Vulnerability of Arctic marine mammals to vessel traffic in the increasingly ice-free Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route

The geographic distribution, and the biotic and abiotic predictors of select zoonotic pathogen detections in Canadian polar bears

Increasing Arctic temperatures are facilitating the northward expansion of more southerly hosts, vectors, and pathogens, exposing naïve populations to pathogens not typical at northern latitudes. To understand such rapidly changing host-pathogen dynamics, we need sensitive and robust surveillance tools. Here, we use a novel multiplexed magnetic-capture and droplet digital PCR (ddPCR) tool to assess a sentinel Arctic species, the polar bear (Ursus maritimus; n = 68), for the presence of five zoonotic pathogens (Erysipelothrix rhusiopathiae, Francisella tularensis, Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex, Toxoplasma gondii and Trichinella spp.), and observe associations between pathogen presence and biotic and abiotic predictors. We made two novel detections: the first detection of a Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex member in Arctic wildlife and the first of E. rhusiopathiae in a polar bear. We found a prevalence of 37% for E. rhusiopathiae, 16% for F. tularensis, 29% for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex, 18% for T. gondii, and 75% for Trichinella spp. We also identify associations with bear age (Trichinella spp.), harvest season (F. tularensis and MTBC), and human settlements (E. rhusiopathiae, F. tularensis, MTBC, and Trichinella spp.). We demonstrate that monitoring a sentinel species, the polar bear, could be a powerful tool in disease surveillance and highlight the need to better characterize pathogen distributions and diversity in the Arctic.

Animal migration in the Anthropocene: threats and mitigation options

Animal migration has fascinated scientists and the public alike for centuries, yet migratory animals are facing diverse threats that could lead to their demise. The Anthropocene is characterised by the reality that humans are the dominant force on Earth, having manifold negative effects on biodiversity and ecosystem function. Considerable research focus has been given to assessing anthropogenic impacts on the numerical abundance of species/populations, whereas relatively less attention has been devoted to animal migration. However, there are clear linkages, for example, where human-driven impacts on migration behaviour can lead to population/species declines or even extinction. Here, we explore anthropogenic threats to migratory animals (in all domains - aquatic, terrestrial, and aerial) using International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Threat Taxonomy classifications. We reveal the diverse threats (e.g. human development, disease, invasive species, climate change, exploitation, pollution) that impact migratory wildlife in varied ways spanning taxa, life stages and type of impact (e.g. from direct mortality to changes in behaviour, health, and physiology). Notably, these threats often interact in complex and unpredictable ways to the detriment of wildlife, further complicating management. Fortunately, we are beginning to identify strategies for conserving and managing migratory animals in the Anthropocene. We provide a set of strategies that, if embraced, have the potential to ensure that migratory animals, and the important ecological functions sustained by migration, persist.

Joint species distribution modeling reveals a changing prey landscape for North Pacific right whales on the Bering shelf

The eastern North Pacific right whale (NPRW) is the most endangered population of whale and has been observed north of its core feeding ground in recent years with low sea ice extent. Sea ice and water temperature are important drivers for zooplankton dynamics within the whale's core feeding ground in the southeastern Bering Sea, seasonally forming stable fronts along the shelf that give rise to distinct zooplankton communities. A northward shift in NPRW distribution driven by changing distribution of prey resources could put this species at increased risk of entanglement and vessel strikes. We modeled the abundance of NPRW prey, Calanus glacialis, Neocalanus, and Thysanoessa species, using a dynamic biophysical food web model of nine zooplankton guilds in the Bering shelf zooplankton community during a period of warming (2006-2016). This model is unique among prior zooplankton studies from the region in that it includes density dependence, thereby allowing us to ask whether species interactions influence zooplankton dynamics. Modeling confirmed the importance of sea ice and ocean temperature to zooplankton dynamics in the region. Density-independent growth drove community dynamics, while dependent factors were comparatively minimal. Overall, Calanus responded to environment terms, with the strength and direction of response driven by copepodite stage. Neocalanus and Thysanoessa responses were weaker, likely due to their primary occurrence on the outer shelf. We also modeled the steady-state (equilibrium) abundance of Calanus in conditions with and without wind gusts to test whether advection of outer shelf species might disrupt the steady-state dynamics of Calanus abundance; the results did not support disruption. Given the annual fall sampling design, we interpret our results as follows: low-ice-extent winters induced stronger spring winds and weakened fronts on the shelf, thereby advecting some outer shelf species into the study region; increased development rates in these warm conditions influenced the proportion of C. glacialis copepodite stages over the season. Residual correlation suggests missing drivers, possibly predators, and phytoplankton bloom composition. Given the continued loss of sea ice in the region and projected continued warming, our findings suggest that C. glacialis will move northward, and thus, whales may move northward to continue targeting them.

Stuck in a corner: Anthropogenic noise threatens narwhals in their once pristine Arctic habitat

Niche-conservative species are especially susceptible to changes in their environment, and detecting the negative effects of new stressors in their habitats is vital for safeguarding of these species. In the Arctic, human disturbance including marine traffic and exploration of resources is increasing rapidly due to climate change-induced reduction of sea ice. Here, we show that the narwhal, Monodon monoceros, is extremely sensitive to human-made noise. Narwhals avoided deep diving (> 350 m) with simultaneous reduction of foraging and increased shallow diving activity as a response to either ship sound alone or ship sound with concurrent seismic airgun pulses. Normal behavior decreased by 50 to 75% at distances where received sound levels were below background noise. Narwhals were equally responsive to both disturbance types, hence demonstrating their acute sensitivity to ship sound. This sensitivity coupled with their special behavioral-ecological strategy including a narrow ecological niche and high site fidelity makes them thus especially vulnerable to human impacts in the Arctic.

A Review of Circumpolar Arctic Marine Mammal Health-A Call to Action in a Time of Rapid Environmental Change

The impacts of climate change on the health of marine mammals are increasingly being recognised. Given the rapid rate of environmental change in the Arctic, the potential ramifications on the health of marine mammals in this region are a particular concern. There are eleven endemic Arctic marine mammal species (AMMs) comprising three cetaceans, seven pinnipeds, and the polar bear (Ursus maritimus). All of these species are dependent on sea ice for survival, particularly those requiring ice for breeding. As air and water temperatures increase, additional species previously non-resident in Arctic waters are extending their ranges northward, leading to greater species overlaps and a concomitant increased risk of disease transmission. In this study, we review the literature documenting disease presence in Arctic marine mammals to understand the current causes of morbidity and mortality in these species and forecast future disease issues. Our review highlights potential pathogen occurrence in a changing Arctic environment, discussing surveillance methods for 35 specific pathogens, identifying risk factors associated with these diseases, as well as making recommendations for future monitoring for emerging pathogens. Several of the pathogens discussed have the potential to cause unusual mortality events in AMMs. Brucella, morbillivirus, influenza A virus, and Toxoplasma gondii are all of concern, particularly with the relative naivety of the immune systems of endemic Arctic species. There is a clear need for increased surveillance to understand baseline disease levels and address the gravity of the predicted impacts of climate change on marine mammal species.

Global gateways as telecoupled human and natural systems: The emerging case of the Bering Strait

Numerous narrow marine passages around the world serve as essential gateways for the transportation of goods, the movement of people, and the migration of fish and wildlife. These global gateways facilitate human-nature interactions across distant regions. The socioeconomic and environmental interactions among distant coupled human and natural systems affect the sustainability of global gateways in complex ways. However, the assessment and analysis of global gateways are scattered and fragmented. To fill this knowledge gap, we frame global gateways as telecoupled human and natural systems using an emerging global gateway, the Bering Strait, as a demonstration. We examine how three telecoupling processes (tourism, vessel traffic, and natural resource development) impact and are impacted by the coupled human and natural system of the Bering Strait Region. Given that global gateways share many similarities, our analysis of the Bering Strait Region provides a foundation for the assessment of other telecoupled global gateways.

Borealization of nearshore fishes on an interior Arctic shelf over multiple decades

Borealization is a type of community reorganization where Arctic specialists are replaced by species with more boreal distributions in response to climatic warming. The process of borealization is often exemplified by the northward range expansions and subsequent proliferation of boreal species on the Pacific and Atlantic inflow Arctic shelves (i.e., Bering/Chukchi and Barents seas, respectively). But the circumpolar nearshore distribution of Arctic-boreal fishes that predates recent warming suggests borealization is possible beyond inflow shelves. To examine this question, we revisited two nearshore lagoons in the eastern Alaska Beaufort Sea (Kaktovik and Jago lagoons, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska, USA), a High Arctic interior shelf. We compared summer fish species assemblage, catch rate, and size distribution among three periods that spanned a 30-year record (baseline conditions, 1988-1991; moderate sea ice decline, 2003-2005; rapid sea ice decline, 2017-2019). Fish assemblages differed among periods in both lagoons, consistent with borealization. Among Arctic specialists, a clear decline in fourhorn sculpin (Myoxocephalus quadricornis, Kanayuq in Iñupiaq) occurred in both lagoons with 86%-90% lower catch rates compared with the baseline period. Among the Arctic-boreal species, a dramatic 18- to 19-fold increase in saffron cod (Eleginus gracilis, Uugaq) occurred in both lagoons. Fish size (length) distributions demonstrated increases in the proportion of larger fish for most species examined, consistent with increasing survival and addition of age-classes. These field data illustrate borealization of an Arctic nearshore fish community during a period of rapid warming. Our results agree with predictions that Arctic-boreal fishes (e.g., saffron cod) are well positioned to exploit the changing Arctic ecosystem. Another Arctic-boreal species, Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma, Iqalukpik), appear to have already responded to warming by shifting from Arctic nearshore to shelf waters. More broadly, our findings suggest that areas of borealization could be widespread in the circumpolar nearshore.

New insights into projected Arctic sea road: operational risks, economic values, and policy implications

As Arctic sea ice continues to retreat, the seasonally navigable Arctic expected by mid-century or earlier is likely to facilitate the growth of polar maritime and coastal development. Here, we systematically explore the potentials for opening of trans-Arctic sea routes across a range of emissions futures and multi-model ensembles on daily timescales. We find a new Transpolar Sea Route in the western Arctic for open water vessels starting in 2045 in addition to the central Arctic corridor over the North Pole, with its frequency comparable to the latter during the 2070s under the worst-case scenario. The emergence of this new western route could be decisive for operational and strategic outcomes. Specifically, the route redistributes transits away from the Russian-administered Northern Sea Route, lowering the navigational and financial risks and the regulatory friction. Navigational risks arise from narrow straits that are often icy choke points. Financial risks arise from the substantial interannual sea ice variability and associated uncertainty. Regulatory friction arises from Russian requirements imposed under the Polar Code and Article 234 of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. These imposts are significantly reduced with shipping route regimes that enable open water transits wholly outside Russian territorial waters, and these regimes are revealed most accurately using daily ice information. The near-term navigability transition period (2025-2045) may offer an opportunity for maritime policy evaluation, revision, and action. Our user-inspired evaluation contributes towards achieving operational, economic and geopolitical objectives and serves the goal of planning a resilient, sustainable, and adaptive Arctic future.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-023-03505-4.

Sea ice directs changes in bowhead whale phenology through the Bering Strait

BACKGROUND

Climate change is warming the Arctic faster than the rest of the planet. Shifts in whale migration timing have been linked to climate change in temperate and sub-Arctic regions, and evidence suggests Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort (BCB) bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) might be overwintering in the Canadian Beaufort Sea.

METHODS

We used an 11-year timeseries (spanning 2009-2021) of BCB bowhead whale presence in the southern Chukchi Sea (inferred from passive acoustic monitoring) to explore relationships between migration timing and sea ice in the Chukchi and Bering Seas.

RESULTS

Fall southward migration into the Bering Strait was delayed in years with less mean October Chukchi Sea ice area and earlier in years with greater sea ice area (p = 0.04, r² = 0.40). Greater mean October-December Bering Sea ice area resulted in longer absences between whales migrating south in the fall and north in the spring (p < 0.01, r² = 0.85). A stepwise shift after 2012-2013 shows some whales are remaining in southern Chukchi Sea rather than moving through the Bering Strait and into the northwestern Bering Sea for the winter. Spring northward migration into the southern Chukchi Sea was earlier in years with less mean January-March Chukchi Sea ice area and delayed in years with greater sea ice area (p < 0.01, r² = 0.82).

CONCLUSIONS

As sea ice continues to decline, northward spring-time migration could shift earlier or more bowhead whales may overwinter at summer feeding grounds. Changes to bowhead whale migration could increase the overlap with ships and impact Indigenous communities that rely on bowhead whales for nutritional and cultural subsistence.

Quantifying the effect of ship noise on the acoustic environment of the Bering Strait

The narrow Bering Strait provides the only gateway between the Pacific Ocean and the Arctic, bringing migrating marine mammals in close proximity to ships transiting the strait. We characterized ship activity in the Bering Strait during the open-water season (July-November) for 2013-2015 and quantified the impact of ship noise on third-octave sound levels (TOLs) for bands used by baleen whales (25-1000 Hz). Peak ship activity occurred in July-September with the greatest overlap in ship noise and whale vocalizations observed in October. Ships elevated sound levels by ∼4 dB on average for all TOL bands combined, and 250-Hz TOLs exceeding 100 dB re 1 μPa were recorded from two large vessels over 11 km away from the hydrophones. Our results show that ship noise has the potential to impact baleen whales in the Bering Strait and serve as a baseline for measuring future changes in ship activity in the region.

Strange attractor of a narwhal (Monodon monoceros)

Detecting structures within the continuous diving behavior of marine animals is challenging, and no universal framework is available. We captured such diverse structures using chaos theory. By applying time-delay embedding to exceptionally long dive records (83 d) from the narwhal, we reconstructed the state-space portrait. Using measures of chaos, we detected a diurnal pattern and its seasonal modulation, classified data, and found how sea-ice appearance shifts time budgets. There is more near-surface rest but deeper dives at solar noon, and more intense diving during twilight and at night but to shallower depths (likely following squid); sea-ice appearance reduces rest. The introduced geometrical approach is simple to implement and potentially helpful for mapping and labeling long-term behavioral data, identifying differences between individual animals and species, and detecting perturbations.

While animal-borne ocean sensors continue to advance and collect more data, there is a lack of an adequate framework to analyze records of irregular behavior. For example, in the Arctic—there sea-ice is declining but is fundamental for the life cycle of many endemic animals—near-surface dive records are usually ignored, and continuous data are reduced to a maximum depth or similar. Here, we propose to transform our way of thinking about animal motion underwater by turning to a chaos approach and using a flowing geometrical shape to understand the full diversity of behaviors on an example of a satellite-tagged narwhal. Our method may help to assess the susceptibility of narwhal and other animals to sea-ice loss and climate warming.

A mixed methodology for evaluating use of evidence in conservation planning

Conservation practitioners widely recognize the importance of making decisions based on the best available evidence. However, the effectiveness of evidence use in conservation planning is rarely assessed, which limits opportunities to improve evidence-based practice. We devised a mixed methodology for empirically evaluating use of evidence that applies social science tools to systematically appraise what kinds of evidence are used in conservation planning, to what effect, and under what limitations. We applied our approach in a case study of the Nature Conservancy of Canada (NCC), a leading land conservation organization. We conducted qualitative and quantitative analyses of 65 NCC planning documents (n = 13 in-depth) to identify patterns in evidence use, and surveyed 35 conservation planners to examine experiences of and barriers to using evidence. Although claims in plans contained a wide range of evidence types, 26% of claims were not referenced or associated with an identifiable source. Lack of evidence use was particularly apparent in claims associated with direct threats, particularly those identified as low (71% coded as insufficient or lacking evidence) or medium (45%) threats. Survey participants described relying heavily on practitioner experience and highlighted capacity limitations and disciplinary gaps in expertise among planning teams as barriers to using evidence effectively. We found that although time-intensive, this approach yielded actionable recommendations for improving evidence use in NCC conservation plans. Similar mixed-method assessments may streamline the process by including interviews and refining the document analysis frames to target issues or sections of concern. We suggest our method provides an accessible and robust point of departure for conservation practitioners to evaluate whether the use of conservation planning reflects in-house standards and more broadly recognized best practices.

Future seasonal changes in habitat for Arctic whales during predicted ocean warming

Ocean warming is causing shifts in the distributions of marine species, but the location of suitable habitats in the future is unknown, especially in remote regions such as the Arctic. Using satellite tracking data from a 28-year-long period, covering all three endemic Arctic cetaceans (227 individuals) in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic, together with climate models under two emission scenarios, species distributions were projected to assess responses of these whales to climate change by the end of the century. While contrasting responses were observed across species and seasons, long-term predictions suggest northward shifts (243 km in summer versus 121 km in winter) in distribution to cope with climate change. Current summer habitats will decline (mean loss: -25%), while some expansion into new winter areas (mean gain: +3%) is likely. However, comparing gains versus losses raises serious concerns about the ability of these polar species to deal with the disappearance of traditional colder habitats.

Getting ahead of climate change for ecological adaptation and resilience

Changing the course of Earth's climate is increasingly urgent, but there is also a concurrent need for proactive stewardship of the adaptive capacity of the rapidly changing biosphere. Adaptation ultimately underpins the resilience of Earth's complex systems; species, communities, and ecosystems shift and evolve over time. Yet oncoming changes will seriously challenge current natural resource management and conservation efforts. We review forward-looking conservation approaches to enable adaptation and resilience. Key opportunities include expanding beyond preservationist approaches by including those that enable and facilitate ecological change. Conservation should not just focus on climate change losers but also on proactive management of emerging opportunities. Local efforts to conserve biodiversity and generate habitat complexity will also help to maintain a diversity of future options for an unpredictable future.

Exploring the Impact of Climate Change on Arctic Shipping through the Lenses of Quadruple Bottom Line and Sustainable Development Goals

Climate change is everywhere, and the Arctic is no exception. The melting sea ice has caused renewed interest in expanding maritime shipping for potentially more accessible ocean routes. Canada emerges as a natural land bridge for trade between Asia, Europe, and the Americas. Plausibly, it is not a choice but an imperative to properly integrate the stakeholders (the environment, countries, remote communities, industrial partners) in opening the Arctic Circle to the global economy while considering the challenges. Keeping sustainability front and center and drawing on the extant literature and government policies, this interdisciplinary study offers a Canadian perspective on Arctic transportation routes over tribal lands and their quadruple bottom line (QBL) impacts on the environment, economy, society, and Indigenous cultures. Unlike the arguable premise that new transport corridors will increase trade traffic and enhance the economy in Northern Canada, the QBL approach enables a more holistic and realistic strategy for the Arctic region’s sustainable development regarding regional economies, rural logistics, supply chain efficiency, and social licensing. Drawing on an integrative literature review as methodology, we highlight the QBL framework and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals as crucial policy tools. Such a holistic perspective helps stakeholders and decision makers frame better policies in identifying, assessing, adapting, and mitigating risks for transportation infrastructure exposed to climate change. We recap the impacts of Arctic Shipping (ArSh) on QBL pillars in an interaction matrix and emphasize that while ArSh may be complementary to economic development, it poses threats to the viability of the Indigenous cultures.

Climate change vulnerability of cetaceans in Macaronesia: Insights from a trait-based assessment

Over the last decades global warming has caused an increase in ocean temperature, acidification and oxygen loss which has led to changes in nutrient cycling and primary production affecting marine species at multiple trophic levels. While knowledge about the impacts of climate change in cetacean's species is still scarce, practitioners and policymakers need information about the species at risk to guide the implementation of conservation measures. To assess cetacean's vulnerability to climate change in the biogeographic region of Macaronesia, we adapted the Marine Mammal Climate Vulnerability Assessment (MMCVA) method and applied it to 21 species management units using an expert elicitation approach. Results showed that over half (62%) of the units assessed presented Very High (5 units) or High (8 units) vulnerability scores. Very High vulnerability scores were found in archipelago associated units of short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus) and common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus), namely in the Canary Islands and Madeira, as well as Risso's dolphins (Grampus griseus) in the Canary Islands. Overall, certainty scores ranged from Very High to Moderate for 67% of units. Over 50% of units showed a high potential for distribution, abundance and phenology changes as a response to climate change. With this study we target current and future information needs of conservation managers in the region, and guide research and monitoring efforts, while contributing to the improvement and validation of trait-based vulnerability approaches under a changing climate.

Acoustic differentiation and classification of wild belugas and narwhals using echolocation clicks

Belugas (Delphinapterus leucas) and narwhals (Monodon monoceros) are highly social Arctic toothed whales with large vocal repertoires and similar acoustic profiles. Passive Acoustic Monitoring (PAM) that uses multiple hydrophones over large spatiotemporal scales has been a primary method to study their populations, particularly in response to rapid climate change and increasing underwater noise. This study marks the first acoustic comparison between wild belugas and narwhals from the same location and reveals that they can be acoustically differentiated and classified solely by echolocation clicks. Acoustic recordings were made in the pack ice of Baffin Bay, West Greenland, during 2013. Multivariate analyses and Random Forests classification models were applied to eighty-one single-species acoustic events comprised of numerous echolocation clicks. Results demonstrate a significant difference between species' acoustic parameters where beluga echolocation was distinguished by higher frequency content, evidenced by higher peak frequencies, center frequencies, and frequency minimums and maximums. Spectral peaks, troughs, and center frequencies for beluga clicks were generally > 60 kHz and narwhal clicks < 60 kHz with overlap between 40-60 kHz. Classification model predictive performance was strong with an overall correct classification rate of 97.5% for the best model. The most important predictors for species assignment were defined by peaks and notches in frequency spectra. Our results provide strong support for the use of echolocation in PAM efforts to differentiate belugas and narwhals acoustically.

Vertical sonar beam width and scanning behavior of wild belugas (Delphinapterus leucas) in West Greenland

Echolocation signals of wild beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) were recorded in 2013 using a vertical, linear 16-hydrophone array at two locations in the pack ice of Baffin Bay, West Greenland. Individual whales were localized for 4:42 minutes of 1:04 hours of recordings. Clicks centered on the recording equipment (i.e. on-axis clicks) were isolated to calculate sonar parameters. We report the first sonar beam estimate of in situ recordings of wild belugas with an average -3 dB asymmetrical vertical beam width of 5.4°, showing a wider ventral beam. This narrow beam width is consistent with estimates from captive belugas; however, our results indicate that beluga sonar beams may not be symmetrical and may differ in wild and captive contexts. The mean apparent source level for on-axis clicks was 212 dB pp re 1 μPa and whales were shown to vertically scan the array from 120 meters distance. Our findings support the hypothesis that highly directional sonar beams and high source levels are an evolutionary adaptation for Arctic odontocetes to reduce unwanted surface echoes from sea ice (i.e., acoustic clutter) and effectively navigate through leads in the pack ice (e.g., find breathing holes). These results provide the first baseline beluga sonar metrics from free-ranging animals using a hydrophone array and are important for acoustic programs throughout the Arctic, particularly for acoustic classification between belugas and narwhals (Monodon monoceros).

Set sustainable goals for the Arctic gateway coordinated international governance is required to resist yet another tipping point

Global warming is reducing the Arctic sea-ice and causing energetic stress to marine key predatory species such as polar bears and narwhals contributing to the ongoing pollution already threatening the biodiversity and indigenous people of the vulnerable region. Now, the opening of the Arctic gateway and in particular the increase in shipping activities causes further stress to marine mammals in the region. These shipping activities are foreseen to happen in the Northwest and Northeast Passage, Northern Sea Route and Transpolar Sea Route in the Arctic Ocean, which could be yet another step towards a crucial tipping point destabilizing global climate, including weathering systems and sea-level rise. This calls for international governance through the establishment of Arctic International National Parks and more Marine Protected Areas through the Arctic Council and UN's Law of the Sea to ensure sustainable use of the Arctic Ocean and adjacent waters.

Low-frequency ocean ambient noise on the Chukchi Shelf in the changing Arctic

This article presents the study of a passive acoustic dataset recorded on the Chukchi Shelf from October 2016 to July 2017 during the Canada Basin Acoustic Propagation Experiment (CANAPE). The study focuses on the low-frequency (250-350 Hz) ambient noise (after individual transient signals are removed) and its environmental drivers. A specificity of the experimental area is the Beaufort Duct, a persistent warm layer intrusion of variable extent created by climate change, which favors long-range acoustic propagation. The Chukchi Shelf ambient noise shows traditional polar features: it is quieter and wind force influence is reduced when the sea is ice-covered. However, the study reveals two other striking features. First, if the experimental area is covered with ice, the ambient noise drops by up to 10 dB/Hz when the Beaufort Duct disappears. Further, a large part of the noise variability is driven by distant cryogenic events, hundreds of kilometers away from the acoustic receivers. This was quantified using correlations between the CANAPE acoustic data and distant ice-drift magnitude data (National Snow and Ice Data Center).

Circumpolar phylogeography and demographic history of beluga whales reflect past climatic fluctuations

Several Arctic marine mammal species are predicted to be negatively impacted by rapid sea ice loss associated with ongoing ocean warming. However, consequences for Arctic whales remain uncertain. To investigate how Arctic whales responded to past climatic fluctuations, we analysed 206 mitochondrial genomes from beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas) sampled across their circumpolar range, and four nuclear genomes, covering both the Atlantic and the Pacific Arctic region. We found four well-differentiated mitochondrial lineages, which were established before the onset of the last glacial expansion ~110 thousand years ago. Our findings suggested these lineages diverged in allopatry, reflecting isolation of populations during glacial periods when the Arctic sea-shelf was covered by multiyear sea ice. Subsequent population expansion and secondary contact between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans shaped the current geographic distribution of lineages, and may have facilitated mitochondrial introgression. Our demographic reconstructions based on both mitochondrial and nuclear genomes showed markedly lower population sizes during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the preceding Eemian and current Holocene interglacial periods. Habitat modelling similarly revealed less suitable habitat during the LGM (glacial) than at present (interglacial). Together, our findings suggested the association between climate, population size, and available habitat in belugas. Forecasts for year 2100 showed that beluga habitat will decrease and shift northwards as oceans continue to warm, putatively leading to population declines in some beluga populations. Finally, we identified vulnerable populations which, if extirpated as a consequence of ocean warming, will lead to a substantial decline of species-wide haplotype diversity.

Marine mammal conservation: over the horizon

Marine mammals can play important ecological roles in aquatic ecosystems, and their presence can be key to community structure and function. Consequently, marine mammals are often considered indicators of ecosystem health and flagship species. Yet, historical population declines caused by exploitation, and additional current threats, such as climate change, fisheries bycatch, pollution and maritime development, continue to impact many marine mammal species, and at least 25% are classified as threatened (Critically Endangered, Endangered or Vulnerable) on the IUCN Red List. Conversely, some species have experienced population increases/recoveries in recent decades, reflecting management interventions, and are heralded as conservation successes. To continue these successes and reverse the downward trajectories of at-risk species, it is necessary to evaluate the threats faced by marine mammals and the conservation mechanisms available to address them. Additionally, there is a need to identify evidence-based priorities of both research and conservation needs across a range of settings and taxa. To that effect we: (1) outline the key threats to marine mammals and their impacts, identify the associated knowledge gaps and recommend actions needed; (2) discuss the merits and downfalls of established and emerging conservation mechanisms; (3) outline the application of research and monitoring techniques; and (4) highlight particular taxa/populations that are in urgent need of focus.

Limited vocal compensation for elevated ambient noise in bearded seals: implications for an industrializing Arctic Ocean

Vocalizing animals have several strategies to compensate for elevated ambient noise. These behaviours evolved under historical conditions, but compensation limits are quickly being reached in the Anthropocene. Acoustic communication is essential to male bearded seals that vocalize for courtship and defending territories. As Arctic sea ice declines, industrial activities and associated anthropogenic noise are likely to increase. Documenting how seals respond to noise and identifying naturally occurring behavioural thresholds would indicate either their resilience or vulnerability to changing soundscapes. We investigated whether male bearded seals modified call amplitudes in response to changing ambient noise levels. Vocalizing seals increased their call amplitudes until ambient noise levels reached an observable threshold, above which call source levels stopped increasing. The presence of a threshold indicates limited noise compensation for seals, which still renders them vulnerable to acoustic masking of vocal signals. This behavioural threshold and response to noise is critical for developing management plans for an industrializing Arctic.

The impact of rising sea temperatures on an Arctic top predator, the narwhal

Arctic top predators are expected to be impacted by increasing temperatures associated with climate change, but the relationship between increasing sea temperatures and population dynamics of Arctic cetaceans remains largely unexplored. Narwhals (Monodon monoceros) are considered to be among the most sensitive of Arctic endemic marine mammals to climate change due to their limited prey selection, strict migratory patterns and high site fidelity. In the context of climate change, we assume that the population dynamics of narwhals are partly influenced by changes in environmental conditions, with warm areas of increasing sea temperatures having lower abundance of narwhals. Using a unique large dataset of 144 satellite tracked narwhals, sea surface temperature (SST) data spanning 25 years (1993–2018) and narwhal abundance estimates from 17 localities, we (1) assessed the thermal exposure of this species, (2) investigated the SST trends at the summer foraging grounds, and (3) assessed the relationship between SST and abundance of narwhals. We showed a sharp SST increase in Northwest, Mideast and Southeast Greenland, whereas no change could be detected in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) and in the Greenland Sea. The rising sea temperatures were correlated with the smallest narwhal abundance observed in the Mideast and Southeast Greenland (< 2000 individuals), where the mean summer sea temperatures were the highest (6.3 °C) compared to the cold waters of the CAA (0.7 °C) that were associated with the largest narwhal populations (> 40,000 individuals). These results support the hypothesis that warming ocean waters will restrict the habitat range of the narwhal, further suggesting that narwhals from Mideast and Southeast Greenland may be under pressure to abandon their traditional habitats due to ocean warming, and consequently either migrate further North or locally go extinct.

Influence of past climate change on phylogeography and demographic history of narwhals, Monodon monoceros

The Arctic is warming at an unprecedented rate, with unknown consequences for endemic fauna. However, Earth has experienced severe climatic oscillations in the past, and understanding how species responded to them might provide insight into their resilience to near-future climatic predictions. Little is known about the responses of Arctic marine mammals to past climatic shifts, but narwhals (Monodon monoceros) are considered one of the endemic Arctic species most vulnerable to environmental change. Here, we analyse 121 complete mitochondrial genomes from narwhals sampled across their range and use them in combination with species distribution models to elucidate the influence of past and ongoing climatic shifts on their population structure and demographic history. We find low levels of genetic diversity and limited geographic structuring of genetic clades. We show that narwhals experienced a long-term low effective population size, which increased after the Last Glacial Maximum, when the amount of suitable habitat expanded. Similar post-glacial habitat release has been a key driver of population size expansion of other polar marine predators. Our analyses indicate that habitat availability has been critical to the success of narwhals, raising concerns for their fate in an increasingly warming Arctic.

A Framework for Integrating Life-Safety and Environmental Consequences into Conventional Arctic Shipping Risk Models

The International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters (Polar Code) was adopted by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and entered into force on 1 January 2017. It provides a comprehensive treatment of topics relevant to ships operating in Polar regions. From a design perspective, in scenarios where ice exposure and the consequences of ice-induced damage are the same, it is rational to require the same ice class and structural performance for such vessels. Design requirements for different ice class vessels are provided in the Polar Code. The Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) methodology provided in the Polar Code offers valuable guidance regarding operational limits for ice class vessels in different ice conditions. POLARIS has been shown to well reflect structural risk, and serves as a valuable decision support tool for operations and route planning. At the same time, the current POLARIS methodology does not directly account for the potential consequences resulting from a vessel incurring ice-induced damage. While two vessels of the same ice class operating in the same ice conditions would have similar structural risk profiles, the overall risk profile of each vessel will depend on the magnitude of consequences, should an incident or accident occur. In this paper, a new framework is presented that augments the current POLARIS methodology to model consequences. It has been developed on the premise that vessels of a given class with higher potential life-safety, environmental, or socio-economic consequences should be operated more conservatively. The framework supports voyage planning and real-time operational decision making through assignment of operational criteria based on the likelihood of ice-induced damage and the potential consequences. The objective of this framework is to enhance the safety of passengers and crews and the protection of the Arctic environment and its stakeholders. The challenges associated with establishing risk perspectives and evaluating consequences for Arctic ship operations are discussed. This methodology proposes a pragmatic pathway to link ongoing scientific research with risk-based methods to help inform recommended practices and decision support tools. Example scenarios are considered to illustrate the flexibility of the methodology in accounting for varied risk profiles for different vessel types, as well as incorporating input from local communities and risk and environmental impact assessments.

Impacts of Oil Spills on Arctic Marine Ecosystems: A Quantitative and Probabilistic Risk Assessment Perspective

Oil spills resulting from maritime accidents pose a poorly understood risk to the Arctic environment. We propose a novel probabilistic method to quantitatively assess these risks. Our method accounts for spatiotemporally varying population distributions, the spreading of oil, and seasonally varying species-specific exposure potential and sensitivity to oil. It quantifies risk with explicit uncertainty estimates, enables one to compare risks over large geographic areas, and produces information on a meaningful scale for decision-making. We demonstrate the method by assessing the short-term risks oil spills pose to polar bears, ringed seals, and walrus in the Kara Sea, the western part of the Northern Sea Route. The risks differ considerably between species, spatial locations, and seasons. Our results support current aspirations to ban heavy fuel oil in the Arctic but show that we should not underestimate the risks of lighter oils either, as these oils can pollute larger areas than heavier ones. Our results also highlight the importance of spatially explicit season-specific oil spill risk assessment in the Arctic and that environmental variability and the lack of data are a major source of uncertainty related to the oil spill impacts.

Tracking arctic marine mammal resilience in an era of rapid ecosystem alteration

Global warming is significantly altering arctic marine ecosystems. Specifically, the precipitous loss of sea ice is creating a dichotomy between ice-dependent polar bears and pinnipeds that are losing habitat and some cetaceans that are gaining habitat. While final outcomes are hard to predict for the many and varied marine mammal populations that rely on arctic habitats, we suggest a simplified framework to assess status, based upon ranking a population's size, range, behavior, and health. This basic approach is proposed as a means to prioritize and expedite conservation and management efforts in an era of rapid ecosystem alteration.