Clinical Complexity Domains, Anticoagulation, and Outcomes in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: A Report from the GLORIA-AF Registry Phase II and III

Residual Risks of Thrombotic Complications in Anticoagulated Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: A Cluster Analysis Approach from the GLORIA-AF Registry

BACKGROUND

Assessment of residual thromboembolic risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) prescribed oral anticoagulants (OACs) remains unexplored. We performed hierarchical cluster analysis to identify phenotypic profiles of these patients and their risks of residual thromboembolic events.

METHODS

We utilised data from non-valvular AF patients on OACs, as documented in phases II and III of the GLORIA-AF (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Anti-thrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation) registry. We performed a hierarchical cluster analysis to identify distinct phenotypic profiles. We compared the incidence and risks of thromboembolic events (composite of ischaemic stroke, transient ischaemic attack, or systemic embolism) and related outcomes (major bleeding and all-cause death) across the profiles. We determined the optimal number of profiles through visual inspection of the generated dendrograms.

RESULTS

We included 22,410 patients (mean age 70 ± 8 years; 56% male), from which five phenotypes were identified: profile 1 ("uncontrolled hypertension"), profile 2 ("young with a history of coronary artery disease"), profile 3 ("young and obese"), profile 4 ("frailty"), and profile 5 ("non-paroxysmal AF with tachycardia"). Profile 4 was associated with the highest rates of thromboembolic events (1.66/100 person-years [95% confidence interval, 1.46-1.89]), major bleeding (1.92/100 person-years [1.70-2.16]), and death (6.02/100 person-years [5.62-6.43]). Profile 3 was associated with the lowest risk across all measured outcomes (thromboembolic events, 0.64 events/100 person-years [0.48-0.82]; major bleeding, 0.83 events/100 person-years [0.65-1.04]; and death, 1.44 events/100 person-years [1.21-1.71]). Profile 1 had a moderate thromboembolic event rate (1.04/100 person-years [0.91-1.08]), while profiles 2 and 5 showed lower rates.

CONCLUSIONS

The phenotypic profiles of patients with AF prescribed OACs identified using hierarchical cluster analysis are associated with distinct residual thromboembolic risks and related outcomes. This approach has the potential to enhance patient risk-stratification and holistic approaches to management.

Efficacy of the ABC Pathway for Integrated Care Across Phenotypes of Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: A Latent-Class Analysis Report from the mAFA-II Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

The mAFA-II cluster randomised trial demonstrated the efficacy of a mobile health-technology implemented 'Atrial fibrillation Better Care' (ABC) pathway (mAFA intervention) for integrated care management of patients with AF.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effect of mAFA intervention across phenotypes of patients with AF.

DESIGN

We conducted a latent-class analysis (LCA) according to eight variables, including age and comorbidities.

PARTICIPANTS

The mAFA-II trial enrolled AF patients between June 2018 and August 2019 across 40 centres in China.

MAIN MEASURES

We evaluated the interaction between the groups identified through LCA, and the effect of mAFA intervention on the risk of the primary composite outcome of all-cause death, stroke/thromboembolism, and rehospitalisations. Results were expressed as adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

KEY RESULTS

Across the 3324 patients included in the trial (mean age 68.5 ± 13.9 years, 38.0% females), we identified three phenotypes: (i) low morbidity phenotype (n = 1234, 37.1%), (ii) hypertensive/coronary artery disease (CAD) phenotype (n = 1534, 46.2%), and (iii) mixed morbidity phenotype (n = 556, 16.7%). The effect of mAFA intervention on the primary outcome appeared greater in the low morbidity phenotype (aHR, 0.08; 95% CI 0.02-0.33) compared to the hypertensive/CAD (aHR, 0.30; 95% CI 0.16-0.58) and the mixed morbidity phenotype (aHR, 0.68; 95% CI 0.37-1.24), with a statistically significant interaction (pint = 0.004).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with AF, the ABC pathway improved prognosis across different comorbidity phenotypes, although with some differences in the magnitude of risk reduction. Patients with more complex phenotypes require further efforts to improve their outcomes, considering their high baseline risk of adverse events.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) Registration number: ChiCTR-OOC-17014138.

Latent Class Analysis for the Identification of Phenotypes Associated with Increased Risk in Atrial Fibrillation Patients: The COOL-AF Registry

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) often have clinical complexity phenotypes. Latent class analysis (LCA) is based on the concept of modeling of both observed and unobserved (latent) variables. We hypothesized that LCA can help in identification of AF patient groups with different risk profiles and identify patients who benefit most from the Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway.We studied non-valvular AF patients in the prospective multicenter COOL-AF registry. The outcomes were all-cause death, ischemic stroke/systemic embolism (SSE), major bleeding, and heart failure. Components of CHA2DS2-VASc score, HAS-BLED score, and ABC pathway were recorded.A total of 3,405 patients were studied. We identified 3 LCA groups from 42 variables: LCA class 1 (n = 1,238), LCA class 2 (n = 1,790), and LCA class 3 (n = 377). Overall, the incidence rates of composite outcomes, death, SSE, major bleeding, and heart failure were 8.69, 4.21, 1.51, 2.27, and 2.84 per 100 person-years, respectively. When compared to LCA class 1, hazard ratios (HR) of composite outcome of LCA classes 3 and 2 were 3.86 (3.06-4.86) and 2.31 (1.91-2.79), respectively. ABC pathway compliance was associated with better outcomes in LCA classes 2 and 3 with the HR of 0.63 (0.51-0.76) and 0.57 (0.39-0.84), but not in LCA class 1.LCA can identify patients who are at risk of developing adverse clinical outcomes. The implementation of holistic management based on the ABC pathway was associated with a reduction in the composite outcomes as well as the individual outcomes.

The Prevalence and Impact of Atrial Fibrillation on Patients with Chronic Total Occlusions: Insights from the National Inpatient Sample

The impact of atrial fibrillation (AF) on patients with chronic total occlusions (CTOs) at the national level remains unclear. In this study, we conducted a retrospective analysis of data from the National Inpatient Sample to assess the characteristics and in-hospital outcomes of patients with CTO based on the presence or absence of AF. Multiple logistic and linear regressions examined factors associated with AF and evaluated its impact on length of stay (LoS), cost, and mortality. The analysis included 480,180 patients diagnosed with CTO, with AF present in 28.0% of cases. Patients with CTOs and AF were older (median age 73 vs. 66 years, p < 0.001) and exhibited lower female representation (25.0% vs. 27.9%, p < 0.001). Factors most strongly associated with AF included previous heart failure (OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.92-2.05, p < 0.001), liver disease (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.27-1.48, p < 0.001), and obesity (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.20-1.30, p < 0.001). AF correlated with increased in-hospital mortality (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.18-1.40, p < 0.001), ischemic stroke (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.13-1.42, p < 0.001), and major bleeding (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.30-1.46). Moreover, AF was associated with a longer LoS (coef 1.58, 95% CI 1.50 to 1.67, p < 0.001) and higher in-hospital costs (coef 6.22, 95% CI 5.81 to 6.63, p < 0.001). Patients with CTOs and AF were older and had more underlying health problems compared to patients without AF. The patients with AF have worse outcomes in terms of mortality, ischemic stroke, major bleeding, length of stay, and costs.

Association of comorbidity patterns with outcomes and relation with the ABC pathway effectiveness in European patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) show increasingly complex comorbidity profiles, with detrimental effects on prognosis.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to explore patterns of comorbidities in patients with AF.

METHODS

From a European-wide prospective observational registry of AF patients, we performed a latent class analysis to identify patterns of comorbidities. We analyzed association with use of oral anticoagulant (OAC) and with clinical outcomes at 2 years. Primary outcome was a composite of all-cause mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events. Association of the Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway on the risk of primary outcome across groups was also assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 9613 AF patients were included (mean age 68.9 ± 11.4 years, 40.2% female). We identified 5 comorbidity patterns, with increasing clinical complexity phenotypes: low morbidity (46.1%), cardiovascular (25.0%), metabolic (11.3%), "heart failure" (9.7%), and multisystemic pattern (8.0%). OACs were less used in the "heart failure" and multisystemic patterns (odd ratio [OR] 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.53-0.90; and OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.26-0.50, respectively), and more used in the metabolic pattern (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.06-1.86). Compared with the low-morbidity phenotype, all other patterns except for the metabolic pattern were associated with hazard of the primary outcome, with highest magnitude observed for the "heart failure" (hazard ratio [HR] 2.18, 95% CI 1.74-2.72) and multisystemic patterns (HR 2.14, 95% CI 1.62-2.82). Adherence to the ABC pathway was similarly associated with reduced hazard of the primary outcome across all groups (P for interaction = .885).

CONCLUSION

Comorbidities patterns are heterogeneously associated with treatment and prognosis in AF patients. Adherence to the ABC integrated pathway showed similar association with outcomes across all comorbidity patterns.

Increasing Very Low-Dose Edoxaban Prescription: Effectiveness and Safety Data of Korean AF Patients

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Evidence remains limited on the real-world prescription of very low-dose oral anticoagulation among frail patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We described the practice patterns, effectiveness, and safety of very low-dose edoxaban (15 mg once daily).

METHODS

Patients with AF prescribed edoxaban 15 mg once daily in 2 tertiary hospitals between 2016 and September 2022 were included. Baseline clinical characteristics and clinical outcomes of interest were thromboembolic and bleeding events.

RESULTS

A total of 674 patients were included (mean age 78.3±9.1, 49.7% aged ≥80 years, 49.3% women, median follow-up 1.0±1.2 years). Mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.9±1.6, and the modified HAS-BLED score was 2.0±1.1. Between 2016 and 2022, the number of very low-dose edoxaban prescriptions increased. The main reasons for the prescription of very low-dose were low body weight (55.5% below 60 kg), anaemia (62.8%), chronic kidney disease (40.2%), active cancer (15.3%), concomitant anti-platelet use (26.7%), and prior major bleeding (19.7%). During a median follow-up duration of 8 (interquartile range 3-16) months, overall thromboembolic and bleeding events occurred in 16 (2.3%) and 88 (13.1%) patients, respectively. Compared to the expected event rates on the established risk scoring systems, patients receiving very low-dose edoxaban demonstrated a 61% reduction in ischemic stroke, a 68% reduction of ischemic stroke/transient ischemic attack/systemic embolism, whereas a 49% increase in major bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

The prescription of very low-dose edoxaban was increased over time, attributable to various clinical factors. The use of very low-dose edoxaban reduced the expected risk of thromboembolic events.

Early statin use is associated with improved survival and cardiovascular outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation and recent ischaemic stroke: A propensity-matched analysis of a global federated health database

INTRODUCTION

Statins reduce recurrent stroke and cardiovascular events in patients with non-cardioembolic stroke. The benefits of statins in patients with AF and recent IS remain unclear. We aimed to investigate the benefits of statins in patients with AF and recent IS.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This retrospective, cohort study was conducted using deidentified electronic medical records within TriNetX platform. Patients with AF and recent IS, who received statins within 28 days of their index stroke were propensity score-matched with those who did not. Patients were followed up for up to 2 years. Primary outcomes were the 2-year risk of recurrent IS, all-cause mortality and the composite outcome of all-cause mortality, recurrent IS, transient ischaemic attack (TIA), and acute myocardial infarction (MI). Secondary outcomes were the 2-year risk of TIA, intracranial haemorrhage (ICH), acute MI, and hospital readmission. Cox regression analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI).

RESULTS

Of 20,902 patients with AF and recent IS, 7500 (35.9%) received statins within 28 days of their stroke and 13,402 (64.1%) did not. 11,182 patients (mean age 73.7 ± 11.5; 5277 (47.2%) female) remained after propensity score matching. Patients who received early statins had significantly lower risk of recurrent IS (HR: 0.45, 95%CI: 0.41-0.48, p < 0.001), mortality (HR: 0.75, 95%CI: 0.66-0.84, p < 0.001), the composite outcome (HR: 0.48, 95%CI: 0.45-0.52, p < 0.001), TIA (HR: 0.37, 95%CI: 0.30-0.44, p < 0.001), ICH (HR: 0.59, 95%CI: 0.47-0.72, p < 0.001 ), acute MI (HR: 0.35, 95%CI: 0.30-0.42, p < 0.001) and hospital readmission (HR: 0.46, 95%CI: 0.42-0.50, <0.001). Beneficial effects of early statins were evident in the elderly, different ethnic groups, statin dose intensity, and AF subtypes, large vessel occlusion and embolic strokes and within the context of statin lipophilicity, optimal LDL-cholesterol levels, various cardiovascular comorbidities, treatment with intravenous thrombolysis or endovascular thrombectomy, and NIHSS 0-5 and NIHSS > 5 subgroups.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Patients with AF and recent IS, who received early statins, had a lower risk of recurrent stroke, death, and other cardiovascular outcomes including ICH, compared to those who did not.

Comorbidity patterns and the risk of injurious falls in older people with atrial fibrillation: Findings from a Swedish nation-wide population-based study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased fall risk, partly due to AF-related comorbidities. We investigated the impact of different comorbidity patterns on fall risk in older adults with AF.

METHODS

Using the Swedish National Patient Register, we identified 203,042 adults (45 % females) with AF and at least one comorbidity, aged 65 years or older, on 01/01/2017. The primary study outcome was any fall requiring medical attention. Secondary outcomes were falls with fractures, falls with hip fractures, and falls with head trauma. Comorbidity patterns were identified through latent class analysis, and their association with 3-year fall risk was tested through Cox regressions.

RESULTS

The sample mean age was 79.6 (SD: 7.9) years, and the mean number of chronic diseases was 6.6 (SD 3.2). We identified one unspecific (34.2 %) and six specific comorbidity patterns characterized by neuropsychiatric (6.6 %), eye (17.4 %), musculoskeletal (7.2 %), metabolic (15.8 %), cardiovascular (7.4 %), and complex (11.3 %) chronic conditions coexisting with AF. Older adults with AF and complex (HR=1.63, 95 %CI: 1.56-1.70), neuropsychiatric (HR=1.48, 95 %CI: 1.41-1.56), cardiovascular (HR=1.21, 95 %CI: 1.15-1.27), eye (HR=1.16, 95 %CI: 1.12-1.20), and musculoskeletal (HR=1.07, 95 %CI: 1.01-1.13) comorbidity had an increased fall risk compared to those with unspecific comorbidity. The highest risk of falls with fractures or head trauma was found in older adults displaying a complex or neuropsychiatric disease pattern, respectively. Higher estimates emerged in males and those aged <80 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Evaluating comorbidity patterns in older AF patients could help stratify the risk of falls in this population and support targeted preventive interventions.

Long-term risks and benefits of oral anticoagulation in atrial fibrillation patients with cancer: A report from the GLORIA-AF registry

BACKGROUND

Anticoagulation therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and concomitant cancer can be challenging due to the significantly increased risk of both embolism and bleeding. Moreover, the benefits and risks of vitamin K antagonists (VKA, eg. warfarin) versus non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) in such patients are less well understood.

METHODS

From the prospective, global, multi-centered Global Registry on Long-Term Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation (GLORIA-AF), we characterized these patients according to their history of prior cancer when enrolled. All patients received anticoagulant therapy. The primary outcome was the composite of all-cause mortality, stroke, transient ischemic attack, systemic embolism. The secondary endpoints were all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death, stroke, major bleeding and thromboembolism during the 3 years follow-up period. Cox regression analyses were used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and confidence interval (CI) following propensity score matching (PSM).

RESULTS

Overall, among 16,700 patients enrolled in Phase III in GLORIA-AF, 1725 (10%) patients had concomitant cancer(s) at enrolment. After PSM, the primary outcome occurred in 250 (14.8%) of patients with cancer(s) and 160 (9.3%) without cancer(s) (HR, 1.62 [95% CI, 1.33-1.97], p < .001) during the 3 years follow-up period. The risk of all-cause mortality was significantly higher in patients with cancer(s) versus non- cancer(s) (HR, 1.71 [95% CI, 1.37-2.12], p < .001). In patients with cancer(s), after PSM, the use of NOACs was associated with reduced risk of the primary outcome compared with that of VKA (HR, .69 [95% CI, .49-.99], p = .043), as well as a lower risk of thromboembolism (HR, .49 [95% CI, .24-1.00], p = .051), but the risk of major bleeding was not significantly different (HR, .87 [95% CI, .48-1.56], p = .635). Subgroup analysis in patients with cancers showed a reduced risk of major bleeding with NOACs compared with VKA (HR, .18 [95% CI, .04-.8], p = .024) in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). For the main cancer subtypes (genitourinary, breast, gastrointestinal, haematological and skin), the trends for the risk of primary outcome were consistently favouring NOACs compared with VKA without any significant interaction among these five cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Cancer is a common comorbidity in patients with AF and is associated with increased risk of composite of all-cause mortality and thromboembolism. Compared with VKA, NOACs was associated with a lower risk of composite events and showed an advantage in lower risk of thromboembolism, as well as a reduced risk of major bleeding when CAD was also present.

Comparative safety and effectiveness of oral anticoagulants in key subgroups of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation and at high risk of gastrointestinal bleeding: A cohort study based on the French National Health Data System (SNDS)

BACKGROUND

Risk factors and comorbidities can complicate management of non-valvular atrial fibrillation. We describe and compare real-world safety and effectiveness of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs; apixaban, rivaroxaban, dabigatran) and vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) in subgroups of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation at high risk for gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, utilizing data from a national quasi-exhaustive French database.

METHODS

Anticoagulant-naïve adults with non-valvular atrial fibrillation with ≥1 gastrointestinal bleeding risk factor, initiating anticoagulant treatment January 2016-December 2019, and covered by the French national health data system were eligible. The following subgroups were evaluated: patients age ≥75 years, receiving concomitant medications, HAS-BLED score ≥3, and chronic kidney disease stage 3-4. Outcomes included major bleeding and stroke/systemic embolism. Patient characteristics were balanced using propensity score matching.

RESULTS

A total of 314,184 patients were identified; characteristics were similar for propensity score-matched subgroups in VKA/DOAC and DOAC/DOAC comparisons. DOACs showed lower risk of major bleeding versus VKAs in all subgroups evaluated (p<0.0001 for all). Apixaban showed lower risk of major bleeding and gastrointestinal bleeding versus rivaroxaban in all subgroups (p≤0.05 for all) and versus dabigatran in elderly patients, patients with HAS-BLED score ≥3, and those receiving concomitant medications (p<0.05 for all). Stroke/systemic embolism risk was lower with apixaban versus rivaroxaban in elderly patients, those with HAS-BLED ≥3, and those receiving concomitant medications; risks were similar for other comparisons.

CONCLUSIONS

DOACs were associated with improved safety and effectiveness when compared to VKAs among subgroups of non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients at high risk of gastrointestinal bleeding. Apixaban was associated with lower risks of major bleeding, gastrointestinal bleeding, and stroke/systemic embolism versus rivaroxaban as well as lower risk of major bleeding, gastrointestinal bleeding bleed and similar risk of stroke/systemic embolism versus dabigatran among several of these patient subgroups.

Number of Previous Strokes and the Association With Clinical Outcomes of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Longitudinal Data From the GLORIA-AF Registry

BACKGROUND

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who suffered a previous stroke are at increased risk of recurrent thromboembolic events and other major outcomes. The impact of the number of stroke episodes on the natural history of patients with AF is still unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using data from the international, multicenter, and prospective GLORIA-AF (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation) Registry Phase III, we categorized patients with a recent diagnosis of non-valvular AF according to the number of previous strokes (either 0, 1, or ≥2 episodes). We analyzed use of oral anticoagulants through multiple logistic regression model, and risk of major outcomes using multiple Cox-regression models; our primary outcome was all-cause death. Among 21 223 patients (mean age: 70.2±10.3 years; 44.9% female) included, 2251 (10.6%) had a previous history of stroke, and 216 (1.0%) had ≥2 or more strokes. Oral anticoagulants were used in ≥80% of patients regardless of the numbers of previous stroke, although those with 1 (versus >1) prior stroke showed lower odds of receiving oral anticoagulants (odds ratio [95% CI]: 0.83 [0.73-0.94]). During 3-years follow-up, the risk of all-cause mortality increased with the number of previous strokes (hazard ratio [95% CI]: 1.46 [1.28-1.67] and 2.43 [1.79-3.29] for 1 versus 0 and ≥2 versus 0 previous strokes, respectively). Similar results were observed for other secondary outcomes, including thromboembolism, but not for major bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

History of stroke still represents a key risk factor in patients with AF. Patients who suffered more than 1 episodes of stroke had significantly worse prognosis and further efforts may be required to improve their clinical outcomes.

Treatment appropriateness of direct oral anticoagulants in patients with atrial fibrillation for stroke prevention: A real-world prospective study

INTRODUCTION

Inappropriate use of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) is common, affecting up to 30% of atrial fibrillation (AF) population receiving treatment for stroke prevention. This study assessed appropriateness of anticoagulation in anticoagulation-naive AF patients treated with DOACs during a 12-month prospective follow-up.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included all anticoagulation-naive AF patients referred for anticoagulation for stroke prevention at a tertiary cardiovascular center. Participants were prospectively followed through phone call interviews by a dedicated nurse at 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months after enrollment.

RESULTS

Of 403 anticoagulation-naive AF patients, rivaroxaban was prescribed for 325 patients (80.7%) and apixaban for 78 (19.3%). Inappropriate therapy was observed in 23% (76/325) and 46% (36/78) of patients treated with rivaroxaban and apixaban, respectively. Undertreatment was predominant scenario for both drugs, detected in 78.5% (78/112) of patients treated inappropriately, and was more frequently observed with apixaban versus rivaroxaban (44.8% vs 16.3%). During 12 months, inappropriate treatment was corrected in only 13% of all patients. The multivariate regression model identified creatinine clearance ≤ 49 mL/min (odds ratio [OR], 2.17; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12 to 4.21), female sex (OR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.11 to 2.97), and age ≥ 80 years (OR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.22 to 2.83) as independent covariates associated with inappropriate dosing.

CONCLUSIONS

Inappropriate therapy with DOACs for stroke prevention in patients with AF is common, and the dosage were corrected in few patients during the 12-month follow-up. Our findings highlight the persistent lack of knowledge regarding appropriate DOAC dosage and need for continuous education.

Poor clinical outcomes associated to multimorbidity, frailty and malnutrition in patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) patients often present with a higher prevalence of comorbidities, frailty, and malnutrition. We investigated if multimorbidity, frailty and malnutrition were associated with clinical outcomes in patients with AF starting vitamin K antagonist (VKA) therapy.

METHODS

Prospective observational cohort study including AF outpatients starting VKAs from July 2016 to June 2018. Multimorbidity was assessed by the number of comorbidities, frailty was evaluated using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), and nutritional status was appraised using the Controlling Nutritional Status (CONUT). During 2-years of follow-up, ischemic strokes/transient ischemic attacks (TIA), major bleeds, and all-cause deaths, were recorded.

RESULTS

1050 AF patients (51.4% female; median age 77 years, IQR 70-83) were included. Of these, 912 (86.9%) had multimorbidity (≥2 comorbidities additional to AF), 186 (17.7%) exhibited any frailty degree (CFS ≥ 5), and 76 (7.2%) had moderate-to-severe malnutrition (CONUT ≥ 5). The crude number of comorbidities and the CFS were significantly associated with major bleeds, whereas the CFS and the CONUT score were related to all-cause mortality. After adjustment, any frailty degree was associated with higher risks of major bleeding (aHR 3.04, 95% CI 1.67-5.52) and death (aHR 2.04, 95% CI 1.39-3.01). Moderate-to-severe malnutrition increased risk for ischemic stroke/TIA (aHR 2.25, 95% CI 1.11-4.56) and all-cause mortality (aHR 3.21, 95% CI 2.14-4.83).

CONCLUSIONS

In this real-world prospective cohort of AF taking VKAs, most patients had multiple comorbidities, frailty and malnutrition. Frailty and malnutrition were important risk factors for bleeding, stroke, and mortality in these patients.

Clinical phenotypes and outcomes of patients with left ventricular thrombus: an unsupervised cluster analysis

BACKGROUND

Left ventricular thrombus (LVT) can develop in a diverse group of patients with various underlying causes, resulting in divergent natural histories and trajectories with treatment. Our aim was to use cluster analysis to identify unique clinical profiles among patients with LVT and then compare their clinical characteristics, treatment strategies, and outcomes.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study involving 472 patients with LVT whose data were extracted from a tertiary center's echocardiography database, from March 2011 to January 2021. We used the TwoStep cluster analysis method, examining 19 variables.

RESULTS

Our analysis of the 472 patients with LVT revealed two distinct patient clusters. Cluster 1, comprising 247 individuals (52.3%), was characterized by younger patients with a lower incidence of traditional cardiovascular risk factors and relatively fewer comorbidities compared with Cluster 2. Most patients had LVT attributed to an underlying ischemic condition, with a larger proportion being due to post-acute myocardial infarction in Cluster 1 (68.8%), and due to ischemic cardiomyopathy in Cluster 2 (57.8%). Notably, patients in Cluster 2 exhibited a reduced likelihood of LVT resolution (hazard ratio [HR] 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.44-0.77, p < 0.001) and a higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR 2.27, 95% CI 1.43-3.60, p = 0.001). These associations persisted even after adjusting for variables such as anticoagulation treatment, the presence of left ventricular aneurysms, and specific LVT characteristics such as mobility, protrusion, and size.

CONCLUSION

Through TwoStep cluster analysis, we identified two distinct clinical phenotypes among patients with LVT, each distinguished by unique baseline clinical attributes and varying prognoses.

An International Consensus Practical Guide on Left Atrial Appendage Closure for the Non-implanting Physician: Executive Summary

Many patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who are in need of stroke prevention are not treated with oral anticoagulation or discontinue treatment shortly after its initiation. Despite the availability of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), such undertreatment has improved somewhat but is still evident. This is due to continued risks of bleeding events or ischemic strokes while on DOAC, poor treatment compliance, or aversion to anticoagulant therapy. Because of significant improvements in procedural safety over the years left atrial appendage closure (LAAC), using a catheter-based, device implantation approach, is increasingly favored for the prevention of thromboembolic events in AF patients who cannot have long-term oral anticoagulation. This article is an executive summary of a practical guide recently published by an international expert consensus group, which introduces the LAAC devices and briefly explains the implantation technique. The indications and device follow-up are more comprehensively described. This practical guide, aligned with published guideline/guidance, is aimed at those non-implanting physicians who may need to refer patients for consideration of LAAC.

A Breath of Trouble: Unraveling the Impact of Air Pollution on Atrial Fibrillation

Air pollution is a pervasive global challenge with profound implications for public health. This review explores the intricate relationship between air pollution and atrial fibrillation (AF), a prevalent cardiac arrhythmia associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Drawing on a comprehensive analysis of the existing literature, this review synthesizes current evidence linking various air pollutants, including particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and carbon monoxide, to the development and exacerbation of AF. The review delves into the role of air pollution as a global health issue alongside its specific sources, such as traffic-related emissions and industrial pollutants. It also examines the underlying mechanisms through which air pollution may contribute to the pathogenesis of AF, encompassing oxidative stress, inflammation, and autonomic nervous system dysregulation. In addition, it explores the impact of individual pollutants and the results of meta-analyses. It considers the results of vulnerable populations, including sex differences between the individuals and those with pre-existing cardiovascular conditions, who may be disproportionately affected. We also address critical research gaps in this area. Overall, air pollution has been increasingly recognized as a significant trigger for AF, with evidence linking exposure to particulate matter and gaseous pollutants to an increased incidence in short- as well as long-term exposure, highlighting the need for targeted public health interventions and further research to mitigate its cardiovascular impact.

Time to benefit and harm of direct oral anticoagulants in device-detected atrial fibrillation: A pooled analysis of the NOAH-AFNET 6 and ARTESiA trials

BACKGROUND

Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) reduce stroke risk in patients with device-detected atrial fibrillation (DD-AFib) but increase major bleeding risk. The time to benefit (TTB) and time to harm (TTH) are not well quantified.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to determine TTB and TTH in DOAC-treated patients with DD-AFib.

METHODS

Studies were identified from PubMed searching until November 2023. The primary efficacy outcome was the time to the first stroke event, and the primary safety outcome was the time to the first major bleeding event. Pooled hazard ratio (HR) and its confidence interval (CI) were calculated through reconstructed patient-level data and study-level data. Weibull model and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation were applied to determine time to specific absolute risk change thresholds.

RESULTS

Two trials involving DOACs-NOAH-AFNET 6 (Non-vitamin K antagonist Oral anticoagulants in patients with Atrial High rate episodes) and ARTESiA (Apixaban for the Reduction of Thrombo-Embolism in Patients With Device-Detected Sub-Clinical Atrial Fibrillation)-were identified, which randomized 6548 adults with a mean age of >75 years and a median atrial high-rate episode duration ranging from 1.5 to 2.8 hours. DOACs decreased the risk of stroke (HR 0.67; 95% CI 0.50-0.90) but increased the risk of major bleeding (HR 1.57; 95% CI 1.21-2.04). A TTB of 2.67 years was needed to prevent 1 stroke per 100 DOAC-treated patients, while a TTH of 1.67 years was needed to observe 1 major bleeding.

CONCLUSION

In elderly patients with low durations of DD-AFib, DOACs result in a delayed and restricted stroke-preventive benefit while posing an early-onset bleeding risk. Our findings offer new insights into the risk-benefit profile and provide clinicians an additional dimension to facilitate shared decision-making discussions with patients.

Adverse events in clinically complex elderly patients with atrial fibrillation according to oral anticoagulation status

Background

Few data are available about the impact of oral anticoagulants (OAC) in patients with Atrial Fibrillation (AF) and clinical complexity (CC).

Methods

We conducted a retrospective study utilising data from the TriNetX network. Based on ICD-10-CM codes entered between 2020 and 2022, AF patients aged ≥75 years on long-term OAC with CC were categorised into two groups based on OAC use in the year before entering the study (maintained vs discontinued). CC was defined as BMI ≤23 kg/m2, and/or history of bleeding, and/or chronic kidney disease. The primary outcomes were the one-year risk of all-cause death, major cardiovascular events (MACE), and major bleeding. Cox regression analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs before and after 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM).

Findings

We identified 6554 AF CC patients who discontinued OAC (mean age 81.5 ± 6.0 years, 46.7% females) and 23,212 AF patients with CC who maintained OAC (81.3 ± 6.0 years, 49.4% females). Before PSM, AF CC patients who discontinued OAC had a higher prevalence of intracranial, gastrointestinal haemorrhages, and antiplatelet use, with no significant differences after PSM. OAC discontinuation was associated with a higher risk of all-cause death (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.11-1.35) and MACE (HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.25-1.53). The one-year risk of major bleeding was similar in those who discontinued or maintained OAC (HR 1.05, 95% CI 0.94-1.18), although it was significantly higher during the early follow-up (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.24-1.83). The risk of primary outcomes decreased over time, with the risk of bleeding becoming not significant.

Interpretation

AF CC patients who discontinued OAC have a high risk of adverse events. New antithrombotic and integrated care approaches to reduce thrombotic risk without increasing bleeding risk are needed in these patients.

Funding

This study received no funding.

Relationship between systolic blood pressure and renal function on clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: a report from the prospective AF-GEN-UK Registry

BACKGROUND

Blood pressure (BP) extremes and renal (dys)function contribute to poor outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Using data from the prospective AF-GEN-UK study, we investigated the effect of systolic BP and interaction with renal function for prognostication.

METHODS

Baseline systolic BP (SBP) values were recorded for 1580 patients (mean [SD] age 71 [11] years, 60% male) and categorized as follows: 120-129 mmHg ( n  = 289, reference group) <110 mmHg ( n  = 165), 110-119 mmHg, ( n  = 254), 130-139 mmHg ( n  = 321), 140-159 mmHg ( n  = 385) and ≥160 mmHg ( n  = 166). Cox regression analysis, adjusted for age, oral anticoagulation (OAC) and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score established the impact of SBP, renal function and their interaction on 1-year outcomes. SBP groups were compared using ANOVA and chi-square tests.

RESULTS

OAC use was 84% and similar across SBP groups. Renal dysfunction [estimated baseline glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 ml/min] was present in 24%, with significantly lower eGFR values in the SBP 110-119 mmHg group. History of heart failure was significantly higher in those with SBP <110 mmHg. SBP <110 mmHg was predictive of all cause-death on univariate [hazard ratio (HR) 2.36, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-4.64] and adjusted (aHR 9.71, 95% CI 1.73-54.5) regression. There was no statistically significant interaction between SBP and eGFR, no associations of SBP with haemorrhagic or thromboembolic events.

CONCLUSIONS

In people with AF, SBP <110 mmHg was independently predictive of all-cause death, with no significant interaction between SBP and renal (dys)function. This may reflect general poor health and/or excessive antihypertensive therapy, which should be avoided.

Clinical Outcomes of Patients with Atrial Fibrillation who Survived from Bleeding Event: The Results from COOL-AF Thailand Registry

BACKGROUND

 Bleeding events are often reported among patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), irrespective of antithrombotic use. This study is to determine clinical outcomes of patients with AF who survived from bleeding event.

METHODS

 We analyzed data from COOL-AF (Cohort of Antithrombotic Use and Optimal International Normalized Ratio Levels in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation) Thailand registry. Outcomes of patients who experienced any bleeding were compared with patients who had never bleed. Time updated multivariate Cox-proportional hazard models were used to estimate the risk for clinical outcomes of patients with and without bleeding.

RESULTS

 Of total 3,405 patients (mean age: 67.8 ± 11.3 years; 41.9% female) in COOL-AF registry, 609 patients (17.9%) reported bleeding event occurs and 568 patients (93.3%) survived though hospital discharge. Patients who survived major bleeding (n = 126) were at increased risk for both death (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 4.44, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.91-6.75, p < 0.001) and stroke/systemic embolism (adjusted HR: 4.49, 95% CI: 2.19-9.24, p < 0.001). Minor bleeding also increased subsequent death (adjusted HR: 2.13, 95% CI: 1.56-2.90, p < 0.001). Up to 30% of patients who survived major bleeding and 6.3% of minor bleedings discontinued oral anticoagulation. Discontinuation was associated with very high death rate (42.1%), whereas patients who resumed oral anticoagulation after bleeding had lower mortality (10%). The most common causes of death in patients who survived a bleeding event were not related to cardiovascular causes nor bleeding.

CONCLUSION

 Patients with AF who have bleeding events have an increased risk for subsequent death and stroke and systemic embolism. These patients should be identified as vulnerable clinically complex patients and require a holistic approach to their AF management.

2024 Chinese Expert Consensus Guidelines on the Diagnosis and Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation in the Elderly, Endorsed by Geriatric Society of Chinese Medical Association (Cardiovascular Group) and Chinese Society of Geriatric Health Medicine (Cardiovascular Branch): Executive Summary

The consensus guidelines of the Geriatric Society of Chinese Medical Association on the management of atrial fibrillation (AF) in the elderly was first published in 2011 and updated in 2016, with endorsement by Chinese Society of Geriatric Health Medicine. Since then, many important studies regarding the screening and treatment in the elderly population have been reported, necessitating this updated expert consensus guideline. The writing committee members comprehensively reviewed updated evidence pertaining to elderly patients with AF, and formulated this 2024 update. The highlighted issues focused on the following: screening for AF, geriatric comprehensive assessment, use of the Atrial fibrillation Better Care (ABC) pathway for the elderly patients, and special clinical settings related to elderly patients with AF. New recommendations addressing smart technology facilitated AF screening, ABC pathway based management, and optimal anticoagulation were developed, with a focus on the elderly.

Global voices on atrial fibrillation care in China

An aging population, coupled with the high prevalence of physical inactivity, obesity, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus, has led to a significant increase in the incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in China. Managing clinical complexity of AF patients poses significant challenges. Current guidelines advocate for holistic or integrated management using the ABC (Atrial fibrillation Better Care) pathway. Compliance with the ABC pathway has demonstrated promising benefit in improving clinical outcomes. The mAFA II trial (the mHealth technology for improved screening, patient involvement, and optimized integrated care in Atrial Fibrillation) explores the potential of a mobile health technology-supported integrated care approach in reducing the risks of rehospitalization and clinical adverse events. However, disparities persist between urban and rural areas, with the likelihood of rural older individuals by themselves using intelligent devices being extremely low. Therefore, the application prospects of the mobile AF application strategy in rural areas are greatly limited. The ongoing MIRACLE-AF trial (A Novel Model of Integrated Care of Older Patients With Atrial Fibrillation in Rural China) aims to address unique healthcare challenges faced by rural older patients with AF through a novel integrated care model, which is led by village doctors and supported by a digital health platform. In conclusion, innovative integrated care approaches using digital technologies offer promising solutions to enhance AF care across diverse settings in China, catering to the needs of both urban and rural populations.

Patients with atrial fibrillation and common exclusion criteria from clinical trials are at high risk of clinical events: the Murcia AF Project II (MAFP-II) cohort study

BACKGROUND

Some clinical characteristics and comorbidities in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients are exclusion criteria in randomized clinical trials (RCTs) investigating oral anticoagulants (OAC). However, these conditions are present also in everyday clinical practice patients. We compared the risk of adverse clinical outcomes between patients with and without RCT exclusion criteria.

METHODS

The Murcia AF Project II was an observational cohort study including AF outpatients starting vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) from July 2016 to June 2018. For the selection of the exclusion criteria, the four pivotal RCTs of direct-acting OAC (DOACs) were used as reference. During 2 years, all ischemic strokes/transient ischemic attacks, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), major bleeds, and all-cause deaths were recorded.

RESULTS

1050 patients (51.5% female, median age 77 years) were included, of whom 368 (35%) met at least one exclusion criterion for RCTs. During follow-up, the incidence rate ratios for major bleeding, MACE and all-cause mortality were higher among patients with exclusion criteria (all p < 0.001). Patients fulfilling at least one exclusion criterion had increased risks of major bleeding (aHR 1.48; 95% CI 1.22-1.81; p < 0.001), MACE (aHR 1.51, 95% CI 1.10-2.09, p = 0.012), and mortality (aHR 3.22, 95% CI 2.32-4.48, p < 0.001), as well as a lower event-free survival (all log-rank p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In this AF cohort taking VKAs, more than one-third had at least one RCT exclusion criteria, which translates into higher risk of major bleeding, MACE, and death. These observations should be considered when translating RCTs results to AF patients for a proper and a more patient-centered management.

A Novel Model of Integrated Care of Older Patients With Atrial Fibrillation in Rural China

Background

An integrated management approach is essential to improving outcomes for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). China's rural health care system, primarily reliant on village doctors, falls short of providing optimal management of AF in rural populations with limited resources and access to health care. To support village doctors in providing integrated care for AF, we have developed a digital health support platform.

Objectives

This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of this telemedicine-based, village doctor-led, multifaceted care model.

Methods

The MIRACLE-AF (a novel Model of IntegRAted Care of oLdEr patients with Atrial Fibrillation in rural China) trial is a prospective cluster-randomized clinical trial. Thirty village clinics in Jiangdu County, Jiangsu Province, were randomly assigned to village doctor-led telemedicine integrated care or enhanced usual care in a 1:1 ratio. All the patients diagnosed with AF who resided in this rural area and were aged ≥65 years were eligible for enrollment. The primary outcome in stage 1 was the proportion of patients who met all 3 criteria for the atrial fibrillation better care pathway at 12 months, and in stage 2, a composite of cardiovascular death, all strokes including ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke, worsening of heart failure or acute coronary syndrome, and emergency visits due to AF over 36 months.

Results

In total, 1,039 participants were recruited from December 1, 2020, to May 9, 2022, with 524 in the telemedicine care arm and 515 in the enhanced usual care arm. All the enrolled patients are under scheduled follow-up.

Conclusions

The MIRACLE-AF trial will provide evidence for this novel integrated care model for treating rural older patients with AF. (New Model of Integrated Care of Older Patients with Atrial Fibrillation in Rural China; NCT04622514).

Potentially inappropriate prescribing in polymedicated older adults with atrial fibrillation and multimorbidity: a Swedish national register-based cohort study

Introduction

Current research on potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) in polymedicated older adults with atrial fibrillation (AF) and multimorbidity is predominantly focused on PIP of oral anticoagulants (OAC). Our study aimed to assess (i) the overall prevalence of PIP in older multimorbid adults with AF, (ii) potential associated factors of PIP, and (iii) the association of PIP with adverse health outcomes in a nationwide sample of Swedish older adults.

Methods

Swedish national registries were linked to establish a cohort with a 2-year follow-up of older adults (≥65y) who, on 1 January 2017, had a diagnosis of AF and had at least one comorbidity (n = 203,042). PIP was assessed using the reduced STOPP/START version 2 screening tool. The STOPP criteria identify potentially inappropriate prescribed medications (PIM), while the START criteria identify potential prescribing omissions (PPO). PIP is identified as having at least one PIM and/or PPO. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the association between PIP and adverse health outcomes: mortality, hospitalisation, stroke, bleeding, and falls.

Results

PIP was highly prevalent in older adults with AF, with both polypharmacy (69.6%) and excessive polypharmacy (85.9%). In the study population, benzodiazepines (22.9%), hypnotic Z-medications (17.8%) and analgesics (8.7%) were the most frequent PIM. Anticoagulants (34.3%), statins (11.1%), vitamin D and calcium (13.4%) were the most frequent PPO. Demographic factors and polypharmacy were associated with different PIM and PPO categories, with the nature of these associations differing based on the specific type of PIM and PPO. The co-occurrence of PIM and PPO, compared to appropriate prescribing, was associated with an increased risk of adverse health outcomes compared to all appropriately prescribed medications: cardiovascular (CV) (Hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval] = 1.97 [1.88-2.07]) and overall mortality (HR = 2.09 [2.03-2.16]), CV (HR = 1.34 [1.30-1.37]) and overall hospitalisation (HR = 1.48 [1.46-1.51]), stroke (HR = 1.93 [1.78-2.10]), bleeding (HR = 1.10 [1.01-1.21]), and falls (HR = 1.63 [1.56-1.71]).

Conclusion

The present study reports a high prevalence of PIP in multimorbid polymedicated older adults with AF. Additionally, a nuanced relationship between prescribing patterns, patient characteristics, and adverse health outcomes was observed. These findings emphasise the importance of implementing tailored interventions to optimise medication management in this patient population.

Clinical decisions for appropriate management of patients with atrial fibrillation

The management of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) requires intricate clinical decision-making to optimize outcomes. In everyday clinical practice, physicians undergo difficult choices to better manage patients with AF. They need to balance thromboembolic and bleeding risk to focus on patients' symptoms and to manage a variety of multiple comorbidities. In this review, we aimed to explore the multifaceted dimensions of clinical decision-making in AF patients, encompassing the definition and diagnosis of clinical AF, stroke risk stratification, oral anticoagulant therapy selection, consideration of bleeding risk, and the ongoing debate between rhythm and rate control strategies. We will also focus on possible grey zones for the management of AF patients. In navigating this intricate landscape, clinicians must reconcile the dynamic interplay of patient-specific factors, evolving guidelines, and emerging therapies. The review underscores the need for personalized, evidence-based clinical decision-making to tailor interventions for optimal outcomes according to specific AF patient profiles.

Anticoagulant therapy in renal insufficiency theme: Anticoagulation in complex situations

Many patients with impaired renal function have concurrent indications for anticoagulant therapy, including atrial fibrillation and venous thromboembolism. For mild chronic kidney disease, data from clinical trials and existing guidelines can be applied to clinical management. The benefits and harms of anticoagulation therapy in patients with more advanced renal impairment are nuanced, as both thrombotic and bleeding risk are increased. Until recently, data regarding anticoagulants in severe renal impairment were primarily observational, but emerging evidence includes a few small clinical trials and the emergence of novel agents hypothesized to have improved efficacy and safety in this population. In this review, we summarize existing data on anticoagulation in patients with chronic kidney disease. We suggest a framework for anticoagulation decision-making in the burgeoning worldwide population of patients with chronic kidney disease.

AI-based derivation of atrial fibrillation phenotypes in the general and critical care populations

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common heart arrhythmia worldwide and is linked to a higher risk of mortality and morbidity. To predict AF and AF-related complications, clinical risk scores are commonly employed, but their predictive accuracy is generally limited, given the inherent complexity and heterogeneity of patients with AF. By classifying different presentations of AF into coherent and manageable clinical phenotypes, the development of tailored prevention and treatment strategies can be facilitated. In this study, we propose an artificial intelligence (AI)-based methodology to derive meaningful clinical phenotypes of AF in the general and critical care populations.

METHODS

Our approach employs generative topographic mapping, a probabilistic machine learning method, to identify micro-clusters of patients with similar characteristics. It then identifies macro-cluster regions (clinical phenotypes) in the latent space using Ward's minimum variance method. We applied it to two large cohort databases (UK-Biobank and MIMIC-IV) representing general and critical care populations.

FINDINGS

The proposed methodology showed its ability to derive meaningful clinical phenotypes of AF. Because of its probabilistic foundations, it can enhance the robustness of patient stratification. It also produced interpretable visualisation of complex high-dimensional data, enhancing understanding of the derived phenotypes and their key characteristics. Using our methodology, we identified and characterised clinical phenotypes of AF across diverse patient populations.

INTERPRETATION

Our methodology is robust to noise, can uncover hidden patterns and subgroups, and can elucidate more specific patient profiles, contributing to more robust patient stratification, which could facilitate the tailoring of prevention and treatment programs specific to each phenotype. It can also be applied to other datasets to derive clinically meaningful phenotypes of other conditions.

FUNDING

This study was funded by the DECIPHER project (LJMU QR-PSF) and the EU project TARGET (10113624).

Machine learning approach for prediction of outcomes in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

The accuracy of available prediction tools for clinical outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) remains modest. Machine Learning (ML) has been used to predict outcomes in the AF population, but not in a population entirely on anticoagulant therapy.

METHODS AND AIMS

Different supervised ML models were applied to predict all-cause death, cardiovascular (CV) death, major bleeding and stroke in anticoagulated patients with AF, processing data from the multicenter START-2 Register.

RESULTS

11078 AF patients (male n = 6029, 54.3%) were enrolled with a median follow-up period of 1.5 years [IQR 1.0-2.6]. Patients on Vitamin K Antagonists (VKA) were 5135 (46.4%) and 5943 (53.6%) were on Direct Oral Anticoagulants (DOAC). Using Multi-Gate Mixture of Experts, a cross-validated AUC of 0.779 ± 0.016 and 0.745 ± 0.022 were obtained, respectively, for the prediction of all-cause death and CV-death in the overall population. The best ML model outperformed CHA2DSVA2SC and HAS-BLED for all-cause death prediction (p < 0.001 for both). When compared to HAS-BLED, Gradient Boosting improved major bleeding prediction in DOACs patients (0.711 vs. 0.586, p < 0.001). A very low number of events during follow-up (52) resulted in a suboptimal ischemic stroke prediction (best AUC of 0.606 ± 0.117 in overall population). Body mass index, age, renal function, platelet count and hemoglobin levels resulted the most important variables for ML prediction.

CONCLUSIONS

In AF patients, ML models showed good discriminative ability to predict all-cause death, regardless of the type of anticoagulation strategy, and major bleeding on DOAC therapy, outperforming CHA2DS2VASC and the HAS-BLED scores for risk prediction in these populations.

Association between changes in renal function and clinical outcomes in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation patients with marginal renal function. A nationwide observational cohort study

Background

Renal function is one of the crucial components for determining the dose and type of oral anticoagulants in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients, and is also closely associated with the risks of stroke and bleeding. This study aimed to assess renal function changes and their impact on clinical outcomes in anticoagulated AF patients with marginal renal function.

Methods

From a Korean claims database, patients with AF on anticoagulants and a baseline eGFR of 45 to <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 were studied. Patients were grouped by changes in renal function over two years-maintained, improved (eGFR >60 ml/min/1.73 m2), or worsened (eGFR <45 ml/min/1.73 m2)-the study analyzed outcomes including ischemic stroke, major bleeding, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), all-cause death, and a composite of clinical outcomes.

Results

A total of 5,126 patients were included in the study: 2,170 (42.3%) in the maintained group, 2,276 (44.4%) in the improved group, and 680 (13.1%) in the group with worsened renal function. The worsened group was older and had more prevalent comorbidities than other groups. After multivariable adjustment, the worsened group was associated with significantly higher risks of major bleeding (adjusted hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval; 1.46, 1.03-2.07, p = 0.035), ESRD (1.49, 1.24-1.80, p < 0.001), all-cause death (9.29, 4.92-17.6, p < 0.001), and the composite outcome (1.57, 1.36-1.83, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

In anticoagulated AF patients with marginal renal function, a substantial proportion of patients experienced renal function decline below eGFR 45 ml/min/1.73 m2 within 2 years. Renal function decline was associated with higher risks of major bleeding, ESRD, all-cause death, and the composite outcome compared to those who maintained their baseline renal function.

Clinical Outcomes in Metabolically Healthy and Unhealthy Obese and Overweight Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Findings From the GLORIA-AF Registry

OBJECTIVE

To explore the association between metabolic status, body mass index (BMI), and natural history of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).

METHODS

The global, prospective GLORIA-AF Registry Phase II and III included patients with recent diagnosis of AF between November 2011 and December 2014 for Phase II and between January 2014 and December 2016 for Phase III. With this analysis, we categorized patients with AF according to BMI (normal weight [18.5 to 24.9 kg/m2], overweight [25.0 to 29.9 kg/m2], obese [30.0 to 60.0 kg/m2]) and metabolic status (presence of hypertension, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia). We analyzed risk of major outcomes using multivariable Cox regression analyses; the primary outcome was the composite of all-cause death and major adverse cardiovascular events.

RESULTS

There were 24,828 (mean age, 70.1±10.3 years; 44.6% female) patients with AF included. Higher BMI was associated with metabolically unhealthy status and higher odds of receiving oral anticoagulants and other treatments. Normal-weight unhealthy patients showed a higher risk of the primary composite outcome (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.20; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.42) and thromboembolism, whereas a lower risk of cardiovascular death (aHR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.88) and major adverse cardiovascular events (aHR, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.93) was observed in metabolically healthy obese individuals. Unhealthy metabolic groups were also associated with increased risk of major bleeding (aHR, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.04 to 2.20] and aHR, 1.96 [95% CI, 1.34 to 2.85] in overweight and obese groups, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Increasing BMI was associated with poor metabolic status and with more intensive treatment. Prognosis was heterogeneous between BMI groups, with metabolically unhealthy patients showing higher risk of adverse events.

Oral anticoagulants and cognitive impairment in patients with atrial fibrillation: A systematic review with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis

BACKGROUND

This systematic review assesses the likelihood of developing dementia and cognitive impairment in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) receiving non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) as opposed to vitamin K antagonists (VKAs).

METHODS

We performed a systematic review with meta-analysis and trial sequential analysis (TSA), which encompassed both randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies. The objective was to assess the impact of NOACs and VKAs on the incidence of dementia in individuals diagnosed with AF.

RESULTS

Out of 1914 studies that were screened, 31 studies were included in the final analysis, which consisted of nine RCTs or their subsequent post-hoc analyses, in addition to 22 observational studies. The meta-analysis shows that NOACs were associated with a decreased probability of developing dementia of any cause [Rate Ratio (RR): 0.88; 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI): 0.82-0.94], especially in patients below the age of 75 (RR: 0.78; 95 % CI: 0.73-0.84). Consistent patterns were observed across all forms of dementia and cognitive function decline. The overall evidence indicates notable variability in the outcome with a moderate-to-low degree of certainty. The TSA suggests that the total sample size of the included trials (155,647 patients) was significantly smaller than the required information size of 784,692 patients to discern the true effect of NOAC versus VKA in terms of reducing dementia risk.

CONCLUSION

NOACs may reduce the likelihood of developing dementia in patients with AF, particularly in those under the age of 75. This review highlights the urgent necessity for thorough research to determine the efficacy of NOACs in safeguarding cognitive health.

Predicting multifaceted risks using machine learning in atrial fibrillation: insights from GLORIA-AF study

Aims

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have a higher risk of ischaemic stroke and death. While anticoagulants are effective at reducing these risks, they increase the risk of bleeding. Current clinical risk scores only perform modestly in predicting adverse outcomes, especially for the outcome of death. We aimed to test the multi-label gradient boosting decision tree (ML-GBDT) model in predicting risks for adverse outcomes in a prospective global AF registry.

Methods and results

We studied patients from phase II/III of the Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Anti-Thrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation registry between 2011 and 2020. The outcomes were all-cause death, ischaemic stroke, and major bleeding within 1 year following the AF. We trained the ML-GBDT model and compared its discrimination with the clinical scores in predicting patient outcomes. A total of 25 656 patients were included [mean age 70.3 years (SD 10.3); 44.8% female]. Within 1 year after AF, ischaemic stroke occurred in 215 (0.8%), major bleeding in 405 (1.6%), and death in 897 (3.5%) patients. Our model achieved an optimized area under the curve in predicting death (0.785, 95% CI: 0.757-0.813) compared with the Charlson Comorbidity Index (0.747, P = 0.007), ischaemic stroke (0.691, 0.626-0.756) compared with CHA2DS2-VASc (0.613, P = 0.028), and major bleeding (0.698, 0.651-0.745) as opposed to HAS-BLED (0.607, P = 0.002), with improvement in net reclassification index (10.0, 12.5, and 23.6%, respectively).

Conclusion

The ML-GBDT model outperformed clinical risk scores in predicting the risks in patients with AF. This approach could be used as a single multifaceted holistic tool to optimize patient risk assessment and mitigate adverse outcomes when managing AF.

Fibrinaloid Microclots and Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a comorbidity of a variety of other chronic, inflammatory diseases for which fibrinaloid microclots are a known accompaniment (and in some cases, a cause, with a mechanistic basis). Clots are, of course, a well-known consequence of atrial fibrillation. We here ask the question whether the fibrinaloid microclots seen in plasma or serum may in fact also be a cause of (or contributor to) the development of AF. We consider known 'risk factors' for AF, and in particular, exogenous stimuli such as infection and air pollution by particulates, both of which are known to cause AF. The external accompaniments of both bacterial (lipopolysaccharide and lipoteichoic acids) and viral (SARS-CoV-2 spike protein) infections are known to stimulate fibrinaloid microclots when added in vitro, and fibrinaloid microclots, as with other amyloid proteins, can be cytotoxic, both by inducing hypoxia/reperfusion and by other means. Strokes and thromboembolisms are also common consequences of AF. Consequently, taking a systems approach, we review the considerable evidence in detail, which leads us to suggest that it is likely that microclots may well have an aetiological role in the development of AF. This has significant mechanistic and therapeutic implications.

Comparing the Real-World and Clinical Trial Bleeding Rates Associated with Oral Anticoagulation Treatment for Atrial Fibrillation

Background The prevention of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) involves the use of oral anticoagulation, commonly in the form of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). However, it comes with an increased risk of bleeding, and therefore, counselling patients on their individual risks is important. Although the majority of patients initiated on DOACs have been represented within the clinical trials, some cohorts are under-represented in whom clinicians cannot practice evidence-based medicine. Methods Utilising the pooled clinical trial (CT) data sourced from Medidata Enterprise Data Store, five recent open-label industry-sponsored AF trials were compared with real-world data (RWD) sourced from the HealthVerity™ Marketplace with the occurrence of bleeding events as the primary outcome of interest. Results A total of 64,421 patients were included in the analysis, with 3207 patients from the clinical DOAC trials and 61,214 patients from the RWD cohort. Overall, the patients from the RWD cohort had more co-morbidities, were older (72.2 ± 11.9 vs. 65.3 ± 10.7 years old, p < 0.001), had higher mean CHA2DS2VASc (3.98 ± 1.9 vs. 2.87 ± 1.73, p < 0.001), and HAD-BLED scores (2.13 ± 1.02 vs. 1/04 ± 0.93, p < 0.001) when compared to the trial data. When comparing the incidence of the first major bleed at 12 months post-treatment initiation, rates in the RWD cohort were significantly higher (10.69 vs. 18.97 per 100 person-years). The impact of co-morbidities such as age, CHA2DS2VASc, and HAD-BLED scores was similar in both cohorts; however, there was an under-representation of older females and more co-morbid patients within the clinical trial cohort. Conclusions DOAC-treated patients have a higher bleeding incidence rate in the RWD cohort than in clinical trials. This can be explained by the older patient age group with more complex medical h istories and higher HAS-BLED scores. The under-representation of higher-risk patients and lower proportion of females within clinical trials should be addressed to better translate clinical trial data into real-world clinical practice.

Patterns of comorbidities in patients with atrial fibrillation and impact on management and long-term prognosis: an analysis from the Prospective Global GLORIA-AF Registry

BACKGROUND

Clinical complexity, as the interaction between ageing, frailty, multimorbidity and polypharmacy, is an increasing concern in patients with AF. There remains uncertainty regarding how combinations of comorbidities influence management and prognosis of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We aimed to identify phenotypes of AF patients according to comorbidities and to assess associations between comorbidity patterns, drug use and risk of major outcomes.

METHODS

From the prospective GLORIA-AF Registry, we performed a latent class analysis based on 18 diseases, encompassing cardiovascular, metabolic, respiratory and other conditions; we then analysed the association between phenotypes of patients and (i) treatments received and (ii) the risk of major outcomes. Primary outcome was the composite of all-cause death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Secondary exploratory outcomes were also analysed.

RESULTS

32,560 AF patients (mean age 70.0 ± 10.5 years, 45.4% females) were included. We identified 6 phenotypes: (i) low complexity (39.2% of patients); (ii) cardiovascular (CV) risk factors (28.2%); (iii) atherosclerotic (10.2%); (iv) thromboembolic (8.1%); (v) cardiometabolic (7.6%) and (vi) high complexity (6.6%). Higher use of oral anticoagulants was found in more complex groups, with highest magnitude observed for the cardiometabolic and high complexity phenotypes (odds ratio and 95% confidence interval CI): 1.76 [1.49-2.09] and 1.57 [1.35-1.81], respectively); similar results were observed for beta-blockers and verapamil or diltiazem. We found higher risk of the primary outcome in all phenotypes, except the CV risk factor one, with highest risk observed for the cardiometabolic and high complexity groups (hazard ratio and 95%CI: 1.37 [1.13-1.67] and 1.47 [1.24-1.75], respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Comorbidities influence management and long-term prognosis of patients with AF. Patients with complex phenotypes may require comprehensive and holistic approaches to improve their prognosis.

The Cost of Atrial Fibrillation: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common cardiac arrhythmia, with an increasing incidence and prevalence because of progressively aging populations. Costs related to AF are both direct and indirect. This systematic review aims to identify the main cost drivers of the illness, assess the potential economic impact resulting from changes in care strategies, and propose interventions where they are most needed.

METHODS

A systematic literature search of the PubMed and Scopus databases was performed to identify analytical observational studies defining the cost of illness in cases of AF. The search strategy was based on the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) 2020 recommendations.

RESULTS

Of the 944 articles retrieved, 24 met the inclusion criteria. These studies were conducted in several countries. All studies calculated the direct medical costs, whereas 8 of 24 studies assessed indirect costs. The median annual direct medical cost per patient, considering all studies, was €9409 (13 333 US dollars in purchasing power parities), with a very large variability due to the heterogeneity of different analyses. Hospitalization costs are generally the main cost drivers. Comorbidities and complications, such as stroke, considerably increase the average annual direct medical cost of AF.

CONCLUSIONS

In most of the analyzed studies, inpatient care cost represents the main component of the mean direct medical cost per patient. Stroke and heart failure are responsible for a large share of the total costs; therefore, implementing guidelines to manage comorbidities in AF is a necessary step to improve health and mitigate healthcare costs.

Effectiveness and safety of direct oral anticoagulation vs. warfarin in frail patients with atrial fibrillation

AIMS

Although frail patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) carry a high risk of stroke and treatment-related bleeding complications, evidence for the safety and effectiveness of anticoagulation remains sparse. This study investigated the effectiveness and safety of direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) vs. warfarin in frail AF patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Nationwide registry-based cohort study including 32 048 anticoagulation naïve frail patients (median age 80 years, 53% female) with incident AF during 2012-20. Frailty was assessed using the hospital frailty risk score. To address baseline confounding, we applied inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) and marginal structural models with weighted pooled regression to compute weighted hazard ratios (wHRs) and risk differences for thromboembolism and major bleeding comparing specific DOAC doses with warfarin. After AF diagnosis, 6747 (21.1%) initiated warfarin, 17 076 (50.3%) initiated standard-dose DOAC, and 9179 (28.6%) initiated reduced-dose DOAC. Comparative effectiveness analyses in the IPTW pseudo-populations revealed similar thromboembolism risk between standard-dose DOAC and warfarin [wHR 0.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.80-1.13] and between reduced-dose DOAC and warfarin (wHR 0.97, 95% CI 0.77-1.23). The 1-year thromboembolic event-free survival difference was -0.2% for DOAC, regardless of dosing, vs. warfarin. Major bleeding risk was significantly lower with standard-dose DOAC (wHR 0.69, 95% CI 0.59-0.87) and reduced-dose DOAC (wHR 0.67, 95% CI 0.55-0.81) vs. warfarin. The 1-year bleeding risk difference with DOAC ranged from -1.3% to -3.0%.

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate comparable thromboembolism risk and significantly lower bleeding risk with both standard and reduced DOAC regimens compared with warfarin in frail AF patients in routine care.