A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia

Post-Vaccination Sero-Monitoring of Peste des Petits Ruminants in Sheep and Goats in Karnataka: Progress towards PPR Eradication in India

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) presents economic challenges in enzootic countries impacting small ruminant productivity. The state of Karnataka, India, implemented a mass vaccination campaign in alignment with the PPR-Global Eradication Programme (GEP) and the National Strategic Plan for PPR eradication. This study was conducted from January to March 2023 to assess seroconversion in post-vaccinated goats and sheep at the epidemiological unit (epi-unit) level, aligning with the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) guidelines in the PPR Global Control and Eradication Strategy (GCES). Before vaccination, 3466 random serum samples were collected from small ruminants of three age groups (6-12 months, 1-2 years, and >2 years) across 116 epi-units, spanning 82 taluks in 28 districts. Post-vaccination sero-monitoring included 1102 serum samples collected from small ruminants of the 6-12-month age group only, across 111 epi-units covering 64 taluks in 23 districts. The PPRV antibody status was determined using an indigenous hemagglutinin (H) protein monoclonal antibody-based competitive ELISA kit. Pre-vaccination, the PPR seropositivity rates were 55%, 62%, and 66% in the age groups of 6-12 months, 1-2 years, and >2 years, respectively, with a 61% PPRV antibody prevalence across all the age groups. Notably, 41% of the epi-units exhibited antibody prevalence rates of ≥70%, indicating a substantial population immunity, possibly attributed to the previous vaccination program in the state since 2011. In contrast, only 17% of the epi-units had below 30% seroprevalence rates, emphasizing the need for intensified vaccination. Statistical analysis of the data revealed significant correlations (p < 0.05) between the presence of PPRV antibodies and host factors such as species, breed, and sex. Post-vaccination seroprevalence in the 6-12 months age group was found to be 73.4%, indicating the use of an efficacious vaccine. On the evaluation of vaccination immunity in the 6-12 months age group, it was revealed that over 69% of the epi-units achieved a response surpassing ≥70%, indicating a significant improvement from 42% of the epi-units in pre-vaccination. For active PPR eradication, a mass vaccination campaign (>95% coverage) targeting small ruminant populations aged >4 months is advocated, aiming to achieve the desired herd immunity of >80%. This study offers crucial insights into PPR baseline seroprevalence/immunity status and vaccine efficacy, guiding national strategies towards a PPR-free India and further supporting the global eradication initiative.

Modelling flock heterogeneity in the transmission of peste des petits ruminants virus and its impact on the effectiveness of vaccination for eradication

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an acute infectious disease of small ruminants targeted for global eradication by 2030. The Global Strategy for Control and Eradication (GSCE) recommends mass vaccination targeting 70% coverage of small ruminant populations in PPR-endemic regions. These small ruminant populations are diverse with heterogeneous mixing patterns that may influence PPR virus (PPRV) transmission dynamics. This paper evaluates the impact of heterogeneous mixing on (i) PPRV transmission and (ii) the likelihood of different vaccination strategies achieving PPRV elimination, including the GSCE recommended strategy. We develop models simulating heterogeneous transmission between hosts, including a metapopulation model of PPRV transmission between villages in lowland Ethiopia fitted to serological data. Our results demonstrate that although heterogeneous mixing of small ruminant populations increases the instability of PPRV transmission-increasing the chance of fadeout in the absence of intervention-a vaccination coverage of 70% may be insufficient to achieve elimination if high-risk populations are not targeted. Transmission may persist despite very high vaccination coverage (>90% small ruminants) if vaccination is biased towards more accessible but lower-risk populations such as sedentary small ruminant flocks. These results highlight the importance of characterizing small ruminant mobility patterns and identifying high-risk populations for vaccination and support a move towards targeted, risk-based vaccination programmes in the next phase of the PPRV eradication programme. Our modelling approach also illustrates a general framework for incorporating heterogeneous mixing patterns into models of directly transmitted infectious diseases where detailed contact data are limited. This study improves understanding of PPRV transmission and elimination in heterogeneous small ruminant populations and should be used to inform and optimize the design of PPRV vaccination programmes.

Seroprevalence and risk factors of Peste des petits ruminants in different production systems in Uganda

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious and fatal disease of mostly domestic goats and sheep. First reported in Uganda in 2007, the extent of peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) exposure, geographical distribution and risk factors of its transmission and spread are not clearly understood. In this study, we used cluster random sampling methodology to select study villages from three districts representing three different production systems along Uganda's "cattle corridor". Between October and December 2022, 2520 goat and sheep serum samples were collected from 252 households with no history of PPR vaccination in the past one year. The household heads were interviewed to assess possible risk factors of PPRV transmission using a structured questionnaire. The serum samples were screened with a commercial competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (cELISA) for PPRV antibodies. The determined overall true seroprevalence of PPRV was 27.3% [95% CI: 25.4-29.1]. The seroprevalence of PPRV antibodies in different production systems was 44.1% [95% CI: 40.6-47.7], 31.7% [95% CI: 28.4-35.0] and 6.1% [95% CI: 4.4-7.9] for pastoral, agropastoral and mixed crop-livestock production systems respectively. A mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression model revealed strong statistical evidence of association between female animals and PPRV antibody seropositivity compared to males [OR= 2.45, 95% CI: 1.7-3.5, p < 0.001]. The likelihood of being PPRV antibody seropositive significantly increased with increasing small ruminant age. Animals older than 3 years were more than three times as likely to be PPRV seropositive compared to animals aged under 1 year [OR= 3.41, 95% CI: 2.39-4.85, p < 0.001]. There was no statistical evidence of association between small ruminant species and PPRV antibody seropositivity (p = 0.423). Village flocks that interacted with neighboring flocks daily during grazing (IRR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.19-2.13) and watering around swamps (IRR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.19-2.13) were highly correlated with increased number of PPRV seropositive animals as compared to flocks that were more restricted in grazing and watered around other water sources other than swamps. Flocks from pastoral and agropastoral production systems were more than 10 times more likely to have seropositive animals than mixed crop-livestock flocks. Targeting PPR control interventions (vaccination and livestock movement control) to pastoral and agro-pastoral small ruminant production systems that are very prone to PPR incursions is recommended to prevent PPRV spread to low-risk smallholder mixed crop-livestock production systems.

Modeling for Smart Vaccination against Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a contagious and economically important transboundary viral disease of small ruminants. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) national animal health plan aimed to control and eradicate PPR from the country by following the global PPR control and eradication strategy which adopts small ruminants' mass vaccination to eradicate the disease from the globe by 2030. A smart vaccination approach, which is less expensive and has longer-term sustainable benefits, is needed to accelerate the eradication of PPR. In this study, a mathematical algorithm was developed based on animals' identification and registration data, belonging to the Abu Dhabi Agriculture and Food Safety Authority (ADAFSA), and other different parameters related to PPR risk occurrence. The latter included animal holding vaccination history, the number of animals per holding, forecasting of the number of animals and newborns per holding, the proximity of an animal holding to a PPR outbreak and the historical animal holding owner vaccination rejection attitude. The developed algorithm successfully prioritized animal holdings at risk of PPR infection within Abu Dhabi Emirate to be targeted by vaccination. This in turn facilitated the mobilization of field vaccination teams to target specific sheep and goat holdings to ensure the generation of immunity against the disease on a risk-based approach. The vaccination coverage of the targeted livestock population was increased to 86% and the vaccination rejection attitude was reduced by 35%. The duration of the vaccination campaign was reduced to 30 compared to 70 working days and hence can alleviate the depletion of human and logistic resources commonly used in classical mass vaccination campaigns. The results obtained from implementing the algorithm-based PPR vaccination campaign will reduce the negative impact of PPR on the UAE livestock sector and accelerate the achievement of the national PPR eradication plan requirements.

Bayesian inference in epidemics: linear noise analysis

This paper offers a qualitative insight into the convergence of Bayesian parameter inference in a setup which mimics the modeling of the spread of a disease with associated disease measurements. Specifically, we are interested in the Bayesian model's convergence with increasing amounts of data under measurement limitations. Depending on how weakly informative the disease measurements are, we offer a kind of 'best case' as well as a 'worst case' analysis where, in the former case, we assume that the prevalence is directly accessible, while in the latter that only a binary signal corresponding to a prevalence detection threshold is available. Both cases are studied under an assumed so-called linear noise approximation as to the true dynamics. Numerical experiments test the sharpness of our results when confronted with more realistic situations for which analytical results are unavailable.

Assessment of post-vaccination immune response to peste des petits ruminants virus in small ruminants in the central and western regions of India

The cross-sectional serosurvey for post-vaccination assessment of peste des petits ruminants (PPR) virus (PPRV) antibodies in sheep and goats was carried out in different states in the central and western regions of India after the implementation of vaccination under the PPR control programme. The serum samples (n = 4687) were collected from sheep (n = 1539) and goats (n = 3148) from August 2017 to March 2018 at various epidemiological units (n = 301) of the studied regions using a stratified random sampling method and PPR competitive ELISA kit was employed to detect PPRV antibodies. The results revealed 34, 21, 52, 74, 68, and 65% of prevalence of PPRV antibodies in small ruminants in Madhya Pradesh, Goa, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Rajasthan states, respectively, with a difference in seropositivity in sheep and goats across the states in sheep (p < 0.01) and goats (p < 0.01). Further, this serosurvey revealed that 60% of the epi-units (n = 185) had > 50% prevalence of post vaccination PPRV antibodies across states due to variations in vaccination rates and patterns. The vaccination coverage and the reported outbreaks varied between the states in the studied regions. Due to continuous vaccination under the control program, the reported PPR outbreaks have progressively declined in most of the studied states, and the PPR risk areas are confined to a few districts and sporadically, outbreaks are reported indicating the effectiveness of vaccination. These findings provide valuable information on potential PPRV episystems, and will assist with activities regarding intensive surveillance, vaccination, biosecurity, and modification of policy decisions towards designing and implementing control and eradication measures. Further, the present situation necessitates continuous mass vaccination and active surveillance programs to make these regions free from PPR in consonance with the PPR Global Control and Eradication Strategy under the PPR Global Eradication Program.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13337-022-00796-6.

Patterns of mortality in domesticated ruminants in Ethiopia

Background

Premature death of livestock is a problem in all ruminant production systems. While the number of premature ruminant deaths in a country is a reasonable indicator for the nation's health, few data sources exist in a country like Ethiopia that can be used to generate valid estimates. The present study aimed to establish if three different data sets, each with imperfect information on ruminant mortality, including abortions, could be combined into improved estimates of nationwide mortality in Ethiopia.

Methods

We combined information from a recent survey of ruminant mortality with information from the Living Standards Measurement Study and the Disease Outbreak and Vaccination Reporting dataset. Generalized linear mixed and hurdle models were used for data analysis, with results summarized using predicted outcomes.

Results

Analyses indicated that most herds experienced zero mortality and reproductive losses, with rare occasions of larger losses. Diseases causing deaths varied greatly both geographically and over time. There was little agreement between the different datasets. While the models aid the understanding of patterns of mortality and reproductive losses, the degree of variation observed limited the predictive scope.

Conclusions

The models revealed some insight into why mortality rates are variable over time and are therefore less useful in measuring production or health status, and it is suggested that alternative measures of productivity, such as number of offspring raised to 1 year old per dam, would be more stable over time and likely more indicative.

Urbanization and Habitat Characteristics Associated with the Occurrence of Peste des Petits Ruminants in Africa

As a highly contagious viral disease, peste des petits ruminants (PPR) can cause severe socio-economic impacts in developing countries due to its threat to sheep and goat production. Previous studies have identified several risk factors for PPR at the individual or herd level. However, only a few studies explored the impacts of landscape factors on PPR risk, particularly at a regional scale. Moreover, risk factor analyses in Africa usually focused on sub-Saharan Africa while neglecting northern Africa. Based on regional occurrence data during 2006–2018, we here explored and compared the risk factors, with a focus on factors related to ruminant habitats, for the occurrence of PPR in sub-Saharan and northern Africa. Our results demonstrated different risk factors in the two regions. Specifically, habitat fragmentation was negatively correlated with PPR occurrence in sub-Saharan Africa, while positively correlated with PPR occurrence in northern Africa. Moreover, urbanization showed a positive association with PPR occurrence in sub-Saharan Africa. Our study is among the first, to our knowledge, to compare the risk factors for PPR in sub-Saharan and northern Africa and contributes to a better understanding of the effects of habitat characteristics on PPR occurrence at a regional scale.

Isolation and Molecular Characterization of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus from Outbreaks in Southern Ethiopia, 2020

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is one of the most important transboundary diseases of small ruminants. In this study, nasal and oral swabs (n = 24) were collected from sheep (n = 7) and goats (n = 17) with clinical signs in southern Ethiopia in March 2020. PPR virus was isolated on Vero dog cells expressing the signaling lymphocyte activation molecule (VDS) and screened using RT-qPCR. Positive samples were confirmed by conventional RT-PCR followed by sequencing of a partial nucleoprotein (N) gene segment. Results revealed that 54% (n = 13/24) of the tested samples were PPRV-positive Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the viruses belonged to lineage IV and lineage II. The lineage IV viruses were similar, although not identical, to other lineage IV viruses previously reported in Ethiopia and other East African countries while the lineage II viruses have been reported for the first time in Ethiopia showed a high nucleotide identity (99.06%) with the vaccine (Nigeria 75/1) that is currently used in Ethiopia for the prevention of PPR. Further investigations are therefore recommended in order to fully understand the true nature of the lineage II PPRVs in Ethiopia.

Spatio-temporal cluster analysis and transmission drivers for Peste des Petits Ruminants in Uganda

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is a transboundary, highly contagious, and fatal disease of small ruminants. PPR causes global annual economic losses of between USD 1.5-2.0 billion across more than 70 affected countries. Despite the commercial availability of effective PPR vaccines, lack of financial and technical commitment to PPR control coupled with a dearth of refined PPR risk profiling data in different endemic countries has perpetuated PPR virus transmission. In Uganda, over the past five years, PPR has extended from north-eastern Uganda (Karamoja) with sporadic incursions in other districts /regions. To identify disease cluster hotspot trends that would facilitate the design and implementation of PPR risk-based control methods (including vaccination), we employed the space-time cube approach to identify trends in the clustering of outbreaks in neighbouring space-time cells using confirmed PPR outbreak report data (2007-2020). We also used negative binomial and logistic regression models and identified high small ruminant density, extended road length, low annual precipitation and high soil water index as the most important drivers of PPR in Uganda. The study identified (with 90 - 99% confidence) five PPR disease hotspot trend categories across subregions of Uganda. Diminishing hotspots were identified in the Karamoja region whereas consecutive, sporadic, new, and emerging hotspots were identified in central and southwestern districts of Uganda. Inter-district and cross-border small ruminant movement facilitated by longer road stretches and animal comingling precipitate PPR outbreaks as well as PPR virus spread from its initial Karamoja focus to the central and south-western Uganda. There is therefore urgent need to prioritize considerable vaccination coverage to obtain the required herd immunity among small ruminants in the new hotspot areas to block transmission to further emerging hotspots. Findings of this study provide a basis for more robust timing and prioritization of control measures including vaccination. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Use of Slaughterhouses as Sentinel Points for Genomic Surveillance of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Southern Vietnam

The genetic diversity of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) poses a challenge to the successful control of the disease, and it is important to identify the emergence of different strains in endemic settings. The objective of this study was to evaluate the sampling of clinically healthy livestock at slaughterhouses as a strategy for genomic FMDV surveillance. Serum samples (n = 11,875) and oropharyngeal fluid (OPF) samples (n = 5045) were collected from clinically healthy cattle and buffalo on farms in eight provinces in southern and northern Vietnam (2015-2019) to characterize viral diversity. Outbreak sequences were collected between 2009 and 2019. In two slaughterhouses in southern Vietnam, 1200 serum and OPF samples were collected from clinically healthy cattle and buffalo (2017 to 2019) as a pilot study on the use of slaughterhouses as sentinel points in surveillance. FMDV VP1 sequences were analyzed using discriminant principal component analysis and time-scaled phylodynamic trees. Six of seven serotype-O and -A clusters circulating in southern Vietnam between 2017-2019 were detected at least once in slaughterhouses, sometimes pre-dating outbreak sequences associated with the same cluster by 4-6 months. Routine sampling at slaughterhouses may provide a timely and efficient strategy for genomic surveillance to identify circulating and emerging FMDV strains.

Epidemiology and Cost of Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Eradication in Small Ruminants in the United Arab Emirates-Disease Spread and Control Strategies Simulations

Simple Summary

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), also known as sheep and goat plague, is a highly contagious animal disease affecting small ruminants and camels. It is caused by a virus belonging to the genus Morbillivirus, family Paramixoviridae. Once newly introduced, the virus can infect up to 90 percent of an animal herd. A PPR outbreak is an emergency due to its rapid spread and high animal mortality rate. This study simulated three control strategies of PPR spread among animals in the United Arab Emirates. These strategies include implementing mass vaccination, ring vaccination and ceased vaccination strategies, combined with or without strict animal movement control simultaneously. The simulation results compared the level of the effectiveness and direct government costs for each of the three strategies. Such results aid the decision-makers in the country and globally in line with the World Animal Health Organization’s goal to eradicate the disease by 2030.

Abstract

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an important infectious viral disease of domestic small ruminants that threatens the food security and sustainable livelihood of farmers across Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The objective of this research is to analyze the disease’s spread and its impacts on direct government costs through conducting three simulations of different control strategies to reduce and quickly eradicate PPR from the United Arab Emirates in the near future. A Modified Animal Disease Spread Model was developed in this study to suit the conditions of the United Arab Emirates. The initial scenario represents when mass vaccination is ceased, and moderate movement restrictions are applied. The second scenario is based on mass vaccination and stamping out the disease, whereas the third simulation scenario assumes mass and ring vaccination when needed, very strict movement control, and stamping out. This study found that the third scenario is the most effective in controlling and eradicating PPR from the UAE. The outbreak duration in days was reduced by 57% and the number of infected animals by 77% when compared to the other scenarios. These results are valuable to the country’s animal health decision-makers and the government’s efforts to report to the World Animal Health Organization (OIE) regarding the progress made towards declaration of the disease’s eradication. They are also useful to other concerned entities in other Middle Eastern, North African, and Asian countries where the disease is spreading.

Impact of Peste des petits ruminants for sub-Saharan African farmers: A bioeconomic household production model

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), a contagious viral disease affecting small ruminants, has been targeted by the global community for eradication within the next 10 years. However, eradication will require substantial money, human resources, coordination among actors, and individual commitments. The objective was to estimate the cost of PPR at a household level, thereby providing information on the potential economic benefits of PPR eradication and the incentives for small ruminant keepers to actively participate in the PPR Global Eradication Programme. This study focused on four sub-Saharan countries: Ethiopia, Malawi, Mali and Rwanda. Publicly available household level data assembled by FAO were used. A bioeconomic model was built to estimate impacts of PPR for a standardized theoretical area, where each household raised an average small ruminant herd or flock. Model outputs were used to estimate, at a household level, income loss due to a PPR outbreak. We constructed various income scenarios to account for the variability of small ruminant income as a proportion of total household annual income. Household income losses ranged from 2% to 40% of total annual income; percentages varied depending on the income scenario and on the gross annual economic impact of PPR on small ruminant production, which ranged from 20% to 80%, based on results of the bioeconomic model. As expected, the more small ruminant production contributed to household income the greater the impact. Estimates provided herein warn decision makers that, given the heterogeneous impact of PPR on household income, the willingness of small ruminant decision makers to participate in the PPR Global Eradication Programme may vary widely and tailored approaches should be devised and implemented.

Transboundary Animal Diseases, an Overview of 17 Diseases with Potential for Global Spread and Serious Consequences

Animals provide food and other critical resources to most of the global population. As such, diseases of animals can cause dire consequences, especially disease with high rates of morbidity or mortality. Transboundary animal diseases (TADs) are highly contagious or transmissible, epidemic diseases, with the potential to spread rapidly across the globe and the potential to cause substantial socioeconomic and public health consequences. Transboundary animal diseases can threaten the global food supply, reduce the availability of non-food animal products, or cause the loss of human productivity or life. Further, TADs result in socioeconomic consequences from costs of control or preventative measures, and from trade restrictions. A greater understanding of the transmission, spread, and pathogenesis of these diseases is required. Further work is also needed to improve the efficacy and cost of both diagnostics and vaccines. This review aims to give a broad overview of 17 TADs, providing researchers and veterinarians with a current, succinct resource of salient details regarding these significant diseases. For each disease, we provide a synopsis of the disease and its status, species and geographic areas affected, a summary of in vitro or in vivo research models, and when available, information regarding prevention or treatment.

Assessment of the control measures of the category A diseases of Animal Health Law: peste des petits ruminants

EFSA received a mandate from the European Commission to assess the effectiveness of some of the control measures against diseases included in the Category A list according to Regulation (EU) 2016/429 on transmissible animal diseases ('Animal Health Law'). This opinion belongs to a series of opinions where these control measures will be assessed, with this opinion covering the assessment of control measures for peste des petits ruminants (PPR). In this opinion, EFSA and the AHAW Panel of experts review the effectiveness of: (i) clinical and laboratory sampling procedures, (ii) monitoring period and (iii) the minimum radii of the protection and surveillance zones, and the minimum length of time the measures should be applied in these zones. The general methodology used for this series of opinions has been published elsewhere; nonetheless, the transmission kernels used for the assessment of the minimum radii of the protection and surveillance zones are shown. Several scenarios for which these control measures had to be assessed were designed and agreed prior to the start of the assessment. The monitoring period of 21 days was assessed as effective, except for the first affected establishments detected, where 33 days is recommended. It was concluded that beyond the protection (3 km) and the surveillance zones (10 km) only 9.6% (95% CI: 3.1-25.8%) and 2.3% (95% CI: 1-5.5%) of the infections from an affected establishment may occur, respectively. This may be considered sufficient to contain the disease spread (95% probability of containing transmission corresponds to 5.3 km). Recommendations provided for each of the scenarios assessed aim to support the European Commission in the drafting of further pieces of legislation, as well as for plausible ad-hoc requests in relation to PPR.

Development of a transboundary model of livestock disease in Europe

Epidemiological models of notifiable livestock disease are typically framed at a national level and targeted for specific diseases. There are inherent difficulties in extending models beyond national borders as details of the livestock population, production systems and marketing systems of neighbouring countries are not always readily available. It can also be a challenge to capture heterogeneities in production systems, control policies, and response resourcing across multiple countries, in a single transboundary model.

In this paper, we describe EuFMDiS, a continental‐scale modelling framework for transboundary animal disease, specifically designed to support emergency animal disease planning in Europe. EuFMDiS simulates the spread of livestock disease within and between countries and allows control policies to be enacted and resourced on a per‐country basis. It provides a sophisticated decision support tool that can be used to look at the risk of disease introduction, establishment and spread; control approaches in terms of effectiveness and costs; resource management; and post‐outbreak management issues.

Towards eradication of peste des petits ruminants: post-vaccination evaluation in sheep and goats in Southern Peninsular India

The cross-sectional seroprevalence study of the peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in sheep and goats was carried out in the Southern Peninsular region of India to ascertain the prevalence of PPR virus (PPRV) antibodies at the epidemiological units (epi-units) level in the small ruminant population. The serum samples were collected from various epi-units (villages) in the different states and union territory (UT) in Southern Peninsular region using a stratified random sampling methodology from August 2017 to March 2018. A total of 6643 serum samples [sheep (n = 2785) and goats (n = 3858)] were collected from 360 epi-units and were screened by PPR competitive ELISA kit for the detection of PPRV antibodies. The results revealed that the seroprevalence of PPR in small ruminants in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala states, and Puducherry UT was 87.0%, 66.4%, 64.3%, 47.8%, 11.4%, and 50.4%, respectively in the studied region. Further, the results of the chi-squared test revealed that the PPRV antibodies across different states and UT in the region were associated (sheep-χ² = 218.8, p < 0.01; goats-χ² = 827.1, p < 0.01), as all the states and UT adopted the PPR vaccination programme. The study also implies that the small ruminants in some of the epi-units (n = 102) had < 30% seroprevalence, which necessitates comprehensive intensive vaccination and active surveillance programmes to make this region as PPR free zone.

Peste des petits ruminants Virus Transmission Scaling and Husbandry Practices That Contribute to Increased Transmission Risk: An Investigation among Sheep, Goats, and Cattle in Northern Tanzania

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes an infectious disease of high morbidity and mortality among sheep and goats which impacts millions of livestock keepers globally. PPRV transmission risk varies by production system, but a deeper understanding of how transmission scales in these systems and which husbandry practices impact risk is needed. To investigate transmission scaling and husbandry practice-associated risk, this study combined 395 household questionnaires with over 7115 cross-sectional serosurvey samples collected in Tanzania among agropastoral and pastoral households managing sheep, goats, or cattle (most managed all three, n = 284, 71.9%). Although self-reported compound-level herd size was significantly larger in pastoral than agropastoral households, the data show no evidence that household herd force of infection (FOI, per capita infection rate of susceptible hosts) increased with herd size. Seroprevalence and FOI patterns observed at the sub-village level showed significant spatial variation in FOI. Univariate analyses showed that household herd FOI was significantly higher when households reported seasonal grazing camp attendance, cattle or goat introduction to the compound, death, sale, or giving away of animals in the past 12 months, when cattle were grazed separately from sheep and goats, and when the household also managed dogs or donkeys. Multivariable analyses revealed that species, production system type, and goat or sheep introduction or seasonal grazing camp attendance, cattle or goat death or sales, or goats given away in the past 12 months significantly increased odds of seroconversion, whereas managing pigs or cattle attending seasonal grazing camps had significantly lower odds of seroconversion. Further research should investigate specific husbandry practices across production systems in other countries and in systems that include additional atypical host species to broaden understanding of PPRV transmission.

Seroprevalence study of peste des petits ruminants in sheep and goats in the northern region of India

Background and Aim:

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a contagious, World Organization for Animal Health notifiable, economically important, transboundary morbilliviral disease of sheep and goats. Studying seroprevalence of PPR from different geographical areas under varying agro-climatic conditions may help in formulating effective and appropriate disease control strategies under the ongoing national PPR control program. The present cross-sectional study describes the prevalence of PPR virus antibodies in sheep and goats in the various epidemiological units in different states (Haryana, Himachal Pradesh [HP], Jammu and Kashmir [J&K], Punjab, Uttarakhand [UK], and Uttar Pradesh [UP]) of the northern region of India.

Materials and Methods:

A total of 5843 serum samples (sheep [n=2463] and goats [n=3380]) were collected by stratified random sampling method from 322 epidemiological units in the studied region during 2017-2018 and tested for PPR virus (PPRV) antibodies by competitive ELISA.

Results:

The results revealed that an overall seroprevalence of 44.05% (2574/5843) with 57.32%, 55.22%, 65.69%, 37.09%, 32.73%, and 29.35% prevalence of PPRV antibodies in small ruminants in Haryana, Punjab, UP, HP, J&K, and UK states, respectively. Further, Chi-squared test revealed an association of PPRV antibodies in goats (χ²=252.28, p<0.01) and sheep (χ²=192.12, p<0.01) across different states in the region.

Conclusion:

The seroprevalence in majority of the epidemiological units (n=130) in sheep and goats in the studied region had <30%. This necessitates comprehensive, rigorous, continuous vaccination and active surveillance programs for few more years to achieve the desired 70% seroprevalence level of PPRV antibodies in population and to make the northern region of India, as PPR free zone.

Bayesian epidemiological modeling over high-resolution network data

Mathematical epidemiological models have a broad use, including both qualitative and quantitative applications. With the increasing availability of data, large-scale quantitative disease spread models can nowadays be formulated. Such models have a great potential, e.g., in risk assessments in public health. Their main challenge is model parameterization given surveillance data, a problem which often limits their practical usage. We offer a solution to this problem by developing a Bayesian methodology suitable to epidemiological models driven by network data. The greatest difficulty in obtaining a concentrated parameter posterior is the quality of surveillance data; disease measurements are often scarce and carry little information about the parameters. The often overlooked problem of the model's identifiability therefore needs to be addressed, and we do so using a hierarchy of increasingly realistic known truth experiments. Our proposed Bayesian approach performs convincingly across all our synthetic tests. From pathogen measurements of shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 in Swedish cattle, we are able to produce an accurate statistical model of first-principles confronted with data. Within this model we explore the potential of a Bayesian public health framework by assessing the efficiency of disease detection and -intervention scenarios.

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in Africa and Asia: A systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence in sheep and goats between 1969 and 2018

BACKGROUND

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a prevalent viral disease of sheep and goats that impacts productivity and international animal trade. Despite the substantial economic consequences related to PPR, little is known about the prevalence of this disease at the broad geographical levels.

OBJECTIVE

The present study aimed to use a systematic approach to assess the regional prevalence of PPR in sheep and goats, and the associated factors that contribute to prevalence estimates.

METHODS

Published articles on PPR in sheep and goats were searched in PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar and the reference lists of articles reporting the prevalence from 1 January 1969 to 31 December 2018. Articles were selected using inclusion and exclusion criteria. Since the heterogeneity among the studies was significant, pooled prevalences were estimated by a random effect meta-analysis model.

RESULTS

Data on the prevalence of PPR were obtained from Africa and Asia, where the pooled prevalence estimates were 40.99% (95% CI: 37.20%-44.79%) and 38.43% (95% CI: 35.64%-41.22%) respectively. Overall, the estimated pooled prevalence at Africa-Asia level in sheep was 39.31% (95% CI: 35.75%-42.88%) and in goats was 39.57% (95% CI: 36.66%-42.48%). Significant heterogeneity (I²  > 80%) was noted in most pooled estimates.

CONCLUSION

The results on the regional prevalence estimates of PPR presented here will be useful in raising awareness and advocating for Governments to engage in initiatives to eradicate PPR and prevent it from spreading to other continents.

Mapping livestock movements in Sahelian Africa

In the dominant livestock systems of Sahelian countries herds have to move across territories. Their mobility is often a source of conflict with farmers in the areas crossed, and helps spread diseases such as Rift Valley Fever. Knowledge of the routes followed by herds is therefore core to guiding the implementation of preventive and control measures for transboundary animal diseases, land use planning and conflict management. However, the lack of quantitative data on livestock movements, together with the high temporal and spatial variability of herd movements, has so far hampered the production of fine resolution maps of animal movements. This paper proposes a general framework for mapping potential paths for livestock movements and identifying areas of high animal passage potential for those movements. The method consists in combining the information contained in livestock mobility networks with landscape connectivity, based on different mobility conductance layers. We illustrate our approach with a livestock mobility network in Senegal and Mauritania in the 2014 dry and wet seasons.

Seroprevalence of peste des petits ruminants in sheep and goats in Eastern India

The seroprevalence study of peste des petits ruminants (PPR) in small ruminants in Bihar and Odisha states in the Eastern region of India was carried out. A total of 1836 serum samples were collected from sheep (n = 648) and goats (n = 1188) from various epidemiological units (n = 112) in these states by a two-stage sampling plan during April 2017-March 2018. These samples were tested for the detection of virus antibodies by PPR competitive ELISA kit. The results revealed that the seroprevalence of PPR in sheep and goats in Bihar and Odisha states was 30.91% and 54.20%, respectively. Further, the chi-square analysis showed that the association exists between the presence of PPR virus antibodies in the goats (χ² = 93.28, p < 0.01) and between the states (χ² = 82.61, p < 0.01). This cross-sectional serosurvey also infers that the sheep and goats in most of the epi-units (n = 87) had < 70% of PPR virus antibodies prevalence. This warrants the intensive continuous mass vaccination program for a few more years to achieve the desired level of population immunity (epidemiological units protection level) and active surveillance to make these states free from PPR in the Eastern region of India.

Identifying Age Cohorts Responsible for Peste Des Petits Ruminants Virus Transmission among Sheep, Goats, and Cattle in Northern Tanzania

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a contagious disease of high morbidity and mortality in global sheep and goat populations. To better control this disease and inform eradication strategies, an improved understanding of how PPRV transmission risk varies by age is needed. Our study used a piece-wise catalytic model to estimate the age-specific force of infection (FOI, per capita infection rate of susceptible hosts) among sheep, goats, and cattle from a cross-sectional serosurvey dataset collected in 2016 in Tanzania. Apparent seroprevalence increased with age, reaching 53.6%, 46.8%, and 11.6% (true seroprevalence: 52.7%, 52.8%, 39.2%) for sheep, goats, and cattle, respectively. Seroprevalence was significantly higher among pastoral animals than agropastoral animals across all ages, with pastoral sheep and goat seroprevalence approaching 70% and 80%, respectively, suggesting pastoral endemicity. The best fitting piece-wise catalytic models merged age groups: two for sheep, three for goats, and four for cattle. The signal of these age heterogeneities were weak, except for a significant FOI peak among 2.5-3.5-year-old pastoral cattle. The subtle age-specific heterogeneities identified in this study suggest that targeting control efforts by age may not be as effective as targeting by other risk factors, such as production system type. Further research should investigate how specific husbandry practices affect PPRV transmission.

Spatial Multicriteria Evaluation for Mapping the Risk of Occurrence of Peste des Petits Ruminants in Eastern Africa and the Union of the Comoros

Peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV), responsible for peste des petits ruminants (PPR), is widely circulating in Africa and Asia. The disease is a huge burden for the economy and development of the affected countries. In Eastern Africa, the disease is considered endemic. Because of the geographic proximity and existing trade between eastern African countries and the Comoros archipelago, the latter is at risk of introduction and spread, and the first PPR outbreaks occurred in the Union of the Comoros in 2012. The objective of this study was to map the areas suitable for PPR occurrence and spread in the Union of the Comoros and four eastern African countries, namely Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania. A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based Multicriteria Evaluation (MCE) was developed. Risk factors for PPR occurrence and spread, and their relative importance, were identified using literature review and expert-based knowledge. Corresponding geographic data were collected, standardized, and combined based on a weighted linear combination to obtain PPR suitability maps. The accuracy of the maps was assessed using outbreak data from the EMPRES database and a ROC curve analysis. Our model showed an excellent ability to distinguish between absence and presence of outbreaks in Eastern Africa (AUC = 0.907; 95% CI [0.820-0.994]), and a very good performance in the Union of the Comoros (AUC = 0.889, 95% CI: [0.694-1]). These results highlight the efficiency of the GIS-MCE method, which can be applied at different geographic scales: continental, national and local. The resulting maps provide decision support tools for implementation of disease surveillance and control measures, thus contributing to the PPR eradication goal of OIE and FAO by 2030.

Camelids and Cattle Are Dead-End Hosts for Peste-des-Petits-Ruminants Virus

Peste-des-petits-ruminants virus (PPRV) causes a severe respiratory disease in small ruminants. The possible impact of different atypical host species in the spread and planed worldwide eradication of PPRV remains to be clarified. Recent transmission trials with the virulent PPRV lineage IV (LIV)-strain Kurdistan/2011 revealed that pigs and wild boar are possible sources of PPRV-infection. We therefore investigated the role of cattle, llamas, alpacas, and dromedary camels in transmission trials using the Kurdistan/2011 strain for intranasal infection and integrated a literature review for a proper evaluation of their host traits and role in PPRV-transmission. Cattle and camelids developed no clinical signs, no viremia, shed no or only low PPRV-RNA loads in swab samples and did not transmit any PPRV to the contact animals. The distribution of PPRV-RNA or antigen in lymphoid organs was similar in cattle and camelids although generally lower compared to suids and small ruminants. In the typical small ruminant hosts, the tissue tropism, pathogenesis and disease expression after PPRV-infection is associated with infection of immune and epithelial cells via SLAM and nectin-4 receptors, respectively. We therefore suggest a different pathogenesis in cattle and camelids and both as dead-end hosts for PPRV.

Estimation of the within-herd transmission rates of bovine viral diarrhoea virus in extensively grazed beef cattle herds

Many research groups have developed mathematical models to simulate the dynamics of BVDV infections in cattle herds. However, most models use estimates for within-herd BVDV transmission rates that are either based on expert opinion or adapted from other dairy herd simulation models presented in the literature. There is currently little information on the transmission rates for BVDV in extensively grazed beef herds partly due to the logistical challenges in obtaining longitudinal data of individual animal’s seroconversion, and it may not be appropriate to apply the same transmission rates from intensive dairy herds given the significant differences in herd demographics and management. To address this knowledge gap, we measured BVDV antibody levels in 15 replacement heifers in each of 75 New Zealand beef breeding farms after their first calving and again at pregnancy scanning or weaning to check for seroconversion. Among these, data from 9 farms were used to infer the within-herd BVDV transmission rate with an approximate Bayesian computation method. The most probable within-herd BVDV transmission rate was estimated as 0.11 per persistently infected (PI) animal per day with a 95% highest posterior density interval between 0.03 and 0.34. This suggests that BVDV transmission in extensively grazed beef herds is generally slower than in dairy herds where the transmission rate has been estimated at 0.50 per PI animal per day and therefore may not be sufficient to ensure that all susceptible breeding females gain adequate immunity to the virus before the risk period of early pregnancy for generating new PI calves.

Post-vaccination herd immunity against peste des petits ruminants and inter-vaccination population turnover in small ruminant flocks in northwest Ethiopia

Vaccination is the main tool for control of peste des petits ruminants (PPR) because of the availability of effective and safe vaccines that provide long lasting protection. However vaccination campaigns may not always provide sufficient herd immunity needed to prevent disease outbreaks because of logistic problems with vaccination such as inappropriate cold chain and vaccine delivery methods, and the rapid population turnover of small ruminants. This study was carried out to assess post-vaccination herd immunity against PPR and inter-vaccination population turnover in small ruminant flocks in Metema district, northwest Ethiopia where frequent PPR outbreaks occur despite regular vaccination. A total of 412 serum samples were collected from selected small ruminants in 72 flocks (average flock size of 33.4 and standard deviation of 30) above three months of age in three kebeles immediately before a vaccination program. One month after the vaccination using freeze dried live attenuated vaccine, 359 serum samples were collected from randomly selected small ruminants in the same flocks. The collected serum samples were analyzed to determine the seropositivity using a monoclonal antibody-based C-ELISA. The pre-vaccination seropositivity of 72.3% (95% CI: 67.8-76.4) increased to 93.9% (95% CI: 90.9-95.9) post-vaccination (P < 0.001). The observed seropositivity following vaccination was above the recommended herd immunity threshold (80%) required to reduce the transmission of infection in the population sufficient to eliminate virus. A survey of sampled flocks six months post-sampling indicated only 68% of animals were still present in these flocks. This population turnover reduces the herd immunity to about 64% which is below the required threshold for control. The high level of herd immunity achieved post-vaccination indicates good vaccine quality, cold chain maintenance and effective vaccine delivery in the district's vaccination campaigns. The decrease in herd immunity associated with population turnover and annual vaccination intervals represents a challenge to effective control and suggests changes to the timing or frequency of the vaccination is required.

Toward peste des petits virus (PPRV) eradication: Diagnostic approaches, novel vaccines, and control strategies

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is an acute transboundary infectious viral disease affecting domestic and wild small ruminants' species besides camels reared in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The virus is a serious paramount challenge to the sustainable agriculture advancement in the developing world. The disease outbreak was also detected for the first time in the European Union namely in Bulgaria at 2018. Therefore, the disease has lately been aimed for eradication with the purpose of worldwide clearance by 2030. Radically, the vaccines needed for effectively accomplishing this aim are presently convenient; however, the availableness of innovative modern vaccines to fulfill the desideratum for Differentiating between Infected and Vaccinated Animals (DIVA) may mitigate time spent and financial disbursement of serological monitoring and surveillance in the advanced levels for any disease obliteration campaign. We here highlight what is at the present time well-known about the virus and the different available diagnostic tools. Further, we interject on current updates and insights on several novel vaccines and on the possible current and prospective strategies to be applied for disease control.

Strategies for the Global Eradication of Peste des Petits Ruminants: An Argument for the Use of Guerrilla Rather Than Trench Warfare

Many historical disease eradication campaigns have been characterized by large-scale mobilization and long-term campaigns of mass vaccination. As the duration of a program increases, the total cost also increases, but the effectiveness and sustainability decrease, sometimes resulting in premature loss of stakeholder support, field team fatigue, and failure or major set-backs. In contrast to this trench warfare approach, this paper proposes an eradication strategy modeled on guerrilla tactics: use exceptionally good, locally relevant and timely intelligence; strike rapidly and effectively in small areas; achieve your goals; and keep moving. For peste des petits ruminants eradication, this means a shift away from long-term mass vaccination, focusing instead on addressing some of the challenges that have plagued previous eradication programs: ineffective surveillance and movement management. Recent developments in surveillance have shown that it is now feasible to capture information about almost all cases of disease, all movements and all control activities, from the entire population in real time. Developing powerful, effective and sustainable surveillance systems is an essential prerequisite for rapid, affordable PPR eradication. PPR can be rapidly eliminated from small populations by achieving very high levels of vaccination coverage for only a short period. The key challenge is then to prevent the re-introduction of disease as immunity wanes, and to respond rapidly and effectively in the case of further local outbreaks. A comprehensive understanding of movement patterns and their drivers will allow rapid progressive eradication to be implemented. The population can be divided into manageably small units, targeted sequentially for high-coverage short-duration vaccination, then moving to the next unit based on the distribution of disease and the direction of animal flow. This approach optimizes the use of available resources, and minimizes the challenge and disruption of managing retrograde movement from infected to uninfected areas. High levels of community engagement are required to achieve the quality of surveillance, movement management and rapid response necessary for success. Traditionally, long-term vaccination has been used to first eliminate the virus from a population, and then to protect it against re-introduction of the disease. Under the guerrilla strategy, continuous real-time information, not long-term vaccination, is the main tool for disease eradication.

Epidemiological Survey of Peste des Petits Ruminants in Ethiopia: Cattle as Potential Sentinel for Surveillance

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious viral disease of small ruminants; it emerged in countries previously free of the disease following the eradication of rinderpest. PPR is classified by international organizations as the next priority animal disease for global eradication campaign. Assessment of the local situations is the first step in the eradication efforts. The objective of this study was to investigate and compare the seroprevalence of PPR in cattle, sheep, and goats under two livestock production systems in Ethiopia: North Shewa zone of Amhara region represents a highland sedentary life style characterized by mixed livestock-crop production system; Zone Three of Afar region represents a lowland nomadic life style characterized by pastoral livestock production system. N-competitive ELISA PPR test was performed on sera from 2,993 animals ≥6 months old sampled at watering and grazing points. Multivariable logistic regression models comparing the seropositivity between the two production systems were built by classifying doubtful results as positive, negative, or excluding them from the data. The odds ratio (OR) comparing overall PPR seroprevalence in the sedentary North Shewa Zone compared to the nomadic Zone Three ranged from 19 to 27 (P < 0.001), depending on how doubtful results were classified, which contrasts with what has been reported in the literature. This is not likely to be related solely to vaccination, since seroprevalences in cattle and small ruminants were similarly high or low in the respective zones (0-4% for Zone Three and 20-40% for North Shewa Zone), and cattle were not likely to be vaccinated. The OR of seropositivity for goats compared to cattle ranged from 1.9 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-2.7; P < 0.001] to 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5-3.1; P < 0.001) when doubtful results were excluded or classified as negative, respectively. When doubtful results were classified as positive, association between seropositivity and animal species was not significant (P > 0.05). Our results suggest to further investigate cattle as sentinel animals for PPR surveillance.

PPR Control in a Sahelian Setting: What Vaccination Strategy for Mauritania?

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is a viral disease affecting domestic and small wild ruminants. Endemic in large parts of the world, PPR causes severe damages to animal production and household economies. In 2015, FAO and OIE launched a global eradication program (GCSE) based on vaccination campaigns. The success of GCSE shall depend on the implementation of vaccination campaigns, accounting for husbandry practices, mobility and the periodicity of small ruminants' population renewal. In Mauritania, PPR outbreaks occur annually despite ongoing annual vaccination campaigns since 2008. Here, we developed a mathematical model to assess the impact of four vaccination strategies (including the GSCE one), the importance of their timing of implementation and the usefulness of individual animal identification on the reduction of PPR burden. The model was calibrated on data collected through ad-hoc surveys about demographic dynamics, disease impact, and national seroprevalence using Monte Carlo Markov Chain procedure. Numerical simulations were used to estimate the number of averted deaths over the next 12 years. The model results showed that the GSCE strategy prevented the largest number of deaths (9.2 million vs. 6.2 for random strategy) and provided one of the highest economic returns among all strategies (Benefit-Cost Ratio around 16 vs. 7 for random strategy). According to its current cost, identification would be a viable investment that could reduce the number of vaccine doses to distribute by 20–60%. Whilst the implementation of the identification system is crucial for PPR control, its success depends also on a coordinated approach at the regional level.

Seroprevalence of some Infectious transboundry diseases in cattle imported from Sudan to Egypt

OBJECTIVE

Animal trade has an important role in the economy but in contrast, it causes the spread of infectious diseases overall the world, in particular, the trans-boundary animal diseases. Therefore, the aim of this study is to report the prevalence rate of some transboundary infectious diseases to assess the effectiveness of quarantine measure in the detection of exotic disease and clarify the role of live animal trade in infectious transboundary diseases spread.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study was done on 176 serum samples obtained from cattle imported from Sudan in order to determine the prevalence of foot and mouth disease (FMD), Peste Des Petits Ruminants (PPR), and Infectious Bovine Rhinotracheitis (IBR). Three serological tests were used; Serum neutralization test for FMD, Indirect enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (i-ELISA) for PPR, and Competitive ELISA for IBR.

RESULTS

The seroprevalence of FMD in tested sera was; 77.27% in the serotype A (A-Iran), 68.18% in the serotype A (A-Africa), 93.82% in the serotype O (O-Pan Asia), and 35.227% in the serotype South African Territories-2 (SAT-2) SAT-2. While the overall seroprevalence of PPR was 49.431% and the IBR was 93.75%.

CONCLUSION

The result indicates the serious role of live animal trade as "hubs" for infectious diseases spread. Subsequently, the common control measures must be taken to avoid the spread of the diseases through the animal trade; which include screening, surveillance, precautions at borders, and vaccination.