Space-time clustering patterns in childhood leukaemia support a role for infection

Congenital Hypothyroidism: Space-Time Clustering of Thyroid Dysgenesis Indicates a Role for Environmental Factors in Disease Etiology

Background: The etiology of most cases of congenital hypothyroidism (CHT) due to thyroid dysgenesis (DG) is unknown. If transient environmental factors can impact on thyroid gland development, then clustering of cases in time and/or space may occur, and this would be more likely in thyroid DG than dyshormonogenesis (DHG). Methods: The newborn screening program for CHT in Scotland is linked to a central database that includes case details such as postcode. The etiology of CHT is investigated in many cases of CHT using scintigraphy and/or ultrasonography. We looked for evidence of a change in CHT incidence with year of birth and according to season of the year. We then undertook space-time clustering analysis (using a method based on K-functions, with nearest neighbor thresholds) of CHT in Scotland between 1979 and 2015. We also looked for evidence of overall changes associated with sex and area-based birth density. Results: Of 531 cases with CHT during the study period, 290 cases had been categorized as DG (n = 229) or DHG (n = 61) following more detailed investigation. The incidence of CHT increased with year of birth and was in part linked to changing methodology, but there was no seasonality. There was no evidence of overall space-time clustering (p = 0.06), but there was evidence of clustering in babies with DG (p = 0.007). This picture appeared to be most closely linked to underlying thyroid gland hypoplasia rather than thyroid gland agenesis or ectopia. There was significant space-time clustering for both males and females, but clustering was restricted to lesser birth density areas. There was also evidence of clustering for unknown cases (p < 0.001). Clustering of these cases was restricted to females but was present for cases from both greater and lesser birth density areas. There was no evidence of clustering in cases of DHG. Conclusions: These data suggest that an unidentified environmental factor or factors may be involved in the etiology of thyroid DG in Scotland. The variation in CHT incidence observed internationally may reflect environmental as well as genetic factors.

Temporal trend and spatial distribution of acute lymphoblastic leukemia in Iranian children during 2006-2014: a mixed ecological study

OBJECTIVES

The present study investigated the spatiotemporal epidemiological status of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), the most common childhood cancer, in Iran.

METHODS

Using an exploratory mixed design, this ecological study examined 3,769 under-15 children with ALL recorded in the National Cancer Registry of Iran during 2006-2014. Data were analyzed using the Mann-Whitney U test, the Getis-Ord general G (GOGG) index, optimized hot spot analysis, and Pearson correlation coefficients (PCC) at a significance level of 0.05.

RESULTS

The average annual incidence of the disease was 2.25 per 100,000 under-15 children, and the cumulative incidence rate (CIR) was 21.31 per 100,000 under-15 children. Patients' mean age was 5.90 years (standard deviation, 3.68), and the peak incidence was observed among 2-year to 5-year-olds. No significant difference was found in mean age between boys and girls (p=0.261). The incidence of ALL was more common during spring and summer than in other seasons. The GOGG index was 0.039 and significant (p<0.001). Hot spots were identified in south, central, and eastern Iran and cold spots in the north and west of Iran. The PCC between the CIR and latitude was negative (r=-0.507; p=0.003) but that between the CIR and longitude was positive (r=0.347; p=0.055).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of ALL in Iranian children was lower than that observed in developed countries, but showed an increasing trend. It can be argued that the incidence of ALL is due to synergistic interactions between environmental, infectious, geographical, and genetic risk factors.

Space-time clustering of childhood cancers: a systematic review and pooled analysis

The aetiology of childhood cancers remains largely unknown. Space–time clustering of cases might imply an aetiological role of infections. We aimed to review the evidence of space–time clustering of specific childhood cancers. We searched Medline and Embase for population-based studies that covered a pre-defined study area, included cases under 20 years of age and were published before July 2016. We extracted all space–time clustering tests and calculated the proportion of positive tests per diagnostic group. In a pooled analysis, we performed a Knox test of the number of pairs of cases close to each other in time and space pooled across studies. 70 studies met our eligibility criteria, 32 of which reported Knox tests. For leukaemia, the proportion of positive tests was higher than expected by chance at both time of diagnosis (26%) and birth (11%). The pooled analysis showed strong evidence of clustering at diagnosis for children aged 0–5 years for a spatial and temporal lag of 5 km and 6 months, respectively (p < 0.001). The evidence was mixed for lymphoma and tumours of the central nervous system. The current study suggests that leukaemia cases cluster in space–time due to an aetiological factor affecting children under 5 years of age. The observed pattern of clustering of young children close to time of diagnosis is compatible with Greaves’ delayed-infections-hypothesis.

Childhood and Adolescence Cancers in the Palermo Province (Southern Italy): Ten Years (2003⁻2012) of Epidemiological Surveillance

Italy has one of the highest paediatric cancer incidence rates in Europe. We compared cancer incidence and survival rates in children (0⁻14 years) and adolescents (15⁻19 years) residing in Palermo Province (PP) with statistics derived from Italian and European surveillance systems. We included all incident cancer cases, malignant tumours and non-malignant neoplasm of central nervous system (benign and uncertain whether malignant or benign), detected in children and adolescents by the Palermo Province Cancer Registry (PPCR) between 2003 and 2012. A jointpoint regression model was applied. Annual Average Percentage Changes were calculated. The Besag⁻York-Mollie model was used to detect any cluster. The 5-year survival analysis was computed using Kaplan-Meier and actuarial methods. We identified 555 paediatric cancer incident cases (90% “malignant tumours”). No difference in incidence rates was highlighted between PPCR and Italy 26 registries and between PPCR and Southern Europe. No jointpoint or significant trend was identified and no cluster was detected. The 5-year overall survival didn’t differ between PP and the Italian AIRTUM pool. A borderline higher statistically significant survival was observed in age-group 1⁻4 when comparing PPCR to EUROCARE-5. The epidemiological surveillance documented in the PP was a paediatric cancer burden in line with Italy and southern Europe. The study supports the supplementary role of general population-based cancer registries to provide paediatric cancer surveillance of local communities.

Space-Time Clustering of Childhood Leukemia: Evidence of an Association with ETV6-RUNX1 (TEL-AML1) Fusion

BACKGROUND

Many studies have observed space-time clustering of childhood leukemia (CL) yet few have attempted to elicit etiological clues from such clustering. We recently reported space-time clustering of CL around birth, and now aim to generate etiological hypotheses by comparing clustered and nonclustered cases. We also investigated whether the clustering resulted from many small aggregations of cases or from a few larger clusters.

METHODS

We identified cases of persons born and diagnosed between 1985 and 2014 at age 0-15 years from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. We determined spatial and temporal lags that maximized evidence of clustering based on the Knox test and classified cases born within these lags from another case as clustered. Using logistic regression adjusted for child population density, we determined whether clustering status was associated with age at diagnosis, immunophenotype, cytogenetic subtype, perinatal and socioeconomic characteristics, and pollution sources.

RESULTS

Analyses included 1,282 cases of which 242 were clustered (born within 1 km and 2 years from another case). Of all investigated characteristics only the t(12;21)(p13;q22) translocation (resulting in ETV6-RUNX1 fusion) differed significantly in prevalence between clustered and nonclustered cases (40% and 25%, respectively; adjusted OR 2.54 [1.52-4.23]; p = 0.003). Spatio-temporal clustering was driven by an excess of aggregations of two or three children rather than by a few large clusters.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest ETV6-RUNX1 is associated with space-time clustering of CL and are consistent with an infection interacting with that oncogene in early life leading to clinical leukemia.

Cross-space-time clustering of childhood cancer in Great Britain: evidence for a common aetiology

Previously, we identified space-time clustering in certain childhood cancers. This study aimed to determine whether there was cross-space-time clustering between different diagnostic groups. A total of 32,295 cases were diagnosed during 1969–1993. Cross-space-time clustering was analyzed by a second-order procedure based on Diggle's method. Locations were birth and diagnosis addresses. The following space-time combinations were examined: address and date of birth; address at birth and date of diagnosis; address and date of diagnosis. Cross-space-time clustering analyses considered clustering pairs of cases from two different diagnostic groups. Formal statistical significance was taken as p < 0.00067 and marginal significance 0.01 > p ≥ 0.00067. Based on address at birth and date of diagnosis, there was statistically significant cross-clustering between cases of HL and intracranial and intraspinal embryonal tumors (IIET), both aged 0–14 years (p < 0.0001). Based on address and date of birth, there was marginally significant cross-clustering between cases of lymphoid leukemia (LL) aged 5-14 years and Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) aged 0–14 years (p = 0.0019). Based on address and date of diagnosis there was marginally significant cross-clustering between cases of LL aged 1–4 years and soft tissue sarcoma (STS) aged 0–14 years (p = 0.0041). Findings from this study are consistent with possible common aetiological factors between different diagnostic groups. They suggest a common aetiology for the following pairs of diagnostic groups: HL and IIET; older cases of LL and HL; younger cases of LL and STS. The possibility of common infectious mechanisms should be explored.

Space-time clustering of non-hodgkin lymphoma using residential histories in a Danish case-control study

Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) is a frequent cancer and incidence rates have increased markedly during the second half of the 20(th) century; however, the few established risk factors cannot explain this rise and still little is known about the aetiology of NHL. Spatial analyses have been applied in an attempt to identify environmental risk factors, but most studies do not take human mobility into account. The aim of this study was to identify clustering of NHL in space and time in Denmark, using 33 years of residential addresses. We utilised the nation-wide Danish registers and unique personal identification number that all Danish citizens have to conduct a register-based case-control study of 3210 NHL cases and two independent control groups of 3210 each. Cases were identified in the Danish Cancer Registry and controls were matched by age and sex and randomly selected from the Civil Registration System. Residential addresses of cases and controls from 1971 to 2003 were collected from the Civil Registration System and geocoded. Data on pervious hospital diagnoses and operations were obtained from the National Patient Register. We applied the methods of the newly developed Q-statistics to identify space-time clustering of NHL. All analyses were conducted with each of the two control groups, and we adjusted for previous history of autoimmune disease, HIV/AIDS or organ transplantation. Some areas with statistically significant clustering were identified; however, results were not consistent across the two control groups; thus we interpret the results as chance findings. We found no evidence for clustering of NHL in space and time using 33 years of residential histories, suggesting that if the rise in incidence of NHL is a result of risk factors that vary across space and time, the spatio-temporal variation of such factors in Denmark is too small to be detected with the applied method.

Space-time clustering of childhood central nervous system tumours in Yorkshire, UK

BACKGROUND

We specifically tested the aetiological hypothesis that a factor influencing geographical or temporal heterogeneity of childhood central nervous system (CNS) tumour incidence was related to exposure to a transient environmental agent.

METHODS

Information was extracted on individuals aged 0-14 years, diagnosed with a CNS tumour between the 1st January 1974 and 31st December 2006 from the Yorkshire Specialist Register of Cancer in Children and Young People. Ordnance Survey eight-digit grid references were allocated to each case with respect to addresses at the time of birth and the time of diagnosis, locating each address to within 0.1 km. The following diagnostic groups were specified a priori for analysis: ependymoma; astrocytoma; primitive neuroectodermal tumours (PNETs); other gliomas; total CNS tumours. We applied the K-function method for testing global space-time clustering using fixed geographical distance thresholds. Tests were repeated using variable nearest neighbour (NN) thresholds.

RESULTS

There was statistically significant global space-time clustering for PNETs only, based on time and place of diagnosis (P = 0.03 and 0.01 using the fixed geographical distance and the variable NN threshold versions of the K-function method respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

There was some evidence for a transient environmental component to the aetiology of PNETs. However, a possible role for chance cannot be excluded.

Knox meets Cox: adapting epidemiological space-time statistics to demographic studies

Many important questions and theories in demography focus on changes over time, and on how those changes differ over geographic and social space. Space-time analysis has always been important in studying fertility transitions, for example. However demographers have seldom used formal statistical methods to describe and analyze time series of maps. One formal method, used widely in epidemiology, criminology, and public health, is Knox 's space-time interaction test. In this article, we discuss the potential of the Knox test in demographic research and note some possible pitfalls. We demonstrate how to use familiar proportional hazards models to adapt the Knox test for demographic applications. These adaptations allow for nonrepeatable events and for the incorporation of structural variables that change in space and time. We apply the modified test to data on the onset offertility decline in Brazil over 1960-2000 and show how the modified method can produce maps indicating where and when diffusion effects seem strongest, net of covariate effects.

Under-five mortality: spatial-temporal clusters in Ifakara HDSS in South-eastern Tanzania

Background

Childhood mortality remains an important subject, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where levels are still unacceptably high. To achieve the set Millennium Development Goals 4, calls for comprehensive application of the proven cost-effective interventions. Understanding spatial clustering of childhood mortality can provide a guide in targeting the interventions in a more strategic approach to the population where mortality is highest and the interventions are most likely to make an impact.

Methods

Annual child mortality rates were calculated for each village, using person-years observed as the denominator. Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic was used for the identification and testing of childhood mortality clusters. All under-five deaths that occurred within a 10-year period from 1997 to 2006 were included in the analysis. Villages were used as units of clusters; all 25 health and demographic surveillance sites (HDSS) villages in the Ifakara health and demographic surveillance area were included.

Results

Of the 10 years of analysis, statistically significant spatial clustering was identified in only 2 years (1998 and 2001). In 1998, the statistically significant cluster (p < 0.01) was composed of nine villages. A total of 106 childhood deaths were observed against an expected 77.3. The other statistically significant cluster (p < 0.05) identified in 2001 was composed of only one village. In this cluster, 36 childhood deaths were observed compared to 20.3 expected. Purely temporal analysis indicated that the year 2003 was a significant cluster (p < 0.05). Total deaths were 393 and expected were 335.8. Spatial–temporal analysis showed that nine villages were identified as statistically significant clusters (p < 0.05) for the period covering January 1997–December 1998. Total observed deaths in this cluster were 205 while 150.7 were expected.

Conclusion

There is evidence of spatial clustering in childhood mortality within the Ifakara HDSS. Further investigations are needed to explore the source of clustering and identify strategies of reaching the cluster population with the existing effective interventions. However, that should happen alongside delivery of interventions to the broader population.

Spatial clustering and space-time clusters of leukemia among children in Germany, 1987-2007

Leukemia is the most frequent malignancy in children under the age of 15 years. The question of whether childhood leukemia has a tendency for clustering or forms clusters has been studied for several decades. The environmental risk factor discussed most often is infection, which might result in spatial clustering and space-time clusters. The German Childhood Cancer Registry provided data on 11,946 children with leukemia diagnosed during 1987-2007, as classified in the International Classification for Childhood Cancer (third edition), aggregated by municipality. We used the Potthoff-Whittinghill model to test for a general trend for clustering and the spatial scan statistic to search for localized clusters. No evidence of global clustering was found, neither for the whole study population nor in sub-groups by age, period or population density, or for different types of leukemia. A similar result was found for localized clusters. The analysis shows no evidence of a tendency to clustering, however, aggregation of data at the municipality level might have diluted small localized clusters. The results of this study do not provide support for the hypothesis of an infectious or a spatial environmental etiology of childhood leukemia.

Specific viruses were not detected in Guthrie cards from children who later developed leukemia

There are hypotheses concerning infectious mechanism in the development of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). The first genetic event often happens in utero, based on studies from Guthrie cards. The authors have summarized the results from their studies concerning infectious mechanism. Presence of human polyomaviruses, parvovirus, HHV-6, EBV, and CMV were investigated by PCR from Guthrie cards from children who later developed ALL and healthy controls. Neither of these viruses were detected from patients nor from controls. The results do not support that these viruses have contributed to the development of a substantial part of the ALL cases in Swedish children.

Space-time clustering analyses of testicular cancer amongst 15-24-year-olds in Northern England

There has been speculation that environmental exposures may be involved in the aetiology of testicular cancer in adolescent boys and young men. Indirect evidence for this hypothesis would be provided by the finding of space-time clustering. To examine this we have looked for evidence of space-time clustering using data from a population-based cancer registry from Northern England. All cases of testicular cancer diagnosed in males aged 15-24 years during the period 1968-2002 were included in the study. Tests for space-time interactions between cases were applied with fixed thresholds of close in space and close in time. Addresses at birth and diagnosis were used in the analyses. To adjust for the effect of varying population density tests were repeated replacing fixed geographical distances with nearest neighbour thresholds. A total of 257 cases of testicular cancer were identified for analysis. Overall there was no evidence for space-time clustering. However, there was statistically significant space-time clustering for 15-19-year-old based on time of birth and place of diagnosis (p<0.001). The very limited finding of space-time clustering may provide tentative evidence for an environmental, or infectious component to aetiology. However, it may well be a chance finding. A larger study based on national data is required.

Spatial and space-time clustering of childhood acute leukaemia in France from 1990 to 2000: a nationwide study

This study aimed to investigate the spatial and space–time distributions of cases of childhood acute leukaemia (CL) during 1990–2000 over the whole French territory. A global spatial heterogeneity and a spatial autocorrelation were first considered using the methods proposed by Potthoff and Whittinghill, Moran and Rogerson methods. The presence of space–time interaction between the places of residence and the dates of diagnosis was investigated with the Knox's test. Finally, the Kulldorff's statistic permitted to scan the whole territory in search for localised clusters. Two time periods were considered (1990–1994, 1995–2000). Overall, a statistically significant spatial heterogeneity of a very small magnitude was observed in the incidence of CL over 1990–1994, but neither over 1995–2000 nor over the whole time period. Moreover, a significant overdispersion of 5.5% was evidenced for 0–4 year children living in isolated areas with more than 50 inhabitants per km². Cases older than 10 years living in the same area at diagnosis also tended to cluster within 6 months.

No CMV DNA in Guthrie cards from children who later developed ALL

An association of a viral infection in utero and development of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) has been suggested. Cytomegalovirus (CMV) has been reported as a leading agent of intrauterine infections resulting in some cases of congenital infections. The authors investigated the presence of prenatal CMV infection in children who later developed ALL. Guthrie cards were obtained from 48 children with ALL and 46 healthy children and were analyzed for the presence of CMV DNA by a real-time TaqMan PCR. CMV DNA was not detected in Guthrie cards from the children with ALL, from the control healthy children. The results show that prenatal CMV infection does not seem to be associated with later development of childhood ALL.

Space-time clustering of childhood cancer in great Britain: A national study, 1969–1993

Previous studies have provided evidence that infections may play a part in the aetiology of certain childhood cancers. The finding of space-time clustering indicates the presence of an environmental component to aetiology and is especially supportive of a role for infections. Space-time clustering occurs when excess numbers of cases of a disease are observed within small geographical locations at limited periods of time and this cannot be explained in terms of general excesses in those locations or at those times. To investigate whether infections may be involved in the aetiology of childhood cancer, we have analysed for space-time clustering using a large set of national population-based data from Great Britain for the period 1969-1993. Data were examined by a second-order procedure based on K-functions, with fixed thresholds of closeness in space (0.5-7.5 km) and closeness in time (0.1-1.5 years). Locations were addresses at diagnosis. Tests were repeated, replacing geographical distances with distances to the 19th-33rd nearest neighbours and this provided the primary result for each analysis. There were a total of 32,295 cases of childhood cancer. The analyses showed statistically significant evidence of space-time clustering for acute lymphoblastic leukaemia over the whole age range (p = 0.04), but especially for ages 1-4 years (p = 0.03). There was less statistically significant evidence for total leukaemia (p = 0.048). Significant space-time clustering was also evident for soft tissue sarcomas (p = 0.03) and osteosarcomas (p = 0.02). Results support other evidence suggesting a role for infections in the aetiology of these particular diagnostic groups.

Human herpes virus 6 or Epstein-Barr virus were not detected in Guthrie cards from children who later developed leukaemia

To investigate if children who later developed acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) were prenatally infected with HHV-6 and/or EBV, Guthrie cards taken at birth were analysed by PCR. Guthrie cards from 54 patients with ALL and 47 healthy controls matched for age and birth place were tested negative for both HHV-6 and EBV DNA. All samples contained amplifiable DNA when tested by HLA-DQ PCR. Our negative findings suggest that childhood ALL is unlikely to be associated with an in utero infection with EBV or HHV-6.

Childhood leukaemia incidence and the population mixing hypothesis in US SEER data

We evaluated the infectious aetiology hypothesis of childhood leukaemia that rapid population influx into rural areas is associated with increased risk. Using data from the US SEER program, we found that in changes in rural county population sizes from 1980 to 1989 were associated with incidence rates for childhood acute lymphocytic leukaemia (ALL). The observed associations were strongest among children 0-4 years of age, born in the same state as diagnosis, in extremely rural counties, and when counties adjacent to nonrural counties were excluded. Similar analyses for brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancer in children, a disease less linked to this infectious hypothesis, provide evidence against methodologic bias. Similar evaluations for other decades were not meaningful due to limited sample sizes and, perhaps, increased population mobility.

Human parvovirus B19 DNA is not detected in Guthrie cards from children who have developed acute lymphoblastic leukemia

BACKGROUND

There has been much speculation about the cause of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). It has been suggested, on the basis of findings in epidemiological studies, that ALL may be initiated by an in utero infection of the fetus. The human parvovirus B19 (B19) is etiologically related to human diseases, including erythema infectiosum and aplastic crisis, but it has not yet been considered to be involved in the development of ALL. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate, whether prenatal B19 infection could still be indirectly correlated with the development of childhood ALL.

PROCEDURES

Fifty-four Guthrie cards, collected at 3-5 days of age, from Swedish children who subsequently developed ALL, as well as from 50 healthy controls, were investigated by nested PCR for the presence of B19 DNA.

RESULTS

B19 DNA was not detected in any of the Guthrie cards from ALL patients or from healthy controls, although all tested samples had amplifiable cellular DNA as confirmed by an HLA DQ specific PCR.

CONCLUSION

B19 DNA was not found in any of the Guthrie cards from children who later developed ALL or in the healthy controls. These findings suggest that it is less likely that childhood ALL is associated with an in utero in fection with B19.

Human polyomavirus DNA is not detected in Guthrie cards (dried blood spots) from children who developed acute lymphoblastic leukemia

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological evidence has suggested that some childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) may be initiated in utero and may have an infectious etiology. The human polyomavirus JC virus (JCV) has been discussed as a candidate virus, but its presence has not been demonstrated in leukemia cells from children with ALL. The aim of this study was, therefore, to investigate if prenatal human polyomavirus infection could still indirectly be correlated to the development of childhood ALL.

PROCEDURE

Fifty-four Guthrie cards (stored, dried blood spots filter papers, routinely collected from newborns for different screening analyses), collected at 3-5 days of age, from Swedish children who subsequently developed ALL, as well as from 37 healthy controls, were investigated by nested PCR for the presence of human polyomaviruses JCV and BK virus (BKV).

RESULTS

JCV and BKV DNA were not detected in any of the Guthrie cards from ALL patients or from healthy controls, although all tested samples had amplifiable DNA as confirmed by an HLA DQ PCR.

CONCLUSIONS

JCV or BKV were not found in any of the dried blood spots of children who later developed ALL or in the healthy controls. These findings suggest that it is unlikely that childhood ALL is associated with an in utero infection with JCV or BKV, although it is not possible to exclude an association with an in utero infection that has become latent in the kidneys with very low levels of circulating virus at birth.

Space-time clustering patterns in childhood solid tumours other than central nervous system tumours

The aetiology of most childhood solid tumours (other than central nervous system [CNS] tumours) is unclear. To investigate whether certain environmental exposures may be involved, we have analysed for space-time clustering using population-based data from North West England for the period 1954-98. Knox tests for space-time interactions between cases were applied with fixed thresholds of close in space, <5 km, and close in time, <1 year apart. Addresses at birth and at diagnosis were used. Tests were repeated replacing geographical distance with distance to the Nth nearest neighbour. N was chosen such that the mean distance was 5 km. Data were also examined by a second order procedure based on K-functions. There was significant evidence of space-time clustering for Wilms' tumours (p = 0.03 and 0.04, using the geographical distance and nearest neighbour versions of the Knox test; and p = 0.07 and 0.03, using the geographical distance and nearest neighbour versions of the K-function method), and soft tissue sarcomas (p = 0.01, using both the geographical distance and nearest neighbour versions of the Knox test; and p = 0.001 and 0.002, using the geographical distance and nearest neighbour versions of the K-function method) based on time and location at birth, but not time and location at diagnosis. There was little or no evidence of space-time clustering amongst other diagnostic groups. These are the first results to demonstrate space-time clustering for childhood Wilms' tumours and soft tissue sarcomas. The results are consistent with environmental exposure hypotheses, relating to locations pre-natally or peri-natally.

Space-time clustering analyses of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia by immunophenotype

Space-time clustering analyses of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in children, by immunophenotype, were carried out using a population-based registry. Significant evidence was found of space-time clustering for cases of the precursor B-cell sub-type, in the childhood peak, based on time and location at birth.

Space-time clustering of childhood Type 1 diabetes in Devon and Cornwall, England

AIMS

Several studies on space-time clustering have been reported in childhood diabetes, but the findings are conflicting. The present study was undertaken to examine whether such clustering could be detected at either birth or the time of diagnosis in the far South-west of England.

METHODS

A cohort of 518 children aged 0-15 years and diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes from 1975 to 1996 contained in the population-based Cornwall and Plymouth Children's Diabetes Register (CPCDR) were included in the analyses. The case ascertainment for this register is estimated to be 94.4% complete. Mantel's modification of Knox's method was employed. A method based on K-function was also used, for the first time, to investigate the space-time clustering of diabetes.

RESULTS

Significant space-time clustering at diagnosis was found by the Knox's test in the following combinations of critical cut-off thresholds: 25, 35 and 50 km and 90, 270 and 360 days (all P < 0.05), with the highest significance found at 35 km and 360 days (P = 0.0011). K-function analysis also confirmed the overall clustering (P = 0.013).

CONCLUSIONS

There is strong evidence of space-time clustering in the onset of childhood Type 1 diabetes in Devon and Cornwall, England. These results lend some support to the hypothesis that viral infections and some unknown localized environmental factors play a role in the development of childhood Type 1 diabetes.

An infectious aetiology for childhood brain tumours? Evidence from space-time clustering and seasonality analyses

To investigate whether infections or other environmental exposures may be involved in the aetiology of childhood central nervous system tumours, we have analysed for space-time clustering and seasonality using population-based data from the North West of England for the period 1954 to 1998. Knox tests for space-time interactions between cases were applied with fixed thresholds of close in space, <5 km, and close in time, <1 year apart. Addresses at birth and diagnosis were used. Tests were repeated replacing geographical distance with distance to the Nth nearest neighbour. N was chosen such that the mean distance was 5 km. Data were also examined by a second order procedure based on K-functions. Tests for heterogeneity and Edwards' test for sinusoidal variation were applied to examine changes of incidence with month of birth or diagnosis. There was strong evidence of space-time clustering, particularly involving cases of astrocytoma and ependymoma. Analyses of seasonal variation showed excesses of cases born in the late Autumn or Winter. Results are consistent with a role for infections in a proportion of cases from these diagnostic groups. Further studies are needed to identify putative infectious agents.

Examination of temporal trends in the incidence of childhood leukaemias and lymphomas provides aetiological clues

The age-sex distributions and temporal trends in incidence of leukaemia and lymphoma from the Manchester Children's Tumour Registry (MCTR), 1954-1998, are reported. This 45-year study includes 1795 children, all of whom had a histologically and/or cytologically verified leukaemia or lymphoma. At the time of their diagnoses all the children were under 15 years of age and were resident in a geographically defined area of northwest England covered by the MCTR. Log-linear modelling identified significant linear increases in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) (average annual increase 0.7%; P= 0.005) and in Hodgkin's disease (HD) (1.2%, P=0.04), but not in acute myeloid leukaemia (AML), nor in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). The increase in ALL was most pronounced amongst males, aged 1-4 years, and is likely to be due to precursor B-cell leukaemias. The increases in ALL and HD are discussed in relation to current hypotheses suggesting a role for infection. Additionally, a non-linear cohort effect was identified for NHL (P= 0.008), which may indicate the involvement of environmental factors other than infection.

Screening for herpesvirus genomes in common acute lymphoblastic leukemia

There is epidemiological evidence that infection may play a role in the etiology of childhood leukemia in particular common B cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia. A panel of 20 leukemic samples (panel 1) was examined for the presence of four lymphotropic herpesviruses using conventional molecular techniques. A second independent panel of 27 leukemic samples (panel 2), along with 28 control peripheral blood samples from children with other forms of cancer, was tested for the presence of the same four viruses using sensitive real-time quantitative PCR. While herpesvirus genomes were detected, they were present at very low levels; detection rates and levels were similar in the leukemic and control panels. In addition we surveyed 18 leukemic samples (five from panel 1, six from panel 2 and a further seven samples not previously analyzed) using a degenerate PCR assay capable of detecting the genomes of known herpesviruses plus putative new members of the family. No novel herpesvirus genomes were detected suggesting that a herpesvirus is unlikely to be etiologically involved as a transforming agent in common acute lymphoblastic leukemia.