Natural selection favoring more transmissible HIV detected in United States molecular transmission network

HIV molecular transmission networks among students in Guangxi: unraveling the dynamics of student-driven HIV epidemic

In Guangxi, the number of newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections among students is continuously increasing, highlighting the need for a detailed understanding of local transmission dynamics, particularly focusing on key drivers of transmission. We recruited individuals newly diagnosed with HIV-1 in Nanning, Guangxi, and amplified and sequenced the HIV-1 pol gene to construct a molecular network. Bayesian phylogenetic analysis was utilized to identify migration events, and multivariable logistic regression was employed to analyze factors influencing clustering and high linkage. The predominant subtype among students was CRF07_BC (58.5%), followed by CRF01_AE (17.4%) and CRF55_01B (13.5%). Transmission network analysis identified a significant clustering rate of 64.3% among students, primarily within large clusters. The strongest transmission relationships were observed between students and MSM aged 25-39, as well as nonstudent youths. These migration events primarily occurred from MSM aged 25-39 to students and nonstudent youths for CRF01_AE, CRF07_BC, and CRF55_01B. Qingxiu was the main emigration region for for CRF01_AE, CRF07_BC, while Xixiangtang for CRF55_01B. Link with nonstudent youths (AOR = 5.11) and MSM aged 25-39 (AOR = 8.82) were significant factors contributing to the high linkage among students. Long-term infection was a key factor in super spreaders. These findings emphasize the critical role of MSM aged 25-39 in HIV-1 transmission among local youths, particularly regarding long-term infected individuals. The study advocates for targeted HIV-1 screening and intervention strategies for youths to strengthen early detection and treatment, thereby mitigating further transmission within this high-risk group.

Characteristics of molecular epidemiology and transmitted drug resistance among newly diagnosed HIV-1 infections in Lishui, China from 2020 to 2023

BACKGROUND

Transmitted drug resistance (TDR) is becoming an obstacle to the success of antiretroviral therapy (ART) as the HIV epidemic continues to spread. This study aimed to investigate the characteristics of TDR and the molecular epidemiology of ART-naive HIV-1 infections in Lishui.

METHODS

A total of 481 plasma samples were collected from ART-naive HIV-1 infections in Lishui between 2020 and 2023. The sequences acquired from infections were used to analyze the characteristics of genotype, TDR, and molecular transmission network.

RESULTS

This study discovered that the three most prevalent subtypes among the 455 sequences successfully obtained from infections in Lishui were CRF08_BC (35.8%), CRF07_BC (26.4%), and CRF01_AE (25.9%). The overall prevalence of TDR was 12.1%, and the K103N (2.4%) was the most frequent mutation. Multivariate analysis showed that CRF08_BC (OR = 5.401, P < 0.001) and CD4+ cell concentration of 200-499 cells/µL (OR = 1.684, P = 0.030) were associated with a higher risk of entering the molecular transmission network and clustering, whereas the current address in other cities (OR = 0.328, P = 0.004), junior middle school (OR = 0.472, P = 0.006), and junior college or above (OR = 0.387, P = 0.045) were associated with a lower risk of clustering.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed that the prevalence of TDR was at an intermediate level of drug resistance, and high levels of resistance were predominantly concentrated in efavirenz (EFV) and nevirapine (NVP) among the NNRTIs. Middle-aged and older infections represented a significant proportion of the molecular transmission network. This suggests that HIV surveillance and targeted prevention and treatment interventions are essential to reduce the risk of HIV transmission.

Molecular network analysis for detecting HIV transmission clusters: insights and implications

Objective

In order to improve knowledge of HIV transmission dynamics and guide preventive and control strategies, this work uses molecular cluster analysis to objectively detect clusters of HIV genetic sequence similarity.

Methods

89 HIV-positive couples provided blood samples, and plasma was separated for pol region gene sequence amplification. Furthermore, analyzed HIV-1 pol fragment sequences from Nanjing patients between 2015 and 2019. HYPHY and Cytoscape were used to generate and illustrate molecular networks.

Results

In this investigation of 89 double-positive pairs, it was discovered that the pairwise gene distance approach properly detected 82.02% of positive couples at an ideal gene distance of 0.014 substitution/loci. With an accuracy of 86.25%, the optimal parameter for the phylogenetic tree and gene distance approach was 90 + 0.045 substitution/loci. A molecular network was built for the Nanjing samples (2015-2019) using the optimum threshold of the previous technique. This network had 487 sequences with one misconnected cluster. There were 565 sequences in the network created by the latter approach that were not incorrectly connected.

Conclusion

For HIV research, molecular cluster analysis provides novel insights. It helps with preventive and control methods by objectively identifying clusters with comparable genetic sequences, which enhances our knowledge of HIV transmission. Further developments will increase its importance for HIV/AIDS research and worldwide prevention.

Improvement in the 95-95-95 Targets Is Accompanied by a Reduction in Both the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission Rate and Incidence in China

BACKGROUND

In 2016, China has implemented the World Health Organization's "treat all" policy. We aimed to assess the impact of significant improvements in the 95-95-95 targets on population-level human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission dynamics and incidence.

METHODS

We focused on 3 steps of the HIV care continuum: diagnosed, on antiretroviral therapy, and achieving viral suppression. The molecular transmission clusters were inferred using HIV-TRACE. New HIV infections were estimated using the incidence method in the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control HIV Modelling Tool.

RESULTS

Between 2004 and 2023, the national HIV epidemiology database recorded 2.99 billion person-times of HIV tests and identified 1 976 878 new diagnoses. We noted a roughly "inverted-V" curve in the clustering frequency, with the peak recorded in 2014 (67.1% [95% confidence interval, 63.7%-70.5%]), concurrent with a significant improvement in the 95-95-95 targets from 10-13-<71 in 2005 to 84-93-97 in 2022. Furthermore, we observed a parabolic curve for a new infection with the vertex occurring in 2010.

CONCLUSIONS

In general, it was suggested that the improvements in the 95-95-95 targets were accompanied by a reduction in both the population-level HIV transmission rate and incidence. Thus, China should allocate more effort to the first "95" target to achieve a balanced 95-95-95 target.

Complexity and Variation in Infectious Disease Birth Cohorts: Findings from HIV+ Medicare and Medicaid Beneficiaries, 1999-2020

The impact of uncertainty in information systems is difficult to assess, especially when drawing conclusions from human observation records. In this study, we investigate survival variation in a population experiencing infectious disease as a proxy to investigate uncertainty problems. Using Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services claims, we discovered 1,543,041 HIV+ persons, 363,425 of whom were observed dying from all-cause mortality. Once aggregated by HIV status, year of birth and year of death, Age-Period-Cohort disambiguation and regression models were constructed to produce explanations of variance in survival. We used Age-Period-Cohort as an alternative method to work around under-observed features of uncertainty like infection transmission, receiver host dynamics or comorbidity noise impacting survival variation. We detected ages that have a consistent, disproportionate share of deaths independent of study year or year of birth. Variation in seasonality of mortality appeared stable in regression models; in turn, HIV cases in the United States do not have a survival gain when uncertainty is uncontrolled for. Given the information complexity issues under observed exposure and transmission, studies of infectious diseases should either include robust decedent cases, observe transmission physics or avoid drawing conclusions about survival from human observation records.

Evolving molecular HIV clusters revealed genotype-specific dynamics in Guangzhou, China (2008-2020)

OBJECTIVES

This study investigated the genotype-specific dynamics of molecular HIV clusters (MHCs) in Guangzhou, China, aiming to enhance HIV control.

METHODS

HIV pol sequences from people with HIV (PWH) in Guangzhou (2008-2020) were obtained for genotyping and molecular network creation. MHCs were identified and categorized into three types: emerging, growing, or stable. Clustering rates, proportions of cluster types, and members within each type were calculated and their trends were assessed using joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

Among 8395 PWH, the most prevalent HIV-1 genotypes were CRF07_BC (39.7%) and CRF01_AE (32.6%). The genotype composition has been stable since 2012 (Ps > 0.05). The overall clustering rate was 43.3%, with significant variations across genotypes (P < 0.001), indicating genotype-specific transmission fitness. Significant declines in overall and genotype-specific clustering rates toward the end of 2020 (Ps < 0.05), potentially offer support for HIV control efforts in reducing local infections. The continuously increasing proportions of stable clusters and the gradually decreasing proportions of emerging and growing clusters (either Ps < 0.05 or Ps > 0.05) suggest a trend toward stable molecular network structure. However, growing clusters exhibited CRF55_01B, CRF07_BC, and CRF59_01B dominance that indicate their priority for interventions.

CONCLUSION

The evolving MHCs highlight the genotype-specific cluster dynamics, providing fresh insights for enhanced prevention and control strategies.

The evolution of envelope function during coinfection with phylogenetically distinct human immunodeficiency virus

BACKGROUND

Coinfection with two phylogenetically distinct Human Immunodeficiency Virus-1 (HIV-1) variants might provide an opportunity for rapid viral expansion and the emergence of fit variants that drive disease progression. However, autologous neutralising immune responses are known to drive Envelope (Env) diversity which can either enhance replicative capacity, have no effect, or reduce viral fitness. This study investigated whether in vivo outgrowth of coinfecting variants was linked to pseudovirus and infectious molecular clones' infectivity to determine whether diversification resulted in more fit virus with the potential to increase disease progression.

RESULTS

For most participants, emergent recombinants displaced the co-transmitted variants and comprised the major population at 52 weeks postinfection with significantly higher entry efficiency than other co-circulating viruses. Our findings suggest that recombination within gp41 might have enhanced Env fusogenicity which contributed to the increase in pseudovirus entry efficiency. Finally, there was a significant correlation between pseudovirus entry efficiency and CD4 + T cell count, suggesting that the enhanced replicative capacity of recombinant variants could result in more virulent viruses.

CONCLUSION

Coinfection provides variants with the opportunity to undergo rapid recombination that results in more infectious virus. This highlights the importance of monitoring the replicative fitness of emergent viruses.

Phylogenetic signatures reveal multilevel selection and fitness costs in SARS-CoV-2

Background

Large-scale sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 has enabled the study of viral evolution during the COVID-19 pandemic. Some viral mutations may be advantageous to viral replication within hosts but detrimental to transmission, thus carrying a transient fitness advantage. By affecting the number of descendants, persistence times and growth rates of associated clades, these mutations generate localised imbalance in phylogenies. Quantifying these features in closely-related clades with and without recurring mutations can elucidate the tradeoffs between within-host replication and between-host transmission.

Methods

We implemented a novel phylogenetic clustering algorithm ( mlscluster, https://github.com/mrc-ide/mlscluster) to systematically explore time-scaled phylogenies for mutations under transient/multilevel selection. We applied this method to a SARS-CoV-2 time-calibrated phylogeny with >1.2 million sequences from England, and characterised these recurrent mutations that may influence transmission fitness across PANGO-lineages and genomic regions using Poisson regressions and summary statistics.

Results

We found no major differences across two epidemic stages (before and after Omicron), PANGO-lineages, and genomic regions. However, spike, nucleocapsid, and ORF3a were proportionally more enriched for transmission fitness polymorphisms (TFP)-homoplasies than other proteins. We provide a catalog of SARS-CoV-2 sites under multilevel selection, which can guide experimental investigations within and beyond the spike protein.

Conclusions

This study provides empirical evidence for the existence of important tradeoffs between within-host replication and between-host transmission shaping the fitness landscape of SARS-CoV-2. This method may be used as a fast and scalable means to shortlist large sequence databases for sites under putative multilevel selection which may warrant subsequent confirmatory analyses and experimental confirmation.

Unveiling ecological/evolutionary insights in HIV viral load dynamics: Allowing random slopes to observe correlational changes to CpG-contents and other molecular and clinical predictors

In the context of infectious diseases, the dynamic interplay between ever-changing host populations and viral biology demands a more flexible modeling approach than common fixed correlations. Embracing random-effects regression models allows for a nuanced understanding of the intricate ecological and evolutionary dynamics underlying complex phenomena, offering valuable insights into disease progression and transmission patterns. In this article, we employed a random-effects regression to model an observed decreasing median plasma viral load (pVL) among individuals with HIV in Mexico City during 2019-2021. We identified how these functional slope changes (i.e. random slopes by year) improved predictions of the observed pVL median changes between 2019 and 2021, leading us to hypothesize underlying ecological and evolutionary factors. Our analysis involved a dataset of pVL values from 7325 ART-naïve individuals living with HIV, accompanied by their associated clinical and viral molecular predictors. A conventional fixed-effects linear model revealed significant correlations between pVL and predictors that evolved over time. However, this fixed-effects model could not fully explain the reduction in median pVL; thus, prompting us to adopt random-effects models. After applying a random effects regression model-with random slopes and intercepts by year-, we observed potential "functional changes" within the local HIV viral population, highlighting the importance of ecological and evolutionary considerations in HIV dynamics: A notably stronger negative correlation emerged between HIV pVL and the CpG content in the pol gene, suggesting a changing immune landscape influenced by CpG-induced innate immune responses that could impact viral load dynamics. Our study underscores the significance of random effects models in capturing dynamic correlations and the crucial role of molecular characteristics like CpG content. By enriching our understanding of changing host-virus interactions and HIV progression, our findings contribute to the broader relevance of such models in infectious disease research. They shed light on the changing interplay between host and pathogen, driving us closer to more effective strategies for managing infectious diseases. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY: This study highlights a decreasing trend in median plasma viral loads among ART-naïve individuals living with HIV in Mexico City between 2019 and 2021. It uncovers various predictors significantly correlated with pVL, shedding light on the complex interplay between host-virus interactions and disease progression. By employing a random-slopes model, the researchers move beyond traditional fixed-effects models to better capture dynamic correlations and evolutionary changes in HIV dynamics. The discovery of a stronger negative correlation between pVL and CpG content in HIV-pol sequences suggests potential changes in the immune landscape and innate immune responses, opening avenues for further research into adaptive changes and responses to environmental shifts in the context of HIV infection. The study's emphasis on molecular characteristics as predictors of pVL adds valuable insights to epidemiological and evolutionary studies of viruses, providing new avenues for understanding and managing HIV infection at the population level.

Exploring Dynamic Changes in HIV-1 Molecular Transmission Networks and Key Influencing Factors: Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

The HIV-1 molecular network is an innovative tool, using gene sequences to understand transmission attributes and complementing social and sexual network studies. While previous research focused on static network characteristics, recent studies' emphasis on dynamic features enhances our understanding of real-time changes, offering insights for targeted interventions and efficient allocation of public health resources.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to identify the dynamic changes occurring in HIV-1 molecular transmission networks and analyze the primary influencing factors driving the dynamics of HIV-1 molecular networks.

METHODS

We analyzed and compared the dynamic changes in the molecular network over a specific time period between the baseline and observed end point. The primary factors influencing the dynamic changes in the HIV-1 molecular network were identified through univariate analysis and multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 955 HIV-1 polymerase fragments were successfully amplified from 1013 specimens; CRF01_AE and CRF07_BC were the predominant subtypes, accounting for 40.8% (n=390) and 33.6% (n=321) of the specimens, respectively. Through the analysis and comparison of the basic and terminal molecular networks, it was discovered that 144 sequences constituted static molecular networks, and 487 sequences contributed to the formation of dynamic molecular networks. The findings of the multivariate analysis indicated that the factors occupation as a student, floating population, Han ethnicity, engagement in occasional or multiple sexual partnerships, participation in anal sex, and being single were independent risk factors for the dynamic changes observed in the HIV-1 molecular network, and the odds ratio (OR; 95% CIs) values were 2.63 (1.54-4.47), 1.83 (1.17-2.84), 2.91 (1.09-7.79), 1.75 (1.06-2.90), 4.12 (2.48-6.87), 5.58 (2.43-12.80), and 2.10 (1.25-3.54), respectively. Heterosexuality and homosexuality seem to exhibit protective effects when compared to bisexuality, with OR values of 0.12 (95% CI 0.05-0.32) and 0.26 (95% CI 0.11-0.64), respectively. Additionally, the National Eight-Item score and sex education experience were also identified as protective factors against dynamic changes in the HIV-1 molecular network, with OR values of 0.12 (95% CI 0.05-0.32) and 0.26 (95% CI 0.11-0.64), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The HIV-1 molecular network analysis showed 144 sequences in static networks and 487 in dynamic networks. Multivariate analysis revealed that occupation as a student, floating population, Han ethnicity, and risky sexual behavior were independent risk factors for dynamic changes, while heterosexuality and homosexuality were protective compared to bisexuality. A higher National Eight-Item score and sex education experience were also protective factors. The identification of HIV dynamic molecular networks has provided valuable insights into the characteristics of individuals undergoing dynamic alterations. These findings contribute to a better understanding of HIV-1 transmission dynamics and could inform targeted prevention strategies.

High HIV diversity, recombination, and superinfection revealed in a large outbreak among persons who inject drugs in Kentucky and Ohio, USA

We investigated transmission dynamics of a large human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) outbreak among persons who inject drugs (PWID) in KY and OH during 2017-20 by using detailed phylogenetic, network, recombination, and cluster dating analyses. Using polymerase (pol) sequences from 193 people associated with the investigation, we document high HIV-1 diversity, including Subtype B (44.6 per cent); numerous circulating recombinant forms (CRFs) including CRF02_AG (2.5 per cent) and CRF02_AG-like (21.8 per cent); and many unique recombinant forms composed of CRFs with major subtypes and sub-subtypes [CRF02_AG/B (24.3 per cent), B/CRF02_AG/B (0.5 per cent), and A6/D/B (6.4 per cent)]. Cluster analysis of sequences using a 1.5 per cent genetic distance identified thirteen clusters, including a seventy-five-member cluster composed of CRF02_AG-like and CRF02_AG/B, an eighteen-member CRF02_AG/B cluster, Subtype B clusters of sizes ranging from two to twenty-three, and a nine-member A6/D and A6/D/B cluster. Recombination and phylogenetic analyses identified CRF02_AG/B variants with ten unique breakpoints likely originating from Subtype B and CRF02_AG-like viruses in the largest clusters. The addition of contact tracing results from OH to the genetic networks identified linkage between persons with Subtype B, CRF02_AG, and CRF02_AG/B sequences in the clusters supporting de novo recombinant generation. Superinfection prevalence was 13.3 per cent (8/60) in persons with multiple specimens and included infection with B and CRF02_AG; B and CRF02_AG/B; or B and A6/D/B. In addition to the presence of multiple, distinct molecular clusters associated with this outbreak, cluster dating inferred transmission associated with the largest molecular cluster occurred as early as 2006, with high transmission rates during 2017-8 in certain other molecular clusters. This outbreak among PWID in KY and OH was likely driven by rapid transmission of multiple HIV-1 variants including de novo viral recombinants from circulating viruses within the community. Our findings documenting the high HIV-1 transmission rate and clustering through partner services and molecular clusters emphasize the importance of leveraging multiple different data sources and analyses, including those from disease intervention specialist investigations, to better understand outbreak dynamics and interrupt HIV spread.

Leveraging social networks for identification of people with HIV who are virally unsuppressed

OBJECTIVES

This study investigates primary peer-referral engagement (PRE) strategies to assess which strategy results in engaging higher numbers of people with HIV (PWH) who are virally unsuppressed.

DESIGN

We develop a modeling study that simulates an HIV epidemic (transmission, disease progression, and viral evolution) over 6 years using an agent-based model followed by simulating PRE strategies. We investigate two PRE strategies where referrals are based on social network strategies (SNS) or sexual partner contact tracing (SPCT).

METHODS

We parameterize, calibrate, and validate our study using data from Chicago on Black sexual minority men to assess these strategies for a population with high incidence and prevalence of HIV. For each strategy, we calculate the number of PWH recruited who are undiagnosed or out-of-care (OoC) and the number of direct or indirect transmissions.

RESULTS

SNS and SPCT identified 256.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 234-279] and 15 (95% CI 7-27) PWH, respectively. Of these, SNS identified 159 (95% CI 142-177) PWH OoC and 32 (95% CI 21-43) PWH undiagnosed compared with 9 (95% CI 3-18) and 2 (95% CI 0-5) for SPCT. SNS identified 15.5 (95% CI 6-25) and 7.5 (95% CI 2-11) indirect and direct transmission pairs, whereas SPCT identified 6 (95% CI 0-8) and 5 (95% CI 0-8), respectively.

CONCLUSION

With no testing constraints, SNS is the more effective strategy to identify undiagnosed and OoC PWH. Neither strategy is successful at identifying sufficient indirect or direct transmission pairs to investigate transmission networks.

High Genetic Diversity of HIV-1 and Active Transmission Clusters among Male-to-Male Sexual Contacts (MMSCs) in Zhuhai, China

Monitoring genetic diversity and recent HIV infections (RHIs) is critical for understanding HIV epidemiology. Here, we report HIV-1 genetic diversity and RHIs in blood samples from 190 HIV-positive MMSCs in Zhuhai, China. MMSCs with newly reported HIV were enrolled from January 2020 to June 2022. A nested PCR was performed to amplify the HIV polymerase gene fragments at HXB2 positions 2604-3606. We constructed genetic transmission network at both 0.5% and 1.5% distance thresholds using the Tamura-Nei93 model. RHIs were identified using a recent infection testing algorithm (RITA) combining limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay (LAg-EIA) assay with clinical data. The results revealed that 19.5% (37/190) were RHIs and 48.4% (92/190) were CRF07_BC. Two clusters were identified at a 0.5% distance threshold. Among them, one was infected with CRF07_BC for the long term, and the other was infected with CRF55_01B recently. We identified a total of 15 clusters at a 1.5% distance threshold. Among them, nine were infected with CRF07_BC subtype, and RHIs were found in 38.8% (19/49) distributed in eight genetic clusters. We identified a large active transmission cluster (n = 10) infected with a genetic variant, CRF79_0107. The multivariable logistic regression model showed that clusters were more likely to be RHIs (adjusted OR: 3.64, 95% CI: 1.51~9.01). The RHI algorithm can help to identify recent or ongoing transmission clusters where the prevention tools are mostly needed. Prompt public health measures are needed to contain the further spread of active transmission clusters.

Do pathogens always evolve to be less virulent? The virulence–transmission trade-off in light of the COVID-19 pandemic

The direction the evolution of virulence takes in connection with any pathogen is a long-standing question. Formerly, it was theorized that pathogens should always evolve to be less virulent. As observations were not in line with this theoretical outcome, new theories emerged, chief among them the transmission–virulence trade-off hypotheses, which predicts an intermediate level of virulence as the endpoint of evolution. At the moment, we are very much interested in the future evolution of COVID-19’s virulence. Here, we show that the disease does not fulfill all the assumptions of the hypothesis. In the case of COVID-19, a higher viral load does not mean a higher risk of death; immunity is not long-lasting; other hosts can act as reservoirs for the virus; and death as a consequence of viral infection does not shorten the infectious period. Consequently, we cannot predict the short- or long-term evolution of the virulence of COVID-19.

New cyanobacterial genus Argonema is hidding in soil crusts around the world

Cyanobacteria are crucial primary producers in soil and soil crusts. However, their biodiversity in these habitats remains poorly understood, especially in the tropical and polar regions. We employed whole genome sequencing, morphology, and ecology to describe a novel cyanobacterial genus Argonema isolated from Antarctica. Extreme environments are renowned for their relatively high number of endemic species, but whether cyanobacteria are endemic or not is open to much current debate. To determine if a cyanobacterial lineage is endemic is a time consuming, elaborate, and expensive global sampling effort. Thus, we propose an approach that will help to overcome the limits of the sampling effort and better understand the global distribution of cyanobacterial clades. We employed a Sequencing Read Archive, which provides a rich source of data from thousands of environmental samples. We developed a framework for a characterization of the global distribution of any microbial species using Sequencing Read Archive. Using this approach, we found that Argonema is actually cosmopolitan in arid regions. It provides further evidence that endemic microbial taxa are likely to be much rarer than expected.

Phylogenetic estimation of the viral fitness landscape of HIV-1 set-point viral load

Set-point viral load (SPVL), a common measure of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1 virulence, is partially determined by viral genotype. Epidemiological evidence suggests that this viral property has been under stabilising selection, with a typical optimum for the virus between 104 and 105 copies of viral RNA per ml. Here we aimed to detect transmission fitness differences between viruses from individuals with different SPVLs directly from phylogenetic trees inferred from whole-genome sequences. We used the local branching index (LBI) as a proxy for transmission fitness. We found that LBI is more sensitive to differences in infectiousness than to differences in the duration of the infectious state. By analysing subtype-B samples from the Bridging the Evolution and Epidemiology of HIV in Europe project, we inferred a significant positive relationship between SPVL and LBI up to approximately 105 copies/ml, with some evidence for a peak around this value of SPVL. This is evidence of selection against low values of SPVL in HIV-1 subtype-B strains, likely related to lower infectiousness, and perhaps a peak in the transmission fitness in the expected range of SPVL. The less prominent signatures of selection against higher SPVL could be explained by an inherent limit of the method or the deployment of antiretroviral therapy.

CRF07_BC is associated with slow HIV disease progression in Chinese patients

HIV subtypes convey important epidemiological information and possibly influence the rate of disease progression. In this study, HIV disease progression in patients infected with CRF01_AE, CRF07_BC, and subtype B was compared in the largest HIV molecular epidemiology study ever done in China. A national data set of HIV pol sequences was assembled by pooling sequences from public databases and the Beijing HIV laboratory network. Logistic regression was used to assess factors associated with the risk of AIDS at diagnosis ([AIDSAD], defined as a CD4 count < 200 cells/µL) in patients with HIV subtype B, CRF01_AE, and CRF07_BC. Of the 20,663 sequences, 9,156 (44.3%) were CRF01_AE. CRF07_BC was responsible for 28.3% of infections, followed by B (13.9%). In multivariable analysis, the risk of AIDSAD differed significantly according to HIV subtype (OR for CRF07_BC vs. B: 0.46, 95% CI 0.39─0.53), age (OR for ≥ 65 years vs. < 18 years: 4.3 95% CI 1.81─11.8), and transmission risk groups (OR for men who have sex with men vs. heterosexuals: 0.67 95% CI 0.6─0.75). These findings suggest that HIV diversity in China is constantly evolving and gaining in complexity. CRF07_BC is less pathogenic than subtype B, while CRF01_AE is as pathogenic as B.

When viruses become more virulent

[Figure: see text].

A highly virulent variant of HIV-1 circulating in the Netherlands

We discovered a highly virulent variant of subtype-B HIV-1 in the Netherlands. One hundred nine individuals with this variant had a 0.54 to 0.74 log₁₀ increase (i.e., a ~3.5-fold to 5.5-fold increase) in viral load compared with, and exhibited CD4 cell decline twice as fast as, 6604 individuals with other subtype-B strains. Without treatment, advanced HIV-CD4 cell counts below 350 cells per cubic millimeter, with long-term clinical consequences-is expected to be reached, on average, 9 months after diagnosis for individuals in their thirties with this variant. Age, sex, suspected mode of transmission, and place of birth for the aforementioned 109 individuals were typical for HIV-positive people in the Netherlands, which suggests that the increased virulence is attributable to the viral strain. Genetic sequence analysis suggests that this variant arose in the 1990s from de novo mutation, not recombination, with increased transmissibility and an unfamiliar molecular mechanism of virulence.

HIV Cluster and Outbreak Detection and Response: The Science and Experience

The Respond pillar of the Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S. initiative, which consists of activities also known as cluster and outbreak detection and response, offers a framework to guide tailored implementation of proven HIV prevention strategies where transmission is occurring most rapidly. Cluster and outbreak response involves understanding the networks in which rapid transmission is occurring; linking people in the network to essential services; and identifying and addressing gaps in programs and services such as testing, HIV and other medical care, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and syringe services programs. This article reviews the experience gained through 30 HIV cluster and outbreak responses in North America during 2000-2020 to describe approaches for implementing these core response strategies. Numerous jurisdictions that have implemented these response strategies have demonstrated success in improving outcomes related to HIV care and viral suppression, testing, use of prevention services, and reductions in transmission or new diagnoses. Efforts to address important gaps in service delivery revealed by cluster and outbreak detection and response can strengthen prevention efforts broadly through multidisciplinary, multisector collaboration. In this way, the Respond pillar embodies the collaborative, data-guided approach that is critical to the overall success of the Ending the HIV Epidemic in the U.S. initiative.

Longitudinal typing of molecular HIV clusters in a statewide epidemic

BACKGROUND

HIV molecular epidemiology is increasingly integrated into public health prevention. We conducted cluster typing to enhance characterization of a densely sampled statewide epidemic towards informing public health.

METHODS

We identified HIV clusters, categorized them into types, and evaluated their dynamics between 2004 and 2019 in Rhode Island. We grouped sequences by diagnosis year, assessed cluster changes between paired phylogenies, t0 and t1, representing adjacent years and categorized clusters as stable (cluster in t0 phylogeny = cluster in t1 phylogeny) or unstable (cluster in t0 ≠ cluster in t1). Unstable clusters were further categorized as emerging (t1 phylogeny only) or growing (larger in t1 phylogeny). We determined proportions of each cluster type, of individuals in each cluster type, and of newly diagnosed individuals in each cluster type, and assessed trends over time.

RESULTS

A total of 1727 individuals with available HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences were diagnosed in Rhode Island by 2019. Over time, stable clusters and individuals in them dominated the epidemic, increasing over time, with reciprocally decreasing unstable clusters and individuals in them. Conversely, proportions of newly diagnosed individuals in unstable clusters significantly increased. Within unstable clusters, proportions of emerging clusters and of individuals in them declined; whereas proportions of newly diagnosed individuals in growing clusters significantly increased over time.

CONCLUSION

Distinct molecular cluster types were identified in the Rhode Island epidemic. Cluster dynamics demonstrated increasing stable and decreasing unstable clusters driven by growing, rather than emerging clusters, suggesting consistent in-state transmission networks. Cluster typing could inform public health beyond conventional approaches and direct interventions.

The Role of Phylogenetics in Unravelling Patterns of HIV Transmission towards Epidemic Control: The Quebec Experience (2002-2020)

Phylogenetics has been advanced as a structural framework to infer evolving trends in the regional spread of HIV-1 and guide public health interventions. In Quebec, molecular network analyses tracked HIV transmission dynamics from 2002-2020 using MEGA10-Neighbour-joining, HIV-TRACE, and MicrobeTrace methodologies. Phylogenetics revealed three patterns of viral spread among Men having Sex with Men (MSM, n = 5024) and heterosexuals (HET, n = 1345) harbouring subtype B epidemics as well as B and non-B subtype epidemics (n = 1848) introduced through migration. Notably, half of new subtype B infections amongst MSM and HET segregating as solitary transmissions or small cluster networks (2-5 members) declined by 70% from 2006-2020, concomitant to advances in treatment-as-prevention. Nonetheless, subtype B epidemic control amongst MSM was thwarted by the ongoing genesis and expansion of super-spreader large cluster variants leading to micro-epidemics, averaging 49 members/cluster at the end of 2020. The growth of large clusters was related to forward transmission cascades of untreated early-stage infections, younger at-risk populations, more transmissible/replicative-competent strains, and changing demographics. Subtype B and non-B subtype infections introduced through recent migration now surpass the domestic epidemic amongst MSM. Phylodynamics can assist in predicting and responding to active, recurrent, and newly emergent large cluster networks, as well as the cryptic spread of HIV introduced through migration.

Lamivudine improves cognitive decline in SAMP8 mice: Integrating in vivo pharmacological evaluation and network pharmacology

The reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as lamivudine (3TC) play important roles in anti‐ageing, but their effects on neurodegenerative diseases caused by ageing are not clear, especially on the functions of the nervous system such as cognition. In this study, we administered 3TC to senescence‐accelerated mouse prone 8 (SAMP8) mice by gastric perfusion (100 mg/kg) for 4 weeks. Our results showed that 3TC significantly improved the ageing status of SAMP8 mice, especially the decline of cognitive ability evaluated by the Morris water maze test. To further investigate the molecular mechanisms of improving the ageing status of SAMP8 mice by 3TC, the qPCR and tissue staining methods were used to study the brain tissues (i.e., hippocampus and cortex) of mice, while the network pharmacology analysis was applied to investigate the potential targets of 3TC. The results showed that the mRNA levels of genes related to long interspersed element‐1, type 1 interferon response, the senescence‐associated secretion phenotype and the Alzheimer's disease in the hippocampus and cortex of SAMP8 mice were increased due to senescence, but this trend was reversed partially by 3TC. Results of histological studies showed that 3TC reduced the death of hippocampal neurons, while the results of network pharmacology analysis indicated that 3TC may exert its influence through multiple pathways, including the oestrogen signalling and the PI3K/Akt and neuroactive ligand‐receptor interaction signalling pathways, which we have verified through in vitro experiments. These findings provide evidence for the therapeutic potential of 3TC in the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases.

SARS-CoV-2 Molecular Transmission Clusters and Containment Measures in Ten European Regions during the First Pandemic Wave

Background: The spatiotemporal profiling of molecular transmission clusters (MTCs) using viral genomic data can effectively identify transmission networks in order to inform public health actions targeting SARS-CoV-2 spread. Methods: We used whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences derived from ten European regions belonging to eight countries to perform phylogenetic and phylodynamic analysis. We developed dedicated bioinformatics pipelines to identify regional MTCs and to assess demographic factors potentially associated with their formation. Results: The total number and the scale of MTCs varied from small household clusters identified in all regions, to a super-spreading event found in Uusimaa-FI. Specific age groups were more likely to belong to MTCs in different regions. The clustered sequences referring to the age groups 50–100 years old (y.o.) were increased in all regions two weeks after the establishment of the lockdown, while those referring to the age group 0–19 y.o. decreased only in those regions where schools’ closure was combined with a lockdown. Conclusions: The spatiotemporal profiling of the SARS-CoV-2 MTCs can be a useful tool to monitor the effectiveness of the interventions and to reveal cryptic transmissions that have not been identified through contact tracing.

Test-and-treat coverage and HIV virulence evolution among men who have sex with men

HIV set point viral load (SPVL), the viral load established shortly after initial infection, is a proxy for HIV virulence: higher SPVLs lead to higher risk of transmission and faster disease progression. Three models of test-and-treat scenarios, mainly in heterosexual populations, found that increasing treatment coverage selected for more virulent viruses. We modeled virulence evolution in a population of men who have sex with men (MSM) with increasing test-and-treat coverage. We extended a stochastic, dynamic network model (EvoNetHIV). We varied relationship patterns (MSM vs. heterosexual), HIV transmission models (increasing vs. plateauing probability of transmission at very high viral loads), and treatment roll-out (with explicit testing or fixed intervals between infection and treatment). In scenarios most similar to previous models (longer relational durations and the plateauing transmission function), we replicated trends previously found: increasing treatment coverage led to increased virulence (0.12 log10 increase in mean population SPVL between 20% and 100% treatment coverage). In scenarios reflecting MSM behavioral data using the increasing transmission function, increasing treatment coverage selected for viruses with lower virulence (0.16 log10 decrease in mean population SPVL between 20% and 100% treatment coverage). These findings emphasize the impact of sexual network conditions and transmission function details on predicted epidemiological and evolutionary outcomes. Varying these features creates very different evolutionary environments, which in turn lead to opposite effects in mean population SPVL evolution. Our results suggest that, under some realistic conditions, effective test-and-treat strategies may not face the previously reported tradeoff in which increasing coverage leads to evolution of greater virulence. This suggests instead that a virtuous cycle of increasing treatment coverage and diminishing virulence is possible.

The Relationship Between the Human Immunodeficiency Virus-1 Transmission Network and the HIV Care Continuum in Los Angeles County

BACKGROUND

Public health action combating human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) includes facilitating navigation through the HIV continuum of care: timely diagnosis followed by linkage to care and initiation of antiretroviral therapy to suppress viral replication. Molecular epidemiology can identify rapidly growing HIV genetic transmission clusters. How progression through the care continuum relates to transmission clusters has not been previously characterized.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective study on HIV surveillance data from 5226 adult cases in Los Angeles County diagnosed from 2010 through 2014. Genetic transmission clusters were constructed using HIV-TRACE. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the impact of transmission cluster growth on the time intervals between care continuum events. Gamma frailty models incorporated the effect of heterogeneity associated with genetic transmission clusters.

RESULTS

In contrast to our expectations, there were no differences in time to the care continuum events among individuals in clusters with different growth dynamics. However, upon achieving viral suppression, individuals in high growth clusters were slower to experience viral rebound (hazard ratio 0.83, P = .011) compared with individuals in low growth clusters. Heterogeneity associated with cluster membership in the timing to each event in the care continuum was highly significant (P < .001), with and without adjustment for transmission risk and demographics.

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals within the same transmission cluster have more similar trajectories through the HIV care continuum than those across transmission clusters. These findings suggest molecular epidemiology can assist public health officials in identifying clusters of individuals who may benefit from assistance in navigating the HIV care continuum.

Assessing the evolutionary persistence of ecological relationships: A review and preview

Species interactions, such as pollination, parasitism and predation, form the basis of functioning ecosystems. The origins and resilience of such interactions therefore merit attention. However, fossils only occasionally document ancient interactions, and phylogenetic methods are blind to recent interactions. Is there some other way to track shared species experiences? "Comparative demography" examines when pairs of species jointly thrived or declined. By forging links between ecology, epidemiology, and evolutionary biology, this method sheds light on biological adaptation, species resilience, and ecosystem health. Here, we describe how this method works, discuss examples, and suggest future directions in hopes of inspiring interest, imitators, and critics.

High frequency of new recombinant forms in HIV-1 transmission networks demonstrated by full genome sequencing

The HIV-1 epidemic in Belgium is primarily driven by MSM. In this patient population subtype B predominates but an increasing presence of non-B subtypes has been reported. We aimed to define to what extent the increasing subtype heterogeneity in a high at risk population induces the formation and spread of new recombinant forms. The study focused on transmission networks that reflect the local transmission to an important extent. One hundred and five HIV-1 transmission clusters were identified after phylogenetic analysis of 2849 HIV-1 pol sequences generated for the purpose of baseline drug resistance testing between 2013 and 2017. Of these 105 clusters, 62 extended in size during the last two years and were therefore considered as representing ongoing transmission. These 62 clusters included 774 patients in total. From each cluster between 1 and 3 representative patients were selected for near full-length viral genome sequencing. In total, the full genome sequence of 101 patients was generated. Indications for the presence of a new recombinant form were found for 10 clusters. These 10 clusters represented 105 patients or 13.6% of the patients covered by the study. The findings clearly show that new recombinant strains highly contribute to local transmission, even in an epidemic that is largely MSM and subtype B driven. This is an evolution that needs to be monitored as reshuffling of genome fragments through recombination may influence the transmissibility of the virus and the pathology of the infection. In addition, important changes in the sequence of the viral genome may challenge the performance of tests used for diagnosis, patient monitoring and drug resistance analysis.

Molecular network-based intervention brings us closer to ending the HIV pandemic

Precise identification of HIV transmission among populations is a key step in public health responses. However, the HIV transmission network is usually difficult to determine. HIV molecular networks can be determined by phylogenetic approach, genetic distance-based approach, and a combination of both approaches. These approaches are increasingly used to identify transmission networks among populations, reconstruct the history of HIV spread, monitor the dynamics of HIV transmission, guide targeted intervention on key subpopulations, and assess the effects of interventions. Simulation and retrospective studies have demonstrated that these molecular network-based interventions are more cost-effective than random or traditional interventions. However, we still need to address several challenges to improve the practice of molecular network-guided targeting interventions to finally end the HIV epidemic. The data remain limited or difficult to obtain, and more automatic real-time tools are required. In addition, molecular and social networks must be combined, and technical parameters and ethnic issues warrant further studies.