The buffer effect and large-scale population regulation in migratory birds

Effects of agriculture and nature reserves on avian behavior in northwestern Costa Rica

Behavioral changes are often animals' first responses to environmental change and may act as a bellwether for population viability. Nonetheless, most studies of habitat conversion focus on changes in species occurrences or abundances. We analyzed >14,000 behavioral observations across 55 bird species in communities in northwestern Costa Rica to determine how land use affects reproductive, foraging, and other passive kinds of behaviors not associated with either foraging or reproduction. Specifically, we quantified differences in behaviors between farms, privately owned forests, and protected areas and implemented a novel modeling framework to account for variation in detection among behaviors. This framework entailed estimating abundances of birds performing different behaviors while allowing detection probabilities of individuals to vary by behavior. Birds were 1.2 times more likely to exhibit reproductive behaviors in forest than in agriculture and 1.5 times more likely to exhibit reproductive behaviors in protected areas than in private forests. Species were not always most abundant in the habitats where they were most likely to exhibit foraging or reproductive behaviors. Finally, species of higher conservation concern were less abundant in agriculture than in forest. Together, our results highlight the importance of behavioral analyses for elucidating the conservation value of different land uses.

Local buffer mechanisms for population persistence

Assessing and predicting the persistence of populations is essential for the conservation and control of species. Here, we argue that local mechanisms require a better conceptual synthesis to facilitate a more holistic consideration along with regional mechanisms known from metapopulation theory. We summarise the evidence for local buffer mechanisms along with their capacities and emphasise the need to include multiple buffer mechanisms in studies of population persistence. We propose an accessible framework for local buffer mechanisms that distinguishes between damping (reducing fluctuations in population size) and repelling (reducing population declines) mechanisms. We highlight opportunities for empirical and modelling studies to investigate the interactions and capacities of buffer mechanisms to facilitate better ecological understanding in times of ecological upheaval.

Breeding populations of Marbled Godwits and Willets have high annual survival and strong site fidelity to managed wetlands

The Prairie Pothole Region of central Canada supports a diverse community of breeding waterbirds, but many species have declining populations and the demographic mechanisms driving the declines remain unknown. We conducted a 7-year field study during 1995-2001 to investigate the demographic performance of Marbled Godwits (Limosa fedoa) and Willets (Tringa semipalmata) breeding in managed wetlands near Brooks, Alberta. Mark-recapture analyses based on Cormack-Jolly-Seber models revealed that the annual rates of apparent survival for Marbled Godwits ( ϕ ^  = 0.953 ± 0.012SE) and Willets ( ϕ ^  = 0.861 ± 0.015SE) are among the highest rates of survivorship reported for any breeding or nonbreeding population of large-bodied shorebirds. Our estimates of life expectancy for males were comparable to longevity records in godwits (17.3 years ±5.8SE vs. 25-29+ years) and willets (7.7 ± 1.5SE vs. 10+ years). The two species both showed strong breeding site fidelity but differed in rates of mate fidelity. Pairs that reunited and males that switched mates usually nested <300 m from their previous nests, whereas females that switched mates usually moved longer distances >1.1-1.5 km. Returning pairs usually reunited in godwits (85%) but not in willets (28%), possibly because of species differences in adult survival or patterns of migration. Baseline estimates of annual survival for banded-only birds will be useful for evaluating the potential effects of new tracking tags or the environmental changes that have occurred during the past 20 years. Conservation strategies for large-bodied shorebirds should be focused on reduction of exposure to anthropogenic mortality because low rates of natural mortality suggest that losses to collisions at breeding sites or harvest at nonbreeding areas are likely to cause additive mortality.

Unravelling processes between phenotypic plasticity and population dynamics in migratory birds

Populations can rapidly respond to environmental change via adaptive phenotypic plasticity, which can also modify interactions between individuals and their environment, affecting population dynamics. Bird migration is a highly plastic resource‐tracking tactic in seasonal environments. However, the link between the population dynamics of migratory birds and migration tactic plasticity is not well‐understood.

The quality of staging habitats affects individuals' migration timing and energy budgets in the course of migration and can consequently affect individuals' breeding and overwintering performance, and impact population dynamics. Given staging habitats being lost in many parts of the world, our goal is to investigate responses of individual migration tactics and population dynamics in the face of loss of staging habitat and to identify the key processes connecting them.

We started by constructing and analysing a general full‐annual‐cycle individual‐based model with a stylized migratory population to generate hypotheses on how changes in the size of staging habitat might drive changes in individual stopover duration and population dynamics. Next, through the interrogation of survey data, we tested these hypotheses by analysing population trends and stopover duration of migratory waterbirds experiencing the loss of staging habitat.

Our modelling exercise led to us posing the following hypotheses: the loss of staging habitat generates plasticity in migration tactics, with individuals remaining on the staging habitat for longer to obtain food due to a reduction in per capita food availability. The subsequent increasing population density on the staging habitat has knock‐on effects on population dynamics in the breeding and overwintering stage. Our empirical results were consistent with the modelling predictions.

Our results demonstrate how environmental change that impacts one energetically costly life‐history stage in migratory birds can have population dynamic impacts across the entire annual cycle via phenotypic plasticity.

Site-dependent regulation of breeding success: evidence for the buffer effect in the common guillemot, a colonially-breeding seabird

Density-dependent regulation can offer resilience to wild populations experiencing fluctuations in environmental conditions because, at lower population sizes, the average quality of habitats or resources is predicted to increase. Site-dependent regulation is a mechanism whereby individuals breed at the highest quality, most successful, sites, leaving poorer quality, less successful sites vacant. As population size increases, higher quality sites become limiting but when populations decline, lower quality sites are vacated first, offering resilience. This process is known as the 'buffer effect'. However, few studies have tested whether such regulation operates in populations experiencing changes in size and trend. We used data from a population of common guillemots Uria aalge, a colonially breeding seabird, to investigate the relationship between site occupancy probability, site quality and population size and trend. These data were collected at five sub-colonies spanning a 38-year period (1981-2018) comprising phases of population increase, decrease and recovery. We first tested whether site quality and population size in sub-colonies explained which sites were occupied for breeding, and if this was robust to changes in sub-colony trend. We then investigated whether disproportionate use of higher quality sites drove average site quality and breeding success across sub-colony sizes and trends. Finally, we tested whether individuals consistently occupied higher quality sites during periods of decline and recovery. Higher quality sites were disproportionality used when sub-colony size was smaller, resulting in higher average site quality and breeding success at lower population sizes. This relationship was unaffected by changes in sub-colony trend. However, contrary to the predictions of the buffer effect, new sites were established at a similar rate to historically occupied sites during sub-colony decline and recovery despite being of lower quality. Our results provide support for the buffer effect conferring resilience to populations, such that average breeding success was consistently higher at lower population size during all phases of population change. However, this process was tempered by the continued establishment of new, lower quality, sites which could act to slow population recovery after periods when colony size was low.

The relationship between urban refuse with fecundity and nestlings' success of a generalist seabird in the Río de la Plata Estuary - Uruguay

Resource acquisition and allocation impacts individual fitness. Using pellet analysis of breeding adults and stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen of down feathers of Kelp Gull (Larus dominicanus) nestlings, we evaluated the relationship between urban refuse (beef and chicken) and natural food (fish) consumption of individual females during the pre-incubation period, with fecundity and young nesting's success in the Río de la Plata Estuary in Uruguay. Assimilated urban refuse positively correlated with egg weight and negatively with young nestling's success. This suggests a possible impact of urban refuse foraged by females during the pre-incubation period on their immediate fecundity (positively) and young nestling's survival (negatively). Differences between studies at the individual and colony levels are also discussed in light of an "ecological fallacy" of interpretation and we thus argue for the need of additional research to evaluate this relationship further, considering potential confounding factors.

Density-dependent winter survival of immatures in an irruptive raptor with pulsed breeding

Highly mobile predators can show strong numerical responses to pulsed resources, sometimes resulting in irruptions where large numbers of young invade landscapes at a continental scale. High production of young in irruption years may have a strong influence on the population dynamics unless immature survival is reduced compared to non-irruption years. This could occur if subordinate individuals (mainly immatures) are forced into suboptimal habitats due to density-dependent effects in irruption years. To test whether irruptive individuals had lower survival than non-irruptive ones, we combined necropsy results (N = 365) with telemetry (N = 185) from more than 20 years to record timing and causes of mortality in snowy owls (Bubo scandiacus), which irrupt into eastern North America during winter following high breeding output caused by lemming peaks in the Arctic. Mortality was more than four times higher in irruption years than non-irruption years, but only for immatures, and occurred disproportionately in early winter for immatures, but not adults. Mortality was also higher in eastern North America, where owl abundance fluctuates considerably between years, compared to core winter regions of the Arctic and Prairies where populations are more stable. Most mortality was not due to starvation, but rather associated with human activity, especially vehicle collisions. We conclude that immature snowy owls that irrupt into eastern North America are limited by density-dependent factors, such as increased competition forcing individuals to occupy risky human-altered habitats. For highly mobile, irruptive animals, resource pulses may have a limited impact on population dynamics due to low subsequent survival of breeding output during the nonbreeding season.

Forest management affects seasonal source-sink dynamics in a territorial, group-living bird

The persistence of wildlife populations is under threat as a consequence of human activities, which are degrading natural ecosystems. Commercial forestry is the greatest threat to biodiversity in boreal forests. Forestry practices have degraded most available habitat, threatening the persistence of natural populations. Understanding population responses is, therefore, critical for their conservation. Population viability analyses are effective tools to predict population persistence under forestry management. However, quantifying the mechanisms driving population responses is complex as population dynamics vary temporally and spatially. Metapopulation dynamics are governed by local dynamics and spatial factors, potentially mediating the impacts of forestry e.g., through dispersal. Here, we performed a seasonal, spatially explicit population viability analysis, using long-term data from a group-living territorial bird (Siberian jay, Perisoreus infaustus). We quantified the effects of forest management on metapopulation dynamics, via forest type-specific demography and spatially explicit dispersal, and how forestry impacted the stability of metapopulation dynamics. Forestry reduced metapopulation growth and stability, through negative effects on reproduction and survival. Territories in higher quality natural forest contributed more to metapopulation dynamics than managed forests, largely through demographic processes rather than dispersal. Metapopulation dynamics in managed forest were also less resilient to disturbances and consequently, may be more vulnerable to environmental change. Seasonal differences in source-sink dynamics observed in managed forest, but not natural forests, were caused by associated seasonal differences in dispersal. As shown here, capturing seasonal source-sink dynamics allows us to predict population persistence under human disturbance and to provide targeted conservation recommendations.

Carryover effects of long-distance avian migration are weaker than effects of breeding environment in a partially migratory bird

Migration may expose individuals to a wide range of increasing anthropogenic threats. In addition to direct mortality effects, this exposure may influence post-migratory reproductive fitness. Partial migration-where a population comprises migrants and residents-represents a powerful opportunity to explore carryover effects of migration. Studies of partial migration in birds typically examine short-distance systems; here we studied an unusual system where residents breed in mixed colonies alongside long-distance trans-Saharan migrants (lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) in Spain). Combining geolocator data, stable isotope analysis and resighting data, we examined the effects of this stark difference in migratory strategy on body condition, breeding phenology and breeding success. We monitored four colonies in two regions of southern Spain for five consecutive years (2014-2018), yielding 1962 captures, determining migratory strategy for 141 adult bird-years. Despite a 3000-km difference in distance travelled, we find no effect of strategy on breeding parameters. We find weak evidence for a short-term negative carryover effect of migration on body condition, but this was only apparent in the breeding region with lower primary productivity. Our results indicate that carryover effects of even highly divergent migratory strategies may be minimal relative to effects of conditions experienced on breeding grounds.

Protection of wetlands as a strategy for reducing the spread of avian influenza from migratory waterfowl

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 has led to the death or destruction of millions of domesticated and wild birds and caused hundreds of human deaths worldwide. As with other HPAIs, H5N1 outbreaks among poultry have generally been caused by contact with infected migratory waterfowl at the interface of wildlands and human-dominated landscapes. Using a case-control epidemiological approach, we analyzed the relation between habitat protection and H5N1 outbreaks in China from 2004 to 2017. We found that while proximity to unprotected waterfowl habitats and rice paddy generally increased outbreak risk, proximity to the most highly protected habitats (e.g., Ramsar-designated lakes and wetlands) had the opposite effect. Protection likely involves two mechanisms: the separation of wild waterfowl and poultry populations and the diversion of wild waterfowl from human-dominated landscapes toward protected natural habitats. Wetland protection could therefore be an effective means to control avian influenza while also contributing to avian conservation.

Low fitness at low latitudes: Wintering in the tropics increases migratory delays and mortality rates in an Arctic breeding shorebird

Evolutionary theories of seasonal migration generally assume that the costs of longer migrations are balanced by benefits at the non‐breeding destinations.

We tested, and rejected, the null hypothesis of equal survival and timing of spring migration for High Arctic breeding sanderling Calidris alba using six and eight winter destinations between 55°N and 25°S, respectively.

Annual apparent survival was considerably lower for adult birds wintering in tropical West Africa (Mauritania: 0.74 and Ghana: 0.75) than in three European sites (0.84, 0.84 and 0.87) and in subtropical Namibia (0.85). Moreover, compared with adults, second calendar‐year sanderlings in the tropics, but not in Europe, often refrained from migrating north during the first possible breeding season. During northward migration, tropical‐wintering sanderlings occurred at their final staging site in Iceland 5–15 days later than birds wintering further north or south. Namibia‐wintering sanderlings tracked with solar geolocators only staged in West Africa during southward migration.

The low annual survival, the later age of first northward migration and the later passage through Iceland during northward migration of tropical‐wintering sanderlings, in addition to the skipping of this area during northward but not southward migration by Namibia‐wintering sanderlings, all suggest they face issues during the late non‐breeding season in West Africa.

Migrating sanderlings defy long distances but may end up in winter areas with poor fitness prospects. We suggest that ecological conditions in tropical West Africa make the fuelling prior to northward departure problematic.

Mechanisms driving phenological and range change in migratory species

Many migratory systems are changing rapidly in space and time, and these changes present challenges for conservation. Changes in local abundance and site occupancy across species' ranges have raised concerns over the efficacy of the existing protected area networks, while changes in phenology can potentially create mismatches in the timing of annual events with the availability of key resources. These changes could arise either through individuals shifting in space and time or through generational shifts in the frequency of individuals using different locations or on differing migratory schedules. Using a long-term study of a migratory shorebird in which individuals have been tracked through a period of range expansion and phenological change, we show that these changes occur through generational shifts in spatial and phenological distributions, and that individuals are highly consistent in space and time. Predictions of future rates of changes in range size and phenology, and their implications for species conservation, will require an understanding of the processes that can drive generational shifts. We therefore explore the developmental, demographic and environmental processes that could influence generational shifts in phenology and distribution, and the studies that will be needed to distinguish among these mechanisms of change.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation’.

Numbers and distribution of the Great Cormorant in Iceland: Limitation at the regional and metapopulation level

We studied a metapopulation of great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) in Iceland, using complete aerial censuses of nests in 25 years during 1975-2015. Age composition was estimated in 1998-2014 by ground surveys in September and February. Brood size was estimated from aerial photographs in 2007-2015.Weather, food, breeding habitat, and density were considered as explanatory variables when examining numerical and distributional changes in the cormorant metapopulation.In 1975-1990 total nest numbers changed little, very low numbers about 1992 were followed by an annual increase of 3.5% in 1994-2015. Total nest numbers were positively correlated with estimates of spawning stocks of cod and saithe and inversely related to the subpolar gyre index (SPG-I).During the increase in 1994-2015, average colony size at first increased and then declined. Habitat use also changed: the proportion of nests on small rocky islets (skerries) at first declined, from 69% to 44% in 1995-2003 and then increased again to about 58% in 2012-2014. Habitat changes were probably a response to changed patterns of human disturbance.Breeding density, as nests per km2 sea <20 m deep, was rather uniform among five defined regions in 1975-1996. Thereafter, densities became much higher in two sheltered regions with kelp forests and in one mostly exposed region. A second exposed region remained low and in the third nest numbers declined markedly. Thus, carrying capacity was higher in sheltered regions where cormorant breeding had historically been depressed by human disturbance.Brood size varied little among regions but declined with the years from about 2.5 to 1.8.The proportion of juveniles in September (fecundity) declined in 1998-2015 from over 0.4 to 0.3 and was inversely correlated with year and nest numbers, if outlier years were excluded, suggesting resource limitation. Survival of juvenile cormorants in September-February was estimated at 0.471 ± 0.066 SE. Commercial fish stocks and climate indices were not correlated with the proportion of juveniles.Annual survival of adults (breeding and nonbreeding) was estimated from nest counts and age composition 1999-2014, as 0.850 ± 0.026 SE and showed no trend in 1998-2014.We conclude that the metapopulation of cormorants in Iceland was resource-limited at two levels: fecundity at the regional and winter survival at the total level.

Linking warming effects on phenology, demography, and range expansion in a migratory bird population

Phenological changes in response to climate change have been recorded in many taxa, but the population-level consequences of these changes are largely unknown. If phenological change influences demography, it may underpin the changes in range size and distribution that have been associated with climate change in many species. Over the last century, Icelandic black-tailed godwits (Limosa limosa islandica) have increased 10-fold in numbers, and their breeding range has expanded throughout lowland Iceland, but the environmental and demographic drivers of this expansion remain unknown. Here, we explore the potential for climate-driven shifts in phenology to influence demography and range expansion. In warmer springs, Icelandic black-tailed godwits lay their clutches earlier, resulting in advances in hatching dates in those years. Early hatching is beneficial as population-wide tracking of marked individuals shows that chick recruitment to the adult population is greater for early hatched individuals. Throughout the last century, this population has expanded into progressively colder breeding areas in which hatch dates are later, but temperatures have increased throughout Iceland since the 1960s. Using these established relationships between temperature, hatching dates and recruitment, we show that these warming trends have the potential to have fueled substantial increases in recruitment throughout Iceland, and thus to have contributed to local population growth and expansion across the breeding range. The demographic consequences of temperature-mediated phenological changes, such as the advances in lay dates and increased recruitment associated with early hatching reported here, may therefore be key processes in driving population size and range changes in response to climate change.

Multiple components of environmental change drive populations of breeding waders in seminatural grasslands

Environments are rapidly changing due to climate change, land use, intensive agriculture, and the impact of hunting on predator populations. Here, we analyzed long-term data recorded during 1928-2014 on the size of breeding populations of waders at two large nature reserves in Denmark, Vejlerne and Tipperne, to determine the effects of components of environmental change on breeding populations of waders. Environmental variables and counts of waders were temporally autocorrelated, and we used generalized least square (GLS) by incorporating the first-order autoregressive correlation structure in the analyses. We attempted to predict the abundance of waders for short-term trends for two nature reserves (35 years) and for long-term trends for one nature reserve (86 years), using precipitation, temperature, nutrients, abundance of foxes Vulpes vulpes, area grazed, and number of cattle. There was evidence of impacts of nutrients, climate (long-term changes in temperature and precipitation), grazing, mowing, and predation on bird populations. We used standard random effects meta-analyses weighted by (N-3) to quantify these mean effects. There was no significant difference in effect size among species, while mean effect size differed consistently among environmental factors, and the interaction between effect size for species and environmental factors was also significant. Thus, environmental factors affected the different species differently. Mean effect size was the largest at +0.20 for rain, +0.11 for temperature, -0.09 for fox abundance, and -0.03 for number of cattle, while there was no significant mean effect for fertilizer, area grazed, and year. Effect sizes for two short-term time series from Tipperne and Vejlerne were positively correlated as were effect sizes for short-term and long-term time series at Tipperne. This implies that environmental factors had consistent effects across large temporal and spatial scales.

Increased consumer density reduces the strength of neighborhood effects in a model system

An individual's susceptibility to attack can be influenced by conspecific and heterospecifics neighbors. Predicting how these neighborhood effects contribute to population-level processes such as competition and evolution requires an understanding of how the strength of neighborhood effects is modified by changes in the abundances of both consumers and neighboring resource species. We show for the first time that consumer density can interact with the density and frequency of neighboring organisms to determine the magnitude of neighborhood effects. We used the bean beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus, and two of its host beans, Vigna unguiculata and V. radiata, to perform a response-surface experiment with a range of resource densities and three consumer densities. At low beetle density, damage to beans was reduced with increasing conspecific density (i.e., resource dilution) and damage to the less preferred host, V. unguiculata, was reduced with increasing V. radiata frequency (i.e., frequency-dependent associational resistance). As beetle density increased, however, neighborhood effects were reduced; at the highest beetle densities neither focal nor neighboring resource density nor frequency influenced damage. These findings illustrate the importance of consumer density in mediating indirect effects among resources, and suggest that accounting for consumer density may improve our ability to predict population-level outcomes of neighborhood effects and our use of them in applications such as mixed-crop pest management.

Finish with a sprint: Evidence for time-selected last leg of migration in a long-distance migratory songbird

Under time-selected migration, birds should choose a strategy for outcompeting rivals over securing access to prime resources at the final destination. Thus, migration can be viewed as a race among individuals where winners are arriving first when conditions are suitable. The sprint migration hypothesis predicts that individuals shift from maximum sustained speed to a final burst of sprint to shorten the transition from migration to breeding (Alerstam, 2006). In this study, we test the hypothesis of a final sprint migration in a long-distance Afro-Palearctic migrant, the collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis, during autumn and spring, and compare migration strategies between the seasons. In both seasons, collared flycatchers evidently exhibited sprint migration by increasing their overall speed over the last leg of migration after the Sahara crossing. This phenomenon was more pronounced in spring, contributing to overall faster spring migration and possibly highlighting higher importance for early arrival at the breeding grounds. In both seasons and particularly in spring, late departing individuals flew at a faster rate, partially being able to catch up with their early departing conspecifics. Differential fueling strategies may play an important role in determining migration speed, especially during the early stages of the migration, and might explain the observed differences in migration speeds between late and early departing individuals. Our findings suggest competition for early arrival at the breeding and at the nonbreeding destinations alike. Sprint migration might be an appropriate strategy to gain advantage over conspecifics and settle in prime territories as well as to cope with the increasingly earlier springs at high latitudes.

Tracing changes in the diet and habitat use of black-tailed godwits in Western France, using a stable isotope approach

Western France is at the crossroads of the migratory routes of two subspecies of black-tailed godwit, Limosa limosa. After leaving Iceland, the godwit L.l. islandica Icelandic black-tailed godwit (IBTG) winters on the coast of western Europe, while the continental black-tailed godwit (CBTG) L.l. limosa can stop in France when migrating between Iberia or Africa and their main breeding grounds in the Netherlands. In this study, we analysed δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C from flight feathers and whole blood throughout the non-breeding period to trace variations in habitat use for both subspecies on the western French coast. Adults and juveniles of IBTG adopt the same feeding habitats as soon as they arrive in the study area, progressively losing the Icelandic freshwater habitat signal, and becoming clearly restricted to marine habitats in winter. Some individuals begin to move locally to freshwater habitats, joining CBTG in a stopover at the end of the wintering period in preparation for northward migration.

Relationships between vital rates and ecological traits in an avian community

Comparative studies about the relationships between vital rates and ecological traits at the community level are conspicuously lacking for most taxa because estimating vital rates requires detailed demographic data. Identifying relationships between vital rates and ecological traits could help to better understand ecological and evolutionary demographic mechanisms that lead to interspecific differences in vital rates. We use novel dynamic N-mixture models for counts to achieve this for a whole avian community comprising 53 passerine species, while simultaneously accounting for density dependence and environmental stochasticity in recruitment and survival and, importantly, correcting our inferences for imperfect detection. Demographic stochasticity is taken into account in the form of the binomial and Poisson distributions describing survival events and number of recruits. We then explore relationships between estimated demographic parameters (i.e., vital rates) and ecological traits related to migration patterns, diet, habitat and nesting location of each species. The relative importance of recruitment and adult survival as contributors to population growth varied greatly among species, and interspecific differences in vital rates partly reflected differences in ecological traits. Migratory mode was associated with interspecific differences in population growth and density dependence. Resident species had higher population growth rates than long- and short-distance migrants. We found no relationships between diet and population growth rate. Habitat differences were associated with different growth rates: alpine, wetland and farmland species had lower population growth rates than forest species. Differences in population growth rates among nesting locations showed that breeding habitat is essential for population dynamics. Our study reveals relationships between ecological traits and contributions of vital rates to population growth and suggests ways in which patterns of population growth fluctuations in a community might be determined by life history.

A time-lagged effect of conspecific density on habitat selection by snowshoe hare

Ideal free distribution theory predicts that increased conspecific density redistributes individuals to low-density, suboptimal habitat. However, possible lags in response to population density remain poorly documented. Snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) may exhibit density-dependent habitat selection due to its marked variation in population density. Based on 11 years (2004–2014) of snow tracking in Quebec (Canada), we investigated snowshoe hares’ short-term and delayed habitat selection responses to population density. We predicted that at high densities, hare distribution expands into low-density habitat, thus weakening the association between hares and high-density habitat. We surveyed hare tracks along 95 km of transects on average each year and georeferenced 14,240 tracks. We used Generalized Estimating Equations for track count per 100 m transect segment as a function of the proportion of different forest age classes (0–20 y, 20–40 y and 40–80 y) within 50 m of the segments. We used model coefficients for each age class as a measure of habitat preference, and modeled those coefficients as a function of a population density index in current and previous winters. Coefficients for 20- to 40-y-old forests were positive each year, indicating that this habitat was preferred. The association between track counts and 20- to 40-y-old forest significantly declined with density during the previous winter, suggesting that hare spread from preferred forest with a lagged response to density. To our knowledge, no previous empirical studies have documented a lagged habitat selection response to population density. Time lags offer possible explanation for documented deviations from ideal free distribution models.

Senescence and carryover effects of reproductive performance influence migration, condition, and breeding propensity in a small shorebird

Breeding propensity, the probability that an animal will attempt to breed each year, is perhaps the least understood demographic process influencing annual fecundity. Breeding propensity is ecologically complex, as associations among a variety of intrinsic and extrinsic factors may interact to affect an animal's breeding decisions. Individuals that opt not to breed can be more difficult to detect than breeders, which can (1) lead to difficulty in estimation of breeding propensity, and (2) bias other demographic parameters. We studied the effects of sex, age, and population reproductive success on the survival and breeding propensity of a migratory shorebird, the piping plover (Charadrius melodus), nesting on the Missouri River. We used a robust design Barker model to estimate true survival and breeding propensity and found survival decreased as birds aged and did so more quickly for males than females. Monthly survival during the breeding season was lower than during migration or the nonbreeding season. Males were less likely to skip breeding (range: 1-17%) than females (range: 3-26%; βsex = -0.21, 95% CI: -0.38 to -0.21), and both sexes were less likely to return to the breeding grounds following a year of high reproductive success. Birds that returned in a year following relatively high population-wide reproductive output were in poorer condition than following a year with lower reproductive output. Younger adult birds and females were more likely to migrate from the breeding area earlier than older birds and males; however, all birds stayed on the breeding grounds longer when nest survival was low, presumably because of renesting attempts. Piping plovers used a variety of environmental and demographic cues to inform their reproduction, employing strategies that could maximize fitness on average. Our results support the "disposable soma" theory of aging and follow with predictions from life history theory, exhibiting the intimate connections among the core ecological concepts of senescence, carryover effects, and life history.

The shape of density dependence in fragmented landscapes explains an inverse buffer effect in a migratory songbird

It is well known that forest fragmentation reduces fecundity in several avian species, including wood thrush, Hylocichla mustelina, a migratory songbird that has been declining for several decades. However, I found that landscape-scale density in wood thrush was lower and population declines steeper in higher quality, less-fragmented landscapes (an inverse buffer effect) than in poor quality landscapes. These patterns suggest that wood thrush was not limited by availability of breeding habitat but that declines were primarily driven by non-breeding season events. A two-season model predicts that if this hypothesis is correct, breeding population trends will be negatively related to the strength of density dependence (b') in the breeding season. To test this, a site-dependence model was used to construct fecundity-density curves and showed that landscape fragmentation affected the shape of density dependence. In good quality landscapes, the onset of strong density dependence was much more abrupt than in poorer quality landscapes and the realized strength of density dependence, b', was lower in good quality landscapes. Population trends were negatively associated with b', providing support for the non-breeding limitation hypothesis. The combination of the negative associations of trends with b' and b' with landscape quality explain the inverse buffer effect.

Population-level body condition correlates with productivity in an arctic wader, the dunlin Calidris alpina, during post-breeding migration

Weather and predation constitute the two main factors affecting the breeding success of those Arctic waders whose productivity is highly variable over the years. We tested whether reproductive success is associated with the post-breeding condition of adults, in which in ‘good’ years (with warm weather, plentiful food and low predation pressure) the condition of breeders and their productivity is high. To verify this hypothesis, we used a 10-year dataset comprising 20,792 dunlins Calidris alpina, trapped during migration at a stopover site on the southern Baltic Sea shore. Males were consistently in a slightly worse condition than females, likely due to male-biased parental investment in brood rearing. Annual productivity indices were positively correlated with the respective condition indices of breeders from the Eurasian Arctic, indicating that in ‘good’ years, despite great effort spent on reproduction, breeders leave the breeding grounds in better condition. The pattern did not hold for 1992: productivity was low, but the average condition of adults during migration was the highest noted over the decade. We suggest that the delayed effect of the Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines in 1991, could be responsible for the unexpected high condition of Arctic breeders in 1992. High population-level average condition, coupled with the low productivity could stem from severe weather caused by the volcano eruption a year before and strong predation pressure, which in turn lead to a reduced investment in reproduction. The importance of large-scale episodic phenomena, like this volcano eruption, may blur the statistical associations of wildlife with local environmental drivers.

Multilevel landscape utilization of the Siberian flying squirrel: Scale effects on species habitat use

Animals use and select habitat at multiple hierarchical levels and at different spatial scales within each level. Still, there is little knowledge on the scale effects at different spatial levels of species occupancy patterns. The objective of this study was to examine nonlinear effects and optimal-scale landscape characteristics that affect occupancy of the Siberian flying squirrel, Pteromys volans, in South- and Mid-Finland. We used presence-absence data (n = 10,032 plots of 9 ha) and novel approach to separate the effects on site-, landscape-, and regional-level occupancy patterns. Our main results were: landscape variables predicted the placement of population patches at least twice as well as they predicted the occupancy of particular sites; the clear optimal value of preferred habitat cover for species landscape-level abundance is a surprisingly low value (10% within a 4 km buffer); landscape metrics exert different effects on species occupancy and abundance in high versus low population density regions of our study area. We conclude that knowledge of regional variation in landscape utilization will be essential for successful conservation of the species. The results also support the view that large-scale landscape variables have high predictive power in explaining species abundance. Our study demonstrates the complex response of species occurrence at different levels of population configuration on landscape structure. The study also highlights the need for data in large spatial scale to increase the precision of biodiversity mapping and prediction of future trends.

Local density regulates migratory songbird reproductive success through effects on double-brooding and nest predation

Knowledge of the density-dependent processes that regulate animal populations is key to understanding, predicting, and conserving populations. In migratory birds, density-dependence is most often studied during the breeding season, yet we still lack a robust understanding of the reproductive traits through which density influences individual reproductive success. We used 27-yr of detailed, individual-level productivity data from an island-breeding population of Savannah sparrows Passerculus sandwichensis to evaluate effects of local and total annual population density on female reproductive success. Local density (number of neighbors within 50 m of a female's nest) had stronger effects on the number of young fledged than did total annual population density. Females nesting in areas of high local density were more likely to suffer nest predation and less likely to initiate and fledge a second clutch, which led to fewer young fledged in a season. Fledging fewer young subsequently decreased the likelihood of a female recruiting offspring into the breeding population in a subsequent year. Collectively, these results provide insight into the scale and reproductive mechanisms mediating density-dependent reproductive success and fitness in songbirds.

An age-dependent fitness cost of migration? Old trans-Saharan migrating spoonbills breed later than those staying in Europe, and late breeders have lower recruitment

Migration is a widespread phenomenon in the animal kingdom. On the basis of the considerable variation that exists between and within species, and even within populations, we may be able to infer the (age- and sex-specific) ecological trade-offs and constraints moulding migration systems from assessments of fitness associated with migration and wintering in different areas. During three consecutive breeding seasons, we compared the reproductive performance (timing of breeding, breeding success, chick body condition and post-fledging survival) of Eurasian spoonbills Platalea leucorodia that breed at a single breeding site in The Netherlands, but migrate different distances (c. 4,500 vs. 2,000 km, either or not crossing the Sahara) to and from wintering areas in southern Europe and West Africa. Using mark-recapture analysis, we further investigated whether survival until adulthood (recruitment probability) of chicks hatched between 2006 and 2010 was related to their hatch date and body condition. Long-distance migrants bred later, particularly the males, and raised chicks of poorer body condition than short-distance migrants. Hatch dates strongly advanced with increasing age in short-distance migrants, but hardly advanced in long-distance migrants, causing the difference in timing of breeding between long- and short-distance migrants to be more pronounced among older birds. Breeding success and chick body condition decreased over the season, and chicks that fledged late in the season or in poor condition were less likely to survive until adulthood. As a result, long-distance migrants-particularly the males and older birds-likely recruit fewer offspring into the breeding population than short-distance migrants. This inference is important for predicting the population-level consequences of changes in winter habitat suitability throughout the wintering range. Assuming that the long-distance migrants-being the birds that occupy the traditional wintering areas-are not the poorer quality birds, and that the observed age-dependent patterns in timing of breeding are driven by within-individual effects and not by selective disappearance, our results suggest that the strategy of long-distance migration, involving the crossing of the Sahara to winter in West Africa, incurred a cost by reducing reproductive output, albeit a cost paid only later in life.

Fuel loads acquired at a stopover site influence the pace of intercontinental migration in a boreal songbird

Long-distance migratory organisms are under strong selection to migrate quickly. Stopovers demand more time than flying and are used by individuals to refuel during migration, but the effect of fuel loads (fat) acquired at stopover sites on the subsequent pace of migration has not been quantified. We studied stopover behaviour of Grey-cheeked Thrush (Catharus minimus) at a site in northern Colombia and then tracked their migration using an intercontinental radio-telemetry array. Tracking confirmed long-distance flights of more than 3000 km, highlighting the key importance of a single stopover site to the migration strategy of this species. Our results suggest that these songbirds behave as time-minimizers as predicted by optimal migration theory, and that fuel loads acquired at this South American stopover site, together with departure date, carry-over to influence the pace of migration, contributing to differences in travel time of up to 30 days in birds subsequently detected in the U. S. and Canada. Such variation in the pace of migration arising from a single stopover site, likely has important fitness consequences and suggests that identifying important fuelling sites will be essential to effectively conserve migratory species.

Winter temperatures limit population growth rate of a migratory songbird

Understanding the factors that limit and regulate wildlife populations requires insight into demographic and environmental processes acting throughout the annual cycle. Here, we combine multi-year tracking data of individual birds with a 26-year demographic study of a migratory songbird to evaluate the relative effects of density and weather at the breeding and wintering grounds on population growth rate. Our results reveal clear support for opposing forces of winter temperature and breeding density driving population dynamics. Above-average temperatures at the wintering grounds lead to higher population growth, primarily through their strong positive effects on survival. However, population growth is regulated over the long term by strong negative effects of breeding density on both fecundity and adult male survival. Such knowledge of how year-round factors influence population growth, and the demographic mechanisms through which they act, will vastly improve our ability to predict species responses to environmental change and develop effective conservation strategies for migratory animals.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.

Seasonal survival estimation for a long-distance migratory bird and the influence of winter precipitation

Conservation of migratory animals requires information about seasonal survival rates. Identifying factors that limit populations, and the portions of the annual cycle in which they occur, are critical for recognizing and reducing potential threats. However, such data are lacking for virtually all migratory taxa. We investigated patterns and environmental correlates of annual, oversummer, overwinter, and migratory survival for adult male Kirtland's warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii), an endangered, long-distance migratory songbird. We used Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to analyze two mark-recapture datasets: 2006-2011 on Michigan breeding grounds, and 2003-2010 on Bahamian wintering grounds. The mean annual survival probability was 0.58 ± 0.12 SE. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer and winter stationary periods were relatively high (0.963 ± 0.005 SE and 0.977 ± 0.002 SE, respectively). Monthly survival probability during migratory periods was substantially lower (0.879 ± 0.05 SE), accounting for ~44% of all annual mortality. March rainfall in the Bahamas was the best-supported predictor of annual survival probability and was positively correlated with apparent annual survival in the subsequent year, suggesting that the effects of winter precipitation carried over to influence survival probability of individuals in later seasons. Projection modeling revealed that a decrease in Bahamas March rainfall >12.4% from its current mean could result in negative population growth in this species. Collectively, our results suggest that increased drought during the non-breeding season, which is predicted to occur under multiple climate change scenarios, could have important consequences on the annual survival and population growth rate of Kirtland's warbler and other Neotropical-Nearctic migratory bird species.

Demographic drivers of decline and recovery in an Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird population

Across Europe, rapid population declines are ongoing in many Afro-Palaearctic migratory bird species, but the development of appropriate conservation actions across such large migratory ranges is severely constrained by lack of understanding of the demographic drivers of these declines. By constructing regional integrated population models (IPMs) for one of the suite of migratory species that is declining in the southeast of Britain but increasing in the northwest, we show that, while annual population growth rates in both regions vary with adult survival, the divergent regional trajectories are primarily a consequence of differences in productivity. Between 1994 and 2012, annual survival and productivity rates ranged over similar levels in both regions, but high productivity rates were rarer in the declining southeast population and never coincided with high survival rates. By contrast, population growth in the northwest was fuelled by several years in which higher productivity coincided with high survival rates. Simulated population trajectories suggest that realistic improvements in productivity could have reversed the decline (i.e. recovery of the population index to more than or equal to 1) in the southeast. Consequently, actions to improve productivity on European breeding grounds are likely to be a more fruitful and achievable means of reversing migrant declines than actions to improve survival on breeding, passage or sub-Saharan wintering grounds.

Morphometrics and stable isotopes differentiate wintering populations of a migratory bird

BACKGROUND

Describing migratory connectivity in mobile animals is crucial for understanding the selective pressures acting on different populations throughout their life cycle. Tracking single individuals has provided valuable data, but for most species the data available are still spurious and usually limited to a few individuals. Since different populations of migratory birds can be distinguished by a combination of morphometric measurements and the isotopic composition of their feathers, it is possible to measure these parameters on a large sample to differentiate populations.

METHODS

We studied northern wheatears, Oenanthe oenanthe, captured in their African wintering range and applied discriminant analyses on morphometric measurements and stable isotope signatures to determine whether birds found in different areas were distinguishable from each other.

RESULTS

Morphometric and isotopic measurements alone were not sufficient to discriminate between the birds of ssp. oenanthe from different areas in Africa. When combining the two measurements, however, assignment to the different groups became substantially more accurate. Following the discriminant analysis of morphometrics and δ(2)H, δ(13)C, and δ(15)N isotopes signatures, 19 of 20 oenanthe from Kenya, 15 of 20 oenanthe from Mali/Mauritania, and 19 of 20 oenanthe from Niger were assigned correctly to their wintering area.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that birds at different wintering sites can be distinguished from each other when using a combination of markers. We discuss the possible breeding origins of these wintering birds.

Non-breeding season habitat quality mediates the strength of density-dependence for a migratory bird

Our understanding of when natural populations are regulated during their annual cycle is limited, particularly for migratory species. This information is needed for parametrizing models that can inform management and conservation. Here, we use 14 years of data on colour-marked birds to investigate how conspecific density and habitat quality during the tropical non-breeding period interact to affect body condition and apparent annual survival of a long-distance migratory songbird, the American redstart (Setophagaruticilla). Body condition and survival of birds in high-quality mangrove habitat declined as density increased. By contrast, body condition improved and survival did not vary as density increased in adjacent, lower quality scrub habitat, although mean condition and survival were almost always lower than in mangrove. High rainfall enhanced body condition in scrub but not in mangrove, suggesting factors such as food availability outweighed consequences of crowding in lower quality habitat. Thus, survival of overwintering redstarts in mangrove habitat, disproportionately males,appears to be regulated by a crowding mechanism based on density-dependent resource competition. Survival of individuals in scrub, mostly females, appears to be limited by density-independent environmental factors but not regulated by crowding. The contrasting effects of density and food limitation on individuals overwintering in adjacent habitats illustrate the complexity of processes operating during the non-breeding period for migratory animals, and emphasize the need for long-term studies of animals in multiple habitats and throughout their annual cycles.

Usefulness of Species Traits in Predicting Range Shifts

Information on the ecological traits of species might improve predictions of climate-driven range shifts. However, the usefulness of traits is usually assumed rather than quantified. Here, we present a framework to identify the most informative traits, based on four key range-shift processes: emigration of individuals or propagules away from the natal location; the distance a species can move; establishment of self-sustaining populations; and proliferation following establishment. We propose a framework that categorises traits according to their contribution to range-shift processes. We demonstrate how the framework enables the predictive value of traits to be evaluated empirically and how this categorisation can be used to better understand range-shift processes; we also illustrate how range-shift estimates can be improved.

Rapid warming and drought negatively impact population size and reproductive dynamics of an avian predator in the arid southwest

Avian communities of arid ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to global climate change due to the magnitude of projected change for desert regions and the inherent challenges for species residing in resource limited ecosystems. How arid-zone birds will be affected by rapid increases in air temperature and increased drought frequency and severity is poorly understood because avian responses to climate change have primarily been studied in the relatively mesic northern temperate regions. We studied the effects of increasing air temperature and aridity on a Burrowing Owl (Athene cunicularia) population in the southwestern United States from 1998 to 2013. Over 16 years, the breeding population declined 98.1%, from 52 pairs to 1 pair, and nest success and fledgling output also declined significantly. These trends were strongly associated with the combined effects of decreased precipitation and increased air temperature. Arrival on the breeding grounds, pair formation, nest initiation, and hatch dates all showed significant delays ranging from 9.4 to 25.1 days over 9 years, which have negative effects on reproduction. Adult and juvenile body mass decreased significantly over time, with a loss of 7.9% mass in adult males and 10.9% mass in adult females over 16 years, and a loss of 20.0% mass in nestlings over 8 years. Taken together, these population and reproductive trends have serious implications for local population persistence. The southwestern United States has been identified as a climate change hotspot, with projections of warmer temperatures, less winter precipitation, and an increase in frequency and severity of extreme events including drought and heat waves. An increasingly warm and dry climate may contribute to this species' decline and may already be a driving force of their apparent decline in the desert southwest.

Latitudinal-Related Variation in Wintering Population Trends of Greylag Geese (Anser Anser) along the Atlantic Flyway: A Response to Climate Change?

The unusually high quality of census data for large waterbirds in Europe facilitates the study of how population change varies across a broad geographical range and relates to global change. The wintering population of the greylag goose Anser anser in the Atlantic flyway spanning between Sweden and Spain has increased from 120 000 to 610 000 individuals over the past three decades, and expanded its wintering range northwards. Although population sizes recorded in January have increased in all seven countries in the wintering range, we found a pronounced northwards latitudinal effect in which the rate of increase is higher at greater latitudes, causing a constant shift in the centre of gravity for the spatial distribution of wintering geese. Local winter temperatures have a strong influence on goose numbers but in a manner that is also dependent on latitude, with the partial effect of temperature (while controlling for the increasing population trend between years) being negative at the south end and positive at the north end of the flyway. Contrary to assumptions in the literature, the expansion of crops exploited by greylag geese has made little contribution to the increases in population size. Only in one case (expansion of winter cereals in Denmark) did we find evidence of an effect of changing land use. The expanding and shifting greylag population is likely to have increasing impacts on habitats in northern Europe during the course of this century.

Prey type and foraging ecology of Sanderlings Calidris alba in different climate zones: are tropical areas more favourable than temperate sites?

Sanderlings (Calidris alba) are long-distance migratory shorebirds with a non-breeding range that spans temperate and tropical coastal habitats. Breeding in the High Arctic combined with non-breeding seasons in the tropics necessitate long migrations, which are energetically demanding. On an annual basis, the higher energy expenditures during migration might pay off if food availability in the tropics is higher than at temperate latitudes. We compared foraging behaviour of birds at a north temperate and a tropical non-breeding site in the Netherlands and Ghana, respectively. In both cases the birds used similar habitats (open beaches), and experienced similar periods of daylight, which enabled us to compare food abundance and availability, and behavioural time budgets and food intake. During the non-breeding season, Sanderlings in the Netherlands spent 79% of their day foraging; in Ghana birds spent only 38% of the daytime period foraging and the largest proportion of their time resting (58%). The main prey item in the Netherlands was the soft-bodied polychaete Scolelepis squamata, while Sanderlings in Ghana fed almost exclusively on the bivalve Donax pulchellus, which they swallowed whole and crushed internally. Average availability of polychaete worms in the Netherlands was 7.4 g ash free dry mass (AFDM) m⁻², which was one tenth of the 77.1 g AFDM m⁻² estimated for the beach in Ghana. In the tropical environment of Ghana the Sanderlings combined relatively low energy requirements with high prey intake rates (1.64 mg opposed to 0.13 mg AFDM s⁻¹ for Ghana and the Netherlands respectively). Although this may suggest that the Ghana beaches are the most favourable environment, processing the hard-shelled bivalve (D. pulchellus) which is the staple food could be costly. The large amount of daytime spent resting in Ghana may be indicative of the time needed to process the shell fragments, rather than indicate rest.

Evidence for the buffer effect operating in multiple species at a national scale

A long-standing aim of ecologists is to understand the processes involved in regulating populations. One such mechanism is the buffer effect, where lower quality habitats are increasingly used as a species reaches higher population densities, with a resultant average reduction in fecundity and survival limiting population growth. Although the buffer effect has been demonstrated in populations of a number of species, a test of its importance in influencing population growth rates of multiple species across large spatial scales is lacking. Here, we use habitat-specific population trends for 85 bird species from long-term national monitoring data (the UK Breeding Bird Survey) to examine its generality. We find that both patterns of population change and changes in habitat preference are consistent with the predictions of the buffer effect, providing support for its widespread operation.