1
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Tárraga JM, Sevillano-Marco E, Muñoz-Marí J, Piles M, Sitokonstantinou V, Ronco M, Miranda MT, Cerdà J, Camps-Valls G. Causal discovery reveals complex patterns of drought-induced displacement. iScience 2024; 27:110628. [PMID: 39262799 PMCID: PMC11387590 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.110628] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/20/2024] [Revised: 06/15/2024] [Accepted: 07/29/2024] [Indexed: 09/13/2024] Open
Abstract
The increasing frequency and severity of droughts present a significant risk to vulnerable regions of the globe, potentially leading to substantial human displacement in extreme situations. Drought-induced displacement is a complex and multifaceted issue that can perpetuate cycles of poverty, exacerbate food and water scarcity, and reinforce socio-economic inequalities. However, our understanding of human mobility in drought scenarios is currently limited, inhibiting accurate predictions and effective policy responses. Drought-induced displacement is driven by numerous factors and identifying its key drivers, causal-effect lags, and consequential effects is often challenging, typically relying on mechanistic models and qualitative assumptions. This paper presents a novel, data-driven methodology, grounded in causal discovery, to retrieve the drivers of drought-induced displacement within Somalia from 2016 to 2023. Our model exposes the intertwined vulnerabilities and the leading times that connect drought impacts, water and food security systems along with episodes of violent conflict, emphasizing that causal mechanisms change across districts. These findings pave the way for the development of algorithms with the ability to learn from human mobility data, enhancing anticipatory action, policy formulation, and humanitarian aid.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jose María Tárraga
- Image Processing Laboratory, Universitat de València, 46980 Paterna, Spain
| | | | - Jordi Muñoz-Marí
- Image Processing Laboratory, Universitat de València, 46980 Paterna, Spain
| | - María Piles
- Image Processing Laboratory, Universitat de València, 46980 Paterna, Spain
| | | | - Michele Ronco
- Image Processing Laboratory, Universitat de València, 46980 Paterna, Spain
| | | | - Jordi Cerdà
- Image Processing Laboratory, Universitat de València, 46980 Paterna, Spain
| | - Gustau Camps-Valls
- Image Processing Laboratory, Universitat de València, 46980 Paterna, Spain
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2
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Gumus V, El Moçayd N, Seker M, Seaid M. Future projection of droughts in Morocco and potential impact on agriculture. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2024; 367:122019. [PMID: 39106801 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.122019] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2024] [Revised: 07/16/2024] [Accepted: 07/26/2024] [Indexed: 08/09/2024]
Abstract
The present study evaluates the future drought hazard in Morocco using a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach. First, the artificial neural network-based MME is constructed using the General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Climate Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) which are most successful in representing the historical temperature and precipitation values. Next, the future changes in the precipitation, Potential EvapoTranspiration (PET) calculated using temperatures data, aridity index, and drought indices calculated via the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values were projected for the historical period 1980-2014, near future 2025-2050, mid future 2051-2075, and far future 2076-2100. The obtained results indicate that there will be a decrease in values of the precipitation and an increase in values of the PET, leading to an increase in aridity risk for Morocco. The future projections using the SPEI results show that the average index values will mostly be in the drought zone, indicating that the drought severity will increase. The spatial analysis of SPEI values in different regions of Morocco demonstrates that the northern part of the country has relatively more drought occurrences, and drought severity tends to increase with each passing period. The study also reveals that drought severity will significantly increase after 2050 in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5) scenario. The research concludes that the increase in drought severity will significantly impact Morocco's water resources, agriculture and food security among others.
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Affiliation(s)
- Veysel Gumus
- Civil Engineering Department, Harran University, Sanliurfa, Turkey; Department of Engineering, University of Durham, South Road, DH1 3LE, United Kingdom.
| | - Nabil El Moçayd
- College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, University Mohammed VI Polytechnic, Benguerir, Morocco
| | - Mehmet Seker
- Civil Engineering Department, Harran University, Sanliurfa, Turkey
| | - Mohammed Seaid
- Department of Engineering, University of Durham, South Road, DH1 3LE, United Kingdom
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3
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Youssef YM, Gemail KS, Atia HM, Mahdy M. Insight into land cover dynamics and water challenges under anthropogenic and climatic changes in the eastern Nile Delta: Inference from remote sensing and GIS data. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 913:169690. [PMID: 38163604 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.169690] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/27/2023] [Revised: 12/16/2023] [Accepted: 12/24/2023] [Indexed: 01/03/2024]
Abstract
The destabilization of delta's worldwide due to climate change and human activities presents challenges in meeting the growing demands for freshwater and food. The Nile Delta in Egypt is a prime example of a vulnerable region facing various stressors. In order to preserve land and water resources, it is crucial to monitor the spatial and temporal changes in Land Use/Land Cover (LULC), shoreline, and Terrestrial Water Storage (TWS) in these vulnerable regions This study comprehensively investigates the dynamic changes in LULC and their associated water and soil responses in the Eastern Nile Delta under these combined impacts. To achieve this goal, a combination of remote sensing techniques utilizing Landsat (5, 8, and 9), and GRACE datasets, along with field observations and Geographic Information System (GIS) tools, was employed. Accordingly, shoreline changes show coastal erosion rates ranging from 5.28 to 34.92 m/year due to climate change-induced SLR, with continued inland movement predicted for the next 20 years. Moreover, the dynamic changes in urbanization and alterations in agricultural cover have considerable penalties for water demand. Analysis of GRACE data indicates a notable reduction in average TWS by 77.89 mm between 2002 and 2017, with an annual rate, estimated at -5.821 mm/year. Soil sampling in highly vulnerable areas confirms agricultural degradation attributed to elevated salinity levels, with EC values ranging from 3.60 to 190 ds/m. These finds provide valuable insights for stakeholders and policymakers, to make reliable strategies regarding water allocation, land use regulations, and climate change adaptation in the worldwide vulnerable deltas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Youssef M Youssef
- Department of Geological and Geophysical Engineering, Faculty of Petroleum and Mining Engineering, Suez University, Suez 43518, Egypt.
| | - Khaled S Gemail
- Environmental Geophysics Lab (ZEGL), Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, Zagazig 44519, Egypt.
| | - Hafsa M Atia
- Geology Department, Faculty of Science, New Mansoura University, New Mansoura 35712, Egypt.
| | - Mohamed Mahdy
- Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts, Zagazig University, Zagazig 44519, Egypt.
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4
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Tayebi S, Addison SM, Haque U. Sudan conflicts (2012-2023): how does it prolong and intensify hunger? Perspect Public Health 2024; 144:14-17. [PMID: 38156477 DOI: 10.1177/17579139231202436] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/30/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- S Tayebi
- Rutgers Global Health Institute, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
- Department of Geography, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, 54 Joyce Kilmer Avenue, Piscataway, New Jersey 08854-8045, USA
| | - S M Addison
- School of Social Work, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - U Haque
- Rutgers Global Health Institute, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
- Department of Geography, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
- Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA
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5
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Epule TE, Chehbouni A, Dhiba D, Molua EL. A regional stocktake of maize yield vulnerability to droughts in the Horn of Africa. ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 2023; 196:76. [PMID: 38135861 DOI: 10.1007/s10661-023-12229-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/27/2022] [Accepted: 12/07/2023] [Indexed: 12/24/2023]
Abstract
Climate projections in sub-Saharan Africa predict increased frequency of droughts with parallel impacts on crop yield. The Horn of Africa is among the most vulnerable regions in Africa to these changes because agriculture in general and maize production in particularly is highly climate driven, and rain-fed. Current research approaches have mostly focused on the climatic and biophysical drivers of crop yield without including the socio-economic drivers of crop yield. This study fills this gap by investigating the vulnerability of maize yield in the Horn of Africa to climate and socio-economic indicators. The hypothesis is that there is an inverse relationship between vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The vulnerability index is a composite index that integrates sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity sub-indices. Maize yield data to compute the sensitivity index were collected from FAOSTAT, precipitation data to compute the exposure index were collected from the Climate Research Unit (CRU), and the data for the proxies of adaptive capacity were collected from the readiness index database on figshare. From the results, Somalia records the highest vulnerability index of 1.15, followed by Ethiopia with a vulnerability index of 0.61. Kenya records the lowest vulnerability index of 0.33. Also, there is a positive relationship between the vulnerability, sensitivity, and the exposure indices and an inverse relationship between the vulnerability index and the adaptive capacity index. The high vulnerability index recorded in Somalia is accentuated by a low adaptive capacity index of 0.44 that is anchored on low literacy and high poverty rates. As Somalia records the lowest adaptive capacity index of 0.44, Ethiopia and Kenya record 0.91 and 0.99 respectively. This study has shown that to better understand vulnerability, a shift from the old paradigm that focuses on the climatic variables to integrating socio-economic variables or proxies of adaptive capacity which enhances our understanding of vulnerability. Though leveraging the benefits of climatic and non-climatic variables is important, the challenge so far has been on how to integrate these in the same model; a challenge this work has succinctly overcome by integrating adaptive capacity in the vulnerability equation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Terence Epule Epule
- Unité de Recherche Et Développement en Agriculture Et Agroalimentaire de L'Abitibi-Témiscamingue (URDAAT), Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), 79Notre-Dame-du-Nord, Rue Côté, QC, J0Z 3B0, Canada.
- International Water Research Institute, Mohammed 6 Polytechnic University, Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, 43150, Ben Guerir, Morocco.
| | - Abdelghani Chehbouni
- International Water Research Institute, Mohammed 6 Polytechnic University, Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, 43150, Ben Guerir, Morocco
| | - Driss Dhiba
- International Water Research Institute, Mohammed 6 Polytechnic University, Lot 660, Hay Moulay Rachid, 43150, Ben Guerir, Morocco
| | - Ernest L Molua
- Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Faculty of Agriculture and Veterinary Medicine, University of Buea, P.O Box 63, Buea, Cameroon
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6
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Yang Z, Gao X, Lei J. Aeolian disaster risk evaluation in the African Sahel. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2023; 899:165462. [PMID: 37451450 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165462] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/11/2023] [Revised: 06/24/2023] [Accepted: 07/09/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023]
Abstract
The Sahel is facing a serious environmental crisis due to aeolian disaster that has seriously affected the local development and survival of residents. Thus, evaluating the aeolian disaster risk levels and their variation in the Sahel is important. This study established an optimal model by evaluating the applicability of different models in the aeolian disaster risk determination in the Sahel. Using this model, the spatiotemporal changes in the risk subsystem of aeolian disaster (hazard, sensitivity, vulnerability, and restorability) and the aeolian disaster risk in the Sahel from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed. Based on this analysis, the impact of climate change and human activities on the aeolian disaster risk in the Sahel was evaluated. Results revealed that the variable fuzzy recognition (VFR) based on the aeolian disaster risk index (ADRI) model had the highest accuracy, reaching 89.72 %. The middle of the Sahel, located in the desert-grassland transition zone, exhibited a high hazard, sensitivity, and vulnerability, rendering it highly susceptible to aeolian disaster. The proportion of areas with very low and very high aeolian disaster risk levels decreased from 2000 to 2020, while those with low and high levels increased, and the change in moderate risk level areas remained relatively stable. Areas of low, moderate, and high risk are more sensitive to climate change and human activities and are subjected to greater pressure for change. Human activities were the main factor for the change of ADRI in the Sahel, accounting for 69.74 and 58.19 % of the increased and decreased areas of ADRI, respectively. This study evaluated the level of aeolian disaster risk in the Sahel and identified the main driving factors, providing a reference for Sahel countries to better implement the Green Great Wall (GGW) program in Africa, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of aeolian disaster.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zuowei Yang
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
| | - Xin Gao
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
| | - Jiaqiang Lei
- State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 818 South Beijing Road, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
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7
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Soon-Sinclair JM, Imathiu S, Obadina AO, Dongho Dongmo FF, Kamgain ADT, Moholisa E, Saba CKS, Walekhwa AW, Hunga H, Kussaga J. How Worried Are You about Food Fraud? A Preliminary Multi-Country Study among Consumers in Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries. Foods 2023; 12:3627. [PMID: 37835280 PMCID: PMC10572961 DOI: 10.3390/foods12193627] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/27/2023] [Revised: 08/18/2023] [Accepted: 09/28/2023] [Indexed: 10/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Food fraud is an old, recurring, and global threat to public health. It poses a serious threat to food security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Despite the prevalence of food fraud in SSA, little is known about how food fraud is viewed by consumers. This study aims to provide an overview of consumers' concerns about food fraud in SSA. A multi-country survey was conducted in October 2022-31 January 2023, and 838 valid responses were returned. To reduce the large and correlated dataset, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used. Five components were derived from PCA: (i) Staple foods; (ii) Premium food and drink products; (iii) Trust in reliable sources; (iv) Trust in less reliable sources; and (v) Trust in food vendors. The findings revealed Ghanaian (mean rank = 509.47) and Nigerian (mean rank = 454.82) consumers tended to score higher on the measure of food fraud concern suggesting that they were less confident in the safety and quality of the food they consume. Demographic characteristics including age, number of children, personal and family experience of food fraud and PCA components such as 'Staple foods', 'Trust in reliable sources', and 'Trust in food vendors' significantly predicted the model. This is the first preliminary study to provide empirical findings on consumers' concerns about food fraud in SSA. Practical and policy recommendations for the region are suggested. This includes (i) modelling the AfriFoodinTegrity in West Africa across other major regions such as Central, East, and Southern Africa; (ii) establish a regional sub-Saharan Africa Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (SSA-RASFF) platform; and (iii) food safety and food fraud reports could be incorporated into SSA-RASFF portal for information sharing.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jan Mei Soon-Sinclair
- Faculty of Allied-Health and Wellbeing, University of Central Lancashire, Preston PRI 2HE, UK
| | - Samuel Imathiu
- Department of Food Science and Technology, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology, Nairobi 00200, Kenya;
| | - Adewale Olusegun Obadina
- Department of Food Science and Technology, Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta P.M.B 2240, Nigeria;
- Department of Biotechnology and Food Technology, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg 2092, South Africa
| | | | - Alex Dimitri Tchuenchieu Kamgain
- Institute of Medical Research and Medicinal Plants Studies, Yaoundé 13033, Cameroon;
- Food Evolution Research Laboratory, School of Tourism and Hospitality, University of Johannesburg, Johannesburg 2092, South Africa
| | - Ennet Moholisa
- Agricultural Research Council-Animal Production Institute, Irene 0062, South Africa;
| | - Courage Kosi Setsoafia Saba
- Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Biosciences, University for Development Studies, Tamale P.O. Box TL 1882, Ghana;
| | - Abel Wilson Walekhwa
- Infectious Diseases Epidemiology and Modelling Unit, Makerere University, Kampala P.O. Box 22418, Uganda;
| | - Henry Hunga
- Department of Land Resources Conservation, Ministry of Agriculture, Lilongwe P.O. Box 30291, Malawi;
| | - Jamal Kussaga
- Department of Food Science and Agroprocessing, School of Engineering and Technology, College of Agriculture, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3000, Tanzania;
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8
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Neik TX, Siddique KHM, Mayes S, Edwards D, Batley J, Mabhaudhi T, Song BK, Massawe F. Diversifying agrifood systems to ensure global food security following the Russia–Ukraine crisis. FRONTIERS IN SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYSTEMS 2023. [DOI: 10.3389/fsufs.2023.1124640] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/17/2023] Open
Abstract
The recent Russia–Ukraine conflict has raised significant concerns about global food security, leaving many countries with restricted access to imported staple food crops, particularly wheat and sunflower oil, sending food prices soaring with other adverse consequences in the food supply chain. This detrimental effect is particularly prominent for low-income countries relying on grain imports, with record-high food prices and inflation affecting their livelihoods. This review discusses the role of Russia and Ukraine in the global food system and the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on food security. It also highlights how diversifying four areas of agrifood systems—markets, production, crops, and technology can contribute to achieving food supply chain resilience for future food security and sustainability.
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Bhavnani R, Schlager N, Donnay K, Reul M, Schenker L, Stauffer M, Patel T. Household behavior and vulnerability to acute malnutrition in Kenya. HUMANITIES & SOCIAL SCIENCES COMMUNICATIONS 2023; 10:63. [PMID: 36811115 PMCID: PMC9936478 DOI: 10.1057/s41599-023-01547-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/04/2021] [Accepted: 01/31/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
Anticipating those most at-risk of being acutely malnourished significantly shapes decisions that pertain to resource allocation and intervention in times of food crises. Yet, the assumption that household behavior in times of crisis is homogeneous-that households share the same capacity to adapt to external shocks-ostensibly prevails. This assumption fails to explain why, in a given geographical context, some households remain more vulnerable to acute malnutrition relative to others, and why a given risk factor may have a differential effect across households? In an effort to explore how variation in household behavior influences vulnerability to malnutrition, we use a unique household dataset that spans 23 Kenyan counties from 2016 to 2020 to seed, calibrate, and validate an evidence-driven computational model. We use the model to conduct a series of counterfactual experiments on the relationship between household adaptive capacity and vulnerability to acute malnutrition. Our findings suggest that households are differently impacted by given risk factors, with the most vulnerable households typically being the least adaptive. These findings further underscore the salience of household adaptive capacity, in particular, that adaption is less effective for economic vis-à-vis climate shocks. By making explicit the link between patterns of household behavior and vulnerability in the short- to medium-term, we underscore the need for famine early warning to better account for variation in household-level behavior.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | - Mirko Reul
- University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland
| | | | - Maxime Stauffer
- Simon Institute for Longterm Governance, Geneva, Switzerland
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10
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Hassan M, Saif K, Ijaz MS, Sarfraz Z, Sarfraz A, Robles-Velasco K, Cherrez-Ojeda I. Mean Temperature and Drought Projections in Central Africa: A Population-Based Study of Food Insecurity, Childhood Malnutrition and Mortality, and Infectious Disease. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2023; 20:2697. [PMID: 36768062 PMCID: PMC9915533 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph20032697] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/15/2022] [Revised: 01/24/2023] [Accepted: 01/25/2023] [Indexed: 06/18/2023]
Abstract
The Central African Region is an agricultural and fishing-based economy, with 40% of the population living in rural communities. The negative impacts of climate change have caused economic/health-related adverse impacts and food insecurity. This original article aims to research four key themes: (i) acute food insecurity (AFI); (ii) childhood malnutrition and mortality; (iii) infectious disease burden; and (iv) drought and mean temperature projections throughout the twenty-first century. Food insecurity was mapped in Central Africa based on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) for AFI. The global hunger index (GHI) was presented along with the proportion of children with undernourishment, stunting, wasting, and mortality. Data for infectious disease burden was computed by assessing the adjusted rate of change (AROC) of mortality due to diarrhea among children and the burden of death rates due to pneumonia across all age groups. Finally, the mean drought index was computed through the year 2100. This population-based study identifies high levels of hunger across a majority of the countries, with the mean drought index suggesting extreme ends of wet and dry days and an overall rise of 1-3 °C. This study is a source of evidence for stakeholders, policymakers, and the population residing in Central Africa.
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Affiliation(s)
- Munum Hassan
- Department of Research, Akhtar Saeed Medical College, University of Health Sciences, Lahore 54000, Pakistan
| | - Kinza Saif
- Department of Research, Wah Medical College, University of Health Sciences, Wah Cantt 47000, Pakistan
| | - Muhammad Saad Ijaz
- Department of Research, Rawalpindi Medical University, Rawalpindi 46000, Pakistan
| | - Zouina Sarfraz
- Department of Research and Publications, Fatima Jinnah Medical University, Lahore 54000, Pakistan
| | - Azza Sarfraz
- Department of Pediatrics and Child Health, The Aga Khan University, Karachi 74800, Pakistan
| | - Karla Robles-Velasco
- Department of Allergy and Pulmonology, Universidad Espíritu Santo, Samborondón 092301, Ecuador
| | - Ivan Cherrez-Ojeda
- Department of Allergy and Pulmonology, Universidad Espíritu Santo, Samborondón 092301, Ecuador
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11
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Mehrabi Z, Delzeit R, Ignaciuk A, Levers C, Braich G, Bajaj K, Amo-Aidoo A, Anderson W, Balgah RA, Benton TG, Chari MM, Ellis EC, Gahi NZ, Gaupp F, Garibaldi LA, Gerber JS, Godde CM, Grass I, Heimann T, Hirons M, Hoogenboom G, Jain M, James D, Makowski D, Masamha B, Meng S, Monprapussorn S, Müller D, Nelson A, Newlands NK, Noack F, Oronje M, Raymond C, Reichstein M, Rieseberg LH, Rodriguez-Llanes JM, Rosenstock T, Rowhani P, Sarhadi A, Seppelt R, Sidhu BS, Snapp S, Soma T, Sparks AH, Teh L, Tigchelaar M, Vogel MM, West PC, Wittman H, You L. Research priorities for global food security under extreme events. ONE EARTH (CAMBRIDGE, MASS.) 2022; 5:756-766. [PMID: 35898653 PMCID: PMC9307291 DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.008] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2021] [Revised: 02/03/2022] [Accepted: 06/20/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Extreme events, such as those caused by climate change, economic or geopolitical shocks, and pest or disease epidemics, threaten global food security. The complexity of causation, as well as the myriad ways that an event, or a sequence of events, creates cascading and systemic impacts, poses significant challenges to food systems research and policy alike. To identify priority food security risks and research opportunities, we asked experts from a range of fields and geographies to describe key threats to global food security over the next two decades and to suggest key research questions and gaps on this topic. Here, we present a prioritization of threats to global food security from extreme events, as well as emerging research questions that highlight the conceptual and practical challenges that exist in designing, adopting, and governing resilient food systems. We hope that these findings help in directing research funding and resources toward food system transformations needed to help society tackle major food system risks and food insecurity under extreme events.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zia Mehrabi
- Department of Environmental Studies, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
- Mortenson Center in Global Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
| | | | - Adriana Ignaciuk
- Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy
| | - Christian Levers
- Department of Environmental Geography, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Ginni Braich
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Kushank Bajaj
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Araba Amo-Aidoo
- Kassel University, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Kassel University, 37213 Witzenhausen, Germany
- Kumasi Technical University, Department of Automotive and Agricultural Mechanization, P.O. Box 854, Kumasi, Ghana
| | - Weston Anderson
- Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA
- International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
| | - Roland A. Balgah
- College of Technology, The University of Bamenda, Bamenda, Cameroon
- Higher Institute of Agriculture and Rural Development, Bamenda University of Science and Technology – BUST, Bamenda, Cameroon
| | - Tim G. Benton
- Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House, 10 St James Sq, London SW1Y 4LE, UK
| | - Martin M. Chari
- Risk & Vulnerability Science Centre, Faculty of Science & Agriculture, University of Fort Hare, Alice, South Africa
| | - Erle C. Ellis
- Department of Geography & Environmental Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County, 1000 Hilltop Circle, Baltimore, MD 21250, USA
| | | | - Franziska Gaupp
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
| | - Lucas A. Garibaldi
- Universidad Nacional de Río Negro, Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural, Río Negro, Argentina
- Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural, Río Negro, Argentina
| | - James S. Gerber
- Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
| | - Cecile M. Godde
- Agriculture and Food Business Unit, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, St Lucia, QLD, Australia
| | - Ingo Grass
- Ecology of Tropical Agricultural Systems, Institute of Agricultural Sciences in the Tropics, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany
| | - Tobias Heimann
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Kiel, Germany
| | - Mark Hirons
- Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA
| | - Meha Jain
- School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - Dana James
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - David Makowski
- UMR MIA 518, Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, AgroParisTech, Paris, France
| | - Blessing Masamha
- Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), Africa Institute of South Africa (AISA), 134 Pretorius Street, Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa
| | - Sisi Meng
- Keough School of Global Affairs, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, USA
| | - Sathaporn Monprapussorn
- Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Srinakharinwirot University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Daniel Müller
- Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Theodor-Lieser-Str. 2, 06120 Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Andrew Nelson
- Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, Enschede, the Netherlands
| | - Nathaniel K. Newlands
- Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Science and Technology Branch, Summerland Research and Development Centre, Summerland, BC, Canada
| | - Frederik Noack
- Food and Resource Economics Group, the University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - MaryLucy Oronje
- Centre for Agriculture and Biosciences International (CABI), 673 Canary Bird, Limuru Road, Muthaiga, Nairobi, Kenya
| | - Colin Raymond
- Jet Propulsion Laboratory/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
| | | | - Loren H. Rieseberg
- Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | | | - Todd Rosenstock
- The Alliance of Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Rome, Italy
| | - Pedram Rowhani
- Department of Geography, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK
| | - Ali Sarhadi
- Lorenz Center, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
| | - Ralf Seppelt
- Helmholtz Institute for Environmental Research (UFZ), Leipzig, Germany
- Institute of Geoscience and Geography, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Halle (Saale), Germany
| | - Balsher S. Sidhu
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Sieglinde Snapp
- Department of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences, Center for Global Change and Earth Observations, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA
| | - Tammara Soma
- School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada
| | - Adam H. Sparks
- Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development, Perth, WA 6000, Australia
- University of Southern Queensland, Centre for Crop Health, Toowoomba, QLD 4350, Australia
| | - Louise Teh
- Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | | | - Martha M. Vogel
- Man and the Biosphere Programme, Division of Ecological and Earth Sciences, Natural Sciences Sector, UNESCO, Paris, France
| | - Paul C. West
- Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
- Project Drawdown, 3450 Sacramento Street, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Hannah Wittman
- Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
| | - Liangzhi You
- International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA
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12
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Evaluation of Food Security Based on Remote Sensing Data—Taking Egypt as an Example. REMOTE SENSING 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/rs14122876] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Egypt, a country with a harsh natural environment and rapid population growth, is facing difficulty in ensuring its national food security. A novel model developed for assessing food security in Egypt, which applies remote sensing techniques, is presented. By extracting the gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) mean texture features from Sentinel-1 and Landsat-7 images, the arable land used to grow grain crops was first classified and extracted using a support vector machine. In terms of the classified results, meteorological data, and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) model was adopted to compute the annual net primary production (NPP). Then, the NPP yield conversion formula was used to forecast the annual grain yield. Finally, a method for evaluating food security, which involves four dimensions, i.e., quantity security, economic security, quality security, and resource security, was established to evaluate food security in Egypt in 2010, 2015, and 2020. Based on the proposed model, a classification accuracy of the crop distribution map, which is above 82%, can be achieved. Moreover, the reliability of yield estimation is verified compared to the result estimated using statistics data provided by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Our evaluation results show that food security in Egypt is declining, the quantity and quality security show large fluctuations, and economic and resource security are relatively stable. This model can satisfy the requirements for estimating grain yield at a wide scale and evaluating food security on a national level. It can be used to provide useful suggestions for governments regarding improving food security.
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13
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Papa F, Crétaux JF, Grippa M, Robert E, Trigg M, Tshimanga RM, Kitambo B, Paris A, Carr A, Fleischmann AS, de Fleury M, Gbetkom PG, Calmettes B, Calmant S. Water Resources in Africa under Global Change: Monitoring Surface Waters from Space. SURVEYS IN GEOPHYSICS 2022; 44:43-93. [PMID: 35462853 PMCID: PMC9019293 DOI: 10.1007/s10712-022-09700-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/28/2021] [Accepted: 03/05/2022] [Indexed: 05/04/2023]
Abstract
Abstract The African continent hosts some of the largest freshwater systems worldwide, characterized by a large distribution and variability of surface waters that play a key role in the water, energy and carbon cycles and are of major importance to the global climate and water resources. Freshwater availability in Africa has now become of major concern under the combined effect of climate change, environmental alterations and anthropogenic pressure. However, the hydrology of the African river basins remains one of the least studied worldwide and a better monitoring and understanding of the hydrological processes across the continent become fundamental. Earth Observation, that offers a cost-effective means for monitoring the terrestrial water cycle, plays a major role in supporting surface hydrology investigations. Remote sensing advances are therefore a game changer to develop comprehensive observing systems to monitor Africa's land water and manage its water resources. Here, we review the achievements of more than three decades of advances using remote sensing to study surface waters in Africa, highlighting the current benefits and difficulties. We show how the availability of a large number of sensors and observations, coupled with models, offers new possibilities to monitor a continent with scarce gauged stations. In the context of upcoming satellite missions dedicated to surface hydrology, such as the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), we discuss future opportunities and how the use of remote sensing could benefit scientific and societal applications, such as water resource management, flood risk prevention and environment monitoring under current global change. Article Highlights The hydrology of African surface water is of global importance, yet it remains poorly monitored and understoodComprehensive review of remote sensing and modeling advances to monitor Africa's surface water and water resourcesFuture opportunities with upcoming satellite missions and to translate scientific advances into societal applications.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fabrice Papa
- LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, IRD, CNES, CNRS, UPS, 31400 Toulouse, France
- Institute of Geosciences, Universidade de Brasília (UnB), 70910-900 Brasília, Brazil
| | | | - Manuela Grippa
- GET, Université de Toulouse, IRD, CNES, CNRS, UPS, 31400 Toulouse, France
| | - Elodie Robert
- LETG, CNRS, Université de Nantes, 44312 Nantes, France
| | - Mark Trigg
- School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9DY United Kingdom
| | - Raphael M. Tshimanga
- Congo Basin Water Resources Research Center (CRREBaC) and Department of Natural Resources Management, University of Kinshasa (UNIKIN), Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Benjamin Kitambo
- LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, IRD, CNES, CNRS, UPS, 31400 Toulouse, France
- Congo Basin Water Resources Research Center (CRREBaC) and Department of Natural Resources Management, University of Kinshasa (UNIKIN), Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo
- Department of Geology, University of Lubumbashi (UNILU), Route Kasapa, Lubumbashi, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Adrien Paris
- LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, IRD, CNES, CNRS, UPS, 31400 Toulouse, France
- Hydro Matters, 31460 Le Faget, France
| | - Andrew Carr
- School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9DY United Kingdom
| | - Ayan Santos Fleischmann
- Hydraulic Research Institute (IPH), Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS), 91501-970 Porto Alegre, Brazil
- Instituto de Desenvolvimento Sustentável Mamirauá, 69553-225 Tefé, AM Brazil
| | - Mathilde de Fleury
- GET, Université de Toulouse, IRD, CNES, CNRS, UPS, 31400 Toulouse, France
| | | | - Beatriz Calmettes
- Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS), 31520 Ramonville Saint-Agne, France
| | - Stephane Calmant
- LEGOS, Université de Toulouse, IRD, CNES, CNRS, UPS, 31400 Toulouse, France
- Institute de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Cayenne IRD Center, 97323 French Guiana, France
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14
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Trivellone V, Hoberg EP, Boeger WA, Brooks DR. Food security and emerging infectious disease: risk assessment and risk management. ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE 2022; 9:211687. [PMID: 35223062 PMCID: PMC8847898 DOI: 10.1098/rsos.211687] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2021] [Accepted: 01/20/2022] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Climate change, emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) and food security create a dangerous nexus. Habitat interfaces, assumed to be efficient buffers, are being disrupted by human activities which in turn accelerate the movement of pathogens. EIDs threaten directly and indirectly availability and access to nutritious food, affecting global security and human health. In the next 70 years, food-secure and food-insecure countries will face EIDs driving increasingly unsustainable costs of production, predicted to exceed national and global gross domestic products. Our modern challenge is to transform this business as usual and embrace an alternative vision of the biosphere formalized in the Stockholm paradigm (SP). First, a pathogen-centric focus shifts our vision of risk space, determining how pathogens circulate in realized and potential fitness space. Risk space and pathogen exchange are always heightened at habitat interfaces. Second, apply the document-assess-monitor-act (DAMA) protocol developing strategic data for EID risk, to be translated, synthesized and broadcast as actionable information. Risk management is realized through targeted interventions focused around information exchanged among a community of scientists, policy practitioners of food and public health security and local populations. Ultimately, SP and DAMA protect human rights, supporting food security, access to nutritious food, health interventions and environmental integrity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Valeria Trivellone
- Illinois Natural History Survey, Prairie Research Institute, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, 1816 South Oak Street, Champaign, IL 61820, USA
| | - Eric P. Hoberg
- Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Wisconsin-Madison, WI 53716, USA
- Museum of Southwestern Biology, Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA
| | - Walter A. Boeger
- Biological Interactions, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Cx Postal 19073, Curitiba, Brazil
| | - Daniel R. Brooks
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto (emeritus), Toronto, ON, Canada
- Harold W. Manter Laboratory of Parasitology, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, NE 68588-0514, USA
- Institute for Evolution, Centre for Ecological Research, Karolina ut 29, Budapest, Hungary H-1113
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15
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Protective Pathways: Connecting Environmental and Human Security at Local and Landscape Level with NLP and Geospatial Analysis of a Novel Database of 1500 Project Evaluations. LAND 2022. [DOI: 10.3390/land11010123] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/17/2022]
Abstract
Localized actionable evidence for addressing threats to the environment and human security lacks a comprehensive conceptual frame that incorporates challenges associated with active conflicts. Protective pathways linking previously disciplinarily-divided literatures on environmental security, human security and resilience in a coherent conceptual frame that identifies key relationships is used to analyze a novel, unstructured data set of Global Environment Fund (GEF) programmatic documents. Sub-national geospatial analysis of GEF documentation relating to projects in Africa finds 73% of districts with GEF land degradation projects were co-located with active conflict events. This study utilizes Natural Language Processing on a unique data set of 1500 GEF evaluations to identify text entities associated with conflict. Additional project case studies explore the sequence and relationships of environmental and human security concepts that lead to project success or failure. Differences between biodiversity and climate change projects are discussed but political crisis, poverty and disaster emerged as the most frequently extracted entities associated with conflict in environmental protection projects. Insecurity weakened institutions and fractured communities leading both directly and indirectly to conflict-related damage to environmental programming and desired outcomes. Simple causal explanations found to be inconsistent in previous large-scale statistical associations also inadequately describe dynamics and relationships found in the extracted text entities or case summaries. Emergent protective pathways that emphasized poverty and conflict reduction facilitated by institutional strengthening and inclusion present promising possibilities. Future research with innovative machine learning and other techniques of working with unstructured data may provide additional evidence for implementing actions that address climate change and environmental degradation while strengthening resilience and human security. Resilient, participatory and polycentric governance is key to foster this process.
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16
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Unlocking the Potential of Fish to Improve Food and Nutrition Security in Sub-Saharan Africa. SUSTAINABILITY 2021. [DOI: 10.3390/su14010318] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
Approximately one-third of the global population suffering from chronic hunger are in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In addition to high prevalence of chronic hunger, millions of people suffer from micronutrient deficiencies. Meanwhile, there is growing consensus across scientific disciplines concurring that fish plays a crucial role in improving food and nutrition security. Therefore, the present review aims to demonstrate the role of fish and the whole fisheries sector towards securing food and nutrition security in SSA by summarizing the existing literature. Fish is a treasure store of animal protein and essential micronutrients such as zinc, iodine, calcium, and vitamins, which are essential in human nutrition and have proven to help reduce the risks of both malnutrition and non-communicable diseases. Policymakers, development agencies, and society should recognize the role that the fisheries sector can play in combatting hunger and undernutrition, especially for the poor and marginalized people in SSA.
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