability of plastic to harbor Vibrio parahaemolyticus, the leading cause of seafood-borne illness around the globe, in varying environmental conditions. A modified crystal violet assay was utilized to measure biofilm growth over 24 h at 18 °C and 25 °C and at five nutrient conditions. Biofilm growth was compared to free-living cell growth, and results show that free-living cell growth significantly increases with both increased temperature and increased nutrient load, yet biofilm formation was minimally responsive to changing conditions. Thus, pathogen-laden biofilms have the ability to form on plastics throughout much of the year, making plastic pollution both a vector for the transport of pathogens and a reservoir of pathogens in adverse environmental conditions.

Ocean exposure and latitude drive multiple clines within the coastal perennial ecotype of the yellow monkeyflower, Mimulus guttatus

PREMISE

A key goal of evolutionary biologists is to understand how and why genetic variation is partitioned within species. In the yellow monkeyflower, Mimulus guttatus (syn. Erythranthe guttata), coastal perennial populations constitute a single genetically and morphologically differentiated ecotype compared to inland M. guttatus populations. While the coastal ecotype's distinctiveness has now been well documented, there is also environmental variation across the ecotype's range that could drive more continuous differentiation among its component populations.

METHODS

Based on previous observations of a potential cline within this ecotype, we quantified plant height, among other traits, across coastal perennial accessions from 74 populations in a greenhouse common garden experiment. To evaluate potential drivers of the relationship between trait variation and latitude, we regressed height against multiple climatic factors, including temperature, precipitation, and coastal wind speeds. We also accounted for exposure to the open ocean in all analyses.

RESULTS

Multiple traits were correlated with latitude of origin, but none more than plant height. Height was negatively correlated with latitude, and plants directly exposed to the open ocean were shorter than those protected from coastal winds. Further analyses revealed that height was correlated with climatic factors (precipitation, temperature, and wind speeds) that were autocorrelated with latitude. We hypothesize that one or more of these climatic factors drove the evolution of latitudinal clinal variation within the coastal ecotype.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, our study illustrates the complexity of how the distribution of environmental variation can simultaneously drive the evolution of both distinct ecotypes and continuous clines within those ecotypes.

Genomics and 20 years of sampling reveal phenotypic differences between subpopulations of outmigrating Central Valley Chinook salmon

Intraspecific diversity plays a critical role in the resilience of Chinook salmon populations. California's Central Valley (CV) historically hosted one of the most diverse population complexes of Chinook salmon in the world. However, anthropogenic factors have dramatically decreased this diversity, with severe consequences for population resilience. Here we use next generation sequencing and an archive of thousands of tissue samples collected across two decades during the juvenile outmigration to evaluate phenotypic diversity between and within populations of CV Chinook salmon. To account for highly heterogeneous sample qualities in the archive dataset, we develop and test an approach for population and subpopulation assignments of CV Chinook salmon that allows inclusion of relatively low-quality samples while controlling error rates. We find significantly distinct outmigration timing and body size distributions for each population and subpopulation. Within the archive dataset, spring run individuals that assigned to the Mill and Deer Creeks subpopulation exhibited an earlier and broader outmigration distribution as well as larger body sizes than individuals that assigned to the Butte Creek subpopulation. Within the fall run population, individuals that assigned to the late-fall run subpopulation also exhibited an earlier and broader outmigration distribution and larger body sizes than other fall run fish in our dataset. These results highlight the importance of distinct subpopulations for maintaining remaining diversity in CV Chinook salmon, and demonstrates the power of genomics-based population assignments to aid the study and management of intraspecific diversity.

Within- and transgenerational stress legacy effects of ocean acidification on red abalone (Haliotis rufescens) growth and survival

Understanding the mechanisms by which individual organisms respond and populations adapt to global climate change is a critical challenge. The role of plasticity and acclimation, within and across generations, may be essential given the pace of change. We investigated plasticity across generations and life stages in response to ocean acidification (OA), which poses a growing threat to both wild populations and the sustainable aquaculture of shellfish. Most studies of OA on shellfish focus on acute effects, and less is known regarding the longer term carryover effects that may manifest within or across generations. We assessed these longer term effects in red abalone (Haliotis rufescens) using a multi-generational split-brood experiment. We spawned adults raised in ambient conditions to create offspring that we then exposed to high pCO2 (1180 μatm; simulating OA) or low pCO2 (450 μatm; control or ambient conditions) during the first 3 months of life. We then allowed these animals to reach maturity in ambient common garden conditions for 4 years before returning the adults into high or low pCO2 treatments for 11 months and measuring growth and reproductive potential. Early-life exposure to OA in the F1 generation decreased adult growth rate even after 5 years especially when abalone were re-exposed to OA as adults. Adult but not early-life exposure to OA negatively impacted fecundity. We then exposed the F2 offspring to high or low pCO2 treatments for the first 3 months of life in a fully factorial, split-brood design. We found negative transgenerational effects of parental OA exposure on survival and growth of F2 offspring, in addition to significant direct effects of OA on F2 survival. These results show that the negative impacts of OA can last within and across generations, but that buffering against OA conditions at critical life-history windows can mitigate these effects.

Examining the reproductive success of bull kelp (Nereocystis luetkeana, Phaeophyceae, Laminariales) in climate change conditions

Climate change is affecting marine ecosystems in many ways, including raising temperatures and leading to ocean acidification. From 2014 to 2016, an extensive marine heat wave extended along the west coast of North America and had devastating effects on numerous species, including bull kelp (Nereocystis luetkeana). Bull kelp is an important foundation species in coastal ecosystems and can be affected by marine heat waves and ocean acidification; however, the impacts have not been investigated on sensitive early life stages. To determine the effects of changing temperatures and carbonate levels on Northern California's bull kelp populations, we collected sporophylls from mature bull kelp individuals in Point Arena, CA. At the Bodega Marine Laboratory, we released spores from field-collected bull kelp, and cultured microscopic gametophytes in a common garden experiment with a fully factorial design crossing modern conditions (11.63 ± 0.54°C and pH 7.93 ± 0.26) with observed extreme climate conditions (15.56 ± 0.83°C and 7.64 ± 0.32 pH). Our results indicated that both increased temperature and decreased pH influenced growth and egg production of bull kelp microscopic stages. Increased temperature resulted in decreased gametophyte survival and offspring production. In contrast, decreased pH had less of an effect but resulted in increased gametophyte survival and offspring production. Additionally, increased temperature significantly impacted reproductive timing by causing female gametophytes to produce offspring earlier than under ambient temperature conditions. Our findings can inform better predictions of the impacts of climate change on coastal ecosystems and provide key insights into environmental dynamics regulating the bull kelp lifecycle.

Effects of basin-scale climate modes and upwelling on nearshore marine heatwaves and cold spells in the California Current

Marine heatwaves and cold spells (MHWs/MCSs) have been observed to be increasing globally in frequency and intensity based on satellite remote sensing and continue to pose a major threat to marine ecosystems worldwide. Despite this, there are limited in-situ based observational studies in the very shallow nearshore region, particularly in Eastern Boundary Current Upwelling Systems (EBUS). We analyzed a unique dataset collected in shallow waters along central California spanning more than four decades (1978-2020) and assessed links with basin-scale climate modes [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño (MEI)] and regional-scale wind-driven upwelling. We found no significant increase/decrease in MHW/MCS frequency, duration, or intensity over the last four decades, but did observe considerable interannual variability linked with basin-scale climate modes. Additionally, there was a decrease in both MHW/MCS occurrence during the upwelling season, and the initiation of individual MHWs/MCSs coincided with anomalous upwelling. Most notably, the co-occurrence of warm (cold) phases of the PDO and MEI with negative (positive) upwelling anomalies strongly enhanced the relative frequency of positive (negative) temperature anomalies and MHW (MCS) days. Collectively, both basin-scale variability and upwelling forcing play a key role in predicting extreme events and shaping nearshore resilience in EBUS.

Three stages in the variation of the depth of hypoxia in the California Current System 2003-2020 by satellite estimation

The depth of hypoxia (DOH) is the shallowest depth at which the waters become hypoxic (oxygen concentration < 60 μmol kg^-1), is a crucial indicator of the formation and expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs). In this study, a nonlinear polynomial regression inversion model was developed to estimate the DOH in the California Current System (CCS), based on the dissolved oxygen profile detected by the Biogeochemical-Argo (BGC-Argo) float and remote sensing data. Satellite-derived net community production was used in the algorithm development, to denote the combined effect of phytoplankton photosynthesis and O₂ consumption. Our model performs well, with a coefficient of determination of 0.82 and a root mean square error of 37.69 m (n = 80) from November 2012 to August 2016. Then, it was used to reconstruct the variation in satellite-derived DOH in the CCS from 2003 to 2020, and three stages of the DOH variation trend were identified. From 2003 to 2013, the DOH showed a significant shallowing trend due to the intense subsurface O₂ consumption caused by strong phytoplankton production in the CCS coastal region. The trend was interrupted by two successive strong climate oscillation events from 2014 to 2016, which led to a significant deepening of the DOH and a slowing, or even reversal, of the variations in other environmental parameters. After 2017, the effects of climate oscillation events gradually disappeared, and the shallowing pattern in the DOH recovered slightly. However, by 2020, the DOH had not returned to the pre-2014 shallowing characteristic, which would lead to continuing complex ecosystem responses in the context of global warming. Based on the satellite inversion model of DOH in the CCS, we provide a new insight on the high-resolution spatiotemporal OMZ variations during an 18-year period in the CCS, which will aid in the evaluation and prediction of local ecosystems variation.

Species' attributes predict the relative magnitude of ecological and genetic recovery following mass mortality

Theoretically, species' characteristics should allow estimation of dispersal potential and, in turn, explain levels of population genetic differentiation. However, a mismatch between traits and genetic patterns is often reported for marine species, and interpreted as evidence that life-history traits do not influence dispersal. Here, we couple ecological and genomic methods to test the hypothesis that species with attributes favouring greater dispersal potential-e.g., longer pelagic duration, higher fecundity and larger population size-have greater realized dispersal overall. We used a natural experiment created by a large-scale and multispecies mortality event which created a "clean slate" on which to study recruitment dynamics, thus simplifying a usually complex problem. We surveyed four species of differing dispersal potential to quantify the abundance and distribution of recruits and to genetically assign these recruits to probable parental sources. Species with higher dispersal potential recolonized a broader extent of the impacted range, did so more quickly and recovered more genetic diversity than species with lower dispersal potential. Moreover, populations of taxa with higher dispersal potential exhibited more immigration (71%-92% of recruits) than taxa with lower dispersal potential (17%-44% of recruits). By linking ecological with genomic perspectives, we demonstrate that a suite of interacting life-history and demographic attributes do influence species' realized dispersal and genetic neighbourhoods. To better understand species' resilience and recovery in this time of global change, integrative eco-evolutionary approaches are needed to more rigorously evaluate the effect of dispersal-linked attributes on realized dispersal and population genetic differentiation.

Influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on SST Fronts Along the West Coasts of North and South America

Along the west coasts of North, Central, and South America, sea surface temperature (SST) fronts are important for circulation dynamics and promoting biological activity. Prevailing equatorward winds during summer results in offshore Ekman transport and upwelling along the coast, where fronts often form between cold, upwelled water and warmer offshore waters. The interannual variability in winds, coastal upwelling, sea level anomalies, and SST in these regions have been linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), however SST fronts have received less attention. Here, we investigate the interannual variability of SST fronts off North, Central, and South America using satellite SST data spanning 1982-2018. Anomalies of fronts within 0-300 km offshore indicate interannual variability that coincides with ENSO events in most regions. Frontal activity generally decreases during El Niño events and increases during La Niña events. The decrease in fronts off Peru and Chile during El Niño coincides with the seasonal peak in frontal activity, while off the United States the decrease occurs when frontal activity is at a seasonal minimum. We also utilized satellite measurements of wind stress and sea level anomaly to investigate how ENSO oceanic and atmospheric forcing mechanisms affect frontal activity. Decreases in frontal activity during El Niño events are largely due to oceanic forcing (i.e., coastal Kelvin waves) off Central and South America and to both oceanic forcing and atmospheric teleconnections off the United States. This study furthers our understanding of the influence of ENSO on coastal upwelling regions in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Coupled changes in pH, temperature, and dissolved oxygen impact the physiology and ecology of herbivorous kelp forest grazers

Understanding species' responses to upwelling may be especially important in light of ongoing environmental change. Upwelling frequency and intensity are expected to increase in the future, while ocean acidification and deoxygenation are expected to decrease the pH and dissolved oxygen (DO) of upwelled waters. However, the acute effects of a single upwelling event and the integrated effects of multiple upwelling events on marine organisms are poorly understood. Here, we use in situ measurements of pH, temperature, and DO to characterize the covariance of environmental conditions within upwelling-dominated kelp forest ecosystems. We then test the effects of acute (0-3 days) and chronic (1-3 months) upwelling on the performance of two species of kelp forest grazers, the echinoderm, Mesocentrotus franciscanus, and the gastropod, Promartynia pulligo. We exposed organisms to static conditions in a regression design to determine the shape of the relationship between upwelling and performance and provide insights into the potential effects in a variable environment. We found that respiration, grazing, growth, and net calcification decline linearly with increasing upwelling intensity for M. francicanus over both acute and chronic timescales. Promartynia pulligo exhibited decreased respiration, grazing, and net calcification with increased upwelling intensity after chronic exposure, but we did not detect an effect over acute timescales or on growth after chronic exposure. Given the highly correlated nature of pH, temperature, and DO in the California Current, our results suggest the relationship between upwelling intensity and growth in the 3-month trial could potentially be used to estimate growth integrated over long-term dynamic oceanographic conditions for M. franciscanus. Together, these results indicate current exposure to upwelling may reduce species performance and predicted future increases in upwelling frequency and intensity could affect ecosystem function by modifying the ecological roles of key species.

Mesophotic Coral Ecosystems in the Eastern Tropical Pacific: The current state of knowledge and the spatial variability of their depth boundaries

In the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP), Mesophotic Coral Ecosystems (MCEs) are limited by oceanographic conditions and are thought to be mostly absent. However, considering the currently discussed more flexible approach to define mesophotic boundaries, based on light availability, we performed a systematic search to assess their current state of knowledge. Using MODIS-Aqua satellite data (Kd₄₉₀), we calculated the mesophotic boundaries in the ETP, based on optical depths, and performed a bibliographic search of studies carried out at those depths, including those present in turbid waters with Kd_PAR values up to 0.2 m^-1. Seventy-seven papers on MCEs research were compiled in this review, recording a total of 138 species. The studies focus almost exclusively on taxonomy, ecosystem function, and reviews, indicating the need for future research regarding aspects, such as structuring environmental variables, molecular ecology, and natural resource management. Furthermore, remote sensing data show that there exists a high spatial variability of water transparency in the ETP, resulting in significant differences in Kd_PAR between oceanic and continental locations, mostly related to the occurrence of seasonal upwelling in the latter. Based on Kd_PAR, we estimated the mesophotic depth boundaries (z_10%, z_1%, z_0.1%) for specific locations within the ETP and found that MCEs can potentially occur as shallow as 13-15 m in coastal regions. Also, we compared the calculated boundaries with the respective deepest records of light-dependent corals. With one exception, the presence of the corals was restricted to the upper mesophotic subzone (z_10%-z_1%), which agrees with reports for other regions, showing that light availability is one of the main drivers for the bathymetric distribution of MCEs and can be used as a first approach to identify their potential presence, though other local factors (e.g., geomorphology, temperature, internal waves) should also be considered, as they can cause shifts in depth limits.

Coast-wide evidence of low pH amelioration by seagrass ecosystems

Global-scale ocean acidification has spurred interest in the capacity of seagrass ecosystems to increase seawater pH within crucial shoreline habitats through photosynthetic activity. However, the dynamic variability of the coastal carbonate system has impeded generalization into whether seagrass aerobic metabolism ameliorates low pH on physiologically and ecologically relevant timescales. Here we present results of the most extensive study to date of pH modulation by seagrasses, spanning seven meadows (Zostera marina) and 1000 km of U.S. west coast over 6 years. Amelioration by seagrass ecosystems compared to non-vegetated areas occurred 65% of the time (mean increase 0.07 ± 0.008 SE). Events of continuous elevation in pH within seagrass ecosystems, indicating amelioration of low pH, were longer and of greater magnitude than opposing cases of reduced pH or exacerbation. Sustained elevations in pH of >0.1, comparable to a 30% decrease in [H⁺ ], were not restricted only to daylight hours but instead persisted for up to 21 days. Maximal pH elevations occurred in spring and summer during the seagrass growth season, with a tendency for stronger effects in higher latitude meadows. These results indicate that seagrass meadows can locally alleviate low pH conditions for extended periods of time with important implications for the conservation and management of coastal ecosystems.

Upwelling Bays: How Coastal Upwelling Controls Circulation, Habitat, and Productivity in Bays

Bays in coastal upwelling regions are physically driven and biochemically fueled by their interaction with open coastal waters. Wind-driven flow over the shelf imposes a circulation in the bay, which is also influenced by local wind stress and thermal bay-ocean density differences. Three types of bays are recognized based on the degree of exposure to coastal currents and winds (wide-open bays, square bays, and elongated bays), and the characteristic circulation and stratification patterns of each type are described. Retention of upwelled waters in bays allows for dense phytoplankton blooms that support productive bay ecosystems. Retention is also important for the accumulation of larvae, which accounts for high recruitment in bays. In addition, bays are coupled to the shelf ecosystem through export of plankton-rich waters during relaxation events. Ocean acidification and deoxygenation are a concern in bays because local extrema can develop beneath strong stratification.

Ecological change in dynamic environments: Accounting for temporal environmental variability in studies of ocean change biology

The environmental conditions in the ocean have long been considered relatively more stable through time compared to the conditions on land. Advances in sensing technologies, however, are increasingly revealing substantial fluctuations in abiotic factors over ecologically and evolutionarily relevant timescales in the ocean, leading to a growing recognition of the dynamism of the marine environment as well as new questions about how this dynamism may influence species' vulnerability to global environmental change. In some instances, the diurnal or seasonal variability in major environmental change drivers, such as temperature, pH and seawater carbonate chemistry, and dissolved oxygen, can exceed the changes expected with continued anthropogenic global change. While ocean global change biologists have begun to experimentally test how variability in environmental conditions mediates species' responses to changes in the mean, the extensive literature on species' adaptations to temporal variability in their environment and the implications of this variability for their evolutionary responses has not been well integrated into the field. Here, we review the physiological mechanisms underlying species' responses to changes in temperature, pCO₂ /pH (and other carbonate parameters), and dissolved oxygen, and discuss what is known about behavioral, plastic, and evolutionary strategies for dealing with variable environments. In addition, we discuss how exposure to variability may influence species' responses to changes in the mean conditions and highlight key research needs for ocean global change biology.

Offshore transport of particulate organic carbon in the California Current System by mesoscale eddies

The California Current System is characterized by upwelling and rich mesoscale eddy activity. Cyclonic eddies generally pinch off from meanders in the California Current, potentially trapping upwelled water along the coast and transporting it offshore. Here, we use satellite-derived measurements of particulate organic carbon (POC) as a tracer of coastal water to show that cyclones located offshore that were generated near the coast contain higher carbon concentrations in their interior than cyclones of the same amplitude generated offshore. This indicates that eddies are in fact trapping and transporting coastal water offshore, resulting in an offshore POC enrichment of 20.9 ± 11 Gg year⁻¹. This POC enrichment due to the coastally-generated eddies extends for 1000 km from shore. This analysis provides large-scale observational-based evidence that eddies play a quantitatively important role in the offshore transport of coastal water, substantially widening the area influenced by highly productive upwelled waters in the California Current System.

The California Current System is characterized by wind-driven upwelling and by rich mesoscale eddy activity, resulting in a highly productive ecosystem. Here the authors show that offshore cyclonic eddies which were generated near the coast contain higher carbon concentrations in their interior than eddies of the same amplitude generated locally offshore.

Using Saildrones to Validate Satellite-Derived Sea Surface Salinity and Sea Surface Temperature along the California/Baja Coast

Traditional ways of validating satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface salinity (SSS) products by comparing with buoy measurements, do not allow for evaluating the impact of mesoscale-to-submesoscale variability. We present the validation of remotely sensed SST and SSS data against the unmanned surface vehicle (USV)—called Saildrone—measurements from the 60 day 2018 Baja California campaign. More specifically, biases and root mean square differences (RMSDs) were calculated between USV-derived SST and SSS values, and six satellite-derived SST (MUR, OSTIA, CMC, K10, REMSS, and DMI) and three SSS (JPLSMAP, RSS40, RSS70) products. Biases between the USV SST and OSTIA/CMC/DMI were approximately zero, while MUR showed a bias of 0.3 °C. The OSTIA showed the smallest RMSD of 0.39 °C, while DMI had the largest RMSD of 0.5 °C. An RMSD of 0.4 °C between Saildrone SST and the satellite-derived products could be explained by the diurnal and sub-daily variability in USV SST, which currently cannot be resolved by remote sensing measurements. SSS showed fresh biases of 0.1 PSU for JPLSMAP and 0.2 PSU and 0.3 PSU for RMSS40 and RSS70 respectively. SST and SSS showed peaks in coherence at 100 km, most likely associated with the variability of the California Current System.

SMAP and CalCOFI Observe Freshening during the 2014–2016 Northeast Pacific Warm Anomaly

Data from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission (SMAP) and from the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) were used to examine the freshening that occurred during 2015–2016 in the Southern California Current System. Overall, the freshening was found to be related to the 2014–2016 Northeast Pacific Warm Anomaly. The primary goal was to determine the feasibility of using SMAP data to observe the surface salinity signal associated with the warming and its coastal impact. As a first step, direct comparisons were done with salinity from the CalCOFI data at one-meter depth. During 2015, SMAP was saltier than CalCOFI by 0.5 Practical Salinity Units (PSU), but biases were reduced to <0.1 PSU during 2016. South of 33°N, and nearer to the coast where upwelling dominates, SMAP was fresher in 2015 by almost 0.2 PSU. CalCOFI showed freshening of 0.1 PSU. North of 33°N, SMAP and CalCOFI saw significant freshening in 2016, SMAP by 0.4 PSU and CalCOFI by 0.2 PSU. Differences between SMAP and CalCOFI are consistent with the increased stratification in 2015 and changes in the mixed layer depth. SMAP observed freshening that reached the Baja California Coast.

Spatio-Temporal Variation in Effects of Upwelling on the Fatty Acid Composition of Benthic Filter Feeders in the Southern Benguela Ecosystem: Not All Upwelling Is Equal

Variability in mesoscale nearshore oceanographic conditions plays an important role in the distribution of primary production and food availability for intertidal consumers. Advection of nutrient rich waters by upwelling usually allows the proliferation of diatoms, later replaced by dinoflagellates. We examined upwelling effects on the fatty acid (FA) signature of a benthic intertidal filter feeder to identify its response to pulsed variability in food availability. The study took place in two contrasting seasons and at two upwelling and two non-upwelling sites interspersed within the southern Benguela upwelling system of South Africa. We investigated the FA composition of the adductor muscles and gonads of the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis to assess how FA are apportioned to the different tissues and whether this changes between upwelling and non-upwelling conditions. In situ temperature loggers used to identify upwelling conditions at the four sites indicated that such events occurred only at the upwelling centres and only in summer. Tissues differed strongly, with gonads presenting a higher proportion of essential FAs. This could reflect the faster turnover rate of gonad tissue or preferential retention of specific FA for reproductive purposes. FA composition did not vary as a direct function of upwelling, but there were strong dissimilarities among sites. Upwelling influenced mussel diets at one upwelling site while at the other, the expected signature of upwelling was displaced downstream of the core of upwelling. Condition Index (CI) and Gonad Index (GI) differed among sites and were not influenced by upwelling, with GI being comparable among sites. In addition, FA proportions were consistent among sites, indicating similar food quality and quantity over time and under upwelling and non-upwelling conditions. This suggests that the influence of upwelling on the west coast of South Africa is pervasive and diffuse, rather than discrete; while nearshore retention or advection of upwelled water is critical and site-specific so that the effects of upwelling differ even among sites categorised as upwelling centres.

Hydrodynamic properties of San Quintin Bay, Baja California: Merging models and observations

We investigated the physical dynamics of San Quintin Bay, a coastal lagoon located on the Pacific coast of northern Baja California, Mexico. We implemented, validated and used a finite element 2-D hydrodynamic model to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of the hydrodynamic of the bay in response to variability in the tidal regime and in meteorological forcing patterns. Our analysis of general circulation, residual currents, residence times, and tidal propagation delays allowed us to characterize spatial variability in the hydrodynamic basin features. The eulerian water residence time is -on average and under reference conditions- approximately 7days, although this can change significantly by region and season and under different tidal and meteorological conditions. Ocean upwelling events that bring colder waters into the bay mouth affect hydrodynamic properties in all areas of the lagoon and may affect ecological dynamics. A return to pre-upwelling conditions would take approximately 10days.

Shifting Effects of Ocean Conditions on Survival and Breeding Probability of a Long-Lived Seabird

With a rapidly changing climate, there is an increasing need to predict how species will respond to changes in the physical environment. One approach is to use historic data to estimate the past influence of environmental variation on important demographic parameters and then use these relationships to project the abundance of a population or species under future climate scenarios. However, as novel climate conditions emerge, novel species responses may also appear. In some systems, environmental conditions beyond the range of those observed during the course of most long-term ecological studies are already evident. Yet little attention has been given to how these novel conditions may be influencing previously established environment–species relationships. Here, we model the relationships between ocean conditions and the demography of a long-lived seabird, Brandt’s cormorant (Phalacrocorax penicillatusI), in central California and show that these relationships have changed in recent years. Beginning in 2007/2008, the response of Brandt’s cormorant, an upper trophic level predator, to ocean conditions shifted, resulting in lower than predicted survival and breeding probability. Survival was generally less variable than breeding probability and was initially best predicted by the basin-scale forcing of the El Niño Southern Oscillation rather than local ocean conditions. The shifting response of Brandt’s cormorant to ocean conditions may be just a proximate indication of altered dynamics in the food web and that important forage fish are not responding to the physical ocean environment as expected. These changing relationships have important implications for our ability to project the effects of future climate change for species and communities.