Large diurnal temperature range increases bird sensitivity to climate change

Temperature variability regulates the interactive effects of warming and pharmaceutical on aquatic ecosystem dynamics

Climate warming and pharmaceutical contaminants have profound impacts on population dynamics and ecological community structure, yet the consequences of their interactive effects remain poorly understood. Here, we explore how climate warming interacts with pharmaceutical-induced boldness change to affect aquatic ecosystems, built on an empirically well-informed food-chain model, consisting of a size-structured fish consumer, a zooplankton prey, and a fish predator. Climate warming is characterized by both daily mean temperature (DMT) and diurnal temperature range (DTR) in our model. Results show that DMT and high levels of species' boldness are the primary drivers of community instability. However, their interactive effects can lead to diverse outcomes: from predator collapse to coexistence with seasonality-driven cycles and coexistence with population interaction-driven cycles. The interactive effects are significantly modulated by daily temperature variability, where moderate DTR counteracts the destabilizing interactive effects by increasing consumer reproduction, while large temperature variability considerably reduces consumer biomass, destabilizing the community at high mean temperatures. Our analyses disentangle the respective roles of DMT, DTR and boldness in mediating the response of aquatic ecosystems to the impacts from pharmaceutical contaminants in the context of climate warming. The interactive effects of the environmental stressors reported here underscore the pressing need for studies aimed at quantifying the cumulative impacts of multiple environmental stressors on aquatic ecosystems.

Assessing the global vulnerability of dryland birds to heatwaves

As global average surface temperature increases, extreme climatic events such as heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, which can drive biodiversity responses such as rapid population declines and/or shifts in species distributions and even local extirpations. However, the impacts of extreme climatic events are largely ignored in conservation plans. Birds are known to be susceptible to heatwaves, especially in dryland ecosystems. Understanding which birds are most vulnerable to heatwaves, and where these birds occur, can offer a scientific basis for adaptive management and conservation. We assessed the relative vulnerability of 1196 dryland bird species to heatwaves using a trait-based approach. Among them, 888 bird species are estimated to be vulnerable to heatwaves (170 highly vulnerable, eight extremely vulnerable), of which ~91% are currently considered non-threatened by the IUCN, which suggests that many species will likely become newly threatened with intensifying climate change. We identified the top three hotspot areas of heatwave-vulnerable species in Australia (208 species), Southern Africa (125 species) and Eastern Africa (99 species). Populations of vulnerable species recorded in the Living Planet Database were found to be declining significantly faster than those of non-vulnerable species (p = .048) after heatwaves occurred. In contrast, no significant difference in population trends between vulnerable and non-vulnerable species was detected when no heatwave occurred (p = .34). This suggests that our vulnerability framework correctly identified vulnerable species and that heatwaves are already impacting the population trends of these species. Our findings will help prioritize heatwave-vulnerable birds in dryland ecosystems in risk mitigation and adaptation management as the frequency of heatwaves accelerates in the coming decades.

Avian responses to climate extremes: insights into abundance curves and species sensitivity using the UK Breeding Bird Survey

Climate change remains one of the most urgent challenges for biodiversity conservation. Recent studies have highlighted that climate extremes (CLEXs) can lead to widespread and negative effects across all taxa and ecological levels, but most of these studies are based on short-term periods and small spatial scales and lack a multi-species approach. Here, using generalised additive models (GAMs) and the UK Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), we described response curves for the abundance of 100 resident bird species over large spatial and temporal scales and identified the species showing a greater sensitivity to CLEXs. We used five climatic indices computed at 1-km spatial resolution as proxies of CLEXs during the winter or breeding season and considered both 1- and 2-year lagged effects. The results demonstrated widespread and significant effects of CLEXs on bird abundances at both time lags and in both seasons. Winter frost days (FD0), summer days (SU25) during the breeding season and simple precipitation intensity index (SDII) during the breeding season mainly showed negative effects. Daily temperature range (DTR) in both winter and breeding season and dry days (DD) during the breeding season led to diversified responses across the species, with a prevalence of positive effects. A large proportion of species showed a high sensitivity to CLEXs, highlighting that these species may deserve attention in future studies aimed at biodiversity conservation. We demonstrated that CLEXs can represent a significant driver affecting population abundances over large spatial and temporal scales, emphasising the need for understanding mechanistic processes at the basis of the observed effects.

Reversed asymmetric warming of sub-diurnal temperature over land during recent decades

In the latter half of the twentieth century, a significant climate phenomenon "diurnal asymmetric warming" emerged, wherein global land surface temperatures increased more rapidly during the night than during the day. However, recent episodes of global brightening and regional droughts and heatwaves have brought notable alterations to this asymmetric warming trend. Here, we re-evaluate sub-diurnal temperature patterns, revealing a substantial increase in the warming rates of daily maximum temperatures (Tmax), while daily minimum temperatures have remained relatively stable. This shift has resulted in a reversal of the diurnal warming trend, expanding the diurnal temperature range over recent decades. The intensified Tmax warming is attributed to a widespread reduction in cloud cover, which has led to increased solar irradiance at the surface. Our findings underscore the urgent need for enhanced scrutiny of recent temperature trends and their implications for the wider earth system.

Cool, dry nights and short heatwaves during growth result in longer telomeres in temperate songbird nestlings

Exposure to rising sublethal temperatures can affect development and somatic condition, and thereby Darwinian fitness. In the context of climate warming, these changes could have implications for population viability, but they can be subtle and consequently difficult to quantify. Using telomere length (TL) as a known biomarker of somatic condition in early life, we investigated the impact of pre-hatching and nestling climate on six cohorts of wild nestling superb fairy wrens (Malurus cyaneus) in temperate south-eastern Australia. Models incorporating only climate information from the nestling phase were best supported compared to those including the (pre-)laying to incubation phase (previously shown to affect mass) or both phases combined. This implies that nestling TL is most sensitive to ambient climate in the nestling phase. The top model showed a negative relationship between early-life TL and nestling mean daily minimum temperature when rainfall was low which gradually became positive with increasing rainfall. In addition, there was a positive relationship between TL and the frequency of hot days (daily maximum temperature ≥35°C), although these temperatures were rare and short-term. Including other pre-hatching and nestling period, climate variables (e.g., mean daily maximum temperature and mean diurnal temperature variability) did not improve the prediction of nestling TL. Overall, our results suggest that cooler nights when conditions are dry and short-term temperature spikes above 35°C during development are conducive for somatic maintenance. While these findings indicate a potential pathway for climate warming to impact wildlife fitness, they emphasize the need to elucidate the mechanisms underlying these complex associations.

Climate change is not just global warming: Multidimensional impacts on animal gut microbiota

Climate change has rapidly altered many ecosystems, with detrimental effects for biodiversity across the globe. In recent years, it has become increasingly apparent that the microorganisms that live in and on animals can substantially affect host health and physiology, and the structure and function of these microbial communities can be highly sensitive to environmental variables. To date, most studies have focused on the effects of increasing mean temperature on gut microbiota, yet other aspects of climate are also shifting, including temperature variation, seasonal dynamics, precipitation and the frequency of severe weather events. This array of environmental pressures might interact in complex and non-intuitive ways to impact gut microbiota and consequently alter animal fitness. Therefore, understanding the impacts of climate change on animals requires a consideration of multiple types of environmental stressors and their interactive effects on gut microbiota. Here, we present an overview of some of the major findings in research on climatic effects on microbial communities in the animal gut. Although ample evidence has now accumulated that shifts in mean temperature can have important effects on gut microbiota and their hosts, much less work has been conducted on the effects of other climatic variables and their interactions. We provide recommendations for additional research needed to mechanistically link climate change with shifts in animal gut microbiota and host fitness.

Effects of meteorological conditions on brood care in cooperatively breeding carrion crow and consequences on reproductive success

Meteorological stressors (e.g., temperature and rain shortage) constrain brood provisioning in some bird species, but the consequences on reproductive success have been rarely quantified. Here we show, in a cooperatively breeding population of carrion crow Corvus corone in Spain, that individual feeding rates decreased significantly with rising air temperatures both in breeders and helpers, while lack of rain was associated with a significant reduction in the effort of the male helpers as compared to the other social categories. Group coordination, measured as the degree of alternation of nest visits by carers, was also negatively affected by rising temperature. Furthermore, we found that the body condition of the nestlings worsened when temperatures were high during the rearing period. Interestingly, the analysis of a long-term data set on crow reproduction showed that nestling body condition steadily deteriorated over the last 26-years. Although many factors may concur in causing population changes, our data suggest a possible causal link between global warming, brood caring behaviour and the decline of carrion crow population in the Mediterranean climatic region of Spain.

Soundscape phenology: The effect of environmental and climatic factors on birds and insects in a subtropical woodland

Climate change and biodiversity loss are significant global environmental issues. However, to understand their impacts we need to know how fauna respond to environmental and climatic variation over time. In this study, remote sensing techniques (satellite imagery and passive acoustic recorders) were used to investigate the variation in biophony over different timescales, ranging from one day to one year, in a sub-tropical woodland in eastern Australia. The prominent sources of biophony were birds at dawn and during the day, nocturnal insects at dusk and during the night, and diurnal birds and insects (mainly cicadas) over the summer period of December, January, and February. While different environmental factors were found to be key drivers of phenological response in different faunal groups, temperature, humidity and the interactions between temperature, humidity, moon illumination and vegetation greenness were most important factors overall. Using observed temperatures relative to the historical mean for each day of the year, we evaluated the impact of higher-than-average temperatures on calling activity. We found that nocturnal insects call less frequently on days when the temperature was hotter than average in winter months (June, July, and August), and birds call less frequently in hot spring days (September, October, and November) meaning these groups can be susceptible to temperature increase as consequence, for example, of climate change. This study demonstrates how animal calling behaviour is affected by different environmental variables over different temporal scales. This study also demonstrates the utility of remote sensing techniques for assessing the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. It is highly recommended that monitoring schemes and impact assessments account for phenological changes and environmental variability, as these are complex and important processes shaping animal communities.

Variable ambient temperature promotes song learning and production in zebra finches

Current climate change is leading to increasingly unpredictable environmental conditions and is imposing new challenges to wildlife. For example, ambient conditions fluctuating during critical developmental periods could potentially impair the development of cognitive systems and may therefore have a long-term influence on an individual's life. We studied the impact of temperature variability on zebra finch cognition, focusing on song learning and song quality (N = 76 males). We used a 2 × 2 factorial experiment with two temperature conditions (stable and variable). Half of the juveniles were cross-fostered at hatching to create a mismatch between pre- and posthatching conditions, the latter matching this species' critical period for song learning. We found that temperature variability did not affect repertoire size, syllable consistency, or the proportion of syllables copied from a tutor. However, birds that experienced variable temperatures in their posthatching environment were more likely to sing during recordings. In addition, birds that experienced variable prenatal conditions had higher learning accuracy than birds in stable prenatal environments. These findings are the first documented evidence that variable ambient temperatures can influence song learning in zebra finches. Moreover, they indicate that temperature variability can act as a form of environmental enrichment with net positive effects on cognition.

Genome size variation and polyploidy prevalence in the genus Eragrostis are associated with the global dispersal in arid area

BACKGROUND

Biologists have long debated the drivers of the genome size evolution and variation ever since Darwin. Assumptions for the adaptive or maladaptive consequences of the associations between genome sizes and environmental factors have been proposed, but the significance of these hypotheses remains controversial. Eragrostis is a large genus in the grass family and is often used as crop or forage during the dry seasons. The wide range and complex ploidy levels make Eragrostis an excellent model for investigating how the genome size variation and evolution is associated with environmental factors and how these changes can ben interpreted.

METHODS

We reconstructed the Eragrostis phylogeny and estimated genome sizes through flow cytometric analyses. Phylogenetic comparative analyses were performed to explore how genome size variation and evolution is related to their climatic niches and geographical ranges. The genome size evolution and environmental factors were examined using different models to study the phylogenetic signal, mode and tempo throughout evolutionary history.

RESULTS

Our results support the monophyly of Eragrostis. The genome sizes in Eragrostis ranged from ~0.66 pg to ~3.80 pg. We found that a moderate phylogenetic conservatism existed in terms of the genome sizes but was absent from environmental factors. In addition, phylogeny-based associations revealed close correlations between genome sizes and precipitation-related variables, indicating that the genome size variation mainly caused by polyploidization may have evolved as an adaptation to various environments in the genus Eragrostis.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to take a global perspective on the genome size variation and evolution in the genus Eragrostis. Our results suggest that the adaptation and conservatism are manifested in the genome size variation, allowing the arid species of Eragrostis to spread the xeric area throughout the world.

Winter mortality of a passerine bird increases following hotter summers and during winters with higher maximum temperatures

Climate change may influence animal population dynamics through reproduction and mortality. However, attributing changes in mortality to specific climate variables is challenging because the exact time of death is usually unknown in the wild. Here, we investigated climate effects on adult mortality in Australian superb fairy-wrens (Malurus cyaneus). Over a 27-year period, mortality outside the breeding season nearly doubled. This nonbreeding season mortality increased with lower minimum (night-time) and higher maximum (day-time) winter temperatures and with higher summer heat wave intensity. Fine-scale analysis showed that higher mortality in a given week was associated with higher maxima 2 weeks prior and lower minima in the current fortnight, indicating costs of temperature drops. Increases in summer heat waves and in winter maximum temperatures collectively explained 62.6% of the increase in mortality over the study period. Our results suggest that warming climate in both summer and winter can adversely affect survival, with potentially substantial population consequences.

Topographic and vegetation drivers of thermal heterogeneity along the boreal-grassland transition zone in western Canada: Implications for climate change refugia

Climate change refugia are areas that are relatively buffered from contemporary climate change and may be important safe havens for wildlife and plants under anthropogenic climate change. Topographic variation is an important driver of thermal heterogeneity, but it is limited in relatively flat landscapes, such as the boreal plain and prairie regions of western Canada. Topographic variation within this region is mostly restricted to river valleys and hill systems, and their effects on local climates are not well documented. We sought to quantify thermal heterogeneity as a function of topography and vegetation cover within major valleys and hill systems across the boreal-grassland transition zone. Using iButton data loggers, we monitored local temperature at four hills and 12 river valley systems that comprised a wide range of habitats and ecosystems in Alberta, Canada (N = 240), between 2014 and 2020. We then modeled monthly temperature by season as a function of topography and different vegetation cover types using general linear mixed effect models. Summer maximum temperatures (T max) varied nearly 6°C across the elevation gradient sampled. Local summer mean (T mean) and maximum (T max) temperatures on steep, north-facing slopes (i.e., low levels of potential solar radiation) were up to 0.70°C and 2.90°C cooler than highly exposed areas, respectively. T max in incised valleys was between 0.26 and 0.28°C cooler than other landforms, whereas areas with greater terrain roughness experienced maximum temperatures that were up to 1.62°C cooler. We also found that forest cover buffered temperatures locally, with coniferous and mixedwood forests decreasing summer T mean from 0.23 to 0.72°C and increasing winter T min by up to 2°C, relative to non-forested areas. Spatial predictions of temperatures from iButton data loggers were similar to a gridded climate product (ClimateNA), but the difference between them increased with potential solar radiation, vegetation cover, and terrain roughness. Species that can track their climate niche may be able to compensate for regional climate warming through local migrations to cooler microsites. Topographic and vegetation characteristics that are related to cooler local climates should be considered in the evaluation of future climate change impacts and to identify potential refugia from climate change.

Hot and dry conditions predict shorter nestling telomeres in an endangered songbird: Implications for population persistence

Climate warming is increasingly exposing wildlife to sublethal high temperatures, which may lead to chronic impacts and reduced fitness. Telomere length (TL) may link heat exposure to fitness, particularly at early-life stages, because developing organisms are especially vulnerable to adverse conditions, adversity can shorten telomeres, and TL predicts fitness. Here, we quantify how climatic and environmental conditions during early life are associated with TL in nestlings of wild purple-crowned fairy-wrens (Malurus coronatus), endangered songbirds of the monsoonal tropics. We found that higher average maximum air temperature (range 31 to 45 °C) during the nestling period was associated with shorter early-life TL. This effect was mitigated by water availability (i.e., during the wet season, with rainfall), but independent of other pertinent environmental conditions, implicating a direct effect of heat exposure. Models incorporating existing information that shorter early-life TL predicts shorter lifespan and reduced fitness showed that shorter TL under projected warming scenarios could lead to population decline across plausible future water availability scenarios. However, if TL is assumed to be an adaptive trait, population viability could be maintained through evolution. These results are concerning because the capacity to change breeding phenology to coincide with increased water availability appears limited, and the evolutionary potential of TL is unknown. Thus, sublethal climate warming effects early in life may have repercussions beyond individual fitness, extending to population persistence. Incorporating the delayed reproductive costs associated with sublethal heat exposure early in life is necessary for understanding future population dynamics with climate change.

Woody encroachment of grasslands: Near-surface thermal implications assessed through the lens of an astronomical event

Temperature has long been understood as a fundamental condition that influences ecological patterns and processes. Heterogeneity in landscapes that is structured by ultimate (climate) and proximate (vegetation, topography, disturbance events, and land use) forces serve to shape thermal patterns across multiple spatio-temporal scales. Thermal landscapes of grasslands are likely shifting as woody encroachment fragments these ecosystems and studies quantifying thermal fragmentation in grassland systems resulting from woody encroachment are lacking. We utilized the August 21st, 2017, solar eclipse to mimic a rapid sunrise/sunset event across a landscape characterized as a grassland to experimentally manipulate levels of solar radiation in the system. We then quantified changes in near-surface temperatures resulting from changes in solar radiation levels during the eclipse. Temperatures were monitored across three grassland pastures in central Oklahoma that were characterized by different densities (low, medium, and high) of Juniperus virginiana to understand the impact of woody encroachment on diurnal temperature patterns and thermal heterogeneity in a grassland's thermal landscape. The largest temperature range across sites that occurred during the eclipse was in the mixed grass vegetation. Similarly, the largest change in thermal heterogeneity occurred in the grassland with the lowest amount of woody encroachment. Thermal heterogeneity was lowest in the highly encroached grassland, which also experienced the lowest overall change in thermal heterogeneity during the eclipse. Time series models suggested that solar radiation was the most influential factor in predicting changes in thermal heterogeneity as opposed to ambient temperature alone. These results suggest that highly encroached grasslands may experience lower diurnal variability of temperatures at the cost of a decrease in the overall thermal heterogeneity of that landscape. It appears that fine-scale spatio-temporal thermal variation is largely driven by solar radiation, which can be influenced by vegetation heterogeneity inherent within a landscape.

Effects of early-life conditions on innate immune function in adult zebra finches

Early life conditions can affect individuals for life, with harsh developmental conditions resulting in lower fitness, but the underlying mechanisms are not well understood. We hypothesized that immune function may be part of the underlying mechanism, when harsh developmental conditions result in less effective immune function. We tested this hypothesis by comparing innate immune function between zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata) in adulthood (n=230; age 108–749 days) that were reared in either small or large broods. We used this experimental background to follow up our earlier finding that finches reared in large broods have a shorter lifespan. To render a broad overview of innate immune function, we used an array of six measures: bacterial killing capacity, hemagglutination, hemolysis, haptoglobin, nitric oxide and ovotransferrin. We found no convincing evidence for effects of natal brood size on any of the six measures of innate immune function. This raised the question whether the origin of variation in immune function was genetic, and we therefore estimated heritabilities using animal models. However, we found heritability estimates to be low (range 0.04–0.11) for all measured immune variables, suggesting variation in innate immune function can largely be attributed to environmental effects independent of early-life conditions as modified by natal brood size.

Summary: Developmental hardship has many long-term implications, but its effects on adult immune function are unknown. We found no effects of a developmental manipulation on innate immune function during adulthood in zebra finches.

Effects of population, land cover change, and climatic variability on wetland resource degradation in a Ramsar listed Ghodaghodi Lake Complex, Nepal

Wetlands support livelihoods of millions of people in developing countries. However, wetland land cover change, as a result of growing population and subsequent anthropogenic activities, has been evident at a global scale, and ongoing micro-climate alteration has further deteriorating its ecological condition. Nepal is equally vulnerable to wetland changes that can have direct effects on the sustenance of local wetland-dependent people. This study thus attempts to look at how wetland areas of Nepal are undergoing changes, taking a case of Ghodaghodi Lake Complex (GLC). Remote sensing technique, climate, and population data were used in the analysis aided by focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Results showed that total population of the study area has been increased drastically in recent decades. Landsat image analysis for 25 years (1989-2016) depicts changes in the GLC in its land cover, with maximum expansion observed in settlement followed by river and banks, whereas maximum reduction was observed in forests, followed by areas of agricultural land and lake. Similarly, diurnal temperature is increasing while total annual rainfall is slightly decreasing during the same period. Locals have perceived ecological degradation in the GLC due to both anthropogenic pressure and climatic variability. The study outlines linkage of drivers for GLC degradation and finally makes recommendations to achieve longer term sustainability of the lake complex.

Short-Term Climate Variation Drives Baseline Innate Immune Function and Stress in a Tropical Bird: A Reactive Scope Perspective

Investment in immune function can be costly, and life-history theory predicts trade-offs between immune function and other physiological demands. Environmental heterogeneity may constrain or change the optimal strategy and thereby alter baseline immune function (possibly mediated by stress responses). We tested several hypotheses relating variation in climatic, ecological, and social environments to chronic stress and levels of baseline innate immunity in a wild, cooperatively breeding bird, the purple-crowned fairy-wren (Malurus coronatus coronatus). From samples collected biannually over 5 yr, we quantified three indexes of constitutive innate immune function (haptoglobin/PIT54, natural antibodies, complement activity) and one index of chronic stress (heterophil-lymphocyte ratio; <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>n</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn>513</mml:mn><mml:mtext>-</mml:mtext><mml:mn>647</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math> ). Using an information-theoretic and multimodel inference statistical approach, we found that habitat quality and social group size did not affect any immune index, despite hypothesized links to resource abundance and parasite pressure. Rather, short-term variation in temperature and rainfall was related to immune function, while overall differences between seasons were small or absent, despite substantial seasonal variation in climate. Contrary to our expectation, we found no evidence that physiological stress mediated any effects of short-term climatic variables on immune indexes, and alternative mechanisms may be involved. Our results may be interpreted from the perspective of reactive scope models, whereby predictive homeostasis maintains standing immune function relative to long-term demands, while short-term environmental change, being less predictable, has a greater influence on baseline immune function.

Coupling lifespan and aging? The age at onset of body mass decline associates positively with sex-specific lifespan but negatively with environment-specific lifespan

Whether lifespan scales to age-associated changes in health and disease is an urgent question in societies with increasing lifespan. Body mass is associated with organismal functioning in many species, and often changes with age. We here tested in zebra finches whether two factors that decreased lifespan, sex and poor environmental quality, accelerated the onset of body mass declines. We subjected 597 birds for nine years to experimentally manipulated foraging costs (harsh = H, benign = B) during development (small vs large brood size) and in adulthood (easy vs hard foraging conditions) in a 2 × 2 design. This yielded four treatment combinations (HH, HB, BH, BB) for each sex. Harsh environments during development and in adulthood decreased average body mass additively. The body mass aging trajectory showed a short steep increase in early adulthood, followed by a plateau and then a decline after 5 years. This decline occurred in all groups except for HB females, which gained mass until death. Surprisingly, the onset of body mass decline was earlier in experimental groups with a longer lifespan. In contrast, the onset of body mass decline was one year earlier in females, which lived two months (4%) shorter than males. Thus, the onset of body mass aging associated positively with the sex-specific differences in lifespan, but negatively with the environmental modulation of lifespan. Thus, body mass aging trajectories did not generally scale to lifespan, and we discuss the possible causes and implications of this finding.

Dominant malaria vector species in Nigeria: Modelling potential distribution of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and its siblings with MaxEnt

Malaria is a major infectious disease that still affects nearly half of the world's population. Information on spatial distribution of malaria vector species is needed to improve malaria control efforts. In this study we used Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to estimate the potential distribution of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato and its siblings: Anopheles gambiae sensu stricto, and Anopheles arabiensis in Nigeria. Species occurrence data collected during the period 1900-2010 was used together with 19 bioclimatic, landuse and terrain variables. Results show that these species are currently widespread across all ecological zones. Temperature fluctuation from mean diurnal temperature range, extreme temperature and precipitation conditions, high humidity in dry season from precipitation during warm months, and land use and land cover dynamics have the greatest influence on the current seasonal distribution of the Anopheles species. MaxEnt performed statistically significantly better than random with AUC approximately 0.7 for estimation of the Anopheles species environmental suitability, distribution and variable importance. This model result can contribute to surveillance efforts and control strategies for malaria eradication.

Corticosterone levels reflect variation in metabolic rate, independent of 'stress'

Variation in glucocorticoid hormones (GCs) is often interpreted as reflecting 'stress', but this interpretation is subject of intense debate. GCs induce gluconeogenesis, and we hypothesized therefore that GC variation can be explained by changes in current and anticipated metabolic rate (MR). Alternatively, GC levels may respond to psychological 'stress' over and above its effect on metabolic rate. We tested these hypotheses in captive zebra finches, by inducing an increase in MR using a psychological stressor (noise), and compared its effect on corticosterone (CORT, the primary avian GC) with the effect induced by a decrease in ambient temperature increasing MR to a similar extent. We found the increase in CORT induced by the psychological stressor to be indistinguishable from the level expected based on the noise effect on MR. We further found that a handling and restraint stressor that increased CORT levels also resulted in increased blood glucose levels, corroborating a key assumption underlying our hypothesis. Thus, GC variation primarily reflected variation in energy expenditure, independently of psychological stress. GC levels have many downstream effects besides glucose mobilization, and we propose that these effects can be interpreted as adjustments of physiological functions to the metabolic level at which an organism operates.

High intra-specific variation in avian body condition responses to climate limits generalisation across species

It is generally assumed that populations of a species will have similar responses to climate change, and thereby that a single value of sensitivity will reflect species-specific responses. However, this assumption is rarely systematically tested. High intraspecific variation will have consequences for identifying species- or population-level traits that can predict differences in sensitivity, which in turn can affect the reliability of projections of future climate change impacts. We investigate avian body condition responses to changes in six climatic variables and how consistent and generalisable these responses are both across and within species, using 21 years of data from 46 common passerines across 80 Dutch sites. We show that body condition decreases with warmer spring/early summer temperatures and increases with higher humidity, but other climate variables do not show consistent trends across species. In the future, body condition is projected to decrease by 2050, mainly driven by temperature effects. Strikingly, populations of the same species generally responded just as differently as populations of different species implying that a single species signal is not meaningful. Consequently, species-level traits did not explain interspecific differences in sensitivities, rather population-level traits were more important. The absence of a clear species signal in body condition responses implies that generalisation and identifying species for conservation prioritisation is problematic, which sharply contrasts conclusions of previous studies on the climate sensitivity of phenology.

Food availability affects adult survival trajectories depending on early developmental conditions

Food availability modulates survival in interaction with (for example) competition, disease and predators, but to what extent food availability in natural populations affects survival independent of these factors is not well known. We tested the effect of food availability on lifespan and actuarial senescence in a large population of captive zebra finches by increasing the effort required to obtain food, reflecting natural contrasts in food availability. Food availability may not affect all individuals equally and we therefore created heterogeneity in phenotypic quality by raising birds with different numbers of siblings. Low food availability had no effect on lifespan for individuals from benign developmental conditions (raised in small broods), but shortened lifespan for individuals from harsh developmental conditions. The lifespan difference arose through higher baseline mortality rate of individuals from harsh developmental conditions, despite a decrease in the rate of actuarial senescence. We found no evidence for sex-specific environmental sensitivity, but females lived shorter than males due to increased actuarial senescence. Thus, low food availability by itself shortens lifespan, but only in individuals from harsh developmental conditions. Our food availability manipulation resembles dietary restriction as applied to invertebrates, where it extends lifespan in model organisms and we discuss possible reasons for the contrasting results.

Baseline glucose level is an individual trait that is negatively associated with lifespan and increases due to adverse environmental conditions during development and adulthood

High baseline glucose levels are associated with pathologies and shorter lifespan in humans, but little is known about causes and consequences of individual variation in glucose levels in other species. We tested to what extent baseline blood glucose level is a repeatable trait in adult zebra finches, and whether glucose levels were associated with age, manipulated environmental conditions during development (rearing brood size) and adulthood (foraging cost), and lifespan. We found that: (1) repeatability of glucose levels was 30%, both within and between years. (2) Having been reared in a large brood and living with higher foraging costs as adult were independently associated with higher glucose levels. Furthermore, the finding that baseline glucose was low when ambient temperature was high, and foraging costs were low, indicates that glucose is regulated at a lower level when energy turnover is low. (3) Survival probability decreased with increasing baseline glucose. We conclude that baseline glucose is an individual trait negatively associated with survival, and increases due to adverse environmental conditions during development (rearing brood size) and adulthood (foraging cost). Blood glucose may be, therefore, part of the physiological processes linking environmental conditions to lifespan.

Unravelling Diurnal Asymmetry of Surface Temperature in Different Climate Zones

Understanding the evolution of Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR), which has contradicting global and regional trends, is crucial because it influences environmental and human health. Here, we analyse the regional evolution of DTR trend over different climatic zones in India using a non-stationary approach known as the Multidimensional Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (MEEMD) method, to explore the generalized influence of regional climate on DTR, if any. We report a 0.36 °C increase in overall mean of DTR till 1980, however, the rate has declined since then. Further, arid deserts and warm-temperate grasslands exhibit negative DTR trends, while the west coast and sub-tropical forest in the north-east show positive trends. This transition predominantly begins with a 0.5 °C increase from the west coast and spreads with an increase of 0.25 °C per decade. These changes are more pronounced during winter and post-monsoon, especially in the arid desert and warm-temperate grasslands, the DTR decreased up to 2 °C, where the rate of increase in minimum temperature is higher than the maximum temperature. We conclude that both maximum and minimum temperature increase in response to the global climate change, however, their rates of increase are highly local and depend on the underlying climatic zone.

Individual variation in metabolic reaction norms over ambient temperature causes low correlation between basal and standard metabolic rate

Basal metabolic rate (BMR) is often assumed to be indicative of the energy turnover at ambient temperatures (Ta) below the thermoneutral zone (SMR), but this assumption has remained largely untested. Using a new statistical approach, we quantified the consistency in nocturnal metabolic rate across a temperature range in zebra finches (n=3,213 measurements on 407 individuals) living permanently in eight outdoor aviaries. Foraging conditions were either benign or harsh, and body mass and mass-adjusted BMRm and SMRm were lower in individuals living in a harsh foraging environment. The correlation between SMRm at different Tas was high (r=0.91), independent of foraging environment, showing that individuals are consistently ranked according to their SMRm. However, the correlations between BMRm and SMRm were always lower (average: 0.29; range: 0&lt;r&lt;0.50), in particular in the benign foraging environment. Variation in metabolic response to lower Ta at least in part reflected differential body temperature (Tb) regulation: early morning Tb was lower at low Ta's, and more so in individuals with a weaker metabolic response to lower Ta's. Our findings have implications for the use of BMR in the estimation of time-energy budgets and comparative analyses: we suggest that the use of metabolic rates at ecologically relevant ambient temperatures, such as the easily tractable SMR, will be more informative than the use of BMR as a proxy for energy turnover.

climwin: An R Toolbox for Climate Window Analysis

When studying the impacts of climate change, there is a tendency to select climate data from a small set of arbitrary time periods or climate windows (e.g., spring temperature). However, these arbitrary windows may not encompass the strongest periods of climatic sensitivity and may lead to erroneous biological interpretations. Therefore, there is a need to consider a wider range of climate windows to better predict the impacts of future climate change. We introduce the R package climwin that provides a number of methods to test the effect of different climate windows on a chosen response variable and compare these windows to identify potential climate signals. climwin extracts the relevant data for each possible climate window and uses this data to fit a statistical model, the structure of which is chosen by the user. Models are then compared using an information criteria approach. This allows users to determine how well each window explains variation in the response variable and compare model support between windows. climwin also contains methods to detect type I and II errors, which are often a problem with this type of exploratory analysis. This article presents the statistical framework and technical details behind the climwin package and demonstrates the applicability of the method with a number of worked examples.

Stabilizing survival selection on presenescent expression of a sexual ornament followed by a terminal decline

Senescence is a decrease in functional capacity, increasing mortality rate with age. Sexual signals indicate functional capacity, because costs of ornamentation ensure signal honesty, and are therefore expected to senesce, tracking physiological deterioration and mortality. For sexual traits, mixed associations with age and positive associations with life expectancy have been reported. However, whether these associations are caused by selective disappearance and/or within-individual senescence of sexual signals, respectively, is not known. We previously reported that zebra finches with redder bills had greater life expectancy, based on a single bill colour measurement per individual. We here extend this analysis using longitudinal data and show that this finding is attributable to terminal declines in bill redness in the year before death, with no detectable change in presenescent redness. Additionally, there was a quadratic relationship between presenescent bill colouration and survival: individuals with intermediate bill redness have maximum survival prospects. This may reflect that redder individuals overinvest in colouration and/or associated physiological changes, while below-average bill redness probably reflects poorer phenotypic quality. Together, this pattern suggests that bill colouration is defended against physiological deterioration, because of mate attraction benefits, or that physiological deterioration is not a gradual process, but accelerates sharply prior to death. We discuss these possibilities in the context of the reliability theory of ageing and sexual selection.