Remote life-detection criteria, habitable zone boundaries, and the frequency of Earth-like planets around M and late K stars

Exploring the potential of plant astrobiology: adapting flora for extra-terrestrial habitats: a review

In recent years, the realm of astrobiology has expanded beyond the search for microbial life to encompass the intriguing possibility of plant life beyond our planet. Plant astrobiology delves into the adaptations and mechanisms that might allow Earth's flora to flourish in the harsh conditions of outer space and other celestial bodies. This review aims to shed light on the captivating field of plant astrobiology, its implications, and the challenges and opportunities it presents. Plant astrobiology marries the disciplines of botany and astrobiology, challenging us to envision the growth of plants beyond Earth's atmosphere. Researchers in this field are not only exploring the potential for plant life on other planets and moons but also investigating how plants could be harnessed to sustain life during extended space missions. The review discusses how plants could adapt to environments characterized by low gravity, high radiation, extreme temperature fluctuations, and different atmospheric compositions. It highlights the physiological changes necessary for plants to survive and reproduce in these conditions. A pivotal concept is the integration of plants into closed-loop life support systems, where plants would play a crucial role in recycling waste products, generating oxygen, and producing food. The review delves into ongoing research involving genetic modifications and synthetic biology techniques to enhance plants' resilience in space environments. It addresses ethical considerations associated with altering organisms for off-planet habitation. Additionally, the review contemplates the psychological and emotional benefits of having greenery in enclosed, isolated space habitats. The review concludes that by employing advanced research methodologies, the field of plant astrobiology can greatly enhance the viability and sustainability of future space missions, highlighting the essential role of plants in sustaining long-term human presence beyond Earth.

Dormancy in the origin, evolution and persistence of life on Earth

Life has existed on Earth for most of the planet's history, yet major gaps and unresolved questions remain about how it first arose and persisted. Early Earth posed numerous challenges for life, including harsh and fluctuating environments. Today, many organisms cope with such conditions by entering a reversible state of reduced metabolic activity, a phenomenon known as dormancy. This process protects inactive individuals and minimizes the risk of extinction by preserving information that stabilizes life-system dynamics. Here, we develop a framework for understanding dormancy on early Earth, beginning with a primer on dormancy theory and its core criteria. We hypothesize that dormancy-like mechanisms acting on chemical precursors in a prebiotic world may have facilitated the origin of life. Drawing on evidence from phylogenetic reconstructions and the fossil record, we demonstrate that dormancy is prevalent across the tree of life and throughout deep time. These observations lead us to consider how dormancy might have shaped nascent living systems by buffering stochastic processes in small populations, protecting against large-scale planetary disturbances, aiding dispersal in patchy landscapes and facilitating adaptive radiations. Given that dormancy is a fundamental and easily evolved property on Earth, it is also likely to be a feature of life elsewhere in the universe.

Self-Sustaining Living Habitats in Extraterrestrial Environments

Standard definitions of habitability assume that life requires the presence of planetary gravity wells to stabilize liquid water and regulate surface temperature. Here, the consequences of relaxing this assumption are evaluated. Temperature, pressure, volatile loss, radiation levels, and nutrient availability all appear to be surmountable obstacles to the survival of photosynthetic life in space or on celestial bodies with thin atmospheres. Biologically generated barriers capable of transmitting visible radiation, blocking ultraviolet, and sustaining temperature gradients of 25-100 K and pressure differences of 10 kPa against the vacuum of space can allow habitable conditions between 1 and 5 astronomical units in the solar system. Hence, ecosystems capable of generating conditions for their own survival are physically plausible, given the known capabilities of biological materials on Earth. Biogenic habitats for photosynthetic life in extraterrestrial environments would have major benefits for human life support and sustainability in space. Because the evolution of life elsewhere may have followed very different pathways from that on Earth, living habitats could also exist outside traditional habitable environments around other stars, where they would have unusual yet potentially detectable biosignatures.

Eta-Earth Revisited I: A Formula for Estimating the Maximum Number of Earth-Like Habitats

In this hypothesis article, we discuss the basic requirements of planetary environments where aerobe organisms can grow and survive, including atmospheric limitations of millimeter-to-meter-sized biological animal life based on physical limits and O2, N2, and CO2 toxicity levels. By assuming that animal-like extraterrestrial organisms adhere to similar limits, we define Earth-like habitats (EH) as rocky exoplanets in the habitable zone for complex life that host N2-O2-dominated atmospheres with minor amounts of CO2, at which advanced animal-like life or potentially even extraterrestrial intelligent life can in principle evolve and exist. We then derive a new formula that can be used to estimate the maximum occurrence rate of such Earth-like habitats in the Galaxy. This contains realistic probabilistic arguments that can be fine-tuned and constrained by atmospheric characterization with future space and ground-based telescopes. As an example, we briefly discuss two specific requirements feeding into our new formula that, although not quantifiable at present, will become scientifically quantifiable in the upcoming decades due to future observations of exoplanets and their atmospheres. Key Words: Eta-Earth-Earth-like habitats-oxygenation time-nitrogen atmospheres-carbon dioxide-animal-like life. Astrobiology 24, 897-915.

Clearing the air: unraveling past and guiding future research in atmospheric chemosynthesis

SUMMARY

Atmospheric chemosynthesis is a recently proposed form of chemoautotrophic microbial primary production. The proposed process relies on the oxidation of trace concentrations of hydrogen (≤530 ppbv), carbon monoxide (≤90 ppbv), and methane (≤1,870 ppbv) gases using high-affinity enzymes. Atmospheric hydrogen and carbon monoxide oxidation have been primarily linked to microbial growth in desert surface soils scarce in liquid water and organic nutrients, and low in photosynthetic communities. It is well established that the oxidation of trace hydrogen and carbon monoxide gases widely supports the persistence of microbial communities in a diminished metabolic state, with the former potentially providing a reliable source of metabolic water. Microbial atmospheric methane oxidation also occurs in oligotrophic desert soils and is widespread throughout copiotrophic environments, with established links to microbial growth. Despite these findings, the direct link between trace gas oxidation and carbon fixation remains disputable. Here, we review the supporting evidence, outlining major gaps in our understanding of this phenomenon, and propose approaches to validate atmospheric chemosynthesis as a primary production process. We also explore the implications of this minimalistic survival strategy in terms of nutrient cycling, climate change, aerobiology, and astrobiology.

Assessment of Isoprene as a Possible Biosignature Gas in Exoplanets with Anoxic Atmospheres

The search for possible biosignature gases in habitable exoplanet atmospheres is accelerating, although actual observations are likely years away. This work adds isoprene, C₅H₈, to the roster of biosignature gases. We found that isoprene geochemical formation is highly thermodynamically disfavored and has no known abiotic false positives. The isoprene production rate on Earth rivals that of methane (CH₄; ∼500 Tg/year). Unlike methane, on Earth isoprene is rapidly destroyed by oxygen-containing radicals. Although isoprene is predominantly produced by deciduous trees, isoprene production is ubiquitous to a diverse array of evolutionary distant organisms, from bacteria to plants and animals-few, if any, volatile secondary metabolites have a larger evolutionary reach. Although non-photochemical sinks of isoprene may exist, such as degradation of isoprene by life or other high deposition rates, destruction of isoprene in an anoxic atmosphere is mainly driven by photochemistry. Motivated by the concept that isoprene might accumulate in anoxic environments, we model the photochemistry and spectroscopic detection of isoprene in habitable temperature, rocky exoplanet anoxic atmospheres with a variety of atmosphere compositions under different host star ultraviolet fluxes. Limited by an assumed 10 ppm instrument noise floor, habitable atmosphere characterization when using James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is only achievable with a transit signal similar or larger than that for a super-Earth-sized exoplanet transiting an M dwarf star with an H₂-dominated atmosphere. Unfortunately, isoprene cannot accumulate to detectable abundance without entering a run-away phase, which occurs at a very high production rate, ∼100 times the Earth's production rate. In this run-away scenario, isoprene will accumulate to >100 ppm, and its spectral features are detectable with ∼20 JWST transits. One caveat is that some isoprene spectral features are hard to distinguish from those of methane and also from other hydrocarbons containing the isoprene substructure. Despite these challenges, isoprene is worth adding to the menu of potential biosignature gases.

Past, present and future stars that can see Earth as a transiting exoplanet

In the search for life in the cosmos, transiting exoplanets are currently our best targets. With thousands already detected, our search is entering a new era of discovery with upcoming large telescopes that will look for signs of 'life' in the atmospheres of transiting worlds. Previous work has explored the zone from which Earth would be visible while transiting the Sun^1-4. However, these studies considered only the current position of stars, and did not include their changing vantage point over time. Here we report that 1,715 stars within 100 parsecs from the Sun are in the right position to have spotted life on a transiting Earth since early human civilization (about 5,000 years ago), with an additional 319 stars entering this special vantage point in the next 5,000 years. Among these stars are seven known exoplanet hosts, including Ross-128, which saw Earth transit the Sun in the past, and Teegarden's Star and Trappist-1, which will start to see it in 29 and 1,642 years, respectively. We found that human-made radio waves have already swept over 75 of the closest stars on our list.

Phosphine as a Biosignature Gas in Exoplanet Atmospheres

A long-term goal of exoplanet studies is the identification and detection of biosignature gases. Beyond the most discussed biosignature gas O₂, only a handful of gases have been considered in detail. In this study, we evaluate phosphine (PH₃). On Earth, PH₃ is associated with anaerobic ecosystems, and as such, it is a potential biosignature gas in anoxic exoplanets. We simulate the atmospheres of habitable terrestrial planets with CO₂- and H₂-dominated atmospheres and find that PH₃ can accumulate to detectable concentrations on planets with surface production fluxes of 10¹⁰ to 10¹⁴ cm^-2 s^-1 (corresponding to surface concentrations of 10s of ppb to 100s of ppm), depending on atmospheric composition and ultraviolet (UV) irradiation. While high, the surface flux values are comparable to the global terrestrial production rate of methane or CH₄ (10¹¹ cm^-2 s^-1) and below the maximum local terrestrial PH₃ production rate (10¹⁴ cm^-2 s^-1). As with other gases, PH₃ can more readily accumulate on low-UV planets, for example, planets orbiting quiet M dwarfs or with a photochemically generated UV shield. PH₃ has three strong spectral features such that in any atmosphere scenario one of the three will be unique compared with other dominant spectroscopic molecules. Phosphine's weakness as a biosignature gas is its high reactivity, requiring high outgassing rates for detectability. We calculate that tens of hours of JWST (James Webb Space Telescope) time are required for a potential detection of PH₃. Yet, because PH₃ is spectrally active in the same wavelength regions as other atmospherically important molecules (such as H₂O and CH₄), searches for PH₃ can be carried out at no additional observational cost to searches for other molecular species relevant to characterizing exoplanet habitability. Phosphine is a promising biosignature gas, as it has no known abiotic false positives on terrestrial planets from any source that could generate the high fluxes required for detection.

A More Comprehensive Habitable Zone for Finding Life on Other Planets

The habitable zone (HZ) is the circular region around a star(s) where standing bodies of water could exist on the surface of a rocky planet. Space missions employ the HZ to select promising targets for follow-up habitability assessment. The classical HZ definition assumes that the most important greenhouse gases for habitable planets orbiting main-sequence stars are CO2 and H2O. Although the classical HZ is an effective navigational tool, recent HZ formulations demonstrate that it cannot thoroughly capture the diversity of habitable exoplanets. Here, I review the planetary and stellar processes considered in both classical and newer HZ formulations. Supplementing the classical HZ with additional considerations from these newer formulations improves our capability to filter out worlds that are unlikely to host life. Such improved HZ tools will be necessary for current and upcoming missions aiming to detect and characterize potentially habitable exoplanets.

Implications of Tides for Life on Exoplanets

As evident from the nearby examples of Proxima Centauri and TRAPPIST-1, Earth-sized planets in the habitable zone of low-mass stars are common. Here, we focus on such planetary systems and argue that their (oceanic) tides could be more prominent due to stronger tidal forces. We identify the conditions under which tides may exert a significant positive influence on biotic processes including abiogenesis, biological rhythms, nutrient upwelling, and stimulating photosynthesis. We conclude our analysis with the identification of large-scale algal blooms as potential temporal biosignatures in reflectance light curves that can arise indirectly as a consequence of strong tidal forces. Key Words: Tidal effects-Abiogenesis-Biological clocks-Planetary habitability-Temporal biosignatures. Astrobiology 18, 967-982.

Exoplanet Biosignatures: A Review of Remotely Detectable Signs of Life

In the coming years and decades, advanced space- and ground-based observatories will allow an unprecedented opportunity to probe the atmospheres and surfaces of potentially habitable exoplanets for signatures of life. Life on Earth, through its gaseous products and reflectance and scattering properties, has left its fingerprint on the spectrum of our planet. Aided by the universality of the laws of physics and chemistry, we turn to Earth's biosphere, both in the present and through geologic time, for analog signatures that will aid in the search for life elsewhere. Considering the insights gained from modern and ancient Earth, and the broader array of hypothetical exoplanet possibilities, we have compiled a comprehensive overview of our current understanding of potential exoplanet biosignatures, including gaseous, surface, and temporal biosignatures. We additionally survey biogenic spectral features that are well known in the specialist literature but have not yet been robustly vetted in the context of exoplanet biosignatures. We briefly review advances in assessing biosignature plausibility, including novel methods for determining chemical disequilibrium from remotely obtainable data and assessment tools for determining the minimum biomass required to maintain short-lived biogenic gases as atmospheric signatures. We focus particularly on advances made since the seminal review by Des Marais et al. The purpose of this work is not to propose new biosignature strategies, a goal left to companion articles in this series, but to review the current literature, draw meaningful connections between seemingly disparate areas, and clear the way for a path forward. Key Words: Exoplanets-Biosignatures-Habitability markers-Photosynthesis-Planetary surfaces-Atmospheres-Spectroscopy-Cryptic biospheres-False positives. Astrobiology 18, 663-708.

Exoplanet Biosignatures: Understanding Oxygen as a Biosignature in the Context of Its Environment

We describe how environmental context can help determine whether oxygen (O2) detected in extrasolar planetary observations is more likely to have a biological source. Here we provide an in-depth, interdisciplinary example of O2 biosignature identification and observation, which serves as the prototype for the development of a general framework for biosignature assessment. Photosynthetically generated O2 is a potentially strong biosignature, and at high abundance, it was originally thought to be an unambiguous indicator for life. However, as a biosignature, O2 faces two major challenges: (1) it was only present at high abundance for a relatively short period of Earth's history and (2) we now know of several potential planetary mechanisms that can generate abundant O2 without life being present. Consequently, our ability to interpret both the presence and absence of O2 in an exoplanetary spectrum relies on understanding the environmental context. Here we examine the coevolution of life with the early Earth's environment to identify how the interplay of sources and sinks may have suppressed O2 release into the atmosphere for several billion years, producing a false negative for biologically generated O2. These studies suggest that planetary characteristics that may enhance false negatives should be considered when selecting targets for biosignature searches. We review the most recent knowledge of false positives for O2, planetary processes that may generate abundant atmospheric O2 without a biosphere. We provide examples of how future photometric, spectroscopic, and time-dependent observations of O2 and other aspects of the planetary environment can be used to rule out false positives and thereby increase our confidence that any observed O2 is indeed a biosignature. These insights will guide and inform the development of future exoplanet characterization missions. Key Words: Biosignatures-Oxygenic photosynthesis-Exoplanets-Planetary atmospheres. Astrobiology 18, 630-662.

Reflections on O2 as a Biosignature in Exoplanetary Atmospheres

Oxygenic photosynthesis is Earth's dominant metabolism, having evolved to harvest the largest expected energy source at the surface of most terrestrial habitable zone planets. Using CO₂ and H₂O-molecules that are expected to be abundant and widespread on habitable terrestrial planets-oxygenic photosynthesis is plausible as a significant planetary process with a global impact. Photosynthetic O₂ has long been considered particularly robust as a sign of life on a habitable exoplanet, due to the lack of known "false positives"-geological or photochemical processes that could also produce large quantities of stable O₂. O₂ has other advantages as a biosignature, including its high abundance and uniform distribution throughout the atmospheric column and its distinct, strong absorption in the visible and near-infrared. However, recent modeling work has shown that false positives for abundant oxygen or ozone could be produced by abiotic mechanisms, including photochemistry and atmospheric escape. Environmental factors for abiotic O₂ have been identified and will improve our ability to choose optimal targets and measurements to guard against false positives. Most of these false-positive mechanisms are dependent on properties of the host star and are often strongest for planets orbiting M dwarfs. In particular, selecting planets found within the conservative habitable zone and those orbiting host stars more massive than 0.4 M_⊙ (M3V and earlier) may help avoid planets with abundant abiotic O₂ generated by water loss. Searching for O₄ or CO in the planetary spectrum, or the lack of H₂O or CH₄, could help discriminate between abiotic and biological sources of O₂ or O₃. In advance of the next generation of telescopes, thorough evaluation of potential biosignatures-including likely environmental context and factors that could produce false positives-ultimately works to increase our confidence in life detection. Key Words: Biosignatures-Exoplanets-Oxygen-Photosynthesis-Planetary spectra. Astrobiology 17, 1022-1052.

B-DNA model systems in non-terran bio-solvents: implications for structure, stability and replication

We have computationally analyzed a comprehensive series of Watson–Crick and mismatched B-DNA base pairs, in the gas phase and in several solvents, including toluene, chloroform, ammonia, methanol and water, using dispersion-corrected density functional theory and implicit solvation.

Physicochemical Requirements Inferred for Chemical Self-Organization Hardly Support an Emergence of Life in the Deep Oceans of Icy Moons

An approach to the origin of life, focused on the property of entities capable of reproducing themselves far from equilibrium, has been developed recently. Independently, the possibility of the emergence of life in the hydrothermal systems possibly present in the deep oceans below the frozen crust of some of the moons of Jupiter and Saturn has been raised. The present report is aimed at investigating the mutual compatibility of these alternative views. In this approach, the habitability concept deduced from the limits of life on Earth is considered to be inappropriate with regard to emerging life due to the requirement for an energy source of sufficient potential (equivalent to the potential of visible light). For these icy moons, no driving force would have been present to assist the process of emergence, which would then have had to rely exclusively on highly improbable events, thereby making the presence of life unlikely on these Solar System bodies, that is, unless additional processes are introduced for feeding chemical systems undergoing a transition toward life and the early living organisms.

KEY WORDS

Icy moon-Bioenergetics-Chemical evolution-Habitability-Origin of life. Astrobiology 16, 328-334.

KEPLER Mission: development and overview

The Kepler Mission is a space observatory launched in 2009 by NASA to monitor 170,000 stars over a period of four years to determine the frequency of Earth-size and larger planets in and near the habitable zone of Sun-like stars, the size and orbital distributions of these planets, and the types of stars they orbit. Kepler is the tenth in the series of NASA Discovery Program missions that are competitively-selected, PI-directed, medium-cost missions. The Mission concept and various instrument prototypes were developed at the Ames Research Center over a period of 18 years starting in 1983. The development of techniques to do the 10 ppm photometry required for Mission success took years of experimentation, several workshops, and the exploration of many 'blind alleys' before the construction of the flight instrument. Beginning in 1992 at the start of the NASA Discovery Program, the Kepler Mission concept was proposed five times before its acceptance for mission development in 2001. During that period, the concept evolved from a photometer in an L2 orbit that monitored 6000 stars in a 50 sq deg field-of-view (FOV) to one that was in a heliocentric orbit that simultaneously monitored 170,000 stars with a 105 sq deg FOV. Analysis of the data to date has detected over 4600 planetary candidates which include several hundred Earth-size planetary candidates, over a thousand confirmed planets, and Earth-size planets in the habitable zone (HZ). These discoveries provide the information required for estimates of the frequency of planets in our galaxy. The Mission results show that most stars have planets, many of these planets are similar in size to the Earth, and that systems with several planets are common. Although planets in the HZ are common, many are substantially larger than Earth.

Global warming as a detectable thermodynamic marker of Earth-like extrasolar civilizations: the case for a telescope like Colossus

Earth-like civilizations generate heat from the energy that they utilize. The thermal radiation from this heat can be a thermodynamic marker for civilizations. Here we model such planetary radiation on Earth-like planets and propose a strategy for detecting such an alien unintentional thermodynamic electromagnetic biomarker. We show that astronomical infrared (IR) civilization biomarkers may be detected within an interestingly large cosmic volume using a 70 m-class or larger telescope. In particular, the Colossus telescope with achievable coronagraphic and adaptive optics performance may reveal Earth-like civilizations from visible and IR photometry timeseries' taken during an exoplanetary orbit period. The detection of an alien heat signature will have far-ranging implications, but even a null result, given 70 m aperture sensitivity, could also have broad social implications.

In search of future earths: assessing the possibility of finding Earth analogues in the later stages of their habitable lifetimes

Earth will become uninhabitable within 2-3 Gyr as a result of the increasing luminosity of the Sun changing the boundaries of the habitable zone (HZ). Predictions about the future of habitable conditions on Earth include declining species diversity and habitat extent, ocean loss, and changes to geochemical cycles. Testing these predictions is difficult, but the discovery of a planet that is an analogue to future Earth could provide the means to test them. This planet would need to have an Earth-like biosphere history and to be approaching the inner edge of the HZ at present. Here, we assess the possibility of finding such a planet and discuss the benefits of analyzing older Earths. Finding an old-Earth analogue in nearby star systems would be ideal, because this would allow for atmospheric characterization. Hence, as an illustrative example, G stars within 10 pc of the Sun are assessed as potential old-Earth-analog hosts. Six of these represent good potential hosts. For each system, a hypothetical Earth analogue is placed at locations within the continuously habitable zone (CHZ) that would allow enough time for Earth-like biosphere development. Surface temperature evolution over the host star's main sequence lifetime (assessed by using a simple climate model) is used to determine whether the planet would be in the right stage of its late-habitable lifetime to exhibit detectable biosignatures. The best candidate, in terms of the chances of planet formation in the CHZ and of biosignature detection, is 61 Virginis. However, planet formation studies suggest that only a small fraction (0.36%) of G stars in the solar neighborhood could host an old-Earth analogue. If the development of Earth-like biospheres is rare, requiring a sequence of low-probability events to occur, biosphere evolution models suggest they are rarer still, with only thousands being present in the Galaxy as a whole.

Why Hart found narrow ecospheres--a minor science mystery solved

AIMS

To explain why two NASA computer simulation studies in the 1970s (Hart, 1978 , 1979 ) briefly rocked the subfield of astrobiology and SETI studies by showing very narrow habitable zones (HZs) for solar-type stars. Although other studies later supported wider HZs, it was never clear why the Hart simulations found the narrow limits they did.

RESULTS

Investigation of the state of climate studies and radiative transfer models in the period 1960-1970 provides a likely explanation.

CONCLUSION

Hart's findings were in line with earlier results, preventing him from noticing that his radiation model was inadequate.

The search for signs of life on exoplanets at the interface of chemistry and planetary science

The discovery of thousands of exoplanets in the last two decades that are so different from planets in our own solar system challenges many areas of traditional planetary science. However, ideas for how to detect signs of life in this mélange of planetary possibilities have lagged, and only in the last few years has modeling how signs of life might appear on genuinely alien worlds begun in earnest. Recent results have shown that the exciting frontier for biosignature gas ideas is not in the study of biology itself, which is inevitably rooted in Earth's geochemical and evolutionary specifics, but in the interface of chemistry and planetary physics.

Exploring exoplanet populations with NASA's Kepler Mission

The Kepler Mission is exploring the diversity of planets and planetary systems. Its legacy will be a catalog of discoveries sufficient for computing planet occurrence rates as a function of size, orbital period, star type, and insolation flux. The mission has made significant progress toward achieving that goal. Over 3,500 transiting exoplanets have been identified from the analysis of the first 3 y of data, 100 planets of which are in the habitable zone. The catalog has a high reliability rate (85-90% averaged over the period/radius plane), which is improving as follow-up observations continue. Dynamical (e.g., velocimetry and transit timing) and statistical methods have confirmed and characterized hundreds of planets over a large range of sizes and compositions for both single- and multiple-star systems. Population studies suggest that planets abound in our galaxy and that small planets are particularly frequent. Here, I report on the progress Kepler has made measuring the prevalence of exoplanets orbiting within one astronomical unit of their host stars in support of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's long-term goal of finding habitable environments beyond the solar system.

The future of spectroscopic life detection on exoplanets

The discovery and characterization of exoplanets have the potential to offer the world one of the most impactful findings ever in the history of astronomy--the identification of life beyond Earth. Life can be inferred by the presence of atmospheric biosignature gases--gases produced by life that can accumulate to detectable levels in an exoplanet atmosphere. Detection will be made by remote sensing by sophisticated space telescopes. The conviction that biosignature gases will actually be detected in the future is moderated by lessons learned from the dozens of exoplanet atmospheres studied in last decade, namely the difficulty in robustly identifying molecules, the possible interference of clouds, and the permanent limitations from a spectrum of spatially unresolved and globally mixed gases without direct surface observations. The vision for the path to assess the presence of life beyond Earth is being established.

Can increased atmospheric CO2 levels trigger a runaway greenhouse?

Recent one-dimensional (globally averaged) climate model calculations by Goldblatt et al. (2013) suggest that increased atmospheric CO(2) could conceivably trigger a runaway greenhouse on present Earth if CO(2) concentrations were approximately 100 times higher than they are today. The new prediction runs contrary to previous calculations by Kasting and Ackerman (1986), which indicated that CO(2) increases could not trigger a runaway, even at Venus-like CO(2) concentrations. Goldblatt et al. argued that this different behavior is a consequence of updated absorption coefficients for H(2)O that make a runaway more likely. Here, we use a 1-D climate model with similar, up-to-date absorption coefficients, but employ a different methodology, to show that the older result is probably still valid, although our model nearly runs away at ∼12 preindustrial atmospheric levels of CO(2) when we use the most alarmist assumptions possible. However, we argue that Earth's real climate is probably stable given more realistic assumptions, although 3-D climate models will be required to verify this result. Potential CO(2) increases from fossil fuel burning are somewhat smaller than this, 10-fold or less, but such increases could still cause sufficient warming to make much of the planet uninhabitable by humans.

Some inconvenient truths about biosignatures involving two chemical species on Earth-like exoplanets

The detection of strong thermochemical disequilibrium in the atmosphere of an extrasolar planet is thought to be a potential biosignature. In this article we present a previously unidentified kind of false positive that can mimic a disequilibrium or any other biosignature that involves two chemical species. We consider a scenario where the exoplanet hosts a moon that has its own atmosphere and neither of the atmospheres is in chemical disequilibrium. Our results show that the integrated spectrum of the planet and the moon closely resembles that of a single object in strong chemical disequilibrium. We derive a firm limit on the maximum spectral resolution that can be obtained for both directly imaged and transiting planets. The spectral resolution of even idealized space-based spectrographs that might be achievable in the next several decades is in general insufficient to break the degeneracy. Both chemical species can only be definitively confirmed in the same object if absorption features of both chemicals can be unambiguously identified and their combined depth exceeds 100%.