Probabilistic projections of increased heat stress driven by climate change

Daily rainfall variability controls humid heatwaves in the global tropics and subtropics

Humid heatwaves are a growing risk to human and animal health, especially in tropical regions. While there is established research on dry-bulb temperature heatwaves, greater understanding of the meteorological drivers of extreme humid heat is urgently needed. In this study, we find that recent rainfall is a key control on the occurrence of humid heatwaves in the tropics and subtropics and its effect is regulated by the energy- or moisture-limited state of the land surface. In moisture-limited environments, heatwaves are likely during, or immediately after, enhanced rainfall. In energy-limited environments, heatwaves are likely after suppression of rainfall for two days or longer. The nature of the threat to health from heat stress varies by environment. It depends on local adaptation to temperature or humidity extremes, as well as vulnerability to absolute or anomalous extremes. Early warning systems, which reduce exposure and vulnerability to weather extremes, can benefit from this understanding of humid heatwave drivers, highlighting the possibility of predicting events using satellite-derived rainfall and surface moisture data.

Expert Review: Confronting Climate-Driven Heat Risks to Maternal and Fetal Health

Importance

In the current era of climate change, extreme heat exposure poses escalating threats to maternal-fetal health. Despite the expansive scale of extreme heat exposure worldwide, dramatized by the record-breaking global ocean and atmospheric temperatures throughout 2023 and into 2024, the extent of the threat posed by heat is underestimated and underappreciated. Unlike the physical destruction wrought by climate-driven events like hurricanes and wildfires, heat exposure does not cause severe damage to the built environment. Yet, in most years, heat has been the deadliest hazard in the United States.

Objectives

This expert review aims to illuminate how climate-related heat affects maternal-fetal health and exacerbates health inequities. It will also discuss current knowledge gaps and underscore the crucial role that obstetric providers play in safeguarding pregnant persons from exposure to hazardous heat and increasing patient awareness of climate-related heat.

Evidence Acquisition

Evidence for this review was primarily acquired through a comprehensive search of PubMed-indexed articles using MeSH terms and text words to search for concepts related to "climate change," "heat," "obstetrics," "pregnancy," "heat stress disorders," and their synonyms.

Results

Extreme heat exposure threatens the health and well-being of pregnant persons and elevates the likelihood of poor birth outcomes like preterm birth, fetal demise, and stillbirth, among other pregnancy complications. Extreme heat exposure also increases the risk of dehydration, heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and gestational hypertension for pregnant persons.

Conclusions and Relevance

Ultimately, obstetric professionals are essential to improving the care of pregnant persons at increased risk from salient climate-related heat exposure.

Evaluation of a Temperature/Humidity Data Logger for the Usage in Cattle Barns

Climate change is a worldwide problem that is manifested in livestock farming with a decrease in animal health and welfare and economic losses due to heat stress. Therefore, a precise and continuous recording of the barn climate is essential to be able to implement actions at a certain threshold. The aim of this study was to evaluate a logger for temperature and humidity (Kestrel Drop D2) marketed for on-farm use in comparison to various other temperature/humidity data loggers under field conditions. Four different sensors were used and placed in different settings in cattle barns to correlate temperature and humidity measurements. Data were recorded for over a year in total. The data were very highly correlated. Furthermore, the area under the curve for the evaluated logger in comparison to the other ones was 0.99 to 1.0, using a temperature-humidity index cut-off of 72, often set to define heat stress. In conclusion, the evaluated logger performed equally well as the other used devices. For on-farm use, it is suitable.

Temperature overshoot responses to ambitious forestation in an Earth System Model

Despite the increasing relevance of temperature overshoot and the rather ambitious country pledges on Afforestation/Reforestation globally, the mitigation potential and the Earth system responses to large-scale non-idealized Afforestation/Reforestation patterns under a high overshoot scenario remain elusive. Here, we develop an ambitious Afforestation/Reforestation scenario by harnessing 1259 Integrated Assessment Model scenarios, restoration potential maps, and biodiversity constraints, reaching 595 Mha by 2060 and 935 Mha by 2100. We then force the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model with this scenario which yields a reduction of peak temperature by 0.08 oC, end-of-century temperature by 0.2 oC, and overshoot duration by 13 years. Afforestation/Reforestation in the range of country pledges globally could thus constitute a useful mitigation tool in overshoot scenarios in addition to fossil fuel emission reductions, but socio-ecological implications need to be scrutinized to avoid severe side effects.

Coping with extreme heat: current exposure and implications for the future

A preview of how effective behavioral, biological and technological responses might be in the future, when outdoor conditions will be at least 2°C hotter than current levels, is available today from studies of individuals already living in extreme heat. In areas where high temperatures are common-particularly those in the hot and humid tropics-several studies report that indoor temperatures in low-income housing can be significantly hotter than those outdoors. A case study indicates that daily indoor heat indexes in almost all the 123 slum dwellings monitored in Kolkata during the summer were above 41°C (106°F) for at least an hour. Economic constraints make it unlikely that technological fixes, such as air conditioners, will remedy conditions like these-now or in the future. People without access to air conditioning will have to rely on behavioral adjustments and/or biological/physiological acclimatization. One important unknown is whether individuals who have lived their entire lives in hot environments without air conditioning possess natural levels of acclimatization greater than those indicated by controlled laboratory studies. Answering questions about the future will require more studies of heat conditions experienced by individuals, more information on indoor versus outdoor heat conditions, and a greater understanding of the behavioral and biological adjustments made by people living today in extremely hot conditions.

Impact of Heat Stress on Oocyte Developmental Competence and Pre-Implantation Embryo Viability in Cattle

Rectal and vaginal temperatures are utilised in both in vivo and in vitro models to study the effects of heat stress on oocyte competence and embryo viability in cattle. However, uterine temperature increases by only 0.5 °C in heat-stressed cows, significantly lower than simulated increases in in vitro models. Temperature variations within oviducts and ovarian follicles during heat stress are poorly understood or unavailable, and evidence is lacking that oocytes and pre-implantation embryos experience mild (40 °C) or severe (41 °C) heat stress inside the ovarian follicle and the oviduct and uterus, respectively. Gathering detailed temperature data from the reproductive tract and follicles is crucial to accurately assess oocyte competence and embryo viability under realistic heat stress conditions. Potential harm from heat stress on oocytes and embryos may result from reduced nutrient availability (e.g., diminished blood flow to the reproductive tract) or other unidentified mechanisms affecting tissue function rather than direct thermal effects. Refining in vivo stress models in cattle is essential to accurately identify animals truly experiencing heat stress, rather than assuming heat stress exposure as done in most studies. This will improve model reliability and aid in the selection of heat-tolerant animals.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Outcomes for a Heat Illness Prevention Program in Outdoor Workers: A 9-Year Overview

OBJECTIVE

To describe the outcomes effect of removing the medical surveillance component from a heat illness prevention program (HIPP) for outdoor workers from a Central Texas municipality.

METHODS

Heat-related illness (HRI) frequency and workers' compensation (WC) cost were assessed retrospectively in a cohort of 329 workers from 2011-2019. During 2011-2017, the HIPP included training, acclimatization, and medical surveillance. In 2018-2019, a modified (mHIPP) was implemented that included training and acclimatization, but without medical surveillance.

RESULTS

The HRI rate during HIPP averaged 19.5 per 1000 workers during the first 4 years, dropped to 1.01 per 1,000 workers over the next 3 years, (2015-2017), and increased during mHIPP, to 7.6 per 1,000 workers.

DISCUSSION

Although the case increase during the mHIPP was small, medical surveillance may be an important component in lowering workforce HRI.

High-resolution projections of outdoor thermal stress in the twenty-first century: a Tasmanian case study

To adapt to Earth's rapidly changing climate, detailed modelling of thermal stress is needed. Dangerous stress levels are becoming more frequent, longer, and more severe. While traditional measurements of thermal stress have focused on air temperature and humidity, modern measures including radiation and wind speed are becoming widespread. However, projecting such indices has presented a challenging problem, due to the need for appropriate bias correction of multiple variables that vary on hourly timescales. In this paper, we aim to provide a detailed understanding of changing thermal stress patterns incorporating modern measurements, bias correction techniques, and hourly projections to assess the impact of climate change on thermal stress at human scales. To achieve these aims, we conduct a case study of projected thermal stress in central Hobart, Australia for 2040-2059, compared to the historical period 1990-2005. We present the first hourly metre-scale projections of thermal stress driven by multivariate bias-corrected data. We bias correct four variables from six dynamically downscaled General Circulation Models. These outputs drive the Solar and LongWave Environmental Irradiance Geometry model at metre scale, calculating mean radiant temperature and the Universal Thermal Climate Index. We demonstrate that multivariate bias correction can correct means on multiple time scales while accurately preserving mean seasonal trends. Changes in mean air temperature and UTCI by hour of the day and month of the year reveal diurnal and annual patterns in both temporal trends and model agreement. We present plots of future median stress values in the context of historical percentiles, revealing trends and patterns not evident in mean data. Our modelling illustrates a future Hobart that experiences higher and more consistent numbers of hours of heat stress arriving earlier in the year and extending further throughout the day.

Photosynthetic responses of Larix kaempferi and Pinus densiflora seedlings are affected by summer extreme heat rather than by extreme precipitation

The frequency and intensity of summer extreme climate events are increasing over time, and have a substantial negative effect on plants, which may be evident in their impact on photosynthesis. Here, we examined the photosynthetic responses of Larix kaempferi and Pinus densiflora seedlings to extreme heat (+ 3 °C and + 6 °C), drought, and heavy rainfall by conducting an open-field multifactor experiment. Leaf gas exchange in L. kaempferi showed a decreasing trend under increasing temperature, showing a reduction in the stomatal conductance, transpiration rate, and net photosynthetic rate by 135.2%, 102.3%, and 24.8%, respectively, in the + 6 °C treatment compared to those in the control. In contrast, P. densiflora exhibited a peak function in the stomatal conductance and transpiration rate under + 3 °C treatment. Furthermore, both species exhibited increased total chlorophyll contents under extreme heat conditions. However, extreme precipitation had no marked effect on photosynthetic activities, given the overall favorable water availability for plants. These results indicate that while extreme heat generally reduces photosynthesis by triggering stomatal closure under high vapor pressure deficit, plants employ diverse stomatal strategies in response to increasing temperature, which vary among species. Our findings contribute to the understanding of mechanisms underlying the photosynthetic responses of conifer seedlings to summer extreme climate events.

Reductions in premature deaths from heat and particulate matter air pollution in South Asia, China, and the United States under decarbonization

Following a sustainable development pathway designed to keep warming below 2 °C will benefit human health. We quantify premature deaths attributable to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution and heat exposures for China, South Asia, and the United States using projections from multiple climate models under high- and low-emission scenarios. Projected changes in premature deaths are typically dominated by population aging, primarily reflecting increased longevity leading to greater sensitivity to environmental risks. Changes in PM2.5 exposure typically have small impacts on premature deaths under a high-emission scenario but provide substantial benefits under a low-emission scenario. PM2.5-attributable deaths increase in South Asia throughout the century under both scenarios but shift to decreases by late century in China, and US values decrease throughout the century. In contrast, heat exposure increases under both scenarios and combines with population aging to drive projected increases in deaths in all countries. Despite population aging, combined PM2.5- and heat-related deaths decrease under the low-emission scenario by ~2.4 million per year by midcentury and ~2.9 million by century's end, with ~3% and ~21% of these reductions from heat, respectively. Intermodel variations in exposure projections generally lead to uncertainties of <40% except for US and China heat impacts. Health benefits of low emissions are larger from reduced heat exposure than improved air quality by the late 2090s in the United States. In contrast, in South and East Asia, the PM2.5-related benefits are largest throughout the century, and their valuation exceeds the cost of decarbonization, especially in China, over the next 30 y.

Machine learning analysis and risk prediction of weather-sensitive mortality related to cardiovascular disease during summer in Tokyo, Japan

Climate-sensitive diseases developing from heat or cold stress threaten human health. Therefore, the future health risk induced by climate change and the aging of society need to be assessed. We developed a prediction model for mortality due to cardiovascular diseases such as myocardial infarction and cerebral infarction, which are weather or climate sensitive, using machine learning (ML) techniques. We evaluated the daily mortality of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CEV) in Tokyo and Osaka City, Japan, during summer. The significance of delayed effects of daily maximum temperature and other weather elements on mortality was previously demonstrated using a distributed lag nonlinear model. We conducted ML by a LightGBM algorithm that included specified lag days, with several temperature- and air pressure-related elements, to assess the respective mortality risks for IHD and CEV, based on training and test data for summer 2010-2019. These models were used to evaluate the effect of climate change on the risk for IHD mortality in Tokyo by applying transfer learning (TL). ML with TL predicted that the daily IHD mortality risk in Tokyo would averagely increase by 29% and 35% at the 95th and 99th percentiles, respectively, using a high-level warming-climate scenario in 2045-2055, compared to the risk simulated using ML in 2009-2019.

Avoidable heat risk under scenarios of carbon neutrality by mid-century

To prevent anthropogenic warming of the climate system above dangerous thresholds, governments are required by the Paris Agreement to peak global anthropogenic CO2 emissions and to reach a net zero CO2 emissions level (also known as carbon neutrality). Growing concerns are being expressed about the increasing heat stress caused by the interaction of changes in temperature and humidity in the context of global warming. Although much effort has been made to examine future changes in heat stress and associated risks, gaps remain in understanding the quantitative benefits of heat-risk avoidance from carbon-neutral policies, limited by the traditional climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Here we quantify the avoided heat risk during 2040-2049 under two scenarios of global carbon neutrality by 2060 and 2050, i.e., moderate green (MODGREEN) and strong green (STRGREEN) recovery scenarios, relative to the baseline scenario (FOSSIL), based on multi-model large ensemble climate projections from a new climate model intercomparison project (CovidMIP) that endorsed by CMIP6. We show that global population exposure to extreme heat stress increases by approximately four times its current level during 2040-2049 under the FOSSIL scenario, whereas the heat exposure could be reduced by as much as 12 % and 23 % under the MODGREEN and STRGREEN scenarios, respectively. Moreover, global mean heat-related mortality risk is mitigated by 14 % (24 %) under the MODGREEN (STRGREEN) scenario during 2040-2049 relative to the FOSSIL scenario. Additionally, the aggravating heat risk could be mitigated by around a tenth by achieving carbon neutrality 10 years earlier (2050 versus 2060). In terms of spatial pattern, this heat-risk avoidance from low-carbon policies is typically greater in low-income countries. Our findings assist governments in advancing early climate change mitigation policy-making.

Human thermal physiological response of wearing personal protective equipment: An educational building semi-open space experimental investigation

With the outbreak and spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, HCWs are frequently required to wear personal protective equipment (PPE) for nucleic acid sample collection in semi-open transition spaces. Wearing PPE causes significant psychological and physical stress in HCWs. In this study, operative temperature (T_op) and wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) were used to assess thermal conditions through field experiments, while multiple physiological parameters were measured in the subjects. The results indicated that the subjects showed statistically significant differences in thermal perception and physiological parameters with and without PPE. Using observed increases in heart rate (HR), auditory canal temperature (T_ac), mean skin temperature (MST), and end-tidal CO₂ pressure, subjects were shown to have an increased metabolic rate and heat storage while wearing PPE. Additionally, a decrease in oxygen concentration was also observed, and this decrease may be linked to fatigue and cognitive impairment. Moreover, HR, MST, and T_ac showed a significant linear relationship, which increased with temperature and operative temperature, and the HR response was stronger with PPE than without PPE. The neutral, preferred, and acceptable temperatures were significantly lower with PPE than without PPE, and the deviations for neutral T_op/WBGT were 9.5/7.1 °C and preferred T_op/WBGT was 2.2/4.0 °C, respectively. Moreover, the upper limits of acceptable WBGT, 29.4 °C with PPE and 20.4 °C without PPE, differed significantly between the two phases. Furthermore, the recorded physiological parameter responses and thermal perception responses of the subjects while wearing PPE indicated that they were at risk of thermal stress. Overall, these results suggest that people who wear PPE should focus on their health and thermal stress. This study provides a reference for the development of strategies to counteract heat stress and improve thermal comfort.

The Effect of Air Pollution Control Auditing on Reducing Carbon Emissions: Evidence from China

Analyzing the carbon-emission-reduction mechanism from the perspective of air pollution control auditing is of great practical significance for China to implement the dual-carbon strategy. Based on the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2018, we examine whether and how the auditing of air pollution control has an impact on carbon emission reduction by using multiple regression method and the mediating analysis. Our analyses show that air pollution control auditing can significantly restrain carbon emissions but has no impact on carbon emission intensity. Further research suggests that (1) the bottom-up audit represented by local audit institutions is more effective than the top-down audit represented by the National Audit Office; (2) air pollution control auditing follows a simple and direct method to curb carbon emissions by output reduction, regulation, and shutdown, rather than promoting technological progress and green transformation of enterprises in a high-quality development mode. Those findings provide an improvement direction for air pollution control auditing to contribute to carbon emission reduction and supply relevant policy references for implementing the dual carbon strategy.