A cold phase of the East Pacific triggers new phytoplankton blooms in San Francisco Bay

Observed evidence for the impact of coastal currents on the recurrent Noctiluca scintillans blooms in the northwest Indian Ocean coast

Recently, South Eastern Arabian Sea (SEAS) experiences recurrent winter blooms of green Noctiluca scintillans with serious ecological consequences. Here, the analysis of green N. scintillans blooms in SEAS for the past three consecutive years (2018-2021) is presented. The daily monitoring showed intense winter blooms during November with stable sea surface temperatures, high nitrate-phosphate concentrations and relatively lower pH levels. Dissolved oxygen concentration decreased to near hypoxia in the later stages of the bloom. Our analysis finds that the increased occurrence of N. scintillans blooms along SEAS is driven by the coastal currents (EICC), which transport the bloom species from the east coast (south west Bay of Bengal) to west coast of India. Therefore, the N. scintillans seeding from the South west Bay of Bengal intensifies winter blooms in SEAS, thus unveils the influence of oceanic currents in deciding the phytoplankton blooms across the coastal regions of north Indian Ocean.

Long-term phytoplankton dynamics in the Zeeschelde estuary (Belgium) are driven by the interactive effects of de-eutrophication, altered hydrodynamics and extreme weather events

We studied how changing human impacts affected phytoplankton dynamics in the freshwater and brackish tidal reaches of the Zeeschelde estuary (Belgium) between 2002 and 2018. Until the early 2000s, the Zeeschelde was heavily polluted due to high wastewater discharges. By 2008, water quality had improved, resulting in lower nutrient concentrations and higher oxygen levels. Since 2009, however, increased dredging activities resulted in altered hydrodynamics and increased suspended sediment concentration. The combined effects of these environmental changes were reflected in three marked transitions in phytoplankton community composition. Assemblages were dominated by Thalassiosirales and green algae (especially Scenedesmaceae) until 2003. The period 2003-2011 was characterized by the wax and wane of the centric diatoms Actinocyclus and Aulacoseira, while in the period 2012-2018 Thalassiosirales and Cyanobacteria became dominant, the latter mainly imported from the tributaries. Phytoplankton biomass increased sharply in 2003, after which there was a gradual decline until 2018. By 2018, the timing of the growing season had advanced with about one month compared to the start of the study, probably as a consequence of climate warming and intensified zooplankton grazing pressure. Our study shows that de-eutrophication (during the 2000s) and morphological interventions in the estuary (in the 2010s) were dominant drivers of phytoplankton dynamics but that the main shifts in community composition were triggered by extreme weather events, suggesting significant resistance of autochthonous communities to gradual changes in the environment.

Photoperiod-driven rhythms reveal multi-decadal stability of phytoplankton communities in a highly fluctuating coastal environment

Phytoplankton play a pivotal role in global biogeochemical and trophic processes and provide essential ecosystem services. However, there is still no broad consensus on how and to what extent their community composition responds to environmental variability. Here, high-frequency oceanographic and biological data collected over more than 25 years in a coastal Mediterranean site are used to shed light on the temporal patterns of phytoplankton species and assemblages in their environmental context. Because of the proximity to the coast and due to large-scale variations, environmental conditions showed variability on the short and long-term scales. Nonetheless, an impressive regularity characterised the annual occurrence of phytoplankton species and their assemblages, which translated into their remarkable stability over decades. Photoperiod was the dominant factor related to community turnover and replacement, which points at a possible endogenous regulation of biological processes associated with species-specific phenological patterns, in analogy with terrestrial plants. These results highlight the considerable stability and resistance of phytoplankton communities in response to different environmental pressures, which contrast the view of these organisms as passively undergoing changes that occur at different temporal scales in their habitat, and show how, under certain conditions, biological processes may prevail over environmental forcing.

Multi-scale trend analysis of water quality using error propagation of generalized additive models

Effective stewardship of ecosystems to sustain current ecological status or mitigate impacts requires nuanced understanding of how conditions have changed over time in response to anthropogenic pressures and natural variability. Detecting and appropriately characterizing changes requires accurate and flexible trend assessment methods that can be readily applied to environmental monitoring datasets. A key requirement is complete propagation of uncertainty through the analysis. However, this is difficult when there are mismatches between sampling frequency, period of record, and trends of interest. Here, we propose a novel application of generalized additive models (GAMs) for characterizing multi-decadal changes in water quality indicators and demonstrate its utility by analyzing a 30-year record of biweekly-to-monthly chlorophyll-a concentrations in the San Francisco Estuary. GAMs have shown promise in water quality trend analysis to separate long-term (i.e., annual or decadal) trends from seasonal variation. Our proposed methods estimate seasonal averages in a response variable with GAMs, extract uncertainty measures for the seasonal estimates, and then use the uncertainty measures with mixed-effects meta-analysis regression to quantify inter-annual trends that account for full propagation of error across methods. We first demonstrate that nearly identical descriptions of temporal changes can be obtained using different smoothing spline formulations of the original time series. We then extract seasonal averages and their standard errors for an a priori time period within each year from the GAM results. Finally, we demonstrate how across-year trends in seasonal averages can be modeled with mixed-effects meta-analysis regression that propagates uncertainties from the GAM fits to the across-year analysis. Overall, this approach leverages GAMs to smooth data with missing observations or varying sample effort across years to estimate seasonal averages and meta-analysis to estimate trends across years. Methods are provided in the wqtrends R package.

Impact of barge movement on phytoplankton diversity in a river: A Bayesian risk estimation framework

The adverse effect of barge movement on the river's aquatic ecosystem is of global concern. The phytoplankton community, a bioindicator, is possibly the foremost victim of the barge movement. This study hypothesized phytoplankton diversity loss induced by barge movement in a large river. This article presents a novel risk assessment framework to evaluate the hypothesis-with a goal to uncoupling phytoplankton diversity loss due to barge movement over a spatiotemporal scale. For this purpose, a study was conducted in the Bhagirathi-Hooghly stretch of Inland National Waterway 1 of India. This study has proposed a new index of diversity loss and its inferential framework based on full Bayesian Generalized Linear Mixed Model. The results have diagnosed significant barge-induced impact on the phytoplankton diversity and identified ten most impacted species. The proposed framework has successfully disentangled barge-induced phytoplankton diversity loss from the biological process and predicted a substantive overall risk of phytoplankton loss of 31.44%. Besides, it has uncoupled spatiotemporal differential estimates, suggesting a risk of diversity loss in order of 'During vs After' (38.0%) > 'Before vs After' (30.7%) > 'Before vs During' (24%) barge movement in temporal scale and increasing diversity loss along downstream. Finally, the instant study has highlighted the utility of these results to facilitate better water framework directive for inland waterways.

Stronger predation intensity and impact on prey communities in the tropics

The hypothesis that biotic interactions strengthen toward lower latitudes provides a framework for linking community-scale processes with the macroecological scales that define our biosphere. Despite the importance of this hypothesis for understanding community assembly and ecosystem functioning, the extent to which interaction strength varies across latitude and the effects of this variation on natural communities remain unresolved. Predation in particular is central to ecological and evolutionary dynamics across the globe, yet very few studies explore both community-scale causes and outcomes of predation across latitude. Here we expand beyond prior studies to examine two important components of predation strength: intensity of predation (including multiple dimensions of the predator guild) and impact on prey community biomass and structure, providing one of the most comprehensive examinations of predator-prey interactions across latitude. Using standardized experiments, we tested the hypothesis that predation intensity and impact on prey communities were stronger at lower latitudes. We further assessed prey recruitment to evaluate the potential for this process to mediate predation effects. We used sessile marine invertebrate communities and their fish predators in nearshore environments as a model system, with experiments conducted at 12 sites in four regions spanning the tropics to the subarctic. Our results show clear support for an increase in both predation intensity and impact at lower relative to higher latitudes. The predator guild was more diverse at low latitudes, with higher predation rates, longer interaction durations, and larger predator body sizes, suggesting stronger predation intensity in the tropics. Predation also reduced prey biomass and altered prey composition at low latitudes, with no effects at high latitudes. Although recruitment rates were up to three orders of magnitude higher in the tropics than the subarctic, prey replacement through this process was insufficient to dampen completely the strong impacts of predators in the tropics. Our study provides a novel perspective on the biotic interaction hypothesis, suggesting that multiple components of the predator community likely contribute to predation intensity at low latitudes, with important consequences for the structure of prey communities.

Improving the understanding of central Bohai Sea eutrophication based on wintertime dissolved inorganic nutrient budgets: Roles of north Yellow Sea water intrusion and atmospheric nitrogen deposition

The Bohai Sea is a shallow-water, semi-enclosed marginal sea of the Northwest Pacific. Since the late 1990s, it has suffered from nutrient over-enrichment. To better understand the eutrophication characteristics of this important coastal sea, we examined four survey datasets from summer (June 2011), late autumn (November 2011), winter (January 2016), and early spring (April 2018). Nutrient conditions in the Bohai Sea were subject to seasonal and regional variations. Survey-averaged N/P ratios in estuarine and nearshore areas were 20-133. In contrast, the central Bohai Sea had mean N/P ratios of 16.9 ± 3.4 in late autumn, 16.1 ± 3.0 in winter and 13.5 ± 5.8 in early spring, which are close to the traditional N:P Redfield ratio of 16. In summer, both dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and dissolved inorganic phosphate (DIP) were used up in the surface waters of the central Bohai Sea, suggesting that the biological consumption of DIN and DIP may also follow the Redfield ratio. Wintertime nutrient budgets of the central Bohai Sea water were then established based on a mass balance study. Our results suggest that the adjacent North Yellow Sea supplied additional DIP to the central Bohai Sea via wintertime water intrusion, balancing terrigenous excess DIN that was introduced in summer. A water-mixing simulation combining these two nutrient sources with atmospheric nitrogen deposition suggests that eutrophication in the central Bohai Sea will likely be enhanced by the large-scale accumulation of anthropogenic nitrogen in adjacent open oceans. Such changes in nutrients may have fundamentally contributed to the recent development of algal blooms and seasonal hypoxia in the central Bohai Sea.

Hydrodynamic Modeling Coupled with Long-term Field Data Provide Evidence for Suppression of Phytoplankton by Invasive Clams and Freshwater Exports in the San Francisco Estuary

The San Francisco Estuary (California, USA) had abundant pelagic fish in the late 1960s, but has few pelagic fish today. A primary cause for this decline in fish is thought to be a trophic cascade, triggered by declining phytoplankton. Here, we describe the changes in pelagic community structure of the San Francisco Estuary. Then, we examine whether changes in hydrodynamics due to freshwater exports, which increased exponentially beginning in 1967, in addition to the 1986 invasion by the clam Potamocorbula amurensis, explain the phytoplankton loss. Hydrodynamic variables were reconstructed back to 1956 using statistical models fit to, and cross-validated against, output from a hydrodynamic model. Then, we regressed mean summer/fall chlorophyll a-the season with the largest phytoplankton decline-against the reconstructed hydrodynamic variables and the presence/absence of P. amurensis for 1969-2014. The regression model, which explained 78% of the interannual variation in chlorophyll a, was then used to quantify the influence of P. amurensis and exports on chlorophyll a. Based on monitoring data, chlorophyll a declined 22-fold from 1969-2014, zooplankton declined 32-fold from 1972-2014, and pelagic fish declined 92-fold from 1968-2014. Averaged over 1990-2014, the chlorophyll a model ascribed an 88% decline in chlorophyll a to P. amurensis, a 74% decline to exports (at minimum), and a 97% decline to the combined influence of P. amurensis and exports (at minimum). Thus, the decline in pelagic productivity in the San Francisco Estuary has occurred largely due to the combined impacts of the P. amurensis invasion and increased freshwater exports.

Long-term trends, current status, and transitions of water quality in Chesapeake Bay

Coincident climatic and human effects strongly influence water-quality properties in estuarine-coastal ecosystems around the world. Time-series data for a number of ecosystems reveal high spatio-temporal variability superimposed on secular trends traceable to nutrient over-enrichment. In this paper, we present new analyses of long-term data for Chesapeake Bay directed at several goals: (1) to distinguish trends from spatio-temporal variability imposed by climatic effects; (2) to assess long-term trends of water-quality properties reflecting degradation and recovery; (3) to propose numerical water-quality criteria as targets for restoration; (4) to assess progress toward attainment of these targets. The bay has experienced multiple impairments associated with nutrient over-enrichment since World War II, e.g., low dissolved oxygen (DO), decreased water clarity, and harmful algal blooms (HAB). Anthropogenic eutrophication has been expressed as increased chlorophyll-a (chl-a) driven by accelerated nutrient loading from 1945 to 1980. Management intervention led to decreased loading thereafter, but deleterious symptoms of excess nutrients persist. Climatic effects exemplified by irregular "dry" and "wet" periods in the last 30+ years largely explain high inter-annual variability of water-quality properties, requiring adjustments to resolve long-term trends. Here, we extend these analyses at a finer temporal scale to six decades of chl-a, Secchi depth, and nitrite plus nitrate (NO2 + NO3) data to support trend analyses and the development of numerical water-quality criteria. The proposed criteria build on a conceptual model emphasizing the need to distinguish climatic and human effects in gauging progress to reverse eutrophication in estuarine-coastal ecosystems.

A deep learning-enabled portable imaging flow cytometer for cost-effective, high-throughput, and label-free analysis of natural water samples

We report a deep learning-enabled field-portable and cost-effective imaging flow cytometer that automatically captures phase-contrast color images of the contents of a continuously flowing water sample at a throughput of 100 mL/h. The device is based on partially coherent lens-free holographic microscopy and acquires the diffraction patterns of flowing micro-objects inside a microfluidic channel. These holographic diffraction patterns are reconstructed in real time using a deep learning-based phase-recovery and image-reconstruction method to produce a color image of each micro-object without the use of external labeling. Motion blur is eliminated by simultaneously illuminating the sample with red, green, and blue light-emitting diodes that are pulsed. Operated by a laptop computer, this portable device measures 15.5 cm × 15 cm × 12.5 cm, weighs 1 kg, and compared to standard imaging flow cytometers, it provides extreme reductions of cost, size and weight while also providing a high volumetric throughput over a large object size range. We demonstrated the capabilities of this device by measuring ocean samples at the Los Angeles coastline and obtaining images of its micro- and nanoplankton composition. Furthermore, we measured the concentration of a potentially toxic alga (Pseudo-nitzschia) in six public beaches in Los Angeles and achieved good agreement with measurements conducted by the California Department of Public Health. The cost-effectiveness, compactness, and simplicity of this computational platform might lead to the creation of a network of imaging flow cytometers for large-scale and continuous monitoring of the ocean microbiome, including its plankton composition.

Climate drivers and animal host use determine kelp performance over decadal scales in the kelp Pleurophycus gardneri (Laminariales, Phaeophyceae)

Primary producers respond to climate directly and indirectly due to effects on their consumers. In the temperate coastal ocean, the highly productive brown algae known as kelp have both strong climate and grazer linkages. We analyzed the demographic response of the kelp Pleurophycus gardneri over a 25-year span to determine the interaction between ocean climate indicators and invertebrate infestation rates. Pleurophycus hosts amphipod species that burrow in the stipe, increasing mortality. Although kelp performance is generally greater with more negative values of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and colder seawater temperatures, Pleurophycus showed the opposite pattern. When we compared the 1990s, a period of positive values for the PDO and warmer sea surface temperatures, with the following decade, a period characterized by negative PDO values, we documented a contradictory outcome for proxies of kelp fitness. In the 1990s, Pleurophycus unexpectedly showed greater longevity, faster growth, greater reproductive effort, and a trend toward decreased amphipod infestation compared with the 2006-2012 period. In contrast, the period from 2006 to 2012 showed opposite kelp performance patterns and with a trend toward greater amphipod infestation. Pleurophycus performance metrics suggest that some coastal primary producers will respond differently to climate drivers, particularly if they interact strongly with grazers.

Dry and wet periods drive rapid shifts in community assembly in an estuarine ecosystem

The impacts of changing climate regimes on emergent processes controlling the assembly of ecological communities remain poorly understood. Human alterations to the water cycle in the western United States have resulted in greater interannual variability and more frequent and severe extremes in freshwater flow. The specific mechanisms through which such extremes and climate regime shifts may alter ecological communities have rarely been demonstrated, and baseline information on current impacts of environmental variation is widely lacking for many habitats and communities. Here, we used observations and experiments to show that interannual variation in winter salinity levels in San Francisco Bay controls the mechanisms determining sessile invertebrate community composition during the following summer. We found consistent community changes in response to decadal-scale dry and wet extremes during a 13-year period, producing strikingly different communities. Our results match theoretical predictions of major shifts in species composition in response to environmental forcing up to a threshold, beyond which we observed mass mortality and wholesale replacement of the former community. These results provide a window into potential future community changes, with environmental forcing altering communities by shifting the relative influences of the mechanisms controlling species distributions and abundances. We place these results in the context of historical and projected future environmental variation in the San Francisco Bay Estuary.

Benthic pelagic coupling in a mesocosm experiment: Delayed sediment responses and regime shifts

A mesocosm experiment was performed to study benthic-pelagic coupling under a eutrophication gradient. Nine mesocosms were deployed in the facilities of the Hellenic Center for Marine Research in Crete, in the Eastern Mediterranean. The mesocosms were 4m deep, containing 1.5m³ of coastal water and, at the bottom, they included 85l of undisturbed sediment, collected from a semi-impacted area in the port of Heraklion, Crete. A eutrophication gradient was created by adding nutrients in the water column (Low and High) and the experiment lasted 58days. Water column and sediment environmental variables were measured at regular intervals. The results indicate that sedimentation caused by eutrophication in the water column affected sediment geochemical variables but in most cases a time lag was observed between the trophic status of the water column and the response of the sediment. Additionally, in the High eutrophication treatment, several fluctuations were observed and the system did not recover within the experimental duration, as opposed to the Low treatment which showed fewer fluctuations and signs of recovery.

Novel Analyses of Long-Term Data Provide a Scientific Basis for Chlorophyll-a Thresholds in San Francisco Bay

San Francisco Bay (SFB), USA, is highly enriched in nitrogen and phosphorus, but has been resistant to the classic symptoms of eutrophication associated with over-production of phytoplankton. Observations in recent years suggest that this resistance may be weakening, shown by: significant increases of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) and decreases of dissolved oxygen (DO), common occurrences of phytoplankton taxa that can form Harmful Algal Blooms (HAB), and algal toxins in water and mussels reaching levels of concern. As a result, managers now ask: what levels of chl-a in SFB constitute tipping points of phytoplankton biomass beyond which water quality will become degraded, requiring significant nutrient reductions to avoid impairments? We analyzed data for DO, phytoplankton species composition, chl-a, and algal toxins to derive quantitative relationships between three indicators (HAB abundance, toxin concentrations, DO) and chl-a. Quantile regressions relating HAB abundance and DO to chl-a were significant, indicating SFB is at increased risk of adverse HAB and low DO levels if chl-a continues to increase. Conditional probability analysis (CPA) showed chl-a of 13 mg m-3 as a "protective" threshold below which probabilities for exceeding alert levels for HAB abundance and toxins were reduced. This threshold was similar to chl-a of 13 - 16 mg m-3 that would meet a SFB-wide 80 % saturation Water Quality Criterion (WQC) for DO. Higher "at risk" chl-a thresholds from 25 - 40 mg m-3 corresponded to 0.5 probability of exceeding alert levels for HAB abundance, and for DO below a WQC of 5.0 mg L-1 designated for lower South Bay (LSB) and South Bay (SB). We submit these thresholds as a basis to assess eutrophication status of SFB and to inform nutrient management actions. This approach is transferrable to other estuaries to derive chl-a thresholds protective against eutrophication.

Estuary-ocean connectivity: fast physics, slow biology

Estuaries are connected to both land and ocean so their physical, chemical, and biological dynamics are influenced by climate patterns over watersheds and ocean basins. We explored climate-driven oceanic variability as a source of estuarine variability by comparing monthly time series of temperature and chlorophyll-a inside San Francisco Bay with those in adjacent shelf waters of the California Current System (CCS) that are strongly responsive to wind-driven upwelling. Monthly temperature fluctuations inside and outside the Bay were synchronous, but their correlations weakened with distance from the ocean. These results illustrate how variability of coastal water temperature (and associated properties such as nitrate and oxygen) propagates into estuaries through fast water exchanges that dissipate along the estuary. Unexpectedly, there was no correlation between monthly chlorophyll-a variability inside and outside the Bay. However, at the annual scale Bay chlorophyll-a was significantly correlated with the Spring Transition Index (STI) that sets biological production supporting fish recruitment in the CCS. Wind forcing of the CCS shifted in the late 1990s when the STI advanced 40 days. This shift was followed, with lags of 1-3 years, by 3- to 19-fold increased abundances of five ocean-produced demersal fish and crustaceans and 2.5-fold increase of summer chlorophyll-a in the Bay. These changes reflect a slow biological process of estuary-ocean connectivity operating through the immigration of fish and crustaceans that prey on bivalves, reduce their grazing pressure, and allow phytoplankton biomass to build. We identified clear signals of climate-mediated oceanic variability in this estuary and discovered that the response patterns vary with the process of connectivity and the timescale of ocean variability. This result has important implications for managing nutrient inputs to estuaries connected to upwelling systems, and for assessing their responses to changing patterns of upwelling timing and intensity as the planet continues to warm.

Decline in methylmercury in museum-preserved bivalves from San Francisco Bay, California

There are ongoing efforts to manage mercury and nutrient pollution in San Francisco Bay (California, USA), but historical data on biological responses are limited. We used bivalves preserved in formalin or ethanol from museum collections to investigate long-term trends in methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations and carbon and nitrogen isotopic signatures. In the southern reach of the estuary, South Bay, MeHg in the Asian date mussel (Musculista senhousia) significantly declined over the study duration (1970 to 2012). Mean MeHg concentrations were highest (218ng/g dry weight, dw) in 1975 and declined 3.8-fold (to 57ng/g dw) by 2012. This decrease corresponded with closure of the New Almaden Mercury Mines and was consistent with previously observed declines in sediment core mercury concentrations. In contrast, across all sites, MeHg in the overbite clam (Potamocorbula amurensis) increased 1.3-fold from 64ng/g dw before 2000 to 81ng/g dw during the 2000s and was higher than in M. senhousia. Pearson correlation coefficients of the association between MeHg and δ¹³C or δ¹⁵N provided no evidence that food web alterations explained changing MeHg concentrations. However, isotopic composition shifted temporally. South Bay bivalve δ¹⁵N increased from 12‰ in the 1970s to 18‰ in 2012. This increase corresponded with increasing nitrogen loadings from wastewater treatment plants until the late 1980s and increasing phytoplankton biomass from the 1990s to 2012. Similarly, a 3‰ decline in δ¹³C from 2002 to 2012 may represent greater utilization of planktonic food sources. In a complimentary 90day laboratory study to validate use of these preserved specimens, preservation had only minor effects (<0.5‰) on δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N. MeHg increased following preservation but then stabilized. These are the first documented long-term trends in biota MeHg and stable isotopes in this heavily impacted estuary and support the utility of preserved specimens to infer contaminant and biogeochemical trends.

Mercury concentration in phytoplankton in response to warming of an autumn - winter season

Among other climate changes in the southern Baltic, there is a tendency towards warming, especially in autumn-winter. As a result, the ice cover on the coastal zone often fails to occur. This is conducive to the thriving of phytoplankton, in which metals, including mercury, can be accumulated. The dry deposition of atmospheric Hg during heating seasons is more intense than in non-heating seasons, owing to the combustion of fossil fuels for heating purposes. This has resulted in studies into the role of phytoplankton in the introduction of Hg into the first link of trophic chain, as a function of autumn and winter warming in the coastal zone of the lagoon. The studies were conducted at two stations in the coastal zone of the southern Baltic, in the Puck Lagoon, between December 2011 and May 2013. The obtained results show that, in the estuary region, the lack of ice cover can lead to a 30% increase and during an "extremely warm" autumn and winter an increase of up to three-fold in the mean annual Hg pool in phytoplankton (mass of Hg in phytoplankton per liter of seawater). The Hg content in phytoplankton was higher when Mesodinium rubrum was prevalent in the biomass, while the proportion of dinoflagellates was small.

Human activities and climate variability drive fast-paced change across the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2-5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine-coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.

Coupled Downscaled Climate Models and Ecophysiological Metrics Forecast Habitat Compression for an Endangered Estuarine Fish

Climate change is driving rapid changes in environmental conditions and affecting population and species’ persistence across spatial and temporal scales. Integrating climate change assessments into biological resource management, such as conserving endangered species, is a substantial challenge, partly due to a mismatch between global climate forecasts and local or regional conservation planning. Here, we demonstrate how outputs of global climate change models can be downscaled to the watershed scale, and then coupled with ecophysiological metrics to assess climate change effects on organisms of conservation concern. We employed models to estimate future water temperatures (2010–2099) under several climate change scenarios within the large heterogeneous San Francisco Estuary. We then assessed the warming effects on the endangered, endemic Delta Smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus, by integrating localized projected water temperatures with thermal sensitivity metrics (tolerance, spawning and maturation windows, and sublethal stress thresholds) across life stages. Lethal temperatures occurred under several scenarios, but sublethal effects resulting from chronic stressful temperatures were more common across the estuary (median >60 days above threshold for >50% locations by the end of the century). Behavioral avoidance of such stressful temperatures would make a large portion of the potential range of Delta Smelt unavailable during the summer and fall. Since Delta Smelt are not likely to migrate to other estuaries, these changes are likely to result in substantial habitat compression. Additionally, the Delta Smelt maturation window was shortened by 18–85 days, revealing cumulative effects of stressful summer and fall temperatures with early initiation of spring spawning that may negatively impact fitness. Our findings highlight the value of integrating sublethal thresholds, life history, and in situ thermal heterogeneity into global change impact assessments. As downscaled climate models are becoming widely available, we conclude that similar assessments at management-relevant scales will improve the scientific basis for resource management decisions.

Estuarine fish communities respond to climate variability over both river and ocean basins

Estuaries are dynamic environments at the land-sea interface that are strongly affected by interannual climate variability. Ocean-atmosphere processes propagate into estuaries from the sea, and atmospheric processes over land propagate into estuaries from watersheds. We examined the effects of these two separate climate-driven processes on pelagic and demersal fish community structure along the salinity gradient in the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA. A 33-year data set (1980-2012) on pelagic and demersal fishes spanning the freshwater to marine regions of the estuary suggested the existence of five estuarine salinity fish guilds: limnetic (salinity = 0-1), oligohaline (salinity = 1-12), mesohaline (salinity = 6-19), polyhaline (salinity = 19-28), and euhaline (salinity = 29-32). Climatic effects propagating from the adjacent Pacific Ocean, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the euhaline and polyhaline guilds. Climatic effects propagating over land, indexed as freshwater outflow from the watershed (OUT), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the oligohaline, mesohaline, polyhaline, and euhaline guilds. The effects of OUT propagated further down the estuary salinity gradient than the effects of NPGO that propagated up the estuary salinity gradient, exemplifying the role of variable freshwater outflow as an important driver of biotic communities in river-dominated estuaries. These results illustrate how unique sources of climate variability interact to drive biotic communities and, therefore, that climate change is likely to be an important driver in shaping the future trajectory of biotic communities in estuaries and other transitional habitats.

Climate mediates hypoxic stress on fish diversity and nursery function at the land-sea interface

Coastal ecosystems provide numerous important ecological services, including maintenance of biodiversity and nursery grounds for many fish species of ecological and economic importance. However, human population growth has led to increased pollution, ocean warming, hypoxia, and habitat alteration that threaten ecosystem services. In this study, we used long-term datasets of fish abundance, water quality, and climatic factors to assess the threat of hypoxia and the regulating effects of climate on fish diversity and nursery conditions in Elkhorn Slough, a highly eutrophic estuary in central California (United States), which also serves as a biodiversity hot spot and critical nursery grounds for offshore fisheries in a broader region. We found that hypoxic conditions had strong negative effects on extent of suitable fish habitat, fish species richness, and abundance of the two most common flatfish species, English sole (Parophrys vetulus) and speckled sanddab (Citharichthys stigmaeus). The estuary serves as an important nursery ground for English sole, making this species vulnerable to anthropogenic threats. We determined that estuarine hypoxia was associated with significant declines in English sole nursery habitat, with cascading effects on recruitment to the offshore adult population and fishery, indicating that human land use activities can indirectly affect offshore fisheries. Estuarine hypoxic conditions varied spatially and temporally and were alleviated by strengthening of El Niño conditions through indirect pathways, a consistent result in most estuaries across the northeast Pacific. These results demonstrate that changes to coastal land use and climate can fundamentally alter the diversity and functioning of coastal nurseries and their adjacent ocean ecosystems.

Impact of nutrition and salinity changes on biological performances of green and white sturgeon

Green and white sturgeon are species of high conservational and economic interest, particularly in the San Francisco Bay Delta (SFBD) for which significant climate change-derived alterations in salinity and nutritional patterns are forecasted. Although there is paucity of information, it is critical to test the network of biological responses underlying the capacity of animals to tolerate current environmental changes. Through nutrition and salinity challenges, climate change will likely have more physiological effect on young sturgeon stages, which in turn may affect growth performance. In this study, the two species were challenged in a multiple-factor experimental setting, first to levels of feeding rate, and then to salinity levels for different time periods. Data analysis included generalized additive models to select predictors of growth performance (measured by condition factor) among the environmental stressors considered and a suite of physiological variables. Using structural equation modeling, a path diagram is proposed to quantify the main linkages among nutrition status, salinity, osmoregulation variables, and growth performances. Three major trends were anticipated for the growth performance of green and white sturgeon in the juvenile stage in the SFBD: (i) a decrease in prey abundance will be highly detrimental for the growth of both species; (ii) an acute increase in salinity within the limits studied can be tolerated by both species but possibly the energy spent in osmoregulation may affect green sturgeon growth within the time window assessed; (iii) the mechanism of synergistic effects of nutrition and salinity changes will be more complex in green sturgeon, with condition factor responding nonlinearly to interactions of salinity and nutrition status or time of salinity exposure. Green sturgeon merits special scientific attention and conservation effort to offset the effects of feed restriction and salinity as key environmental stressors in the SFBD.

Changes to chronic nitrogen loading from sewage discharges modify standing stocks of coastal phytoplankton

Nutrient delivery in subtropical coastal systems is predominantly via acute episodic high flow events. However, continuous nutrient discharges from point sources alter these natural fluctuations in nutrient delivery, and are therefore likely to lead to different ecosystem responses. The aim of this study was to assess how a reduction in chronic sewage nutrient inputs affected chlorophyll a (chl a) concentrations in a subtropical bay, in the context of seasonal fluctuations in riverine nutrient inflows. Reduced nutrient inputs from a large sewage treatment plant (STP) resulted in lower mean dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phytoplankton chl a concentrations during both the austral summer wet and winter dry season. This was measurable within 10 y of nutrient reductions and despite the confounding effects of nutrient inflow events. Our study demonstrates that reductions in STP inputs can have significant effects on phytoplankton biomass despite confounding factors over relatively short time frames.

An 'extreme' future for estuaries? Effects of extreme climatic events on estuarine water quality and ecology

Recent climate observations suggest that extreme climatic events (ECE; droughts, floods, tropical cyclones, heat waves) have increased in frequency and/or intensity in certain world regions, consistent with climate model projections that account for man's influence on the global climate system. A synthesis of existing literature is presented and shows that ECE affect estuarine water quality by altering: (1) the delivery and processing of nutrients and organic matter, (2) physical-chemical properties of estuaries, and (3) ecosystem structure and function. From the standpoint of estuarine scientists and resource managers, a major scientific challenge will be to project the estuarine response to ECE that will co-occur with other important environmental changes (i.e., natural climate variability, global warming, sea level rise, eutrophication), as this will affect the provisioning of important ecosystem services provided by estuaries.

Reducing methylmercury accumulation in the food webs of San Francisco Bay and its local watersheds

San Francisco Bay (California, USA) and its local watersheds present an interesting case study in estuarine mercury (Hg) contamination. This review focuses on the most promising avenues for attempting to reduce methylmercury (MeHg) contamination in Bay Area aquatic food webs and identifying the scientific information that is most urgently needed to support these efforts. Concern for human exposure to MeHg in the region has led to advisories for consumption of sport fish. Striped bass from the Bay have the highest average Hg concentration measured for this species in USA estuaries, and this degree of contamination has been constant for the past 40 years. Similarly, largemouth bass in some Bay Area reservoirs have some of the highest Hg concentrations observed in the entire US. Bay Area wildlife, particularly birds, face potential impacts to reproduction based on Hg concentrations in the tissues of several Bay species. Source control of Hg is one of the primary possible approaches for reducing MeHg accumulation in Bay Area aquatic food webs. Recent findings (particularly Hg isotope measurements) indicate that the decades-long residence time of particle-associated Hg in the Bay is sufficient to allow significant conversion of even the insoluble forms of Hg into MeHg. Past inputs have been thoroughly mixed throughout this shallow and dynamic estuary. The large pool of Hg already present in the ecosystem dominates the fraction converted to MeHg and accumulating in the food web. Consequently, decreasing external Hg inputs can be expected to reduce MeHg in the food web, but it will likely take many decades to centuries before those reductions are achieved. Extensive efforts to reduce loads from the largest Hg mining source (the historic New Almaden mining district) are underway. Hg is spread widely across the urban landscape, but there are a number of key sources, source areas, and pathways that provide opportunities to capture larger quantities of Hg and reduce loads from urban runoff. Atmospheric deposition is a lower priority for source control in the Bay Area due to a combination of a lack of major local sources. Internal net production of MeHg is the dominant source of MeHg that enters the food web. Controlling internal net production is the second primary management approach, and has the potential to reduce food web MeHg in some habitats more effectively and within a much shorter time-frame. Controlling net MeHg production and accumulation in the food web of upstream reservoirs and ponds is very promising due to the many features of these ecosystems that can be manipulated. The most feasible control options in tidal marshes relate to the design of flow patterns and subhabitats in restoration projects. Options for controlling MeHg production in open Bay habitat are limited due primarily to the highly dispersed distribution of Hg throughout the ecosystem. Other changes in these habitats may also have a large influence on food web MeHg, including temperature changes due to global warming, sea level rise, food web alterations due to introduced species and other causes, and changes in sediment supply. Other options for reducing or mitigating exposure and risk include controlling bioaccumulation, cleanup of contaminated sites, and reducing other factors (e.g., habitat availability) that limit at-risk wildlife populations.

Dissolved organic matter reduces algal accumulation of methylmercury

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) significantly decreased accumulation of methylmercury (MeHg) by the diatom Cyclotella meneghiniana in laboratory experiments. Live diatom cells accumulated two to four times more MeHg than dead cells, indicating that accumulation may be partially an energy-requiring process. Methylmercury enrichment in diatoms relative to ambient water was measured by a volume concentration factor (VCF). Without added DOM, the maximum VCF was 32 × 10(4) , and the average VCF (from 10 to 72 h) over all experiments was 12.6 × 10(4) . At very low (1.5 mg/L) added DOM, VCFs dropped by approximately half. At very high (20 mg/L) added DOM, VCFs dropped 10-fold. Presumably, MeHg was bound to a variety of reduced sulfur sites on the DOM, making it unavailable for uptake. Diatoms accumulated significantly more MeHg when exposed to transphilic DOM extracts than hydrophobic ones. However, algal lysate, a labile type of DOM created by resuspending a marine diatom in freshwater, behaved similarly to a refractory DOM isolate from San Francisco Bay. Addition of 67 µM L-cysteine resulted in the largest drop in VCFs, to 0.28 × 10(4) . Although the DOM composition influenced the availability of MeHg to some extent, total DOM concentration was the most important factor in determining algal bioaccumulation of MeHg.

The annual cycles of phytoplankton biomass

Terrestrial plants are powerful climate sentinels because their annual cycles of growth, reproduction and senescence are finely tuned to the annual climate cycle having a period of one year. Consistency in the seasonal phasing of terrestrial plant activity provides a relatively low-noise background from which phenological shifts can be detected and attributed to climate change. Here, we ask whether phytoplankton biomass also fluctuates over a consistent annual cycle in lake, estuarine-coastal and ocean ecosystems and whether there is a characteristic phenology of phytoplankton as a consistent phase and amplitude of variability. We compiled 125 time series of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a concentration) from temperate and subtropical zones and used wavelet analysis to extract their dominant periods of variability and the recurrence strength at those periods. Fewer than half (48%) of the series had a dominant 12-month period of variability, commonly expressed as the canonical spring-bloom pattern. About 20 per cent had a dominant six-month period of variability, commonly expressed as the spring and autumn or winter and summer blooms of temperate lakes and oceans. These annual patterns varied in recurrence strength across sites, and did not persist over the full series duration at some sites. About a third of the series had no component of variability at either the six- or 12-month period, reflecting a series of irregular pulses of biomass. These findings show that there is high variability of annual phytoplankton cycles across ecosystems, and that climate-driven annual cycles can be obscured by other drivers of population variability, including human disturbance, aperiodic weather events and strong trophic coupling between phytoplankton and their consumers. Regulation of phytoplankton biomass by multiple processes operating at multiple time scales adds complexity to the challenge of detecting climate-driven trends in aquatic ecosystems where the noise to signal ratio is high.

Triphenyltin induced growth inhibition and antioxidative responses in the green microalga Scenedesmus quadricauda

The toxicity of organotin compounds in the environment is closely related to their uptake by microorganisms and delivery through the food chain. The population at low trophic levels like microalgae plays an important role in this aspect. In this study, the toxic effects of triphenyltin (TPT) on Scenedesmus quadricauda were assessed at the population, cellular and subcellular levels. The alga was exposed to TPT of up to 64 μg l(-1) (nearly lethal concentration), but the algal growth was inhibited significantly when TPT was elevated to 8 μg l(-1). This growth inhibition was correlated to the presence of oxidative stress as evidenced by the accumulation of malondialdehyde (MDA) and confirmed by fluorescent probing of the intracellular reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels. The imbalanced activities of superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT) and glutathione peroxidase (GPx) may lead to an accumulation of intracellular H(2)O(2), which can initiate an oxidative damage to cell components and cause growth inhibition and finally cell death. The detachment of plasma membrane from cell wall, the structural change of chloroplasts as well as the increased number and size of starch granules together with electron-dense deposits in chloroplasts were noticed through electron microscopic examination. It was suggested that mitochondria, chloroplasts and protoplasm might be the direct targets of TPT toxicity. This study confirmed that TPT poisoning on phytoplankton can happen at very low concentrations. There existed different defense mechanisms e.g., antioxidant enzyme activation, starch accumulation and possibly metal sequestration in algal species as the means to resist TPT toxicity.

Water quality in South San Francisco Bay, California: current condition and potential issues for the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project

The SBSPRP is an extensive tidal wetland restoration project that is underway at the margin of South San Francisco Bay, California. The Project, which aims to restore former salt ponds to tidal marsh and manage other ponds for water bird support, is taking place in the context of a highly urbanized watershed and an Estuary already impacted by chemical contaminants. There is an intimate relationship between water quality in the watershed, the Bay, and the transitional wetland areas where the Project is located. The Project seeks to restore habitat for endangered and endemic species and to provide recreational opportunities for people. Therefore, water quality and bioaccumulation of contaminants in fish and wildlife is an important concern for the success of the Project. Mercury, PCBs, and PBDEs are the persistent contaminants of greatest concern in the region. All of these contaminants are present at elevated concentrations both in the abiotic environment and in wildlife. Dioxins, pyrethroids, PAHs, and selenium are also problematic. Organochlorine insecticides have historically impacted the Bay, and they remain above thresholds for concern in a small proportion of samples. Emerging contaminants, such as PFCs and non-PBDE flame retardants, are also an important water quality issue. Beyond chemical pollutants, other concerns for water quality in South San Francisco Bay exist, and include biological constituents, especially invasive species, and chemical attributes, such as dissolved oxygen and salinity. Future changes, both from within the Project and from the Bay and watershed, are likely to influence water quality in the region. Project actions to restore wetlands could worsen, improve, or not affect the already impaired water quality in South Bay. Accelerated erosion of buried sediment as a consequence of Project restoration actions is a potentially serious regional threat to South Bay water and sediment quality. Furthermore, the planned restoration of salt ponds to tidal marsh has raised concerns about possible increased net production of methylmercury and its subsequent accumulation in the food web. This concern applies not only to the restored marshes, but also to the South Bay as a whole, which could be affected on a regional scale. The ponds that are converted to tidal marsh will sequester millions of cubic meters of sediment. Sequestration of sediment in marshes could remove contaminated sediment from the active zone of the Bay but could also create marshes with contaminated food webs. Some of the ponds will not be restored to marsh but will be managed for use by water birds. Therefore, the effect of dense avian populations on eutrophication and the introduction of pathogens should be considered. Water quality in the Project also could be affected by external changes, such as human population growth and climate change. To address these many concerns related to water quality, the SBSPRP managers, and others faced with management of wetland restoration at a regional scale, should practice adaptive management and ongoing monitoring for water quality, particularly monitoring bioaccumulation of contaminants in the food web.

Decline in top predator body size and changing climate alter trophic structure in an oceanic ecosystem

Globally, overfishing large-bodied groundfish populations has resulted in substantial increases in their prey populations. Where it has been examined, the effects of overfishing have cascaded down the food chain. In an intensively fished area on the western Scotian Shelf, Northwest Atlantic, the biomass of prey species increased exponentially (doubling time of 11 years) even though the aggregate biomass of their predators remained stable over 38 years. Concomitant reductions in herbivorous zooplankton and increases in phytoplankton were also evident. This anomalous trophic pattern led us to examine how declines in predator body size (approx. 60% in body mass since the early 1970s) and climatic regime influenced lower trophic levels. The increase in prey biomass was associated primarily with declines in predator body size and secondarily to an increase in stratification. Sea surface temperature and predator biomass had no influence. A regression model explained 65 per cent of prey biomass variability. Trait-mediated effects, namely a reduction in predator size, resulted in a weakening of top predation pressure. Increased stratification may have enhanced growing conditions for prey fish. Size-selective harvesting under changing climatic conditions initiated a trophic restructuring of the food chain, the effects of which may have influenced three trophic levels.

The life of diatoms in the world's oceans

Marine diatoms rose to prominence about 100 million years ago and today generate most of the organic matter that serves as food for life in the sea. They exist in a dilute world where compounds essential for growth are recycled and shared, and they greatly influence global climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and marine ecosystem function. How these essential organisms will respond to the rapidly changing conditions in today's oceans is critical for the health of the environment and is being uncovered by studies of their genomes.