The Justinianic Plague: An inconsequential pandemic?

The Natural and Clinical History of Plague: From the Ancient Pandemics to Modern Insights

The human pathogen Yersinia pestis is responsible for bubonic, septicemic, and pneumonic plague. A deeply comprehensive overview of its historical context, bacteriological characteristics, genomic analysis based on ancient DNA (aDNA) and modern strains, and its impact on historical and actual human populations, is explored. The results from multiple studies have been synthesized to investigate the origins of plague, its transmission, and effects on different populations. Additionally, molecular interactions of Y. pestis, from its evolutionary origins to its adaptation to flea-born transmission, and its impact on human and wild populations are considered. The characteristic combinations of aDNA patterns, which plays a decisive role in the reconstruction and analysis of ancient genomes, are reviewed. Bioinformatics is fundamental in identifying specific Y. pestis lineages, and automated pipelines are among the valuable tools in implementing such studies. Plague, which remains among human history's most lethal infectious diseases, but also other zoonotic diseases, requires the continuous investigation of plague topics. This can be achieved by improving molecular and genetic screening of animal populations, identifying ecological and social determinants of outbreaks, increasing interdisciplinary collaborations among scientists and public healthcare providers, and continued research into the characterization, diagnosis, and treatment of these diseases.

Characterization of an aspartate aminotransferase encoded by YPO0623 with frequent nonsense mutations in Yersinia pestis

Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, is a genetically monomorphic bacterial pathogen that evolved from Yersinia pseudotuberculosis approximately 7,400 years ago. We observed unusually frequent mutations in Y. pestis YPO0623, mostly resulting in protein translation termination, which implies a strong natural selection. These mutations were found in all phylogenetic lineages of Y. pestis, and there was no apparent pattern in the spatial distribution of the mutant strains. Based on these findings, we aimed to investigate the biological function of YPO0623 and the reasons for its frequent mutation in Y. pestis. Our in vitro and in vivo assays revealed that the deletion of YPO0623 enhanced the growth of Y. pestis in nutrient-rich environments and led to increased tolerance to heat and cold shocks. With RNA-seq analysis, we also discovered that the deletion of YPO0623 resulted in the upregulation of genes associated with the type VI secretion system (T6SS) at 26°C, which probably plays a crucial role in the response of Y. pestis to environment fluctuations. Furthermore, bioinformatic analysis showed that YPO0623 has high homology with a PLP-dependent aspartate aminotransferase in Salmonella enterica, and the enzyme activity assays confirmed its aspartate aminotransferase activity. However, the enzyme activity of YPO0623 was significantly lower than that in other bacteria. These observations provide some insights into the underlying reasons for the high-frequency nonsense mutations in YPO0623, and further investigations are needed to determine the exact mechanism.

Mid-to-late Holocene climate variability in coastal East Asia and its impact on ancient Korean societies

The sustainability of human societies is contingent upon our ability to accurately predict the effects of future climate change on the global environment and humanity. Wise responses to forthcoming environmental alterations require extensive knowledge from historical precedents. However, in coastal East Asia, a region with a long history of agriculture, it is challenging to obtain paleoenvironmental proxy data without anthropogenic disturbances that can be used to assess the impact of late Holocene climate change on local communities. This study introduces a high-resolution multi-proxy sedimentary record from an isolated crater in Jeju Island, Korea, to elucidate the mechanisms underlying mid-to-late Holocene climate change and its impacts on ancient societies. Our findings suggest that hydroclimate changes were predominantly governed by sea surface temperature fluctuations in the western tropical Pacific, with low-frequency variability in solar activity and a decrease in summer insolation identified as primary drivers of temperature change. Moreover, ancient societies on the Korean peninsula were significantly affected by recurring cooling events, including the 2.8 ka event, 2.3 ka event, Late Antique Little Ice Age, maunder minimum, and others.

Overview of Yersinia pestis Metallophores: Yersiniabactin and Yersinopine

The pathogenic anaerobic bacteria Yersinia pestis (Y. pestis), which is well known as the plague causative agent, has the ability to escape or inhibit innate immune system responses, which can result in host death even before the activation of adaptive responses. Bites from infected fleas in nature transmit Y. pestis between mammalian hosts causing bubonic plague. It was recognized that a host's ability to retain iron is essential in fighting invading pathogens. To proliferate during infection, Y. pestis, like most bacteria, has various iron transporters that enable it to acquire iron from its hosts. The siderophore-dependent iron transport system was found to be crucial for the pathogenesis of this bacterium. Siderophores are low-molecular-weight metabolites with a high affinity for Fe³⁺. These compounds are produced in the surrounding environment to chelate iron. The siderophore secreted by Y. pestis is yersiniabactin (Ybt). Another metallophore produced by this bacterium, yersinopine, is of the opine type and shows similarities with both staphylopine and pseudopaline produced by Staphylococcus aureus and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respectively. This paper sheds light on the most important aspects of the two Y. pestis metallophores as well as aerobactin a siderophore no longer secreted by this bacterium due to frameshift mutation in its genome.

Norovirus: An Overview of Virology and Preventative Measures

Norovirus (NoV) is an enteric non-enveloped virus which is the leading cause of gastroenteritis across all age groups. It is responsible for around 200,000 deaths annually and outbreaks are common in small communities such as educational and care facilities. 40% of all NoV outbreaks occur in long-term and acute-care facilities, forming the majority of outbreaks. Nosocomial settings set ideal environments for ease of transmission, especially due to the presence of immunocompromised groups. It is estimated to cost global economies around £48 billion a year, making it a global issue. NoV is transmitted via the faecal-oral route and infection with it results in asymptomatic cases or gastrointestinal disease. It has high mutational rates and this allows for new variants to emerge and be more resistant. The classification system available divides NoV into 10 genogroups and 49 genotypes based on whole amino acid sequencing of VP1 capsid protein and partial sequencing of RdRp, respectively. The most predominant genotypes which cause gastroenteritis in humans include GI.1 and GII.4, where GII.4 is responsible for more extreme clinical implications such as hospitalisation. In addition, GII.4 has been responsible for 6 pandemic strains, the last of which is the GII.4 Sydney (2012) variant. In recent years, the successful cultivation of HuNoV was reported in stem cell-derived human intestinal enteroids (HIEs), which promises to assist in giving a deeper understanding of its underlying mechanisms of infection and the development of more personalized control measures. There are no specific control measures against NoV, therefore common practices are used against it such as hand washing. No vaccine is available, but the HIL-214 candidate passed clinical phase 2b and shows promise.

Aerosol transmission of human pathogens: From miasmata to modern viral pandemics and their preservation potential in the Anthropocene record

Ongoing uncertainty over the relative importance of aerosol transmission of COVID-19 is in part rooted in the history of medical science and our understanding of how epidemic diseases can spread through human populations. Ancient Greek medical theory held that such illnesses are transmitted by airborne pathogenic emanations containing particulate matter ("miasmata"). Notable Roman and medieval scholars such as Varro, Ibn al-Khatib and Fracastoro developed these ideas, combining them with early germ theory and the concept of contagion. A widely held but vaguely defined belief in toxic miasmatic mists as a dominant causative agent in disease propagation was overtaken by the science of 19th century microbiology and epidemiology, especially in the study of cholera, which was proven to be mainly transmitted by contaminated water. Airborne disease transmission came to be viewed as burdened by a dubious historical reputation and difficult to demonstrate convincingly. A breakthrough came with the classic mid-20th century work of Wells, Riley and Mills who proved how expiratory aerosols (their "droplet nuclei") could transport still-infectious tuberculosis bacteria through ventilation systems. The topic of aerosol transmission of pathogenic respiratory diseases assumed a new dimension with the mid-late 20th century "Great Acceleration" of an increasingly hypermobile human population repeatedly infected by different strains of zoonotic viruses, and has taken centre stage this century in response to outbreaks of new respiratory infections that include coronaviruses. From a geoscience perspective, the consequences of pandemic-status diseases such as COVID-19, produced by viral pathogens utilising aerosols to infect a human population currently approaching 8 billion, are far-reaching and unprecedented. The obvious and sudden impacts on for example waste plastic production, water and air quality and atmospheric chemistry are accelerating human awareness of current environmental challenges. As such, the "anthropause" lockdown enforced by COVID-19 may come to be seen as a harbinger of change great enough to be preserved in the Anthropocene stratal record.

Four New Horsemen of an Apocalypse? Solar Flares, Super-volcanoes, Pandemics, and Artificial Intelligence

If economists have largely failed to predict or prevent the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, and the more disastrous economic collapse associated with the pandemic of 2020, what else is the profession missing? This is the question that motivates this survey. Specifically, we want to highlight four catastrophic risks – i.e., risks that can potentially result in global catastrophes of a much larger magnitude than either of the 2008 or 2020 events. The four risks we examine here are: Space weather and solar flares, super-volcanic eruptions, high-mortality pandemics, and misaligned artificial intelligence. All four have a non-trivial probability of occurring and all four can lead to a catastrophe, possibly not very different from human extinction. Inevitably, and fortunately, these catastrophic events have not yet occurred, so the literature investigating them is by necessity more speculative and less grounded in empirical observations. Nevertheless, that does not make these risks any less real. This survey is motivated by the belief that economists can and should be thinking about these risks more systematically, so that we can devise the appropriate ways to prevent them or ameliorate their potential impacts.

Settlement, environment, and climate change in SW Anatolia: Dynamics of regional variation and the end of Antiquity

This paper develops a regional dataset of change at 381 settlements for Lycia-Pamphylia in southwest Anatolia (Turkey) from volume 8 of the Tabula Imperii Byzantini–a compilation of historical toponyms and archaeological evidence. This region is rich in archaeological remains and high-quality paleo-climatic and -environmental archives. Our archaeological synthesis enables direct comparison of these datasets to discuss current hypotheses of climate impacts on historical societies. A Roman Climatic Optimum, characterized by warmer and wetter conditions, facilitating Roman expansion in the 1^st-2^nd centuries CE cannot be supported here, as Early Byzantine settlement did not benefit from enhanced precipitation in the 4^th-6^th centuries CE as often supposed. However, widespread settlement decline in a period with challenging archaeological chronologies (c. 550–650 CE) was likely caused by a “perfect storm” of environmental, climatic, seismic, pathogenic and socio-economic factors, though a shift to drier conditions from c. 460 CE appears to have preceded other factors by at least a century.

Learnings from COVID-19 for managing humanitarian supply chains: systematic literature review and future research directions

The COVID-19 pandemic has been experienced as the most significant global disaster after the Spanish flue in 1918. Millions of people lost their life due to a lack of preparedness and ineffective strategies for managing humanitarian supply chains (HSC). Based on the learnings from this pandemic outbreak, different strategies for managing the effective HSC have been explored in the present context of pandemics through a systematic literature review. The findings highlight some of the major challenges faced during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as lack of planning and preparedness, extended shortages of essential lifesaving items, inadequate lab capacity, lack of transparency and visibility, inefficient distribution network, high response time, dependencies on single sourcing for the medical equipment and medicines, lack of the right information on time, and lack of awareness about the protocol for the treatment of the viral disease. Some of the significant learnings observed from this analysis are the use of multiple sourcing of essential items, joint procurement, improving collaboration among all stakeholders, applications of IoT and blockchain technologies for improving tracking and traceability of essential commodities, application of data analytics tools for accurate prediction of next possible COVID wave/disruptions and optimization of distribution network. Limited studies are focused on finding solutions to these problems in managing HSC. Therefore, as a future scope, researchers could find solutions to optimizing the distribution network in context to pandemics, improving tracing and tracking of items during sudden demand, improving trust and collaborations among different agencies involved in HSC.

Microorganisms as Shapers of Human Civilization, from Pandemics to Even Our Genomes: Villains or Friends? A Historical Approach

Universal history is characterized by continuous evolution, in which civilizations are born and die. This evolution is associated with multiple factors, among which the role of microorganisms is often overlooked. Viruses and bacteria have written or decisively contributed to terrible episodes of history, such as the Black Death in 14th century Europe, the annihilation of pre-Columbian American civilizations, and pandemics such as the 1918 Spanish flu or the current COVID-19 pandemic caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2. Nevertheless, it is clear that we could not live in a world without these tiny beings. Endogenous retroviruses have been key to our evolution and for the regulation of gene expression, and the gut microbiota helps us digest compounds that we could not otherwise process. In addition, we have used microorganisms to preserve or prepare food for millennia and more recently to obtain drugs such as antibiotics or to develop recombinant DNA technologies. Due to the enormous importance of microorganisms for our survival, they have significantly influenced the population genetics of different human groups. This paper will review the role of microorganisms as "villains" who have been responsible for tremendous mortality throughout history but also as "friends" who help us survive and evolve.

Badania kopalnego DNA – możliwości i ograniczenia

Ostatnie cztery dekady przyniosły znaczący rozwój archeologii molekularnej i badania nad kopalnym DNA (aDNA). Nowatorskie metody uwzględniają szeroki zakres badań, począwszy od sekwencjonowania niewielkich fragmentów mitochondrialnego DNA po wielkoskalowe badania całych populacji, łączące sekwencjonowanie genomów mitochondrialnych, genów podlegających doborowi naturalnemu, jak i całych genomów jądrowych. Postęp, zwłaszcza w dziedzinie technologii sekwencjonowania DNA, umożliwił pozyskanie informacji ze szczątków paleontologicznych i materiału archeologicznego, umożliwiając zbadanie związków filogenetycznych między wymarłymi i współczesnymi gatunkami. Dzięki zastosowaniu technologii sekwencjonowania nowej generacji możliwe stało się poznanie sekwencji DNA nie tylko bezpośrednio ze szczątków ludzkich lub zwierzęcych, ale także z osadów sedymentacyjnych z głębin jezior oraz jaskiń. W artykule przedstawiono możliwości i ograniczenia występujące w badaniach nad kopalnym DNA ludzi, zwierząt czy bakterii z podkreśleniem wkładu polskich badaczy w rozwój tej dziedziny nauki.

Barbarigenesis and the collapse of complex societies: Rome and after

"Barbarism" is perhaps best understood as a recurring syndrome among peripheral societies in response to the threats and opportunities presented by more developed neighbors. This article develops a mathematical model of barbarigenesis-the formation of "barbarian" societies adjacent to more complex societies-and its consequences, and applies the model to the case of Europe in the first millennium CE. A starting point is a game (developed by Hirshleifer) in which two players allocate their resources either to producing wealth or to fighting over wealth. The paradoxical result is that a richer and potentially more powerful player may lose out to a poorer player, because the opportunity cost of fighting is greater for the former. In a more elaborate spatial model with many players, the outcome is a wealth-power mismatch: central regions have comparatively more wealth than power, peripheral regions have comparatively more power than wealth. In a model of historical dynamics, a wealth-power mismatch generates a long-lasting decline in social complexity, sweeping from more to less developed regions, until wealth and power come to be more closely aligned. This article reviews how well this model fits the historical record of late Antiquity and the early Middle Ages in Europe both quantitatively and qualitatively. The article also considers some of the history left out of the model, and why the model doesn't apply to the modern world.

Pandemics: Historically Slow "Learning Curve" Leading to Biomedical Informatics and Vaccine Breakthroughs

BACKGROUND

The worldwide tragedy of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic vividly demonstrates just how inadequate mitigation and control of the spread of infectious diseases can be when faced with a new microorganism with unknown pathogenic effects. Responses by governments in charge of public health, and all other involved organizations, have proved largely wanting. Data infrastructure and the information and communication systems needed to deal with the pandemic have likewise not been up to the task. Nevertheless, after a year of the worldwide outbreak, hope arises from this being the first major pandemic event in history where genomic and related biosciences - relying on biomedical informatics - have been essential in decoding the viral sequence data and producing the mRNA and other biotechnologies that unexpectedly rapidly have led to investigation, design, development, and testing of useful vaccines. Medical informatics may also help support public health actions and clinical interventions - but scalability and impact will depend on overcoming ingrained human shortcomings to deal with complex socio-economic, political, and technological disruptions together with the many ethical challenges presented by pandemics.

OBJECTIVES

The principal goal is to review the history of biomedical information and healthcare practices related to past pandemics in order to illustrate just how exceptional and dependent on biomedical informatics are the recent scientific insights into human immune responses to viral infection, which are enabling rapid antiviral vaccine development and clinical management of severe cases - despite the many societal challenges ahead.

METHODS

This paper briefly reviews some of the key historical antecedents leading up to modern insights into epidemic and pandemic processes with their biomedical and healthcare information intended to guide practitioners, agencies, and the lay public in today's ongoing pandemic events.

CONCLUSIONS

Poor scientific understanding and excessively slow learning about infectious disease processes and mitigating behaviors have stymied effective treatment until the present time. Advances in insights about immune systems, genomes, proteomes, and all the other -omes, became a reality thanks to the key sequencing technologies and biomedical informatics that enabled the Human Genome Project, and only now, 20 years later, are having an impact in ameliorating devastating zoonotic infectious pandemics, including the present SARS-CoV-2 event through unprecedently rapid vaccine development. In the future these advances will hopefully also enable more targeted prevention and treatment of disease. However, past and present shortcomings of most of the COVID-19 pandemic responses illustrate just how difficult it is to persuade enough people - and especially political leaders - to adopt societally beneficial risk-avoidance behaviors and policies, even as these become better understood.

Beyond one-way determinism: San Frediano's miracle and climate change in Central and Northern Italy in late antiquity

Integrating palaeoclimatological proxies and historical records, which is necessary to achieve a more complete understanding of climate impacts on past societies, is a challenging task, often leading to unsatisfactory and even contradictory conclusions. This has until recently been the case for Italy, the heart of the Roman Empire, during the transition between Antiquity and the Middle Ages. In this paper, we present new high-resolution speleothem data from the Apuan Alps (Central Italy). The data document a period of very wet conditions in the sixth c. AD, probably related to synoptic atmospheric conditions similar to a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. For this century, there also exist a significant number of historical records of extreme hydroclimatic events, previously discarded as anecdotal. We show that this varied evidence reflects the increased frequency of floods and extreme rainfall events in Central and Northern Italy at the time. Moreover, we also show that these unusual hydroclimatic conditions overlapped with the increased presence of "water miracles" in Italian hagiographical accounts and social imagination. The miracles, performed by local Church leaders, strengthened the already growing authority of holy bishops and monks in Italian society during the crucial centuries that followed the "Fall of the Roman Empire". Thus, the combination of natural and historical data allows us to show the degree to which the impact of climate variability on historical societies is determined not by the nature of the climatic phenomena per se, but by the culture and the structure of the society that experienced it.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-021-03043-x.

Pandemics: past, present, future: That is like choosing between cholera and plague

The major epidemic and pandemic diseases that have bothered humans since the Neolithic Age and Bronze Age are surveyed. Many of these pandemics are zoonotic infections, and the mathematical modeling of such infections is illustrated. Plague, cholera, syphilis, influenza, SARS, MERS, COVID‐19, and new potential epidemic and pandemic infections and their consequences are described and the background for the spread of acute and chronic infections and the transition to endemic infections is discussed. The way we can prevent and fight pandemics is illustrated from the old and new well‐known pandemics. Surprisingly, the political reactions through different periods have not changed much during the centuries.

SARS-CoV-2: Outline, Prevention, and Decontamination

The new coronavirus began to spread around the world in late 2019. Initially, it was found only in China, but in the following days there were reported cases of infections in other countries. Subsequently, based on taxonomy, phylogeny, and accepted practice, the virus was officially designated as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). As a result of the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 in different countries around the world, on March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced a status change in the disease caused by this coronavirus-from an epidemic to a pandemic disease. Although the world is taking unprecedented efforts to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the number of confirmed cases is rising. Therefore, effective preventive measures are needed in order to limit the spread of illness. The prevention measures are mainly based on information on the virus transmission routes, its environmental stability, and persistence on commonly touched surfaces. Social distancing, mask usage, and good hygiene practice are the most important recommendations for general public. Healthcare professionals who are directly involved in SARS-CoV-2 patients care are more exposed to virus infection and additional protection measures are necessary, including protective suits, aprons, face shields, goggles, and gloves. Due to the stability of SARS-CoV-2 on different surfaces, such as glass, paper, or wood, proper disinfection is crucial. Several studies have shown that despite the virus's stability, it is sensitive to various disinfectants, such as ethanol, isopropanol, sodium hypochlorite, or hydrogen peroxide. These findings underline the importance of having comprehensive knowledge about SARS-CoV-2 and multidirectional strategies in order to limit the spread of the virus. This review is a summary of the most important information about SARS-CoV-2, such as its stability on different surfaces, protection strategies, and decontamination options.

Yersinia pestis: the Natural History of Plague

The Gram-negative bacterium Yersinia pestis is responsible for deadly plague, a zoonotic disease established in stable foci in the Americas, Africa, and Eurasia. Its persistence in the environment relies on the subtle balance between Y. pestis-contaminated soils, burrowing and nonburrowing mammals exhibiting variable degrees of plague susceptibility, and their associated fleas. Transmission from one host to another relies mainly on infected flea bites, inducing typical painful, enlarged lymph nodes referred to as buboes, followed by septicemic dissemination of the pathogen. In contrast, droplet inhalation after close contact with infected mammals induces primary pneumonic plague. Finally, the rarely reported consumption of contaminated raw meat causes pharyngeal and gastrointestinal plague. Point-of-care diagnosis, early antibiotic treatment, and confinement measures contribute to outbreak control despite residual mortality. Mandatory primary prevention relies on the active surveillance of established plague foci and ectoparasite control. Plague is acknowledged to have infected human populations for at least 5,000 years in Eurasia. Y. pestis genomes recovered from affected archaeological sites have suggested clonal evolution from a common ancestor shared with the closely related enteric pathogen Yersinia pseudotuberculosis and have indicated that ymt gene acquisition during the Bronze Age conferred Y. pestis with ectoparasite transmissibility while maintaining its enteric transmissibility. Three historic pandemics, starting in 541 AD and continuing until today, have been described. At present, the third pandemic has become largely quiescent, with hundreds of human cases being reported mainly in a few impoverished African countries, where zoonotic plague is mostly transmitted to people by rodent-associated flea bites.

The role of louse-transmitted diseases in historical plague pandemics

The rodent-murine ectoparasite-human model of plague transmission does not correspond with historical details around plague pandemics in Europe. New analysis of ancient genomes reveal that Yersinia pestis was unable to be transmitted by rat fleas until around 4000 Before Present, which challenges the rodent-murine ectoparasite-human model of plague transmission and historical details around plague pandemics in Europe. In this Review, we summarise data regarding Y pestis transmission by human lice in the context of genomic evolution and co-transmission of other major epidemic deadly pathogens throughout human history, with the aim of broadening our view of plague transmission. Experimental models support the efficiency of human lice as plague vectors through infected faeces, which suggest that Y pestis could be a louse-borne disease, similar to Borrelia recurrentis, Rickettsia prowazekii, and Bartonella quintana. Studies have shown that louse-borne outbreaks often involve multiple pathogens, and several cases of co-transmission of Y pestis and B quintana have been reported. Furthermore, an exclusive louse-borne bacterium, namely B recurrentis, was found to be circulating in northern Europe during the second plague pandemic (14th-18th century). Current data make it possible to attribute large historical pandemics to multiple bacteria, and suggests that human lice probably played a preponderant role in the interhuman transmission of plague and pathogen co-transmission during previous large epidemics, including plague pandemics.

Paleomedicine and the Evolutionary Context of Medicinal Plant Use

Modern human need for medicines is so extensive that it is thought to be a deep evolutionary behavior. There is abundant evidence from our Paleolithic and later prehistoric past, of survival after periodontal disease, traumas, and invasive medical treatments including trepanations and amputations, suggesting a detailed, applied knowledge of medicinal plant secondary compounds. Direct archeological evidence for use of plants in the Paleolithic is rare, but evidence is growing. An evolutionary context for early human use of medicinal plants is provided by the broad evidence for animal self-medication, in particular, of non-human primates. During the later Paleolithic, there is evidence for the use of poisonous and psychotropic plants, suggesting that Paleolithic humans built on and expanded their knowledge and use of plant secondary compounds.

Decarceration and community re-entry in the COVID-19 era

Jails and prisons are exceptionally susceptible to viral outbreaks, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. The USA has extremely high rates of incarceration and COVID-19 is causing an urgent health crisis in correctional facilities and detention centres. Epidemics happening in prisons are compounding the elevated risks that COVID-19 poses to people of colour, older people, and those with comorbidities. Intersectoral community re-entry efforts in the USA and other countries have shown that releasing people from correctional facilities as a pandemic-era public health intervention is safe and can support both public safety and community rebuilding. Therefore, substantial decarceration in the USA should be initiated. A point of focus for such efforts is that many people in prison are serving excessively long sentences and pose acceptable safety risks for release. Properly managed, correctional depopulation will prevent considerable COVID-19 morbidity and mortality and reduce prevailing socioeconomic and health inequities.

Past pandemics and climate variability across the Mediterranean

The influence that meteorological, climatological and environmental factors had on historical disease outbreaks is often speculated upon, but little investigated. Here, we explore potential associations between pandemic disease and climate over the last 2,500 years in Mediterranean history, focusing on ancient disease outbreaks and the Justinianic plague in particular. We underscore variation in the quality, quantity and interpretation of written evidence and proxy information from natural archives, the comlexity of identifying and disentangling past climatological and environmental drivers, and the need to integrate diverse methodologies to discern past climate-disease linkages and leverage historical experiences to prepare for the rapid expansion of novel pathogenic diseases. Although the difficulties entailed in establishing historical climate-pandemic linkages persist to the present, this is a research area as urgent as it is complex and historical perspectives are desperately needed.

The rise and fall of viticulture in the Late Antique Negev Highlands reconstructed from archaeobotanical and ceramic data

The international scope of the Mediterranean wine trade in Late Antiquity raises important questions concerning sustainability in an ancient international economy and offers a valuable historical precedent to modern globalization. Such questions involve the role of intercontinental commerce in maintaining sustainable production within important supply regions and the vulnerability of peripheral regions believed to have been especially sensitive to environmental and political disturbances. We provide archaeobotanical evidence from trash mounds at three sites in the central Negev Desert, Israel, unraveling the rise and fall of viticulture over the second to eighth centuries of the common era (CE). Using quantitative ceramic data obtained in the same archaeological contexts, we further investigate connections between Negev viticulture and circum-Mediterranean trade. Our findings demonstrate interrelated growth in viticulture and involvement in Mediterranean trade reaching what appears to be a commercial scale in the fourth to mid-sixth centuries. Following a mid-sixth century peak, decline of this system is evident in the mid- to late sixth century, nearly a century before the Islamic conquest. These findings closely correspond with other archaeological evidence for social, economic, and urban growth in the fourth century and decline centered on the mid-sixth century. Contracting markets were a likely proximate cause for the decline; possible triggers include climate change, plague, and wider sociopolitical developments. In long-term historical perspective, the unprecedented commercial florescence of the Late Antique Negev appears to have been unsustainable, reverting to an age-old pattern of smaller-scale settlement and survival-subsistence strategies within a time frame of about two centuries.

Lessons from the past, policies for the future: resilience and sustainability in past crises

This article surveys some examples of the ways past societies have responded to environmental stressors such as famine, war, and pandemic. We show that people in the past did think about system recovery, but only on a sectoral scale. They did perceive challenges and respond appropriately, but within cultural constraints and resource limitations. Risk mitigation was generally limited in scope, localized, and again determined by cultural logic that may not necessarily have been aware of more than symptoms, rather than actual causes. We also show that risk-managing and risk-mitigating arrangements often favored the vested interests of elites rather than the population more widely, an issue policy makers today still face.

Modeling the Justinianic Plague: Comparing hypothesized transmission routes

The Justinianic Plague, the first part of the earliest of the three plague pandemics, has minimal historical documentation. Based on the limited primary sources, historians have argued both for and against the "maximalist narrative" of plague, i.e. that the Justinianic Plague had universally devastating effects throughout the Mediterranean region during the sixth century CE. Using primary sources of one of the pandemic’s best documented outbreaks that took place in Constantinople during 542 CE, as well as modern findings on plague etiology and epidemiology, we developed a series of dynamic, compartmental models of disease to explore which, if any, transmission routes of plague are feasible. Using expected parameter values, we find that the bubonic and bubonic-pneumonic transmission routes exceed maximalist mortality estimates and are of shorter detectable duration than described by the primary sources. When accounting for parameter uncertainty, several of the bubonic plague model configurations yielded interquartile estimates consistent with the upper end of maximalist estimates of mortality; however, these models had shorter detectable outbreaks than suggested by the primary sources. The pneumonic transmission routes suggest that by itself, pneumonic plague would not cause significant mortality in the city. However, our global sensitivity analysis shows that predicted disease dynamics vary widely for all hypothesized transmission routes, suggesting that regardless of its effects in Constantinople, the Justinianic Plague would have likely had differential effects across urban areas around the Mediterranean. Our work highlights the uncertainty surrounding the details in the primary sources on the Justinianic Plague and calls into question the likelihood that the Justinianic Plague affected all localities in the same way.