Climate change, pink salmon, and the nexus between bottom-up and top-down forcing in the subarctic Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea

Evidence of successful recruitment of non-native pink salmon Oncorhynchus gorbuscha in Iceland

In mid-May 2022, pink salmon Oncorhynchus gorbuscha smolts were caught in the rivers Botnsá, Grímsá, and Langá in Iceland. This observation provides the first evidence of successful spawning and the completion of the freshwater phase of the life cycle in Icelandic rivers. It is the most western record of O. gorbuscha smolts in Europe, further west than Russia, Norway, and the UK. Smolts originating from Iceland potentially support the recruitment of this species in the North Atlantic and may lead to the establishment of a self-sustaining population in Iceland.

Marine ecosystem shifts with deglacial sea-ice loss inferred from ancient DNA shotgun sequencing

Sea ice is a key factor for the functioning and services provided by polar marine ecosystems. However, ecosystem responses to sea-ice loss are largely unknown because time-series data are lacking. Here, we use shotgun metagenomics of marine sedimentary ancient DNA off Kamchatka (Western Bering Sea) covering the last ~20,000 years. We traced shifts from a sea ice-adapted late-glacial ecosystem, characterized by diatoms, copepods, and codfish to an ice-free Holocene characterized by cyanobacteria, salmon, and herring. By providing information about marine ecosystem dynamics across a broad taxonomic spectrum, our data show that ancient DNA will be an important new tool in identifying long-term ecosystem responses to climate transitions for improvements of ocean and cryosphere risk assessments. We conclude that continuing sea-ice decline on the northern Bering Sea shelf might impact on carbon export and disrupt benthic food supply and could allow for a northward expansion of salmon and Pacific herring.

Non-stationary and interactive effects of climate and competition on pink salmon productivity

Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) are exposed to increased environmental change and multiple human stressors. To anticipate future impacts of global change and to improve sustainable resource management, it is critical to understand how wild salmon populations respond to stressors associated with human-caused changes such as climate warming and ocean acidification, as well as competition in the ocean, which is intensified by the large-scale production and release of hatchery reared salmon. Pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) are a keystone species in the North Pacific Ocean and support highly valuable commercial fisheries. We investigated the joint effects of changes in ocean conditions and salmon abundances on the productivity of wild pink salmon. Our analysis focused on Prince William Sound in Alaska, because the region accounts for ~50% of the global production of hatchery pink salmon with local hatcheries releasing 600-700 million pink salmon fry annually. Using 60 years of data on wild pink salmon abundances, hatchery releases, and ecological conditions in the ocean, we find evidence that hatchery pink salmon releases negatively affect wild pink salmon productivity, likely through competition between wild and hatchery juveniles in nearshore marine habitats. We find no evidence for effects of ocean acidification on pink salmon productivity. However, a change in the leading mode of North Pacific climate in 1988-1989 weakened the temperature-productivity relationship and altered the strength of intraspecific density dependence. Therefore, our results suggest non-stationary (i.e., time varying) and interactive effects of ocean climate and competition on pink salmon productivity. Our findings further highlight the need for salmon management to consider potential adverse effects of large-scale hatchery production within the context of ocean change.

Pathways between Climate, Fish, Fisheries, and Management: A Conceptual Integrated Ecosystem Management Approach

The abundance and distribution of marine fishes is influenced by environmental conditions, predator–prey relationships, multispecies interactions, and direct human impacts, such as fishing. The adaptive response of the system depends on its structure and the pathways that link environmental factors to the taxon in question. The “Star Diagram” is a socio-ecological model of marine ecosystems that depicts the general pathways between climate, fish, and fisheries, and their intersection with climate policy and resource management. We illustrate its use by identifying the key factors, pathways and drivers that influence walleye pollock, crab, and sockeye salmon, under a warming scenario on the eastern Bering Sea shelf. This approach predicts that all three species will see reduced populations under a long-term warming scenario. Going forward, the challenge to managers is to balance the magnitude of the effect of harvest and the adaptability of their management system, with the scale and degree of resilience and the behavioral, physiological, or evolutionary adaptation of the ecosystem and its constituents. The Star Diagram provides a novel conceptual construct that managers can use to visualize and integrate the various aspects of the system into a holistic, socio-ecological management framework.

The pink salmon genome: Uncovering the genomic consequences of a two-year life cycle

Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) adults are the smallest of the five Pacific salmon native to the western Pacific Ocean. Pink salmon are also the most abundant of these species and account for a large proportion of the commercial value of the salmon fishery worldwide. A two-year life history of pink salmon generates temporally isolated populations that spawn either in even-years or odd-years. To uncover the influence of this genetic isolation, reference genome assemblies were generated for each year-class and whole genome re-sequencing data was collected from salmon of both year-classes. The salmon were sampled from six Canadian rivers and one Japanese river. At multiple centromeres we identified peaks of Fst between year-classes that were millions of base-pairs long. The largest Fst peak was also associated with a million base-pair chromosomal polymorphism found in the odd-year genome near a centromere. These Fst peaks may be the result of a centromere drive or a combination of reduced recombination and genetic drift, and they could influence speciation. Other regions of the genome influenced by odd-year and even-year temporal isolation and tentatively under selection were mostly associated with genes related to immune function, organ development/maintenance, and behaviour.

Using stable isotopes to infer stock-specific high-seas distribution of maturing sockeye salmon in the North Pacific

The stock-specific distribution of maturing salmon in the North Pacific has been a persistent information gap that has prevented us from determining the ocean conditions experienced by individual stocks. This continues to impede understanding of the role of ocean conditions in stock-specific population dynamics. We assessed scale archives for 17 sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks covering the entire North Pacific, from the Columbia River (Washington State and British Columbia) to Kamchatka Peninsula (Russia), to infer salmon locations during their last growing season before returning to their spawning grounds. The approach used, first pioneered in salmon stocks in the Atlantic, relies on the relationship between temporal changes in δ13C in salmon scales and sea surface temperature to estimate salmon distribution based on correlation strength. An advantage of this approach is that it does not require fish sampling at sea, but relies on existing fishery agency collections of salmon scales. Significant correlations were found for 7 of the stocks allowing us to propose plausible feeding grounds. Complementary information from δ15N, historical tagging studies, and connectivity analysis were used to further refine distribution estimates. This study is a first step toward estimating stock-specific distributions of salmon in the North Pacific and provides a basis for the application of the approach to other salmon scale archives. This information has the potential to improve our ability to relate stock dynamics to ocean conditions, ultimately enabling improved stock management. For example, our estimated distributions of Bristol Bay and NE Pacific stocks demonstrated that they occupy different areas with a number of the former being distributed in the high productivity shelf waters of the Aleutian Islands and Bering Sea. This may explain why these stocks seem to have responded differently to changes in ocean conditions, and the long-term trend of increased productivity of Bristol Bay sockeye.

Recent declines in salmon body size impact ecosystems and fisheries

Declines in animal body sizes are widely reported and likely impact ecological interactions and ecosystem services. For harvested species subject to multiple stressors, limited understanding of the causes and consequences of size declines impedes prediction, prevention, and mitigation. We highlight widespread declines in Pacific salmon size based on 60 years of measurements from 12.5 million fish across Alaska, the last largely pristine North American salmon-producing region. Declines in salmon size, primarily resulting from shifting age structure, are associated with climate and competition at sea. Compared to salmon maturing before 1990, the reduced size of adult salmon after 2010 has potentially resulted in substantial losses to ecosystems and people; for Chinook salmon we estimated average per-fish reductions in egg production (-16%), nutrient transport (-28%), fisheries value (-21%), and meals for rural people (-26%). Downsizing of organisms is a global concern, and current trends may pose substantial risks for nature and people.

Extreme mortality and reproductive failure of common murres resulting from the northeast Pacific marine heatwave of 2014-2016

About 62,000 dead or dying common murres (Uria aalge), the trophically dominant fish-eating seabird of the North Pacific, washed ashore between summer 2015 and spring 2016 on beaches from California to Alaska. Most birds were severely emaciated and, so far, no evidence for anything other than starvation was found to explain this mass mortality. Three-quarters of murres were found in the Gulf of Alaska and the remainder along the West Coast. Studies show that only a fraction of birds that die at sea typically wash ashore, and we estimate that total mortality approached 1 million birds. About two-thirds of murres killed were adults, a substantial blow to breeding populations. Additionally, 22 complete reproductive failures were observed at multiple colonies region-wide during (2015) and after (2016-2017) the mass mortality event. Die-offs and breeding failures occur sporadically in murres, but the magnitude, duration and spatial extent of this die-off, associated with multi-colony and multi-year reproductive failures, is unprecedented and astonishing. These events co-occurred with the most powerful marine heatwave on record that persisted through 2014-2016 and created an enormous volume of ocean water (the "Blob") from California to Alaska with temperatures that exceeded average by 2-3 standard deviations. Other studies indicate that this prolonged heatwave reduced phytoplankton biomass and restructured zooplankton communities in favor of lower-calorie species, while it simultaneously increased metabolically driven food demands of ectothermic forage fish. In response, forage fish quality and quantity diminished. Similarly, large ectothermic groundfish were thought to have increased their demand for forage fish, resulting in greater top-predator demands for diminished forage fish resources. We hypothesize that these bottom-up and top-down forces created an "ectothermic vise" on forage species leading to their system-wide scarcity and resulting in mass mortality of murres and many other fish, bird and mammal species in the region during 2014-2017.

Unusual mortality of Tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) in the eastern Bering Sea

Mass mortality events are increasing in frequency and magnitude, potentially linked with ongoing climate change. In October 2016 through January 2017, St. Paul Island, Bering Sea, Alaska, experienced a mortality event of alcids (family: Alcidae), with over 350 carcasses recovered. Almost three-quarters of the carcasses were unscavenged, a rate much higher than in baseline surveys (17%), suggesting ongoing deposition and elevated mortality around St Paul over a 2–3 month period. Based on the observation that carcasses were not observed on the neighboring island of St. George, we bounded the at-sea distribution of moribund birds, and estimated all species mortality at 3,150 to 8,800 birds. The event was particularly anomalous given the late fall/winter timing when low numbers of beached birds are typical. In addition, the predominance of Tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata, 79% of carcass finds) and Crested auklets (Aethia cristatella, 11% of carcass finds) was unusual, as these species are nearly absent from long-term baseline surveys. Collected specimens were severely emaciated, suggesting starvation as the ultimate cause of mortality. The majority (95%, N = 245) of Tufted puffins were adults regrowing flight feathers, indicating a potential contribution of molt stress. Immediately prior to this event, shifts in zooplankton community composition and in forage fish distribution and energy density were documented in the eastern Bering Sea following a period of elevated sea surface temperatures, evidence cumulatively suggestive of a bottom-up shift in seabird prey availability. We posit that shifts in prey composition and/or distribution, combined with the onset of molt, resulted in this mortality event.

Non-stationary climate-salmon relationships in the Gulf of Alaska

Studies of climate effects on ecology often account for non-stationarity in individual physical and biological variables, but rarely allow for non-stationary relationships among variables. Here, we show that non-stationary relationships among physical and biological variables are central to understanding climate effects on salmon (Onchorynchus spp.) in the Gulf of Alaska during 1965-2012. The relative importance of two leading patterns in North Pacific climate, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), changed around 1988/1989 as reflected by changing correlations with leading axes of sea surface temperature variability. Simultaneously, relationships between the PDO and Gulf of Alaska environmental variables weakened, and long-standing temperature-salmon and PDO-salmon covariance declined to zero. We propose a mechanistic explanation for changing climate-salmon relationships in terms of non-stationary atmosphere-ocean interactions coinciding with changing PDO-NPGO relative importance. We also show that regression models assuming stationary climate-salmon relationships are inappropriate over the multidecadal time scale we consider. Relaxing assumptions of stationary relationships markedly improved modelling of climate effects on salmon catches and productivity. Attempts to understand the implications of changing climate patterns in other ecosystems might also be aided by the application of models that allow associations among environmental and biological variables to change over time.

Transhemispheric ecosystem disservices of pink salmon in a Pacific Ocean macrosystem

Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) in the North Pacific Ocean have flourished since the 1970s, with growth in wild populations augmented by rising hatchery production. As their abundance has grown, so too has evidence that they are having important effects on other species and on ocean ecosystems. In alternating years of high abundance, they can initiate pelagic trophic cascades in the northern North Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea and depress the availability of common prey resources of other species of salmon, resident seabirds, and other pelagic species. We now propose that the geographic scale of ecosystem disservices of pink salmon is far greater due to a 15,000-kilometer transhemispheric teleconnection in a Pacific Ocean macrosystem maintained by short-tailed shearwaters (Ardenna tenuirostris), seabirds that migrate annually between their nesting grounds in the South Pacific Ocean and wintering grounds in the North Pacific Ocean. Over this century, the frequency and magnitude of mass mortalities of shearwaters as they arrive in Australia, and their abundance and productivity, have been related to the abundance of pink salmon. This has influenced human social, economic, and cultural traditions there, and has the potential to alter the role shearwaters play in insular terrestrial ecology. We can view the unique biennial pulses of pink salmon as a large, replicated, natural experiment that offers basin-scale opportunities to better learn how these ecosystems function. By exploring trophic interaction chains driven by pink salmon, we may achieve a deeper conservation conscientiousness for these northern open oceans.

Evaluating signals of oil spill impacts, climate, and species interactions in Pacific herring and Pacific salmon populations in Prince William Sound and Copper River, Alaska

The Exxon Valdez oil spill occurred in March 1989 in Prince William Sound, Alaska, and was one of the worst environmental disasters on record in the United States. Despite long-term data collection over the nearly three decades since the spill, tremendous uncertainty remains as to how significantly the spill affected fishery resources. Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) and some wild Pacific salmon populations (Oncorhynchus spp.) in Prince William Sound declined in the early 1990s, and have not returned to the population sizes observed in the 1980s. Discerning if, or how much of, this decline resulted from the oil spill has been difficult because a number of other physical and ecological drivers are confounded temporally with the spill; some of these drivers include environmental variability or changing climate regimes, increased production of hatchery salmon in the region, and increases in populations of potential predators. Using data pre- and post-spill, we applied time-series methods to evaluate support for whether and how herring and salmon productivity has been affected by each of five drivers: (1) density dependence, (2) the EVOS event, (3) changing environmental conditions, (4) interspecific competition on juvenile fish, and (5) predation and competition from adult fish or, in the case of herring, humpback whales. Our results showed support for intraspecific density-dependent effects in herring, sockeye, and Chinook salmon, with little overall support for an oil spill effect. Of the salmon species, the largest driver was the negative impact of adult pink salmon returns on sockeye salmon productivity. Herring productivity was most strongly affected by changing environmental conditions; specifically, freshwater discharge into the Gulf of Alaska was linked to a series of recruitment failures-before, during, and after EVOS. These results highlight the need to better understand long terms impacts of pink salmon on food webs, as well as the interactions between nearshore species and freshwater inputs, particularly as they relate to climate change and increasing water temperatures.

Unravelling the relative roles of top-down and bottom-up forces driving population change in an oceanic predator

In the open ocean ecosystem, climate and anthropogenic changes have driven biological change at both ends of the food chain. Understanding how the population dynamics of pelagic predators are simultaneously influenced by nutrient‐driven processes acting from the “bottom‐up” and predator‐driven processes acting from the “top‐down” is therefore considered an urgent task. Using a state‐space demographic model, we evaluated the population trajectory of an oceanic predator, the Macaroni Penguin (Eudyptes chrysolophus), and numerically assessed the relative importance of bottom‐up and top‐down drivers acting through different demographic rates. The population trajectory was considerably more sensitive to changes in top‐down control of survival compared to bottom‐up control of survival or productivity. This study integrates a unique set of demographic and covariate data and highlights the benefits of using a single estimation framework to examine the links between covariates, demographic rates and population dynamics.

Humans as a Hyperkeystone Species

Ecologists have identified numerous keystone species, defined as organisms that have outsized ecological impacts relative to their biomass. Here we identify human beings as a higher-order or 'hyperkeystone' species that drives complex interaction chains by affecting other keystone actors across different habitats. Strong indirect effects and a global reach further characterize these interactions and amplify the impacts of human activities on diverse ecosystems, from oceans to forests. We require better understanding of hyperkeystone interaction chains most urgently, especially for marine species and terrestrial large carnivores, which experience relatively higher exploitation rates than other species. This requires innovative approaches that integrate the study of human behavior with food-web theory, and which might provide surprising new insights into the complex ecology of our own species.

Relative Importance of Biotic and Abiotic Forces on the Composition and Dynamics of a Soft-Sediment Intertidal Community

Top-down, bottom-up, middle-out and abiotic factors are usually viewed as main forces structuring biological communities, although assessment of their relative importance, in a single study, is rarely done. We quantified, using multivariate methods, associations between abiotic and biotic (top-down, bottom-up and middle-out) variables and infaunal population/community variation on intertidal mudflats in the Bay of Fundy, Canada, over two years. Our analysis indicated that spatial structural factors like site and plot accounted for most of the community and population variation. Although we observed a significant relationship between the community/populations and the biotic and abiotic variables, most were of minor importance relative to the structural factors. We suggest that community and population structure were relatively uncoupled from the structuring influences of biotic and abiotic factors in this system because of high concentrations of resources that sustain high densities of infauna and limit exploitative competition. Furthermore, we hypothesize that the infaunal community primarily reflects stochastic spatial events, namely a “first come, first served” process.

Condition-dependent migratory behaviour of endangered Atlantic salmon smolts moving through an inland sea

The Bras d'Or Lake watershed of Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia, Canada is a unique inland sea ecosystem, UNESCO Biosphere Reserve and home to a group of regionally distinct Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations. Recent population decreases in this region have raised concern about their long-term persistence. We used acoustic telemetry to track the migrations of juvenile salmon (smolts) from the Middle River into the Bras d'Or Lake and, subsequently, into the Atlantic Ocean. Roughly half of the tagged smolts transited the Bras d'Or Lakes to the Atlantic Ocean, using a migration route that took them through the Gulf of St Lawrence's northern exit at the Strait of Belle Isle (∼650 km from the home river) towards feeding areas in the Labrador Sea and Greenland. However, a significant fraction spent >70 days in the Lakes, suggesting that this population has an alternative resident form, in which smolts limit their migrations within the Bras d'Or. Smolts in good relative condition (as determined from length-to-mass relationships) tended to be residents, whereas fish in poorer condition were ocean migrants. We also found a covarying effect of river temperature that helped to predict residence vs. ocean migration. We discuss these results relative to their bioenergetic implications and provide suggestions for future studies aimed at the conservation of declining salmon populations in Canada.

Wintering North Pacific black-legged kittiwakes balance spatial flexibility and consistency

BACKGROUND

Marine environments are inherently dynamic, yet marine predators are often long-lived and employ strategies where consistency, individual specialization, routine migrations, and spatial memory are key components to their foraging and life-history strategies. Intrinsic determinates of animal movements are linked to physiological and life-history traits (e.g. sex, colony, experience), while extrinsic influences occur as the result of an animal's interactions with either other animals or the environment (e.g. prey availability, weather, competition). Knowledge of the factors affecting animal movements is critical to understand energetic bottlenecks and population dynamics. Here, we attempt to understand the interaction of some of these factors on the winter distributions of a surface-feeding seabird in the North Pacific. Between 2008 and 2011, we tracked 99 black-legged kittiwakes breeding at St. Paul and St. George in the Pribilof Islands, Alaska using geolocation loggers. We tested for colony and sex differences in winter distributions, and individual spatial fidelity over two consecutive winters of 17 individuals. Then we linked tracking data to associated environmental conditions as proxies of prey availability (e.g. sea surface temperature, mesoscale eddies, chlorophyll a, and wind) to understand their influence on kittiwake space use at an ocean basin scale.

RESULTS

Black-legged kittiwakes from both Pribilof Islands primarily wintered in pelagic sub-arctic waters, however, distributions spanned seven ecoregions of the North Pacific. There was a high degree of similarity in area use of birds from the two closely situated colonies and between sexes. Birds tracked for two consecutive years showed higher fidelity to wintering areas than occurred at random. Annual changes were apparent, as distributions were further north in 2009/10 than 2008/09 or 2010/11. This occurred because 70 % of birds remained in the Bering Sea in the fall of 2009, which corresponded with lower October sea surface temperatures than the other two years.

CONCLUSIONS

Although individuals returned to wintering areas in consecutive years, our results suggest that under current conditions individual black-legged kittiwakes have a high capacity to alter winter distributions.

Temporally isolated lineages of pink salmon reveal unique signatures of selection on distinct pools of standing genetic variation

A species' genetic diversity bears the marks of evolutionary processes that have occurred throughout its history. However, robust detection of selection in wild populations is difficult and often impeded by lack of replicate tests. Here, we investigate selection in pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) using genome scans coupled with inference from a haploid-assisted linkage map. Pink salmon have a strict 2-year semelparous life history which has resulted in temporally isolated (allochronic) lineages that remain sympatric through sharing of spawning habitats in alternate years. The lineages differ in a range of adaptive traits, suggesting different genetic backgrounds. We used genotyping by sequencing of haploids to generate a high-density linkage map with 7035 loci and screened an existing panel of 8036 loci for signatures of selection. The linkage map enabled identification of novel genomic regions displaying signatures of parallel selection shared between lineages. Furthermore, 24 loci demonstrated divergent selection and differences in genetic diversity between lineages, suggesting that adaptation in the 2 lineages has arisen from different pools of standing genetic variation. Findings have implications for understanding asynchronous population abundances as well as predicting future ecosystem impacts from lineage-specific responses to climate change.