Interhemispheric Atlantic seesaw response during the last deglaciation

790,000 years of millennial-scale Cape Horn Current variability and interhemispheric linkages

Millennial-scale variations in the strength and position of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current exert considerable influence on the global meridional overturning circulation and the ocean carbon cycle. The mechanistic understanding of these variations is still incomplete, partly due to the scarcity of sediment records covering multiple glacial-interglacial cycles with millennial-scale resolution. Here, we present high-resolution current strength and sea surface temperature records covering the past 790,000 years from the Cape Horn Current as part of the subantarctic Antarctic Circumpolar Current system, flowing along the Chilean margin. Both temperature and current velocity data document persistent millennial-scale climate variability throughout the last eight glacial periods with stronger current flow and warmer sea surface temperatures coinciding with Antarctic warm intervals. These Southern Hemisphere changes are linked to North Atlantic millennial-scale climate fluctuations, plausibly involving changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. The variations in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current system are associated with atmospheric CO2 changes, suggesting a mechanistic link through the Southern Ocean carbon cycle.

Distinct roles for precession, obliquity, and eccentricity in Pleistocene 100-kyr glacial cycles

Identifying the specific roles of precession, obliquity, and eccentricity in glacial-interglacial transitions is hindered by imprecise age control. We circumvent this problem by focusing on the morphology of deglaciation and inception, which we show depends strongly on the relative phasing of precession versus obliquity. We demonstrate that although both parameters are important, precession has more influence on deglacial onset, whereas obliquity is more important for the attainment of peak interglacial conditions and glacial inception. We find that the set of precession peaks (minima) responsible for terminations since 0.9 million years ago is a subset of those peaks that begin (i.e., the precession parameter starts decreasing) while obliquity is increasing. Specifically, termination occurs with the first of these candidate peaks to occur after each eccentricity minimum. Thus, the gross morphology of 100-thousand-year (100-kyr) glacial cycles appears largely deterministic.

Sea ice-ocean coupling during Heinrich Stadials in the Atlantic-Arctic gateway

The variability of Arctic sea-ice during abrupt stadial-interstadial shifts in the last glacial period remain poorly understood. Here, we investigated the millennial-scale relationship, with a focus on Heinrich Stadials (HS), between sea-ice cover and bottom water temperature (BWT) during Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 3 and 2 (64-13 ka) in the Fram Strait using new molecular sea ice biomarker data and published benthic foraminiferal BWT records. Widespread spring sea-ice cover (SpSIC) dominated the studied interval, especially in mid-late MIS 3 (45-29 ka). Yet, warm interstadials were characterized by relatively more open-ocean conditions compared to cold stadials. At the transition between a HS and the subsequent interstadial, sea ice was tightly linked to BWT with rapid reductions in SpSIC coinciding with lower BWT at the end of HS. The relative timing of the events, especially during HS 1, points to ocean warming as the key controlling factor for sea ice reduction at millennial timescales.

Arctic and Antarctic forcing of ocean interior warming during the last deglaciation

Subsurface water masses formed at high latitudes impact the latitudinal distribution of heat in the ocean. Yet uncertainty surrounding the timing of low-latitude warming during the last deglaciation (18-10 ka) means that controls on sub-surface temperature rise remain unclear. Here we present seawater temperature records on a precise common age-scale from East Equatorial Pacific (EEP), Equatorial Atlantic, and Southern Ocean intermediate waters using new Li/Mg records from cold water corals. We find coeval warming in the tropical EEP and Atlantic during Heinrich Stadial 1 (+ 6 °C) that closely resemble warming recorded in Antarctic ice cores, with more modest warming of the Southern Ocean (+ 3 °C). The magnitude and depth of low-latitude ocean warming implies that downward accumulation of heat following Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowdown played a key role in heating the ocean interior, with heat advection from southern-sourced intermediate waters playing an additional role.

Early sea ice decline off East Antarctica at the last glacial-interglacial climate transition

Antarctic climate warming and atmospheric CO2 rise during the last deglaciation may be attributed in part to sea ice reduction in the Southern Ocean. Yet, glacial-interglacial Antarctic sea ice dynamics and underlying mechanisms are poorly constrained, as robust sea ice proxy evidence is sparse. Here, we present a molecular biomarker-based sea ice record that resolves the spring/summer sea ice variability off East Antarctica during the past 40 thousand years (ka). Our results indicate that substantial sea ice reduction culminated rapidly and contemporaneously with upwelling of carbon-enriched waters in the Southern Ocean at the onset of the last deglaciation but began at least ~2 ka earlier probably driven by an increasing local integrated summer insolation. Our findings suggest that sea ice reduction and associated feedbacks facilitated stratification breakup and outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean and warming in Antarctica but may also have played a leading role in initializing these deglacial processes in the Southern Hemisphere.

Identifying the provenance and quantifying the contribution of dust sources in EPICA Dronning Maud Land ice core (Antarctica) over the last deglaciation (7-27 kyr BP): A high-resolution, quantitative record from a new Rare Earth Element mixing model

Antarctic ice cores have revealed the interplay between dust and climate in the Southern Hemisphere. Yet, so far, no continuous record of dust provenance has been established through the last deglaciation. Here, using a new database of 207 Rare Earth Element (REE) patterns measured in dust and sediments/soils from well-known potential source areas (PSA) of the Southern Hemisphere, we developed a statistical model combining those inputs to provide the best fit to the REE patterns measured in EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) ice core (E. Antarctica). Out of 398 samples measured in the EDML core, 386 samples have been un-mixed with statistical significance. Combined with the total atmospheric deposition, we quantified the dust flux from each PSA to EDML between 7 and 27 kyr BP. Our results reveal that the dust composition was relatively uniform up until 14.5 kyr BP despite a large drop in atmospheric deposition at ∼18 kyr with a large contribution from Patagonia yielding ∼68 % of total dust deposition. The remaining dust was supplied from Australia (14-15 %), Southern Africa (∼9 %), New Zealand (∼3-4 %) and Puna-Altiplano (∼2-3 %). The most striking change occurred ∼14.5 kyr BP when Patagonia dropped below 50 % on average while low-latitude PSA increased their contributions to 21-23 % for Southern Africa, 13-21 % for Australia and ∼ 4-10 % for Puna-Altiplano. We argue that this shift is linked to long-lasting changes in the hydrology of Patagonian rivers and to sudden acceleration of the submersion of Patagonian shelf at 14.5 kyr BP, highlighting a relationship between dust composition and eustatic sea level. Early Holocene dust composition is highly variable, with Patagonian contribution being still prevalent, at ∼50 % on average. Provided a good coverage of local and distal PSA, our statistical model based on REE pattern offers a straightforward and cost-effective method to trace dust source in ice cores.

Bipolar impact and phasing of Heinrich-type climate variability

During the last ice age, the Laurentide Ice Sheet exhibited extreme iceberg discharge events that are recorded in North Atlantic sediments1. These Heinrich events have far-reaching climate impacts, including widespread disruptions to hydrological and biogeochemical cycles2-4. They occurred during Heinrich stadials-cold periods with strongly weakened Atlantic overturning circulation5-7. Heinrich-type variability is not distinctive in Greenland water isotope ratios, a well-dated site temperature proxy8, complicating efforts to assess their regional climate impact and phasing against Antarctic climate change. Here we show that Heinrich events have no detectable temperature impact on Greenland and cooling occurs at the onset of several Heinrich stadials, and that both types of Heinrich variability have a distinct imprint on Antarctic climate. Antarctic ice cores show accelerated warming that is synchronous with increases in methane during Heinrich events, suggesting an atmospheric teleconnection9, despite the absence of a Greenland climate signal. Greenland ice-core nitrogen stable isotope ratios, a sensitive temperature proxy, indicate an abrupt cooling of about three degrees Celsius at the onset of Heinrich Stadial 1 (17.8 thousand years before present, where present is defined as 1950). Antarctic warming lags this cooling by 133 ± 93 years, consistent with an oceanic teleconnection. Paradoxically, proximal sites are less affected by Heinrich events than remote sites, suggesting spatially complex event dynamics.

Coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean dynamics during Heinrich Stadial 2

Our understanding of climate dynamics during millennial-scale events is incomplete, partially due to the lack of their precise phase analyses under various boundary conditions. Here we present nine speleothem oxygen-isotope records from mid-to-low-latitude monsoon regimes with sub-centennial age precision and multi-annual resolution, spanning the Heinrich Stadial 2 (HS2) - a millennial-scale event that occurred at the Last Glacial Maximum. Our data suggests that the Greenland and Antarctic ice-core chronologies require +320- and +400-year adjustments, respectively, supported by extant volcanic evidence and radiocarbon ages. Our chronological framework shows a synchronous HS2 onset globally. Our records precisely characterize a centennial-scale abrupt "tropical atmospheric seesaw" superimposed on the conventional "bipolar seesaw" at the beginning of HS2, implying a unique response/feedback from low-latitude hydroclimate. Together with our observation of an early South American monsoon shift at the HS2 termination, we suggest a more active role of low-latitude hydroclimate dynamics underlying millennial events than previously thought.

60 million years of glaciation in the Transantarctic Mountains

The Antarctic continent reached its current polar location ~83 Ma and became shrouded by ice sheets ~34 Ma, coincident with dramatic global cooling at the Eocene-Oligocene boundary. However, it is not known whether the first Antarctic glaciers formed immediately prior to this or were present significantly earlier. Here we show that mountain glaciers were likely present in the Transantarctic Mountains during the Late Palaeocene (~60–56 Ma) and middle Eocene (~48–40 Ma). Temperate (warm-based) glaciers were prevalent during the Late Eocene (~40–34 Ma) and, in reduced numbers, during the Oligocene (~34–23 Ma), before larger, likely cold-based, ice masses (including ice sheets) dominated. Some temperate mountain glaciers were present during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (~15 Ma), before a widespread switch to cold-based glaciation. Our findings highlight the longevity of glaciation in Antarctica and suggest that glaciers were present even during the Early-Cenozoic greenhouse world.

This study finds that glaciers have existed in the Transantarctic Mountains for the past 60 million years, and that warm-based mountain glaciers were present in Antarctica long before ice sheets came to dominate the continent.

Meridional changes in the South Atlantic Subtropical Gyre during Heinrich Stadials

Subtropical ocean gyres play a key role in modulating the global climate system redistributing energy between low and high latitudes. A poleward displacement of the subtropical gyres has been observed over the last decades, but the lack of long-term monitoring data hinders an in-depth understanding of their dynamics. Paleoceanographic records offer the opportunity to identify meridional changes in the subtropical gyres and investigate their consequences to the climate system. Here we use the abundance of planktonic foraminiferal species Globorotalia truncatulinodes from a sediment core collected at the northernmost boundary of the South Atlantic Subtropical Gyre (SASG) together with a previously published record of the same species from the southernmost boundary of the SASG to reconstruct meridional fluctuations of the SASG over last ca. 70 kyr. Our findings indicate southward displacements of the SASG during Heinrich Stadials (HS) 6-4 and HS1, and a contraction of the SASG during HS3 and HS2. During HS6-4 and HS1, the SASG southward displacements likely boosted the transfer of heat to the Southern Ocean, ultimately strengthening deep-water upwelling and CO₂ release to the atmosphere. We hypothesize that the ongoing SASG poleward displacement may further increase oceanic CO₂ release.

Millennial scale feedbacks determine the shape and rapidity of glacial termination

Within the Late Pleistocene, terminations describe the major transitions marking the end of glacial cycles. While it is established that abrupt shifts in the ocean/atmosphere system are a ubiquitous component of deglaciation, significant uncertainties remain concerning their specific role and the likelihood that terminations may be interrupted by large-amplitude abrupt oscillations. In this perspective we address these uncertainties in the light of recent developments in the understanding of glacial terminations as the ultimate interaction between millennial and orbital timescale variability. Innovations in numerical climate simulation and new geologic records allow us to highlight new avenues of research and identify key remaining uncertainties such as sea-level variability.

Late glacial (17,060-13,400 cal yr BP) sedimentary and paleoenvironmental evolution of the Sekhokong Range (Drakensberg), southern Africa

Southern Africa sits at the junction of tropical and temperate systems, leading to the formation of seasonal precipitation zones. Understanding late Quaternary paleoclimatic change in this vulnerable region is hampered by a lack of available, reliably-dated records. Here we present a sequence from a well-stratified sedimentary infill occupying a lower slope basin which covers 17,060 to 13,400 cal yr BP with the aim to reconstruct paleoclimatic variability in the high Drakensberg during the Late Glacial. We use a combination of pollen, total organic carbon and nitrogen, δ13C, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy attenuated total reflectance (FTIR-ATR) spectral and elemental data on contiguous samples with high temporal resolution (10 to 80 years per sample). Our data support a relatively humid environment with considerable cold season precipitation during what might have been the final stage of niche-glaciation on the adjoining southern aspects around 17,000 cal yr BP. Then, after an initial warmer and drier period starting ~15,600 cal yr BP, we identify a return to colder and drier conditions with more winter precipitation starting ~14,380 cal yr BP, which represents the first local evidence for the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) in this region. On decadal to centennial timescales, the Late Glacial period was one marked by considerable climatic fluctuation and bi-directional environmental change, which has not been identified in previous studies for this region. Our study shows complex changes in both moisture and thermal conditions providing a more nuanced picture of the Late Glacial for the high Drakensburg.

Southern Ocean upwelling, Earth's obliquity, and glacial-interglacial atmospheric CO2 change

Previous studies have suggested that during the late Pleistocene ice ages, surface-deep exchange was somehow weakened in the Southern Ocean's Antarctic Zone, which reduced the leakage of deeply sequestered carbon dioxide and thus contributed to the lower atmospheric carbon dioxide levels of the ice ages. Here, high-resolution diatom-bound nitrogen isotope measurements from the Indian sector of the Antarctic Zone reveal three modes of change in Southern Westerly Wind-driven upwelling, each affecting atmospheric carbon dioxide. Two modes, related to global climate and the bipolar seesaw, have been proposed previously. The third mode-which arises from the meridional temperature gradient as affected by Earth's obliquity (axial tilt)-can explain the lag of atmospheric carbon dioxide behind climate during glacial inception and deglaciation. This obliquity-induced lag, in turn, makes carbon dioxide a delayed climate amplifier in the late Pleistocene glacial cycles.

StableClim, continuous projections of climate stability from 21000 BP to 2100 CE at multiple spatial scales

Paleoclimatic data are used in eco-evolutionary models to improve knowledge of biogeographical processes that drive patterns of biodiversity through time, opening windows into past climate–biodiversity dynamics. Applying these models to harmonised simulations of past and future climatic change can strengthen forecasts of biodiversity change. StableClim provides continuous estimates of climate stability from 21,000 years ago to 2100 C.E. for ocean and terrestrial realms at spatial scales that include biogeographic regions and climate zones. Climate stability is quantified using annual trends and variabilities in air temperature and precipitation, and associated signal-to-noise ratios. Thresholds of natural variability in trends in regional- and global-mean temperature allow periods in Earth’s history when climatic conditions were warming and cooling rapidly (or slowly) to be identified and climate stability to be estimated locally (grid-cell) during these periods of accelerated change. Model simulations are validated against independent paleoclimate and observational data. Projections of climatic stability, accessed through StableClim, will improve understanding of the roles of climate in shaping past, present-day and future patterns of biodiversity.

Measurement(s)	climate change • climate • temperature of air • volume of hydrological precipitation
Technology Type(s)	computational modeling technique • digital curation
Factor Type(s)	timing of temperature and precipitation estimates
Sample Characteristic - Environment	climate system
Sample Characteristic - Location	Earth (planet)

Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.12831935

Rapid shifts in circulation and biogeochemistry of the Southern Ocean during deglacial carbon cycle events

The Southern Ocean plays a crucial role in regulating atmospheric CO₂ on centennial to millennial time scales. However, observations of sufficient resolution to explore this have been lacking. Here, we report high-resolution, multiproxy records based on precisely dated deep-sea corals from the Southern Ocean. Paired deep (∆¹⁴C and δ¹¹B) and surface (δ¹⁵N) proxy data point to enhanced upwelling coupled with reduced efficiency of the biological pump at 14.6 and 11.7 thousand years (ka) ago, which would have facilitated rapid carbon release to the atmosphere. Transient periods of unusually well-ventilated waters in the deep Southern Ocean occurred at 16.3 and 12.8 ka ago. Contemporaneous atmospheric carbon records indicate that these Southern Ocean ventilation events are also important in releasing respired carbon from the deep ocean to the atmosphere. Our results thus highlight two distinct modes of Southern Ocean circulation and biogeochemistry associated with centennial-scale atmospheric CO₂ jumps during the last deglaciation.

Synchronous timing of abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

Abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period have been detected in a global array of palaeoclimate records, but our understanding of their absolute timing and regional synchrony is incomplete. Our compilation of 63 published, independently dated speleothem records shows that abrupt warmings in Greenland were associated with synchronous climate changes across the Asian Monsoon, South American Monsoon, and European-Mediterranean regions that occurred within decades. Together with the demonstration of bipolar synchrony in atmospheric response, this provides independent evidence of synchronous high-latitude-to-tropical coupling of climate changes during these abrupt warmings. Our results provide a globally coherent framework with which to validate model simulations of abrupt climate change and to constrain ice-core chronologies.

The role of Northeast Pacific meltwater events in deglacial climate change

Columbia River megafloods occurred repeatedly during the last deglaciation, but the impacts of this fresh water on Pacific hydrography are largely unknown. To reconstruct changes in ocean circulation during this period, we used a numerical model to simulate the flow trajectory of Columbia River megafloods and compiled records of sea surface temperature, paleo-salinity, and deep-water radiocarbon from marine sediment cores in the Northeast Pacific. The North Pacific sea surface cooled and freshened during the early deglacial (19.0-16.5 ka) and Younger Dryas (12.9-11.7 ka) intervals, coincident with the appearance of subsurface water masses depleted in radiocarbon relative to the sea surface. We infer that Pacific meltwater fluxes contributed to net Northern Hemisphere cooling prior to North Atlantic Heinrich Events, and again during the Younger Dryas stadial. Abrupt warming in the Northeast Pacific similarly contributed to hemispheric warming during the Bølling and Holocene transitions. These findings underscore the importance of changes in North Pacific freshwater fluxes and circulation in deglacial climate events.

Insights on the evolution of the living Great Amazon Reef System, equatorial West Atlantic

The Great Amazon Reef (GARS) is an extensive mesophotic reef ecosystem between Brazil and the Caribbean. Despite being considered as one of the most important mesophotic reef ecosystems of the South Atlantic, recent criticism on the existence of a living reef in the Amazon River mouth was raised by some scientists and politicians. The region is coveted for large-scale projects for oil and gas exploration. Here, we add to the increasing knowledge about the GARS by exploring evolutionary aspects of the reef using primary and secondary information on radiocarbon dating from carbonate samples. The results obtained demonstrate that the reef is alive and growing, with living organisms inhabiting the GARS in its totality. Additional studies on net reef growth, habitat diversity, and associated biodiversity are urgently needed to help reconcile economic activities and biodiversity conservation.

Deep-water circulation changes lead North Atlantic climate during deglaciation

Constraining the response time of the climate system to changes in North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation is fundamental to improving climate and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation predictability. Here we report a new synchronization of terrestrial, marine, and ice-core records, which allows the first quantitative determination of the response time of North Atlantic climate to changes in high-latitude NADW formation rate during the last deglaciation. Using a continuous record of deep water ventilation from the Nordic Seas, we identify a ∼400-year lead of changes in high-latitude NADW formation ahead of abrupt climate changes recorded in Greenland ice cores at the onset and end of the Younger Dryas stadial, which likely occurred in response to gradual changes in temperature- and wind-driven freshwater transport. We suggest that variations in Nordic Seas deep-water circulation are precursors to abrupt climate changes and that future model studies should address this phasing.

The response time of North Atlantic climate to changes in high-latitude deep-water formation during the last deglaciation is still unclear. Here the authors show that gradual changes in Nordic Seas deep-water circulation systematically lead ahead of abrupt regional climate shifts by ~400 years.

Phased Patagonian Ice Sheet response to Southern Hemisphere atmospheric and oceanic warming between 18 and 17 ka

The onset of deglaciation in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes has been attributed to the southward transmission of climate anomalies in response to slow-down of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS-1; 18–14.6 ka). However, inferences on the response of former ice sheets to sub-millennial palaeoclimate shifts are limited by a shortage of high-resolution terrestrial archives. Here we use a ~1000-year duration, annually-resolved lake sediment record to investigate the deglacial retreat dynamics of the Lago General Carrera–Buenos Aires ice lobe (46.5°S) of the former Patagonian Ice Sheet. We attribute the onset of glacier retreat at 18.0 ± 0.14 cal ka BP to abrupt southward migration of the Southern Westerly Winds that enhanced solar radiation receipt (and ablation) at the ice sheet surface. We infer that accelerated retreat from 17.77 ± 0.13 cal ka BP represents a lagged Southern Hemisphere response to gradual ocean-atmosphere warming associated with the centennial-scale transmission of Northern Hemisphere climate anomalies through the oceanic bipolar seesaw. By 17.38 ± 0.12 cal ka BP, the glacier margin had receded into a deepening proglacial lake, instigating sustained calving losses and more rapid ice recession.

A last deglacial climate dataset comprising ice core data, marine data, and stalagmite data

In this data article, a dataset of paleoclimatic records ranging from 22 to 9 thousand years before present is reported, which is related to the research article entitled "Breakpoint lead-lag analysis of the last deglacial climate change and atmospheric CO2 concentration on global and hemispheric scales" published in the journal of Quaternary International by Liu et al. (2018). In the dataset, 4 δ18O records derived from Greenlandic ice cores, 2 δD records and 7 δ18O records derived from Antarctic ice cores, 32 UK' 37 records and 26 Mg/Ca records derived from marine deposits, and 17 δ18O records derived from cave stalagmites were collected and collated. General and statistical characteristics of these 88 proxy records are showed here. All of the data are stored in separate Microsoft Excel spreadsheets that are available for researchers.

Deglacial mobilization of pre-aged terrestrial carbon from degrading permafrost

The mobilization of glacial permafrost carbon during the last glacial–interglacial transition has been suggested by indirect evidence to be an additional and significant source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, especially at times of rapid sea-level rise. Here we present the first direct evidence for the release of ancient carbon from degrading permafrost in East Asia during the last 17 kyrs, using biomarkers and radiocarbon dating of terrigenous material found in two sediment cores from the Okhotsk Sea. Upscaling our results to the whole Arctic shelf area, we show by carbon cycle simulations that deglacial permafrost-carbon release through sea-level rise likely contributed significantly to the changes in atmospheric CO₂ around 14.6 and 11.5 kyrs BP.

Permafrost-derived carbon (C) may have been an additional source of greenhouse gases during the last glacial-interglacial transition. Here the authors show that ancient C from degrading permafrost was mobilised during phases of rapid sea-level rise, partially explaining changes in atmospheric CO₂ and ∆¹⁴C.

Lake Tauca highstand (Heinrich Stadial 1a) driven by a southward shift of the Bolivian High

Heinrich events are characterized by worldwide climate modifications. Over the Altiplano endorheic basin (high tropical Andes), the second half of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1a) was coeval with the highstand of the giant paleolake Tauca. However, the atmospheric mechanisms underlying this wet event are still unknown at the regional to global scale. We use cosmic-ray exposure ages of glacial landforms to reconstruct the spatial variability in the equilibrium line altitude of the HS1a Altiplano glaciers. By combining glacier and lake modeling, we reconstruct a precipitation map for the HS1a period. Our results show that paleoprecipitation mainly increased along the Eastern Cordillera, whereas the southwestern region of the basin remained relatively dry. This pattern indicates a southward expansion of the easterlies, which is interpreted as being a consequence of a southward shift of the Bolivian High. The results provide a new understanding of atmospheric teleconnections during HS1 and of rainfall redistribution in a changing climate.

Southern Hemisphere westerlies as a driver of the early deglacial atmospheric CO2 rise

The early part of the last deglaciation is characterised by a ~40 ppm atmospheric CO₂ rise occurring in two abrupt phases. The underlying mechanisms driving these increases remain a subject of intense debate. Here, we successfully reproduce changes in CO₂, δ¹³C and Δ¹⁴C as recorded by paleo-records during Heinrich stadial 1 (HS1). We show that HS1 CO₂ increase can be explained by enhanced Southern Ocean upwelling of carbon-rich Pacific deep and intermediate waters, resulting from intensified Southern Ocean convection and Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerlies. While enhanced Antarctic Bottom Water formation leads to a millennial CO₂ outgassing, intensified SH westerlies induce a multi-decadal atmospheric CO₂ rise. A strengthening of SH westerlies in a global eddy-permitting ocean model further supports a multi-decadal CO₂ outgassing from the Southern Ocean. Our results highlight the crucial role of SH westerlies in the global climate and carbon cycle system with important implications for future climate projections.

Despite decades of research, the sequence of events leading to the deglacial atmospheric CO₂ rise remains unclear. Menviel et al. show that Southern Ocean convection driven by intensified Southern Hemisphere westerlies during Heinrich stadial 1 can explain the abrupt pCO₂ rise and changes in atmosphere and ocean carbon isotopes.

Prokaryotes in the WAIS Divide ice core reflect source and transport changes between Last Glacial Maximum and the early Holocene

We present the first long-term, highly resolved prokaryotic cell concentration record obtained from a polar ice core. This record, obtained from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide (WD) ice core, spanned from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the early Holocene (EH) and showed distinct fluctuations in prokaryotic cell concentration coincident with major climatic states. The time series also revealed a ~1,500-year periodicity with greater amplitude during the Last Deglaciation (LDG). Higher prokaryotic cell concentration and lower variability occurred during the LGM and EH than during the LDG. A sevenfold decrease in prokaryotic cell concentration coincided with the LGM/LDG transition and the global 19 ka meltwater pulse. Statistical models revealed significant relationships between the prokaryotic cell record and tracers of both marine (sea-salt sodium [ssNa]) and burning emissions (black carbon [BC]). Collectively, these models, together with visual observations and methanosulfidic acid (MSA) measurements, indicated that the temporal variability in concentration of airborne prokaryotic cells reflected changes in marine/sea-ice regional environments of the WAIS. Our data revealed that variations in source and transport were the most likely processes producing the significant temporal variations in WD prokaryotic cell concentrations. This record provided strong evidence that airborne prokaryotic cell deposition differed during the LGM, LDG, and EH, and that these changes in cell densities could be explained by different environmental conditions during each of these climatic periods. Our observations provide the first ice-core time series evidence for a prokaryotic response to long-term climatic and environmental processes.

South American monsoon response to iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic

Heinrich Stadials significantly affected tropical precipitation through changes in the interhemispheric temperature gradient as a result of abrupt cooling in the North Atlantic. Here, we focus on changes in South American monsoon precipitation during Heinrich Stadials using a suite of speleothem records covering the last 85 ky B.P. from eastern South America. We document the response of South American monsoon precipitation to episodes of extensive iceberg discharge, which is distinct from the response to the cooling episodes that precede the main phase of ice-rafted detritus deposition. Our results demonstrate that iceberg discharge in the western subtropical North Atlantic led to an abrupt increase in monsoon precipitation over eastern South America. Our findings of an enhanced Southern Hemisphere monsoon, coeval with the iceberg discharge into the North Atlantic, are consistent with the observed abrupt increase in atmospheric methane concentrations during Heinrich Stadials.

Climatic controls on Later Stone Age human adaptation in Africa's southern Cape

Africa's southern Cape is a key region for the evolution of our species, with early symbolic systems, marine faunal exploitation, and episodic production of microlithic stone tools taken as evidence for the appearance of distinctively complex human behavior. However, the temporally discontinuous nature of this evidence precludes ready assumptions of intrinsic adaptive benefit, and has encouraged diverse explanations for the occurrence of these behaviors, in terms of regional demographic, social and ecological conditions. Here, we present a new high-resolution multi-proxy record of environmental change that indicates that faunal exploitation patterns and lithic technologies track climatic variation across the last 22,300 years in the southern Cape. Conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum and deglaciation were humid, and zooarchaeological data indicate high foraging returns. By contrast, the Holocene is characterized by much drier conditions and a degraded resource base. Critically, we demonstrate that systems for technological delivery - or provisioning - were responsive to changing humidity and environmental productivity. However, in contrast to prevailing models, bladelet-rich microlithic technologies were deployed under conditions of high foraging returns and abandoned in response to increased aridity and less productive subsistence environments. This suggests that posited links between microlithic technologies and subsistence risk are not universal, and the behavioral sophistication of human populations is reflected in their adaptive flexibility rather than in the use of specific technological systems.

Identifying early modern human ecological niche expansions and associated cultural dynamics in the South African Middle Stone Age

The archaeological record shows that typically human cultural traits emerged at different times, in different parts of the world, and among different hominin taxa. This pattern suggests that their emergence is the outcome of complex and nonlinear evolutionary trajectories, influenced by environmental, demographic, and social factors, that need to be understood and traced at regional scales. The application of predictive algorithms using archaeological and paleoenvironmental data allows one to estimate the ecological niches occupied by past human populations and identify niche changes through time, thus providing the possibility of investigating relationships between cultural innovations and possible niche shifts. By using such methods to examine two key southern Africa archaeological cultures, the Still Bay [76-71 thousand years before present (ka)] and the Howiesons Poort (HP; 66-59 ka), we identify a niche shift characterized by a significant expansion in the breadth of the HP ecological niche. This expansion is coincident with aridification occurring across Marine Isotope Stage 4 (ca. 72-60 ka) and especially pronounced at 60 ka. We argue that this niche shift was made possible by the development of a flexible technological system, reliant on composite tools and cultural transmission strategies based more on "product copying" rather than "process copying." These results counter the one niche/one human taxon equation. They indicate that what makes our cultures, and probably the cultures of other members of our lineage, unique is their flexibility and ability to produce innovations that allow a population to shift its ecological niche.

Human-induced changes in the distribution of rainfall

A likely consequence of global warming will be the redistribution of Earth's rain belts, affecting water availability for many of Earth's inhabitants. We consider three ways in which planetary warming might influence the global distribution of precipitation. The first possibility is that rainfall in the tropics will increase and that the subtropics and mid-latitudes will become more arid. A second possibility is that Earth's thermal equator, around which the planet's rain belts and dry zones are organized, will migrate northward. This northward shift will be a consequence of the Northern Hemisphere, with its large continental area, warming faster than the Southern Hemisphere, with its large oceanic area. A third possibility is that both of these scenarios will play out simultaneously. We review paleoclimate evidence suggesting that (i) the middle latitudes were wetter during the last glacial maximum, (ii) a northward shift of the thermal equator attended the abrupt Bølling-Allerød climatic transition ~14.6 thousand years ago, and (iii) a southward shift occurred during the more recent Little Ice Age. We also inspect trends in seasonal surface heating between the hemispheres over the past several decades. From these clues, we predict that there will be a seasonally dependent response in rainfall patterns to global warming. During boreal summer, in which the rate of recent warming has been relatively uniform between the hemispheres, wet areas will get wetter and dry regions will become drier. During boreal winter, rain belts and drylands will expand northward in response to differential heating between the hemispheres.

Timing and nature of AMOC recovery across Termination 2 and magnitude of deglacial CO2 change

Large amplitude variations in atmospheric CO₂ were associated with glacial terminations of the Late Pleistocene. Here we provide multiple lines of evidence suggesting that the ∼20 p.p.m.v. overshoot in CO₂ at the end of Termination 2 (T2) ∼129 ka was associated with an abrupt (≤400 year) deepening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In contrast to Termination 1 (T1), which was interrupted by the Bølling-Allerød (B-A), AMOC recovery did not occur until the very end of T2, and was characterized by pronounced formation of deep waters in the NW Atlantic. Considering the variable influences of ocean circulation change on atmospheric CO₂, we suggest that the net change in CO₂ across the last 2 terminations was approximately equal if the transient effects of deglacial oscillations in ocean circulation are taken into account.

Differences in the sequence and timing of ocean circulation changes across glacial terminations could affect the magnitude of deglacial atmospheric CO₂ rise. Here, the authors argue that late ocean circulation recovery during the penultimate deglaciation (T2) led to a larger rise in CO₂ compared with T1.

State dependence of climatic instability over the past 720,000 years from Antarctic ice cores and climate modeling

Climatic variabilities on millennial and longer time scales with a bipolar seesaw pattern have been documented in paleoclimatic records, but their frequencies, relationships with mean climatic state, and mechanisms remain unclear. Understanding the processes and sensitivities that underlie these changes will underpin better understanding of the climate system and projections of its future change. We investigate the long-term characteristics of climatic variability using a new ice-core record from Dome Fuji, East Antarctica, combined with an existing long record from the Dome C ice core. Antarctic warming events over the past 720,000 years are most frequent when the Antarctic temperature is slightly below average on orbital time scales, equivalent to an intermediate climate during glacial periods, whereas interglacial and fully glaciated climates are unfavourable for a millennial-scale bipolar seesaw. Numerical experiments using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model with freshwater hosing in the northern North Atlantic showed that climate becomes most unstable in intermediate glacial conditions associated with large changes in sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the prerequisite for the most frequent climate instability with bipolar seesaw pattern during the late Pleistocene era is associated with reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration via global cooling and sea ice formation in the North Atlantic, in addition to extended Northern Hemisphere ice sheets.

Deglacial temperature history of West Antarctica

The most recent glacial to interglacial transition constitutes a remarkable natural experiment for learning how Earth's climate responds to various forcings, including a rise in atmospheric CO₂ This transition has left a direct thermal remnant in the polar ice sheets, where the exceptional purity and continual accumulation of ice permit analyses not possible in other settings. For Antarctica, the deglacial warming has previously been constrained only by the water isotopic composition in ice cores, without an absolute thermometric assessment of the isotopes' sensitivity to temperature. To overcome this limitation, we measured temperatures in a deep borehole and analyzed them together with ice-core data to reconstruct the surface temperature history of West Antarctica. The deglacial warming was [Formula: see text]C, approximately two to three times the global average, in agreement with theoretical expectations for Antarctic amplification of planetary temperature changes. Consistent with evidence from glacier retreat in Southern Hemisphere mountain ranges, the Antarctic warming was mostly completed by 15 kyBP, several millennia earlier than in the Northern Hemisphere. These results constrain the role of variable oceanic heat transport between hemispheres during deglaciation and quantitatively bound the direct influence of global climate forcings on Antarctic temperature. Although climate models perform well on average in this context, some recent syntheses of deglacial climate history have underestimated Antarctic warming and the models with lowest sensitivity can be discounted.

PALEOCEANOGRAPHY. A warm and poorly ventilated deep Arctic Mediterranean during the last glacial period

Changes in the formation of dense water in the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas [the "Arctic Mediterranean" (AM)] probably contributed to the altered climate of the last glacial period. We examined past changes in AM circulation by reconstructing radiocarbon ventilation ages of the deep Nordic Seas over the past 30,000 years. Our results show that the glacial deep AM was extremely poorly ventilated (ventilation ages of up to 10,000 years). Subsequent episodic overflow of aged water into the mid-depth North Atlantic occurred during deglaciation. Proxy data also suggest that the deep glacial AM was ~2° to 3°C warmer than modern temperatures; deglacial mixing of the deep AM with the upper ocean thus potentially contributed to the melting of sea ice, icebergs, and terminal ice-sheet margins.

Precise interpolar phasing of abrupt climate change during the last ice age

The last glacial period exhibited abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic oscillations, evidence of which is preserved in a variety of Northern Hemisphere palaeoclimate archives. Ice cores show that Antarctica cooled during the warm phases of the Greenland Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle and vice versa, suggesting an interhemispheric redistribution of heat through a mechanism called the bipolar seesaw. Variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) strength are thought to have been important, but much uncertainty remains regarding the dynamics and trigger of these abrupt events. Key information is contained in the relative phasing of hemispheric climate variations, yet the large, poorly constrained difference between gas age and ice age and the relatively low resolution of methane records from Antarctic ice cores have so far precluded methane-based synchronization at the required sub-centennial precision. Here we use a recently drilled high-accumulation Antarctic ice core to show that, on average, abrupt Greenland warming leads the corresponding Antarctic cooling onset by 218 ± 92 years (2σ) for Dansgaard-Oeschger events, including the Bølling event; Greenland cooling leads the corresponding onset of Antarctic warming by 208 ± 96 years. Our results demonstrate a north-to-south directionality of the abrupt climatic signal, which is propagated to the Southern Hemisphere high latitudes by oceanic rather than atmospheric processes. The similar interpolar phasing of warming and cooling transitions suggests that the transfer time of the climatic signal is independent of the AMOC background state. Our findings confirm a central role for ocean circulation in the bipolar seesaw and provide clear criteria for assessing hypotheses and model simulations of Dansgaard-Oeschger dynamics.

Greenland temperature response to climate forcing during the last deglaciation

Greenland ice core water isotopic composition (δ(18)O) provides detailed evidence for abrupt climate changes but is by itself insufficient for quantitative reconstruction of past temperatures and their spatial patterns. We investigate Greenland temperature evolution during the last deglaciation using independent reconstructions from three ice cores and simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. Contrary to the traditional δ(18)O interpretation, the Younger Dryas period was 4.5° ± 2°C warmer than the Oldest Dryas, due to increased carbon dioxide forcing and summer insolation. The magnitude of abrupt temperature changes is larger in central Greenland (9° to 14°C) than in the northwest (5° to 9°C), fingerprinting a North Atlantic origin. Simulated changes in temperature seasonality closely track changes in the Atlantic overturning strength and support the hypothesis that abrupt climate change is mostly a winter phenomenon.

Biological response to millennial variability of dust and nutrient supply in the Subantarctic South Atlantic Ocean

Fluxes of lithogenic material and fluxes of three palaeo-productivity proxies (organic carbon, biogenic opal and alkenones) over the past 100,000 years were determined using the (230)Th-normalization method in three sediment cores from the Subantarctic South Atlantic Ocean. Features in the lithogenic flux record of each core correspond to similar features in the record of dust deposition in the EPICA Dome C ice core. Biogenic fluxes correlate with lithogenic fluxes in each sediment core. Our preferred interpretation is that South American dust, most probably from Patagonia, constitutes a major source of lithogenic material in Subantarctic South Atlantic sediments, and that past biological productivity in this region responded to variability in the supply of dust, probably due to biologically available iron carried by the dust. Greater nutrient supply as well as greater nutrient utilization (stimulated by dust) contributed to Subantarctic productivity during cold periods, in contrast to the region south of the Antarctic Polar Front (APF), where reduced nutrient supply during cold periods was the principal factor limiting productivity. The anti-phased patterns of productivity on opposite sides of the APF point to shifts in the physical supply of nutrients and to dust as cofactors regulating productivity in the Southern Ocean.

Rapid interhemispheric climate links via the Australasian monsoon during the last deglaciation

Recent studies have proposed that millennial-scale reorganization of the ocean-atmosphere circulation drives increased upwelling in the Southern Ocean, leading to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and ice age terminations. Southward migration of the global monsoon is thought to link the hemispheres during deglaciation, but vital evidence from the southern sector of the vast Australasian monsoon system is yet to emerge. Here we present a 230thorium-dated stalagmite oxygen isotope record of millennial-scale changes in Australian-Indonesian monsoon rainfall over the last 31,000 years. The record shows that abrupt southward shifts of the Australian-Indonesian monsoon were synchronous with North Atlantic cold intervals 17,600-11,500 years ago. The most prominent southward shift occurred in lock-step with Heinrich Stadial 1 (17,600-14,600 years ago), and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. Our findings show that millennial-scale climate change was transmitted rapidly across Australasia and lend support to the idea that the 3,000-year-long Heinrich 1 interval could have been critical in driving the last deglaciation.

Development of Middle Stone Age innovation linked to rapid climate change

The development of modernity in early human populations has been linked to pulsed phases of technological and behavioural innovation within the Middle Stone Age of South Africa. However, the trigger for these intermittent pulses of technological innovation is an enigma. Here we show that, contrary to some previous studies, the occurrence of innovation was tightly linked to abrupt climate change. Major innovational pulses occurred at times when South African climate changed rapidly towards more humid conditions, while northern sub-Saharan Africa experienced widespread droughts, as the Northern Hemisphere entered phases of extreme cooling. These millennial-scale teleconnections resulted from the bipolar seesaw behaviour of the Atlantic Ocean related to changes in the ocean circulation. These conditions led to humid pulses in South Africa and potentially to the creation of favourable environmental conditions. This strongly implies that innovational pulses of early modern human behaviour were climatically influenced and linked to the adoption of refugia.

The South African archaeological record contains evidence of the early flourishing of the human mind. Ziegler et al. provide new paleoclimate reconstructions, which suggest that rapid fluctuations in global climate have played a key role in the evolution of these early human cultures.

Asynchronous marine-terrestrial signals of the last deglacial warming in East Asia associated with low- and high-latitude climate changes

A high-resolution multiproxy record, including pollen, foraminifera, and alkenone paleothermometry, obtained from a single core (DG9603) from the Okinawa Trough, East China Sea (ECS), provided unambiguous evidence for asynchronous climate change between the land and ocean over the past 40 ka. On land, the deglacial stage was characterized by rapid warming, as reflected by paleovegetation, and it began ca. 15 kaBP, consistent with the timing of the last deglacial warming in Greenland. However, sea surface temperature estimates from foraminifera and alkenone paleothermometry increased around 20-19 kaBP, as in the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). Sea surface temperatures in the Okinawa Trough were influenced mainly by heat transport from the tropical western Pacific Ocean by the Kuroshio Current, but the epicontinental vegetation of the ECS was influenced by atmospheric circulation linked to the northern high-latitude climate. Asynchronous terrestrial and marine signals of the last deglacial warming in East Asia were thus clearly related to ocean currents and atmospheric circulation. We argue that (i) early warming seawater of the WPWP, driven by low-latitude insolation and trade winds, moved northward via the Kuroshio Current and triggered marine warming along the ECS around 20-19 kaBP similar to that in the WPWP, and (ii) an almost complete shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ca. 18-15 kaBP was associated with cold Heinrich stadial-1 and delayed terrestrial warming during the last deglacial warming until ca. 15 kaBP at northern high latitudes, and hence in East Asia. Terrestrial deglacial warming therefore lagged behind marine changes by ca. 3-4 ka.

Abrupt drainage cycles of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet

Continental ice sheets are a key component of the Earth's climate system, but their internal dynamics need to be further studied. Since the last deglaciation, the northern Eurasian Fennoscandian Ice Sheet (FIS) has been connected to the Black Sea (BS) watershed, making this basin a suitable location to investigate former ice-sheet dynamics. Here, from a core retrieved in the BS, we combine the use of neodymium isotopes, high-resolution elemental analysis, and biomarkers to trace changes in sediment provenance and river runoff. We reveal cyclic releases of meltwater originating from Lake Disna, a proglacial lake linked to the FIS during Heinrich Stadial 1. Regional interactions within the climate-lake-FIS system, linked to changes in the availability of subglacial water, led to abrupt drainage cycles of the FIS into the BS watershed. This phenomenon raised the BS water level by ∼100 m until the sill of the Bosphorus Strait was reached, flooding the vast northwestern BS shelf and deeply affecting the hydrology and circulation of the BS and, probably, of the Marmara and Aegean Seas.

Palaeoceanography: motivations and challenges for the future

The ocean interacts with the atmosphere, biosphere and cryosphere in a complex way, modulating climate through the storage and transport of heat, nutrients and carbon. As such, it is important that we understand the ways in which the ocean behaves and the factors that can lead to change. In order to gain this understanding, we need to look back into the past, on time scales from recent decadal-scale change, through the abrupt changes of the Pleistocene and back to times when the Earth's climate was significantly different than the Holocene. A key challenge facing the field of palaeoceanography is to combine data and modelling in a common framework. Coupling palaeo-data and models should improve our knowledge of how the Earth works, and perhaps of more direct societal relevance, might enable us to provide better predictive capabilities in climate modelling. In this discussion paper, we examine the motivations, past successes and challenges facing palaeoceanographic studies. We then suggest a number of areas and approaches that we believe will allow palaeoceanography to continue to provide new insights into processes that affect future climate change.

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation

The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO(2) and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO(2) in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO(2) during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO(2) concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.

Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum

Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.

800,000 years of abrupt climate variability

We constructed an 800,000-year synthetic record of Greenland climate variability based on the thermal bipolar seesaw model. Our Greenland analog reproduces much of the variability seen in the Greenland ice cores over the past 100,000 years. The synthetic record shows strong similarity with the absolutely dated speleothem record from China, allowing us to place ice core records within an absolute timeframe for the past 400,000 years. Hence, it provides both a stratigraphic reference and a conceptual basis for assessing the long-term evolution of millennial-scale variability and its potential role in climate change at longer time scales. Indeed, we provide evidence for a ubiquitous association between bipolar seesaw oscillations and glacial terminations throughout the Middle to Late Pleistocene.