The impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on the future dynamics of endemic infections

Herd immunity to endemic diseases: Historical concepts and implications for public health policy

BACKGROUND

"Herd immunity" became a contested term during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the term "herd immunity" is often used to refer to thresholds at which some diseases can be eliminated (e.g., due to mass vaccination), the term has multiple referents. Different concepts of herd immunity have been relevant throughout the history of immunology and infectious disease epidemiology. For some diseases, herd immunity plays a role in the development of an endemic equilibrium, rather than elimination via threshold effects.

METHODS

We reviewed academic literature from 1920 to 2022, using historical and philosophical analysis to identify and develop relevant concepts of herd immunity.

RESULTS

This paper analyses the ambiguity surrounding the concept of herd immunity during the pandemic. We argue for the need to recapture a long-standing interpretation of this concept as one of the factors that leads to a dynamic endemic equilibrium between a host population and a mutating respiratory pathogen.

CONCLUSIONS

Informed by the history of infectious disease epidemiology, we argue that understanding the concept in this way will help us manage both SARS-CoV-2 and hundreds of other seasonal respiratory pathogens with which we live but which have been disrupted due to sustained public health measures/non-pharmaceutical interventions targeting SARS-CoV-2.

Changes in seasonal respiratory viral infections among pediatric population around the COVID-19 pandemic; 2019-2023

PURPOSE

This study aims to describe the prevalence and the fluctuations of respiratory viral infections among the pediatric population in a tertiary care center during 2019-2023, parallel with the COVID-19 pandemic, and the specific preventative measures applied in the region during this time.

METHODS

In this observational study, we extracted all respiratory virus PCR tests collected from pediatric patients (< 15 years old) between January 2019 and March 2023. Data on the positivity rate and prevalence of 18 respiratory viruses were presented over the study period.

RESULTS

The lowest rate for the studied respiratory viruses was observed in 2020/2021 (during the COVID-19 pandemic), followed by a gradual increase in positive cases in the 2021/2022 season. Timing (seasonality) was altered during 2022/2023 with an early circulation of respiratory viruses in May-June followed by an early start of the usual respiratory viruses' season in September, leading to prolonged respiratory virus activity. Most respiratory viruses were circulating at unprecedented levels during the 2022/2023 season, with rhinovirus/enterovirus being the most commonly detected virus in all seasons. Other viruses that had atypical activity after the COVID-19 pandemic were influenza A(H3) virus, adenovirus, and parainfluenza 3 virus.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrates the extended influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated community restriction measures on the timing and distribution of other respiratory viruses. Continuous monitoring of changes in the circulation of respiratory viruses is crucial for the success of related public health measures such as vaccination distributions and epidemic preparedness.

Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States

Influenza viruses continually evolve new antigenic variants, through mutations in epitopes of their major surface proteins, hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA). Antigenic drift potentiates the reinfection of previously infected individuals, but the contribution of this process to variability in annual epidemics is not well understood. Here we link influenza A(H3N2) virus evolution to regional epidemic dynamics in the United States during 1997-2019. We integrate phenotypic measures of HA antigenic drift and sequence-based measures of HA and NA fitness to infer antigenic and genetic distances between viruses circulating in successive seasons. We estimate the magnitude, severity, timing, transmission rate, age-specific patterns, and subtype dominance of each regional outbreak and find that genetic distance based on broad sets of epitope sites is the strongest evolutionary predictor of A(H3N2) virus epidemiology. Increased HA and NA epitope distance between seasons correlates with larger, more intense epidemics, higher transmission, greater A(H3N2) subtype dominance, and a greater proportion of cases in adults relative to children, consistent with increased population susceptibility. Based on random forest models, A(H1N1) incidence impacts A(H3N2) epidemics to a greater extent than viral evolution, suggesting that subtype interference is a major driver of influenza A virus infection dynamics, presumably via heterosubtypic cross-immunity. Impact statement: Antigenic drift in influenza's major surface proteins - hemagglutinin and neuraminidase - contributes to variability in epidemic magnitude across seasons but is less influential than subtype interference in shaping annual outbreaks.

Impacts of human mobility on the citywide transmission dynamics of 18 respiratory viruses in pre- and post-COVID-19 pandemic years

Many studies have used mobile device location data to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, yet relationships between mobility behavior and endemic respiratory pathogens are less understood. We studied the effects of population mobility on the transmission of 17 endemic viruses and SARS-CoV-2 in Seattle over a 4-year period, 2018-2022. Before 2020, visits to schools and daycares, within-city mixing, and visitor inflow preceded or coincided with seasonal outbreaks of endemic viruses. Pathogen circulation dropped substantially after the initiation of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in March 2020. During this period, mobility was a positive, leading indicator of transmission of all endemic viruses and lagging and negatively correlated with SARS-CoV-2 activity. Mobility was briefly predictive of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when restrictions relaxed but associations weakened in subsequent waves. The rebound of endemic viruses was heterogeneously timed but exhibited stronger, longer-lasting relationships with mobility than SARS-CoV-2. Overall, mobility is most predictive of respiratory virus transmission during periods of dramatic behavioral change and at the beginning of epidemic waves.

Safety and Immunogenicity of Bivalent RSVpreF Vaccine Coadministered With Seasonal Inactivated Influenza Vaccine in Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza are both typically seasonal diseases, with winter peaks in temperate climates. Coadministration of an RSV vaccine and influenza vaccine could be a benefit, requiring 1 rather than 2 visits to a healthcare provider for individuals receiving both vaccines.

METHODS

The primary immunogenicity objective of this phase 3, 1:1 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study in healthy adults aged ≥65 years in Australia was to demonstrate noninferiority of immune responses with coadministration of the stabilized RSV prefusion F protein-based vaccine (RSVpreF) and seasonal inactivated influenza vaccine (SIIV) versus SIIV or RSVpreF administered alone, using a 1.5-fold noninferiority margin (lower bound 95% confidence interval >.667). Safety and tolerability were evaluated by collecting reactogenicity and adverse event data.

RESULTS

Of 1403 participants randomized, 1399 received vaccinations (median age, 70; range, 65‒91 years). Local reactions and systemic events were mostly mild or moderate when RSVpreF was coadministered with SIIV or administered alone. No vaccine-related serious adverse events were reported. Geometric mean ratios were 0.86 for RSV-A and 0.85 for RSV-B neutralizing titers at 1 month after RSVpreF administration and 0.77 to 0.90 for strain-specific hemagglutination inhibition assay titers at 1 month after SIIV. All comparisons achieved the prespecified 1.5-fold noninferiority margin.

CONCLUSIONS

The primary study objectives were met, demonstrating noninferiority of RSVpreF and SIIV immune responses when RSVpreF was coadministered with SIIV and that RSVpreF had an acceptable safety and tolerability profile when coadministered with SIIV. The results of this study support coadministration of RSVpreF and SIIV in an older-adult population.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05301322.

Sequence analysis of respiratory syncytial virus cases reveals a novel subgroup -B strain circulating in north-central Italy after pandemic restrictions

BACKGROUND

Following the pandemic restrictions, the epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) has changed, leading to intense hospitalization peaks.

OBJECTIVES

This study, conducted at multiple sites in Italy, aimed to describe the temporal dynamics of two post-COVID-19 RSV epidemics. Additionally, the circulating RSV-A and -B lineages were characterized and compared to those found in 2018 and 2019.

STUDY DESIGN

Respiratory specimens and data were collected from RSV-positive patients, both inpatients, and outpatients, of all ages at three sites in north-central Italy. To analyze these samples, roughly one-sixth were sequenced in the attachment glycoprotein G gene and subjected to phylogenetic and mutational analyses, including pre-pandemic sequences from north-central Italy.

RESULTS

The first post-pandemic surge of RSV cases was quite intense, occurring from October 2021 to early January 2022. The subsequent RSV epidemic (from November 2022 to early March 2023) also had a high impact, characterized by a rise in elderly patient cases. Post-pandemic cases of RSV-A were caused by various strains present in Italy prior to COVID-19. In contrast, a distinct RSV-B lineage, which was concurrently spreading in other countries, was identified as the main cause of the surge in 2022-2023 but remained undetected in Italy before the pandemic.

CONCLUSIONS

This study describes the temporal dynamics of post-pandemic RSV subgroups and uncovers a lineage of RSV-B with high genetic divergence that may have increased the impact of decreased population immunity.

RSV Severe Infection Risk Stratification in a French 5-Year Birth Cohort Using Machine-learning

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) poses a substantial threat to infants, often leading to challenges in hospital capacity. With recent pharmaceutical developments to be used during the prenatal and perinatal periods aimed at decreasing the RSV burden, there is a pressing need to identify infants at risk of severe disease. We aimed to stratify the risk of developing a clinically severe RSV infection in infants under 1 year of age.

METHODS

This retrospective observational study was conducted at the Hospices Civils de Lyon, France, involving infants born between 2014 and 2018. This study focused on infants hospitalized with severe and very severe acute lower respiratory tract infections associated with RSV (SARI-WI group). Data collection included perinatal information and clinical data, with machine-learning algorithms used to discriminate SARI-WI cases from nonhospitalized infants.

RESULTS

Of 42,069 infants, 555 developed SARI-WI. Infants born in November were very likely (>80%) predicted SARI-WI. Infants born in October were very likely predicted SARI-WI except for births at term by vaginal delivery and without siblings. Infants were very unlikely (<10%) predicted SARI-WI when all the following conditions were met: born in other months, at term, by vaginal delivery and without siblings. Other infants were possibly (10-30%) or probably (30-80%) predicted SARI-WI.

CONCLUSIONS

Although RSV preventive measures are vital for all infants, and specific recommendations exist for patients with high-risk comorbidities, in situations where prioritization becomes necessary, infants born just before or within the early weeks of the epidemic should be considered as a risk group.

The Changing Landscape of Respiratory Viruses Contributing to Hospitalizations in Quebec, Canada: Results From an Active Hospital-Based Surveillance Study

BACKGROUND

A comprehensive description of the combined effect of SARS-CoV-2 and respiratory viruses other than SARS-CoV-2 (ORVs) on acute respiratory infection (ARI) hospitalizations is lacking.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare the viral etiology of ARI hospitalizations before the pandemic (8 prepandemic influenza seasons, 2012-13 to 2019-20) and during 3 pandemic years (periods of increased SARS-CoV-2 and ORV circulation in 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23) from an active hospital-based surveillance network in Quebec, Canada.

METHODS

We compared the detection of ORVs and SARS-CoV-2 during 3 pandemic years to that in 8 prepandemic influenza seasons among patients hospitalized with ARI who were tested systematically by the same multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assay during periods of intense respiratory virus (RV) circulation. The proportions of infections between prepandemic and pandemic years were compared by using appropriate statistical tests.

RESULTS

During prepandemic influenza seasons, overall RV detection was 92.7% (1384/1493) (respiratory syncytial virus [RSV]: 721/1493, 48.3%; coinfections: 456/1493, 30.5%) in children (<18 years) and 62.8% (2723/4339) (influenza: 1742/4339, 40.1%; coinfections: 264/4339, 6.1%) in adults. Overall RV detection in children was lower during pandemic years but increased from 58.6% (17/29) in 2020-21 (all ORVs; coinfections: 7/29, 24.1%) to 90.3% (308/341) in 2021-22 (ORVs: 278/341, 82%; SARS-CoV-2: 30/341, 8.8%; coinfections: 110/341, 32.3%) and 88.9% (361/406) in 2022-23 (ORVs: 339/406, 84%; SARS-CoV-2: 22/406, 5.4%; coinfections: 128/406, 31.5%). In adults, overall RV detection was also lower during pandemic years but increased from 43.7% (333/762) in 2020-21 (ORVs: 26/762, 3.4%; SARS-CoV-2: 307/762, 40.3%; coinfections: 7/762, 0.9%) to 57.8% (731/1265) in 2021-22 (ORVs: 179/1265, 14.2%; SARS-CoV-2: 552/1265, 43.6%; coinfections: 42/1265, 3.3%) and 50.1% (746/1488) in 2022-23 (ORVs: 409/1488, 27.5%; SARS-CoV-2: 337/1488, 22.6%; coinfections: 36/1488, 2.4%). No influenza or RSV was detected in 2020-21; however, their detection increased in the 2 subsequent years but did not reach prepandemic levels. Compared to the prepandemic period, the peaks of RSV hospitalization shifted in 2021-22 (16 weeks earlier) and 2022-23 (15 weeks earlier). Moreover, the peaks of influenza hospitalization shifted in 2021-22 (17 weeks later) and 2022-23 (4 weeks earlier). Age distribution was different compared to the prepandemic period, especially during the first pandemic year.

CONCLUSIONS

Significant shifts in viral etiology, seasonality, and age distribution of ARI hospitalizations occurred during the 3 pandemic years. Changes in age distribution observed in our study may reflect modifications in the landscape of circulating RVs and their contribution to ARI hospitalizations. During the pandemic period, SARS-CoV-2 had a low contribution to pediatric ARI hospitalizations, while it was the main contributor to adult ARI hospitalizations during the first 2 seasons and dropped below ORVs during the third pandemic season. Evolving RVs epidemiology underscores the need for increased scrutiny of ARI hospitalization etiology to inform tailored public health recommendations.

The increase of bronchiolitis severity in the 2022-2023 season in an Italian tertiary children's hospital: An isolated phenomenon or a warning sign?

AIM

Recent literature has shown epidemiological changes in bronchiolitis with an increased incidence in the post-SARS-CoV-2 pandemic period but reports regarding disease severity are conflicting. We aimed to describe the epidemiology, disease severity, and microbiology of bronchiolitis during the 2022-2023 cold season compared to the previous 5 years.

METHODS

This single-center retrospective observational study at IRCCS Gaslini, Italy, included all children aged 0-2 years hospitalized for bronchiolitis from 1 September 2017 to 31 August 2023. Findings from the 2022-2023 season were compared to the previous 5 years.

RESULTS

We observed a statistically significant increase in the 2022-2023 season in the absolute number of bronchiolitis admissions. Children who required mechanical ventilation (MV) dramatically increased from a total of seven patients in the previous five seasons to 17 in the 2022-2023 season alone (p = .001). All other severity parameters significantly increased: the need for respiratory support (p = .002), the median length of stay (5 days vs. 4 days, p = .001), and the median duration of respiratory support (4 days vs. 3 days, p = .016).

CONCLUSIONS

We report a substantial increase in the severity of bronchiolitis in the season 2022-2023 with a remarkable number of previously healthy infants requiring MV. Further studies are needed to confirm whether our findings are an isolated phenomenon or part of a true global trend. Health systems need to be prepared and protective preventive measures should be implemented for all newborns.

Global Seasonal Activities of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Before the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: A Systematic Review

Varied seasonal patterns of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) have been reported worldwide. We conducted a systematic review on articles identified in PubMed reporting RSV seasonality based on data collected before 1 January 2020. RSV seasonal patterns were examined by geographic location, calendar month, analytic method, and meteorological factors including temperature and absolute humidity. Correlation and regression analyses were conducted to explore the relationship between RSV seasonality and study methods and characteristics of study locations. RSV seasons were reported in 209 articles published in 1973-2023 for 317 locations in 77 countries. Regular RSV seasons were similarly reported in countries in temperate regions, with highly variable seasons identified in subtropical and tropical countries. Longer durations of RSV seasons were associated with a higher daily average mean temperature and daily average mean absolute humidity. The global seasonal patterns of RSV provided important information for optimizing interventions against RSV infection.

Viral etiology of severe lower respiratory tract infections in SARS-CoV-2 negative hospitalized patients during the COVID-19 pandemic in Kuwait

Background

The prevalence of respiratory infections is largely underexplored in Kuwait. The aim of our study is to determine the etiology of infections from patients who are SARS-CoV-2 negative hospitalized with severe lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in Kuwait during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Methods

We conducted an observational cross-sectional study among severe LRTI patients between September 2021 and March 2022. Respiratory samples from 545 non-COVID-19 severe LRTIs patients were prospectively evaluated with FTD Respiratory 21 Plus® real-time PCR, targeting 20 different viruses and 1 atypical bacterial pathogen.

Results

Among all 545 hospitalized cases, 411 (75.4 %) tested positive for at least one respiratory pathogen. The most common were rhinovirus (HRV) (32.7 %), respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) (20.9 %), metapneumovirus (HMPV) (14.1 %), bocavirus (13.2 %), and influenza A (12.7 %). The proportion of pathogens detected was highest in the under-5 age group, while HKU1 (44.4 %) predominated in the elderly (>50 years).

Conclusion

Our study reveals a high prevalence of respiratory viruses in severe acute lower respiratory tract infections among non-COVID-19 hospitalized patients in Kuwait. HRV remains the main etiology affecting the country, particularly in infants. These results underscore the necessity of employing multiplex PCR for accurate diagnosis and describing the epidemiology of infections among severe lower respiratory tract infections. This will facilitate the use of specific antiviral therapy and help avoid excessive or inappropriate antibiotic therapy.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

Epidemiology of respiratory syncytial virus in a large pediatric hospital in Central Italy and development of a forecasting model to predict the seasonal peak

BACKGROUND

Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is responsible for the majority of acute lower respiratory infections in infants and can affect also older age groups. Restrictions linked to the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and their subsequent lifting caused a change in the dynamics of RSV circulation. It is therefore fundamental to monitor RSV seasonal trends and to be able to predict its seasonal peak to be prepared to the next RSV epidemics.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective descriptive study on laboratory-confirmed RSV infections from Bambino Gesù Children's Hospital in Rome from 1st January 2018 to 31st December 2022. Data on RSV-positive respiratory samples (n = 3,536) and RSV-confirmed hospitalizations (n = 1,895) on patients aged 0-18 years were analyzed. In addition to this, a SARIMA (Seasonal AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) forecasting model was developed to predict the next peak of RSV.

RESULTS

Findings show that, after the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 pandemic season, where RSV circulation was almost absent, RSV infections presented with an increased and anticipated peak compared to pre-pandemic seasons. While mostly targeting infants below 1 year of age, there was a proportional increase in RSV infections and hospitalizations in older age groups in the post-pandemic period. A forecasting model built using RSV weekly data from 2018 to 2022 predicted the RSV peaks of 2023, showing a reasonable level of accuracy (MAPE 33%). Additional analysis indicated that the peak of RSV cases is expected to be reached after 4-5 weeks from case doubling.

CONCLUSION

Our study provides epidemiological evidence on the dynamics of RSV circulation before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings highlight the potential of combining surveillance and forecasting to promote preparedness for the next RSV epidemics.

Impact of COVID-19 Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections in Hospitalized Children

BACKGROUND

Nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) targeted at SARS-CoV-2 have remarkably affected the circulation of other respiratory pathogens, including respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). This study aimed to assess the changes in epidemiological and clinical characteristics of RSV infections in hospitalized children before and during the pandemic in Suzhou, China.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled children aged < 18 years who were hospitalized in Soochow University Affiliated Children's Hospital with acute lower respiratory infection (ALRIs) from January 2018 to July 2022. Changes in epidemiological and clinical characteristics of RSV infections were analyzed.

RESULTS

Compared with the same period in 2018-2019, the difference in the overall positive rate of RSV was not statistically significant in 2020, while it increased significantly in 2021 (11.8% [662/5621] vs. 20.8% [356/1711], p < 0.001) and 2022 (9.0% [308/3406] vs. 18.9% [129/684], p < 0.001). Specifically, the positive rates declined considerably from October to December 2020 but sharply increased during the summer of 2021. Compared to prepandemic period, RSV infections were more frequently observed in older children during the pandemic. RSV-positive children exhibited milder clinical characteristics during the COVID-19 pandemic, including decreased proportion of patients with hospital stay ≥ 11 days (10.3% vs. 6.7%, p < 0.05), less requirement for oxygen therapy (13.7% vs. 6.9%, p < 0.001), and fewer cases of polypnea (12.2% vs. 9.7%, p < 0.05) and wheeze (50.1% vs. 42.9%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The implementation of multilayered NPIs targeted at COVID-19 has affected the activity of RSV. Ongoing monitoring of RSV is warranted as the changing RSV epidemiology can provide valuable insights for future healthcare system planning.

The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on community non-SARS-CoV-2 respiratory infections in preschool children

BACKGROUND

Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions during the pandemic were mainly studied for severe outcomes. Among children, most of the burden of respiratory infections is related to infections which are not medically attended. The perspective on infections in the community setting is necessary to understand the effects of the pandemic on non-pharmaceutical interventions.

METHODS

In the unique prospective LoewenKIDS cohort study, we compared the true monthly incidence of self-reported acute respiratory infections (ARI) in about 350 participants (aged 3-4 years old) between October 2019 to March 2020 (pre-pandemic period) and October 2020 to March 2021 (pandemic period). Parents reported children's symptoms using a diary. Parents were asked to take a nasal swab of their child during all respiratory symptoms. We analysed 718 swabs using Multiplex PCR for 25 common respiratory viruses and bacteria.

RESULTS

During the pre-pandemic period, on average 44.6% (95% CI: 39.5-49.8%) of children acquired at least one ARI per month compared to 19.9% (95% CI: 11.1-28.7%) during the pandemic period (Incidence Rate Ratio = 0.47; 95% CI: 0.41-0.54). The detection of influenza virus decreased absolute by 96%, respiratory syncytial virus by 65%, metapneumovirus by 95%, parainfluenza virus by 100%, human enterovirus by 96% and human bocavirus by 70% when comparing the pre-pandemic to the pandemic period. However, rhinoviruses were nearly unaffected by NPI. Co-detection (detection of more than one virus in a single symptomatic swab) was common in the pre-pandemic period (222 of 390 samples with viral detection; 56.9%) and substantially less common during the pandemic period (46 of 216 samples; 21.3%).

CONCLUSION

Non-pharmaceutical interventions strongly reduced the incidence of all respiratory infections in preschool children but did not affect rhinovirus.

Respiratory Syncytial Virus Hospital-Based Burden of Disease in Children Younger Than 5 Years, 2015-2022

Importance

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) resurgences have been noted following the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. Recent findings suggest that the 2021 and 2022 RSV seasons were more severe than in past seasons, and age distribution may have shifted toward older children in the younger than 5 years age group.

Objectives

To estimate age-specific changes in RSV hospital-based burden of disease before and after the COVID-19 pandemic and to compare incidence by Medicaid use.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This retrospective cohort study included children younger than 5 years diagnosed with RSV and bronchiolitis at 50 US children's hospitals in 10 US geographic regions. The included participants had an encounter in intensive care, inpatient, emergency, or observational units, between June 1, 2015, and March 31, 2023.

Exposures

Diagnosis of RSV, bronchiolitis, or both at encounter.

Main Outcome and Measures

Incidence rate ratio of hospital use within each care unit before vs after the COVID-19 pandemic. It was hypothesized a priori that incidence of hospital use would increase overall in 2021 and 2022 compared with 2015 to 2019 and that the increase would be greater among children 12 months and older.

Results

Of 924 061 study participants (median [IQR] age, 8 (5-16) months; 535 619 [58.0%] male), 348 077 (37.7%) were diagnosed with RSV. Of these, 187 850 (54.0%) were hospitalized. Incidence rate ratios of hospitalization increased for all ages in 2021 and 2022 compared with 2015 to 2019. Children aged 24 to 59 months were 4.86 (95% CI, 4.75-4.98) times as likely to be hospitalized in 2022 compared with 2015 to 2019, whereas infants aged 0 to 5 months were 1.77 (95% CI, 1.74-1.80) times as likely. Medicaid patients were more likely to be hospitalized than non-Medicaid patients regardless of year.

Conclusions and Relevance

Hospitalizations for RSV and bronchiolitis demonstrated atypical seasonality in 2021 and 2022, with an overall increase in RSV encounters. Postpandemic RSV hospitalization increased for all ages, but especially among older children, whereas bronchiolitis hospitalization was decreased or unchanged compared with earlier seasons. These findings suggest some of the observed increase in RSV hospital use may be due to increased testing.

Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020-30: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

There have been declines in global immunisation coverage due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery has begun but is geographically variable. This disruption has led to under-immunised cohorts and interrupted progress in reducing vaccine-preventable disease burden. There have, so far, been few studies of the effects of coverage disruption on vaccine effects. We aimed to quantify the effects of vaccine-coverage disruption on routine and campaign immunisation services, identify cohorts and regions that could particularly benefit from catch-up activities, and establish if losses in effect could be recovered.

METHODS

For this modelling study, we used modelling groups from the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from 112 low-income and middle-income countries to estimate vaccine effect for 14 pathogens. One set of modelling estimates used vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2021 for a subset of vaccine-preventable, outbreak-prone or priority diseases (ie, measles, rubella, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus [HPV], meningitis A, and yellow fever) to examine mitigation measures, hereafter referred to as recovery runs. The second set of estimates were conducted with vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2020, used to calculate effect ratios (ie, the burden averted per dose) for all 14 included vaccines and diseases, hereafter referred to as full runs. Both runs were modelled from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2100. Countries were included if they were in the Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance portfolio; had notable burden; or had notable strategic vaccination activities. These countries represented the majority of global vaccine-preventable disease burden. Vaccine coverage was informed by historical estimates from WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage and the immunisation repository of WHO for data up to and including 2021. From 2022 onwards, we estimated coverage on the basis of guidance about campaign frequency, non-linear assumptions about the recovery of routine immunisation to pre-disruption magnitude, and 2030 endpoints informed by the WHO Immunization Agenda 2030 aims and expert consultation. We examined three main scenarios: no disruption, baseline recovery, and baseline recovery and catch-up.

FINDINGS

We estimated that disruption to measles, rubella, HPV, hepatitis B, meningitis A, and yellow fever vaccination could lead to 49 119 additional deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 17 248-134 941) during calendar years 2020-30, largely due to measles. For years of vaccination 2020-30 for all 14 pathogens, disruption could lead to a 2·66% (95% CrI 2·52-2·81) reduction in long-term effect from 37 378 194 deaths averted (34 450 249-40 241 202) to 36 410 559 deaths averted (33 515 397-39 241 799). We estimated that catch-up activities could avert 78·9% (40·4-151·4) of excess deaths between calendar years 2023 and 2030 (ie, 18 900 [7037-60 223] of 25 356 [9859-75 073]).

INTERPRETATION

Our results highlight the importance of the timing of catch-up activities, considering estimated burden to improve vaccine coverage in affected cohorts. We estimated that mitigation measures for measles and yellow fever were particularly effective at reducing excess burden in the short term. Additionally, the high long-term effect of HPV vaccine as an important cervical-cancer prevention tool warrants continued immunisation efforts after disruption.

FUNDING

The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium, funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Arabic, Chinese, French, Portguese and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Bronchiolitis 2022-2023: One of the most unexpected outbreaks over this past decade, Nouvelle-Aquitaine, France

BACKGROUND

Since the Covid-19 pandemic, bronchiolitis outbreaks have been subject to disrupted seasonality, and a major impact on the healthcare system was observed in 2022-23.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this article is to describe the characteristics of the 2022-23 bronchiolitis epidemic in the Nouvelle-Aquitaine region, and its impact on the healthcare system.

METHOD

We described the indicators of dynamics, intensity, severity and impact provided by the bronchiolitis monitoring in place, and compared these with those from previous seasons.

RESULTS

The intensity of the 2022-23 epidemic (emergency department visits: 23 %; SOS Médecins acts: 15 %), and its impact in terms of bronchiolitis-related hospitalizations (45 %) were higher than in previous seasons (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

In addition to earliness, the 2022-23 bronchiolitis epidemic was significant as regards its exceptional scale and major impact on the hospital system, requiring adaptation of the preexisting healthcare offer in response to the anticipated demand.

Resurgence of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in the Summer of 2021 in Denmark-a Large out-of-season Epidemic Affecting Older Children

Background

When coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) restrictions were lifted in Denmark in the spring of 2021, a surge in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cases followed, causing a large out-of-season epidemic. This study aims to investigate the summer epidemic compared with 3 typical pre-COVID-19 RSV winter seasons using Danish registers to identify RSV cases, RSV-related admissions, and use of intensive care treatment.

Methods

Incidence rates (IR) per 1000 person-years for RSV cases, RSV-related admissions, and intensive care treatment were calculated with 95% confidence interval (CI) for each season, stratified by age groups and incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% CI were calculated to compare the summer epidemic with the winter season for 2019-2020.

Results

In the summer epidemic, the IR of RSV cases and admissions exceeded previous winter seasons for all age groups. The highest increases in IRs were seen among children aged 2 to 3 years and 4 to 5 years. The IRR of cases were 4.6 (95% CI, 4.1-5.2) and 3.3 (2.6-4.2) and the IRR of admissions were 3.3 (2.7-4.2) and 3.8 (2.3-6.5) in the 2 age groups, respectively, when compared with the winter season 2019-2020.

Conclusions

Likely because of immunity debt following COVID-19 restrictions, the summer epidemic was significantly larger than previous winter seasons, most markedly among children aged 2 to 3 and 4 to 5 years but had a similar disease severity spectrum.

Predicting the impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention on short- and medium-term dynamics of enterovirus D68 in the US

Recent outbreaks of enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) infections, and their causal linkage with acute flaccid myelitis (AFM), continue to pose a serious public health concern. During 2020 and 2021, the dynamics of EV-D68 and other pathogens have been significantly perturbed by non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19; this perturbation presents a powerful natural experiment for exploring the dynamics of these endemic infections. In this study, we analyzed publicly available data on EV-D68 infections, originally collected through the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, to predict their short- and long-term dynamics following the COVID-19 interventions. Although long-term predictions are sensitive to our assumptions about underlying dynamics and changes in contact rates during the NPI periods, the likelihood of a large outbreak in 2023 appears to be low. Comprehensive surveillance data are needed to accurately characterize future dynamics of EV-D68. The limited incidence of AFM cases in 2022, despite large EV-D68 outbreaks, poses further questions for the timing of the next AFM outbreaks.

The role of viral interference in shaping RSV epidemics following the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) primarily affects infants, young children, and older adults, with seasonal outbreaks in the United States (US) peaking around December or January. Despite the limited implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, disrupted RSV activity was observed in different countries following the 2009 influenza pandemic, suggesting possible viral interference from influenza. Although interactions between the influenza A/H1N1 pandemic virus and RSV have been demonstrated at an individual level, it remains unclear whether the disruption of RSV activity at the population level can be attributed to viral interference. In this work, we first evaluated changes in the timing and intensity of RSV activity across 10 regions of the US in the years following the 2009 influenza pandemic using dynamic time warping. We observed a reduction in RSV activity following the pandemic, which was associated with intensity of influenza activity in the region. We then developed an age-stratified, two-pathogen model to examine various hypotheses regarding viral interference mechanisms. Based on our model estimates, we identified three mechanisms through which influenza infections could interfere with RSV: 1) reducing susceptibility to RSV coinfection; 2) shortening the RSV infectious period in coinfected individuals; and 3) reducing RSV infectivity in coinfection. Our study offers statistical support for the occurrence of atypical RSV seasons following the 2009 influenza pandemic. Our work also offers new insights into the mechanisms of viral interference that contribute to disruptions in RSV epidemics and provides a model-fitting framework that enables the analysis of new surveillance data for studying viral interference at the population level.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection in the Neonatal Period

OBJECTIVE

 Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common viral respiratory infection in infants. This study aimed to establish the potential changes in the clinical course of RSV in the neonatal period with the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) pandemic.

STUDY DESIGN

 During the observational study period, newborns diagnosed with community-acquired RSV infection and admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) were evaluated. RSV-infected neonates before the COVID-19 pandemic were classified as Group 1, those during the strict isolation period as Group 2, and RSV-infected newborns after the removal of restrictions were classified as Group 3.

RESULTS

 A total of 208 community-acquired RSV-infected neonates were analyzed. The median age at admission to the NICU was 26 days, and the mean gestational week was 37.2 ± 2.7. The ratio of hospitalized babies with RSV infection to all hospitalized newborns rose after the pandemic significantly (1.9, 1.6, 5.2%; p < 0.001). Following the pandemic, there was an increase in full-term, early-term, and late-preterm cases. Nevertheless, no change was observed in the number of preterm cases (p > 0.05). There was also a statistically significant increase in the need for intubation, noninvasive ventilation (NIV), supplemental oxygen, inhaled bronchodilator drugs, and length of hospital stay in Group 3 after the pandemic (p < 0.001). All these parameters related to more severe RSV infection when the precautions were removed, while there was a milder disease with restrictions during the pandemic in Group 2 (p < 0.001). However, none died due to RSV infection during the study because of timely supportive care.

CONCLUSION

 Following the COVID-19 pandemic, the frequency and severity of RSV infection in newborns have increased, and it can result in a serious clinical picture even in full-term babies with no comorbidities. Attention to strict contact precautions, particularly in newborns, who are a more vulnerable population after the pandemic, may play an important role in any future outbreak.

KEY POINTS

· The course of neonatal RSV infection has changed after the pandemic.. · A statistically significant increase was observed in the need of intubation in newborns with RSV.. · The strict precautions during the pandemic also helped to prevent the transmission of RSV..

Infants Receiving a Single Dose of Nirsevimab to Prevent RSV Do Not Have Evidence of Enhanced Disease in Their Second RSV Season

To characterize nirsevimab in the prevention of RSV, children from the Phase 3 MELODY trial were followed through their second RSV season. No increase in medically attended RSV lower respiratory tract infections or evidence of antibody-dependent enhancement of infection or disease severity was found for nirsevimab vs placebo recipients. Clinical Trial Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT03979313, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03979313.

Prevalence of human respiratory pathogens and associated mucosal cytokine levels in young children and adults: a cross-sectional observational study in the Netherlands during the winter of 2012/2013

Respiratory pathogens can cause severe disease and even death, especially in the very young and very old. Studies investigating their prevalence often focus on individuals presenting to healthcare providers with symptoms. However, the design of prevention strategies, e.g. which target groups to vaccinate, will benefit from knowledge on the prevalence of, risk factors for and host response to these pathogens in the general population. In this study, upper respiratory samples (n = 1311) were collected cross-sectionally during winter from 11- and 24-month old children, their parents, and adults ≥60 years of age that were recruited irrespective of seeking medical care. Almost all children, approximately two-thirds of parents and a quarter of older adults tested positive for at least one pathogen, often in the absence of symptoms. Viral interference was evident for the combination of rhinovirus and respiratory syncytial virus. Attending childcare facilities and having siblings associated with increased pathogen counts in children. On average, children showed increased levels of mucosal cytokines compared to parents and especially proinflammatory molecules associated with the presence of symptoms. These findings may guide further research into transmission patterns of respiratory pathogens and assist in determining the most appropriate strategies for the prediction and prevention of disease.

Heterogeneity of influenza infection at precise scale in Yinchuan, Northwest China, 2012-2022: evidence from Joinpoint regression and spatiotemporal analysis

Identifying high-risk regions and turning points of influenza with a precise spatiotemporal scale may provide effective prevention strategies. In this study, epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal clustering analysis at the township level were performed. A descriptive study and a Joinpoint regression analysis were used to explore the epidemiological characteristics and the time trend of influenza. Spatiotemporal autocorrelation and clustering analyses were carried out to explore the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and aggregation. Furthermore, the hotspot regions were analyzed by spatiotemporal scan analysis. A total of 4025 influenza cases were reported in Yinchuan showing an overall increasing trend. The tendency of influenza in Yinchuan consisted of three stages: increased from 2012 to the first peak in 2019 (32.62/100,000) with a slight decrease in 2016; during 2019 and 2020, the trend was downwards; then it increased sharply again and reached another peak in 2022. The Joinpoint regression analysis found that there were three turning points from January 2012 to December 2022, namely January 2020, April 2020, and February 2022. The children under ten displayed an upward trend and were statistically significant. The trend surface analysis indicated that there was a shifting trend from northern to central and southern. A significant positive spatial auto-correlation was observed at the township level and four high-incidence clusters of influenza were detected. These results suggested that children under 10 years old deserve more attention and the spatiotemporal distribution of high-risk regions of influenza in Yinchuan varies every year at the township level. Thus, more monitoring and resource allocation should be prone to the four high-incidence clusters, which may benefit the public health authorities to carry out the vaccination and health promotion timely.

Contribution of Infant Rhinovirus Bronchiolitis to Hospital Bed and Ventilation Use

This cohort study compares the use of hospital resources related to human rhinovirus and respiratory syncytial virus infections among infants during 3 consecutive seasons before nirsevimab implementation.

Old foes following news ways?-Pandemic-related changes in the epidemiology of viral respiratory tract infections

INTRODUCTION

Following lockdown periods and restricting public health measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, respiratory tract infections (RTIs) rose significantly worldwide. This led to an increased burden on children's hospitals compromising medical care of acutely and chronically ill children. We characterized changes in the epidemiological pattern of circulating respiratory viral infections.

METHODS

We assessed the number of patients with RTIs and the annual distribution of virus detections between 2019 and 2022 based on 4809 clinical samples (4131 patients) from a German pediatric tertiary care-center. We investigated the impact of lockdown periods on spectra of circulating respiratory viruses, pattern of coinfections, age, and seasonality of infections.

RESULTS

A fourfold increase in the number of respiratory virus detections was observed in 2022 vs 2019 with numbers doubling in 2022 (vs 2021). In 2022, seasonal patterns of circulating virus, particularly Adeno and seasonal Coronavirus were far less pronounced compared to previous years, in fact almost disappeared for Rhinoviruses.". SARS-CoV-2, Parainfluenza- and human Metapneumovirus detections increased significantly in 2022 (2019 vs 2022, p < 0.01). Coinfections with multiple viruses occurred more frequently since 2021 compared to pre-pandemic years, especially in younger children (2019 vs 2022, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Compared to pre-pandemic years, we observed a dramatic increase in pediatric RTIs with an incrementing spectrum of viruses and a predominance in Rhino/Enterovirus infections - leading to a high rate of hospital admissions, particularly in conjunction with other viruses. This caused an acute shortage in medical care and may also be followed by an increase of virus-triggered secondary chronic respiratory diseases like asthma-rendering a burden on the health system.

UbiNAAT: a multiplexed point-of-care nucleic acid diagnostic platform for rapid at-home pathogen detection

The COVID-19 pandemic increased demands for respiratory disease testing to facilitate treatment and limit transmission, demonstrating in the process that most existing test options were too complex and expensive to perform in point-of-care or home scenarios. Lab-based molecular techniques can detect viral RNA in respiratory illnesses but are expensive and require trained personnel, while affordable antigen-based home tests lack sensitivity for early detection in newly infected or asymptomatic individuals. The few home RNA detection tests deployed were prohibitively expensive. Here, we demonstrate a point-of-care, paper-based rapid analysis device that simultaneously detects multiple viral RNAs; it is demonstrated on two common respiratory viruses (COVID-19 and influenza A) spiked onto a commercial nasal swab. The automated device requires no sample preparation by the user after insertion of the swab, minimizing user operation steps. We incorporated lyophilized amplification reagents immobilized in a porous matrix, a novel thermally actuated valve for multiplexed fluidic control, a printed circuit board that performs on-device lysis and amplification within a cell-phone-sized disposable device. Reverse transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP) products are visualized via fluorescent dyes using a modified cell phone, resulting in detection of as few as 104 viral copies per swab across both pathogens within 30 minutes. This integrated platform could be commercialized in a form that would be inexpensive, portable, and sensitive; it can readily be multiplexed to detect as many as 8 different RNA or DNA sequences, and adapted to any desired RNA or DNA detection assays.

Humoral profiles of toddlers and young children following SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination

Although young children generally experience mild symptoms following infection with SARS-CoV-2, severe acute and long-term complications can occur. SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines elicit robust immunoglobulin profiles in children ages 5 years and older, and in adults, corresponding with substantial protection against hospitalizations and severe disease. Whether similar immune responses and humoral protection can be observed in vaccinated infants and young children, who have a developing and vulnerable immune system, remains poorly understood. To study the impact of mRNA vaccination on the humoral immunity of infant, we use a system serology approach to comprehensively profile antibody responses in a cohort of children ages 6 months to 5 years who were vaccinated with the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine (25 μg). Responses are compared with vaccinated adults (100 μg), in addition to naturally infected toddlers and young children. Despite their lower vaccine dose, vaccinated toddlers elicit a functional antibody response as strong as adults, with higher antibody-dependent phagocytosis compared to adults, without report of side effects. Moreover, mRNA vaccination is associated with a higher IgG3-dependent humoral profile against SARS-CoV-2 compared to natural infection, supporting that mRNA vaccination is effective at eliciting a robust antibody response in toddlers and young children.

Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation

During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons. From measurements of antibody levels from serum samples collected each year from 2017 to 2021, we show that the rate of waning of antibody titres against influenza virus during the pandemic was smaller than assumed in predictive models. Taken together, these results partially explain why the re-emergence of seasonal influenza virus epidemics was less dramatic than anticipated and suggest that influenza virus epidemic dynamics are not currently amenable to multi-season prediction.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on prescription drug use and costs in British Columbia: a retrospective interrupted time series study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on prescription drug use and costs.

DESIGN

Interrupted time series analysis of comprehensive administrative health data linkages in British Columbia, Canada, from 1 January 2018 to 28 March 2021.

SETTING

Retrospective population-based analysis of all prescription drugs dispensed in community pharmacies and outpatient hospital pharmacies and irrespective of the drug insurance payer.

PARTICIPANTS

Between 4.30 and 4.37 million individuals (52% women) actively registered with the publicly funded medical services plan.

INTERVENTION

COVID-19 pandemic and associated mitigation measures.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Weekly dispensing rates and costs, both overall and stratified by therapeutic groups and pharmacological subgroups, before and after the declaration of the public health emergency related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Relative changes in post-COVID-19 outcomes were expressed as ratios of observed to expected rates.

RESULTS

After the onset of the pandemic and subsequent COVID-19 mitigation measures, overall medication dispensing rates dropped by 2.4% (p<0.01), followed by a sustained weekly increase to return to predicted levels by the end of January 2021. We observed abrupt level decreases in antibacterials (30.3%, p<0.01) and antivirals (22.4%, p<0.01) that remained below counterfactuals over the first year of the pandemic. In contrast, there was a week-to-week trend increase in nervous system drugs, yielding an overall increase of 7.3% (p<0.01). No trend changes in the dispensing of respiratory system agents, ACE inhibitors, antidiabetic drugs and antidepressants were detected.

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 pandemic impact on prescription drug dispensing was heterogeneous across medication subgroups. As data become available, dispensing trends in nervous system agents, antibiotics and antivirals warrant further monitoring and investigation.

Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 outbreak on hepatitis B and forecasting the epidemiological trend in mainland China: a causal analysis

BACKGROUND

It is uncertain how COVID-19 outbreak influences the hepatitis B epidemics. This study aims to evaluate the effects on hepatitis B owing to the COVID-19 outbreak and forecast the hepatitis B epidemiological trend in mainland China to speed up the course of the "End viral hepatitis Strategy".

METHODS

We estimated the causal impacts and created a forecast through adopting monthly notifications of hepatitis B each year from 2005 to 2020 in mainland China using the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method.

RESULTS

The hepatitis B epidemics fluctuates irregularly during the period 2005-2007(APC = 8.7, P = 0.246) and 2015-2020(APC = 1.7, P = 0.290), and there is a downturn (APC=-3.2, 95% CI -5.2 to -1.2, P = 0.006) from 2007 to 2015 in mainland China. The COVID-19 outbreak was found to have a monthly average reduction on the hepatitis B epidemics of 26% (95% CI 18-35%) within the first three months in 2020,17% (95% CI 7.7-26%) within the first six months in 2020, and 10% (95% CI19-22%) all year as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, (probability of causal effect = 96.591%, P = 0.034) and the forecasts showed an upward trend from 2021 to 2025 (annual percentage change = 4.18, 95% CI 4.0 to 4.3, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The COVID-19 has a positive effect on the decline of hepatitis B cases. And the potential of BSTS model to forecast the epidemiological trend of the hepatitis B can be applied in automatic public health policymaking in mainland China.

The impact of non-pharmacologic interventions on respiratory syncytial virus hospitalization during the COVID-19 pandemic: A retrospective study from Saudi Arabia

BACKGROUND

Acute respiratory tract infections (ARTIs) are frequently observed in infants and young children. The dynamics and transmission of ARTIs have been significantly impacted by the global COVID-19 pandemic. This study investigates the change in admission rates of Respiratory Syncytial virus (RSV) in a hospital in Saudi Arabia.

METHODS

The study included hospitalized pediatric patients who underwent RSV testing in three periods: pre-pandemic (2019), during the pandemic (2020-2021), and the immediate post-pandemic (2022). RSV testing was conducted using either PCR or antigen tests.

RESULTS

Between January 2019 to December 2022, out of 927 tested patients, 173 (18.7%) were positive for RSV. The yearly positivity rates were as follows: 42 (35.6%) of 118, 24 (33.3%) of 72, 15 (18.5%) of 81, and 92 (14%) of 656, yearly from 2019 to 2022, respectively (P < 0.00001). Among all cases, 150 (16.2%) required hospitalization, including 94 (62.7%) males and 56 (37.3%) females. The admission rate to the intensive care unit (ICU) was 25 (16.7%), and mechanical ventilation was required for 10 (6.6%) patients. The overall case fatality rate was 0.7%. A Binary logistic regression analysis showed upper respiratory tract symptoms were more common in patients admitted in 2019 compared to 2022 (odd ratio:20.9, 95% CI: 4.2-104.1, P value < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

The study showed that there were differences in RSV infection before and after COVID-19. Understanding how COVID-19 mitigation measures affect RSV transmission can aid in the development of effective prevention and control strategies.

Decreased Seasonal Influenza Rates Detected in a Crowdsourced Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance System During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Seasonal respiratory viruses had lower incidence during their 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons, which overlapped with the COVID-19 pandemic. The widespread implementation of precautionary measures to prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has been seen to also mitigate transmission of seasonal influenza. The COVID-19 pandemic also led to changes in care seeking and access. Participatory surveillance systems have historically captured mild illnesses that are often missed by surveillance systems that rely on encounters with a health care provider for detection.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess if a crowdsourced syndromic surveillance system capable of detecting mild influenza-like illness (ILI) also captured the globally observed decrease in ILI in the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 influenza seasons, concurrent with the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

Flu Near You (FNY) is a web-based participatory syndromic surveillance system that allows participants in the United States to report their health information using a brief weekly survey. Reminder emails are sent to registered FNY participants to report on their symptoms and the symptoms of household members. Guest participants may also report. ILI was defined as fever and sore throat or fever and cough. ILI rates were determined as the number of ILI reports over the total number of reports and assessed for the 2016-2017, 2017-2018, 2018-2019, 2019-2020, and 2020-2021 influenza seasons. Baseline season (2016-2017, 2017-2018, and 2018-2019) rates were compared to the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 influenza seasons. Self-reported influenza diagnosis and vaccination status were captured and assessed as the total number of reported events over the total number of reports submitted. CIs for all proportions were calculated via a 1-sample test of proportions.

RESULTS

ILI was detected in 3.8% (32,239/848,878) of participants in the baseline seasons (2016-2019), 2.58% (7418/287,909) in the 2019-2020 season, and 0.27% (546/201,079) in the 2020-2021 season. Both influenza seasons that overlapped with the COVID-19 pandemic had lower ILI rates than the baseline seasons. ILI decline was observed during the months with widespread implementation of COVID-19 precautions, starting in February 2020. Self-reported influenza diagnoses decreased from early 2020 through the influenza season. Self-reported influenza positivity among ILI cases varied over the observed time period. Self-reported influenza vaccination rates in FNY were high across all observed seasons.

CONCLUSIONS

A decrease in ILI was detected in the crowdsourced FNY surveillance system during the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 influenza seasons, mirroring trends observed in other influenza surveillance systems. Specifically, the months within seasons that overlapped with widespread pandemic precautions showed decreases in ILI and confirmed influenza. Concerns persist regarding respiratory pathogens re-emerging with changes to COVID-19 guidelines. Traditional surveillance is subject to changes in health care behaviors. Systems like FNY are uniquely situated to detect disease across disease severity and care seeking, providing key insights during public health emergencies.

Characteristics of respiratory viruses' circulation through a six-year period (2016-2022) in a pediatric population in Normandy, France, and the impact of COVID-19 pandemic

IMPORTANCE

The report highlights an epidemiological change in the circulation of respiratory viruses in pediatric populations due to strategies adopted against COVID-19 pandemic. COVID-19 has resulted in a significant increase in requests for multiplex respiratory research to identify the virus responsible for the symptoms. The diagnostic needs have increased, and the number of samples analyzed in 2021-2022 is equal to the samples analyzed over the four epidemic periods preceding the pandemic. The report suggests the importance of active surveillance of respiratory viruses' circulation and new recommendations for respiratory virus detection in pediatric patients.

Molecular Epidemiology of Respiratory Syncytial Virus during 2019-2022 and Surviving Genotypes after the COVID-19 Pandemic in Japan

To evaluate the changes in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) collected between 2019 and 2022, we analyzed RSV-A and RSV-B strains from various prefectures in Japan before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. RT-PCR-positive samples collected from children with rapid test positivity at outpatient clinics in 11 prefectures in Japan were sequenced for the ectodomain of the G gene to determine the genotype. Time-aware phylogeographic analyses were performed using the second hypervariable region (HVR) of the G gene from 2012 to 2022. Of 967 samples, 739 (76.4%) were found to be RSV-positive using RT-PCR. RSV peaked in September 2019 but was not detected in 2020, except in Okinawa. Nationwide epidemics occurred with peaks in July 2021 and 2022. The genotype remained the same, ON1 for RSV-A and BA9 for RSV-B during 2019-2022. Phylogeographic analysis of HVR revealed that at least seven clusters of RSV-A had circulated previously but decreased to two clusters after the pandemic, whereas RSV-B had a single monophyletic cluster over the 10 years. Both RSV-A and RSV-B were transferred from Okinawa into other prefectures after the pandemic. The RSV epidemic was suppressed due to pandemic restrictions; however, pre-pandemic genotypes spread nationwide after the pandemic.

Modeling the impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa

Background

The South African government employed various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Surveillance data from South Africa indicates reduced circulation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) throughout the 2020-2021 seasons. Here, we use a mechanistic transmission model to project the rebound of RSV in the two subsequent seasons.

Methods

We fit an age-structured epidemiological model to hospitalization data from national RSV surveillance in South Africa, allowing for time-varying reduction in RSV transmission during periods of COVID-19 circulation. We apply the model to project the rebound of RSV in the 2022 and 2023 seasons.

Results

We projected an early and intense outbreak of RSV in April 2022, with an age shift to older infants (6-23 months old) experiencing a larger portion of severe disease burden than typical. In March 2022, government alerts were issued to prepare the hospital system for this potentially intense outbreak. We then assess the 2022 predictions and project the 2023 season. Model predictions for 2023 indicate that RSV activity has not fully returned to normal, with a projected early and moderately intense wave. We estimate that NPIs reduced RSV transmission between 15% and 50% during periods of COVID-19 circulation.

Conclusions

A wide range of NPIs impacted the dynamics of the RSV outbreaks throughout 2020-2023 in regard to timing, magnitude, and age structure, with important implications in a low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) setting where RSV interventions remain limited. More efforts should focus on adapting RSV models to LMIC data to project the impact of upcoming medical interventions for this disease.

Climate-dependent effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 mitigation

Environmental factors have a significant impact on the transmission of infectious diseases. Existing results show that the novel coronavirus can persist outside the host. We propose a susceptible-exposed-presymptomatic-infectious-asymptomatic-recovered-susceptible (SEPIARS) model with a vaccination compartment and indirect incidence to explore the effect of environmental conditions, temperature and humidity, on the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Using climate data and daily confirmed cases data in two Canadian cities with different atmospheric conditions, we evaluate the mortality rates of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and further estimate the transmission rates by the inverse method, respectively. The numerical results show that high temperature or humidity can be helpful in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 during the warm summer months. Our findings verify that nonpharmaceutical interventions are less effective if the virus can persist for a long time on surfaces. Based on climate data, we can forecast the transmission rate and the infection cases up to four weeks in the future by a generalized boosting machine learning model.

Co-evolution of immunity and seasonal influenza viruses

Seasonal influenza viruses cause recurring global epidemics by continually evolving to escape host immunity. The viral constraints and host immune responses that limit and drive the evolution of these viruses are increasingly well understood. However, it remains unclear how most of these advances improve the capacity to reduce the impact of seasonal influenza viruses on human health. In this Review, we synthesize recent progress made in understanding the interplay between the evolution of immunity induced by previous infections or vaccination and the evolution of seasonal influenza viruses driven by the heterogeneous accumulation of antibody-mediated immunity in humans. We discuss the functional constraints that limit the evolution of the viruses, the within-host evolutionary processes that drive the emergence of new virus variants, as well as current and prospective options for influenza virus control, including the viral and immunological barriers that must be overcome to improve the effectiveness of vaccines and antiviral drugs.

Epidemiology of RSV Bronchiolitis Among Young Children in Central New York Before and After the Onset of the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis is the leading cause of hospitalizations among infants in the United States. Unpredictability in RSV seasonality has occurred following the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Local surveillance networks can enhance the ability to appropriately time prophylaxis when exposure risk is highest.

METHODS

A retrospective, cohort study was conducted to describe the epidemiologic patterns of RSV disease among outpatient, emergency department and inpatient encounters in children <5 years in Central New York before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Local data were collected from October 2015 to January 2023 and compared to state-level data. Linear regression models were used to identify clinical and sociodemographic differences before and after the pandemic.

RESULTS

Local variation in RSV seasonality was noted prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, however highly atypical circulation patterns appeared in the post-COVID-19 era. Since March 2020, patterns for local and state-defined RSV seasons have remained atypical (local season onset in 2021: week 27 and 2022: week 27; state season onset in 2021: week 31 and 2022: week 38). After adjusting for increases in testing, RSV bronchiolitis cases were not significantly different during pre- and post-pandemic eras. In comparison to the 2021 bronchiolitis season, the 2022 season had a higher proportion of RSV cases despite decreased testing.

CONCLUSIONS

Temporal patterns for RSV have shifted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Local surveillance networks may be advantageous in trending community-level RSV activity to optimize prophylaxis administration. Changes in RSV testing patterns occurred throughout the study period and should be accounted for when describing infant and childhood RSV disease.

Isolation may select for earlier and higher peak viral load but shorter duration in SARS-CoV-2 evolution

During the COVID-19 pandemic, human behavior change as a result of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as isolation may have induced directional selection for viral evolution. By combining previously published empirical clinical data analysis and multi-level mathematical modeling, we find that the SARS-CoV-2 variants selected for as the virus evolved from the pre-Alpha to the Delta variant had earlier and higher peak in viral load dynamics but a shorter duration of infection. Selection for increased transmissibility shapes the viral load dynamics, and the isolation measure is likely to be a driver of these evolutionary transitions. In addition, we show that a decreased incubation period and an increased proportion of asymptomatic infection are also positively selected for as SARS-CoV-2 mutated to adapt to human behavior (i.e., Omicron variants). The quantitative information and predictions we present here can guide future responses in the potential arms race between pandemic interventions and viral evolution.

The changing pattern of common respiratory viruses among children from 2018 to 2021 in Wuhan, China

BACKGROUND

Acute respiratory infections in children are a global public health challenge. Owing to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions, including patient isolation, social distancing, hand washing, and mask wearing, have been widely implemented, impacting the transmission of common respiratory viruses. The aim of this study was to clarify the epidemiological features of respiratory viruses in children less than 14 years of age in Wuhan before and after COVID-19.

METHODS

Respiratory specimens were collected from patients aged < 14 years at two hospitals in Wuhan, China, from January 2018 to December 2021. Seven respiratory viruses were identified using an immunofluorescence assay. Pathogen profiles and seasonality were analysed.

RESULTS

The number of visits and virus detection rate decreased dramatically after February 2020. The respiratory virus detection rate peaked in January and December and decreased dramatically in February and August. The detection rate was lower in 2021 than in 2018 and 2019. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was identified as the leading pathogen in children aged < 1 year and 1-4 years before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. In children aged 5-14 years, influenza virus was detected at the highest rate before, and RSV after, the COVID-19 pandemic. RSV was the most common virus in coinfections.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed the epidemiological patterns of common respiratory viruses from 2018 to 2021. The spectrum of pathogens involved in paediatric respiratory infections had partly changed. Non-pharmaceutical interventions resulted in fewer opportunities for the spread of common viruses but also in an "immunity debt" that could have negative consequences when the pandemic is under control in Wuhan.

Syndromic surveillance performance in Canada throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, March 1, 2020 to March 4, 2023

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted the need for robust surveillance of respiratory viruses. Syndromic surveillance continues to be an important surveillance component recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). While FluWatchers, Canada's syndromic surveillance system, has been in place since 2015, the COVID-19 pandemic provided a valuable opportunity to expand the program's scope and underlying technology infrastructure. Following some structural changes to FluWatchers syndromic questionnaire, participants are now able to contribute valuable data to the non-specific surveillance of respiratory virus activity across Canada. This article examines the performance of FluWatchers' syndromic surveillance over the three years of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada. More specifically, this article examines FluWatchers' performance with respect to the correlation between the FluWatchers influenza-like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infection (ARI) indicators and total respiratory virus detections (RVDs) in Canada, including influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), and other respiratory viruses.

American Society of Echocardiography COVID-19 Statement Update: Lessons Learned and Preparation for Future Pandemics

The COVID-19 pandemic has evolved since the publication of the initial American Society of Echocardiography (ASE) statements providing guidance to echocardiography laboratories. In light of new developments, the ASE convened a diverse, expert writing group to address the current state of the COVID-19 pandemic and to apply lessons learned to echocardiography laboratory operations in future pandemics. This statement addresses important areas specifically impacted by the current and future pandemics: (1) indications for echocardiography, (2) application of echocardiographic services in a pandemic, (3) infection/transmission mitigation strategies, (4) role of cardiac point-of-care ultrasound/critical care echocardiography, and (5) training in echocardiography.

Prevalence and associated outcomes of coinfection between SARS-CoV-2 and influenza: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the prevalence of influenza coinfection in COVID-19 patients and investigate its association with severe clinical outcomes.

METHODS

We systematically searched the Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, Embase, The Cochrane Library, and CNKI for studies published between January 01, 2020, and May 31, 2023. Meta-analysis was performed to estimate the pooled prevalence of coinfection and the impact on clinical outcomes. Systematic review registered in PROSPERO (CRD42023423113).

RESULTS

A total of 95 studies involving 62,107 COVID-19 patients were included. The pooled prevalence of coinfection with influenza virus was 2.45% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.67-3.58%), with a high proportion of influenza A. Compared with mono-infected patients (COVID-19 only), the odds ratio (OR) for severe outcomes (including intensive care unit admission [OR = 2.20, 95% CI: 1.68-2.87, P < 0.001], mechanical ventilation support [OR = 2.73, 95% CI: 1.46-5.10, P = 0.002], and mortality [OR = 2.92, 95% CI: 1.16-7.30, P = 0.022]) was significantly higher among patients coinfected influenza A.

CONCLUSION

Although the prevalence of coinfection is low, coinfected patients are at higher risk of severe outcomes. Enhanced identification of both viruses, as well as individualized treatment protocols for coinfection, are recommended to reduce the occurrence of serious disease outcomes in the future.

Dynamics in a behavioral-epidemiological model for individual adherence to a nonpharmaceutical intervention

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has highlighted the importance of behavioral drivers in epidemic dynamics. With the relaxation of mandated nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) formerly in place to decrease transmission, such as mask-wearing or social distancing, adherence to an NPI is now the result of individual decision-making. To study these coupled dynamics, we embed a game-theoretic model for individual NPI adherence within an epidemiological model. When the disease is endemic, we find that our model has multiple (but none concurrently stable) equilibria: one each with zero, complete, or partial NPI adherence. Surprisingly, for the equilibrium with partial NPI adherence, the number of infections is independent of the transmission rate. Therefore, in that regime, a change in the rate of pathogen transmission, e.g., due to another (mandated) NPI or a new variant, has no effect on endemic infection levels. On the other hand, we show that vaccination successfully decreases endemic infection levels, and, unexpectedly, also reduces the number of susceptibles at equilibrium when there is partial adherence. From a game-theoretic perspective, we find that highly effective NPIs lead at most to partial adherence. As this effectiveness decreases, partially effective NPIs initially lead to increases in population-level adherence, especially if the risk is high enough. However, a completely ineffective NPI results in no adherence. Furthermore, we identify parameter regions where the individual incentives may not align with those of society as a whole. Overall, our findings illustrate complexities that can arise due to behavioral-epidemiological feedback and suggest appropriate measures to avoid more pessimistic population-level outcomes.

Outbreak of Invasive Group A Streptococcus in Children-Colorado, October 2022-April 2023

BACKGROUND

In the fall of 2022, we observed a sharp rise in pediatric Invasive Group A Streptococcus (iGAS) hospitalizations in Colorado. We compared the epidemiology, clinical features, and patient outcomes in this outbreak to prior years.

METHODS

Between October 2022 and April 2023, we prospectively identified and reviewed iGAS cases in hospitalized pediatric patients at Children's Hospital Colorado. Using laboratory specimen records, we also retrospectively compared the number of patients with sterile site GAS-positive cultures across three time periods: pre-COVID-19 (January 2015-March 2020), height of COVID-19 pandemic (April 2020-September 2022), and outbreak (October 2022-April 2023).

RESULTS

Among 96 prospectively identified iGAS cases, median age was 5.7 years old; 66% were male, 70% previously healthy, 39% required critical care, and four patients died. Almost 60% had associated respiratory viral symptoms, 10% had toxic shock syndrome, and 4% had necrotizing fasciitis. Leukopenia, bandemia, and higher C-reactive protein values were laboratory findings associated with need for critical care. There were significantly more cases during the outbreak (9.9/month outbreak vs 3.9/month pre-pandemic vs 1.3/month pandemic), including more cases with pneumonia (28% outbreak vs 15% pre-pandemic vs 0% pandemic) and multifocal disease (17% outbreak vs 3% pre-pandemic vs 0% pandemic), P < .001 for all.

CONCLUSIONS

Outbreak case numbers were almost triple the pre-pandemic baseline. The high percentage of cases with associated viral symptoms suggests a link to coinciding surges in respiratory viruses during this time. Invasive GAS can be severe and evolve rapidly; clinical and laboratory features may help in earlier identification of critically ill children.

Association of COVID-19 with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections in children aged 0-5 years in the USA in 2022: a multicentre retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether COVID-19 infection was associated with increased risk for incident respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infections and associated diseases among young children that might have contributed to the 2022 surge of severe paediatric RSV cases in the USA.

DESIGN

This is a retrospective population-based cohort study. Five outcomes were examined, including overall RSV infection, positive lab test-confirmed RSV infection, clinically diagnosed RSV diseases, RSV-associated bronchiolitis and unspecified bronchiolitis. Risk ratio (RR) and 95% CI of the outcomes that occurred during the 2022 and 2021 RSV seasons were calculated by comparing propensity-score matched cohorts.

SETTING

Nationwide multicentre database of electronic health records (EHRs) of 61.4 million patients in the USA including 1.7 million children 0-5 years of age, which was accessed through TriNetX Analytics that provides web-based and secure access to patient EHR data from hospitals, primary care and specialty treatment providers.

PARTICIPANTS

The study population consisted of 228 940 children of 0-5 years with no prior RSV infection who had medical encounters in October 2022. Findings were replicated in a separate study population of 370 919 children of 0-5 years with no prior RSV infection who had medical encounters in July 2021-August 2021 during a non-overlapping time period.

RESULTS

For the 2022 study population (average age 2.4 years, 46.8% girls, 61% white, 16% black), the risk for incident RSV infection during October 2022-December 2022 was 6.40% for children with prior COVID-19 infection, higher than 4.30% for the matched children without COVID-19 (RR 1.40, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.55); and among children aged 0-1 year, the overall risk was 7.90% for those with prior COVID-19 infection, higher than 5.64% for matched children without (RR 1.40, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.62). For the 2021 study population (average age 2.2 years, 46% girls, 57% white, 20% black), the risk for incident RSV infection during July 2021-December 2021 was 4.85% for children with prior COVID-19 infection, higher than 3.68% for the matched children without COVID-19 (RR 1.32, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.56); and 7.30% for children aged 0-1 year with prior COVID-19 infection, higher than 4.98% for matched children without (RR 1.47, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.82).

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 was associated with a significantly increased risk for RSV infections among children aged 0-5 years in 2022. Similar findings were replicated for a study population of children aged 0-5 years in 2021. Our findings suggest that COVID-19 contributed to the 2022 surge of RSV cases in young children through the large buildup of COVID-19-infected children and the potential long-term adverse effects of COVID-19 on the immune and respiratory system.

Increased population susceptibility to seasonal influenza during the COVID-19 pandemic in China and the United States

To the best of our knowledge, no previous study has quantitatively estimated the dynamics and cumulative susceptibility to influenza infections after the widespread lifting of COVID-19 public health measures. We constructed an imitated stochastic susceptible-infected-removed model using particle-filtered Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the time-dependent reproduction number of influenza based on influenza surveillance data in southern China, northern China, and the United States during the 2022-2023 season. We compared these estimates to those from 2011 to 2019 seasons without strong social distancing interventions to determine cumulative susceptibility during COVID-19 restrictions. Compared to the 2011-2019 seasons without a strong intervention with social measures, the 2022-2023 influenza season length was 45.0%, 47.1%, and 57.1% shorter in southern China, northern China, and the United States, respectively, corresponding to an 140.1%, 74.8%, and 50.9% increase in scale of influenza infections, and a 60.3%, 72.9%, and 45.1% increase in population susceptibility to influenza. Large and high-intensity influenza epidemics occurred in China and the United States in 2022-2023. Population susceptibility increased in 2019-2022, especially in China. We recommend promoting influenza vaccination, taking personal prevention actions on at-risk populations, and monitoring changes in the dynamic levels of influenza and other respiratory infections to prevent potential outbreaks in the coming influenza season.