Improvement in long-term survival among patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction, 1970 to 1980. The Minnesota Heart Survey

Trading Off Longer Life for Worsening Health

This article demonstrates and explains why future declines in mortality will have a diminishing effect on the metric of life expectancy but a large impact on the size of future elderly cohorts. Additionally, the article addresses a hypothesis in which it is argued that morbidity and disability will decline and become compressed into a shorter duration of time before death. Although studies have demonstrated that declining mortality can lead to worsening health, what is missing from the literature is a formal mechanistic hypothesis that describes why this phenomenon takes place. Two primary mechanisms are identified. One is based on arguments in which medical technology is identified to improve the survival of those with disabling conditions; the other is that declining mortality from fatal diseases leads to a shift in the distribution of causes of disability from fatal to nonfatal diseases of aging. Procedures for testing this hypothesis are discussed.

Survey of the relationship between metabolic syndrome and myocardial infarction in hospitals of Urmia University of medical sciences

BACKGROUND & AIM

The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between metabolic syndrome and myocardial infarction in patients admitted to the hospitals of Urmia University of medical sciences.

METHODS

A case-control study population consisted of 172 patients with heart failure who were admitted to Seyedolshohada Hospital. In this method, the researchers present in the units and along with demographic questionnaire of patients, laboratory results needed for the survey (fasting blood glucose, triglycerides and HDL) with waist circumference size, blood pressure, height and weight were examined. Data after collection were analyzed using SPSS statistical software.

RESULTS

In this study of 172 patients with myocardial infarction, 56 patients (38.4%) patients were females and 112 (17.9%) were males. 1.2% of the patients were single, 84.8% were married, 0.6 were divorced and 13.5% were widowed, 116 patients (67.4%) with features of metabolic syndrome and 56 patients (32.6%) were lacking. In this study, females with myocardial infarction had more metabolic syndrome than males and in people whom relatives have a history of heart disease and also people who are overweight as well as obesity and also have features of metabolic syndrome and mean profiles of HDL, LDL, BMI, fasting blood glucose, triglyceride and waist circumference in males compared to males is higher. However, history of smoking, average number of cigarettes used per day, height and weight of males is higher than females. Other findings indicate a significant relationship between age and sex and having or not having a family history of heart failure, having or not having history of certain drugs and BMI of patient with metabolic syndrome. But a significant relationship was not found between the marital status, education, residence, income, previous history of heart disease, PCI, LDL, history of drug use, type of infarction, the extent of ejection and location with syndrome patients. In terms of survival, because none of the subjects in the study period had expired, this extent was not quantifiable.

CONCLUSION

Considering the high prevalence of this disorder in Iran and that the high incidence of serious effects imposes on the health care system and that these disorders are somewhat flexible, effort towards lifestyle changes particularly healthy diets, physical activity, weight management and blood pressure, especially in women should be considered. 

Predicting long-term mortality after a myocardial infarction from routine hospital data

Among 528 patients under 67 years of age discharged alive after a myocardial infarction (MI), the cumulative survival rates after 3, 5, and 7 years were 84.1%, 75.9% and 68.6%, respectively. Compared with the "normal" population, the relative mortality risk was 4.8 for the first year, 3.1 for the second, and on average 2.1 for the next 5 years. Significant age differences were not observed for relative mortality. A multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed long-term mortality to be independently related to higher age, a reduced working activity before the MI, previous cardiovascular disease, and a higher inhospital complication score, which was computed by summing eight defined clinical events weighted for severity. The results indicate that a reasonable prediction of long-term survival after a MI can be made from routine hospital data.

Trends in treated ventricular fibrillation in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: Ischemic compared to non-ischemic heart disease

BACKGROUND

The incidence of ventricular fibrillation (VF) out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) treated by first responders has declined over the past decade. Since VF OHCA occurs primarily in the setting of severe coronary artery disease, primary and secondary prevention strategies may in part account for the decline. However, such strategies may not have a similar impact on non-ischemic arrest.

METHODS

All Rochester Minnesota residents who presented with a VF OHCA from 1991 to 2004, treated by emergency medical services (EMS), were included in the study. Incidence rates were calculated based on the population for Rochester during the time period. Changes over time were tested using Poisson regression models. The significance of the trends was estimated according to the Mantel-Haenszel test for association, and two-tailed p-values reported.

RESULTS

The overall incidence of EMS-treated VF OHCA in Rochester during the study period was 10.6 per 100,000 (95% CI 9.1-11.8). The incidence decreased significantly (p<0.001) over the study period [1991-1994: 18.2/100,000 (95% CI 13.4-21.9); 1995-1999: 11.8/100,000 (95% CI 10.4-17.9); 2000-2004: 8.7/100,000 (95% CI 6.0-13.0)]. The incidence of VF OHCA with ischemic heart disease also declined [1991-1994: 13.4/100,000 (95% CI 8.9-16.9); 1995-1999: 11.1/100,000 (95% CI 8.2-15.9); 2000-2004: 5.5/100,000 (95% CI 3.8-8.2), p<0.001]. In contrast, the incidence VF OHCA with non-ischemic heart disease increased [1991-1994: 2.1/100,000 (95% CI 1.13-3.1); 1995-1999: 2.3/100,000 (95% CI 1.9-3.7); 2000-2004: 2.9/100,000 (95% CI 2.0-3.4), p<0.001].

CONCLUSION

The incidence of VF OHCA is declining. The decline is attributable to the reduction of VF cardiac arrest with ischemic heart disease; suggesting an impact of treatment strategies targeted at coronary artery disease. The relative increasing incidence of non-ischemic VF OHCA suggests that more efforts are required to minimize mortality in this cohort population.

Trends in treated ventricular fibrillation out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a 17-year population-based study

OBJECTIVES

The aims of this study were to describe the trends of ventricular fibrillation (VF) out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Rochester, Minnesota, since 1985 and to determine coexistent trends in implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) placement and termination of potentially lethal ventricular arrhythmias that might explain, at least in part, a declining incidence trend.

BACKGROUND

The incidence of VF out-of-hospital cardiac arrest treated by emergency medical services (EMS) personnel has declined over the past decade. Because VF out-of-hospital cardiac arrest occurs primarily in the setting of severe coronary artery disease, primary and secondary prevention strategies may account in part for the decline. In particular, ICD use in large primary and secondary prevention clinical trials in patients at high risk of sudden death has demonstrated that these devices improve survival.

METHODS

All residents of the City of Rochester, Minnesota, who presented with a VF out-of-hospital cardiac arrest from 1985 to 2002, identified and treated by EMS, were included in the study. In addition, residents of the City of Rochester who received their first ICD implant from 1989 to 2002 were identified. From the ICD records, general demographics, etiology of heart disease, comorbid medical disease, and indication for ICD placement were abstracted. Follow-up data obtained from this population included ICD shocks, the underlying rhythm disturbance, and death.

RESULTS

The overall incidence of EMS-treated VF out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in Rochester during the study period was 17.1 per 100,000 [95% confidence interval (CI) 15.1-19.4]. The incidence has decreased significantly (P < 0.001) over the study period: 1985-1989: 26.3/100,000 (95% CI 21.0-32.6), 1990-1994: 18.2/100,000 (95% CI 14.1-23.1), 1995-1999: 13.8/100,000 (95% CI 10.4-17.9), 2000-2002: 7.7/100,000 (95% CI 4.7-11.9). One hundred ten patients received an ICD. The placement of ICDs also has increased dramatically over the past 10 years: 1990-1994: 5.0/100,000 to 2000-2002: 20.7/100,000 (P < 0.001). ICDs terminated VF or fast ventricular tachycardia (<270 ms) in 22 patients. Termination of these potentially fatal arrhythmias has shown a trend toward an increase over the study period: 1990-1994: 1.1/100,000 to 2000-2002: 3.5/100,000 (P = 0.06).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of VF out-of-hospital cardiac arrest is declining. In contrast, the rates of ICD placement and ICD termination of ventricular tachycardia or VF are markedly increasing. Sudden death preventive strategies are multifactorial. These observations suggest that ICD termination of potentially lethal ventricular arrhythmias may contribute to the lower incidence of VF out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

Dissociation of hospitalization and mortality trends for myocardial infarction in the United States from 1988 to 1997

PURPOSE

Although age-adjusted mortality from myocardial infarction in the United States has declined during the past few decades, changes in the incidence of myocardial infarction are less certain. To address this issue, we evaluated trends in hospitalization for, and in-hospital mortality from, myocardial infarction from 1988 to 1997.

METHODS

Hospitalization rates were determined by age and sex using data from the National Hospital Discharge Survey and the Current Population Survey. Comorbid conditions, complications, use of cardiac procedures, and in-hospital mortality were measured. In-hospital mortality was estimated after adjusting for associated risk factors, complications, use of invasive diagnostic and therapeutic procedures, and length of stay.

RESULTS

Age-adjusted rates of hospitalization for myocardial infarction were 525 per 100,000 in 1988 and 482 per 100,000 in 1997, with a mean annual decline of 0.8% (P = 0.32). Mortality declined from 58 per 100,000 in 1988 to 40 per 100,000 in 1997, a mean annual decline of 4.2% (P = 0.01). During these 10 years, although the median hospital stay for myocardial infarction decreased from 8 to 5 days, the intensity of hospital care increased, including use of angiography from 20% to 31% (P = 0.04) and revascularization from 16% to 31% (P = 0.004). Age-adjusted in-hospital mortality decreased by nearly half, from 7.6% in 1988 to 3.9% in 1997 (P = 0.006).

CONCLUSION

During the past decade, the decline in mortality from myocardial infarction in the United States has not been accompanied by a decline in hospitalization rate. At the same time, there has been a marked increased in the use of cardiac revascularization.

Coronary disease surveillance in Olmsted County objectives and methodology

The community surveillance study of coronary heart disease (CHD) in Olmsted County, MN, is designed to estimate trends in myocardial infarction (MI) incidence, case fatality rate, and CHD mortality, while including all ages. A distinctive feature of this study is its ability to capture longitudinal data before and after index events via the medical record linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project. The goal of this report is to describe the methods implemented to measure CHD trends, the implications of including elderly individuals on MI ascertainment and trends in prior CHD among persons with incident MI. The methods are based on standardized criteria involving the review of death certificate information and hospital records to identify CHD deaths, and incident MIs in Olmsted County. The medical record linkage system in place under the auspices of the Rochester Epidemiology Project was used to ascertain antecedent CHD and outcomes. Hospitalized MIs were screened from sampled events coded ICD9 codes 410-414 and classified using enzyme values, cardiac pain, and ECG coding. After screening 5,042 records, a cohort of 1,658 validated incident MIs was assembled 35% (575) among persons aged 75 years or greater. The proportion of MIs validated with cardiac pain and enzymes without Minnesota ECG coding was lower among the elderly than among persons less than 75 years of age (35 vs. 29%, respectively; P <.001). The proportion of events validated without requiring ECG coding decreased over time in both age strata (P for trend.001). Reliability analyses indicated excellent agreement in event classification. More than half of the incident MIs did not have antecedent CHD, and this proportion increased overtime. These data indicate that the elderly contribute approximately one-third of the cases of incident MI, underscoring the importance of including all ages to fully characterize the burden of CHD. Cases among elderly persons more frequently require ECG coding for validation, but standardized ascertainment procedures are feasible and reliable in all age groups. More than half of the incident MIs occurred among persons with no prior CHD, and this proportion increased over time. The combination of standardized methodology and of the longitudinal data via the record linkage system of the Rochester Epidemiology Project will allow reliable measures of CHD trends and help define preventive strategies.

Trends in acute coronary heart disease mortality, morbidity, and medical care from 1985 through 1997: the Minnesota heart survey

BACKGROUND

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality continued to decline from 1985 to 1997.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We tabulated CHD deaths (ICD-9 codes 410 through 414) in the Minneapolis/St Paul, Minnesota, area. For 1985, 1990, and 1995, trained nurses abstracted the hospital records of patients 30 to 74 years old with a discharge diagnosis of acute CHD (ICD-9 codes 410 or 411). Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) events were validated and followed for 3-year all-cause mortality. Between 1985 and 1997, age-adjusted CHD mortality rates in Minneapolis/St Paul fell 47% and 51% in men and women, respectively; the comparable declines in US whites were 34% and 29%. In-hospital mortality declined faster than out-of-hospital mortality. The rate of AMI (ICD-9 code 410) hospital discharges declined almost 20% between 1985 and 1995, whereas the discharge rate for unstable angina (ICD-9 code 411) increased substantially. The incidence of hospitalized definite AMI declined approximately 10%, whereas recurrence rates fell 20% to 30%. Three-year case fatality rates after hospitalized AMI decreased consistently by 31% and 41% in men and women, respectively. In-hospital administration of thrombolytic therapy, emergency angioplasty, ACE inhibitors, beta-blockers, heparin, and aspirin increased greatly.

CONCLUSIONS

Declining out-of-hospital death rates, declining incidence and recurrence of AMI in the population, and marked improvements in the survival of AMI patients all contributed to the 1985 to 1997 decline of CHD mortality in the Minneapolis/St Paul metropolitan area. The effects of early and late medical care seem to have had the greatest contribution to rates during this time period.

Temporal trends in event rates after Q-wave myocardial infarction: the Framingham Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Short-term (<30 day) mortality after Q-wave myocardial infarction (MI) has declined over the decades, but it is unclear if rates of long-term sequelae after Q-wave MI have improved.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In 546 Framingham Heart Study subjects (388 men with a mean age of 60 years; 158 women with a mean age of 69 years) with an initial recognized Q-wave MI from 1950 through 1989, we investigated time trends in risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) death (n=199), all-cause mortality (n=287), reinfarction (n=108), and congestive heart failure (CHF; n=121). With 1950 through 1969 as the reference period, hazards ratios (HRs) for these outcomes were determined for the 1970s and 1980s. Trend analyses across the 3 time periods were performed for each outcome. Compared with the 1950 through 1969 reference period, the HRs for CHD death were lower in subsequent decades (1970 through 1979: HR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.49 to 0.98; 1980 through 1989: HR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.72). All-cause mortality also declined (1970 through 1979: HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.0.52 to 0.94; 1980 through 1989: HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.81). There were no significant temporal changes in the risks for recurrent MI or CHF.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial reductions in risk of CHD death and all-cause mortality occurred over these 4 decades, coincident with improvements in post-MI therapies. The absence of a decline in CHF incidence may be due to improved post-MI survival of individuals with depressed left ventricular systolic function who are at high risk for CHF.

Trends in heart disease deaths in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1979-1994

BACKGROUND

Although age-adjusted heart disease mortality has declined since the 1960s, this decline may not have applied equally to all subgroups.

OBJECTIVE

To examine recent trends in heart disease mortality, specifically in women and in the elderly.

METHODS

Age- and sex-specific heart disease mortality (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition, Clinical Modification [ICD-9-CM] codes 390-398, 402, 404-429) in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between 1979 and 1994 were studied.

RESULTS

The total number of heart disease deaths was 3095; 1578 (51%) occurred in women and 1984 (64%) in persons aged 75 years or older. Most heart disease deaths (77%) were coronary disease deaths (ICD-9-CM codes 410-414). Age-adjusted heart disease mortality rates declined from 123 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval [CI], 102-144/100,000) in 1979 to 81 per 100,000 (95% CI, 67-95/100,000) in 1994. Poisson regression analyses indicated that the trends differed according to sex and age. For women, the relative risk (RR) of heart disease death in 1994 compared with 1979 was 0.69 vs 0.53 for men (P = .06). This equates to a decline in heart disease mortality of 2.5% per year in women or 32% over the period and 4.2% per year in men or 47% over the period. The decline was less pronounced as age increased (P < .001). For 60-year-old women, the RR for 1994 compared with 1979 was 0.59, whereas for 80-year-old women, the RR for 1994 compared with 1979 was 0.76. For men, the RR for 1994 compared with 1979 was 0.60 for 80-year-old men vs 0.46 for 60-year-old men.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 1979 and 1994, in Olmsted County, the decline in heart disease mortality was of lesser magnitude in women and in the elderly, emphasizing the importance of age- and sex-specific trends to characterize time patterns in heart disease deaths to target preventive measures.

Direct medical costs of coronary artery disease in the United States

To generate current incidence-based estimates of the direct medical costs of coronary artery disease (CAD) in the United States, a Markov model of the economic costs of CAD-related medical care was developed. Risks of initial and subsequent CAD events (sudden CAD death, fatal/nonfatal acute myocardial infarction [AMI], unstable angina, and stable angina) were estimated using new Framingham Heart Study risk equations and population risk profiles derived from national survey data. Costs were assumed to be those related to treatment of initial and subsequent CAD events ("event-related") and follow-up care ("nonevent-related"), respectively. Cost estimates were derived primarily from national public-use databases. First-year direct medical costs of treating CAD events are estimated to be $17,532 for fatal AMI, $15,540 for nonfatal AMI, $2,569 for stable angina, $12,058 for unstable angina, and $713 for sudden CAD death. Nonevent-related direct costs of CAD treatment are estimated to be $1,051 annually. The annual incidence of CAD in the United States is estimated at 616,900 cases, with first-year costs of treatment totaling $5.54 billion. Five- and 10-year cumulative costs in 1995 dollars for patients who are initially free of CAD are estimated at $9.2 billion and $16.5 billion, respectively; for all patients with CAD, these costs are estimated to be $71.5 billion and $126.6 billion, respectively. The direct medical costs of CAD create a large economic burden for the United States health-care system.

Risk assessment and risk stratification in sudden cardiac death: a biostatistician's view

Determining individual probabilities of developing lethal arrhythmia over time (risk assessment) and grouping individuals by that probability (risk stratification) are similar to, yet differ in purpose from, screening, diagnosis, risk factor identification, and prognostic staging. Methods of handling bias, use of multiple predictors, and evaluation of results provide challenges. A key purpose of risk assessment and stratification is examined. The role of operational definitions of predictors and events and of methods that account for multiple predictors and known confounding factors is analyzed. Constructed examples illustrate potential pitfalls in assessment and how multivariate techniques can deal with multiple predictors. A trial design to evaluate risk stratification for the identified purpose is elaborated and potential results are interpreted. Bias from predictors regressing to the mean can be minimized either by averaging a number of measurements or by equalizing the bias in comparison groups. An analysis of two predictors and two risk strata illustrates how the discrimination of combined predictors may be greater than the sum of the individual variables' discrimination. Risk stratification can be evaluated in trials that randomize competing interventions within different risk strata. Results of such trials indicate whether the risk strata adequately distinguish individuals by their responsiveness to particular intervention. Potential pitfalls, not easily recognized in risk stratification, can be avoided in the methods and in studies for evaluating those methods. Multivariate techniques maximize the discrimination of multiple predictors, but may increase complexity. Randomized trials of treatment provide evidence for utility of risk stratification.

Ethnic differences in mortality of male and female patients surviving acute myocardial infarction: long-term follow-up of 5,700 patients. The Secondary Prevention Reinfarction Israeli Nifedipine Trial (SPRINT) Study Group

In migrant countries, ethnic origin may represent a complex of cultural, behavioral and possibly genetic differences. These have been shown to influence acute myocardial infarction (AMI) incidence. How ethnic origin may affect survival after AMI is unknown. Data from 5,692 patients included in the Secondary Prevention Reinfarction Israeli Nifedipine Trial (SPRINT) registry were analyzed. Patients were divided into eight different ethnic groups, according to birthplaces from five continents, representing major socio-economic and possibly some genetic variation. Mortality was analyzed after adjustment for baseline characteristics known to predict death from coronary artery disease (CAD) using Jews born in Israel as a reference. The odds ratio for in-hospital mortality was higher in women than in men, but unrelated to ethnic origin. The odds ratio for men ranged between 1.08 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.67-1.73) for Jews born in Eastern Europe and 1.84 (95% CI: 1.07-3.15) for counterparts born in the Middle East. The odds ratio for women ranged between 0.73 in Jews born in Central Europe (95% CI: 0.35-1.50) and 1.45 (95% CI: 0.76-3.15) for Jewish women born in the Balkan countries. Among 4,686 patients surviving the hospital phase, long-term mortality rates (mean follow-up 7.1 +/- 3.5 years) were 43.3% in men and 57.6% in women. Among 3,586 surviving men, the adjusted risk ratios for 10-year mortality varied between 0.92 (95% CI: 0.72-1.18) for men born in Romania and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.07-2.09) for Israeli born Arabs. The variation among men is within the limits of statistical error. However, among 1,100 surviving women, the risk ratio for 10-year mortality differed significantly, from as low as 1.43 (95% CI: 0.84-2.41) in Jewish women born in Central Europe to as high as 2.83 (95% CI: 1.67-4.79) in counterparts born in the Middle East. The latter observations were consistent with the mortality after 3 years. Thus, ethnic origin of Israelis marginally influenced the in-hospital mortality. The long-term prognosis varied significantly among women from different origins but not among men.

Comparison of mortality from acute myocardial infarction between 1979 and 1992 in a geographically defined stable population

This study documents mortality from acute myocardial infarction (AMI), in hospital and at 1 year, for each of 3 selected 1-year periods in a stable community over a 13-year period beginning in 1979 and continuing into the thrombolytic era, to detect any changes occurring in conjunction with the introduction of new therapies. Every patient with AMI occurring in a geographically defined stable community (Hamilton, Ontario, Canada) in 3 1-year periods (1979 to 1980 [n = 816], 1986 to 1987 [n = 816], and 1991 to 1992 [n = 831]) was identified and clinically characterized by standardized criteria. Subsequent in-hospital and 1-year survival were ascertained prospectively. The 3 cohorts were similar in prognostic factors. Mean age was progressively greater over the study period from 63 years in 1979 to 1980, to 67 years in 1991 to 1992 (p = 0.02). There was no change in in-hospital mortality rates from 1979 to 1980 (17%) and 1986 to 1987 (16%). However, from 1986 to 1987 and 1991 to 1992, in-hospital mortality decreased from 16% to 9% (p < 0.001) and 1-year mortality decreased from 26% to 19% (p < 0.001). For patients who survived the hospital phase of AMI, 1-year mortality did not change and was between 11% and 12% in each of the 3 study periods. From 1986 to 1987 and 1991 to 1992, there was an increase in the use of thrombolytic therapy from 5% to 44% of patients. The acute use of aspirin increased from 30% to 88% and the acute use of beta blockers increased from 19% to 48% of patients. The observed increase in use of these agents could account for half of the actual mortality reduction observed. This prospective population-based survey demonstrates improved in-hospital survival after AMI associated with increased use of established effective therapies between 1987 and 1992. The 1-year mortality of hospital survivors of AMI was unchanged throughout the period of study, remaining at 11% to 12%.

Coronary heart disease mortality, morbidity, and case fatality in five east and west German cities 1985-1989. Acute Myocardial Infarction Register Teams of Augsburg, Bremen, Chemnitz, Erfurt, and Zwickau

Cardiovascular mortality (CVD; International Classification of Diseases [ICD] 390-458) is higher in East than in West Germany, but the differences in official coronary heart disease mortality (CHD; ICD 410-414) are not so pronounced. The aim of this study was to validate the official mortality statistics based on the five German AMI registers and to analyze whether these mortality differences are due to differences in the attack rates of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or to differences in the 28-day case fatality rates. This comparison includes the MONICA study cities of Augsburg and Bremen, both in West Germany, as well as the cities of Chemnitz, Erfurt, and Zwickau in East Germany (former the German Democratic Republic). The rates were calculated on the basis of all MONICA cases of definite AMI or coronary death aged 35 to 64 years occurring in the respective study populations between 1985 and 1989. All study populations except women in Augsburg showed higher coronary death rates compared to the rates based on the official cause of death statistics (ICD 410-414), but this difference was significant only for men in Chemnitz. In men there were no significant differences in the register-based coronary death rates between these urban areas (160/100,000 in Zwickau to 170/100,000 in Chemnitz) nor in the AMI attack rates (327/100,000 in Augsburg to 363/100,000 in Chemnitz), and consequently no significant center differences in the overall 28-day case fatality. However, the prehospital case fatality was significantly higher in Erfurt (34%) than in Bremen (27%). There were no significant differences in the AMI attack rates in women as well (60/100,000 in Chemnitz to 70/100,000 in Bremen and Erfurt), but the overall 28-day case fatality showed a clear gradient from the East (61-71%) to the West German cities (48-56%) and therefore also the register-based coronary death rates (38-50/100,000 and 34-38/100,000, respectively). However, the higher 28-day case fatality in women found in the MONICA registers in East compared to West Germany is not reflected in the CHD mortality statistics because of a stronger underestimation of the official mortality rates and in East than in West Germany, in particular in women. Nevertheless, the total mortality rates and in most cases also the CVD mortality rates were in women significantly higher in the East German compared to the West German cities. The East German official preunification CHD mortality data cannot be used for national and international comparisons. The results of the MONICA AMI registers in East and West Germany indicate, furthermore, the need to improve coronary care in women in the eastern part of the country. Nevertheless, because of the relatively high AMI attack rate in both parts of Germany primary prevention must generally be intensified.

Sex related differences in short and long-term prognosis after acute myocardial infarction: 10 year follow up of 3073 patients in database of first Danish Verapamil Infarction Trial

OBJECTIVE

To re-examine the prevailing hypothesis that women fare worse than men after acute myocardial infarction.

DESIGN

10 year follow up of all patients with confirmed acute myocardial infarction registered in the database of the Danish verapamil infarction trial in 1979-81.

SETTING

16 coronary care units, covering a fifth of the total Danish population.

PATIENTS

3073 consecutive patients with acute myocardial infarction, 738 (24%) women and 2335 (76%) men.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Early mortality (before day 15). For patients alive on day 15: mortality, cause of death, admission with recurrent infarction, and mortality after reinfarction.

RESULTS

Early mortality increased significantly with age (P < 0.0001) but was not significantly related to sex, with a 15 day mortality of 17% in women and 16% in men. Adjustment for age and sex simultaneously revealed a significant interaction (P = 0.02) between these variables, with a greater increase with age in early mortality for men than for women (early mortality was equal for the two sexes at age 64 years). Ten year mortality in patients alive on day 15 was 58.8%. The overall age adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for women versus men was 0.90 (0.80 to 1.01); 0.90 (0.78 to 1.04) for 10 year reinfarction (48.8%); and 0.98 (0.82 to 1.16) for 10 year mortality after reinfarction (82.3%). No difference in cause of death was found between the sexes. With a follow up of up to 10 years for patients alive on day 15 mortality, rate of reinfarction, and mortality after reinfarction increased with increasing age (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Sex by itself is not a risk factor after acute myocardial infarction.

Trends in cardiovascular disease incidence and survival in the elderly

This study compared the age-specific incidence, postdiagnostic survival, and mortality for cardiovascular disease (CVD) in two cohorts of people aged 65 years and older. All subjects were members of a large prepaid health maintenance organization. The influence of changes in CVD risk factors on these rates also was evaluated. Trends in prevalence, incidence, postdiagnostic survival, and mortality for CVD were examined in both cohorts in 1971 and 1980. Myocardial infarction (MI), angina pectoris, stroke, and congestive heart failure (CHF) were included as CVD outcomes in this analysis. Nine-year prospective data on these diagnoses were abstracted from medical records and computerized hospitalization records for both cohorts. Age-sex-adjusted cardiovascular mortality was lower for both sexes by approximately 20% in the 1980 cohort. Overall survival did not change, whereas cancer mortality increased by 76% in women and 36% in men. With the exception of stroke, there was no increase in age-adjusted or age-specific prevalence. In men, the age-adjusted prevalence of stroke in men was 24% higher in the 1980 cohort. Age-adjusted 9-year incidence of MI, angina pectoris, stroke, and CHF did not change between cohorts in either sex Postdiagnostic, age-adjusted mortality for men with incident stroke was 24% lower in the 1980 cohort, and Postdiagnostic, age-adjusted mortality for men with incident angina was 35% lower in the 1980 cohort. Adjustment for risk factors measured at or before baseline had little influence on cohort differences in CVD incidence or duration of survival after CVD diagnosis. This study confirms other research showing a decline in CVD mortality over the past 20 years. These findings suggest that prevalent angina pectoris is increasing in men, and that survival with stroke and with angina is improving in men. Later diagnosis of incident CHF in men suggests that prevention and early detection may be postponing the development of more serious disease.

Recent trends in acute coronary heart disease--mortality, morbidity, medical care, and risk factors. The Minnesota Heart Survey Investigators

BACKGROUND

Mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) has declined in the United States since the late 1960s. To understand the reasons for the decline during the period form 1985 to 1990, we examined trends in mortality and morbidity due to CHD, medical care, and risk factors for CHD in a large metropolitan population.

METHODS

We identified all deaths from CHD in residents of the Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minnesota, metropolitan area who were 30 to 74 years old and classified the deaths according to whether they occurred in or out of the hospital. For 1985 and 1990, we obtained lists of patients in this age range who were discharged with a diagnosis of acute CHD from all area hospitals, and we selected the medical records of 50 percent of these patients for abstraction. Definite myocardial infarctions were identified with standardized diagnostic algorithm. The 1985 and 1990 cohorts of patients hospitalized for myocardial infarction were followed for at least three years to identify those who died from any cause. Trends in risk factors for CHD were investigated through surveys of 25-to-74-year-olds that were conducted in 1985 through 1987 and 1990 through 1992.

RESULTS

Between 1985 and 1990, mortality from CHD fell by 25 percent for both men and women, and the decline in in-hospital mortality (41 percent) exceeded the decline in out-of-hospital mortality (17 percent) among men. The rates of hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction declined slightly, by 5 to 10 percent, between 1985 and 1990. Survival among patients hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction increased substantially during that period. After adjustment for age and previous myocardial infarction, the relative risk of dying within three years of hospitalization for a myocardial infarction (for the 1990 cohort as compared with the 1985 cohort) was 0.76 for men (95 percent confidence interval, 0.65 to 0.89) and 0.84 for women (95 percent confidence interval, 0.71 to 1.00). Substantial increases in the use of thrombolytic therapy, heparin, aspirin, and coronary angioplasty paralleled the survival trends. In general, the risk-factor profile of the area population with respect to CHD also improved considerably during that time.

CONCLUSIONS

The recent decline in mortality due to CHD in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area can be explained by both the declining incidence of myocardial infarction in the population and the improved survival of patients with myocardial infarction.

Twenty-five-year mortality rate decrease in patients in Israel with a first episode of acute myocardial infarction. Secondary Prevention Reinfarction Israeli Nifedipine Trial Study Group. Israeli Thrombolytic Survey Group

The aim of our study was to compare the outcome of patients with a first acute myocardial infarction (AMI) among three large cohorts of patients hospitalized between 1966 and 1992 in Israel, in view of changes in treatment facilities and investigation methods. Patients with a first AMI constituted 71% of all myocardial infarctions in 1966, 74% in 1981-1983, and 71% in 1992. The male-female ratio and the distribution of the site of infarction also remained stable from 1966 to 1992. The mean age of patients increased over time. Thrombolytic therapy was not available in 1966 and 1981-1983, whereas 53% of patients were treated with a thrombolytic agent and 22% examined with coronary angiography in 1992. The 21-day mortality rate decreased markedly, from 22% in 1966 to 14% in 1981-1983 and to 8% in 1992. The decrease was similar in both genders and among 10-year age groups. The 1-year postdischarge mortality rate (not evaluated in 1966) decreased from 7% in 1981-1983 to 6% in 1992. We conclude that a significant reduction in mortality rate after a first AMI took place over the 25-year period. Changes in treatment modality and management of the acute phase may explain this decrease in mortality rate over time.

Cost-effectiveness analysis in heart disease, Part II: Preventive therapies

Cost-effectiveness analysis of preventive therapies are reviewed in the following categories: lipid lowering, hypertension, smoking cessation, exercise, and anticoagulation. From review of 8 analyses, cost-effectiveness of primary prevention via cholesterol lowering drugs is generally expensive, whereas that of secondary prevention generally is favorable. However, targeting by age, coexisting risk factors, and gender strongly influence results that are also sensitive to drug costs. Treatment of hypertension (5 analyses) is cost-effective in virtually all patient populations and circumstances and for a wide variety of drugs. It is more so with coexisting risk. Issues relating to compliance and drug costs are important. Smoking cessation (4 analyses) is highly cost-effective and worthwhile. However, data on recidivism are incomplete, and cessation may be more difficult to achieve in the general population versus study patients. In one analysis, an exercise program was found to be cost-effective in prevention of coronary heart disease. Anticoagulants have been analyzed in various circumstances. Their cost-effectiveness is favorable for prosthetic valves, although sensitive to imprecision in monitoring. It is also favorable for mitral stenosis in the presence of atrial fibrillation but not normal sinus rhythm. Cost-effectiveness of heparinization for prosthetic valve patients undergoing surgery is rather variable and depends on type of surgery (major versus minor) and type of valve. Many topics in anticoagulant therapy remain to be explored from a cost-effectiveness point of view.

Long-term survival of patients with coronary artery disease during the 1970s. A cohort study

STUDY OBJECTIVE

This study was undertaken to determine the effects of altered risk factors and treatment modalities on the short- and long-term survival of patients with documented coronary artery disease whose conditions were diagnosed from 1972 through 1982.

STUDY DESIGN

The study was a retrospective database analysis of clinical, angiographic, and follow-up information.

SETTING

Data from all patients referred for cardiac catheterization at the Baptist Memorial Hospital, Memphis, Tenn, were studied.

PATIENTS

Risk factors and survival of patients who underwent cardiac catheterization from 1972 through 1982 and who were followed up for at least 5 years were evaluated. Cohort A included 1,821 patients studied from 1972 through 1977; cohort B included 5,369 patients studied between 1977 and the end of 1982. Each cohort was subdivided based on type of therapy (medical or surgical) that the patients received.

MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS

The 30-day (short-term) and 5-year (long-term) survival rates were compared by life table methods. Short-term survival improved significantly in both medical (from 94.9% to 97.5%, p < 0.001) and surgical (from 95.5% to 97.6%, p < 0.001) groups from cohort A to cohort B. Long-term survival, however, did not differ significantly between the two cohorts. In the medical group, 5-year survival in cohort A was 86.3% and in cohort B it was 86.9% (p = NS); in the surgical group, cohort A it was 89.1% while in cohort B it was 89.4% (p = NS). Prevalence of both cigarette smoking and hypercholesterolemia declined significantly from cohort A to cohort B in both surgical and medical groups. However, advanced age, female gender, and previous myocardial infarction were significantly more common in cohort B than in cohort A for both treatment groups.

CONCLUSIONS

These results indicate that during the study period, a significant decline in short-term mortality occurred for patients with angiographically documented coronary artery disease. Long-term survival did not, however, improve possibly due to a complex interplay between factors that promote coronary artery disease, eg, cigarette abuse and hypercholesterolemia, and factors that determine survival, eg, increase in age and history of prior infarction and advances in medical and surgical therapy.

Population-wide mortality trends among patients hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction: the Ontario experience, 1981 to 1991

OBJECTIVES

This study attempted to determine population-based trends in in-hospital patient fatality from acute myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND

The in-hospital prognosis for patients with acute myocardial infarction should be improving as a result of adoption of treatments proved in randomized trials (e.g., thrombolytic, beta-adrenergic blocking and anticoagulant agents and aspirin). However, all trials are subject to selection biases, eligibility is limited for some therapies, and proved therapies may be underused even among eligible patients.

METHODS

Using administrative data from all general hospitals in Ontario, Canada, we analyzed 17,489, 17,839, 18,393, 18,794, 18,716 and 19,748 records of patients with a primary discharge diagnosis of myocardial infarction for fiscal years 1981, 1983, 1985, 1987, 1989 and 1991, respectively.

RESULTS

After age and gender adjustment, the overall relative reduction in in-hospital case fatality rates for the 10-year period was 26.9% (99% confidence interval [CI] 26.8% to 26.9%), corresponding to an absolute reduction of 6% (99% CI 5.6% to 6.4%). Age- and gender-standardized case fatality rate decreased from 22.3% in 1981 to 21.4% in 1985, followed by a highly significant decline to 16.3% in 1991. On the basis of the relation of comparative mortality to days of hospital stay, declining mortality was not an artifact of decreasing length of stay.

CONCLUSIONS

There have been encouraging improvements in survival after acute myocardial infarction over the past 6 years. Further improvements may require development of new therapies that can be more widely applied to this patient population.

Trends in coded causes of death following definite myocardial infarction and the role of competing risks: the Minnesota Heart Survey (MHS)

We investigated possible differences over time in underlying causes of death among validated definite myocardial infarction cases who were discharged following an index hospitalization in 1970, 1980, and 1985 in the Twin Cities, MN. No changes were observed in underlying causes of death assigned to patients who died prior to discharge in the 3 years. Among in-hospital survivors of definite MI, however, age-adjusted rates of death from non-cardiovascular causes more than doubled between 1970 and 1985 (P < 0.01). More specifically, mortality rates for diabetes mellitus increased significantly from 1970 to 1985 (P < 0.05), while those for neoplasms and diseases of the respiratory system increased non-significantly. Whether these data are the result of artifactual changes in cause of death assignment or real changes in disease severity and comorbidity, these trends in long-term death following acute MI may have had a modest impact on reported community-wide coronary heart disease mortality rates.

After correcting for worse baseline characteristics, women treated with thrombolytic therapy for acute myocardial infarction have the same mortality and morbidity as men except for a higher incidence of hemorrhagic stroke. The Investigators of the International Tissue Plasminogen Activator/Streptokinase Mortality Study

BACKGROUND

In the prethrombolytic era, women with myocardial infarction were reported to have a worse outcome than men. This analysis evaluates the association of sex with morbidity and mortality after thrombolytic therapy.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data were analyzed from 8261 of the 8387 randomized patients with acute myocardial infarction who received thrombolytic therapy in the International Tissue Plasminogen Activator/Streptokinase Mortality Study (baseline data were missing for 126 patients) and were followed for 6 months. Women made up 23% (n = 1944) of the study population. Baseline characteristics were worse in women: they were 6 years older, were more likely to have a history of previous infarction (P < .01), antecedent angina (P < .01), hypertension (P < .0001), or diabetes (P < .0001); were in a higher Killip class on admission (P < .0002); and received thrombolytic therapy 18 minutes later than men (P < .0001). Fewer women were smokers (P < .0001). Women had a higher hospital (12.1% versus 7.2%, P < .0001) and 6-month mortality (16.6% versus 10.4%, P < .0001) and were more likely to develop cardiogenic shock (9.1% versus 6.3%, P < .0001), bleeding (7.2% versus 5.3%, P < .01), and hemorrhagic (1% versus 0.3%, P < .001) or total stroke (2.2% versus 1.1%, P < .0001) during hospitalization. Reinfarction rates and requirement for angioplasty or surgery did not differ. After correction for worse baseline characteristics, women had similar morbidity and mortality apart from a significantly higher incidence of hemorrhagic stroke, which remained significant even after accounting for weight and treatment allocation (odds ratio, 2.90; P < .01).

CONCLUSIONS

After thrombolytic therapy for acute myocardial infarction, women have similar morbidity and mortality to men but suffer from a higher incidence of hemorrhagic stroke.

Short and long term prognosis of acute myocardial infarction since introduction of thrombolysis

OBJECTIVE

To record prognosis and determinants of outcome in patients with acute myocardial infarction since thrombolysis was introduced.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

London district general hospital.

PATIENTS

608 consecutive patients admitted to the coronary care unit with acute myocardial infarction between 1 January 1988 and 31 December 1991.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

All cause mortality, non-fatal ischaemic events (myocardial infarction, unstable angina), and revascularisation.

RESULTS

Of the 608 patients, 89 (14.6%) died in hospital. 507 [corrected] patients were followed up after discharge from hospital. Mortality (95% confidence interval) at 30 days, one year, and three years was 16.0% (13.4% to 19.2%), 21.7% (18.6% to 25.2%), and 29.4% (25.3% to 33.9%) respectively. Event free survival (survival without a non-fatal ischaemic event) was 80.4% (77.0% to 83.4%) at 30 days, 66.8% (62.8% to 70.5%) at one year, and 56.1% (51.3% to 60.6%) at three years. Survival in patients treated with thrombolysis was considerably higher than in those not given thrombolysis (three year survival: 76.7% v 54.3%), although the incidence of non-fatal ischaemic events was the same in the two groups. Multivariate determinants of six month survival were left ventricular failure, treatment with thrombolysis and aspirin, smoking history, bundle branch block, and age. For patients who survived six months, age was the only factor related to long term survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Although patients treated by thrombolysis had a relatively good prognosis, long term mortality and the incidence of non-fatal recurrent ischaemic events remained high. Effective strategies for the identification and treatment of high risk patients need to be reassessed.

Determinants of 6-month mortality in survivors of myocardial infarction after thrombolysis. Results of the GISSI-2 data base. The Ad hoc Working Group of the Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Sopravvivenza nell'Infarto Miocardico (GISSI)-2 Data Base

BACKGROUND

Current knowledge of risk assessment in survivors of myocardial infarction is largely based on data gathered before the advent of thrombolysis. It must be determined whether and to what extent available information and proposed criteria of prognostication are applicable in the thrombolytic era.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We reassessed risk prediction in the 10,219 survivors of myocardial infarction with follow-up data available (ie, 98% of the total) who had been enrolled in the GISSI-2 trial, relying on a set of prespecified variables. The 3.5% 6-month all-cause mortality rate of these patients compared with the higher value of 4.6% found in the corresponding GISSI-1 cohort, originally allocated to streptokinase therapy, indicates a 24% reduction in postdischarge 6-month mortality. On multivariate analysis (Cox model), the following variables were predictors of 6-month all-cause mortality: ineligibility for exercise test for both cardiac (relative risk [RR], 3.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.36-4.62) and noncardiac reasons (RR, 3.28; 95% CI, 2.23-4.72), early left ventricular failure (RR, 2.41; 95% CI, 1.87-3.09), echocardiographic evidence of recovery phase left ventricular dysfunction (RR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.78-2.98), advanced (more than 70 years) age (RR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.43-2.30), electrical instability (ie, frequent and/or complex ventricular arrhythmias) (RR, 1.70; 95% CI, 1.32-2.19), late left ventricular failure (RR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.17-2.03), previous myocardial infarction (RR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.14-1.89), and a history of treated hypertension (RR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.05-1.65). Early post-myocardial infarction angina, a positive exercise test, female sex, history of angina, history of insulin-dependent diabetes, and anterior site of myocardial infarction were not risk predictors. On further multivariate analysis, performed on 8315 patients with the echocardiographic indicator of left ventricular dysfunction available, only previous myocardial infarction was not retained as an independent risk predictor.

CONCLUSIONS

A decline in 6-month mortality of myocardial infarction survivors, seen within 6 hours of symptom onset, has been observed in recent years. Ineligibility for exercise test, early left ventricular failure, and recovery-phase left ventricular dysfunction are the most powerful (RR, > 2) predictors of 6-month mortality among patients recovering from myocardial infarction after thrombolysis. Qualitative variables reflecting residual myocardial ischemia do not appear to be risk predictors. The lack of an independent adverse influence of early post-myocardial infarction angina on 6-month survival represents a major difference between this study and those of the prethrombolytic era.

A communitywide perspective of sex differences and temporal trends in the incidence and survival rates after acute myocardial infarction and out-of-hospital deaths caused by coronary heart disease

BACKGROUND

The purpose of the study was to examine overall differences and temporal trends therein between men and women regarding the incidence rates, in-hospital and long-term survival after initial acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and out-of-hospital deaths caused by coronary disease.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This nonconcurrent prospective study was carried out in 16 teaching and community hospitals in Worcester, Mass., in six time periods between 1975 and 1988. A total of 3,148 patients hospitalized with validated initial AMI comprised the study sample. The age-adjusted incidence rates of initial AMI increased between 1975 and 1981 in the two sexes, with a marked decrease thereafter; these rates declined by 26% in men and by 22% in women between 1975 and 1988. The overall unadjusted in-hospital case-fatality rates after initial AMI were significantly higher in women (21.7%) than in men (12.7%). Age- and multivariable-adjusted in-hospital case-fatality rates, however, were not significantly different for men compared with women (multivariate-adjusted OR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.70, 1.16). No clear trends in in-hospital case-fatality rates were observed in men or women over the periods under study. There were no significant sex differences in the age-adjusted long-term survival rates of discharged hospital survivors of AMI. The multivariate-adjusted risk of total mortality among discharged hospital survivors, however, was significantly increased in men (multivariate-adjusted OR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.03, 1.39); neither of the sexes experienced an improvement over time in long-term prognosis. The incidence rates of out-of-hospital deaths caused by coronary disease declined by 60% in men and 69% in women between 1975 and 1988.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this multihospital, community-based study suggest declines in the incidence rates of AMI and out-of-hospital deaths caused by coronary disease in men and women over the period under study (1975-1988). No significant sex differences in in-hospital survival were observed, whereas a poorer long-term survival experience after hospital discharge was observed for men compared with women after controlling for potentially confounding prognostic factors.

The influence of sex and diabetes mellitus on survival following acute myocardial infarction: a community-wide perspective

The objective of this report was to examine the effects of sex and diabetic status on in-hospital mortality and 12 year survival following hospital discharge among 4109 patients hospitalized between 1974 and 1986 with acute myocardial infarction. Sixteen general hospitals in the Worcester, MA, standard metropolitan statistical area were included. The age-adjusted in-hospital case-fatality rate was significantly higher in diabetic women (23.3%) than in non-diabetic women (18.9%) (p < 0.05) while no significant difference was noted among men. Over a 12 year follow-up period, the relative risk of dying among diabetic men was 1.56 times that for non-diabetic men (95% CI, 1.43, 1.68). Diabetic women were 1.57 times as likely to die as non-diabetic women (95% CI, 1.45, 1.73). Among non-diabetic subjects, men had a 17% excess risk of death compared to women (95% CI, 1.09, 1.25). No significant difference in long-term mortality was noted among diabetic persons. Thus, the "female advantage" observed in the non-diabetic population was eliminated among the diabetic patients. Randomized clinical trials are needed in the diabetic population to identify specific therapies to reduce their increased risk of death.

Trends in survival of hospitalized myocardial infarction patients between 1970 and 1985. The Minnesota Heart Survey

BACKGROUND

The Minnesota Heart Survey is a population-based study designed to monitor and explain trends in cardiovascular mortality, morbidity, and risk factors. As part of this effort, a 50% sample of patients hospitalized for myocardial infarction (MI) in the seven-county Twin Cities (Minneapolis and St. Paul) metropolitan area was reviewed in 1970, 1980, and 1985. Those with a validated definite MI were followed for 4-year mortality. The purpose was to determine whether the improved survival observed between 1970 and 1980 was extended to the 1980-1985 period.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Crude 28-day mortality in men changed from 18% in 1970 to 12% in 1980 to 13% in 1985; in women it changed from 27% in 1970 to 22% in 1980 to 18% in 1985. After adjustment for severity factors (e.g., age, previous MI, and admission heart rate and systolic blood pressure), 28-day mortality was significantly lower in 1980 than in 1970 in men (RR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.47, 0.92) and in women (RR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.46, 1.04), but no change occurred from from 1980 to 1985 (p greater than 0.25). After adjustment for severity indicators, 4-year survival was better in 1980 than in 1970 for men (RR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.54, 0.83) and for women (RR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.54, 0.98), but there was no significant change from 1980 to 1985 (p greater than 0.25).

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that improvements in survival among hospitalized MI patients contributed to the overall decline in coronary heart disease mortality in the Twin Cities area between 1970 and 1980 but not between 1980 and 1985.

Did prognosis after acute myocardial infarction change during the past 30 years? A meta-analysis

Much effort has been spent to improve survival after acute myocardial infarction. To investigate how effective this effort has been, a meta-analysis was performed of studies published between 1960 and 1987 concerning mortality after acute myocardial infarction. Thirty-six studies were analyzed. They were classified with respect to deaths in the hospital and at 1 month and the 5-year mortality rate starting at hospital discharge. Mortality was assessed from all studies by comparing studies from different institutions with use of identical inclusion criteria (externally controlled studies) and by analyzing studies reporting on changes in mortality in two or more comparable patient cohorts admitted to the same institution at different time periods (internally controlled studies). Reports on clinical trials (for example, thrombolytic therapy, beta-adrenergic blockade) in acute myocardial infarction were excluded. Average overall in-hospital mortality decreased from 29% during the 1960s to 21% during the 1970s and to 16% during the 1980s. The externally controlled studies also showed a declining trend: from 1960 to 1969, 32%, from 1970 to 1979, 19% and from 1980 to 1987, 15%. The 1-month overall mortality rate decreased from 31% during the 1960s to 25% during the 1970s and 18% during the 1980s externally controlled studies. Most internally controlled studies also showed significant improvement in in-hospital and 1-month survival. In contrast, 5-year mortality after hospital discharge did not significantly decrease (33% from 1960 to 1969 and 33% from 1970 to 1979). It is concluded that in the prethrombolytic era, short-term prognosis after acute myocardial infarction has improved since 1960.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Secular trends in Q wave and non-Q wave acute myocardial infarction. The Minnesota Heart Survey

The Minnesota Heart Survey examined trends of Q wave and non-Q wave acute myocardial infarction (AMI) using a 50% random sample of all hospital discharges of patients with AMI or another acute coronary disease from 35 of 36 hospitals in 1970 and 30 of 31 hospitals in 1980 in the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area. A total of 1,901 and 1,864 potential AMI cases were abstracted in 1970 and 1980, respectively. Electrocardiograms were coded according to the Minnesota code. AMIs were validated by computerized algorithm based on chest pain, enzymes, electrocardiograms, and autopsy. This study shows that with the use of a consistent, standard diagnostic algorithm, attack rates for Q wave AMI did not change significantly between 1970 and 1980 and that attack rates for non-Q wave AMI decreased significantly during the same decade. However, when the more sensitive cardiac enzymes creatine phosphokinase and creatine phosphokinase-MB were considered, attack rates of both Q wave and non-Q wave AMIs increased. This research documents four important trends for community AMI rates that are at variance with those reported by others. There was a decline in non-Q wave AMI attack rates from 1970 to 1980; women had outcomes equal to or worse than those for men for both case-fatality and 7-year survival rates; patients with non-Q wave AMIs had worse in-hospital prognoses than those with Q wave AMIs; and 7-year survival rates were worse for Q wave AMI in 1980. These findings demonstrate the need for standard diagnostic criteria for Q wave and non-Q wave AMI if trends are to be monitored. In the future, as new trials of operative and nonoperative therapies of AMI are undertaken, these considerations will increase in importance.

Risk stratification in survivors of acute myocardial infarction: routine cardiac catheterization and angiography is a reasonable approach in most patients

Noninvasive risk assessment in survivors of AMI can effectively subdivide patients into groups with differing risk profiles after hospital discharge, but some patients at risk for late death or recurrent AMI may be incorrectly identified; data from cardiac catheterization and angiography provide complementary and generally more powerful prognostic information. Many patients may derive particular benefit from early cardiac catheterization and angiography, including: (1) patients with AMI complicated by recurrent myocardial ischemia, congestive heart failure, and/or complex ventricular arrhythmias; (2) patients with abnormal or inconclusive results of noninvasive testing or those patients unable to perform an exercise test; (3) patients with abnormal left ventricular global systolic function and those with increased left ventricular end-systolic volume; (4) "young" patients (younger than 50 years of age?); (5) older patients (older than 65 to 70 years of age?); (6) patients with non-Q wave AMI; and (7) patients who are receiving thrombolytic therapy. Performance of early cardiac catheterization and angiography in virtually all survivors of AMI, with selective use of appropriate noninvasive tests, may provide a more efficacious means of risk assessment after AMI; if all tests are performed judiciously, the cost of such an approach need not be excessive. A combination of invasive and selected noninvasive tests probably provides optimal information. The risks to the routine performance of diagnostic cardiac catheterization and angiography in all survivors of AMI are: (1) adequate care and attention may not be paid to proper performance of the procedure(s) and to detailed and proper analyses of the data; (2) the need for additional noninvasive testing in selected patients may be ignored; and most importantly, (3) premature or unnecessary revascularization procedures may be performed subsequently. For optimal patient care, the clinician must obtain all necessary data, avoid unnecessary and repetitive tests, know the accuracy of individual tests at his or her own facility, interpret all data in proper context, and then counsel patients objectively about available management strategies. With this approach, all patients who might appropriately benefit from coronary artery revascularization will be correctly identified, and patients who are truly at very low risk (minimal residual coronary artery disease and preserved left ventricular function particularly if associated with a patent infarct-related artery) may be similarly identified and managed appropriately with elimination of unnecessary additional testing and pharmacologic therapy. Finally, whatever approach to risk stratification one chooses for an individual patient, the importance of and the need to correct and/or ameliorate risk factors for coronary artery disease must be recognized and undertaken.

Trends in mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Ireland

Trends in mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Ireland from 1950 to 1986 are examined and compared with trends in some other developed countries. There was a decline in mortality from all causes which was greater in women than in men. Mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD) increased in males from 1953 to 1974 and has been declining slowly since. Mortality rates in men in Canada and the United States are now lower than those in Ireland and rates in Finnish men are approaching those in Ireland. CHD mortality in Irish males was sixth highest of developed countries in 1985. In women, CHD mortality declined in the 1950s, was stable in the 1960s and early 1970s and has been decreasing slowly since 1974. CHD mortality in Irish women was fifth highest of developed countries in 1985. Mortality rates from cerebrovascular disease have been falling in Irish women since 1958 and in men since 1969. The continuing high mortality from CHD in Ireland warrants the establishment of effective community prevention programmes.

Incidence and prognosis of secondary ventricular fibrillation in acute myocardial infarction. Evidence for a protective effect of thrombolytic therapy. GISSI Investigators

The multicenter randomized study of the Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Streptochinasi nell'Infarto Miocardico has provided the opportunity to analyze the impact of thrombolytic treatment on secondary ventricular fibrillation incidence in a large population of patients (11,712) with acute myocardial infarction. A reduction of about 20% in the frequency of secondary ventricular fibrillation was observed among patients allocated to thrombolytic treatment (streptokinase, 2.4% versus control, 2.9%; relative risk, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.64-1.00). Streptokinase appeared to exert its protective effect specifically in patients treated within 3 hours of onset of symptoms (streptokinase, 2.6% versus control, 3.7%; relative risk, 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.53-0.95). This protection was essentially due to a reduced incidence of late ventricular fibrillation occurring after the first day of hospitalization. The 311 patients with secondary ventricular fibrillation represented an overall incidence of 2.7%. Such incidence was not related to infarct location or sex but was significantly more common in patients older than 65 years (3.3% versus 2.3% in younger patients). A significant excess of in-hospital deaths was found in patients with secondary ventricular fibrillation compared with those in the reference group (38% versus 24%; relative risk, 1.98; 95% confidence interval, 1.56-2.52). Conversely, secondary ventricular fibrillation was not a predictor of 1-year mortality for hospital survivors. Thrombolytic treatment with intravenous streptokinase affords protection against secondary ventricular fibrillation most probably by a limitation of infarct size. When the arrhythmia complicates the course of infarction, it is associated with an adverse short-term outcome, whereas the long-term prognosis is not influenced.

Changes in risk factors and the decline in mortality from cardiovascular disease. The Framingham Heart Study

A decline in mortality from cardiovascular disease over the past 30 years has been well documented, but the reasons for the decline remain unclear. We analyzed the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and death from cardiovascular disease in three groups of men who were 50 to 59 years old at base line in 1950, 1960, and 1970 (the 1950, 1960, and 1970 cohorts) in order to determine the contribution of secular trends in the incidence of cardiovascular disease, risk factors, and medical care to the decline in mortality. The 10-year cumulative mortality from cardiovascular disease in the 1970 cohort was 43 percent less than that in the 1950 cohort and 37 percent less than that in the 1960 cohort (P = 0.04 by log-rank test). Among the men who were free of cardiovascular disease at base line, the 10-year cumulative incidence of cardiovascular disease declined approximately 19 percent, from 190 per 1000 in the 1950 cohort to 154 per 1000 in the 1970 cohort (0.10 less than P less than 0.20 by chi-square test), whereas the 10-year rate of death from cardiovascular disease declined 60 percent (relative risk for the 1950 cohort as compared with the 1970 cohort, 2.53; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.22 to 5.97). Significant improvements were found in risk factors for cardiovascular disease among the men initially free of cardiovascular disease in the 1970 cohort as compared with those in the 1950 cohort, including a lower serum cholesterol level (mean +/- SD, 5.72 +/- 0.98 mmol per liter [221 +/- 38 mg per deciliter], as compared with 5.90 +/- 1.03 mmol per liter [228 +/- 40 mg per deciliter]) and a lower systolic blood pressure (mean +/- SD, 135 +/- 19 mm Hg, as compared with 139 +/- 25 mm Hg), better management of hypertension (22 percent vs. 0 percent were receiving antihypertensive medication), and reduced cigarette smoking (34 percent vs. 56 percent). We propose that these improvements may have had more pronounced effects on mortality from cardiovascular disease than on the incidence of cardiovascular disease in this population. Our data suggest that the improvement in cardiovascular risk factors in the 1970 cohort may have been an important contributor to the 60 percent decline in mortality in that group as compared with the 1950 cohort, although a decline in the incidence of cardiovascular disease and improved medical interventions may also have contributed to the decline in mortality.

Myocardial infarction and patients' wives

When a patient has a myocardial infarction (MI), all aspects of marital function are affected. Soon after the MI, patients' wives experience psychological distress that decreases with time. Illness behaviors among the MI patients' wives increase, and aggressive and sexual impulses are often inhibited. Many families experience changes in members' work status after the husband has an MI, and wives are faced with increased chores. Marital interaction also changes. Dysfunctional marital relationships are associated with a poor psychosocial outcome. Additionally, spousal factors such as dependency are also likely to affect patients. Intervention strategies are best directed to wives at risk for problems.

A review of five major community-based cardiovascular disease prevention programs. Part II: Intervention strategies, evaluation methods, and results

Major community-based cardiovascular disease prevention programs have been conducted in North Karelia, Finland; the state of Minnesota; Pawtucket, Rhode Island; and in three communities and more recently in five cities near Stanford, California. The main hypothesis is that community intervention will reduce the prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors and consequently reduce cardiovascular disease incidence, morbidity, and mortality. Intervention strategies include community mobilization, social marketing, school-based health education, worksite health promotion, screening and referral of those at high risk, education of health professionals, direct education of adults, and modification of physical environments. Formative evaluation provides short-term feedback to program managers about immediate effects of intervention strategies. Outcome evaluation examines the effects of intervention on longitudinally sampled cohorts and compares cardiovascular risk status and morbidity and mortality in intervention and comparison communities. Results from North Karelia and the Stanford Three Community Study indicate that this model is efficacious and cost-effective. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute biomedical research spectrum envisions research in knowledge transfer and innovation diffusion as the last link in the causal chain whereby research affects the health of the population, but research in this area remains undeveloped compared to other aspects of cardiovascular disease prevention. This is Part II of a two part article; Part I appeared in Volume 4, Number 3.

Age-related prognosis after acute myocardial infarction (the Multicenter Diltiazem Postinfarction Trial)

The basis for the excess mortality with age after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is not clear, nor is it known whether the mode of death is altered with age. Age-related factors predictive of mortality and age-related mechanisms of the 333 deaths were examined in 2,466 patients who were enrolled in a placebo-controlled trial to determine the effect of diltiazem on mortality and reinfarction after AMI. There were 3 age groups with increasing mortality rates: ages 25 to 49 (n = 499), 50 to 64 (n = 1,228) and 65 to 75 years (n = 739). There was a significant age-related increase in the proportion of patients with baseline risk factors. These baseline characteristics did not differ by treatment (placebo vs diltiazem). However, multivariate survivorship analysis still identified age as an independent risk factor for cardiac death. The proportion of arrhythmic and myocardial failure deaths did not differ by treatment or age group.

Reduced risk of death at 28 days in patients taking a beta blocker before admission to hospital with myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE

To see whether patients taking an oral beta blocker at the time of admission to hospital with myocardial infarction have a reduced risk of death at 28 days.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of data collected on patients admitted over four years.

SETTING

Community based study.

PATIENTS

2430 Consecutive patients living in the Perth statistical division admitted to hospital with myocardial infarction during 1984-7.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Survival at 28 days among patients taking a beta blocker at onset of myocardial infarction.

RESULTS

Patients were grouped into those who were and were not taking a beta blocker at the time of admission. Though patients taking a beta blocker were older and more likely to have a history of myocardial infarction, angina, or hypertension, the overall mortality at 28 days was similar in the two groups. A logistic regression model used to adjust for factors predictive of cardiac death at 28 days confirmed that patients taking a beta blocker at the time of admission had a significantly reduced risk of death (relative risk 0.50; 95% confidence interval 0.34 to 0.76). Though the incidence of fatal ventricular fibrillation was similar in the two groups, mean peak creatine kinase activity was significantly lower in the beta blocker group.

CONCLUSIONS

These data support the value of long term use of beta blockers in patients at risk of myocardial infarction. They suggest that patients taking these agents before admission to hospital with myocardial infarction have a significant survival advantage at 28 days, which may be due to a reduction in infarct size.

A review of five major community-based cardiovascular disease prevention programs. Part I: Rationale, design, and theoretical framework

Major community-based cardiovascular disease prevention programs have been conducted in North Karelia, Finland; the state of Minnesota; Pawtucket, Rhode Island; and in three communities and more recently in five cities near Stanford, California. These primary prevention programs aim to reduce cardiovascular disease incidence by reducing risk factors in whole communities. These risk factors are smoking, high blood cholesterol, diet high in cholesterol and saturated fat, hypertension, sedentary lifestyle, and obesity. This strategy may be contrasted with secondary prevention programs directed at patients who already have symptomatic cardiovascular disease and "high risk" primary prevention programs directed at individuals found through screening to have one or more risk factors. The design of the five major programs is similar in that intervention communities are matched for purposes of evaluation with nearby comparison communities. Underlying these programs are theories of community health education, social learning, communication, social marketing, and community activation, as well as more traditional biomedical and public health disciplines. This is Part I of a two-part article.

The effect of the number of electrocardiograms analyzed on cardiovascular disease surveillance: the Minnesota Heart Survey (MHS)

One method used to control costs in community cardiovascular disease surveillance is to limit the number of electrocardiograms (ECGs) used to validate acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The Minnesota Heart Survey investigated the impact of decreasing the maximum number of ECGs analyzed on classification of ECG pattern and final AMI diagnosis (definite, probable, none). A 50% sample of all 1980 acute CHD hospital discharge records (ICD-9 code 410 or 411) from 30 of 31 Twin Cities hospitals were abstracted. Comparing results using all available ECGs in the record (maximum of 12) with those obtained using up to 4 ECGs showed little differences in the ECG classification or final AMI diagnosis.

Cost effectiveness of cholesterol-lowering therapy in The Netherlands. Simvastatin versus cholestyramine

Using a model of coronary heart disease incidence based on multivariate logistic regression functions from the Framingham Heart Study, the cost effectiveness of simvastatin was compared with that of cholestyramine in preventing such disease. For men with initial cholesterol levels of 310 mg/dl, the cost effectiveness of cholestyramine, expressed in Dutch guilders, ranges from approximately 220,000 to 510,000 guilders per year of life saved, depending on age at initiation of therapy. For simvastatin, cost-effectiveness ratios range from 50,000 to 110,000 guilders per year of life saved among this group of men. Results are similar for women, although the cost effectiveness of both agents is considerably less. These results suggest that simvastatin is substantially more cost effective than cholestyramine; that it compares well with other generally accepted medical practices, especially if therapy is initiated at an early age; and that simvastatin should become accepted as a drug of first choice in the treatment of persons with elevated serum cholesterol levels as its long-term safety record becomes more established.

Marked decline of coronary heart disease mortality in 35-44-year-old white men in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania

Trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality were examined among 35-44-year-old white men during 1970-1986. Death certificates were obtained for 1,216 cases. All were coroner-certified natural deaths and noncoroner-certified deaths due to vascular diseases and diabetes mellitus. Autopsy data, coroner's reports, hospital records, physician's reports, and informants were used to validate diagnoses. The reviewers rejected 73 of 805 CHD certifications, but they validated 54 cases not certified as CHD on the death certificate as CHD. The CHD mortality rate fell from 90.6/100,000/year in 1970-1972 to 40.3/100,000/year in 1985-1986. Approximately two thirds of the decline was related to a decline in sudden deaths including 41.6% due to incident sudden CHD death. The proportion of diabetics among validated CHD deaths rose dramatically from 6.5% in 1970-1972 to 23.0% in 1985-1986. The CHD mortality rate among diabetics apparently did not decline during the 17 years of the study. We conclude that primary prevention has contributed substantially to the CHD decline in the 35-44-year age group. Better diagnoses and treatment, especially of angina pectoris and of patients after a myocardial infarction, may also have been important. Control of CHD in diabetics must take high priority in further prevention strategies.

Population strategies of cardiovascular disease prevention: scientific base, rationale and public health implications

Congruence of evidence from all medical research methodologies has established the major causal influences in cardiovascular disease. Causation thus established, epidemiological observations are the best available evidence on which to base estimates of the potential of preventive strategies. From population comparisons we learn that some countries have little cardiovascular disease; therefore, prevention is a reality. From mortality surveillance we learn that the disease processes are highly dynamic. Parallels between cardiovascular disease and major non-cardiovascular disease mortality trends suggest that they have common causes and that common preventive strategies may be effective for both. From migrant studies we learn the predominant contribution to population risk of environment and culture. From population surveys we learn that risk characteristics for cardiovascular disease are mass phenomena, therefore they require mass preventive approaches. Follow-up studies in cohorts provide evidence of the risk attributable to elevated risk characteristics and the potential for preventive strategies in high risk societies with high disease rates. Clinical trials indicate the effectiveness of interventions in high risk individuals, the relative safety of such efforts and that cardiovascular disease prevention effects emerge in a very few years. Public health trials demonstrate that communities can mount and maintain effective preventive programs and what programs work best. Studies in youth indicate that risk of adult disease starts early and that an optimal prevention program would seek to prevent elevated risk in the first place.