Temporally inter-comparable maps of terrestrial wilderness and the Last of the Wild

Comparing expedient and proactive approaches to the planning of protected area networks on Borneo

Protected areas are an important tool for wildlife conservation; however, research is increasingly revealing both biases and inadequacies in the global protected area network. One common criticism is that protected areas are frequently located in remote, high-elevation regions, which may face fewer threats compared to more accessible locations. To explore the conservation implications of this issue, we consider a thought experiment with seven different counterfactual scenarios for the Sunda clouded leopard's conservation on Borneo. This allows us to examine two contrasting paradigms for conservation: "proactive conservation" which prioritises areas with high biodiversity and high risk of development, and "expedient conservation" which focusses on areas with the lowest development risk. We select clouded leopards as our focal species not only because of their emerging conservation importance, but also because, as top predators, they represent both keystone species and ambassadors for wider forest biodiversity. Furthermore, a published analysis of the likely impacts of forest loss in their habitat provides a benchmark for evaluating the modelled outcomes of alternative hypothetical conservation scenarios. We find that, across all metrics, expedient reserve design offered few benefits over the business-as-usual scenario, in contrast to the much greater conservation effectiveness of proactive protected area design. This paper sheds light on the challenging trade-offs between conservation goals and the competing land uses essential for the economic development and well-being of local communities.

Expanding China's protected areas network to enhance resilience of climate connectivity

Expanding the network of connected and resilient protected areas (PAs) for climate change adaptation can help species track suitable climate conditions and safeguard biodiversity. This is often overlooked when expanding PAs and quantifying their benefits, resulting in an underestimate of the benefits of expanding PAs. We expanded PAs through terrestrial mammalian species distribution hotspots, Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs), and wilderness areas. Then, we constructed climate connectivity networks using a resistance-based approach and further quantified the network resilience to propose resilient climate response strategies in China. The results showed that existing PAs suffered from location biases with important biodiversity areas. The existing PAs represented about half of the KBAs and wilderness areas, yet only 12.08% of terrestrial mammalian species distribution hotspots were located within existing PAs. Compared with the existing PA network, the network efficiency and resilience of the expanded PAs' climate connectivity increased to 1.80 times and 1.78 times, respectively. With 56% of the nodes remaining, the network efficiency of the expanded PAs was equivalent to that of the existing PAs with all nodes. The network resilience of preferentially protecting and restoring low human footprint patches was approximately 1.5-2 times that of the random scenario. These findings highlighted that confronted with the unoptimistic situation of global warming, nature conservation based on existing PAs was no longer optimal. It was critical to construct a connected and resilient conservation network relying on both important biodiversity areas and low human footprint patches.

Early-stage loss of ecological integrity drives the risk of zoonotic disease emergence

Anthropogenic pressures have increasingly disrupted the integrity of ecosystems worldwide, jeopardizing their capacity to provide essential contributions to human well-being. Recently, the role of natural ecosystems in reducing disease emergence risk has gained prominence in decision-making processes, as scientific evidence indicates that human-driven pressure, such as habitat destruction and deforestation, can trigger the emergence of zoonotic infectious diseases. However, the intricate relationship between biodiversity and emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) remains only partially understood. Here, we updated the most comprehensive zoonotic EID event database with the latest reported events to analyse the relationship between EIDs of wildlife origin (zoonoses) and various facets of ecological integrity. We found EID risk was strongly predicted by structural integrity metrics such as human footprint and ecoregion intactness, in addition to environmental variables such as tropical rainforest density and mammal species richness. EID events were more likely to occur in areas with intermediate levels of compositional and structural integrity, underscoring the risk posed by human encroachment into pristine, undisturbed lands. Our study highlights the need to identify novel indicators and targets that can effectively address EID risk alongside other pressing global challenges in sustainable development, ultimately informing strategies for preserving both human and environmental health.

A review of global wilderness area identification since the 21st century

Wilderness areas are natural landscape elements that are relatively undisrupted by human activity and play a critical role in maintaining ecological equilibrium, preserving naturalness, and ensuring ecosystem resilience. Since 2000, monitoring of global wilderness areas has increased owing to the availability of spatial map data and remote sensing imagery related to human activity and/or human footprint. Progress has been made in the remote sensing of wilderness areas by relying on available historical literature (e.g., published papers, books, and reports). However, to our knowledge, a synthesis of wilderness area research from a remote sensing perspective has not yet been performed. In this preliminary review, we discuss the concept of wilderness in different historical eras and systematically summarize dynamic wilderness monitoring at local, national, and global scales, available remotely sensed indicators, disparities and commonalities in identification methods, and mapping uncertainties. Finally, since this field remains in its initial stage owing to a lack of unified standards and vertical/horizontal comparisons, we present insights into future research directions, particularly with regard to remote sensing. The findings of this review may help to improve the overall understanding of current wilderness patterns (i.e., increases/decreases) and the mechanisms by which they change, as well as provide guidance for global nature conservation programs.

Symbiont plasticity as a driver of plant success

We discuss which plant species are likely to become winners, that is achieve the highest global abundance, in changing landscapes, and whether plant-associated microbes play a determining role. Reduction and fragmentation of natural habitats in historic landscapes have led to the emergence of patchy, hybrid landscapes, and novel landscapes where anthropogenic ecosystems prevail. In patchy landscapes, species with broad niches are favoured. Plasticity in the degree of association with symbiotic microbes may contribute to broader plant niches and optimization of symbiosis costs and benefits, by downregulating symbiosis when it is unnecessary and upregulating it when it is beneficial. Plasticity can also be expressed as the switch from one type of mutualism to another, for example from nutritive to defensive mutualism with increasing soil fertility and the associated increase in parasite load. Upon dispersal, wide mutualistic partner receptivity is another facet of symbiont plasticity that becomes beneficial, because plants are not limited by the availability of specialist partners when arriving at new locations. Thus, under conditions of global change, symbiont plasticity allows plants to optimize the activity of mutualistic relationships, potentially allowing them to become winners by maximizing geographic occupancy and local abundance.

30×30 biodiversity gains rely on national coordination

Global commitments to protect 30% of land by 2030 present an opportunity to combat the biodiversity crisis, but reducing extinction risk will depend on where countries expand protection. Here, we explore a range of 30×30 conservation scenarios that vary what dimension of biodiversity is prioritized (taxonomic groups, species-at-risk, biodiversity facets) and how protection is coordinated (transnational, national, or regional approaches) to test which decisions influence our ability to capture biodiversity in spatial planning. Using Canada as a model nation, we evaluate how well each scenario captures biodiversity using scalable indicators while accounting for climate change, data bias, and uncertainty. We find that only 15% of all terrestrial vertebrates, plants, and butterflies (representing only 6.6% of species-at-risk) are adequately represented in existing protected land. However, a nationally coordinated approach to 30×30 could protect 65% of all species representing 40% of all species-at-risk. How protection is coordinated has the largest impact, with regional approaches protecting up to 38% fewer species and 65% fewer species-at-risk, while the choice of biodiversity incurs much smaller trade-offs. These results demonstrate the potential of 30×30 while highlighting the critical importance of biodiversity-informed national strategies.

Wilderness areas under threat from global redistribution of agriculture

Agriculture expansion is already the primary cause of terrestrial biodiversity loss globally1,2; yet, to meet the demands of growing human populations, production is expected to have to double by 2050.3 The challenge of achieving expansion without further detriment to the environment and biodiversity is huge and potentially compounded by climate change, which may necessitate shifting agriculture zones poleward to regions with more suitable climates,4 threatening species or areas of conservation priority.5,6,7 However, the possible future overlap between agricultural suitability and wilderness areas, increasingly recognized for significant biodiversity, cultural, and climate regulation values, has not yet been examined. Here, using high-resolution climate data, we model global present and future climate suitability for 1,708 crop varieties. We project, over the next 40 years, that 2.7 million km2 of land within wilderness will become newly suitable for agriculture, equivalent to 7% of the total wilderness area outside Antarctica. The increase in potentially cultivable land in wilderness areas is particularly acute at higher latitudes in the northern hemisphere, where 76.3% of newly suitable land is currently wilderness, equivalent to 10.2% of the total wilderness area. Our results highlight an important and previously unidentified possible consequence of the disproportionate warming known to be occurring in high northern latitudes. Because we find that, globally, 72.0% of currently cultivable land is predicted to experience a net loss in total crop diversity, agricultural expansion is a major emerging threat to wilderness. Without protection, the vital integrity of these valuable areas could be irreversibly lost.

Human footprints in the Global South accelerate biomass carbon loss in ecologically sensitive regions

Human activities have placed significant pressure on the terrestrial biosphere, leading to ecosystem degradation and carbon losses. However, the full impact of these activities on terrestrial biomass carbon remains unexplored. In this study, we examined changes in global human footprint (HFP) and human-induced aboveground biomass carbon (AGBC) losses from 2000 to 2018. Our findings show an increasing trend in HFP globally, resulting in the conversion of wilderness areas to highly modified regions. These changes have altered global biomes' habitats, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. We also found accelerated AGBC loss driven by HFP expansion, with a total loss of 19.99 ± 0.196 PgC from 2000 to 2018, especially in tropical regions. Additionally, AGBC is more vulnerable in the Global South than in the Global North. Human activities threaten natural habitats, resulting in increasing AGBC loss even in strictly protected areas. Therefore, scientifically guided planning of future human activities is crucial to protect half of Earth through mitigation and adaptation under future risks of climate change and global urbanization.

Solar Energy-driven Land-cover Change Could Alter Landscapes Critical to Animal Movement in the Continental United States

The United States may produce as much as 45% of its electricity using solar energy technology by 2050, which could require more than 40,000 km2 of land to be converted to large-scale solar energy production facilities. Little is known about how such development may impact animal movement. Here, we use five spatially explicit projections of solar energy development through 2050 to assess the extent to which ground-mounted photovoltaic solar energy expansion in the continental United States may impact land-cover and alter areas important for animal movement. Our results suggest that there could be a substantial overlap between solar energy development and land important for animal movement: across projections, 7-17% of total development is expected to occur on land with high value for movement between large protected areas, while 27-33% of total development is expected to occur on land with high value for climate-change-induced migration. We also found substantial variation in the potential overlap of development and land important for movement at the state level. Solar energy development, and the policies that shape it, may align goals for biodiversity and climate change by incorporating the preservation of animal movement as a consideration in the planning process.

Integrating human footprint with ensemble modelling identifies priority habitats for conservation: a case study in the distributional range of Arnebia euchroma, a vulnerable species

Climate change-driven rapid alteration of ecosystems globally is further complicated by growing anthropogenic pressures, especially in the ecologically sensitive mountainous regions. However, these two major drivers of change have largely been considered separately in species distribution models, thus compromising their reliability. Here, we integrated ensemble modelling with the human pressure index for predicting distribution and mapping priority regions across a whole range of occurrences for vulnerable species, Arnebia euchroma. Our results identified 3.08% of the study area as 'highly suitable', 2.45% as 'moderately suitable', and 94.45% as 'not suitable' or 'least suitable'. Compared to current climatic conditions, future RCP scenarios of 2050 and 2070 showed a significant loss in habitat suitability and a slight shift in the distribution pattern of the target species. By excluding the high-pressure areas of the human footprint from the predicted suitable habitats, we were able to identify the unique areas (70% of the predicted suitable area) that need special attention for conservation and restoration. Such models, if well implemented, may play a pivotal role in achieving the effective targets under the aegis of the current UN decade on ecological restoration (2021-2030) in accordance with SDG 15.4.

Mass production of unvouchered records fails to represent global biodiversity patterns

The ever-increasing human footprint even in very remote places on Earth has inspired efforts to document biodiversity vigorously in case organisms go extinct. However, the data commonly gathered come from either primary voucher specimens in a natural history collection or from direct field observations that are not traceable to tangible material in a museum or herbarium. Although both datasets are crucial for assessing how anthropogenic drivers affect biodiversity, they have widespread coverage gaps and biases that may render them inefficient in representing patterns of biodiversity. Using a large global dataset of around 1.9 billion occurrence records of terrestrial plants, butterflies, amphibians, birds, reptiles and mammals, we quantify coverage and biases of expected biodiversity patterns by voucher and observation records. We show that the mass production of observation records does not lead to higher coverage of expected biodiversity patterns but is disproportionately biased toward certain regions, clades, functional traits and time periods. Such coverage patterns are driven by the ease of accessibility to air and ground transportation, level of security and extent of human modification at each sampling site. Conversely, voucher records are vastly infrequent in occurrence data but in the few places where they are sampled, showed relative congruence with expected biodiversity patterns for all dimensions. The differences in coverage and bias by voucher and observation records have important implications on the utility of these records for research in ecology, evolution and conservation research.

Land-use and climate risk assessment for Earth's remaining wilderness

Earth's wilderness areas are reservoirs of genetic information and carbon storage systems, and are vital to reducing extinction risks. Retaining the conservation value of these areas is fundamental to achieving global biodiversity conservation goals; however, climate and land-use risk can undermine their ability to provide these functions. The extent to which wilderness areas are likely to be impacted by these drivers has not previously been quantified. Using climate and land-use change during baseline (1971-2005) and future (2016-2050) periods, we estimate that these stressors within wilderness areas will increase by ca. 60% and 39%, respectively, under a scenario of high emission and land-use change (SSP5-RCP8.5). Nearly half (49%) of all wilderness areas could experience substantial climate change by 2050 under this scenario, potentially limiting their capacity to shelter biodiversity. Notable climate (>5 km year^-1) and land-use (>0.25 km year^-1) changes are expected to occur more rapidly in the unprotected wilderness, including the edges of the Amazonian wilderness, Northern Russia, and Central Africa, which support unique assemblages of species and are critical for the preservation of biodiversity. However, an alternative scenario of sustainable development (SSP1-RCP2.6) would attenuate the projected climate velocity and land-use instability by 54% and 6%, respectively. Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving the remaining intact natural ecosystems can help fortify these bastions of biodiversity.

Biogeography of terrestrial vertebrates and its conservation implications in a transitional region in western Mexico

Conservation biogeography, which applies principles, theories, and analyses of biodiversity distribution patterns to address conservation challenges, can provide valuable insight and guidance to policy making for protection of biodiversity at multiple scales. The temperate and tropical ecosystems of the Nearctic-Neotropical transition in the small western state of Colima, Mexico, support a mosaic of remarkably diverse fauna and flora and provide a rare opportunity to determine spatial distribution patterns of terrestrial vertebrate species, assess human-induced threats, and identify potential conservation strategies. We analyzed the spatial distribution patterns and correlated them with the current land cover and extent of the protected areas. Despite its limited geographic extension, 29% (866) of all vertebrates, and almost a quarter of both endemic and threatened species in Mexico, live in Colima. Our analysis identified clear high-richness concentration sites (i.e., “hotspots”) coincident for all groups and that elevation and both temperate and tropical ecosystems composition exert significant influence on richness patterns. Furthermore, current species´ distribution also showed significant correlation with natural and disturbed landcover. Significant hotspots for all species groups coincided poorly with the limited protected areas in the state (only 3.8%). The current state of natural land cover (less than 16%) in the state, coupled with its remarkable biological importance, highlights the need for further complementary conservation efforts including expansion and creation of new protected areas, significant restoration efforts and other conservation measures to maintain this uniquely biogeographic and biological diverse region of the country.

Global rarity of intact coastal regions

Management of the land-sea interface is essential for global conservation and sustainability objectives because coastal regions maintain natural processes that support biodiversity and the livelihood of billions of people. However, assessments of coastal regions have focused strictly on either the terrestrial or marine realm. Consequently, understanding of the overall state of Earth's coastal regions is poor. We integrated the terrestrial human footprint and marine cumulative human impact maps in a global assessment of the anthropogenic pressures affecting coastal regions. Of coastal regions globally, 15.5% had low anthropogenic pressure, mostly in Canada, Russia, and Greenland. Conversely, 47.9% of coastal regions were heavily affected by humanity, and in most countries (84.1%) >50% of their coastal regions were degraded. Nearly half (43.3%) of protected areas across coastal regions were exposed to high human pressures. To meet global sustainability objectives, all nations must undertake greater actions to preserve and restore the coastal regions within their borders.

High exposure of global tree diversity to human pressure

Safeguarding Earth's tree diversity is a conservation priority due to the importance of trees for biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services such as carbon sequestration. Here, we improve the foundation for effective conservation of global tree diversity by analyzing a recently developed database of tree species covering 46,752 species. We quantify range protection and anthropogenic pressures for each species and develop conservation priorities across taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity dimensions. We also assess the effectiveness of several influential proposed conservation prioritization frameworks to protect the top 17% and top 50% of tree priority areas. We find that an average of 50.2% of a tree species' range occurs in 110-km grid cells without any protected areas (PAs), with 6,377 small-range tree species fully unprotected, and that 83% of tree species experience nonnegligible human pressure across their range on average. Protecting high-priority areas for the top 17% and 50% priority thresholds would increase the average protected proportion of each tree species' range to 65.5% and 82.6%, respectively, leaving many fewer species (2,151 and 2,010) completely unprotected. The priority areas identified for trees match well to the Global 200 Ecoregions framework, revealing that priority areas for trees would in large part also optimize protection for terrestrial biodiversity overall. Based on range estimates for >46,000 tree species, our findings show that a large proportion of tree species receive limited protection by current PAs and are under substantial human pressure. Improved protection of biodiversity overall would also strongly benefit global tree diversity.

The minimum land area requiring conservation attention to safeguard biodiversity

Ambitious conservation efforts are needed to stop the global biodiversity crisis. In this study, we estimate the minimum land area to secure important biodiversity areas, ecologically intact areas, and optimal locations for representation of species ranges and ecoregions. We discover that at least 64 million square kilometers (44% of terrestrial area) would require conservation attention (ranging from protected areas to land-use policies) to meet this goal. More than 1.8 billion people live on these lands, so responses that promote autonomy, self-determination, equity, and sustainable management for safeguarding biodiversity are essential. Spatially explicit land-use scenarios suggest that 1.3 million square kilometers of this land is at risk of being converted for intensive human land uses by 2030, which requires immediate attention. However, a sevenfold difference exists between the amount of habitat converted in optimistic and pessimistic land-use scenarios, highlighting an opportunity to avert this crisis. Appropriate targets in the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework to encourage conservation of the identified land would contribute substantially to safeguarding biodiversity.

A global record of annual terrestrial Human Footprint dataset from 2000 to 2018

Human Footprint, the pressure imposed on the eco-environment by changing ecological processes and natural landscapes, is raising worldwide concerns on biodiversity and ecological conservation. Due to the lack of spatiotemporally consistent datasets of Human Footprint over a long temporal span, many relevant studies on this topic have been limited. Here, we mapped the annual dynamics of the global Human Footprint from 2000 to 2018 using eight variables that reflect different aspects of human pressures. The accuracy assessment revealed a good agreement between our mapped results and the previously developed datasets in different years. We found more than two million km2 of wilderness (i.e., regions with Human Footprint values below one) were lost over the past two decades. The biome dominated by mangroves experienced the most significant loss (i.e., above 5%) of wilderness, likely attributed to intensified human activities in coastal areas. The derived annual and spatiotemporally consistent global Human Footprint can be a fundamental dataset for many relevant studies about human activities and natural resources.

Predicted wind and solar energy expansion has minimal overlap with multiple conservation priorities across global regions

Protected areas and renewable energy generation are critical tools to combat biodiversity loss and climate change, respectively. Over the coming decades, expansion of the protected area network to meet conservation objectives will be occurring alongside rapid deployment of renewable energy infrastructure to meet climate targets, driving potential conflict for a finite land resource. Renewable energy infrastructure can have negative effects on wildlife, and co-occurrence may mean emissions targets are met at the expense of conservation objectives. Here, we assess current and projected overlaps of wind and solar photovoltaic installations and important conservation areas across nine global regions using spatially explicit wind and solar data and methods for predicting future renewable expansion. We show similar levels of co-occurrence as previous studies but demonstrate that once area is accounted for, previous concerns about overlaps in the Northern Hemisphere may be largely unfounded, although they are high in some biodiverse countries (e.g., Brazil). Future projections of overlap between the two land uses presented here are generally dependent on priority threshold and region and suggest the risk of future conflict can be low. We use the best available data on protected area degradation to corroborate this level of risk. Together, our findings indicate that while conflicts between renewables and protected areas inevitably do occur, renewables represent an important option for decarbonization of the energy sector that would not significantly affect area-based conservation targets if deployed with appropriate policy and regulatory controls.

Canada’s human footprint reveals large intact areas juxtaposed against areas under immense anthropogenic pressure

Efforts are underway in Canada to set aside terrestrial lands for conservation, thereby protecting them from anthropogenic pressures. Here we produce the first Canadian human footprint map by combining 12 different anthropogenic pressures and identifying intact and modified lands and ecosystems across the country. Our results showed strong spatial variation in pressures across the country, with just 18% of Canada experiencing measurable human pressure. However, some ecosystems are experiencing very high pressure, such as the Great Lakes Plains and Prairies national ecological areas that have over 75% and 56% of their areas, respectively, with a high human footprint. In contrast, the Arctic and Northern Mountains have less than 0.02% and 0.2%, respectively, of their extent under high human footprint. A validation of the final map, using random statistical sampling, resulted in a Cohen Kappa statistic of 0.91, signifying an “almost perfect” agreement between the human footprint and the validation data set. By increasing the number and accuracy of mapped pressures, our map demonstrates much more widespread pressures in Canada than were indicated by previous global mapping efforts, demonstrating the value in specific national data applications. Ecological areas with immense anthropogenic pressure highlight challenges that may arise when planning for ecologically representative protected areas.

Indigenous knowledge and the shackles of wilderness

The environmental crises currently gripping the Earth have been codified in a new proposed geological epoch: the Anthropocene. This epoch, according to the Anthropocene Working Group, began in the mid-20th century and reflects the "great acceleration" that began with industrialization in Europe [J. Zalasiewicz et al., Anthropocene 19, 55-60 (2017)]. Ironically, European ideals of protecting a pristine "wilderness," free from the damaging role of humans, is still often heralded as the antidote to this human-induced crisis [J. E. M. Watson et al., Nature, 563, 27-30 (2018)]. Despite decades of critical engagement by Indigenous and non-Indigenous observers, large international nongovernmental organizations, philanthropists, global institutions, and nation-states continue to uphold the notion of pristine landscapes as wilderness in conservation ideals and practices. In doing so, dominant global conservation policy and public perceptions still fail to recognize that Indigenous and local peoples have long valued, used, and shaped "high-value" biodiverse landscapes. Moreover, the exclusion of people from many of these places under the guise of wilderness protection has degraded their ecological condition and is hastening the demise of a number of highly valued systems. Rather than denying Indigenous and local peoples' agency, access rights, and knowledge in conserving their territories, we draw upon a series of case studies to argue that wilderness is an inappropriate and dehumanizing construct, and that Indigenous and community conservation areas must be legally recognized and supported to enable socially just, empowering, and sustainable conservation across scale.

Animal board invited review: Risks of zoonotic disease emergence at the interface of wildlife and livestock systems

The ongoing coronavirus disease 19s pandemic has yet again demonstrated the importance of the human-animal interface in the emergence of zoonotic diseases, and in particular the role of wildlife and livestock species as potential hosts and virus reservoirs. As most diseases emerge out of the human-animal interface, a better understanding of the specific drivers and mechanisms involved is crucial to prepare for future disease outbreaks. Interactions between wildlife and livestock systems contribute to the emergence of zoonotic diseases, especially in the face of globalization, habitat fragmentation and destruction and climate change. As several groups of viruses and bacteria are more likely to emerge, we focus on pathogenic viruses of the Bunyavirales, Coronaviridae, Flaviviridae, Orthomyxoviridae, and Paramyxoviridae, as well as bacterial species including Mycobacterium sp., Brucella sp., Bacillus anthracis and Coxiella burnetii. Noteworthy, it was difficult to predict the drivers of disease emergence in the past, even for well-known pathogens. Thus, an improved surveillance in hotspot areas and the availability of fast, effective, and adaptable control measures would definitely contribute to preparedness. We here propose strategies to mitigate the risk of emergence and/or re-emergence of prioritized pathogens to prevent future epidemics.

Identifying Riparian Areas of Free Flowing Rivers for Legal Protection: Model Region Mongolia

Mongolia has globally significant biodiversity and pastoral traditions, and scarce water resources on which wildlife and people depend. Rapid growth of the mining sector is a threat to water resources and specifically river riparian zones. Mongolia has passed progressive laws for water and habitat conservation, including establishment of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) and river basin governance organizations, and laws protecting the river riparian zone, but implementation has been hindered by limited technical capacity and data-scarcity, specifically because consistent, accurate maps of the riparian zone did not exist. To address this gap, WWF-Mongolia and partners developed a national delineation of riparian areas based on a spatial model, then validated this with local river basin authorities and provincial governments to designate legal protection zones. As a result, 8.2 million hectares of water protection zones including riparian areas have been legally protected from mining and industrial development in the globally significant landscapes and riverscapes of the Amur, Yenisey, and Ob Rivers headwaters, the Altai Sayan ecoregion, and the Gobi-Steppe ecosystem. These findings demonstrate a pathway for implementing broad-scale, durable legal protection of riverine wetlands through a data-driven, participatory process.

Mapping Changing Population Distribution on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau since 2000 with Multi-Temporal Remote Sensing and Point-of-Interest Data

Advanced developments have been achieved in urban human population estimation, however, there is still a considerable research gap for the mapping of remote rural populations. In this study, based on demographic data at the town-level, multi-temporal high-resolution remote sensing data, and local population-sensitive point-of-interest (POI) data, we tailored a random forest-based dasymetric approach to map population distribution on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) for 2000, 2010, and 2016 with a spatial resolution of 1000 m. We then analyzed the temporal and spatial change of this distribution. The results showed that the QTP has a sparse population distribution overall; in large areas of the northern QTP, the population density is zero, accounting for about 14% of the total area of the QTP. About half of the QTP showed a rapid increase in population density between 2000 and 2016, mainly located in the eastern and southern parts of Qinghai Province and the central-eastern parts of the Tibet Autonomous Region. Regarding the relative importance of variables in explaining population density, the variables “Distance to Temples” is the most important, followed by “Density of Villages” and “Elevation”. Furthermore, our new products exhibited higher accuracy compared with five recently released gridded population density datasets, namely WorldPop, Gridded Population of the World version 4, and three national gridded population datasets for China. Both the root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) for our products were about half of those of the compared products except for WorldPop. This study provides a reference for using fine-scale demographic count and local population-sensitive POIs to model changing population distribution in remote rural areas.

Area-based conservation in the twenty-first century

Humanity will soon define a new era for nature-one that seeks to transform decades of underwhelming responses to the global biodiversity crisis. Area-based conservation efforts, which include both protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures, are likely to extend and diversify. However, persistent shortfalls in ecological representation and management effectiveness diminish the potential role of area-based conservation in stemming biodiversity loss. Here we show how the expansion of protected areas by national governments since 2010 has had limited success in increasing the coverage across different elements of biodiversity (ecoregions, 12,056 threatened species, 'Key Biodiversity Areas' and wilderness areas) and ecosystem services (productive fisheries, and carbon services on land and sea). To be more successful after 2020, area-based conservation must contribute more effectively to meeting global biodiversity goals-ranging from preventing extinctions to retaining the most-intact ecosystems-and must better collaborate with the many Indigenous peoples, community groups and private initiatives that are central to the successful conservation of biodiversity. The long-term success of area-based conservation requires parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity to secure adequate financing, plan for climate change and make biodiversity conservation a far stronger part of land, water and sea management policies.

Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it  provides^1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity³; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge⁴. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity⁵. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.

Renewable energy production will exacerbate mining threats to biodiversity

Renewable energy production is necessary to halt climate change and reverse associated biodiversity losses. However, generating the required technologies and infrastructure will drive an increase in the production of many metals, creating new mining threats for biodiversity. Here, we map mining areas and assess their spatial coincidence with biodiversity conservation sites and priorities. Mining potentially influences 50 million km² of Earth’s land surface, with 8% coinciding with Protected Areas, 7% with Key Biodiversity Areas, and 16% with Remaining Wilderness. Most mining areas (82%) target materials needed for renewable energy production, and areas that overlap with Protected Areas and Remaining Wilderness contain a greater density of mines (our indicator of threat severity) compared to the overlapping mining areas that target other materials. Mining threats to biodiversity will increase as more mines target materials for renewable energy production and, without strategic planning, these new threats to biodiversity may surpass those averted by climate change mitigation.

Renewable energy production is necessary to mitigate climate change, however, generating the required technologies and infrastructure will demand huge production increases of many metals. Here, the authors map mining areas and assess spatial coincidence with biodiversity conservation sites, and show that new mining threats to biodiversity may surpass those averted by climate change mitigation.

Cost-effective priorities for the expansion of global terrestrial protected areas: Setting post-2020 global and national targets

Biodiversity loss is a social and ecological emergency, and calls have been made for the global expansion of protected areas (PAs) to tackle this crisis. It is unclear, however, where best to locate new PAs to protect biodiversity cost-effectively. To answer this question, we conducted a spatial meta-analysis by overlaying seven global biodiversity templates to identify conservation priority zones. These are then combined with low human impact areas to identify cost-effective zones (CEZs) for PA designation. CEZs cover around 38% of global terrestrial area, of which only 24% is currently covered by existing PAs. To protect more CEZs, we propose three scenarios with conservative, moderate, and ambitious targets, which aim to protect 19, 26, and 43% of global terrestrial area, respectively. These three targets are set for each Convention on Biological Diversity party with spatially explicit CEZs identified, providing valuable decision support for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.

Renewable energy development threatens many globally important biodiversity areas

Transitioning from fossil fuels to renewable energy is fundamental for halting anthropogenic climate change. However, renewable energy facilities can be land-use intensive and impact conservation areas, and little attention has been given to whether the aggregated effect of energy transitions poses a substantial threat to global biodiversity. Here, we assess the extent of current and likely future renewable energy infrastructure associated with onshore wind, hydropower and solar photovoltaic generation, within three important conservation areas: protected areas (PAs), Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs) and Earth's remaining wilderness. We identified 2,206 fully operational renewable energy facilities within the boundaries of these conservation areas, with another 922 facilities under development. Combined, these facilities span and are degrading 886 PAs, 749 KBAs and 40 distinct wilderness areas. Two trends are particularly concerning. First, while the majority of historical overlap occurs in Western Europe, the renewable electricity facilities under development increasingly overlap with conservation areas in Southeast Asia, a globally important region for biodiversity. Second, this next wave of renewable energy infrastructure represents a ~30% increase in the number of PAs and KBAs impacted and could increase the number of compromised wilderness areas by ~60%. If the world continues to rapidly transition towards renewable energy these areas will face increasing pressure to allow infrastructure expansion. Coordinated planning of renewable energy expansion and biodiversity conservation is essential to avoid conflicts that compromise their respective objectives.

Anthropocene refugia: integrating history and predictive modelling to assess the space available for biodiversity in a human-dominated world

During periods of strong environmental change, some areas may serve as refugia, where components of biodiversity can find protection, persist and potentially expand from should conditions again become favourable. The refugia concept has previously been used in the context of climatic change, to describe climatically stable areas in which taxa survived past Quaternary glacial-interglacial oscillations, or where they might persist in the future under anthropogenic climate change. However, with the recognition that Earth has entered the Anthropocene, an era in which human activities are the dominant driving force on ecosystems, it is critical to also consider human pressures on the environment as factors limiting species distributions. Here, we present a novel concept, Anthropocene refugia, to refer to areas that provide spatial and temporal protection from human activities and that will remain suitable for a given taxonomic unit in the long-term. It integrates a deep-time perspective on species biogeography that provides information on the natural rather than current-day relictual distribution of species, with spatial information on modern and future anthropogenic threats. We define the concept and propose a methodology to effectively identify and map realized and potential current and future refugia, using examples for two megafaunal species as a proof of concept. We argue that identifying Anthropocene refugia will improve biodiversity conservation and restoration by allowing better prediction of key areas for conservation and potential for re-expansions today and in the future. More generally, it forms a new conceptual framework to assess and manage the impact of anthropogenic activities on past, current and future patterns of species distributions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?'

Intact but empty forests? Patterns of hunting-induced mammal defaunation in the tropics

Tropical forests are increasingly degraded by industrial logging, urbanization, agriculture, and infrastructure, with only 20% of the remaining area considered intact. However, this figure does not include other, more cryptic but pervasive forms of degradation, such as overhunting. Here, we quantified and mapped the spatial patterns of mammal defaunation in the tropics using a database of 3,281 mammal abundance declines from local hunting studies. We simultaneously accounted for population abundance declines and the probability of local extirpation of a population as a function of several predictors related to human accessibility to remote areas and species' vulnerability to hunting. We estimated an average abundance decline of 13% across all tropical mammal species, with medium-sized species being reduced by >27% and large mammals by >40%. Mammal populations are predicted to be partially defaunated (i.e., declines of 10%-100%) in ca. 50% of the pantropical forest area (14 million km2), with large declines (>70%) in West Africa. According to our projections, 52% of the intact forests (IFs) and 62% of the wilderness areas (WAs) are partially devoid of large mammals, and hunting may affect mammal populations in 20% of protected areas (PAs) in the tropics, particularly in West and Central Africa and Southeast Asia. The pervasive effects of overhunting on tropical mammal populations may have profound ramifications for ecosystem functioning and the livelihoods of wild-meat-dependent communities, and underscore that forest coverage alone is not necessarily indicative of ecosystem intactness. We call for a systematic consideration of hunting effects in (large-scale) biodiversity assessments for more representative estimates of human-induced biodiversity loss.

Intact but empty forests? Patterns of hunting-induced mammal defaunation in the tropics

Tropical forests are increasingly degraded by industrial logging, urbanization, agriculture, and infrastructure, with only 20% of the remaining area considered intact. However, this figure does not include other, more cryptic but pervasive forms of degradation, such as overhunting. Here, we quantified and mapped the spatial patterns of mammal defaunation in the tropics using a database of 3,281 mammal abundance declines from local hunting studies. We simultaneously accounted for population abundance declines and the probability of local extirpation of a population as a function of several predictors related to human accessibility to remote areas and species' vulnerability to hunting. We estimated an average abundance decline of 13% across all tropical mammal species, with medium-sized species being reduced by >27% and large mammals by >40%. Mammal populations are predicted to be partially defaunated (i.e., declines of 10%-100%) in ca. 50% of the pantropical forest area (14 million km2), with large declines (>70%) in West Africa. According to our projections, 52% of the intact forests (IFs) and 62% of the wilderness areas (WAs) are partially devoid of large mammals, and hunting may affect mammal populations in 20% of protected areas (PAs) in the tropics, particularly in West and Central Africa and Southeast Asia. The pervasive effects of overhunting on tropical mammal populations may have profound ramifications for ecosystem functioning and the livelihoods of wild-meat-dependent communities, and underscore that forest coverage alone is not necessarily indicative of ecosystem intactness. We call for a systematic consideration of hunting effects in (large-scale) biodiversity assessments for more representative estimates of human-induced biodiversity loss.

Hotspots of human impact on threatened terrestrial vertebrates

Conserving threatened species requires identifying where across their range they are being impacted by threats, yet this remains unresolved across most of Earth. Here, we present a global analysis of cumulative human impacts on threatened species by using a spatial framework that jointly considers the co-occurrence of eight threatening processes and the distribution of 5,457 terrestrial vertebrates. We show that impacts to species are widespread, occurring across 84% of Earth's surface, and identify hotspots of impacted species richness and coolspots of unimpacted species richness. Almost one-quarter of assessed species are impacted across >90% of their distribution, and approximately 7% are impacted across their entire range. These results foreshadow localised extirpations and potential extinctions without conservation action. The spatial framework developed here offers a tool for defining strategies to directly mitigate the threats driving species' declines, providing essential information for future national and global conservation agendas.

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Vegetation Greenness Change and Associated Climatic and Anthropogenic Drivers on the Tibetan Plateau during 2000–2015

Alpine vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is known to be sensitive to both climate change and anthropogenic disturbance. However, the magnitude and patterns of alpine vegetation dynamics and the driving mechanisms behind their variation on the TP remains under debate. In this study, we used updated MODIS Collection 6 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the Terra satellite combined with linear regression and the Break for Additive Season and Trend model to reanalyze the spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation change on the TP during 2000–2015. We then quantified the responses of vegetation variation to climatic and anthropogenic factors by coupling climatic and human footprint datasets. Results show that growing season NDVI (GNDVI) values increased significantly overall (0.0011 year−1, p < 0.01) during 2000–2015 and that 70.37% of vegetated area on the TP (23.47% significantly with p < 0.05) exhibited greening trends with the exception of the southwest TP. However, vegetation greenness experienced trend shifts from greening to browning in half of the ecosystem zones occurred around 2010, likely induced by spatially heterogeneous temporal trends of climate variables. The vegetation changes in the northeastern and southwestern TP were water limited, the mid-eastern TP exhibited strong temperature responses, and the south of TP was driven by a combination of temperature and solar radiation. Furthermore, we found that, to some extent, anthropogenic disturbances offset climate-driven vegetation greening and aggravated vegetation browning induced by water deficit. These findings suggest that the impact of anthropogenic activities on vegetation change might not overwhelm that of climate change at the region scale.

Current challenges in distinguishing climatic and anthropogenic contributions to alpine grassland variation on the Tibetan Plateau

Quantifying the impact of climate change and human activities on grassland dynamics is an essential step for developing sustainable grassland ecosystem management strategies. However, the direction and magnitude of climate change and human activities in driving alpine grassland dynamic over the Tibetan Plateau remain under debates. Here, we systematically reviewed the relevant studies on the methods, main conclusions, and causes for the inconsistency in distinguishing the respective contribution of climatic and anthropogenic forces to alpine grassland dynamic. Both manipulative experiments and traditional statistical analysis show that climate warming increase biomass in alpine meadows and decrease in alpine steppes, while both alpine steppes and meadows benefit from an increase in precipitation or soil moisture. Overgrazing is a major factor for the degradation of alpine grassland in local areas with high level of human activity intensity. However, across the entire Tibetan Plateau and its subregions, four views characterize the remaining controversies: alpine grassland changes are primarily due to (1) climatic force, (2) nonclimatic force, (3) combination of anthropogenic and climatic force, or (4) alternation of anthropogenic and climatic force. Furthermore, these views also show spatial inconsistencies. Differences on the source and quality of remote sensing products, the structure and parameter of models, and overlooking the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of human activity intensity contribute to current disagreements. In this review, we highlight the necessity for taking the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of human activity intensity into account in the models of attribution assessment, and the importance for accurate validation of climatic and anthropogenic contribution to alpine grassland variation at multiple scales for future studies.