Niche and neutral models predict asymptotically equivalent species abundance distributions in high-diversity ecological communities

Detecting the ecological footprint of selection

The structure of communities is influenced by many ecological and evolutionary processes, but the way these manifest in classic biodiversity patterns often remains unclear. Here we aim to distinguish the ecological footprint of selection-through competition or environmental filtering-from that of neutral processes that are invariant to species identity. We build on existing Massive Eco-evolutionary Synthesis Simulations (MESS), which uses information from three biodiversity axes-species abundances, genetic diversity, and trait variation-to distinguish between mechanistic processes. To correctly detect and characterise competition, we add a new and more realistic form of competition that explicitly compares the traits of each pair of individuals. Our results are qualitatively different to those of previous work in which competition is based on the distance of each individual's trait to the community mean. We find that our new form of competition is easier to identify in empirical data compared to the alternatives. This is especially true when trait data are available and used in the inference procedure. Our findings hint that signatures in empirical data previously attributed to neutrality may in fact be the result of pairwise-acting selective forces. We conclude that gathering more different types of data, together with more advanced mechanistic models and inference as done here, could be the key to unravelling the mechanisms of community assembly and question the relative roles of neutral and selective processes.

A tiny fraction of all species forms most of nature: Rarity as a sticky state

Using data from a wide range of natural communities including the human microbiome, plants, fish, mushrooms, rodents, beetles, and trees, we show that universally just a few percent of the species account for most of the biomass. This is in line with the classical observation that the vast bulk of biodiversity is very rare. Attempts to find traits allowing the tiny fraction of abundant species to escape rarity have remained unsuccessful. Here, we argue that this might be explained by the fact that hyper-dominance can emerge through stochastic processes. We demonstrate that in neutrally competing groups of species, rarity tends to become a trap if environmental fluctuations result in gains and losses proportional to abundances. This counter-intuitive phenomenon arises because absolute change tends to zero for very small abundances, causing rarity to become a "sticky state", a pseudoattractor that can be revealed numerically in classical ball-in-cup landscapes. As a result, the vast majority of species spend most of their time in rarity leaving space for just a few others to dominate the neutral community. However, fates remain stochastic. Provided that there is some response diversity, roles occasionally shift as stochastic events or natural enemies bring an abundant species down allowing a rare species to rise to dominance. Microbial time series spanning thousands of generations support this prediction. Our results suggest that near-neutrality within niches may allow numerous rare species to persist in the wings of the dominant ones. Stand-ins may serve as insurance when former key species collapse.

Assessing mechanisms for microbial taxa and community dynamics using process models

Disentangling the assembly mechanisms controlling community composition, structure, distribution, functions, and dynamics is a central issue in ecology. Although various approaches have been proposed to examine community assembly mechanisms, quantitative characterization is challenging, particularly in microbial ecology. Here, we present a novel approach for quantitatively delineating community assembly mechanisms by combining the consumer-resource model with a neutral model in stochastic differential equations. Using time-series data from anaerobic bioreactors that target microbial 16S rRNA genes, we tested the applicability of three ecological models: the consumer-resource model, the neutral model, and the combined model. Our results revealed that model performances varied substantially as a function of population abundance and/or process conditions. The combined model performed best for abundant taxa in the treatment bioreactors where process conditions were manipulated. In contrast, the neutral model showed the best performance for rare taxa. Our analysis further indicated that immigration rates decreased with taxa abundance and competitions between taxa were strongly correlated with phylogeny, but within a certain phylogenetic distance only. The determinism underlying taxa and community dynamics were quantitatively assessed, showing greater determinism in the treatment bioreactors that aligned with the subsequent abnormal system functioning. Given its mechanistic basis, the framework developed here is expected to be potentially applicable beyond microbial ecology.

Deterministic processes dominate archaeal community assembly from the Pearl River to the northern South China Sea

Archaea play a significant role in the biogeochemical cycling of nutrients in estuaries. However, comprehensive researches about their assembly processes remain notably insufficient. In this study, we systematically examined archaeal community dynamics distinguished between low-salinity and high-salinity groups in water and surface sediments over a 600-kilometer range from the upper Pearl River (PR) to the northern South China Sea (NSCS). Neutral community model analysis together with null model analysis showed that their C-score values were greater than 2, suggesting that deterministic processes could dominate the assembly of those planktonic or benthic archaeal communities at both the low-salinity and high-salinity sites. And deterministic processes contributed more in the low-salinity than high-salinity environments from the PR to the NSCS. Furthermore, through the co-occurrence network analysis, we found that the archaeal communities in the low-salinity groups possessed closer interactions and higher proportions of negative interactions than those in the high-salinity groups, which might be due to the larger environmental heterogeneities reflected by the nutrient concentrations of those low-salinity samples. Collectively, our work systematically investigated the composition and co-occurrence networks of archaeal communities in water as well as sediments from the PR to the NSCS, yielding new insights into the estuary's archaeal community assembly mechanisms.

Unveiling the transition from niche to dispersal assembly in ecology

A central goal in ecology is to understand what maintains species diversity in local communities. Classic ecological theory^1,2 posits that niches dictate the maximum number of species that can coexist in a community and that the richness of observed species will be below this maximum only where immigration is very low. A new alternative theory^3,4 is that niches, instead, dictate the minimum number of coexisting species and that the richness of observed species will usually be well above this because of ongoing immigration. We conducted an experimental test to discriminate between these two unified theories using a manipulative field experiment with tropical intertidal communities. We found, consistent with the new theory, that the relationship of species richness to immigration rate stabilized at a low value at low immigration rates and did not saturate at high immigration rates. Our results suggest that tropical intertidal communities have low niche diversity and are typically in a dispersal-assembled regime where immigration is high enough to overfill the niches. Observational data from other studies^3,5 suggest that these conclusions may generalize to other ecological systems. Our new experimental approach can be adapted for other systems and be used as a 'niche detector' and a tool for assessing when communities are niche versus dispersal assembled.

Community assembly and co-occurrence network complexity of interstitial microbial communities in the Arctic (investigation of ciliates in the White Sea intertidal zone)

Arctic coastal ecosystems play a major role in global environmental system and have been altered significantly by climate changes. To better understanding the response of marine coastal ecosystems towards rapid Arctic climate changes, we examined the variation in diversity and community structure and provided insights into the co-occurrence network and community assembly of interstitial ciliates in the Kandalaksha Gulf of the White Sea from 2009 to 2019. Co-occurrence networks analysis indicated considerably high ration of positive correlations within a community that indicated low competition between interstitial ciliate species. Furthermore, we found that contribution of stochastic processes to the ciliate community assembly was insignificant. Compare with earlier data from the same ecosystem obtained in 1980s-1990s, the role of competitive factors is decreasing, and communities are becoming more spatially and temporally homogeneous. This community simplification is likely due to the response of the entire intertidal ecosystem to global climate change in Arctic.

Unraveling Amazon tree community assembly using Maximum Information Entropy: a quantitative analysis of tropical forest ecology

In a time of rapid global change, the question of what determines patterns in species abundance distribution remains a priority for understanding the complex dynamics of ecosystems. The constrained maximization of information entropy provides a framework for the understanding of such complex systems dynamics by a quantitative analysis of important constraints via predictions using least biased probability distributions. We apply it to over two thousand hectares of Amazonian tree inventories across seven forest types and thirteen functional traits, representing major global axes of plant strategies. Results show that constraints formed by regional relative abundances of genera explain eight times more of local relative abundances than constraints based on directional selection for specific functional traits, although the latter does show clear signals of environmental dependency. These results provide a quantitative insight by inference from large-scale data using cross-disciplinary methods, furthering our understanding of ecological dynamics.

Mito-nuclear selection induces a trade-off between species ecological dominance and evolutionary lifespan

Mitochondrial and nuclear genomes must be co-adapted to ensure proper cellular respiration and energy production. Mito-nuclear incompatibility reduces individual fitness and induces hybrid infertility, which can drive reproductive barriers and speciation. Here, we develop a birth-death model for evolution in spatially extended populations under selection for mito-nuclear co-adaptation. Mating is constrained by physical and genetic proximity, and offspring inherit nuclear genomes from both parents, with recombination. The model predicts macroscopic patterns including a community's species diversity, species abundance distribution, speciation and extinction rates, as well as intraspecific and interspecific genetic variation. We explore how these long-term outcomes depend upon the parameters of reproduction: individual fitness governed by mito-nuclear compatibility, constraints on mating compatibility and ecological carrying capacity. We find that strong selection for mito-nuclear compatibility reduces the equilibrium number of species after a radiation, increasing species' abundances and simultaneously increasing both speciation and extinction rates. The negative correlation between species diversity and diversification rates in our model agrees with the broad empirical pattern of lower diversity and higher speciation/extinction rates in temperate regions, compared to the tropics. We conclude that these empirical patterns may be caused in part by latitudinal variation in metabolic demands and corresponding variation in selection for mito-nuclear function.

Controlling species densities in structurally perturbed intransitive cycles with higher-order interactions

The persistence of biodiversity of species is a challenging proposition in ecological communities in the face of Darwinian selection. The present article investigates beyond the pairwise competitive interactions and provides a novel perspective for understanding the influence of higher-order interactions on the evolution of social phenotypes. Our simple model yields a prosperous outlook to demonstrate the impact of perturbations on intransitive competitive higher-order interactions. Using a mathematical technique, we show how alone the perturbed interaction network can quickly determine the coexistence equilibrium of competing species instead of solving a large system of ordinary differential equations. It is possible to split the system into multiple feasible cluster states depending on the number of perturbations. Our analysis also reveals that the ratio between the unperturbed and perturbed species is inversely proportional to the amount of employed perturbation. Our results suggest that nonlinear dynamical systems and interaction topologies can be interplayed to comprehend species' coexistence under adverse conditions. Particularly, our findings signify that less competition between two species increases their abundance and outperforms others.

Community assembly and co-occurrence network complexity of pelagic ciliates in response to environmental heterogeneity affected by sea ice melting in the Ross Sea, Antarctica

In the Southern Ocean, the living environment of organisms has changed due to the dramatic increase in melting sea ice and the loss of glaciers, which have consequently caused substantial changes in biodiversity. Samples of pelagic ciliates from 13 sites were collected as bioindicators to demonstrate the relationship between spatial distribution patterns and environmental heterogeneity affected by sea ice melting and to reveal the community assembly mechanisms in the Ross Sea. Univariate analyses and multivariate analyses were effective tools demonstrating clear spatial patterns and providing a sufficient explanation to interpret strong correlations between pelagic ciliate communities and environmental variations, especially the distribution pattern of nutrients and Chl a. Moreover, environmental heterogeneity might affect the co-occurrence network complexity of ciliate communities. Furthermore, our results also indicated that stochastic processes play a significant role in the community assembly of pelagic ciliates. This study examined the controlling mechanisms of environmental heterogeneity affected by sea ice melting on pelagic ciliate communities and provided explanations for the community assembly of pelagic ciliates in polar marine ecosystems.

Niche-Neutral Continuum Seems to Explain the Global Niche Differentiation and Local Drift of the Human Digestive Tract Microbiome

The human digestive tract (DT) is differentiated into diverse niches and harbors the greatest microbiome diversity of our bodies. Segata et al. (2012) found that the microbiome of diverse habitats along the DT may be classified as four categories or niches with different microbial compositions and metabolic potentials. Nonetheless, few studies have offered theoretical interpretations of the observed patterns, not to mention quantitative mechanistic parameters. Such parameters should capture the essence of the fundamental processes that shape the microbiome distribution, beyond simple ecological metrics such as diversity or composition descriptors, which only capture the manifestations of the mechanisms. Here, we aim to get educated guesses for such parameters by adopting an integrated approach with multisite neutral (MSN) and niche-neutral hybrid (NNH) modeling, via reanalyzing Segata’s 16s-rRNA samples covering 10 DT-sites from over 200 healthy individuals. We evaluate the relative importance of the four essential processes (drift, dispersal, speciation, and selection) in shaping the microbiome distribution and dynamics along DT, which are assumed to form a niche-neutral continuum. Furthermore, the continuum seems to be hierarchical: the selection or niche differentiations seem to play a predominant role (> 90% based on NNH) at the global (the DT metacommunity) level, but the neutral drifts seem to be prevalent (> 90% based on MSN/NNH) at the local sites except for the gut site. An additional finding is that the DT appears to have a fifth niche for the DT microbiome, namely, Keratinized gingival (KG), while in Segata’s original study, only four niches were identified. Specifically, in Segata’s study, KG was classified into the same niche type including buccal mucosa (BM), hard palate (HP), and KG. However, it should be emphasized that the proposal of the fifth niche of KG requires additional verification in the future studies.

The effect of microbial selection on the occurrence-abundance patterns of microbiomes

Theoretical models are useful to investigate the drivers of community dynamics. In the simplest case of neutral models, the events of death, birth and immigration of individuals are assumed to only depend on their abundance-thus, all types share the same parameters. The community level expectations arising from these simple models and their agreement to empirical data have been discussed extensively, often suggesting that in nature, rates might indeed be neutral or their differences might not be important. However, how robust are these model predictions to type-specific rates? Also, what are the consequences at the level of types? Here, we address these questions moving from simple neutral communities to heterogeneous communities. For this, we build a model where types are differently adapted to the environment. We compute the equilibrium distribution of the abundances. Then, we look into the occurrence-abundance pattern often reported in microbial communities. We observe that large immigration and biodiversity-common in microbial systems-lead to such patterns, regardless of whether the rates are neutral or non-neutral. We conclude by discussing the implications to interpret and test empirical data.

Further Quantifying the Niche-Neutral Continuum of Human Digestive Tract Microbiomes with Near Neutral Model and Stochasticity Analysis

It is postulated that the human digestive tract (DT) from mouth to intestine is differentiated into diverse niches. For example, Segata et al. discovered that the microbiomes of diverse habitats along the DT could be distinguished as 4 types (niches) including (i) stool; (ii) sub-gingival plaques (SubP) and supra-gingival plaques (SupP); (iii) tongue dorsum (TD), throat (TH), palatine tonsils (PT), and saliva (Sal); and (iv) hard palate (HP) and buccal mucosa (BM), and keratinized gingiva (KG). These niches are different not only in composition, but also in metabolic potentials. In a previous study, we applied Harris et al’s multi-site neutral and Tang and Zhou’s niche-neutral hybrid models to characterize the DT niches discovered by Segata et al. Here, we complement the previous study by applying Sloan’s near-neural model and Ning et al’s stochasticity analysis framework to quantify the niche-neutral continuum of the DT microbiome distribution to shed light on the possible ecological/evolutionary mechanism that shapes the continuum. Overall but excluding the stool site, the proportion of neutral OTUs (46%) is slightly higher than that of the positive selection (38%), but significantly higher than negative selection (15%). The gut (stool) exhibited 3 to 12 times lower neutrality than other DT sites. The analysis also cross-verified our previous hypothesis that the KG ( keratinized gingiva) is of distinct assembly dynamics in the DT microbiome, should be treated as a fifth niche. Our findings offer new insight on the long-standing debate concerning whether a minimum of 2-mm of KG width is necessary for marginal periodontal health.

Non-zero-sum neutrality test for the tropical rain forest community using long-term between-census data

For community ecologists, "neutral or not?" is a fundamental question, and thus, rejecting neutrality is an important first step before investigating the deterministic processes underlying community dynamics. Hubbell's neutral model is an important contribution to the exploration of community dynamics, both technically and philosophically. However, the neutrality tests for this model are limited by a lack of statistical power, partly because the zero-sum assumption of the model is unrealistic. In this study, we developed a neutrality test for local communities that implements non-zero-sum community dynamics and determines the number of new species (N sp) between observations. For the non-zero-sum neutrality test, the model distributed the expected N sp, as calculated by extensive simulations, which allowed us to investigate the neutrality of the observed community by comparing the observed N sp with distributions of the expected N sp derived from the simulations. For this comparison, we developed a new "non-zero-sum N sp test," which we validated by running multiple neutral simulations using different parameter settings. We found that the non-zero-sum N sp test rejected neutrality at a near-significance level, which justified the validity of our approach. For an empirical test, the non-zero-sum N sp test was applied to real tropical tree communities in Panama and Malaysia. The non-zero-sum N sp test rejected neutrality in both communities when the observation interval was long and N sp was large. Hence, the non-zero-sum N sp test is an effective way to examine neutrality and has reasonable statistical power to reject the neutral model, especially when the observed N sp is large. This unique and simple approach is statistically powerful, even though it only employs two temporal sequences of community data. Thus, this test can be easily applied to existing datasets. In addition, application of the test will provide significant benefits for detecting changing biodiversity under climate change and anthropogenic disturbance.

The Dynamic Hypercube as a Niche Community Model

Different models of community dynamics, such as the MacArthur–Wilson theory of island biogeography and Hubbell’s neutral theory, have given us useful insights into the workings of ecological communities. Here, we develop the niche-hypervolume concept of the community into a powerful model of community dynamics. We describe the community’s size through the volume of the hypercube and the dynamics of the populations in it through the fluctuations of the axes of the niche hypercube on different timescales. While the community’s size remains constant, the relative volumes of the niches within it change continuously, thus allowing the populations of different species to rise and fall in a zero-sum fashion. This dynamic hypercube model reproduces several key patterns in communities: lognormal species abundance distributions, 1/f-noise population abundance, multiscale patterns of extinction debt and logarithmic species-time curves. It also provides a powerful framework to explore significant ideas in ecology, such as the drift of ecological communities into evolutionary time.

Evaluating the Assembly Dynamics in the Human Vaginal Microbiomes With Niche-Neutral Hybrid Modeling

Using 2,733 longitudinal vaginal microbiome samples (representing local microbial communities) from 79 individuals (representing meta-communities) in the states of healthy, BV (bacterial vaginosis) and pregnancy, we assess and interpret the relative importance of stochastic forces (e.g., stochastic drifts in bacteria demography, and stochastic dispersal) vs. deterministic selection (e.g., host genome, and host physiology) in shaping the dynamics of human vaginal microbiome (HVM) diversity by an integrated analysis with multi-site neutral (MSN) and niche-neutral hybrid (NNH) modeling. It was found that, when the traditional “default” P-value = 0.05 was specified, the neutral drifts were predominant (≥50% metacommunities indistinguishable from the MSN prediction), while the niche differentiations were moderate (<20% from the NNH prediction). The study also analyzed two challenging uncertainties in testing the neutral and/or niche-neutral hybrid models, i.e., lack of full model specificity – non-unique fittings of same datasets to multiple models with potentially different mechanistic assumptions – and lack of definite rules for setting the P-value thresholds (also noted as P_t-value when referring to the threshold of P-value in this article) in testing null hypothesis (model). Indeed, the two uncertainties can be interdependent, which further complicates the statistical inferences. To deal with the uncertainties, the MSN/NNH test results under a series of P-values ranged from 0.05 to 0.95 were presented. Furthermore, the influence of P-value threshold-setting on the model specificity, and the effects of woman’s health status on the neutrality level of HVM were examined. It was found that with the increase of P-value threshold from 0.05 to 0.95, the overlap (non-unique) fitting of MSN and NNH decreased from 29.1 to 1.3%, whereas the specificity (uniquely fitted to data) of MSN model was kept between 55.7 and 82.3%. Also with the rising P-value threshold, the difference between healthy and BV groups become significant. These findings suggested that traditional single P-value threshold (such as the de facto standard P-value = 0.05) might be insufficient for testing the neutral and/or niche neutral hybrid models.

Cross-Scale Analyses of Animal and Human Gut Microbiome Assemblies from Metacommunity to Global Landscape

Animal (human) gut microbiomes have been coevolving with their hosts for many millions of years. Understanding how the coevolution shapes the processes of microbiome assembly and diversity maintenance is important but rather challenging. An effort may start with the understanding of how and why animals and humans may differ in their microbiome neutrality (stochasticity) levels. Here, we attempted to perform layered comparative stochasticity analyses across animal species (including humans), class, and kingdom scales, corresponding to microbial metacommunity, landscape, and global-landscape scales. By analyzing 4,903 microbiome samples from 274 animal species covering 4 major invertebrate classes and all 6 vertebrate classes and including 1,787 human gut microbiome samples, we discovered the following: (i) at the microbial metacommunity (animal species) scale, although the general trend of stochasticity (measured in the relationships between fundamental biodiversity/dispersal numbers of Hubbell’s neutral theory and host species phylogenetic timeline) seems continuous, there seems to be a turning point from animals to humans in the passing rate of neutrality tests (12% to 45% versus 100%). We postulate that it should be the human experiences from agricultural/industrial activities (e.g., diet effects) and frequent social/familial contacts that are responsible for the dramatically rising stochastic neutrality in human gut microbiomes. (ii) At the microbial landscape (animal class) and global landscape (animal kingdom) scales, neutrality is not detectable, suggesting that the landscape is niche differentiated—animal species may possess “home niches” for their coadapted microbiomes. We further analyze the reliabilities of our findings by using variable P value thresholds (type I error) and performing power analysis (type II error) of neutrality tests.

IMPORTANCE Understanding how the coevolution (evolutionary time scale) and/or the interactions (ecological time scale) between animal (human) gut microbiomes and their hosts shape the processes of the microbiome assembly and diversity maintenance is important but rather challenging. An effort may start with the understanding of how and why animals and humans may differ in their microbiome neutrality (stochasticity) levels. Here, we attempted to perform layered comparative stochasticity analyses across animal species (including humans), class, and kingdom scales, corresponding to microbial metacommunity, landscape, and global-landscape scales by analyzing 4,903 microbiome samples from 274 animal species covering 4 major invertebrate classes and all 6 vertebrate classes, and including 1,787 human gut microbiome samples. The analyses were implemented by fitting the multisite neutral model and further augmented by checking false-positive and false-negative errors, respectively. It appears that there is a turning (tipping) point in the neutrality level from animal to human microbiomes.

Responses of abundant and rare bacterioplankton to temporal change in a subtropical urban reservoir

Investigation of bacterial community dynamics across different time scales is important for understanding how environmental conditions drive community change over time. Bacterioplankton from the surface waters of a subtropical urban reservoir in southeast China were analyzed through high-frequency sampling over 13 months to compare patterns and ecological processes between short (0‒8 weeks), medium (9‒24 weeks) and long (25‒53 weeks) time intervals. We classified the bacterial community into different subcommunities: abundant taxa (AT); conditionally rare taxa (CRT); rare taxa (RT). CRT contributed > 65% of the alpha-diversity, and temporal change of beta-diversities was more pronounced for AT and CRT than RT. The bacterial community exhibited a directional change in the short- and medium-time intervals and a convergent dynamic during the long-time interval due to a seasonal cycle. Cyanobacteria exhibited a strong succession pattern than other phyla. CRT accounted for > 76% of the network nodes in three stations. The bacteria-environment relationship and deterministic processes were stronger for large sample size at station G (n = 116) than small sample size at stations C (n = 12) and L (n = 22). These findings suggest that a high-frequency sampling approach can provide a better understanding on the time scales at which bacterioplankton can change fast between being abundant or rare, thus providing the facts about environmental factors driving microbial community dynamics. Patterns and processes in alpha- and beta-diversities and community assembly of bacterioplankton differ among different time intervals (short-, medium- and long-time intervals) and different subcommunities (abundant, conditionally rare and rare taxa) in a subtropical urban reservoir, demonstrating the importance of temporal scale and high-frequency sampling in microbial community ecology.

Disentangling Environmental Effects on the Tree Species Abundance Distribution and Richness in a Subtropical Forest

As a transitional vegetation type between evergreen broadleaved forest and deciduous broadleaved forest, evergreen-deciduous broadleaved mixed forest is composed of diverse plant species. This distinctive forest is generally distributed in mountainous areas with complex landforms and heterogeneous microenvironments. However, little is known about the roles of environmental conditions in driving the species diversity patterns of this forest. Here, based on a 15-ha plot in central China, we aimed to understand how and to what extent topographical characteristics and soil nutrients regulate the number and relative abundance of tree species in this forest. We measured environmental factors (terrain convexity, slope, soil total nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations) and species diversity (species abundance distribution and species richness) in 20 m × 20 m subplots. Species abundance distribution was characterized by skewness, Berger-Parker index, and the proportion of singletons. The generalized additive model was used to examine the variations in diversity patterns caused by environmental factors. The structural equation model was used to assess whether and how topographical characteristics regulate species diversity via soil nutrients. We found that soil nutrients had significant negative effects on species richness and positive effects on all metrics of species abundance distribution. Convexity had significant positive effects on species richness and negative effects on all metrics of species abundance distribution, but these effects were mostly mediated by soil nutrients. Slope had significant negative effects on skewness and the Berger-Parker index, and these effects were almost independent of soil nutrients. Soil nutrients and topographical characteristics together accounted for 9.5-17.1% of variations in diversity patterns and, respectively, accounted for 8.9-13.9% and 3.3-10.7% of the variations. We concluded that soil nutrients were more important than topographical factors in regulating species diversity. Increased soil nutrient concentration led to decreased taxonomic diversity and increased species dominance and rarity. Convexity could be a better proxy for soil nutrients than slope. Moreover, these abiotic factors played limited roles in regulating diversity patterns, and it is possible that the observed patterns are also driven by some biotic and abiotic factors not considered here.

Emergent neutrality in consumer-resource dynamics

Neutral theory assumes all species and individuals in a community are ecologically equivalent. This controversial hypothesis has been tested across many taxonomic groups and environmental contexts, and successfully predicts species abundance distributions across multiple high-diversity communities. However, it has been critiqued for its failure to predict a broader range of community properties, particularly regarding community dynamics from generational to geological timescales. Moreover, it is unclear whether neutrality can ever be a true description of a community given the ubiquity of interspecific differences, which presumably lead to ecological inequivalences. Here we derive analytical predictions for when and why non-neutral communities of consumers and resources may present neutral-like outcomes, which we verify using numerical simulations. Our results, which span both static and dynamical community properties, demonstrate the limitations of summarizing distributions to detect non-neutrality, and provide a potential explanation for the successes of neutral theory as a description of macroecological pattern.

The neutral theory of biodiversity assumes that species are ecologically equivalent. Given the natural history observation of ubiquitous phenotypic differences between species, it is surprising that neutral theory has successfully predicted a broad range of biodiversity patterns, and simultaneously unsurprising that these results have not convinced ecologists that the natural world is neutral. However, we have lacked a description of how neutrality can emerge in a natural way from ecological mechanisms and species differences. Our study sheds light on this question, providing a theoretical backdrop for the success of neutral theory as a description of macroecological pattern. We derive a prediction for the degree to which consumers must differ in preferences for different resources before the resulting biodiversity patterns become distinguishable from neutrality. These predictions, which we confirm using simulations, show that neutral-like outcomes are possible even when resource requirements across consumers are very far from neutral. Our results can be tested in experimental microbial communities, where, equipped with an inferred consumption network, our analysis can yield predictions for biodiversity patterns and community turnover at different taxonomic levels.

Coexistence of plant species under harsh environmental conditions: an evaluation of niche differentiation and stochasticity along salt marsh creeks

Background

Ecologists have achieved much progress in the study of mechanisms that maintain species coexistence and diversity. In this paper, we reviewed a wide range of past research related to these topics, focusing on five theoretical bodies: (1) coexistence by niche differentiation, (2) coexistence without niche differentiation, (3) coexistence along environmental stress gradients, (4) coexistence under non-equilibrium versus equilibrium conditions, and (5) modern perspectives.

Results

From the review, we identified that there are few models that can be generally and confidently applicable to different ecological systems. This problem arises mainly because most theories have not been substantiated by enough empirical research based on field data to test various coexistence hypotheses at different spatial scales. We also found that little is still known about the mechanisms of species coexistence under harsh environmental conditions. This is because most previous models treat disturbance as a key factor shaping community structure, but they do not explicitly deal with stressful systems with non-lethal conditions. We evaluated the mainstream ideas of niche differentiation and stochasticity for the coexistence of plant species across salt marsh creeks in southwestern Denmark. The results showed that diversity indices, such as Shannon–Wiener diversity, richness, and evenness, decreased with increasing surface elevation and increased with increasing niche overlap and niche breadth. The two niche parameters linearly decreased with increasing elevation. These findings imply a substantial influence of an equalizing mechanism that reduces differences in relative fitness among species in the highly stressful environments of the marsh. We propose that species evenness increases under very harsh conditions if the associated stress is not lethal. Finally, we present a conceptual model of patterns related to the level of environmental stress and niche characteristics along a microhabitat gradient (i.e., surface elevation).

Conclusions

The ecology of stressful systems with non-lethal conditions will be increasingly important as ongoing global-scale climate change extends the period of chronic stresses that are not necessarily fatal to inhabiting plants. We recommend that more ecologists continue this line of research.

Conservation of community functional structure across changes in composition in consumer-resource models

High-throughput sequencing techniques such as metagenomic and metatranscriptomic technologies allow cataloguing of functional characteristics of microbial community members as well as their phylogenetic identity. Such studies have found that a community's makeup in terms of ecologically relevant functional traits or guilds can be conserved more strictly across varying settings than its composition is in terms of taxa. I use a standard ecological resource-consumer model to examine the dynamics of traits relevant to resource consumption, and analyze determinants of functional structure. This model demonstrates that interaction with essential resources can regulate the community-wide abundances of ecologically relevant traits, keeping them at consistent levels despite large changes in the abundances of the species housing those traits in response to changes in the environment, and across variation between communities in species composition. Functional structure is shown to be able to track differences in environmental conditions faithfully across differences in species composition. Mathematical conditions on consumers' vital rates and functional responses necessary and sufficient to produce conservation of functional community structure across differences in species composition in these models are presented. These conditions imply a nongeneric relation between biochemical rates, and avenues for further research are discussed.

Neutral syndrome

Neutral models of evolution assume the absence of natural selection. Formerly confined to ecology and evolutionary biology, neutral models are spreading. In recent years they've been applied to explaining the diversity of baby names, scientific citations, cryptocurrencies, pot decorations, literary lexica, tumour variants and much more besides. Here, we survey important neutral models and highlight their similarities. We investigate the most widely used tests of neutrality, show that they are weak and suggest more powerful methods. We conclude by discussing the role of neutral models in the explanation of diversity. We suggest that the ability of neutral models to fit low-information distributions should not be taken as evidence for the absence of selection. Nevertheless, many studies, in increasingly diverse fields, make just such claims. We call this tendency 'neutral syndrome'.

Analyzing snapshot diversity patterns with the Neutral Theory can show functional groups' effects on community assembly

A central question of community ecology is to understand how the interplay between processes of the Neutral Theory (e.g., immigration and ecological drift) and niche-based processes (e.g., environmental filtering, intra- and interspecific density dependence) shape species diversity in competitive communities. The articulation between these two categories of mechanisms can be studied through the lens of the intermediate organizational level of "functional groups" (FGs), defined as clusters of species with similar traits. Indeed, FGs stress ecological differences among species and are thus likely to unravel non-neutral interactions within communities. Here we presented a novel approach to explore how FGs affect species coexistence by comparing species and functional diversity patterns. Our framework considers the Neutral Theory as a mechanistic null hypothesis. It assesses how much the functional diversity deviates from species diversity in communities, and compares this deviation, called the "average functional deviation," to a neutral baseline. We showed that the average functional deviation can indicate reduced negative density dependence or environmental filtering among FGs. We validated our framework using simulations illustrating the two situations. We further analyzed tropical tree communities in Western Ghats, India. Our analysis of the average functional deviation revealed environmental filtering between deciduous and evergreen FGs along a broad rainfall gradient. By contrast, we did not find clear evidence for reduced density dependence among FGs. We predict that applying our approach to new case studies where environmental gradients are milder and FGs are more clearly associated to resource partitioning should reveal the missing pattern of reduced density dependence among FGs.

Neutral and niche forces as drivers of species selection

The evolutionary and ecological processes behind the origin of species are among the most fundamental problems in biology. In fact, many theoretical hypothesis on different type of speciation have been proposed. In particular, models of sympatric speciation leading to the formation of new species without geographical isolation, are based on the niche hypothesis: the diversification of the population is induced by the competition for a limited set of available resources. Interestingly, neutral models of evolution have shown that stochastic forces are sufficient to generate coexistence of different species. In this work, we put forward this dichotomy within the context of species formation, studying how neutral and niche forces contribute to sympatric speciation in a model ecosystem. In particular, we study the evolution of a population of individuals with asexual reproduction whose inherited characters or phenotypes are specified by both niche-based and neutral traits. We analyze the stationary state of the dynamics, and study the distribution of individuals in the whole phenotypic space. We show, both numerically and analytically, that there is a non-trivial coupling between neutral and niche forces induced by stochastic effects in the evolution of the population allowing the formation of clusters, that is, species in the phenotypic space. Remarkably, our framework can be generalized also to sexual reproduction or other type of population dynamics.

Invariance in ecological pattern

Background: The abundance of different species in a community often follows the log series distribution. Other ecological patterns also have simple forms. Why does the complexity and variability of ecological systems reduce to such simplicity? Common answers include maximum entropy, neutrality, and convergent outcome from different underlying biological processes.  Methods: This article proposes a more general answer based on the concept of invariance, the property by which a pattern remains the same after transformation. Invariance has a long tradition in physics. For example, general relativity emphasizes the need for the equations describing the laws of physics to have the same form in all frames of reference.  Results: By bringing this unifying invariance approach into ecology, we show that the log series pattern dominates when the consequences of processes acting on abundance are invariant to the addition or multiplication of abundance by a constant. The lognormal pattern dominates when the processes acting on net species growth rate obey rotational invariance (symmetry) with respect to the summing up of the individual component processes. Conclusions: Recognizing how these invariances connect pattern to process leads to a synthesis of previous approaches. First, invariance provides a simpler and more fundamental maximum entropy derivation of the log series distribution. Second, invariance provides a simple derivation of the key result from neutral theory: the log series at the metacommunity scale and a clearer form of the skewed lognormal at the local community scale. The invariance expressions are easy to understand because they uniquely describe the basic underlying components that shape pattern.

The importance of neutral over niche processes in structuring Ediacaran early animal communities

The relative influence of niche vs. neutral processes in ecosystem dynamics is an on-going debate, but the extent to which they structured the earliest animal communities is unknown. Some of the oldest known metazoan-dominated paleocommunities occur in Ediacaran age (~ 565 million years old) strata in Newfoundland, Canada and Charnwood Forest, UK. These comprise large and diverse populations of sessile organisms that are amenable to spatial point process analyses, enabling inference of the most likely underlying niche or neutral processes governing community structure. We mapped seven Ediacaran paleocommunities using LiDAR, photogrammetry and a laser line probe. We found that neutral processes dominate these paleocommunities, with niche processes exerting limited influence, in contrast with the niche-dominated dynamics of modern marine ecosystems. The dominance of neutral processes suggests that early metazoan diversification may not have been driven by systematic adaptations to the local environment, but instead may have resulted from stochastic demographic differences.

Broadly inflicted stressors can cause ecosystem thinning

Many anthropogenic stressors broadly inflict mortality or reduce fecundity, including habitat destruction, pollution, climate change, invasive species, and multispecies harvesting. Here, we show-in four analytical models of interspecies competition-that broadly inflicted stressors disproportionately cause competitive exclusions within groups of ecologically similar species. As a result, we predict that ecosystems become progressively thinner-that is, they have progressively less functional redundancy-as broadly inflicted stressors become progressively more intense. This may negatively affect the temporal stability of ecosystem functions, but it also buffers ecosystem productivity against stress by favoring species less sensitive to the stressors. Our main result follows from the weak limiting similarity principle: species with more similar ecological niches compete more strongly, and their coexistence can be upset by smaller perturbations. We show that stressors can cause indirect competitive exclusions at much lower stressor intensity than needed to directly cause species extinction, consistent with the finding of empirical studies that species interactions are often the proximal drivers of local extinctions. The excluded species are more sensitive to the stressor relative to their ecologically similar competitors. Moreover, broadly inflicted stressors may cause hydra effects-where higher stressor intensity results in higher abundance for a species with lower sensitivity to the stressor than its competitors. Correlations between stressor impacts and ecological niches reduce the potential for indirect competitive exclusions, but they consequently also reduce the buffering effect of ecosystem thinning on ecosystem productivity. Our findings suggest that ecosystems experiencing stress may continue to provision ecosystem services but lose functional redundancy and stability.

The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants

A key feature of life's diversity is that some species are common but many more are rare. Nonetheless, at global scales, we do not know what fraction of biodiversity consists of rare species. Here, we present the largest compilation of global plant diversity to quantify the fraction of Earth's plant biodiversity that are rare. A large fraction, ~36.5% of Earth's ~435,000 plant species, are exceedingly rare. Sampling biases and prominent models, such as neutral theory and the k-niche model, cannot account for the observed prevalence of rarity. Our results indicate that (i) climatically more stable regions have harbored rare species and hence a large fraction of Earth's plant species via reduced extinction risk but that (ii) climate change and human land use are now disproportionately impacting rare species. Estimates of global species abundance distributions have important implications for risk assessments and conservation planning in this era of rapid global change.

Stochastic processes shape microeukaryotic community assembly in a subtropical river across wet and dry seasons

BACKGROUND

The deep mechanisms (deterministic and/or stochastic processes) underlying community assembly are a central challenge in microbial ecology. However, the relative importance of these processes in shaping riverine microeukaryotic biogeography is still poorly understood. Here, we compared the spatiotemporal and biogeographical patterns of microeukaryotic community using high-throughput sequencing of 18S rRNA gene and multivariate statistical analyses from a subtropical river during wet and dry seasons.

RESULTS

Our results provide the first description of biogeographical patterns of microeukaryotic communities in the Tingjiang River, the largest river in the west of Fujian province, southeastern China. The results showed that microeukaryotes from both wet and dry seasons exhibited contrasting community compositions, which might be owing to planktonic microeukaryotes having seasonal succession patterns. Further, all components of the microeukaryotic communities (including total, dominant, always rare, and conditionally rare taxa) exhibited a significant distance-decay pattern in both seasons, and these communities had a stronger distance-decay relationship during the dry season, especially for the conditionally rare taxa. Although several variables had a significant influence on the microeukaryotic communities, the environmental and spatial factors showed minor roles in shaping the communities. Importantly, these microeukaryotic communities were strongly driven by stochastic processes, with 89.9%, 88.5%, and 89.6% of the community variation explained by neutral community model during wet, dry, and both seasons, respectively. The neutral community model also explained a large fraction of the community variation across different taxonomic groups and levels. Additionally, the microeukaryotic taxa, which were above and below the neutral prediction, were ecologically and taxonomically distinct groups, which might be interactively structured by deterministic and stochastic processes.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated that stochastic processes are sufficient in shaping substantial variation in river microeukaryotic metacommunity across different hydrographic regimes, thereby providing a better understanding of spatiotemporal patterns, processes, and mechanisms of microeukaryotic community in waters.

Spatial scale modulates the inference of metacommunity assembly processes

The abundance and distribution of species across the landscape depend on the interaction between local, spatial, and stochastic processes. However, empirical syntheses relating these processes to spatiotemporal patterns of structure in metacommunities remain elusive. One important reason for this lack of synthesis is that the relative importance of the core assembly processes (dispersal, selection, and drift) critically depends on the spatial grain and extent over which communities are studied. To illustrate this, we simulated different aspects of community assembly on heterogeneous landscapes, including the strength of response to environmental heterogeneity (inherent to niche theory) vs. dispersal and stochastic drift (inherent to neutral theory). We show that increasing spatial extent leads to increasing importance of niche selection, whereas increasing spatial grain leads to decreasing importance of niche selection. The strength of these scaling effects depended on environment configuration, dispersal capacity, and niche breadth. By mapping the variation observed from the scaling effects in simulations, we could recreate the entire range of variation observed within and among empirical studies. This means that variation in the relative importance of assembly processes among empirical studies is largely scale dependent and cannot be directly compared. The scaling coefficient of the relative contribution of assembly processes, however, can be interpreted as a scale-integrative estimate to compare assembly processes across different regions and ecosystems. This emphasizes the necessity to consider spatial scaling as an explicit component of studies intended to infer the importance of community assembly processes.

Reconciling the contribution of environmental and stochastic structuring of tropical forest diversity through the lens of imaging spectroscopy

Both niche and stochastic dispersal processes structure the extraordinary diversity of tropical plants, but determining their relative contributions has proven challenging. We address this question using airborne imaging spectroscopy to estimate canopy β-diversity for an extensive region of a Bornean rainforest and challenge these data with models incorporating niches and dispersal. We show that remotely sensed and field-derived estimates of pairwise dissimilarity in community composition are closely matched, proving the applicability of imaging spectroscopy to provide β-diversity data for entire landscapes of over 1000 ha containing contrasting forest types. Our model reproduces the empirical data well and shows that the ecological processes maintaining tropical forest diversity are scale dependent. Patterns of β-diversity are shaped by stochastic dispersal processes acting locally whilst environmental processes act over a wider range of scales.

Scaling issues of neutral theory reveal violations of ecological equivalence for dominant Amazonian tree species

Neutral models are often used as null models, testing the relative importance of niche versus neutral processes in shaping diversity. Most versions, however, focus only on regional scale predictions and neglect local level contributions. Recently, a new formulation of spatial neutral theory was published showing an incompatibility between regional and local scale fits where especially the number of rare species was dramatically under-predicted. Using a forward in time semi-spatially explicit neutral model and a unique large-scale Amazonian tree inventory data set, we show that neutral theory not only underestimates the number of rare species but also fails in predicting the excessive dominance of species on both regional and local levels. We show that although there are clear relationships between species composition, spatial and environmental distances, there is also a clear differentiation between species able to attain dominance with and without restriction to specific habitats. We conclude therefore that the apparent dominance of these species is real, and that their excessive abundance can be attributed to fitness differences in different ways, a clear violation of the ecological equivalence assumption of neutral theory.

Optimal Microbiome Networks: Macroecology and Criticality

The human microbiome is an extremely complex ecosystem considering the number of bacterial species, their interactions, and its variability over space and time. Here, we untangle the complexity of the human microbiome for the Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS) that is the most prevalent functional gastrointestinal disorder in human populations. Based on a novel information theoretic network inference model, we detected potential species interaction networks that are functionally and structurally different for healthy and unhealthy individuals. Healthy networks are characterized by a neutral symmetrical pattern of species interactions and scale-free topology versus random unhealthy networks. We detected an inverse scaling relationship between species total outgoing information flow, meaningful of node interactivity, and relative species abundance (RSA). The top ten interacting species are also the least relatively abundant for the healthy microbiome and the most detrimental. These findings support the idea about the diminishing role of network hubs and how these should be defined considering the total outgoing information flow rather than the node degree. Macroecologically, the healthy microbiome is characterized by the highest Pareto total species diversity growth rate, the lowest species turnover, and the smallest variability of RSA for all species. This result challenges current views that posit a universal association between healthy states and the highest absolute species diversity in ecosystems. Additionally, we show how the transitory microbiome is unstable and microbiome criticality is not necessarily at the phase transition between healthy and unhealthy states. We stress the importance of considering portfolios of interacting pairs versus single node dynamics when characterizing the microbiome and of ranking these pairs in terms of their interactions (i.e., species collective behavior) that shape transition from healthy to unhealthy states. The macroecological characterization of the microbiome is useful for public health and disease diagnosis and etiognosis, while species-specific analyses can detect beneficial species leading to personalized design of pre- and probiotic treatments and microbiome engineering.

Responses of species abundance distribution patterns to spatial scaling in subtropical secondary forests

To quantify and assess the processes underlying community assembly and driving tree species abundance distributions(SADs) with spatial scale variation in two typical subtropical secondary forests in Dashanchong state-owned forest farm, two 1-ha permanent study plots (100-m × 100-m) were established. We selected four diversity indices including species richness, Shannon-Wiener, Simpson and Pielou, and relative importance values to quantify community assembly and biodiversity. Empirical cumulative distribution and species accumulation curves were utilized to describe the SADs of two forests communities trees. Three types of models, including statistic model (lognormal and logseries model), niche model (broken-stick, niche preemption, and Zipf-Mandelbrodt model), and neutral theory model, were estimated by the fitted SADs. Simulation effects were tested by Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Results found that the Fagaceae and Anacardiaceae families were their respective dominance family in the evergreen broad-leaved and deciduous mixed communities. According to original data and random sampling predictions, the SADs were hump-shaped for intermediate abundance classes, peaking between 8 and 32 in the evergreen broad-leaved community, but this maximum increased with size of total sampled area size in the deciduous mixed community. All niche models could only explain SADs patterns at smaller spatial scales. However, both the neutral theory and purely statistical models were suitable for explaining the SADs for secondary forest communities when the sampling plot exceeded 40 m. The results showed the SADs indicated a clear directional trend toward convergence and similar predominating ecological processes in two typical subtropical secondary forests. The neutral process gradually replaced the niche process in importance and become the main mechanism for determining SADs of forest trees as the sampling scale expanded. Thus, we can preliminarily conclude that neutral processes had a major effect on biodiversity patterns in these two subtropical secondary forests but exclude possible contributions of other processes.

Species diversity rises exponentially with the number of available resources in a multi-trait competition model

Theoretical studies of ecosystem models have generally concluded that large numbers of species will not stably coexist if the species are all competing for the same limited set of resources. Here, we describe a simple multi-trait model of competition where the presence of N resources will lead to the stable coexistence of up to 2 N species. Our model also predicts that the long-term dynamics of the population will lie on a neutral attractor hyperplane. When the population shifts within the hyperplane, its dynamics will behave neutrally, while shifts which occur perpendicular to the hyperplane will be subject to restoring forces. This provides a potential explanation of why complex ecosystems might exhibit both niche-like and neutral responses to perturbations. Like the neutral theory of biodiversity, our model generates good fits to species abundance distributions in several datasets but does so without needing to evoke inter-generational stochastic effects, continuous species creation or immigration dynamics. Additionally, our model is able to explain species abundance correlations between independent but similar ecosystems separated by more than 1400 km inside the Amazonian forests.

Emergent niche structuring leads to increased differences from neutrality in species abundance distributions

Species abundance distributions must reflect the dynamic processes involved in community assembly, but whether and when specific processes lead to distinguishable signals is not well understood. Biodiversity and species abundances may be shaped by a variety of influences, but particular attention has been paid to competition, which can involve neutral dynamics, where competitor abundances are governed only by demographic stochasticity and immigration, and dynamics driven by trait differences that enable stable coexistence through the formation of niches. Key recent studies of the species abundance patterns of communities with niches employ simple models with pre-imposed niche structure. These studies suggest that species abundance distributions are insensitive to the relative contributions of niche and neutral processes, especially when diversity is much higher than the number of niches. Here we analyze results from a stochastic population model with competition driven by trait differences. With this model, niche structure emerges as clumps of species that persist along the trait axis, and leads to more substantial differences from neutral species abundance distributions than have been previously shown. We show that heterogeneity in "between-niche" interaction strength (i.e., in the strength of competition between species in different niches) plays the dominant role in shaping the species abundances along the trait axis, acting as a biotic filter favoring species at the centers of niches. Furthermore, we show that heterogeneity in "within-niche" interactions (i.e., in the competition between species in the same niche) counteracts the influence of heterogeneity in "between-niche" interactions on the SAD to some degree. Our results suggest that competitive interactions that produce niches can also influence the shapes of SADs.