Ecological dependencies make remote reef fish communities most vulnerable to coral loss

Restoration cannot be scaled up globally to save reefs from loss and degradation

Coral restoration is gaining popularity as part of a continuum of approaches addressing the widespread, recurring mass mortality events of corals that-together with elevated and chronic mortality, slower growth and recruitment failure-threaten the persistence of coral reefs worldwide. However, the monetary costs associated with broad-scale coral restoration are massive, making widespread implementation challenging, especially with the lack of coordinated and ecologically informed planning. By combining a comprehensive dataset documenting the success of coral restoration with current and forecasted environmental, ecological and climate data, we highlight how such a coordinated and ecologically informed approach is not forthcoming, despite the extent of previous and ongoing efforts. We show that: (1) restoration sites tend to be disproportionally close to human settlements and therefore more vulnerable to local anthropogenic impacts; (2) the immediate outcomes of restoration do not appear to be influenced by relevant ecological and environmental predictors such as cumulative impact; and (3) most restored localities have a high and severe bleaching risk by the middle of this century, with more than half of recently restored sites already affected. Our findings highlight the need for the coral reef community to reinforce joint development of restoration guidelines that go beyond local objectives, with attention to ocean warming trends and their long-term impacts on coral resilience and restoration success.

Projected loss of brown macroalgae and seagrasses with global environmental change

Although many studies predict extensive future biodiversity loss and redistribution in the terrestrial realm, future changes in marine biodiversity remain relatively unexplored. In this work, we model global shifts in one of the most important marine functional groups-ecosystem-structuring macrophytes-and predict substantial end-of-century change. By modelling the future distribution of 207 brown macroalgae and seagrass species at high temporal and spatial resolution under different climate-change projections, we estimate that by 2100, local macrophyte diversity will decline by 3-4% on average, with 17 to 22% of localities losing at least 10% of their macrophyte species. The current range of macrophytes will be eroded by 5-6%, and highly suitable macrophyte habitat will be substantially reduced globally (78-96%). Global macrophyte habitat will shift among marine regions, with a high potential for expansion in polar regions.

Marine protected areas promote stability of reef fish communities under climate warming

Protection from direct human impacts can safeguard marine life, yet ocean warming crosses marine protected area boundaries. Here, we test whether protection offers resilience to marine heatwaves from local to network scales. We examine 71,269 timeseries of population abundances for 2269 reef fish species surveyed in 357 protected versus 747 open sites worldwide. We quantify the stability of reef fish abundance from populations to metacommunities, considering responses of species and functional diversity including thermal affinity of different trophic groups. Overall, protection mitigates adverse effects of marine heatwaves on fish abundance, community stability, asynchronous fluctuations and functional richness. We find that local stability is positively related to distance from centers of high human density only in protected areas. We provide evidence that networks of protected areas have persistent reef fish communities in warming oceans by maintaining large populations and promoting stability at different levels of biological organization.

Interactions between quorum sensing/quorum quenching and virulence genes may affect coral health by regulating symbiotic bacterial community

Quorum sensing (QS) and quorum quenching (QQ) are two antagonistic processes that may regulate the composition, function and structure of bacterial community. In coral holobiont, autoinducers signaling mediate the communication pathways between interspecies and intraspecies bacteria, which regulate the expression of the virulence factors that can damage host health. However, under environmental stressors, the interaction between the QS/QQ gene and virulence factors and their role in the bacterial communities and coral bleaching is still not fully clear. To address this question, here, metagenomics method was used to examine the profile of QS/QQ and virulence genes from a deeply sequenced microbial database, obtained from three bleached and non-bleached corals species. The prediction of bacterial genes of bleached samples involved in functional metabolic pathways were remarkably decreased, and the bacterial community structure on bleached samples was significantly different compared to non-bleached samples. The distribution and significant difference in QS/QQ and virulence genes were also carried out. We found that Proteobacteria was dominant bacteria among all samples, and AI-1 system is widespread within this group of bacteria. The identified specific genes consistently exhibited a trend of increased pathogenicity in bleached corals relative to non-bleached corals. The abundance of pathogenicity-associated QS genes, including bapA, pfoA and dgcB genes, were significantly increased in bleached corals and can encode the protein of biofilm formation and the membrane damaging toxins promoting pathogenic adhesion and infection. Similarly, the virulence genes, such as superoxide dismutase (Mn-SOD gene), metalloproteinase (yme1, yydH and zmpB), glycosidases (malE, malF, malG, and malK) and LodAB (lodB) genes significantly increased. Conversely, QQ genes that inhibit QS activity and virulence factors to defense the pathogens, including blpA, lsrK, amiE, aprE and gmuG showed a significant decrease in bleached groups. Furthermore, the significant correlations were found among virulence, QS/QQ genes, and coral associated bacterial community, and the virulence genes interact with key QS/QQ genes, directly or indirectly influence symbiotic bacterial communities homeostasis, thereby impacting coral health. It suggested that the functional and structural divergence in the symbiont bacteria may be partially attribute to the interplay, involving interactions among the host, bacterial communication signal systems, and bacterial virulence factors. In conclusion, these data helped to reveal the characteristic behavior of coral symbiotic bacteria, and facilitated a better understanding of bleaching mechanism from a chemical ecological perspective.

Coextinctions dominate future vertebrate losses from climate and land use change

Although theory identifies coextinctions as a main driver of biodiversity loss, their role at the planetary scale has yet to be estimated. We subjected a global model of interconnected terrestrial vertebrate food webs to future (2020-2100) climate and land-use changes. We predict a 17.6% (± 0.16% SE) average reduction of local vertebrate diversity globally by 2100, with coextinctions increasing the effect of primary extinctions by 184.2% (± 10.9% SE) on average under an intermediate emissions scenario. Communities will lose up to a half of ecological interactions, thus reducing trophic complexity, network connectance, and community resilience. The model reveals that the extreme toll of global change for vertebrate diversity might be of secondary importance compared to the damages to ecological network structure.

Volatility in coral cover erodes niche structure, but not diversity, in reef fish assemblages

The world's coral reefs are experiencing increasing volatility in coral cover, largely because of anthropogenic environmental change, highlighting the need to understand how such volatility will influence the structure and dynamics of reef assemblages. These changes may influence not only richness or evenness but also the temporal stability of species' relative abundances (temporal beta-diversity). Here, we analyzed reef fish assemblage time series from the Great Barrier Reef to show that, overall, 75% of the variance in abundance among species was attributable to persistent differences in species' long-term mean abundances. However, the relative importance of stochastic fluctuations in abundance was higher on reefs that experienced greater volatility in coral cover, whereas it did not vary with drivers of alpha-diversity. These findings imply that increased coral cover volatility decreases temporal stability in relative abundances of fishes, a transformation that is not detectable from static measures of biodiversity.