Low-coverage vaccination strategies for the conservation of endangered species

The one health perspective to improve environmental surveillance of zoonotic viruses: lessons from COVID-19 and outlook beyond

The human population has doubled in the last 50 years from about 3.7 billion to approximately 7.8 billion. With this rapid expansion, more people live in close contact with wildlife, livestock, and pets, which in turn creates increasing opportunities for zoonotic diseases to pass between animals and people. At present an estimated 75% of all emerging virus-associated infectious diseases possess a zoonotic origin, and outbreaks of Zika, Ebola and COVID-19 in the past decade showed their huge disruptive potential on the global economy. Here, we describe how One Health inspired environmental surveillance campaigns have emerged as the preferred tools to monitor human-adjacent environments for known and yet to be discovered infectious diseases, and how they can complement classical clinical diagnostics. We highlight the importance of environmental factors concerning interactions between animals, pathogens and/or humans that drive the emergence of zoonoses, and the methodologies currently proposed to monitor them-the surveillance of wastewater, for example, was identified as one of the main tools to assess the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by public health professionals and policy makers during the COVID-19 pandemic. One-Health driven approaches that facilitate surveillance, thus harbour the potential of preparing humanity for future pandemics caused by aetiological agents with environmental reservoirs. Via the example of COVID-19 and other viral diseases, we propose that wastewater surveillance is a useful complement to clinical diagnosis as it is centralized, robust, cost-effective, and relatively easy to implement.

Contributions of distemper control and habitat expansion to the Amur leopard viability

The Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) is a critically endangered top predator that struggles on the brink of extinction due to threats such as canine distemper virus (CDV), habitat loss, and inbreeding depression. Here we develop a viability analysis metamodel that combines a traditional individual-based demographic model with an epidemiological model to assess the benefits of alternative population management actions in response to multiple distinct threats. Our results showed an extinction risk of 10.3%-99.9% if no management actions were taken over 100 years under different levels of inbreeding depression. Reducing the risk of CDV infection in Amur leopards through the low-coverage vaccination of leopards and the management of sympatric domestic dogs could effectively improve the survival probability of the leopard population, and with habitat expansion added to these management measures, the population expanded further. Our findings highlight that protecting the Amur leopard necessitates a multifaceted synergistic effort, and controlling multiple threats together may significantly escalate overall viability of a species, especially for small-isolated threatened population. More broadly, our modeling framework could offer critical perspectives and scientific support for conservation planning, as well as specific adaptive management actions for endangered species around the world.

In the absence of management strategies, canine distemper virus threatens the future existence of the endangered Amur leopard.

Apathogenic proxies for transmission dynamics of a fatal virus

Identifying drivers of transmission-especially of emerging pathogens-is a formidable challenge for proactive disease management efforts. While close social interactions can be associated with microbial sharing between individuals, and thereby imply dynamics important for transmission, such associations can be obscured by the influences of factors such as shared diets or environments. Directly-transmitted viral agents, specifically those that are rapidly evolving such as many RNA viruses, can allow for high-resolution inference of transmission, and therefore hold promise for elucidating not only which individuals transmit to each other, but also drivers of those transmission events. Here, we tested a novel approach in the Florida panther, which is affected by several directly-transmitted feline retroviruses. We first inferred the transmission network for an apathogenic, directly-transmitted retrovirus, feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV), and then used exponential random graph models to determine drivers structuring this network. We then evaluated the utility of these drivers in predicting transmission of the analogously transmitted, pathogenic agent, feline leukemia virus (FeLV), and compared FIV-based predictions of outbreak dynamics against empirical FeLV outbreak data. FIV transmission was primarily driven by panther age class and distances between panther home range centroids. FIV-based modeling predicted FeLV dynamics similarly to common modeling approaches, but with evidence that FIV-based predictions captured the spatial structuring of the observed FeLV outbreak. While FIV-based predictions of FeLV transmission performed only marginally better than standard approaches, our results highlight the value of proactively identifying drivers of transmission-even based on analogously-transmitted, apathogenic agents-in order to predict transmission of emerging infectious agents. The identification of underlying drivers of transmission, such as through our workflow here, therefore holds promise for improving predictions of pathogen transmission in novel host populations, and could provide new strategies for proactive pathogen management in human and animal systems.

Optimizing management of invasions in an uncertain world using dynamic spatial models

Dispersal drives invasion dynamics of nonnative species and pathogens. Applying knowledge of dispersal to optimize the management of invasions can mean the difference between a failed and a successful control program and dramatically improve the return on investment of control efforts. A common approach to identifying optimal management solutions for invasions is to optimize dynamic spatial models that incorporate dispersal. Optimizing these spatial models can be very challenging because the interaction of time, space, and uncertainty rapidly amplifies the number of dimensions being considered. Addressing such problems requires advances in and the integration of techniques from multiple fields, including ecology, decision analysis, bioeconomics, natural resource management, and optimization. By synthesizing recent advances from these diverse fields, we provide a workflow for applying ecological theory to advance optimal management science and highlight priorities for optimizing the control of invasions. One of the striking gaps we identify is the extremely limited consideration of dispersal uncertainty in optimal management frameworks, even though dispersal estimates are highly uncertain and greatly influence invasion outcomes. In addition, optimization frameworks rarely consider multiple types of uncertainty (we describe five major types) and their interrelationships. Thus, feedbacks from management or other sources that could magnify uncertainty in dispersal are rarely considered. Incorporating uncertainty is crucial for improving transparency in decision risks and identifying optimal management strategies. We discuss gaps and solutions to the challenges of optimization using dynamic spatial models to increase the practical application of these important tools and improve the consistency and robustness of management recommendations for invasions.

Accounting for animal movement improves vaccination strategies against wildlife disease in heterogeneous landscapes

Oral baiting is used to deliver vaccines to wildlife to prevent, control, and eliminate infectious diseases. A central challenge is how to spatially distribute baits to maximize encounters by target animal populations, particularly in urban and suburban areas where wildlife such as raccoons (Procyon lotor) are abundant and baits are delivered along roads. Methods from movement ecology that quantify movement and habitat selection could help to optimize baiting strategies by more effectively targeting wildlife populations across space. We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model of raccoon movement and oral rabies vaccine seroconversion to examine whether and when baiting strategies that match raccoon movement patterns perform better than currently used baiting strategies in an oral rabies vaccination zone in greater Burlington, Vermont, USA. Habitat selection patterns estimated from locally radio-collared raccoons were used to parameterize movement simulations. We then used our simulations to estimate raccoon population rabies seroprevalence under currently used baiting strategies (actual baiting) relative to habitat selection-based baiting strategies (habitat baiting). We conducted simulations on the Burlington landscape and artificial landscapes that varied in heterogeneity relative to Burlington in the proportion and patch size of preferred habitats. We found that the benefits of habitat baiting strongly depended on the magnitude and variability of raccoon habitat selection and the degree of landscape heterogeneity within the baiting area. Habitat baiting improved seroprevalence over actual baiting for raccoons characterized as habitat specialists but not for raccoons that displayed weak habitat selection similar to radiocollared individuals, except when baits were delivered off roads where preferred habitat coverage and complexity was more pronounced. In contrast, in artificial landscapes with either more strongly juxtaposed favored habitats and/or higher proportions of favored habitats, habitat baiting performed better than actual baiting, even when raccoons displayed weak habitat preferences and where baiting was constrained to roads. Our results suggest that habitat selection-based baiting could increase raccoon population seroprevalence in urban-suburban areas, where practical, given the heterogeneity and availability of preferred habitat types in those areas. Our novel simulation approach provides a flexible framework to test alternative baiting strategies in multiclass landscapes to optimize bait-distribution strategies.

Antibody response to Raboral VR-G® oral rabies vaccine in captive and free-ranging black-backed jackals (Canis mesomelas)

Rabies is a zoonotic disease that remains endemic in large parts of southern Africa because of its persistence in wildlife and domestic dog vectors. The black-backed jackals (Canis mesomelas) is primarily the wildlife vector responsible for rabies outbreaks in northern parts of South Africa. Two trials were carried out to investigate antibody responses to the oral rabies vaccine Raboral V-RG® in black-backed jackals under captive and free-ranging conditions. In captive jackals 10/12 (83%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 52% - 98%), seroconverted after single oral vaccination. Nine captive jackals had protective antibody titres ( 0.5 IU/mL) at 4 weeks (median: 2.1 IU/mL; inter quartile range [IQR]: 0.6-5.7) and 10 jackals had at 12 weeks (median: 3.5 IU/mL; IQR: 1.5-8.3) and three maintained antibody titres for up to 48 weeks (median: 3.4 IU/mL; IQR: 2.0-6.3). Four sites were baited with Raboral V-RG® vaccine for wild jackals, using fishmeal polymer and chicken heads. Baits were distributed by hand or from vehicle at three sites in north-eastern South Africa, with an average baiting density of 4.4 baits/km2 and at one site in central South Africa, at 0.12 baits/km2. This resulted in protective antibody titres in 3/11 jackals (27%; 95% Cl: 6-61) trapped between 3 and 12 months after baiting in north-eastern South Africa, compared with 4/7 jackals (57%; 95% Cl: 18-90) trapped after 3-18 months in central South Africa. This study shows the potential utility of oral rabies vaccination for the control of wildlife-associated rabies in north-eastern and central South Africa, but extensive studies with wider distribution of bait are needed to assess its potential impact on rabies control in wild jackals.

Targeted strategies for the management of wildlife diseases: the case of brucellosis in Alpine ibex

The management of infectious diseases in wildlife reservoirs is challenging and faces several limitations. However, detailed knowledge of host-pathogen systems often reveal heterogeneity among the hosts' contribution to transmission. Management strategies targeting specific classes of individuals and/or areas, having a particular role in transmission, could be more effective and more acceptable than population-wide interventions. In the wild population of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex-a protected species) of the Bargy massif (French Alps), females transmit brucellosis (Brucella melitensis) infection in ~90% of cases, and most transmissions occur in the central spatial units ("core area"). Therefore, we expanded an individual-based model, developed in a previous study, to test whether strategies targeting females or the core area, or both, would be more effective. We simulated the relative efficacy of realistic strategies for the studied population, combining test-and-remove (euthanasia of captured animals with seropositive test results) and partial culling of unmarked animals. Targeting females or the core area was more effective than untargeted management options, and strategies targeting both were even more effective. Interestingly, the number of ibex euthanized and culled in targeted strategies were lower than in untargeted ones, thus decreasing the conservation costs while increasing the sanitary benefits. Although there was no silver bullet for the management of brucellosis in the studied population, targeted strategies offered a wide range of promising refinements to classical sanitary measures. We therefore encourage to look for heterogeneity in other wildlife diseases and to evaluate potential strategies for improving management in terms of efficacy but also acceptability.

Transient disease dynamics across ecological scales

Analyses of transient dynamics are critical to understanding infectious disease transmission and persistence. Identifying and predicting transients across scales, from within-host to community-level patterns, plays an important role in combating ongoing epidemics and mitigating the risk of future outbreaks. Moreover, greater emphases on non-asymptotic processes will enable timely evaluations of wildlife and human diseases and lead to improved surveillance efforts, preventive responses, and intervention strategies. Here, we explore the contributions of transient analyses in recent models spanning the fields of epidemiology, movement ecology, and parasitology. In addition to their roles in predicting epidemic patterns and endemic outbreaks, we explore transients in the contexts of pathogen transmission, resistance, and avoidance at various scales of the ecological hierarchy. Examples illustrate how (i) transient movement dynamics at the individual host level can modify opportunities for transmission events over time; (ii) within-host energetic processes often lead to transient dynamics in immunity, pathogen load, and transmission potential; (iii) transient connectivity between discrete populations in response to environmental factors and outbreak dynamics can affect disease spread across spatial networks; and (iv) increasing species richness in a community can provide transient protection to individuals against infection. Ultimately, we suggest that transient analyses offer deeper insights and raise new, interdisciplinary questions for disease research, consequently broadening the applications of dynamical models for outbreak preparedness and management.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12080-021-00514-w.

Distemper, extinction, and vaccination of the Amur tiger

Canine distemper virus (CDV) has recently emerged as an extinction threat for the endangered Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica). CDV is vaccine-preventable, and control strategies could require vaccination of domestic dogs and/or wildlife populations. However, vaccination of endangered wildlife remains controversial, which has led to a focus on interventions in domestic dogs, often assumed to be the source of infection. Effective decision making requires an understanding of the true reservoir dynamics, which poses substantial challenges in remote areas with diverse host communities. We carried out serological, demographic, and phylogenetic studies of dog and wildlife populations in the Russian Far East to show that a number of wildlife species are more important than dogs, both in maintaining CDV and as sources of infection for tigers. Critically, therefore, because CDV circulates among multiple wildlife sources, dog vaccination alone would not be effective at protecting tigers. We show, however, that low-coverage vaccination of tigers themselves is feasible and would produce substantive reductions in extinction risks. Vaccination of endangered wildlife provides a valuable component of conservation strategies for endangered species.

Pneumonia in endangered aquatic mammals and the need for developing low-coverage vaccination for their management and conservation

Anthropogenic activities can lead to several devastating effects on the environment. The pollutants, which include the discharge of effluents, runoffs in the form of different lethal and sub-lethal concentrations of pesticides, heavy metals, and other contaminants, can harm exposed fauna and flora. The aquatic environment is the ultimate destination for many pollutants which negatively affect aquatic biodiversity and even can cause a species to become extinct. A pollutant can directly affect the behavior of an animal, disrupt cellular systems, and impair the immune system. This harm can be reduced and even mitigated by adopting proper approaches for the conservation of the target biota. Among aquatic organisms, cetaceans, such as the Yangtze finless porpoise, Irrawaddy dolphin, Ganges River dolphin, Amazon River dolphin, and Indus River dolphin, are at a higher risk of extinction because of lack of knowledge and research, and thus insufficient information with respect to their conservation status, management, and policies. Pneumonia is one of the leading causes of mass mortalities of cetaceans. This article reviews the limited research reported on stress and pneumonia induced by pollution, stress-induced pneumonia and immunosuppression, pneumonia-caused mass mortalities of aquatic mammals, and vaccination in wildlife with a specific focus on aquatic mammals, the role of genomics in vaccine development and vaccination, and the major challenges in vaccine development for biodiversity conservation.

Significant reductions of host abundance weakly impact infection intensity of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

Infectious diseases are considered major threats to biodiversity, however strategies to mitigate their impacts in the natural world are scarce and largely unsuccessful. Chytridiomycosis is responsible for the decline of hundreds of amphibian species worldwide, but an effective disease management strategy that could be applied across natural habitats is still lacking. In general amphibian larvae can be easily captured, offering opportunities to ascertain the impact of altering the abundance of hosts, considered to be a key parameter affecting the severity of the disease. Here, we report the results of two experiments to investigate how altering host abundance affects infection intensity in amphibian populations of a montane area of Central Spain suffering from lethal amphibian chytridiomycosis. Our laboratory-based experiment supported the conclusion that varying density had a significant effect on infection intensity when salamander larvae were housed at low densities. Our field experiment showed that reducing the abundance of salamander larvae in the field also had a significant, but weak, impact on infection the following year, but only when removals were extreme. While this suggests adjusting host abundance as a mitigation strategy to reduce infection intensity could be useful, our evidence suggests only heavy culling efforts will succeed, which may run contrary to objectives for conservation.

Ecological and Evolutionary Challenges for Wildlife Vaccination

Wildlife vaccination is of urgent interest to reduce disease-induced extinction and zoonotic spillover events. However, several challenges complicate its application to wildlife. For example, vaccines rarely provide perfect immunity. While some protection may seem better than none, imperfect vaccination can present epidemiological, ecological, and evolutionary challenges. While anti-infection and antitransmission vaccines reduce parasite transmission, antidisease vaccines may undermine herd immunity, select for increased virulence, or promote spillover. These imperfections interact with ecological and logistical constraints that are magnified in wildlife, such as poor control and substantial trait variation within and among species. Ultimately, we recommend approaches such as trait-based vaccination, modeling tools, and methods to assess community- and ecosystem-level vaccine safety to address these concerns and bolster wildlife vaccination campaigns.

Optimal spatial prioritization of control resources for elimination of invasive species under demographic uncertainty

Populations of invasive species often spread heterogeneously across a landscape, consisting of local populations that cluster in space but are connected by dispersal. A fundamental dilemma for invasive species control is how to optimally allocate limited fiscal resources across local populations. Theoretical work based on perfect knowledge of demographic connectivity suggests that targeting local populations from which migrants originate (sources) can be optimal. However, demographic processes such as abundance and dispersal can be highly uncertain, and the relationship between local population density and damage costs (damage function) is rarely known. We used a metapopulation model to understand how budget and uncertainty in abundance, connectivity, and the damage function, together impact return on investment (ROI) for optimal control strategies. Budget, observational uncertainty, and the damage function had strong effects on the optimal resource allocation strategy. Uncertainty in dispersal probability was the least important determinant of ROI. The damage function determined which resource prioritization strategy was optimal when connectivity was symmetric but not when it was asymmetric. When connectivity was asymmetric, prioritizing source populations had a higher ROI than allocating effort equally across local populations, regardless of the damage function, but uncertainty in connectivity structure and abundance reduced ROI of the optimal prioritization strategy by 57% on average depending on the control budget. With low budgets (monthly removal rate of 6.7% of population), there was little advantage to prioritizing resources, especially when connectivity was high or symmetric, and observational uncertainty had only minor effects on ROI. Allotting funding for improved monitoring appeared to be most important when budgets were moderate (monthly removal of 13-20% of the population). Our result showed that multiple sources of observational uncertainty should be considered concurrently for optimizing ROI. Accurate estimates of connectivity direction and abundance were more important than accurate estimates of dispersal rates. Developing cost-effective surveillance methods to reduce observational uncertainties, and quantitative frameworks for determining how resources should be spatially apportioned to multiple monitoring and control activities are important and challenging future directions for optimizing ROI for invasive species control programs.

A systemic approach to assess the potential and risks of wildlife culling for infectious disease control

The maintenance of infectious diseases requires a sufficient number of susceptible hosts. Host culling is a potential control strategy for animal diseases. However, the reduction in biodiversity and increasing public concerns regarding the involved ethical issues have progressively challenged the use of wildlife culling. Here, we assess the potential of wildlife culling as an epidemiologically sound management tool, by examining the host ecology, pathogen characteristics, eco-sociological contexts, and field work constraints. We also discuss alternative solutions and make recommendations for the appropriate implementation of culling for disease control.

Variation in host home range size decreases rabies vaccination effectiveness by increasing the spatial spread of rabies virus

Animal movement influences the spatial spread of directly transmitted wildlife disease through host-host contact structure. Wildlife disease hosts vary in home range-associated foraging and social behaviours, which may increase the spread and intensity of disease outbreaks. The consequences of variation in host home range movement and space use on wildlife disease dynamics are poorly understood, but could help to predict disease spread and determine more effective disease management strategies. We developed a spatially explicit individual-based model to examine the effect of spatiotemporal variation in host home range size on the spatial spread rate, persistence and incidence of rabies virus (RABV) in raccoons (Procyon lotor). We tested the hypothesis that variation in home range size increases RABV spread and decreases vaccination effectiveness in host populations following pathogen invasion into a vaccination zone. We simulated raccoon demography and RABV dynamics across a range of magnitudes and variances in weekly home range size for raccoons. We examined how variable home range size influenced the relative effectiveness of three components of oral rabies vaccination (ORV) programmes targeting raccoons-timing and frequency of bait delivery, width of the ORV zone and proportion of hosts immunized. Variability in weekly home range size increased RABV spread rates by 1.2-fold to 5.2-fold compared to simulations that assumed a fixed home range size. More variable host home range sizes decreased relative vaccination effectiveness by 71% compared to less variable host home range sizes under conventional vaccination conditions. We found that vaccination timing was more influential for vaccination effectiveness than vaccination frequency or vaccination zone width. Our results suggest that variation in wildlife home range movement behaviour increases the spatial spread and incidence of RABV. Our vaccination results underscore the importance of prioritizing individual-level space use and movement data collection to understand wildlife disease dynamics and plan their effective control and elimination.

Vaccination and monitoring strategies for epidemic prevention and detection in the Channel Island fox (Urocyon littoralis)

Disease transmission and epidemic prevention are top conservation concerns for wildlife managers, especially for small, isolated populations. Previous studies have shown that the course of an epidemic within a heterogeneous host population is strongly influenced by whether pathogens are introduced to regions of relatively high or low host densities. This raises the question of how disease monitoring and vaccination programs are influenced by spatial heterogeneity in host distributions. We addressed this question by modeling vaccination and monitoring strategies for the Channel Island fox (Urocyon littoralis), which has a history of substantial population decline due to introduced disease. We simulated various strategies to detect and prevent epidemics of rabies and canine distemper using a spatially explicit model, which was parameterized from field studies. Increasing sentinel monitoring frequency, and to a lesser degree, the number of monitored sentinels from 50 to 150 radio collared animals, reduced the time to epidemic detection and percentage of the fox population infected at the time of detection for both pathogens. Fox density at the location of pathogen introduction had little influence on the time to detection, but a large influence on how many foxes had become infected by the detection day, especially when sentinels were monitored relatively infrequently. The efficacy of different vaccination strategies was heavily influenced by local host density at the site of pathogen entry. Generally, creating a vaccine firewall far away from the site of pathogen entry was the least effective strategy. A firewall close to the site of pathogen entry was generally more effective than a random distribution of vaccinated animals when pathogens entered regions of high host density, but not when pathogens entered regions of low host density. These results highlight the importance of considering host densities at likely locations of pathogen invasion when designing disease management plans.

Age-related pharmacodynamics in a bumblebee-microsporidian system mirror similar patterns in vertebrates

Immune systems provide a key defence against diseases. However, they are not a panacea and so both vertebrates and invertebrates co-opt naturally occurring bioactive compounds to treat themselves against parasites and pathogens. In vertebrates, this co-option is complex, with pharmacodynamics leading to differential effects of treatment at different life stages, which may reflect age-linked differences in the immune system. However, our understanding of pharmacodynamics in invertebrates is almost non-existent. Critically, this knowledge may elucidate broad parallels across animals in regard to the requirement for the co-option of bioactive compounds to ameliorate disease. Here, we used biochanin A, an isoflavone found in the pollen of red clover (Trifolium pratense), to therapeutically treat Nosema bombi (Microsporidia) infection in bumblebee (Bombus terrestris) larvae and adults, and thus examine age-linked pharmacodynamics in an invertebrate. Therapeutic treatment of larvae with biochanin A did not reduce the infection intensity of N. bombi in adults. In contrast, therapeutic treatment of adults did reduce the infection intensity of N. bombi This transition in parasite resistance to bioactive compounds mirrors the age-linked pharmacodynamics of vertebrates. Understanding how different life-history stages respond to therapeutic compounds will provide novel insights into the evolution of foraging and self-medication behaviour in natural systems more broadly.

Host density drives viral, but not trypanosome, transmission in a key pollinator

Supplemental feeding of wildlife populations can locally increase the density of individuals, which may in turn impact disease dynamics. Flower strips are a widely used intervention in intensive agricultural systems to nutritionally support pollinators such as bees. Using a controlled experimental semi-field design, we asked how density impacts transmission of a virus and a trypanosome parasite in bumblebees. We manipulated bumblebee density by using different numbers of colonies within the same area of floral resource. In high-density compartments, slow bee paralysis virus was transmitted more quickly, resulting in higher prevalence and level of infection in bumblebee hosts. By contrast, there was no impact of density on the transmission of the trypanosome Crithidia bombi, which may reflect the ease with which this parasite is transmitted. These results suggest that agri-environment schemes such as flower strips, which are known to enhance the nutrition and survival of bumblebees, may also have negative impacts on pollinators through enhanced disease transmission. Future studies should assess how changing the design of these schemes could minimize disease transmission and thus maximise their health benefits to wild pollinators.

Can Community Structure Causally Determine Dynamics of Constituent Species? A Test Using a Host-Parasite Community

Structures of communities have been widely studied with the assumption that they not only are a useful bookkeeping tool but also can causally influence dynamics of the populations from which they emerge. However, convincing tests of this assumption have remained elusive because generally the only way to alter a community property is by manipulating its constituent populations, thereby preventing independent measurements of effects on those populations. There is a growing body of evidence that methods like convergent cross-mapping (CCM) can be used to make inferences about causal interactions using state space reconstructions of coupled time series, a method that relies on only observational data. Here we show that CCM can be used to test the causal effects of community properties using a well-studied Slovakian rodent-ectoparasite community. CCM identified causal drivers across the organizational scales of this community, including evidence that host dynamics were influenced by the degree to which the community at large was connected and clustered. Our findings add to the growing literature on the importance of community structures in disease dynamics and argue for a broader use of causal inference in the analysis of community dynamics.

Impacts of Heterogeneous Host Densities and Contact Rates on Pathogen Transmission in the Channel Island Fox (Urocyon littoralis)

Diseases threaten wildlife populations worldwide and have caused severe declines resulting in host species being listed as threatened or endangered. The risk of a widespread epidemic is especially high when pathogens are introduced to naive host populations, often leading to high morbidity and mortality. Prevention and control of these epidemics is based on knowledge of what drives pathogen transmission among hosts. Previous disease outbreaks suggest the spread of directly transmitted pathogens is determined by host contact rates and local host density. While theoretical models of disease spread typically assume a constant host density, most wildlife populations occur at a variety of densities across the landscape. We explored how spatial heterogeneity in host density influences pathogen spread by simulating the introduction and spread of rabies and canine distemper in a spatially heterogeneous population of Channel Island foxes (Urocyon littoralis), coupling fox density and contact rates with probabilities of viral transmission. For both diseases, the outcome of pathogen introductions varied widely among simulation iterations and depended on the density of hosts at the site of pathogen introduction. Introductions into areas of higher fox densities resulted in more rapid pathogen transmission and greater impact on the host population than if the pathogen was introduced at lower densities. Both pathogens were extirpated in a substantial fraction of iterations. Rabies was over five times more likely to go locally extinct when introduced at low host density sites than at high host-density sites, leaving an average of >99% of foxes uninfected. Canine distemper went extinct in >98% of iterations regardless of introduction site, but only after >90% of foxes had become infected. Our results highlight the difficulty in predicting the course of an epidemic, in part due to complex interactions between pathogen biology and host behavior, exacerbated by the spatial variation of most host populations.

Molecular and serological surveys of canine distemper virus: A meta-analysis of cross-sectional studies

BACKGROUND

Canine morbillivirus (canine distemper virus, CDV) persists as a serious threat to the health of domestic dogs and wildlife. Although studies have been conducted on the frequency and risk factors associated with CDV infection, there are no comprehensive data on the current epidemiological magnitude in the domestic dog population at regional and national levels. Therefore, we conducted a cross-sectional study and included our results in a meta-analysis to summarize and combine available data on the frequency and potential risk factors associated with CDV infection.

METHODS

For the cross-sectional study, biological samples from dogs suspected to have canine distemper (CD) were collected and screened for viral RNA. Briefly, the PRISMA protocol was used for the meta-analysis, and data analyses were performed using STATA IC 13.1 software.

RESULTS

CDV RNA was detected in 34% (48/141) of dogs suspected to have CD. Following our meta-analysis, 53 studies were selected for a total of 11,527 dogs. Overall, the pooled frequency of CDV positivity based on molecular and serological results were 33% (95% CI: 23-43) and 46% (95% CI: 36-57), respectively. The pooled subgroup analyses of clinical signs, types of biological samples, diagnostic methods and dog lifestyle had a wide range of CDV positivity (range 8-75%). Free-ranging dogs (OR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.05-1.97), dogs >24 months old (OR: 1.83, 95% CI: 1.1-3) and unvaccinated dogs (OR: 2.92, 95% CI: 1.26-6.77) were found to be positively associated with CDV infection. In contrast, dogs <12 months old (OR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.20-0.64) and dogs with a complete anti-CDV vaccination (OR: 0.18, 95% CI: 0.05-0.59) had a negative association.

CONCLUSION

Considering the high frequency of CDV positivity associated with almost all the variables analyzed in dogs, it is necessary to immediately and continuously plan mitigation strategies to reduce the CDV prevalence, especially in determined endemic localities.

Assessing the immunogenicity of an inactivated monovalent vaccine in the endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus)

Captive held African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) were vaccinated with a commercially available inactivated canine parvovirus (CPV) vaccine licensed for use in domestic dogs. Serological responses were recorded by testing for viral antibodies with the haemagglutination inhibition test (HAI) following a vaccination schedule involving two initial inoculations a month apart and an annual booster. Vaccines were delivered by hand injection or remotely (i.e. by dart). All naïve dogs vaccinated with Parvac® did seroconvert as determined by canine antibody titres ≥ 1:80 in one or more samples collected after inoculation. Duration of immunity (DOI) within the first year persisted for approximately 98 days only. To enable greater immunological protection revaccination should occur more frequently than once in a calendar year. No significant differences in the seroprotection rate were observed when comparing route of administration.

Exposure of breeding albatrosses to the agent of avian cholera: dynamics of antibody levels and ecological implications

Despite critical implications for disease dynamics and surveillance in wild long-lived species, the immune response after exposure to potentially highly pathogenic bacterial disease agents is still poorly known. Among infectious diseases threatening wild populations, avian cholera, caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida, is a major concern. It frequently causes massive mortality events in wild populations, notably affecting nestlings of Indian yellow-nosed albatrosses (Thalassarche carteri) in the Indian Ocean. If adults are able to mount a long-term immune response, this could have important consequences regarding the dynamics of the pathogen in the local host community and the potential interest of vaccinating breeding females to transfer immunity to their offspring. By tracking the dynamics of antibodies against P. multocida during 4 years and implementing a vaccination experiment in a population of yellow-nosed albatrosses, we show that a significant proportion of adults were naturally exposed despite high annual survival for both vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals. Adult-specific antibody levels were thus maintained long enough to inform about recent exposure. However, only low levels of maternal antibodies could be detected in nestlings the year following a vaccination of their mothers. A modification of the vaccine formulation and the possibility to re-vaccinate females 2 years after the first vaccination revealed that vaccines have the potential to elicit a stronger and more persistent response. Such results highlight the value of long-term observational and experimental studies of host exposure to infectious agents in the wild, where ecological and evolutionary processes are likely critical for driving disease dynamics.

Demographic stochasticity drives epidemiological patterns in wildlife with implications for diseases and population management

Infectious diseases raise many concerns for wildlife and new insights must be gained to manage infected populations. Wild ungulates provide opportunities to gain such insights as they host many pathogens. Using modelling and data collected from an intensively monitored population of Pyrenean chamois, we investigated the role of stochastic processes in governing epidemiological patterns of pestivirus spread in both protected and hunted populations. We showed that demographic stochasticity led to three epidemiological outcomes: early infection fade-out, epidemic outbreaks with population collapse, either followed by virus extinction or by endemic situations. Without re-introduction, the virus faded out in >50% of replications within 4 years and did not persist >20 years. Test-and-cull of infected animals and vaccination had limited effects relative to the efforts devoted, especially in hunted populations in which only quota reduction somewhat improve population recovery. Success of these strategies also relied on the maintenance of a high level of surveillance of hunter-harvested animals. Our findings suggested that, while surveillance and maintenance of population levels at intermediate densities to avoid large epidemics are useful at any time, a 'do nothing' approach during epidemics could be the 'least bad' management strategy in populations of ungulates species facing pestivirus infection.

Rabies and Distemper Outbreaks in Smallest Ethiopian Wolf Population

Widespread deaths recently devastated the smallest known population of Ethiopian wolves. Of 7 carcasses found, all 3 tested were positive for rabies. Two wolves were subsequently vaccinated for rabies; 1 of these later died from canine distemper. Only 2 of a known population of 13 wolves survived.

Avian cholera outbreaks threaten seabird species on Amsterdam Island

Infectious diseases may be particularly critical for the conservation of endangered species. A striking example is the recurrent outbreaks that have been occurring in seabirds on Amsterdam Island for the past 30 years, threatening populations of three Endangered seabird species and of the endemic, Critically Endangered Amsterdam albatross Diomedea amsterdamensis. The bacteria Pasteurella multocida (avian cholera causative agent), and to a lesser extent Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae (erysipelas causative agent), were both suspected to be responsible for these epidemics. Despite this critical situation, demographic trends were not available for these threatened populations, and the occurrence and characterization of potential causative agents of epizootics remain poorly known. The aims of the current study were to (i) provide an update of population trends for four threatened seabird species monitored on Amsterdam Island, (ii) assess the occurrence of P. multocida, and E. rhusiopathiae in live birds from five species, (iii) search for other infectious agents in these samples and, (iv) isolate and genotype the causative agent(s) of epizooties from dead birds. Our study shows that the demographic situation has worsened substantially in three seabird species during the past decade, with extremely low reproductive success and declining populations for Indian yellow-nosed albatrosses Thalassarche carteri, sooty albatrosses Phoebetria fusca, and northern rockhopper penguins Eudyptes moseleyi. Pasteurella multocida or E. rhusiopathiae were detected by PCR in live birds of all five investigated species, while results were negative for eight additional infectious agents. A single strain of P. multocida was repeatedly cultured from dead birds, while no E. rhusiopathiae could be isolated. These results highlight the significance of P. multocida in this particular eco-epidemiological system as the main agent responsible for epizootics. The study stresses the urgent need to implement mitigation measures to alter the course of avian cholera outbreaks threatening the persistence of seabird populations on Amsterdam Island.

The Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Epidemiology of Coccidia of Passerine Birds

Coccidia are intracellular parasites of the phylum Apicomplexa that cause a range of pathologies collectively termed coccidiosis. Species of coccidia of commercial importance have been well studied, with the effect of other species on passerine birds receiving increasing attention. In this chapter, we review the literature on coccidia in passerines, with a particular focus on wild populations. The taxonomy and life cycle of passerine coccidia are covered, as is their impact on the health of passerines, their epidemiology and their role in parasite-mediated natural and sexual selection. Coccidia can pose a significant threat to the health of wild passerine populations, and high rates of mortality have been observed in some studies. We examine some of the genetic factors that influence host resistance to coccidia and discuss how these parasites may be important in relation to sexually selected traits. General patterns are beginning to emerge with regard to the epidemiology of the parasites, and the influence of different aspects of the host's ecology on the prevalence and intensity of coccidia is being revealed. We examine these, as well exceptions, in addition to the phenomenon of diurnal oocyst shedding that can bias studies if not accounted for. Finally, we discuss potential future directions for research on coccidia in passerines and the importance of understanding parasite ecology in the management of threatened species.

Model recommendations meet management reality: implementation and evaluation of a network-informed vaccination effort for endangered Hawaiian monk seals

Where disease threatens endangered wildlife populations, substantial resources are required for management actions such as vaccination. While network models provide a promising tool for identifying key spreaders and prioritizing efforts to maximize efficiency, population-scale vaccination remains rare, providing few opportunities to evaluate performance of model-informed strategies under realistic scenarios. Because the endangered Hawaiian monk seal could be heavily impacted by disease threats such as morbillivirus, we implemented a prophylactic vaccination programme. We used contact networks to prioritize vaccinating animals with high contact rates. We used dynamic network models to simulate morbillivirus outbreaks under real and idealized vaccination scenarios. We then evaluated the efficacy of model recommendations in this real-world vaccination project. We found that deviating from the model recommendations decreased the efficiency; requiring 44% more vaccinations to achieve a given decrease in outbreak size. However, we gained protection more quickly by vaccinating available animals rather than waiting to encounter priority seals. This work demonstrates the value of network models, but also makes trade-offs clear. If vaccines were limited but time was ample, vaccinating only priority animals would maximize herd protection. However, where time is the limiting factor, vaccinating additional lower-priority animals could more quickly protect the population.

Social networks: a tool for assessing the impact of perturbations on wildlife behaviour and implications for pathogen transmission

Wildlife are increasingly subject to perturbations, which can impact pathogen transmission and lead to disease emergence. While a myriad of factors influence disease dynamics in wildlife, behaviour is emerging as a major influence. In this review, we examine how perturbations alter the behaviour of individuals and how, in turn, disease transmission may be impacted, with a focus on the use of network models as a powerful tool. There are emerging hypotheses as to how networks respond to different types of perturbations. The broad effects of perturbations make predicting potential outcomes and identifying mitigation opportunities for disease emergence critical; yet, the current paucity of data makes identification of underlying trends difficult. Social network analysis facilitates a mechanistic approach to how perturbation-induced behavioural changes result in shifts in pathogen transmission. However, the field is still developing, and future work should strive to address current deficits. There is particular need for empirical data to support modelling predictions and increased inclusion of pathogen monitoring in network studies.

Fast-killing parasites can be favoured in spatially structured populations

It is becoming increasingly clear that the evolution of infectious disease is influenced by host population structure. Theory predicts that parasites should be more ‘prudent’—less transmissible—in spatially structured host populations. However, here we (i) highlight how low transmission, the phenotype being selected for in this in context, may also be achieved by rapacious host exploitation, if fast host exploitation confers a local, within-host competitive advantage and (ii) test this novel concept in a bacteria–virus system. We found that limited host availability and, to a lesser extent, low relatedness favour faster-killing parasites with reduced transmission. By contrast, high host availability and high relatedness favour slower-killing, more transmissible parasites. Our results suggest high, rather than low, virulence may be selected in spatially structured host–parasite communities where local competition and hence selection for a within-host fitness advantage is high.

This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’.

Sociospatial structure explains marked variation in brucellosis seroprevalence in an Alpine ibex population

In a context of (re)emerging infectious diseases with wildlife reservoirs, understanding how animal ecology shapes epidemiology is a key issue, particularly in wild ungulates that share pathogens with domestic herbivores and have similar food requirements. For the first time in Europe, brucellosis (Brucella melitensis), a virulent zoonosis, persisted in an Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) population and was transmitted to cattle and humans. To better understand disease dynamics, we investigated the relationships between the spatial ecology of ibex and the epidemiology of brucellosis. Combining home range overlap between 37 GPS-collared individuals and visual observations of 148 visually-marked individuals monitored during the 2013-2016 period, we showed that females were spatially segregated in at least 4 units all year round, whereas males were more prone to move between female units, in particular during the rutting period. In addition to ibex age, the spatial structure in females largely contributed to variation in seroprevalence in the whole population. These results suggest that non-sexual routes are the most likely pathways of intraspecific transmission, crucial information for management. Accounting for wildlife spatial ecology was hence decisive in improving our ability to better understand this health challenge involving a wildlife reservoir.

Dynamic, spatial models of parasite transmission in wildlife: Their structure, applications and remaining challenges

Individual differences in contact rate can arise from host, group and landscape heterogeneity and can result in different patterns of spatial spread for diseases in wildlife populations with concomitant implications for disease control in wildlife of conservation concern, livestock and humans. While dynamic disease models can provide a better understanding of the drivers of spatial spread, the effects of landscape heterogeneity have only been modelled in a few well-studied wildlife systems such as rabies and bovine tuberculosis. Such spatial models tend to be either purely theoretical with intrinsic limiting assumptions or individual-based models that are often highly species- and system-specific, limiting the breadth of their utility. Our goal was to review studies that have utilized dynamic, spatial models to answer questions about pathogen transmission in wildlife and identify key gaps in the literature. We begin by providing an overview of the main types of dynamic, spatial models (e.g., metapopulation, network, lattice, cellular automata, individual-based and continuous-space) and their relation to each other. We investigate different types of ecological questions that these models have been used to explore: pathogen invasion dynamics and range expansion, spatial heterogeneity and pathogen persistence, the implications of management and intervention strategies and the role of evolution in host-pathogen dynamics. We reviewed 168 studies that consider pathogen transmission in free-ranging wildlife and classify them by the model type employed, the focal host-pathogen system, and their overall research themes and motivation. We observed a significant focus on mammalian hosts, a few well-studied or purely theoretical pathogen systems, and a lack of studies occurring at the wildlife-public health or wildlife-livestock interfaces. Finally, we discuss challenges and future directions in the context of unprecedented human-mediated environmental change. Spatial models may provide new insights into understanding, for example, how global warming and habitat disturbance contribute to disease maintenance and emergence. Moving forward, better integration of dynamic, spatial disease models with approaches from movement ecology, landscape genetics/genomics and ecoimmunology may provide new avenues for investigation and aid in the control of zoonotic and emerging infectious diseases.

Feasibility and efficacy of oral rabies vaccine SAG2 in endangered Ethiopian wolves

Diseases are a major cause of population declines in endangered populations of several canid species. Parenteral vaccination efforts to protect Ethiopian wolves (Canis simensis) from rabies have targeted the domestic dog reservoir, or the wolves themselves in response to confirmed outbreaks. Oral vaccination offers a more cost-efficient, safe and proactive approach to protect Ethiopian wolves and other threatened canids from rabies. Field trials of the oral vaccine Rabigen® SAG2Dog were undertaken in the Bale Mountains of southeastern Ethiopia. Four different bait types and three delivery methods were tested in twelve Ethiopian wolf packs, and the oral vaccine (using the preferred bait) was trialled in three packs. Vaccine uptake and immunization rates were measured through direct observations and in live-trapped animals through the assessment of biomarker levels and serological status. Commercial baits were never taken by wolves; goat meat baits had the highest uptake, compared to rodent and intestine baits. Targeted delivery from horseback and nocturnal delivery within a pack's territory performed favourably compared to random bait distribution. Bait uptake by non-target species was lowest during the nocturnal blind distribution. Of 21 wolves trapped after vaccination, 14 were positive for the biomarker iophenoxic acid (i.e. ingested the bait and most likely pierced the sachet with the vaccine). Of these, 86% (n=12/14) had levels considered sufficient to provide protective immunity to wildlife (⩾0.20IU/ml), and 50% (n=7/14) demonstrated antibody titres above the universally recognised threshold (⩾0.5IU/ml) -the baseline average was 0.09IU/ml (n=12 wolves). All but one of the wolves vaccinated in 2014 were alive 14months later. Our trials confirm the potential for SAG2, delivered in a goat meat bait, to effectively protect Ethiopian wolves against rabies, supporting the initiative for a more efficient and proactive approach to manage and eventually eliminate rabies in Ethiopian wolf populations.

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: Critical Community Size and Spatial Vaccination Strategies

Hand Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) constitutes a considerable burden for health care systems across China. Yet this burden displays important geographic heterogeneity that directly affects the local persistence and the dynamics of the disease, and thus the ability to control it through vaccination campaigns. Here, we use detailed geographic surveillance data and epidemic models to estimate the critical community size (CCS) of HFMD associated enterovirus serotypes CV-A16 and EV-A71 and we explore what spatial vaccination strategies may best reduce the burden of HFMD. We found CCS ranging from 336,979 (±225,866) to 722,372 (±150,562) with the lowest estimates associated with EV-A71 in the southern region of China where multiple transmission seasons have previously been identified. Our results suggest the existence of a regional immigration-recolonization dynamic driven by urban centers. If EV-A71 vaccines doses are limited, these would be optimally deployed in highly populated urban centers and in high-prevalence areas. If HFMD vaccines are included in China's National Immunization Program in order to achieve high coverage rates (>85%), routine vaccination of newborns largely outperforms strategies in which the equivalent number of doses is equally divided between routine vaccination of newborns and pulse vaccination of the community at large.

Prevalence and risk factors for viral exposure in rural dogs around protected areas of the Atlantic forest

BACKGROUND

Despite the crucial role of domestic dogs as reservoirs for zoonosis and some of the most threatening diseases for wild carnivores such as distemper and parvovirosis, little is known about the epidemiological features and the risk factors involved in pathogen exposure of dogs that live in human/wildlife interfaces and actually contacts wildlife. Through a cross-sectional serological approach and questionnaire survey, we assessed the prevalence along with individual and environment-associated risk factors for four important viral diseases of rural dogs living in households around six Atlantic Forest fragments in southeast Brazil.

RESULTS

Widespread exposure to canine parvovirus (97%), canine distemper virus (15%) and canine adenovirus (27%) was detected, but none for canine coronavirus. Dogs from small private reserves were more exposed to parvovirus and canine distemper virus than those from larger state parks. Exposure was associated with dog sex and age, lack of health care and the number of people in the households. Remarkably, factors linked to free-ranging behaviour of dogs were associated with the exposure for all pathogens detected.

CONCLUSIONS

According to identified associations, reducing viral pathogen exposure in dogs will require inhibiting dog's movements and access to nearby forests and villages and improving veterinary assistance. Promoting dog vaccination and population control through sterilization around protected areas is also necessary. The study provides support for preventive management actions aimed to protect the health of rural dogs, and consequently of Atlantic Forest's wild carnivores.

Canine distemper in endangered Ethiopian wolves

Investigation into mortalities within endangered species can direct conservation efforts.

The Ethiopian wolf (Canis simensis) is the world’s rarest canid; ≈500 wolves remain. The largest population is found within the Bale Mountains National Park (BMNP) in southeastern Ethiopia, where conservation efforts have demonstrated the negative effect of rabies virus on wolf populations. We describe previously unreported infections with canine distemper virus (CDV) among these wolves during 2005–2006 and 2010. Death rates ranged from 43% to 68% in affected subpopulations and were higher for subadult than adult wolves (83%–87% vs. 34%–39%). The 2010 CDV outbreak started 20 months after a rabies outbreak, before the population had fully recovered, and led to the eradication of several focal packs in BMNP’s Web Valley. The combined effect of rabies and CDV increases the chance of pack extinction, exacerbating the typically slow recovery of wolf populations, and represents a key extinction threat to populations of this highly endangered carnivore.

Success stories and emerging themes in conservation physiology

The potential benefits of physiology for conservation are well established and include greater specificity of management techniques, determination of cause-effect relationships, increased sensitivity of health and disturbance monitoring and greater capacity for predicting future change. While descriptions of the specific avenues in which conservation and physiology can be integrated are readily available and important to the continuing expansion of the discipline of 'conservation physiology', to date there has been no assessment of how the field has specifically contributed to conservation success. However, the goal of conservation physiology is to foster conservation solutions and it is therefore important to assess whether physiological approaches contribute to downstream conservation outcomes and management decisions. Here, we present eight areas of conservation concern, ranging from chemical contamination to invasive species to ecotourism, where physiological approaches have led to beneficial changes in human behaviour, management or policy. We also discuss the shared characteristics of these successes, identifying emerging themes in the discipline. Specifically, we conclude that conservation physiology: (i) goes beyond documenting change to provide solutions; (ii) offers a diversity of physiological metrics beyond glucocorticoids (stress hormones); (iii) includes approaches that are transferable among species, locations and times; (iv) simultaneously allows for human use and benefits to wildlife; and (v) is characterized by successes that can be difficult to find in the primary literature. Overall, we submit that the field of conservation physiology has a strong foundation of achievements characterized by a diversity of conservation issues, taxa, physiological traits, ecosystem types and spatial scales. We hope that these concrete successes will encourage the continued evolution and use of physiological tools within conservation-based research and management plans.

Models for managing wildlife disease

Modelling wildlife disease poses some unique challenges. Wildlife disease systems are data poor in comparison with human or livestock disease systems, and the impact of disease on population size is often the key question of interest. This review concentrates specifically on the application of dynamic models to evaluate and guide management strategies. Models have proved useful particularly in two areas. They have been widely used to evaluate vaccination strategies, both for protecting endangered species and for preventing spillover from wildlife to humans or livestock. They have also been extensively used to evaluate culling strategies, again both for diseases in species of conservation interest and to prevent spillover. In addition, models are important to evaluate the potential of parasites and pathogens as biological control agents. The review concludes by identifying some key research gaps, which are further development of models of macroparasites, deciding on appropriate levels of complexity, modelling genetic management and connecting models to data.