A Systematic Review of Predictor Composition, Outcomes, Risk of Bias, and Validation of COVID-19 Prognostic Scores

BACKGROUND

Numerous prognostic scores have been published to support risk stratification for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

We performed a systematic review to identify the scores for confirmed or clinically assumed COVID-19 cases. An in-depth assessment and risk of bias (ROB) analysis (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool [PROBAST]) was conducted for scores fulfilling predefined criteria ([I] area under the curve [AUC)] ≥ 0.75; [II] a separate validation cohort present; [III] training data from a multicenter setting [≥2 centers]; [IV] point-scale scoring system).

RESULTS

Out of 1522 studies extracted from MEDLINE/Web of Science (20/02/2023), we identified 242 scores for COVID-19 outcome prognosis (mortality 109, severity 116, hospitalization 14, long-term sequelae 3). Most scores were developed using retrospective (75.2%) or single-center (57.1%) cohorts. Predictor analysis revealed the primary use of laboratory data and sociodemographic information in mortality and severity scores. Forty-nine scores were included in the in-depth analysis. The results indicated heterogeneous quality and predictor selection, with only five scores featuring low ROB. Among those, based on the number and heterogeneity of validation studies, only the 4C Mortality Score can be recommended for clinical application so far.

CONCLUSIONS

The application and translation of most existing COVID scores appear unreliable. Guided development and predictor selection would have improved the generalizability of the scores and may enhance pandemic preparedness in the future.

Definition of the Post-COVID syndrome using a symptom-based Post-COVID score in a prospective, multi-center, cross-sectoral cohort of the German National Pandemic Cohort Network (NAPKON)

PURPOSE

The objective examination of the Post-COVID syndrome (PCS) remains difficult due to heterogeneous definitions and clinical phenotypes. The aim of the study was to verify the functionality and correlates of a recently developed PCS score.

METHODS

The PCS score was applied to the prospective, multi-center cross-sectoral cohort (in- and outpatients with SARS-CoV-2 infection) of the "National Pandemic Cohort Network (NAPKON, Germany)". Symptom assessment and patient-reported outcome measure questionnaires were analyzed at 3 and 12 months (3/12MFU) after diagnosis. Scores indicative of PCS severity were compared and correlated to demographic and clinical characteristics as well as quality of life (QoL, EQ-5D-5L).

RESULTS

Six hundred three patients (mean 54.0 years, 60.6% male, 82.0% hospitalized) were included. Among those, 35.7% (215) had no and 64.3% (388) had mild, moderate, or severe PCS. PCS severity groups differed considering sex and pre-existing respiratory diseases. 3MFU PCS worsened with clinical severity of acute infection (p = .011), and number of comorbidities (p = .004). PCS severity was associated with poor QoL at the 3MFU and 12MFU (p < .001).

CONCLUSION

The PCS score correlated with patients' QoL and demonstrated to be instructive for clinical characterization and stratification across health care settings. Further studies should critically address the high prevalence, clinical relevance, and the role of comorbidities.

TRAIL REGISTRATION NUMBER

The cohort is registered at www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov under NCT04768998.

Analysis of acute COVID-19 including chronic morbidity: protocol for the deep phenotyping National Pandemic Cohort Network in Germany (NAPKON-HAP)

BACKGROUND

The severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic causes a high burden of acute and long-term morbidity and mortality worldwide despite global efforts in containment, prophylaxis, and therapy. With unprecedented speed, the global scientific community has generated pivotal insights into the pathogen and the host response evoked by the infection. However, deeper characterization of the pathophysiology and pathology remains a high priority to reduce morbidity and mortality of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

NAPKON-HAP is a multi-centered prospective observational study with a long-term follow-up phase of up to 36 months post-SARS-CoV-2 infection. It constitutes a central platform for harmonized data and biospecimen for interdisciplinary characterization of acute SARS-CoV-2 infection and long-term outcomes of diverging disease severities of hospitalized patients.

RESULTS

Primary outcome measures include clinical scores and quality of life assessment captured during hospitalization and at outpatient follow-up visits to assess acute and chronic morbidity. Secondary measures include results of biomolecular and immunological investigations and assessment of organ-specific involvement during and post-COVID-19 infection. NAPKON-HAP constitutes a national platform to provide accessibility and usability of the comprehensive data and biospecimen collection to global research.

CONCLUSION

NAPKON-HAP establishes a platform with standardized high-resolution data and biospecimen collection of hospitalized COVID-19 patients of different disease severities in Germany. With this study, we will add significant scientific insights and provide high-quality data to aid researchers to investigate COVID-19 pathophysiology, pathology, and chronic morbidity.

Population data-based federated machine learning improves automated echocardiographic quantification of cardiac structure and function: the Automatisierte Vermessung der Echokardiographie project

Aims

Machine-learning (ML)-based automated measurement of echocardiography images emerges as an option to reduce observer variability. The objective of the study is to improve the accuracy of a pre-existing automated reading tool ('original detector') by federated ML-based re-training.

Methods and results

Automatisierte Vermessung der Echokardiographie was based on the echocardiography images of n = 4965 participants of the population-based Characteristics and Course of Heart Failure Stages A-B and Determinants of Progression Cohort Study. We implemented federated ML: echocardiography images were read by the Academic Core Lab Ultrasound-based Cardiovascular Imaging at the University Hospital Würzburg (UKW). A random algorithm selected 3226 participants for re-training of the original detector. According to data protection rules, the generation of ground truth and ML training cycles took place within the UKW network. Only non-personal training weights were exchanged with the external cooperation partner for the refinement of ML algorithms. Both the original detectors as the re-trained detector were then applied to the echocardiograms of n = 563 participants not used for training. With regard to the human referent, the re-trained detector revealed (i) superior accuracy when contrasted with the original detector's performance as it arrived at significantly smaller mean differences in all but one parameter, and a (ii) smaller absolute difference between measurements when compared with a group of different human observers.

Conclusion

Population data-based ML in a federated ML set-up was feasible. The re-trained detector exhibited a much lower measurement variability than human readers. This gain in accuracy and precision strengthens the confidence in automated echocardiographic readings, which carries large potential for applications in various settings.

Effects of a multimodal intervention in primary care to reduce second line antibiotic prescriptions for urinary tract infections in women: parallel, cluster randomised, controlled trial

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate whether a multimodal intervention in general practice reduces the proportion of second line antibiotic prescriptions and the overall proportion of antibiotic prescriptions for uncomplicated urinary tract infections in women.

DESIGN

Parallel, cluster randomised, controlled trial.

SETTING

General practices in five regions in Germany. Data were collected between 1 April 2021 and 31 March 2022.

PARTICIPANTS

General practitioners from 128 randomly assigned practices.

INTERVENTIONS

Multimodal intervention consisting of guideline recommendations for general practitioners and patients, provision of regional data for antibiotic resistance, and quarterly feedback, which included individual first line and second line proportions of antibiotic prescribing, benchmarking with regional or supra-regional practices, and telephone counselling. Participants in the control group received no information on the intervention.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome was the proportion of second line antibiotics prescribed by general practices, in relation to all antibiotics prescribed, for uncomplicated urinary tract infections after one year between the intervention and control group. General practices were randomly assigned in blocks (1:1), with a block size of four, into the intervention or control group using SAS version 9.4; randomisation was stratified by region. The secondary outcome was the prescription proportion of all antibiotics, relative within all cases (instances of UTI diagnosis), for the treatment of urinary tract infections after one year between the groups. Adverse events were assessed as exploratory outcomes.

RESULTS

110 practices with full datasets identified 10 323 cases during five quarters (ie, 15 months). The mean proportion of second line antibiotics prescribed was 0.19 (standard deviation 0.20) in the intervention group and 0.35 (0.25) in the control group after 12 months. After adjustment for preintervention proportions, the mean difference was -0.13 (95% confidence interval -0.21 to -0.06, P<0.001). The overall proportion of all antibiotic prescriptions for urinary tract infections over 12 months was 0.74 (standard deviation 0.22) in the intervention and 0.80 (0.15) in the control group with a mean difference of -0.08 (95% confidence interval -0.15 to -0.02, P<0.029). No differences were noted in the number of complications (ie, pyelonephritis, admission to hospital, or fever) between the groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The multimodal intervention in general practice significantly reduced the proportion of second line antibiotics and all antibiotic prescriptions for uncomplicated urinary tract infections in women.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS), DRKS00020389.

Impact of Clinical Study Implementation on Data Quality Assessments - Using Contradictions within Interdependent Health Data Items as a Pilot Indicator

INTRODUCTION

Contradiction is a relevant data quality indicator to evaluate the plausibility of interdependent health data items. However, while contradiction assessment is achieved using domain-established contradictory dependencies, recent studies have shown the necessity for additional requirements to reach conclusive contradiction findings. For example, the oral or rectal methods used in measuring the body temperature will influence the thresholds of fever definition. The availability of this required information as explicit data items must be guaranteed during study design. In this work, we investigate the impact of activities related to study database implementation on contradiction assessment from two perspectives including: 1) additionally required metadata and 2) implementation of checks within electronic case report forms to prevent contradictory data entries.

METHODS

Relevant information (timestamps, measurement methods, units, and interdependency rules) required for contradiction checks are identified. Scores are assigned to these parameters and two different studies are evaluated based on the fulfillment of the requirements by two selected interdependent data item sets.

RESULTS

None of the studies have fulfilled all requirements. While timestamps and measurement units are found, missing information about measurement methods may impede conclusive contradiction assessment. Implemented checks are only found if data are directly entered.

DISCUSSION

Conclusive contradiction assessment typically requires metadata in the context of captured data items. Consideration during study design and implementation of data capture systems may support better data quality in studies and could be further adopted in primary health information systems to enhance clinical anamnestic documentation.

Increased circulating fibronectin, depletion of natural IgM and heightened EBV, HSV-1 reactivation in ME/CFS and long COVID

Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/ Chronic Fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) is a complex, debilitating, long-term illness without a diagnostic biomarker. ME/CFS patients share overlapping symptoms with long COVID patients, an observation which has strengthened the infectious origin hypothesis of ME/CFS. However, the exact sequence of events leading to disease development is largely unknown for both clinical conditions. Here we show antibody response to herpesvirus dUTPases, particularly to that of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) and HSV-1, increased circulating fibronectin (FN1) levels in serum and depletion of natural IgM against fibronectin ((n)IgM-FN1) are common factors for both severe ME/CFS and long COVID. We provide evidence for herpesvirus dUTPases-mediated alterations in host cell cytoskeleton, mitochondrial dysfunction and OXPHOS. Our data show altered active immune complexes, immunoglobulin-mediated mitochondrial fragmentation as well as adaptive IgM production in ME/CFS patients. Our findings provide mechanistic insight into both ME/CFS and long COVID development. Finding of increased circulating FN1 and depletion of (n)IgM-FN1 as a biomarker for the severity of both ME/CFS and long COVID has an immediate implication in diagnostics and development of treatment modalities.

Consistency as a Data Quality Measure for German Corona Consensus Items Mapped from National Pandemic Cohort Network Data Collections

BACKGROUND

 As a national effort to better understand the current pandemic, three cohorts collect sociodemographic and clinical data from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients from different target populations within the German National Pandemic Cohort Network (NAPKON). Furthermore, the German Corona Consensus Dataset (GECCO) was introduced as a harmonized basic information model for COVID-19 patients in clinical routine. To compare the cohort data with other GECCO-based studies, data items are mapped to GECCO. As mapping from one information model to another is complex, an additional consistency evaluation of the mapped items is recommended to detect possible mapping issues or source data inconsistencies.

OBJECTIVES

 The goal of this work is to assure high consistency of research data mapped to the GECCO data model. In particular, it aims at identifying contradictions within interdependent GECCO data items of the German national COVID-19 cohorts to allow investigation of possible reasons for identified contradictions. We furthermore aim at enabling other researchers to easily perform data quality evaluation on GECCO-based datasets and adapt to similar data models.

METHODS

 All suitable data items from each of the three NAPKON cohorts are mapped to the GECCO items. A consistency assessment tool (dqGecco) is implemented, following the design of an existing quality assessment framework, retaining their-defined consistency taxonomies, including logical and empirical contradictions. Results of the assessment are verified independently on the primary data source.

RESULTS

 Our consistency assessment tool helped in correcting the mapping procedure and reveals remaining contradictory value combinations within COVID-19 symptoms, vital signs, and COVID-19 severity. Consistency rates differ between the different indicators and cohorts ranging from 95.84% up to 100%.

CONCLUSION

 An efficient and portable tool capable of discovering inconsistencies in the COVID-19 domain has been developed and applied to three different cohorts. As the GECCO dataset is employed in different platforms and studies, the tool can be directly applied there or adapted to similar information models.

Experiencing COVID-19, home isolation and primary health care: A mixed-methods study

Objectives

Although the vast majority of COVID-19 cases are treated in primary care, patients' experiences during home isolation have been little studied. This study aimed to explore the experiences of patients with acute COVID-19 and to identify challenges after the initial adaptation of the German health system to the pandemic (after first infection wave from February to June 2020).

Methods

A mixed-method convergent design was used to gain a holistic insight into patients experience. The study consisted of a cross-sectional survey, open survey answers and semi-structured telephone interviews. Descriptive analysis was performed on quantitative survey answers. Between group differences were calculated to explore changes after the first infection wave. Qualitative thematic analysis was conducted on open survey answers and interviews. The results were then compared within a triangulation protocol.

Results

A total of 1100 participants from all German states were recruited by 145 general practitioners from August 2020 to April 2021, 42 additionally took part in qualitative interviews. Disease onset varied from February 2020 to April 2021. After the first infection wave, more participants were tested positive during the acute disease (88.8%; 95.2%; P < 0.001). Waiting times for tests (mean 4.5 days, SD 4.1; 2.7days, SD 2.6, P < 0.001) and test results (mean 2.4 days, SD 1.9; 1.8 days, SD 1.3, P < 0.001) decreased. Qualitative results indicated that the availability of repeated testing and antigen tests reduced insecurities, transmission and related guilt. Although personal consultations at general practices increased (6.8%; 15.5%, P < 0.001), telephone consultation remained the main mode of consultation (78.5%) and video remained insignificant (1.9%). The course of disease, the living situation and social surroundings during isolation, access to health care, personal resilience, spirituality and feelings of guilt and worries emerged as themes influencing the illness experience. Challenges were contact management and adequate provision of care during home isolation. A constant contact person within the health system helped against feelings of care deprivation, uncertainty and fear.

Conclusions

Our study highlights that home isolation of individuals with COVID-19 requires a holistic approach that considers all aspects of patient care and effective coordination between different care providers.

1886. External Validation of the 4C Mortality Score and the qSOFA for Different Variants of Concerns of SARS-CoV-2 Using Data of the NAPKON Cross-Sectoral Cohort Platform (SUEP)

Background

Numerous predictive clinical scores with varying discriminatory performance have been developed in the context of the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. To support clinical application, we test the transferability of the frequently applied 4C mortality score (4C score) to the German prospective Cross-Sectoral Platform (SUEP) of the National Pandemic Cohort Network (NAPKON) compared to the non COVID-19 specific quick sequential organ failure assessment score (qSOFA). Our project aims to externally validate these two scores, stratified for the most prevalent variants of concerns (VOCs) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Germany.

Methods

A total of 685 adults with polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-detected SARS-CoV-2 infection were included from NAPKON-SUEP. Patients were recruited from 11/2020 to 03/2022 at 34 university and non-university hospitals across Germany. Missing values were complemented using multiple imputation. Predictive performance for in-hospital mortality at day of baseline visit was determined by area under the curve (AUC) with 95%-confidence interval (CI) stratified by VOCs of SARS-CoV-2 (alpha, delta, omicron) (Figure 1). Figure 1:

Severity, predictors and clinical correlates of Post-COVID syndrome (PCS) in Germany: A prospective, multi-centre, population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Post-COVID syndrome (PCS) is an important sequela of COVID-19, characterised by symptom persistence for >3 months, post-acute symptom development, and worsening of pre-existing comorbidities. The causes and public health impact of PCS are still unclear, not least for the lack of efficient means to assess the presence and severity of PCS.

METHODS

COVIDOM is a population-based cohort study of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection, recruited through public health authorities in three German regions (Kiel, Berlin, Würzburg) between November 15, 2020 and September 29, 2021. Main inclusion criteria were (i) a PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and (ii) a period of at least 6 months between the infection and the visit to the COVIDOM study site. Other inclusion criteria were written informed consent and age ≥18 years. Key exclusion criterion was an acute reinfection with SARS-CoV-2. Study site visits included standardised interviews, in-depth examination, and biomaterial procurement. In sub-cohort Kiel-I, a PCS (severity) score was developed based upon 12 long-term symptom complexes. Two validation sub-cohorts (Würzburg/Berlin, Kiel-II) were used for PCS score replication and identification of clinically meaningful predictors. This study is registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04679584) and at the German Registry for Clinical Studies (DRKS, DRKS00023742).

FINDINGS

In Kiel-I (n = 667, 57% women), 90% of participants had received outpatient treatment for acute COVID-19. Neurological ailments (61·5%), fatigue (57·1%), and sleep disturbance (57·0%) were the most frequent persisting symptoms at 6-12 months after infection. Across sub-cohorts (Würzburg/Berlin, n = 316, 52% women; Kiel-II, n = 459, 56% women), higher PCS scores were associated with lower health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L-VAS/-index: r = -0·54/ -0·56, all p < 0·0001). Severe, moderate, and mild/no PCS according to the individual participant's PCS score occurred in 18·8%, 48·2%, and 32·9%, respectively, of the Kiel-I sub-cohort. In both validation sub-cohorts, statistically significant predictors of the PCS score included the intensity of acute phase symptoms and the level of personal resilience.

INTERPRETATION

PCS severity can be quantified by an easy-to-use symptom-based score reflecting acute phase disease burden and general psychological predisposition. The PCS score thus holds promise to facilitate the clinical diagnosis of PCS, scientific studies of its natural course, and the development of therapeutic interventions.

FUNDING

The COVIDOM study is funded by the Network University Medicine (NUM) as part of the National Pandemic Cohort Network (NAPKON).

The German National Pandemic Cohort Network (NAPKON): rationale, study design and baseline characteristics

The German government initiated the Network University Medicine (NUM) in early 2020 to improve national research activities on the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. To this end, 36 German Academic Medical Centers started to collaborate on 13 projects, with the largest being the National Pandemic Cohort Network (NAPKON). The NAPKON’s goal is creating the most comprehensive Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cohort in Germany. Within NAPKON, adult and pediatric patients are observed in three complementary cohort platforms (Cross-Sectoral, High-Resolution and Population-Based) from the initial infection until up to three years of follow-up. Study procedures comprise comprehensive clinical and imaging diagnostics, quality-of-life assessment, patient-reported outcomes and biosampling. The three cohort platforms build on four infrastructure core units (Interaction, Biosampling, Epidemiology, and Integration) and collaborations with NUM projects. Key components of the data capture, regulatory, and data privacy are based on the German Centre for Cardiovascular Research. By April 01, 2022, 34 university and 40 non-university hospitals have enrolled 5298 patients with local data quality reviews performed on 4727 (89%). 47% were female, the median age was 52 (IQR 36–62-) and 50 pediatric cases were included. 44% of patients were hospitalized, 15% admitted to an intensive care unit, and 12% of patients deceased while enrolled. 8845 visits with biosampling in 4349 patients were conducted by April 03, 2022. In this overview article, we summarize NAPKON’s design, relevant milestones including first study population characteristics, and outline the potential of NAPKON for German and international research activities.

Trial registrationhttps://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04768998.https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04747366.https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04679584

Impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on stroke teleconsultations in Germany in the first half of 2020

Background and purpose

The effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) pandemic on telemedical care have not been described on a national level. Thus, we investigated the medical stroke treatment situation before, during, and after the first lockdown in Germany.

Methods

In this nationwide, multicenter study, data from 14 telemedical networks including 31 network centers and 155 spoke hospitals covering large parts of Germany were analyzed regarding patients' characteristics, stroke type/severity, and acute stroke treatment. A survey focusing on potential shortcomings of in‐hospital and (telemedical) stroke care during the pandemic was conducted.

Results

Between January 2018 and June 2020, 67,033 telemedical consultations and 38,895 telemedical stroke consultations were conducted. A significant decline of telemedical (p < 0.001) and telemedical stroke consultations (p < 0.001) during the lockdown in March/April 2020 and a reciprocal increase after relaxation of COVID‐19 measures in May/June 2020 were observed. Compared to 2018–2019, neither stroke patients' age (p = 0.38), gender (p = 0.44), nor severity of ischemic stroke (p = 0.32) differed in March/April 2020. Whereas the proportion of ischemic stroke patients for whom endovascular treatment (14.3% vs. 14.6%; p = 0.85) was recommended remained stable, there was a nonsignificant trend toward a lower proportion of recommendation of intravenous thrombolysis during the lockdown (19.0% vs. 22.1%; p = 0.052). Despite the majority of participating network centers treating patients with COVID‐19, there were no relevant shortcomings reported regarding in‐hospital stroke treatment or telemedical stroke care.

Conclusions

Telemedical stroke care in Germany was able to provide full service despite the COVID‐19 pandemic, but telemedical consultations declined abruptly during the lockdown period and normalized after relaxation of COVID‐19 measures in Germany.