Long-term increases in soil carbon due to ecosystem fertilization by atmospheric nitrogen deposition demonstrated by regional-scale modelling and observations

Shifts in microbial community composition and metabolism correspond with rapid soil carbon accumulation in response to 20 years of simulated nitrogen deposition

Anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition and fertilization in boreal forests frequently reduces decomposition and soil respiration and enhances C storage in the topsoil. This enhancement of the C sink can be as strong as the aboveground biomass response to N additions and has implications for the global C cycle, but the mechanisms remain elusive. We hypothesized that this effect would be associated with a shift in the microbial community and its activity, and particularly by fungal taxa reported to be capable of lignin degradation and organic N acquisition. We sampled the organic layer below the intact litter of a Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst) forest in northern Sweden after 20 years of annual N additions at low (12.5 kg N ha-1 yr-1) and high (50 kg N ha-1 yr-1) rates. We measured microbial biomass using phospholipid fatty-acid analysis (PLFA) and ergosterol measurements and used ITS metagenomics to profile the fungal community of soil and fine-roots. We probed the metabolic activity of the soil community by measuring the activity of extracellular enzymes and evaluated its relationships with the most N responsive soil fungal species. Nitrogen addition decreased the abundance of fungal PLFA markers and changed the fungal community in humus and fine-roots. Specifically, the humus community changed in part due to a shift from Oidiodendron pilicola, Cenococcum geophilum, and Cortinarius caperatus to Tylospora fibrillosa and Russula griseascens. These microbial community changes were associated with decreased activity of Mn-peroxidase and peptidase, and an increase in the activity of C acquiring enzymes. Our results show that the rapid accumulation of C in the humus layer frequently observed in areas with high N deposition is consistent with a shift in microbial metabolism, where decomposition associated with organic N acquisition is downregulated when inorganic N forms are readily available.

Early life PM2.5 exposure, childhood cognitive ability and mortality between age 11 and 86: A record-linkage life-course study from Scotland

BACKGROUND

Living in areas with high air pollution concentrations is associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Exposure in sensitive developmental periods might be long-lasting but studies with very long follow-up are rare, and mediating pathways between early life exposure and life-course mortality are not fully understood.

METHODS

Data were drawn from the Scottish Longitudinal Study Birth Cohort of 1936, a representative record-linkage study comprising 5% of the Scottish population born in 1936. Participants had valid age 11 cognitive ability test scores along with linked mortality data until age 86. Fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations estimated with the EMEP4UK atmospheric chemistry transport model were linked to participants' residential address derived from the National Identity Register in 1939 (age 3). Confounder-adjusted Cox regression estimated associations between PM2.5 and mortality; regression-based causal mediation analysis explored mediation through childhood cognitive ability.

RESULTS

The final sample consisted of 2734 individuals with 1608 deaths registered during the 1,833,517 person-months at risk follow-up time. Higher early life PM2.5 exposure increased the risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.04 per 10 μg m-3 increment), associations were stronger for mortality between age 65 and 86. PM2.5 increased the risk of cancer-related mortality (HR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02-1.08), especially for lung cancer among females (HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.02-1.21), but not for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Higher PM2.5 in early life (≥50 μg m-3) was associated with lower childhood cognitive ability, which, in turn, increased the risk of all-cause mortality and mediated 25% of the total associations.

CONCLUSIONS

In our life-course study with 75-year of continuous mortality records, we found that exposure to air pollution in early life was associated with higher mortality in late adulthood, and that childhood cognitive ability partly mediated this relationship. Findings suggest that past air pollution concentrations will likely impact health and longevity for decades to come.

Plant adaptation to climate change

Plants are vital to human health and well-being, as well as helping to protect the environment against the negative impacts of climate change. They are an essential part of the 'One Health' strategy that seeks to balance and optimize the health of people, animals and the environment. Crucially, plants are central to nature-based solutions to climate mitigation, not least because soil carbon storage is an attractive strategy for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and the associated climate change. Agriculture depends on genetically pure, high-quality seeds that are free from pests and pathogens and contain a required degree of genetic purity. This themed collection addresses key questions in the field encompassing the biochemical mechanisms that underlie plant responses and adaptations to a changing climate. This collection encompasses an analysis of the biochemistry and molecular mechanisms underpinning crop and forest resilience, together with considerations of plant adaptations to climate change-associated stresses, including drought, floods and heatwaves, and the increased threats posed by pathogens and pests.

Ecological impacts of the industrial revolution in a lowland raised peat bog near Manchester, NW England

(1) Ombrotrophic peat bogs provide valuable records of environmental change on long timescales but are rarely preserved near the major centers of industrial activity. Holcroft Moss is a rare example of a stratigraphically intact lowland peat bog in NW England, which provides a valuable opportunity to trace industrial impacts on vegetation in a sensitive environmental archive close to the early industrializing cities of Manchester and Liverpool. (2) We reconstructed environmental changes at Holcroft Moss before and after the Industrial Revolution using a decadal-scale record of pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, microcharcoal, peat composition (organic content and ash-free bulk density) and heavy metal content, constrained by a radiocarbon and SCP (spheroidal carbonaceous particle) chronology. We examine the relationship between abiotic and biotic environmental tracers using principal component analysis and evaluate the role of local and regional climatic and anthropogenic drivers using canonical redundancy analysis and partitioning of variation. (3) Results show significant changes in bog vegetation composition during the last 700 years. Prior to 1750 CE, climate and agro-pastoral activity (grazing and fires) were the main drivers of vegetation change. Subsequently, regional coal-fired industry contributed to major increases in atmospheric pollutants (dust, heavy metals, and acid deposition) that severely impacted vegetation, driving the decline of Sphagnum. Grasses rose to dominance in the 20th century associated especially with bog conversion and cumulative nitrogen deposition. Although atmospheric pollution significantly decreased in the post-industrial era, vegetation has not returned to pre-industrial conditions, reflecting the ongoing impact of global change drivers which pose challenges for conservation and restoration. (4) Synthesis. Paleoecological studies are needed to reveal the long-term history of vegetation degradation and to offer guidelines for restoration and conservation practices. This study reconstructs the last 700 years of a peat bog located between Manchester and Liverpool, revealing the timing and nature of vegetation changes across the trajectory of early industrialization and eventual post-industrial decline. Our study reveals the progressive dominance of regional anthropogenic forcing and highlights that the present-day vegetation does not have past analogs within the last 700 years. Conservation measures favoring the reintroduction of Sphagnum are justified in redressing the major biological legacy of the Industrial Revolution, while steps to increase Calluna should also be considered in light of its resilience to dry and fire-prone conditions.

The Grain-for-Green project offsets warming-induced soil organic carbon loss and increases soil carbon stock in Chinese Loess Plateau

The dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) stock is a vital element affecting the climate, and ecological restoration is potentially an effective measure to mitigate climate change by enhancing vegetation and soil carbon stocks and thereby offsetting greenhouse gas emissions. The Grain-for-Green project (GFGP) implemented in Chinese Loess Plateau (LP) since 1999 is one of the largest ecological restoration projects in the world. However, the contributions of ecological restoration and climate change to ecosystem soil carbon sequestration are still unclear. In this study, we improved a soil carbon decomposition framework by optimizing the initial SOC stock based on full spatial simulation of SOC and incorporating the priming effect to investigate the SOC dynamics across the LP GFGP region from 1982 through 2017. Our results indicated that SOC stock in the GFGP region increased by 20.18 Tg C from 1982 through 2017. Most portion (15.83 Tg C) of the SOC increase was accumulated when the GFGP was initiated, with a SOC sink of 16.12 Tg C owing to revegetation restoration and a carbon loss of 0.29 Tg C due to warming during this period. The relationships between SOC and forest canopy height and investigations on the SOC dynamics after afforestation revealed that the accumulation rate of SOC could be as high as 24.68 g C m^-2 yr^-1 during the 70 years following afforestation, and that SOC could decline thereafter (-8.89 g C m^-2 yr^-1), which was mainly caused by warming. This study provides a new method for quantifying the contribution of ecological restoration to SOC changes, and also cautions the potential risk of LP SOC loss in the mature forest soil under future warming.

Changes in organic carbon to clay ratios in different soils and land uses in England and Wales over time

Realistic targets for soil organic carbon (SOC) concentrations are needed, accounting for differences between soils and land uses. We assess the use of SOC/clay ratio for this purpose by comparing changes over time in (a) the National Soil Inventory of England and Wales, first sampled in 1978–1983 and resampled in 1994–2003, and (b) two long-term experiments under ley-arable rotations on contrasting soils in the East of England. The results showed that normalising for clay concentration provides a more meaningful separation between land uses than changes in SOC alone. Almost half of arable soils in the NSI had degraded SOC/clay ratios (< 1/13), compared with just 5% of permanent grass and woodland soils. Soils with initially large SOC/clay ratios (≥ 1/8) were prone to greater losses of SOC between the two NSI samplings than those with smaller ratios. The results suggest realistic long-term targets for SOC/clay in arable, ley grass, permanent grass and woodland soils are 1/13, 1/10, and > 1/8, respectively. Given the wide range of soils and land uses across England and Wales in the datasets used to test these targets, they should apply across similar temperate regions globally, and at national to sub-regional scales.

Measuring epistemic success of a biodiversity citizen science program: A citation study

This paper offers a comparative evaluation of the scientific impact of a citizen science program in ecology, ‘‘Vigie-Nature”, managed by the French National Museum of Natural History. Vigie-Nature consists of a national network of amateur observatories dedicated to a participative study of biodiversity in France that has been running for the last twenty years. We collected 123 articles published by Vigie-Nature in international peer-reviewed journals between 2007 and 2019, and computed the yearly amount of citations of these articles between 0–12 years post-publication. We then compared this body of citations with the number of yearly citations relative to the ensemble of the articles published in ecology and indexed in the ‘‘Web of Science” data-base. Using a longitudinal data analysis, we could observe that the yearly number of citations of the Vigie-Nature articles is significantly higher than that of the other publications in the same domain. Furthermore, this excess of citations tends to steadily grow over time: Vigie-Nature publications are about 1.5 times more cited 3 years after publication, and 3 times more cited 11 years post-publication. These results suggest that large-scale biodiversity citizen science projects are susceptible to reach a high epistemic impact, when managed in specific ways which need to be clarified through further investigations.

Predicting spatial patterns of soil bacteria under current and future environmental conditions

Soil bacteria are largely missing from future biodiversity assessments hindering comprehensive forecasts of ecosystem changes. Soil bacterial communities are expected to be more strongly driven by pH and less by other edaphic and climatic factors. Thus, alkalinisation or acidification along with climate change may influence soil bacteria, with subsequent influences for example on nutrient cycling and vegetation. Future forecasts of soil bacteria are therefore needed. We applied species distribution modelling (SDM) to quantify the roles of environmental factors in governing spatial abundance distribution of soil bacterial OTUs and to predict how future changes in these factors may change bacterial communities in a temperate mountain area. Models indicated that factors related to soil (especially pH), climate and/or topography explain and predict part of the abundance distribution of most OTUs. This supports the expectations that microorganisms have specific environmental requirements (i.e., niches/envelopes) and that they should accordingly respond to environmental changes. Our predictions indicate a stronger role of pH over other predictors (e.g. climate) in governing distributions of bacteria, yet the predicted future changes in bacteria communities are smaller than their current variation across space. The extent of bacterial community change predictions varies as a function of elevation, but in general, deviations from neutral soil pH are expected to decrease abundances and diversity of bacteria. Our findings highlight the need to account for edaphic changes, along with climate changes, in future forecasts of soil bacteria.

Long-term effects of atmospheric deposition on British plant species richness

The effects of atmospheric pollution on plant species richness (n_sp) are of widespread concern. We carried out a modelling exercise to estimate how n_sp in British semi-natural ecosystems responded to atmospheric deposition of nitrogen (N_dep) and sulphur (S_dep) between 1800 and 2010. We derived a simple four-parameter equation relating n_sp to measured soil pH, and to net primary productivity (NPP), calculated with the N14CP ecosystem model. Parameters were estimated from a large data set (n = 1156) of species richness in four vegetation classes, unimproved grassland, dwarf shrub heath, peatland, and broadleaved woodland, obtained in 2007. The equation performed reasonably well in comparisons with independent observations of n_sp. We used the equation, in combination with modelled estimates of NPP (from N14CP) and soil pH (from the CHUM-AM hydrochemical model), to calculate changes in average n_sp over time at seven sites across Britain, assuming that variations in n_sp were due only to variations in atmospheric deposition. At two of the sites, two vegetation classes were present, making a total of nine site/vegetation combinations. In four cases, n_sp was affected about equally by pH and NPP, while in another four the effect of pH was dominant. The ninth site, a chalk grassland, was affected only by NPP, since soil pH was assumed constant. Our analysis suggests that the combination of increased NPP, due to fertilization by N_dep, and decreased soil pH, primarily due to S_dep, caused an average species loss of 39% (range 23-100%) between 1800 and the late 20th Century. The modelling suggests that in recent years n_sp has begun to increase, almost entirely due to reductions in S_dep and consequent increases in soil pH, but there are also indications of recent slight recovery from the eutrophying effects of N_dep.

A study over 33 years shows that carbon and nitrogen stocks in a subtropical soil are increasing under native vegetation in a changing climate

Soil plays a critical role in the global carbon (C) cycle. However, climate change and associated factors, such as warming, precipitation change, elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂), and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, will affect soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks markedly - a decrease in SOC stocks is predicted to drive further planetary warming, although whether changes in climate and associated factors (including atmospheric N deposition) will cause a net increase in SOC or a net decrease is less certain. Using a subtropical soil, we have directly examined how changes over the last three decades are already impacting upon SOC stocks and soil total nitrogen (STN) in a Vertisol supporting native brigalow (Acacia harpophylla L.) vegetation. It was observed that SOC stocks increased under native vegetation by 5.85 Mg C ha^-1 (0.177 ± 0.059 Mg C ha^-1 y^-1) at a depth of 0-0.3 m over 33 years. This net increase in SOC stocks was not correlated with change in precipitation, which did not change during the study period. Net SOC stocks, however, were correlated with an increasing trend in mean annual temperatures, with an average increase of 0.89 °C. This occurred despite a likely co-occurrence of increased decomposition due to higher temperatures, presumably because the increase in the SOC was largely in the stable, mineral-associated fraction. The increases in CO₂ from 338 ppm_v to 395 ppm_v likely contributed to an increase in biomass, especially root biomass, resulting in the net increase in SOC stocks. Furthermore, STN stocks increased by 0.57 Mg N ha^-1 (0.0174 ± 0.0041 Mg N ha^-1 y^-1) at 0-0.3 m depth, due to increased atmospheric N deposition and potential N₂ fixation. Since SOC losses are often predicted in many regions due to global warming, these observations are relevant for sustainability of SOC stocks for productivity and climate models in semi-arid subtropical regions.

The Effect of Nitrogen Fertilization on Tree Growth, Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Leaching—A Modeling Study in a Steep Nitrogen Deposition Gradient in Sweden

Nitrogen (N) fertilization in forests has the potential to increase tree growth and carbon (C) sequestration, but it also means a risk of N leaching. Dynamic models can, if the important processes are well described, play an important role in assessing benefits and risks of nitrogen fertilization. The aim of this study was to test if the ForSAFE model is able to simulate correctly the effects of N fertilization when considering different levels of N availability in the forest. The model was applied for three sites in Sweden, representing low, medium and high nitrogen deposition. Simulations were performed for scenarios with and without fertilization. The effect of N fertilization on tree growth was largest at the low deposition site, whereas the effect on N leaching was more pronounced at the high deposition site. For soil organic carbon (SOC) the effects were generally small, but in the second forest rotation SOC was slightly higher after fertilization, especially at the low deposition site. The ForSAFE simulations largely confirm the N saturation theory which state that N will not be retained in the forest when the ecosystem is N saturated, and we conclude that the model can be a useful tool in assessing effects of N fertilization.

Canopy mitigates the effects of nitrogen deposition on soil carbon-related processes in a subtropical forest

The rapid increases in atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition have greatly affected the carbon (C) cycles of terrestrial ecosystems. Most studies concerning on the effects of N deposition have simulated N deposition by directly applying N to the understory and have therefore not accounted for the possibility of N absorption, retention, and transformation by the canopy. In this study, we compared the effects of understory addition of N (UN), canopy addition of N (CN) at 25 and 50 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1, and ambient addition of N (CK) on soil carbon-related processes in a subtropical forest. After seven years of addition, the contribution of new C from litter (F_new) was more than 2× greater with UN treatments than with CN treatments. UN treatments significantly increased the activity of β-1,4-glucosidase (BG) but reduced the activities of β-1,4-N-acetylglucosaminidase (NAG), polyphenol oxidase (PPO), and peroxidase (PER). CN treatments, in contrast, did not alter the activities of extracellular enzyme. Compared to CN, UN treatments significantly enhanced soil organic carbon (SOC) and mean weight diameter (MWD, represents soil aggregate stability). Differences in the responses of SOC and MWD to CN and UN treatments were positively correlated with F_new but negatively correlated with the activities of PPO and PER. The results imply that forest canopy mitigates the effects of atmospheric N inputs on SOC, and that conventional understory N addition might overestimate the positive effects of N deposition on forest soil C-related processes. We suggest that CN rather than UN should be used to simulate the effects of atmospheric N deposition on soil C dynamics in subtropical forests.

Chronic Atmospheric Reactive Nitrogen Deposition Suppresses Biological Nitrogen Fixation in Peatlands

Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) represents the natural pathway by which mosses meet their demands for bioavailable/reactive nitrogen (Nr) in peatlands. However, following intensification of nitrogen fertilizer and fossil fuel use, atmospheric Nr deposition has increased exposing peatlands to Nr loading often above the ecological threshold. As BNF is energy intensive, therefore, it is unclear whether BNF shuts down when Nr availability is no longer a rarity. We studied the response of BNF under a gradient of Nr deposition extending over decades in three peatlands in the U.K., and at a background deposition peatland in Sweden. Experimental nitrogen fertilization plots in the Swedish site were also evaluated for BNF activity. In situ BNF activity of peatlands receiving Nr deposition of 6, 17, and 27 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1 was not shut down but rather suppressed by 54, 69, and 74%, respectively, compared to the rates under background Nr deposition of ∼2 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1. These findings were corroborated by similar BNF suppression at the fertilization plots in Sweden. Therefore, contribution of BNF in peatlands exposed to chronic Nr deposition needs accounting when modeling peatland's nitrogen pools, given that nitrogen availability exerts a key control on the carbon capture of peatlands, globally.

Life Course Air Pollution Exposure and Cognitive Decline: Modelled Historical Air Pollution Data and the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936

BACKGROUND

Air pollution has been consistently linked with dementia and cognitive decline. However, it is unclear whether risk is accumulated through long-term exposure or whether there are sensitive/critical periods. A key barrier to clarifying this relationship is the dearth of historical air pollution data.

OBJECTIVE

To demonstrate the feasibility of modelling historical air pollution data and using them in epidemiologicalmodels.

METHODS

Using the EMEP4UK atmospheric chemistry transport model, we modelled historical fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations for the years 1935, 1950, 1970, 1980, and 1990 and combined these with contemporary modelled data from 2001 to estimate life course exposure in 572 participants in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 with lifetime residential history recorded. Linear regression and latent growth models were constructed using cognitive ability (IQ) measured by the Moray House Test at the ages of 11, 70, 76, and 79 years to explore the effects of historical air pollution exposure. Covariates included sex, IQ at age 11 years, social class, and smoking.

RESULTS

Higher air pollution modelled for 1935 (when participants would have been in utero) was associated with worse change in IQ from age 11-70 years (β = -0.006, SE = 0.002, p = 0.03) but not cognitive trajectories from age 70-79 years (p > 0.05). There was no support for other critical/sensitive periods of exposure or an accumulation of risk (all p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The life course paradigm is essential in understanding cognitive decline and this is the first study to examine life course air pollution exposure in relation to cognitive health.

Alkaline air: changing perspectives on nitrogen and air pollution in an ammonia-rich world

Ammonia and ammonium have received less attention than other forms of air pollution, with limited progress in controlling emissions at UK, European and global scales. By contrast, these compounds have been of significant past interest to science and society, the recollection of which can inform future strategies. Sal ammoniac (nūshādir, nao sha) is found to have been extremely valuable in long-distance trade (ca AD 600-1150) from Egypt and China, where 6-8 kg N could purchase a human life, while air pollution associated with nūshādir collection was attributed to this nitrogen form. Ammonia was one of the keys to alchemy-seen as an early experimental mesocosm to understand the world-and later became of interest as 'alkaline air' within the eighteenth century development of pneumatic chemistry. The same economic, chemical and environmental properties are found to make ammonia and ammonium of huge relevance today. Successful control of acidifying SO₂ and NO_x emissions leaves atmospheric NH₃ in excess in many areas, contributing to particulate matter (PM_2.5) formation, while leading to a new significance of alkaline air, with adverse impacts on natural ecosystems. Investigations of epiphytic lichens and bog ecosystems show how the alkalinity effect of NH₃ may explain its having three to five times the adverse effect of ammonium and nitrate, respectively. It is concluded that future air pollution policy should no longer neglect ammonia. Progress is likely to be mobilized by emphasizing the lost economic value of global N emissions ($200 billion yr^-1), as part of developing the circular economy for sustainable nitrogen management. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Air quality, past present and future'.

Legacy effects of nitrogen and phosphorus additions on vegetation and carbon stocks of upland heaths

Soil carbon (C) pools and plant community composition are regulated by nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability. Atmospheric N deposition impacts ecosystem C storage, but the direction of response varies between systems. Phosphorus limitation may constrain C storage response to N, hence P application to increase plant productivity and thus C sequestration has been suggested. We revisited a 23-yr-old field experiment where N and P had been applied to upland heath, a widespread habitat supporting large soil C stocks. At 10 yr after the last nutrient application we quantified long-term changes in vegetation composition and in soil and vegetation C and P stocks. Nitrogen addition, particularly when combined with P, strongly influenced vegetation composition, favouring grasses over Calluna vulgaris, and led to a reduction in vegetation C stocks. However, soil C stocks did not respond to nutrient treatments. We found 40% of the added P had accumulated in the soil. This study showed persistent effects of N and N + P on vegetation composition, whereas effects of P alone were small and showed recovery. We found no indication that P application could mitigate the effects of N on vegetation or increase C sequestration in this system.

Patterns and trends of topsoil carbon in the UK: Complex interactions of land use change, climate and pollution

The UK Countryside Survey (CS) is a national long-term survey of soils and vegetation that spans three decades (1978-2007). Past studies using CS data have identified clear contrasting trends in topsoil organic carbon (tSOC) concentrations (0-15 cm) related to differences between habitat types. Here we firstly examine changes in tSOC resulting from land use change, and secondly construct mixed models to describe the impact of indirect drivers where land use has been constant. Where it occurs, land use change is a strong driver of SOC change, with largest changes in tSOC for transitions involving SOC-rich soils in upland and bog systems. Afforestation did not always increase tSOC, and the effect of transitions involving woodland was dependent on the other vegetation type. The overall national spatial pattern of tSOC concentration where land use has been constant is most strongly related to vegetation type and topsoil pH, with contributions from climate variables, deposition and geology. Comparisons of models for tSOC across time periods suggest that declining SO₄ deposition has allowed recovery of topsoils from acidification, but that this has not resulted in the increased decomposition rates and loss of tSOC which might be expected. As a result, the relationship between pH and tSOC in UK topsoils has changed significantly between 1978 and 2007. The contributions of other indirect drivers in the models suggest negative relationships to seasonal temperature metrics and positive relationships to seasonal precipitation at the dry end of the scale. The results suggest that the CS approach of long-term collection of co-located vegetation and soil biophysical data provides essential tools both for identifying trends in tSOC at national and habitat levels, and for identifying areas of risk or areas with opportunities for managing topsoil SOC and vegetation change.

Simulating long-term carbon nitrogen and phosphorus biogeochemical cycling in agricultural environments

Understanding how agricultural practices alter biogeochemical cycles is vital for maintaining land productivity, food security, and other ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration. However, these are complex, highly coupled long-term processes that are difficult to observe or explore through empirical science alone. Models are required that capture the main anthropogenic disturbances, whilst operating across regions and long timescales, simulating both natural and agricultural environments, and shifts among these. Many biogeochemical models neglect agriculture or interactions between carbon and nutrient cycles, which is surprising given the scale of intervention in nitrogen and phosphorus cycles introduced by agriculture. This gap is addressed here, using a plant-soil model that simulates integrated soil carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus (CNP) cycling across natural, semi-natural and agricultural environments. The model is rigorously tested both spatially and temporally using data from long-term agricultural experiments across temperate environments. The model proved capable of reproducing the magnitude of and trends in soil nutrient stocks, and yield responses to nutrient addition. The model has potential to simulate anthropogenic effects on biogeochemical cycles across northern Europe, for long timescales (centuries) without site-specific calibration, using easily accessible input data. The results demonstrate that weatherable P from parent material has a considerable effect on modern pools of soil C and N, despite significant perturbation of nutrient cycling from agricultural practices, highlighting the need to integrate both geological and agricultural processes to understand effects of land-use change on food security, C storage and nutrient sustainability. The results suggest that an important process or source of P is currently missing in our understanding of agricultural biogeochemical cycles. The model could not explain how yields were sustained in plots with low P fertiliser addition. We suggest that plant access to organic P is a key uncertainty warranting further research, particularly given sustainability concerns surrounding rock sources of P fertiliser.

Climate warming disrupts mast seeding and its fitness benefits in European beech

Many plants benefit from synchronous year-to-year variation in seed production, called masting. Masting benefits plants because it increases the efficiency of pollination and satiates predators, which reduces seed loss. Here, using a 39-year-long dataset, we show that climate warming over recent decades has increased seed production of European beech but decreased the year-to-year variability of seed production and the reproductive synchrony among individuals. Consequently, the benefit that the plants gained from masting has declined. While climate warming was associated with increased reproductive effort, we demonstrate that less effective pollination and greater losses of seeds to predators offset any benefits to the plants. This shows that an apparently simple benefit of climate warming unravels because of complex ecological interactions. Our results indicate that in masting systems, the main beneficiaries of climate-driven increases in seed production are seed predators, not plants.

Zones of influence for soil organic matter dynamics: A conceptual framework for data and models

Soil organic matter (SOM) is an indicator of sustainable land management as stated in the global indicator framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG Indicator 15.3.1). Improved forecasting of future changes in SOM is needed to support the development of more sustainable land management under a changing climate. Current models fail to reproduce historical trends in SOM both within and during transition between ecosystems. More realistic spatio-temporal SOM dynamics require inclusion of the recent paradigm shift from SOM recalcitrance as an 'intrinsic property' to SOM persistence as an 'ecosystem interaction'. We present a soil profile, or pedon-explicit, ecosystem-scale framework for data and models of SOM distribution and dynamics which can better represent land use transitions. Ecosystem-scale drivers are integrated with pedon-scale processes in two zones of influence. In the upper vegetation zone, SOM is affected primarily by plant inputs (above- and belowground), climate, microbial activity and physical aggregation and is prone to destabilization. In the lower mineral matrix zone, SOM inputs from the vegetation zone are controlled primarily by mineral phase and chemical interactions, resulting in more favourable conditions for SOM persistence. Vegetation zone boundary conditions vary spatially at landscape scales (vegetation cover) and temporally at decadal scales (climate). Mineral matrix zone boundary conditions vary spatially at landscape scales (geology, topography) but change only slowly. The thicknesses of the two zones and their transport connectivity are dynamic and affected by plant cover, land use practices, climate and feedbacks from current SOM stock in each layer. Using this framework, we identify several areas where greater knowledge is needed to advance the emerging paradigm of SOM dynamics-improved representation of plant-derived carbon inputs, contributions of soil biota to SOM storage and effect of dynamic soil structure on SOM storage-and how this can be combined with robust and efficient soil monitoring.

Impacts of nitrogen deposition on carbon and nitrogen cycling in alpine Racomitrium heath in the UK and prospects for recovery

Deposition of reactive nitrogen (N) is a major threat to terrestrial ecosystems associated with impacts on ecosystem properties and functions including carbon (C) and nutrient stocks, soil water quality and nutrient retention. In the oceanic-alpine Racomitrium heath habitat, N deposition is associated with moss mat degradation and a shift from bryophyte to graminoid dominance. To investigate the effects of moss mat decline on C and N stocks and fluxes, we collected Racomitrium heath vegetation/soil cores from sites along a gradient of N deposition in the UK. Cores were maintained under controlled conditions and exposed to scenarios of current (8-40 kg N ha^-1 y^-1), reduced (8 kg N ha^-1 y^-1) and elevated (50 kg N ha^-1 y^-1) N deposition. Cores from high N deposition sites had smaller aboveground C and N stocks and, under current conditions, leached large amounts of inorganic N and had low soil water pH compared with low N deposition sites. With reduced N deposition there was evidence for rapid recovery of soil water quality in terms of reduced N leaching and small increases in pH. Under high N deposition, cores from low N deposition sites retained much of the applied N while those with a history of high N deposition leached large amounts of inorganic N. Carbon fluxes in soil water and net CO₂ fluxes varied according to core source site but were not affected by the N deposition scenarios. We conclude that C and N stocks and cycling in Racomitrium heath are strongly affected by long-term exposure to N deposition but that soil water quality may improve rapidly, if N deposition rates are reduced. The legacy of N deposition impacts on moss mat cover and vegetation composition however, mean that the ecosystem remains sensitive to future pulses in N input.

The greenhouse gas impacts of converting food production in England and Wales to organic methods

Agriculture is a major contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and must feature in efforts to reduce emissions. Organic farming might contribute to this through decreased use of farm inputs and increased soil carbon sequestration, but it might also exacerbate emissions through greater food production elsewhere to make up for lower organic yields. To date there has been no rigorous assessment of this potential at national scales. Here we assess the consequences for net GHG emissions of a 100% shift to organic food production in England and Wales using life-cycle assessment. We predict major shortfalls in production of most agricultural products against a conventional baseline. Direct GHG emissions are reduced with organic farming, but when increased overseas land use to compensate for shortfalls in domestic supply are factored in, net emissions are greater. Enhanced soil carbon sequestration could offset only a small part of the higher overseas emissions.

The greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of organic methods is poorly understood. Here, the authors assess the GHG impact of a 100% shift to organic food production in England and Wales and find that direct GHG emissions are reduced with organic farming, but when increased land use abroad to allow for production shortfalls is factored in, GHG emissions are elevated well-above the baseline.

What is the most ecologically-meaningful metric of nitrogen deposition?

Nitrogen (N) deposition poses a severe risk to global terrestrial ecosystems, and managing this threat is an important focus for air pollution science and policy. To understand and manage the impacts of N deposition, we need metrics which accurately reflect N deposition pressure on the environment, and are responsive to changes in both N deposition and its impacts over time. In the UK, the metric typically used is a measure of total N deposition over 1-3 years, despite evidence that N accumulates in many ecosystems and impacts from low-level exposure can take considerable time to develop. Improvements in N deposition modelling now allow the development of metrics which incorporate the long-term history of pollution, as well as current exposure. Here we test the potential of alternative N deposition metrics to explain vegetation compositional variability in British semi-natural habitats. We assembled 36 individual datasets representing 48,332 occurrence records in 5479 quadrats from 1683 sites, and used redundancy analyses to test the explanatory power of 33 alternative N metrics based on national pollutant deposition models. We find convincing evidence for N deposition impacts across datasets and habitats, even when accounting for other large-scale drivers of vegetation change. Metrics that incorporate long-term N deposition trajectories consistently explain greater compositional variance than 1-3 year N deposition. There is considerable variability in results across habitats and between similar metrics, but overall we propose that a thirty-year moving window of cumulative deposition is optimal to represent impacts on plant communities for application in science, policy and management.

Comparing soil inventory with modelling: Carbon balance in central European forest soils varies among forest types

Forest soils represent a large carbon pool and already small changes in this pool may have an important effect on the global carbon cycle. To predict the future development of the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool, well-validated models are needed. We applied the litter and soil carbon model Yasso15 to 1838 plots of the German national forest soil inventory (NFSI) for the period between 1985 and 2014 to enables a direct comparison to the NFSI measurements. In addition, to provide data for the German Greenhouse Gas Inventory, we simulated the development of SOC with Yasso15 applying a climate projection based on the RCP8.5 scenario. The initial model-calculated SOC stocks were adjusted to the measured ones in the NFSI. On average, there were no significant differences between the simulated SOC changes (0.25 ± 0.10 Mg C ha^-1 a^-1) and the NFSI data (0.39 ± 0.11 Mg C ha^-1 a^-1). Comparing regional soil-unit-specific aggregates of the SOC changes, the correlation between both methods was significant (r² = 0.49) although the NFSI values had a wider range and more negative values. In the majority of forest types, representing 75% of plots, both methods produced similar estimates of the SOC balance. Opposite trends were found in mountainous coniferous forests on acidic soils. These soils had lost carbon according to the NFSI (-0.89 ± 0.30 Mg C ha^-1 a^-1) whereas they had gained it according to Yasso15 (0.21 ± 0.10 Mg C ha^-1 a^-1). In oligotrophic pine forests, the NFSI indicated high SOC gains (1.36 ± 0.17 Mg C ha^-1 a^-1) and Yasso15 much smaller (0.29 ± 0.10 Mg C ha^-1 a^-1). According to our results, German forest soils are a large carbon sink. The application of the Yasso15 model supports the results of the NFSI. The sink strength differs between forest types possibly because of differences in organic matter stabilisation.

Impact of two centuries of intensive agriculture on soil carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in the UK

This paper describes an agricultural model (Roth-CNP) that estimates carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) pools, pool changes, their balance and the nutrient fluxes exported from arable and grassland systems in the UK during 1800-2010. The Roth-CNP model was developed as part of an Integrated Model (IM) to simulate C, N and P cycling for the whole of UK, by loosely coupling terrestrial, hydrological and hydro-chemical models. The model was calibrated and tested using long term experiment (LTE) data from Broadbalk (1843) and Park Grass (1856) at Rothamsted. We estimated C, N and P balance and their fluxes exported from arable and grassland systems on a 5km×5km grid across the whole of UK by using the area of arable of crops and livestock numbers in each grid and their management. The model estimated crop and grass yields, soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and nutrient fluxes in the form of NH₄-N, NO₃-N and PO₄-P. The simulated crop yields were compared to that reported by national agricultural statistics for the historical to the current period. Overall, arable land in the UK have lost SOC by -0.18, -0.25 and -0.08MgCha^-1y^-1 whereas land under improved grassland SOC stock has increased by 0.20, 0.47 and 0.24MgCha^-1y^-1 during 1800-1950, 1950-1970 and 1970-2010 simulated in this study. Simulated N loss (by leaching, runoff, soil erosion and denitrification) increased both under arable (-15, -18 and -53kgNha^-1y^-1) and grass (-18, -22 and -36kgNha^-1y^-1) during different time periods. Simulated P surplus increased from 2.6, 10.8 and 18.1kgPha^-1y^-1 under arable and 2.8, 11.3 and 3.6kgPha^-1y^-1 under grass lands 1800-1950, 1950-1970 and 1970-2010.