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Chabuka L, Choga WT, Mavian CN, Moir M, Morgenstern C, Tegaly H, Sharma A, Wilkinson E, Naidoo Y, Inward R, Bhatt S, William Wint G, Khan K, Bogoch II, Kraemer MU, Lourenço J, Baxter C, Tagliamonte M, Salemi M, Lessells RJ, Mitambo C, Chitatanga R, Bitilinyu-Bango J, Chiwaula M, Chavula Y, Bukhu M, Manda H, Chitenje M, Malolo I, Mwanyongo A, Mvula B, Nyenje M, de Oliveira T, Kagoli M. Genomic Surveillance of Climate-Amplified Cholera Outbreak, Malawi, 2022-2023. Emerg Infect Dis 2025; 31:1090-1099. [PMID: 40439430 PMCID: PMC12123921 DOI: 10.3201/eid3106.240930] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/02/2025] Open
Abstract
In the aftermath of 2 extreme weather events in 2022, Malawi experienced a severe cholera outbreak; 59,325 cases and 1,774 deaths were reported by March 31, 2024. We generated 49 Vibrio cholerae full genomes from isolates collected during December 2022-March 2023. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic methods confirmed that the Malawi outbreak strains originated from Pakistan's 2022 cholera outbreak. That finding aligns with substantial travel between the 2 countries. The estimated most recent ancestor of this lineage was from June-August 2022, coinciding with Pakistan's floods and cholera surge. Our analysis indicates that major floods in Malawi contributed to the outbreak; reproduction numbers peaked in late December 2022. We conclude that extreme weather events and humanitarian crises in Malawi created conditions conducive to the spread of cholera, and population displacement likely contributed to transmission to susceptible populations in areas relatively unaffected by cholera for more than a decade.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | - Houriiyah Tegaly
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Abhinav Sharma
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Eduan Wilkinson
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Yeshnee Naidoo
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Rhys Inward
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Samir Bhatt
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - G.R. William Wint
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Kamran Khan
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Isaac I. Bogoch
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Moritz U.G. Kraemer
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - José Lourenço
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Cheryl Baxter
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Massimiliano Tagliamonte
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Marco Salemi
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Richard J. Lessells
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Collins Mitambo
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Ronald Chitatanga
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Joseph Bitilinyu-Bango
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Mabvuto Chiwaula
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Yollamu Chavula
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Mphatso Bukhu
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Happy Manda
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Moses Chitenje
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Innocent Malolo
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Alex Mwanyongo
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Bernard Mvula
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Mirrium Nyenje
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Tulio de Oliveira
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
| | - Mathew Kagoli
- Centre for Epidemic Control and Innovation, School of Data Science and Computational Thinking, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (L. Chabuka, W.T. Choga, M. Moir, H. Tegally, E. Wilkinson, Y. Naidoo, C. Baxter, T. de Oliveira); Public Health Institute of Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi (L. Chabuka, C. Mitambo, R. Chitatanga, J. Bitilinyu- Bango, M. Chiwaula, Y. Chavula, M. Bukhu, H. Manda, M. Chitenje, I. Malolo, A. Mwanyongo, B. Mvula, M. Nyenje, M. Kagoli); University of Florida Emerging Pathogens Institute, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M. Tagliamonte, M. Salemi); Imperial College London, London, UK (C. Morgenstern, S. Bhatt); South African Medical Research Council Centre for Tuberculosis Research, Cape Town, South Africa (A. Sharma); University of Oxford, Oxford, UK (R. Inward, G.R. William Wint, M.U.G. Kraemer); Copenhagen University, Copenhagen, Denmark (S. Bhatt); Environmental Research Group Oxford, Oxford (G.R. WilliamWint); BlueDot, Toronto, Ontario, Canada (K. Khan); University of Toronto, Toronto (K. Khan, I.I. Bogoch); Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford (M.U.G. Kraemer); Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute at University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal (J. Lourenço); Kwazulu-Natal Research and Innovation Sequencing Platform, Durban, South Africa (R.J. Lessells, T. de Oliveira)
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Mavian CN, Tagliamonte MS, Alam MT, Sakib SN, Cash MN, Moir M, Jimenez JP, Riva A, Nelson EJ, Cato ET, Ajayakumar J, Louis R, Curtis A, De Rochars VMB, Rouzier V, Pape JW, de Oliveira T, Morris JG, Salemi M, Ali A. Ancestral Origin and Dissemination Dynamics of Reemerging Toxigenic Vibrio cholerae, Haiti. Emerg Infect Dis 2023; 29:2072-2082. [PMID: 37735743 PMCID: PMC10521621 DOI: 10.3201/eid2910.230554] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 09/23/2023] Open
Abstract
The 2010 cholera epidemic in Haiti was thought to have ended in 2019, and the Prime Minister of Haiti declared the country cholera-free in February 2022. On September 25, 2022, cholera cases were again identified in Port-au-Prince. We compared genomic data from 42 clinical Vibrio cholerae strains from 2022 with data from 327 other strains from Haiti and 1,824 strains collected worldwide. The 2022 isolates were homogeneous and closely related to clinical and environmental strains circulating in Haiti during 2012-2019. Bayesian hypothesis testing indicated that the 2022 clinical isolates shared their most recent common ancestor with an environmental lineage circulating in Haiti in July 2018. Our findings strongly suggest that toxigenic V. cholerae O1 can persist for years in aquatic environmental reservoirs and ignite new outbreaks. These results highlight the urgent need for improved public health infrastructure and possible periodic vaccination campaigns to maintain population immunity against V. cholerae.
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Affiliation(s)
- Carla N. Mavian
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
| | - Massimiliano S. Tagliamonte
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
| | - Meer T. Alam
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
| | - S. Nazmus Sakib
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
| | - Melanie N. Cash
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
| | - Monika Moir
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
| | - Juan Perez Jimenez
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
| | - Alberto Riva
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
| | - Eric J. Nelson
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
| | - Emilie T. Cato
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
| | - Jayakrishnan Ajayakumar
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
| | - Rigan Louis
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
| | - Andrew Curtis
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
| | - V. Madsen Beau De Rochars
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
| | - Vanessa Rouzier
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
| | - Jean William Pape
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
| | - Tulio de Oliveira
- University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (C.N. Mavian, M.S. Tagliamonte, M.T. Alam, S.N. Sakib, M.N. Cash, J.P. Jimenez, A. Riva, E.J. Nelson, E.T. Cato, R. Louis, V.M. Beau De Rochars, J.G. Morris Jr., M. Salemi, A. Ali)
- Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa (M. Moir, T. de Oliveira)
- Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland, Ohio, USA (J. Ajayakumar, A. Curtis)
- Les Centres GHESKIO, Port-au-Prince, Haiti (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, New York, USA (V. Rouzier, J.W. Pape)
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- Centre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), Durban, South Africa (T. de Oliveira)
- University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA (T. de Oliveira)
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