Synergies between climate and management for Atlantic cod fisheries at high latitudes

Haemoglobin revisited: delineating population structure with the world's first molecular genetic marker used in fisheries research

When haemoglobin genotyping was implemented in the early 1960s to investigate population genetic structure in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), it became one of the first molecular genetic markers deployed in fisheries research worldwide. However, its suitability was questioned due to its potential for selection. While the issue of neutrality concerned the first population geneticists, markers under selection are now routinely used to study population genetic structure. Here, we revisited haemoglobin genotyping half a decade later to analyse >6000 mature Atlantic cod from 73 spawning locations throughout Norway's approximately 2500 km coastline. A latitudinal gradient in allele frequencies, with a decrease in the HbI-2 allele towards the south, was observed. Our observed HbI-2 frequencies were consistently slightly lower than data from the 1960s, potentially reflecting adaptive changes to increasing sea temperatures. However, despite this difference, the observed north-south pattern in allele frequencies observed here and in the historical studies overlapped, aligning with current knowledge of population genetic structure in this species. We therefore conclude that this once questioned marker, which provided the first molecular genetic insights into genetic structure in Atlantic cod, provides knowledge consistent with the isolation by distance pattern revealed through decades of research in this species in this region.

Interaction between three key species in the sea ice-reduced Arctic Barents Sea system

Population dynamics depend on trophic interactions that are affected by climate change. The rise in sea temperature is associated with the disappearance of sea ice in the Arctic. In the Arctic part of the Barents Sea, Atlantic cod, capelin and polar cod are three fish populations that interact and are confronted with climate-induced sea ice reductions. The first is a major predator in the system, while the last two are key species in Arctic and sub-Arctic ecosystems, respectively. There are still many unknowns regarding how predicted environmental change may influence the joint dynamics of these populations. Using time series from a 32 year long survey, we developed a state-space model that jointly modelled the dynamics of cod, capelin and polar cod. Using a hindcast scenario approach, we projected the effect of reduced sea ice on these populations. We show that the impact of sea ice reduction and concomitant sea temperature increase may lead to a decrease of polar cod abundance at the benefit of capelin but not of cod which may decrease, resulting in strong changes in the food web. Our analyses show that climate change in the Arcto-boreal system can generate different species assemblages and new trophic interactions, which is the knowledge needed for effective management measures.

Variable trends in the distribution of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the Celtic seas

Despite decades of active fisheries management, many stocks of Atlantic cod in its southern range are in a depleted state and mortality estimates remain high. Recovery of these stocks, as defined by management areas, could be confounded by cod distributions shifting outside of these areas. Here, we assess data from internationally coordinated trawl surveys to investigate the distribution of three cod stocks in the Celtic Seas ecoregion, Irish Sea, Celtic Sea, and West of Scotland, from 1985 to 2021. We mapped cod densities, analyzed trends in mean weighted depth and bottom temperature, and calculated the center of gravity and equivalent area of the stocks. The distribution of the West of Scotland stock shifted north and east, spilling into the North Sea, while the Irish Sea and Celtic Sea stocks shifted west. Each stock showed decreasing trends in equivalent area, but there were no clear trends in the average depth occupied by the fish. There was no apparent relationship between temperature and the distribution of cod, as bottom temperature varied little from 1993 to 2021. Although Irish Sea cod showed a shift into warmer water, this was due to changes in survey distribution. The shift in distribution of the West of Scotland cod stock towards the North Sea whilst impairing local recovery provides further justification for the recent definition of its incorporation into a larger stock unit that includes the northwest of the North Sea. The Irish Sea and Celtic Sea cod stocks are neither shifting northwards, nor into deeper waters, but remained within current boundaries. This suggests that recent temperature conditions did not affect their distribution, but this may change as temperatures increase towards the limit for reproduction.

Varying temporal trends in the levels of six groups of legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in liver of three gadoid species from the North Sea

From 2005 to 2019, three gadoid species, Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) and saithe (Pollachius virens), were sampled approximately every third year in the northeastern part of the North Sea. Liver samples were analyzed to investigate levels and temporal trends of six groups of persistent organic pollutants (POPs): polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) and its degradation products, hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), trans-nonachlor (TNC), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Some of the highest average concentrations were found in cod, the levels otherwise being similar between the three species and mostly below established threshold values. The levels of all the contaminants except HCB and TNC were higher than previously reported for cod and haddock in the Barents Sea. Significantly decreasing levels were found for Σ7PCBs, ΣDDTs, ΣHCHs and Σ15PBDEs in all three species, and for TNC in haddock and saithe, while there was no significant trend for TNC in cod. HCB levels increased significantly in cod and haddock and showed only a minor decrease in saithe. The observed time trends of legacy POPs demonstrate the persistence of some of the studied pollutants despite efforts to eliminate them from the marine environment.

Climate change dynamics and mercury temporal trends in Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) from the Barents Sea ecosystem

The Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) is the world's northernmost stock of Atlantic cod and is of considerable ecological and economic importance. Northeast Arctic cod are widely distributed in the Barents Sea, an environment that supports a high degree of ecosystem resiliency and food web complexity. Here using 121 years of ocean temperature data (1900-2020), 41 years of sea ice extent information (1979-2020) and 27 years of total mercury (Hg) fillet concentration data (1994-2021, n = 1999, ≥71% Methyl Hg, n = 20) from the Barents Sea ecosystem, we evaluate the effects of climate change dynamics on Hg temporal trends in Northeast Arctic cod. We observed low and consistently stable, Hg concentrations (yearly, least-square means range = 0.022-0.037 mg/kg wet wt.) in length-normalized fish, with a slight decline in the most recent sampling periods despite a significant increase in Barents Sea temperature, and a sharp decline in regional sea ice extent. Overall, our data suggest that recent Arctic amplification of ocean temperature, "Atlantification," and other perturbations of the Barents Sea ecosystem, along with rapidly declining sea ice extent over the last ∼30 years did not translate into major increases or decreases in Hg bioaccumulation in Northeast Arctic cod. Our findings are consistent with similar long-term, temporal assessments of Atlantic cod inhabiting Oslofjord, Norway, and with recent investigations and empirical data for other marine apex predators. This demonstrates that Hg bioaccumulation is highly context specific, and some species may not be as sensitive to current climate change-contaminant interactions as currently thought. Fish Hg bioaccumulation-climate change relationships are highly complex and not uniform, and our data suggest that Hg temporal trends in marine apex predators can vary considerably within and among species, and geographically. Hg bioaccumulation regimes in biota are highly nuanced and likely driven by a suite of other factors such as local diets, sources of Hg, bioenergetics, toxicokinetic processing, and growth and metabolic rates of individuals and taxa, and inputs from anthropogenic activities at varying spatiotemporal scales. Collectively, these findings have important policy implications for global food security, the Minamata Convention on Mercury, and several relevant UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Crude oil exposure of early life stages of Atlantic haddock suggests threshold levels for developmental toxicity as low as 0.1 μg total polyaromatic hydrocarbon (TPAH)/L

Atlantic haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) embryos bind dispersed crude oil droplets to the eggshell and are consequently highly susceptible to toxicity from spilled oil. We established thresholds for developmental toxicity and identified any potential long-term or latent adverse effects that could impair the growth and survival of individuals. Embryos were exposed to oil for eight days (10, 80 and 300 μg oil/L, equivalent to 0.1, 0.8 and 3.0 μg TPAH/L). Acute and delayed mortality were observed at embryonic, larval, and juvenile stages with IC₅₀ = 2.2, 0.39, and 0.27 μg TPAH/L, respectively. Exposure to 0.1 μg TPAH/L had no negative effect on growth or survival. However, yolk sac larvae showed significant reduction in the outgrowth (ballooning) of the cardiac ventricle in the absence of other extracardiac morphological defects. Due to this propensity for latent sublethal developmental toxicity, we recommend an effect threshold of 0.1 μg TPAH/L for risk assessment models.

Long-term variability in spawning stock age structure influences climate-recruitment link for Barents Sea cod

Fish populations may spawn a vast number of offspring, while only a small and highly variable fraction of a new cohort survives long enough to enter into the fisheries as recruits. It is intuitive that the size and state of the spawning stock, the adult part of the fish population, is important for recruitment. Additionally, environmental conditions can greatly influence survival through vulnerable early life stages until recruitment. To understand what regulates recruitment, an essential part of fish population dynamics, it is thus necessary to explain the impact of fluctuations in both spawning stock and environment, including interactions. Here, we examine if the connection between the environment and recruitment is affected by the state of the spawning stock, including biomass, mean age and age diversity. Specifically, we re-evaluate the hypothesis stating that recruitment from a spawning stock dominated by young fish and few age classes is more vulnerable to environmental fluctuations. We expand upon earlier work on the Barents Sea stock of Atlantic cod, now with data series extended in time both backwards and forwards to cover the period 1922-2019. While our findings are correlative and cannot prove a specific cause and effect mechanism, they support earlier work and strengthen the evidence for the hypothesis above. Furthermore, this study supports that advice to fisheries management should include considerations of environmental status.

Jan Mayen—a new spawning and fishing area for Atlantic cod Gadus morhua

In 2018, commercially exploitable concentrations of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua were found on the shelf around the Arctic island Jan Mayen (7 1°N, 8–9 °W) and in 2019–2021 an exploratory cod fishery with longline was carried out in the area. The total catch in the period 2018–2021 was 1737 tonnes. The first records of cod fishery in the Jan Mayen area are from the early 1930s but catches before 2018 were minimal. In 2019–2020 cod spawning was documented in this area for the first time. Catches in 2019 and 2020 were dominated by cod between 70 and 100 cm, while in 2021 the main part of the catches was cod between 60 and 100 cm. Catch rates were highest in autumn. We summarize the history of cod observations and the experience from the recent exploratory fishery in this shelf area where there has been no regular monitoring of demersal fish abundance. Further, we consider possible links with cod stocks in other Arctic and sub-Arctic areas and discuss the occurrence of cod in the Jan Mayen area in relation to the biology and recent development of other cod stocks.

Anisakid parasites (Nematoda: Anisakidae) in 3 commercially important gadid fish species from the southern Barents Sea, with emphasis on key infection drivers and spatial distribution within the hosts

Northeast Arctic cod, saithe and haddock are among the most important fisheries resources in Europe, largely shipped to various continental markets. The present study aimed to map the presence and distribution of larvae of parasitic nematodes in the Anisakidae family which are of socioeconomic and public health concern. Fishes were sourced from commercial catches during winter or spring in the southern Barents Sea. Samples of fish were inspected for nematodes using the UV-press method while anisakid species identification relied on sequencing of the mtDNA cox2 gene. Anisakis simplex (s.s.) was the most prevalent and abundant anisakid recorded, occurring at high infection levels in the viscera and flesh of cod and saithe, while being less abundant in haddock. Contracaecum osculatum (s.l.) larvae, not found in the fish flesh, showed moderate-to-high prevalence in saithe, haddock and cod, respectively. Most Pseudoterranova spp. larvae occurred at low-to-moderate prevalence, and low abundance, in the viscera (Pseudoterranova bulbosa) and flesh (Pseudoterranova decipiens (s.s.) and Pseudoterranova krabbei) of cod, only 2 P. decipiens (s.s.) appeared in the flesh of saithe. Body length was the single most important host-related factor to predict overall abundance of anisakid larvae in the fish species. The spatial distribution of Anisakis larvae in the fish flesh showed much higher abundances in the belly flaps than in the dorsal fillet parts. Trimming of the flesh by removing the belly flaps would reduce larval presence in the fillets of these gadid fish species by 86–91%.

An annual profile of the impacts of simulated oil spills on the Northeast Arctic cod and haddock fisheries

We simulate the combined natural and pollutant-induced survival of early life stages of NEA cod and haddock, and the impact on the adult populations in response to the time of a major oil spill in a single year. Our simulations reveal how dynamic ocean processes, controlling both oil transport and fate and the frequency of interactions of oil with drifting fish eggs and larvae, mediate the magnitude of population losses due to an oil spill. The largest impacts on fish early life stages occurred for spills initiated in Feb-Mar, concomitant with the initial rise in marine productivity and the earliest phase of the spawning season. The reproductive health of the adult fish populations was maintained in all scenarios. The study demonstrates the application of a simulation system that provides managers with information for the planning of development activities and for the protection of fisheries resources from potential impacts.

Age structure affects population productivity in an exploited fish species

Long-term changes in the age and size structure of animal populations are well documented, yet their impacts on population productivity are poorly understood. Fishery exploitation can be a major driver of changes in population age-size structure because fisheries significantly increase mortality and often selectively remove larger and older fish. Climate change is another potential driver of shifts in the demographic structure of fish populations. Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod is the largest population of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and one of the world's most important commercial fish stocks. This population has experienced considerable changes in population age-size structure over the past century, largely in response to fishing. In this study, we investigate whether changes in spawner age structure have affected population productivity in NEA cod, measured as recruits per spawning stock biomass, over the past 75 years. We find evidence that shifts in age structure toward younger spawners negatively affect population productivity, implying higher recruitment success when the spawning stock is composed of older individuals. The positive effect of an older spawning stock is likely linked to maternal effects and higher reproductive output of larger females. Our results indicate a threefold difference in productivity between the youngest and oldest spawning stock that has been observed since the 1950s. Further, our results suggest a positive effect of environmental temperature and a negative effect of intraspecific cannibalism by older juveniles on population productivity, which partly masked the effect of spawner age structure unless accounted for in the model. Collectively, these findings emphasize the importance of population age structure for the productivity of fish populations and suggest that harvest-induced demographic changes can have negative feedbacks for fisheries that lead to a younger spawning stock. Incorporating demographic data into harvest strategies could thus facilitate sustainable fishery management.

Successive extreme climatic events lead to immediate, large-scale, and diverse responses from fish in the Arctic

The warming trend of the Arctic is punctuated by several record-breaking warm years with very low sea ice concentrations. The nature and reversibility of marine ecosystem responses to these multiple extreme climatic events (ECEs) are poorly understood. Here, we investigate the ecological signatures of three successive bottom temperature maxima concomitant with surface ECEs between 2004 and 2017 in the Barents Sea across spatial and organizational scales. We observed community-level redistributions of fish concurrent with ECEs at the scale of the whole Barents Sea. Three groups, characterized by different sets of traits describing their capacity to cope with short-term perturbations, reacted with different timing and intensity to each ECE. Arctic species co-occurred more frequently with large predators and incoming boreal taxa during ECEs, potentially affecting food web structures and functional diversity, accelerating the impacts of long-term climate change. On the species level, responses were highly diversified, with different ECEs impacting different species, and species responses (expansion, geographical shift) varying from one ECE to another, despite the environmental perturbations being similar. Past ECEs impacts, with potential legacy effects, lagged responses, thresholds, and interactions with the underlying warming pressure, could constantly set up new initial conditions that drive the unique ecological signature of each ECE. These results highlight the complexity of ecological reactions to multiple ECEs and give prominence to several sources of process uncertainty in the predictions of climate change impact and risk for ecosystem management. Long-term monitoring and studies to characterize the vertical extent of each ECE are necessary to statistically link demersal species and environmental spatial-temporal patterns. In the future, regular monitoring will be crucial to detect early signals of change and understand the determinism of ECEs, but we need to adapt our models and management to better integrate risk and stochasticity from the complex impacts of global change.

Tradeoffs of managing cod as a sustainable resource in fluctuating environments

Sustainable human exploitation of living marine resources stems from a delicate balance between yield stability and population persistence to achieve socioeconomic and conservation goals. But our imperfect knowledge of how oceanic oscillations regulate temporal variation in an exploited species can obscure the risk of missing management targets. We illustrate how applying a management policy to suppress fluctuations in fishery yield in variable environments (prey density and regional climate) can present unintended outcomes in harvested predators and the sustainability of harvesting. Using Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua, an apex predatory fish) in the Barents Sea as a case study we simulate age-structured population and harvest dynamics through time-varying, density-dependent and density-independent processes with a stochastic, process-based model informed by 27-year monitoring data. In this model, capelin (Mallotus villosus, a pelagic forage fish), a primary prey of cod, fluctuations modulate the strength of density-dependent regulation primarily through cannibalistic pressure on juvenile cod survival; sea temperature fluctuations modulate thermal regulation of cod feeding, growth, maturation, and reproduction. We first explore how capelin and temperature fluctuations filtered through cod intrinsic dynamics modify catch stability and then evaluate how management to suppress short-term variability in catch targets alters overharvest risk. Analyses revealed that suppressing year-to-year catch variability impedes management responses to adjust fishing pressure, which becomes progressively out of sync with variations in cod abundance. This asynchrony becomes amplified in fluctuating environments, magnifying the amplitudes of both fishing pressure and cod abundance and then intensifying the density-dependent regulation of juvenile survival through cannibalism. Although these transient dynamics theoretically give higher average catches, emergent, quasicyclic behaviors of the population would increase long-term yield variability and elevate overharvest risk. Management strategies that overlook the interplay of extrinsic (fishing and environment) and intrinsic (life history and demography) fluctuations thus can inadvertently destabilize fish stocks, thereby jeopardizing the sustainability of harvesting. These policy implications underscore the value of ecosystem approaches to designing management measures to sustainably harvest ecologically connected resources while achieving socioeconomic security.

An assessment of marine, estuarine, and riverine habitat vulnerability to climate change in the Northeast U.S

Climate change is impacting the function and distribution of habitats used by marine, coastal, and diadromous species. These impacts often exacerbate the anthropogenic stressors that habitats face, particularly in the coastal environment. We conducted a climate vulnerability assessment of 52 marine, estuarine, and riverine habitats in the Northeast U.S. to develop an ecosystem-scale understanding of the impact of climate change on these habitats. The trait-based assessment considers the overall vulnerability of a habitat to climate change to be a function of two main components, sensitivity and exposure, and relies on a process of expert elicitation. The climate vulnerability ranks ranged from low to very high, with living habitats identified as the most vulnerable. Over half of the habitats examined in this study are expected to be impacted negatively by climate change, while four habitats are expected to have positive effects. Coastal habitats were also identified as highly vulnerable, in part due to the influence of non-climate anthropogenic stressors. The results of this assessment provide regional managers and scientists with a tool to inform habitat conservation, restoration, and research priorities, fisheries and protected species management, and coastal and ocean planning.

Climate risk to European fisheries and coastal communities

With the majority of the global human population living in coastal regions, correctly characterizing the climate risk that ocean-dependent communities and businesses are exposed to is key to prioritizing the finite resources available to support adaptation. We apply a climate risk analysis across the European fisheries sector to identify the most at-risk fishing fleets and coastal regions and then link the two analyses together. We employ an approach combining biological traits with physiological metrics to differentiate climate hazards between 556 populations of fish and use these to assess the relative climate risk for 380 fishing fleets and 105 coastal regions in Europe. Countries in southeast Europe as well as the United Kingdom have the highest risks to both fishing fleets and coastal regions overall, while in other countries, the risk-profile is greater at either the fleet level or at the regional level. European fisheries face a diversity of challenges posed by climate change; climate adaptation, therefore, needs to be tailored to each country, region, and fleet's specific situation. Our analysis supports this process by highlighting where and what adaptation measures might be needed and informing where policy and business responses could have the greatest impact.

Genomic stability through time despite decades of exploitation in cod on both sides of the Atlantic

The mode and extent of rapid evolution and genomic change in response to human harvesting are key conservation issues. Although experiments and models have shown a high potential for both genetic and phenotypic change in response to fishing, empirical examples of genetic responses in wild populations are rare. Here, we compare whole-genome sequence data of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) that were collected before (early 20th century) and after (early 21st century) periods of intensive exploitation and rapid decline in the age of maturation from two geographically distinct populations in Newfoundland, Canada, and the northeast Arctic, Norway. Our temporal, genome-wide analyses of 346,290 loci show no substantial loss of genetic diversity and high effective population sizes. Moreover, we do not find distinct signals of strong selective sweeps anywhere in the genome, although we cannot rule out the possibility of highly polygenic evolution. Our observations suggest that phenotypic change in these populations is not constrained by irreversible loss of genomic variation and thus imply that former traits could be reestablished with demographic recovery.

Synergistic effects of harvest and climate drive synchronous somatic growth within key New Zealand fisheries

Fisheries harvest has pervasive impacts on wild fish populations, including the truncation of size and age structures, altered population dynamics and density, and modified habitat and assemblage composition. Understanding the degree to which harvest-induced impacts increase the sensitivity of individuals, populations and ultimately species to environmental change is essential to ensuring sustainable fisheries management in a rapidly changing world. Here we generated multiple long-term (44-62 years), annually resolved, somatic growth chronologies of four commercially important fishes from New Zealand's coastal and shelf waters. We used these novel data to investigate how regional- and basin-scale environmental variability, in concert with fishing activity, affected individual somatic growth rates and the magnitude of spatial synchrony among stocks. Changes in somatic growth can affect individual fitness and a range of population and fishery metrics such as recruitment success, maturation schedules and stock biomass. Across all species, individual growth benefited from a fishing-induced release of density controls. For nearshore snapper and tarakihi, regional-scale wind and temperature also additively affected growth, indicating that future climate change-induced warming and potentially strengthened winds will initially promote the productivity of more poleward populations. Fishing increased the sensitivity of deep-water hoki and ling growth to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). A forecast shift to a positive IPO phase, in concert with current harvest strategies, will likely promote individual hoki and ling growth. At the species level, historical fishing practices and IPO synergized to strengthen spatial synchrony in average growth between stocks separated by 400-600 nm of ocean. Increased spatial synchrony can, however, increase the vulnerability of stocks to deleterious stochastic events. Together, our individual- and species-level results show how fishing and environmental factors can conflate to initially promote individual growth but then possibly heighten the sensitivity of stocks to environmental change.

Resource-driven colonization by cod in a high Arctic food web

Climate change is commonly associated with many species redistributions and the influence of other factors may be marginalized, especially in the rapidly warming Arctic.The Barents Sea, a high latitude large marine ecosystem in the Northeast Atlantic has experienced above-average temperatures since the mid-2000s with divergent bottom temperature trends at subregional scales.Concurrently, the Barents Sea stock of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua, one of the most important commercial fish stocks in the world, increased following a large reduction in fishing pressure and expanded north of 80°N.We examined the influence of food availability and temperature on cod expansion using a comprehensive data set on cod stomach fullness stratified by subregions characterized by divergent temperature trends. We then tested whether food availability, as indexed by cod stomach fullness, played a role in cod expansion in subregions that were warming, cooling, or showed no trend.The greatest increase in cod occupancy occurred in three northern subregions with contrasting temperature trends. Cod apparently benefited from initial high food availability in these regions that previously had few large-bodied fish predators.The stomach fullness in the northern subregions declined rapidly after a few years of high cod abundance, suggesting that the arrival of cod caused a top-down effect on the prey base. Prolonged cod residency in the northern Barents Sea is, therefore, not a certainty.

A century of fish growth in relation to climate change, population dynamics and exploitation

Marine ecosystems, particularly in high-latitude regions such as the Arctic, have been significantly affected by human activities and contributions to climate change. Evaluating how fish populations responded to past changes in their environment is helpful for evaluating their future patterns, but is often hindered by the lack of long-term biological data available. Using otolith increments of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) as a proxy for individual growth, we developed a century-scale biochronology (1924-2014) based on the measurements of 3,894 fish, which revealed significant variations in cod growth over the last 91 years. We combined mixed-effect modeling and path analysis to relate these growth variations to selected climate, population and fishing-related factors. Cod growth was negatively related to cod population size and positively related to capelin population size, one of the most important prey items. This suggests that density-dependent effects are the main source of growth variability due to competition for resources and cannibalism. Growth was also positively correlated with warming sea temperatures but negatively correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, suggesting contrasting effects of climate warming at different spatial scales. Fishing pressure had a significant but weak negative direct impact on growth. Additionally, path analysis revealed that the selected growth factors were interrelated. Capelin biomass was positively related to sea temperature and negatively influenced by herring biomass, while cod biomass was mainly driven by fishing mortality. Together, these results give a better understanding of how multiple interacting factors have shaped cod growth throughout a century, both directly and indirectly.

Novel feeding interactions amplify the impact of species redistribution on an Arctic food web

Species are redistributing globally in response to climate warming, impacting ecosystem functions and services. In the Barents Sea, poleward expansion of boreal species and a decreased abundance of Arctic species are causing a rapid borealization of the Arctic communities. This borealization might have profound consequences on the Arctic food web by creating novel feeding interactions between previously non co-occurring species. An early identification of new feeding links is crucial to predict their ecological impact. However, detection by traditional approaches, including stomach content and isotope analyses, although fundamental, cannot cope with the speed of change observed in the region, nor with the urgency of understanding the consequences of species redistribution for the marine ecosystem. In this study, we used an extensive food web (metaweb) with nearly 2,500 documented feeding links between 239 taxa coupled with a trait data set to predict novel feeding interactions and to quantify their potential impact on Arctic food web structure. We found that feeding interactions are largely determined by the body size of interacting species, although species foraging habitat and metabolic type are also important predictors. Further, we found that all boreal species will have at least one potential resource in the Arctic region should they redistribute therein. During 2014-2017, 11 boreal species were observed in the Arctic region of the Barents Sea. These incoming species, which are all generalists, change the structural properties of the Arctic food web by increasing connectance and decreasing modularity. In addition, these boreal species are predicted to initiate novel feeding interactions with the Arctic residents, which might amplify their impact on Arctic food web structure affecting ecosystem functioning and vulnerability. Under the ongoing species redistribution caused by environmental change, we propose merging a trait-based approach with ecological network analysis to efficiently predict the impacts of range-shifting species on food webs.

From gametogenesis to spawning: How climate-driven warming affects teleost reproductive biology

Ambient temperature modulates reproductive processes, especially in poikilotherms such as teleosts. Consequently, global warming is expected to impact the reproductive function of fish, which has implications for wild population dynamics, fisheries and aquaculture. In this extensive review spanning tropical and cold-water environments, we examine the impact of higher-than-optimal temperatures on teleost reproductive development and physiology across reproductive stages, species, generations and sexes. In doing so, we demonstrate that warmer-than-optimal temperatures can affect every stage of reproductive development from puberty through to the act of spawning, and these responses are mediated by age at spawning and are associated with changes in physiology at multiple levels of the brain-pituitary-gonad axis. Response to temperature is often species-specific and changes with environmental history/transgenerational conditioning, and the amplitude, timing and duration of thermal exposure within a generation. Thermally driven changes to physiology, gamete development and maturation typically culminate in poor sperm and oocyte quality, and/or advancement/delay/inhibition of ovulation/spermiation and spawning. Although the field of teleost reproduction and temperature is advanced in many respects, we identify areas where research is lacking, especially for males and egg quality from "omics" perspectives. Climate-driven warming will continue to disturb teleost reproductive performance and therefore guide future research, especially in the emerging areas of transgenerational acclimation and epigenetic studies, which will help to understand and project climate change impacts on wild populations and could also have implications for aquaculture.

Attuning to a changing ocean

The ocean is a lifeline for human existence, but current practices risk severely undermining ocean sustainability. Present and future social-ecological challenges necessitate the maintenance and development of knowledge and action by stimulating collaboration among scientists and between science, policy, and practice. Here we explore not only how such collaborations have developed in the Nordic countries and adjacent seas but also how knowledge from these regions contributes to an understanding of how to obtain a sustainable ocean. Our collective experience may be summarized in three points: 1) In the absence of long-term observations, decision-making is subject to high risk arising from natural variability; 2) in the absence of established scientific organizations, advice to stakeholders often relies on a few advisors, making them prone to biased perceptions; and 3) in the absence of trust between policy makers and the science community, attuning to a changing ocean will be subject to arbitrary decision-making with unforeseen and negative ramifications. Underpinning these observations, we show that collaboration across scientific disciplines and stakeholders and between nations is a necessary condition for appropriate actions.

Species better track climate warming in the oceans than on land

There is mounting evidence of species redistribution as climate warms. Yet, our knowledge of the coupling between species range shifts and isotherm shifts remains limited. Here, we introduce BioShifts-a global geo-database of 30,534 range shifts. Despite a spatial imbalance towards the most developed regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a taxonomic bias towards the most charismatic animals and plants of the planet, data show that marine species are better at tracking isotherm shifts, and move towards the pole six times faster than terrestrial species. More specifically, we find that marine species closely track shifting isotherms in warm and relatively undisturbed waters (for example, the Central Pacific Basin) or in cold waters subject to high human pressures (for example, the North Sea). On land, human activities impede the capacity of terrestrial species to track isotherm shifts in latitude, with some species shifting in the opposite direction to isotherms. Along elevational gradients, species follow the direction of isotherm shifts but at a pace that is much slower than expected, especially in areas with warm climates. Our results suggest that terrestrial species are lagging behind shifting isotherms more than marine species, which is probably related to the interplay between the wider thermal safety margin of terrestrial versus marine species and the more constrained physical environment for dispersal in terrestrial versus marine habitats.

Species better track climate warming in the oceans than on land

There is mounting evidence of species redistribution as climate warms. Yet, our knowledge of the coupling between species range shifts and isotherm shifts remains limited. Here, we introduce BioShifts-a global geo-database of 30,534 range shifts. Despite a spatial imbalance towards the most developed regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a taxonomic bias towards the most charismatic animals and plants of the planet, data show that marine species are better at tracking isotherm shifts, and move towards the pole six times faster than terrestrial species. More specifically, we find that marine species closely track shifting isotherms in warm and relatively undisturbed waters (for example, the Central Pacific Basin) or in cold waters subject to high human pressures (for example, the North Sea). On land, human activities impede the capacity of terrestrial species to track isotherm shifts in latitude, with some species shifting in the opposite direction to isotherms. Along elevational gradients, species follow the direction of isotherm shifts but at a pace that is much slower than expected, especially in areas with warm climates. Our results suggest that terrestrial species are lagging behind shifting isotherms more than marine species, which is probably related to the interplay between the wider thermal safety margin of terrestrial versus marine species and the more constrained physical environment for dispersal in terrestrial versus marine habitats.

The rise of a marine generalist predator and the fall of beta diversity

Determining the importance of physical and biological drivers in shaping biodiversity in diverse ecosystems remains a global challenge. Advancements have been made towards this end in large marine ecosystems with several studies suggesting environmental forcing as the primary driver. However, both empirical and theoretical studies point to additional drivers of changes in diversity involving trophic interactions and, in particular, predation. Moreover, a more integrated but less common approach to the assessment of biodiversity changes involves analyses of spatial β diversity, whereas most studies to date assess only changes in species richness (α diversity). Recent research has established that when cod, a dominant generalist predator, was overfished and collapsed in a northwest Atlantic food web, spatial β diversity increased; that is, the spatial structure of the fish assemblage became increasingly heterogeneous. If cod were to recover, would this situation be reversible, given the inherent complexity and non-linear dynamics that typify such systems? A dramatic increase of cod in an ecologically similar large marine ecosystem may provide an answer. Here we show that spatial β diversity of fish assemblages in the Barents Sea decreased with increasing cod abundance, while decadal scale changes in temperature did not play a significant role. These findings indicate a reversibility of the fish assemblage structure in response to changing levels of an apex predator and highlight the frequently overlooked importance of trophic interactions in determining large-scale biodiversity patterns. As increased cod abundance was largely driven by changes in fisheries management, our study also shows that management policies and practices, particularly those involving apex predators, can have a strong effect in shaping spatial diversity patterns, and one should not restrict the focus to effects of climate change alone.

Ocean warming and acidification may drag down the commercial Arctic cod fishery by 2100

The Arctic Ocean is an early warning system for indicators and effects of climate change. We use a novel combination of experimental and time-series data on effects of ocean warming and acidification on the commercially important Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) to incorporate these physiological processes into the recruitment model of the fish population. By running an ecological-economic optimization model, we investigate how the interaction of ocean warming, acidification and fishing pressure affects the sustainability of the fishery in terms of ecological, economic, social and consumer-related indicators, ranging from present day conditions up to future climate change scenarios. We find that near-term climate change will benefit the fishery, but under likely future warming and acidification this large fishery is at risk of collapse by the end of the century, even with the best adaptation effort in terms of reduced fishing pressure.

Catastrophic dynamics limit Atlantic cod recovery

Collapses and regime changes are pervasive in complex systems (such as marine ecosystems) governed by multiple stressors. The demise of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stocks constitutes a text book example of the consequences of overexploiting marine living resources, yet the drivers of these nearly synchronous collapses are still debated. Moreover, it is still unclear why rebuilding of collapsed fish stocks such as cod is often slow or absent. Here, we apply the stochastic cusp model, based on catastrophe theory, and show that collapse and recovery of cod stocks are potentially driven by the specific interaction between exploitation pressure and environmental drivers. Our statistical modelling study demonstrates that for most of the cod stocks, ocean warming could induce a nonlinear discontinuous relationship between fishing pressure and stock size, which would explain hysteresis in their response to reduced exploitation pressure. Our study suggests further that a continuing increase in ocean temperatures will probably limit productivity and hence future fishing opportunities for most cod stocks of the Atlantic Ocean. Moreover, our study contributes to the ongoing discussion on the importance of climate and fishing effects on commercially exploited fish stocks, highlighting the importance of considering discontinuous dynamics in holistic ecosystem-based management approaches, particularly under climate change.

Fishing constrains phenotypic responses of marine fish to climate variability

Fishing and climate change are profoundly impacting marine biota through unnatural selection and exposure to potentially stressful environmental conditions. Their effects, however, are often considered in isolation, and then only at the population level, despite there being great potential for synergistic selection on the individual. We explored how fishing and climate variability interact to affect an important driver of fishery productivity and population dynamics: individual growth rate. We projected that average growth rate would increase as waters warm, a harvest-induced release from density dependence would promote adult growth, and that fishing would increase the sensitivity of somatic growth to temperature. We measured growth increments from the otoliths of 400 purple wrasse (Notolabrius funicola), a site-attached temperate marine reef fish inhabiting an ocean warming hotspot. These were used to generate nearly two decades of annually resolved growth estimates from three populations spanning a period before and after the onset of commercial fishing. We used hierarchical models to partition variation in growth within and between individuals and populations, and attribute it to intrinsic (age, individual-specific) and extrinsic (local and regional climate, fishing) drivers. At the population scale, we detected predictable additive increases in average growth rate associated with warming and a release from density dependence. A fishing-warming synergy only became apparent at the individual scale where harvest resulted in the 50% reduction of thermal growth reaction norm diversity. This phenotypic change was primarily caused by the loss of larger individuals that showed a strong positive response to temperature change after the onset of size-selective harvesting. We speculate that the dramatic loss of individual-level biocomplexity is caused by either inadvertent fisheries selectivity based on behaviour, or the disruption of social hierarchies resulting from the selective harvesting of large, dominant and resource-rich individuals. Whatever the cause, the removal of individuals that display a positive growth response to temperature could substantially reduce species' capacity to adapt to climate change at temperatures well below those previously thought stressful.

Levels and temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) from the southern Barents Sea

Liver samples of two gadoid species, Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus), sampled in the southern Barents Sea in the period 1992-2015, were studied for the levels of six types of persistent organic pollutants (POPs): polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), chlorinated organic pesticides (DDTs, hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), trans-nonachlor (TNC)), and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs). Higher average levels were found in cod than in haddock. Sampling approximately every third year allowed studies of temporal trends for all the compound groups except PBDEs. Time series are reported for 1992-2015 for Atlantic cod and for 1998-2015 for haddock. Decreasing temporal trends have been modeled in cod for the analyzed POPs for this time period. The decrease seems to be slowing down in the later years. HCB levels showed least decrease with time among all the contaminants, with the poorest fit to the proposed model. Similar time trends were found in haddock, but the decrease is less apparent due to shorter time series. The observed time trends of legacy POPs document the effectiveness of efforts during the 1990s to reduce the levels of these contaminants in the marine environment but question the possibility to eliminate them altogether from the marine environment in the foreseeable future.

Divergent responses of Atlantic cod to ocean acidification and food limitation

In order to understand the effect of global change on marine fishes, it is imperative to quantify the effects on fundamental parameters such as survival and growth. Larval survival and recruitment of the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) were found to be heavily impaired by end-of-century levels of ocean acidification. Here, we analysed larval growth among 35-36 days old surviving larvae, along with organ development and ossification of the skeleton. We combined CO₂ treatments (ambient: 503 µatm, elevated: 1,179 µatm) with food availability in order to evaluate the effect of energy limitation in addition to the ocean acidification stressor. As expected, larval size (as a proxy for growth) and skeletogenesis were positively affected by high food availability. We found significant interactions between acidification and food availability. Larvae fed ad libitum showed little difference in growth and skeletogenesis due to the CO₂ treatment. Larvae under energy limitation were significantly larger and had further developed skeletal structures in the elevated CO₂ treatment compared to the ambient CO₂ treatment. However, the elevated CO₂ group revealed impairments in critically important organs, such as the liver, and had comparatively smaller functional gills indicating a mismatch between size and function. It is therefore likely that individual larvae that had survived acidification treatments will suffer from impairments later during ontogeny. Our study highlights important allocation trade-off between growth and organ development, which is critically important to interpret acidification effects on early life stages of fish.

Ticket to spawn: Combining economic and genetic data to evaluate the effect of climate and demographic structure on spawning distribution in Atlantic cod

Climate warming and harvesting affect the dynamics of species across the globe through a multitude of mechanisms, including distribution changes. In fish, migrations to and distribution on spawning grounds are likely influenced by both climate warming and harvesting. The Northeast Arctic (NEA) cod (Gadus morhua) performs seasonal migrations from its feeding grounds in the Barents Sea to spawning grounds along the Norwegian coast. The distribution of cod between the spawning grounds has historically changed at decadal scales, mainly due to variable use of the northern and southern margins of the spawning area. Based on historical landing records, two major hypotheses have been put forward to explain these changes: climate and harvesting. Climate could affect the distribution through, for example, spatial habitat shifts. Harvesting could affect the distribution through impacting the demographic structure. If demographic structure is important, theory predicts increasing spawner size with migration distance. Here, we evaluate these hypotheses with modern data from a period (2000-2016) of increasing temperature and recovering stock structure. We first analyze economic data from the Norwegian fisheries to investigate geographical differences in size of spawning fish among spawning grounds, as well as interannual differences in mean latitude of spawning in relation to changes in temperature and demographic parameters. Second, we analyze genetically determined fish sampled at the spawning grounds to unambiguously separate between migratory NEA cod and potentially smaller sized coastal cod of local origin. Our results indicate smaller spawners farther away from the feeding grounds, hence not supporting the hypothesis that harvesting is a main driver for the contemporary spawning ground distribution. We find a positive correlation between annual mean spawning latitude and temperature. In conclusion, based on contemporary data, there is more support for climate compared to harvesting in shaping spawning ground distribution in this major fish stock in the North Atlantic Ocean.

Functional roles and redundancy of demersal Barents Sea fish: Ecological implications of environmental change

When facing environmental change and intensified anthropogenic impact on marine ecosystems, extensive knowledge of how these systems are functioning is required in order to manage them properly. However, in high-latitude ecosystems, where climate change is expected to have substantial ecological impact, the ecosystem functions of biological species have received little attention, partly due to the limited biological knowledge of Arctic species. Functional traits address the ecosystem functions of member species, allowing the functionality of communities to be characterised and the degree of functional redundancy to be assessed. Ecosystems with higher functional redundancy are expected to be less affected by species loss, and therefore less sensitive to disturbance. Here we highlight and compare typical functional characteristics of Arctic and boreal fish in the Barents Sea and address the consequences of a community-wide reorganization driven by climate warming on functional redundancy and characterization. Based on trait and fish community composition data, we assessed functional redundancy of the Barents Sea fish community for the period 2004-2012, a period during which this northern region was characterized by rapidly warming water masses and declining sea ice coverage. We identified six functional groups, with distinct spatial distributions, that collectively provide a functional characterization of Barents Sea fish. The functional groups displayed different prevalence in boreal and Arctic water masses. Some functional groups displayed a spatial expansion towards the northeast during the study period, whereas other groups showed a general decline in functional redundancy. Presently, the observed patterns of functional redundancy would seem to provide sufficient scope for buffering against local loss in functional diversity only for the more speciose functional groups. Furthermore, the observed functional reconfiguration may affect future ecosystem functioning in the area. In a period of rapid environmental change, monitoring programs integrating functional traits will help inform management on ecosystem functioning and vulnerability.

Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock

Predicting fish stock variations on interannual to decadal time scales is one of the major issues in fisheries science and management. Although the field of marine ecological predictions is still in its infancy, it is understood that a major source of multi-year predictability resides in the ocean. Here we show the first highly skilful long-term predictions of the commercially valuable Barents Sea cod stock. The 7-year predictions are based on the propagation of ocean temperature anomalies from the subpolar North Atlantic toward the Barents Sea, and the strong co-variability between these temperature anomalies and the cod stock. Retrospective predictions for the period 1957-2017 capture well multi-year to decadal variations in cod stock biomass, with cross-validated explained variance of over 60%. For lead times longer than one year the statistical long-term predictions show more skill than operational short-term predictions used in fisheries management and lagged persistence forecasts. Our results thus demonstrate the potential for ecosystem-based fisheries management, which could enable strategic planning on longer time scales. Future predictions show a gradual decline in the cod stock towards 2024.

Seasonal dynamics of spatial distributions and overlap between Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) and capelin (Mallotus villosus) in the Barents Sea

The trophic link between cod (Gadus sp.) and capelin (Mallotus sp.) is important in many panarctic ecosystems. Since the early 2000s, the Northeast Arctic cod stock (G. morhua) in the Barents Sea has increased greatly, and the sea has been exceptionally warm. Such changes have potentially large effects on species distributions and overlap, which in turn could affect the strength of species interactions. Due to its high latitude location, the Barents Sea has strong seasonal variation in physical conditions and interactions. To study drivers of variation in cod-capelin overlap, we use data from two annual surveys run in winter and in autumn of 2004–2015. We first model winter and autumn spatial distributions of mature and immature cod and capelin. We then calculate overlap from model predictions on a grid with similar spatial resolution as the survey data. Our approach allowed us to interpret changes in overlap as species-specific effects of stock size and temperature, while accounting for sampling variation due to sampling time and depth. We found that during winter both species expanded their distribution in response to increased stock sizes, but how strongly and where the expansion occurred varied. The effect of temperature on distributions varied in space, and differed for cod and capelin and for different components of the two species. The results for autumn were clearer and more consistent. Both species expanded their distribution areas as their stock sizes increased. A positive effect of temperature was found in the north-eastern Barents Sea, where temperatures were lowest at the start of the study. Overlap increased and shifted north-eastwards during the study period and remained high despite a decline in the capelin stock. The increased overlap during autumn could mainly be attributed to the shift in cod distribution with increased cod stock biomass.

Effects of parental acclimation and energy limitation in response to high CO2 exposure in Atlantic cod

Ocean acidification (OA), the dissolution of excess anthropogenic carbon dioxide in ocean waters, is a potential stressor to many marine fish species. Whether species have the potential to acclimate and adapt to changes in the seawater carbonate chemistry is still largely unanswered. Simulation experiments across several generations are challenging for large commercially exploited species because of their long generation times. For Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), we present first data on the effects of parental acclimation to elevated aquatic CO₂ on larval survival, a fundamental parameter determining population recruitment. The parental generation in this study was exposed to either ambient or elevated aquatic CO₂ levels simulating end-of-century OA levels (~1100 µatm CO₂) for six weeks prior to spawning. Upon fully reciprocal exposure of the F1 generation, we quantified larval survival, combined with two larval feeding regimes in order to investigate the potential effect of energy limitation. We found a significant reduction in larval survival at elevated CO₂ that was partly compensated by parental acclimation to the same CO₂ exposure. Such compensation was only observed in the treatment with high food availability. This complex 3-way interaction indicates that surplus metabolic resources need to be available to allow a transgenerational alleviation response to ocean acidification.

Combined effects of fishing and oil spills on marine fish: Role of stock demographic structure for offspring overlap with oil

It has been proposed that the multiple pressures of fishing and petroleum activities impact fish stocks in synergy, as fishing-induced demographic changes in a stock may lead to increased sensitivity to detrimental effects of acute oil spills. High fishing pressure may erode the demographic structure of fish stocks, lead to less diverse spawning strategies, and more concentrated distributions of offspring in space and time. Hence an oil spill may potentially hit a larger fraction of a year-class of offspring. Such a link between demographic structure and egg distribution was recently demonstrated for the Northeast Arctic stock of Atlantic cod for years 1959-1993. We here estimate that this variation translates into a two-fold variation in the maximal proportion of cod eggs potentially exposed to a large oil spill. With this information it is possible to quantitatively account for demographic structure in prospective studies of population effects of possible oil spills.

Reproduction and recruitment of sympatric fish species on an intertidal rocky shore

The reproductive cycle of seven common species (Gobius paganellus, Gobius bucchichi, Gobius cobitis, Parablennius sanguinolentus, Salaria pavo, Tripterygion tartessicum and Symphodus roissali) on rocky shores in the Gulf of Cadiz and their relationship with the sea surface temperature (SST) is analysed. Partial data on Scorpaena porcus are also given. Fecundity of these short lifespan species shows a positive linear correlation between the number of oocytes and an increase in female size. Spawnings are concentrated in the first 7 months of the year. An analysis of reproductive growth with respect to SST shows that water temperature in the winter months affects the timing of the onset of reproduction in most species. Recruitment is takes place throughout the year, but a temporal segregation within different families occurs in their spawning as well as recruitment.

Climate vulnerability and resilience in the most valuable North American fishery

Managing natural resources in an era of increasing climate impacts requires accounting for the synergistic effects of climate, ecosystem changes, and harvesting on resource productivity. Coincident with recent exceptional warming of the northwest Atlantic Ocean and removal of large predatory fish, the American lobster has become the most valuable fishery resource in North America. Using a model that links ocean temperature, predator density, and fishing to population productivity, we show that harvester-driven conservation efforts to protect large lobsters prepared the Gulf of Maine lobster fishery to capitalize on favorable ecosystem conditions, resulting in the record-breaking landings recently observed in the region. In contrast, in the warmer southern New England region, the absence of similar conservation efforts precipitated warming-induced recruitment failure that led to the collapse of the fishery. Population projections under expected warming suggest that the American lobster fishery is vulnerable to future temperature increases, but continued efforts to preserve the stock's reproductive potential can dampen the negative impacts of warming. This study demonstrates that, even though global climate change is severely impacting marine ecosystems, widely adopted, proactive conservation measures can increase the resilience of commercial fisheries to climate change.

Decadal Changes in the Edible Supply of Seafood and Methylmercury Exposure in the United States

BACKGROUND

Methylmercury (MeHg) exposure is associated with adverse effects on neurodevelopment and cardiovascular health. Previous work indicates most MeHg is from marine fish sold in the commercial market, but does not fully resolve supply regions globally. This information is critical for linking changes in environmental MeHg levels to human exposure in the U.S. population.

OBJECTIVES

We used available data to estimate the geographic origins of seafood consumed in the United States (major ocean basins, coastal fisheries, aquaculture, freshwater) and how shifts in edible supply affected MeHg exposures between 2000-2002 and 2010-2012.

METHODS

Source regions for edible seafood and MeHg exposure in the United States were characterized from national and international landing, export and import data from the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations and the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service.

RESULTS

Our analysis suggests 37% of U.S. population-wide MeHg exposure is from mainly domestic coastal systems and 45% from open ocean ecosystems. We estimate that the Pacific Ocean alone supplies more than half of total MeHg exposure. Aquaculture and freshwater fisheries together account for an estimated 18% of total MeHg intake. Shifts in seafood types and supply regions between 2000-2002 and 2010-2012 reflect changes in consumer preferences (e.g., away from canned light meat tuna), global ecosystem shifts (e.g., northern migration of cod stocks), and increasing supply from aquaculture (e.g., shrimp and salmon).

CONCLUSION

Our findings indicate global actions that reduce anthropogenic Hg emissions will be beneficial for U.S. seafood consumers because open ocean ecosystems supply a large fraction of their MeHg exposure. However, our estimates suggest that domestic actions can provide the greatest benefit for coastal seafood consumers. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2644.

Forecasting future recruitment success for Atlantic cod in the warming and acidifying Barents Sea

Productivity of marine fish stocks is known to be affected by environmental and ecological drivers, and global climate change is anticipated to alter recruitment success of many stocks. While the direct effects of environmental drivers on fish early life stage survival can be quantified experimentally, indirect effects in marine ecosystems and the role of adaptation are still highly uncertain. We developed an integrative model for the effects of ocean warming and acidification on the early life stages of Atlantic cod in the Barents Sea, termed SCREI (Simulator of Cod Recruitment under Environmental Influences). Experimental results on temperature and CO₂ effects on egg fertilization, egg and larval survival and development times are incorporated. Calibration using empirical time series of egg production, temperature, food and predator abundance reproduces age-0 recruitment over three decades. We project trajectories of recruitment success under different scenarios and quantify confidence limits based on variation in experiments. A publicly accessible web version of the SCREI model can be run under www.oceanchange.uni-bremen.de/;SCREI. Severe reductions in average age-0 recruitment success of Barents Sea cod are projected under uncompensated warming and acidification toward the middle to end of this century. Although high population stochasticity was found, considerable rates of evolutionary adaptation to acidification and shifts in organismal thermal windows would be needed to buffer impacts on recruitment. While increases in food availability may mitigate short-term impacts, an increase in egg production achieved by stock management could provide more long-term safety for cod recruitment success. The SCREI model provides a novel integration of multiple driver effects in different life stages and enables an estimation of uncertainty associated with interindividual and ecological variation. The model thus helps to advance toward an improved empirical foundation for quantifying climate change impacts on marine fish recruitment, relevant for ecosystem-based assessments of marine systems under climate change.

Assessing impacts of simulated oil spills on the Northeast Arctic cod fishery

We simulate oil spills of 1500 and 4500m³/day lasting 14, 45, and 90days in the spawning grounds of the commercial fish species, Northeast Arctic cod. Modeling the life history of individual fish eggs and larvae, we predict deviations from the historical pattern of recruitment to the adult population due to toxic oil exposures. Reductions in survival for pelagic stages of cod were 0-10%, up to a maximum of 43%. These reductions resulted in a decrease in adult cod biomass of <3% for most scenarios, up to a maximum of 12%. In all simulations, the adult population remained at full reproductive potential with a sufficient number of juveniles surviving to replenish the population. The diverse age distribution helps protect the adult cod population from reductions in a single year's recruitment after a major oil spill. These results provide insights to assist in managing oil spill impacts on fisheries.

Seafood from a changing Arctic

We review current knowledge about climate change impacts on Arctic seafood production. Large-scale changes in the Arctic marine food web can be expected for the next 40-100 years. Possible future trajectories under climate change for Arctic capture fisheries anticipate the movement of aquatic species into new waters and changed the dynamics of existing species. Negative consequences are expected for some fish stocks but others like the Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua) may instead increase. Arctic aquaculture that constitutes about 2% of global farming is mainly made up of Norwegian salmon (Salmo salar) farming. The sector will face many challenges in a warmer future and some of these are already a reality impacting negatively on salmon growth. Other more indirect effects from climate change are more uncertain with respect to impacts on the economic conditions of Arctic aquaculture.

Differences in neurochemical profiles of two gadid species under ocean warming and acidification

Background

Exposure to future ocean acidification scenarios may alter the behaviour of marine teleosts through interference with neuroreceptor functioning. So far, most studies investigated effects of ocean acidification on the behaviour of fish, either isolated or in combination with environmental temperature. However, only few physiological studies on this issue were conducted despite the putative neurophysiological origin of the CO₂-induced behavioural changes. Here, we present the metabolic consequences of long-term exposure to projected ocean acidification (396–548 μatm PCO₂ under control and 915–1272 μatm under treatment conditions) and parallel warming in the brain of two related fish species, polar cod (Boreogadus saida, exposed to 0 °C, 3 °C, 6 °C and 8 °C) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua, exposed to 3 °C, 8 °C, 12 °C and 16 °C). It has been shown that B. saida is behaviourally vulnerable to future ocean acidification scenarios, while G. morhua demonstrates behavioural resilience.

Results

We found that temperature alters brain osmolyte, amino acid, choline and neurotransmitter concentrations in both species indicating thermal responses particularly in osmoregulation and membrane structure. In B. saida, changes in amino acid and osmolyte metabolism at the highest temperature tested were also affected by CO₂, possibly emphasizing energetic limitations. We did not observe changes in neurotransmitters, energy metabolites, membrane components or osmolytes that might serve as a compensatory mechanism against CO₂ induced behavioural impairments. In contrast to B. saida, such temperature limitation was not detected in G. morhua; however, at 8 °C, CO₂ induced an increase in the levels of metabolites of the glutamate/GABA-glutamine cycle potentially indicating greater GABAergic activity in G.morhua. Further, increased availability of energy-rich substrates was detected under these conditions.

Conclusions

Our results indicate a change of GABAergic metabolism in the nervous system of Gadus morhua close to the optimum of the temperature range. Since a former study showed that juvenile G. morhua might be slightly more behaviourally resilient to CO₂ at this respective temperature, we conclude that the observed change of GABAergic metabolism could be involved in counteracting OA induced behavioural changes. This may serve as a fitness advantage of this respective species compared to B. saida in a future warmer, more acidified polar ocean.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12983-017-0238-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Effects of ocean acidification increase embryonic sensitivity to thermal extremes in Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua

Thermal tolerance windows serve as a powerful tool for estimating the vulnerability of marine species and their life stages to increasing temperature means and extremes. However, it remains uncertain to which extent additional drivers, such as ocean acidification, modify organismal responses to temperature. This study investigated the effects of CO₂ -driven ocean acidification on embryonic thermal sensitivity and performance in Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua, from the Kattegat. Fertilized eggs were exposed to factorial combinations of two PCO₂ conditions (400 μatm vs. 1100 μatm) and five temperature treatments (0, 3, 6, 9 and 12 °C), which allow identifying both lower and upper thermal tolerance thresholds. We quantified hatching success, oxygen consumption (MO₂ ) and mitochondrial functioning of embryos as well as larval morphometrics at hatch and the abundance of acid-base-relevant ionocytes on the yolk sac epithelium of newly hatched larvae. Hatching success was high under ambient spawning conditions (3-6 °C), but decreased towards both cold and warm temperature extremes. Elevated PCO₂ caused a significant decrease in hatching success, particularly at cold (3 and 0 °C) and warm (12 °C) temperatures. Warming imposed limitations to MO₂ and mitochondrial capacities. Elevated PCO₂ stimulated MO₂ at cold and intermediate temperatures, but exacerbated warming-induced constraints on MO₂ , indicating a synergistic interaction with temperature. Mitochondrial functioning was not affected by PCO₂ . Increased MO₂ in response to elevated PCO₂ was paralleled by reduced larval size at hatch. Finally, ionocyte abundance decreased with increasing temperature, but did not differ between PCO₂ treatments. Our results demonstrate increased thermal sensitivity of cod embryos under future PCO₂ conditions and suggest that acclimation to elevated PCO₂ requires reallocation of limited resources at the expense of embryonic growth. We conclude that ocean acidification constrains the thermal performance window of embryos, which has important implication for the susceptibility of cod to projected climate change.

Effect of a fish stock's demographic structure on offspring survival and sensitivity to climate

Commercial fishing generally removes large and old individuals from fish stocks, reducing mean age and age diversity among spawners. It is feared that these demographic changes lead to lower and more variable recruitment to the stocks. A key proposed pathway is that juvenation and reduced size distribution causes reduced ranges in spawning period, spawning location, and egg buoyancy; this is proposed to lead to reduced spatial distribution of fish eggs and larvae, more homogeneous ambient environmental conditions within each year-class, and reduced buffering against negative environmental influences. However, few, if any, studies have confirmed a causal link from spawning stock demographic structure through egg and larval distribution to year class strength at recruitment. We here show that high mean age and size in the spawning stock of Barents Sea cod (Gadus morhua) is positively associated with high abundance and wide spatiotemporal distribution of cod eggs. We find, however, no support for the hypothesis that a wide egg distribution leads to higher recruitment or a weaker recruitment-temperature correlation. These results are based on statistical analyses of a spatially resolved data set on cod eggs covering a period (1959-1993) with large changes in biomass and demographic structure of spawners. The analyses also account for significant effects of spawning stock biomass and a liver condition index on egg abundance and distribution. Our results suggest that the buffering effect of a geographically wide distribution of eggs and larvae on fish recruitment may be insignificant compared with other impacts.

Roles of density-dependent growth and life history evolution in accounting for fisheries-induced trait changes

The relative roles of density dependence and life history evolution in contributing to rapid fisheries-induced trait changes remain debated. In the 1930s, northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua), currently the world's largest cod stock, experienced a shift from a traditional spawning-ground fishery to an industrial trawl fishery with elevated exploitation in the stock's feeding grounds. Since then, age and length at maturation have declined dramatically, a trend paralleled in other exploited stocks worldwide. These trends can be explained by demographic truncation of the population's age structure, phenotypic plasticity in maturation arising through density-dependent growth, fisheries-induced evolution favoring faster-growing or earlier-maturing fish, or a combination of these processes. Here, we use a multitrait eco-evolutionary model to assess the capacity of these processes to reproduce 74 y of historical data on age and length at maturation in northeast Arctic cod, while mimicking the stock's historical harvesting regime. Our results show that model predictions critically depend on the assumed density dependence of growth: when this is weak, life history evolution might be necessary to prevent stock collapse, whereas when a stronger density dependence estimated from recent data is used, the role of evolution in explaining fisheries-induced trait changes is diminished. Our integrative analysis of density-dependent growth, multitrait evolution, and stock-specific time series data underscores the importance of jointly considering evolutionary and ecological processes, enabling a more comprehensive perspective on empirically observed stock dynamics than previous studies could provide.

Climate change alters the structure of arctic marine food webs due to poleward shifts of boreal generalists

Climate-driven poleward shifts, leading to changes in species composition and relative abundances, have been recently documented in the Arctic. Among the fastest moving species are boreal generalist fish which are expected to affect arctic marine food web structure and ecosystem functioning substantially. Here, we address structural changes at the food web level induced by poleward shifts via topological network analysis of highly resolved boreal and arctic food webs of the Barents Sea. We detected considerable differences in structural properties and link configuration between the boreal and the arctic food webs, the latter being more modular and less connected. We found that a main characteristic of the boreal fish moving poleward into the arctic region of the Barents Sea is high generalism, a property that increases connectance and reduces modularity in the arctic marine food web. Our results reveal that habitats form natural boundaries for food web modules, and that generalists play an important functional role in coupling pelagic and benthic modules. We posit that these habitat couplers have the potential to promote the transfer of energy and matter between habitats, but also the spread of pertubations, thereby changing arctic marine food web structure considerably with implications for ecosystem dynamics and functioning.