Tropical deforestation causes large reductions in observed precipitation

Modeling the impacts of oil palm plantations on water quantity and quality in the Kais River Watershed of Indonesia

Oil palm plantations can impact hydrological processes in many tropical watersheds. The rapid conversion of tropical rainforests for commercial operations in recent decades has been associated with water scarcity, flooding, and polluted rivers. However, this widespread and emerging issue is less studied and underreported due to limited data availability, modeling complexity, and the remote nature of these landscapes. Ecohydrologic modeling enables us to investigate changes in watershed conditions caused by large-scale land cover changes from plantations. This study examines the impact of oil plantations on water quantity and quality using the SWAT+ model in the Kais River Watershed, West Papua, Indonesia. The objective is to assess the hydrological changes concerning land cover conversion to oil palm plantations. Results show that establishing oil palm plantations increased surface runoff by 21 %, and sediment yields rose by 16.9 % compared to the baseline. There was also a significant increase of 78 % in mean annual total nitrogen and 144 % in total phosphorous after the plantations' establishment. The results show that forest conversion to oil palm plantations in the Kais River watershed is a primary driver of change in hydrological regimes, resulting in the deterioration of water quality. There is a need for conservation strategies to mitigate the impacts of significant landscape changes in watershed ecosystems.

Identifying drivers of non-stationary climate-growth relationships of European beech

The future performance of the widely abundant European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) across its ecological amplitude is uncertain. Although beech is considered drought-sensitive and thus negatively affected by drought events, scientific evidence indicating increasing drought vulnerability under climate change on a cross-regional scale remains elusive. While evaluating changes in climate sensitivity of secondary growth offers a promising avenue, studies from productive, closed-canopy forests suffer from knowledge gaps, especially regarding the natural variability of climate sensitivity and how it relates to radial growth as an indicator of tree vitality. Since beech is sensitive to drought, we in this study use a drought index as a climate variable to account for the combined effects of temperature and water availability and explore how the drought sensitivity of secondary growth varies temporally in dependence on growth variability, growth trends, and climatic water availability across the species' ecological amplitude. Our results show that drought sensitivity is highly variable and non-stationary, though consistently higher at dry sites compared to moist sites. Increasing drought sensitivity can largely be explained by increasing climatic aridity, especially as it is exacerbated by climate change and trees' rank progression within forest communities, as (co-)dominant trees are more sensitive to extra-canopy climatic conditions than trees embedded in understories. However, during the driest periods of the 20th century, growth showed clear signs of being decoupled from climate. This may indicate fundamental changes in system behavior and be early-warning signals of decreasing drought tolerance. The multiple significant interaction terms in our model elucidate the complexity of European beech's drought sensitivity, which needs to be taken into consideration when assessing this species' response to climate change.

Impacts of commodity prices and governance on the expansion of tropical agricultural frontiers

Deforestation in the tropics remains a significant global challenge linked to carbon emissions and biodiversity loss. Agriculture, forestry, wildfires, and urbanization have been repeatedly identified as main drivers of tropical deforestation. Understanding the underlying mechanisms behind these direct causes is crucial to navigate the multiple tradeoffs between competing forest uses, such as food and biomass production (SDG 2), climate action (SDG 13), and life on land (SDG 15). This paper develops and implements a global-scale empirical approach to quantify two key factors affecting land use decisions at tropical forest frontiers: agricultural commodity prices and national governance. It relies on data covering the period 2004-2015 from multiple public sources, aggregated to countries and agro-ecological zones. Our analysis confirms the persistent influence of commodity prices on agricultural land expansion, especially in forest-abundant regions. Economic and environmental governance quality co-determines processes of expansion and contraction of agricultural land in the tropics, yet at much smaller magnitudes than other drivers. We derive land supply elasticities for direct use in standard economic impact assessment models and demonstrate that our results make a difference in a Computable General Equilibrium framework.

Assessing the functional vulnerability of woody plant communities within a large scale tropical rainforest dynamics plot

Introduction

Tropical forests are characterized by intricate mosaics of species-rich and structurally complex forest communities. Evaluating the functional vulnerability of distinct community patches is of significant importance in establishing conservation priorities within tropical forests. However, previous assessments of functional vulnerability in tropical forests have often focused solely on isolated factors or individual disturbance events, with limited consideration for a broad spectrum of disturbances and the responses of diverse species.

Methods

We assessed the functional vulnerability of woody plant communities in a 60-ha dynamic plot within a tropical montane rainforest by conducting in silico simulations of a wide range disturbances. These simulations combined plant functional traits and community properties, including the distribution of functional redundancy across the entire trait space, the distribution of abundance across species, and the relationship between species trait distinctiveness and species abundance. We also investigated the spatial distribution patterns of functional vulnerability and their scale effects, and employed a spatial autoregressive model to examine the relationships between both biotic and abiotic factors and functional vulnerability at different scales.

Results

The functional vulnerability of tropical montane rainforest woody plant communities was generally high (the functional vulnerability of observed communities was very close to that of the most vulnerable virtual community, with a value of 72.41% on average at the 20m×20m quadrat scale), and they exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity. Functional vulnerability decreased with increasing spatial scale and the influence of both biotic and abiotic factors on functional vulnerability was regulated by spatial scale, with soil properties playing a dominant role.

Discussion

Our study provides new specific insights into the comprehensive assessment of functional vulnerability in the tropical rainforest. We highlighted that functional vulnerabilities of woody plant communities and their sensitivity to environmental factors varied significantly within and across spatial scales in the tropical rainforest landscape. Preserving and maintaining the functionality of tropical ecosystems should take into consideration the variations in functional vulnerability among different plant communities and their sensitivity to environmental factors.

Effects of forest thinning on sap flow dynamics and transpiration in a Japanese cedar forest

Historically, forest thinning in Japan was conducted to obtain high-quality timber from plantations. Today, in contrast, thinning is also motivated by forest water balance and climate change considerations. It is in this context that the present study examines the effects of thinning on the ecophysiological responses of remaining trees, which are inadequately understood, especially in relation to changes in the magnitude and duration of transpiration. Sap flux densities were measured in both outer and inner sapwood to obtain stand-scale transpiration for two years in the pre-thinning state and three years post-thinning. The effects of thinning on transpiration were quantitatively evaluated based on canopy conductance models. The larger increases in outer sap flux density were found in the first year after the treatment, while those in inner sap flux density were detected in the second and third years. The remaining trees required a few of years to adjust to improved light conditions of the lower crown, resulting in a delayed response of inner sap flux density. As a result of this lag, transpiration was reduced to 71 % of the pre-thinning condition in the first year, but transpiration recovered to the pre-thinning levels in the second and third years due to compensating contributions from inner sap flow. In terms of more accurately chronicling the thinning effect, the distribution of sap flux density with respect to its radial pattern, is necessary. Such measurements are key to more comprehensively examining the ecophysiological response of forest plantations to thinning and, ultimately, its effect on the forest water balance.

Reconfiguration of Amazon's connectivity in the climate system

With the recent increase in deforestation, forest fires, and regional temperatures, the concerns around the rapid and complete collapse of the Amazon rainforest ecosystem have heightened. The thresholds of deforestation and the temperature increase required for such a catastrophic event are still uncertain. However, our analysis presented here shows that signatures of changing Amazon are already apparent in historical climate data sets. Here, we extend the methods of climate network analysis and apply them to study the temporal evolution of the connectivity between the Amazon rainforest and the global climate system. We observe that the Amazon rainforest is losing short-range connectivity and gaining more long-range connections, indicating shifts in regional-scale processes. Using embeddings inspired by manifold learning, we show that the Amazon connectivity patterns have undergone a fundamental shift in the 21st century. By investigating edge-based network metrics on similar regions to the Amazon, we see the changing properties of the Amazon are noticeable in comparison. Furthermore, we simulate diffusion and random walks on these networks and observe a faster spread of perturbations from the Amazon in recent decades. Our methodology innovations can act as a template for examining the spatiotemporal patterns of regional climate change and its impact on global climate using the toolbox of climate network analysis.

C:N:P stoichiometry of plants, soils, and microorganisms: Response to altered precipitation

Precipitation changes modify C, N, and P cycles, which regulate the functions and structure of terrestrial ecosystems. Although altered precipitation affects above- and belowground C:N:P stoichiometry, considerable uncertainties remain regarding plant-microbial nutrient allocation strategies under increased (IPPT) and decreased (DPPT) precipitation. We meta-analyzed 827 observations from 235 field studies to investigate the effects of IPPT and DPPT on the C:N:P stoichiometry of plants, soils, and microorganisms. DPPT reduced leaf C:N ratio, but increased the leaf and root N:P ratios reflecting stronger decrease of P compared with N mobility in soil under drought. IPPT increased microbial biomass C (+13%), N (+15%), P (26%), and the C:N ratio, whereas DPPT decreased microbial biomass N (-12%) and the N:P ratio. The C:N and N:P ratios of plant leaves were more sensitive to medium DPPT than to IPPT because drought increased plant N content, particularly in humid areas. The responses of plant and soil C:N:P stoichiometry to altered precipitation did not fit the double asymmetry model with a positive asymmetry under IPPT and a negative asymmetry under extreme DPPT. Soil microorganisms were more sensitive to IPPT than to DPPT, but they were more sensitive to extreme DPPT than extreme IPPT, consistent with the double asymmetry model. Soil microorganisms maintained stoichiometric homeostasis, whereas N:P ratios of plants follow that of the soils under altered precipitation. In conclusion, specific N allocation strategies of plants and microbial communities as well as N and P availability in soil critically mediate C:N:P stoichiometry by altered precipitation that need to be considered by prediction of ecosystem functions and C cycling under future climate change scenarios.

Estimating the spatial amplification of damage caused by degradation in the Amazon

The Amazon rainforests have been undergoing unprecedented levels of human-induced disturbances. In addition to local impacts, such changes are likely to cascade following the eastern-western atmospheric flow generated by trade winds. We propose a model of spatial and temporal interactions created by this flow to estimate the spread of effects from local disturbances to downwind locations along atmospheric trajectories. The spatial component captures cascading effects propagated by neighboring regions, while the temporal component captures the persistence of local disturbances. Importantly, all these network effects can be described by a single matrix, acting as a spatial multiplier that amplifies local forest disturbances. This matrix holds practical implications for policymakers as they can use it to easily map where the damage of an initial forest disturbance is amplified and propagated to. We identify regions that are likely to cause the largest impact throughout the basin and those that are the most vulnerable to shocks caused by remote deforestation. On average, the presence of cascading effects mediated by winds in the Amazon doubles the impact of an initial damage. However, there is heterogeneity in this impact. While damage in some regions does not propagate, in others, amplification can reach 250%. Since we only account for spillovers mediated by winds, our multiplier of 2 should be seen as a lower bound.

Amazon deforestation causes strong regional warming

Tropical deforestation impacts the climate through complex land-atmosphere interactions causing local and regional warming. However, whilst the impacts of deforestation on local temperature are well understood, the regional (nonlocal) response is poorly quantified. Here, we used remote-sensed observations of forest loss and dry season land-surface temperature during the period 2001 to 2020 to demonstrate that deforestation of the Amazon caused strong warming at distances up to 100 km away from the forest loss. We apply a machine learning approach to show nonlocal warming due to forest loss at 2-100 km length scales increases the warming due to deforestation by more than a factor 4, from 0.16 K to 0.71 K for each 10-percentage points of forest loss. We estimate that rapid future deforestation under a strong inequality scenario could cause dry season warming of 0.96 K across Mato Grosso state in southern Brazil over the period 2020 to 2050. Reducing deforestation could reduce future warming caused by forest loss to 0.4 K. Our results demonstrate the contribution of tropical deforestation to regional climate warming and the potential for reduced deforestation to deliver regional climate adaptation and resilience with important implications for sustainable management of the Amazon.

Modeling early warning signs of possible Amazon Forest dieback

Deforestation of the Amazon may reach a critical point where abrupt declines in rainfall could cause widespread forest dieback.

The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation

The Amazon rainforest is threatened by land-use change and increasing drought and fire frequency. Studies suggest an abrupt dieback of large parts of the rainforest after partial forest loss, but the critical threshold, underlying mechanisms, and possible impacts of forest degradation on the monsoon circulation remain uncertain. Here, we use a nonlinear dynamical model of the moisture transport and recycling across the Amazon to identify several precursor signals for a critical transition in the coupled atmosphere-vegetation dynamics. Guided by our simulations, we reveal both statistical and physical precursor signals of an approaching critical transition in reanalysis and observational data. In accordance with our model results, we attribute these characteristic precursor signals to the nearing of a critical transition of the coupled Amazon atmosphere-vegetation system induced by forest loss due to deforestation, droughts, and fires. The transition would lead to substantially drier conditions, under which the rainforest could likely not be maintained.

Do Southeast Asia's paleo-Antarctic trees cool the planet?

Many tree genera in the Malesian uplands have Southern Hemisphere origins, often supported by austral fossil records. Weathering the vast bedrock exposures in the everwet Malesian tropics may have consumed sufficient atmospheric CO₂ to contribute significantly to global cooling over the past 15 Myr. However, there has been no discussion of how the distinctive regional tree assemblages may have enhanced weathering and contributed to this process. We postulate that Gondwanan-sourced tree lineages that can dominate higher-elevation forests played an overlooked role in the Neogene CO₂ drawdown that led to the Ice Ages and the current, now-precarious climate state. Moreover, several historically abundant conifers in Araucariaceae and Podocarpaceae are likely to have made an outsized contribution through soil acidification that increases weathering. If the widespread destruction of Malesian lowland forests continues to spread into the uplands, the losses will threaten unique austral plant assemblages and, if our hypothesis is correct, a carbon sequestration engine that could contribute to cooler planetary conditions far into the future. Immediate effects include the spread of heat islands, significant losses of biomass carbon and forest-dependent biodiversity, erosion of watershed values, and the destruction of tens of millions of years of evolutionary history.

Responses of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus contents and stoichiometry in soil and fine roots to natural vegetation restoration in a tropical mountainous area, Southern China

The stoichiometry of key elements such as C, N, and P is an important indicator of ecosystem nutrient status and biogeochemical cycling. Nevertheless, the responses of soil and plant C:N:P stoichiometric characteristics to natural vegetation restoration remain poorly understood. In this study, we investigated C, N, and P contents and stoichiometry in soil and fine roots along vegetation restoration stages (grassland, shrubland, secondary forest, and primary forest) in a tropical mountainous area in southern China. We found that soil organic carbon, total N, C:P ratio, and N:P ratio significantly increased with vegetation restoration and significantly decreased with increasing soil depth, whereas there was no significant effect on soil total P and C:N ratio. Furthermore, vegetation restoration significantly increased the fine root N and P content and N:P ratio, whereas soil depth significantly decreased the fine root N content and increased the C:N ratio. The increasing average N:P ratio in fine roots from 17.59 to 21.45 suggested that P limitation increased with vegetation restoration. There were many significant correlations between C, N, and P contents and their ratios in soil and fine roots, indicating a reciprocal control of nutrient stoichiometric characteristics between them. These results contribute to our understanding of changes in soil and plant nutrient status and biogeochemical cycling during vegetation restoration and provide valuable information for restoration and management of tropical ecosystems.