StableClim, continuous projections of climate stability from 21000 BP to 2100 CE at multiple spatial scales

Global decoupling of functional and phylogenetic diversity in plant communities

Plant communities are composed of species that differ both in functional traits and evolutionary histories. As species' functional traits partly result from their individual evolutionary history, we expect the functional diversity of communities to increase with increasing phylogenetic diversity. This expectation has only been tested at local scales and generally for specific growth forms or specific habitat types, for example, grasslands. Here we compare standardized effect sizes for functional and phylogenetic diversity among 1,781,836 vegetation plots using the global sPlot database. In contrast to expectations, we find functional diversity and phylogenetic diversity to be only weakly and negatively correlated, implying a decoupling between these two facets of diversity. While phylogenetic diversity is higher in forests and reflects recent climatic conditions (1981 to 2010), functional diversity tends to reflect recent and past climatic conditions (21,000 years ago). The independent nature of functional and phylogenetic diversity makes it crucial to consider both aspects of diversity when analysing ecosystem functioning and prioritizing conservation efforts.

The cost of movement: assessing energy expenditure in a long-distant ectothermic migrant under climate change

Migration is an energetically taxing phenomenon as animals move across vast, heterogeneous landscapes where the cost of transport is impacted by permissible ambient conditions. In this study, we assessed the energetic demands of long-distance migration in a multigenerational ectothermic migrant, the monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus). We tested the hypotheses that temperature-dependent physiological processes reduce energy reserves faster during migration than previously estimated, and that increasing climatic temperatures resulting from the climate crisis will intensify baseline daily energy expenditure. First, we reared monarchs under laboratory conditions to assess energy and mass conversion from fifth instar to adult stages, as a baseline for migratory adult mass and ontogenetic shifts in metabolic rate from larvae to adult. Then, using historical tag-recapture data, we estimated the movement propensity and migratory pace of autumn migrants using computer simulations and subsequently calculated energy expenditure. Finally, we estimated the energy use of monarchs based on these tag-recapture data and used this information to estimate daily energy expenditure over a 57 year period. We found support for our two hypotheses, noting that incorporating standard metabolic rate into estimates of migratory energy expenditure shows higher energy demand and that daily energy expenditure has been gradually increasing over time since 1961. Our study shows the deleterious energetic consequences under current climate change trajectories and highlights the importance of incorporating energetic estimates for understanding migration by small, ectothermic migrants.

Evolutionary imbalance, climate and human history jointly shape the global biogeography of alien plants

Human activities are causing global biotic redistribution, translocating species and providing them with opportunities to establish populations beyond their native ranges. Species originating from certain global regions, however, are disproportionately represented among naturalized aliens. The evolutionary imbalance hypothesis posits that differences in absolute fitness among biogeographic divisions determine outcomes when biotas mix. Here, we compile data from native and alien distributions for nearly the entire global seed plant flora and find that biogeographic conditions predicted to drive evolutionary imbalance act alongside climate and anthropogenic factors to shape flows of successful aliens among regional biotas. Successful aliens tend to originate from large, biodiverse regions that support abundant populations and where species evolve against a diverse backdrop of competitors and enemies. We also reveal that these same native distribution characteristics are shared among the plants that humans select for cultivation and economic use. In addition to influencing species' innate potentials as invaders, we therefore suggest that evolutionary imbalance shapes plants' relationships with humans, impacting which species are translocated beyond their native distributions.

Faster ocean warming threatens richest areas of marine biodiversity

The vulnerability of marine biodiversity to accelerated rates of climatic change is poorly understood. By developing a new method for identifying extreme oceanic warming events during Earth's most recent deglaciation, and comparing these to 21st century projections, we show that future rates of ocean warming will disproportionately affect the most speciose marine communities, potentially threatening biodiversity in more than 70% of current-day global hotspots of marine species richness. The persistence of these richest areas of marine biodiversity will require many species to move well beyond the biogeographic realm where they are endemic, at rates of redistribution not previously seen. Our approach for quantifying exposure of biodiversity to past and future rates of oceanic warming provides new context and scalable information for deriving and strengthening conservation actions to safeguard marine biodiversity under climate change.

Process-explicit models reveal the structure and dynamics of biodiversity patterns

With ever-growing data availability and computational power at our disposal, we now have the capacity to use process-explicit models more widely to reveal the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity. Most research questions focused on the distribution of diversity cannot be answered experimentally, because many important environmental drivers and biological constraints operate at large spatiotemporal scales. However, we can encode proposed mechanisms into models, observe the patterns they produce in virtual environments, and validate these patterns against real-world data or theoretical expectations. This approach can advance understanding of generalizable mechanisms responsible for the distributions of organisms, communities, and ecosystems in space and time, advancing basic and applied science. We review recent developments in process-explicit models and how they have improved knowledge of the distribution and dynamics of life on Earth, enabling biodiversity to be better understood and managed through a deeper recognition of the processes that shape genetic, species, and ecosystem diversity.

Process-explicit models reveal the structure and dynamics of biodiversity patterns

With ever-growing data availability and computational power at our disposal, we now have the capacity to use process-explicit models more widely to reveal the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity. Most research questions focused on the distribution of diversity cannot be answered experimentally, because many important environmental drivers and biological constraints operate at large spatiotemporal scales. However, we can encode proposed mechanisms into models, observe the patterns they produce in virtual environments, and validate these patterns against real-world data or theoretical expectations. This approach can advance understanding of generalizable mechanisms responsible for the distributions of organisms, communities, and ecosystems in space and time, advancing basic and applied science. We review recent developments in process-explicit models and how they have improved knowledge of the distribution and dynamics of life on Earth, enabling biodiversity to be better understood and managed through a deeper recognition of the processes that shape genetic, species, and ecosystem diversity.

Climate Stability Index maps, a global high resolution cartography of climate stability from Pliocene to 2100

Climate changes are top biodiversity shapers, both during the past and future. Mapping the most climatic stable and unstable zones on Earth could improve our understanding of biodiversity distribution and evolution. Here, we present a set of maps based on a global scale, high resolution (ca. 5 km) new Climate Stability Index (CSI). The CSI considers bioclimatic variables for two different time ranges: (1) from Pliocene (3.3 Ma) to the present (CSI-past map set), using 12 time periods of PaleoClim representing warm and cold cycles; and (2) from present to the year 2100 (CSI-future), using nine general circulation models of climate change of four periods available from WorldClim. We calculated standard deviation of the variables and selected an uncorrelated set for summing, normalizing and obtaining the CSI maps. Our approach is useful for fields such as biogeography, earth sciences, agriculture, or sociology. However, CSI is an index that can be re-calculated according to particular criteria and objectives (e.g. temperature variables); maps are, therefore, customizable to every user.