Saving endangered species using adaptive management

Population and community ecology: past progress and future directions

Population and community ecology as a science are about 100 years old, and we discuss here our opinion of what approaches have progressed well and which point to possible future directions. The three major threads within population and community ecology are theoretical ecology, statistical tests and models, and experimental ecology. We suggest that our major objective is to understand what factors determine the distribution and abundance of organisms within populations and communities, and we evaluate these threads against this major objective. Theoretical ecology is elegant and compelling and has laid the groundwork for achieving our overall objectives with useful simple models. Statistics and statistical models have contributed informative methods to analyze quantitatively our understanding of distribution and abundance for future research. Population ecology is difficult to carry out in the field, even though we may have all the statistical methods and models needed to achieve results. Community ecology is growing rapidly with much description but less understanding of why changes occur. Biodiversity science cuts across all these subdivisions but rarely digs into the necessary population and community science that might solve conservation problems. Climate change affects all aspects of ecology but to assume that everything in population and community ecology is driven by climate change is oversimplified. We make recommendations on how to advance the field with advice for present and future generations of population and community ecologists.

Effects of delay and error in the feedback structure of ecological management

Ecosystems face various emergent uncertainties owing to factors such as climate change and accelerating anthropogenic impacts. Uncertainty is a major challenge and a barrier that ecosystem management faces, because it is difficult to precisely predict a priori risks that can have significant impacts on ecosystems. Hence, management with adaptive capacity is recommended to deal with such uncertainties, and feedback structures are central mechanisms for such flexible management. This study used mathematical models to clarify the specific impacts of feedback structures on ecosystem management, such as resource and wildlife management. In particular, the impact of errors in estimating ecosystem status when providing feedback and the impact of the time lag before feedback effects were implemented into management were examined. Overestimation of ecosystem status or a large time lag led to undesirable temporal oscillations in ecosystem status. However, these scenarios can be avoided when combined with management practices that limit the impact of management on the ecosystem, such as input control. Ecosystem management tends to have a large spatiotemporal scale, and implementing highly accurate monitoring and sophisticated feedback structures is difficult. However, the results suggest that effective ecosystem management with a simple feedback structure can be achieved through such complementary institutional design.

Disturbance-mediated changes to boreal mammal spatial networks in industrializing landscapes

Compound effects of anthropogenic disturbances on wildlife emerge through a complex network of direct responses and species interactions. Land-use changes driven by energy and forestry industries are known to disrupt predator-prey dynamics in boreal ecosystems, yet how these disturbance effects propagate across mammal communities remains uncertain. Using structural equation modeling, we tested disturbance-mediated pathways governing the spatial structure of multipredator multiprey boreal mammal networks across a landscape-scale disturbance gradient within Canada's Athabasca oil sands region. Linear disturbances had pervasive direct effects, increasing site use for all focal species, except black bears and threatened caribou, in at least one landscape. Conversely, block (polygonal) disturbance effects were negative but less common. Indirect disturbance effects were widespread and mediated by caribou avoidance of wolves, tracking of primary prey by subordinate predators, and intraguild dependencies among predators and large prey. Context-dependent responses to linear disturbances were most common among prey and within the landscape with intermediate disturbance. Our research suggests that industrial disturbances directly affect a suite of boreal mammals by altering forage availability and movement, leading to indirect effects across a range of interacting predators and prey, including the keystone snowshoe hare. The complexity of network-level direct and indirect disturbance effects reinforces calls for increased investment in addressing habitat degradation as the root cause of threatened species declines and broader ecosystem change.

Effectiveness of population-based recovery actions for threatened southern mountain caribou

Habitat loss is affecting many species, including the southern mountain caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) population in western North America. Over the last half century, this threatened caribou population's range and abundance have dramatically contracted. An integrated population model was used to analyze 51 years (1973-2023) of demographic data from 40 southern mountain caribou subpopulations to assess the effectiveness of population-based recovery actions at increasing population growth. Reducing potential limiting factors on threatened caribou populations offered a rare opportunity to identify the causes of decline and assess methods of recovery. Southern mountain caribou abundance declined by 51% between 1991 and 2023, and 37% of subpopulations were functionally extirpated. Wolf reduction was the only recovery action that consistently increased population growth when applied in isolation, and combinations of wolf reductions with maternal penning or supplemental feeding provided rapid growth but were applied to only four subpopulations. As of 2023, recovery actions have increased the abundance of southern mountain caribou by 52%, compared to a simulation with no interventions. When predation pressure was reduced, rapid population growth was observed, even under contemporary climate change and high levels of habitat loss. Unless predation is reduced, caribou subpopulations will continue to be extirpated well before habitat conservation and restoration can become effective.

Woodland caribou calving fidelity: Spatial location, habitat, or both?

Individuals that isolate themselves to give birth can use more than one strategy in choosing birth sites to maximize reproductive success. Previous research has focused on the consistency in the use of the same birth-site across years (i.e., spatial fidelity), but individuals alternatively may use similar habitat conditions across years (i.e., habitat fidelity). Using GPS telemetry, we determined whether woodland caribou expressed spatial or habitat fidelity during calving, and evaluated intrinsic and extrinsic factors associated with expressing either type of fidelity. We identified 56 individuals with ≥2 putative birth events, via a movement-based model, across northern Ontario between 2010 and 2014. Individuals were classified as expressing (1) spatial fidelity by comparing sequential calving locations to a random spatial distribution of available calving locations, (2) habitat fidelity using a logistic use model compared to a null (intercept only) model, (3) no fidelity (neither criterion met), or (4) both spatial and habitat fidelity (both criteria met). Across all individuals, 37% expressed no fidelity (36 of 98), 15% expressed only spatial fidelity (15 of 99), 35% expressed only habitat fidelity (34 of 98), and 14% expressed both spatial and habitat fidelity (14 of 98). Older individuals were more likely to express spatial fidelity, whereas lower availability of upland and lowland conifer forests without linear features increased the probability an individual expressed habitat fidelity. Our results indicate that managing for caribou calving needs to consider protecting both specific, known birthing sites, but also broad-scale areas of preferred habitat for calving. Understanding the mechanisms that influence caribou expressing calving fidelity, and associated fitness costs, is crucial for the conservation of the species.

Habitat alteration or climate: What drives the densities of an invading ungulate?

Anthropogenic habitat alteration and climate change are two well-known contributors to biodiversity loss through changes to species distribution and abundance; yet, disentangling the effects of these two factors is often hindered by their inherent confound across both space and time. We leveraged a contrast in habitat alteration associated with the jurisdictional boundary between two Canadian provinces to evaluate the relative effects of spatial variation in habitat alteration and climate on white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) densities. White-tailed deer are an invading ungulate across much of North America, whose expansion into Canada's boreal forest is implicated in the decline of boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), a species listed as Threatened in Canada. We estimated white-tailed deer densities using 300 remote cameras across 12 replicated 50 km2 landscapes over 5 years. White-tailed deer densities were significantly lower in areas where winter severity was higher. For example, predicted deer densities declined from 1.83 to 0.35 deer/km2 when winter severity increased from the lowest value to the median value. There was a tendency for densities to increase with increasing habitat alteration; however, the magnitude of this effect was approximately half that of climate. Our findings suggest that climate is the primary driver of white-tailed deer populations; however, understanding the mechanisms underpinning this relationship requires further study of over-winter survival and fecundity. Long-term monitoring at the invasion front is needed to evaluate the drivers of abundance over time, particularly given the unpredictability of climate change and increasing prevalence of extreme weather events.

Relational place-based solutions for environmental policy misalignments

Current reductionist approaches to environmental governance cannot resolve social-ecological crises. Siloed institutions fail to address linked social and ecological processes, thereby neglecting issues of equity, justice, and cumulative effects. Global insights can be gained from Indigenous-led initiatives that support the resilience of relationships within and among places.

Using simulation modeling to demonstrate the performance of graph theory metrics and connectivity algorithms

Models and metrics to measure ecological connectivity are now well-developed and widely used in research and applications to mitigate the ecological impacts of climate change and anthropogenic habitat loss. Despite the prevalent application of connectivity models, however, relatively little is known about the performance of these methods in predicting functional connectivity patterns and organism movement. Our goal in this paper was to compare different connectivity models in their abilities to predict a wide range of simulated animal movement patterns. We used the Pathwalker software to evaluate the performance of several connectivity model predictions based on graph theory, resistant kernels, and factorial least-cost paths. In addition, we assessed the efficacy of synoptic and patch-based approaches to defining source points for analysis. In total, we produced 28 different simulations of animal movement. As we expected, we found that the choice of connectivity model used was the variable that most influenced prediction accuracy. Moreover, we found that the resistant kernels approach consistently provided the strongest correlations to the simulated underlying movement processes. The results also suggested that the agent-based simulation approach itself can often be the best analytical framework to map functional connectivity for ecological research and conservation applications, given its biological realism and flexibility to implement combinations of movement mechanism, dispersal threshold, directional bias, destination bias and spatial composition of source locations for analysis. In doing so, we provide novel insights to guide future functional connectivity analyses. In future research, we could use the same model for several different species groups and see how this reliability depends on the species analyzed. This could bring to light other elements that play an essential role in predicting connectivity.

What Makes A Bank A Bank? Differences and Commonalities in Credit Calculation, Application, and Risks in Mitigation Banks Targeting Freshwater Fish Species and Associated Ecosystems

Mitigation banking is part of the ever-expanding global environmental market framework that aims to balance negative approved anthropogenic impacts versus third-party provided ecosystem benefits, sold in the form of credits. Given the need to conserve freshwater biodiversity and habitat, banking has received great traction for freshwater species and systems. While extensive reviews and studies have been conducted on evaluating if equivalency between impacts and offset can be achieved, there is almost no research being done on the way credits are being generated and banks are managed to inform future best practice and policy. Synthesizing banking data through cluster analyzes from 26 banks in the United States generating credits for freshwater species and associated systems, we show two generalizable approaches: removing barriers and targeting whole communities. Both address crucial freshwater conservation needs but come with their risks and caveats. Using common characteristics and management practices founded in federal and district level guidance within these two groups, we showcase and conclude that credit generation via barrier removal can be at risk of granting credit generation for too large of an area, leading to over-crediting. Banks targeting whole freshwater communities and accounting for landscape-level interactions and influences can potentially be detrimental for species on an individual level and large-scale credit availability as well as transfer can incentivize non-compliance with the mitigation hierarchy.

Climate change alone cannot explain boreal caribou range recession in Quebec since 1850

The contraction of species range is one of the most significant symptoms of biodiversity loss worldwide. While anthropogenic activities and habitat alteration are major threats for several species, climate change should also be considered. For species at risk, differentiating the effects of human disturbances and climate change on past and current range transformations is an important step towards improved conservation strategies. We paired historical range maps with global atmospheric reanalyses from different sources to assess the potential effects of recent climate change on the observed northward contraction of the range of boreal populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in Quebec (Canada) since 1850. We quantified these effects by highlighting the discrepancies between different southern limits of the caribou's range (used as references) observed in the past and reconstitutions obtained through the hindcasting of the climate conditions within which caribou are currently found. Hindcasted southern limits moved ~105 km north over time under all reanalysis datasets, a trend drastically different from the ~620 km reported for observed southern limits since 1850. The differences in latitudinal shift through time between the observed and hindcasted southern limits of distribution suggest that caribou range recession should have been only 17% of what has been observed since 1850 if recent climate change had been the only disturbance driver. This relatively limited impact of climate reinforces the scientific consensus stating that caribou range recession in Quebec is mainly caused by anthropogenic drivers (i.e. logging, development of the road network, agriculture, urbanization) that have modified the structure and composition of the forest over the past 160 years, paving the way for habitat-mediated apparent competition and overharvesting. Our results also call for a reconsideration of past ranges in models aiming at projecting future distributions, especially for endangered species.

Prioritizing Endangered Species in Genome Sequencing: Conservation Genomics in Action with the First Platinum-Standard Reference-Quality Genome of the Critically Endangered European Mink Mustela lutreola L., 1761

The European mink Mustela lutreola (Mustelidae) ranks among the most endangered mammalian species globally, experiencing a rapid and severe decline in population size, density, and distribution. Given the critical need for effective conservation strategies, understanding its genomic characteristics becomes paramount. To address this challenge, the platinum-quality, chromosome-level reference genome assembly for the European mink was successfully generated under the project of the European Mink Centre consortium. Leveraging PacBio HiFi long reads, we obtained a 2586.3 Mbp genome comprising 25 scaffolds, with an N50 length of 154.1 Mbp. Through Hi-C data, we clustered and ordered the majority of the assembly (>99.9%) into 20 chromosomal pseudomolecules, including heterosomes, ranging from 6.8 to 290.1 Mbp. The newly sequenced genome displays a GC base content of 41.9%. Additionally, we successfully assembled the complete mitochondrial genome, spanning 16.6 kbp in length. The assembly achieved a BUSCO (Benchmarking Universal Single-Copy Orthologs) completeness score of 98.2%. This high-quality reference genome serves as a valuable genomic resource for future population genomics studies concerning the European mink and related taxa. Furthermore, the newly assembled genome holds significant potential in addressing key conservation challenges faced by M. lutreola. Its applications encompass potential revision of management units, assessment of captive breeding impacts, resolution of phylogeographic questions, and facilitation of monitoring and evaluating the efficiency and effectiveness of dedicated conservation strategies for the European mink. This species serves as an example that highlights the paramount importance of prioritizing endangered species in genome sequencing projects due to the race against time, which necessitates the comprehensive exploration and characterization of their genomic resources before their populations face extinction.

Genomics of founders for conservation breeding: the Jasper caribou case

Conservation breeding programs are increasingly used as recovery actions for wild animals; bringing founders into captivity to rear captive populations for future reintroduction into the wild. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature recommends that founders should come from genetically close populations and should have sufficient genetic diversity to avoid mating among relatives. Genomic data are highly informative for evaluating founders due to their high resolution and ability to capture adaptive divergence, yet, their application in that context remains limited. Woodland caribou are federally listed as a Species at Risk in Canada, with several populations facing extirpation, such as those in the Rocky Mountains of Alberta and British Columbia (BC). To prevent local extirpation, Jasper National Park (JNP) is proposing a conservation breeding program. We examined single nucleotide polymorphisms for 144 caribou from 11 populations encompassing a 200,0002 km area surrounding JNP to provide information useful for identifying appropriate founders for this program. We found that this area likely hosts a caribou metapopulation historically characterized by high levels of gene flow, which indicates that multiple sources of founders would be appropriate for initiating a breeding program. However, population structure and adaptive divergence analyses indicate that JNP caribou are closest to populations in the BC Columbia range, which also have suitable genetic diversity for conservation breeding. We suggest that collaboration among jurisdictions would be beneficial to implement the program to promote recovery of JNP caribou and possibly other caribou populations in the surrounding area, which is strategically at the periphery of the distribution of this endangered species.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10592-023-01540-3.

Recovery of upland acid grasslands after successful Pteridium aquilinum control: Long-term effectiveness of cutting, repeated herbicide treatment and bruising

There is a clear need for the development of management strategies to control dominant, perennial weeds and restore semi-natural communities and an important part of this is to know how long control treatments take to be effective and how long they last after treatments stop. Here, we report the results from a 17-year long experiment where we compared the effects of five control treatments on dense Pteridium aquilinum (L. Kuhn) relative to an untreated experimental-control in Derbyshire, UK. The experiment was run in two phases. In Phase 1 (2005-2012) we controlled the P. aquilinum by cutting and bruising, both twice and thrice annually, and a herbicide treatment (asulam in year 1, followed by annual spot-re-treatment of all emergent fronds). In Phase 2 (2012-2021) all treatments were stopped, and the vegetation was allowed to develop naturally. Between 2005 and 2021 we monitored P. aquilinum performance annually and full plant species composition at intervals. Here, we concentrate on analysing the Phase 2 data where we used regression approaches to model individual species responses through time and unconstrained ordination to compare treatment effects on the entire species composition over both Phases. Remote sensing was also used to assess edge invasion in 2018. At the end of Phase 1, a good reduction of P. aquilinum and restoration of acid-grassland was achieved for the asulam and cutting treatments, but not for bruising. In Phase 2, P. aquilinum increased through time in all treated plots but the asulam and cutting ones maintained a much lower P. aquilinum performance for nine years on all measures assessed. There was a reduction in species richness and richness fluctuations, especially in graminoid species. However, multivariate analysis showed that the asulam and cutting treatments were stationed some distance from the untreated and bruising treatments with no apparent sign of reversions suggesting an Alternative Stable State had been created, at least over this nine-year period. P. aquilinum reinvasion was mainly from plot edges. The use of repeated P. aquilinum control treatments, either through an initial asulam spray with annual follow-up spot-spraying or cutting twice or thrice annually for eight years gave good P. aquilinum control and helped restore an acid-grassland community. Edge reinvasion was detected, and it is recommended that either whole-patch control be implemented or treatments should be continued around patch edges.

Foresight science in conservation: Tools, barriers, and mainstreaming opportunities

Foresight science is a systematic approach to generate future predictions for planning and management by drawing upon analytical and predictive tools to understand the past and present, while providing insights about the future. To illustrate the application of foresight science in conservation, we present three case studies: identification of emerging risks to conservation, conservation of at-risk species, and aid in the development of management strategies for multiple stressors. We highlight barriers to mainstreaming foresight science in conservation including knowledge accessibility/organization, communication across diverse stakeholders/decision makers, and organizational capacity. Finally, we investigate opportunities for mainstreaming foresight science including continued advocacy to showcase its application, incorporating emerging technologies (i.e., artificial intelligence) to increase capacity/decrease costs, and increasing education/training in foresight science via specialized courses and curricula for trainees and practicing professionals. We argue that failure to mainstream foresight science will hinder the ability to achieve future conservation objectives in the Anthropocene.

A call to action: Standardizing white-tailed deer harvest data in the Midwestern United States and implications for quantitative analysis and disease management

Recreational hunting has been the dominant game management and conservation mechanism in the United States for the past century. However, there are numerous modern-day issues that reduce the viability and efficacy of hunting-based management, such as fewer hunters, overabundant wildlife populations, limited access, and emerging infectious diseases in wildlife. Quantifying the drivers of recreational harvest by hunters could inform potential management actions to address these issues, but this is seldom comprehensively accomplished because data collection practices limit some analytical applications (e.g., differing spatial scales of harvest regulations and harvest data). Additionally, managing large-scale issues, such as infectious diseases, requires collaborations across management agencies, which is challenging or impossible if data are not standardized. Here we discuss modern issues with the prevailing wildlife management framework in the United States from an analytical point of view with a case study of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in the Midwest. We have four aims: (1) describe the interrelated processes that comprise hunting and suggest improvements to current data collections systems, (2) summarize data collection systems employed by state wildlife management agencies in the Midwestern United States and discuss potential for large-scale data standardization, (3) assess how aims 1 and 2 influence managing infectious diseases in hunted wildlife, and (4) suggest actionable steps to help guide data collection standards and management practices. To achieve these goals, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources disseminated a questionnaire to state wildlife agencies (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, Wisconsin), and we report and compare their harvest management structures, data collection practices, and responses to chronic wasting disease. We hope our “call to action” encourages re-evaluation, coordination, and improvement of harvest and management data collection practices with the goal of improving the analytical potential of these data. A deeper understanding of the strengths and deficiencies of our current management systems in relation to harvest and management data collection methods could benefit the future development of comprehensive and collaborative management and research initiatives (e.g., adaptive management) for wildlife and their diseases.

Stable isotopes indicate reduced body condition of caribou in disturbed areas

Understanding the impacts of disturbance on individual fitness is important for wildlife management, and critical for the conservation of species at risk. We compared the fitness and seasonal range use of 39 woodland caribou in Ontario study areas contrasted by their level of human disturbance. We previously showed that wolf density in the disturbed site was higher, likely due to human-modified landscapes favoring moose, the primary prey of wolves. In this paper we address three objectives. First, because the assimilation of dietary nitrogen is heavily influenced by metabolic processes related to stress, we hypothesized that ratios of nitrogen isotopes (N) may indicate changes in body condition in ungulates and be useful proxies for changes in fitness. Second, we predicted that increased predation risk from wolves in disturbed areas would result in measurable declines in caribou body condition. Third, we hypothesized that one mechanism for fitness declines among caribou in the disturbed area was increased wolf activity restricting caribou seasonal movements. We showed change in N in the tissues of caribou was correlated with body condition scoring using fat assessment. We used GPS collars to quantify seasonal range use and found that fitness was higher, and seasonal range overlap was lower, in caribou using the nondisturbed area. Winter fitness declines were significantly larger in the more disturbed area. Our study identifies another mechanism by which the cumulative effects of human-disturbed landscapes on caribou fitness could contribute to global declines in caribou populations.

Demographic responses of nearly extirpated endangered mountain caribou to recovery actions in Central British Columbia

Recovering endangered species is a difficult and often controversial task that challenges status quo land uses. Southern Mountain caribou are a threatened ecotype of caribou that historically ranged in southwestern Canada and northwestern USA and epitomize the tension between resource extraction, biodiversity conservation, and Indigenous Peoples' treaty rights. Human-induced habitat alteration is considered the ultimate cause of caribou population declines, whereby an increased abundance of primary prey-such as moose and deer-elevates predator populations and creates unsustainable caribou mortality. Here we focus on the Klinse-Za and Quintette subpopulations, part of the endangered Central Group of Southern Mountain caribou in British Columbia. These subpopulations were trending toward immediate extirpation until a collaborative group initiated recovery by implementing two short-term recovery actions. We test the effectiveness of these recovery actions-maternity penning of adult females and their calves, and the reduction of a primary predator, wolves-in increasing vital rates and population growth. Klinse-Za received both recovery actions, whereas Quintette only received wolf reductions, providing an opportunity to test efficacy between recovery actions. Between 1995 and 2021, we followed 162 collared female caribou for 414 animal-years to estimate survival and used aerial counts to estimate population abundance and calf recruitment. We combined these data in an integrated population model to estimate female population growth, total population abundance, and recovery action effectiveness. Results suggest that the subpopulations were declining rapidly (λ = 0.90-0.93) before interventions and would have been functionally extirpated (<10 animals) within 10-15 years. Wolf reduction increased population growth rates by ~0.12 for each subpopulation. Wolf reduction halted the decline of Quintette caribou and allowed them to increase (λ = 1.05), but alone would have only stabilized the Klinse-Za (λ = 1.02). However, maternity penning in the Klinse-Za increased population growth by a further ~0.06, which when combined with wolf reductions, allowed populations to grow (λ = 1.08). Taken together, the recovery actions in these subpopulations increased adult female survival, calf recruitment, and overall population growth, more than doubling abundance. Our results suggest that maternity penning and wolf reductions can be effective at increasing caribou numbers in the short term, while long-term commitments to habitat protection and restoration are made.

Behavioral "bycatch" from camera trap surveys yields insights on prey responses to human-mediated predation risk

Human disturbance directly affects animal populations and communities, but indirect effects of disturbance on species behaviors are less well understood. For instance, disturbance may alter predator activity and cause knock-on effects to predator-sensitive foraging in prey. Camera traps provide an emerging opportunity to investigate such disturbance-mediated impacts to animal behaviors across multiple scales. We used camera trap data to test predictions about predator-sensitive behavior in three ungulate species (caribou Rangifer tarandus; white-tailed deer, Odocoileus virginianus; moose, Alces alces) across two western boreal forest landscapes varying in disturbance. We quantified behavior as the number of camera trap photos per detection event and tested its relationship to inferred human-mediated predation risk between a landscape with greater industrial disturbance and predator activity and a "control" landscape with lower human and predator activity. We also assessed the finer-scale influence on behavior of variation in predation risk (relative to habitat variation) across camera sites within the more disturbed landscape. We predicted that animals in areas with greater predation risk (e.g., more wolf activity, less cover) would travel faster past cameras and generate fewer photos per detection event, while animals in areas with less predation risk would linger (rest, forage, investigate), generating more photos per event. Our predictions were supported at the landscape-level, as caribou and moose had more photos per event in the control landscape where disturbance-mediated predation risk was lower. At a finer-scale within the disturbed landscape, no prey species showed a significant behavioral response to wolf activity, but the number of photos per event decreased for white-tailed deer with increasing line of sight (m) along seismic lines (i.e., decreasing visual cover), consistent with a predator-sensitive response. The presence of juveniles was associated with shorter behavioral events for caribou and moose, suggesting greater predator sensitivity for females with calves. Only moose demonstrated a positive behavioral association (i.e., longer events) with vegetation productivity (16-day NDVI), suggesting that for other species bottom-up influences of forage availability were generally weaker than top-down influences from predation risk. Behavioral insights can be gleaned from camera trap surveys and provide complementary information about animal responses to predation risk, and thus about the indirect impacts of human disturbances on predator-prey interactions.

Indigenous-led conservation: Pathways to recovery for the nearly extirpated Klinse-Za mountain caribou

Indigenous Peoples around the northern hemisphere have long relied on caribou for subsistence and for ceremonial and community purposes. Unfortunately, despite recovery efforts by federal and provincial agencies, caribou are currently in decline in many areas across Canada. In response to recent and dramatic declines of mountain caribou populations within their traditional territory, West Moberly First Nations and Saulteau First Nations (collectively, the "Nations") came together to create a new vision for caribou recovery on the lands they have long stewarded and shared. The Nations focused on the Klinse-Za subpopulation, which had once encompassed so many caribou that West Moberly Elders remarked that they were "like bugs on the landscape." The Klinse-Za caribou declined from ~250 in the 1990s to only 38 in 2013, rendering Indigenous harvest of caribou nonviable and infringing on treaty rights to a subsistence livelihood. In collaboration with many groups and governments, this Indigenous-led conservation initiative paired short-term population recovery actions, predator reduction and maternal penning, with long-term habitat protection in an effort to create a self-sustaining caribou population. Here, we review these recovery actions and the promising evidence that the abundance of Klinse-Za caribou has more than doubled from 38 animals in 2013 to 101 in 2021, representing rapid population growth in response to recovery actions. With looming extirpation averted, the Nations focused efforts on securing a landmark conservation agreement in 2020 that protects caribou habitat over a 7986-km² area. The Agreement provides habitat protection for >85% of the Klinse-Za subpopulation (up from only 1.8% protected pre-conservation agreement) and affords moderate protection for neighboring caribou subpopulations (29%-47% of subpopulation areas, up from 0%-20%). This Indigenous-led conservation initiative has set both the Indigenous and Canadian governments on the path to recover the Klinse-Za subpopulation and reinstate a culturally meaningful caribou hunt. This effort highlights how Indigenous governance and leadership can be the catalyst needed to establish meaningful conservation actions, enhance endangered species recovery, and honor cultural connections to now imperiled wildlife.

Influence of maternity penning on the success and timing of parturition by mountain caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou)

Invasive conservation actions that require the capture and handling of individual animals are common, but the implications for both survival and reproduction are often not studied. Across North America, most populations of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou Gmelin, 1788) are Threatened or Endangered. Maternity penning, where pregnant females are held in an enclosure until the calf is less vulnerable to predation, is one conservation action that is designed to increase population growth. Few studies have reported the influence of maternity penning on the occurrence or timing of parturition and the implications for reproduction. We quantified parturition success and dates of penned and free-ranging caribou within the Klinse-Za population of caribou found across east-central British Columbia, Canada. Parturition dates were identified using daily observations for penned caribou (n=41) and estimated dates for free-ranging caribou (n=27) generated using statistical modelling of GPS collar data. We related parturition outcomes to a range of ecological and environmental variables. We found that the occurrence and date of parturition did not differ between penned and free-ranging caribou. For all monitored animals there was an earlier calving date during years of higher snowfall and warmer winter weather. Our results suggested that maternity penning, a potentially invasive conservation action, did not increase or decrease the probability or date of parturition for this study population.

Deer Behavior Affects Density Estimates With Camera Traps, but Is Outweighed by Spatial Variability

Density is a key trait of populations and an essential parameter in ecological research, wildlife conservation and management. Several models have been developed to estimate population density based on camera trapping data, including the random encounter model (REM) and camera trap distance sampling (CTDS). Both models need to account for variation in animal behavior that depends, for example, on the species and sex of the animals along with temporally varying environmental factors. We examined whether the density estimates of REM and CTDS can be improved for Europe’s most numerous deer species, by adjusting the behavior-related model parameters per species and accounting for differences in movement speeds between sexes, seasons, and years. Our results showed that bias through inadequate consideration of animal behavior was exceeded by the uncertainty of the density estimates, which was mainly influenced by variation in the number of independent observations between camera trap locations. The neglection of seasonal and annual differences in movement speed estimates for REM overestimated densities of red deer in autumn and spring by ca. 14%. This GPS telemetry-derived parameter was found to be most problematic for roe deer females in summer and spring when movement behavior was characterized by small-scale displacements relative to the intervals of the GPS fixes. In CTDS, density estimates of red deer improved foremost through the consideration of behavioral reactions to the camera traps (avoiding bias of max. 19%), while species-specific delays between photos had a larger effect for roe deer. In general, the applicability of both REM and CTDS would profit profoundly from improvements in their precision along with the reduction in bias achieved by exploiting the available information on animal behavior in the camera trap data.

Applying assessments of adaptive capacity to inform natural-resource management in a changing climate

Adaptive capacity (AC)-the ability of a species to cope with or accommodate climate change-is a critical determinant of species vulnerability. Using information on species' AC in conservation planning is key to ensuring successful outcomes. We identified connections between a list of species' attributes (e.g., traits, population metrics, and behaviors) that were recently proposed for assessing species' AC and management actions that may enhance AC for species at risk of extinction. Management actions were identified based on evidence from the literature, a review of actions used in other climate adaptation guidance, and our collective experience in diverse fields of global-change ecology and climate adaptation. Selected management actions support the general AC pathways of persist in place or shift in space, in response to contemporary climate change. Some actions, such as genetic manipulations, can be used to directly alter the ability of species to cope with climate change, whereas other actions can indirectly enhance AC by addressing ecological or anthropogenic constraints on the expression of a species' innate abilities to adapt. Ours is the first synthesis of potential management actions directly linked to AC. Focusing on AC attributes helps improve understanding of how and why aspects of climate are affecting organisms, as well as the mechanisms by which management interventions affect a species' AC and climate change vulnerability. Adaptive-capacity-informed climate adaptation is needed to build connections among the causes of vulnerability, AC, and proposed management actions that can facilitate AC and reduce vulnerability in support of evolving conservation paradigms.

Calf/female ratio and population dynamics of wild forest reindeer in relation to wolf and moose abundances in a managed European ecosystem

BACKGROUND

The alternative prey hypothesis describes the mechanism for apparent competition whereby the mortality of the secondary prey species increases (and population size decreases decreases) by the increased predation by the shared predator if the population size of the primary prey decreases. Apparent competition is a process where the abundance of two co-existing prey species are negatively associated because they share a mutual predator, which negatively affects the abundance of both prey Here, we examined whether alternative prey and/or apparent competition hypothesis can explain the population dynamics and reproductive output of the secondary prey, wild forest reindeer (Rangifer tarandus fennicus) in Finland, in a predator-prey community in which moose (Alces alces) is the primary prey and the wolf (Canis lupus) is the generalist predator.

METHODS

We examined a 22-year time series (1996-2017) to determine how the population size and the calf/female ratio of wild forest reindeer in Eastern Finland were related to the abundances of wolf and moose. Only moose population size was regulated by hunting. Summer predation of wolves on reindeer focuses on calves. We used least squares regression (GLS) models (for handling autocorrelated error structures and resulting pseudo-R2s) and generalized linear mixed (GLMs) models (for avoidance of negative predictions) to determine the relationships between abundances. We performed linear and general linear models for the calf/female ratio of reindeer.

RESULTS AND SYNTHESIS

The trends in reindeer population size and moose abundance were almost identical: an increase during the first years and then a decrease until the last years of our study period. Wolf population size in turn did not show long-term trends. Change in reindeer population size between consecutive winters was related positively to the calf/female ratio. The calf/female ratio was negatively related to wolf population size, but the reindeer population size was related to the wolf population only when moose abundance was entered as another independent variable. The wolf population was not related to moose abundance even though it is likely to consist the majority of the prey biomass. Because reindeer and moose populations were positively associated, our results seemed to support the alternative prey hypothesis more than the apparent competition hypothesis. However, these two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive and the primary mechanism is difficult to distinguish as the system is heavily managed by moose hunting. The recovery of wild forest reindeer in eastern Finland probably requires ecosystem management involving both habitat restoration and control of species abundances.

Evaluating online and tangible interfaces for engaging stakeholders in forecasting and control of biological invasions

Ecological forecasts will be best suited to inform intervention strategies if they are accessible to a diversity of decision-makers. Researchers are developing intuitive forecasting interfaces to guide stakeholders through the development of intervention strategies and visualization of results. Yet, few studies to date have evaluated how user interface design facilitates the coordinated, cross-boundary management required for controlling biological invasions. We used a participatory approach to develop complementary tangible and online interfaces for collaboratively forecasting biological invasions and devising control strategies. A diverse group of stakeholders evaluated both systems in the real-world context of controlling sudden oak death, an emerging forest disease killing millions of trees in California and Oregon. Our findings suggest that while both interfaces encouraged adaptive experimentation, tangible interfaces are particularly well suited to support collaborative decision-making. Reflecting on the strengths of both systems, we suggest workbench-style interfaces that support simultaneous interactions and dynamic geospatial visualizations.

An assessment of a conservation strategy to increase garden connectivity for hedgehogs that requires cooperation between immediate neighbours: A barrier too far?

Urban areas are associated with high levels of habitat fragmentation. For some terrestrial species with limited climbing abilities, property boundaries can pose a significant problem by limiting access to residential gardens. The West European hedgehog (Erinaceus europaeus) has declined markedly in the UK but is commonly found in areas of human habitation, including residential gardens. 'Hedgehog Street' is a public engagement campaign aimed at recruiting volunteers ('Hedgehog Champions') to create access points ('hedgehog highways') across garden boundaries to improve habitat connectivity. In this study, we used a series of questionnaire surveys to explore motivations for and obstacles to the creation of highways. Householders were more likely to have created a highway if they were already aware of the Hedgehog Street campaign, if their garden contained a high number of wildlife-friendly features and if they considered watching wildlife to be important. Hedgehog Champions created, on average, 1.69 highways each with 52.0% creating none; this would equate to an estimated >120,000 across all registered Champions. In comparison, 6.1-29.8% of non-Champions stated that they had made a highway. However, most highways had been created in boundaries that could already be traversed via naturally occurring holes: only 11.4% of garden boundaries could be traversed, and 3.2% of gardens accessed, just via a hedgehog highway. In addition, only 5.0% of gardens were considered totally inaccessible to hedgehogs. The most common reasons cited for not having made a highway were that householders' gardens were already accessible to hedgehogs followed by concerns relating to boundary ownership and / or communicating with neighbours. Future studies need to identify strategies for overcoming these obstacles to maximize citizen engagement, particularly with those householders who are not innately "wildlife-friendly", and to quantify the degree to which networks of highways affect patterns of individual movement and, ultimately, populations.

Demographic responses of a threatened, low-density ungulate to annual variation in meteorological and phenological conditions

As global climate change progresses, wildlife management will benefit from knowledge of demographic responses to climatic variation, particularly for species already endangered by other stressors. In Canada, climate change is expected to increasingly impact populations of threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) and much focus has been placed on how a warming climate has potentially facilitated the northward expansion of apparent competitors and novel predators. Climate change, however, may also exert more direct effects on caribou populations that are not mediated by predation. These effects include meteorological changes that influence resource availability and energy expenditure. Research on other ungulates suggests that climatic variation may have minimal impact on low-density populations such as woodland caribou because per-capita resources may remain sufficient even in “bad” years. We evaluated this prediction using demographic data from 21 populations in western Canada that were monitored for various intervals between 1994 and 2015. We specifically assessed whether juvenile recruitment and adult female survival were correlated with annual variation in meteorological metrics and plant phenology. Against expectations, we found that both vital rates appeared to be influenced by annual climatic variation. Juvenile recruitment was primarily correlated with variation in phenological conditions in the year prior to birth. Adult female survival was more strongly correlated with meteorological conditions and declined during colder, more variable winters. These responses may be influenced by the life history of woodland caribou, which reside in low-productivity refugia where small climatic changes may result in changes to resources that are sufficient to elicit strong demographic effects. Across all models, explained variation in vital rates was low, suggesting that other factors had greater influence on caribou demography. Nonetheless, given the declining trajectories of many woodland caribou populations, our results highlight the increased relevance of recovery actions when adverse climatic conditions are likely to negatively affect caribou demography.

Insect-mediated apparent competition between mammals in a boreal food web

While the important role of animal-mediated interactions in the top-down restructuring of plant communities is well documented, less is known of their ensuing repercussions at higher trophic levels. We demonstrate how typically decoupled ecological interactions may become intertwined such that the impact of an insect pest on forest structure and composition alters predator-prey interactions among large mammals. Specifically, we show how irruptions in a common, cyclic insect pest of the boreal forest, the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana), modulated an indirect trophic interaction by initiating a flush in deciduous vegetation that benefited moose (Alces alces), in turn strengthening apparent competition between moose and threatened boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) via wolf (Canis lupus) predation. Critically, predation on caribou postoutbreak was exacerbated by human activity (salvage logging). We believe our observations of significant, large-scale reverberating consumer-producer-consumer interactions are likely to be common in nature.

Exploratory and territorial behavior in a reintroduced population of Iberian lynx

In reintroduction projects, an analysis of dispersal, exploratory movements and territorial behavior of the species concerned offers valuable information on the adaptive management of threatened species and provides a basis for the management of future reintroductions. This is the case of the Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) an endemic and endangered species reintroduced in Extremadura (Spain) in 2014. We analysed spatial data from 32 individuals just after their reintroduction. Our findings show exploratory movements sufficient to colonise and connect population nuclei within a radius of about 50 km of the reintroduction area. No significant differences were found in the exploratory movements capacity or in any directionality of males and females. Our results showed an effect of sex on the sizes of the territories established, as well as an inverse relationship between them and the time elapsed since release. No effects of rabbit abundance and lynx density on the size of territories are occurring during the early stages of reintroduction. On average, the territories of reintroduced individuals were less stable than those previously described in natural populations. Findings indicate that the reintroduced population has successfully been established but it takes more than 5 years to stabilize the territories in the area. Exploratory movements of reintroduced lynx can be large and in any direction, even when there is still a lot of high quality habitat available, which should be taken into account when reintroducing species, especially terrestrial carnivores.

Effect of scavenging on predation in a food web

Scavenging can have important consequences for food web dynamics, for example, it may support additional consumer species and affect predation on live prey. Still, few food web models include scavenging. We develop a dynamic model that includes two facultative scavenger species, which we refer to as the predator or scavenger species according to their natural scavenging propensity, as well as live prey, and a carrion pool to show ramifications of scavenging for predation in simple food webs. Our modeling suggests that the presence of scavengers can both increase and decrease predator kill rates and overall predation in model food webs and the impact varies (in magnitude and direction) with context. In particular, we explore the impact of the amount of dynamics (exploitative competition) allowed in the predator, scavenger, and prey populations as well as the direction and magnitude of interference competition between predators and scavengers. One fundamental prediction is that scavengers most likely increase predator kill rates, especially if there are exploitative feedback effects on the prey or carrion resources like is normally observed in natural systems. Scavengers only have minimal effects on predator kill rate when predator, scavenger, and prey abundances are kept constant by management. In such controlled systems, interference competition can greatly affect the interactions in contrast to more natural systems, with an increase in interference competition leading to a decrease in predator kill rate. Our study adds to studies that show that the presence of predators affects scavenger behavior, vital rates, and food web structure, by showing that scavengers impact predator kill rates through multiple mechanisms, and therefore indicating that scavenging and predation patterns are tightly intertwined. We provide a road map to the different theoretical outcomes and their support from different empirical studies on vertebrate guilds to provide guidance in wildlife management.

Predation landscapes influence migratory prey ecology and evolution

Migratory prey experience spatially variable predation across their life cycle. They face unique challenges in navigating this predation landscape, which affects their perception of risk, antipredator responses, and resulting mortality. Variable and unfamiliar predator cues during migration can limit accurate perception of risk and migrants often rely on social information and learning to compensate. The energetic demands of migration constrain antipredator responses, often through context-dependent patterns. While migration can increase mortality, migrants employ diverse strategies to balance risks and rewards, including life history and antipredator responses. Humans interact frequently with migratory prey across space and alter both mortality risk and antipredator responses, which can scale up to affect migratory populations and should be considered in conservation and management.

Coyote (Canis latrans) diet and spatial co-occurrence with woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou)

The interplay of predator encounters and antipredator responses is an integral part of understanding predator–prey interactions and spatial co-occurrence and avoidance can elucidate these interactions. We conducted hard-part dietary analysis of coyotes (Canis latrans Say, 1823) and space use of coyotes and woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou (Gmelin, 1788)) to test two competing hypotheses about coyote and caribou predator–prey spatial dynamics using resource selection functions. The high encounter hypothesis predicts that coyotes would maximize encounters with caribou via high spatial co-occurrence, whereas the predator stealth hypothesis predicts that through low spatial co-occurrence with caribou, coyotes act as stealth predators by avoiding habitats that caribou typically select. Our dietary analysis revealed that ∼46% of sampled coyote diet is composed of caribou. We found that coyote share space with caribou in lichen-barren habitat in both summer and winter and that coyotes co-occur with caribou in forested habitat during summer, but not during winter. Our findings support predictions associated with the high encounter predator hypothesis whereby coyotes and caribou have high spatial co-occurrence promoting caribou in coyote diet.

Fall supplemental feeding increases population growth rate of an endangered caribou herd

Most woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) populations are declining primarily because of unsustainable predation resulting from habitat-mediated apparent competition. Wolf (Canis lupus) reduction is an effective recovery option because it addresses the direct effect of predation. We considered the possibility that the indirect effects of predation might also affect caribou population dynamics by adversely affecting summer foraging behaviour. If spring and/or summer nutrition was inadequate, then supplemental feeding in fall might compensate for that limitation and contribute to population growth. Improved nutrition and therefore body condition going into winter could increase adult survival and lead to improved reproductive success the next spring. To test that hypothesis, we fed high-quality food pellets to free-ranging caribou in the Kennedy Siding caribou herd each fall for six years, starting in 2014, to see if population growth rate increased. Beginning in winter 2015–16, the Province of British Columbia began a concurrent annual program to promote caribou population increase by attempting to remove most wolves within the Kennedy Siding and the adjacent caribou herds’ ranges. To evaluate the impact of feeding, we compared lambdas before and after feeding began, and to the population trend in the adjacent Quintette herd over the subsequent four years. Supplemental feeding appeared to have an incremental effect on population growth. Population growth of the Kennedy Siding herd was higher in the year after feeding began (λ = 1.06) compared to previous years (λ = 0.91) and to the untreated Quintette herd (λ = 0.95). Average annual growth rate of the Kennedy Siding herd over the subsequent four years, where both feeding and wolf reduction occurred concurrently, was higher than in the Quintette herd where the only management action in those years was wolf reduction (λ = 1.16 vs. λ = 1.08). The higher growth rate of the Kennedy Siding herd was due to higher female survival (96.2%/yr vs. 88.9%/yr). Many caribou were in relatively poor condition in the fall. Consumption of supplemental food probably improved their nutritional status which ultimately led to population growth. Further feeding experiments on other caribou herds using an adaptive management approach would verify the effect of feeding as a population recovery tool. Our results support the recommendation that multiple management actions should be implemented to improve recovery prospects for caribou.