The Association of HIV-Specific Risk Factors with Cardiovascular Events in Addition to Traditional Risk Factors in People Living with HIV

Traditional cardiovascular risk scores underestimate the incidence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in people living with HIV (PLH). This study compared the effect of HIV-specific cardiovascular risk factors (CRF) with traditional CRF at baseline for their association with incident CVD in PLH. The ongoing, prospective HIV HEART Aging (HIVH) study assesses CVD in PLH in the German Ruhr Area since 2004. PLH from the HIVH study with at least 5 years of follow-up were examined with the help of Cox proportional hazards models using inverse probability-of-censoring weights. The models were adjusted for age and sex. The obtained hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence limits (CL) assessed the strength of the associations between CRF and CVD. One thousand two hundred forty-three individuals (male 1,040, female 203; mean age of 43 ± 10 years) with 116 incident CVD events were analyzed. After adjusting for the traditional CRF, the HIV-specific CRF "a history of AIDS" and "higher age at diagnosis of HIV infection" (per 10 years) were associated with an increased CVD risk (HR 1.55, 95% CL: 1.05-2.28 and HR 1.55, 95% CL: 1.09-1.22, respectively). Higher CD4/CD8 ratio (per standard deviation), longer cumulative duration of antiretroviral therapies, and longer duration of HIV infection (per 10 years) showed indications for a decreased CVD risk (HR 0.75, 95% CL: 0.58-0.97, HR 0.71, 95% CL: 0.41-1.23, and HR 0.63, 95% CL: 0.44-0.90, respectively). Out of the traditional CRF, current smoking showed the strongest impact on CVD risk (HR 3.12, 95% CL: 2.06-4.74). In conclusion, HIV-specific factors, such as history of AIDS and CD4/CD8 ratio, were independently associated with an increased cardiovascular risk. Traditional CRF maintained a major effect on CVD. Clinical Trials Number (NCT04330287).

The protective effect of tumor necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors in COVID-19 in patients with inflammatory rheumatic diseases compared to the general population-A comparison of two German registries

Objectives

To investigate, whether inflammatory rheumatic diseases (IRD) inpatients are at higher risk to develop a severe course of SARS-CoV-2 infections compared to the general population, data from the German COVID-19 registry for IRD patients and data from the Lean European Survey on SARS-CoV-2 (LEOSS) infected patients covering inpatients from the general population with SARS-CoV-2 infections were compared.

Methods

4310 (LEOSS registry) and 1139 cases (IRD registry) were collected in general. Data were matched for age and gender. From both registries, 732 matched inpatients (LEOSS registry: n = 366 and IRD registry: n = 366) were included for analyses in total.

Results

Regarding the COVID-19 associated lethality, no significant difference between both registries was observed. Age > 65°years, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, rheumatoid arthritis, spondyloarthritis and the use of rituximab were associated with more severe courses of COVID-19. Female gender and the use of tumor necrosis factor-alpha inhibitors (TNF-I) were associated with a better outcome of COVID-19.

Conclusion

Inflammatory rheumatic diseases (IRD) patients have the same risk factors for severe COVID-19 regarding comorbidities compared to the general population without any immune-mediated disease or immunomodulation. The use of rituximab was associated with an increased risk for severe COVID-19. On the other hand, the use of TNF-I was associated with less severe COVID-19 compared to the general population, which might indicate a protective effect of TNF-I against severe COVID-19 disease.

Covid-19 triage in the emergency department 2.0: how analytics and AI transform a human-made algorithm for the prediction of clinical pathways

The Covid-19 pandemic has pushed many hospitals to their capacity limits. Therefore, a triage of patients has been discussed controversially primarily through an ethical perspective. The term triage contains many aspects such as urgency of treatment, severity of the disease and pre-existing conditions, access to critical care, or the classification of patients regarding subsequent clinical pathways starting from the emergency department. The determination of the pathways is important not only for patient care, but also for capacity planning in hospitals. We examine the performance of a human-made triage algorithm for clinical pathways which is considered a guideline for emergency departments in Germany based on a large multicenter dataset with over 4,000 European Covid-19 patients from the LEOSS registry. We find an accuracy of 28 percent and approximately 15 percent sensitivity for the ward class. The results serve as a benchmark for our extensions including an additional category of palliative care as a new label, analytics, AI, XAI, and interactive techniques. We find significant potential of analytics and AI in Covid-19 triage regarding accuracy, sensitivity, and other performance metrics whilst our interactive human-AI algorithm shows superior performance with approximately 73 percent accuracy and up to 76 percent sensitivity. The results are independent of the data preparation process regarding the imputation of missing values or grouping of comorbidities. In addition, we find that the consideration of an additional label palliative care does not improve the results.

Age and Comorbidity Burden of Patients Critically Ill with COVID-19 Affect Both Access to and Outcome of Ventilation Therapy in Intensive Care Units

During the COVID-19 pandemic, large numbers of elderly, multimorbid people required treatment in intensive care units. This study investigated how the inherent patient factors age and comorbidity burden affected the treatment strategy and the outcome achieved. Retrospective analysis of data from intensive care patients enrolled in the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV2-Infected Patients (LEOSS) cohort found that a patient's age and comorbidity burden in fact influenced their mortality rate and the use of ventilation therapy. Evidence showed that advanced age and multimorbidity were associated with the restrictive use of invasive ventilation therapies, particularly ECMO. Geriatric patients with a high comorbidity burden were clustered in the sub-cohort of non-ventilated ICU patients characterized by a high mortality rate. The risk of death generally increased with older age and accumulating comorbidity burden. Here, the more aggressive an applied procedure, the younger the age in which a majority of patients died. Clearly, geriatric, multimorbid COVID-19 patients benefit less from invasive ventilation therapies. This implies the need for a holistic approach to therapy decisions, taking into account the patient's wishes.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in chronic kidney disease patients with pre-existing dialysis: description across different pandemic intervals and effect on disease course (mortality)

PURPOSE

Patients suffering from chronic kidney disease (CKD) are in general at high risk for severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) but dialysis-dependency (CKD5D) is poorly understood. We aimed to describe CKD5D patients in the different intervals of the pandemic and to evaluate pre-existing dialysis dependency as a potential risk factor for mortality.

METHODS

In this multicentre cohort study, data from German study sites of the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-infected patients (LEOSS) were used. We multiply imputed missing data, performed subsequent analyses in each of the imputed data sets and pooled the results. Cases (CKD5D) and controls (CKD not requiring dialysis) were matched 1:1 by propensity-scoring. Effects on fatal outcome were calculated by multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

The cohort consisted of 207 patients suffering from CKD5D and 964 potential controls. Multivariable regression of the whole cohort identified age (> 85 years adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 7.34, 95% CI 2.45-21.99), chronic heart failure (aOR 1.67, 95% CI 1.25-2.23), coronary artery disease (aOR 1.41, 95% CI 1.05-1.89) and active oncological disease (aOR 1.73, 95% CI 1.07-2.80) as risk factors for fatal outcome. Dialysis-dependency was not associated with a fatal outcome-neither in this analysis (aOR 1.08, 95% CI 0.75-1.54) nor in the conditional multivariable regression after matching (aOR 1.34, 95% CI 0.70-2.59).

CONCLUSIONS

In the present multicentre German cohort, dialysis dependency is not linked to fatal outcome in SARS-CoV-2-infected CKD patients. However, the mortality rate of 26% demonstrates that CKD patients are an extreme vulnerable population, irrespective of pre-existing dialysis-dependency.

COVIDAL: A machine learning classifier for digital COVID-19 diagnosis in German hospitals

For the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, it is particularly important to map the course of infection, in terms of patients who have currently tested SARS-CoV-2 positive, as accurately as possible. In hospitals, this is even more important because resources have become scarce. Although polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and point of care (POC) antigen testing capacities have been massively expanded, they are often very time-consuming and cost-intensive and, in some cases, lack appropriate performance. To meet these challenges, we propose the COVIDAL classifier for AI-based diagnosis of symptomatic COVID-19 subjects in hospitals based on laboratory parameters. We evaluate the algorithm's performance by unique multicenter data with approx. 4,000 patients and an extraordinary high ratio of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients. We analyze the influence of data preparation, flexibility in optimization targets as well as the selection of the test set on the COVIDAL outcome. The algorithm is compared with standard AI, PCR, POC antigen testing and manual classifications of seven physicians by a decision theoretic scoring model including performance metrics, turnaround times and cost. Thereby, we define health care settings in which a certain classifier for COVID-19 diagnosis is to be applied. We find sensitivities, specificities and accuracies of the COVIDAL algorithm of up to 90 percent. Our scoring model suggests using PCR testing for a focus on performance metrics. For turnaround times, POC antigen testing should be used. If balancing performance, turnaround times and cost is of interest, as, for example, in the emergency department, COVIDAL is superior based on the scoring model.

1886. External Validation of the 4C Mortality Score and the qSOFA for Different Variants of Concerns of SARS-CoV-2 Using Data of the NAPKON Cross-Sectoral Cohort Platform (SUEP)

Background

Numerous predictive clinical scores with varying discriminatory performance have been developed in the context of the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. To support clinical application, we test the transferability of the frequently applied 4C mortality score (4C score) to the German prospective Cross-Sectoral Platform (SUEP) of the National Pandemic Cohort Network (NAPKON) compared to the non COVID-19 specific quick sequential organ failure assessment score (qSOFA). Our project aims to externally validate these two scores, stratified for the most prevalent variants of concerns (VOCs) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Germany.

Methods

A total of 685 adults with polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-detected SARS-CoV-2 infection were included from NAPKON-SUEP. Patients were recruited from 11/2020 to 03/2022 at 34 university and non-university hospitals across Germany. Missing values were complemented using multiple imputation. Predictive performance for in-hospital mortality at day of baseline visit was determined by area under the curve (AUC) with 95%-confidence interval (CI) stratified by VOCs of SARS-CoV-2 (alpha, delta, omicron) (Figure 1). Figure 1:

Corrigendum to "Machine Learning Based Prediction of COVID-19 Mortality Suggests Repositioning of Anticancer Drug for Treating Severe Cases"[Artificial Intelligence in Life Sciences] 1(2021), 100020

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1016/j.ailsci.2021.100020.].

Convalescent plasma treatment for SARS-CoV-2 infected high-risk patients: a matched pair analysis to the LEOSS cohort

Establishing the optimal treatment for COVID-19 patients remains challenging. Specifically, immunocompromised and pre-diseased patients are at high risk for severe disease course and face limited therapeutic options. Convalescent plasma (CP) has been considered as therapeutic approach, but reliable data are lacking, especially for high-risk patients. We performed a retrospective analysis of 55 hospitalized COVID-19 patients from University Hospital Duesseldorf (UKD) at high risk for disease progression, in a substantial proportion due to immunosuppression from cancer, solid organ transplantation, autoimmune disease, dialysis. A matched-pairs analysis (1:4) was performed with 220 patients from the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-infected Patients (LEOSS) who were treated or not treated with CP. Both cohorts had high mortality (UKD 41.8%, LEOSS 34.1%). A matched-pairs analysis showed no significant effect on mortality. CP administration before the formation of pulmonary infiltrates showed the lowest mortality in both cohorts (10%), whereas mortality in the complicated phase was 27.8%. CP administration during the critical phase revealed the highest mortality: UKD 60.9%, LEOSS 48.3%. In our cohort of COVID-19 patients with severe comorbidities CP did not significantly reduce mortality in a retrospective matched-pairs analysis. However, our data supports the concept that a reduction in mortality is achievable by early CP administration.

COVID-19 Severity and Thrombo-Inflammatory Response Linked to Ethnicity

Although there is strong evidence that SARS-CoV-2 infection is associated with adverse outcomes in certain ethnic groups, the association of disease severity and risk factors such as comorbidities and biomarkers with racial disparities remains undefined. This retrospective study between March 2020 and February 2021 explores COVID-19 risk factors as predictors for patients’ disease progression through country comparison. Disease severity predictors in Germany and Japan were cardiovascular-associated comorbidities, dementia, and age. We adjusted age, sex, body mass index, and history of cardiovascular disease comorbidity in the country cohorts using a propensity score matching (PSM) technique to reduce the influence of differences in sample size and the surprisingly young, lean Japanese cohort. Analysis of the 170 PSM pairs confirmed that 65.29% of German and 85.29% of Japanese patients were in the uncomplicated phase. More German than Japanese patients were admitted in the complicated and critical phase. Ethnic differences were identified in patients without cardiovascular comorbidities. Japanese patients in the uncomplicated phase presented a suppressed inflammatory response and coagulopathy with hypocoagulation. In contrast, German patients exhibited a hyperactive inflammatory response and coagulopathy with hypercoagulation. These differences were less pronounced in patients in the complicated phase or with cardiovascular diseases. Coagulation/fibrinolysis-associated biomarkers rather than inflammatory-related biomarkers predicted disease severity in patients with cardiovascular comorbidities: platelet counts were associated with severe illness in German patients. In contrast, high D-dimer and fibrinogen levels predicted disease severity in Japanese patients. Our comparative study indicates that ethnicity influences COVID-19-associated biomarker expression linked to the inflammatory and coagulation (thrombo-inflammatory) response. Future studies will be necessary to determine whether these differences contributed to the less severe disease progression observed in Japanese COVID-19 patients compared with those in Germany.

Invasiveness of Ventilation Therapy Is Associated to Prevalence of Secondary Bacterial and Fungal Infections in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients

Superinfections are a fundamental critical care problem, and their significance in severe COVID-19 cases needs to be determined. This study analyzed data from the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-Infected Patients (LEOSS) cohort focusing on intensive care patients. A retrospective analysis of patient data from 840 cases of COVID-19 with critical courses demonstrated that co-infections were frequently present and were primarily of nosocomial origin. Furthermore, our analysis showed that invasive therapy procedures accompanied an increased risk for healthcare-associated infections. Non-ventilated ICU patients were rarely affected by secondary infections. The risk of infection, however, increased even when non-invasive ventilation was used. A further, significant increase in infection rates was seen with the use of invasive ventilation and even more so with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) therapy. The marked differences among ICU techniques used for the treatment of COVID-19-induced respiratory failure in terms of secondary infection risk profile should be taken into account for the optimal management of critically ill COVID-19 patients, as well as for adequate antimicrobial therapy.

Hospitalized patients dying with SARS-CoV-2 infection—An analysis of patient characteristics and management in ICU and general ward of the LEOSS registry

Background

COVID-19 is a severe disease with a high need for intensive care treatment and a high mortality rate in hospitalized patients. The objective of this study was to describe and compare the clinical characteristics and the management of patients dying with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the acute medical and intensive care setting.

Methods

Descriptive analysis of dying patients enrolled in the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 Infected Patients (LEOSS), a non-interventional cohort study, between March 18 and November 18, 2020. Symptoms, comorbidities and management of patients, including palliative care involvement, were compared between general ward and intensive care unit (ICU) by univariate analysis.

Results

580/4310 (13%) SARS-CoV-2 infected patients died. Among 580 patients 67% were treated on ICU and 33% on a general ward. The spectrum of comorbidities and symptoms was broad with more comorbidities (≥ four comorbidities: 52% versus 25%) and a higher age distribution (>65 years: 98% versus 70%) in patients on the general ward. 69% of patients were in an at least complicated phase at diagnosis of the SARS-CoV-2 infection with a higher proportion of patients in a critical phase or dying the day of diagnosis treated on ICU (36% versus 11%). While most patients admitted to ICU came from home (71%), patients treated on the general ward came likewise from home and nursing home (44% respectively) and were more frequently on palliative care before admission (29% versus 7%). A palliative care team was involved in dying patients in 15%. Personal contacts were limited but more often documented in patients treated on ICU (68% versus 47%).

Conclusion

Patients dying with SARS-CoV-2 infection suffer from high symptom burden and often deteriorate early with a demand for ICU treatment. Therefor a demand for palliative care expertise with early involvement seems to exist.

Obesity and Impaired Metabolic Health Increase Risk of COVID-19-Related Mortality in Young and Middle-Aged Adults to the Level Observed in Older People: The LEOSS Registry

Advanced age, followed by male sex, by far poses the greatest risk for severe COVID-19. An unresolved question is the extent to which modifiable comorbidities increase the risk of COVID-19-related mortality among younger patients, in whom COVID-19-related hospitalization strongly increased in 2021. A total of 3,163 patients with SARS-COV-2 diagnosis in the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-Infected Patients (LEOSS) cohort were studied. LEOSS is a European non-interventional multi-center cohort study established in March 2020 to investigate the epidemiology and clinical course of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Data from hospitalized patients and those who received ambulatory care, with a positive SARS-CoV-2 test, were included in the study. An additive effect of obesity, diabetes and hypertension on the risk of mortality was observed, which was particularly strong in young and middle-aged patients. Compared to young and middle-aged (18-55 years) patients without obesity, diabetes and hypertension (non-obese and metabolically healthy; n = 593), young and middle-aged adult patients with all three risk parameters (obese and metabolically unhealthy; n = 31) had a similar adjusted increased risk of mortality [OR 7.42 (95% CI 1.55-27.3)] as older (56-75 years) non-obese and metabolically healthy patients [n = 339; OR 8.21 (95% CI 4.10-18.3)]. Furthermore, increased CRP levels explained part of the elevated risk of COVID-19-related mortality with age, specifically in the absence of obesity and impaired metabolic health. In conclusion, the modifiable risk factors obesity, diabetes and hypertension increase the risk of COVID-19-related mortality in young and middle-aged patients to the level of risk observed in advanced age.

Clinical presentation, disease course, and outcome of COVID-19 in hospitalized patients with and without pre-existing cardiac disease: a cohort study across 18 countries

AIMS

Patients with cardiac disease are considered high risk for poor outcomes following hospitalization with COVID-19. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate heterogeneity in associations between various heart disease subtypes and in-hospital mortality.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We used data from the CAPACITY-COVID registry and LEOSS study. Multivariable Poisson regression models were fitted to assess the association between different types of pre-existing heart disease and in-hospital mortality. A total of 16 511 patients with COVID-19 were included (21.1% aged 66-75 years; 40.2% female) and 31.5% had a history of heart disease. Patients with heart disease were older, predominantly male, and often had other comorbid conditions when compared with those without. Mortality was higher in patients with cardiac disease (29.7%; n = 1545 vs. 15.9%; n = 1797). However, following multivariable adjustment, this difference was not significant [adjusted risk ratio (aRR) 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.15; P = 0.12 (corrected for multiple testing)]. Associations with in-hospital mortality by heart disease subtypes differed considerably, with the strongest association for heart failure (aRR 1.19, 95% CI 1.10-1.30; P < 0.018) particularly for severe (New York Heart Association class III/IV) heart failure (aRR 1.41, 95% CI 1.20-1.64; P < 0.018). None of the other heart disease subtypes, including ischaemic heart disease, remained significant after multivariable adjustment. Serious cardiac complications were diagnosed in <1% of patients.

CONCLUSION

Considerable heterogeneity exists in the strength of association between heart disease subtypes and in-hospital mortality. Of all patients with heart disease, those with heart failure are at greatest risk of death when hospitalized with COVID-19. Serious cardiac complications are rare during hospitalization.

A highly virulent variant of HIV-1 circulating in the Netherlands

We discovered a highly virulent variant of subtype-B HIV-1 in the Netherlands. One hundred nine individuals with this variant had a 0.54 to 0.74 log₁₀ increase (i.e., a ~3.5-fold to 5.5-fold increase) in viral load compared with, and exhibited CD4 cell decline twice as fast as, 6604 individuals with other subtype-B strains. Without treatment, advanced HIV-CD4 cell counts below 350 cells per cubic millimeter, with long-term clinical consequences-is expected to be reached, on average, 9 months after diagnosis for individuals in their thirties with this variant. Age, sex, suspected mode of transmission, and place of birth for the aforementioned 109 individuals were typical for HIV-positive people in the Netherlands, which suggests that the increased virulence is attributable to the viral strain. Genetic sequence analysis suggests that this variant arose in the 1990s from de novo mutation, not recombination, with increased transmissibility and an unfamiliar molecular mechanism of virulence.

Machine Learning Based Prediction of COVID-19 Mortality Suggests Repositioning of Anticancer Drug for Treating Severe Cases

Despite available vaccinations COVID-19 case numbers around the world are still growing, and effective medications against severe cases are lacking. In this work, we developed a machine learning model which predicts mortality for COVID-19 patients using data from the multi-center 'Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-infected patients' (LEOSS) observational study (>100 active sites in Europe, primarily in Germany), resulting into an AUC of almost 80%. We showed that molecular mechanisms related to dementia, one of the relevant predictors in our model, intersect with those associated to COVID-19. Most notably, among these molecules was tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2), a protein that has been patented as drug target in Alzheimer's Disease but also genetically associated with severe COVID-19 outcomes. We experimentally verified that anti-cancer drugs Sorafenib and Regorafenib showed a clear anti-cytopathic effect in Caco2 and VERO-E6 cells and can thus be regarded as potential treatments against COVID-19. Altogether, our work demonstrates that interpretation of machine learning based risk models can point towards drug targets and new treatment options, which are strongly needed for COVID-19.

Gastrointestinal bleeding and endoscopic findings in critically and non-critically ill patients with corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19): Results from Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 (LEOSS) and COKA registries

BACKGROUND

Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients are at increased risk for thromboembolic events. It is unclear whether the risk for gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is also increased.

METHODS

We considered 4128 COVID-19 patients enrolled in the Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2 (LEOSS) registry. The association between occurrence of GI bleeding and comorbidities as well as medication were examined. In addition, 1216 patients from COKA registry were analyzed focusing on endoscopy diagnostic findings.

RESULTS

A cumulative number of 97 patients (1.8%) with GI bleeding were identified in the LEOSS registry and COKA registry. Of 4128 patients from the LEOSS registry, 66 patients (1.6%) had a GI bleeding. The rate of GI bleeding in patients with intensive care unit (ICU) admission was 4.5%. The use of therapeutic dose of anticoagulants showed a significant association with the increased incidence of bleeding in the critical phase of disease. The Charlson comorbidity index and the COVID-19 severity index were significantly higher in the group of patients with GI bleeding than in the group of patients without GI bleeding (5.83 (SD = 2.93) vs. 3.66 (SD = 3.06), p < 0.01 and 3.26 (SD = 1.69) vs. 2.33 (SD = 1.53), p < 0.01, respectively). In the COKA registry 31 patients (2.5%) developed a GI bleeding. Of these, the source of bleeding was identified in upper GI tract in 21 patients (67.7%) with ulcer as the most frequent bleeding source (25.8%, n = 8) followed by gastroesophageal reflux (16.1%, n = 5). In three patients (9.7%) GI bleeding source was located in lower GI tract caused mainly by diverticular bleeding (6.5%, n = 2). In seven patients (22.6%) the bleeding localization remained unknown.

CONCLUSION

Consistent with previous research, comorbidities and disease severity correlate with the incidence of GI bleeding. Also, therapeutic anticoagulation seems to be associated with a higher risk of GI bleeding. Overall, the risk of GI bleeding seems not to be increased in COVID-19 patients.

All-cause mortality and disease progression in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients with or without antibiotic therapy: an analysis of the LEOSS cohort

Purpose

Reported antibiotic use in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is far higher than the actual rate of reported bacterial co- and superinfection. A better understanding of antibiotic therapy in COVID-19 is necessary.

Methods

6457 SARS-CoV-2-infected cases, documented from March 18, 2020, until February 16, 2021, in the LEOSS cohort were analyzed. As primary endpoint, the correlation between any antibiotic treatment and all-cause mortality/progression to the next more advanced phase of disease was calculated for adult patients in the complicated phase of disease and procalcitonin (PCT) ≤ 0.5 ng/ml. The analysis took the confounders gender, age, and comorbidities into account.

Results

Three thousand, six hundred twenty-seven cases matched all inclusion criteria for analyses. For the primary endpoint, antibiotic treatment was not correlated with lower all-cause mortality or progression to the next more advanced (critical) phase (n = 996) (both p > 0.05). For the secondary endpoints, patients in the uncomplicated phase (n = 1195), regardless of PCT level, had no lower all-cause mortality and did not progress less to the next more advanced (complicated) phase when treated with antibiotics (p > 0.05). Patients in the complicated phase with PCT > 0.5 ng/ml and antibiotic treatment (n = 286) had a significantly increased all-cause mortality (p = 0.029) but no significantly different probability of progression to the critical phase (p > 0.05).

Conclusion

In this cohort, antibiotics in SARS-CoV-2-infected patients were not associated with positive effects on all-cause mortality or disease progression. Additional studies are needed. Advice of local antibiotic stewardship- (ABS-) teams and local educational campaigns should be sought to improve rational antibiotic use in COVID-19 patients.

Neurological symptoms and complications in predominantly hospitalized COVID-19 patients: Results of the European multinational Lean European Open Survey on SARS-Infected Patients (LEOSS)

Background and purpose

During acute coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) infection, neurological signs, symptoms and complications occur. We aimed to assess their clinical relevance by evaluating real‐world data from a multinational registry.

Methods

We analyzed COVID‐19 patients from 127 centers, diagnosed between January 2020 and February 2021, and registered in the European multinational LEOSS (Lean European Open Survey on SARS‐Infected Patients) registry. The effects of prior neurological diseases and the effect of neurological symptoms on outcome were studied using multivariate logistic regression.

Results

A total of 6537 COVID‐19 patients (97.7% PCR‐confirmed) were analyzed, of whom 92.1% were hospitalized and 14.7% died. Commonly, excessive tiredness (28.0%), headache (18.5%), nausea/emesis (16.6%), muscular weakness (17.0%), impaired sense of smell (9.0%) and taste (12.8%), and delirium (6.7%) were reported. In patients with a complicated or critical disease course (53%) the most frequent neurological complications were ischemic stroke (1.0%) and intracerebral bleeding (ICB; 2.2%). ICB peaked in the critical disease phase (5%) and was associated with the administration of anticoagulation and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). Excessive tiredness (odds ratio [OR] 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.20–1.68) and prior neurodegenerative diseases (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.07–1.63) were associated with an increased risk of an unfavorable outcome. Prior cerebrovascular and neuroimmunological diseases were not associated with an unfavorable short‐term outcome of COVID‐19.

Conclusion

Our data on mostly hospitalized COVID‐19 patients show that excessive tiredness or prior neurodegenerative disease at first presentation increase the risk of an unfavorable short‐term outcome. ICB in critical COVID‐19 was associated with therapeutic interventions, such as anticoagulation and ECMO, and thus may be an indirect complication of a life‐threatening systemic viral infection.

Development and validation of a simplified risk score for the prediction of critical COVID-19 illness in newly diagnosed patients

Scores to identify patients at high risk of progression of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), may become instrumental for clinical decision-making and patient management. We used patient data from the multicentre Lean European Open Survey on SARS-CoV-2-Infected Patients (LEOSS) and applied variable selection to develop a simplified scoring system to identify patients at increased risk of critical illness or death. A total of 1946 patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 were included in the initial analysis and assigned to derivation and validation cohorts (n = 1297 and n = 649, respectively). Stability selection from over 100 baseline predictors for the combined endpoint of progression to the critical phase or COVID-19-related death enabled the development of a simplified score consisting of five predictors: C-reactive protein (CRP), age, clinical disease phase (uncomplicated vs. complicated), serum urea, and D-dimer (abbreviated as CAPS-D score). This score yielded an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77-0.85) in the validation cohort for predicting the combined endpoint within 7 days of diagnosis and 0.81 (95% CI: 0.77-0.85) during full follow-up. We used an additional prospective cohort of 682 patients, diagnosed largely after the "first wave" of the pandemic to validate the predictive accuracy of the score and observed similar results (AUC for the event within 7 days: 0.83 [95% CI: 0.78-0.87]; for full follow-up: 0.82 [95% CI: 0.78-0.86]). An easily applicable score to calculate the risk of COVID-19 progression to critical illness or death was thus established and validated.

Prediction of future cardiovascular events by Framingham, SCORE and asCVD risk scores is less accurate in HIV-positive individuals from the HIV-HEART Study compared with the general population

OBJECTIVES

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) occur more often in people living with HIV (PLWH) than in the general population. It has been reported that CVD risk scores developed for the general population underestimate the CVD risk in PLWH. Performances of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) and the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (asCVD) risk score in PLWH were compared with the general population to quantify score-specific differences in risk prediction.

METHODS

HIV-positive outpatients from the HIV-HEART (HIVH) study (n = 567) were compared with participants from the population-based Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) study (n ~ 4440) both recruited from the German Ruhr area. During a follow-up time of around 5 years, the associations between the FRS and incident CVD and peripheral artery disease (CVD_pAD), SCORE and coronary heart disease (CHD), and asCVD and incident CVD were examined using logistic regression. Score performances were assessed by comparing the areas under the curve (AUCs).

RESULTS

The mean ages were 52.9 ± 6.7 and 59.1 ± 7.7 years in the HIVH and HNR studies, respectively. There were fewer incident CVD events in the HNR study than in the HIVH study (CVD_pAD: 3.9% vs. 12.1%; CHD: 2.1% vs. 7.8%; CVD: 3.5% vs. 9.9%). Age- and sex-adjusted CVD risk was greater with increasing FRS, SCORE and asCVD in both cohorts, but the scores performed more accurately in the HNR than in HIVH study (AUCs FRS: 0.71 vs. 0.65; SCORE: 0.70 vs. 0.62; asCVD: 0.74 vs. 0.62).

CONCLUSIONS

Associations between risk scores and future CVD were observed in both cohorts, but the score performances were less reliable in PLWH than in the general population.

Analysis of contemporary HIV/AIDS health care costs in Germany: Driving factors and distribution across antiretroviral therapy lines

To analyze contemporary costs of HIV health care and the cost distribution across lines of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). To identify variations in expenditures with patient characteristics and to identify main cost determinants. To compute cost ratios between patients with varying characteristics.Empirical data on costs are collected in Germany within a 2-year prospective observational noninterventional multicenter study. The database contains information for 1154 HIV-infected patients from 8 medical centers.Means and standard deviations of the total costs are estimated for each cost fraction and across cART lines and regimens. The costs are regressed against various patient characteristics using a generalized linear model. Relative costs are calculated using the resultant coefficients.The average annual total costs (SD) per patient are &OV0556;22,231.03 (8786.13) with a maximum of &OV0556;83,970. cART medication is the major cost fraction (83.8%) with a mean of &OV0556;18,688.62 (5289.48). The major cost-driving factors are cART regimen, CD4-T cell count, cART drug resistance, and concomitant diseases. Viral load, pathology tests, and demographics have no significant impact. Standard non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimens induce 28% lower total costs compared with standard PI/r regimens. Resistance to 3 or more antiretroviral classes induces a significant increase in costs.HIV treatment in Germany continues to be expensive. Majority of costs are attributable to cART. Main cost determinants are CD4-T cells count, comorbidity, genotypic antiviral resistance, and therapy regimen. Combinations of characteristics associated with higher expenditures enhance the increasing effect on the costs and induce high cost cases.

[Cost of Illness of HIV Patients under Anteretroviral Therapy in Germany - Results of the 48-Week Interim Analysis of the Prospective Multicentre Observational Study 'CORSAR']

BACKGROUND

With the introduction of highly active combined antiretroviral therapy (c-ART) mortality and morbidity of HIV patients declined substantially. Earlier studies reported that c-ART was able to save health-care costs due to a reduction of other direct medical costs, particularly for inpatient treatments and concomitant medication. To date, analyses of costs and health-related quality of life (HRQOL) of patients under c-ART are lacking in Germany. Hence, this study aims to estimate the current cost of illness and HRQOL of HIV-patients under c-ART in different treatment lines.

METHODS

A multicenter, prospective observational study was carried out in 12 specialised German centres for infectious diseases: 8 private practices/outpatient centres and 4 specialised hospitals offering both inpatient and outpatient services. Demographic, clinical and medication data were derived from patient records. Resource utilisation, information on productivity, out of pocket costs and HRQOL (EQ-5D) were collected every 12 weeks via a patient questionnaire. All costs were calculated based on price information from publicly accessible databases.

RESULTS

N=1,154 patients were included in the analysis. Mean direct disease-related costs of -patients under c-ART amounted to 22,563 Euro/year. Patients beyond the 3(rd) line of treatment -incurred considerably higher costs 24,654 Euro/year. In the 1(st) treatment line, c-ART accounted for 83.2% of the total direct costs, in the 2(nd)/3(rd) line for 80.8% and in >3(rd) line for 83.4%, respectively. Indirect costs due to impaired productivity were higher in the 2(nd)/3(rd) treatment line (2,843 Euro) compared to the 1(st) (1,604 Euro) and >3(rd) (1,752 Euro) treatment lines, respectively. The average HRQOL (EQ-5D) varied between 0.77 (self-assessment via visual analogue scale) and 0.91 (utility score based on the German time trade-off tariff).

CONCLUSIONS

Over the last decade, cost of illness of HIV patients under c-ART decreased slightly with average costs per year still being substantial. Main cost driver of overall costs is c-ART. There have been, however, noticeable shifts between different cost domains.

Ambulatory care for HIV-infected patients: differences in outcomes between hospital-based units and private practices: analysis of the RESINA cohort

Background

The efficacy of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the treatment of HIV infection is influenced by factors such as potency of applied drugs, adherence of the patient, and resistance-associated mutations. Up to now, there is insufficient data on the impact of the therapeutic setting.

Methods

Since 2001, the prospective multicenter RESINA study has examined the epidemiology of transmitted HIV drug resistance in Nordrhein-Westfalen, the largest federal state of Germany by population. Characteristics of patients treated in hospital-based outpatient units were compared to those of patients treated in medical practices. Longitudinal data of all participants are being followed in a cohort study.

Results

Overall, 1,591 patients were enrolled between 2001 and 2009 with follow-up until the end of 2010. Of these, 1,099 cases were treated in hospital-based units and 492 in private practices. Significant differences were found with respect to baseline characteristics. A higher rate of patients with advanced disease and non-European nationality were cared for in hospital units. Patients in medical practices were predominantly Caucasian men who have sex with men (MSM) harboring HIV-1 subtype B, with lower CDC stage and higher CD4 cell count. Median viral load was 68,828 c/mL in hospital-based units and 100,000 c/mL in private practices (P = 0.041). Only median age and rate of transmitted drug resistance were not significantly different. After 48 weeks, 81.9% of patients in hospital units and 85.9% in private practices had a viral load below the limit of detection (P = 0.12). A similar result was seen after 96 weeks (P = 0.54). Although the baseline CD4 cell count was different (189.5/μL in hospital units and 246.5/μL in private practices, P <0.001), a consistent and almost identical increase was determined in both groups.

Conclusions

The RESINA study covers a large HIV-infected patient cohort cared for in specialized facilities in Germany. Despite significant differences of patients’ baseline characteristics in hospital-based units compared to medical practices, we could not find significant differences in treatment outcome up to 2 years after the initiation of HAART.

Epidemiology of transmitted drug resistance in chronically HIV-infected patients in Germany: the RESINA study 2001-2009

OBJECTIVES

Transmitted HIV drug resistance may impair treatment efficacy of combination antiretroviral therapy (ART). This study describes the epidemiology of transmitted resistance in chronically infected patients.

METHODS

In a prospective multicenter trial in Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany, transmitted drug resistance was determined by genotypic resistance testing in patients on initiation of first-line ART.

RESULTS

From 2001 to 2009, 2,078 patients were enrolled in the study. 79.9% were male, 81.2% were Caucasians, and a homosexual transmission mode was found in 51.3%. Of these patients, 41.5% were at the stage of AIDS, median CD4 cell count was 230/μl, and median viral load was 64.466 copies/ml. Transmitted drug resistance mutations were seen in 9.2% (95% CI, 7.9-10.4). Resistance in the nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor class was found in 5.8% (4.8-6.8), in the nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor class in 2.8% (2.1-3.6), and in the protease inhibitor class in 2.7% (2.0-3.4). After a continuous increase to a level above 10% in the years 2006 and 2007, a decline of drug resistance prevalence followed in 2008 and 2009.

CONCLUSIONS

Transmitted HIV drug resistance was found in around 10% of chronically infected patients in Germany who started their ART. We showed a moderate decline of the prevalence of mutant virus strains in recent years. Further surveillance of this phenomenon is mandatory.

Prevalence of cardiac diastolic dysfunction in HIV-infected patients: results of the HIV-HEART study

PURPOSE

Antiretroviral therapy has improved the prognosis for many individuals with HIV infection. Consequently, HIV infection has become a chronic and manageable disease with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Isolated diastolic dysfunction (DD) may be the first indication of underlying cardiac disease and an early marker of coronary artery disease. Our aim was to assess the prevalence of DD in HIV-infected patients.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional cohort study, 698 unselected patients were included. All subjects underwent two-dimensional transthoracic echocardiography with tissue Doppler imaging.

RESULTS

The prevalence of DD among the HIV-infected patients was 48%. Patients with DD were characterized by older age, higher body mass index, higher total cholesterol, arterial hypertension, and diabetes mellitus. Diabetes mellitus and arterial hypertension were associated with approximately four times the risk for DD (odds ratio [OR] 3.9, 95% CI 1.65-9.17; OR 3.8, 95% CI 2.49-5.71, respectively). Persons with hyperlipidemia were approximately one and a half times more likely to have DD than those without hyperlipidemia (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.12-2.07).

CONCLUSIONS

In our study, an impressive high prevalence of DD in HIV-infected patients was demonstrated. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors substantially contributed to the development of DD in the HIV-infected cohort.

Lipodystrophy - a sign for metabolic syndrome in patients of the HIV-HEART study

BACKGROUND

After the introduction of antiretroviral therapy, the life expectancy of HIV patients has increased to more than 30 years after initial diagnosis. Cardiovascular disease now is an important cause of death in HIV-infected patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In the multicenter, prospective HIV-HEART study, 222 (38 %) patients suffered from lipodystrophy. Women were more often affected than men (41.5 % vs. 25.3 %). Patients with lipodystrophy were on average 5 years older and had been infected longer (10.4 vs. 6.6 years) then patients without lipodystrophy.

RESULTS

Lipodystrophy in HIV patients was a clinical sign of cardiovascular risk factors like hyperlipidemia (total cholesterol 19 mg/dl higher, HDL 2.8 mg/dl lower, triglycerides 53 mg/dl higher) and type 2 diabetes (11.3 % vs. 2.8 %). Patients with lipodystrophy were more likely to be co-infected with hepatitis B (34.7 % vs. 28.8 %, p = 0.122) or C (13.1 % vs. 9.3 %, p = 0.16) than patients without lipodystrophy. The quality of life was reduced in patients with lipodystrophy. In 6 of 8 scales of the SF-36 questionnaire, patients with lipodystrophy had lower scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Lipodystrophy syndrome is an early warning system for a number of illnesses which reduce life expectancy. Dermatologists must help insure that HIV-infected patients receive treatment for these disorders.

Epidemiological composition, clinical and treatment characteristics of the patient cohort of the German Competence Network for HIV/AIDS

Objective

As its central basis for research, the Competence Network for HIV/AIDS (KompNet) established a nationwide cohort study on HIV-positive patients being in medical care in Germany. In this paper, we describe the epidemiological composition, and clinical as well as treatment characteristics of the KompNet cohort over time.

Methods

The KompNet cohort is an open, retrospective and prospective, multi-center, disease-specific and nationwide cohort study that started gathering data in June 2004. Semiannually, follow up visits of the patients are documented, covering a wide range of clinical and sociodemographic data. At enrolment and three years afterwards, an EDTA-sample is taken; a serum-sample is taken at every follow up.

Results

As of 20.10.2008, a total of 15,541 patients were enrolled by 44 documenting sites. In September 2007, the cohort size was reduced to ten outpatient clinics and fifteen private practitioners, covering a total of 9,410 patients. The documentation of these patients comprised 24,117 years of follow up-time since enrolment (mean: 2.6 years), 62,862 person years inclusive data documented retrospectively on course of HIV-infection and antiretroviral therapy (ART, mean: 6.7 years). Due to the short period of recruitment till now, rates of death (0.3%-0.8%) and losses to follow up (1.1%-5.5%) were low.

84.9% of patients were men. Main risk of transmission was sex between men (MSM: 62.9%). Mean age was 45 years. About two third of patients were classified as CDC-stage B or C. Therapy regimens of currently treated patients complied with recent guidelines. Trends of mean CD4 cell count/μl regarding the initial therapy and concerning the population under treatment reflected the developments and the changing standards of antiretroviral therapy over time.

Conclusion

The KompNet cohort covers about a quarter of all patients estimated as being under treatment in Germany. Its composition can be accounted approximately representative for the situation of clinical care and treatment in the scope of HIV/AIDS in Germany. Therefore, it is an important instrument for measuring the course of HIV/AIDS, the reality of use of antiretroviral therapy and its clinical and psychosocial outcomes in Germany.

Trends of prevalence of primary HIV drug resistance in Germany

BACKGROUND

Primary HIV drug resistance (PDR) is associated with poor treatment outcome of first-line highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). The aim of the study was to observe the trend of prevalence of PDR between 2001 and 2005.

METHODS

In a prospective multicentre study in the state of Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany, 831 treatment-naive chronically HIV-infected patients underwent genotypic resistance testing.

RESULTS

Six hundred and forty (77%) of them were male. Two-thirds of the patients (558, 67%) were infected with HIV subtype B. PDR was found in 75 of 831 [9%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 7.1-10.9] cases entering the study between January 2001 and December 2005. An increasing trend of PDR was found from 2001 (4.8%; CI 2.1-9.4) to 2005 (9.0%; CI 5.4-12.6; P = 0.08). A significant tendency to higher PDR was observed for ethnicity other than Caucasian (P = 0.04), HIV subtypes other than B (P = 0.02) and transmission routes other than homosexual (P = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

A non-significant increase in prevalence of PDR was observed from 2001 to 2005. A significant trend to higher PDR rate was detected in non-Caucasian patients, patients infected with non-B subtypes, and in patients with risk factors for acquisition of HIV other than homosexual transmission. Based on the fact that there is a trend to higher PDR rate, resistance testing in untreated HIV-infected patients starting HAART becomes more important in clinical routine. The identification of patient subgroups with a remarkable risk of PDR makes continuous monitoring of PDR mandatory.